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Opening Line Report - Week 14
By Marcus DiNitto

Here are the opening point-spreads and notes on early betting action for the four major college football championship games set for this week, plus Bedlam, the Big 12’s informal title contest.

We picked the brains of two prominent Las Vegas bookmakers – John Avello at the Wynn and Ed Salmons at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook – for their thoughts on the card.

Pac-12: Colorado vs. Washington (-7.5), Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara

Washington opened -6.5 at CG Technology but -7 almost everywhere else in Las Vegas, and early bettors laid the points, pushing the number to -7.5.

Avello cautions against spotting Colorado too many points. The Buffaloes’ two losses this season have come on the road against two of the better teams in the country – Michigan and USC. Also, while there does not appear to be path for them to make the College Football Playoff, the chance to win the Pac-12 title is all the motivation the Buffs need, Avello believes.

"This is a Colorado team that’s just trying to win a conference championship, and that’s probably all they’ve been trying to do from the very beginning," he said. "I don’t think they ever had aspirations of getting into the final four."

Washington, though, is back in the groove after its 26-13 loss to USC on Nov. 12, scoring 44 and 45 Arizona State and Washington State, respectively. "They got back to their ways of putting a lot of points on the board," Avello said. "This looks to be a game with a lot of points scored."

 

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Championship Game Notes

Week 14 of the 2016 college football season will be highlighted with eight championship games on tap.

The action starts Friday with the MAC and Pac-12 title games before finishing on Saturday with six more championships.

Check out the matchups, odds and betting notes on all eight title games below.

MAC Championship - Western Michigan vs. Ohio
Date: Friday, Dec. 2 (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m.)
Venue: Ford Field
Location: Detroit, Michigan

Odds: Western Michigan opened as a 19-point favorite.

Betting Notes and Trends

-- Friday’s matchup will be the 20th MAC Championship.

-- This will be the Western Michigan's first appearance in the title game since 2000.

-- Western Michigan and Ohio have never faced each other in the MAC title game. Ohio is making its first appearance in this contest since losing to Northern Illinois in 2011.

-- The Broncos destroyed the Bobcats earlier this season, 49-14 to cash as 3.5-point road underdogs.

-- Underdogs have gone 11-8 against the spread in the MAC title game.

-- Western Michigan is one of two undefeated teams in the country (Alabama), while going 6-0 on the road this season, 5-1 ATS. The Broncos went 4-3 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite.

-- Ohio won four of six games away from Athens this season, as one of those defeats came in September at Tennessee, 28-19 as 27-point underdogs.

Preseason Future Odds to win the MAC
Ohio 10/1
Western Michigan 4/1

Pac 12 Championship - Washington vs. Colorado
Date: Friday, Dec. 2 (FOX, 9:00 p.m.)
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, California

Odds: Washington opened up a seven-point favorite.

Betting Notes and Trends

-- The Pac-12 North has captured the first five championship games, which includes two wins by both Stanford and Oregon.

-- Favorites have gone 4-1 SU but just 2-3 ATS in the first four Pac-12 title games.

-- The ‘over/under’ has gone 3-2.

-- Both the Huskies and Buffaloes are making their first appearance in the conference championship.

-- These teams did not meet this season, as Washington has won all four matchups with Colorado since the Buffaloes joined the Pac-12 in 2011.

-- Washington won all five games away from Seattle this season, while Colorado went 3-2 in true road contests.

-- The Buffaloes put together a terrific 10-2 ATS record, including a 4-0 ATS mark in the underdog role.

Preseason Future Odds to win the Pac-12
Colorado 200/1
Washington 40/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MAC Championship Preview
By Joe Nelson

Matchup: Ohio Bobcats vs. Western Michigan Broncos
Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan
Time/TV: Friday, Dec. 2, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Line: Western Michigan -19, Over/Under 58½
Last Meeting: 2015, Western Michigan (+3) 49, at Ohio 14

Western Michigan is one of just two undefeated teams in the nation joining Alabama at 12-0 and while the Broncos won’t getting a call to the College Football Playoff they stand to be headed for the Cotton Bowl should they win as a heavy favorite Friday night to claim the MAC Championship.

Western Michigan has yet to be the top ranked ‘Group of 5’ team in any of the College Football Playoff rankings this season but that figures to change this week with Boise State and Houston losing last weekend as the two teams ranked just ahead of Western Michigan.

Western Michigan should get a boost this week after beating a quality Toledo team by 20 points, rising up to #13 in the AP Poll this week. Navy looks like the only other ‘Group of 5’ candidate that could get some attention for that coveted major bowl spot with the Midshipmen facing a more prominent foe in Temple for this week’s AAC championship but Navy is a challenging case given that they will play the Army game the following week after those bowl slots need to be determined.

The last time the MAC had this high of stakes in its championship game was when an 11-1 Northern Illinois team who had a one-point loss vs. Iowa to open the season played in the MAC Championship after the 2012 season.

They barely won in the title game going to double-overtime but a big difference was that the foe was an 11-1 Kent State team that was ranked #19 in the AP Poll at the time. In the old BCS format that win pushed the Huskies high enough to earn an Orange Bowl spot where the Huskies lost 31-10 against Florida State.

After a run of dominance in the MAC East from Bowling Green the past three seasons the division was wide open this season and Ohio claimed the division title with a 6-2 record, winning the head-to-head tiebreaker with Miami, OH who wound up 6-2 in league play as well.

Both of Ohio’s losses in league play came against MAC West teams but the Bobcats did win at Toledo 31-26 in a late October upset. Ohio had some inconsistent performances this season as they handed Texas State its only FBS win this season in the opening week but the Bobcats also beat Kansas from the Big XII on the road and played very close with a then highly regarded Tennessee team.

Ohio managed just nine points in its regular season finale win over Akron to hold on to this spot however. Ohio had five wins by 10 or fewer points this season but also had all four losses come by no more than nine points as close games were the norm.

P.J. Fleck is the second youngest FBS head coach in the nation at just 35 years old and he will face off against 71-year old Frank Solich who is the second oldest head coach behind Bill Snyder. Fleck played at Northern Illinois and briefly had a role as a player with the San Francisco 49ers before coaching roles at his Alma mater as well as Rutgers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

He is a fiery character that has been criticized for some cutthroat recruiting tactics but in four seasons he has gone from 1-11 to back-to-back bowl seasons in Kalamazoo with his fourth season poised to be the greatest in the program’s history. Those results have certainly kept his name on the coaching rumor mill with the Purdue opening an obvious fit but also possibilities at even bigger programs like Houston, Notre Dame, or Oregon not out of the question.

The Broncos have a veteran offense that has improved in scoring and production in every season under Fleck. While he won’t get serious Heisman Trophy interest the numbers for senior quarterback Zach Terrell are astounding, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns with an over 71 percent completion rate. Terrell has thrown just one interception in 318 attempts this season and a credit to his offensive line is that he has taken only 12 sacks in 12 games.

