Scott, typically it's not a bad call because Colorado runs the hurry up offense usually in the 1st quarter at home... but in this instance, I'm not too sure.
MathProf--
Under 105 was probably a pretty smart play. Here's what I've come to find. When Pinnacle offers these ridiculous looking over/under juice lines, the + line is usually the way to go, sometimes even sold all the way. I recall doing it twice and it paying both times.
MathProf--
Under 105 was probably a pretty smart play. Here's what I've come to find. When Pinnacle offers these ridiculous looking over/under juice lines, the + line is usually the way to go, sometimes even sold all the way. I recall doing it twice and it paying both times.
Couple things real fast...
I warned everyone who took Orlando to bail right? Yeah, in case anyone wanted to know why, go check out the Preds web site... Hamilton's on IR, McEntyre's headed there... Connell Maynor was signed to be a backup and holder in Hamilton's place... Some dude I NEVER heard of has been signed to started in the likelihood that McEntyre doesn't play.
Oh yeah, Johnny Harris is banged up with a groin problem, Reggie Doster is out another week, Buck Gurley's on IR, Idris Price is the only SOMEWHAT healthy fullback, and even he's got issues with his ankle, Justin Cleveland, the team's only true center has been limping for weeks and finally might be shut down....
Don't say I didn't warn you. Theme from Mash might as well be played.
But I'll say this... Just as I warned you not to take Orlando at +5, don't take Georgia when they open back up at anything more than 6. This is a very "grey area" game, but NO ONE should be giving a TD to the Preds in the Jungle, even when they're banged up. This would insinuate that the Preds are about two TDs worse than Georgia on neutral grounds... and if Georgia can do it around a ferocious pass rush, a backup QB, and until the Jackson trade, an untested group of WRs, so can the Preds, especially at home. These two teams really don't like each other, and with the stakes so high, look for this game to be closer than the experts will probably think.
Sure no one out there knows how to play DB to help my Preds out???
I warned everyone who took Orlando to bail right? Yeah, in case anyone wanted to know why, go check out the Preds web site... Hamilton's on IR, McEntyre's headed there... Connell Maynor was signed to be a backup and holder in Hamilton's place... Some dude I NEVER heard of has been signed to started in the likelihood that McEntyre doesn't play.
Oh yeah, Johnny Harris is banged up with a groin problem, Reggie Doster is out another week, Buck Gurley's on IR, Idris Price is the only SOMEWHAT healthy fullback, and even he's got issues with his ankle, Justin Cleveland, the team's only true center has been limping for weeks and finally might be shut down....
Don't say I didn't warn you. Theme from Mash might as well be played.
But I'll say this... Just as I warned you not to take Orlando at +5, don't take Georgia when they open back up at anything more than 6. This is a very "grey area" game, but NO ONE should be giving a TD to the Preds in the Jungle, even when they're banged up. This would insinuate that the Preds are about two TDs worse than Georgia on neutral grounds... and if Georgia can do it around a ferocious pass rush, a backup QB, and until the Jackson trade, an untested group of WRs, so can the Preds, especially at home. These two teams really don't like each other, and with the stakes so high, look for this game to be closer than the experts will probably think.
Sure no one out there knows how to play DB to help my Preds out???
And Shredrick Bonner is doing wh....?
Man, I thought his career was over with the Rattlers, especially since Germaine's put them in the win column twice, albeit against Nashville and Columbus. This has got to be a going away present for when he joins Danny White in Utah next year...
Yeah, Bonner might be rusty, but this isn't the New York secondary. It's the Austin secondary... and if somehow Arizona can keep Austin off of the scoreboard, even a banged up Shredrick should be able to chuck the ball all over the place. Over 105.5 or whatever the # is right now probably ain't a bad call.
Oh yeah, to update the current lines from what we've got...
