Guru's Golden Picks: Arena Week 2: 5*!

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

YTD: 4-2
Net: +8.39 Units

Immediately... do this now before the books raise this number where it should be....

Dallas at New York over 104.5 (5 units -105): First 5 unit play of the year. I think this number is ridiuclously low (like, at least 7 points too low). Dallas proved last week that it can drop 60 whenever it wants. Granted, I still believe that Clint Stoener is going to come back to earth, this probably won't be the week in which he does it. New York has one of the quickest strike offenses in the Arena Football League, led by QB Aaron Garcia. When he's on, no one can stop him. The Dragons are going to sorely miss Donvidus Franklin (Columbus) as their defensive specialist, and Jerry Sharp as a pash rusher. Dallas attempted more throws over 20 yards than anyone else did last week, and I expect that to continue. Will Pettis should have another nice day. Aaron Garcia will throw for at least 6 scores. I believe someone's ticking 70 in this one. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see this get to around 140. 104.5 is really generous, and won't last. Get this line before everyone else pounds it.

More picks to come later on tonight.

--AFLGuru

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Spread just jumped a point... I think Pinnacle is listening to me closely... This play is good at 105.5 just as well. As I said, anything under about 110 is still an over play.

--AFLGuru

Grogan · Jan 31, 2005

I see it there at 106.5 already....man, that's scary.......

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Okay, Pinnacle is listening closely... it's now 106.5... Keep going up until 110. For record keeping purposes here, the number I'm using is 104.5.

Adding: Dallas @ New York (-2... whoops, just went to -2.5... we'll use 2.5... 3 units -105): To be honest with you, I got this line at -1, but it's currently -2... -2.5... and rising, so we'll go with that. New York is a damn good home squad, having won some very impressive home games over the years with Aaron Garcia at quarterback. I expect some early rust on the Dragons, as this is their opener. But Dallas should be all out of gas after the overtime thriller against Chicago. Magic can only strike so many times. Remember, I took under 6 wins for this team. Nice story beating Chicago, but after the first quarter, they got outplayed. Lots of points in this one. Something like a 76-60 final wouldn't be out of the question.

Damn... just as typing this, the o/u jacked up to 107

Adding: Philadelphia @ Chicago (+7.5 4 units -108): Another terrible line set by Vegas. Philadelphia is good. There's no doubt that Tony Graziani is worth a ton of wins to this team. But to go on the road where Chicago is nearly unbeatable is outrageous. Graziani looked human, but I promise you, if he throws 3 picks against Chicago, they'll lose this game by a ton. I had this game tabbed at a pick 'em... A PICK 'EM!!! Thanks for the generous 7.5 point head start, Vegas. Raymond Philyaw will not let this team get off to an 0-2 start, and I'm predicting that they're gonna win this game outright!

More insight on the games later...

Cheers to the GREAT looking card, particularly Sunday.
--AFLGuru:toast:

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Yeah Grogan, the man is watching me very closely after last week... apparently very, very closely. I made the bet at 104.5 and it jumped a point. I posted it here, it jumped another point... in the time it took me to write the last post, it jumped another point... sorry to those of you that are gonna need way more than me to win this one.

FourPunchCombo · Jan 31, 2005

The MAN is watching....there has got to be another way for you to post your picks. DAMN!!!

DeathEatsaCracker · Jan 31, 2005

Though I seriously doubt the books are watching your threads and moving the lines based on your picks, I'm jumping on board early. 68% last year, a 4-2 start this year, and damn good write-ups are reason enough to start betting these games light and see where it goes.

Best of luck to you this season. Let's make some money!

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Some more stats backing up the Dallas-New York game... I'll say this first.... the game last year was a craptastic 44-20 game at Dallas... that kinda scares me... but nonetheless... (60-56 the year before!)

New York returns the majority of the offense that led them to a load of points last year. Their last 4 games of the season averaged 110 ppg, and one of those opponents was Orlando. They also posted huge numbers against Philadelphia (118), Colorado (101), and Columbus twice (120 and 103). New York didn't score less than 50 points in any game last year at home, and got to at least 58 in 4 of their last 5 home games.

