Friday 4/3/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 4/3 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 143 - 547 / $770.30 BEST BETS: 19 - 45 / $70.70

Best Bet: GWENEEEE J (3rd)

Spot Play: KINGAPORE (2nd)


Race 1

(1) NEWCASTLE comes north after a pair of decent qualifiers for a solid trotting barn. In a field with no standouts he deserves at least a long look on the track. (6) ROYAL BECCA J posted a good effort upon arrival and should be forwardly placed. (5) STONEHAM stayed around a bit better in the stretch with Lasix added and could take another step forward.

Race 2

(5) KINGAPORE got away near the back from an outside post and trotted evenly the rest of the mile. That start last week was his first since June and improvement can be expected. (6) CEDARRIDGETAG was never asked in his qualifying victory a week ago. Did the big track cure his breaking issues? (8) MCKENZIE’S STAR tries his luck at the Meadowlands again and finds a soft spot.

Race 3

(2) GWENEEEE J caught my eye with a sparkling late rally to win her qualifier going away. This one appears to have some ability. (5) AMERICAN TRUTH picked up her first career win at Pocono last time and looks like an obvious threat. (8) BOSSERS JOY was placed in stakes races as a 2-year-old and made $110k. She has a shot to hit the board but might need a start.

Race 4

This is my public proclamation that I will not pick (4) OUTBURST again if he doesn’t win this race. He adds Lasix and there are no excuses for failure. (2) STITCH IN TIME jumped it off as my top pick last Friday. I’m inclined to give him another shot. (3) SCORCHER HALL adds hobbles to try to keep him trotting. When a 6-year-old with 10 starts in the last two years and 25 starts in his career adds hobbles, the problems likely run deeper. (8) LEXIS AMIGO needs some pace help and has to mind his manners.

Race 5

(6) MR RIDGETAKER was flat late in his first start for the McDermott barn. This race seems to lack an abundance of early speed and I can see driver Peter Kleinhans grabbing the bull by the horns. (1) FOX VALLEY LEGEND is the obvious 3-5 favorite on paper. That said, he only seems to do his best work for trainer Rob Harmon and he is coming off a break; proceed with caution. (5) WINDSUN GALLIANO rallied nicely a week ago and could be a threat with the right trip. (7) BAMBINO HALL is capable and worth using.

Race 6

(5) SAYITALL BB was facing some heavy hitter in the Matchmaker at Yonkers and got stuck with post eight in her prior start. I can see her offering value in this wide-open field and she has the talent to win. (3) ADDYS WAY is one of the sharper horses around for a barn that has been firing all meet. (7) RADAR CONTACT has more seconds than wins lately but deserves respect.

Race 7

(5) MUSCOLO took care of business in the preliminary round of this mini-series and looks like the obvious choice for a repeat. (4) LOOKING HANOVER is not the horse he used to be, but this 10-year-old could take advantage of possible speed duel between a bunch of outside leavers. (6) SWEET JUSTICE has lost my confidence, but I still respect his ability to step up when right.

Race 8

(6) PAN LUIS OBISPO dropped down last week and was unlucky to catch Mattie Terror Girl, who has since moved up to the Open ranks. This is her race to lose. (1) BETTOR CHILL OUT raced well as a 3-year-old and now has a start under her belt in 2015; possible upsetter if ready. (5) TREVOR’S BEBE has proven reliable on the bottom of the exotics.

Race 9

(4) BLACK MAGIC EYES comes with the questions of a scratched-sick line, but she only missed one week. Seven-year-old mare drops in class and looks like the one to beat. (8) ART IDEAL raced well off the bench and could easily take this group. (5) CANDY STYX N made a middle move and tired a week ago. Perhaps that is a sign she is ready to go forward.

Race 10

(6) VIBE BLUE CHIP was a bit better last time and perhaps the month off helped. He hasn’t been posting many wins, but there are no standouts in this field. (5) B L CLASS ACT drops way down and has to be considered a top contender. (1) AGGRESSIVE put up a big win here in early March. A repeat of that mile would result in a win. (3) GENIUS AT WORK raced reasonably well in his 2015 debut and can build on that effort.

Race 11

(1) ROLLS BLUE CHIP has won three of his last five races, all at different tracks and one here at the Meadowlands. I’ll give him the narrow call in a tough race. (4) TIRADE HANOVER was off his game last week. Maybe the switch to Callahan or the weaker competition will turn things around. (7) TWIN B SPIKE MAN has the ability if he is ready in his first start since October. (8) UPFRONT BILLY will be involved and could win if things go his way.

Race 12

(1) MISSSOMEBEACH BLUE drops back down to a similar condition where he blew away the competition by seven lengths a few starts back. (2) ANGELS DELIGHT qualified well enough and does have some class. (3) JANIE BAY tried to close from Manhattan and came up short last week; better post helps. (6) BRING THEM HOME takes a step down the condition ladder and has Gingras.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 4/3 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 42 - 274 / $329.10 BEST BETS: 3 - 23 / $14.10

Best Bet: BAZOOKA TERROR (9th)

Spot Play: GRANDPA DON (3rd)


Race 1

(1) MYSTICAL VALENTINE Strong late run for the placing last out and this gelding can put his best foot forward from the fence. (2) BLUE STRIKE gets serious post relief. (3) LONG FIGHT HANOVER Qualifier here puts this guy right in the mix.

Race 2

(1) LUMINOSITY Ohio invader got the job done in his latest. Make his initial trip to Yonkers and the rail slot & Brennan should suit him perfectly. (6) DEWYCOLORINTHELINE is better this his last try where he was shuffled. (4) ON THE PODIUM was second best in his last trip.

Race 3

(2) GRANDPA DON came up a little short for win honors last time around, but this gelding does have a fondness for the Hilltop; threat at his best. (4) WINDS OF TERROR Upstate invader is very consistent. (7) DIAMONDKEEPER put in a good effort for the score recently.

Race 4

(8) GRANTOR HANOVER did not race badly in his last start and pacer is very capable of getting back to his winning ways. (2) AUTOMATIC SLIMS has hit the board in his last six trips to the post. (6) PHENOMENON put in three good efforts at Saratoga; watch out.

Race 5

(4) DELIGHTFUL DRAGON was a fast closing second in her return to Yonkers last out and this gal seems to be fit and ready to move forward. (7) RD IOU was caught for win money last time around. (8) KRISPY APPLE Post hurts but she is not out of this based on her form.

Race 6

(1) FOR THE LADIES N moves to the fence and that might be what she needs to take this select group to task. (5) CAROLSIDEAL has wheeled off two straight victories in the series; main danger. (2) ANNDROVETTE has hit the board in her last four starts.

Race 7

(2) YAGONNAKISSMEORNOT was nailed for the score in her recent outing. Pacing mare is racing well right now and moving back to her winning ways is not out of the question. (4) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL Very sharp pacing mare is a serious threat in here. (3) VENUS DELIGHT could be right in the mix.

Race 8

(7) SUMMER SMACKDOWN was facing better company upstate last out and now is back with old friends where he got the job done two trips ago. (4) TWIN B HOLLISTER is better than his latest. (1) MAINLAND KEY N just missed the victory in his last try.

Race 9

(3) BAZOOKA TERROR Pacing miss is in good form and a return to the winner's circle is clearly in the cards. (2) ROBIN CRUISER is zero for 10 this year but she is knocking at the door; factor. (1) HAYWORTH BLUE CHIP should do much better from the fence.

Race 10

(2) KEYSTONE WANDA moves back inside and this gal is seeking her first score of the year; maybe. (8) COFFEE ADDICT gets class relief but post hurts; big threat. (5) HANDSOFFMYCUPCAKE could have a say with these.

Race 11

(2) SOURCE OF PRIDE Pocono experiment did not work, so he returns to Yonkers where he got the job done two trips ago; all systems go. (6) BOX CAR JOHNNIE Gelding could make some noise down the lane. (4) UF ROCKIN DRAGON should fare well from the 4-hole.

