This ended up being more difficult than it should have been thanks to Tampa picking off Kaleo in the end zone.... but a couple plays later, Tampa put us back in the end zone and back into the win column. Really an easy 2nd half play.
Saturday Card
Tampa @ LA over 52.5 2nd half W (+2.86 units)
Grand Rapids (+9 and ml) @ Philadelphia L (-5 units)
Columbus (+10.5 and ml) vs. New York W (+2.36 units)
Nashville (+6.5) vs. Arizona L (-5 units)
Arizona/Nashville under 99.5 W (+1.90 units)
Added to yesterday....
Colorado (+4.5) vs. Dallas W (+2.86 units)
Orlando vs. Austin over 97.5 L (-2.5 units)
Clay Rush successful FG (+8.5 yards) vs. longest TD pass W (+2.78 units)
Colorado (+45 NET passing yards) vs. Dallas W (+1.39 units)
Record: 6-3 (+1.65 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 26-11
Against that same closing line: 23-13-1
Sides Record: 17-12 (+18.95 units)
Totals Record: 19-10 (+24.03 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 5-7 (-3.3 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-3 (+1.69 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 45-35 (56.25%)
Net: +41.93 units
Units Wagered: 228 units
Units Won: 41.93 units
Net %: 18.39% profit per unit wagered
Saturday Card
Tampa @ LA over 52.5 2nd half W (+2.86 units)
Grand Rapids (+9 and ml) @ Philadelphia L (-5 units)
Columbus (+10.5 and ml) vs. New York W (+2.36 units)
Nashville (+6.5) vs. Arizona L (-5 units)
Arizona/Nashville under 99.5 W (+1.90 units)
Added to yesterday....
Colorado (+4.5) vs. Dallas W (+2.86 units)
Orlando vs. Austin over 97.5 L (-2.5 units)
Clay Rush successful FG (+8.5 yards) vs. longest TD pass W (+2.78 units)
Colorado (+45 NET passing yards) vs. Dallas W (+1.39 units)
Record: 6-3 (+1.65 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 26-11
Against that same closing line: 23-13-1
Sides Record: 17-12 (+18.95 units)
Totals Record: 19-10 (+24.03 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 5-7 (-3.3 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 3-3 (+1.69 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 45-35 (56.25%)
Net: +41.93 units
Units Wagered: 228 units
Units Won: 41.93 units
Net %: 18.39% profit per unit wagered
Monday Night Football Card!
Las Vegas (+6) vs. San Jose (4 units -105)
Adding: Will more than 2.5 players throw a pass? YES (1/2 unit +304): Just a percentage play here. If the game's a blow out, we win. If a QB gets hurt, we win. If there's a trick play, we win. If there's a fake FG, we win. Odds have it we're gonna lose, but in more than 1 out of 4 games, especially of this magnitude, we'll see someone pull something tricky out of their hats.
Las Vegas (+6) vs. San Jose (4 units -105)
Adding: Will more than 2.5 players throw a pass? YES (1/2 unit +304): Just a percentage play here. If the game's a blow out, we win. If a QB gets hurt, we win. If there's a trick play, we win. If there's a fake FG, we win. Odds have it we're gonna lose, but in more than 1 out of 4 games, especially of this magnitude, we'll see someone pull something tricky out of their hats.
Pinny really can't move this line. If they do, they're gonna get no pounded and probably lose a boat load. They'd almost certainly rather try to keep the same price and claim the money off of it. If they move it under +250, it'd be nuts. But don't "expect" the money to cash. This is one of those plays that is going to make my percentage record look at bit worse... that's why tonight when I do the recap I'm going to do a total plays percentage, which is what I have now, and a "sides + totals" more or less "ATS" figure. As far as the 8.5 points... I just don't know. Just not real comfortable taking this bet when I believe that Vegas is gonna kill San Jose... I really do think they're gonna win this game comfortably. So for now, I pass unless I see something otherwise I like going into the game.
Degenerate... I'd lean under, but it's no more than a lean. I won't play it, that's for sure. I'd rather put my money into LV moneyline...
Speaking of which, on my card for tonight, I left that out...
Vegas ml (+139 1/2 unit)
Degenerate... I'd lean under, but it's no more than a lean. I won't play it, that's for sure. I'd rather put my money into LV moneyline...
Speaking of which, on my card for tonight, I left that out...
Vegas ml (+139 1/2 unit)
Yeah, I noticed. The steam here has been interesting to say the least. I'd rather let it pan out and find out who was right in this case. Steaming numbers have been really hit and miss when the steam starts during or after Thursday morning, particularly the closer to kickoff the game gets. If you're a fan of the game as a whole though, no bets needed for this to be a great game. Sit back and enjoy this one gentlemen. Should be a great game.
Back around game time.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Back around game time.
--AFLGuru:toast:
arty:
