Friday 3/27/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto STP 500 Preview
By Micah Roberts

We’ve all been waiting for a driver to step up and not take any more of this Kevin Harvick domination to start 2015, and surprisingly the one that has is Harvick’s teammate Kurt Busch who raced to a top-5 finish for the consecutive week since being reinstated by NASCAR after missing the first three races of the season.

Neither of those two Stewart-Haas teammates won last week at Fontana as Brad Keselowski stole one after cautions flew on two separate occasions when Busch had one lap to go before victory was his, but it’s still clear these two cars have a major edge over everyone else in the new rules package, and they don‘t seem willing to share their secret with anyone -- not even car owner/teammate Tony Stewart.

Busch finished third for the second consecutive year at Fontana, but he easily had the car to beat over the weekend. He put on a speed display during Friday and Saturday practices that not even Harvick has pulled off this season. Busch had the fastest lap in all three practice sessions as well as the fastest 10-consecutive lap average in both Saturday sessions. He also won the pole.

Harvick no longer had that huge edge we have seen from the end of last season when he won the final two races to win his first Sprint Cup to this season when he won the first two races on the West Coast swing. However, he still managed to finish ahead of Busch in second-place which is his eighth straight top-2 finish.

That is unreal in this era of NASCAR!

This week, the playing field is more even for the drivers at Martinsville. Other than the road courses, Martinsville is the most reliant upon a drivers skills where a car that may not be the fastest can out duel the top power teams just because of the driver being the equalizer. Over the past few years, we’ve seen the top Martinsville performers come from those power teams.

But last season, it was Busch who won there in the spring for his only win of the season and then Dale Earnhardt Jr. won for the first time in 30 career start on the flat half-mile paper clip layout.

Prior to those two winning, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin had combined to win 18 of the previous 22 races. That’s a lot of noise being made at each of their homes with the Grandfather clocks Martinsville gives away as its trophy.

Harvick managed to break up the party in 2011 for his only Martinsville win. Tony Stewart won for the third and final time that same season. Ryan Newman won in the spring of 2012, but then it was back to the Johnson and Gordon show for the next three events until Busch broke through last season.

Johnson and Gordon each have eight Martinsville wins and Virginian Hamlin has four, but none since 2010.

The big question this week is whether or not Harvick can maintain his second-place or better run again because Martinsville has not been his best track. Johnson and Gordon will still be favored this week, but because of what Harvick and Busch have done lately, you’ll get favorable prices on either Gordon or Johnson. Because Hamlin has been off his game on his favorite track of late, he’ll also fetch higher odds than usual.

Two drivers you might able to go out on limb with this week is Stewart or Newman and each will be getting higher than 30/1 odds. Stewart should have his best run of the season. But I’m sticking with the meat and potatoes here.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
4) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (12/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Warriors (58-13) at Grizzlies (50-22)

Date: March 27, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

(AP) - It has been a season full of firsts and fun for the Golden State Warriors, rewriting the franchise record book and rediscovering what it means to be a winner.

A few milestones still remain - one for the season, and one for all time.

Both can be reached Friday night when the Warriors (58-13) visit Memphis (50-22) in a matchup of the Western Conference's top teams. The Grizzlies are the only team Golden State has not beaten this season, and right now they're standing in the Warriors' way of matching the franchise record for wins.

'It's an important game because this is a team that you'll possibly see in the Western Conference playoffs or finals or whatever it will be,' Warriors forward Draymond Green said following Thursday's practice in Oakland. 'It's definitely an important game. You definitely want to try to send a message. You also want to feel good about yourselves and continue to play well, most importantly.'

The Warriors are 8 1/2 games ahead of the Grizzlies in the West and four games up on East-leading Atlanta. The Warriors also own the tiebreaker (record vs. opposite conference) over the Hawks should they finish with the same record.

Despite having home-court advantage throughout the playoffs nearly locked up, Golden State still has some unfinished business.

The Grizzlies beat the Warriors 105-98 on Dec. 16 in Memphis, the only meeting between the teams this season. That victory snapped Golden State's franchise-record 16-game winning streak.

The Warriors believe they're a far better team now.

