Friday 11/27/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Broncos (3-2) at Spartans (5-0)

Date: November 27, 2015 5:00 PM EDT

With Denzel Valentine filling out the stat sheet in historic fashion, Michigan State is showing no weaknesses as it tries to get the most of out a business trip to California.

Coach Tom Izzo, however, is quick to warn the Spartans about the dangers that lie ahead.

After recording a couple of milestones in an impressive opener, No. 3 Michigan State hopes to take another step toward a tournament championship Friday when it takes on Boise State in the second round of the Wooden Legacy on the campus of Cal State Fullerton.

It wasn't long ago when Valentine became the fourth Spartan to record a triple-double with 29 points, 12 rebounds and 12 assists in a 79-73 win over No. 4 Kansas in Chicago on Nov 17.

While playing in front of one of those former stars, the senior guard had 29 points, 11 boards and 10 assists in Thursday's 99-68 first-round win over Boston College. He joined Magic Johnson (eight) and Draymond Green (three) as the school's only players to accomplish that feat more than once.

Green, who now plays for Golden State, attended the contest on his way to Phoenix for the Warriors' next game and even received a high-five from Valentine after a dunk.

"(Green and Valentine are) similar players in these respects: unselfishness, winning more than focusing on individual stats, they're both great leaders," said Izzo after his 500th career win.

The Spartans (5-0) reached season highs in points, assists (28), field-goal percentage (62.7) and 3-point percentage (11 for 21) while committing only seven turnovers. They rank near the top among Big Ten teams with 88.2 points, 52.6 percent shooting and a 42.6 mark from beyond the arc.

Michigan State has been nearly as impressive defensively, limiting opponents to 61.4 points and a 36.9 field-goal percentage - including just 27.6 percent from 3-point range. Boston College, however, became the first opponent to shoot better than 37 percent against the Spartans at 47.3.

Although Eagles coach Jimmy Christian referred to Michigan State as the best team in the country, Izzo isn't quite ready to agree with that assessment just five games into the season.

"We're playing good right now, and I told my guys we'll see how we handle that early success," he said. "Now we're going from hunting to being hunted. Teams are going to give us their best game. What impresses me is that I believe we still have a higher ceiling that we can reach."

Boise State (3-2) hopes to give the Spartans its best shot after opening the tournament with a 71-64 victory over UC Irvine on Thursday. Anthony Drmic led the way with 21 points, while Nick Duncan scored 14 and Chandler Hutchinson added 13 points and 10 rebounds.

Drmic seemed to be fine after missing Monday's 100-53 win over NAIA Concordia due to a knee injury. The senior swingman is averaging 18.8 points while hitting 15 of 33 (45.5) from beyond the arc.

"The rest was nice," Drmic said. "It was good for my knee to get those couple days off."

The Broncos have lived and died from the 3-point line, shooting 35 for 81 (43.2 percent) in victories and 18 of 56 (32.1) in their defeats. Duncan hit four 3s as they went 11 for 28 against the Anteaters.

Boise State has dropped two all-time meetings, most recently a 74-70 road loss in November 2012.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cornhuskers (4-1) at Bearcats (5-0)

Date: November 27, 2015 6:30 PM EDT

Cincinnati cruised during the first 10 days of the season before finally being tested its last time out.

The 24th-ranked Bearcats seem to be in for another challenge this weekend in the Barclays Center Classic in Brooklyn, starting with Friday night's matchup against a Nebraska team that won last season's meeting in double overtime.

The Bearcats (5-0) won their first four games by an average of 42.3 points to move into the Top 25 for the first time in two seasons Monday, but they found themselves leading by three midway through the second half the next night against visiting Southeastern Louisiana.

Cincinnati was able to pull out a 64-49 win thanks to a closing 15-7 run, though it shot a season-low 40.7 percent and was held 32.3 points below its season average.

"We had not been in a game, so it's good for us to get in a little bit of a game, maybe wake our guys up a little bit," coach Mick Cronin said. "We're not very tough right now. Things have been too easy for us, way too easy for us."

That wasn't the case in Nebraska last season. The Bearcats beat the visiting Cornhuskers 74-59 in December 2013 before traveling to Lincoln last December and losing 56-55 in double OT.

"As bad as (Tuesday) was, I think it gives us a chance on Friday because Nebraska has been in a game at Villanova in that little pavilion," Cronin told the school's official website. " ... I really believe that we would have been in deep trouble Friday if we had not been in some sort of a game, not that I'm happy. That's the only thing that gives me joy tonight."

The visit to then-No. 11 Villanova resulted an 87-63 loss Nov. 17. The Cornhuskers (4-1) have since won three in a row after beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-44 on Tuesday.

They shot 38.2 percent and went 2 of 19 from 3-point range for the game but were able to build an 18-point halftime lead by holding the Golden Lions to 16 points.

Freshman Glynn Watson Jr. provided a spark off the bench by hitting a 3-pointer and adding three assists during a 15-3 spurt to close the first half.

"That was a good opportunity for him to kind of lead the team, lead the bunch," said guard Andrew White III, who led the Huskers with 16 points. "When you're the point guard, the ball is in your hands. I think he made good decisions. I think he grew up a little bit before our eyes."

Shavon Shields was the only other Husker in double figures with 15 points, and he scored 13 in last season's meeting with Cincinnati. Troy Caupain had 13 points for the Bearcats in that matchup and scored a season-high 15 on Tuesday.

Nebraska has lost seven in row against ranked teams and is 64-240 all-time in such matchups.

"We'll be ready for Cincinnati and if we're not it is going to be a bloodbath. It will not be pretty because they are a very talented team," coach Tim Miles said. " ... Their press is really difficult to go against. I would say it's like Villanova's on steroids. They stay on you and make it a very physical game. That will be great for this team to see who steps up to the challenge."

Friday's winner will face George Washington (5-0) or Tennessee (4-1) in the championship game Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hawkeyes (3-1) at Fighting Irish (3-1)

Date: November 27, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

An early season tournament title might not have been a huge concern of Notre Dame's coming into the season, but now it's not an option.

Same goes for Iowa.

Instead, it's onto consolation play maybe a little earlier than anticipated Friday night in the AdvoCare Invitational in Orlando, and it's the 17th-ranked Fighting Irish looking to overcome a bit of an upset.

