Art Aronson
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Jul 4 2014 5:05PM
1* Bonus Play Pittsburgh Pirates
The struggling Phillies were able to get a win yesterday but will be hard pressed to make it two in a row in my opinion. Philadelphia sends Roberto Hernandez (3-7, 4.26 ERA) to toe the rubber to start this game. Hernandez has been very poor on the road this year with a 6.39 ERA over 31 innings. Hernandez has also had control problems of late as he?s walked 27 over 46 innings while going 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA over his last eight starts. Hernandez gave up four runs and three hits in seven innings of a 10-3 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. The Pirates will respond with Gerritt Cole (6-4, 4.02 ERA) who showed some rust in his last start, which is understandable after returning from a stint on the DL. Cole though has proven himself to be a very strong starter in this league after a solid rookie season and I think he has an extremely good chance of battling back here vs. the inconsistent Phillies. Remember, Philadelphia scored 12 runs and hit .230 while dropping six straight before rallying for a 5-4 win over Miami on Thursday to avoid a three-game sweep. Conversely, Pittsburgh has won nine of its last 12 games heading into this contest and is a strong 26-20 at PNC Park. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just 19-21 in road games and has lost four of its last six away from friendly confines. Consider laying the price as the edge strongly favors the home side Pirates in this matchup.
AAA Sports
Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Jul 4 2014 5:05PM
1* Bonus Play Pittsburgh Pirates
The struggling Phillies were able to get a win yesterday but will be hard pressed to make it two in a row in my opinion. Philadelphia sends Roberto Hernandez (3-7, 4.26 ERA) to toe the rubber to start this game. Hernandez has been very poor on the road this year with a 6.39 ERA over 31 innings. Hernandez has also had control problems of late as he?s walked 27 over 46 innings while going 1-6 with a 4.50 ERA over his last eight starts. Hernandez gave up four runs and three hits in seven innings of a 10-3 loss to Atlanta on Saturday. The Pirates will respond with Gerritt Cole (6-4, 4.02 ERA) who showed some rust in his last start, which is understandable after returning from a stint on the DL. Cole though has proven himself to be a very strong starter in this league after a solid rookie season and I think he has an extremely good chance of battling back here vs. the inconsistent Phillies. Remember, Philadelphia scored 12 runs and hit .230 while dropping six straight before rallying for a 5-4 win over Miami on Thursday to avoid a three-game sweep. Conversely, Pittsburgh has won nine of its last 12 games heading into this contest and is a strong 26-20 at PNC Park. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just 19-21 in road games and has lost four of its last six away from friendly confines. Consider laying the price as the edge strongly favors the home side Pirates in this matchup.
AAA Sports
Rays, Tigers clash on the 4th
Tampa Bay Rays (38-50) at Detroit Tigers (48-34)
Line and Total: Detroit -125, Tampa Bay +115, Total: 8
A pair of surging AL teams continue a four-game set on Friday night when the Rays visit the Tigers.
Tampa Bay has been having a dreadful season, but has turned it on lately by going 7-2 over its past nine games. Six of those victories came against division rivals, and in the Rays' most recent series, they swept the Yankees in three games; allowing just seven runs in the set. But their offense was able to muster only two hits in their 8-1 defeat at the hands of the Tigers on Thursday, but OF Desmond Jennings (.241 BA) had one of those hits and is 5-for-13 with two doubles and two runs in his past three contests.
Detroit has once again taken a strong five-game lead in the AL Central after coming away with victories in 12 of the past 14 contests. Max Scherzer gave his club eight innings of two-hit, one-run baseball in the series-opening rout, and was backed by home runs from 2B Ian Kinsler, DH Victor Martinez and OF Torii Hunter. Kinsler has been on fire over his past 10 games, going 16-for-40 (.400) with two doubles, three homers, 10 RBI and nine runs.
Friday's matchup will peg Rays RHP Alex Cobb (3-6, 4.20 ERA) against LHP Drew Smyly (4-7, 3.57 ERA) for the host Tigers. The road has not been easy for Tampa Bay, as it has gone just 19-25 in away games, but Detroit is a pedestrian 23-19 in front of its hometown fans this season. Over the past three years, the Tigers hold a 9-5 edge in this series, which includes a 5-2 record at home in that time.
