Friday 11/13/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: 76ers (0-8) at Thunder (5-3)

Date: November 13, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Following a pair of high-scoring victories, the Oklahoma City Thunder must overcome Kevin Durant's absence for at least the next three games.

A visit from the winless Philadelphia 76ers on Friday night could help the Thunder keep their modest win streak going without one of the league's leading scorers.

Durant will miss at least seven to 10 days because of a strained left hamstring suffered in a 125-101 win over Washington on Tuesday. He was limited to 27 games in an injury-plagued 2014-15 as the Thunder missed the playoffs for the first time in six seasons, going 27-28 without him.

"Whenever I feel right and whenever I feel ready to play again, that's when I'll play," Durant said. "It was a long process of me getting back (from last season's injuries) and to get hurt again is unfortunate."

Three players topped 20 points for the Thunder (5-3) against the Wizards after Durant left with 14, about half his season average.

Russell Westbrook recorded his first triple-double of the season with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists. Dion Waiters scored a season-best 25 off the bench and Serge Ibaka had 23.

Waiters also made four of Oklahoma City's season-high 15 3-pointers.

"With Kevin not coming out of the locker room in the second half, I thought out guys came out with great focus," coach Billy Donovan said.

Donovan's team has scored at least 124 points in back-to-back games for the first time since February after averaging 100.3 during a three-game losing streak. Durant's absence could make it difficult for the Thunder to have a third consecutive high-scoring game, but they will face a team that's given up an average of 110.8 points in its last four.

Philadelphia (0-8) is also one of the league's worst offensive teams (92.9 points per game) but had its highest-scoring output Wednesday against Toronto.

The 76ers also gave up their most points in a 119-103 loss. Jahlil Okafor was a bright spot once again with 26 points, and the No. 3 overall draft pick is averaging 20.6 - eight more than any teammate.

Philadelphia has lost 18 in a row dating back to last season, one shy of matching the third-longest skid in franchise history. The 76ers had a league record-tying 26 consecutive defeats Jan. 31-March 27, 2014, and came within one loss of matching the NBA's worst start last season by going 0-17.

"You just can't get into a pity party," coach Brett Brown said. "You have to deal with it and try to figure out ways to try and steal a win."

That victory will be tough to come by in Oklahoma City, where the Sixers are 0-6 all-time. Philadelphia has lost 12 in a row in the series - its longest active skid against any opponent - since beating the Thunder on Nov. 15, 2008.

The 76ers, though, did take them to overtime in the latest matchup March 4 in Oklahoma City, but Westbrook had 49 points and a triple-double in a 123-118 victory with Durant sidelined.

Isaiah Canaan had a career-best 31 points for Philadelphia that day. He's scored at least 17 - about double his career average - in three of the past four games.

Waiters, a Philadelphia native, had 20 points and 10 rebounds in his most recent matchup with the 76ers for one of his two career double-doubles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Trail Blazers (4-5) at Grizzlies (3-6)

Date: November 13, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Memphis' current losing streak started with a defeat in Portland. That was also the Trail Blazers' latest win.

While likely debuting at least one new player, the Grizzlies will try to avoid a fifth straight loss Friday night and extend the Blazers' woes by recording an eighth consecutive home win in the series.

Memphis (3-6) has dropped four straight beginning with a 115-96 loss to Portland on Nov. 5 on the second stop of a season-high five-game trip. The Grizzlies fell 100-84 to Golden State in their return home Wednesday, and their 34.3 percent shooting marked the fourth time they've connected at less than 36.0 this season. They had one such performance in 2014-15.

"We're frustrated, but we're confident at the same time. I know we can pull things together," forward Tony Allen said. "But looking at the standings, and being down (out of playoff position), it should frustrate you. It should hurt inside, because we know we're better than that."

The Grizzlies struggled more on defense against the Blazers, specifically in the middle quarters when they were outscored by a combined 72-48. Damian Lillard had 14 of his team-leading 27 points in a span of six-plus minutes in the third.

C.J. McCollum added 20 points while Courtney Lee was the Grizzlies' top scorer with a season-high 18.