Race 12

(7) BIG GAME HUNTER made a middle move and tired in the stretch drive last time out at Pocono. Now he is back here and this might be a better spot for him to get back into the swing of things. (2) ALLSTAR PARTNER was nailed for the victory last time around. (5) SMOOTH CRIMINAL Sabot trainee gets class relief; beware.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (4th) Bossy Boots, 4-1
(9th) Feverish Loot, 3-1

Charles Town (3rd) Rugged Cross, 3-1
(6th) Awesome Life, 3-1


Golden Gate Fields (4th) Dos Eqkeys, 9-2
(8th) Satin Cinnamon, 3-1

Gulfstream Park (6th) Victory Mast, 4-1
(8th) Yari, 8-1

Hawthorne (5th) Shanghai Red, 9-2
(7th) Legend Forever, 9-2


Keeneland (4th) Greely's Striker, 7-2
(8th) A. P. Indian, 7-2


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Great Day, 8-1
(6th) Colorful Image, 3-1


Oaklawn Park (2nd) My Dear Desert, 7-2
(6th) Buck Magic, 5-1

Penn National (2nd) Vall and Jan, 8-1
(8th) Nina Smoked'm, 6-1

Pimlico (3rd) Purely Dunn, 3-1
(7th) Any Court Inastorm, 7-2


Santa Anita (5th) Oligarch, 7-2
(6th) Moonlight Meeting, 7-2

Sunland Park (6th) Polar Dust, 3-1
(7th) Stormy Day, 5-1


Tampa Bay Downs (7th) Deciding Moment, 10-1
(8th) Roar of Silence, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 63 Preview

Event: UFC Fight Night 63
Date: Saturday, Apr. 4, 2015
TV/Time: FS1, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Patriot Center
City: Fairfax, Virginia

Featherweight Bout: Chad Mendes (16-2-0) vs. Ricardo Lamas (15-3-0)

Line: Mendes -500 Lamas +375

Chad “Money” Mendes looks to shake off another failed attempt at grabbing the featherweight belt when he takes on Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas at UFC Fight Night 63.

Mendes has had no issues beating all of his opponents, besides one, Jose Aldo, who has given him both his losses in title fights. Most recently he took on Aldo in another attempt at the belt and the battle lasted the entire five rounds before Mendes lost by decision in what was a very tight fight; eventually being named the fight of the year. Besides Aldo, Mendes has come away victorious in his other 16 fights, getting most of his wins by decision (8), grabbing another six by knockout and also has two by submission. He has leaned more towards the knockout lately, with punches being the end of his opponent in four of his past five wins; doing so in the first round three times.

Lamas should be a strong competitor in this one as the former wrestler and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter has won in six of his past seven times in the octagon with the only loss coming at the hands of Jose Aldo. The loss to Aldo was for the featherweight title back in February of last year and since then he has fought twice, earning two victories, one by unanimous decision and most recently by submission (guillotine choke) against Dennis Bermudez at UFC 180. The recent submission was his fourth win by that approach as he primarily has won in a decision (7) and also owns four career knockouts.

Mendes has been borderline dominant in his career if it weren’t for Aldo giving him the two losses in title fights and he lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 47%. He is a master of the takedown, though, getting 4.18 every 15 minutes and had seven in his last win over Nik Lentz. “Money” actually landed a better percentage of his significant strikes when he fought Aldo back in October, but just took on a barrage of hits, getting 80 blows to the head compared to the 50 that he dished out.

Where Mendes typically wins fights is with defense as he deflects 70% of significant strikes attempted by his opponent and parlays that into his signature takedowns. He also does not allow the opposition to put him on the mat as no fighter he has faced has successfully completed a takedown against him. Mendes will certainly have the advantage in this aspect and will just need to keep putting Lamas on the ground until he can finish him off.

Lamas is a similar offensive fighter to his opponent in this one as he lands 2.31 significant strikes per minute on a much lower accuracy (39%). He also struggles with the takedowns compared to Mendes and gets opponents on the mat an average of 1.72 times per 15 minutes in the octagon. One advantage that could certainly work out for him if the cards fall into place is his ability to get a submission as he has won via this tactic twice in the past six fights and has averaged 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

What may prove to be his demise is his defense, and while he still is able to deflect 61% of significant strikes, he only manages to defend against the takedown 48% of the time, and against a fighter like Mendes, he will need to do this a ton in a five-round match if it goes the distance. This will be a tough matchup for Lamas to win given that he has a disadvantage in nearly every aspect of the fight, but if he can somehow become the first person to get Mendes on the mat, it could be an upset win.

Other UFC Fight Night 63 Bouts

Middleweight Bout
Justin Jones -145
Ron Stallings +115

Heavyweight Bout
Shamil Abdurahimov -285
Timothy Johnson +220

Lightweight Bout
Alexander Yakovlev -145
Gray Maynard +115

Womens Bantamweight Bout
Liz Carmouche -125
Lauren Murphy -105

Lightweight Bout
Dustin Poirier -195
Carlos Diego Ferreira +160

Featherweight Bout
Clay Guida -275
Robbie Peralta +215

Womens Bantamweight
Julianna Pena -300
Milana Dudieva +235

Lightweight Bout
Michael Chiesa -350
Mitch Clarke +270

Lightweight Bout
Jorge Masvidal -130
Al Iaquinta --Even

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Power Poll
By Tony Mejia

Tony Mejia continues his coverage this pro basketball season as a regular contributor. Each week throughout the 2014-15 campaign, users can view his weekly Division Rankings, Playoff Projections, NBA Finals Prediction and Power Poll.

Division Rankings

1) Southwest
2) Pacific
3) Central
4) Southeast
5) Northwest
6) Atlantic

Playoff Projections

Eastern Conference
1. Atlanta
2. Cleveland
3. Chicago
4. Toronto
5. Washington
6. Milwaukee
7. Miami
8. Brooklyn

Western Conference
1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. Memphis
4. Portland
5. L.A. Clipppers
6. Houston
7. Dallas
8. New Orleans

First Team All-NBA
F- LeBron James, Cleveland
F- Anthony Davis, New Orleans
C- Marc Gasol, Memphis
G- Stephen Curry, Golden State
G- James Harden, Houston

Second Team All-NBA
F- Pau Gasol, Chicago
F- LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland
C- DeAndre Jordan, L.A. Clippers
G- Russell Westbrook, OKC
G- Klay Thompson, Golden State

Third Team All-NBA
F- Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers
F- Paul Millsap, Atlanta
C- DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento
G- Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers
G- John Wall, Washington

2014-15 NBA Finals Prediction

San Antonio over Cleveland - The Spurs offense is being run by Tony Parker again. The impostor with the suspect hamstrings and lack of burst has been replaced by the four-time NBA champion we've grown used to seeing over the years. Kawhi Leonard looks sharp, too, so it's time to tip the cap and pick the defending champs to win again, getting out of the loaded West over top contenders Golden State, Memphis and Houston.The Cavs won't have it easy, either. Not only will the Hawks have well-deserved homecourt advantage, but the Bulls should have Derrick Rose back at the controls.