Detroit is a woeful 2-10 as a favorite of -125 to -175 when Drew Smyly is starting over the past three seasons, but Tampa Bay is just 9-16 against left-handed starters on the year. As far as injuries are concerned, the Rays still have OF Wil Myers (wrist), SS Yunel Escobar (shoulder) and OF David DeJesus (hand) on the 15-day DL while Detroit has no new major injuries to its offense.
Alex Cobb has been another tremendous arm out of the Rays farm system, and he already has posted a solid 3.52 ERA over 396.2 career innings. This season, the groundball pitcher has induced grounders 55% of the time while striking out a solid 7.8 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, Cobb has averaged less than six innings per start on the year and has pitched at least six frames just twice in his past five outings. In his last start, Cobb lasted only five innings while allowing four runs (3 ER) on eight hits with three strikeouts (0 walks). He has faced Detroit three times in his young career, going 0-1 (1-2 team record) with a 2.41 ERA, but subpar 1.50 WHIP.
But Cobb performed very well in a winning effort last season with a pitching line of 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB and 7 K’s. OF Torii Hunter (6-for-13, 2 RBI) and C Alex Avila (4-for-7, 1 RBI) have been very solid in the matchup against Cobb, while DH Victor Martinez is just 1-for-6 with a strikeout against the 26-year-old.
The Rays’ relievers have gone 14-14 with a 3.80 ERA and are 17-for-25 (68%) in save chances. With Grant Balfour removed from the closer's role, Joel Peralta (4.00 ERA, 1 save), Jake McGee (1.21 ERA, 3 saves) and Juan Oviedo (2.48 ERA, 1 save) are all getting chances to earn ninth-inning appearances.
Drew Smyly was tremendous out of the bullpen in 63 appearances last year, but Detroit decided it wanted him in the rotation, and he is striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings, but also allowing a career-high 3.1 BB/9 this year. He has been amazing with men on base, leaving 80% of runners on so far, leading most to believe he is due to regress. Smyly struggled in his most recent outing, lasting only 2.1 frames while allowing four runs on eight hits and two walks with three strikeouts, as he suffered a loss against the Astros.
Prior to that game, he had put together four consecutive quality starts where he gave up two or fewer runs. Smyly has faced the Rays twice in his career, going 1-0 (2-0 team record) with a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while failing to pitch more than five innings in either start. The players on Tampa Bay’s roster who have faced Smyly in their career are a combined 4-for-23 (.174) with four extra-base hits, 2 RBI and nine strikeouts. OF Desmond Jennings (1-for-6, 4 K’s) and 2B Sean Rodriguez (0-for-6, 3 K’s) have had particular trouble in the matchup.
Detroit’s bullpen has gone 11-10 with a 4.61 ERA and is 22-for-30 (73%) in save opportunities. Joe Nathan (6.16 ERA, 17 saves) is only 17-for-22 in his save chances, and has already allowed five home runs in 30.2 innings on the mound.
Tampa Bay Rays (38-50) at Detroit Tigers (48-34)
Line and Total: Detroit -125, Tampa Bay +115, Total: 8
A pair of surging AL teams continue a four-game set on Friday night when the Rays visit the Tigers.
Tampa Bay has been having a dreadful season, but has turned it on lately by going 7-2 over its past nine games. Six of those victories came against division rivals, and in the Rays' most recent series, they swept the Yankees in three games; allowing just seven runs in the set. But their offense was able to muster only two hits in their 8-1 defeat at the hands of the Tigers on Thursday, but OF Desmond Jennings (.241 BA) had one of those hits and is 5-for-13 with two doubles and two runs in his past three contests.
Detroit has once again taken a strong five-game lead in the AL Central after coming away with victories in 12 of the past 14 contests. Max Scherzer gave his club eight innings of two-hit, one-run baseball in the series-opening rout, and was backed by home runs from 2B Ian Kinsler, DH Victor Martinez and OF Torii Hunter. Kinsler has been on fire over his past 10 games, going 16-for-40 (.400) with two doubles, three homers, 10 RBI and nine runs.
Friday's matchup will peg Rays RHP Alex Cobb (3-6, 4.20 ERA) against LHP Drew Smyly (4-7, 3.57 ERA) for the host Tigers. The road has not been easy for Tampa Bay, as it has gone just 19-25 in away games, but Detroit is a pedestrian 23-19 in front of its hometown fans this season. Over the past three years, the Tigers hold a 9-5 edge in this series, which includes a 5-2 record at home in that time.
