Matt Fagro
8* NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *23-14 RUN*
Philadelphia at Golden State
Play: Philadelphia -1
As expected, the Sixers put up a dud against Phoenix the night after defeating the Lakers on a last second three-pointer. I had no interest in grabbing the points against the Suns and also had no interest in putting down seven points on Phoenix despite the probably letdown effect. Philadelphia has how had a day to regroup and we will see a fully focused team tonight. The New Year started slow for Philadelphia with consecutive losses to Dallas and San Antonio but on January 6th, the Sixers started to get things rolling. A seven-game winning streak ensued and since then, they have gone a solid 21-11 to completely turn around what was thought to have been a lost season. The loss of Elton Brand was thought to be devastating at the time but Philadelphia has been more than fine. In the 29 games he played this season, the Sixers went 13-16. In the 37 games he has been absent, they have gone 21-16. It may be coincidental or that other players step up in but either way, this is a team to be on the look out for as there is some great balance and team chemistry working right now. The Sixers are far from out of the woods however as they are currently sitting in the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference but are just five games away from falling into ninth place because of that horrible start that cost head coach Maurice Cheeks his job. They are a game and a half behind Miami for the fifth spot and that is a coveted slot right now as the first round matchup will be Atlanta as opposed to facing either Boston or Orlando is the opening round of the playoffs. Letdowns seem to be common place following games against Los Angeles and tonight, the shoe goes on the other foot. Golden St. is coming off a game last night against the Lakers and even though it lost, it was a close game throughout and the Warriors put in a big effort against their division rivals. The Warriors have been playing better as they have won three of their last four games at home but two of those came against the Clippers and Nets so I am not sold on how strong their home court is currently looking. Philadelphia is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games coming off a road loss. When playing on no rest or extended rest of three or more days, the Sixers are 7-18 ATS but everything in-between has been fine, going 23-15-3 ATS when playing on one or two days of rest. 8* Philadelphia 76ers
8* NBA SUPREME ANNIHILATOR *23-14 RUN*
Philadelphia at Golden State
Play: Philadelphia -1
As expected, the Sixers put up a dud against Phoenix the night after defeating the Lakers on a last second three-pointer. I had no interest in grabbing the points against the Suns and also had no interest in putting down seven points on Phoenix despite the probably letdown effect. Philadelphia has how had a day to regroup and we will see a fully focused team tonight. The New Year started slow for Philadelphia with consecutive losses to Dallas and San Antonio but on January 6th, the Sixers started to get things rolling. A seven-game winning streak ensued and since then, they have gone a solid 21-11 to completely turn around what was thought to have been a lost season. The loss of Elton Brand was thought to be devastating at the time but Philadelphia has been more than fine. In the 29 games he played this season, the Sixers went 13-16. In the 37 games he has been absent, they have gone 21-16. It may be coincidental or that other players step up in but either way, this is a team to be on the look out for as there is some great balance and team chemistry working right now. The Sixers are far from out of the woods however as they are currently sitting in the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference but are just five games away from falling into ninth place because of that horrible start that cost head coach Maurice Cheeks his job. They are a game and a half behind Miami for the fifth spot and that is a coveted slot right now as the first round matchup will be Atlanta as opposed to facing either Boston or Orlando is the opening round of the playoffs. Letdowns seem to be common place following games against Los Angeles and tonight, the shoe goes on the other foot. Golden St. is coming off a game last night against the Lakers and even though it lost, it was a close game throughout and the Warriors put in a big effort against their division rivals. The Warriors have been playing better as they have won three of their last four games at home but two of those came against the Clippers and Nets so I am not sold on how strong their home court is currently looking. Philadelphia is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 road games coming off a road loss. When playing on no rest or extended rest of three or more days, the Sixers are 7-18 ATS but everything in-between has been fine, going 23-15-3 ATS when playing on one or two days of rest. 8* Philadelphia 76ers
Al
At 3 pm, our 1st Round Shocker of the Year is on the Cornell Big Red plus the points over Missouri, as Cornell falls into 29-1, 33-13, 35-7, and 59-22 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 33-13 ATS angle. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (now, currently 65 teams) the worst-seeded teams' performances have correlated with whether their foe was off a win or loss to end the regular season. For purposes of our study, we'll discard the #1 vs. #16 games, as a #1 team has never lost SU to a #16 seed (and probably never will), since those games aren't very competitive. So, we'll just look at the teams seeded #13, #14, and #15. If the higher ranked team checked in off a win (as Missouri does today), then our lesser teams have excelled against the spread, but if our higher-ranked teams happened to lose their final regular season game, they've tended to snap back with a decent performance in Round 1. Indeed, if we look at the data going back to 1991, we find that teams seeded #13, #14 and #15 are a solid 33-13 ATS vs. a foe off a win, provided our 13-15 seeded team is also off a win. This is a great letdown spot for Missouri after it won the Big 12 Conference championship. That was the first time the Tigers won a post-season tournament since Norm Stewart's men won the Big Eight Tourney in 1993. So, even though today's game means a lot, we've seen throughout the years that teams -- especially those that were not favored to win their conference tourney from the outset (Missouri finished 3rd in the Big 12 Conference's regular season) -- do have letdowns in the opening round of the Tournament. I expect big things from Missouri later on (and wouldn't be surprised if it makes the Final Four), but just not today. NCAA 1st Round Shocker of the Year on Cornell. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 3 pm, our 1st Round Shocker of the Year is on the Cornell Big Red plus the points over Missouri, as Cornell falls into 29-1, 33-13, 35-7, and 59-22 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 33-13 ATS angle. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (now, currently 65 teams) the worst-seeded teams' performances have correlated with whether their foe was off a win or loss to end the regular season. For purposes of our study, we'll discard the #1 vs. #16 games, as a #1 team has never lost SU to a #16 seed (and probably never will), since those games aren't very competitive. So, we'll just look at the teams seeded #13, #14, and #15. If the higher ranked team checked in off a win (as Missouri does today), then our lesser teams have excelled against the spread, but if our higher-ranked teams happened to lose their final regular season game, they've tended to snap back with a decent performance in Round 1. Indeed, if we look at the data going back to 1991, we find that teams seeded #13, #14 and #15 are a solid 33-13 ATS vs. a foe off a win, provided our 13-15 seeded team is also off a win. This is a great letdown spot for Missouri after it won the Big 12 Conference championship. That was the first time the Tigers won a post-season tournament since Norm Stewart's men won the Big Eight Tourney in 1993. So, even though today's game means a lot, we've seen throughout the years that teams -- especially those that were not favored to win their conference tourney from the outset (Missouri finished 3rd in the Big 12 Conference's regular season) -- do have letdowns in the opening round of the Tournament. I expect big things from Missouri later on (and wouldn't be surprised if it makes the Final Four), but just not today. NCAA 1st Round Shocker of the Year on Cornell. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
Al DeMarco
Friday's Pick
10 Dime - Temple
If you consulted my brackets, you saw I thought there were only a couple of legitimate first-round upsets by lower seeds: Western Kentucky, who upset Illinois as forecasted on Thursday, plus Temple and Arizona (who I used as a free pick today).
The Owls closed the season strong, winning 10 of their last 12, going 9-3 ATS. They carry a five-game winning streak both on the floor and versus the oddsmakers into this first-round game. Last year, as a 12 seed, many thought Temple had a chance to make a little noise, but it was bounced immediately from the tournament by Michigan State. That experience will pay dividends today.
Arizona State is not a physical team with 6-9 center Jeff Pendegraph providing its lone interior presence. Temple, conversely, can hammer foes down low and hit the boards hard with a deep rotation led by 7-1 Sergio Olmos and 6-9 Lavoy Allen, both of whom have played exceptional ball down the stretch.
The Sun Devils and Owls each have strong scorers in James Harden (20.8 ppg) and Dionte Christmas (19.8 ppg), respectively. While Harden is the better all-around player, he will be facing a Temple defense holding foes to 40 percent shooing from the field. Christmas must contend with Arizona State's matchup zone defense, which is different than the one former Temple coach John Chaney employed so successfully for years, but it is similar to that used by fellow Atlantic-10 member Richmond. Christmas broke out of a recent shooting slump by pumping in 29 points in the A-10 title game against Duquesne and 20 versus Xavier in the semifinals.
In last year's tournament, Temple had to travel across two time zones; this year it's Arizona State making the long distance journey from Tempe to Miami. And while the Owls have the 2008 Big Dance experience under their belts, this marks the Sun Devils first postseason outing in six years.
Friday's Pick
10 Dime - Temple
If you consulted my brackets, you saw I thought there were only a couple of legitimate first-round upsets by lower seeds: Western Kentucky, who upset Illinois as forecasted on Thursday, plus Temple and Arizona (who I used as a free pick today).
The Owls closed the season strong, winning 10 of their last 12, going 9-3 ATS. They carry a five-game winning streak both on the floor and versus the oddsmakers into this first-round game. Last year, as a 12 seed, many thought Temple had a chance to make a little noise, but it was bounced immediately from the tournament by Michigan State. That experience will pay dividends today.
Arizona State is not a physical team with 6-9 center Jeff Pendegraph providing its lone interior presence. Temple, conversely, can hammer foes down low and hit the boards hard with a deep rotation led by 7-1 Sergio Olmos and 6-9 Lavoy Allen, both of whom have played exceptional ball down the stretch.
The Sun Devils and Owls each have strong scorers in James Harden (20.8 ppg) and Dionte Christmas (19.8 ppg), respectively. While Harden is the better all-around player, he will be facing a Temple defense holding foes to 40 percent shooing from the field. Christmas must contend with Arizona State's matchup zone defense, which is different than the one former Temple coach John Chaney employed so successfully for years, but it is similar to that used by fellow Atlantic-10 member Richmond. Christmas broke out of a recent shooting slump by pumping in 29 points in the A-10 title game against Duquesne and 20 versus Xavier in the semifinals.
In last year's tournament, Temple had to travel across two time zones; this year it's Arizona State making the long distance journey from Tempe to Miami. And while the Owls have the 2008 Big Dance experience under their belts, this marks the Sun Devils first postseason outing in six years.
