Friday 11/25/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Weekend’s best 13 games

Nebraska has injury ?’s at QB, check status on Armstrong. Home teams lost last four Nebraska-Iowa games; Cornhuskers won 37-34/13-7 in last two visits here. Underdogs covered four of last six series games. Huskers are 2-2 on road, losing at Wisconsin/Ohio St in last two; they’re 1-1 as home underdogs. Iowa lost three of last four home games, with win over Michigan, loss to I-AA North Dakota State; Hawkeyes are 1-2 as home favorites. Big 14 home favorites are 12-15 vs spread. Eight of last nine Nebraska games, three of last four Iowa games stayed under total.

Home side won last two Arkansas-Missouri games; Razorbacks lost 21-14 in last visit here in ’14. Favorites won three of last four series games. Arkansas allowed 139 points in three road games, losing 56-3 at Auburn, winning 41-38 in OT at TCU; they’re 0-4 vs spread in game following their last four wins. Missouri won/covered once in last seven games; they lost 63-37 at Tennessee last week. Tigers are 2-3 in I-A home games, 1-5 vs spread as an underdog this year- they allowed 287+ passing yards in five of last seven games. SEC home underdogs are 13-7 vs spread.

TCU crushed Texas 50-7/48-10 last two years; this is Longhorns’ last game and Strong’s last game as Texas HC- am guessing Longhorn players will try hard to send him out a winner. TCU is 5-5, still needs a win to be bowl eligible; they’re 3-1 on road, with loss 34-10 at West Virginia but also a shaky 24-23 win at lowly Kansas, which beat Texas LW. Horned Frogs won 43-10/20-13 in last two visits here. Texas is 2-5 this season games decided by 7 or less points. Big X home favorites are 10-11 vs spread. Under is 4-1 in last five TCU games, 5-0-1 in last six Texas tilts.

Air Force upset Boise State 28-14/37-30 last two years; underdogs covered last four series games. Broncos lost 28-14 in last visit here, two years ago. Falcons won last four games, are 8-3, winning last two 49-46/41-38; they’re 3-1 at home with an OT loss to Hawai’i. AF covered its only game as an underdog this year. Boise is 1-5 vs spread in its last six games but 3-1-1 as a road underdog this year, with only SU road loss 30-28 at Wyoming. Mountain West home underdogs are 12-6 vs spread. Over is 6-1 in last seven Air Force games, 3-0 in last three Boise games.

Washington is 4-0 on road, 2-2 as road favorites, scoring 50.5 pts/game in wins by 7-49-7-39 points; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five games, with home loss to USC in there. Huskies won six of last seven games with Washington State, winning last three (45-10/31-13 last two years); favorites covered five of last seven series games. Washington is 6-3 in last nine visits to Pullman, 6-2 vs spread in last eight. Wazzu had 8-game win streak snapped at Colorado LW; they’re 3-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. Pac-12 home underdogs are 9-10 vs spread.* Over is 6-2 in last eight games for both teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

Friday would be a good day to send your relatives to the mall, as we have the $500,000 Clark Handicap (G1) on tap at Churchill Downs and three stakes on the card at Aqueduct.

The Clark drew a solid field of 10 led by the winners of the last two editions, Hoppertunity and Effinex, who both exit the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

Hoppertnity did not get much pace to run at in the Classic and ran his usual race, which was good for fourth. He came into that race off a sharp win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) at Belmont Park.

Effinex, last year’s Clark winner and Classic runner up tossed in a real dud in this year’s Classic, fading to finish seventh and beaten 24 lengths. He had run tripe digit Beyer Speed Figures in seven of his eight previous starts.

I am going with Noble Bird, who comes into the race off a gate to wire score in the Fayette Stakes (G2) at Keeneland.

His win this spring in the Pimlico Special (G3) where he won by 11 ¼ lengths and earned a 110 Beyer was one of the best performances we had seen from an older horse, but then he ran a couple of real duds.

The Mark Casse trainee seems back on track and he showed in his win in the 2015 Stephen Foster (G1) that he likes the Churchill Downs main track.

The Big A card features a pair of stakes that were canceled last Sunday—a $125,000 New York Stallions Series race along with the $100,000 Key Cents for two-year-old fillies.

Also on the card is the $125,000 Winter Memories for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/16 miles on turf.

We have a big day on Saturday at the Big A featuring the $300,000 Remsen (G2), a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race, and the $500,000 Cigar Mile (G1), the final Grade 1 race in New York for 2016.

My Best Plays Report for Friday includes my 10 strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs including all of the stakes action.


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (11:50 ET)
#5 Primo Pentimento 3-1
#6 Dan the Man 5-2
#1 Apollo Eleven 7-2
#7 Two Down One to Go 5-1

Analysis: Primo Pentimento pressed the early pace and faded to finish 10th last out going long on turf against state bred maiden special weight foes and now drops in for a tag for the first time while switching back to dirt. He was on slop two back and his lone go over a fast track was his sixth in his debut going 6 1/2 at the Spa. Pedigree wise he is better suited for the main track, by First Dude out of a Repent mare that has dropped one winner. He gets a jock upgrade here from "No Go" to Gallardo.

Dan the Man faded to finish a well beaten sixth last out and also drops back in for a tag. Two back at this level this guy came with a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot. The blinkers go on for the Klesaris barn and the gelding has landed in the money in 4 of 6 trips on the main track. He is out of a Claramount mare that has dropped five other foals to race, four winners.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 1,5,6,7 / 1,5,6,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Winter Memories (3:20 ET)
#10 Gioia Stella 8-1
#11 Noble Beauty 7-2
#6 Danilovna 6-1
#1 My Impression 3-1

Analysis: Gioia Stella was a good looking winner last out as our top pick beating Alw-1 company at Belmont Park in her first start off a three month break. This gal looks capable of stepping into this tougher spot. Clement thought enough of her to try her in the Wonder Again in her first start against winners where she was seventh and then she was fourth against a tough field of Alw-1 foes. The winner of that race was On Leave, who won the Riskaverse and Sands Point (G2) in her next two starts. This gal has a nice pedigree, out of a Belong to Me mare that has dropped three other winners and two are stakes winners.

Noble Beauty was entered at Churchill Downs today but Brown says she will stay here for this race. She acted up and broke through the gate last out prior to her runner up finish in the Commonwealth Oaks (G2) at Laurel Park, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by My Impression. She was placed first two back thanks to a DQ in the Picker Up (G3) at Arlington Park. She returns here off a tow month break and fits well in this spot despite the outside draw.

Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 10,11 / 1,6,10,11
TRI: 10,11 / 1,6,10,11 / 1,3,6,10,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:

CD Race 6 11 The Clark Hcp G1 (5:56 ET)
#6 Noble Bird 7-2
#9 Hoppertunity 5-2
#1 Gun Runner 4-1
#4 Shaman Ghost 8-1

Analysis: Noble Bird comes into this race off a sharp gate to wire win in the Fayette (G2) over the main track here. The five-year-old won the Lukas Classic in gate to wire here two back and has landed in the exacta in three of his four trips under the Twin Spires. He won the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) here last June, but then was beaten 24 ½ lengths in his next start. He earned a career top speed fig winning the Pimlico Special (G3) back in May and then was beaten in his next two starts by a combined 30 lengths. He may have the tactical advantage here if able to shake loose early and that may depend on what kind of early zip we see out of Mr. Z. I’ll take a positive look he won’t regress in this spot but would like to catch most of the 7-2 morning line.

Hoppertunity won the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) two back at Belmont Park and I gave him a good shot of pulling off the upset in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) but he did not get enough pace to run at and ran his usual race, which was good enough for just fourth as the top pair ran huge. The Baffert trainee has run well here, taking this race in 2014 and running second to Effinex last year. He certainly is more reliable than our top pick as he just seems to run consistently, earning triple digit Beyers in 10 of his last 12 starts, and 99 figs in those other two trips.

Gun Runner tracked the early pace, took over the lead and could not hold off my top pick Tamarkuz in deep stretch in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and had to settle for second. He ran well in a runner up finish in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) two back at nine furlongs and he has run well over the main track here, winning the Matt Winn (G3) and running third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). He took the field gate to wire in his Matt Winn victory and with the rail draw figures to be in the mix early.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 6,9 / 1,4,6,9
TRI: 6,9 / 1,4,6,9 / 1,2,4,6,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #6 Majestic Tango 15-1
R6: #8 Devilish Grin 8-1
R6: #6 Mr Curiosity 10-1
R8: #10 Gioia Stella 8-1
R9: #3 Wilbernmoney 15-1
R9 #2 Iron Mizz 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 12:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 73 - Purse:$3300 - FILLIES & MARES NON-WINNERS $1,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $600 HORSES THAT RACED FOR PURSE OF $7,500 OR HIGHER LAST START INEL AE:N/W 3 EXT PM
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 JETOMATT 5/1
# 4 LL JACKPOT 5/1
# 5 CHEYENNE LEILA 7/1