Detroit is a woeful 2-10 as a favorite of -125 to -175 when Drew Smyly is starting over the past three seasons, but Tampa Bay is just 9-16 against left-handed starters on the year. As far as injuries are concerned, the Rays still have OF Wil Myers (wrist), SS Yunel Escobar (shoulder) and OF David DeJesus (hand) on the 15-day DL while Detroit has no new major injuries to its offense.
Alex Cobb has been another tremendous arm out of the Rays farm system, and he already has posted a solid 3.52 ERA over 396.2 career innings. This season, the groundball pitcher has induced grounders 55% of the time while striking out a solid 7.8 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, Cobb has averaged less than six innings per start on the year and has pitched at least six frames just twice in his past five outings. In his last start, Cobb lasted only five innings while allowing four runs (3 ER) on eight hits with three strikeouts (0 walks). He has faced Detroit three times in his young career, going 0-1 (1-2 team record) with a 2.41 ERA, but subpar 1.50 WHIP.
But Cobb performed very well in a winning effort last season with a pitching line of 7.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB and 7 K’s. OF Torii Hunter (6-for-13, 2 RBI) and C Alex Avila (4-for-7, 1 RBI) have been very solid in the matchup against Cobb, while DH Victor Martinez is just 1-for-6 with a strikeout against the 26-year-old.
The Rays’ relievers have gone 14-14 with a 3.80 ERA and are 17-for-25 (68%) in save chances. With Grant Balfour removed from the closer's role, Joel Peralta (4.00 ERA, 1 save), Jake McGee (1.21 ERA, 3 saves) and Juan Oviedo (2.48 ERA, 1 save) are all getting chances to earn ninth-inning appearances.
Drew Smyly was tremendous out of the bullpen in 63 appearances last year, but Detroit decided it wanted him in the rotation, and he is striking out 7.8 batters per nine innings, but also allowing a career-high 3.1 BB/9 this year. He has been amazing with men on base, leaving 80% of runners on so far, leading most to believe he is due to regress. Smyly struggled in his most recent outing, lasting only 2.1 frames while allowing four runs on eight hits and two walks with three strikeouts, as he suffered a loss against the Astros.
Prior to that game, he had put together four consecutive quality starts where he gave up two or fewer runs. Smyly has faced the Rays twice in his career, going 1-0 (2-0 team record) with a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while failing to pitch more than five innings in either start. The players on Tampa Bay’s roster who have faced Smyly in their career are a combined 4-for-23 (.174) with four extra-base hits, 2 RBI and nine strikeouts. OF Desmond Jennings (1-for-6, 4 K’s) and 2B Sean Rodriguez (0-for-6, 3 K’s) have had particular trouble in the matchup.
Detroit’s bullpen has gone 11-10 with a 4.61 ERA and is 22-for-30 (73%) in save opportunities. Joe Nathan (6.16 ERA, 17 saves) is only 17-for-22 in his save chances, and has already allowed five home runs in 30.2 innings on the mound.