Notre Dame (3-1) opened the tournament with a 70-68 loss to Monmouth Thursday. However, the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Hawks aren't exactly slouches - they've won at UCLA and Drexel and played USC tough in Los Angeles - and Irish coach Mike Brey is leaving it at that.

"They're a good team than can win their league," Brey said. "We lost to a good team."

The Hawkeyes (3-1) title shot was also a one-day thing, falling 82-77 Thursday to a Dayton team that's had plenty of NCAA Tournament success the past two seasons.

"Our offense didn't move smoothly at all first half," coach Fran McCaffery said. "The start of the second half, it got away from us a little bit. A couple goofy plays. But the last 14 minutes I thought execution offensively was tremendous. We had great looks at the basket."

And they hit many of them. Iowa went 12 of 24 from 3-point range, but after overcoming a 14-point second-half deficit for a four-point lead, things again went south.

"The last 14 minutes, our execution offensively was tremendous," McCaffery told the school's official website. "I was proud of our guys for how they managed the game and clock and we were able to get the lead.

"We were up four after being down 14. We got some great looks again, but didn't convert, and they did. You have to give them credit."

The Hawkeyes are shooting 48.6 percent from beyond the arc in their last three, and that could come into play against a Notre Dame team that's allowed opponents to hit 30 of 61 from outside in its last three.

Iowa's Jarrod Uthoff made four of Iowa's 12 3s on seven chances Thursday on his way to a team-high 18 points, and the senior forward is averaging 16.8 while connecting on 9 of 18 from long range.

For Notre Dame, Demetrius Jackson scored 20 against Monmouth, and the junior guard is averaging 20.5 on 58.2 percent and 8 for 19 from 3 in his first four games as the team's go-to option on offense after the departures of Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton.

It sounds like Brey will continue to look to guard-heavy sets for offensive production.

"Our best flow came when we played small," he said. "That group has to continue to â?¦ be more efficient offensively, because that hurt us early in the half. They're going to play a lot of minutes together. Our efficiency on that end - we could've used more because you're just not going to stop them. They're really a tough offensive group to deal with."

Iowa's lost 20 of its last 25 games against the Top 25, though the last time the schools met, it was the Hawkeyes in the rankings. On Dec. 3, 2013, they beat the Irish 98-93 in Iowa, and another high-scoring affair could be in order.

The Hawkeyes are averaging 86.3 points per game and shooting 49.0 percent, while Notre Dame is at 81.0 and 47.0. Of the 346 Division I teams, Iowa ranks 26th in scoring since the start of 2013-14 (76.1) and Notre Dame is 31st (75.6).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hokies (3-1) at Cyclones (3-0)

Date: November 27, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Iowa State has looked comfortable in its own gym, especially behind the 3-point arc in its latest game, but it was a different story in its only game away from home.

The fourth-ranked Cyclones will try for a better performance in northwest Florida for the Emerald Coast Classic, including the opener against Virginia Tech on Friday night.

Iowa State (3-0) has been at home for its last two games and won them by a combined 62 points while shooting 54.8 percent, going 14 of 29 from long range in an 83-63 victory over Chattanooga on Monday.

Nazareth Mitrou-Long made six 3-pointers en route to a team-best 24 points. Georges Niang scored 19 points, and Jameel McKay had a career-high 17 rebounds.

"We really shot the 3 well. We hadn't done that extremely well in the first two games. But this team's offense is very capable of doing a lot of special things," coach Steve Prohm said.

Iowa State shot 44.6 percent in its season opener Nov. 13 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and went 2 for 10 from beyond the arc in a 68-62 win over Colorado.

The Cyclones will get two more neutral-site games this weekend in Niceville, Florida, and they will either face Illinois on Saturday or get a rematch with UAB. The Blazers upset third-seeded Iowa State 60-59 in the second round of last season's NCAA Tournament.

"The last time we looked ahead, UAB snubbed us. We'll just take Tech first and, we know who we want, but we'll (focus on) Tech first," Niang said.

The Hokies have won three in a row since an 85-82 loss to Alabama State in its season opener. Zach LeDay matched his career high with 26 points and had 12 rebounds in a 90-60 rout of North Carolina A&T on Tuesday.

The junior forward, averaging 20.0 points and 11.5 boards, had 26 points and 15 rebounds in the upset loss to Alabama State in his Virginia Tech debut after transferring from South Florida.

The Hokies (3-1) have lost 17 in a row to ranked teams since beating No. 15 Oklahoma State on Dec. 1, 2012.

With only two days off since last playing, coach Buzz Williams knows his team will have a tough time halting that drought.

"I think all coaches would say that they would like more time (to prepare)," Williams said. "I think when you're playing a team that's potentially good enough to beat Kansas in the Big 12 regular season and a team with the talent that they have, you always want more time. But you can't change it. We'll see where we stack up."

McKay signed with Williams' Marquette team before the 2013-14 season after playing in junior college but transferred without appearing in a game. Cyclones junior guard Deonte Burton also played for Williams in 2013-14 but is forced to sit out until next month following his transfer last season.

Williams beat Prohm in the only matchup between the coaches in the 2011 NCAA Tournament, leading Marquette to a 62-53 win over Murray State.

"His teams are known for their toughness, the way they compete with their resiliency. They play extremely hard," Prohm said.

Virginia Tech won its only other matchup against Iowa State 80-53 on Dec. 14, 1984, in Knoxville, Tennessee.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Golden Bears (4-1) at Spiders (3-2)

Date: November 27, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

A second-half collapse combined with its worst shooting performance of the season have California looking for its first bounce-back effort.

Richmond can surely empathize.

The No. 14 Golden Bears face the Spiders in a matchup of teams looking to regain their scoring touch in the consolation game of the Las Vegas Invitational on Friday night.

California (4-1) averaged 85.3 points and shot 48.9 percent while barely being challenged through its first four games. That changed Thursday when the Golden Bears connected on a season-low 37.5 percent of their shots and squandered a 15-point second-half lead to fall 72-58 to San Diego State.

Tyrone Wallace and Jordan Mathews are among the Golden Bears looking for redemption after the starting guards combined to shoot 11 for 31 for 26 points with just three assists and seven of the team's 15 turnovers.

Despite the subpar effort, Wallace leads Cal with 19.4 points per game and is shooting 54.5 percent from the field, while Mathews has put up an average of 12.6 points.

