Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 13

[AFLGuru]

Lucky week 13 upon us... Here's the recap through 12 weeks...

YTD
Against the opening line: 35-17-1 (67.31%)
Against that same closing line: 32-20-1 (61.54%)

Sides Record: 25-18 (58.14%) (+31.35 units)
Totals Record: 24-14 (63.16%) (+27.28 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
1st half: 1-4 (-5.59 units)
2nd half: 12-11 (+2.67 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 5-7 (-1.42 units)

Composite Record

YTD: 68-57 (54.40%)
Net: +51.84 units
Actual ATS (Sides + Totals + 1st halfs + 2nd halfs): 62-47 (56.88%)

Units Wagered: 351.5 units
Units Won: 51.84 units
Net %: 14.75% profit per unit wagered

 

[AFLGuru]

For Friday...

Columbus (+15) 2 units
Colorado (pk) 3 units
Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 2.5 units
Arizona (-3) vs. Austin 5 units VERY strong play

For Saturday...

Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans 3.5 units
Chicago/LA under 101 3 units

For Sunday, two BIG plays

Tampa (-4) @ Nashville 5 units
New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia

 

[scottw]

All I got so far is AZ +3 for 2 units and PHL +7 for 1 unit. Not as much to choose from this week so far.

 

[AFLGuru]

Ah man, you missed NY at a pick 'em!

 

[AFLGuru]

I grabbed NY at a pick 'em, Tampa at -2, and Arizona at +3 like you did

 

[AFLGuru]

Just to clarify that, I post available numbers here on therx because of some of the line movements, and the amount that one should wager at these current numbers, and accept the record for them. New York game should read...

New York (-7) vs. Philly 5 units

 

[scottw]

I don't want NY. The defense has fallen apart, and the offense shoots themselves in the foot too often. I was hoping for a TD with PHL and got it. Don't understand all the money on NY, who lost to AUS, beat a terrible CMB team by 1, blew a final possession to beat CHI and lost, got blown out at LA, allowed 72 to ORL with a backup QB. Just not good. I'll take a shot that Graz does not have another 3 TD day.

 

[AFLGuru]

Friday Preview...

Columbus (+15) vs. Dallas (2 units -105): Columbus enters this game having been trounced by the Voodoo away from home. Very little encouraging came out of the game. Matt D'Orazio looked like crap and the Voodoo looked like world beaters. But upon closer inspection, the Destroyers were a big time victim of circumstance. They got beat pretty bad by a team off of a bye week that was pretty ticked to say the least, having just lost to Austin the week before. Dallas is reeling at the current moment after giving up 83 to the Sabercats and tying Nashville the week before. Dallas ran into big time problems at home against the Destroyers, a game they probably should have lost outright, but pulled out late 35-31. Coach Will McClay has challenged his rookie QB, Clint Stoerner, threatening to bench him. For that, he responded by dropping 70+ on SJ. But that being said, the defense crapped out. Dallas is still the most overrated team in the AFL, and Columbus will give the Desperadoes a good run in this one before falling late, probably by about a TD. Plenty within the number.

Line Opened: +15
Current Line: +14
Good Until: +10.5

Colorado (pk) vs. San Jose (3 units +100): Colorado comes into this one having been embarassed @ Chicago. But this isn't Chicago, and John Dutton isn't going to be crapping his pants because he can't hear again. Dutton goes up against his former squad for, I believe the first time since winning them the Arena Bowl a couple years back as Mark Grieb's backup. The Chicago game served as a massive wake up call to one of the best teams in the AFL, that the division isn't a lock by any means yet. This one is the most important game left for the Crush, as a win all but guarantees them the #1 seed in their conference, while a loss could let Chicago slip in front of them in the division. With such a slim margin for error here, the Crush can't let this one get away at home. Too much at stake. This is almost certainly going to be the matchup for the right to go to the Arena Bowl, and the home team will be determined in this one. San Jose's good, but Colorado will be too much on their home turf. Still, because they're the Kitties and red hot, only 3 units.