In the backfield junior Jarvion Franklin has led the team with over 1,200 rushing yards with sophomore Jamauri Bogan producing nearly 800 rushing yards with both averaging over 5.5 yards per carry while combining for 20 touchdowns.

The star of the offense is senior wide receiver Corey Davis who turned in 83 receptions in 17 touchdowns in the regular season and figures to be at worst a mid-round NFL draft pick next spring. Western Michigan is third nationally with nearly 45 points per game scored this season led by a rushing attack that has gained 246 yards per game.

The Western Michigan defense has good numbers allowing just over 19 points per game this season but four times the Broncos allowed 30 or more points. The Broncos are tied with Washington at +18 for the best turnover margin in the nation which has been a big part of the success as not once this season did Western Michigan lose the turnover battle while also scoring four interception return touchdowns on the season plus two special teams scores.

The schedule featured two prominent wins vs. Big Ten teams early in the season but Northwestern wasn’t playing well in the first month and Illinois had a brutal transition season. The early season win over Georgia Southern also proved less impressive than it looked at the time and conventional MAC West powers Central Michigan and Northern Illinois had down seasons as there is reason to be a bit suspicious of the perfect record. The opening week one-point win vs. Northwestern was the only Broncos win by fewer than 14 points however as the results have been quite dominant.

Frank Solich was a longtime Nebraska assistant under Tom Osborne and after 19 seasons in background he became the head coach in 1998, taking over after the Cornhuskers won the 1997 national championship.

In his second season the Cornhuskers went 12-1 while winning the Fiesta Bowl to finish #2 in the Coaches Poll and #3 in the AP Poll and Nebraska played in the Rose Bowl for the national championship after the 2001 season, losing to Miami. Despite a 58-19 mark in six seasons Solich was fired late in the 2003 season and after taking a season off he landed at Ohio.

It has been an impressive run with the Bobcats despite a few missteps off the field as in now 12 seasons in Athens Solich has had just two losing seasons and has finished 6-6 or better in each of the last eight seasons as perhaps the most stable program in a league that often sees programs on quick rises and falls with frequent coaching departures. This was Ohio’s fourth division title under Solich but Ohio is yet to capture a MAC championship with title game losses in 2006, 2009, and 2011.

A wrinkle this week is that Ohio’s initial starting quarterback senior Greg Windham might be cleared to play after missing most of the past five games due to an ankle injury. Windham didn’t play significantly until this season but he was having a solid season with nine touchdowns and only three interceptions and over 1,300 yards passing.

In relief freshman Quinton Maxwell has posted similar numbers in the passing game though he has been a bit less successful of a rushing threat. Dorian Brown has been the workhorse in the backfield with 140 carries despite missing three games and senior Sebastian Smith has compiled over 800 receiving yards on just 50 catches as the top big play threat on the offense.

Ohio has been successful under Solich with a consistent rushing attack and good defense and that has been the formula this season, allowing fewer than 22 points per game. Ohio was close to a major upset in non-conference action as they lost just 28-19 at Tennessee in September holding a well regarded Volunteers offense in check in what was a two-point game into the fourth quarter with the Bobcats settling for four short field goals in the game for some missed opportunities.

Ohio covered as an underdog in the last two MAC Championships they played in despite losing both games and Solich has a few notable upsets in recent years including beating Penn State in 2012 and Northern Illinois late last season to cost the Huskies the outright division title.

Historical Trends:

-- Ohio is 35-30-2 ATS as an underdog under Solich since 2005 including a current 7-2 run the past two seasons.

-- Ohio is just 4-6 ATS since 2010 as a double-digit underdog although they have covered in the past three instances including both games this season. By the spread the biggest upset win for Solich at Ohio was a 35-23 win at Northern Illinois early in the 2006 season as a +20 underdog.

-- Ohio is 4-1 ATS since 2011 in neutral site games with a 3-1 ATS mark in bowl games in that span and a narrow cover in a 23-20 loss in the last MAC Championship game appearance.

-- Western Michigan has split bowl games the past two seasons under Fleck and this is the program’s first MAC Championship game appearance since back-to-back trips in 1999 and 2000.

-- Fleck owns a glowing 31-19 ATS mark in now four seasons, going 16-10 ATS as a favorite.

-- Western Michigan is 9-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite the past three seasons including going 3-1 ATS away from home.

-- The only upset loss for Western Michigan as a double-digit favorite came in Fleck’s first game in Kalamazoo with the Broncos losing 23-27 to FBS Nicholls State as about a four touchdown favorite coming off a competitive game at Michigan State the previous week.

MAC Championship History:

After a run of four straight competitive games from 2009 to 2012 in the championship the past three title games have been blowouts with wins by at least 20 points. This is the first time since 2009 that Northern Illinois has not been the West representative and for the past three seasons the championship game was the exact same matchup with the Huskies vs. Bowling Green. While Marshall, a program responsible for five titles is no longer a MAC member the East champion is 11-8 S/U in the title game since it was established in 1997.

The game has been played at spacious Ford Field since 2004 and after meager attendance below 20,000 in five of the past six seasons a bigger crowd should be expected this season with two programs in the mix that haven’t been in this game in several years and reasonable travel on both sides, especially for Western Michigan which is about a two-hour drive from Detroit. Since 2008 the underdog in 6-2 ATS in the MAC title game with three outright upsets including Buffalo’s 2008 win over Ball State as +15½-point underdog and Miami, OH’s win over Northern Illinois in 2010 at a similar price to this season’s game as a +19½-point underdog.


MAC Championship History (1997-2015)
Year Location Matchup Line Score ATS Result
2015 Detroit NIU-Bowling Green Bowling Green -14 (69) Bowling Green 34-14 Favorite-Under
2014 Detroit NIU-Bowling Green NIU -5 (64) NIU 51-17 Favorite-Over
2013 Detroit NIU-Bowling Green NIU -3 (58) BG 47-27 Underdog-Over
2012 Detroit NIU-Kent State NIU -5 (60) NIU 44-37 (2OT) Favorite-Over
2011 Detroit NIU-Ohio NIU -3.5 (71) NIU 23-20 Underdog-Under
2010 Detroit NIU-Miami (Ohio) NIU -18.5 (55) Miami (Ohio) 26-21 Underdog-Under
2009 Detroit Ohio-C. Michigan C. Michigan -14 (55.5) CMU 20-10 Underdog-Under
2008 Detroit Ball State-Buffalo Ball State -15 (63.5) Buffalo 42-24 Underdog-Over
2007 Detroit C. Michigan-Miami (Ohio) C. Michigan -3 (63.5) CMU 35-10 Favorite-Under
2006 Detroit Ohio-C. Michigan C. Michigan -3 (47) CMU 31-10 Favorite-Under
2005 Detroit Akron-NIU NIU -13 (54) Akron 31-30 Underdog-Over
2004 Detroit Toledo-Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) -1 (65) Toledo 35-27 Underdog-Under
2003 Detroit Bowling Green-Miami (Ohio) Miami (Ohio) -7 (57) Miami (Ohio) 49-27 Favorite-Over
2002 Huntington Marshall-Toledo Marshall -3.5 (62.5) Marshall 49-45 Favorite-Over
2001 Toledo Toledo-Marshall Marshall -3 (62.5) Toledo 41-36 Underdog-Over
2000 Huntington Marshall-W. Michigan W. Michigan -6.5 (52) Marshall 19-14 Underdog-Under
1999 Huntington Marshall-W. Michigan Marshall -20.5 (57) Marshall 34-30 Underdog-Over
1998 Huntington, Marshall-Toledo Marshall -12 (49) Marshall 23-17 Underdog-Under
1997 Huntington Marshall-Toledo Marshall -1 (53) Marshall 34-14 Favorite-Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football four-point stance: Championship Week pointspread picks and predictions
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Mike MacIntyre and the Buffaloes have put together a remarkable 10-2 season that has landed Colorado in its first-ever Pac-12 Championship game.

