Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Friday 7:10 PM MLB
(905) ATLANTA BRAVES at (906) CINCINNATI REDS
Take: (905) ATLANTA BRAVES +105
It’s a virtual inevitability that every season around this time, at least one or two teams will simply enter into what amounts to white flag mode. It looks like we have our first full fledged towel tosser in action now. From all appearances, the Cincinnati Reds are now pretty much mailing it in on a nightly basis.
This isn’t to say the Reds won’t win some games between now and the end of September. But it sure looks like they’re going to be losing several more than they win at this point. One can get a good feel for a team by watching them regularly and when I view the Reds, I’m seeing a team that just isn’t there mentally. I won’t swear to it, but chances are I’ve made my last play on the Reds for this season. But I don’t think I’ll be having a problem trying to beat them, particularly if the price isn’t an obstacle.
Tonight, the beleaguered Reds host the Braves. Just looking at the numbers, the price is just about where it ought to be on this game. Mike Minor has done a little better lately for Atlanta, but he’s still having trouble commanding his change and he’s not shedding that nasty HR vulnerability. Minor is not what I would call a go with hurler right now, in spite of some encouraging signs of late.
As for Mat Latos, his velocity is slowly starting to creep back toward its former level. Latos is a quality starter and good righties can absolutely shut down the grip it and rip it Braves.
The Reds are capable of hammering lefties with their lineup, and under normal conditions, I’d probably avoid this altogether. But the Reds are as dead as it gets right now, and last night’s destruction at the hands of the visiting Braves was humiliating.
I haven’t been impressed with rookie manager Bryan Price at almost any point this season. His “strategy” has been iffy at best. Now you can also add in the apparent fact that he’s not putting a team that’s remotely energized on the field. Some of that is on the players to be sure, but just because a team is losing games doesn’t mean they should be pretty much going through the motions. The Cubs are going to lose more than they win and were out of playoff contention before the season started. But watch a Cubs game and you’ll be impressed with the spirit and enthusiasm that’s there almost every day. I’m not seeing that at all right now from this Reds entry.
I’m always aware of the data, but there are rare times where I just choose to ignore it, and this is one of those games. I just can’t see Atlanta getting plus money from Cincy at this point, so tonight’s free play is on the Braves.
Bonus Play Friday 7:10 PM MLB
(905) ATLANTA BRAVES at (906) CINCINNATI REDS
Take: (905) ATLANTA BRAVES +105
It’s a virtual inevitability that every season around this time, at least one or two teams will simply enter into what amounts to white flag mode. It looks like we have our first full fledged towel tosser in action now. From all appearances, the Cincinnati Reds are now pretty much mailing it in on a nightly basis.
This isn’t to say the Reds won’t win some games between now and the end of September. But it sure looks like they’re going to be losing several more than they win at this point. One can get a good feel for a team by watching them regularly and when I view the Reds, I’m seeing a team that just isn’t there mentally. I won’t swear to it, but chances are I’ve made my last play on the Reds for this season. But I don’t think I’ll be having a problem trying to beat them, particularly if the price isn’t an obstacle.
Tonight, the beleaguered Reds host the Braves. Just looking at the numbers, the price is just about where it ought to be on this game. Mike Minor has done a little better lately for Atlanta, but he’s still having trouble commanding his change and he’s not shedding that nasty HR vulnerability. Minor is not what I would call a go with hurler right now, in spite of some encouraging signs of late.
As for Mat Latos, his velocity is slowly starting to creep back toward its former level. Latos is a quality starter and good righties can absolutely shut down the grip it and rip it Braves.
The Reds are capable of hammering lefties with their lineup, and under normal conditions, I’d probably avoid this altogether. But the Reds are as dead as it gets right now, and last night’s destruction at the hands of the visiting Braves was humiliating.
I haven’t been impressed with rookie manager Bryan Price at almost any point this season. His “strategy” has been iffy at best. Now you can also add in the apparent fact that he’s not putting a team that’s remotely energized on the field. Some of that is on the players to be sure, but just because a team is losing games doesn’t mean they should be pretty much going through the motions. The Cubs are going to lose more than they win and were out of playoff contention before the season started. But watch a Cubs game and you’ll be impressed with the spirit and enthusiasm that’s there almost every day. I’m not seeing that at all right now from this Reds entry.
I’m always aware of the data, but there are rare times where I just choose to ignore it, and this is one of those games. I just can’t see Atlanta getting plus money from Cincy at this point, so tonight’s free play is on the Braves.