Center Andrew Bogut - the defensive stopper down low and an integral part of the interior passing game - and reserve forward David Lee sat out the first meeting with injuries. The offense has made major strides under new coach Steve Kerr since, most notably assists going up and turnovers going down.

'It'll be a completely different look,' Green said.

The Warriors, as has been the case against most teams since surging to the top of the standings early this season, are expecting Memphis' best shot.

The Grizzlies are coming off their most lopsided home loss of the season - a 111-89 defeat by LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday - and trying to hold off Houston for the West's No. 2 seed.

"It makes you have a sickness in your stomach because you know that you are better than that," said power forward Zach Randolph, limited to a season-low five points along with three rebounds. "It's the NBA, so it's a good thing because you always have a game the next day. You have to prepare - it's tough."

Memphis always presents problems for the Warriors anyway, with center Marc Gasol and Randolph anchoring a wave of physicality inside.

The Grizzlies have won 12 of the last 14 against Golden State.

'You always want to go into these games and, not so much send a message, but make sure they know they're going to get a fight the same way we know they're going to fight us,' Bogut said. 'We like these environments. They're good tests for us. But I'll say this now, if we win or lose: If we win, we haven't won a championship. If we lose, we haven't lost a championship.'

Whether they equal the achievement in Memphis, the Warriors are set to shatter the franchise record of 59 wins set in 1975-76 - the year after they won their only Bay Area championship. It also was the last time the Warriors won the Pacific Division, which they clinched this season in Tuesday's win at Portland.

There already was a fresh division title banner hanging in Golden State's practice facility Thursday. Of course, the Warriors have been racking up so many accolades this season that almost nobody seems to notice they're on the cusp of reaching another franchise mark Friday night.

'I haven't thought about it,' Kerr said. 'It's been a great season. We're having so much fun. You just look forward to coming to work every day and hanging out together and getting some physical work in and watching tape and trying to get better. If a milestone comes, we'll take a moment to enjoy it and do the same thing the next day.'

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Game of the Day: Warriors at Grizzlies

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies (+3.5, 198.5)

The Golden State Warriors are breaking franchise records and running away with the Western Conference. The Warriors will try to set the franchise record for road wins in a season when they visit the second-place Memphis Grizzlies on Friday. Golden State is under no real threat from the Grizzlies, who sit 8 1/2 games back in the West, and clinched the Pacific Division title on Tuesday by starting the four-game road trip off with a 122-108 win at Portland.

The Grizzlies are coming off a 111-89 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday that marked their worst home loss of the season. Memphis tends to control the interior with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph but was beaten up on the glass and could not get anything going on the perimeter in the loss. While the Warriors have all but wrapped up the No. 1 spot, the Grizzlies have played their way into a battle for the No. 2 spot and lead the Houston Rockets by 1 1/2 games.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CSN Bay Area (Golden State), SportSouth (Memphis)

LINE HISTORY: Vegas opened the Grizzlies +3 before quickly moving them to +3.5. Books opened the total anywhere from 198 to 199.

INJURY REPORT: Warriors – Shaun Livingston (Ques-Hand) Grizzlies – N/A

POWER RANKINGS: Warriors (-15.7) + Grizzlies (-8.9) + Homecourt (-3) = Grizzlies +3.8

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: “Memphis put up a very disappointing performance on Wednesday night. The Grizzlies got blown out by 22 points (111-89) on their home court by Cleveland. It was Memphis’ worst home loss since 2013, and off that poor effort, look for a strong bounce back game from the Grizzlies. The presence of Golden State should ensure that, however the Warriors are red hot as they come into this game on a 7-game winning streak while going 6-1 ATS in those games. The line value is certainly on Memphis in this game, but betting against Golden State is tough since they are 42-28-1 ATS in all games this season.” – Steve Merril

ABOUT THE WARRIORS (58-13 SU, 42-28-1 ATS, 34-37 O/U): Golden State took some time to acknowledge its first Pacific Division title since 1976 while pointing toward bigger goals. “Obviously, we all know the main goal, but it takes baby steps,” forward Draymond Green told reporters. “You reach certain milestones to get to the main goal, and this is one of them. … The goal is still the goal, so the focus must remain the same.” The Warriors have won seven straight and turned close games into routs by dominating the third quarter in the last two contests.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (50-22 SU, 34-36-2 ATS, 32-38-2 O/U): Memphis began a string of three straight games against title contenders with the loss to the Cavaliers and is hoping to put the bad performance behind it quickly. “It makes you have a sickness in your stomach because you know that you are better than that,” Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph told reporters. “It’s the NBA, so it’s a good thing because you always have a game the next day. You have to prepare – it’s tough.” Randolph, who had 17 points and 10 rebounds in a 105-98 home win over the Warriors on Dec. 16, was held to five points on 2-of-8 shooting by Cleveland.