Power Rankings

Rank Team Betting Notes (2014-15 Record) Last Week

1 Golden State Warriors (61-13 SU, 44-28-2 ATS) 1
2 Atlanta Hawks (56-19 SU, 47-28 ATS) 2
3 Cleveland Cavaliers (48-27 SU, 37-38 ATS) 4
4 San Antonio Spurs (49-26 SU, 37-37-1 ATS) 9
5 Houston Rockets (51-24 SU, 43-32 ATS) 5
6 Memphis Grizzlies (51-24 SU, 36-38-1 ATS) 3
7 Los Angeles Clippers (50-26 SU, 35-41 ATS) 8
8 Portland Trail Blazers (48-26 SU, 36-37-1 ATS) 7
9 Dallas Mavericks (46-29 SU, 32-40-3 ATS) 6
10 Chicago Bulls (45-30 SU, 35-40 ATS) 11
11 New Orleans Pelicans (40-34 SU, 43-31 ATS) 15
12 Toronto Raptors (45-30 SU, 35-39-1 ATS) 13
13 Oklahoma City Thunder (42-33 SU, 38-37 ATS) 10
14 Washington Wizards (42-33, 31-42-2 ATS) 14
15 Milwaukee Bucks (37-38 SU, 40-33-2 ATS) 17
16 Phoenix Suns (38-37 SU, 38-36-1 ATS) 12
17 Utah Jazz (34-41 SU, 40-33-2 ATS) 19
18 Miami Heat (34-40 SU, 33-38-3 ATS) 18
19 Brooklyn Nets (34-40 SU, 35-37-2 ATS) 21
20 Boston Celtics (34-41 SU, 42-32-1 ATS) 16
21 Charlotte Hornets (32-42 SU, 38-33-3 ATS) 20
22 Indiana Pacers (32-43 SU, 38-34-3 ATS) 22
23 Detroit Pistons (29-46 SU, 36-39 ATS) 23
24 Denver Nuggets (28-47 SU, 33-40-2 ATS) 24
25 Sacramento Kings (26-48 SU, 28-44-2 ATS) 25
26 Orlando Magic (22-53 SU, 37-37-1 ATS) 26
27 Los Angeles Lakers (20-54 SU, 37-36-1 ATS) 28
28 Philadelphia 76ers (18-58 SU, 38-37-1 ATS) 29
29 Minnesota Timberwolves (16-59 SU, 32-42-1 ATS) 27
30 New York Knicks (14-61 SU, 28-45-2 ATS) 30

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Raptors (45-30) at Nets (34-40)


Date: April 03, 2015 7:30 PM EDT

The Brooklyn Nets are enjoying their longest win streak of the season, and now they are even winning at home.

The Toronto Raptors are feeling good about themselves as well with a three-game run as they tune up for the playoffs.

The visiting Raptors expect to play again without point guard Kyle Lowry on Friday night, and the Nets hope to take advantage and post their sixth straight victory.

Brooklyn (34-40) has used this win streak to move into playoff position in the Eastern Conference. The Nets blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter before Brook Lopez's follow shot with 2 seconds left gave them a 100-98 win at New York on Wednesday.

"We've been playing hard each and every game, trying to take it one game at a time, trying to stay in the winning column, that's it," guard Joe Johnson said.

Lopez is averaging 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and shooting 61.7 percent during a 7-1 surge for Brooklyn, which last won six straight during a seven-game run Jan. 2-15, 2013. The Nets are the only team with a better record on the road than at home, where they look for a season-high fourth straight victory.

Deron Williams turned in his best game of this run with 26 points, seven assists and seven boards against the Knicks.

'We're just finding ways to win ballgames,' Williams said. 'We start off great and have some lulls. Tonight we had two, but at the end we buckled down and did what we had to do to win.'

Williams should find things easier since he won't have to face Lowry, expected to miss a fifth straight game with back spasms. Lowry is averaging 10.0 assists in the season series, with Toronto (45-30) taking two of three.

The Raptors improved to 5-4 without Lowry with Wednesday's 113-99 victory at Minnesota. Reserve guard Lou Williams had 18 points to lead seven players in double figures.

"Kyle helped us with a lot of things, defense, offense, passing, everything so we just have to kind of always pick our game up and make sure everyone is playing a little better than they normally do to pick up for the absence of Kyle," said forward Terrence Ross, who scored 16.

DeMar DeRozan scored 17 one game after a 42-point, 11-rebound effort in Monday's 99-96 home win over Houston.

The Raptors' next three games are against teams trying to get into the playoffs, including matchups with Boston and Charlotte. Toronto is tied with Chicago for the East's third-best mark.

"We're fighting for something too," coach Dwane Casey said. "We're fighting for home court, we're fighting for respect."

This is the first time these teams have met since Brooklyn acquired Thaddeus Young from Minnesota on Feb. 19. Young has 20 points in two games after missing two with a hyperextended knee.

Lopez will likely be defended by fellow 7-footer Jonas Valanciunas, who has made 16 of 19 shots for 39 points with 31 rebounds in the season series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas oddsmakers tell the truth about betting tanking NBA teams
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

With fewer than 10 games remaining for NBA teams, we’ve officially reached that point in the season where the cream of the crop are fixated on jockeying for playoff position while the league’s bottom feeders commence the process of looking toward both the June draft and summer free agency period in an attempt to build a more competitive roster.

This is the time of year when coaches and front office personnel seriously consider a variety of ancillary factors in regards to the product they put out on the court each night.

Will Steve Kerr and the Warriors provide more rest than usual to stars like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson? Are there any teams in the Western Conference paying extra close attention to the standings in an effort to lock down a more favorable first-round matchup?

And, most importantly, will teams like the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Orlando Magic, among others, intentionally try to lose basketball games in an effort to secure a more favorable lottery selection?

The concept of a professional sports franchise intentionally losing games now in order to benefit in the future, otherwise known as “tanking,” is nothing new. Rumors abound everywhere from the NFL to the NBA to the NHL toward the end of each and every season that those situated at the bottom of the standings are actively trying to lose as often as possible in an attempt to acquire the services of the most elite talent set to enter each league’s respective draft.

But when it comes to wagering on professional sports, two integral questions must be answered in regards to this phenomenon: Is tanking something that is actually taking place and, if so, is there an edge to be gained in regards to the betting lines offered on the clubs in question?

The answer to our first inquiry is somewhat murky, as the common misconception in regards to tanking is that it’s the players on the court each night who are tasked with making sure the franchise comes up short of victory.

“The concept of tanking applies to the NBA front offices who are intentionally putting an inferior product on the floor, because the players are out there trying hard every night,” Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of race and sports at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. “And those front offices who are tanking have been doing so all along. Look around the league. The Knicks shut down Carmelo Anthony, the Timberwolves have taken a very cautious approach regarding injured players and the 76ers have actively been working to assemble one of the worst rosters possible.

“The Lakers most certainly are not tanking, as Monday night’s overtime win against Philadelphia was a must-lose situation for Los Angeles if tanking intentions were present,” said Sherman.

Perhaps the Lakers are trying to close out the current season on a high note, but that doesn’t mean Los Angeles’ 29 professional counterparts share the same frame of mind.

“I don’t know if I would use the word ‘tank,’ but if you mean lack of effort, I would circle the Magic and Knicks,” John Avello, director of race and sports at Wynn Encore Las Vegas.

At the close of business Wednesday night, the Magic were 1-4 both SU and ATS over its last five outings while the Knicks were 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS over its last 10 contests.

Avello elaborated to explain his approach when it comes to setting lines for games that involve teams who may be putting forth something less than 100 percent effort at this point in the season.

“If so-called ‘tanking’ teams are playing a team vying for a playoff spot, I’ll use two to three points higher than my power rating,” said Avello. “If not, then I use my normal rating.”

In regards to the specific bettor who attacks these types of situations, the question becomes whether or not the sophisticated gambler looks to gain an edge by identifying the teams with nothing to play for.

“Bettors only care to bet against the tanking teams if they are playing a squad that needs the game for a playoff spot or to improve their position,” said Avello. “Otherwise, nobody cares, just like the team.”

“The public is fading the tanking teams at this time of year, definitely not supporting them,” said Sherman. “For the most part, the general public either plays against them or passes. You really don’t see any sharp play involved in situations like these.”