Line Opened: +2
Current: pk (-105)
Good until: -2 or maybe -2.5 with odds

Colorado/San Jose under 109.5 (2.5 units -105): Okay, San Jose... enough is enough... We've seen that you can drop 80 now twice this season, and 70 a couple other times. Enough. Watch for Rich Young to go bonkers Friday night, as he was irate when he left Chicago. He'll get at least one sack, or a massive shot on Mark Grieb. Colorado's offense will get back to basics in this one. Yes, we have to weather the first half hurry up offense storm, but once we get through that, it should be clear sailing. San Jose's defense also has this way of coming up on the road this year, and I think this will be no exception. Looking at a worst case split in my eyes, unless San Jose just goes apeshit offensively again, and I can't see this Colorado team giving up 70+ in back to back weeks, especially in front of the hometown faithful.

Line Opened: 111
Current: 106.5 (u -110)
Good until: 104

Arizona (-3) vs. Austin (5 units -105): Ladies and gents, I give you the creme d' la creme of Friday night. Arizona opened at a pathetic +3 in this one, and I was expecting more along the lines of the Ratts -6... and was ready to bet it from there... so this is a steal! Austin is finally starting to relax and realize that their season is reduced to spoiler. As if there was any doubt, a collapse down the stretch against Tampa destroyed their chances. Austin's already pulled one of these road upsets this year when they beat a Craig Whelihan led Vegas team. Joe Germaine is coming into his own, and I'm tired of being on the losing side of Arizona wagers this year. Getting on the winning team this time! Coach Shell is letting the team flow, as he's sat down Bonner for the season to let his youth play. These guys are starting to get the hang of it, and don't be surprised at all if Arizona thinks they've got a playoff push in them, even at 3-7. Stringing together 4 straight here could put them a game back with 2 to play. Don't be surprised at all. Too much talent on this team for Fitzy and the gang.

Opened: +3
Current: -5.5 (-112)
Good until: -9

And for those of you that bet Orlando... get rid of the bet now while you can... just trust me. Get rid of it while you can. It could be a real ugly game in the Jungle this week, and you don't want to look like a fool betting on Orlando here... not until later in the week at least. WAY too many injuries on this team. Pinny opened a very fair line for the game.

 

[AFLGuru]

I don't want NY. The defense has fallen apart, and the offense shoots themselves in the foot too often. I was hoping for a TD with PHL and got it. Don't understand all the money on NY, who lost to AUS, beat a terrible CMB team by 1, blew a final possession to beat CHI and lost, got blown out at LA, allowed 72 to ORL with a backup QB. Just not good. I'll take a shot that Graz does not have another 3 TD day.

Lemme dissect this everyone here...

Austin: Away
Columbus: Away
Chicago: Hottest team in the AFL
LA: Away
Orlando: Away

This puppy? At home. More to come explaining why New York is winning this one by 4 TDs.

 

[AFLGuru]

For Saturday...

Grand Rapids (+17.5) vs. New Orleans (3.5 units -105): Painful game to bet... Really is. I think this is a real bad spot for the Voodoo. They haven't travelled well this year at all and know that this is a real must win with two roadies into the state of Florida left. Though the Rampage have shown no sign of covering 3 tuddies in recent weeks, I just think this MIGHT be the spot they do it in. By no means are they beating New Orleans. The superior team will reign the day. Michael Bishop is going to give hassles to New Orleans...... if he plays.... if Sparky decides to give him another week.... that's my big ? here. But to be honest, if McEwen benches Bishop, he deserves to lose by 10 TDs. Anyway, Bishop can exploit this defense, which pursues the QB way too much. It's been proven now that the way you beat Mike Bishop is by keeping him in the pocket and making him throw. But with undersized linemen on the field that are nothing but up the field rushers, Chris Avery and Michael Bishop could have a field day running the ball. Quick paced game is what I expect, and should the Rampage get to 40 this week, they'll cover. Don't think the Voodoo are running it up as bad as they did against Columbus.