Too bad it comes against an absolutely loaded Washington Huskies program.

Since sustaining a wakeup call against USC in the form of a 26-13 upset loss back on November 12, head coach Chris Petersen and the Huskies have utterly decimated the competition by way of a 44-18 annihilation of Arizona State and 45-17 drubbing of a high-powered Washington State squad. And with a spot in the four-team playoff just sixty minutes away, look for Washington to put together one of its best performances of the season against a Colorado team that, while aggressive and well-prepared, is still somewhat lacking in the talent department.

Two key trends to keep in mind for Friday night’s Pac-12 championship game at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California are as follows: Colorado is 0-6 ATS over its last six meetings with Washington, while the favorite in this series has covered the number in each of the last four encounters between these two programs.

Between a smart and capable quarterback in Jake Browning, a top-flight, ball-hawking defense and one of the country’s best special teams units, it will be Washington early and often Friday night in Santa Clara.

Pick: Washington -7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Top Action

MAC Championship Betting Preview
Western Michigan Broncos (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Ohio Bobcats (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds: Western Michigan (-19)

The undefeated (12-0) Western Michigan Broncos look to cap off their historic season with a MAC Championship on Friday night and are heavy favorites to do so. A victory here would give the Broncos that “party crashing” Bowl bid as part of the New Year's Six and that has clearly been one of their goals all year long.

The fact that they are one of two teams remaining undefeated in CFB (the other is Alabama) is a remarkable feat for this program that hasn't won much of anything for years and they've done it in dramatic fashion as 11 of their 12 wins have come by double digits.

Bettors have a much different dilemma when handicapping this game though as while Western Michigan would love a win of any margin, bettors have to deal with this 19-point spread listed on the game. Aside from both programs obviously wanting to come away as conference champions, the pressure is clearly on the Western Michigan side as they look to remain undefeated and represent the non-power conferences in one of those big bowl games. These are still 18-22 year old kids remember and sometimes pressure like that can do funny things.

There is no question the Broncos are the more talented team here and should come away with the outright win here, but completely disregarding Ohio's ability to show up and make a game out of it would be a complete disservice to the talent that they've got over there.

Ohio got here with a 8-4 SU record as they scraped out a 9-3 win vs. Akron last week to punch their ticket. This will be Ohio's third appearance in the MAC Championship game since 2009, and in both previous instances they program came up short. Obviously none of those results matter to this year's team, but they would love to bring the school their first MAC title since this game has been played (1997) and do it in historic fashion by knocking off this undefeated opponent.

Furthermore, the guys on this Ohio team would love to get revenge for two consecutive blowout losses to Western Michigan in 2014 and 15, especially when last year's game was in Ohio with the Bobcats laying -3.5 points and losing 49-14. Some may point to that contest as another indicator that Western Michigan is clearly the better team here, but the point spread is always the great equalizer and winning by three TD's might be too much to put on the Broncos shoulders given their situation.

Simply put, I firmly believe this is a few too many points for Western Michigan to cover in this spot and with over 85% of the bets already laying all that chalk, being in the minority here isn't a bad thing.

Ohio's defense is one of the best in the MAC at stopping the run (105.1 yards/game allowed) and the Broncos love to establish their dominance early on the ground. If Ohio can negate that early on, and this remains a close game for the first half or beyond, all that pressure of remaining undefeated, winning a Conference Championship, and getting an invite as one of the “New Year's Six” will begin to creep up on Western Michigan.

Throw in the fact that Ohio is 5-1 ATS in their last six games against a winning team, 11-4 ATS when coming off a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games, grabbing the points with the underdog here is the best way to go. Ohio will look to turn this game into a dogfight right from the start and win the time of possession battle to keep the high-powered Broncos offense off the field for as long as possible. If that happens, this game will definitely stay within two TD's.

Best Bet: Ohio +19

Pac-12 Conference Championship Betting Preview
Colorado Buffaloes (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS) vs. Washington Huskies (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds: Washington (-7.5); Total set at 58

Two unlikely programs meet in the Pac-12 Title game on Friday night as there isn't anyone out there that would have projected this game to be Colorado vs. Washington at the beginning of the season.

Yet, both teams played great football all year long as Colorado was one of the best bets in CFB with a 10-2 ATS record (10-2 SU as well), while Washington finished 11-1 SU and has a chance to get into the National Championship playoff with a win. First things first though for the Huskies as they'll have to knock off this very talented Colorado team that has made a habit of proving the oddsmakers wrong all year.

It's tough to argue against the fact that Colorado's season as a whole has been tremendous. Their two SU losses came to USC and Michigan, both ranked in the Top 15 at regular season's end. The Buffaloes also managed to keep those games closer than expected as they went 2-0 ATS as underdogs in those contests, and even went up to Oregon in late September as 14-point underdogs (one of the worst lines of the year looking back) and won outright.

Colorado's only two ATS losses came when they were double-digit home favorites, and getting points they've been a perfect 4-0 ATS with two outright wins. So can they go into a neutral site and destroy Washington's hopes of a Conference Championship and a playoff berth?

Past results would suggest that it's tough to go against the Buffaloes here given their success at the betting window, especially as underdogs. Yet, aside from that loss @ USC – which does rank better than Washington's home loss to the Trojans in common opponent comparisons – Colorado had a more favorable schedule than Washington and took full advantage of it.

The two teams never met in the regular season, but Colorado caught Stanford (10-5 Buffaloes win) during Stanford's lull in mid-season and got the only other Pac-12 teams that finished with a winning record (Utah, Washington State) at home. Colorado beat Washington State and Utah by 14 and 5 points respectively, while Washington went on the road to face those two programs and won by 28 and 7 points respectively.

The Cougars also blew out Oregon in Oregon by 49 points where the Buffaloes escaped Eugene with a 3-point W. In nearly all the comparisons you find from common opponents for Washington and Colorado, it's the Huskies who have a clear cut edge and that could very well play out on the field this week.