Based on Avello’s thoughts regarding tanking teams playing organizations fighting for their playoff lives, the upcoming matchups may be worth monitoring:

Knicks: vs. Indiana (4/8), vs. Milwaukee (4/10)
76ers: at Charlotte (4/4), vs. Milwaukee (4/13)
Magic: at Milwaukee (4/4), vs. Chicago (4/8), vs. Toronto (4/10), at Brooklyn (4/15)
Timberwolves: at Portland (4/8), vs. Oklahoma City (4/15)
Lakers: vs. Portland (4/3), vs. LA Clippers (4/5), at LA Clippers (4/7), vs. Dallas (4/12)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Thunder at Grizzlies

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-4, OFF)

The Thunder, who will enter Friday with a 1 1/2-game lead on New Orleans for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, began a run of five straight foes currently locked into postseason slots with a wild 135-131 loss against Dallas on Wednesday. Russell Westbrook produced another triple-double with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists for Oklahoma City, which next goes home to take on Houston and San Antonio, two of the hotter teams in the league. The Rockets are tied with the Grizzlies for the second spot in the West, which might mean avoiding defending NBA champion San Antonio in the first round. Memphis snapped an ill-timed three-game losing streak with a 97-83 win over Sacramento on Monday in the opener of a four-game homestand.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSN Oklahoma, SportSouth (Memphis)

LINE HISTORY: Online books opened the line between Memphis -4 and -4.5.

INJURY REPORT: Thunder - C Steven Adams (Questionable, ankle), F Nick Collison (Out indefinitely, ankle), F Serge Ibaka (Out indefinitely, knee). Grizzlies - F Zach Randolph (Probable, elbow), G Tony Allen (Doubtful, hamstring).

POWER RANKINGS: Thunder (-7.5) + Grizzlies (-8.1) + home court (-3.0) = Grizzlies -3.6

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "At home, the Thunder are 23-6 SU and outscoring teams by over 9 PPG when favored. But as a road underdog, they are 4-16 SU and being outscored by 8.1 PPG. Losing three straight may not have been a big deal, even though they were handed their worst home loss of the season twice in a row. That's because the three opponents were: Cleveland, Golden State and San Antonio." Bryan Power.

ABOUT THE THUNDER (42-33 SU, 37-36-2 ATS, 36-37-1 O/U): Westbrook, who has 10 triple-doubles this season, can often carry his team, but he does need support and much of it has come from reserve Anthony Morrow. The shooting guard made 6-of-9 3-pointers en route to 32 points against Dallas and has hit a whopping 52.5 percent of his long-range attempts since the start of February. Regardless of how well those two produce on the offensive end, the Thunder have to solve some defensive woes that will not get any better if big man Steven Adams - who sprained his ankle Wednesday - is added to a heap of injured players who excel on that end of the court, including Serge Ibaka, Andre Roberson, Nick Collison and superstar Kevin Durant.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (51-24 SU, 35-38-2 ATS, 32-41-2 O/U): Memphis is missing a key defender as well in the form of forward Tony Allen, who has missed two straight games with a hamstring injury and is considered questionable to return Friday. Although the opponent in the slump-busting win on Monday was Sacramento, the Grizzlies - who had uncharacteristically given up at least 103 points in each of the three straight losses - felt good about clamping down on the defensive end. "We played Memphis Grizzlies basketball, which is defense," said reserve center Kosta Koufos, who had eight points, a season-high 12 rebounds and a season high-tying three blocks against the Kings.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Grizzlies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 Friday games.
* Over is 9-2 in Thunder last 11 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.

CONSENSUS: 51.76 percent are backing OKC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Blowouts making Magic a poor spread play
Justin Hartling

The Orlando Magic have dropped four consecutive games straight up and against the spread. The Magic have dropped those four contests by an average of 14.3 points per game, failing to miss the average spread by nearly nine points per contest.

Though Orlando ranks in the bottom fourth in offense in the NBA, they've managed to score fewer points than their season average during their last four.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Knicks not even close to covering spreads on road
Justin Hartling

The New York Knicks has lost their past five games straight up and against the spread. The Knicks have lost those past five road contests by an average of 21.6 points per game, while facing an average spread of +13.2.

It's been downright hard to watch as the Knicks have averaged a mere 86.6 points during their road skid.

New York travels to Washington to take on the Wizards Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Still in the hunt'

A pair of Atlantic Division foes with something to play for square off at the Barclays Center as Brooklyn Nets (34-40, 35-37-2 ATS) host Toronto Raptors (45-30, 35-39-1 ATS). Nets, thanks to a recent 7-1 (4-2-2 ATS) stretch are in a five-team battle for the seventh and eighth spots in the Eastern Conference playoffs. On the other side, Raptors despite having the division locked up have lots at stake over the remaining games. A strong finish Raptors can secure tipping off second season on home court and they also have an opportunity to finish third within the conference. Both teams want this win. But, the view from here, more so Nets as their season is in the danger zone. Raptors not the sharpest on the road of late at 3-9 SU with a 4-8 mark against the betting line including 1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS in an underdog roll and with a tendency to falter against the betting line during the month of April posting a 3-6-2 ATS mark the past eleven the lean is Brooklyn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, April 3 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews


Somewhat of an unusual schedule on a pretty busy Friday as only one game features two teams that for sure will make the playoffs: Thunder at Grizzlies in the first game of ESPN's doubleheader. The Thunder haven't clinched a spot yet, but it's probably only a matter of time -- although New Orleans still might have something to say about that. Memphis entered play Thursday tied with Houston (which was in Dallas on Thursday night) for the Southwest Division lead, and the winner of that probably gets the No. 2 seed in the West. Here's a look at every game Friday, with Blazers-Lakers also on ESPN.

Hornets at Pacers (-4, 192)

Charlotte 100 percent couldn't lose Wednesday at home to Detroit and didn't, rolling to a 102-78 victory. Before the game, Hornets center Al Jefferson had his right knee drained for the third time in eight days but decided to play. He finished with 11 points and nine rebounds. Coach Steve Clifford said Jefferson nearly sat out. I'm sure if the game meant nothing he would have. Lance Stephenson was benched a second straight game, and Clifford says Stephenson just doesn't "fit" right now. Indiana's playoff hopes are just about gone after a second straight loss Wednesday, this time 100-87 in Boston. Rodney Stuckey and C.J. Miles both played through injuries and combined for 28 points. They aren't 100 percent by any stretch. Indiana leads the season series 2-1. The Pacers defeated the Hornets 88-86 on Nov. 19 in Indianapolis and 103-102 on Feb. 8 in Charlotte. The Hornets defeated the Pacers 80-71 in overtime on Jan. 17 in Charlotte.

Key trends: The Hornets are 4-0-1 against the spread in the past five meetings. The " under" has hit in five of the past six meetings in Indiana.

Early lean: Pacers and under.

Knicks at Wizards (-15, 191)

New York lost an eighth straight Wednesday but at least tried this time, falling 100-98 at home to Brooklyn. Rookie Cleanthony Early missed a 3-pointer that would have won it on the Knicks' final possession. Washington beat visiting Philly 106-93 on Wednesday. Otto Porter started in place of Paul Pierce (rest) and finished with 15 points. Forward Kris Humphries was back after missing 16 games. Washington swept last season's series and is going for the same in this one, meaning the Wizards have won six straight overall against New York. Two of those six have come in Washington. John Wall is averaging 17.7 points and .8.7 assists in this season's three games.

Key trends: The road team is 5-0 ATS in the past five. The over is 7-1 in Washington's past eight at home.

Early lean: Knicks and under.

Bucks at Celtics (-5.5, 193.5)

Milwaukee surprised Chicago 95-91 on Wednesday to avoid the season sweep. Didn't see that coming. Michael Carter-Williams had 21 points and 10 rebounds as the Bucks ended a nine-game home losing streak in the series. The previous time Milwaukee won a home game against Chicago was Feb. 26, 2011. Boston won a second straight Wednesday, 100-87 over Indiana. Google "Kelly Olynyk eye" and you will see his ghastly bruised left eye suffered when teammate Shavlik Randolph elbowed him accidentally earlier in the day. I'm not sure how Olynyk could see, but he finished with 19 points. These teams have played only once but will close the regular season against one another. The Bucks won at home 96-93 over Boston on Feb. 7. Ex-Buck Brandon Knight was the star of that with 26 points and the key jumper with 6.7 seconds left.

