Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Friday
I’ve got two free daily plays from earlier in the week that take place today, as Western Michigan hosts Toledo and TCU visits Texas. Results on those tomorrow as well as my big game, which I popped for two units, first time I’ve done that all season.
Here’s today’s comp, and I’ll journey to the NBA for this one.
TIMBERWOLVES at SUNS 9:05 PM
TAKE: TIMBERWOLVES PK
Tom Thibodeau is the head coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Following the teams’t third consecutive loss, this one at New Orleans, Tibs was not in the most jovial holiday mood.
Thibodeau didn’t mince many words in assessing his team’s performance against the Pelicans, as well as their overall performance. Not surprisingly, given his reputation as a defensive specialist, that aspect of the Timberwolves game appeared to have Thibodeau most aggravated. He mentioned the team “not playing any defense” and later in the interview offered that “I don’t know what we’re doing defensively”.
I have a feeling we’re going to see that portion of the Minnesota game getting more focus tonight at Phoenix. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a victory against the Suns, as the team still has to make some shots. But the Suns are a squad that can get handled when the opponent puts the clamps down defensively, and I’ll be really surprised if there’s not some real intensity in display tonight by the Wolves.
This is also not a great spot for Phoenix. The Suns have a lousy ledger when returning home from an extended road trip. plus this is not a team that has shown much ability to string together good performances. I also have a tendency to prefer visiting teams in holiday settings, as they don’t have anything else to do other than play the game, plus they’re not always overjoyed at having to spend the holiday way from family and friends.
Minnesota is clearly a bit of a flop through the early going with only four wins. But this is a team they ought to be take care of business against if they come to play. I’ll bank on the effort being there on the defensive end, and if the Wolves can make a few shots, I like them to get the best of the Suns tonight.
Bonus Play Friday
I’ve got two free daily plays from earlier in the week that take place today, as Western Michigan hosts Toledo and TCU visits Texas. Results on those tomorrow as well as my big game, which I popped for two units, first time I’ve done that all season.
Here’s today’s comp, and I’ll journey to the NBA for this one.
TIMBERWOLVES at SUNS 9:05 PM
TAKE: TIMBERWOLVES PK
Tom Thibodeau is the head coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves. Following the teams’t third consecutive loss, this one at New Orleans, Tibs was not in the most jovial holiday mood.
Thibodeau didn’t mince many words in assessing his team’s performance against the Pelicans, as well as their overall performance. Not surprisingly, given his reputation as a defensive specialist, that aspect of the Timberwolves game appeared to have Thibodeau most aggravated. He mentioned the team “not playing any defense” and later in the interview offered that “I don’t know what we’re doing defensively”.
I have a feeling we’re going to see that portion of the Minnesota game getting more focus tonight at Phoenix. That doesn’t necessarily translate into a victory against the Suns, as the team still has to make some shots. But the Suns are a squad that can get handled when the opponent puts the clamps down defensively, and I’ll be really surprised if there’s not some real intensity in display tonight by the Wolves.
This is also not a great spot for Phoenix. The Suns have a lousy ledger when returning home from an extended road trip. plus this is not a team that has shown much ability to string together good performances. I also have a tendency to prefer visiting teams in holiday settings, as they don’t have anything else to do other than play the game, plus they’re not always overjoyed at having to spend the holiday way from family and friends.
Minnesota is clearly a bit of a flop through the early going with only four wins. But this is a team they ought to be take care of business against if they come to play. I’ll bank on the effort being there on the defensive end, and if the Wolves can make a few shots, I like them to get the best of the Suns tonight.
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, November 25, 2016
Your free pick for Friday, November 25, 2016 comes in the NBA as New Orleans and Portland battle. Anthony Davis is a force at both ends of the floor for New Orleans. The Under is 38-15-2 in the Pelicans last 55 road games. Portland is home, 7-3 under the total at home against a team with a losing road record. The Under is 34-16-1 in the Blazers last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, 5-0 under in this building.
Play New Orleans/Portland under the total.
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday, November 25, 2016
Your free pick for Friday, November 25, 2016 comes in the NBA as New Orleans and Portland battle. Anthony Davis is a force at both ends of the floor for New Orleans. The Under is 38-15-2 in the Pelicans last 55 road games. Portland is home, 7-3 under the total at home against a team with a losing road record. The Under is 34-16-1 in the Blazers last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings, 5-0 under in this building.
Play New Orleans/Portland under the total.
Stephen Nover
Clippers vs Pistons
Bonus Play UNDER
Playing the day after Thanksgiving can be a flat spot for NBA teams since all were idle on Turkey Day.
The Clippers, for instance, took in the Vikings-Lions game. The Pistons were enjoying the holiday at home with their minds fresh from the historic announcement that the team will move from the Palace of Auburn Hills to play downtown next season when the new Little Caesars Arena opens.