Now, as is the case with many other Conference Championship games this weekend, the pressure to get into the CFB playoff is something the Huskies will have to deal with here, but they've got a veteran-laden team that should be able to cope well.

HC Chris Petersen moved on from Boise State to Washington three years ago to get his opportunity to lead a Power-5 program to the promised land and he won't let his first opportunity at getting there pass him by. He's long been one of the best coaches in college football and is fully aware of the “underdog mentality” Colorado will bring to this game. Petersen will have his Huskies overly prepared for every possible situation that may arise and should be able to hand Colorado it's first ATS loss as underdogs this year.

Historically, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past five meetings between these two programs and Colorado is on a 0-6 ATS run vs the Huskies at any line. That doesn't mean much in this one with the high turnover of CFB rosters, but with the Huskies ability to put up points in a hurry and there decided edge in results from common opponents, Washington wins this game comfortably and earns their spot in the CFB Playoffs.

Best Bet: Washington -7.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MAC Championship Game Betting Preview: Western Michigan vs Ohio

No. 17 Western Michigan vs Ohio (18.5, 59.5)

Western Michigan attempts to nail down a spot in the Cotton Bowl when it takes on Ohio in the Mid-American Conference championship game at Ford Field in Detroit on Friday night. The No. 14 Broncos, who join No. 1 Alabama as the only unbeaten teams in the nation and are winners of 14 straight overall, play in the championship game for the first time since losing in 1999 and 2000.

“For us to go there and to become 1-0 in the Ohio season is our only focus,” Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck told reporters. “There’s no other focus. We’re not here to state a case, we’re just going to play football. We’re going to let our play talk for itself and hopefully come out with a victory.”

The Broncos boast one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation in senior Zach Terrell and senior receiver Corey Davis, who gained more yards than anyone in FBS history through the air. Ohio took the MAC East for the first time since 2011 after winning four of its final five games and looks to win its first championship game.

“Our guys have accepted challenges all year long, and they’ll accept this one,” Bobcats coach Frank Solich told reporters. “They’ll play hard, and if we play well we believe it’ll be a very good football game.”

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: Western Michigan opened as big 18-point favorites over Toledo, that number rose to 19 mid-week and faded back to 18.5 as of Friday morning. The total opened 58.5 and has been bet up to 59.

INJURY REPORT:

Western Michigan - S Justin Ferguson (out for season, ankle)

Ohio - S Greg Wyndham (questionable, ankle), S Mayne Williams (questionable, head), WR Andrew Meyer (questionable, undisclosed), DL Tony Porter (questionable, foot), OL Jared McCray (questionable, undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: Dome

WHAT BOOKS SAY: 'We opened Western Michigan as a 18 point favourite and it was quickly bet up to -19 a few hours later. Western Michigan still sits at -19 with over 80% of the action. As for the total we opened at 57 and with over 90% of the action coming in on the OVER we have moved all the way up to a 60 point total.' - Michael Stewart

ABOUT WESTERN MICHIGAN (12-0 SU, 9-3 ATS, 7-5 O/U): Terrell completes 71.7 percent of his passes for 3,086 yards and 30 touchdown strikes while being intercepted once and running for another six scores. Davis broke the all-time receiving yards record last week in the 55-35 victory over Toledo and boasts 83 catches this season for 1,283 yards and 17 touchdowns. Junior Jarvion Franklin is a consistent force on the ground with 1,266 yards rushing to go along with 12 touchdowns and sophomore Jamauri Bogan ran for 198 last week after missing two games with an ankle injury.

ABOUT OHIO (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 1-10-1 O/U): The Bobcats are fifth in the nation rushing defense, allowing 105.1 yards per game, led by senior linebacker Blair Brown (105 tackles) and junior linebacker Quentin Poling (95). Ohio also topped the MAC in sacks with 41 as senior defensive lineman Tarell Basham posted 11 of them and that group must put pressure on Terrell. The Bobcats were in the middle of the pack in total offense, but senior receiver Sebastian Smith has 49 catches for 820 yards and senior quarterback Greg Windham (leg) could return after missing the last three games.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
* Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 games following a ATS win.
* Under is 6-0 in Bobcats last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent are picking the double-digit dog and the over Over is getting 62 percent.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Championship Game Betting Preview: Colorado vs Washington

No. 8 Colorado Buffaloes at No. 4 Washington Huskies (-7.5, 58.5)

The sixth Pac-12 Championship Game will feature two first-time participants when Colorado and Washington square off Friday at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. Ninth-ranked Colorado was the surprise champion of the Pac-12 South after making the biggest single-season turnaround in conference history while the fourth-ranked Huskies nearly ran the table in backing up their status as the preseason North Division favorites.

Washington, of course, has its sights set much higher – namely a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff – and the Huskies moved to No. 4 in the CFP rankings released Tuesday night. Quarterback Jake Browning, who leads the conference in passing efficiency (181.6) and touchdown tosses (40), was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, but coach Chris Petersen’s crew also possesses the conference’s top scoring defense at 17.8 points allowed per contest.

“You don’t win a bunch of games year after year unless you have a quality, championship-level defense,” Petersen told the media earlier this week. “When it comes down to championships you have to play a high level of defense.”

Meanwhile, at No. 8 in the CFP rankings and more than a touchdown underdog Friday, the odds are once again stacked against Colorado, prompting quarterback Sefo Liufau to tell reporters: “I don’t think anyone is picking us to win, I don’t think anyone wants us to win and that’s totally OK. We know what we’re capable of. … We just have to go out and play.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as 7-point favorites and was quickly bet up half-point to -7.5 and has remained there since Monday morning. The total opened at 58 and by midweek inched up to 58.5.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: ‘This is a huge game for Washington and their CFP chances. We opened Washington as a 7 point favourite and within a couple of hours we moved it to -7.5, where we currently sit and seeing solid two way action with just over 60% of the action on Washington to cover.’ - Michael Stewart.

INJURY REPORT:

Colorado - DB Ankello Witherspoon (probable, leg), DB Jaisen Sanchez (questionable, knee), OL Gerrad Kough (questionable, ankle), WR Bryce Bobo (questionable, leg), LB Christian Shaver (out, suspension), DE Jaleel Awini (out, suspension), TE Chris Hill (out, suspension)

Washington - LB Keishawn Bierria (probable, leg), WR Brayden Lenius (questionable, undisclosed)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football at Levi Stadium. The forecast is calling for clear skies with temperatures in the low 40’s at kick off. There will be a slight wind of five mph coming from the northeast and gusts at 8 mph.

ABOUT COLORADO (10-2 SU, 10-2 ATS, 5-7 O/U): After setting a conference record with their seven-game conference improvement – they were 1-8 a year ago – Buffaloes coach Mike MacIntyre was an easy choice for Pac-12 Coach of the Year. Liufau missed three starts due to a midseason ankle injury but still ranks fourth in Pac-12 total offense (263.3 yards per game) and is complemented nicely by All-Pac-12 second-team running back Phillip Lindsay (fourth in the conference with 94.7 rushing yards per game). Linebacker Jimmie Gilbert (team-most nine sacks and 12 tackles for loss) was the only All-Pac-12 first-team defensive selection for Colorado, which leads the league in total (323.8 yards surrendered) and pass defense (187.8 yards).