Key trends: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 8-3 in the past 11.

Early lean: Celtics and under.

Raptors at Nets (-2, 205)

Toronto won a third straight Wednesday, 113-99 at Minnesota. Six Raptors scored at least 13, and Toronto shot 55.3 percent from the field. All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry missed a fourth straight game with a back injury and is almost surely not going to play against Brooklyn. The Nets won a fifth straight Wednesday in edging the Knicks on a Brook Lopez tip-in rebound with two seconds left. Brooklyn had blown a 16-point lead to the NBA's worst team. Lopez finished with 18 points on his birthday. Toronto leads the season series 2-1 and won in Brooklyn 127-122 in overtime on Jan. 30. Jarrett Jack scored a career-high 35 points while playing 52 minutes for the Nets and had 13 assists and eight rebounds. Amir Johnson made the tying dunk late in regulation for the Raptors and the tiebreaking basket late in OT.

Key trends: Toronto is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings. The over is 6-2 in the past eight in Brooklyn.

Early lean: Nets and over.

Pistons at Bulls (-8.5, 195)

Chicago's three-game winning streak ended 95-91 in Milwaukee on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler had 25 points and seven rebounds, but it wasn't enough as the Bulls' seven-game winning streak in the series ended and it dropped Chicago into a tie for the No. 3 seed with Toronto. Bulls backup guard Kirk Hinrich left with an injury, so he's probably out Friday. Detroit lost 102-78 in Charlotte on Wednesday as star center Andre Drummond battled foul trouble. Greg Monroe missed yet another game for the Pistons. Chicago won the first meeting at home very early in the season but has lost the past two in Detroit. The Pistons look to win the season series for the first time since the 2005-06 season.

Key trends: The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their past five in Chicago. The over is 4-1 in the past five meetings overall.

Early lean: Bulls and over.

Thunder at Grizzlies (TBA)

Oklahoma City lost a wild game 135-131 at home to Dallas on Wednesday. How wild? Russell Westbrook had his 10th triple-double of the season with 31 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists, and Anthony Morrow added 32 points and Enes Kanter 30. The Thunder became the first team to lose with three players scoring at least 30 since Portland lost to Phoenix in four overtimes in 1997. Memphis has been off since ending a three-game losing streak with a 97-83 home win over the Kings on Monday. Guard Tony Allen missed a second straight game with a left hamstring injury and probably won't play here. Zach Randolph injured his elbow late in the game, but it doesn't seem serious (but why TBA). Memphis leads the series 2-1 and won the home game 85-74 at the end of January.

Key trends: The home team has covered the past four meetings. The over is 9-2 in OKC's past 11 on the road.

Early lean: Wait on Randolph. Grizzlies win if he plays.

Magic at Timberwolves (TBA)

Minnesota lost a fifth straight, fourth in a row by double digits, 113-99 at home to Toronto on Wednesday. The Wolves are so injury-riddled right now they started three rookies and two players the team picked up off waivers during the season. It actually looks possible for Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin to return for this game. Orlando dropped a fourth straight Wednesday, 103-91 at home to San Antonio. Dewayne Dedmon returned to the starting lineup after missing four of the last five games with a sore left ankle. If Dewayne Dedmon is starting, you have problems. Orlando beat visiting Minnesota 113-103 in overtime on Nov. 7 for its seventh straight home win in the series and 10th overall in the past 12 meetings.

Key trends: The Magic are 0-4 ATS in their past four vs. teams with a losing record. Minnesota has failed to cover five straight at home. The over is 4-0 in the Wolves' past four.

Early lean: Wait on all the Wolves.

Nuggets at Spurs (-12.5, 208)

San Antonio officially clinched a playoff berth with Wednesday's easy win in Orlando. It was the second of a back-to-back, and Coach Gregg Popovich played his key guys, but Tim Duncan was on the floor for only 12 minutes. No Spurs starter played more than 22 minutes. The Spurs are 15-3 since Feb. 27 and have now made the postseason in 18 consecutive seasons. Denver lost a second straight Wednesday, 98-84 at Utah. The Nuggets are 8-8 since Melvin Hunt took over as interim coach March 3. San Antonio is 3-0 against Denver, winning each by at least eight points. The Spurs have won six straight overall in the series and four in a row at home.

Key trends: Denver is 10-2 ATS in its past 12 at San Antonio. The under is 5-0 in the Spurs' past five after a win.

Early lean: Nuggets and over.

Pelicans at Kings (+6, 207)

New Orleans is not dead in the playoff race and won its third straight Wednesday, 113-92 at the Lakers. Anthony Davis scored 20 points as the Pelicans moved within 1.5 games of No. 8 Oklahoma City. Reserve forward Ryan Anderson played for the first time since Feb. 21, getting 17 points in 22 minutes after missing 18 games because of a sprained right knee. Sacramento lost 115-111 in Houston on Wednesday. DeMarcus Cousins surprisingly played and had 24 points, 21 rebounds, 10 assists and six blocks, but Rudy Gay was out injured and probably won't play in this one. New Orleans is 2-1 vs. Sacramento and just beat the Kings 102-88 in the Big Easy on March 27 despite 39 points and 20 rebounds from Cousins. Davis, another former Kentucky star, wasn't so bad himself with 24 points, nine rebounds and six blocks.

Key trends: The road team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five in Sacramento.

Early lean: Kings (as long as Cousins plays) and over.

Trail Blazers at Lakers (+8.5, 200)

I'll admit I thought Portland would beat the visiting Clippers on Wednesday with L.A. coming off a crushing home loss to the Warriors, but the Blazers lost 126-122 to end their four-game winning streak. A win would have clinched the Northwest Division title for Portland, which led by as many as 19. The Blazers suffered yet another injury when it was announced that reserve Dorell Wright had fractured his hand. He's obviously out a while. L.A. lost by 21 at home to New Orleans on Wednesday. Jeremy Lin scored 10 points in 28 minutes after sitting out two games with an upper-respiratory infection. The Lakers have now been swept in a season series of four or more games by three teams in 2014-15. Portland has won all three games between these two teams this season (98-94, 106-94, 102-86) and has swept the Lakers in a season series since 1993-94. The Blazers also have won three straight at Staples Center.

Key trends: The road team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past four.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament Opening Betting Line Report: Inside the Final Four odds
By COLIN KELLY

After two weekends of wall-to-wall basketball, full of heart-pounding wins and losses – for teams, bettors and sportsbooks alike – the NCAA Tournament is down to the Final Four. And it should be just as much of a screamer as the rest of the Big Dance.

You’ve got top overall seed Kentucky (38-0 SU, 19-17-2 ATS) aiming to complete a perfect season, something that hasn’t been done since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Wildcats got arguably their sternest test all season when they held off No. 3 seed Notre Dame 68-66 as an 11-point favorite in the Midwest Region final Saturday. That gave Kentucky a date with fellow top seed Wisconsin (35-3 SU, 20-17-1 ATS), which bested No. 2 seed Arizona 85-78 as a 1.5-point underdog in the West final.

On Sunday, No. 1 seed Duke (33-4 SU, 22-14-1 ATS) stifled No. 2 seed Gonzaga 66-52 laying 1.5 points in the South final, and No. 7 seed Michigan State (27-11 SU, 22-16 ATS) – a 2-point chalk – topped No. 4 seed Louisville 76-70 in overtime in the East final.

So how do things shape up for the Final Four? John Avello, executive director of race and sports for The Wynn, and John Lester, provide their insights.

No. 1 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Kentucky (-6.5)

It’s a rematch from last year’s Final Four, which Kentucky won 74-73 to push as a 1-point fave.

“This is one of the lower numbers Kentucky’s had through the whole year,” Avello , and in fact, the ‘Cats have been double-digit chalk in all their postseason games – in the SEC and NCAA tourneys. “Wisconsin is a quality team, with good shooters outside and great players inside. Now, they need to beat the big dog to have a chance to win the title.