So these teams may not be mentally sharp for this matchup. They also happen to have impressive defensive credentials.
The Clippers rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense holding foes to 97.1 points per game. This mark includes holding the Pistons to 82 points in their earlier meeting this season. Detroit ranks 26th in scoring averaging 97.4 points a game. The Pistons are in the bottom-eight in field goal percentage and their free throw percentage is ruined by Andre Drummond.
Detroit is one of these bad road-good home team types. The Pistons have surrendered only 88.1 points during their their first eight home contests. They should play with a lot of intensity in this early-season revenge spot.
Clippers vs Pistons
Bonus Play UNDER
Playing the day after Thanksgiving can be a flat spot for NBA teams since all were idle on Turkey Day.
The Clippers, for instance, took in the Vikings-Lions game. The Pistons were enjoying the holiday at home with their minds fresh from the historic announcement that the team will move from the Palace of Auburn Hills to play downtown next season when the new Little Caesars Arena opens.
So these teams may not be mentally sharp for this matchup. They also happen to have impressive defensive credentials.
The Clippers rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense holding foes to 97.1 points per game. This mark includes holding the Pistons to 82 points in their earlier meeting this season. Detroit ranks 26th in scoring averaging 97.4 points a game. The Pistons are in the bottom-eight in field goal percentage and their free throw percentage is ruined by Andre Drummond.
Detroit is one of these bad road-good home team types. The Pistons have surrendered only 88.1 points during their their first eight home contests. They should play with a lot of intensity in this early-season revenge spot.
Matt Josephs
Boise State vs Air Force
Bonus Play Air Force
Boise State continues to play for a potential New Year's bowl as they travel to play Air Force. Boise State's offense has been fantastic all year while the Falcons have played pretty good defense. The Broncos have won three straight since a loss at Wyoming. Air Force is on a four game win streak having scored 31 points or more in each contest. Defensively they have forced two turnovers or more in five straight. The Broncos defense has sprung some leaks lately so they may struggle to slow down AFA. The Falcons have covered four straight in this series and won on the road last year 37-30. Air Force has covered in 12 of their last 17 home games. Boise has been a money burner all year long covering just three of 11 contests. I think the home team can keep this one close.
Boise State vs Air Force
Bonus Play Air Force
Boise State continues to play for a potential New Year's bowl as they travel to play Air Force. Boise State's offense has been fantastic all year while the Falcons have played pretty good defense. The Broncos have won three straight since a loss at Wyoming. Air Force is on a four game win streak having scored 31 points or more in each contest. Defensively they have forced two turnovers or more in five straight. The Broncos defense has sprung some leaks lately so they may struggle to slow down AFA. The Falcons have covered four straight in this series and won on the road last year 37-30. Air Force has covered in 12 of their last 17 home games. Boise has been a money burner all year long covering just three of 11 contests. I think the home team can keep this one close.
Doc's Sports
Arizona State vs Arizona
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #142 Take Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (Friday 9:30 pm ESPN)
Pride will be on the line for the Territorial Cup tonight in Tucson as both teams are having disappointing seasons. Arizona State needs to win this game to become bowl eligible but I feel they will struggle to do so. Arizona has had a disastrous season but this is the game they have had circled for the last month. They would relish the opportunity to knock Arizona State out of bowl contention. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Arizona is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on Friday.
Arizona State vs Arizona
Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. #142 Take Arizona Wildcats over Arizona State Sun Devils (Friday 9:30 pm ESPN)
Pride will be on the line for the Territorial Cup tonight in Tucson as both teams are having disappointing seasons. Arizona State needs to win this game to become bowl eligible but I feel they will struggle to do so. Arizona has had a disastrous season but this is the game they have had circled for the last month. They would relish the opportunity to knock Arizona State out of bowl contention. Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Arizona is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on Friday.
Jack Jones
Northern Illinois vs Kent State
Jack's Free Pick Friday: Northern Illinois -5
The Northern Illinois Huskies showed me a lot last week. They came into their game with a 3-7 record and eliminated from postseason contention. They fell behind 21-0 by halftime and easily could have packed it in. But they didn't, and they actually came back to win that game 31-24 in overtime.
Freshman Daniel Santacaterina replaced and injured Ryan Graham in the second half and sparked the comeback. Santacaterina ended up throwing for 103 yards and a touchdown, but he was even more effective with his legs, rushing for 91 yards on 13 carries. He is just the spark this team needed, and I look for them to carry their momentum into this game against Kent State.