The Blazers (4-5), though, have dropped seven in a row in Memphis. That includes three losses in last season's first-round playoff defeat.

Portland enters this one having dropped three in a row while giving up an average of 113.7 points on 52.2 percent shooting. The Blazers lost 113-101 on Wednesday to San Antonio in franchise great LaMarcus Aldridge's return to Portland, allowing a season-high 56.1 percent shooting.

Lillard scored a team-best 22 points while dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Meyers Leonard dislocated his left shoulder in the third quarter, and his status is unclear.

"It's pretty stiff and sore right now," Leonard said. "We'll see with time, but I'm hoping I can heal quick. It's frustrating, but it is what it isâ?¦ I've done this a couple times but normally it's what they call a subluxed, so it slips in and out.

"This time it was a complete dislocation. We'll see, I'm hoping for a quick recovery. I want to get back to the court and play."

Gerald Henderson had 12 points on 6-of-10 shooting in 18 minutes in his Portland debut following offseason hip surgery.

Mario Chalmers will likely play his first game for Memphis after being traded from Miami with James Ennis on Tuesday. Memphis sent Beno Udrih and Jarnell Stokes to the Heat.

The Grizzlies' Marc Gasol, who had a season-best 26 points Wednesday, also had 26 points along with 14 rebounds in the series clincher in Memphis on April 29. He had 15 points on 4-of-13 shooting and five boards in the loss earlier this month.

McCollum is averaging 24.3 points on 54.7 percent shooting, including a 15-of-23 performance from 3-point range, in his last four games against Memphis.

Lee is averaging 19.0 points while shooting 67.3 percent in his past five such matchups versus Portland.

Memphis hasn't dropped five in a row since Dec. 11-18, 2013.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hornets (4-4) at Bulls (5-3)

Date: November 13, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

The Charlotte Hornets have won four of five behind improved offensive play, especially from their bench.

They've also been taking care of the basketball well, which could be the difference against the more turnover-prone Chicago Bulls at the United Center on Friday night.

Charlotte posted the league's second-lowest field-goal percentage (42.0) and third-worst scoring average (94.2) in 2014-15. Those struggles resurfaced in the new season as the Hornets averaged 93.3 points on 39.1 percent shooting in the first three games.

Since then, however, they are averaging 106.2 points while shooting 47.7 percent.

They held on for a 95-93 home win against the New York Knicks on Wednesday as Kristaps Porzingis' buzzer-beating 3-pointer was ruled to be too late. Cody Zeller converted the go-ahead a layup on an inbounds play with 0.6 seconds left, finishing with 12 points and bouncing back after missing two free throws moments earlier.

The Hornets didn't shoot as well as they had been, shooting 41.7 percent, but committed an NBA season-low five turnovers compared to New York's 17.

"Again, the turnover game - if you're going to win, you can't turn the ball over," coach Steve Clifford said. "It was really probably the difference in the game."

Turnovers have been more of an issue for the Bulls, who are still adjusting to first-year coach Fred Hoiberg's offense and rank near the bottom of the league with an average differential of minus-1.6. Charlotte is plus-2.4.

Zeller, questionable for this contest with a strained left ankle, was one of three reserves to score at least 12 points along with Jeremy Lamb and Jeremy Lin, complementing starter Nicolas Batum's season-high 24 points on 10-of-18 shooting.

Those bench performances helped bail out Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker, who were a combined 4 of 21 from the floor. Six Hornets are averaging at least 10.4 points, and the club's bench is averaging 42.8 points.

Chicago (5-3) has split its last six games but beat up on hapless Philadelphia in a 111-88 victory Monday. The Bulls were 10 of 25 from 3-point range, with Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott hitting three apiece while scoring 20 and 18 respectively. That duo in particular helped Chicago compensate for Jimmy Butler's season-low seven points.

"We needed something like this," said McDermott, who is 19 of 33 from beyond the arc and has started three games in a row. "We've had a couple of good practices but it's good to play against someone else."

Joakim Noah had been listed as a starter but was a late scratch due to his sore left knee, which also gave him issues last season. Noah's 20.6 minutes per game are a career low, though Hoiberg said he got through all of Thursday's practice and would "hopefully" return for this game.