“In my ratings, I had Kentucky at 5.5 or 6, but that just felt a little light to me.”

Lester said his crew batted around a range of numbers before going with Avello’s initial feeling, making Kentucky a 5.5-point favorite.

“Many believed these were the best two teams in the country coming into the tournament, and you could easily make that argument now,” Lester . “Kentucky has been a public darling all year of course, but the Badgers have had a lot of square and sharp support throughout the Big Dance.

“Our guys were between 4 to 7 points for this matchup. We shaded toward the favorite because we will need to attract some money on Wisconsin.”

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5)

Duke is no surprise in the matchup. Michigan State is, to a degree.

“You’ve got a team nobody expected to get there this year,” Avello said. “Michigan State has a history of getting through the tournament, but this year didn’t seem like their year. Hats off to Coach Tom Izzo again for the way he gets his team ready to win it all – not to win the Big Ten, but to win it all.”

So what about the number?

“At the beginning of the tournament, Duke would have been favored by 8 to 9 points over Michigan State,” Avello said. “My adjustment has been made. Michigan State is better now than at the beginning of the tournament, but is Duke worse? I don’t think so.”

As with the Wisconsin-Kentucky line, Lester came in a little tighter, with Michigan State opening at +4.5. But he entertained 5.5 and fully expects the number to jump.

“The Spartans just feel like that team of destiny, like UConn last year. But they are overmatched from a personnel perspective here,” Lester said. “Michigan State claws to come back and win games, while the Blue Devils grind to preserve wins.

“I felt like we could’ve made this a point higher, and I’m expecting the number to jump throughout the week.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence

NCAA Final Four Out

It’s onward to Indy for the Final Four games.

To put the wraps on the 2015 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Nap Town this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent, dating back as far as 1991 unless noted otherwise.

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds not favored more than 5 points are 17-8 ATS (Duke, Kentucky and Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 4-1 ATS as a dog (Wisconsin)

#1 Seeds who are conference tourney champs are 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss (Kentucky)

ACC teams are 6-1 ATS (Duke)

SEC teams are 0-3-1 ATS (Kentucky)

Big 10 dogs are 3-5-1 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

Teams off a SU dog win are 5-0-1 ATS (Wisconsin)

Dogs who are 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 8-17-1 ATS (Michigan State)

Teams with revenge are 3-10 ATS (Michigan State and Wisconsin)

CHAMPIONSHIP NOTES

#1 Seed favs. are 8-2 ATS

#5 or worse Seeds are 1-6 SU & 2-5 ATS

Favorites of 5 < pts are 12-2 ATS

Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 5-1 ATS

Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 2-6 ATS

Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 0-5 ATS

SEC teams are 3-1 ATS

ACC teams are 7-3 ATS

Big 10 teams are 0-5 ATS

COACH ME UP

Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski is:
65-19 SU and 41-41-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
48-12 SU and 35-25 ATS vs. Big 10
14-4 SU and 10-8 ATS vs. SEC
2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
47-14 SU and 35-27-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
17-10 SU and 13-14 ATS vs. ACC
11-6 SU and 9-7-1 ATS vs. Big 10
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
1-0 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Michigan State’s John Tom Izzo is:
46-16 SU and 36-24-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
13-24 SU and 18-19 ATS vs. ACC
250-122 SU and 206-171-4-1 ATS vs. Big 10
15-4 SU an 12-6-1 ATS vs. SEC
1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
1-2 1-8 SU and 5-4 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski
12-16 SU and 16-12 ATS vs. Bo Ryan

Wisconsin’s Bo Ryan is:
24-13 SU and 21-14-2 ATS in NCAA tournament
11-10 SU and 15-6 ATS vs. ACC
189-83 SU and 135-133-4 ATS vs. Big 10
8-5 SU and 7-4-2 ATS vs. SEC
0-1 SU and 0-0-1 ATS vs. John Calipari
16-12 SU and 12-16 ATS vs. Tom Izzo
1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS vs. Mike Krzyzewski

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and Championship games played over the last 26 years.

Enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament Final Four Achilles' Heels
Antony Dinero

By now, having watched each Final Four participant survive four games in this NCAA Tournament, you know the deal in terms of why these teams excel.

Duke beat Gonzaga in spite of an off night from Jahlil Okafor, locking up defensively and limiting mistakes to the tune of three turnovers. Despite shooting 37.5 percent, the Blue Devils won comfortably.

Kentucky is probably the best defensive team ever. Willie Cauley-Stein is an athletic marvel whose ability to lock up an opponent’s top scorer and alter shots at the rim is the No. 1 reason the Wildcats are two wins from immortality. His defense on Jerian Grant on Notre Dame’s final possession ensured there would be no Christian Laettner-type moment in Cleveland.

Michigan State is mentally tougher than guys their age should be. The Spartans can overcome Denzel Valentine’s errors or Travis Trice suffering through a cold streak by simply moving on to the next play. That type of resiliency, fostered in part by 11 losses they’ve overcome to get to this point, has proven invaluable.

Wisconsin’s team, more than any other that will take the court in Indianapolis, plays with one heartbeat. The Badgers seem to be in sync and have a general idea of where everyone on the floor is supposed to be and what they’re supposed to be doing. It’s no surprise that they rank so highly in both offensive and defensive efficiency. They’ve already set a school record for victories and have won 20 of 21 games.

Head coaches Mike Krzyzewski, John Calipari, Tom Izzo and Bo Ryan are each among college basketball’s all-time greats, either already in the Hall of Fame or ensured of future induction. Their teams will be prepared.

We know why these Final Four participants are great, but only one team won’t taste defeat. The following is why they may lose. Here’s what can trip them up:

Duke – The Blue Devils are really at their best when both Tyus Jones and Quinn Cook are on the floor. It’s no surprise Coach K had them on the floor all 40 minutes against Gonzaga and 38 minutes apiece against Utah. The offense is more effective with twin point guards in part because the team’s wings and big men are all so young. Okafor, Justise Winslow and Matt Jones are all freshmen. Krzyzewski’s youngest team ever has reached this point because they’ve got two facilitators, one a freshman himself in Jones, who can set the table and handle pressure. Remove one from the equation, which Michigan State can do by isolating them against their bigger guards, and Krzyzewski would have a huge issue on his hands.

It’s worth noting that although both played nearly every second of their most recent loss to Notre Dame in the ACC Tournament, Jones and Cook combined to shoot 6-for-25, including 2-for-13 from 3-point range. Although Okafor gets most of the national attention as the most prized prospect in college hoops, the secret is out now that Duke won in spite of him scoring in single-digits the past two games. The Blue Devils backcourt is this team’s driving force and there’s no safety net in place behind them.

Kentucky – For whatever reason, Notre Dame didn’t double Karl-Anthony Towns in the post. As a result, the ‘Cats went 10-for-12 from the field over the final 13 minutes of their 68-66 win, including hitting their last nine shots. Towns made five of the 10 baskets, imposing his will on the smaller Zach Auguste on a series of short hooks and layups. As great as the Fighting Irish played, they showed everyone how not to defend Kentucky, since you have to collapse on the post and dare the team’s shooters to make open 3-pointers. Both Aaron Harrison and Tyler Ulis hit huge shots from beyond the arc, but you simply have to take your chances that they’ll miss those shots.

So long as Cauley-Stein stays out of foul trouble, putting together consistent offense against UK is going to be a chore. An off-shooting night must be part of the equation if you’re going to pull the upset, and outside of Devin Booker and Ulis, no one shoots over 40 percent from 3-point range. Aaron Harrison, the team’s leader in makes, has made less than 32 percent, although you can’t argue that he’s clutch. On a team with few weaknesses, consistency from the perimeter may be the most glaring, so look for Ryan’s game plan to involve giving up the open look if it means shutting down the post.