ABOUT WASHINGTON (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS, 8-3-1 O/U): The Huskies had a conference-most nine first-team All-Pac 12 selections with running back Myles Gaskin (second in the conference at 98.3 yards per outing) and wideout John Ross (second with 89.2 receiving yards) among the honorees. It’s little surprise, then, that Washington is the conference’s highest-scoring team with 44.8 points per game and has scored 31 or more in all of its wins. Four Huskies appear on the All-Pac-12 first-team defense, including safety Budda Baker (61 total stops, team-most nine tackles for loss) and defensive tackle Elijah Qualls (five tackles for loss, three sacks).

TRENDS:

* Buffaloes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Buffaloes are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
* Under is 6-1 in Buffaloes last 7 neutral site games.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: 47 percent are taking the road dog while 69 percent favor the over in this battle of Pac-12 rivals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ohio Bobcats (8-4) at Western Michigan Broncos (12-0)

Date: December 02, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

Zach Terrell and Corey Davis wouldn't be such a dynamic duo unless they knew what it's like to be awful.

That's the way Western Michigan coach P.J. Fleck looks at his senior quarterback and top wide receiver. The undefeated and 21st-ranked Broncos, who face Ohio for the Mid-American Conference championship at Detroit's Ford Field on Friday, were 1-11 just three years ago.

"These guys have used their failing as growth," Fleck said. "They didn't look at the failing as failures and quit. They were both 1-11. They both understood the pressures they were under to get better. The greatest people and greatest leaders in the world have failed the most. I really believe that."

Terrell and Davis have played magnificently during this dream season for Western Michigan, which will likely emerge from the Group of Five and earn a New Year's Six bowl berth with a victory. Terrell has completed 71.7 percent of his pass attempts with 30 touchdown passes and just one interception. His favorite target, Davis, has 83 receptions for 1,283 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Davis set the FBS career receiving yards record in the Broncos' 55-35 win over Toledo on Friday, which clinched the MAC West Division title. Davis enters the title game with 5,068 yards.

"There's a lot of meat left on the bone," Terrell said. "There are a lot of things to accomplish that we've yet to accomplish. We're going to continue to work hard, both Corey and I, and we've got a lot left to do."

The Broncos (12-0 overall, 8-0 conference) haven't been to the MAC championship game since 2000, when they were defeated by Marshall for the second straight season.

Fleck doesn't want his team to worry how the selection committee views his team.

"I can't control where we are in the polls," he said. The Broncos are also ranked 13th in the AP Top 25 poll.

"We're not here to state a case. We're just here to play football. We're going to let our play talk for itself."

Speculation is running rampant that Fleck will leave for a bigger program and he's made a point of addressing the rumors with his team.

"I believe they deserve to know what's going on, what the truth really is because they're my children, they're my kids," he said. "That's the way I look at it."

The Bobcats are also seeking their first MAC championship victory. They were defeated by Northern Illinois, 23-20, in their last trip to Ford Field in 2011 and are 0-3 overall in the title game.

Ohio (8-4, 6-2) won a tiebreaker over Miami (Ohio) to capture the East Division. The Bobcats have won four of their last five, including a 9-3 win over Akron on Nov. 22 to secure their berth.

Freshman Quinton Maxwell has taken over at quarterback during the second half of the season, completing 55.9 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. Senior quarterback Greg Windham missed the last three games with a leg injury and his status for Friday's game is uncertain.

Junior Dorian Brown (794 yards, four TDs) and sophomore Maleek Irons (426 yards, five TDs) head the rushing attack.

Veteran coach Frank Solich realizes that few people give his team a chance to win.

"There's a circle of guys who think we will win the game and obviously that's our guys, our team and the people within our program, some of our fans obviously and some of their parents and friends. But we are the underdogs and rightfully so," he said. "Western Michigan has played at a level where they are deserving of all the accolades that they're getting."

After watching Western Michigan dismantle Toledo, Solich knows his team needs to play a near perfect game to win.

"What are they, a plus 18 on turnovers? It's a ridiculous number," he said. "We're something like a plus five so there's a disparity there. We're going to have to take care of the ball, we cannot give them the ball. We cannot give them great field position time after time and somehow think that we're going to get it done. So we've got to get a few turnovers, we have to take great care of the ball, we've got to win the field position battle and go from there."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Colorado Buffaloes (10-2) at Washington Huskies (11-1)

Date: December 02, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

A victory by fourth-ranked Washington over No. 9 Colorado in the Pac-12 Championship Game might be enough to get the Huskies into the College Football Playoff.

But maybe not.

The prospect of the Big Ten getting two teams into the four-team playoff could shut out Washington (11-1), even if it defeats the surprising Buffaloes (10-2), who went from worst to first in the Pac-12 South in one season.

The teams play in the sixth Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday night at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The North champ is 5-0 in the league title game.

Washington's poor non-conference strength of schedule (Rutgers, Idaho, Portland State) could come into play when the selection committee makes its decisions, but first there is the matter of finding a way to beat a veteran, balanced Colorado squad.

"I've always said that if we take care of business, everywhere I've been, those people usually do the right thing," Huskies coach Chris Petersen said. "Our whole focus is on Colorado. We've got a big hurdle there, and if we can get over that hurdle, yeah."

The Buffaloes cleared big hurdles in the past two weeks, twice defeating teams ranked No. 22. They followed a 38-24 win over Washington State with a 27-22 win against Utah to clinch the South at 8-1. That marks three more conference victories than Colorado managed over its first five seasons in the Pac-12.

"I can't say enough about these seniors. I'm speechless to be honest with you," said coach Mike MacIntyre.

"They're my heroes, that's the best way to say it. A hero goes beyond and above what you think they can do. They don't listen to anything. They keep going out there and rescuing people. That's what these young men have done, they keep lifting each other up and lifting us up."

Washington is third nationally in scoring at 44.8 points per game.

Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning is third in the country in passing touchdowns (40), fourth in passing efficiency (181.6 rating) and ninth in yards per completion (14.78). In last week's showdown at Washington State for the Pac-12 North title, he completed 21 of 29 passes for 292 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin ran for 1,180 yards in the regular season, his second season of at least 1,000 yards. Speedy senior John Ross is second nationally with 16 touchdown catches. Wide receiver Dante Pettis has 14 touchdown receptions.

"Their quarterback is extremely accurate," MacIntyre said. "Gaskins and Ross are just so fast and explosive, Pettis catches everything and their offensive line is good. I'd call it a precise, efficient offense with big-play capabilities."

Colorado ranks 13th nationally in total defense (323.8 yards per game) and scoring defense (18.8 points). Senior cornerback Chidobe Awuzie was selected the team's most valuable defensive player; he has 54 tackles, 10 pass break-ups and a nine career sacks, four this season. Safety Tedric Thompson has tied the school record for most interceptions in a season with seven.