Ivan Rabb was one of the Golden Bears' few bright spots against the Aztecs, scoring a season-high 18 points with nine rebounds. The freshman forward is averaging 13.2 points and 8.6 boards while starting each of his first five games.

Richmond (3-2) averages 84.4 points while hitting 50.2 percent from the floor and 36.8 from beyond the arc. However - like Cal - the Spiders' three-game winning streak ended with their worst shooting effort of the season.

They converted just 39.1 percent of their shots, including 2 of 15 from 3-point range, in Thursday's 67-59 loss to West Virginia.

Still, coach Chris Mooney came away encouraged.

"I thought that our effort and toughness were tremendous," he told the team's website. "We responded to each one of their runs, and played with a lot of heart. We needed just a few more shots to fall to get us over that hump at different points in the game.

"We're a good shooting team that missed shots. I couldn't be more proud of our effort."

Terry Allen continues to do his part while leading the team with 19.8 points per game. The senior forward scored 20 points against the Mountaineers, sinking 5 of 10 shots and 10 of 12 free throws. That came five days after he scored 25 points and grabbed 13 rebounds with five assists in an 89-64 win over Bethune-Cookman.

T.J. Cline had 14 points in that matchup but followed it with a season-low five while going 2 for 4 from the floor and 1 for 4 at the line Thursday. The junior forward had at least eight field-goal attempts in each of the previous four games.

The Spiders have won their last two meetings with ranked opponents but both came last season against VCU. They've dropped their last four against Top 25 teams from outside the Atlantic 10.

This is the second meeting after the Golden Bears won the first in December 1993.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Friars (5-0) at Wildcats (5-0)

Date: November 27, 2015 11:30 PM EDT

One or two plays could have easily kept Arizona from a semifinal everybody expected it to reach in a walk, but the 11th-ranked Wildcats avoided a dose of deja vu and will continue their bid for an early-season championship.

Arizona has a quick turnaround after a close call in the DirecTV Wooden Legacy when it meets Providence in Friday night's semis on the campus of Cal State-Fullerton.

The Wildcats (5-0) struggled against winless Santa Clara in Thursday's opening round, which may sound familiar since Steve Nash's Broncos were just the second No. 15 seed to beat a No. 2 when they upset Arizona to open the 1993 NCAA Tournament.

Arizona avoided a similar shocker when Gabe York brushed off a 1-of-12 shooting effort in regulation with seven of his 11 points coming in overtime of a 75-73 win. The Wildcats narrowly avoided their first November loss since 2011.

"We got a heavy dose of a lot of lessons," said coach Sean Miller, whose team won its opening four home games by an average of 19.8 points.

The last time Arizona faced Providence was in the regional finals at the 1997 NCAAs, winning 96-92 in overtime to advance to one of the school's four Final Fours en route to its only national championship.

The stakes aren't nearly as high this time, but a win for the Wildcats could wash away the bad taste of a middling performance against Santa Clara.

They blew a 17-point first-half lead, committed a season-high 17 turnovers, made just 3 of 22 shots from 3-point range and hit 14 of 20 free throws. The Broncos shot 43.4 percent - a season high for an Arizona opponent - and went 10 of 26 from long range.

"We have such a long way to go on defense it's not even close," Miller said.

The Wildcats couldn't contain Santa Clara's Jared Brownridge, who torched them for a tournament-record 44 points, surpassing James Harden's 40 set with Arizona State in 2008.

"He put 44 on us and it wasn't like we weren't trying," Miller said. "It's not just 44, it's 44 out of 73. That's a lot of points in the college game, especially that ratio."

Arizona will draw another defensive test against Providence (5-0).

Kris Dunn is the Friars' main threat after he passed up on the NBA draft in June as a potential lottery pick. He was tabbed a preseason top 50 candidate for the Wooden Award for his ability to make a massive impact on both ends of the floor.

Dunn leads the Friars with 18.6 points per game, and he stacks the scorebook with 7.4 rebounds, 6.4 assists and 4.8 steals. He's followed in scoring by Rodney Bullock (16.0 points per game) and Ben Bentil (15.6), who poured in a career-high 24 in a 74-64 semifinal win over Evansville on Thursday.

More bad news from Arizona's tight win over Santa Clara was an aggravated injury to senior Kaleb Tarczewski. Miller said his 7-foot center has been bothered by injuries to both his ankles, and he reinjured one of them.

"I don't know the severity, but certainly that's not good," Miller said.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Golden Bears (4-1) at Aztecs (4-2)

Date: November 27, 2015 12:00 AM EDT

California has only faced inferior opponents and shouldn't see a ranked one until the week of Christmas. Thanksgiving, though, won't be for just sitting back and relaxing.

The 14th-ranked Golden Bears know a big step-up in competition comes Thursday night against San Diego State in the Las Vegas Invitational, and even if they get through this one unscathed, another test looms the following day.

"I'm excited to go to Vegas and see what we're made of," Cal freshman Jaylen Brown said. "We've been preparing all week and all season. All the suicides, yelling, screaming and encouragement, this is what it's for."

The four teams California (4-0) has played are mid-major programs with a combined 4-11 record. The only Top 25 foe on the schedule before Pac-12 play is No. 12 Virginia on Dec. 22.

San Diego State (3-2) isn't off to a particularly strong start, but coach Steve Fisher's squad has appeared in the last six NCAA Tournaments and was picked to win the Mountain West.

Additionally, the Aztecs were much better than the Bears against East Carolina - the teams' lone common opponent as part of this event. Cal never led by more than 11 points and was ahead by only three with under two minutes left in a 70-62 victory Friday. Three nights later, San Diego State scored the game's first 16 points against the Pirates and were never threatened in a 79-54 win.

The only time the Aztecs allowed more than 61 points was a road loss to then-No. 16 Utah on Nov. 16, and they've yet to let an opponent shoot better than 40.0 percent.

"They're physical, athletic and long and always one of the better defensive teams in the country," said Cal coach Cuonzo Martin, who added that SDSU's defensive prowess is "the sign of an elite basketball team."

Another good one awaits both teams Friday in the final or consolation game. West Virginia is 4-0 after reaching the NCAA Tournament regional semifinals last season, and Richmond's 3-1 record includes a road win over Wake Forest.