MLB
Short Sheet
Friday, July 4
Chicago at Washington, 11:05 AM ET
Hammel: 8-1 TSR against NL East opponents
Roark: WASHINGTON is 11-18 after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 5:05 ET
Hernandez: PHILADELPHIA 21-3 after a win by 2 runs or less
Cole: PITTSBURGH 59-32 after scoring 2 runs or less
San Francisco at San Diego, 6:40 ET
Cain: SAN FRANCISCO 55-43 in road games after a loss
Stults: SAN DIEGO 4-11 after 3 straight games where they committed no errors
Milwaukee at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Lohse: MILWAUKEE 18-10 as an underdog
Simon: CINCINNATI 11-23 after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less
Miami at St Louis, 7:15 ET
Eovaldi: MIAMI 28-14 OVER after a loss
Lynn: ST LOUIS 14-22 after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
Arizona at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Collmenter: ARIZONA 29-41 after allowing 2 runs or less
Santana: ATLANTA 20-3 after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less
LA Dodgers at Colorado, 8:10 ET
Kershaw: N/A
Jurrjens: N/A
Baltimore at Boston, 1:35 ET
Gonzalez: BALTIMORE 19-11 after 3 or more consecutive home games
Lester: BOSTON 21-29 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses
NY Yankees at Minnesota, 3:10 ET
Whitley: NY YANKEES 12-4 in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
Gibson: MINNESOTA 44-76 in home games after a loss
Toronto at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Stroman: TORONTO 62-81 when the money line is +125 to -125
Milone: 12-1 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -150
Tampa Bay at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Cobb: TAMPA BAY 23-6 in July games
Smyly: 1-7 TSR in home games after a win
Kansas City at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Ventura: KANSAS CITY 36-15 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Tomlin: CLEVELAND 70-34 as a favorite
Seattle at Chicago, 7:10 ET
Elias: SEATTLE 7-1 as a road underdog of +150 or more
Sale: CHI WHITE SOX 15-36 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Houston at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
Keuchel: HOUSTON 20-61 as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Wilson: 34-20 OVER in night games
Texas at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Darvish: N/A
Niese: N/A
Short Sheet
Friday, July 4
Chicago at Washington, 11:05 AM ET
Hammel: 8-1 TSR against NL East opponents
Roark: WASHINGTON is 11-18 after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games
Philadelphia at Pittsburgh, 5:05 ET
Hernandez: PHILADELPHIA 21-3 after a win by 2 runs or less
Cole: PITTSBURGH 59-32 after scoring 2 runs or less
San Francisco at San Diego, 6:40 ET
Cain: SAN FRANCISCO 55-43 in road games after a loss
Stults: SAN DIEGO 4-11 after 3 straight games where they committed no errors
Milwaukee at Cincinnati, 7:10 ET
Lohse: MILWAUKEE 18-10 as an underdog
Simon: CINCINNATI 11-23 after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less
Miami at St Louis, 7:15 ET
Eovaldi: MIAMI 28-14 OVER after a loss
Lynn: ST LOUIS 14-22 after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs
Arizona at Atlanta, 7:35 ET
Collmenter: ARIZONA 29-41 after allowing 2 runs or less
Santana: ATLANTA 20-3 after 2 straight wins by 2 runs or less
LA Dodgers at Colorado, 8:10 ET
Kershaw: N/A
Jurrjens: N/A
Baltimore at Boston, 1:35 ET
Gonzalez: BALTIMORE 19-11 after 3 or more consecutive home games
Lester: BOSTON 21-29 in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses
NY Yankees at Minnesota, 3:10 ET
Whitley: NY YANKEES 12-4 in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
Gibson: MINNESOTA 44-76 in home games after a loss
Toronto at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Stroman: TORONTO 62-81 when the money line is +125 to -125
Milone: 12-1 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -150
Tampa Bay at Detroit, 7:05 ET
Cobb: TAMPA BAY 23-6 in July games
Smyly: 1-7 TSR in home games after a win
Kansas City at Cleveland, 7:05 ET
Ventura: KANSAS CITY 36-15 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 to +150
Tomlin: CLEVELAND 70-34 as a favorite
Seattle at Chicago, 7:10 ET
Elias: SEATTLE 7-1 as a road underdog of +150 or more
Sale: CHI WHITE SOX 15-36 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
Houston at LA Angels, 9:05 ET
Keuchel: HOUSTON 20-61 as a road underdog of +150 to +200
Wilson: 34-20 OVER in night games
Texas at NY Mets, 7:10 ET
Darvish: N/A
Niese: N/A
Rocky Atkinson (Rocketman)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -145
The Miami Marlins travel to St Louis to take on the Cardinals on Friday night. Miami comes in with a 41-44 overall record on the season while St Louis is 46-40 overall this year. Lance Lynn toes the rubber for St Louis today where he is 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA overall this year and 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA at home this season. Lynn has 91 strikeouts in his 17 starts this season. St Louis is 5-1 at home against Miami the past 3 years. Lynn has a 2-0 record in his two starts against Miami in his career. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -145
The Miami Marlins travel to St Louis to take on the Cardinals on Friday night. Miami comes in with a 41-44 overall record on the season while St Louis is 46-40 overall this year. Lance Lynn toes the rubber for St Louis today where he is 8-6 with a 3.38 ERA overall this year and 4-2 with a 3.22 ERA at home this season. Lynn has 91 strikeouts in his 17 starts this season. St Louis is 5-1 at home against Miami the past 3 years. Lynn has a 2-0 record in his two starts against Miami in his career. We'll recommend a small play on St Louis tonight!