TRENDS:

*Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
*Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
*Over is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 vs. Western Conference.
*Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 vs. NBA Pacific

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kyle Lowry, Toronto - Out Fri

Lowry is dealing with back spasms and did not play Wednesday. He is expected to miss Friday's game against the Lakers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wizards offense on-fire on on home court
Justin Hartling

The Washington Wizards have given their fans excitement on home court as of late, with huge offensive numbers leading to five-straight overs in the Verizon Center.

In the Wiz's past five at home they have averaged 105 points per game, which is nearly seven more points than their season average as a whole.

John Wall has gone a long way to helping this torrid pace, as the point guard has tallied 20-plus points in four of those five contests while averaging 22.6 ppg.

Washington hosts the Charlotte Hornets Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Knicks continue to get trounced, failing to cover
Justin Hartling

The New York Knicks have been on a embarrassing five game losing streak that has seen them getting beaten by a wide margin routinely. The Knicks have lost their past five games by an average of 19.5 points per game, which has seen them fail to cover in each.

These large loses have much to do with a Knicks offense that has been averaging a mere 84.8 points in their past five, with the team only hitting the 90-point mark once.

New York welcomes the Boston Celtics to Madison Square Garden Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Betting: Streaks, Tips, Notes

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs March 27, 08:30 EST

The San Antonio Spurs taking it on the chin Tuesday losing 101-94 as 3-point road favorites in Dallas will be out for revenge when they host state rival Mavericks on AT&T Center Friday.

San Antonio is a tough place to play, they own a very impressive 27-8 home record and with Spurs enjoying success last thirteen meetings in their own back yard (11-2) pay-back looks to be in the cards.

But, you do bet Spurs at some risk. Our stat crunching machine tells us Spurs were only 6-7 ATS in those thirteen encounters and that San Antonio has not been a good bet revenging a division loss this season cashing only once in five attempts (1-4 ATS). Further, Spurs off a 130-91 thrashing of Thunder dropping a whopping 58% of their shots also gives pause. Favorites after shooting 55% or better the previous outing are a money-burning 17-26-1 ATS including a cash draining 1-6 ATS with Spurs in the situation.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 2:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$12000 - 3 & 4 YR. OLDS FILLIES & MARES NW 1 EXT. PM RACES LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 LADYLAND 8/5


# 3 WIZE UP 4/1


# 7 SKATEBOARD CHIC 4/1


Look no further than LADYLAND as the play here. This interesting entrant looks very good. Take a good look at the 70 avg TrackMaster Speed Rating. Clearly the class of the group of horses with an average rating of 69. A nice selection. If effort in the most recent affair is representative, this fine animal will have a very competitive shot for this one. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. WIZE UP - She has competitive class rankings, averaging 69. Should be considered for a bet here. Could most likely defeat this bunch given the 62 speed rating recorded in her last race. SKATEBOARD CHIC - Might be there at a reasonable price tag. More than likely one to keep in your exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 9:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$6325 - NON-WINNERS $3,500 LAST 5 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 MY FUTURE EX 2/1


# 8 V I P 9/2


# 4 MERLINCREST 6/1


MY FUTURE EX is tough to overlook as our best wagering option in this gathering. May provide us a victory based on formidable recent TrackMaster Speed Ratings - earning an average of 87. Has a sharp shot here, if he can perform to his back class. With a really strong 86 TrackMaster Speed Rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this contest. V I P - Excellent win rate combined with recent great performances. We think he can handle this group. Aldrich is racking up the wins lately. Top notch win percentage makes this standardbred our play. MERLINCREST - Can't overlook based on speed figs which have been great (86 avg) these days. A very nice class horse cannot be overlooked. With an average class rating of 87 all signs point to yes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 95