Jim Feist
Comp MLB Pick for Friday, August 22, 2014: 7:05 PM EST
(901) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS (902) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Your free pick for Friday, August 22nd, 2014, comes in baseball as St. Louis and the Phillies meet in Philadelphia. Can't see much offense in this one! Philadelphia ranks 22nd in baseball in runs scored, 26th in on base percentage and 28th in slugging. Philadelphia is on a 2-0-2 run under the total, as well as 1-0-3 under in the Phillies last 4 home games. It won't help the offense to face Shelby Miller, who allows opponents to hit .250. Of course, will the Cardinals score any runs? St. Louis is 28th in runs scored, 24th in slugging. The under is 7-2 in the Cardinals last 9 games following an off day and 34-13-4 under the total when they face the National League East. Starter Kyle Kendrick has a 2.33 ERA against the Cardinals the last three years in 27 innings walking just 5. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings, so look for a defensive battle.
Play the Cardinals/Phillies Under the total.
Comp MLB Pick for Friday, August 22, 2014: 7:05 PM EST
(901) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS VS (902) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Your free pick for Friday, August 22nd, 2014, comes in baseball as St. Louis and the Phillies meet in Philadelphia. Can't see much offense in this one! Philadelphia ranks 22nd in baseball in runs scored, 26th in on base percentage and 28th in slugging. Philadelphia is on a 2-0-2 run under the total, as well as 1-0-3 under in the Phillies last 4 home games. It won't help the offense to face Shelby Miller, who allows opponents to hit .250. Of course, will the Cardinals score any runs? St. Louis is 28th in runs scored, 24th in slugging. The under is 7-2 in the Cardinals last 9 games following an off day and 34-13-4 under the total when they face the National League East. Starter Kyle Kendrick has a 2.33 ERA against the Cardinals the last three years in 27 innings walking just 5. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings, so look for a defensive battle.
Play the Cardinals/Phillies Under the total.
Art Aronson
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
1* Bonus Play on the Seattle Mariners
The visiting Mariners send Felix Hernandez (13-4, 1.99 ERA) to the hill who is looking to bounce back off a rare bad outing (for his incredibly high standards anyways). Hernandez had his streak of nine straight wins in a row snapped against the Tigers, going five innings while allowing two runs. I expect “The King” bounces back nicely in this game; note that Hernandez is 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 15 careers starts lifetime versus the Red Sox and earned a win in his last start against them. Boston counters with Joe Kelly (2-3, 4.67 ERA); Kelly was roughed up in his last outing allowing seven runs in a loss to the Astros. Kelly has been injured for most of the year and the ailments have clearly contributed to his inconsistent campaign. The Red Sox played just yesterday and lost to the Angels while the Mariners had the day off. Note that Seattle is 11-3 this year when playing with a day off. The M’s are coming off a disappointing series against the Phillies where they lost two of three and will be coming into this contest hungry for a win as they are a half game out of a Wild Card spot. The Red Sox meanwhile have lost five in row and have little to play for at this point. I have no problem laying the extra juice to get Hernandez and the Mariners.
AAA Sports
Seattle Mariners vs. Boston Red Sox
1* Bonus Play on the Seattle Mariners
The visiting Mariners send Felix Hernandez (13-4, 1.99 ERA) to the hill who is looking to bounce back off a rare bad outing (for his incredibly high standards anyways). Hernandez had his streak of nine straight wins in a row snapped against the Tigers, going five innings while allowing two runs. I expect “The King” bounces back nicely in this game; note that Hernandez is 8-2 with a 2.97 ERA in 15 careers starts lifetime versus the Red Sox and earned a win in his last start against them. Boston counters with Joe Kelly (2-3, 4.67 ERA); Kelly was roughed up in his last outing allowing seven runs in a loss to the Astros. Kelly has been injured for most of the year and the ailments have clearly contributed to his inconsistent campaign. The Red Sox played just yesterday and lost to the Angels while the Mariners had the day off. Note that Seattle is 11-3 this year when playing with a day off. The M’s are coming off a disappointing series against the Phillies where they lost two of three and will be coming into this contest hungry for a win as they are a half game out of a Wild Card spot. The Red Sox meanwhile have lost five in row and have little to play for at this point. I have no problem laying the extra juice to get Hernandez and the Mariners.