Michigan State – Izzo knows his team has warts. He’s well aware that his trio of Valentine, Trice and Branden Dawson have their flaws, but also have a fighting spirit that permeates through the group and lifts up the role players. Matt Costello, Gavin Schilling, Marvin Clark, Tum-Tum Nairn and Bryn Forbes all had their moments against Louisville, so they’ll be confident entering this matchup with Duke. That makes depth a significant advantage, but also means that the Spartans will again be relying on a number of players who can blow up at the free-throw line.

Although the struggles of Duke’s Okafor are magnified since he’s a 51 percent shooter and air-balled one against Gonzaga, Michigan State is actually much worse from the charity stripe. Clark missed his two attempts against the Cardinals, but fellow bigs Dawson, Costello and Schilling combined to shoot 7-for-8. Collectively, that group shoots 54 percent (137-for-251) on the season, which could come back to bite Michigan State if the percentages balance out and they miss key attempts down the stretch that they managed to make in hanging on against the ‘Ville.

Wisconsin – Center Frank Kaminsky and forward Sam Dekker have played like guys that made every preseason All-American list are expected to, but the Badgers guards are certainly where you can attack Ryan’s team. Sixth man Traevon Jackson is still working off the rust after being sidelined for months, while sophomore Bronson Koenig and senior Josh Gasser certainly make up the least heralded starting backcourt left in the field. Kentucky’s Harrison twins and Ulis, all former McDonald’s All-Americans, are a far more dynamic group. If they can impose their will, Wisconsin will fall short in a second consecutive national semifinal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four Betting Outlook
By Jim Feist

The Final Four!

It is a great week for sports fans with the start of baseball, the NBA stretch run, the Final Four and the culmination of the college basketball season next Monday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana for the national championship. It's clear that it's not the teams the start the season hot, but the ones that get hot when it really matters -- March and April!

Many things happen over the course of a long season. Some teams play great basketball in December and January, only to break down from injuries or run out of steam down the stretch.

For example, North Carolina started 17-4 but as February started the Tar Heels showed vulnerability, losing six of 10. A year ago Syracuse started hot before losing its first game in mid-February. From that point on they struggled to score and win, getting bounced by North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament.

It works the other way, too. A team can have a tough non-conference schedule or need time to work in new pieces, then get hot down the stretch. Last season Michigan State overcame injuries in mid-season before getting healthy - - and hot, ripping through the Big 10 tournament with a 3-0 record both straight up and against the spread.

It’s important to examine how a team played with overall stats, but also in three different sections:

1) Early non-conference play

2) Conference play

3) Tournament time

Two years ago, Miami started 22-3 before the national spotlight and a key injury took a toll, losing in the tourney to Marquette, 71-61. The previous year Missouri started 17-0 before stumbling in midseason, while Villanova won 16 of 17 to start the season, then broke down with injuries and poor play, finishing 3-10 SU and 1-12 ATS.

Kansas always seems to have the spotlight on it. This season they started great, then had some erratic play down the stretch, including losses at Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. The previous season the Jayhawks had a late season injury to 7-footer Joel Imbiid (11PPG, 8 RPG), the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, a huge blow.

The Jayhawks may have won the title seven years ago, but nine years ago it was a very different story: The Jayhawks started 20-1, only to go 3-6 straight up and 1-8 against the spread the last nine games. They never made it to the Final Four because of a 64-63 loss to Bucknell as a 13½-point favorite in the first round.

Other times an easy early season schedule, youth, bad coaching, untimely injuries, bad luck, poor team chemistry or a combination of these can cut down a potentially great team. Youth and a loss of its best players toppled Florida after winning back-to-back titles and prevented a North Carolina repeat in 2010.

Duke has seen its title hopes dashed in recent years, a stunning loss to Lehigh as 11-point chalk and last season getting bounced by Mercer, 78-71. This is nothing new. Gonzaga was taken down by Wichita two years ago, and four years ago No. 1 seed Pittsburgh saw its hopes crushed in a loss to Butler, 71-70. A few years ago No. 2 seed Georgetown took itself out of the tournament, blowing a 46-29 lead by trying to stall against Davidson with far too much time left.

It is very easy for sports bettors to look into trends to try and predict the future.

Trends can be helpful if there are reasons to support it. For example, from a betting perspective, what stands out about the last 10 Finals Fours?

2014
Florida 53 -6.5
UConn 63 - -126

Wisconsin 73 - 139
Kentucky 74 -2

2013
Wichita State 68 -131
Louisville 72 - -11

Syracuse 56 - 131
Michigan 61 -2

2012
Ohio State 62 - 3
Kansas 64 - 136

Louisville 61 - 136.5
Kentucky 69 -8

2011
Butler 70 - 3.5
VCU 62 - 133

Kentucky 55 - 131
UConn 56 - +2.5

2010
Butler 52 - 1.5
Michigan State 50 - 125

West Virginia 57 - 130
Duke 78 - -2.5

2009
Michigan State 82 - 135
UConn 73 - 4

North Carolina 83 - 7.5
Villanova 69 - 160

2008
Kansas 84 - 158
North Carolina 66 - 3

UCLA 63 - 135
Memphis 78 - 3

2007
Georgetown 60 - 1
Ohio St. 67 - 130

UCLA 66 - 131
Florida 76 - 3

2006
George Mason 58 - 132
Florida 73 - -6

LSU 45 - -2
UCLA 59 - 123

2005
Louisville 57 - 144
Illiniois 72 - -3

Michigan St. 71 - 153
North Carolina 87 - -2

2004
Georgia Tech 67 - 139
Oklahoma St. 65 - -4

UConn 79 - -2
Duke 78 - 144

2003
Marquette 61 - -4½
Kansas 94 - 153½

Syracuse 95 - 153
Texas 84 - -3

2002
Indiana 73 - 134
Oklahoma 64 -6½

Maryland 97 - 168
Kansas 88 - -1½

What stands out is that it has been the day of the dog. The underdog is 15-9-1 against the number, with 12 dogs winning straight up, including UConn last year. In addition, the games have gone 12-6 to the ‘under’ the last nine years.

You can even make an argument that this would be the right time of the season to take a shot with the ‘dog on the money-line. However, this is where one needs patience, because trends can also be a fool's paradise.

If you go back to the previous three Final Fours before the above content analysis, 1999-01, we find Duke topping Maryland 95-84, Arizona blowing out Michigan State 80-61, Michigan State beating Wisconsin 53-41, Florida topping North Carolina 71-59, UConn beating Ohio State 64-58 and Duke surviving Michigan State 68-62. What stands out is that the favorite won and covered in five of six, for a hefty 5-1 spread record.

Even looking at totals, a similar pattern emerges. The last 13 years the ‘over/under’ has been almost equal, 14-12 ‘under’ in the Final Four. The three years before that the ‘under’ prevailed at a 5-1 clip. All of a sudden, those who look solely at trends as the key to the sports betting kingdom are stuck at close to a .500 winning percentage ATS.

For the record, going back the last 20 years, the ‘under’ is 24-16 in the Final Four, with 21 ‘dogs covering while 18 favorites have gotten the money with one push. Again, trends are worth examining, but there needs to be reasons behind them if you're serious about putting down hard earned money on a side.

Perhaps the most significant stat that stands out is that 16 of the 21 dogs that covered ended up winning the game outright, which shows how competitive and relatively evenly matched the games become when teams get this far in the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting: 2015 FINAL FOUR MATCHUP BREAKDOWNS
Scott Spreitzer

– Sixty-four games have been played…leaving us with #1 seeds Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke, and then a mis-seeded #7 Michigan State left to battle for the 2015 National Championship this weekend in Indianapolis.

When handicapping the Final Four, it’s very important to focus on the classic fundamentals. That’s a key factor in why all four of these programs (and all four of these veteran head coaches) are still alive in the brackets. Fundamentals will likely determine who cuts down the nets Monday night. That’s what matters most when championships are on the line!

Let’s take a quick look at each matchup.