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 15, 2015 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 CINCO DE MARIO 7/2


# 4 PORT STANLEY 4/1


# 5 STREET SERENADE 2/1


My choice in this event is CINCO DE MARIO. Like the finishing positions in the last few events. This equine is prominent in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Sullivan will most likely have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. PORT STANLEY - Should best this field here, showing very good figures of late. Ran a strong last race. STREET SERENADE - Must be given a shot for this race if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last outing. The average class fig of 84 makes this horse tough to beat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $15500 Class Rating: 63

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR MAIDEN, TWO YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 FIT TO TAC 5/1


# 5 BP VALIANT POLICY 3/1


# 7 GENUWIN DIAMOND 6/1


FIT TO TAC is the top wager in this race. Cannot be ignored - Willis is a strong handler with the babies, winning 27 of his races. Must be worth a wager based on the sire's (Tac It Like a Man) offspring strong win rate - 18 percent. This gelding looks like a playable longshot. BP VALIANT POLICY - Reed has been nails with two year olds, winning at a 20 percent clip. Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. The Equibase class figure of today's contest is much lower than her last race. GENUWIN DIAMOND - One of the best win percentages between this jockey and trainer make this filly dangerous.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:24pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 TEAM TIM (ML=3/1)


TEAM TIM - Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another notice that this equine has the class to take this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BREEZED BAYOU (ML=8/5), #5 JACK O LIAM (ML=9/5),

BREEZED BAYOU - When looking at today's class rating, he will have to earn a better speed rating than last out to vie in this dirt route. JACK O LIAM - He showed not much at all in the last event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 TEAM TIM is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #7 - Post: 4:02pm - Optional Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 OFF THE DEEP END (ML=5/2)


OFF THE DEEP END - I think that this shorter distance should help this gelding. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 100.4. Very impressive.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HEAD SOUTH (ML=2/1), #2 BRANDO THE BIRDMAN (ML=4/1), #5 GO FIRST (ML=6/1),

HEAD SOUTH - Not likely that the speed rating he registered on Mar 1st will be good enough in this event. BRANDO THE BIRDMAN - This gelding hasn't had any positive outcomes in short distance events in the last couple months. This horse hasn't shown much life in the last couple affairs. GO FIRST - A bit of a lackluster performance when this gelding finished fifth.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #6 OFF THE DEEP END to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
None

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 2:18 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES OPTIONAL CLAIMING $57,000.00 PURSE

#3 SONORA
#2 BAR OF GOLD
#4 AWESOME NEWS
#1 SONG BROOK

#3 SONORA takes a class drop (-3), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in two of her three career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back. #2 BAR OF GOLD, the morning line favorite, is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking." I downgraded her a "notch" on my contender's list since that race was some 224 days ago. Jockey Junior Alvarado was in her irons for that win back in August at Saratoga, which produced a +280% profit in the process, and is here in Ozone Park this afternoon for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips!"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

In addition to the big Derby preps coming up on Saturday, there is this little race called the Dubai World Cup (G1), the world’s richest race with a $10 million purse, which will be the marquee event at Meydan Racecourse, with eight other races and $30 million in purses up for grabs in total.

The second race on the card is the first betting race and goes off at 8:40 ET with the Dubai World Cup slated to go off at 1:00 ET. The race will be televised as part of the Jockey Club Tour on Fox, the one hour telecast getting underway at 12:30 ET.

The headliner is 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, who is the 8-5 morning line favorite. The colt ran second to Shared Belief in his last outing in the San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita on Feb. 7.

Also representing the U.S. is the Bill Mott trained Lea, who is the 5-2 second choice on the morning line. The six-year-old ran second in the Donn Handicap (G1) in his last outing.

Defending champion African Story (6-1) is back and Japan sends a strong duo of Hokko Tarumae (8-1) and Epiphaneia (12-1).

There was a buzz on social media yesterday regarding the takeout rates for the races from Meydan. The takeout on win, place and show bets is 20% and exotic bets are at a 27% clip.

That is incredibly high, so if you plan on wagering on the Dubai card, check with your online racebook and make sure you are being offered rebates to offset at least some of this ridiculous takeout rate.


Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500N3L (1:20 ET)
1 Mr. Lit 5-2
5 Tapin Mojo 6-5
3 Chrisandlorisposse 5-1
6 Can't Catch Me Now 12-1

Analysis: Mr. Lit tracked the early pace from the outside and weakened to finish fifth last out at this level. The gelding beat $12,500 non-winners of two in his previous outing over a muddy inner track. The gelding draws the rail here and should be sitting just off the pace here with a ground saving trip. The Nevin barn has been live at the meet, hitting at a 28% clip.

Tapin Mojo has handled off tracks nicely in his last two starts, breaking his maiden two back by 15 1/4 lengths and last out beating non-winners of two by a nose. The colt could regress off back-to-back career tops but this is not a real tough group as he steps up a notch here.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6
TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,6 / 1,3,5,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 OClm $62,500N2X (4:48 ET)
7 Integrity 5-1
2 Effinex 6-1
1 Coach Inge 4-1
6 Coltimus Prime 5-2

Analysis: Integrity stretches back out to a route here after a fourth place finish last out at Philly against non-conditioned allowance foes. He adds blinkers as he makes his first start here for the RRod barn that is back from his forced vacation and hits at a 30% clip with newcomers to the barn. He did beat Alw-3 optional claimers going a two-turn mile at Philly last year. This looks like a good spot and we should get a fair price.

Effinex returns off nearly a three month break here for the Jerkens barn. The colt was last seen checking in fourth in the state bred Alex Robb, making a mild late run to finish 2 1/2 lengths behind the winner. The colt as good enough to win the state bred Empire classic last October at Belmont Park going nine furlongs and he does have a pair of wins on the inner track.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #6 Can’t Catch Me Now 12-1
R3: #5 Majestic Jessica 10-1
R6: #8 Cats Landing 8-1
R7: #2 Scattered Dreams 10-1
R9: #1 No More Strippers 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 3/27 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 5 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

2,4/1,9,10/5/2,3,6,8 = $24

MEET STATS: 116 - 363 / $624.40 BEST BETS: 16 - 35 / $88.00

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 34 / $59.20

Best Bet: MISTRESSTOTHESTARS (6th)

Spot Play: GIVE ME AN AMEN (9th)


Race 1

The owner of (4) I AM SPECIAL hands the training duties over to leading trainer Moreau here which has been a deadly angle all meet long; top call. (1) LOVE DETECTIVE drops out of a quick mile in a stakes series which means he will get bet and likely add value to the choice. (6) FASHION GODDESS couldn't get close to the white-hot Tarot last out but fits here for a barn that is going well right now.

Race 2

(5) MYSTIQUE BEACH BUM came to life last week with a powerful late move to win and likely gets a very good pace scenario to set up a similar result here. (4) AFTER ALIMONY dropped into a claimer and disappointed but was claimed by Moreau; she's dangerous. (7) LARJON LAURA was also claimed out of a big win but that was a terrible field. These are much tougher.

Race 3

(2) MUSICAL SPELL left more alertly last time and charged up late for 2nd. He can take this group with an alert start. (3) ETRUSCAN HANOVER is one with both talent and issues; hard to love, tough to toss. (1) JUSTCALLMERONALD self-destructed early last time but he's a factor here if he stays flat.

Race 4

Several drop from higher classes in this crapshoot. Of those, we'll call (4) WANNA ROCK N ROLL on top. She has improved her late speed dramatically the past two weeks. (2) DAZZLE N DELIGHT stayed in last time but had pace to offer in a rapid final 1/4. She could trip out in this dash. (9) MURRAYFILED is in top form and will be charging late for a share.

Race 5

(1) BAD BAD BOY has faced much better the past three and should go much better in his first start vs. claimers; top call. (10) WOGGY ROCKS capitalized off a great trip to register a lifetime-best win. Top contender but post 10 makes things tougher. (9) DECISIVE DESTINY made several moves from the 10-hole in his first start off the claim then faded late. He can contend here with an easier trip.

Race 6

(5) MISTRESSTOTHESTARS moves into the Menary barn and sports a rapid qualifying win; top call at a likely short price. (6) ADDISON BAY was close behind classy Anderlecht twice in open company at Rideau. She should be a top player here. (8) BOAT HOUSE ROW got stalled behind dead cover last out but closed well in the lane; contender.