Dallas returns the same coaching staff and many of the same offensive role players, just with a different QB (in Clint Stoerner). Dallas' last 3 games dating back to last season averaged 123.5 ppg. Though they went through a stretch where they couldn't score, they also had combined point totals against Arizona (119), Orlando (113), and San Jose (112) that were well over this number. Common bond? They're 2-4 SU in those games, and as everyone saw last week, Dallas played Chicago as tough as they could and still probably should have lost the game. It's proven that Dallas plays to the level of their competition in terms of points. Chicago. Playoff team this year in all likelihood. 126 points. Tampa last year was a playoff team: 116. Orlando, playoff team: 113. Arizona, Arena Bowl runner up and #1 seed: 119.

All signs point to a massive shoot out in this one.

And in the Philly-Chicago game...

There are very few trends to follow on Philly, as they really haven't played any amount of games yet with Graziani. I just know that Graziani's receivers aren't nearly as good as they were in Los Angeles, and perhaps THAT is a factor in his 3 interception game against lowly Austin. Chicago's defense will get pressure on him, taking the blueprint of Orlando and Arizona, even without all-world lineman James Baron at the nose tackle. John Moyer is simply too fast for anyone on the Soul's front. Again, there's no doubt that Philly is at least 2 wins better this year with Graziani at the helm, but the rest of the components are still there from last year's team that struggled all year.

Trends: Chicago only lost back to back games once all of last season, and those were to Los Angeles and San Jose. Los Angeles was their only home loss last year to a team still in existence (they lost to Detroit last year on an absolutely freakish play in the end zone with no time left), and that includes an absolute thrashing of Orlando, who turned out pretty good. 3 times they got beat last year by more than this number, one of which being the afformentioned Los Angeles game, and another being the last game of the season against a solid Colorado team. Not that I'm saying that this Philly team isn't as good as those two teams, but this game isn't in Colorado. And this Philly team I estimate to be worse than last year's Los Angeles team, though clearly Vegas sees otherwise. I didn't like what I saw from that Philly team last week in Austin, making far too many mistakes to win games. Chicago isn't going to fall down 23-0 like Austin did... or like they did to Dallas... again, and the crowd alone should keep this one close or lead to victory... Philly's not running the table. Chicago was a 6 point dog AT San Jose last year... They lost by 12. Last year's San Jose team was better than this year's Philly team... and the game's not in San Jose or Philly, it's in Chicago.

Current lines: Chicago +6.5 (+100), New York -3.5 (-102), over 108.5 (-105)

All are still plays. Consider making the New York play only 2 units if you're not in on the low number yet.
--AFLGuru:toast:

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

FourPunch--

To be honest with you, there's so little money coming in on these games that once anyone bets any sort of significant money on the games the lines are gonna move. I'll tell you flat out that a unit to me is probably much smaller than yours or anyone elses on here. However, my miniscule amount of money to them was enough to send the lines flying. Once someone dropped the maximum $500 on the over, which I'm sure SOMEONE did, they had to move that line really fast. Doesn't matter whether I send out emails, message boards, or what have you. The instant there's like $1000 on one line, it's gonna jump all over the place. It's gonna be first come, first serve all year. Best I can do. I'll try reorganizing my thoughts for late comers later on in the week in terms of what to play and how much to play on it. For now, just reference the last post... But for record-keeping purposes on this board, the bold numbers are the ones I'm going with. Remember, an over/under in the AFL isn't necessarily so hard. Stats show that games with o/us over 100 typically get there by at least 10, or miss by at least 10 on average. That's why I picked a TD over the o/u, 110, as the number to lower the units on. I'd play it up to about 112.5, though I still believe this game could reach 140.
--AFLGuru:toast:

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Log of betting in last hour and a half...

12:30: get home and see opening lines
12:40: stop double taking when I see o/u of 104.5 in the NY-Dallas game
12:45: bet NY-Dallas over 104.5
12:55: post here about the game
1:00: stop double taking when I see that New York is -1 and Chicago is getting 7.5 points at home
1:05: bet NY -1 and Chicago +7.5
1:13: post here about games
1:17: curse at how fast these lines moved... I really want y'all to get the best lines possible too
1:30-2:00: view stats supporting games for writeups
2:06: post interesting stats regarding the games
2:31: New York is -3.5, o/u is 109, and Chicago is +6.5

Sorry about all of this line movement guys. I'll try my best to do these picks Monday afternoons between 12:00 and 1:00 for glaring lines, and then have some others later in the week. I need to finish analyzing yesterday's games before I jump into some of these other ones. Expect a few smaller plays to be posted tomorrow around this time. Let's do our best to beat the books before they can catch up! Vegas: :finger: ... the one thing I really miss about SportsInteraction... shaved apes ran that sportsbook... at least Pinnacle is run by humans... but they're too damn good with their line movements.