"There's nothing structurally wrong with it," Hoiberg said.

Chicago hopes to get Kirk Hinrich back from a toe injury that has limited him to only one game - he saw five minutes of action at Brooklyn on Oct. 28.

The Hornets have won four of the last six meetings, though Chicago has taken 12 of the last 16 at the United Center and is 3-1 there this season. Charlotte made 14 of 23 shots from beyond the arc in a 130-105 rout at home Nov. 3, with Jeremy Lamb scoring 20 to pace seven players in double figures.

Derrick Rose has played in only three of the teams' last 15 meetings, averaging just 10.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting. He's shooting 36.8 percent this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lakers (1-7) at Mavericks (4-4)

Date: November 13, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

With an emotional home game against public enemy No. 1 DeAndre Jordan behind them, the Dallas Mavericks want to be able to look back and call it a springboard victory.

They could take a first step toward that goal against the woeful Los Angeles Lakers.

The Mavericks will try to extend their longest winning streak in the series to nine Friday night when the visiting Lakers should have Kobe Bryant back as they look to avoid a second straight 1-8 start.

Dallas thrived in a charged atmosphere against the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday when Jordan visited for the first time since reneging on a verbal deal with the Mavericks in July.

Dirk Nowitzki finished with a season-high 31 points, hit 5 of 6 from 3-point range and pulled down 11 rebounds, while Wesley Matthews scored 25 in the 118-108 victory.

"It was a lot of hype in the air, as expected, and it was a fun game against a great, deep team," Nowitzki told the team's official website. "It was just going back and forth. And then there in the fourth, it was almost a playoff atmosphere."

Dallas bounced back from a 120-105 loss to previously winless New Orleans a night earlier. Now it's hoping to gain some momentum from a win over one of the Western Conference's top clubs.

The Mavericks seek a third straight home victory after shooting a season-high 55.3 percent and making 11 of 24 from 3-point range against the Clippers. They've won eight straight overall versus the Lakers, including the last four at American Airlines Center by an average of 17.5 points.

"We can't get it all on the offensive end," Matthews said. "We've got to focus on the defensive end."

The Lakers have shown improvement on the defensive end, allowing 99.8 points per game in the first four of this five-game trip after giving up 116.8 during an 0-4 start. Still, they're on the verge of dropping eight of their first nine for the second straight season after Nikola Vucevic hit a 20-footer at the buzzer in Orlando's 101-99 victory on Wednesday.

Roy Hibbert paced Los Angeles with 15 points after scoring two in a 101-88 loss at Miami a night earlier. Rookie D'Angelo Russell added 14 after he totaled 10 over his previous two games.

Bryant, who has averaged 15.0 points on 31.5 percent shooting over his last five games, is expected to return after missing the past two with a back injury. He's only been able to play in two of the last eight matchups with Dallas, totaling 32 points on 9-of-37 shooting.

The 37-year-old Bryant scored 15 on just 3-of-15 shooting in the first meeting Nov. 1 when Dallas opened the game with a 15-0 run en route to a 103-93 victory at Staples Center.

Nowitzki led the way with 25 points and nine rebounds and Zaza Pachulia contributed 16 and 12 as the Mavericks (4-4) outrebounded Los Angeles 49-42. That could be a key again since the Lakers rank last in the NBA with a minus-7.0 rebounding margin.

"Teams are killing us on the offensive glass," Los Angeles coach Byron Scott said. "Our guys have just got to do a much better job of finishing plays.'

Dallas forward Chandler Parsons is expected to play after resting Wednesday as he continues to work his way back from offseason knee surgery.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockets (4-4) at Nuggets (4-4)

Date: November 13, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

The Houston Rockets' shaky start is quite the contrast from the red-hot fashion in which they opened 2014-15.

Both ends of the floor look like major concerns for Houston heading into Friday night's meeting with the Denver Nuggets at the Pepsi Center.