Hard not to give the nod to JETOMATT as the top pick today. It's tricky to consider based only on class, but this mare has among the top class ratings of the group of animals. The consortium noted a strong showing out of this entrant last time. Looking for a repeat of that to end up in the winner's circle. Hands down the best position at Freehold Raceway is the 1. The win clip is excellent. LL JACKPOT - This filly has the ability to take positive advantage of a favorable pace scenario in this affair. CHEYENNE LEILA - Positive feeling - squaring off well enough to contend in this gathering.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 10:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 66 - Purse:$6400 - FILLIES & MARES - 6-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2 EXTENDED PARI-MUTUEL RACES OR $20,000 LIFE SARATOGA
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 BELLY DANCER 5/2
# 5 PRINCESS DELFINA 15/1
# 4 KATHY DELIGHT 5/1

BELLY DANCER most likely figures to be the standardbred to beat in here. The number crunching team knows that speed is King in harness racing. This horse will unlock our way to a nice ultimate prize. Has a strong shot in this event, if she can repeat her back racing class. Had one of the best TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the group of horses in her last competition. Must use in your wagers. PRINCESS DELFINA - The knowledge group can't help but think about this race horse because the internal pace stats fit well here at Saratoga Harness. Should be given a look based on the respectable speed rating earned in the last contest. KATHY DELIGHT - Bang-up driver-trainer figures make this standardbred a bang-up choice. More than likely will be putting cash down today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6020 Class Rating: 67

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 11 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 6 BETTY STARLITE 4/5

# 5 WHAT ABOUT MARY 2/1

# 7 ADRI C 3/1

BETTY STARLITE is my choice. She must be given consideration given the very strong speed figures. This filly obviously likes the distance, going 18 for 37 in her races as of late. Earned a competitive speed figure last time out. WHAT ABOUT MARY - With Diaz getting the mount, watch out for this equine. She looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. ADRI C - This equine has a fantastic win percent in dirt sprints. Like the finishing positions in the last couple of races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20700 Class Rating: 85

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,800 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 25 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 VILARO 8/1

# 6 STRAWBERRY BOMB 3/1

# 8 KIPPER DOODLE 5/1

I've got to go with VILARO and is a very good value bet given the line at 8/1. Could beat this group given the 90 Equibase Speed Fig put up in her last outing. STRAWBERRY BOMB - She looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Must be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. KIPPER DOODLE - Look for a solid pace improvement from this animal who enters on Lasix today. Looks strong for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 1:31pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#4 MIND MAGIC (ML=4/1)
#3 CLASSY KID (ML=20/1)


MIND MAGIC - This gelding is in good condition. Finished first on Nov 9th. The return on investment when Wong and Attard get together is tremendous. CLASSY KID - Good return on investment for this jock and handler tandem.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 COSMIC CHARLIE (ML=2/1), #7 MILLIONINTHEMAKING (ML=5/2), #6 CAPE ZAVATA (ML=6/1),

COSMIC CHARLIE - This racer just hasn't looked fit recently. This probable favorite may be out of shape without any recent works. MILLIONINTHEMAKING - If he goes off at the morning line odds of 5/2, I'll have to pass. CAPE ZAVATA - This gelding notched a speed figure in his last race which likely isn't good enough today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MIND MAGIC - The post can be all important in getting position in a route race. This horse is in the perfect spot today, unlike in the last race on November 9th.
**


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #4 MIND MAGIC to win if we can get at least 8/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Gulfstream Park West - Race #4 - Post: 2:07pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 88

Rating:

#1 BLIND RUCKUS (ML=8/1)
#5 LOUIES BABY BOY (ML=4/1)


BLIND RUCKUS - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Alvarado gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. I like this gelding. Has the top earnings per race in here. LOUIES BABY BOY - Horses that finish second in Maiden races and finish well in front of the show horse are generally good bets next time out. Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a good outing on October 29th. Trying to break maiden moving from a grass race to the dirt. I think Lewis will have him fit and ready for today's race. The last speed rating of 75 is the highest last race speed figure in the field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HECKUVASHOT (ML=2/1), #6 PIONEER SPIRIT (ML=3/1), #4 RORY (ML=5/1),

