Guru's Golden Picks: Arena League Week 1

[AFLGuru]

Thanks for the support guys. My advice to everyone that doesn't know anything about the game WOULD be to just monitor, and not play. I'm not a fan of playing things I'm clueless about. At least take the time to check some things out yourself if you're interested. I'm not guaranteeing anything, but I was good enough last season to cut posting plays here, and this year I'm gonna give it a shot. But keep in mind that last season I came out of the gates pretty slow and came on very strong at the end, which seems to be the reverse of most cappers from last year. Regarding the Firebirds, it's a sin that they left Albany in the first place. The Pepsi Center used to be one of the most difficult places to go play football. Eddie Brown was the all-time staple of that franchise. Then they moved and eventually turned the team over to Steve DeBerg... BIG mistake. A.D. MacPherson was a great signing by Indiana (after all I'm a football state guy... and I swear I overheard him wanting to put some cash on the Predators when they played in Orlando...), and I honestly don't know why Nashville isn't going to give him a chance to show his stuff further. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see both running QBs out there at the same time to create some interesting packages for the Kats. Anyway, sorry you lost your team. But keep your head up. The way the AFL has been expanding, it's a matter of time before somewhere in Indiana gets a team again. Though I must say.... Iowa deserves their team back much before anywhere else now that Nashville has their team back. The Barn was great.

Look forward to the feedback this coming season.

Countdown clock: 24 hours 46 minutes

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Late Game Notes for Friday

Ach, how unfortunate. For some reason James Baron is likely to miss tonight's game against Columbus. Having visited both the Kats' website and the Arena League's site enough times over the past two weeks, I'm very upset this injury wasn't reported before yesterday. Baron is worth at least one stop a game to the Kats. Very bad break for us. But I'm still confident that Nashville can keep this game close and stay within the number. Just no turnovers... Keep the ball Leon Murray... keep the ball....

In the other game, Grand Rapids appears to have decided on Nick Browder as their QB, which once again, is a worse of two evils for us in terms of over. McEwen still says it's a bit of a game time decision, but all signs point to Browder getting the call tonight. Browder doesn't throw the deep ball as well as Bishop, nor does he move around as well as him, but Browder is more accurate (read: Bishop is less accurate... it's more apt) than Bishop is on the slants and such that make the Arena League. That being said, Browder was also mistake-prone in Philadelphia, but has a much better wide receiving corps now in Grand Rapids, especially adding Chris Jackson in the offseason. Jackson will turn at least 3 Nick Browder picks into touchdowns over the course of the season... let's hope one is tonight! Arizona fields a team sans-two of their better WRs. The thing I like about this game, though, is new Rattlers' coach Todd Shell, who has the same type of system in place he did in New York. Same type of QB (veteran Shredrick Bonner vs. veteran Aaron Garcia), same type of WRs (bigger possession guys who can outjump their opponents), and will likely consequently open up the offense. I still expect this game to get off to a very fast start with both teams trying to reach the coveted 28 points in the first half. If they both reach 40, we're probably golden.

For those of you wishing to track these games, AFL is offering a direct feed to the Nashville game, which I will be very interested in, as they are offering a package for something like 18 games this season as a direct feed. However, for those of you that don't want to pay the $67 after today (today's game is free), you can access http://www.arenafootball.com and click on the gametracker on the right hand side of the screen (unless they've moved it... anyway, it's bound to be somewhere on the homepage).... Turn off your pop-up blockers for this though... took me a solid hour to figure this out week 1 last season... Computer compentency 101.

Let's start off the season right with a clean sweep!

Countdown to kickoff: 9 hours 28 minutes

--AFLGuru

 

[Roxygurl]

afl is my biggest weakness guru. my bets are made and im so pumped for the season to begin. what an addicting sport! im a season ticket holder for our afl2 team the riptide. do you know where kane claunch landed? was our qb for 3 years.~RG

 

[AFLGuru]

Correction from before... I forgot about Philadelphia from last season when I was including the records of expansion teams in their first game... so make it 4-2 in their last 6... but in fairness, New Orleans (who turned out to be pretty good) beat Philly (who turned out to be pretty bad). Philly also didn't reach the 6 wins that would've been over 5.5 last year in a real bad division. But with Graziani at the helm, it all changes... beginning this week. Too bad the rest of the world is on them too, but I would have taken Philly to win the Arena Bowl. Value in odds just isn't there.

Sorry about the mistakes.

 

[Cubsmac]

Any place post lines for AF2 when that season rolls around? Ive been a season ticket holder for the Quad-City Steamwheelers since the inaguraul season. Some great years to start off....37-1 and 2 championships in thier first two seasons. 103-3 victory over green bay, and the first ever Arena league shutout with a 41-0 victory over rival Peoria.

 

[jwblue]

Karma man has brought us a little luck in the NBA forum. Wanted to bring him in for the new year over here.


