the market is uptrending. And historically , its up approx 70% of the time. So going short means ya better pick your spots, and ya better be real good -- and that aint me. I have gone short in the past and when i do its with a levered product and not a lot of size- an overnight holding and sell the next day kinda thing.
u like anything right now? here's hoping for a 3-5% pullback, a test of 302 ( note from the chart it tested it twice back to back days about 8 days ago , only to bounce off)
to add Carl, the SPY is above both its 50 and 200 sma. Shorting is this environment you're betting agasint the trend. Abd certainly not when its above the 8 ema (unless its very stretched from it, but even then just not worth it).With that said, strongly believe the need to define one's 'trading edge'. Be comfortable with it. What's comfy for one, may not for another
November and December have historically been good for the markets. NOT last Dec@)
.
into Nov we go after a scorching oct.
Since 1950, Nov averages approx +1.50%
Nov 2016- +3.42%
Nov 2017- + 2.81%
Nov 2018- +1. 79%
keep in mind the SPY is at all-time highs and up over 23% for 2019..
November and December have historically been good for the markets. NOT last Dec@)
.into Nov we go after a scorching oct.
Since 1950, Nov averages approx +1.50%
Nov 2016- +3.42%
Nov 2017- + 2.81%
Nov 2018- +1. 79%
keep in mind the SPY is at all-time highs and up over 23% for 2019..
food for thought. Said in the past the killer for trading is emotion.
awhile back I asked a VERY successful trader his take on neutralizing emotion from the rational mind for trading.( This chap both day trades and swing trades, in this environment of all time highs he's day trading only. )He replied with this;
do the below for 1 month and then tell me what you’ve learned:
This exercise will force you to do 3 BIG things:
One month of the above is the best prescription I can give you to get you to a place where your emotional response is secondary to your rational response
awhile back I asked a VERY successful trader his take on neutralizing emotion from the rational mind for trading.( This chap both day trades and swing trades, in this environment of all time highs he's day trading only. )He replied with this;
do the below for 1 month and then tell me what you’ve learned:
- Pick only 1 thing to trade: SPY for example or QQQ or XIU-T or a stock that you’re familiar with
- Before market opens use an inconsequential amount of money and set a limit buy order or short order
- Identify the target for profit on the trade and the “exit-line” if the trade doesn’t work out and set the protective stop order
- DON’T touch the trade but watch it (exit only just before the day is over with profit or loss)
This exercise will force you to do 3 BIG things:
- Pick direction
- Affirm that you don’t know what will happen so the exit is ready to go
- Accept that you can’t “control” where it goes (which will force you to “eat” your emotion)
One month of the above is the best prescription I can give you to get you to a place where your emotional response is secondary to your rational response
the SPY riding the 8 ema, refuses to give her away..
however, the public Soap Opera Theatrics begin tomorrow with this impeachment stuff, it hasnt made a dent into the SPY. We shall see if it can cause some trauma over time , certainly the gold bugs are looking for a little love ---need a dose of fear + UUP crushed
GLD
2 yr weekly
week (candle) is very early, a loss of $136 and we see $132 tested
6 month daily
significant area. Very good candle today; hammer off the gap fill . A break below, however, and we could damn see the 200 SMA tested . a higher high and higher low tomorrow and the gap at $142 Is a target.
gold works inversly to the USD ( the correlation is not 100%), UUP is setting for a swing high, more evidence Gold may have traction
however, the public Soap Opera Theatrics begin tomorrow with this impeachment stuff, it hasnt made a dent into the SPY. We shall see if it can cause some trauma over time , certainly the gold bugs are looking for a little love ---need a dose of fear + UUP crushed
GLD
2 yr weekly
week (candle) is very early, a loss of $136 and we see $132 tested
6 month daily
significant area. Very good candle today; hammer off the gap fill . A break below, however, and we could damn see the 200 SMA tested . a higher high and higher low tomorrow and the gap at $142 Is a target.
gold works inversly to the USD ( the correlation is not 100%), UUP is setting for a swing high, more evidence Gold may have traction
Powell was a non-event. Think this impeachment stuff is going to amount to a glamorous dog and pony show.