"It's going to be a huge weekend for us," Fisher said. "Thanksgiving night with Cal, a legitimate top-10 team, and either West Virginia or Richmond, who are both very, very good, so we're excited to be playing two teams of high caliber. I like the disposition and attitude of our team."

Fisher's biggest challenge Thursday is cooling a Cal offense scoring 85.3 points per game behind three longtime starting guards and two talented freshman big men.

Fourth-year starter Tyrone Wallace is averaging 20.3 points and 5.5 assists while shooting 60.4 percent. Jordan Mathews is 9 of 19 from 3-point range after leading the Pac-12 at 44.3 percent last season, and fellow junior Jabari Bird has scored in double figures in every game.

As for the newcomers, Brown has posted back-to-back double-doubles and is averaging 16.3 points. Eighteen-year-old Ivan Rabb also has two double-doubles and averages a team-high 8.5 rebounds.

"They've got a nice infusion of youthfulness in those two freshmen and veteran players," Fisher said. "... They're going to run like crazy. They score points in bunches."

Fisher's offense got a spark from some lineup changes Monday following a listless 49-43 home loss to Arkansas Little-Rock on Saturday.

Senior Winston Shepard went scoreless in that defeat, then came off the bench for the first time since 2013 and responded with 16 points. Highly touted freshman Zylan Cheatham had nine points and eight rebounds in his first start, and junior Dakarai Allen scored in double figures for the fourth time in five games in his third career start.

Freshman Jeremy Hemsley leads the team with 13.6 points and 3.2 assists per game.

The Aztecs lead the all-time series 5-4 and won the last two meetings, most recently in 2011.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Friday's games..........

Ohio State has already lost at home to Tex-Arlington, La Tech; best team they've beaten is #217 Mt St Mary's; Buckeyes have played a very easy (#343) schedule so far- they're #345 in experience. Memphis just lost at home to Tex-Arlington too; Tigers are shooting 21.4% from arc during a 2-2 start- their wins are over stiffs. AAC underdogs are 7-4 vs spread. .

Disney World tournament
Alabama has new coach, is 2-2, losing by 32-19; their best win was over UL-Lafayette. Crimson Tide didn't play anyone more than 26:00 in loss to Xavier. Wichita State star VanVleet (hamstring) is out here; Shockers lost by 3 yesterday, playing Baker 39:00. USC shot 12-23 from the arc against them. Missouri Valley favorites are 3-13 vs spread this month.

Notre Dame played four starters 32:00+ yesterday; they forced only six turnovers against #116 Monmouth, best team they've played so far this month. Irish have #58 eFG%, are making 37.8% on arc. Iowa is 3-1 after 82-77 loss to Dayton; Hawkeyes are shooting 43.9% from arc- they used two starters 31:00+ Thursday- they start four seniors and a junior.

Xavier is 5-0, beating Missouri by 12, Michigan by 16, in its only road game so far; they are a top 25 rebounding team nationally, but they got off to horrible start vs Bama yesterday. USC is off to first 5-0 start in 15 years, scoring 92.5 ppg; they're shooting 42.0% behind the arc (12-23 vs Wichita). Xavier played seven guys 20:00+, only one guy 30:00+.

Monmouth beat UCLA in Westwood, beat Notre Dame yesterday, as PG Robinson was 14-15 on foul line and controlled game. Hawks scored 81.5 ppg so far this month. Dayton is 4-0, winning NCAA-style game over Iowa last nite. Flyers have turned ball over 23.3% of time- they're a young team that is playing bench a lot (36.3%). Three of four Dayton opponents are ranked #103 or better. .

Atlantis tournament
Gonzaga hadn't played a close game until yesterday- they were 4-11 on foul line in 62-61 loss that seemed like an NCAA tourney game. UConn lost to Syracuse by 3 yesterday, they played three starters 32:00+ and Hamilton played 42:00. Zags have #2 eFG% defense in country- they're loaded up front but guards didn't get big guys a touch on last possession in loss to Aggies yesterday.

Texas A&M won first two games in tourney by total of four points; they start three seniors; they used two guys more than 28:00. Aggies aren't taking lot of 3's but they're making 45.5% of them (#7). Syracuse isn't as big as usual but they've got better shooters now- they made 23-48 in first two days here. Orangemen aren't deep; four guys played 32:00+ Thurs.

Michigan pounded on overmatched Charlotte by 55 yesterday, so guys got lot of rest. Wolverines were 12-23 on arc, are shooting 42.2% on arc this month. Texas avenged loss to Washington in China- they got to line 42 times yesterday. Texas isn't pressing as much as the VCU teams did for Smart; they start four seniors, two of which are 6-10. Michigan is #37 at protecting ball, so probably just as well.

Fullerton tournament
UC-Irvine is 4-1 after Boise made 11-28 on arc yesterday; teams came in shooting 22.8% from arc vs UCI. 7-6 C Ndiaye clogs up middle, so you have to shoot well from arc to score on Irvine. Boston College is shooting 39.6% from arc so far; they lost by 31 yesterday to Mich State- Eagles start a couple freshmen- only two guys played more than 23:00 vs MSU.

Michigan State won first five games, beating Kansas 79-73 on a neutral floor; Spartans crushed BC yesterday, getting Izzo win #500- they used two guys more than 21:00 vs BC. Boise made 11-28 on arc vs Cal-Irvine- they're 2-2 vs D-I teams, losing to Montana/Arizona. Big 14 favorites are 6-8 vs spread on neutral floors. Mountain West dogs are 10-4 vs spread.

Providence plays almost all frosh/sophs except for star G Dunn, one of best players in country; Friars are forcing turnovers 24.8% of time- they outscored Evansville 23-5 on line in comfortable win last nite. Arizona was life/death to beat 0-6 Santa Clara; Brownridge had 44 on Wildcats and made it look easy. Most people would take Dunn over Brownridge.

Orleans Arena tournament
Richmond won three of last four games, upsetting Wake Forest 91-82 but going 21-35 on line in loss last nite- West Virginia made them go faster than they wanted to. Cal Bears lost for first time last night after leading by 7 at half; they're starting two freshmen, aren't forcing many turnovers. Pac-12 favorites are 17-16 vs spread. Atlantic 14 underdogs are 9-6.