IS

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey nice job Inspades. Here's to Karma Man!


As for the lines on af2 games... to be honest with you, since the Predators play about 20 minutes from my house and the nearest af2 team is in Jacksonville, I really don't follow the game. I know there's an ass load of teams and that Quad City dominates everyone. I've looked around for lines and I haven't seen any. Perhaps you can make a request from Pinnacle, or perhaps find a local bookie with ties to Vegas. That'd be my best recommendation. I can identify some of the players, such as EJ Burt, who was the sack leader in the af2's inagural year, now on the Predators (led the team in sacks last year... great ball player).

Best of luck tonight!

Countdown to kickoff: 6 hours 20 minutes

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

Ach, Pinnacle offers such a tempting line... Will Nashville make the playoffs at +120. I wish the line was like +220... I'd be all over that. I really do believe that this team WILL get to the playoffs by winning their division, but should they not win the division, the road to the playoffs is awfully tough. The odds are on that they won't, but I can't touch that.

In terms of the other AFL props that Pinny offers for the week, it's awfully intriguing to see a line of whether or not 4 home teams will win. There are two games that I estimate to be solid home team wins... Las Vegas and Orlando... and three games that I estimate solid road wins... Arizona, Chicago, and Philadelphia. This leaves the Nashville game, which, though I still believe Nashville will cover, Columbus has a good chance of winning. That would be 3.... meaning one of Tampa or Georgia has to win... Once again, I believe I'll lay off for the odds. The odds historically say that 5 to 6 home teams will win, but for the sake of how many big teams are away from home, I'll pass.

Grand Salami in the AFL??? How the hell can ANYONE predict total points for 8 AFL games??? If someone has any in on this, please let me know... Aside from that, it looks like a crap shoot that craves action unless someone has a really good read either direction on the majority of the games.

Just wanted to update.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

Guru,
Incredible write-ups. I love the AFL and agree it is a great sport to make money. Good luck and I look forward to your write-ups this year. Thanks.

 

[AFLGuru]

Jacksorbetter:

Thanks for the support. Just afraid that I might have ended up steering us on the wrong ship in this first game now that Baron isn't playing for Nashville. Oh well... bets are in and there's nothing else we can do now but sit back and enjoy the games.

--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[AFLGuru]

In case anyone hasn't turned on the direct feed yet from the AFL it's great. Columbus' mascot looks like Storm Man from Tampa before he was replaced by the Thunder Bug permanently. Game time in just FOUR MINUTES!!!!

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah nice job Chris Speilman... way to onside kick against an expansion team to start the game:finger: ... already down a stop... 7-0 Destroyers...

 

[rugby]

Got a small play on GR ML at +400. Rattlers historically have not been a good opening day team.

GL Players...........Rugby

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

4 fumbles (lost 2) by Browder in the 1st 16 minutes. Bishop has got to be better than that.

 

[AFLGuru]

Yeah, Nick Browder is really bad. I like where we are right now. Nashville up 5 at the half, and an ample amount of points for Arizona/GR DESPITE Nick Browder's best efforts (currently 21-6 about to hopefully be 21-13). Still got that pivotal 1 minute warning to go in the half. Hope GR keeps this remotely close... because Arizona gets the ball first in the 2nd half... can't have this be a 3 score game at any given point or our over is dead).

--AFLGuru

 

[AFLGuru]

Thank you Chad!!!

Hey, way to go Mr. Salisbury. You should be proud. 4 touchdowns. 3 picks. Considering that Nashville lost an onside kick, they dominated this game, even without James Baron. I'll take those 4 units to the bank and pray that Grand Rapids can find some offense to get to the number!

Back for a recap in a bit.

 

[Jacksorbetter+]

2-0 with a lucky over. I'll take it. Thanks Guru!! Let's get em again tomorrow!

 

[AFLGuru]

2-0 start

Thank goodness Grand Rapids reached the number... Sweat that one out the entire way...

So the recap for the day...

Nashville 46 - Columbus 37 Win (+3.8 units)
Arizona 58 - Grand Rapids 38 Win (+2.73 units)

Net for the day: 2-0 +6.53 unitsarty:

Hey Chad Salisbury.... :finger: .... Let's keep it up this weekend. 2 down, 3 to go.

--AFLGuru:toast: (Brews on me if we sweep)

 

[AFLGuru]

Hey thanks jacks! No play tomorrow on the New Orleans-Georgia game... but if you want my prediction, New Orleans in a mild upset in a pretty close game. I'm using this one to help judge these two teams that are wild cards this season. We'll get 'em Sunday.

Oh, and one I forgot... Just for you Inspades!



--AFLGuru:toast:

 

[Dialer]

Thanks

Nice job tonight. Where can I follow the live scores for the AFL. Thanks