KENTUCKY VS. WISCONSIN

Better offense: Too close to call, slight edge to Wisconsin
Better defense: Kentucky by a lot

More meaningful depth: Kentucky

Some may be surprised that I’m giving such a large edge to Kentucky on the defensive side of the floor. The media has spent a lot of time this postseason raving about the Wisconsin defense. They were even doing that while all Wisconsin could do was grab and foul Arizona down the stretch last Saturday because the Badgers couldn’t guard the Wildcats!

Wisconsin creates the illusion of great defense by holding onto the ball so long on offense. That creates lower scoring games. But, holding onto the ball isn’t the same as stealing the ball, blocking shots, or forcing opponents into bad looks. When you adjust for pace and strength of schedule, Wisconsin doesn’t even have one of the best 50 defenses in the nation on a per-possession basis (according to Ken Pomeroy’s trusted statistical website). Kentucky is best in the nation after making those adjustments. Bottom line: Kentucky’s defensive fundamentals and skill sets are significantly better.

Who’s going to make more plays on offense because of their mastery of fundamentals? Wisconsin has a shot to do that. Though they are likely to cool off from that crazy second half shooting performance on treys they enjoyed in the Elite 8. Both of these teams have multiple threats and are able to score from all over the floor (and the free throw line). Both work the ball to high percentage spots on the floor.

Kentucky was posted as a 6-point favorite out of the gate because of that superior defense, and because their roster is so deep that they can handle fatigue, foul trouble, and most anything except red hot three-point shooting from an opponent.


DUKE VS. MICHIGAN STATE

Better offense: Duke
Better defense: Very close

More meaningful depth: Michigan State

Duke joins Wisconsin and Kentucky on the list of most efficient offenses in the nation because they can beat you inside and outside while protecting the ball. This year’s team has more athleticism than past Duke entries, while maintaining a high basketball IQ and a sense of movement. Michigan State is better than its reputation offensively. The Spartans “plod” their way to effectiveness in a way that doesn’t always please the eye. But, they are a top 20 team in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Michigan State has a better defensive reputation than Duke. That’s once again an illusion created by pace. Duke likes to push tempo when they can. Michigan State is much more methodical, only taking fast break opportunities in the most obvious situations. Once you adjust for pace, these defenses are fairly similar in their effectiveness.

Whether or not depth will be a factor in this one will depend on officiating. You saw Michigan State handle a pair of players fouling out vs. Louisville. Duke doesn’t have that luxury. A tightly called game favors Michigan State, because Duke will have to back off inside. If the refs let them play, Duke’s most dynamic talent will be able to stay on the floor the whole way.

(Quick note on our theme of fundamentals: Duke only suffered three offensive turnovers the whole game against Gonzaga!)

Duke is a market favorite (about 4-5 points on the early line) because of their superior seed, and their superior form in this event. But note that Michigan State beat Virginia in the Round of 32…the team that won Duke’s conference during the regular season.

Of course Saturday’s winners play Monday night. If Kentucky advances as a favorite, they will have a clear defensive edge over either Duke or Michigan State. But, the game they had to sweat with Notre Dame shows that any talented opponent has a chance to hang with or beat Kentucky in a 40-minute war on a neutral court. Odds favor the coronation of an undefeated champ. Fans and bettors just might be in for a very interesting weekend.

BOL in the Final Four..Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball Betting: Final 4 Betting Trends
Carlo Campanella

– And then there were 4...We head into April 4th's Final 4 games with 3 of our 4 number 1 seeds still alive in the Tourney. Carlo Campanella updates his March Madness betting trends for the Final 4 games as Vegas has posted the opening lines on both of these games at -5 points, with #1 Duke favored over Michigan State and #1 Kentucky favored over another #1 seed in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin (#1) vs Kentucky (#1)
Kentucky 8-2 SU & 3-5-2 ATS in 10 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 3-0 SU & 1-0-2 ATS last 3 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky beat Wisconsin 74-73 in last year's (2014) Final 4
Wisconsin is 0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS in their only 2 Final 4 appearances
Kentucky 1-3 Over/Under last 4 Final 4 games


Michigan State (#7) vs Duke (#1)
Duke 4-1 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
Duke 2-1 Over/Under in last 3 Final 4 games
Duke's last Final 4 appearance was 2010
MSU 0-2 SU & ATS last 2 Final 4 games
MSU 1-4 SU & ATS last 5 Final 4 appearances
MSU 2-3 Over/Under last 5 Final 4 games
MSU's last Final 4 appearance was 2010

Good luck, as always...Carlo Campanella.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Rematch on!'

The 2015 NCAA College Basketball 'Big Dance' is down to the Final Four with #1 seeds Kentucky, Wisconsin, Duke and #7 seed Michigan State still standing. In the first matchup Coach 'K' marking his 12th trip to the Final Four looks for a repeat of the '99 Semifinal in which his then -11 point favorite Blue Devils defeated Tom Izzo's Spartans 68-62. This years version of the Blue Devils will be looking to repeat a 81-71 victory over Spartans earlier this season. Duke enters the contest on a 4-1 SU/ATS semifinal streak, Spartans a 1-4 SU/ATS skid in its last five appearances. The Saturday night finale is a rematch of the 2014 Tourney semifinal which Wildcats won 74-73 as 2-point favorite. Kentucky brings to the floor an 8-2 SU record its last 10 Final Four but are a money-burning 3-5-2 mark against the betting line. Wisconsin is 0-2 (1-1 ATS) in it's only two Final Four appearances. Other trends of interest: Underdogs have thrived in this round the past four years (5-2-1 ATS) and have a slight edge since '07 (8-7-1 ATS). Before taking a shot with the 'Dogs' a few betting nuggets to ponder. Teams with same season revenge (Spartans) are a poor 4-11 ATS and teams (Badgers) looking to revenge a previous season loss have a cash-draining 2-5 ATS mark. Both Duke and Kentucky are hovering around 5-point favorite to meet in Monday night's Championship game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Odds to win Most Outstanding Player

Odds to win 2015 Most Outstanding Player

Karl-Anthony Towns (Kentucky) 7/2
Willie Cauley-Stein (Kentucky) 4/1
Jahlil Okafor (Duke) 11/2
Justise Winslow (Duke) 6/1
Aaron Harrison (Kentucky) 8/1
Frank Kaminsky (Wisconsin) 17/2
Sam Dekker (Wisconsin) 10/1
Travis Trice (Michigan State) 12/1
Quinn Cook (Duke) 15/1
Denzel Valentine (Michigan State) 18/1
Andrew Harrison (Kentucky) 20/1
Tyrus Jones (Duke) 20/1
Branden Dawson (Michigan State) 25/1
Nigel Hayes (Wisconsin) 25/1
Trey Lyles (Kentucky) 50/1

NCAA Men's Division I Most Outstanding Player Award (1985-2014)

2014 – Shabazz Napier, Connecticut
2013 – Luke Hancock, Louisville
2012 – Anthony Davis, Kentucky
2011 – Kemba Walker, Connecticut
2010 – Kyle Singler, Duke
2009 – Wayne Ellington, North Carolina
2008 – Mario Chalmers, Kansas
2007 – Corey Brewer, Florida
2006 – Joakim Noah, Florida
2005 – Sean May, North Carolina
2004 – Emeka Okafor, Connecticut
2003 – Carmelo Anthony, Syracuse
2002 – Juan Dixon, Maryland
2001 – Shane Battier, Duke
2000 – Mateen Cleaves, Michigan State
1999 – Richard Hamilton, Connecticut
1998 – Jeff Sheppard, Kentucky
1997 – Miles Simon, Arizona
1996 – Tony Delk, Kentucky
1995 – Ed O'Bannon, UCLA
1994 – Corliss Williamson, Arkansas
1993 – Donald Williams, North Carolina
1992 – Bobby Hurley, Duke
1991 – Christian Laettner, Duke
1990 – Anderson Hunt, UNLV
1989 – Glen Rice, Michigan
1988 – Danny Manning, Kansas
1987 – Keith Smart, Indiana
1986 – Pervis Ellison, Louisville
1985 – Ed Pinckney, Villanova