Friday 11/13/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $35200 Class Rating: 87

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, TRIAL OR OKLAHOMA BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SUN KING SISTER 8/1


# 8 INDIAN ROCKET 7/5


# 3 WONDERFUL STAR 15/1


SUN KING SISTER is the best bet in this race especially at 8/1. Is a key contender - given the 91 speed fig from her most recent race. With a strong 71 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Going in a dirt route race gives this mare a solid shot. INDIAN ROCKET - Must be considered given the class of races run as of late. Asmussen has a reliable 16 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. WONDERFUL STAR - With a solid 84 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. When this rider and trainer team up, risk takers often make money.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #8 - Post: 4:14pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 ELEGANT MARGARET (ML=5/1)
#6 ARTEMISIA (ML=1/1)


ELEGANT MARGARET - All systems look good for this filly. Last workout, 2nd fastest of the day, shows she's fit and ready. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let her get away early they probably won't catch her. Larson brings her back again. I advocate you stick with this hot filly. ARTEMISIA - Horses that finish second in Maiden races and finish well in front of the show horse are generally good bets next time out. Russell Baze was aboard this filly in the last race and was impressed enough to take the horse right back. This horse brings in a lot of money per race around the track. I believe she will add to the lifetime earnings today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ANALYSIS PARALYSIS (ML=3/1), #3 SHESA RANEGADE (ML=8/1),

ANALYSIS PARALYSIS - Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint races in order to wager on her. Will be tough for this entrant to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable contenders list. SHESA RANEGADE - Won't be easy for this horse to beat this field off of that last rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - ELEGANT MARGARET - Has been racing regularly since a layoff. According to my calculations, horses hit their peak cycle in their 3rd or 4th race back. Watch out for this horse right here in this race.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #9 ELEGANT MARGARET to win. Have to have odds of at least 5/2 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #1 - AQUEDUCT - 12:20 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $40,000.00 CLAIMING $40,000.00 PURSE

#3 NORTHERN SCREAMER
#4 REIGN
#1 YOUR TURN
#2 SING FOR BEAUTY

#3 NORTHERN SCREAMER qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last four outings, including a maiden-breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+4) in her last start. Jockey Jose Ortiz has been in her irons on two previous occasions, hitting the board in both, including that win 39 days ago at nearby Belmont Park ... Ortiz is back here in Ozone Park this afternoon for his 3rd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." #4 REIGN takes a class drop (-8), and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last four outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her respective maiden in her 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Friday 11/13 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (50 - 78 / $175.60): VITAL TERROR (9th)

Spot Play: BIG MOON RIZING (3rd)


Race 1

(1) LET'S NOT DWELL picks up a big driver change with the best post down in class. (6) TORNADO HENRY has been facing much tougher at Hoosier; threat. (8) LIMA REAL EASY finds a weak and inconsistent field and should offer a big price.

Race 2

(9) DALI UNDAUNTED owns wins against better on the year and was the driver's choice. (4) EDDIE EDDIE EDDIE pacer is 0 for his career but is capable of hitting the board. (10) NICKS ONE MAN SHOW might have some ability shipping in from out east.

Race 3

(5) BIG MOON RIZING has been competitive at this level before and finds a suspect bunch. (4) FANTASTIC ROCK picks up a huge driver change and gets sent out for proven connections. (8) PILLAGE AND BURN has the most upside in the race but a provisional pilot; command a price.

Race 4

(1) FOX VALLEY PIPA should offer the better price of the contenders off a nice effort. (6) SPARKIN YOUR FIRE wasn't nearly as good last out but was sharp the start prior. (7) DAKOTA RUN is capable of pacing a good mile with a good setup.

Race 5

In a really weak group, (4) SANDY WIN flashed some ability and finds a field full of question marks. (6) NASHVILLE NASTY has been competitive against similar but has come up short when it matters most; use underneath. (9) FOX VALLEY WAVE just raced evenly last out and needs to find a way into the race.

