Guess the day the DOW hits 29,000 ???

[Ricboff]

SIX straight green candles on the SPY, the streak may finally come to an end (stale green light)...

Lagarde speaks on Friday across the pond, also German /France manufacturing data come out and most pundits see improving numbers. Coupled with Lagarde speaking we could likely see a weaker USD, good for GLD. This is just speculation on my part ...GLD has reclaimed her 8 ema INTRA-day, the the day is young- can she hold it?

 

[Ricboff]

GLD

6 month daily

50 sma

very tight trading range the last 4 days, something has to give and when it goes (in either direction) it may be with conviction (higher vol, larger breadth candle) as stops/buy limits to get triggered. Downside , as mentioned . it CANT lose $136, cant form a lower low, will trigger stops and could lead to a long red candle or a gap down. BUT a hold of that level would form a double bottom and head into Dec/Jan ,two traditionally very good months for Gold. A double bottom on a bullish candle day is buy entry/add do. Upside? got to break this channel...resistance; 50 sma then the gap fill at $142. I'm a gold bug right now.....


SPY continues above its 8 ema....its action is mirroring Jan 2018. SIX straight positive weeks on the spy, ALL with green candles. popcorn-eatinggif.....

 

[Recon792]

just keeps on chugging along - -nothing to see here

 

[Ricboff]

'The Unstoppable Spy' ........ Sell calls , sure, big pass for me. I cant even find a sector/country etf i like. The financials (XLF) are two standard deviations from the normal price action on the high side! It formed a double top today with an indecision candle-- could be judgement day for that sector tomorrow

RSI is now over 70 (massively overbought) on the SPY . It has been over 70 once in 2019, didnt stay there long- pullback approx 8% (china/us trade war escalation). CCI is showing a divergence as its forming lower highs to the markest higher highs. Red flags . Certainly doesnt mean it cant grind higher . Red hammer patterns (seen today) and inverted hammer patterns do carry predictive value (at a swing high, or swing low), an alert; may get a chnage in direction (BUT it did form a higher high and higher low today). I think we test the 8 ema tomorrow

Nov/Dec are historically great months for the market. Unless craziness hits likely we get a pull back then the traditional Santa Claus rally to new highs ?....anyway, my 2-cents



XLF (financials)

6 mth daily

a 10% rise since early Oct...awesome for any that played the sector............. indecision candle at a double top? has gas to break? ..

 

[Ricboff]

SPY e-minis have formed a lower low (in fact it was lower than MOnday's low). ...and broke the diagonal from this current awesome upward trendline. Its ABOVE that trendline right now...today is a big day

 

[Recon792]

TGT with a nice beat... might pull the market up

 

[Ricboff]

CRUSHED it too boot...............great great fight on the spy to hold yesterday's low...haha. Awesome. If she loses it 310.43 is the 8 ema, for the highly risk tolerant an intra-day bounce of it, riding the trend.

 

[Ricboff]

no spike in GLD?....'they' are suppressing it!! @)...damn....

just as the SPY was over 70 on the RSI in late April it was an event that sent it packing (a tweet on us/trade). We get negative trade news again with a severly overbought SPY :think2:..

recon, you had called something like this.

 

[Recon792]

Oy... looks like vix and uvxy on the move.. maybe a few red days ahead

 

[PatsFan1283]

I know this is more of a TA thread but any thoughts on the ATL fed GDP projections coming in sub 1%? They're usually not too far off once you get this far into a quarter from what I've seen (unless something out of nowhere happens like the trade purchases being moved forward because of tariffs)

A quarter doesn't mean much but if that continues can't imagine fed only cuts 1x next year like market anticipates.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/atlanta-fed-gdp-economy/2019/11/19/id/942359/

 

[Ricboff]

nah, this thread is for anything markets including rants whcih i've had my share of .....chime in anytime, need more minds


dunno, so much unknown globally, Euro manufacturing data tomorrow. A pick up around the globe shoudl help all around . Trade shit never ends. US consumer holding the fort.

Fed minutes just out, and how's this for a decisive stance ;


Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Fed was effectively on hold with interest rates and said that would only change if there was a “material” change in the U.S. economic outlook.