The Buffaloes' offense isn't as explosive as Washington's, but the run-pass balance is formidable. Senior quarterback Sefo Liufau has thrown for 2,150 yards, completing 64.6 percent of his 277 passes, with just three interceptions. Running back Phillip Lindsay posted 1,136 rushing yards in the regular season, to go with 44 receptions. Liufau also has 483 rushing yards.

"They keep their offense in third-and-manageable situations and then they spread you out and then he keeps it," Petersen said of Liufau. "He's tough and big and strong. He'll put his pads down, and you look up and he's got three yards or he's got four yards by tough running."

Washington's hallmark on defense is being able to control the action with its front four, able to pressure the passer without blitzing and not needing to stack the box to stop the run. The Huskies' 16 interceptions are tied for 10th in the country.

The Huskies' defense is packed with five of the top 102 draft-eligible prospects for 2017, according to NFLDraftScout.com. Three of those are defensive backs -- cornerbacks Sidney Jones (No. 20) and Kevin King (No. 102), and safety Budda Baker (No. 48).

Washington did lose starting linebackers Joe Mathis and Azeem Victor to injuries during the season, but redshirt freshman D.J. Beavers is making the most of his new opportunity. Beavers tallied four tackles with a forced fumble, fumble recovery and interception in last week's game against Washington State.

Washington and Colorado each lost to USC, with the Buffaloes also dropping a game at Michigan. They were leading that game in the second half before Liufau left with an injury.

The Huskies have won six consecutive meetings against Colorado, the last coming in 2014 in Boulder, 38-23.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Friday’s games

MAC title game, Detroit

Western Michigan/Ohio didn’t play this year; Broncos hammered Ohio 49-14 LY, running ball for 430 yards. WMU is 12-0 this year; they won their opener 22-21 at Northwestern, rest of their wins have been by 16+ points. Broncos are 2-3 vs spread when laying 17+ points. Ohio U won four of last five games after a 4-3 start; they covered both games as an underdog this season. Bobcats are 0-4 when they allow 27+ points, 8-0 when they allow less. Western scored 34+ in each of their last ten games. Ohio is in MAC title game for first time in five years; they’re 0-3 (2-1 vs spread) in this game. Broncos are in this game for first time since 2000. Under is 9-1-1 in Ohio U games, 1-4 in last five WMU games.

Pac-12 title game, Santa Clara
Colorado is having a dream season, winning its last six games- their losses are at Michigan (45-28), USC (21-17). Buffs were 27-71 last 8 years, are 10-2 this year, covering all four games as an underdog. Washington covered only two of last six games* but is 3-1 vs spread as a single digit favorite this year; their only loss was at home to USC three weeks ago. Huskies are 5-0 on road, scoring 49.4 pts/game. Teams last met in 2014; Huskies won that game 38-23. Under is 6-2 in last eight Colorado games, 3-0 in Washington’s last three. Both teams are in Pac-12 title game for first time. This is Washington’s first game on natural grass this year; Colorado split a pair on grass, winning 10-5 at Stanford, losing 21-17 at USC.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

Coming up on Saturday is opening day at Gulfstream Park, which will feature the 18th edition of the Claiming Crown.

The 11-race card offers over $1 million in purses and is highlighted by nine stakes race restricted to horses that have started for a claiming price. It is truly a “blue collar” day of horse racing and one of my favorite wagering days of the year.

I’ll have Saturday’s card up by midafternoon on Friday and will be up late Thursday evening handicapping the large fields.

The shortest field of the Claiming Crown races is the is the richest, the $200,000 Claiming Crown Jewel which drew a field of nine that will go 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

The field sizes of the other races will be 11,11,14,14,14,13,14 and 14.

The toteboard figures to light up all afternoon, except perhaps for the Jewel. The 7-5 morning line favorite is the defending champ Royal Posse for the Rudy Rodrigues barn.

The gelding was claimed for $20,000 and has gone on to land in the exacta in 13 straight outings for the barn. He has racked up $459,000 in purse earnings this year alone.

His last outing came in the New York bred Empire Classic where he was a much the best winner, his third win in a row and earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. His previous high was a 101 earned three back winning the Alydar Stakes.

He is going to be very tough to beat, but the good news is I am pretty sure he is the only chalk I will be picking on the entire 11-race card.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000N3L (12:20 ET)
#1 Chasintheblues 6-1
#4 Oathkeeper 5-2
#2 Tiz a Chance 5-1
#10 Roccia d'Oro 3-1

Analysis: Chasintheblues took the field gate to wire to beat state bred Alw-1 foes last out going six furlongs on turf. The gelding stretches out to a route and has shown he can handle the extra ground. He comes in here sharp and looks well spotted dropping in for a $25,000 tag and facing non-winners of three.

Oathkeeper tracked the early pace and faded to finish 10th last out against Alw-2 optional claimers. He is 0 for 4 since landing in the U.S. but catches an easier group here on the class drop. His speed figs two and three back put him in the mix in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,2,4,10
TRI: 1,4 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,4,7,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 7 Clm $16,000 (3:14 ET)
#7 Derby Glass 10-1
#8 Don Dulce 3-1
#10 Point Hope 5-2
#1 Husband's Folly / 1a Wizardly 5-1

Analysis: Derby Glass faded to finish a well beaten fifth last out against $25,000 claimers in his first start off the claim by the Englehart barn. The gelding drops into a softer spot here tagged for $16,000 and earlier this summer she beat $20,000 foes and was only beaten a head for a $25,000 tag. He is better than he showed last out and the 10-1 morning line looks more than fair.

Don Dulce tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish last out against $25,000 foes going a m mile as the beaten chalk. The gelding was claimed out of the race by the Asmussen barn that is 15% winners first off the claim. He was good enough to beat $80,000 optional claimers last September at Belmont park. The barn has been ending out live runners at the meeting and this guy owns back numbers good enough to easily beat this group.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 1,7,8,10
TRI: 7,8 / 1,7,8,10 / 1,4,7,8,10

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R7: #7 Derby Glass 10-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 7:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$6000 - 2016 HOLIDAY PACE - 1ST LEG - NON-WINNERS $12,500 IN 2016 AS OF 10-31-16 SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 I'M BLUE TOO 5/1
# 5 PRAMATIC LIFE 9/5
# 1 THATS MY DREAM 8/5

All signs point to I'M BLUE TOO for the pick. Hard to put finger on it, but lean toward him today. He's doing work in fine form, recording formidable TrackMaster Speed Ratings. An excellent pick. With a 80 average class rating, this contender has one of the strongest class edges in the group of horses. PRAMATIC LIFE - He has been performing competitively and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the finest in the field. Good for a win wager just off the top notch prior class stats. Have to like this contender. THATS MY DREAM - Has the perfect running style to better this race, according to the pace statistics. The wagering panel will always toss in a fine animal from the 1 post here at Saratoga Harness, definitely worth a look.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Post: 10:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$18000 - FILLIES & MARES, 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 RACES OR $50,000 LIFETIME.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 6 BETTYS BAY 10/1
# 10 TEMPUS SEELSTER 6/1
# 7 TOP ROYAL 12/1

