Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 9

[AFLGuru]

Thread starter... just a note that the last few weeks have been insanely profitable and I've only had 1 week where I lost more than a unit... so tread lightly, because it's almost sure to be coming soon. This isn't a card I love without looking at the lines, but I'm sure we'll have a couple real screwy lines to jump in a couple hours.

Once again, I'll issue some warnings about games that you think I might jump that I know I won't... Don't look for New York to be on my card unless the number is ridiculous despite the fact that I've ridden the fade-Columbus train all season. Aside from that, I don't see any "unbettable" games, but there will certainly be some dogs on my card this weekend that I usually stay away from. I think this could be the week the dogs start barking again, since they've had some lackluster weeks. Gotta see who's opening up the dog in some of these games, though... For example, is Colorado favored at Dallas? Georgia favored at New Orleans? Just some interesting questions that will be answered in a couple hours. Back in a bit.

YTD
Against the opening line: 23-8
Against that same closing line: 20-10-1

Sides Record: 15-10 (+23.73 units)
Totals Record: 18-9 (+24.63 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 4-7 (-6.16 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 1-3 (-2.48 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 39-32 (54.93%)
Net: +40.28 units

Units Wagered: 194.5 units
Units Won: 40.28 units
Net %: 20.71% profit per unit wagered

 

[MysticMan]

By the looks of things I'd say you know your stuff when it comes to indoor football my friend. No matter what sport you're in a record such as what yours currently stands at is nothing but solid and respectable in my book. Your nickname is well earned it seems. Good luck to you on all your games for this upcoming week of action.

MysticMan​

 

[AFLGuru]

It's the only sport I seriously cap... better be good at it... lol

 

[AFLGuru]

Game of the week...

Nashville (+6.5) vs. Arizona 5 units -101

Others...

Colorado +4.5 3 units -105
Columbus +10.5 3 units -105
Grand Rapids +9 4 units -105
Las Vegas +6 4 units -105
Arizona/Nashville under 99.5 2 units -105

 

[AFLGuru]

Dogs are gonna be barking this week... home dogs cover more often than it looks... and with so many of them on the board, this can be a GREAT card for us sides-wise.... Not really a total I'm crazy about short of Arz/Nash... previews coming...

 

[scottw]

Only play I made was 1 unit on LV +9. Real tough this week, as evidenced by the fact that we have seen no earth-shattering 6 point moves like usual. The 118 on PHL is the highest total I have seen. I saw a few 117s two years ago.

I'm looking at AZ over maybe, as the new OC in NAS will have Murray, Fleshman, and McGriff, and maybe Coleman and Hillery too. And AZ can score but can't get stops. Not sure on it yet though.

Need OLY to come through tomorrow with some ridiculous numbers.

 

[AFLGuru]

Friday night...

Colorado (+4.5) @ Dallas (3 units -105): Currently +3, good til a pick or so... (anything under -2.5 is usually good enough)... Interesting game between two very solid ball clubs. Dallas has played some great ball of late, beating some pretty solid ball clubs. But let's remember the New Orleans game at home. Yes, Dallas played a very close game with New Orleans, but ultimately they didn't pull it out. The likelihood says this one's gonna be close the whole way... And in a game like this, I'll take the road team and the points, because this one can go either way. Not a bit of a higher play because of the small amount of points involved. I really thought Colorado was opening a favorite in this game, which would have provoked me to take Dallas... But these are the breaks. And I said more than 3 either way and I'll take the dog.

 

[AFLGuru]

Saturday card...

Columbus (+10.5) vs. New York (3 units -105): Currently +8... good til about +4.5 or +5. Columbus comes into this one having actually played a half way decent game against Colorado before the very end. They had us covered to be honest with you. Ryan Vena made some critical mistakes late in the game that cost them a shot at winning. Reasoning for this bet... No home team... and I mean it... No home team in the AFL should be getting more than a 10 point head start. This is a ludicrous number. If Philly can beat Tampa, Columbus can certainly beat New York, a team that has struggled on the road all season long. Called the big upset last week of Austin beating New York, and it really wouldn't surprise me if this one turns up the same way... Aaron Garcia should struggle with this defense that surprisingly, has some decent numbers this year. Under is a tempt, but I'd rather have the points on my side than worry about a total here. Gonna be a lot closer than the experts think.