HECKUVASHOT - A runner should have more early speed at 1 1/8 miles to get me excited about his chances to win at 7 furlongs. Pace makes the race and the lack of pace means this sustainer will have to rally without any help. PIONEER SPIRIT - Trying to beat this one in today's event at the reward of 3/1. RORY - Tough to bet on any thoroughbred in a sprint race at 5/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last 60 days.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #1 BLIND RUCKUS on top if we're getting at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #9 - AQUEDUCT - 3:50 PM EASTERN POST

The Key Cents Stakes

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#10 FILIBUSTIN
#6 KIM ROYALE
#7 OVERNEGOTIATE
#2 IRON MIZZ

The race honors the career of Key Cents, who hit the board in 23 of her 41 career starts to date, winning 13 times, earning nearly $350,000.00 for her "connections." Here in the 4th running of this stakes event, #18 FILIBUSTIN, a 4-1 shot, is undefeated in a two race career, winning both in "POWER RUN FASHION." Jockey Jose Lezcano was in her irons for that last win, 53 days ago at nearby Belmont Park, which produced more than a 1,000% return on investment in the process, and is back today here in Ozone Park for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips!" #6 KIM ROYALE, a 5-1 shot, is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and comes off a maiden breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" in her "first asking."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 11/25 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2,6,8/5,6,9/2/2,5,6/2,6,9 = $16.20

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,6/2,6,9/2,9/2,3,6 = $54

LATE PICK 4: 2,3,6/3,5/2,3,4/4,5 = $36

MEET STATS: 19 - 85 / $120.00 BEST BETS: 4 - 8 / $11.90

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 8 / $0.00

Best Bet: DEWAR N SODA (10th)

Spot Play: LEGAL PROCESS (7th)


Race 1

(2) SELLING THE DREAM did well to close some ground late in a quick mile last time. If she is in range turning for home here, she could mow them all down. (6) HOT SPOT HANOVER is as sharp as they come and is the one to upend at a short price. (8) POP GOES THE WEASEL exits the same race as the choice and she could go a long way on the lead if she blasts to the front early here. (10) MISS BABE DELIGHT had a nice rally going last week then hooked wheels in the lane. She would be my top pick here if she drew better.

Race 2

(5) MAKER A YANKEE has been racing well in higher classes down south and it's hard not to like her in this spot despite missing 17 days of action; top call. (6) AGENT DINOZZO jogged last time he raced in a non-winners of two, albeit vs. easier. He should be close here if he stays flat. (9) TUSCANS MEMORY wasn't disgraced in the Autumn series and he picks up the leading driver here; respect. (7) POLLAR HALL made a big move to the front and held on late last time. He could better this placing in his current sharp form.

Race 3

(2) SUNRISE AVENUE looks much the best in here off her solid effort in the Autumn series last out. (6) SWAN FOR LIFE has amassed a solid record south of the border and she should get out near the front here which always helps on this track. (8) NIGHT WITCH had a tough trip last time in her first start over the track and she returns quicker here; expect improvement. (1) ARE YOU IN is another to consider coming off a much-improved performance. He can hit the ticket here.

Race 4

(6) CASIMIR OPERATIVE was on way too much cover last week but she raced well considering. If she can beat a couple off the gate here, it could make a world of difference. (5) I WISH YOU WELL was razor-sharp when winning off a 3-month break last week. She has to be considered despite moving up in class. (2) LIFE GROOVE improved sharply for McNair as many do and he sticks here; using. (7) DRIFT PANIC exits the Autumn series and she could get sent hard off the gate here which could make her tough to overhaul late.

Race 5

(2) LINWOOD BEACHGIRL moves inside and returns quicker this time. Expect a wakeup effort. (9) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE moves up off an impressive win; using. (6) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK looks ready for a good effort coming off a break; beware. (5) REGALLY READY will be closing for a smaller share as she often does.

Race 6

(2) MISS JONES SHOOTER made several moves to win last week now she gets an advantageous draw compared to her main rivals; call for the threepeat. (9) BRING ME DIAMONDS was shaded by the choice last time in a good effort. She should be right there again. (8) QUEENOFHEARTS made up a lot of ground on the choice late last time. She isn't out of this, but she needs some luck. (6) CHARMING HILL seems destined for a smaller share here.

Race 7

(2) LEGAL PROCESS closed well into a strong late pace in her comeback race. She should be all set for a top effort here. (6) VOODOO CHARM figures on the class drop here if she can keep it together this time. (3) TRUE REFLECTION had no shot with the trip she had last time. She should be much more of a factor this time from an improved post. (5) SHOW SOME LEG can threaten here leaving from the middle of the gate.