Hard not to love BETTYS BAY as the top pick for this race and look at those reasonable morning line odds. Horses starting from the 6 hole have given investors nice returns on their money. Many harness players will recognize the stellar speed rating in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this race. More wins than you would expect have been recorded by horses lining up behind the 6 hole at Woodbine. TEMPUS SEELSTER - This affair may be controlled by this filly. One look at the avgerage speed rating will prove that. You have to love a horse that likes to win, very impressive win rate. TOP ROYAL - Enters this contest with respectable TrackMaster class numbers as compared to the group of horses - take a good look.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 2 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 IN THE EVENT THAT THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF IT


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 FLIRTIN N FLASHIN 3/1

# 9 TAM 9/2

# 1 FORT PRADA 4/1

FLIRTIN N FLASHIN is my choice. Looks very strong for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in turf sprint races as of late. Is hard not to consider based on speed figures which have been very good - 68 avg - of late. Posted a respectable speed fig last time out. TAM - Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 84 - of her last outing. FORT PRADA - Has recorded reliable Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races in the past. This mare should be given a chance just off the earnings per start in turf sprint races alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $11440 Class Rating: 91

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 3 FOOSEABILITY 3/1

# 8 FRENEMY 2/1

# 1 IMALONER 10/1

FOOSEABILITY is the best wager in this race. Demonstrates the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 84 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this field. Peinado ought to be able to get this filly to break out early for this event. Put up a sound Equibase Speed Fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. FRENEMY - Should definitely be considered for this event if only for the formidable speed figure garnered in the last contest. Has performed soundly as of late in short races, posting a nifty 77 avg speed figure. IMALONER - Overall the speed figures of this pony look very good in this race. When this jockey and trainer team up, bettors often make money.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #2 - Post: 7:31pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#7 THURGOOD (ML=5/2)


THURGOOD - This gelding is back in a race very quick. This is a great angle - Sprinters that come back in less than 10 days after a race. A good sign of a sharp and ready racehorse. A repeat of that most recent performance on November 24th where he recorded a speed rating of 71 looks high enough to triumph in this event. This animal is number one in earnings per race. He looks strong in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BOOTS MALONE (ML=2/1), #2 RISK IT (ML=7/2), #4 MIDNIGHT BLUE (ML=5/1),

BOOTS MALONE - Doubtful for this entrant to make a winning move with no recent good showings in a short distance event. I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. RISK IT - This gelding probably needs a more conducive pace configuration to make his closing move. MIDNIGHT BLUE - This gelding hasn't had any recent good fortune in short distance events. Tough to wager on him in this event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #7 THURGOOD on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [2,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Laurel - Race #2 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 81

Rating:

#7 RUMBLIN KYLE (ML=8/1)


RUMBLIN KYLE - When Gomez and Capuano combine forces on equines the return on investment has been fantastic at +76. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Laurel last time out. That affair had a class figure of 86 and he is moving down in this race. A certain strong challenger. Capuano seems to have this gelding primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is outstanding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 RESURGENCE (ML=3/5), #5 ALEX THE DUDE (ML=9/2), #1 HUSH HUSH HENNY (ML=6/1),

RESURGENCE - No pace in this clash to help this come from behinder's hopes. ALEX THE DUDE - Never really did much at all last race out on November 6th. Hard to bet on in today's event. HUSH HUSH HENNY - Trying to beat this participant in today's event at the value of 6/1.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #7 RUMBLIN KYLE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST

The King's Swan Handicap

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#1 PETROV
#2 LA CAT WARRIOR
#5 EVEN THUNDER
#4 HOTFOOT

This race honors the career of King's Swan, who was known locally here in New York as "The King of Aqueduct" who was so popular with New York City area fans that on his retirement from racing at age ten, he was honored with a retirement ceremony at Aqueduct Racetrack. He won the Aqueduct Handicap on two occasions. Here in just the 2nd running of this stakes event, #1 PETROV qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and comes of a a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his "first asking." #2 LA CAT WARRIOR also has a nice pace profile, and like my top pick in this race, also comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his respective "first asking." Jockey Angel Arroyo was in his irons for that win, 39 days ago at Belmont Park, and Arroyo is back this afternoon here at "The Big-A" for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips!"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 12/2 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 4,5,7/1,4/6/5,6,7,8/1,2,4,7 = $19.20

EARLY PICK 4: 5,6,7,8/1,2,4,7/9,10/7,8 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 7,8/2,7,9/6,10/3,4,7,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 32 - 125 / $188.60 BEST BETS: 7 - 12 / $22.30

SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 12 / $9.50

Best Bet: LINDWOOD BEACHGIRL (3rd)

Spot Play: QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE (10th)


Race 1

(4) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY qualified well with trotting hopples added and he keeps them on here. He is surely good enough to beat these if he can stay flat. (7) FIVE BELOW trotted a strong uncovered mile last week to just miss. He is an obvious threat. (5) OUR MOJO put in a solid performance making several moves in his return race last week and he is another that can take this contentious opener. (6) CLASS ME NICE should take a smaller share as he is prone to do frequently.

Race 2

(4) MASERATI SEELSTER was one of several leaders in a mile full of action last week and he almost lasted while carving out some solid splits. This race could be less eventful which would help his chances. (1) THINK AGAIN was used up early in the same mile as the choice now he goes for the top barn off the claim; using. (6) SKY GUY also peppered the early pace when it was expected he would be closing from the back. He will likely revert to stalking tactics here and pass some rivals late. (5) SIERRA MADRE took advantage of some wild battling that probably won't materialize this time; minor share predicted.

Race 3

(6) LINWOOD BEACHGIRL should get an honest pace to track again and she should be able to double up off a similar trip as last week. (2) SAYITALL BB drops from the top class which should put her right there vs. these. (3) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK could last longer here with last week's tightener under her belt. (7) REGALLY READY will likely be winding up from the backfield turning for home and she could better this prediction.

Race 4

(6) JIMBELINA raced decently in the Autumn series and she should be tough in here racing on or near the lead. (5) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL motored home in 27 1/5 last week. She wouldn't be the worst stab to take on this card making her third start back off a break. (8) ZEALOUS SEELSTER brings sharp form with her from Flamboro and her good early speed should play well over this track. (7) DRIFT PANIC will put it all together one of these weeks and she will likely pop at a price.

Race 5

(2) LADY PING could mow these down late on the class drop if she can stay flat - which seems to be a 50/50 proposition for her most nights. (1) SECOND SISTER has been racing okay at this class and she could trip out here id she can get away fast enough from the tricky inside post. (4) ADVERSITY should show more here starting from the middle of the gate. (7) RAMAS LAST SON raced decently in this class on October 28th; consider for multi-race bets.