Opened: +19
Current: +15 (-110)
Good until: +12.5

Chicago/LA under 101 (3 units -110): Got this one a tad later than the rest, thus lost some juice. Part of me just has the feeling this is a bit of a trap, but the way that Chicago and LA have played defense lately, this number is a steal. 51 to Nashville is a bit blown up thanks to a 57 yard FG and the ridiculous kick return game of Nashville. The defense did its job for the Avengers. Held New York in the 30s and Orlando in the 40s until OT. Expect the same in this one. Chicago's offense won't be gang busters again and drop 70, almost guaranteed, nor will LA's offense. I'm afraid this LA team has tanked it, and that being said, look for the Rush to hold LA maybe as low as the low 30s in this one, giving us a steal.

Opened: 101
Current: 99 (-110)
Good Until: 92.5

 

[AFLGuru]

For Sunday, the two biggies...

New York (-7) vs. Philadelphia (5 units +100): Okay, I honestly got it at pk -105... and though the juice number is lower now, it's still a GREAT GREAT play. Here's why.... I'll give a long section for this to explain my logic pretty thoroughly to ScottW and anyone else interested in why the number is flying.

Last week I was fortunate enough to speak to some of the Preds players about the game against New York (which is part of the reason I'm highly recommended people to NOT bet on Orlando, but don't necessarily bet on Georgia either until we know what the injury situation is like). New York torched Orlando's secondary even before it got beat up in the 2nd half. The comments about this team were pretty much across the board consensus... The Preds don't want to play them again. The comment is that the DBs are as physical as they come, the linemen take cheap shots, and Garcia is one of the best in the biz. I'll correct that. Garcia IS the best in the biz. Yes, New York gave up 70+ to Orlando, but let's also remember that they dropped 60, 40 of which came in the first half. The offense kept coming up with the plays, and the defense didn't play as poorly as the stats would look. According to some folks at the game (and coach Gruden), Sanders made a lot of good throws through traffic, but it's traffic that can cause big time problems. The DBs are good enough to stick with any receivers in the game, and the 70+ was an abhorration.

Now, from Philly's perspective? Have fun without Graz's favorite target. There's a reason Philly collapsed down the stretch, and it's because Sean Scott wasn't playing. Best WR is gonna be doubtful in this one because of a rib cage problem. Wes Ours and two other fullbacks are doubtful for the Soul, meaning Soul Train's gonna have to play the whole game. That being said, he weighs a ton and will get tired of chasing Garcia on defense, especially with the quantity of 3 step drops he throws. And as far as Graziani? He's human. He's proved that. But what's his biggest problem been this year? TRAFFIC! Anyone else remember the start to that Colorado game? Pick 6 to the jack linebacker. Philly's special teams haven't been very special lately, especially after that debacle to end up letting Vegas win it last week.

Last meeting between these two in Philly wasn't as close as the scoreline suggested. New York embarassed Philly in the first quarter and let them back in it. It was 20-0 after 1. Philly got no pressure on Garcia and he torched them. Preds defensive line got very frustrated by the fact that they couldn't touch Garcia... not a single sack, not a single knock down, nothing. Didn't touch him. If the Preds front 3 can't catch Garcia, no one can.

Next point: Key numbers in this game... 6'2", 6'2", 6'3", 6'3"... what are those you ask? Height of the NY receivers, all VERY physical. Once again, last week... the big play down the stretch made by? 6'2" Joe Douglass. Philly CAN NOT guard against big receivers. They just don't have the height in the secondary, and that's a problem that no one can fix.

Bottom line: This team's season is over. Philly's done. New York on the other hand? Right there in the playoff hunt. This team is one of the more talented ones in the league, and will make the playoffs... and it starts this week with a thumping of their division rival back home where they've had MUCH more success than away from home.