--AFLGuru:toast:

FourPunchCombo · Jan 31, 2005

Youre right. Boxing is the same way. Any significant bet will change the line a few points. My buddy who post here is really sharp and he actually changes the line once he bets.

olddog · Jan 31, 2005

Line Movement

I also loved and got Chico +7.5 . Its now Phila -2.5 Amazing.

NY is now -5 w/ a total of 110.

I've always said the educated bettor is way ahead of the linesmaker during the early going of minor sports seasons. Study and make sizeable bets early as the linesmaker catches up quickly.

If Pinny gets killed on these bets, I doubt we'll see AFL line posted next Monday.

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Holy crap... I've been gone two damn hours and the lines are all over the place...

Alright, here's what I'll say.

Keep playing the over. 110.5 is still a solid number. Anything up to 112.5 is solid. After that it starts getting iffy. NOT 5 units though... 4 is probably appropriate. I still believe this game reaches 120 easy. DO NOT play New York -5, at least not too hard. Too much. Just too much. If you want to buy it down to -2.5 and pay juice, that's a good idea. If not, please just lay off or bet the moneyline. The Chicago line really pisses me off. My suggestion would be to wait and bet the game on the moneyline, but the problem with that is that the game might go off at a pick 'em. I still believe Chicago is gonna win this game.

Fact of the matter says Pinny botched this one big time, and the ones of us that got on it early were lucky. So sorry to those of you that didn't get in on time. For board purposes, I'm going to count the bold numbers yet again. Hopefully none of them will matter.

I knew one good week would spawn a bunch of followers, but I think this is getting a wee ridiculous.

--AFLGuru:toast:

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Lol... Bet365 is gonna offer live betting on the Georgia-Los Angeles game this week for some unknown reason... but hell, whoever says this isn't one of the fastest growing sports in the entire world is nuts. Even the British bookies are getting into this.

Juice still rising on New York... stop betting on New York... This line should come back down. If it doesn't, it's another mistake by Pinnacle. It should settle at NY -3.5. Don't settle for anything less.

--AFLGuru:toast:

BIGWave · Jan 31, 2005

Which book are you using?

I have no lines available at either of the books I have accounts with.
Thanks.

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Big Wave--

My book of choice for the most part in Pinnacle. They give me the earliest lines with the most options at the lowest juice rate around. I suggest anyone into gambling to open up a Pinny account. But the odds right now are awfully crappy in relation to earlier today when I got them.

Currently: Chicago is +2 from +7.5 before, the over/under in the New York/Dallas game is 111 from 104.5 before, and New York is -5 where they were -1 before.

--AFLGuru:toast:

KennyB · Jan 31, 2005

I was shocked to see Pinnacle post the Arena lines so early. I got down on San Jose -6', it is now -7. Did some teasers too. Used Colorado, San Jose, San Jose Over, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Nashville.

Thanks for the Chicago Heads up. Got it before it dropped. I can't believe how much Pinnacle has already moved the lines on some of these games.

AFLGuru · Jan 31, 2005

Like it all KennyB! Nice looking card you've got. Weary to take San Jose again after they bit me in the ass last week as my only real blemish. Nashville is gonna be a no-play for me because I think highly of that New Orleans team. Lots of points very possible in San Jose. Chicago is always a steal at home adding 7.5 points, especially to the outrageous, already teased total as I would put it. Everyone's solid against the Rampage, but be weary that they're gonna win a few times, and probably cover more often than not as the numbers are ridiculously high. We'll see as the year goes on.

--AFLGuru

BIGWave · Jan 31, 2005

Thanks for the response, AFL.....

Called my book - lines are up Thursday!!!!!!! Gross.......
Nice early calls though.......you certainly have the early value.

Thanks again for your time. Will consider a Pinnacle account from your recommendation. :103631605