Race 8

(3) MASERATI SEELSTER set big fractions and kept going in this class two back. With the drop back to this level, a repeat of that performance is very possible. (5) SKY GUY is one of the better closers in here and he could get lots of early action to set up his late charge. (1) THINK AGAIN almost nailed the choice off a perfect pocket trip last time. A repeat of that trip is hard to predict from the tricky rail post. (6) WATT A FUNNY FACE paced out of his skin for the first 3/4's Monday night repelling several challenges then he outstaggered the field late. He will be a pace threat at a minimum here.

Race 9

(2) IMAGINE DRAGON waited too long to move last week then pulled into a sizzling third 1/4 and couldn't advance. If she is put into action earlier here, she should be right there. (4) DELIGHTFUL HILL races best near the lead. Is tonight the night she blasts off the gate? (3) WRANGLER MAGIC is always a threat on or near the lead; using in Pick 4 bets. (5) REQUEST FOR PAROLE steps up but is sharp and she could hit the ticket at a price here by passing foes late.

Race 10

(5) DEWAR AND SODA raced well in the Autumn series and she looks tough here facing easier. (4) STYLISH BEACHWHERE should benefit from the better post and get within range earlier. (9) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE wasn't far behind the choice last time and she should take one of the smaller shares here. (7) COLLECTIVE WISDOM steps up off a nice score but she is unlikely to get a 30 2/5 second 1/4 this time. (6) MISTY DE VIE will be closing to finish on the fringes most likely.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 11/25 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 44 - 123 / $201.60 (-$44.40)

BEST BETS: 5 - 10 / $11.80 (-$8.20)

Best Bet: SHEER FLEX (8th)

Spot Play: NOT BEFORE EIGHT (6th)


Race 1

(3) CLEAR VIEW HANOVER is in a great spot to sprint to the front and sit no worse than a pocket trip. (8) NERIDA FRANCO N was in too deep last time and won her previous start. I'm not sure what to make of this import on the big track, but the price should be right. (4) GIRLLOOKATTHATBODY has been facing decent foes at Pocono and merits at least a look in the post parade.

Race 2

(4) CYPRESS POINT put in a solid effort from an outside post with trainer Michael Russo in the bike last time. He should be closer to the action this time. (1) DR CAL is probably the horse to beat and certainly one that will be firing off the gate. (3) WYGANT PRINCE was used hard most recently and paid the price; decent form. (10) ELLEN'S STREAK beat a bunch of these a week ago but is stuck outside this time.

Race 3

(4) BIG EXPENSE had some traffic issues last time and broke when he ran into another foe. In a blank field without a standout, I'll roll the dice here. (2) MASTER OF EXCUSES was stuck in some pretty quick miles at Hoosier recently and should fit with this bunch. (8) BELL A CHICK is capable of winning if he minds his manners. (7) O'WOW faced a killer in his qualifier, so don't count that against him. I wouldn't be shocked if he showed up with a nice effort.

Race 4

(5) GENTLE JANET is another Hoosier import for trainer Rick Dane. She doesn't exactly jump off the page on form, but those that will take money in this field aren't enticing me. (7) TWICE AN ANGEL has displayed the ability to keep up in fast miles and qualified back sharply. If she has matured since June, watch out! (1) HAPPINESS ships in for trainer Ron Burke and did post a win here last year in 1:50 3/5. (4) APPLE PIE ANGEL was hung out last time. She has a better post and could make the front.

Race 5

(1) OPULENT YANKEE wasn't quite up to par in his first start since May. Against an even easier group this week, I'll stick with him. (4) SPLITSVILLE rallied well last time and won his prior start; sharp now. (8) CELEBRITY STIMULUS comes off some good amateur efforts and now adds David Miller. (9) MEADOWBRANCH WENDY could win this race by five with a top effort. She can also break at any moment.

Race 6

(4) NOT BEFORE EIGHT has been done in by outside posts since returning from a recent mini-vacation. If she is going to conquer this condition, tonight is the night. (5) INITTOWINAFORTUNE just missed last week and is still stuck on one win this year. Even so, she remains a huge threat. (6) WINDSUN GLORY blitzed a field at Pocono in her first start for trainer Ron Burke. How good is she?

Race 7

(1) ULSTER couldn't last the mile last Friday but that experience can certainly help him in his quest to win this mini-series final. He'll show speed again and have a big shot. (4) MIDFIELD MAGIC bested the top choice last time and is clearly dangerous again. (10) EXPLOSIVE MAN raced OK in this class last time and might have been my pick this week to upset with a better starting spot.

Race 8

(5) SHEER FLEX took a step forward last Saturday and gave notice that he is coming into form. (4) HYWAY MARCUS picks up a Hall of Fame driver this week. (7) POP I comes off a win at Philly and having Brett Miller in the bike shouldn't hurt.

Race 9

(6) PURITY was burnt to a crisp on the engine last time and is rewarded with a soft spot. She gets one last chance from me. (5) WHISKERSONKITTENS was facing strong competition at Hoosier and should find this group to her linking. (7) BLUSH HANOVER is in a good spot but couldn't lure Campbell off #5.

Race 10

(4) BORN TO FIGHT came up a bit flat last time. I'm hopeful Zeron can wake him up. (1) SIX BAX has displayed the ability to step up at times. (7) HILL I AM is better than what he has shown of late; early speed tonight?

Race 11

(1) DUNE IN RED wasn't going far against tougher from post 10 last week. The price should be right to take a shot that she can beat this class. (4) THAT WOMAN HANOVER has big early speed and a winning habit here. (7) ICOMMANDMYSPIRIT has been racing well and has a big shot in this race.

Race 12

(2) FIRST BEST draws a better post and if handled very aggressively can wire this lackluster group. (5) ROCKERS ALLEY was improved last time and can build on that effort. (7) STATUS WARRIOR gets a driver change to Brett Miller. (1) ST LADS MORGAN should find some early speed on Friday.

 

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SPOT PLAYS

For Friday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (1st) Two Down One to Go, 5-1
(6th) Vandalize, 3-1


Charles Town (1st) Diana's Thrill, 3-1
(8th) Charitable Harlow, 4-1


Churchill Downs (6th) Prudence, 9-2
(7th) Greeleys Charm, 5-1


Del Mar (1st) Rosarita, 7-2
(2nd) Hot Rodin, 6-1


Delta Downs (3rd) Williamette Valley, 4-1
(7th) Southern Mister, 3-1


Fair Grounds (5th) Fusaichi Flame, 5-1
(6th) Go Stellaire, 5-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Genuine Happiness, 5-1
(6th) Oxley Gap, 8-1


Golden Gate Fields (7th) Isa Firecracker, 7-2
(8th) Tinderella, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Starship Hurricane, 9-2
(6th) You're My Destiny, 3-1


Hawthorne (3rd) Rainyinbetween, 6-1
(5th) Flight Pattern, 6-1


Laurel Park (3rd) Airlie's Diamond, 4-1
(8th) Southern Equity, 3-1


Mahoning Valley (3rd) Ambrosini, 3-1
(6th) Turn the Page, 4-1


Penn National (7th) Judymoon, 4-1
(8th) Sully Man, 3-1


Remington Park (4th) Afleet Whitegold, 3-1
(8th) Escalate, 3-1


Retama Park (2nd) Bikini Line, 4-1
(7th) Prada's Bling, 9-2


Turf Paradise (5th) Cowboy Academy, 4-1
(6th) Good Company, 3-1


Woodbine (3rd) Teatoe, 8-1
(7th) Corey's Best, 6-1

 

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Friday’s six-pack

— Lions 16, Vikings 13— Detroit is 7-4, despite trailing all 11 games in the 4th quarter; a remarkable season.

— Cowboys 31, Redskins 26— Dallas has won 10 in a row, but is now 9-1 vs spread in those games.

— Steelers 28, Colts 7— How do you have Scott Tolzien as your backup QB when you start three rookies on the OL?

— Louisville 62, Wichita State 52— Cardinals were a two-point underdog.

— Baylor 73, Michigan State 58— Spartans are over-scheduled, and Tom Izzo apologized to his team for it.

— Iowa State 73, Indiana State 71— Sycamores got hosed in this game; they took 14 FTs, Iowa State took 29. I had no dog in this fight, was just watching, but this was bad.

 

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#1 Sports

Early Friday's Free Selection: Southern Mississippi + 14 1/2

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: CFB Air Force +8 Over Boise St

 

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: Take FRESNO ST (CBB) +4 over Oregon St

 

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Totals4U

Early Friday's Free Selection: Buffalo/Bowling Green over 58 1/2

 

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Atlantic Sports

Early Friday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Elon + 3

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: CFB Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -14½ over So MIssissippi

 

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Friday Selection Arkansas -8