Race 7

(3) BADLANDS LOVE left hard from the 10-hole and was only beaten late in a quick mile. She gets the call here with the move inside. (8) ARTISTIC MADISON won comfortably but was DQ'ed for interfering at the 3/4. She is speedy but often looks unsound; contender nonetheless. (2) KISS ME OR NOT was inexplicably rated off a slow early 1/4 last out. Speed is her best game; expect to see it here.

Race 8

(4) YOUR MY SECRET stayed off the early pace and came with a powerful first-up move to record a life's best win. Call to repeat. (1) PINOT GRIGIO was out the route and couldn't keep pace with the choice late. The move inside gives her a much better chance to be closer. (6) ONYOURMARKNATAVA should be coming with her typical late rush for a share.

Race 9

(7) GIVE ME AN AMEN finished full of pace last week now steps into the top class. Call to upset. (3) MARQUISE DE SARAH hasn't won yet in March but was Queen Bee all winter in this class and is always dangerous. (1) HOPE FOR PADDY has hit her best stride now and has beaten most of these before; beware.

Race 10

(7) OCEANVIEW BINDI moved into this class last week and vaulted off cover to win easily. She's in top form and can take another here. (8) ST LADS PENNY LANE surprised everyone by reversing tactics and blasting to the top last time to lead throughout. She steps up but is obviously sharp. (3) MACHYNBYRD PRINCESS followed the choice home last time but couldn't get close. She should share here. (2) A REAL COMMITMENT blasted home to win in a much-improved effort. She can better this placing. (10) ONE LAST BONO hasn't missed the board all year but has her work cut out vs. these from out there.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 3/27 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 134 - 522 / $728.50 BEST BETS: 18 - 43 / $68.60

Best Bet: HANDOVER BELLE (7th)

Spot Play: MATTIE TERROR GIRL (9th)


Race 1

(1) BIG BANG HANOVER tucked, brushed and stopped badly last week while battling the elements in what looked like a blizzard a first glance. His prior effort was fine and the price should improve now. (3) STONEHAM is another who was part of the pace on that bad-weather night. Don’t be shocked if he shows more now; Lasix added. (7) FERRAGAMO comes off a decent placing against similar. (5) MUSCULARITY finally stayed flat last time and the result was a win.

Race 2

(3) WHATNBLAZES is an honest horse that knows how to pick of the pieces when the race falls into his lap. With the possibility of a fair amount of outside speed from (7) POUNCE HANOVER, who wired many of these last week, and (6) MR RIDGETAKER, who moves into a decent win percentage barn, this race could fall into David Offenberg’s hands with Whatnblazes. (5) FALCOR BLUESTONE was a bit flat when he needed his best last time, but I can certainly seeing him winning with modest improvement.

Race 3

(4) OUTBURST has gone a bit sour facing more seasoned foes. Four-year-old gets some class relief tonight and should perk up. (3) STRUCK BY LINDY comes out of the same race as the top choice and performed much better; must use. (2) HELIOS is also back down in class and looms a trip threat.

Race 4

(6) PERMANENT JOY came up with a good mile a week ago to finish second behind a much-the-best winner. If he minds his manners during the mile, he should be very tough to beat. (2) CURVATURE HANOVER has three wins in her last five starts and should be forwardly placed. (8) CELEBRITY STIMULUS sports some early speed and a nice 1:55 2/5 win here last year.

Race 5

(3) SWEET JUSTICE didn’t show very much while completely uninvolved last week, but it was a post 10 start. He moves down to the (near) basement condition and has no excuses. (5) MUSCOLO returned from winter break with a good attempt and should be involved again. (7) HOME TURF arrives on the scene for Burke/Gingras; respect.

Race 6

(1) SCANDALICIOUS can’t seem to buy a good trip lately. She lucks-out into a field without much early speed and may have the option of making a quick early brush. (5) ADDYS WAY has been very consistent and was second in this class last time. (6) TWIN B ELITE hasn’t started in a month but has only missed the board once in six starts this year; mixed feelings.

Race 7

(3) HANDOVER BELLE raced steadily in her 2015 debut but visually appeared like she would be ready for more with that race under her belt. She can be a major player in the older trotting mare division this year. (8) ODDS ON AMETHYST has been first or second in four of five starts this year; must use. (1) APPOMATTOX comes off a nice win but tackles tougher and loses Gingras.