Line Opened: pk
Current Line: -7 (-112)
Good until: at least -13... but it won't get THAT high

Tampa (-4) @ Nashville (5 units -105): This one requires me to bite a couple massive bullets. #1, I hate rooting for Tampa... #2, I've gotta concede that Nashville's not gonna get to our 6 wins. But I'll say this... If by chance I AM wrong about this game, Nashville WILL get to the 6 wins, thus another winning wager is born. But here's my logic. Tampa's scary right now. REAL scary. They came out flat against Austin, but really turned on the juice after a massive drive that ate up almost 10 minutes of the 3rd quarter and ended in a TD. They dominated Orlando, then crushed Austin in the 2nd half, and I really think the Nashville juice stops with this one, especially knowing how much it means to the Storm. Shane Stafford has been lights out since Marcum got back to the sidelines. Getting rid of Toliver seems to have helped out the cause for the Storm, as the offense has gotten back into shape, and the defense is flat out nasty right now. This doesn't bode well for a Nashville team that took advantage of an obviously emotionally drained LA team and Grand Rapids. But this is a whole other league. This Tampa team is real and will win this one handlely in my estimation, and the starting line of 2.5 was too good to leave there. Take the Storm with confidence that Sunday is going to be a HUGE day for us, even here at a TD.

Opened: -2.5
Current: -7 (-110)
Good til: -11.5

 

[AFLGuru]

Also, one other thing people must certainly be thinking about me and all of these massive point spreads...

Check THIS out. You'll note that in many of the AFL games that the final score is at least a TD. Why is that? A lot of the good teams right now are vying for as many points as they can get, especially in the Eastern conference with NY, Orlando, Georgia, and Tampa. All of these teams have the feeling that a massive tiebreaker is evident, and that being said, a the tiebreakers down the line include common opponents, how bad you beat common opponents, and point differential for the season. So you'll note Orlando scoring a BS TD against New York and wondering why? That's why. Same thing with Chicago against Colorado this past week, and the same thing with New Orleans. So you WILL see a lot of final point totals 10+ over the remainder of the season, and in many cases, you'll also see teams playing give up to make sure they don't lose by over "x" amount. Take this Orlando/Georgia game for example. Georgia losing by 1 is just fine to them because they'll have won the tiebreaker with Orlando. Same with Orlando by 2, but if Orlando wins by 3, Orlando will win the tiebreaker with Georgia. So if the game is 54-53 with 2 seconds left and the Preds have the ball, don't be surprised to see a FG kicker come trotting out, or seeing Orlando try to throw for a TD.

So lay tuddies when the big teams are playing, and know that they're trying to win every game by as many points as possible.

 

[AFLGuru]

<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>451</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Desperados</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-11½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>105</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>452</TD><TD width=185>Columbus Destroyers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:30 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>453</TD><TD width=185>Georgia Force</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>454</TD><TD width=185>Orlando Predators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-1</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>95</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:00 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>455</TD><TD width=185>San Jose Sabercats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-1½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>110</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>456</TD><TD width=185>Colorado Crush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:00 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>457</TD><TD width=185>Austin Wranglers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>458</TD><TD width=185>Arizona Rattlers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>106½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Saturday, April 23, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:30 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>459</TD><TD width=185>New Orlean VooDoo</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-14</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>105</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>460</TD><TD width=185>Grand Rapids Rampage</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:30 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>461</TD><TD width=185>Chicago Rush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>462</TD><TD width=185>Los Angeles Avengers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-1</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>100</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Sunday, April 24, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>463</TD><TD width=185>Philadelphia Soul</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>464</TD><TD width=185>New York Dragons</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>108</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm Week 13 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>465</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Storm</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-8</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>97</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[AFLGuru]

Couple glaring lines here...

Nashville (+8)
o/u Nash/Tampa 97

Colorado actually opened +2, now pk

Columbus at 11.5! Looks like we did well yesterday

 

[AFLGuru]

Got Colorado +2 at Oly

 

[AFLGuru]

New York at -6.5 is pretty good too... go for it before they move it to a full tuddy as well.

 

[scottw]

Got TB-NAS under 97.

 

[AFLGuru]

Not bad Scott. The big scalpers were that, Colorado, and o/u SJ/Col

 

[MathProf]

Note that Dal/Cob is 110 at OLY - any opinion?

Luckily got Col und 110, LA und 100, NY -6.5

But I wonder - when does Dallas become an offset
or straight play?

Good luck to all

 

[MathProf]

Sorry, I meant Dall/Cob is 105 as opposed to

100 -125 at Pinny