Race 6

(6) MASTER OF EXCUSES is very inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts him in the mix. (9) CELEBRITY HERCULES was the driver's choice and drops down in class. (8) MY MINI SNICKERS doesn't look the best on paper but has beaten better on the year.

Race 7

(8) MACHO BURBON has been improving since the short layoff and is a threat if he minds his manners. (6) PARTY FALLS is probably the horse to beat with a smooth trip. (7) CAFFEIE KID freshman pacer faces older more seasoned opponents but was very good winning his first lifetime start.

Race 8

(4) TAMARAC SMOOCHIE will look to make it three straight against similar; short price. (2) FLUKYS GIRL has had two tough trips in a row and is one of few threats to the top choice. (7) I'M TELLING YOU was sharp at this level prior to the trip to Indiana.

Race 9

(1) VITAL TERROR probably needed the start last week and gets a post edge on his rivals. (2) SAY IT AINT SO is 0 for the year but flashed some sneaky late pace last out. (8) BARBOSA pacing gelding has been very good in his last few starts.

Race 10

(7) DP ANGEL was the driver's choice of four off a big effort against better. (8) TOGETHERFOREVER gets sent out for a hot barn and will offer value. (3) WINGS is best used underneath for a low percentage pilot.

Race 11

(1) BOHEMIA takes a big drop down in competition for a proven barn. (3) RICHESS NESTOR was an open length winner when last seen in this spot. (2) JO JO SPUR was a multiple move winner last out but needs more; command a price.

Race 12

(7) FOX VALLEY GEORGE comes into the race sneaky sharp and would have finished second last week had he shook loose sooner. (1) WHY ASK WHY should find this spot easier; threat. (10) PART TIME just missed last week against better but needs to find a way into the race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Friday 11/13 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,5/4,5,6,8/3,8/1,3,5,7,10/7,8 = $48

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,5,7,10/6,7,8/2,10/2,7 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,4,5/3/2,5/1,2,4,8,10 = $30

MEET STATS: 69 - 251 / 318.50 BEST BETS: 12 - 22 / $41.90

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 22 / 54.10

Best Bet: ARTISTIC MADISON (9th)

Spot Play: HIGH FASHION MEL (7th)


Race 1

(1) CAMPS BAY showed marked improvement last week and could step up again and take this in her 2nd start out of the Zeron barn. (2) DOUBLE OLIVES was impressive coming off a short break, looks to have her gait issues solved and is the one to beat here. (5) PASSIONATE BEAUTY was a solid winner in the maiden class but may find the top two tougher here.

Race 2

(4) ADAYMER SEELSTER makes her third start off a long break and did well here at this meet last winter; surprise package. (5) LIGHTS GO OUT struggled to keep up to her cover last week. She likely gets rolled early here and tries to take this group from start to finish. (6) WILDCAT MAGIC didn't fire last time perhaps due to the nature of the track. She should rebound with a better effort here.

Race 3

(8) STRONG HOPE broke stride and had broken equipment last time while making a pretty good late move. Henry should send this one early this time which is when he gets his best results. (3) MEGO MOSS is more than capable of competing at this level if he can stay trotting. (4) BROADWAY PRINCE looks best of the rest.

Race 4

(7) ST LADS PENNY LANE is the only class-dropper in this field which could be just what the doctor ordered for her. She will likely try to wire this group. (5) EAT ME UP has been racing well for the leading trainer out of town and merits inclusion on Pick 4 tickets here. (10) FOOLISH MIND won from the 10-hole two back then faced a mare that was making a big class drop and couldn't go with her. She wouldn't be a big surprise here.

Race 5

(7) BETIT TO GET IT has been razor-sharp in winning her past two starts; call to threepeat. (8) BROOKDALE SHADOW had good speed both early and late in her mile last week and should threaten here. (6) NAT A VIRGIN drops in class and is capable of threatening these despite her inconsistency.