Grand Rapids (+9) @ Philadelphia (4 units -105): Currently +7.5... good til about +3.5... Okay, this one pains me as well. But this is just about as bad of a spot as Philly can possibly be in. I really think... and I mean this... really believe it... that Grand Rapids is winning this game outright. Philadelphia comes off of the huge win against Tampa to quasi put them back in the playoff race. But we all know that this team is still really overrated because of Graziani, and I think this is a spot that Bishop can exploit. GR has looked real good of late, giving San Jose a game until late and really had Chicago beat. A short trip for a team that realistically can still make the playoffs. Chris Jackson will light up Philly for a ton of scores... and again, I really like Grand Rapids' chances of pulling the upset this week. Rampage are one of the louder barking dogs of late.

Arizona/Nashville under 99.5 (2 units -105): Currently 97.5... I had tabbed at 86-87. Nashville hasn't really gotten scored on by anyone this year. To say that a team led by Joe Germaine is going to get things done on the road in a dangerous place to play is ludicrous. Todd Shell is on our side here... lol. Nashville has a new plethora of receivers to break in and might be able to bust the door down for a bunch of points... However, I think that 100 is too high for this game to reach, thus a small play on the under. Joe Germaine's lightning in a bottle is due to run out soon.

Now, the creme 'd la creme...

Nashville (+6.5) vs. Arizona (5 units -101): You don't know how badly I wanted to open up the bankroll on this game. Really badly. In my eyes, this might be the line of the year, and I don't say that often. Currently +4, had it at a pick 'em at worst. 1-7 goes on the road to face 1-6... As mentioned by ScottW, Nashville's locked and loaded and ready to face this team. Coach Sperdeuto promised after the Colorado game that his guys would be more than ready off of the bye week to face Arizona. Nashville is getting their QB and two main threats at WR back, which may open up the offense. Arizona hasn't stopped many teams of late... and they're a pretty bad team right now. Blame Todd Shell. He's a terrible coach. Yeah, nice game at Tampa (who proved to be not that great by losing to Philly) and a nice effort vs. LA, but the common denominator here is that this team hasn't figured out how to put away a game yet. We nailed Austin's first home win of the year and I think we're nailing Nashville's as well.

 

[AFLGuru]

More on the Nashville game really fast... Anyone else remember that Nashville was -4 hosting Vegas with Craig Whelihan at the helm? Joe Germaine ain't much better, and Arizona's defense isn't nearly as good. Oh yeah, Leon Murray is back for Nashville, and if memory serves, that Vegas game is the one he got hurt in.

Sunday's card...

Las Vegas (+6) vs. San Jose (4 units -105): Currently +4, I had at LV -1. Another game with a very loudly barking dog at home. San Jose is a hot team right now. Ever since that Orlando game, this team looks like the Sabercats I remember that won the Arena Bowl last year. But the truth of the matter... Vegas should be getting a TD start at home against anyone either. Ever since Dolezel has been back, the offense has been kicking really strong. Defense continues to play good ball for the Gladiators, despite the effort against Arizona last week. Vegas cannot afford to lose this game and they know it. If they drop a game behind San Jose AND the tiebreaker, they're near dead for the postseason, because that first game would be either @ Colorado or @ San Jose. Vegas is losing the tiebreaker to San Jose anyway because San Jose routed them in SJ, meaning by point differential, LV will lose out anyway... but this one can put some space between themselves and the rest of the West, with LA getting a tougher test from Tampa this week. I like the Glads to come out fired up in this one and to put a strong effort in against a smoking hot San Jose team... another dog barking at home. Love the outright upset here as well.

 

[scottw]

Murray was injured all season and the decided to sit him before the LV game. He did not play at all in that one.

