RedRock...i won't be listing the running dogs in here..I have a partner that does this system with me. He prefers not to show it to the public..And I concurred..I hope this doesn't upset people. But we both have our reasons why we don't want them posted..And later on I might go into to more detail why....But I can say that i will be telling you if the teams I select here are what I consider the running dogs in a particular game...Good luck
ope:
Louisville (+4) over KSU *** (Win)
Louisville-KSU (UNDER 56) ** (Loss)
UCONN (-12) over Baylor ***
Wake Forest (+4) over FSU **
Colorado-West Virginia (OVER 56) ** (Loss)
Missouri-Buffalo (OVER 71) **
Marshall (+8) over Southern Miss **** (Best Bet)
San Jose St. (+8.5) over Stanford **
Florida Atlantic (+7 hook) over Minnesota ***
Ole Miss (-6.5) over Vandy **
Iowa State (ML +115) over UNLV **
Tennessee (+8) over Florida ***
Arizona (-2.5) over UCLA **
Michigan St. (-8.5) over Notre Dame **
Toledo (+7) over Fresno St. ***
I'll have some short writeups on these games tonight.
Louisville-KSU (UNDER 56) ** (Loss)
UCONN (-12) over Baylor ***
Wake Forest (+4) over FSU **
Colorado-West Virginia (OVER 56) ** (Loss)
Missouri-Buffalo (OVER 71) **
Marshall (+8) over Southern Miss **** (Best Bet)
San Jose St. (+8.5) over Stanford **
Florida Atlantic (+7 hook) over Minnesota ***
Ole Miss (-6.5) over Vandy **
Iowa State (ML +115) over UNLV **
Tennessee (+8) over Florida ***
Arizona (-2.5) over UCLA **
Michigan St. (-8.5) over Notre Dame **
Toledo (+7) over Fresno St. ***
I'll have some short writeups on these games tonight.
Like all the plays except for these: Ole/Miss Vandy because Vandy has better numbers and should win this game ATS if not straight up. Tennessee is a coin toss yes you have a tough Tennessee team playing at home as over a TD dog but you also have a team that plays not only to win but also to cover the spread with Florida. Florida has a great record of doing that against Tennessee including a double digit loss Tenn took last season. Frankly a team that is 1-1 with UAB as their win doesn't tell me they have what it takes to match up to Florida. Last play I just don"t get becuase they are dominated in virtually every categorey is the Marshall play.. I know you are thinking that is a dog against an over rated competitor but I was on Maryland heavy and don"t agree on this at all unless you know something I don't..
Marshall (+8) over Southern Miss **** (Best Bet)..This is a game between two very evenly matched teams. On paper it doesn't appear so. But this is mainly because of the competetion each team has faced. I feel like overall that Marshall has faced the better competetion. Especially the better offenses. They had to face a big experienced Wisconsin team on the road. Then they had to come home and face their first conference foe. Not easy to do. Southern Miss went on the road to face one of the best defenses in the country..But Auburn isn't going to scare anybody with their offense. They then travelled to Arkansas State and played a middle of the pack Sunbelt team in a close game. The Southern Miss defensive numbers I believe are not quite as good as what they appear.. Their offense is a bit better on paper than Marshall. They have a little better rushing numbers than Marshall. But their passing numbers are almost even. But in my opinion Marshall is the "running dogs" here. Even though their rushing numbers are a bit lower than SM, their rushing defense is better. Marshall gives up 126 ypg and SM 195. Again SM hasn't faced the best offensive competetion. Marshall played Wisconsin and held them to 158 yards in 40 carries. By the way a good Fresno team held Wisconsin to 154 yards on 39 carries..Similar numbers. Wisconsin averages about 240 yards rushing per game. Marshall held them to 80 under their average. SM averages 198 YPG rushing. My bet is Marshall will hold this team to below 130 yards rushing. Marshall avarages 128 ypg rushing..These numbers should come together for this game. And I believe Marshall, because of the competetion they've faced, will be the "running dogs" here. This is also a good situational spot for us. Southern Miss has been getting points the last two games. They now have to turn around and give more than a TD to a conference foe who is not only returning more starters this season (many skill players), but are picked to finish above SM in their division..What's wrong with this picture? Marshall is coming off two spread losses in a row. One against Wisconsin on the road, and one last week in which they won but didn't cover as 4 point favorites. Now they're getting over a TD to a team who was actually picked to finish below the Memphis team that Marshall defeated last week! Larry Fedora has done a good job with this SM team this year considering their only returning 10 starters (4 on defense). But anytime a favored team with a questionable defense is giving over a td to a conference team, it makes me take a closer look. Although Marshall is susiptible to the pass, what makes this team different this year is they can stop the run. This goes a long ways towards ultimatley controlling the tempo of this game. SM gave up 447 yards last week to a very average Arkansas St. team and got outyardaged by over 100 yards. Luckily for SM Ark St. made some costly mistakes that cost them the game. It's going to take those kind of breaks in my opinion to beat a Marshall team who is better than Arkansas St. I also think Marshall HC Mark Snyder is a very sharp coach who stepped into a tough situation at Marshall 3 years ago. And he's just now starting to get the players he wants. And it's clearly starting to pay off. I think this Marshall team has a real chance to win their division this year. And I look for all of their games to be close. This may be the best odds we get on Marshall the rest of the season...Take the dogs.
I was looking at that one too. I played Marshall last week and lost. S. Miss is giving up a lot of yards on the ground, I think the one reason I am not going to play the game though is the Herd's QB is hitting at about 50% and I don't like that as much on the road, I don't think he will be able to come up with the big 3rd down conversions. I like your write up, good luck buddy, this game is a no play for me, but gun to my head I would take the Herd too.
Looking at some of your other games, I don't see how the Toledo Fresno game goes under in my mind, Fresno's defense is getting way too much credit, and Toledo doesn't have much defense anyways. I like the under in the Iowa St. UNLV game, both of these teams have solid defenses and they like to run the ball to keep the clock moving. GL again.
I wouldn't even mess with the totals for this game. I think Toledo not only covers they win this game. This is a very bad situational spot for Fresno. How would you feel if your BCS hopes and dreams were taken away from you, and then you had to get up next week and travel through a couple timezones to play a team that has won something like 43 of their last 50 games in the Glass Bowl, and should be sky high for their first home game of the year. On top of that this is a sandwich spot for Fresno having to go back and play UCLA. There is no way Fresno is going to be up for this game. They might be able to limp through and cover. But I doubt it..I really contemplated on making this a Best Bet play because of this strong angle..But I decided it almost looks too easy and made it a three star. Also Toledo could end up being the running dogs here..It's very close on the number.