Race 8

(7) BALLINEEN rallied off cover to win two of her last three starts at this level. She is far from a lock in here, but seems worth a play if the odds drift to about 5-2. (1) SMOKIN N GRININ comes off a game effort and seems to be rounding into form. (9) JANIE BAY turned things around last time and has been known to go a big mile now and then. (4) CRAZY ON YOU made a nice bid before weakening a week ago and could be a player with smoother sailing.

Race 9

(7) MATTIE TERROR GIRL put in an even mile in her first start since December while facing much better than tonight’s competition. All systems should be on go now. (1) PAN LUIS OBISPO, (2) DREAM’S BAR, (9) WESTERN EMPRESS, (4) BLACK MAGIC EYES and (3) TREVOR’S BEBE would all appear to be in with an even shot if the top ones fails to bring her best game.

Race 10

(3) STITCH IN TIME actually starts in consecutive weeks for the first time this year. Gelding finished up okay last time out and faces an easier group tonight. (9) FOX VALLEY LEGEND is clearly the one to beat and only needs a reasonable trip to score; using on every ticket. (1) LOOKING HANOVER reunites with co-owner Yannick Gingras and should get a share.

Race 11

(7) DREAMS OF THUNDER returns from a two month break with an even qualifier and a decent run of past success here. With no standouts in this group he seems worth a shot. (6) IN NOMINE PATRI drops way down in class and really should bring a good effort. (4) WORTH THE MONEY AS should be along for his usual decent check.

Race 12

(5) DETROIT RAPPER should cruise down the road at even money or so. (6) KEYSTONE BOCA can go with the top one on her best day. (7) AGGRESSIVE hasn’t raced in three weeks and comes off a scratched-sick line; chance if feeling good.

Race 13

(8) NO LIES ships in with form for a barn that has performed well here this year. With Yannick signed on to drive, I’ll take a shot. (10) LIGHTNING PAIGE gets tons of class relief and can fire off the gate; big chance. (9) THE SUMMER WIND would be the likely favorite from an inside post and could still take enough money to be a lukewarm choice. (1) CANDY STYX N should save ground and get into the exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 3/27 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 40 - 250 / $322.10 BEST BETS: 3 - 21 / $14.10

Best Bet: SIX BAX (2nd)

Spot Play: MARATHON DAY (5th)


Race 1

(6) MYSTICAL VALENTINE had a good trip last out but flattened. He is very capable of getting back to his winning ways. (2) JETTY flashed good early zip in his recent outing. (3) STONEBRIDGE COWBOY fits well with these; not out of this.

Race 2

(1) SIX BAX Tough break in his latest. Trotter can top these down the road. (8) WISENHEIMER Meadowlands invader got the job done in his last try. (3) ELIN gets post relief and that could help her cause.

Race 3

(4) GRANDPA DON makes his return to Yonkers where he has done his best running. Can take this with a golden trip. (3) DIAMONDKEEPER has hit the board in his last four starts. (5) FOX VALLEY DEUCE could be a factor in here.

Race 4

(1) AUTOMATIC SLIMS 9-year-old is clearly knocking at the door and retains the fence; gets the call. (5) IM THE REAL MAJOR has scored in his last two trips to the post. (2) REPORT FOR DUTY N should be right there from the 2-hole.

Race 5

(7) MARATHON DAY took the pocket route home for all the glory last out. Pacer has every right to make it two straight. (1) CHERRY BLISS rallied strongly for the victory recently. (4) DELIGHTFUL DRAGON Jersey invader can be right in the mix.

Race 6

(2) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL Pacing miss has fine speed and with a relaxing trip, she can get back into the winner's circle. (1) CAROLSIDEAL was sent down the road last time out for all the marbles. (3) SAYITALL BB moves inside and that should put this gal in the hunt.

Race 7

(3) FOR THE LADIES N This should be a better spot for this gal to make tonight a winning one; the trip will be everything. (6) KRISPY APPLE just got up to nail down the score last week. (1) CAMILLE is knocking at the door; watch out.

Race 8

(7) DEWYCOLORINTHELINE Trotter is quite speedy and he can boss these down the road. (2) ALTERNAT THURSDAYS was nailed for win honors last time out. (5) ONE MORE KID was third best in his latest.