Houston won 19 of its first 24 games for the league's third-best start last season. The Rockets (4-4) have struggled to find consistency this time around, though, having their four-game winning streak snapped Wednesday in a 106-98 home loss to previously winless Brooklyn.

"I'm worried about our team right now," coach Kevin McHale said. "We haven't caught a rhythm yet. I've said it all since we've been together. We haven't been able to put together long runs of just good, solid basketball."

James Harden scored 23 after finishing with 37 or more in three of his previous four, but even with those dominant performances, the three wins came by a combined 15 points.

Houston is attempting an NBA-high 32.1 3-pointers per game, but was 8 of 34 against the Nets and is shooting 28.4 percent from deep on the season. The Rockets' league-leading 32.7 attempts per game in 2014-15 were much more palatable given their 34.8 3-point percentage.

The defensive play may be even worse, as Houston is surrendering 108.3 points per game. Brooklyn had averaged 88.8 in its previous six contests.

"We have not been very good defensively. We've got guys not doing assignments," McHale said. "A lot of it's effort. Some of it's communication. ... We're not playing very good."

Houston may be able to capitalize on a vulnerable 3-point defense for Denver (4-4) that has allowed its last six opponents to shoot 41.1 percent with 11.2 made 3s per game. The Nuggets won 103-102 at home against Milwaukee on Wednesday despite the Bucks going 10 for 22.

The Rockets were cold from deep in the season's first meeting, though, going 8 for 35 in a 105-85 opening home loss Oct. 28. They shot 34.5 percent from the field with Harden and Ty Lawson combining to go 9 for 31.

Harden, who scored 22, is still averaging 33.0 points in his last five meetings. He's shooting 24.7 percent from long distance this season but is up to 40.0 over his last three.

Kenneth Faried finished a putback of Danilo Gallinari's missed shot with five seconds left against Milwaukee. Gallinari scored 25 and the victory was a boost for a Nuggets team that learned earlier in the day that Wilson Chandler would undergo season-ending surgery for a torn labrum in his right hip.

Chandler has averaged 13.3 points for Denver since being acquired from New York in 2011.

"Thank goodness we had just enough in us to come out of here with the win," coach Michael Malone said.

Nuggets point guard Jameer Nelson is questionable after missing the last two games with a lower-back injury.

Gallinari scored a team-high 23 in the first meeting as Denver shot 50.6 percent and was 13 of 27 from 3-point range. The Nuggets blocked 10 shots while winning for only the second time in eight meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nets (1-7) at Kings (2-7)

Date: November 13, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

The Sacramento Kings and Brooklyn Nets posted rare victories their last time out thanks to outstanding long-range shooting that was surprising in one team's case but not for the other.

The Kings are insisting that some internal turmoil is behind them as they prepare to host the Nets on Friday night.

These teams entered Wednesday with a combined record of 1-14 before Sacramento (2-7) ended a six-game slide with a 101-92 win over Detroit while Brooklyn snapped an 0-7 start with a 106-98 victory at Houston.

The Kings shot a season-high 56.3 percent on 3-pointers, with four from DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is 8 for 19 on 3s after entering the season shooting 15.9 percent in 69 attempts.

"I picked my spots tonight and I was pretty successful," Cousins said.

The added dimension to his game is a major reason why Sacramento is one of the best 3-point shooting teams at 37.9 percent.

Brooklyn is second-worst at 26.8 percent. The Nets shot a season-best 47.1 percent by making 8 of 17 against the Rockets after not being better than 33.3 percent in any game.

"If we go 8 for 22, I'll be happy with 8 for 22, that's what I said before the game looking at prior stats of other teams," coach Lionel Hollins said. "I said, 'Shoot if we can do that, get eight 3s, I'll be happy.'"

The Kings defend the 3-point line well, limiting foes to 31.3 percent shooting. Hollins doesn't expect his team to start firing away since it averages 15.4 attempts for one of the league's lowest marks.

"I hope that's not the equation to us winning, making 3s, but it's always nice to make a certain amount of 3s," Hollins said. "We hadn't even been getting 3s before."

