Friday's Top Action
N.C. STATE WOLFPACK (22-13) vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (26-8)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:37 p.m. ET
Line: Louisville -3.0
In an ACC rematch from mid-February, the stakes are higher as Louisville looks for revenge against North Carolina State and a spot in the Elite Eight.
Upstart No. 8 seed North Carolina State is fresh off being the first team in 2015 to drop a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (71-68 on Saturday against Villanova). The Wolfpack were +9.5, but are no strangers to winning SU as heavy underdogs, as you can just ask their Sweet 16 opponents, Louisville, about that. On Feb. 14 these new ACC foes met for the first time in-conference with Louisville as a 10.5-point home favorite only to watch North Carolina State pull off a 74-65 road win. The Cardinals get their shot at redemption against the Wolfpack after a sluggish win over No. 13 seed UC Irvine (57-55) and then a win as 2.5-point underdogs over Northern Iowa (66-53) on Sunday.
Louisville comes into this contest really struggling to cover (3-7 ATS) over their past 10 games. This will also mark the seventh game (eighth game overall) that Louisville plays without dismissed G Chris Jones (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS without Jones). This will be the third time that Louisville will have a “rematch game” (versus a team they lost to) and they won-and-covered both previous instances (Virginia, North Carolina) in the regular season. Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried is 9-10 overall in NCAA Tournament play between his career at Murray State, Alabama and North Carolina State (4-3 with the Wolfpack). Louisville coach Rick Pitino’s NCAA Tournament success is well documented as the only collegiate coach in history to take three different schools to a Final Four. A two-time national champion (Kentucky, Louisville), Pitino’s Cardinals are looking to avoid losing in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.
In the Valentine’s Day victory at Louisville, North Carolina State was led by its backcourt’s contribution of 45 points combined. Led by G Anthony “Cat” Barber (12.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) who scored 21 of those 45 points (10-for-13 at the free throw line) and supported by G Trevor Lacey (15.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 3PM/G) who had 14 points and senior G Ralston Turner (12.8 PPG, 2.6 3PM/G) who chipped in 10 points, the Wolfpack guards did their part on offense while holding Louisville stars Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to a combined 14 points, while also getting Rozier to foul out in 28 minutes.
The North Carolina State big men also did their part, leading the Wolfpack to a +10 margin on the glass (47-37). C Beejay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 19.3 MPG) contributed eight points, 10 boards and three blocks in the win, while staying on the court for 28 minutes. Anya, who you’ll remember hit the game-winning shot against LSU in the round of 64 to keep the Wolfpack alive in this tournament, is extremely foul prone, but must stay on the floor to battle Louisville’s size. North Carolina State is 6-1 when Anya plays 25+ minutes.
Another young, foul-prone Wolfpack big man, freshman F Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 PPG) has also proven himself integral to North Carolina State’s recent success, as he’s scored double-figures in his past three games. Bruising sophomore F Leonard Freeman (3.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) rounds out the frontcourt, and was a key part in the Wolfpack’s upset over Villanova on Saturday while collecting a double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds). Another win over the Cardinals, though, will begin and end with the Wolfpack’s backcourt taking care of the ball, as Barber, Lacey and Turner only turned it over four times in the first meeting against Louisville’s vaunted defense. North Carolina State only commits 10.5 turnovers per game (22nd in NCAA) which bodes well for repeat success.
The Cardinals seem to have finally found their footing playing without the aforementioned Jones, even though creating easy offense continues to be a problem (61.0 PPG in eight games without Jones). As much as Coach Pitino’s style is a frenetic, pressing, quick-shooting team, this season’s version (at least on offense) is anything but, as both tournament wins over UC Irvine and Northern Iowa have seen Louisville with efficient but very slow-paced offense (57 and 54 possessions, respectively). Part of that had to do with their opponent, but some of it seems to be Pitino playing to his personnel. The Cardinals executed well to the tune of 46% from the field against Northern Iowa and capitalized from the free throw line (17-for-21).
No player came up bigger in the round of 32 than G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2 SPG) who put up his most efficient and effective outing since shouldering more of the scoring load with Jones’ departure (25 points, five rebounds, seven assists, 8-for-13 FG, 8-for-9 FT). Rozier can ill-afford a repeat performance of fouling out with single-digits as he did in the first meeting against the Wolfpack. Jones scored 19 points in that loss to keep Louisville afloat, but the Cardinals obviously don’t have that same depth in the backcourt to fall back on. G Quentin Snider (3.8 PPG) has been steady as the new starter flanking Rozier, scoring double-figures in five of his eight starts, including back-to-back games (on 10-for-20 FG) during the NCAA Tournament. Snider isn’t, however, the havoc-inducing defensive force that the departed Jones was in the open floor.