We've seen the effort from NIU here down the stretch as it has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall now, so it has been an undervalued commodity for weeks. The Huskies have gone 4-3 straight up with their three losses coming by 15 at Western Michigan as 18-point dogs, by 6 in OT to Central Michigan as 1.5-point favorites, and by 7 as 7-point dogs to Toledo, which are three of the best teams in the MAC and they played all three down to the wire.
I question the effort we're going to see from Kent State here after it lost 7-42 to lowly Bowling Green last week despite being 2.5-point favorites. The Golden Flashes gave up a whopping 597 total yards in that contest and were outgained by 343 yards.
While NIU is fine with Santacaterina playing quarterback, Kent State is in dire straits at the QB position. The Golden Flahses are down to their third-string quarterback now in George Bollas after Nick Holley was injured. Bollas has only completed 13 of 23 passes on the season. Holley is a huge loss because he leads the team in rushing by far with 950 yards and 10 scores.
This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Northern Illinois is a perfect 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Huskies have won seven of those meetings by at least a touchdown, and I expect that to be the case here again as they cover this 5-point spread.
Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in November road games over the past three seasons. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS following a win over the past two years. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Golden Flashes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bet Northern Illinois Friday.
Northern Illinois vs Kent State
Jack's Free Pick Friday: Northern Illinois -5
The Northern Illinois Huskies showed me a lot last week. They came into their game with a 3-7 record and eliminated from postseason contention. They fell behind 21-0 by halftime and easily could have packed it in. But they didn't, and they actually came back to win that game 31-24 in overtime.
Freshman Daniel Santacaterina replaced and injured Ryan Graham in the second half and sparked the comeback. Santacaterina ended up throwing for 103 yards and a touchdown, but he was even more effective with his legs, rushing for 91 yards on 13 carries. He is just the spark this team needed, and I look for them to carry their momentum into this game against Kent State.
We've seen the effort from NIU here down the stretch as it has gone 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven games overall now, so it has been an undervalued commodity for weeks. The Huskies have gone 4-3 straight up with their three losses coming by 15 at Western Michigan as 18-point dogs, by 6 in OT to Central Michigan as 1.5-point favorites, and by 7 as 7-point dogs to Toledo, which are three of the best teams in the MAC and they played all three down to the wire.
I question the effort we're going to see from Kent State here after it lost 7-42 to lowly Bowling Green last week despite being 2.5-point favorites. The Golden Flashes gave up a whopping 597 total yards in that contest and were outgained by 343 yards.
While NIU is fine with Santacaterina playing quarterback, Kent State is in dire straits at the QB position. The Golden Flahses are down to their third-string quarterback now in George Bollas after Nick Holley was injured. Bollas has only completed 13 of 23 passes on the season. Holley is a huge loss because he leads the team in rushing by far with 950 yards and 10 scores.
This has been a one-sided series to say the least. Northern Illinois is a perfect 8-0 straight up and 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. The Huskies have won seven of those meetings by at least a touchdown, and I expect that to be the case here again as they cover this 5-point spread.
Northern Illinois is 6-0 ATS in November road games over the past three seasons. The Huskies are 8-1 ATS following a win over the past two years. The Huskies are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Golden Flashes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games. Bet Northern Illinois Friday.
Mike Lundin
Hawks vs Jazz
5* NBA Free Pick Atlanta Hawks
Both the Utah Jazz and the Atlanta Hawks snapped losing streaks their last time out. I like the Hawks to be the team to win back-to-back games, or at the very least cover the spread here at Vivint Smart Home Arena Friday night.
The Hawks opened a five-game road trip on Wednesday with a 96-85 victory at Indiana. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Utah. Dwight Howard is off to an impressive start in his first season with his hometown team and he's coming off season-highs of 23 points and 20 rebounds against the Pacers.
The Jazz won for the first time in five games when they took down the Nuggets 108-83 on Wednesday. Worth noting though that the Jazz are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Hawks have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and I predict more success for the Hawks in this contest.
Hawks vs Jazz
5* NBA Free Pick Atlanta Hawks
Both the Utah Jazz and the Atlanta Hawks snapped losing streaks their last time out. I like the Hawks to be the team to win back-to-back games, or at the very least cover the spread here at Vivint Smart Home Arena Friday night.
The Hawks opened a five-game road trip on Wednesday with a 96-85 victory at Indiana. They're 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win and 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Utah. Dwight Howard is off to an impressive start in his first season with his hometown team and he's coming off season-highs of 23 points and 20 rebounds against the Pacers.
The Jazz won for the first time in five games when they took down the Nuggets 108-83 on Wednesday. Worth noting though that the Jazz are just 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Hawks have won nine of the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and I predict more success for the Hawks in this contest.