Sacramento prevailed one day after a team meeting that was also attended by upper management, including general manager Vlade Divac. Cousins issued an apology in the wake of a report surfacing that George Karl wanted to suspend the big man for two games after the All-Star center yelled profanity at the veteran coach.

'I'm not sure a panic button was pushed as you all magnified it,' Karl said. 'Team meetings and six-game losing streaks happen. The newness to our team? I don't know. But I thought the last two days have been good for us.'

Cousins had a season-high 33 points with nine rebounds while Rudy Gay made his first five shots and scored 25.

'The best thing that came out of the meeting? This win,' Cousins said. 'But I'll take the hit. If it results from this every night, I'll take the hit and I'll be the scapegoat.'

Rajon Rondo played all 48 minutes for the second straight game, notching his second triple-double with 14 points, 15 assists and 11 boards. He has been forced to shoulder the entire point guard load with injuries to Darren Collison and Seth Curry.

Rondo guides an offense that averages 103.5 possessions per 48 minutes for one of the league's fastest paces. Brooklyn averages 96.7 for one of the more deliberate tempos.

Joe Johnson had 16 points and a season-high 10 assists Wednesday. He leads Eastern Conference players with a 4.6 assist-to-turnover ratio.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Cavaliers (-6, 201) at Knicks – 7:35 PM EST

Since dropping the season opener at Chicago, the Cavs (7-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) have run off seven consecutive victories. Digging deeper into Cleveland’s early schedule, David Blatt’s club has beaten the winless 76ers twice, while playing five of their past six games at Quicken Loans Arena. Cleveland embarks on a three-game road trip that continues to Milwaukee on Saturday night, as the Cavs rallied past the Knicks, 96-86 on November 4, erasing an early 14-point deficit. New York was one of two teams to hold Cleveland below 100 points through eight games, as the Cavs have failed to cover five straight contests.

The Knicks (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) couldn’t quite squeeze out a last-second victory at Charlotte on Wednesday as rookie Kristaps Porzingis’ three-pointer at the horn was a shade late in a 95-93 setback as 6 ½-point underdogs. Derek Fisher’s squad has actually performed better on the road than at home this season, posting a 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS mark at Madison Square Garden with the lone victory coming over the Lakers. New York has played very well defensively after a sluggish start, allowing less than 100 points in five of the past six games, resulting in a 5-1 run to the ‘under.’

Hawks (-1, 206) at Celtics – 7:35 PM EST

Following a subpar performance in the season opener against Detroit, the Hawks (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) have won eight of their past nine games to grab the top spot in the Southeast division. Atlanta bounced back from a 10-point home loss to Minnesota on Monday by rallying past New Orleans on Wednesday, 106-98. The Hawks failed to cover as 13-point favorites, even though Al Horford scored a season-high 26 points and Paul Millsap put up a double-double with 19 points and 16 rebounds. Atlanta took two of three meetings from Boston last season, while splitting a pair of contests at TD Garden.

The Celtics (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) hit the road for two games at Oklahoma City and Houston starting Sunday following Friday night’s contest against Atlanta. Boston lost to Indiana for the second time in a week, dropping a 102-91 home decision on Wednesday as 3 ½-point favorites, as the C’s were held to 4-of-24 shooting from three-point range. Brad Stevens’ team has been listed as an underdog only once in the first seven games, losing at home to San Antonio on November 1.

Blazers at Grizzlies (-7, 196 ½) – 8:05 PM EST

Two struggling Western Conference squads meet up for the second time in eight days after Memphis knocked Portland out of the first round of the playoffs last season. The Blazers (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) picked up a bit of revenge last Thursday in a 115-96 home triumph as 4 ½-point underdogs, the last win by Portland prior to its current three-game losing streak. Terry Stotts' team has cashed six consecutive ‘overs,’ while the Blazers have eclipsed the 100-point mark during each game of this stretch. Portland begins a four-game road trip, which closes out at San Antonio and Houston.

It’s been a tough road for the Grizzlies (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) through three weeks of the season, losing by double-digits at home to last season’s two conference champions, Cleveland and Golden State, while mired in a current four-game skid. In Wednesday’s 100-84 loss to the Warriors, Memphis scored 96 points or less for the sixth time this season, while being limited to 34% shooting from the field. The Grizzlies have yet to cover at FedEx Forum this season, posting an 0-3 ATS mark, with all three home games going ‘under’ the total.