Race 6

(10) BOY MEETS GRILL improved sharply last week, retains Filion and will be a good price; call to upset. (2) JOSEPH GERARD won several times in this class this summer and debuts for Zeron here. He's dangerous from close range. (1) NUMBER ONE HUBBY ships in with sharp form and debuts for Montini; another to consider.

Race 7

(7) HIGH FASHION MEL paced a 27 flat third 1/4 last week in her return from a break. That should have her primed perfectly here for a big speed try. (2) LICULIA A has been facing better at Yonkers and is the one to beat debuting for the top trainer. (8) ABBIJADE HANOVER has been flying home the past two starts and should be vaulting past most of these late in the mile.

Race 8

(5) OCEANVIEW BINDI tried it first up against a sharp repeat winner last week. She does better when cutting the mile and will likely be sent by Drury here. (4) SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR was a following third in the same mile and should also enjoy ditching the winner of that mile who moved up in class tonight. (1) DIANNA SANTANNA should beat a few of these off the gate which would make her job easier considering her preferred closing style.

Race 9

I will continue to ride (3) ARTISTIC MADISON until I find a reason not to. She is as sharp as a racehorse can get right now. (2) BET YA was a strong third to the choice last week and could try for the front or pocket early here where she is typically more effective. (7) MS MAC N CHEESE had a perfect trip last week but could not pass the choice late. She's sharp but will likely be closing off cover here this time.

Race 10

(2) WHISTYS PARADISE uncorked a wild rally last week to win going away; call to repeat. (5) CYNDALIANNE DUC was hung out making her move and raced strongly to be 2nd to the choice. She could turn the tables with a better trip. (6) JENNA CASIMIR is a good bet for the bottom of the tri and/or super.

Race 11

(2) SHOW SOME LEG moves inside and should get a more aggressive steer here. Slight nod in a wide-open finale. (9) HAMMER DOWN can get a big piece of this if she can overcome her post. Henry is one of the best getting them off the gate, so it's possible. (1) WINDSONG LINDSEY would be a big threat if she could duplicate her penultimate mile. (7) CLASSIC COMEDY didn't leave the rail last week and is capable of better. (4) LDL GEM was strong first up last week and could better this placing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 11/13 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 5 - $6,647.69 Jackpot Hi Five Carryover

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00 BEST BETS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: VENUS DELIGHT (7th)

Spot Play: SHARP EDGE (3rd)


Race 1

(8) BATTLE MAGE has a win over the track, which is more than I can say for the competition. Her recent efforts versus NW4 types at Yonkers show enough form to expect a decent effort versus a questionable group; Lasix added. (6) E L LOVE raced okay versus better foes in the American National but doesn’t seem to bring her ‘A’ game every week. (4) RADIANT BEAM has early zip and should get a piece of the exotics, at least.

Race 2

(3) SHAKE IT CERRY has the opportunity to steal this race on the engine if a few of these elect to save their best for next week’s final. Jimmy Takter trainee has been racing a bit better lately AND Lasix should only help. (1) CLASSIC MARTINE made a miscue on an off track in the Breeders Crown. I’m going to give her a pass for that one. (6) BEE A MAGICIAN faces females for the first time in a while. Will she be handled aggressively and sent to the front or save her best for next week? (2) HANDOVER BELLE is capable of stepping up with a big mile; worth considering as a saver.

Race 3

(6) SHARP EDGE comes off a qualifier that doesn’t look great, but he was racing against top trotters Classic Martine and Obrigado. He is as fast as any in here and could offer reasonable value. (3) FONDANT has found a good spot for a barn that does well when its horses are well classified. (2) STONEBRIDGE IDOL has dealt with some tough posts in recent starts and figures to bring a more aggressive effort this week.