Columbus is now +12 (-110) and +11.5 elsewhere
Colorado is pk (-101)
SJ/Col under is 107.5 (+112)
Arizona is -6.5 (-108)
Grand Rapids is +15 (-106)
Chicago/LA under is 98 (-105)
New York is -7 (-117)
Tampa is -7 (+101)
So some of these lines CONTINUE to rise. Look for books to open New York at -7.5 or 8 when they open later in the week. This is probably where the Arizona game will end, and the Tampa game probably has one more Nashville spike left in it... Books have to make their money from somewhere....
Man, I thought his career was over with the Rattlers, especially since Germaine's put them in the win column twice, albeit against Nashville and Columbus. This has got to be a going away present for when he joins Danny White in Utah next year...
Yeah, Bonner might be rusty, but this isn't the New York secondary. It's the Austin secondary... and if somehow Arizona can keep Austin off of the scoreboard, even a banged up Shredrick should be able to chuck the ball all over the place. Over 105.5 or whatever the # is right now probably ain't a bad call.
Oh yeah, to update the current lines from what we've got...
Columbus is now +12 (-110) and +11.5 elsewhere
Colorado is pk (-101)
SJ/Col under is 107.5 (+112)
Arizona is -6.5 (-108)
Grand Rapids is +15 (-106)
Chicago/LA under is 98 (-105)
New York is -7 (-117)
Tampa is -7 (+101)
So some of these lines CONTINUE to rise. Look for books to open New York at -7.5 or 8 when they open later in the week. This is probably where the Arizona game will end, and the Tampa game probably has one more Nashville spike left in it... Books have to make their money from somewhere....
BAILEY BOOKED: VooDoo offensive specialist Aaron Bailey was booked Tuesday with simple battery and domestic violence after an alleged altercation with his girlfriend at their Kenner home. According to Kenner Police spokesman Capt. Steve Caraway, the department received a call from Bailey's girlfriend shortly after 12:15 a.m. Tuesday, in which she said Bailey grabbed her neck and choked her. Bailey had left the scene before police arrived, but he turned himself in to Kenner Police around 9 p.m. Tuesday, and he was released on his own recognizance. Bailey is the Arena Football League's leading receiver with 96 receptions, and leads the team with 1,126 yards and 25 touchdowns. He is also the leading receiver in VooDoo history with 2,545 yards and 57 touchdowns. Bailey and the team declined comment on his arrest.
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Ah, Bailey... way to go dipsh*t.... Anyway, that doesn't mean squat in the AFL. HIGHLY unlikely that he gets suspended or even fined. But it's a typical story of an AFL players. Many of them end up with stories like this throughout the year, but this one was probably brought to the forefront because it's New Orleans' star. One of the Preds linemen had a DUI for being over twice the legal limit while driving and no one said boo about that.
Friday night's card...
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas (2 units -105)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose (3 units +100)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 (2.5 units -105)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin (5 units -105)
And a couple others for Friday night now that I know the entire Preds strategy for the week...
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half (3 units -105)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 (4 units +116)
Orlando and Georgia will battle this one out in the Jungle tomorrow night in what is almost sure to be a very interesting affair. The Preds will send backup QB Chris Sanders into battle with Georgia backup Matt Nagy. Nagy's WRs are healthy though... Sanders has only 4 healthy WRs on the roster from last week's squad, and adding Herman Bell, whom I've NEVER heard of. Georgia's WR crew should have a field day on a Preds secondary that features a banged up Johnny Harris, who can't move laterally whatsoever with a pulled groin and newcomer Korey Harris, who was in camp with the Preds a few years back... but was found to be too small to play DB at 5'9". Chris Jackson's 6'2" frame will probably find the end zone several times if matched up against either of these DBs. Worse for Orlando is Bret Cooper, who is a terrible DB in his own right. Normally a jack linebacker on defense, Cooper can't cover anything as a DB, but because he's a veteran that's at least got HALF a clue, he'll be the 3rd DB in most cases. Also, there's a possibility that Reggie Doster will play for the Preds, as well as Arkie Thompson. Though Doster would immediately become the best DB on the field for Orlando, Thompson is once again, too small to match up with Georgia's WRs. Worse than that is because of the injuries, Thompson, a defensive specialist by trait, has to play WR on offense... None of this bodes well for Orlando.