AAA Sports
Ben Burns
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Bonus Play OVER 9 -105
Two subpar starters make plenty of runs a distinct possibility in the series opener. Yesterday I played the Under in the Tigers game at Tampa Bay, a 1-0 final. But that had a pitching matchup of David Price vs. Alex Cobb. This one has Robbie Ray vs. Tom Milone.
Ray has been in and out of the Tigers' rotation all year. His last three times as a starter have not gone well. His ERA is 9.45 and his WHIP 2.251.
The Tigers' offense has scored 14 runs the last 2 games. They should have a chance to add to that tonight vs. Milone, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.65 WHIP his own last three starts. The last one was the worst of all as he allowed 7 runs on 4 hits and lasted just 1.1 innings.
The Over is 5-2 the last 7 times the Tigers have been off a loss. 1* Bonus Play.
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins
Bonus Play OVER 9 -105
Two subpar starters make plenty of runs a distinct possibility in the series opener. Yesterday I played the Under in the Tigers game at Tampa Bay, a 1-0 final. But that had a pitching matchup of David Price vs. Alex Cobb. This one has Robbie Ray vs. Tom Milone.
Ray has been in and out of the Tigers' rotation all year. His last three times as a starter have not gone well. His ERA is 9.45 and his WHIP 2.251.
The Tigers' offense has scored 14 runs the last 2 games. They should have a chance to add to that tonight vs. Milone, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.65 WHIP his own last three starts. The last one was the worst of all as he allowed 7 runs on 4 hits and lasted just 1.1 innings.
The Over is 5-2 the last 7 times the Tigers have been off a loss. 1* Bonus Play.
Jimmy Adams
NFLX Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Bonus Play New England Patriots 5½
The 3rd preseason game is generally the “Dress rehearsal” for most teams. It’s the time we’ll see the starters playing the longest and executing their best. Generally the Patriots don’t care at all about wins and losses in these exhibition games, but they’ll be a touch more motivated today given what happened in their matchup with this team last year. Week 11 on Monday night the Panthers beat the Pat’s 24-20. On the last play of the game, Panthers LB Luke Kuechly absolutely mauled Rob Gronkowski. For some unknown reason, the refs picked up the flag and ended the game. Bill Belichick and company didn’t forget about that one, and given how well New England lit up the scoreboard last week vs. Philly, they will undoubtedly put up a big number tonight against Carolina.
The Panthers got the victory last week, but they’re in for a down year after losing some key personnel. Cam Newton is coming off of ankle surgery so the coaching staff will be keeping a close eye on him. These teams also didn’t hold joint practices this week as so many teams do prior to the season. The Pat’s have almost every advantage in this game and with a little extra motivation added to the equation, this one looks like a strong bet. Take the Patriots -5.5.
NFLX Carolina Panthers vs. New England Patriots
Bonus Play New England Patriots 5½
The 3rd preseason game is generally the “Dress rehearsal” for most teams. It’s the time we’ll see the starters playing the longest and executing their best. Generally the Patriots don’t care at all about wins and losses in these exhibition games, but they’ll be a touch more motivated today given what happened in their matchup with this team last year. Week 11 on Monday night the Panthers beat the Pat’s 24-20. On the last play of the game, Panthers LB Luke Kuechly absolutely mauled Rob Gronkowski. For some unknown reason, the refs picked up the flag and ended the game. Bill Belichick and company didn’t forget about that one, and given how well New England lit up the scoreboard last week vs. Philly, they will undoubtedly put up a big number tonight against Carolina.
The Panthers got the victory last week, but they’re in for a down year after losing some key personnel. Cam Newton is coming off of ankle surgery so the coaching staff will be keeping a close eye on him. These teams also didn’t hold joint practices this week as so many teams do prior to the season. The Pat’s have almost every advantage in this game and with a little extra motivation added to the equation, this one looks like a strong bet. Take the Patriots -5.5.
