Florida (ML) over Oklahoma **
First off, I want to say I got this moneyline play last week when the line was still at Florida -2.5. Because of the juice I would never even think about doing this if the line was a FG or more. I did this play originally as an insurance policy of sorts because I bet OU before the season to win the BCS title at +800. If I took Florida minus the points and OU covered the spread, then I would lose both bets. So doing it this way guarantees me a profit either way, no matter who wins. Obviously I would rather win my bigger payout +800 play for OU to win the national championship. But I'm not very confident that OU can win this game, or even cover the spread where it stands now.
With the 33 bowls behind us, and the stats we have in front of us, I think it now makes this game a little easier bet. The Big 12 has simply not been impressive in any of their bowl games against a team with any kind of a pulse. The only game where a Big 12 team won as a dog was Nebraska as a small 2 point dog to Clemson. Otherwise the Big 12 is 2-4 ATS so far in their bowls. Yes, the Big 12 and SEC have pretty much identical bowl records at 4-2 and 5-2. But look at how the Big 12 has struggled to win their bowl games over some very mediocre teams. And Texas Tech lost as a favorite over an SEC team. The SEC has had 3 teams from their conference win straight up as dogs in their bowl games. The only two losses were a South Carolina team who was struggling at the end of the seson, and was expected to lose. And Alabama, who was coming off a disappointing SEC title game loss, and then going up against an undefeated Utah team. The motivation factor difference for both of those teams in that game was off the charts. In the end the SEC was definitely the more impressive of the two conferences this bowl season.
I think public perception is what is keeping this line from getting completely out of hand. OU is still perceived as having the best offense in this game based on their numbers. But the reality of the situation is OU has put up their numbers against defenses that have an average ranking of #93, while Florida has averaged scoring 51 ppg in their last 8 games against opponenets who average #23 in the country in defense...HUGE difference. The reality is OU hasn't faced a defense that ranks in the top 50 in their last 7 games, while Florida hasn't played a defense ranked any lower than #38 in their last 7 games against Division 1 teams. So it's very possible that Florida has the better offense and 75% of the public doesn't have a clue about it by looking at the raw stats.. The most important thing is Florida has been through some better wars than OU coming down the stretch. While the only team with a pulse that OU played in their 7 game span since Texas was OSU. And this is the key game you need to look at if your capping this game. The reason is because OSU is basically the only strong running team that OU played all year. And OSU was very successful running on OU that day for about 200 yards. QB Zac Robinson had 90 yards himself. So you have to believe that Tebow can probably get over the 100 yard mark if he's not too busy distributing the ball to his skill people. The point is OU wasn't able to stop a balanced team, and got gashed for 41 points that day. Luckily the OU offense bailed them out of that game. But the key here is whatever OSU can do, Florida can do better. Rushing and defense mean more to me than any other aspect of capping. That's why I'm a big believer in the running dogs system, that went 9-5 ATS in the bowls this season. Florida is by far the better running team in this game (+1.2), which is a pretty big gap. So your looking at Florida having the better running team and better defense. Which is a pretty deadly combination in these bowls.
On the defensive side of the ball, Florida has held their opponents to just 13 ppg while OU is giving up over 24 ppg. And haven't given up less than 21 in any of their last 8 games. And averaged giving up 31 ppg in that span. This is just not very good defense. I don't care if your blowing teams out or not. The defense is always the first thing I look at when capping games. If your not playing good defense or good special teams, I've found that 9 out of 10 times your offense can't bail you out in games like this when playing another team of equal or greater value on offense. And better on defense. And you have to take the coaching records into consideration. I said to myself this season that I wouldn't make a bet on OU again in a BCS game until Stoops wins one again. And right now in the last 4 BCS bowls he's 0-4. And only 4-5 SU in bowl games. While Urban Meyer is 26-5 ATS in his coaching career in non conferecne games dating back to Utah. Pretty damned good. So there's no denying what OU is up against here. They'll be going to Miami and playing a Florida team with a Heisman Trophy winner, better running game, better special teams, better big game coach (up to this point), better defense. And in their own backyard.
Although I can see OU putting up a much better fight than they did last year against WV, unless Florida plays a game like they did against Ole Miss, and OU plays a very clean game, I don't see the Sooners coming out with a win. The only questions to be answered about this game is OU's lines versus Florida's. This is where I'm not sure who has the advantage. If OU is able to establish a running game behind Brown, and especially Madu, who I think is as good as Murray, then I will at least give the Sooners a fighting chance. Bama ran for over 4 ypc on Florida. Which gives me a little hope. I'm also curious to see how Percy Harvin comes out in this game. Having endured a high ankle sprain myself, I know this kind of injury is very nagging and not easy to get over. And also very easy to reaggrivate. So if he's not 100% for the game this also helps OU's cause on defense. I can see things going wrong for Florida. But i can see many more things going right for them. In all honesty, I'm not crazy about this line where it stands at -5. But I would still take Florida. I would just make it a smaller play. I've done very well in picking BCS title games over the past 10 years. And I don't like going against OU like I have been doing in their last few BCS games. But I think Florida is the right side.
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Something I wanted to say about the Big 12. Yes, they are for the moment top heavy on offensive teams and bad defenses. But strengths of conferences all run in cycles. Many here may be too young to remember, but dating back to even the mid 90's with the great Nebraska teams, the Big 12 was the dominate conference in college football. As well as through the 70's where the Big 12 beat the SEC on a regular basis. And as pissed off as Texas fans are about the BCS situation this year, it very well could be a blessing in diguise for Texas by not having to go down to Miami to play Florida in this game. To me, Texas looks like a program on the way up, with OC Muschamp leading the defense. And I'm sure their recruiting will go through the roof now that he's there, and knowing he is their future head coach. I think in the long run when it comes to recruiting, that winning a Fiesta Bowl game over Ohio State goes much further than a possible blowout to the hands of Florida. It's much easier to build on next year. With OU, after their blowout loss to WV, I'm very surprised to see them in this game. Stoops is to be commened for what he's done in bringing them back. But I don't think I've ever seen a team get blown out in their bowl game the year before and come back and win the national title. Bowl wins, or at the very least close bowl losses are a HUGE plus to have a building block for next year. Big losses don't help that cause. This was pretty much an all or nothing year for OU. They lose a lot of key players form this team, including 8 on offense including the entire offensivel line. And I just heard tonight there is already a website up that QB Bradford is going to declare for the NFL after this game. So by next season the balance of power will have shifted heavily in Texas favor. And they should have a pretty good defense to represent the Big 12 next season. Although Stoops has done a fantastic job in turning the OU program around, i also know he is very stubborn. And doesn't like to make changes in his coaching staff. But if things go south for OU in this game, and they can't keep it close, I hope he starts making some changes in his defensive coaching staff. So if OU loses, I almost hope the game isn't close, because 0-5 in BCS bowls isn't acceptable to a die-hard OU fan like myself.
:toast:
arty:
