Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 11

Search

New member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
250
Tokens
Nice Write Ups As Usual. Alot Of Line Movement As Usual On Some Games . Whats Up With Pinnacle , Do The Crave Big Line Movements On The Favorites.???
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
Once again, I won't be around for Olympic openers today. Scott, Tommy, or whomever is floating around today when Olympic opens them up... Can you jot down the following info for me for record-keeping purposes...

1) Olympic's openers
2) Pinnacle's responses to Olympic's openers
3) Olympic's "stable" lines
4) Pinnacle's "stable" lines

By "stable" I mean after the dust settles from the initial opening of the lines. Thanks guys. Appreciate it. I'll be back around later this evening, as I have another bastard 13-14 hour day on campus lined up for me.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
1,777
Tokens
I'll try. I'm on vacation but took my laptop with me of course. I'll see what I can do.
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
Joined
Jan 25, 2005
Messages
6,839
Tokens
hey scott, where are you vacationing at? Im looking for vacation ideas for the summer and would like some feedback
 

Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
1,777
Tokens
Virginia Beach VA, but only because my brother lives here. Really like it!
 

Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
1,777
Tokens
OLY openers. Notice they have the Crush listed as the Storm. PINNY immediately took 5 games or so off the board, quicker than usual.


<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>451</TD><TD width=185>Austin Wranglers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>452</TD><TD width=185>Georgia Force</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-11½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>100½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:30 pm Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>453</TD><TD width=185>Nashville Kats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>454</TD><TD width=185>Dallas Desperados</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-13</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>99</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:00 pm Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>455</TD><TD width=185>Columbus Destroyers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>456</TD><TD width=185>Arizona Rattlers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-5½</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>98</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:00 pm Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>457</TD><TD width=185>Grand Rapids Rampage</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>458</TD><TD width=185>Las Vegas Gladiators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-13</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>105</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Saturday, April 09, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:30 pm Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>459</TD><TD width=185>Orlando Predators</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>460</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Storm</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-2</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>98</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Sunday, April 10, 2005</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE> <TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>6:30 pm (NBC) Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>461</TD><TD width=185>Philadelphia Soul</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>462</TD><TD width=185>Tampa Bay Storm</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-7</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>107½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>12:00 pm (NBC) Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>463</TD><TD width=185>San Jose Sabercats</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-6</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>103½</TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>464</TD><TD width=185>Chicago Rush</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>2:00 pm Week 11 </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>465</TD><TD width=185>New York Dragons</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=45 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD><TD width=85 bgColor=#666666> </TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>466</TD><TD width=185>Los Angeles Avengers</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>-2</TD><TD align=middle width=85 bgColor=#666666>104</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 

Member
Joined
Mar 8, 2005
Messages
1,777
Tokens
Grabbed the ORL-TB game under 98. It dropped to 94 a minute later. Rest of the numbers pretty much made sense to me. No real shockers with a number 6 or 7 points off of PINNY's line.
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
Adding: Dallas/Nashville under 48.5 1st half (2 units -105): Think we've got ourselves a magic number right here. Looks like it takes 7 TDs to burn us, but Nashville's Nick Hutto is kicking for what I believe to be his first AFL game, though his name sounds awfully familiar to me. If we grab 1 missed PAT in the first half between two TERRIBLE kickers (well, I'm assuming if you were under Gary Kral, you're terrible) there has to be 8 scores to beat us, one of which could be a FG. But Nashville doesn't score more than 3 times in a half often, and this isn't Grand Rapids. Both teams play solid defense and I think we'll see this one around 40 at the half, setting us up for a large victory. If not, we'll probably be going back in the 2nd half too unless things are just way out of hand. At 47.5 I wouldn't have played this, because that's 2 PAT misses... but just 1 miss in 7 tries? I'll take my chances.
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
By the way, I don't know why this Colorado line hasn't continued to balloon, as I can't see any reason to take Philly in this game... Guess Ron Jaworski and Jon Bon Jovi keep dropping the max on the game? Elway should dominate this battle from the very beginning.
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
SNEAKY Pinnacle prop for Sunday's Elway vs. Bon Jovi showdown that I think can be REAL profitable for us...

Tony Graziani over 20.5 completions (3 units +110): This game is PERFECT for Colorado to run the hurry up offense in. Philly's line will get squat for pressure on Dutton, meaning tons of real quick drives, particularly in the first half. Graziani has been allowed to run the offense at free will lately, and I expect this one to become a scorefest fast. Graz will be playing catch-up all game in my opinion. Colorado's DBs showed last week against Vegas that they can shut down the deep ball and force you to make plays inside the 10. That being said, Graz will be forced to settle for 10 yards at a time instead of 30. I expect him to crush this total for us, and anything better than -130 you're stealing.
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
Friday Night Card
Dallas (-10) vs. Nashville (3 units -105)
Dallas/Nashville under 100.5 (3 units -105)
Dallas/Nashville under 48.5 1st half (2 units -105)
Columbus (pk) @ Arizona (4 units -105)
Las Vegas (-7) vs. Grand Rapids (4 units -105)

Don't be afraid to lay the 2 TDs on Vegas. As I sort of called last week with New Orleans against Austin... and was right for the most part in... Grand Rapids ain't stopping Vegas in this one. Austin stopped New Orleans once in 9 drives... just enough to pull it off. With as good as Vegas' defense is and as bad as Grand Rapids in general is, this can get REAL ugly REAL fast. Grand Rapids struggles on the road like none other.

Also, seems like there's an agreement here on the Destroyers to cover, and in my case beat, the Ratts tomorrow night. Best of luck to us all. Hope to have a large night to avoid playing catch up the rest of the week.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
Scoreless first quarter... Dallas down a stop, which is a bit surprising, but this puppy being an under game looks incredible... neither offense has done anything well. Dallas picking up holding penalties, Nashville getting forward progress on 3rd and short on two difference occasions and not picking up the first down either time... and both kickers have missed FGs... Hutto's was makeable, Martinez's would've been a difficult kick to make. Nothing doing here... good news for us.
 

Platinum is bought not earned
Joined
Sep 21, 2003
Messages
949
Tokens
Just tuned in, is it really 0-0 late in the 1st in Dallas. What the hell is up with that? Good start to an under game....
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
No, it's 0-0 4 minutes into the 2nd quarter... lol
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
And another Nashville stop... well I'll say this... If Dallas decides they want to score two TDs in this game, it might be enough to cover....
 

You play... to win... the game
Joined
Dec 3, 2004
Messages
8,249
Tokens
Dallas better get off their asses soon because they're gonna find themselves down 3 scores to the cover quick... eventually someone's scoring and if it's Nashville that chimes in first and is up a score at the half, this can be dangerous for Dallas to not just not cover, but outright lose... and that would be a TERRIBLE thing for them.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,118,926
Messages
13,561,548
Members
100,709
Latest member
UCHJanis3
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com