Wunderdog
Washington @ Los Angeles
Pick: Under 164.5
Washington's status in the East immediately soared when they acquired Elena Delle Donne from Chicago in an off-season trade. Donne is a versatile star in this league and presents matchup problems for any team, as she can play and score inside or out. She dropped 24 points in a season-opening win for the Mystics. LA is the reigning WNBA Champion, so everyone is going to be gunning for them this season. That typically means that defense is going to be intense. LA may be without Candace Parker, as well as Carson and Lavender tonight, so the Sparks offense is going to have fewer options, and the defense is going to have to have its thumb on this game. Washington has been 6-0 to the UNDER in the last three years after scoring 85+ points in a home win in their previous contest.
Washington @ Los Angeles
Pick: Under 164.5
Washington's status in the East immediately soared when they acquired Elena Delle Donne from Chicago in an off-season trade. Donne is a versatile star in this league and presents matchup problems for any team, as she can play and score inside or out. She dropped 24 points in a season-opening win for the Mystics. LA is the reigning WNBA Champion, so everyone is going to be gunning for them this season. That typically means that defense is going to be intense. LA may be without Candace Parker, as well as Carson and Lavender tonight, so the Sparks offense is going to have fewer options, and the defense is going to have to have its thumb on this game. Washington has been 6-0 to the UNDER in the last three years after scoring 85+ points in a home win in their previous contest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona -1½ +121 over SAN DIEGO
Taijuan Walker’s stuff is getting filthier by the week. Here’s a guy with a 73% groundball rate over his past two starts and that has an outstanding 15/43 BB/K split over 46 innings. Walker always had potential but he spent this past offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception and to work on his sinker. That sinker is playing a major role in his progress and is now a key pitch in his arsenal. That said, our fade against Jered Weaver will remain intact until dude hangs up his cleats.
Weaver’s ERA is 6.05 after eight starts. Over his past three starts covering 13 innings, Weaver has been tagged for 21 hits and 18 runs. He’s surrendered two jacks or more in all of his starts this year but two and the Padres are 0-8 in his eight starts. Since 2010, as his fastball velocity slid from 90 to its current 82 MPH, his xERA rose from 3.46 to the nightmare he posted last year and continues to post this year. Weaver has 23 K’s in 42 innings with a 4% swing and miss rate. He had his best game of the year last time out when he allowed just one run over six innings against the South Side but his line drive rate was 38% that day, which means everything was hit hard but right at folks. At the end of the day, Weaver must be faded because he remains one of the top three most hittable and useless starters in the game. Oh, the Padres aren’t very good either.
Texas +129 over DETROIT
If things go swimmingly for the Tigers, they have a 50% chance of winning here. The more likely scenario is that they don’t get every bounce and lose. Daniel Norris is a young pitcher who showed some good things in 2016, especially in September. However, he was whacked more often than not last season and he’s still getting whacked more often than not. In seven starts, Norris has a BB/K split of 19/31 over 37 innings. His WHIP this year of 1.74 is the highest among starting pitchers with six or more starts. His WHIP over his last five starts is 1.93. Norris is always deep in the count. His first-pitch strike rate was 38% last game and is 49% on the year. The more pitches a batter sees, the better his chances and Norris throws more pitches per batter than any qualified starter in the game. Norris has potential but he nibbles, he’s hugely inconsistent and therefore we have to view him as a work-in-progress and massive risk when favored instead of an MLB-ready contributor. His 5.44 xERA doesn’t suggest anything otherwise either.
Nick Martinez is not going to dazzle anyone but what he will do is work quickly, throw strikes and induce groundballs and that’s enough to get our endorsement here. Martinez has just 15 K’s in 30 innings but he’s only walked six batters. He throws 94 MPH and keeps the ball down. Martinez is risky to be sure. All pitchers that don’t generate a slot of swings and misses are but as a dog in this spot, he and the Rangers are worthy of a bet. Additionally, the Rangers are on a roll and that, too, comes into play.
Kansas City -1½ +170 over MINNESOTA
If we’re betting the Rockies based on the doubleheader fade, we therefore must bet the Royals too based on the same strategy. However, we also like the favorable pitching matchup here in the Royals favor as well.
Hector Santiago is 4-2 after eight starts with a 3.80 ERA. At home, Santiago is 3-0 after four starts with a 2.59 ERA so his stock is high and that makes us instant sellers on this below average starter. Santiago’s career xERA shows he’s been pushing his luck for years, saved by higher than normal strand rates and for the last two seasons lower than normal hit rates. That doesn’t mean he won’t be lucky today but it means that he’s very hittable and overpriced because of it. Santiago comes in with a xERA of 5.22 at home, which is not close to his actual 2.59 home ERA. He’s a pitcher that does not own even one good skill. He’s walked 18 batters in 45 frames but his first-pitch strike rate is awful at 52%. He has a mere 32 K’s with a below average swing and miss rate of 7%. His career groundball/fly-ball rate split is 33%/48% and this year it’s almost identical at 34%/46%. Santiago’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.58 and his first-pitch strike rate over that same span is 46%! One simply cannot combine this many fly balls with this many free passes and hope to succeed. He’s surviving on nothing but pure luck right now but when it inevitably runs out, things will get ugly fast.
Nathan Karns is another undervalued arm worth investing in. His skills so far in 2017 have been very strong with 9.2 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9 and a 57% groundball rate. With his ability to induce groundballs and miss bats (12.1% swing and miss rate), he's someone who could sustain a sub-4 ERA after his 19% hr/f comes down. Nathan Karns is by far the superior pitcher here. His actual ERA of 4.46 is misleading and provides us with an opportunity to buy low. Karns’ 3.11 xERA reveals just how good he’s been under the hood and once again it is the reason we do not buy surface stats. Buying Karns is the right play.
CINCINNATI -1½ +188 over Colorado
From the very beginning and up to the mid or late 80’s, baseball teams used to schedule Sunday doubleheaders all the time. Each team routinely scheduled a half dozen or more throughout the season. One could buy one ticket and watch two games and it would last between five and six hours. Nowadays, DH’s are forced when a rainout occurs. Teams now play two games in one day but there is a two-to three hour break in between games to allow the first group of fans to leave and the second group to arrive. Teams’ usually get to the park 2½ to three hours before game time. Thus, a game that starts at 1:00 PM means the players will arrive at 10 or 10:30 AM. The second game will end at 10:30 PM or later, which means for players, it’s a 12-hour day of baseball. Throw in the sitting around in between games and the sitting around the previous day when waiting out a rain delay and the result is a mentally and physically drained team the day after a DH. For the Rockies today, it also means a day of traveling.
We’re always looking for strong situational plays in all sports and this has to be considered one of them. From this day forward, this angle will be applied often and we’re going to put it to the test here. This game is evenly priced to the option to bet the Reds at a pick-em or thereabouts is available but we’ll go for the kill in this hitter’s park.
Starting for the Reds will be 26-year-old Lisalverto Bonilla, who once was a promising, raw prospect early in his career in the Phillies and Rangers organizations. After pitching in the majors for 20.2 innings with Texas in 2014, Bonilla had to undergo Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. The Reds obtained him off waivers in February 2017. Bonilla has always impressed with his pure stuff. He can fire his fastball in the 94-96 mph range and complements it with a slider and very good change-up. His off-speed pitch borders on plus status. He has thrown quality strikes throughout his career and gets swings and misses with his power arsenal. He had 118 K’s and 40 BB’s in 111 innings, working as both a starter and reliever in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He got his feet last week in San Fran with a decent eight-inning, six hit, three runs performance and he’ll be facing what figures to be a fatigued opponent.
Tyler Anderson is a pitcher we’re keeping a close eye on because he’s a lot better than his surface stats suggest. We’ll get into his profile when the time is right but this isn’t that time, as this wager is a fade against a situation.
Arizona -1½ +121 over SAN DIEGO
Taijuan Walker’s stuff is getting filthier by the week. Here’s a guy with a 73% groundball rate over his past two starts and that has an outstanding 15/43 BB/K split over 46 innings. Walker always had potential but he spent this past offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception and to work on his sinker. That sinker is playing a major role in his progress and is now a key pitch in his arsenal. That said, our fade against Jered Weaver will remain intact until dude hangs up his cleats.
Weaver’s ERA is 6.05 after eight starts. Over his past three starts covering 13 innings, Weaver has been tagged for 21 hits and 18 runs. He’s surrendered two jacks or more in all of his starts this year but two and the Padres are 0-8 in his eight starts. Since 2010, as his fastball velocity slid from 90 to its current 82 MPH, his xERA rose from 3.46 to the nightmare he posted last year and continues to post this year. Weaver has 23 K’s in 42 innings with a 4% swing and miss rate. He had his best game of the year last time out when he allowed just one run over six innings against the South Side but his line drive rate was 38% that day, which means everything was hit hard but right at folks. At the end of the day, Weaver must be faded because he remains one of the top three most hittable and useless starters in the game. Oh, the Padres aren’t very good either.
Texas +129 over DETROIT
If things go swimmingly for the Tigers, they have a 50% chance of winning here. The more likely scenario is that they don’t get every bounce and lose. Daniel Norris is a young pitcher who showed some good things in 2016, especially in September. However, he was whacked more often than not last season and he’s still getting whacked more often than not. In seven starts, Norris has a BB/K split of 19/31 over 37 innings. His WHIP this year of 1.74 is the highest among starting pitchers with six or more starts. His WHIP over his last five starts is 1.93. Norris is always deep in the count. His first-pitch strike rate was 38% last game and is 49% on the year. The more pitches a batter sees, the better his chances and Norris throws more pitches per batter than any qualified starter in the game. Norris has potential but he nibbles, he’s hugely inconsistent and therefore we have to view him as a work-in-progress and massive risk when favored instead of an MLB-ready contributor. His 5.44 xERA doesn’t suggest anything otherwise either.
Nick Martinez is not going to dazzle anyone but what he will do is work quickly, throw strikes and induce groundballs and that’s enough to get our endorsement here. Martinez has just 15 K’s in 30 innings but he’s only walked six batters. He throws 94 MPH and keeps the ball down. Martinez is risky to be sure. All pitchers that don’t generate a slot of swings and misses are but as a dog in this spot, he and the Rangers are worthy of a bet. Additionally, the Rangers are on a roll and that, too, comes into play.
Kansas City -1½ +170 over MINNESOTA
If we’re betting the Rockies based on the doubleheader fade, we therefore must bet the Royals too based on the same strategy. However, we also like the favorable pitching matchup here in the Royals favor as well.
Hector Santiago is 4-2 after eight starts with a 3.80 ERA. At home, Santiago is 3-0 after four starts with a 2.59 ERA so his stock is high and that makes us instant sellers on this below average starter. Santiago’s career xERA shows he’s been pushing his luck for years, saved by higher than normal strand rates and for the last two seasons lower than normal hit rates. That doesn’t mean he won’t be lucky today but it means that he’s very hittable and overpriced because of it. Santiago comes in with a xERA of 5.22 at home, which is not close to his actual 2.59 home ERA. He’s a pitcher that does not own even one good skill. He’s walked 18 batters in 45 frames but his first-pitch strike rate is awful at 52%. He has a mere 32 K’s with a below average swing and miss rate of 7%. His career groundball/fly-ball rate split is 33%/48% and this year it’s almost identical at 34%/46%. Santiago’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.58 and his first-pitch strike rate over that same span is 46%! One simply cannot combine this many fly balls with this many free passes and hope to succeed. He’s surviving on nothing but pure luck right now but when it inevitably runs out, things will get ugly fast.
Nathan Karns is another undervalued arm worth investing in. His skills so far in 2017 have been very strong with 9.2 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9 and a 57% groundball rate. With his ability to induce groundballs and miss bats (12.1% swing and miss rate), he's someone who could sustain a sub-4 ERA after his 19% hr/f comes down. Nathan Karns is by far the superior pitcher here. His actual ERA of 4.46 is misleading and provides us with an opportunity to buy low. Karns’ 3.11 xERA reveals just how good he’s been under the hood and once again it is the reason we do not buy surface stats. Buying Karns is the right play.
CINCINNATI -1½ +188 over Colorado
From the very beginning and up to the mid or late 80’s, baseball teams used to schedule Sunday doubleheaders all the time. Each team routinely scheduled a half dozen or more throughout the season. One could buy one ticket and watch two games and it would last between five and six hours. Nowadays, DH’s are forced when a rainout occurs. Teams now play two games in one day but there is a two-to three hour break in between games to allow the first group of fans to leave and the second group to arrive. Teams’ usually get to the park 2½ to three hours before game time. Thus, a game that starts at 1:00 PM means the players will arrive at 10 or 10:30 AM. The second game will end at 10:30 PM or later, which means for players, it’s a 12-hour day of baseball. Throw in the sitting around in between games and the sitting around the previous day when waiting out a rain delay and the result is a mentally and physically drained team the day after a DH. For the Rockies today, it also means a day of traveling.
We’re always looking for strong situational plays in all sports and this has to be considered one of them. From this day forward, this angle will be applied often and we’re going to put it to the test here. This game is evenly priced to the option to bet the Reds at a pick-em or thereabouts is available but we’ll go for the kill in this hitter’s park.
Starting for the Reds will be 26-year-old Lisalverto Bonilla, who once was a promising, raw prospect early in his career in the Phillies and Rangers organizations. After pitching in the majors for 20.2 innings with Texas in 2014, Bonilla had to undergo Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. The Reds obtained him off waivers in February 2017. Bonilla has always impressed with his pure stuff. He can fire his fastball in the 94-96 mph range and complements it with a slider and very good change-up. His off-speed pitch borders on plus status. He has thrown quality strikes throughout his career and gets swings and misses with his power arsenal. He had 118 K’s and 40 BB’s in 111 innings, working as both a starter and reliever in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He got his feet last week in San Fran with a decent eight-inning, six hit, three runs performance and he’ll be facing what figures to be a fatigued opponent.
Tyler Anderson is a pitcher we’re keeping a close eye on because he’s a lot better than his surface stats suggest. We’ll get into his profile when the time is right but this isn’t that time, as this wager is a fade against a situation.
Will Rogers
Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa
The Pittsburgh Penguins' high-octane offense averaged an NHL-best 3.39 goals per game in the regular season but in three games against Ottawa, the Penguins have scored just one goal in each game of this series. Kessel's third-period goal in Game 2 was enough to win but when Crosby scored for the Pens in Game 3, Ottawa already led 5-0. Game 4 of this series is clearly a pivotal one for the defending champs, as coming back from a 3-1 deficit may be too much to ask of a Pittsburgh team struggling on offense and decimated by injuries on the blue line. Adding more drama to the occasion, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters he'd reveal what he hopes to be his ace in the hole on Friday morning, with the disclosure of whether franchise goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury or rookie Matt Murray will get the start in net!
Pittsburgh: Fleury had been nothing short of brilliant while stepping in for an injured Murray (lower body), lifting the Penguins past Columbus and Washington and stopping 56 of 58 shots versus Ottawa in the first two games before getting shredded for four goals on nine shots in the first period of a Wednesday's 5-1 loss. The roles are somewhat reversed from last season when the 22-year-old Murray took over for a concussed Fleury and guided Pittsburgh to its fourth Stanley Cup title in franchise history. That aside, the Penguins still have their offensive woes to deal with. Those haven't just begun this series, as they come into this contest having mustered just nine tallies in their last six games, which follows them having scored 35 goals in their first nine of the playoffs.
Ottawa: Head coach Guy Boucher offered his own take on the Penguins' netminding situation. "I don't care," Boucher said, according to the Ottawa Sun. "Whether it's (Fleury) or another goalie, it doesn't matter." Ottawa's 1-3-1 system is largely responsible for flustering Pittsburgh but the team's offensive 'explosion' (four, first-period goals) was a welcome sight in Game 3. Ottawa's offense was almost non-existent in Game 2, as the Senators failed to record a shot on goal for 18:53 bridging the second and third periods! Five different players scored in Wednesday's win with Ryan adding two assists (giving him five goals and eight assists) to close within one point of Karlsson's team-leading 14 points (two goals / 12 assists) this postseason.
The pick: Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has chosen to keep everyone guessing as to the identity of his starting goalie on Friday and is that really a "winning strategy?" Time will tell. I do see the defending champs coming out strong, as a team with the firepower of Malkin (6 G / 14 A), Kessel ( 6 G / 9 A), Crosby (5 G / 10 A) and Guentzel (9 G / 5 A) is unlikely to be held to just one goal again. However, the goalie situation could turn into a 'nightmare' plus regardless of which player is in goal, the injury-riddled Pittsburgh blue line remains a real problem. Expect Ottawa to take a 3-1 lead in the series with a win.
Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa
The Pittsburgh Penguins' high-octane offense averaged an NHL-best 3.39 goals per game in the regular season but in three games against Ottawa, the Penguins have scored just one goal in each game of this series. Kessel's third-period goal in Game 2 was enough to win but when Crosby scored for the Pens in Game 3, Ottawa already led 5-0. Game 4 of this series is clearly a pivotal one for the defending champs, as coming back from a 3-1 deficit may be too much to ask of a Pittsburgh team struggling on offense and decimated by injuries on the blue line. Adding more drama to the occasion, Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters he'd reveal what he hopes to be his ace in the hole on Friday morning, with the disclosure of whether franchise goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury or rookie Matt Murray will get the start in net!
Pittsburgh: Fleury had been nothing short of brilliant while stepping in for an injured Murray (lower body), lifting the Penguins past Columbus and Washington and stopping 56 of 58 shots versus Ottawa in the first two games before getting shredded for four goals on nine shots in the first period of a Wednesday's 5-1 loss. The roles are somewhat reversed from last season when the 22-year-old Murray took over for a concussed Fleury and guided Pittsburgh to its fourth Stanley Cup title in franchise history. That aside, the Penguins still have their offensive woes to deal with. Those haven't just begun this series, as they come into this contest having mustered just nine tallies in their last six games, which follows them having scored 35 goals in their first nine of the playoffs.
Ottawa: Head coach Guy Boucher offered his own take on the Penguins' netminding situation. "I don't care," Boucher said, according to the Ottawa Sun. "Whether it's (Fleury) or another goalie, it doesn't matter." Ottawa's 1-3-1 system is largely responsible for flustering Pittsburgh but the team's offensive 'explosion' (four, first-period goals) was a welcome sight in Game 3. Ottawa's offense was almost non-existent in Game 2, as the Senators failed to record a shot on goal for 18:53 bridging the second and third periods! Five different players scored in Wednesday's win with Ryan adding two assists (giving him five goals and eight assists) to close within one point of Karlsson's team-leading 14 points (two goals / 12 assists) this postseason.
The pick: Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan has chosen to keep everyone guessing as to the identity of his starting goalie on Friday and is that really a "winning strategy?" Time will tell. I do see the defending champs coming out strong, as a team with the firepower of Malkin (6 G / 14 A), Kessel ( 6 G / 9 A), Crosby (5 G / 10 A) and Guentzel (9 G / 5 A) is unlikely to be held to just one goal again. However, the goalie situation could turn into a 'nightmare' plus regardless of which player is in goal, the injury-riddled Pittsburgh blue line remains a real problem. Expect Ottawa to take a 3-1 lead in the series with a win.
Dave Cokin
Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Over 9
The Braves are really going to miss Freddie Freeman. He was legitimately as valuable to his team through the first month and change as anyone in baseball. But Atlanta will still score its runs in this ballpark, at least when facing guys who can get hit. That's the case tonight as Gio Gonzalez has some red flag numbers that foretell a regression is on the way. On the surface, 3-1, 2.47 looks great. But his walk rate is clearly up and his fly ball rate is the highest since his rookie year. The former is troubling because Gio doesn't throw hard anymore. The latter is a red flag in a ballpark like this one, where the ball carries extremely well. As for Dickey, he's getting by but I think this park is bad news for him as well. His BB rate is up, K rate is down and Dickey has already given up seven homers in only 25 innings in the new stadium. Neither of these teams has an especially good bullpen. In fact, the Nats pen is pretty awful right now. I see the offenses with the edge tonight and will play this game Over.
Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Over 9
The Braves are really going to miss Freddie Freeman. He was legitimately as valuable to his team through the first month and change as anyone in baseball. But Atlanta will still score its runs in this ballpark, at least when facing guys who can get hit. That's the case tonight as Gio Gonzalez has some red flag numbers that foretell a regression is on the way. On the surface, 3-1, 2.47 looks great. But his walk rate is clearly up and his fly ball rate is the highest since his rookie year. The former is troubling because Gio doesn't throw hard anymore. The latter is a red flag in a ballpark like this one, where the ball carries extremely well. As for Dickey, he's getting by but I think this park is bad news for him as well. His BB rate is up, K rate is down and Dickey has already given up seven homers in only 25 innings in the new stadium. Neither of these teams has an especially good bullpen. In fact, the Nats pen is pretty awful right now. I see the offenses with the edge tonight and will play this game Over.
Larry Ness
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series at Camden Yards on Friday vs the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles can hardly be happy about about losing six of seven during their just completed, rain-shortened road trip but manager Buck Showalter's team should be confident having outscored the Jays 26-14 while winning five of six meetings this season with their AL East rivals. Baltimore (23-16) has slipped behind the first-place New York Yankees (24-14)) in the American League East.
Meanwhile, Toronto has shown signs of making a move out of the division's basement, after opening the season 2-11. The Blue Jays have won six of their last nine, after Thursday's 9-0 rout in Atlanta and are now 18-24 on the season. Jose Bautista is starting to heat up after an ice-cold start to the season with eight hits in the series against the Braves and four HRs, 12 RBI and 11 runs scored in his last nine games.
The pitching matchup on Friday features Toronto's Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.95 ERA) against Baltimore's Chris Tillman (1-0, 2.89 ERA). Sanchez has already had two stints on the DL in 2017 but looked good in his first start back last Sunday at Seattle. He allowed just one unearned run on five hits over five innings of a no-decision in the Mariners' 3-2 win. However, he didn't fare well in his lone start against the Orioles in 2017, permitting five runs on seven hits (including three HRs) over 5.1 innings of a 6-4 loss back on April 14. Sanchez is 5-3 in nine career starts against Baltimore (Jays are 5-4) but owns a 4.71 ERA and has allowed 11 HRs and 32 walks in 56.1 innings (not good!).
Tillman needed 105 pitches (with only 61 for strikes) to get through just 4.1 innings at Kansas City on Saturday, avoiding a loss after allowing three runs on eight hits. "Command has been a challenge for him," Showalter said of the 29-year-old Tillman. "He feels good health-wise, so that's a good sign." Tillman will make just his third start of 2017 here (debut was delayed until May 7 due to injury) and may have an uphill battle vs Toronto, as he owns a 5-10 career mark with a 5.44 ERA in 25 career starts against them (teams are 10-15) while surrendering 29 HRs in 137.1 innings.
I don't trust either pitcher, as neither has worked much in 2017. However, the Orioles have 'owned' the Jays in 2017 (5-1) and are at home, where they are 13-3 on the season, giving them MLB's best home moneyline mark at plus-$986. Good enough for me.
Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore
The Baltimore Orioles open a three-game series at Camden Yards on Friday vs the Toronto Blue Jays. The Orioles can hardly be happy about about losing six of seven during their just completed, rain-shortened road trip but manager Buck Showalter's team should be confident having outscored the Jays 26-14 while winning five of six meetings this season with their AL East rivals. Baltimore (23-16) has slipped behind the first-place New York Yankees (24-14)) in the American League East.
Meanwhile, Toronto has shown signs of making a move out of the division's basement, after opening the season 2-11. The Blue Jays have won six of their last nine, after Thursday's 9-0 rout in Atlanta and are now 18-24 on the season. Jose Bautista is starting to heat up after an ice-cold start to the season with eight hits in the series against the Braves and four HRs, 12 RBI and 11 runs scored in his last nine games.
The pitching matchup on Friday features Toronto's Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.95 ERA) against Baltimore's Chris Tillman (1-0, 2.89 ERA). Sanchez has already had two stints on the DL in 2017 but looked good in his first start back last Sunday at Seattle. He allowed just one unearned run on five hits over five innings of a no-decision in the Mariners' 3-2 win. However, he didn't fare well in his lone start against the Orioles in 2017, permitting five runs on seven hits (including three HRs) over 5.1 innings of a 6-4 loss back on April 14. Sanchez is 5-3 in nine career starts against Baltimore (Jays are 5-4) but owns a 4.71 ERA and has allowed 11 HRs and 32 walks in 56.1 innings (not good!).
Tillman needed 105 pitches (with only 61 for strikes) to get through just 4.1 innings at Kansas City on Saturday, avoiding a loss after allowing three runs on eight hits. "Command has been a challenge for him," Showalter said of the 29-year-old Tillman. "He feels good health-wise, so that's a good sign." Tillman will make just his third start of 2017 here (debut was delayed until May 7 due to injury) and may have an uphill battle vs Toronto, as he owns a 5-10 career mark with a 5.44 ERA in 25 career starts against them (teams are 10-15) while surrendering 29 HRs in 137.1 innings.
I don't trust either pitcher, as neither has worked much in 2017. However, the Orioles have 'owned' the Jays in 2017 (5-1) and are at home, where they are 13-3 on the season, giving them MLB's best home moneyline mark at plus-$986. Good enough for me.
Alex Smart
Cavs at Celtics
Play: Cavs -5
The Cleveland Cavaliers owned game 1 of their Eastern Conference series with the Boston Celtics. That was the case during the regular season, as the won 4 of 5 meetings, and now I expect nothing to change in game 2. The Cavs are still fresh, after taking out the Raptors easily in their last series, and very dangerous. With a banged Boston squad that just recently finished playing an exhausting 7 game series, against the Wizards and now running on fumes, they look like fade material once again. CLEVELAND is 35-18 ATS L/53 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season, with a combined average win coming by 8.8 ppg. Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
Cavs at Celtics
Play: Cavs -5
The Cleveland Cavaliers owned game 1 of their Eastern Conference series with the Boston Celtics. That was the case during the regular season, as the won 4 of 5 meetings, and now I expect nothing to change in game 2. The Cavs are still fresh, after taking out the Raptors easily in their last series, and very dangerous. With a banged Boston squad that just recently finished playing an exhausting 7 game series, against the Wizards and now running on fumes, they look like fade material once again. CLEVELAND is 35-18 ATS L/53 when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days dating back to last season, with a combined average win coming by 8.8 ppg. Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win. Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
Dave Essler
Cardinals -145
This is my one bet for the day, but I will give you thoughts as usual. Here we have an NL total going UP, or at least the vig. That's with what has been an anemic Giants offense and no, no Hunter Pence, against a rested Wacha and a bullpen that's been on the upswing. Moore threw 120 pitches last game and 108 in the game prior to that. So, pitching deep isn't a strong likelihood, and we don't trust their bullpen - so add that to the total going up and IMO it seems like the Cardinals will be the ones doing most of the scoring.
Cardinals -145
This is my one bet for the day, but I will give you thoughts as usual. Here we have an NL total going UP, or at least the vig. That's with what has been an anemic Giants offense and no, no Hunter Pence, against a rested Wacha and a bullpen that's been on the upswing. Moore threw 120 pitches last game and 108 in the game prior to that. So, pitching deep isn't a strong likelihood, and we don't trust their bullpen - so add that to the total going up and IMO it seems like the Cardinals will be the ones doing most of the scoring.
Harry Bondi
HOUSTON (-130) over Cleveland
We have had a field day going against Cleveland pitcher Trevor Bauer recently and we’ll do it again here tonight. The struggling right-hander is 1-3 on the road this season with an ERA hovering around 7.00 and in his last three starts overall he has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits in 16 IP with a 1.750 WHIP. Compare that to Astros starter Charlie Morton who is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season and you can see why we are more than willing to lay the -130 here. Houston is also 14-6 at home overall this season and a profitable 23-7 against right-handed starters. The price is right. Lay the home favorite.
HOUSTON (-130) over Cleveland
We have had a field day going against Cleveland pitcher Trevor Bauer recently and we’ll do it again here tonight. The struggling right-hander is 1-3 on the road this season with an ERA hovering around 7.00 and in his last three starts overall he has allowed 14 runs on 20 hits in 16 IP with a 1.750 WHIP. Compare that to Astros starter Charlie Morton who is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season and you can see why we are more than willing to lay the -130 here. Houston is also 14-6 at home overall this season and a profitable 23-7 against right-handed starters. The price is right. Lay the home favorite.
Bob Balfe
Nationals -1.5
The Braves are the worst team in baseball at hitting left handers and the Nationals are the best team in baseball at hitting right handers. R.A. Dickey is a man well past his prime and I expect the Nationals to jump on Atlanta early in this one. The money line is too high to play so we will go with the run line.
Nationals -1.5
The Braves are the worst team in baseball at hitting left handers and the Nationals are the best team in baseball at hitting right handers. R.A. Dickey is a man well past his prime and I expect the Nationals to jump on Atlanta early in this one. The money line is too high to play so we will go with the run line.
Jack Brayman
My paid play for tonight is on the San Diego Padres, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers; Jered Weaver and Taijuan Walker.
This is a pitching rematch from a series that took place in late April, when the Padres and Weaver took the L, from the Snakes and Walker.
But see, Weaver is coming off his best start of the season, in which he allowed one run over six innings against the White Sox. It was the veteran right-hander's first outing without allowing a homer.
Walker, on the other hand, has allowed seven runs over his last two outings. And while only four of them were earned, he hasn't necessarily looked as good as he did last month.
Take the Padres and list both.
5* PADRES
My paid play for tonight is on the San Diego Padres, against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and in this one I want you listing the scheduled starting pitchers; Jered Weaver and Taijuan Walker.
This is a pitching rematch from a series that took place in late April, when the Padres and Weaver took the L, from the Snakes and Walker.
But see, Weaver is coming off his best start of the season, in which he allowed one run over six innings against the White Sox. It was the veteran right-hander's first outing without allowing a homer.
Walker, on the other hand, has allowed seven runs over his last two outings. And while only four of them were earned, he hasn't necessarily looked as good as he did last month.
Take the Padres and list both.
5* PADRES
Eric Schroeder
My free winner for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, against the struggling Philadelphia Phillies, as the cross-state rivals open a Keystone State series in Steeltown.
Tthe Pirates come in after winning two straight, after Adam Frazier drove in four runs during a 10-4 win over the Washington Nationals last night. That's a huge win over a mighty powerful team, and now the momentum will carry over to the weekend.
Philadelphia steps into Pittsburgh after losing 8-4 at Texas yesterday afternoon. The Phillies have lost four straight and six of seven, while they're stuck with their worst record through 38 games since 2000.
All Bucs tonight.
2* PIRATES
My free winner for tonight is on the Pittsburgh Pirates at home, against the struggling Philadelphia Phillies, as the cross-state rivals open a Keystone State series in Steeltown.
Tthe Pirates come in after winning two straight, after Adam Frazier drove in four runs during a 10-4 win over the Washington Nationals last night. That's a huge win over a mighty powerful team, and now the momentum will carry over to the weekend.
Philadelphia steps into Pittsburgh after losing 8-4 at Texas yesterday afternoon. The Phillies have lost four straight and six of seven, while they're stuck with their worst record through 38 games since 2000.
All Bucs tonight.
2* PIRATES
Jeff Benton
Friday night comp play is the Under in the Penguins-Senators series.
Pittsburgh's offense has not been seen through the first 3 games, as the Senators have held the Penguins to just 3 goals, as 2 of the 3 games played thus far have held Under the total.
Wednesday's game did land Over thanks to an Ottawa 4-goal eruption in the first period, but I don't think the Sens are going to light up the scoreboard in that fashion again tonight.
This game will revert to previous series form, as the previous 4 played dating back to the regular season had all held Under the total.
With Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson in a zone, and the Penguins offense just not being able to solve Anderson or the Senators neutral zone trapping, look for Game 4 on this Eastern Conference Final series to land Under the total.
Penguins-Senators Under.
2* PITTSBURGH-OTTAWA UNDER
Friday night comp play is the Under in the Penguins-Senators series.
Pittsburgh's offense has not been seen through the first 3 games, as the Senators have held the Penguins to just 3 goals, as 2 of the 3 games played thus far have held Under the total.
Wednesday's game did land Over thanks to an Ottawa 4-goal eruption in the first period, but I don't think the Sens are going to light up the scoreboard in that fashion again tonight.
This game will revert to previous series form, as the previous 4 played dating back to the regular season had all held Under the total.
With Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson in a zone, and the Penguins offense just not being able to solve Anderson or the Senators neutral zone trapping, look for Game 4 on this Eastern Conference Final series to land Under the total.
Penguins-Senators Under.
2* PITTSBURGH-OTTAWA UNDER