Jimmy Boyd
Arkansas vs Missouri
Free Pick on Arkansas -
I really like the value we are getting here with the Razorbacks laying less than double-digits against the Tigers. This is a complete mismatch in talent and playing at home isn't going to be enough for Missouri to keep this game close. The Tigers are just 1-6 in SEC play, where they have been outscored by 14.7 ppg. That's playing in the pathetic East Division, where only 2 of the 7 teams go into Week 13 with a winning conference record. Arkansas is just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come against ranked teams. Keep in mind they rolled Florida 31-10 at home and the Gators are 6-2 in the east.
Arkansas is sitting at 7-4 and looking to improve their resume to potentially get into a better bowl game. I think it's also important to this team to avoid going 3-5 in SEC play and instead finish up at 4-4. As for Missouri, there's absolutely nothing left for the Tigers to play for and for a lot of the players they likely can't wait to put this season in the books.
From a matchups perspective the edge for the Razorbacks only gets stronger. Arkansas should have a field day on the ground in this one. The Razorbacks just put up 357 rushing yards at Mississippi State and now face a Missouri defense that comes in 118th against the run, giving up 239.9 ypg. They will also have plenty of success throwing the ball when they choose to do so, as the Tigers are 77th against the pass (237.6 ypg). Keep in mind that the Razorbacks are 3-0 in the SEC when they rush for 200+ yards and 0-4 when they rush for 120 or less.
Arkansas' defense isn't great and their biggest weakness is against the run, as they come in 101st in run defense, allowing 216.5 ypg. A big part of that has to do with the great running teams they face in the west. Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Miss St and Texas A&M are all ranked in the top 33 in the country in rushing. The lone team in the west that struggles to run is Ole Miss (103rd) and they held them to 150 yards. Missouri has a decent running game, but will be without their top weapon in the backfield in Damarea Crockett (suspended), who has 1,062 yards and 10 TDs on 153 attempts (6.9 yards/carry).
The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game, winning by an average of 20.1 ppg. Missouri is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record, losing in this spot by 13.8 ppg. Take Arkansas!
Arkansas vs Missouri
Free Pick on Arkansas -
I really like the value we are getting here with the Razorbacks laying less than double-digits against the Tigers. This is a complete mismatch in talent and playing at home isn't going to be enough for Missouri to keep this game close. The Tigers are just 1-6 in SEC play, where they have been outscored by 14.7 ppg. That's playing in the pathetic East Division, where only 2 of the 7 teams go into Week 13 with a winning conference record. Arkansas is just 3-4 in league play, but all 4 losses have come against ranked teams. Keep in mind they rolled Florida 31-10 at home and the Gators are 6-2 in the east.
Arkansas is sitting at 7-4 and looking to improve their resume to potentially get into a better bowl game. I think it's also important to this team to avoid going 3-5 in SEC play and instead finish up at 4-4. As for Missouri, there's absolutely nothing left for the Tigers to play for and for a lot of the players they likely can't wait to put this season in the books.
From a matchups perspective the edge for the Razorbacks only gets stronger. Arkansas should have a field day on the ground in this one. The Razorbacks just put up 357 rushing yards at Mississippi State and now face a Missouri defense that comes in 118th against the run, giving up 239.9 ypg. They will also have plenty of success throwing the ball when they choose to do so, as the Tigers are 77th against the pass (237.6 ypg). Keep in mind that the Razorbacks are 3-0 in the SEC when they rush for 200+ yards and 0-4 when they rush for 120 or less.
Arkansas' defense isn't great and their biggest weakness is against the run, as they come in 101st in run defense, allowing 216.5 ypg. A big part of that has to do with the great running teams they face in the west. Auburn, Alabama, LSU, Miss St and Texas A&M are all ranked in the top 33 in the country in rushing. The lone team in the west that struggles to run is Ole Miss (103rd) and they held them to 150 yards. Missouri has a decent running game, but will be without their top weapon in the backfield in Damarea Crockett (suspended), who has 1,062 yards and 10 TDs on 153 attempts (6.9 yards/carry).
The Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 against bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game, winning by an average of 20.1 ppg. Missouri is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record, losing in this spot by 13.8 ppg. Take Arkansas!
Marc Lawrence
TCU vs Texas
Play - Texas Longhorns
Edges - Longhorns: 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS in Last Home Games, including 8-2 SUATS versus foe off a loss. Horned Frogs: 0-2 SUATS as dogs of less than 7 points this season. With the Horns focused on sending Charlie Strong out a winner, we recommend a 1* play on Texas. Thank you and good luck as always.
TCU vs Texas
Play - Texas Longhorns
Edges - Longhorns: 17-6 SU and 16-7 ATS in Last Home Games, including 8-2 SUATS versus foe off a loss. Horned Frogs: 0-2 SUATS as dogs of less than 7 points this season. With the Horns focused on sending Charlie Strong out a winner, we recommend a 1* play on Texas. Thank you and good luck as always.
