Ferrringo
6-Unit Play. Take #850 Marquette (-4.5) over Utah State (12:30 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Note: This is my Game of the Month.
This play is all about value and all about going against the public. And I don't know about now, but that's what March used to be all about. The Golden Eagles have been completely written off without Dominic James. However, I still see a talented and experienced core of seniors that don't want to go down without a fight. With the exception of the first half against Villanova this team played well in The Garden. And even though they have been on a savage slide, let's look at who they are losing to - Pitt, Louisville, Connecticut, Syracuse and Villanova. Has Utah State played anyone even close to the caliber of that? I don't think so. I'm a big fan of the WAC and I can say that it was the weakest this year that I've seen it in a decade. Utah State played a terrible nonconference schedule and a weak conference schedule, and the last time they stepped out to face someone they got rocked by a St. Mary's team that is in the NIT. I love the pressure that Marquette can put on the perimeter, and if McNeal and/or Matthews is on today this one could be ugly. I think that the Golden Eagles are undervalued at the moment as nearly 70 percent of the action is on the Aggies today. I'd like to see the public get humbled today and watch everyone kick themselves for missing out on this mismatch.
4-Unit Play. Take Stephen F. Austin (+12) over Syracuse (12:15 p.m., Friday, March 20)
I just think that there are a lot of reasons why this is a really sharp play and this was the first matchup that jumped out at me when I saw the lines. And not just because I'm a Syracuse fan. The dreaded noon tip in quintessential letdown spot for SU after their amazing MSG run. They are playing some "who?" team. The Orange face the No. 1 field goal defense in the country and a team whose adjusted tempo is No. 300 (of 342), which means they could grind the Orange down.
Further, the Southland Conference teams are 3-0 ATS in L3 tournaments and Syracuse (for some reason) never plays well in Florida. Everyone (in SU Nation) is already looking ahead to Arizona State, Oklahoma and North Carolina in our bracket. Makes it a “Letdown/Look Ahead" spot. Syracuse is just 22-37 ATS as a double-digit favorite dating back to 2003. There are four three-year starters on senior-laden team that has gone 50-13 over the last two years.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #830 Arizona State (-5.5) over Temple (2:45 p.m., Friday, March 20)
I'm backing James Harden and a handful of systems that suggest that the Sun Devils will overperform their seed. Playing No. 6 seeds after a loss is 26-15-1 ATS in the past several tournaments.
2-Unit Play. Take #838 Oklahoma State (+2) over Tennessee (Noon, Friday, March 20)
I'm not big into the SEC and I'm not big into teams that don't care of the ball. I konw that Oklahoma State is a turnover waiting to happen, but playing on higher seeds as underdogs has been a solid 14-7 ATS in recent years.
2-Unit Play. Take #826 Wake Forest (-8) over Cleveland State (9:40 p.m., Friday, March 20)
The same systems that were at play in the Washington winner that we rolled out yesterday are at work here. It's all about No. 4 seeds that are off an upset loss in their conference tournamand and going against dogs of 3.0 or more after an upset win of 6.0 or more in their own conference tournament. That last system alone is 43-21 ATS over the last 12 years. My initial thought was Cleveland State, a team that I like a lot. But I also thought Mississippi State would put up a fight yesterday to, so we're going to trust the system.
2-Unit Play. Take #852 Florida State (-2.5) over Wisconsin (9:55 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Yesterday we missed our ACC-over-the-Big 10 play but I think that we are going to get this one. How much gas does FSU have left in the tank after their run in Atlanta? I'm not sure, but I think they have enough to take down this Badgers team. FSU has been banging heads with top-tier ACC teams all season long and has proven itself against better competition. I love Bo Ryan. I do. But I think that after a few tourney snubs over the last two years Toney Douglas and Co. are ready to unload.
2-Unit Play. Take #833 Siena (+3) over Ohio State (9:40 p.m., Friday, March 20)
I'll take the short line on a team that was in the Sweet 16 last year. Siena was a team that was humbled earlier in the year with an overambitious schedule. Also, they just were not knocking down outside shots earlier in the season. But this is a veteran squad with a lot of options and I think that they are going to raise their game today.
2-Unit Play. Take #847 Cornell (+13) over Missouri (3 p.m., Friday, March 20)
A lot of the systems that were at work in the Memphis game yesterday are at play in this game. Basically, it's about fading teams that made strong ATS runs in their conference tournaments, teams that are heavy favorites off three or more straight wins, and playing on double-digit underdogs that were in the tournament last year. No. 3 seeds off back-to-back wins or more are just 4-14 ATS in the last 12 years. We'll go against the "hot" team and see if Cornell can handle the pressure.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #844 Kansas (-9.5) over North Dakota State (12:30 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Again, there are just a load of systems at work here that suggest a bounceback performance by the higher seed. Playing on teams that were No. 1 seeds in their conference tournaments that were upset in those tourneys (a la Washington) have been a strong, strong play in the past decade. Again, the public is all over NDSU so we're going to go the other way.
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 128 Dayton vs. West Virginia (3 p.m., Friday, March 20)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 122.5 Wisconsin vs. Florida State (9:55 p.m., Friday, March 20)
Today's Teasers:
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #826 Wake Forest (-3) over Cleveland State (9:40 p.m.) AND Take #846 West Virginia (-4) over Dayton (3 p.m., Friday, March 20)
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take Stephen F. Austin (+17) over Syracuse (12:15 p.m.) AND Take #842 Boston College (+7.5) over USC (7:20 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #833 Siena (+8) over Ohio State (9:40 p.m.) AND Take #844 Kansas (-4.5) over North Dakota State (12:30 p.m.)