Race 4

(6) PENPAL has seemingly picked up her game in recent weeks. This girl has some ability and finds a winnable spot. (5) JK FANNIE wasn’t exactly sharp in her qualifier, but that was her first official trip to the track in four weeks; could be tighter now. (2) ALBANY GIRL has done pretty well when outside of stakes competition.

Race 5

The undefeated (5) DOUBLE EXPOSURE gets an acid test in this spot, but has an average margin of victory north of 3 lengths and a post edge on the likely favorites. (8) ALL THE TIME has a legitimate chance to steal divisional honors from Broadway Donna with a couple more wins. She’ll be tough to catch on the engine once again. (7) HAUGHTY made an uncharacteristic break in the Kindergarten final. Her lack of obvious early speed is the major concern, though.

Race 6

(7) RADAR CONTACT was the queen of the Meadowlands earlier this year. Her recent form is subpar, but this looks like a very easy spot. (4) SAYITALL BB comes off two good tries and certainly has back class. (2) PAN LUIS OBISPO just missed last week and should stick close to the action tonight.

Race 7

(4) VENUS DELIGHT missed four weeks of action prior to the Breeders Crown and came up short. With only 20 days off prior to this start, I’m hoping she’ll be sharper. (2) GALLIE BYTHE BEACH is clearly in fine form right now while riding a three-race win streak. She is good enough to go with the best. (5) KATIE SAID was rolling by in the Breeders Crown when she made a break. The talent is there and hopefully we get to see the results eventually. (6) SANDBETWEENURTOES is a quality mare that can’t be eliminated.

Race 8

(5) WATKINS raced well in a brief stint here earlier this year and should benefit by the driver change to Jason Bartlett. (2) UVA HANOVER gets some class relief and figures to bring a better effort. (8) MAMBO LINDY has a nearly perfect record. This is a big step up in class, though. (7) EXPLOSIVE MAN has some ability and could be worth including if the price is right.

Race 9

(7) UF FAST FEELIN ships in for a barn that was on fire at times during the winter/spring months this year. His qualifier was unappealing, but this field isn’t exactly loaded with killers. (5) ESPRIT DE KAYJAY A has plenty of Freehold form and Gingras in the bike. (9) BRIONI raced well at the Meadowlands in limited starts.

Race 10

(6) CANDY STASH went to nice miles on the bigger track at Vernon and should be comfortable at the basement condition. (3) BROADWAY ROCKS had bad posts or raced up in class at Yonkers. I wouldn’t be shocked if he raced well at a price tonight. (8) KEYSTONE BOCA broke as the chalk on Tuesday at Yonkers, but has the early zip to make some noise. (5) PEMBROKE SNAPSHOT comes off a decent effort and has hit the board 45% of the time in 218 career starts.

Race 11

(2) LARJON LAURA has no early speed and thus was up against it starting from outside posts on smaller tracks. Three of her four wins this year have come on big tracks. (7) EXOTIC BEACH finds a good spot this week and seems likely to get an aggressive steer from David Miller; must use. (4) LIZZIE’S DREAM is another getting post relief. (10) JANIE BAY is the fastest horse in the race but has questionable form and a bad post; tough call.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 11/13 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 227 - 1083 / $1,560.90 BEST BETS: 28 - 90 / $121.70

Best Bet: IMAGE OF FELICIA (12th)

Spot Play: WORLD PEACE (4th)


Race 1

(1) ALITTLEEASTERMAGIC Sharp in her latest; now moves to the rail slot and has every right to capture her second straight score. (3) HUSTLEONHOME has wheeled off three victories in a row and is a hot commodity at the claim box; quite dangerous. (6) ST LADS MORGAN closed strongly for the show spot in her recent trip; not out of this.

Race 2

(8) MY IDEAL HANOVER She has good tactical speed; post does hurt but this gal moves down in class and that might help her cause; threat at her best. (4) THE RIGHT MOVE Favorable trip puts this gal right in the mix with these. (3) MADDIE D gets post relief and should be closing in the final strides.