A remarkably resilient SPY, yet another bounce off the 8 ema,...
xbi took out its ceiling intra-day and is above its 200 SMA.. This thing in the matter of 6 weeks is goign to go from (xbi/spy) 2-standard deviations below to 2 -standard deviations above normal price action, haha (its not there yet).
the day is young
A remarkably resilient SPY, yet another bounce off the 8 ema,...
xbi took out its ceiling intra-day and is above its 200 SMA.. This thing in the matter of 6 weeks is goign to go from (xbi/spy) 2-standard deviations below to 2 -standard deviations above normal price action, haha (its not there yet).
the day is young
that trade news didnt put a fuckin' dent in the SPY........ the algos said 'ya gotta do better than that!!' @).The last 5 days for the SPY have been for the day traders. ANOTHER beauty bounce off the 8 ema, intra-day...
global equity market is showing some bearish reversals tho-- specifically emerging markets, europe . Defensive's like TLT, GLD further evidence of swing lows......
UUP
3 month daily
was saying the USD is shpwing signs of a swing high-nope, not yet...lets see todays candle.....could help gld reclaimed its 8 ema
......on a regression channel GLD is nearly two-standard deviations from normal price action for 2019. Seasonality;
xlre/vnq. Real estate appears to be fnishing a downleg that shed approx 6%. good candles on both today, and they are both nearly off the chart; xlre/ spy, vnq/spy regression channel for 2019
.The last 5 days for the SPY have been for the day traders. ANOTHER beauty bounce off the 8 ema, intra-day...global equity market is showing some bearish reversals tho-- specifically emerging markets, europe . Defensive's like TLT, GLD further evidence of swing lows......
UUP
3 month daily
was saying the USD is shpwing signs of a swing high-nope, not yet...lets see todays candle.....could help gld reclaimed its 8 ema
......on a regression channel GLD is nearly two-standard deviations from normal price action for 2019. Seasonality;
xlre/vnq. Real estate appears to be fnishing a downleg that shed approx 6%. good candles on both today, and they are both nearly off the chart; xlre/ spy, vnq/spy regression channel for 2019
haha Recon she is reslient..for now. SIX consecutive days it bounced off the 8 ema intrday, and FINALLY i played it @)...and out
UUP with a red candle and a lower low, likely helped gld today....good good good
'xlre/vnq. Real estate appears to be fnishing a downleg that shed approx 6%. good candles on both today, and they are both nearly off the chart; xlre/ spy, vnq/spy regression channel for 2019'
, nice day...BOTH reclaimed their 8 ema's, both remain well oversold and have a cross on the macd. Probability has them to continue outperforming the SPY short term
i'll be in California next week...fairways and greens.............@)
...and outUUP with a red candle and a lower low, likely helped gld today....good good good
'xlre/vnq. Real estate appears to be fnishing a downleg that shed approx 6%. good candles on both today, and they are both nearly off the chart; xlre/ spy, vnq/spy regression channel for 2019'
, nice day...BOTH reclaimed their 8 ema's, both remain well oversold and have a cross on the macd. Probability has them to continue outperforming the SPY short term i'll be in California next week...fairways and greens.............@)
thks, its just for a few days late next week, gotta get on a course!! Actually ever heard of Dimensional ? my new accounting firm uses Dimensional as its Wealrth Management arm. The tab is on them so I said sure, lol. But % of aum is a no go for me...at least while i still my mental faculties intact @). " Science of Investing' -- okie dokie, i'll share any useful info
SPY
6 mth daily
Broke to the upside Friday, with higher vol. $310 now becomes its new short term floor again, nothing changes , raise eyebrows until we get a CLOSE below the 8 ema (3:50 pm and see the candle). Until then, ride the Gravy Train. Of course any swing traders have stops in place at price points of their choice. This is a VERY healthy chart.
have had no nutty tweets, it appears this Impeachment stuff has Trump's full attention and 95% of his tweets are about it. So that's good, he's distracted....
inside candle day for GLD-- pretty good considering the SPY broke to an all-time high!! I'm likely adding to Gold if it reclaims her 8 ema. My stop is crystal clear ; just below Tuesday's candle
vnq/xlre-- to test a resisrtance level next week ;their respective 50 sma
. " Science of Investing' -- okie dokie, i'll share any useful info SPY
6 mth daily
Broke to the upside Friday, with higher vol. $310 now becomes its new short term floor again, nothing changes , raise eyebrows until we get a CLOSE below the 8 ema (3:50 pm and see the candle). Until then, ride the Gravy Train. Of course any swing traders have stops in place at price points of their choice. This is a VERY healthy chart.
have had no nutty tweets, it appears this Impeachment stuff has Trump's full attention and 95% of his tweets are about it. So that's good, he's distracted
....inside candle day for GLD-- pretty good considering the SPY broke to an all-time high!! I'm likely adding to Gold if it reclaims her 8 ema. My stop is crystal clear ; just below Tuesday's candle
vnq/xlre-- to test a resisrtance level next week ;their respective 50 sma