West Virginia is off to 5-0 start, with best two wins over James Madison, Richmond- Spiders turned ball over 14 times (21.9%), after WVa forced turnovers 31.6% of time in first four games. San Diego State is 4-2 after coming back from down 7 at half to beat Cal, a solid win. This will be a very physical game with lot of bricks; WVa is #1 offensive rebounding team in country. Aztecs played six guys 25:00+ last night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB | UAB at ILLINOIS
Play On - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (UAB) good ball handling team from last season - committed <=14 turnovers/game, after a game forcing opponent to commit 8 or less turnovers
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.2 units )

CBB | CHICAGO ST at JACKSONVILLE ST
Play On - Neutral court teams (JACKSONVILLE ST) excellent ball handling team - committing <=12 turnovers/game, after 4 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers
219-138 since 1997. ( 61.3% | 72.8 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 2.0 units )

CBB | JAMES MADISON at MARSHALL
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 good 3 point shooting team - making >=37% of their attempts, in November games
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards

**Iowa at Nebraska**

-- As of early Thursday night, most betting shops had Iowa (11-0 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) installed as a two-point favorite with a total of 58.

-- Iowa has failed to cover the number in consecutive contests and three of its last four. Kirk Ferentz’s team beat Purdue last Saturday 40-20 as a 23-point home favorite. The 60 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 53.5-point total. The Hawkeyes were never able to get ahead of the number, holding their biggest lead at 20-0 early in the second quarter. C.J. Beathard threw for 213 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Jordan Canzeri rushed 13 times for 95 yards and one TD, while LeShun Daniels had eight carries for 31 yards and two TDs.

-- Beathard has connected on 61.0 percent of his throws for 2,257 yards with a 13/3 TD-INT ratio. Beathard hasn’t been intercepted in four straight games. He also has 280 rushing yards and six TDs.

-- Canzeri has run for a team-best 824 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. The senior RB also has 18 receptions for 196 yards and one TD. Daniels has 590 rushing yards and eight TDs with a 4.8 YPC average. Matt VandeBerg leads the Hawkeyes in receiving with 56 grabs for 594 yards and three TDs. TE George Kittle has a team-best five TD catches.

-- Iowa has been perfect on the road all season long, going 4-0 both SU and ATS. The Hawks are 3-0 ATS as road ‘chalk’ this season and have taken the cash in nine consecutive such spots going back to late in the 2011 regular season.

-- Nebraska (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won back-to-back games both SU and ATS since falling to 3-6 in a humiliating 55-45 loss at Purdue. The Cornhuskers handed Michigan St. its lone loss of the season by capturing a 39-38 win on Nov. 7. They won outright as 3.5-point underdogs thanks to Tommy Armstrong Jr.’s 30-yard touchdown pass to Brandon Reilly with 17 seconds remaining. Armstrong threw for 320 yards and two TDs and also ran for a pair of scores. On Reilly’s TD catch in the waning seconds, he came from out of bounds back into play before making the catch. The officials ruled that Reilly was forced out by a defender, a ruling that was upheld on review.

-- Mike Riley’s team won a 31-14 decision at Rutgers as a 7.5-point road favorite its last time out two weeks ago. Armstrong threw for 188 yards and three TDs, but he was intercepted three times. Imani Cross rushed for a team-high 90 yards on 20 carries, while Nate Gerry and Chris Jones.

-- This has been an inauspicious start to Riley’s tenure to say the least. There’s no way to sugarcoat that, but we’ll nonetheless point out five one-possession defeats, including one on a Hail Mary in the opener vs. BYU. Nebraska lost to the Cougars, 33-28. The other four close setbacks came by eight combined points.

-- Armstrong has completed 54.7 percent of his passes for 2,560 yards with a 21/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The junior signal caller has also rushed for 278 yards and six TDs. Terrell Newby has run for a team-high 709 yards and five TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Jordan Westerkamp has a team-high 61 receptions for 833 yards and seven TDs, while Reilly has 34 catches for 666 yards and four TDs.

-- Nebraska has compiled a 3-3 record both SU and ATS in six home games this year. The Cornhuskers have been home underdogs twice this year, going 2-0 ATS with the outright win over the Spartans. Going back to 2005, Nebraska owns a 6-3 spread record as a home ‘dog.

-- This is a revenge game for Iowa, which lost at home to Nebraska by a 37-34 count in overtime last season. The Cornhuskers took the cash as one-point underdogs. Armstrong threw for 202 yards and four TDs, including the game winner on a nine-yard scoring strike to Kenny Bell to end the game.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-3-1 overall for Iowa, 2-1-1 in its last four outings. The Hawkeyes have seen their games average a combined score of 52.7 points per game.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for Nebraska, 4-2 in its home games. The Cornhuskers had seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight games until the ‘under’ hit in their win at RU two weeks ago. Their games have averaged a combined score of 61.4 PPG.

-- ABC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**Baylor at TCU**

-- As of early Thursday night, most spots had TCU (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) listed as a 1.5-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 78.5 points.

-- Baylor (9-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) bounced back nicely from its first loss of the season by beating Oklahoma St. 45-35 as a three-point road favorite. The 80 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 76-point total. Jarrett Stidham, the highly-touted true freshman QB who had become the starter when Seth Russell went down with a season-ending injury, sustained a broken ankle in Stillwater to force Art Briles to turn to his third-string signal caller. That was Chris Johnson, a third-year sophomore who threw for 138 and two TDs with one interception. Shock Linwood rushed 20 times for 91 yards and one TD, while Johnson ran for 42 yards and one TD on six attempts. K.D. Cannon hauled in five receptions for 210 yards and two TDs.

-- Johnson took a redshirt in 2013 when he arrived in Waco. In 2014, he appeared in four games, completing all four of his passes for 45 yards. He rushed four times for 29 yards. Johnson had played sparingly at WR this season, making three catches for 37 yards before the QB position began coping with injuries. He will be making his first career start at QB against the Horned Frogs.

-- Linwood has run for a team-best 1,240 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 7.1 YPC. He also has eight catches for 56 yards and one TD. However, Linwood is ‘questionable’ at TCU due to a knee injury. In addition, TE Gus Penning (5 catches for 101 yards) is ‘questionable,’ while DT Beau Blackshear is ‘doubtful’ due to an undisclosed injury. Finally, starting safety Orion Stewart is ‘questionable’ due to a hamstring injury. Stewart has 48 tackles, one sack and one forced fumble this year, while Blackshear has 22 tackles, four tackles for loss and one forced fumble.