Race 3

(6) THEREISAPACEFORUS Gelding is clearly knocking at the door; very consistent pacer can get the job done with Kakaley at the controls. (5) HALL OF TERROR put in a late rally to nail down the show spot last out; capable. (1) MAGIC MANNY has good early zip; retains the rail so watch out.

Race 4

(1) WORLD PEACE makes his return to the fence where this gelding got the job done on September 4th; primed to get back into the winner's circle. (2) JUST PLAIN LUCK Quite sharp in his latest to miss by only a length; main danger. (3) DOUBLE YOUR BET took his speed on his way to victory last out; must be considered in the exotics.

Race 5

(1) MONTREAL PHIL was sent down the road in his last start for all the glory; leaves the 4-hole for the rail so two straight is clearly not out of the question. (3) TONY CHEESECAKE Gelding appears to be the main threat based on his last two victories. (4) ROETHBLISSBERGER put in an even finish in his most recent outing; don't overlook.

Race 6

(2) BAD GIRL VEGAS Pacing miss has been sharp in her last three tries; poised to boss these with a fine-timed drive from Sears. (8) DEREK DELIGHT has scored in her last three; gets a bad slot to work with but is quite capable. (4) BABES CHIP has tactical speed; could have a say in the outcome.

Race 7

(1) BABY REMIND ME gets serious post relief; should show speed from her rail slot and with the right trip, she can take this. (2) HARMONY OAKS QUIKE has hit the board in her last three tries; moves up in class but fits with these; contender. (6) VALENTINA DE VIE Maryland invader gets Dube at the helm and she has put in two seconds in a row; watch out.

Race 8

(8) KRISPY APPLE is back in the 8-hole and this pacing mare has been in the exacta from that slot four in a row; can make tonight a winning one. (4) UF DRAGONS QUEEN very consistent miss must be considered in the exotics based on her sharp form. (7) SELL A BIT N took the pocket route home to victory last time out; beware.

Race 9

(3) TYLER Gelding's last two trips indicates he is knocking at the door; very capable of mowing these down for all the glory. (4) FITS Z TAM has wheeled off two straight victories; will be on the engine once again; dangerous. (6) ONTHECLOCK HANOVER had a 3-hole trip and put in a nice run to get the job done last out; figures to be in the hunt.

Race 10

Will take a shot with (2) PLAYAWAY N to put it all together; can pounce and score over these. (1) KAITLYN RAE could not get to the winner last time around but was very sharp for second money; big threat. (5) IDEAL HELEN was second best in her recent outing; could make some noise in deep stretch again.

Race 11

(2) ENVIOUS HANOVER flashed good speed against much better last time out; this might be the perfect spot for this mare to make her return to the winner's circle given a favorable trip. (3) TIPITINA is back at Yonkers where she was a very game second three starts ago; big player. (1) SHESAIDHESAIDISAID was late on the scene to nail down the score at Philly last time around; not out of this from the rail.

Race 12

(3) IMAGE OF FELICIA Sharp sophomore filly moves up in class but her form is too sharp to dismiss her against this group; can take these down the road. (7) SET ME UP We have not seen this gal since August 21th when she got the job done; has been sharp in Pennsylvania so with that said, she is a big threat in here. (1) CAROBBEAN PACETRY put in a game effort for the place spot last out; could be a factor in this event.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (6th) Hope's Roar, 4-1
(9th) Crea Dan Do, 7-2

Charles Town (1st) Bahala, 6-1
(8th) Bravelikebetty, 3-1


Churchill Downs (2nd) Midnight Lovin, 3-1
(8th) Epic Journey, 3-1


Del Mar (5th) Passionate Emotion, 3-1
(8th) My Silver Cat, 5-1

Delta Downs (1st) Saved by Zero, 3-1
(3rd) Delta Chrome, 8-1

Finger Lakes (7th) Alcanudance, 4-1
(8th) Archer Hill, 4-1

Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Stone Hot, 3-1
(5th) Kaja, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (4th) Laurensdesanimaux, 4-1
(8th) Going Bold, 8-1

Hawthorne (2nd) Buddons, 4-1
(7th) Robinsilverbadge, 5-1


Penn National (2nd) Sweet Rock, 4-1
(6th) Doc of the Court, 6-1

Remington Park (4th) Miz Laramie Blues, 7-2
(8th) Sun King Sister, 8-1


Woodbine (5th) Zinnia, 10-1
(6th) Fuhr Gerry, 7-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's six-pack

-- Bills 22, Jets 17-- Rex Ryan beats his old team here; Ryan Fitzpatrick is having his left (non-throwing) thumb operated on today.

-- Warriors 129, T'wolves 116-- Curry had 46; game was 75-63 at the half.

-- TCU loses star WR Doctson (wrist) for season; big blow for them.

-- Rajan Rondo played all 48:00 in last two Sacramento games; he is only guy this year to play all 48:00 in a game.

-- Braves traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar and prospects; that'll hurt the Atlanta pitchers- he is great on defense.

-- 2016 baseball schedule came out before the regular season ended, so it is odd that the Mets open 2016 in Kansas City.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

765 CAL POLY at 766 UNLV 10:00 PM

Take: UNLV -7

I think I should make it clear right at the outset that I’m not overly optimistic about this edition of the Runnin’ Rebels. Let’s face it, the Rebs haven’t fulfilled expectations the last few seasons and they’re going to have to prove to me they’re more than perhaps an NIT level entry.

The question is not about this UNLV team’s athleticism. This is a roster that’s going to look great in warmups. But there’s no guarantee they’ll run any better offense than they have recently, or whether they’ll finally grasp the idea that the weak side has to be defended when the other team misses a shot. I can’t tell you how many times I wanted to throw a clipboard last season when I saw opposing players successfully tracking down offensive boards simply because they weren’t defended.

But enough on the negative, it’s a new season and here’s hoping this UNLV edition will be more focused on small details. They have a chance to be a good team, and this opener is a great opportunity to start displaying their potential.

Cal Poly is a very well coached team, and Joe Callero believes it’s his strongest group since he took over the reigns with the Mustangs. But the coach’s optimism aside, it’s entirely conceivable that Cal Poly could be one of the teams most impacted by the shorter shot clock. The Mustangs have been all about pace and protecting the basketball. Having to speed things up does not seem as though it’s in their best interests, although Callero insists it won’t be a problem. But I look at numbers, and checking back to last season, it’s crystal clear that the one thing this team did worst was shoot the basketball. So the way I see it, more shots is not a great thing for Cal Poly.

The flip side is that for all their collective flaws, the one thing UNLV is great at is defending two-point field goals. They were again among the best in the nation in this category last year. And that was the sixth consecutive season that the Rebels have been on that leaderboard, so it’s no fluke. Say what you want about other aspects of Dave Rice’s coaching, but one thing that we should be able to bank on is that the Rebels will get in the face of the opposition and force them to make tough shots.

In essence, those two factors are the key for me tonight. Unless Cal Poly has located some guys with better aim, they could have a long night getting good looks against UNLV. After that, it’s just a matter of whether the Rebels can do more than pass the ball around the perimeter and launch missiles. I think they have a shot to accomplish that feat against the Mustangs.

I’ll throw in one intangible to boot. There is simply no denying that Dave Rice is on the coaching hot seat. He needs to win this season, and the consensus around town is that anything short of an NCAA invite will be curtains. That remains to be seen, but one thing I can tell you is that an opening game loss to a middling Big West visitor would not be a good way to quell the critics.

The number on the game showed just where I said it would, so in terms of value, there probably isn’t any. But I’m going to bank on the physical matchup being favorable for UNLV, and I’m laying the points tonight with UNLV.