arty:
Yeah, yeah... I know, and when next week is week 6, everyone's gonna want to know what happened to week 5... lol
Yeah, this Az game is probably about where it should be now... -1.5 or -2 depending on where you look. Considering it's a cross-country trip, it's probably fair. Thanks for the notes.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Yeah, this Az game is probably about where it should be now... -1.5 or -2 depending on where you look. Considering it's a cross-country trip, it's probably fair. Thanks for the notes.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Hahaha. AFLGURU, thanks for the heads up on the Arizona/NY game. I jumped on the +5' and the +162 before they dropped it. As I have been saying for years, AFL is one sport where you can be ahead of the oddsmakers.
I am still all over Philthy tomorrow.
I am still all over Philthy tomorrow.
Arizona has a clean bill of health now, with both FBs back in the lineup, along with Evan Hlavacek, and most importantly, Shredrick Bonner. Anthony Brenner is out for them (kicker), but they've signed former NFL kickoff specialist Danny Kight to kick for them. This is scary for extra points, but there's no doubt that Kight has the leg for kickoff duties.
--AFLGuru
--AFLGuru
Review for tonight...
Nashville vs. Las Vegas over 90.5 (1 unit +115): I'll say this about tonight's game... It's entirely statistically irrelevent. This should be the lowest scoring game of the season. HOWEVER... Nashville is really due to drop 50. Las Vegas is due to score in the 3rd quarter (not been done yet this season, which is an incredible stat). I don't want to say this was a "due" play, but it more or less is. Remember we made this play at the beginning of the week in case Clint Dolezel was ready to go. He's not. Which means... ach, I don't even want to say it... Just remember if we end up losing tonight, it's because Craig Whelihan is quarterbacking Las Vegas... Someone just remind later if I lose that I bet on Craig Whelihan to do something productive. Hedging or middling if your book offers it might not be the worst of ideas, but for just 1 unit, I'm letting this ride based on "they're due." They really are. Las Vegas has got to break 40 at some point, and usually bringing in another QB sparks something in the AFL. Let's hope that's what we get tonight.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Nashville vs. Las Vegas over 90.5 (1 unit +115): I'll say this about tonight's game... It's entirely statistically irrelevent. This should be the lowest scoring game of the season. HOWEVER... Nashville is really due to drop 50. Las Vegas is due to score in the 3rd quarter (not been done yet this season, which is an incredible stat). I don't want to say this was a "due" play, but it more or less is. Remember we made this play at the beginning of the week in case Clint Dolezel was ready to go. He's not. Which means... ach, I don't even want to say it... Just remember if we end up losing tonight, it's because Craig Whelihan is quarterbacking Las Vegas... Someone just remind later if I lose that I bet on Craig Whelihan to do something productive. Hedging or middling if your book offers it might not be the worst of ideas, but for just 1 unit, I'm letting this ride based on "they're due." They really are. Las Vegas has got to break 40 at some point, and usually bringing in another QB sparks something in the AFL. Let's hope that's what we get tonight.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Note to self: Absolutely zero betting allowed on Las Vegas games until Clint Dolezel comes back. Sorry ladies and gents, but this looks pretty bad... 13-10 Nashville with 6:30 left in the 2nd... Granted, a couple scores and we're at 41 with a doable number in the 2nd half... so anything can happen... But Vegas has gone I believe it's 11 straight trips inside the 10 without scoring a TD dating back to last game.
Sorry boys and girls... This was more of a percentage play than any other. For the lone unit, I'm not going to complain. But I AM blaming Craig Whelihan... not that Zimmerman looked any better... so glad I wasted my breath on that guy. Leon Murray will be back next week... So updating the week....
Orlando (-2) @ Chicago W (+3.81 units)
Chicago (+4) vs. Orlando L (-3.17 units)
Orlando @ Chicago under 101.5 (+3.81 units)
Las Vegas @ Nashville over 90.5 L (1 unit)
Daily/weekly recap: 2-2 (+3.45 units)
YTD...
Sides Record: 7-6 (+5.37 units)
Totals Record: 10-4 (+15.12 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 2-3 (-1.87 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)
Composite Record
YTD: 20-17
Net: +15.17 units
Plays for tomorrow...
Philadelphia (-2) @ Dallas (3 units -105)
Arizona @ New York under 113 (2 units -105)
Arizona (+6.5) @ New York (2 units -105)
Arizona ml @ New York (1 unit +162)
Looking at a play in the LA/Colorado game... the Columbus/Grand Rapids game makes me sick just looking at it, thus I believe I'm laying off, though I'll say that over is probably the play with the way that Grand Rapids plays defense. I think I might reserve these for 2nd halfers. We'll how things go. Thank goodness they're not televising that Grand Rapids game tomorrow. I would've cried if I had to watch that game somehow. I've got Philly/Dallas as does most of the nation. If there's anyone in either the northeast or Arizona that would like to provide updates of that game, they'd be appreciated. Also, gonna like some updates from the west coast on the Colorado/LA game as well, even if the bets aren't made for 2nd half purposes (and because LA sucks... just figure I'd throw that in there). And no one needs to watch the Grand Rapids game thank goodness... Unfortunately, I have to take notes on the game, which is what I dread most come 3:00 EST tomorrow...