 

[AFLGuru]

Healthy Murray and healthy WRs... all of them... loaded offense, ready to go... you smellin' an upset here too Scott?

 

[scottw]

No I'm not. I'm worried about a couple of things. AZ has to be thinking that they finally get someone they can whack. Their schedule has been brutal. They have played all 4 division leaders in the last 7 games. ORL, COL, LV, LA, GA, NY, and TB ALL have winning records. No CMB, AUS, etc. And most games have been close. And, I think this team may play better on the road. They have to be hearing about how much they suck when they are in Phoenix. When they get away, it's the us-against-the-world mentality. They played great last game at TB.

NAS worries me because when you have an OC, QB, and 2 WRs playing their first game together as a unit, you just can't be sure what to expect. Will they be better? Who knows. Sure LOOKS better on paper, but can they get on the same page and execute?

Right now I have no play on this game, and probably won't due to the fact that I want to see what the new changes in NAS bring. I will certainly be rooting for AZ since I have 3 units of futures against NAS, but hopefully AZ wins by less than 6 for you.

 

[AFLGuru]

Note that I quoted the Vegas game as being on Sunday... I lie, it's on Monday. So we've got an extended AFL week and no games on TV. Craptastic. Don't even get the Preds on TV because of AFLNet.

Anyway, some injury stuff to clarify... Shredrick Bonner is considered "extremely doubtful" for the game on Saturday. Nashville will have a near full WR corps with Fleschman, McGriff, DeMatteo, and Hillary all likely to suit. Yes, this is the first time that Murray has been on the field in weeks, let alone to break in a new WR corps... but he's had 2 weeks to figure this out. Expect the Kats to get off to a fast and high flying start in this one before the defense takes over to shut down Germaine and company.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[buzz21]

Good stuff as always AG......what are your thoughts on the Pinny 2 teamer 7.5 teaser....??? Looks like GR +15 and LV +11.5 is a slam dunk !!!!

 

[AFLGuru]

Adding: Orlando vs. Austin over 97.5 (2.5 units -105): I hate betting over in Orlando games... hate it. But this game should be good over for a bunch of points. Orlando will be without Kenny McEntyre and now also be without the released Damon Mason. This leaves Orlando in question with the defensive specialists, though they signed one today I've never heard of. That being said, Orlando's defense looked pretty crappy against Georgia, and will likely give up at least 45 to Austin. That being said, Austin's been most prone to the deep ball, and Gruden's idea of offense is deep ball incomplete, deep ball incomplete, 7 yard out, deep ball incomplete, turnover... Hamilton could actually have a pretty good week against these Austin DBs this week, and I believe that we can see 110 in this one easily.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Buzz--

Grand Rapids isn't a slam dunk ever at any number. Philly can VERY easily torch them, though again, I feel you'll be better off taking the points given here... Also, the way SJ has played lately, if they win, they're probably crushing LV.

 

[AFLGuru]

Just a suggestion here... if you haven't jumped Nashville, take them now... Following the trends of Olympic, it wouldn't surprise me if that game opens Nashville -1 or something like that. They've been big time favoring home teams on their lines, and this is one I expect to open up way against us and not way in our favor. Take the 3.5 points while you can... you've got maybe 30 minutes to do so.

That being said, don't be afraid to jump any of the HOME DOGS right now, regardless of the numbers, because Olympic usually opens up giving a higher HFA number than Pinnacle does, sometimes upwards of 3-4 points. Just a suggestion... you're gambling if you think that Olympic is going to help these lines out, as any line that Olympic posts is likely to be moved VERY quickly if it doesn't come close to Pinnacle's line.

 

[AFLGuru]

Olympic coming in later this week than last...

 

[TOMMYB]

Same With The Stardust , They Have 3 Games Up Right Now

Aust 100

Orl -10.5


Col 103.5
Dal -3

Ny -6.5
Colum 102

 

[AFLGuru]

Told you all you should've jumped the home dogs...

GR +8 at Oly.