 

[Ricboff]

was cool to spend some time in beautiful Santa Monica, rental clubs were crapola had fun nonetheless. Paired with a retired senior couple and a transplanted New Yorker powerful accent at all. ...struggled with yardages, flushed a few irons we are talking FLUSHED ...fuckin' THE Greatest Sport in the World.... Housing prices in an around the area are off the charts; $1,500,000 for a 1700 square foot house? with median household income at $70 kish...cmon........the smell of weed while walking along the pacific ocean is the new normal? Kinda sad to see the amount of homeless around, geez the two extremes in full sight; the ultra rich and the destitute in Grand Ole USA. ...Did visit a Tesla shop near the hotel-- waht a fuckin'car. How can electric not be the future? the lowest model is $39,000 USD--certainly an affordable car. A chap in our group is a car aficionado , he has had the Tesla 3 for two years, bottom line for him ? 'its by far the best car ive ever had' . Yikes!!! he owns a porsche No maintenance bills other than tires, FREE upgrades from Tesla downloaded to the car while he's sleeping/working, no more gas bills. He said he has a friedn that bought yrs ago and has over $225,000 km on it- no issues, maintenance bills have been tire related . The battery? 'usually' its a 'well' issue and ya dont need to repalce the entire battery. Tesla provide an 8 yr warranty , wtf.....Apparently other car companies are getting all-electric at the manufacturing stage, do they have a choice?

i'll touch base on the Dimensional seminar later......market candles look good!! UUP with a massive green candle, punished GLD. Gold to test previous support levels ..MUST HOLD ($136), stops to be triggered if she cant , including mine

 

[Recon792]

Good info.. Tesla owners love their cars for sure.

 

[Ricboff]

rightfully so and it appears its not just appealing to the 'save the planet ' folks. Money talks, ... comparing a $39,000 gas car Vs a $39,000 electric car? not a fair fight. Heck, i drop $5,000 in car gas yearly, easy !! To say nothing of maintenance fees. In addition, some states/provinces are providing financial incentive to go electric, as high as $5k back. And it looks like the real push to go electric is coming from Asia;

http://theconversation.com/the-electric-vehicle-revolution-will-come-from-china-not-the-us-116102

The electric vehicle revolution is coming, but it won’t be driven by the U.S. Instead, China will be at the forefront.
My research on EVs, dating back a decade, convinces me that this global transformation in mobility, from petroleum-fueled vehicles to electric ones, will come sooner than later. The shift is already happening in China, which is the world’s largest automobile market, with 23 million cars sold in 2018. As Western countries approach peak car ownership, there are still hundreds of millions of Chinese families that don’t own a car at all – much less two or more.
Many of them are buying electric cars. By 2015, electric vehicle sales in China had surpassed U.S. levels. In 2018, Chinese sales topped 1.1 million cars, more than 55% of all electric vehicles sold in the world, and more than three times as many as Chinese customers had bought two years earlier. U.S. electric vehicle sales that year were just 358,000.


A key element of an electric vehicle’s price is the cost of its batteries – and China already makes more than half of the world’s electric vehicle batteries. Battery prices continue to fall; industry analysts now suggest that within five years it will be cheaper to buy an electric car than a gas- or diesel-powered one.
Forecasts predict the Chinese producing as much as 70% of the world’s electric vehicle batteries by 2021, even as the demand for electric car batteries grows.


Huge government backing

China has a fledgling, but ambitious, automobile industry. It has never been able to match the efficiency and quality of established automakers at making gas-powered vehicles, but electric vehicles are easier to build, giving Chinese firms a new opportunity to compete.
The Chinese government, therefore, has chosen to highlight electric vehicles as one of 10 commercial sectors central to its “Made in China” effort to boost advanced industrial technology. Government efforts include using billions of dollars to subsidize manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries, and encouraging businesses and consumers to buy them.
The government is also aware that electric vehicles could help solve some of China’s most pressing energy and environmental concerns: Massive air pollution chokes its major cities, national security officials are worried about how much oil the country imports and China is now the nation contributing most to global climate change emissions.
New companies

Scores of Chinese auto-making companies have formed to profit from these subsidies. A major player is BYD, which stands for “Build Your Dreams,” headquartered in Shenzhen. More than a decade ago, billionaire investor Warren Buffett bought about a quarter of the company for US$232 million – a share that is now worth more than $1.5 billion.
The company’s initial plans to export vehicles to the U.S. proved premature and fizzled. BYD instead started to focus mainly on the Chinese auto market, as well as building electric buses for the global market, which it now dominates.
If BYD’s electric car plans falter, though, there are plenty of other Chinese firms ready to pick up the slack.