Hornets at Bulls (-7, 199 ½) – 8:05 PM EST

Charlotte (4-4 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) limped to an early 0-3 record, but has bounced back by winning four of its last five games to reach the .500 mark. The Hornets slipped past the Knicks on Wednesday, 95-93, holding their second straight opponent to below 95 points. Steve Clifford’s squad dominated the Bulls the last time they met at Time Warner Cable Arena on November 3 in a 130-105 rout as four-point underdogs. Charlotte jumped out to a 37-20 lead after one quarter and never looked back, shooting 52% from the floor, while beating Chicago for the fourth time in the past six matchups since 2014.

The Bulls (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) have alternated wins and losses in the last seven games, coming off a 111-88 blowout of the 76ers on Monday as a 10 ½-point road favorite. Fred Hoiberg’s team has covered just once in four tries at the United Center, but the Bulls are 3-1 SU at home so far with the lone loss coming in overtime to the Wolves. Chicago owns a perfect 4-0 mark to the ‘under’ at home, while allowing 98 points or less in regulation in each of these contests.

Rockets at Nuggets – 9:05 PM EST

It’s been an odd start for Houston (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) through eight games, losing three games by 20 points each and falling to the previously winless Nets as an 11 ½-point home favorite on Wednesday. But, the Rockets have pulled off underdog victories over the Thunder and Clippers, while scoring at least 109 points in all four wins. Houston’s worst offensive performance of the season came in the opener against Denver, shooting 34% from the floor in a 105-85 setback as 10 ½-point favorites, even though Dwight Howard didn’t play due to a one-game suspension.

After starting the season at 2-4, the Nuggets (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) have suddenly won two in a row, beating the Blazers and Bucks at home by a combined five points. Denver couldn’t cash as 3 ½-point favorites as Milwaukee made a late run, while the Nuggets came out victorious in spite of allowing 53% shooting by the Bucks. The Nuggets have given up at least 100 points in four of the past five contests, as the ‘over’ has hit four times in this span. Last season, the Rockets captured both matchups with the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center, covering both times as a favorite of four points or less.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Orlando won three of its last four games.
-- Pacers won five of their last six games.
-- Cavaliers won last seven games (0-5 vs spread last five).
-- Hawks won eight of their last nine games.
-- Thunder won/covered three of four home games; Durant is out.
-- Hornets won four of their last five games.
-- Rockets won four of their last five games; wins all by 6 or less. Denver won last two games by a total of five points.

Cold teams
-- Jazz lost last two games by total of five points; they covered last four games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last six games.
-- Knicks lost three of their four home games.
-- Pelicans lost seven of their first eight games. Toronto lost three of last four.
-- Celtics lost four of their last six games.
-- 76ers lost first eight games (0-3 vs spread last three).
-- Trailblazers lost last three games, by 17-4-12 points. Grizzlies lost their last four games.
-- Chicago is 1-3 as a home favorite this year.
-- Lakers lost seven of eight games but coered three of last four. Dallas lost three of last five games.
-- Nets lost seven of their first eight games. Kings lost seven of their first nine games.

Series records
-- Jazz won eight of last nine games with Orlando.
-- T'wolves lost four of last five visits to Indiana.
-- Knicks lost four of last five games with Cleveland.
-- Raptors won six of last eight games with New Orleans.
-- Hawks won three of last four games with Boston.
-- Thunder won last ten games with Philly (6-2 vs spread last eight).
-- Grizzlies won eight of last ten games with Portland.
-- Hornets won three of last four games with Chicago; they beat them by 25 at home ten days ago.
-- Lakers lost their last eight games with Dallas (2-6 vs spread).
-- Rockets won four of last five games with Denver.
-- Nets won eight of last ten games with Sacramento.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Utah games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota-Indiana games.
-- Last four Cleveland-New York games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Toronto games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Atlanta-Boston games stayed under.
-- Four of last five 76er-Thunder games stayed under.
-- Last six Portland games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine Chicago games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Lakers-Dallas games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Houston-Denver games went over.
-- Six of last seven Brooklyn-Sacramento games stayed under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'On the hardwood'

After coming up one point short in an NBA regular season contest teams should have a chip on their shoulder and come out looking to make a statement next time they hit the court. In testing out this theory, surprisingly teams do not always have the ability to bounce back after the aggravating event. In fact, since 2012 teams are just 63-91 straight-up, 63-87-4 against the betting line after being nipped by one point exact on the scoreboard.