HOWEVER... To say that the Preds can't win this game is massively undervaluing the Preds line play. The line will rush Nagy til the cows come home, as Georgia doesn't have the greatest rushing attack. If the Preds line gets pressure on Nagy, the Preds will force some errand passes and probably keep this one close. But if they don't, Nagy will have a field day and the Force will score 60.
As for the Preds offense? No running game, as Idris Price is still banged up but playing, thus making the Preds awfully one dimensional. Cory Fleming has promised a big game, and Chris Sanders looked good enough against New York's defense. If Orlando's line protects Sanders, he too will light up the scoreboard, as without Parker, Georgia's secondary isn't the greatest either.
Two banged up secondaries should yield at least 100 in this one. Best of luck tomorrow night.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas (2 units -105)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose (3 units +100)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 (2.5 units -105)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin (5 units -105)
And a couple others for Friday night now that I know the entire Preds strategy for the week...
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half (3 units -105)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 (4 units +116)
Orlando and Georgia will battle this one out in the Jungle tomorrow night in what is almost sure to be a very interesting affair. The Preds will send backup QB Chris Sanders into battle with Georgia backup Matt Nagy. Nagy's WRs are healthy though... Sanders has only 4 healthy WRs on the roster from last week's squad, and adding Herman Bell, whom I've NEVER heard of. Georgia's WR crew should have a field day on a Preds secondary that features a banged up Johnny Harris, who can't move laterally whatsoever with a pulled groin and newcomer Korey Harris, who was in camp with the Preds a few years back... but was found to be too small to play DB at 5'9". Chris Jackson's 6'2" frame will probably find the end zone several times if matched up against either of these DBs. Worse for Orlando is Bret Cooper, who is a terrible DB in his own right. Normally a jack linebacker on defense, Cooper can't cover anything as a DB, but because he's a veteran that's at least got HALF a clue, he'll be the 3rd DB in most cases. Also, there's a possibility that Reggie Doster will play for the Preds, as well as Arkie Thompson. Though Doster would immediately become the best DB on the field for Orlando, Thompson is once again, too small to match up with Georgia's WRs. Worse than that is because of the injuries, Thompson, a defensive specialist by trait, has to play WR on offense... None of this bodes well for Orlando.
HOWEVER... To say that the Preds can't win this game is massively undervaluing the Preds line play. The line will rush Nagy til the cows come home, as Georgia doesn't have the greatest rushing attack. If the Preds line gets pressure on Nagy, the Preds will force some errand passes and probably keep this one close. But if they don't, Nagy will have a field day and the Force will score 60.
As for the Preds offense? No running game, as Idris Price is still banged up but playing, thus making the Preds awfully one dimensional. Cory Fleming has promised a big game, and Chris Sanders looked good enough against New York's defense. If Orlando's line protects Sanders, he too will light up the scoreboard, as without Parker, Georgia's secondary isn't the greatest either.
Two banged up secondaries should yield at least 100 in this one. Best of luck tomorrow night.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Thanks for the Arizona Pick!!!! What a winner.
The AFL needs instant replay. I don't know who was watching the Orlando-Georgia game last night but Georgia absolutely got robbed of a TD in the closing minute. I wanted Orlando to win but fair is fair.
The AFL needs instant replay. I don't know who was watching the Orlando-Georgia game last night but Georgia absolutely got robbed of a TD in the closing minute. I wanted Orlando to win but fair is fair.
Sorry I wasn't around last night. For some reason my internet connection didn't take me here. But now that my team doesn't pick again for a few hours (Texans... nice pick with Travis Johnson after taking a 3rd rounder from the Aints), I've got some time to do the recap from yesterday.
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)
Solid night: 3-3 (+4.76 units)
Yeah, this was a disasterous Colorado/San Jose game. 89 points for the Sabercats. Yeah, we probably won't bet against the Saberkitties until the playoffs from here on out. Columbus stuck tough in the 1st half and the crapped out in the 2nd half.