F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 57% FG) leads the Louisville frontcourt, but is struggling (by his standards) after entering tournament play with three straight double-doubles. Harrell has only grabbed 10 rebounds total in two NCAA games, while scoring just 22 total points. An increase in pace against an average Wolfpack defense could cure what ails him, although Harrell only went 1-for-5 from the field for seven points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting. F Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM/G) is the lone senior on the team and is shooting the ball with confidence from deep over his past three games (7-for-16). Given an opening, Blackshear isn’t shy (19 points on 20 shots in the first round win over UC Irvine), and he enjoyed success in the first meeting versus the Wolfpack (19 points on 7-for-10 from the field, 4-for-6 from three).
UCLA BRUINS (22-13) vs. GONZAGA BULLDOGS (34-2)
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Line: Gonzaga -8.5
UCLA and Gonzaga meet for a second time this season on Friday, but this time a spot in the Elite Eight is on the line.
UCLA has been extremely hot lately, winning six of its past seven games SU and covering in four straight. The team faced UAB last round and won 92-75 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Bruins shot 60.3% from the field in that game and also won the rebounding battle 41-26. Gonzaga, meanwhile, won its fifth straight game in an 87-68 victory over Iowa as a 6-point favorite last round. Over the past three games, the Bulldogs are averaging an outrageous 88.0 PPG. These two teams met at Pauley Pavilion on Dec. 13, 2014, when the Bulldogs won 87-74 as 7.5-point favorites. Gonzaga shot 58.5% from the floor in that game and won the rebounding battle 34-30.
The Bulldogs are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when facing the Bruins since 1997 and will look to continue that strong play in this head-to-head series on Friday. UCLA is 6-0 ATS after a game where it made 50% of its threes or better this season. It is also 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 75 or more points over the past two seasons. Gonzaga, meanwhile, is 28-14 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games since 1997. UCLA comes into this game at full strength, but Gonzaga continues to be without Josh Perkins (Jaw) indefinitely.
UCLA has really played well recently, but the team now faces a whole different animal in Gonzaga. The Bruins have been a very good team offensively this season, averaging 72.0 PPG (62nd in NCAA) on 44.1% shooting (135th in NCAA). The problem with UCLA is that it has allowed 68.0 PPG (215th in NCAA) this season. The team will need to get creative in order to find ways to stop the Bulldogs Friday. G Bryce Alford (15.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1,0 SPG) should be more than ready to play in this one. Alford is averaging 24.5 PPG in the tournament so far and has gone a ridiculous 12-for-16 from the outside in those two games. He is an excellent shooter and also knows when to get his teammates involved. The last time he faced Gonzaga, Alford had 23 points, three assists and three steals. He’ll need to play well in his matchup with Kevin Pangos in this one.
Gs Isaac Hamilton (10.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) and Norman Powell (16.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) will also need to be productive in this backcourt. Hamilton provided a huge spark against UAB last round, racking up 13 points, seven assists and four boards in 37 minutes. He had 18 points the last time he faced the Bulldogs and will need to make a similar impact Friday. Powell, meanwhile, is averaging 17.0 PPG in the tournament and knows how to attack the basket with the best of them. He had 12 points in 35 minutes against Gonzaga in their last meeting and will need to continue to drive the ball towards the rim and try to draw fouls on the Bulldogs’ monstrous frontcourt.
F Kevin Looney (11.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.3 SPG) had 14 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals the last time he faced Gonzaga. He is very long and athletic and must use that to his advantage on Friday. C Tony Parker (11.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) had a dominant performance last round, putting up 28 points, 12 boards and three blocks against UAB. He had just five points the last time he faced Gonzaga though and must find a way to avoid foul trouble against a much bigger player in Przemek Karnowski.
Gonzaga has been absolutely dominant on offense this season, putting up 79.1 PPG (10th in NCAA) on 52.4% shooting (1st in NCAA). The Bulldogs rebound the ball well (37.9 RPG, 30th in NCAA) and also are willing to share offensively (16.5 APG, 6th in NCAA). Defensively they are allowing just 61.5 PPG (50th in NCAA), but they can get careless at times and really let their opponents go off. G Kevin Pangos (11.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG) is the heart and soul of this Gonzaga team. Pangos is an unbelievable shooter (45% 3PT) and rarely turns the ball over (1.3 TOPG). He did, however, have just nine points (3-for-9 FG, 1-for-6 3PT) the last time he faced UCLA and can’t afford to do that again here.
F Kyle Wiltjer (17.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another ridiculous outside shooter (48% 3PT) for the Bulldogs. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in two tournament games so far and had 24 points the last time he faced UCLA. Wiltjer will need to stretch the floor against the Bruins. G Gary Bell Jr. (8.4 PPG) is an experienced member of this backcourt. He’s averaging 11.5 PPG in two tournament games so far and will need to come through in stretches when his team is cold. He has hit timely shots throughout the course of his career and will need to continue to do so with this much on the line. C Przemek Karnowski (10.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and F Domantas Sabonis (9.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will need to control the paint in this game. Tony Parker was hot for UCLA last round and the Bulldogs can’t let him play like that Friday. They’ll need to play well defensively and also draw fouls when they get in the paint on offense.