-- Corey Coleman has a team-high 66 receptions for 1,306 yards and 20 TDs for the Bears. Cannon has 39 catches for 774 yards and six TDs, while Jay Lee has 34 grabs for 714 yards and eight TDs.

-- TCU nearly climbed back into CFP contention in Norman last weekend, but a brilliant fourth-quarter comeback came up short on a two-point conversion play. With star QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Trevone Boykin sidelined by an injury, Gary Patterson’s team found itself trailing Oklahoma 30-13 with nine minutes remaining. But back-up QB Bram Kohlhausen found KaVontae Turpin for an 86-yard scoring strike. With 6:27 left, TCU cut the deficit to 30-23 with a 43-yard field goal. Then with 51 seconds remaining, Kohlhausen hit Emanuel Porter for a 14-yard TD pass. Patterson elected to go for two even though OU’s star QB Baker Mayfield had been knocked out of the game with a concussion. Kohlhausen scrambled to his right on the two-point try and a receiver broke open. On the run, Kohlhausen lobbed the pass to an open target but an OU defender made a great play to knock the ball away.

-- Boykin has been upgraded to ‘probable’ and is expected to start against the Bears. Boykin has connected on 65.7 percent of his passes for 3,426 yards with a 29/9 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 596 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Aaron Green paces TCU in rushing with 1,099 yards and 10 TDs. Green averages 5.4 YPC.

-- TCU has been crippled by injuries as much any team in the country. Star WR Josh Doctson, who has made 78 receptions for 1,326 yards and 14 TDs, didn’t play against Oklahoma St. and is out for the rest of the regular season. Doctson is now the ninth starter out for the season, though he has a chance to return the bowl game. Another starter, senior center Joey Hunt, a second-team All Big-12 selection in 2014, is ‘out’ vs. Baylor. Another starting offensive lineman, OG Jamelle Naff, is listed as ‘questionable.’ -- The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for TCU, 3-2 in its home games. The Horned Frogs have had average combined scores of 69.5 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 7-3 overall for Baylor, 2-2 in its four true road assignments.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Tech Trends - Week 13
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, Nov. 27

Matchup Skinny Edge

MARSHALL at WESTERN KENTUCKY
Herd 9-4 vs. line last 13 away from home. Revenge vs. WKU for dealing Herd its only SU loss last season. Tops 5-1 vs. line last six at Bowling Green, though just 1-3 vs. line last four overall this season.

Slight to Marshall, based on team trends.


IOWA at NEBRASKA
Hawkeyes have covered last 5 as visitor since late 2014. Ferentz has also covered eight straight as visiting chalk. Huskers just 2-4 vs. line at home TY but is 2-1 as dog and Riley had many good dog marks at OSU (25-12 from 2008-13 before fading to 1-5 in role LY).

Iowa, based on team trends.


MIAMI-FLA. at PITT
Pitt 1-4 vs. line at Heinz Field TY and 3-8 last eleven vs. spread at home, but did win at Miami LY. Canes just 2-8 last ten as dog.

Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.


UMASS at BUFFALO
Buff fading no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 TY. Bulls still 6-2 as home dog since 2013, however. UB won last 3 and covered last 2 vs. Mass. Minutemen 1-5 vs. line last six TY, and 1-5 last six vs. spread away. Last Mass MAC game?

Buffalo, based on team and series trends.


KENT STATE at AKRON
Very nearby teams. Kent 12-3 vs. spread last 15 as MAC visitor (2-1 TY), and is 4-1 SU last five vs. Zips. Bowden only 2-6-1 last nine vs. spread at InfoCision.

Kent State, based on team trends.


TROY at GEORGIA STATE
Road team 8-1-1 vs. line in GS games this season, though Panthers 4-0-1 vs. spread last four. Troy has covered last 4 on road TY.

Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at TOLEDO
Rockets 8-1-1 vs. line TY after BG win. Rockets have won last 5 SU in series but only 2-2 vs. line last four. Broncs 6-5 vs. line TY and 10-4 last 14 as visiting dog

Toledo, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CMU has won and covered last three meetings. Chips 8-2-1 vs. line TY, 21-9-1 last 31 on board. EMU no covers last 6 or 8 of last 9 TY.

CMU, based on team and series trends.


MISSOURI at ARKANSAS
Hogs 5-2 SU and vs. line last seven TY, and Bielema on 16-7 spread run since early 2014. Pinkel 3-8 vs. line TY.

Arkansas, based on recent trends.


NAVY at HOUSTON
Navy 8-2 vs. line TY, 8-3 last 11 as dog. Mids 24-9 as visiting dog since 2006. UH no covers last three this season, and while road spread mark sparkles, Cougs only 4-9 vs. spread at their new home stadium since it opened last season.

Navy, based on team trends.


TULSA at TULANE
Tulsa 5-0 vs. line away TY, 8-1 last nine in role, and road team 10-1 vs. line in Tulsa games TY.

Tulsa, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at WASHINGTON
Apple Cup! Leach has covered last eight this season and is 13-3 vs. spread last 16 as visitor.

WSU, based on team and "totals" trends.


OREGON STATE at OREGON
Civil War! OSU no SU wins in Civil War since 2007, just 3-7 vs. line last ten vs. Ducks. Beavs 4-19 vs. spread since 2014. Ducks have won and covered five in a row TY.

Oregon, based on team trends.


BOISE STATE at SAN JOSE STATE
First meeting since WAC days of 2010. Boise 1-4 vs. line last five TY, 2-3 vs. line away. Spartans 4-1 vs. spread as host TY, 6-3 last nine as home dog.

Slight to San Jose, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at TCU
Patterson 4-1 vs. line against Briles the past five seasons.