YTD
Against the opening line: 36-20-1 (64.29%)
Against that same closing line: 33-23-1 (58.93%)
Sides Record: 26-20 (56.52%) (+31.11 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 71-60 (54.20%)
Net: +56.60 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 65-50 (56.52%)
Units Wagered: 371 units
Units Won: 56.60 units
Net %: 15.26% profit per unit wagered
Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 (3 units -110)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans (3.5 units -105)
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)
Solid night: 3-3 (+4.76 units)
Yeah, this was a disasterous Colorado/San Jose game. 89 points for the Sabercats. Yeah, we probably won't bet against the Saberkitties until the playoffs from here on out. Columbus stuck tough in the 1st half and the crapped out in the 2nd half.
YTD
Against the opening line: 36-20-1 (64.29%)
Against that same closing line: 33-23-1 (58.93%)
Sides Record: 26-20 (56.52%) (+31.11 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 71-60 (54.20%)
Net: +56.60 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 65-50 (56.52%)
Units Wagered: 371 units
Units Won: 56.60 units
Net %: 15.26% profit per unit wagered
Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 (3 units -110)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans (3.5 units -105)
arty:Grand Rapids winner, Chicago under not looking solid thanks to a couple late LA turnovers... We'll see. I really haven't watched this game through and through so I'm not completely sure what's going on.
Tomlv: DO NOT bet this prop for several reasons. 1) Nashville's kick return game was lights out last week with Toliver. He's got a big grudge with Tampa trading him to Nashville here. 2) Nashville's defense is studly and can force a turnover in the end zone at any point. 3) TAMPA'S defense is also very due to get themselves a pick 6 or something of the sorts. Never bet this prop. It's always a trap and the books claim money very often on no betting. Most of the time if it looks too good to be true, it is.
Tomlv: DO NOT bet this prop for several reasons. 1) Nashville's kick return game was lights out last week with Toliver. He's got a big grudge with Tampa trading him to Nashville here. 2) Nashville's defense is studly and can force a turnover in the end zone at any point. 3) TAMPA'S defense is also very due to get themselves a pick 6 or something of the sorts. Never bet this prop. It's always a trap and the books claim money very often on no betting. Most of the time if it looks too good to be true, it is.
Kinda pushed some cash around today. Hit the slightly bigger play and pushed the under in the Chicago game. Got the two biggiest tomorrow afternoon.
Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 P (-----)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans W (+3.33 units)
Added to....
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)
Solid start to the weekend: 4-3-1 (+8.09 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 37-20-2 (64.91%)
Against that same closing line: 34-24-1 (58.62%)
Sides Record: 27-20 (57.45%) (+34.44 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 72-60 (54.55%)
Net: +59.93 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 66-50 (56.90%)
Units Wagered: 374.5 units
Units Won: 59.93 units
Net %: 16.01% profit per unit wagered
Sunday's Wagers
New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia (5 units +100)
Tampa (-4) @ Nashville (5 units -105)
Saturday Card
Chicago/LA under 101 P (-----)
Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans W (+3.33 units)
Added to....
Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas L (-2 units)
Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose L (-3 units)
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 L (-2.5 units)
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin W (+4.76 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 47 1st half W (+2.86 units)
Orlando/Georgia over 97 W (+4.64 units)
Solid start to the weekend: 4-3-1 (+8.09 units)
YTD
Against the opening line: 37-20-2 (64.91%)
Against that same closing line: 34-24-1 (58.62%)
Sides Record: 27-20 (57.45%) (+34.44 units)
Totals Record: 25-15 (62.50%) (+29.42 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 2-4 (-2.73 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)
Composite Record
YTD: 72-60 (54.55%)
Net: +59.93 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 66-50 (56.90%)
Units Wagered: 374.5 units
Units Won: 59.93 units
Net %: 16.01% profit per unit wagered
Sunday's Wagers
New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia (5 units +100)
Tampa (-4) @ Nashville (5 units -105)
I'm gonna bite myself for this one, I can tell, but I've looked over these props a bit and decided we've got some more value.