Check back in the morning for updates.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Orlando (-2) @ Chicago W (+3.81 units)
Chicago (+4) vs. Orlando L (-3.17 units)
Orlando @ Chicago under 101.5 (+3.81 units)
Las Vegas @ Nashville over 90.5 L (1 unit)
Daily/weekly recap: 2-2 (+3.45 units)
YTD...
Sides Record: 7-6 (+5.37 units)
Totals Record: 10-4 (+15.12 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 2-3 (-1.87 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)
Composite Record
YTD: 20-17
Net: +15.17 units
Plays for tomorrow...
Philadelphia (-2) @ Dallas (3 units -105)
Arizona @ New York under 113 (2 units -105)
Arizona (+6.5) @ New York (2 units -105)
Arizona ml @ New York (1 unit +162)
Looking at a play in the LA/Colorado game... the Columbus/Grand Rapids game makes me sick just looking at it, thus I believe I'm laying off, though I'll say that over is probably the play with the way that Grand Rapids plays defense. I think I might reserve these for 2nd halfers. We'll how things go. Thank goodness they're not televising that Grand Rapids game tomorrow. I would've cried if I had to watch that game somehow. I've got Philly/Dallas as does most of the nation. If there's anyone in either the northeast or Arizona that would like to provide updates of that game, they'd be appreciated. Also, gonna like some updates from the west coast on the Colorado/LA game as well, even if the bets aren't made for 2nd half purposes (and because LA sucks... just figure I'd throw that in there). And no one needs to watch the Grand Rapids game thank goodness... Unfortunately, I have to take notes on the game, which is what I dread most come 3:00 EST tomorrow...
Check back in the morning for updates.
--AFLGuru:toast:
I'm not gonna lie to you stickie... The percentages all say that a defensive or special teams TD WILL be scored in any given game, especially with two decent defenses or kick return squads. I would say in the Dallas/Philly game it's probably a good call. Both teams have solid kick return games. And the way Tony Graziani has been playing lately, wouldn't surprise me if he threw 6 points away either.
That being said, it's not a prop I'm investing in, but it's not a bad percentage call at +115.
--AFLGuru:toast:
That being said, it's not a prop I'm investing in, but it's not a bad percentage call at +115.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Two props of intrigue, one of which I'm betting, one of which I'm not...
The one I'm not is Michael Bishop over 47.5 rushing yards. Columbus has the worst rush defense in the AFL at roughly 46 yards per game allowed. Michael Bishop in his two starts ran for 100 and 74 yards respectively. Sparky McEwen is letting Bishop roam freely, which, in this game can mean LOTS of yards to a QB. Last running QB Columbus played against was Leon Murray in week 1, who rushed for 37 yards. Bishop should eclipse this number fairly easily. Still, it's the AFL, and I can't bet on a guy to basically rush for 50 yards in a game.
The prop I am interested in taking....
John Dutton over 21.5 completions (2 units -132): With the exception of a week 1 defeat at Las Vegas, LA has allowed each QB they've played to get to at least this mark in completions, and usually allows about 40 passes a game thanks to the up-tempo, shoot it out style they play. Colorado, on the other hand, will take lots of 6-10 yard shots and do them quickly, as John Dutton does run the hurry-up offense at certain points. LA's defense has been shaky at best, especially in the 2nd halfs of games. Colorado also chooses screens instead of runs often times, which creates us many pass completion opportunities. Typically, I don't like playing on props, but this one I believe is too good to pass up for a small play.
--AFLGuru:toast:
The one I'm not is Michael Bishop over 47.5 rushing yards. Columbus has the worst rush defense in the AFL at roughly 46 yards per game allowed. Michael Bishop in his two starts ran for 100 and 74 yards respectively. Sparky McEwen is letting Bishop roam freely, which, in this game can mean LOTS of yards to a QB. Last running QB Columbus played against was Leon Murray in week 1, who rushed for 37 yards. Bishop should eclipse this number fairly easily. Still, it's the AFL, and I can't bet on a guy to basically rush for 50 yards in a game.
The prop I am interested in taking....
John Dutton over 21.5 completions (2 units -132): With the exception of a week 1 defeat at Las Vegas, LA has allowed each QB they've played to get to at least this mark in completions, and usually allows about 40 passes a game thanks to the up-tempo, shoot it out style they play. Colorado, on the other hand, will take lots of 6-10 yard shots and do them quickly, as John Dutton does run the hurry-up offense at certain points. LA's defense has been shaky at best, especially in the 2nd halfs of games. Colorado also chooses screens instead of runs often times, which creates us many pass completion opportunities. Typically, I don't like playing on props, but this one I believe is too good to pass up for a small play.
--AFLGuru:toast:
k: ~RGLate line movement is interesting and entertaining by my standards. From where I'm coming from, it's hilarious to see these lines move back whence they came because some guy on covers has this "800 unit play" or something like that... I'm making that up, but anyone that has read covers understands what I'm talking about. People blindly follow, and the lines go back our direction. Might have one more very small play later on if lines keep moving the direction in which they are. Like a half unit play. We'll see.
--AFLGuru:toast:
--AFLGuru:toast:
