NCAAB
Since 1987, in national semifinal games with two #1-seeds playing, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Kentucky beat Wisconsin by point in this game LY, but Wildcats were 8-seed then, they're 38-0 now. Kentucky allowed 53 ppg in winning first four tourney games (1-3 vs spread); they're favored by single digits here, bargain because of close call vs Notre Dame in regional final. Badgers won last ten games, scoring 80.5 ppg in winning first four tourney games; they are 37-89 (41.7%) from arc in NCAAs. Kentucky is holding teams to 26.7% from arc. Wisconsin was held to 61.7 ppg in three losses this season.
Duke beat Michigan State 81-71 in November down street from the Lucas Oil Dome, but beating Izzo in March is lot harder than doing it in November. Spartans did shoot 62.5% inside arc that night, but 5-20 outside arc. Michigan State won eight of its last nine games, with OT loss to Wisconsin in Big 14 final- two of their last three wins were vs ACC teams. Duke allowed 53.8 ppg in first four wins in this tourney; Blue Devils allowed 74+ points in all four losses. Over last 10 years, favorites are 17-11-1 vs spread in Final Four games; that said, this is 4th year in row where a 1-seed plays a #4 or lower seed in national semis; underdogs are 3-0 vs the spread in those games.
Since 1987, in national semifinal games with two #1-seeds playing, underdogs are 5-1 vs spread. Kentucky beat Wisconsin by point in this game LY, but Wildcats were 8-seed then, they're 38-0 now. Kentucky allowed 53 ppg in winning first four tourney games (1-3 vs spread); they're favored by single digits here, bargain because of close call vs Notre Dame in regional final. Badgers won last ten games, scoring 80.5 ppg in winning first four tourney games; they are 37-89 (41.7%) from arc in NCAAs. Kentucky is holding teams to 26.7% from arc. Wisconsin was held to 61.7 ppg in three losses this season.
Duke beat Michigan State 81-71 in November down street from the Lucas Oil Dome, but beating Izzo in March is lot harder than doing it in November. Spartans did shoot 62.5% inside arc that night, but 5-20 outside arc. Michigan State won eight of its last nine games, with OT loss to Wisconsin in Big 14 final- two of their last three wins were vs ACC teams. Duke allowed 53.8 ppg in first four wins in this tourney; Blue Devils allowed 74+ points in all four losses. Over last 10 years, favorites are 17-11-1 vs spread in Final Four games; that said, this is 4th year in row where a 1-seed plays a #4 or lower seed in national semis; underdogs are 3-0 vs the spread in those games.