Tony Graziani under 6.5 TDs+INT (2 units +119)
Aaron Garcia over 6.5 TDs+INT (2 units +116)
Shane Stafford under 6.5 TDs (1 unit +110)
And the big one for today...
Tampa vs. Nashville, longest TD pass (-2.5 yards) to longest FG (3.5 units -122)
Graziani's TDs will be limited today as it is I believe, and to make matters worse, Soul Train is probably gonna score at least once for the Soul. Graz will probably throw a pick, meaning Philly's gonna have to score 7-8 TDs to beat us, which I don't believe happens.
Garcia does nothing but chuck the ball around. We bet this prop last time these two played and we lost... so it's now redemption time! I think today could be one of these "Aaron Garcia goes for 9 scores" days.
As for Stafford, 7 TDs+INTs is a hard number to reach the way Nashville plays. This really means Tampa's gotta score 6 times, and they all be through the air... and that's AT LEAST. That's IF Stafford throws a pick. Nashville will slow this game down all day and it will probably come back to aid us. Because we bet on Tampa, this is a smaller play, but at +110 against Nashville, 7 TD+INT is a difficult task.
And the biggest prop of the day is the TD -2.5 yards over the FG. Nashville gunned it out at times against LA, producing at least one 30 yard score. Tampa will play quick strikes again today, but the key here is that no FG is a win for the TD. Matt George is a solid kicker, but he's not called on often. Though I can totally see George being forced to kick a few very long FGs, I'll take my chances that they're all inside of 40 yards, because someone's gonna hit a strike here. And if Tampa's offense unstoppable today, Tony Dodson, who made a 50 some odd yarder last week, probably isn't drilling much of anything today. Just looking at the percentages, knowing that any time you bet the favorite in this situation it's a trap... I think just like when we bet on Colorado to have more net passing yards, we're in a nice spot here. We'll see...
I'll be back in a couple hours.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Tony Graziani under 6.5 TDs+INT (2 units +119)
Aaron Garcia over 6.5 TDs+INT (2 units +116)
Shane Stafford under 6.5 TDs (1 unit +110)
And the big one for today...
Tampa vs. Nashville, longest TD pass (-2.5 yards) to longest FG (3.5 units -122)
Graziani's TDs will be limited today as it is I believe, and to make matters worse, Soul Train is probably gonna score at least once for the Soul. Graz will probably throw a pick, meaning Philly's gonna have to score 7-8 TDs to beat us, which I don't believe happens.
Garcia does nothing but chuck the ball around. We bet this prop last time these two played and we lost... so it's now redemption time! I think today could be one of these "Aaron Garcia goes for 9 scores" days.
As for Stafford, 7 TDs+INTs is a hard number to reach the way Nashville plays. This really means Tampa's gotta score 6 times, and they all be through the air... and that's AT LEAST. That's IF Stafford throws a pick. Nashville will slow this game down all day and it will probably come back to aid us. Because we bet on Tampa, this is a smaller play, but at +110 against Nashville, 7 TD+INT is a difficult task.
And the biggest prop of the day is the TD -2.5 yards over the FG. Nashville gunned it out at times against LA, producing at least one 30 yard score. Tampa will play quick strikes again today, but the key here is that no FG is a win for the TD. Matt George is a solid kicker, but he's not called on often. Though I can totally see George being forced to kick a few very long FGs, I'll take my chances that they're all inside of 40 yards, because someone's gonna hit a strike here. And if Tampa's offense unstoppable today, Tony Dodson, who made a 50 some odd yarder last week, probably isn't drilling much of anything today. Just looking at the percentages, knowing that any time you bet the favorite in this situation it's a trap... I think just like when we bet on Colorado to have more net passing yards, we're in a nice spot here. We'll see...
I'll be back in a couple hours.
--AFLGuru:toast:
