Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 13

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1 minute warning, Kats up 16... Tampa inside the Nashville 15. Still a shot at this one, but I'd say if I were a live odds maker right now, Tampa'd be about 12-1.
 

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On the bright side, Nashville's that much closer to 6 wins, though it'd take 6-9-1 for them because of that stupid tie.
 

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Yes, Grazzi. You're welcome. I am a part Pizan (Italiano) as well, so I understand. Nice pun.

Graz gets picked by NY... This one should be over now.
 

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Wow, Tampa didn't score a point in the 1st, 3rd, and now 14 minutes into the 4th quarter... VERY impressive outing by Nashville.
 

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Reggie Stephens with a pick of Stafford... flag on Tampa... This puppy's over.
 

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Yeah, the numbers today are gonna be ugly. But we should still have a winning week I believe... I'll cram the numbers when I know what's what. Really the only things pending are in that New York game.
 

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Here's the skinny with a minute left.

New York's up 7.

Garcia's got 6 TDs+INTs

Second half total is at 35

So that being said, our total is done unless something really weird happens. What would be ideal is a NY TD, a Philly answer and a missed PAT. New York would win by 8 and Garcia would get his total. But more likely is New York runs out the clock here and we fall short on all three accounts.
 

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Yeah, three pushes forward and the game is over after a Philly pass interference.
 

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Sweet, a NY TD! Too bad it wasn't a throw, but I'll take it and write it in the win column for us all!
 

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Aw man.... You're kidding... TD Philly on the kickoff... great....
 

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Great, right back where we started. Blocked PAT. Well, at least we're not gonna lose on the bet, but it made this weekend a loser.
 

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kickoff ret for a TD for Philly with under 15 seconds to go.

thats not right
 

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To be completely honest, I cashed on the New York wager, so I was happier today than the board records suggest. But regardless, these are the records posted off of the lines when I posted... so be it. Again, I can't stress enough. Opening lines are important, and this week it made the difference between win or loss or push in two spots. That's a legit 10-12 unit swing in one week. It was a pretty lousy day, but again, we chalk this up to another learning experience and move on.

Sunday's Wagers
New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia P (-----)
Tampa (-4) @ Nashville L (-5 units)
Tony Graziani under 6.5 TDs+INT W (+2.38 units)
Aaron Garcia over 6.5 TDs+INT L (-2 units)

Shane Stafford under 6.5 TDs W (+1.1 units)
Long TD pass... L (-3.5 units)

New York/Philly over 53 2nd half L (-4 units)

Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 P (-----)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans W (+3.33 units)


Added to....
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)

Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)


Conclusion for the week... 6-7-1 (-2.93 units)

YTD
Against the opening line: 38-21-2 (64.41%)
Against that same closing line: 34-26-1 (56.67%)

Sides Record: 27-21 (56.25%) (+29.44 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 12-12 (-1.33 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 7-9 (-3.44 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 74-64 (53.62%)
Net: +48.91 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 66-52 (55.93%)

Units Wagered: 397 units
Units Won: 48.91 units
Net %: 12.32% profit per unit wagered

I also must note here... There MAY NOT be Tuesday picks from me in the coming week because of final exams and there WILL NOT be week 15 picks from me likely at all. On Tuesday, May 3rd I am going into surgery for my lingering stomach issues. All things gone well, I will be able to get some picks out based off of the closing lines, but certainly not the opening ones (as my surgery is scheduled for noon EST). So just in case I'm not around the next couple weeks, best of luck to everyone in all of your action. I figure I should give everyone this heads up, so when you're looking for me the next two Tuesdays and don't find me, that's why. I will post something similar to start next week's thread.
 

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why would they risk throwing the ball? Couldn't they have just kneeled on the ball?

WTF! this league is too much.
 

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Philly kicked onside kick in which they were offsides. Ny had it with 2 seconds at the Philly 5 and threw a pass for a TD. Philly coach was not happy at that move.
 

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