Scott Spreitzer
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Bonus Play Kansas City Royals with Ventura over Lewis
The hottest team in baseball has a favorable weekend matchup as they look to stay ahead of Detroit in the AL Central. KC enters on a 22-6 run and they're 14-3 in their last 17 against right-handed starters. Tonight, they'll face Colby Lewis. The Texas righty is not too hot, overall, but he's been absolutely horrendous at home this season, where he's been saddled with a 7.29 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and a .351 BAA in 12 home starts. Texas has won just one of his last seven at home. One of the biggest differences between the current Royals and the pre-all star Royals is that they're able to bring base runners home. KC has been in or near the top-5 in team batting average for much of the summer, but struggled at times to plate runs. That's not as much of a problem now...and if they take a lead into the 7th, they're a tough nut to crack. The Rangers have won just 14 of their last 56 games and we'll go against them in this one. I'm backing the KC Royals on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Bonus Play Kansas City Royals with Ventura over Lewis
The hottest team in baseball has a favorable weekend matchup as they look to stay ahead of Detroit in the AL Central. KC enters on a 22-6 run and they're 14-3 in their last 17 against right-handed starters. Tonight, they'll face Colby Lewis. The Texas righty is not too hot, overall, but he's been absolutely horrendous at home this season, where he's been saddled with a 7.29 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, and a .351 BAA in 12 home starts. Texas has won just one of his last seven at home. One of the biggest differences between the current Royals and the pre-all star Royals is that they're able to bring base runners home. KC has been in or near the top-5 in team batting average for much of the summer, but struggled at times to plate runs. That's not as much of a problem now...and if they take a lead into the 7th, they're a tough nut to crack. The Rangers have won just 14 of their last 56 games and we'll go against them in this one. I'm backing the KC Royals on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
Ross Benjamin
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers NFLX
Bonus Play Oakland Raiders +7
You can be rest assured that a huge portion of the general public's money will go the way of the home favorite Packers in this one. After all, it's the dress rehearsal game for both teams, and the starters on each side will receive extended playing time. Surely the public knows with that in mind, the Packers are the superior team right? I would say that they most certainly are, but in my years of experience, whenever something looks this easy, it normally isn't. Think about this, without factoring any other query into the equation, preseason underdogs of 7.0 or more have gone 68-44 ATS (60.7%) since 1983.
Any preseason away underdog that's coming off of a home favorite ATS loss in which they scored 10-points or more, and they have a preseason winning percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off of an away underdog ATS win, has gone 22-4 ATS since 1984. The underdog has won 21 of those 26-games outright. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points as a free selection.
Oakland Raiders vs. Green Bay Packers NFLX
Bonus Play Oakland Raiders +7
You can be rest assured that a huge portion of the general public's money will go the way of the home favorite Packers in this one. After all, it's the dress rehearsal game for both teams, and the starters on each side will receive extended playing time. Surely the public knows with that in mind, the Packers are the superior team right? I would say that they most certainly are, but in my years of experience, whenever something looks this easy, it normally isn't. Think about this, without factoring any other query into the equation, preseason underdogs of 7.0 or more have gone 68-44 ATS (60.7%) since 1983.
Any preseason away underdog that's coming off of a home favorite ATS loss in which they scored 10-points or more, and they have a preseason winning percentage of .500 or better, versus an opponent coming off of an away underdog ATS win, has gone 22-4 ATS since 1984. The underdog has won 21 of those 26-games outright. Play on the Oakland Raiders plus the points as a free selection.
WNBA
Long Sheet
Friday, August 22
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CHICAGO (15 - 19) at ATLANTA (19 - 15) - 8/22/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
ATLANTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 8-6 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-6 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOS ANGELES (16 - 18) at PHOENIX (29 - 5) - 8/22/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 28-43 ATS (-19.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PHOENIX is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games this season.
PHOENIX is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in August or September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 9-8 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 9-8 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Friday, August 22
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CHICAGO (15 - 19) at ATLANTA (19 - 15) - 8/22/2014, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.
ATLANTA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in home games after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 8-6 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 8-6 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 14 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LOS ANGELES (16 - 18) at PHOENIX (29 - 5) - 8/22/2014, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 28-43 ATS (-19.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 3 or more days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
LOS ANGELES is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 21-13 ATS (+6.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
PHOENIX is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games this season.
PHOENIX is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) in August or September games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 9-8 against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 9-8 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
WNBA
Friday, August 22
Trend Report
7:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. ATLANTA
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
10:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. PHOENIX
Los Angeles is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing Los Angeles
Saturday, August 23
5:00 PM
INDIANA vs. WASHINGTON
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Indiana's last 25 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Antonio
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Friday, August 22
Trend Report
7:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. ATLANTA
Chicago is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home
Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
10:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. PHOENIX
Los Angeles is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Los Angeles is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games when playing Los Angeles
Saturday, August 23
5:00 PM
INDIANA vs. WASHINGTON
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Indiana's last 25 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN ANTONIO
Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Antonio
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