Race 9

(2) TWIN B HOLLISTER Quite sharp in his last three starts and this guy can put his best foot forward. (1) KIWI IDEAL N With a good trip, this guy can get involved. (6) SANTANNA ONE could land a share of the purse.

Race 10

(1) BEAUTIFUL LADY Meadowlands shipper tired in the stretch drive but the good news is she has the fence and could take these wire to wire. (3) FANTICIPATION gets class and post relief; threat. (5) MAGIC STARLIGHT can be right there with a good trip.

Race 11

(1) ROBIN CRUISER was nailed for win honors last out but she gets a cozy slot to work with; ready for action. (2) ROCK N LOAD has put in two good efforts; main danger. (4) BAZOOKA TERROR just got up for all the glory in her latest.

Race 12

(3) ALBERTO CONTADOR N Quite sharp in his last two starts. Gelding is capable of getting the job done against these. (2) SHORTSTACKED should fare well from the two slot. (5) ROCKIN WIZARD has good early zip; don't count out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Born to Be Mild, 4-1
(6th) Rich Dalone, 3-1

Charles Town (1st) Isabella's Boy, 3-1
(5th) Street Parade, 7-2

Fair Grounds (7th) Mr. Shad, 9-2
(10th) Candy Cate, 3-1

Golden Gate Fields (1st) Halo Indygo, 3-1
(5th) Cinco de Mario, 7-2


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Cotton Eyed Josie, 3-1
(7th) I Feel Great, 3-1


Hawthorne (1st) Tutur Stein, 7-2
(3rd) Mightylee, 6-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Better Way, 7-2
(4th) Take Down Two, 9-2


Oaklawn Park (6th) Moroccan Brew, 3-1
(9th) Five One Five Oh, 7-2


Penn National (2nd) Make a Splash, 4-1
(5th) For Scipion, 7-2


Santa Anita (3rd) Book Thirty Four, 3-1
(8th) Currency Exchange, 7-2


Tampa Bay Downs (5th) Crazy Legs Four, 6-1
(6th) Alex the Terror, 3-1


Turfway Park (4th) Silver Summation, 3-1
(5th) Alone Again, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

The NCAA College Basketball March Madness continues March 26, 2015 with Sweet Sixteen action. Below you are betting nuggets which hopefully helps when making your selections. As always best of luck, but above all enjoy the games.

Sweet Sixteen: All stats from 2002-03 season unless noted

Favorites in the Sweet Sixteen have not been the best choice as they're 39-46-3 ATS since 2002-03.
-3.5 or less Favorite 12-13-1 ATS
-4.5 to -6.5 Favorite 12-20-2 ATS
-7 to -9.5 Favorite 11-7 ATS
Double Digit Chalk 4-6 ATS

#1 vs #5: Top seed has owned this matchup posting an 11-3 SU record. Against the betting line #1's are just 5-8-1 ATS, 3-7 ATS since 2004-05. The O/U since 2002-03 is 6-7-1

#1 Duke vs #5 Utah
Duke 3-5 SU/ATS
Duke 2-3 SU/ATS as #1 seed
Utah 0-1 SU/ATS

#2 vs #11: All #2 in this seed matchup. 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS with the 'Under' a strong 3-1

#2 Gonzaga vs #11 UCLA
Gonzaga 0-2 (1-1 ATS)
Gonzaga lost vs UCLA in '06 S16
UCLA 3-1 (1-3 ATS)

#3 vs #7: Flip a coin when #3 faces a #7 as it's a dead even 3-3 SU/ATS. The 'Over' as a 4-2 edge

#3 Oklahoma vs #7 Michigan State
Oklahoma 2-0 SU/ATS
Michigan State 5-3 (4-4 ATS)

#4 vs #8: Only two matchups the past twelve NCAA Tourney's with the #8 seed winning and covering both. #8 Butler beat #5 Wisky in 2011 and #8 Kentucky defeated/covered vs #4 Louisville last year.

#4 Louisville vs #8 NC State
Louisville 5-1 (4-2 ATS)
Louisville 2-1 SU/ATS as #4 seed
N.C. State 0-2 (1-1 ATS)