Slight to TCU, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Post: 2:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$6000 - NON-WINNERS $5,000 LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $1000 AE:NON-WINNERS 8 EXTENDED PM RACES LIFE. OPT. CLAIM $15,000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 CAPTAIN PRIMEAU 5/1


# 5 KEENAN 7/1


# 3 CHOCOLATE DELIGHT 3/1


Hard not to like CAPTAIN PRIMEAU as the top choice in here. Smith knows this harness racer well. Outstanding in the money results when in the race bike. KEENAN - The panel of smart guys always likes a proven player. This horse's high winning percentage is evidence of that. Comp pace figs say this affair should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. CHOCOLATE DELIGHT - He has been racing competitively and the TrackMaster SRs are among the most favorable in the group of animals. Enters this contest with formidable TrackMaster class ratings relative to the bunch - could be worth a shot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 8:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$7000 - N/W $5,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN N/W $7,500 LAST START INELIGIBLE ***HI 5 CARRYOVER: $14,471.87***


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 KEYSTONE THOMAS 7/2


# 8 THANKYOUKESSEL 8/1


# 5 CELEBRITY COWBOY 12/1


All signs point to KEYSTONE THOMAS for the contender. Not many knocks against this entrant, let's give him a shot. Has one of the most competitive win pcts in the group of horses and may be able to add to those numbers today. Post 6 has been winning at a much higher than average pct, suggesting really strong probability of success in this one. THANKYOUKESSEL - He looks great in this race and should find a way to take advantage of favorable pace numbers. CELEBRITY COWBOY - His 89 average has this gelding among the most favorable TrackMaster speed figs for this race. The consortium gives this race horse a respectable chance to come home a winner, class figures are tops in the group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 89

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 NILEATOR 3/1


# 1 DREAM IT AGAIN 5/2


# 2 DOGTOWN 6/1


NILEATOR looks competitive to best this field. Has strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager for this event. Jockey's recent ROI figures make this colt a strong bet. With a respectable 85 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this race. DREAM IT AGAIN - Recorded a very good Equibase Speed Figure last time out. DOGTOWN - Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt route events in this field of horses. Murgia has recent ROI numbers which make this entrant a strong bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 27 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 10 QUIET DANGER 12/1


# 7 JUST ACE 4/1


# 3 MI AMORE 2/1


QUIET DANGER looks very good to best this group of horses in this race and is a decent value bet given the line at 12/1. With a nice class fig average of 90, has one of the best class advantages in this field. JUST ACE - Should definitely be considered in this race if only for the decent speed rating put up in the last outing. Recently Pennington has been sizzling which may give the edge to this gelding. MI AMORE - Reid has this gelding travelling well and is a quite good choice based on the strong Speed Figures recorded in route races recently. Win percentage one of the best in this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park West - Race #2 - Post: 12:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 RAPID LIGHTNING (ML=6/1)
#4 MYORION (ML=15/1)
#5 DANCE D'ARGENT (ML=20/1)
#8 CUNAVICHE (ML=7/2)


RAPID LIGHTNING - Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer at the finish with each recent start. This gelding is entered right back into a race in less than 10 days; this is a positive sign. Should do well in today's race. Weight shift of -7 from November 19th race at Gulfstream Park West. MYORION - Gonzales and Kassen perform well when they unite. It's hard to beat a +75 return on investment for a jock and handler. Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on October 31st. Should know the animal even better in today's race. This gelding likes to be near the lead. Today's race is a shorter distance and should promote his chances. DANCE D'ARGENT - When Fontanez and Jehaludi are put together on horses the ROI has been fabulous at +118. A solid handicapping angle is first-time Lasix. Jehaludi gives it to this one for this event. CUNAVICHE - You always have to be on the prowl for money making jock/trainer duos; we have one right here. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a general handicapping angle, it's still quite useful.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPARK D' SHARK (ML=5/2), #7 TABLE TOP (ML=3/1),

SPARK D' SHARK - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance race in the last two months. Not the greatest of indicators. TABLE TOP - Just don't think he is offering enough value at the morning line odds.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 RAPID LIGHTNING to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[4,6] with [4,5,6,8] with [4,5,6,8] with [1,3,4,5,6,8] with [1,3,4,5,6,8] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Del Mar - Race #3 - Post: 1:29pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ (ML=5/2)


FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ - This filly has 'tactical' speed, Pereira will use this advantage by laying in perfect position behind the pace, and getting first run on the leaders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 BOLT UP (ML=3/1), #5 MACKENZIES MOMENT (ML=7/2), #4 SECRET CHORDS (ML=4/1),

BOLT UP - Don't think this steed is worth 3/1 in this contest. MACKENZIES MOMENT - Ran a long time ago on May 24th. We should view one first. SECRET CHORDS - This filly showed very liitle last time out.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 FLOWINWITHTHEBREEZ to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with 7

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 12:50 PM EASTERN POST


The King's Swan Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#3 SPOOKED OUT
#1 MO FOR THE MONEY
#2 JAN'S RESERVE
#4 SALLISAW

Lest you have forgotten, this race is named in honor of "The King of Aqueduct" (King's Swan) who was so popular with New York City area fans that on his retirement from racing at age ten, he was honored with a retirement ceremony at Aqueduct Racetrack. Trained by Richard Dutrow Jr, He raced through his 10th year, winning the graded Aqueduct Handicap on two occasions. Here in the initial running of this stakes event, #3 SPOOKED OUT is the overall speed leader in this field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, has excellent early speed abilities to compliment for this sprint, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his two career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his last start. #1 MO FOR THE MONEY, the morning line favorite, comes off a "POWER RUN "WIN" to break his maiden in his "first asking."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Friday 11/27 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool ($4,427 C/O)

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (50 - 80 / $175.60): LIL MISS KNUCKLES (1st)

Spot Play: MADOFF (12th)


Race 1

(9) LIL MISS KNUCKLES exits much tougher races than most of the field. (7) STEPHIE CLAY will offer a nice price and can hit the board with a good setup. (4) DESIREE BELLABELLA pacing mare has yet to win on the year but does own a decent burst when timed right.

Race 2

(7) MOON BAY DANCER is the horse to beat in against a weak bunch. The pacer has beaten much better on the year. (1) MISS PAT WEISAR mare went a huge effort last week uncovered most of the mile. (6) ANGEL DEMON is capable with a smooth trip but probably needs more; command a price.

Race 3

(1) TRIXSEN GRAM has been improving on the year and gets the best post. (8) NICKS ONE MAN SHOW wasn't as sharp last out but the lightly raced pacer has upside. (4) OCAPTAIN MYCAPTAIN raced well last week but has a tendency to race inconsistently from week to week.

Race 4

(7) WESTERN SLAMMER just needs to race back to his prior effort for a huge chance. (1) CAPTAIN OBVIOUS gets the best post in a wide open race. (2) HOLY MCMOSES has two wins in ninety starts but has been knocking on the door; use underneath.

