This was my quote from the beginning of this thread...
"Check THIS out. You'll note that in many of the AFL games that the final score is at least a TD. Why is that? A lot of the good teams right now are vying for as many points as they can get, especially in the Eastern conference with NY, Orlando, Georgia, and Tampa. All of these teams have the feeling that a massive tiebreaker is evident, and that being said, a the tiebreakers down the line include common opponents, how bad you beat common opponents, and point differential for the season. So you'll note Orlando scoring a BS TD against New York and wondering why? That's why. Same thing with Chicago against Colorado this past week, and the same thing with New Orleans. So you WILL see a lot of final point totals 10+ over the remainder of the season, and in many cases, you'll also see teams playing give up to make sure they don't lose by over "x" amount. Take this Orlando/Georgia game for example. Georgia losing by 1 is just fine to them because they'll have won the tiebreaker with Orlando. Same with Orlando by 2, but if Orlando wins by 3, Orlando will win the tiebreaker with Georgia. So if the game is 54-53 with 2 seconds left and the Preds have the ball, don't be surprised to see a FG kicker come trotting out, or seeing Orlando try to throw for a TD."
So we try this again....
Sunday's Wagers
New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia W (+5 units)
Tampa (-4) @ Nashville L (-5 units)
Tony Graziani under 6.5 TDs+INT W (+2.38 units)
Aaron Garcia over 6.5 TDs+INT W (+2.32 units)
Shane Stafford under 6.5 TDs+INT W (+1.1 units)
Longest TD pass (-2.5 yards) to longest FG L (-3.5 units)
New York/Philly over 53 2nd half W (+3.81 units)
Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 P (-----)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans W (+3.33 units)
Added to....
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)
So in this freakish weekend... 9-5-1 (+15.20 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 38-21-2 (64.41%)
Against that same closing line: 35-25-1 (58.33%)
Sides Record: 28-21 (57.14%) (+34.44 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 13-11 (+6.48 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 8-8 (+0.88 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 77-62 (55.40%)
Net: +66.04 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 67-52 (56.30%)
Units Wagered: 397 units
Units Won: 66.04 units
Net %: 16.63% profit per unit wagered
"Check THIS out. You'll note that in many of the AFL games that the final score is at least a TD. Why is that? A lot of the good teams right now are vying for as many points as they can get, especially in the Eastern conference with NY, Orlando, Georgia, and Tampa. All of these teams have the feeling that a massive tiebreaker is evident, and that being said, a the tiebreakers down the line include common opponents, how bad you beat common opponents, and point differential for the season. So you'll note Orlando scoring a BS TD against New York and wondering why? That's why. Same thing with Chicago against Colorado this past week, and the same thing with New Orleans. So you WILL see a lot of final point totals 10+ over the remainder of the season, and in many cases, you'll also see teams playing give up to make sure they don't lose by over "x" amount. Take this Orlando/Georgia game for example. Georgia losing by 1 is just fine to them because they'll have won the tiebreaker with Orlando. Same with Orlando by 2, but if Orlando wins by 3, Orlando will win the tiebreaker with Georgia. So if the game is 54-53 with 2 seconds left and the Preds have the ball, don't be surprised to see a FG kicker come trotting out, or seeing Orlando try to throw for a TD."
So we try this again....
Sunday's Wagers
New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia W (+5 units)
Tampa (-4) @ Nashville L (-5 units)
Tony Graziani under 6.5 TDs+INT W (+2.38 units)
Aaron Garcia over 6.5 TDs+INT W (+2.32 units)
Shane Stafford under 6.5 TDs+INT W (+1.1 units)
Longest TD pass (-2.5 yards) to longest FG L (-3.5 units)
New York/Philly over 53 2nd half W (+3.81 units)
Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 P (-----)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans W (+3.33 units)
Added to....
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)
So in this freakish weekend... 9-5-1 (+15.20 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 38-21-2 (64.41%)
Against that same closing line: 35-25-1 (58.33%)
Sides Record: 28-21 (57.14%) (+34.44 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 13-11 (+6.48 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 8-8 (+0.88 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 77-62 (55.40%)
Net: +66.04 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 67-52 (56.30%)
Units Wagered: 397 units
Units Won: 66.04 units
Net %: 16.63% profit per unit wagered
Of course NY threw a F***ing meaningless TD pass. I had PHL +7. If I had had NY -7.5, Garcia would have thrown it into the seats. I am SICK of losing like that. JUST FALL DOWN ON THE BALL. Why are you throwing anyway? If it gets picked and run back, YOU CAN LOSE THE GAME. Damn schmucks. I hope they lose every game the rest of the way for that.
HPark1 said:
Yes, please remember that. I mentioned early in the year after a rough week of breaks that these things will even out. The reason NY scored that TD was because Orlando, Tampa, and themselves all played Philly, a common opponent. At some point down the line, the tiebreakers involved will come to point differential vs. common opponents. Though a very unlikely situation, I can see why New York would try to throw a relatively high percentage pass that has no chance of being returned for a TD. This places a burden on Orlando to beat Philly by more than 21 (they combined + net for New York vs. Philly) to keep in pace. Now I haven't studied all of this stuff and who needs what to happen, but Coach Harding probably did it right, though it seems like a dick football move.
Still UNNECESSARY. WHY RISK LOSING? You have already beaten Philly once this year. Margin is not an issue.
Of course, the real way I lost this was Graziani. What a joke. Yeah, he is worth 250K or whatever. They ought to bench his ass. Second straight HORRID game. He has lost all focus. Pitiful. This team is a go-against the rest of the way.
I still had a 4-2 week, but damn, that sucked.
Of course, the real way I lost this was Graziani. What a joke. Yeah, he is worth 250K or whatever. They ought to bench his ass. Second straight HORRID game. He has lost all focus. Pitiful. This team is a go-against the rest of the way.
I still had a 4-2 week, but damn, that sucked.
Yeah, last week PHL got the 2 point conversion with a few seconds left to force LV to score to get that one over the total, so that was lucky I know. But TWICE NY could have ended the game by just moving forward and letting the clock run out, or in the second instance just throwing the ball into the stands. What if the ball deflects off the receivers hands and gets picked and run back? Little chance I know, but less chance of that happening if the ball is in Row K, like Kelly did last night in GR. It would have been worse had I had the good number and had +7.5 or +8 and turned a WIN into a loss; as it was, a PUSH into a loss was bad enough.
WTF with TB? Shutout in 3 of 4 quarters? Pathetic.
WTF with TB? Shutout in 3 of 4 quarters? Pathetic.