Race 6

(10) BRING ME DIAMONDS went a big trip from an outer post to win last week. The 10-hole should boost her price a bit here; top call. (9) NIPS BEACH GIRL has been showing a ton of early speed in claimers at Pocono; she will have to be caught. (7) SUNSET SARA could show more here at a price coming back in a week and dropping into a claimer. (5) MISS JONES SHOOTER should stick around for a smaller slice here.

Race 7

(7) BERNADETTE may bring a decent price here coming off the shelf but she appears to be ready to roll and she is capable of beating these with the right trip. (8) LADY MARINA peaked in the Autumn series final and she is the one to beat here in her current sharp form. (2) DONTBRUISECARRIE is worth a look here with the switch to trainer Auciello. (10) WASAGA BEACH closed furiously late to take a new life's mark last week but post 10 likely dooms her to a minor share here.

Race 8

(7) GRANA PADANNO left hard from the far outside post last time then he was part of the pace most of the way. He could clear early here and take these all the way. (9) DOMEDOMEDOME drops to a class where she is typically competitive; using. (2) CROWN CLASSIC will be passing rivals late, but it's debatable whether she is close enough to the leaders to threaten for the win. (6) AMITYVILLE LINDY took a ton of action last time then disappointed. He is capable of better and he could wake up in this spot.

Race 9

(6) JUSTABIT MEAN and (10) AINSLEYNOELLE rate highest here on the class drop. I'll give a slight nod to the former based on post position. (7) ARTISTIC MADISON has seen better days, but she could take a smaller share here if she can reproduce the late speed she showed last time. (5) SPORTSILLUSTRATOR has improved in three starts for trainer Gilmour. Keep her in mind for exotic wagers.

Race 10

(4) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE is capable of an upset here if she is sent hard off the gate for position near the front; slight nod. (10) TEMPUS SEELSTER raced great in the Autumn series and she should be a big threat here despite her post. (7) TOP ROYAL rates highly exiting the Autumn series and she has proven that she can take a lot of air and keep going forward; using. (3) DOCS SAUSALITO wasn't far from notching a huge upset last time. She should be good for at least a small share here. (2) NEVER ANY DOUBT is one of the best in here, but she will likely be affected negatively by missing almost a month; minor share predicted.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 12/2 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 51 - 148 / $253.80 (-$42.20)

BEST BETS: 6 - 12 / $15.80 (-$8.20)

Best Bet: SHEEZA SHARK N (5th)

Spot Play: SHEER FLEX (4th)


Race 1

(4) DREAM ROCKER finds a perfect spot this week. Driver Hannah Miller can elect to gun to the front or float away and sit close to the speedy rail horse. (7) STEMILT TOUCH is technically down in class tonight and has a driver who has seen success here. (10) ELLEN’S STREAK is on quite a roll in the Amateur ranks and overcame post 10 a week ago; big threat.

Race 2

(1) OPULENT YANKEE dominated weaker last Friday in his second start off the bench. Five-year-old seems ready to handler the class jump. (3) CAN DO is well spotted in this field and you have to respect his chances. (4) BUDDY HALLY came east to Dover last time for Davis and closed well to be third; worth consideration.

Race 3

(6) ALWAYS FLASH-N shows some good miles on the big track at Vernon while many of these lack success on larger ovals. (8) PAYDAZE ON THE WAY won in this class two starts back. My only concern is what kind of trip he’ll get from the outside post. (1) FORBETTOR OR WORSE ships in sharp from Freehold, but he will need to lower his lifetime mark by multiple seconds to win. (2) LASTLADYSTANDING lured David Miller off my first and third picks.

Race 4

(3) SHEER FLEX wound up first over again last time and still hung around nicely for a solid check. He is sitting on a win and the drop to the basement condition should get him over the top. (2) HALL PASS HELEN gets a good post to work with and faces a mostly dull field. (6) PARIS PRINCESS N looks like the value play in the field. She makes her second start off a break and is more than capable of popping up with a big mile. (4) QUANTUM UPTOWN BOY responded better with an aggressive drive rather than off the pace tactics; switch back this week?

Race 5

(3) SHEEZA SHARK served notice last week with a strong second-place finish that she could be ready to return to the form she had here last April. She gets a class break this time and I’m all in. (5) CLEAR VIEW HANOVER had a perfect trip but came up flat last Friday. Maybe she just had a bad week. (6) KIWI FOCUS N steps up but is in good form now. (1) SNOW CONE A should flash some early speed and get into the bottom of the number.

Race 6

(7) CALL ME RICHARD raced well with the addition of Lasix in his second start for trainer Andrew Harris. A repeat performance or slight move forward should make him tough tonight. (10) TAC’S DELIGHT changes barns after consecutive wins. Veteran has a near 37% career win rate. (1) ULSTER has speed and okay form but has lacked the winning knack of late. (8) DOC has been racing well and adds Tetrick.

Race 7

(6) BULLVILLE MAGGIE is razor sharp right now and just might be able to step up against this tougher bunch. (9) NOT BEFORE EIGHT should in theory have been racing better the last few weeks. She gets a change to Tetrick now and I wouldn’t be shocked if she woke up. (8) WINDSUN GLORY was a solid second last time and looms as a serious threat on Friday.

Race 8

(4) MEADOWBRANCH WENDY took a tour of the track and stayed flat in her first start since August. She is more than capable of winning here and could find early speed tonight. (6) WORLD CUP drops back down to the class where he was second two starts back; obvious danger. (2) MIDFIELD MAGIC is certainly sharp now. (8) MARKET SHARE seems worth a look on the bottom of your exotic tickets.

Race 9

(5) HYWAY MARCUS has breaks in two of his last four starts, which isn’t ideal. That said, there are no killers in this field and he is at a winning level. (6) HES AN AMERICAN closed nicely last time and seems to be in decent form. (7) PEGASUS POINT gets a driver switch to Callahan.

Race 10

(8) CANDY STYX N comes off a big mile a week ago and merits the repeat call. (5) SAM gets a barn and driver change; improvement is likely. (1) PURITY has been a disappointment lately. She can do better. (9) JOYFUL GAME gets a major driver change.

Race 11

(6) B YOYO ships in sharp from Pocono and has performed well in this class in the past. He is very dangerous as a wire-to-wire candidate in this short field. (4) ROCK OF CASHEL spit the bit in deep stretch again but was saved when the winner broke at the wire; obvious exacta player. (1) WAITING ON A WOMAN is off a win and could be sitting the pocket again here.

Race 12

(6) GENTLE JANET was raced conservatively like a 40-1 shot and might have pulled off a huge upset with stretch clearance last time. Barn has done well with these Midwest shippers. (9) TWICE AN ANGEL comes off a solid effort and might get more aggressive in her second start since June. (2) SPORTSMUFFLER was Corey Callahan’s choice over my first two picks. Maybe he knows something I’m missing. (4) PLAY AGAIN gets an interesting driver change. (7) JARNAC should be rallying late for a bottom exotic slot.