Further support

In addition to the government subsidies to ensure BYD and its competitors have lots of customers, new government regulations are kicking in. The Chinese government now requires all automakers who sell in China, whether domestic or foreign firms, to make a certain percentage of their sales electric, through a complex crediting formula. The mandate will get stricter over time, perhaps requiring each company to make at least 7% of their sales electric by 2025.
Major foreign car companies have large investments in China and can hardly afford to abandon the market. Volkswagen, for example, now sells 40% of its output in China, which is a main reason the company is pushing hard to develop electric vehicles.
China’s domestic automakers have largely not yet engaged in the export market. Electric vehicle industry analyst Jose Pontes says there are three reasons for their reluctance: First, the Chinese market is big enough to absorb their current production. Second, many car companies in China are utterly unknown in the West, so customers would be wary of buying from a strange brand. And third, their cars do not yet comply with strict safety regulations in the U.S. and Europe.
However, all of those obstacles can be overcome with time and money. It’s possible Chinese electric car companies could enter the low- to middle-income market in the West, as Volkswagen did 60 years ago.
If – or when – that happens, inexpensive, efficient electric cars may spread through the West from China, surpassing Tesla and other American and European electric vehicle efforts. Only Western government attempts to protect domestic automakers with tariffs and other trade barriers could derail this development.

 

[Ricboff]

hey poster bullets, a move to the upside ...(<)<


ZIOP

6 month daily

think i posted in the thread in which u brought this stock up ; $5.50 could easily be had if it breaks the consolidation to the upside, adn DONE. SEVERELY overbought , everytime its been at this level, that is at this severely overbought STOIC level it has snapped back , just saying.........news two days ago? a gap up and STRaIGHT BUYING........ Damn thing is up 30% in no time, lol. Hopefully it can re-base at $5.20 ish, before starting another ascent...GL!!!!!!

 

[Ricboff]

GLD

6 month daily

50 sma

very tight trading range the last 4 days, something has to give and when it goes (in either direction) it may be with conviction (higher vol, larger breadth candle) as stops/buy limits to get triggered. Downside , as mentioned . it CANT lose $136, cant form a lower low, will trigger stops and could lead to a long red candle or a gap down. BUT a hold of that level would form a double bottom and head into Dec/Jan ,two traditionally very good months for Gold. A double bottom on a bullish candle day is buy entry/add do. Upside? got to break this channel...resistance; 50 sma then the gap fill at $142. I'm a gold bug right now.....


SPY continues above its 8 ema....its action is mirroring Jan 2018. SIX straight positive weeks on the spy, ALL with green candles. popcorn-eatinggif.....

the day is young, ...

 

[bullets]

hey poster bullets, a move to the upside ...(<)<


ZIOP

6 month daily

think i posted in the thread in which u brought this stock up ; $5.50 could easily be had if it breaks the consolidation to the upside, adn DONE. SEVERELY overbought , everytime its been at this level, that is at this severely overbought STOIC level it has snapped back , just saying.........news two days ago? a gap up and STRaIGHT BUYING........ Damn thing is up 30% in no time, lol. Hopefully it can re-base at $5.20 ish, before starting another ascent...GL!!!!!!

Hey Ricboff, thanks for the plug. I am very bullish on Ziopharm and no one is getting my shares this cheap.

I know you are a chart guy but some great stuff is happening with the company. Ziop just came out with favorable news on their IL-12 program which is helping shrink tumors on inoperable brain cancer.

Next up is the Ash annual meeting on December 7th where there is suppose to be trial updates on their IL-15 TCR program with sleeping beauty.
https://ash.confex.com/ash/2019/webprogram/Paper131419.html

Their biggest one of all is the TCR with SB phase 2 trial that Dr. Steve Rosenberg with the NCI is running. I'm hoping for some updates in the next months as they are already enrolling patients. They say they can treat 80% of solid tumors.

This little company is on the radar for a buyout or partnership with a big pharama company as well. Not to mention they have a great management team in place.

As you can tell, I'm excited!!

Thanks again.

 

[Ricboff]

t


November and December have historically been good for the markets. NOT last Dec@).

into Nov we go after a scorching oct.

Since 1950, Nov averages approx +1.50%

Nov 2016- +3.42%
Nov 2017- + 2.81%
Nov 2018- +1. 79%

keep in mind the SPY is at all-time highs and up over 23% for 2019..

tomorrow markets closed, Friday a short day.............and Nov 2019 follows Nov history...............actually a CRACKER of a month...... +3.82%


6 mth daily

(<)<

 

[Recon792]

SPY is the runaway train at this point

 

[Buster]

SPY is the runaway train at this point