Race 5

In a very inconsistent field (6) PRINCESS GIRL owns wins against similar on the year. (7) MAPLE GROVE JOE is facing much weaker competition and is one of few contenders in the race. (9) AMAZED rarely wins but can hit the board with a smooth trip.

Race 6

(8) LOLA GRAM went a big effort last week before making a costly break at the wire. (10) SANDY WIN owns more ability than most of the field but isn't the most reliable; use caution. (5) THE LAST TARGARYEN was very close last week against similar; threat

Race 7

(10) SMASHY CERISE gets sent out for proven connections in a tough race to gauge. (5) DUNESIDE PERTTIE filly is capable of pacing a decent mile against a soft bunch. (3) FOX VALLEY RUBY fits in with this bunch nicely; threat.

Race 8

(6) BIG EXPENSE lightly raced trotter might be up to the task against tougher. (7) HUDSON JESSE dropped and popped last week but has just been racing evenly; use caution. (8) REVRAC HARBOUR has been a constant cash burner on the year; use underneath.

Race 9

(7) SMOKE RINGS looks terrible on paper but that should only boost the price if right. (3) KANSAS WILDCAT veteran stallion isn't what he once was but is the horse to beat; short price. (4) URAWOMANIZER is just now back in racing shape and should only improve third start back off a layoff.

Race 10

(6) B R FLYING DALI gets sent out for a recent hot barn in a much softer spot. (2) LET'S NOT DWELL will look to make it two straight at this level. (8) SAY IT AINT SO has had some tough trips in his last few. The pacer can threaten with a smooth trip.

Race 11

(4) AHLBBACK YANKEE has made the most money in the field on the year and faces significantly weaker. (9) FRISKIE FLICKER takes a huge drop in class and is capable of a big effort; threat. (6) KIMBERLEY R was pretty good off a scratch and had to need that start.

Race 12

(3) MADOFF has yet to win on the big track this year but if the pacer gets a decent drive he's a huge threat at this level. (9) BIG BRAD is one of the fastest horses in the field but is best used underneath. (6) OFFICIALLY YOURS owns a big move but needs a good setup for his best chance.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 11/27 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2/8/4,6,7/1,3,4,8/2,5 = $9.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,8/2,5/2,5/1,2,6,9 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 2,7/3,8,9/1,5,7/1,6 = $36

MEET STATS: 102 - 335 / $512.30 BEST BETS: 15 - 30 / $49.10

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 30 / $85.00

Best Bet: THE MURMURING PAN (2nd)

Spot Play: ASPEN CALIFORNIA (3rd)


Race 1

(2) HOT SPOT HANOVER raced well first up off a two-month layoff now faces a weaker field; top call. (1) KASSARAS SONG raced evenly in her Woodbine debut now should go better and get a more aggressive steer here. (3) CHEEKIE has good closing power on her best day and is an upset possibility.

Race 2

It seems pretty clear cut here that if (8) THE MURMURING PAN stays flat she'll win. If she breaks, it's wide open. (1) ELEGANT HOLIDAY raced decently following the choice last week and looks next best. (3) BRINKERS DREAM showed big speed in the third 1/4 last week then stopped. She could be much tougher if she got a breather.

Race 3

(4) ASPEN CALIFORNIA closed well against an uncatchable winner last week. She has a better shot here and will likely be third choice in the win pool. (7) ILL STAY HERE continued her roll in the first leg of this series and is only a head short of winning six straight. (6) TYMAL FIREITUP is also in very good form. This race should come down to whoever gets the best trip.

Race 4

(8) BETIT TO GETIT squeaks into this class having earned $32,030 in her last 10 with the condition limit being NW $32,500 Last 10 starts. The connections should be going for every penny they can with this hot mare before she gets forced to face better. (4) BET YA flew home last week and is obviously sharp; using. (1) INVEST IN ART changed tactics last time and it almost paid off. She's another for our early pick 4 ticket.

Race 5

(5) AMAZING CONTROL raced well off the layoff chasing a very sharp winner. She looks faster now than she was when she was laid up. (2) DOUBLE OLIVES was too far back last week but should get away better from the inside and mount a challenge much earlier in the mile. (9) SHOW SOME LEG outraced her long odds last time and could do the same here considering her current sharp condition.

Race 6

(2) MUSICAL SPELL didn't leave as expected last week but he retains J Mac to drive here and this might be the time he is on “go” when the gate leaves. (5) QUIT SMOKING NOW came home quickly without threatening last week which could be a sign he is ready for a much better effort tonight. (3) NEILS GOLDEN GIRL should get an aggressive steer from Henry here driving for his nephew and has a chance to upset.

Race 7

(3) APPLE PIE ANGEL was beaten less than 3 lengths from the 10-hole last week and now moves in eight slots; slight nod. (6) LAST MINUTE CINDY ships in and appears to face weaker here; using. (1) BRESCIA SEELSTER can't seem to find the wire in time but is a good bet to hit the ticket.

Race 8

(2) MUCH ADOO was a sharp first-over winner in her debut in trainer Waxman's barn and might be a better price here; call to repeat. (7) ANISTON SEELSTER was a faster winner but was allowed to cut a much slower first half. She's in the mix for sure but may be overbet. (6) PINKY TUSCADERO raced well against the choice and is another in with a shot here.

Race 9

(9) COLD CERTIFIED took a ton of money despite racing from the 10-hole last week and almost held on; coast-to-coast here. (8) FATHERS AMIGA swooped up late to nail the choice and has been racing well for several weeks; using. (3) FIVE BELOW ships in and debuts for a barn that could pop right away despite the time off.

Race 10

(7) MISS COCO LUCK took a shuffle then roared up late last week. If she can avoid a similar shuffle she will be tough here from close range. (1) YES YOU CAN looks solid but has missed three weeks; mixed signals. (5) DOCS HOLLYWOOD has been racing well at Hoosier and would be no surprise here.

Race 11

(6) OUR HOT MAJORETTE was closing in fast on a stubborn winner last week and should be tough in here. (1) DILLY DALI was a winner in her Woodbine debut despite having missed a month's action. She should be even better this week. (8) HAMMER DOWN was just short last week and is sure to be firing to the front again for as far as she goes. (3) ELECTRIC INTENSIONS has been racing great in lower classes out of town and could get a piece of this at a price. (2) MARIGOLD BLOOM typically finishes in mid-pack and tonight should be no exception.