Breaking those numbers down further points to consistent long term patterns that tells us to 'Play-On' any favorite running the hardwood against a team off a one point exact loss. That's because it will result in a money-making 64.7% hit rate as chalks are 55-28-2 ATS split between 39-20-1 ATS on home court, 16-8 ATS wearing road jersey's.

Although, a winning percentage of 60.0 is considered major success, we can improve the hit rate to a whopping 80.9% by 'Playing-On' any home chalk of 4.5 to 6.0 points taking on a road team off an exact one point loss the previous effort (17-3-1 ATS) and to a lesser extent, 75.0% hit rate backing a road chalk of 4.5 to 6.0 vs a home team off its demoralizing effort (9-3 ATS).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Friday, November 13 2015 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

On the eve of the season, the sportsbooks offered a prop on the first NBA coach to be fired, and Sacramento's George Karl wasn't even a thought then because he had just been hired at the 2014-15 All-Star break. Yet last week when Bovada provided an update on the prop, Karl was +280 favorite. And things have only gotten worse since. Very plugged-in NBA reporter Sam Amick of USA Today is reporting Karl could be fired very soon. Karl and superstar DeMarcus Cousins still aren't getting along; Cousins reportedly directed a profanity-laced outburst at Karl following Monday's loss. Karl wanted to suspend his star two games but was overruled by GM Vlade Divac. And the craziest part of all this is that Divac apparently asked players in a private meeting Tuesday if he should fire Karl. What GM asks his players that? What a mess that franchise is.

Timberwolves at Pacers (-6.5, 204)

Minnesota hosted Golden State on Thursday night and was expecting to get back guards Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins off one-game injury absences. Kevin Garnett was to play Thursday thus likely won't here. Indiana won a second straight Wednesday, 102-91 in Boston. Paul George had 26 points and 10 rebounds. But the Pacers lost rookie big man Myles Turner to a fractured hand. He has been a very solid contributor thus far. Minnesota and Indiana split last year. The Wolves didn't win much on the road in 2014-15 but did at Indianapolis, 110-101. It was only Minnesota's fifth road win in this series (25 games).

Key trends: The Wolves are 5-0 against the spread in their past five on the road. Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its past six overall. The "over/under" has gone under in six of Indiana's past seven.

Early lean: Pacers and under.

Jazz at Magic (TBA)

Utah was in Miami on Thursday, and star center Rudy Gobert was questionable for that. Orlando beat the Lakers 101-99 on Wednesday as Nikola Vucevic returned from a three-game injury absence and hit an 18-foot jumper at the buzzer. He came off the bench for the first time in his Magic career. However, Orlando's best overall player, guard Victor Oladipo, left in the first quarter with a concussion, so don't expect him here. Orlando and Utah split last year. Derrick Favors dominated for the Jazz in those two, averaging 22.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks. The Jazz had won seven straight in the series before a Magic win in Salt Lake City on Dec. 5, 2014. Orlando has lost four in a row at home vs. Utah.

Key trends: Utah has covered nine of its past 11 in the second of a back-to-back. Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its past five vs. the West. The under is 5-1 in the Magic's past six at home.

Early lean: Wait on Gobert and Oladipo, but this should be a defensive battle regardless.

Hawks at Celtics (+1.5, 207.5)

Atlanta beat the depleted Pelicans 106-98 on Wednesday behind 26 points from Al Horford and 19 points and 16 rebounds from Paul Millsap. Boston lost 102-91 at home to Indiana on Wednesday. The C's hit just 4-for-24 from long range. Point guard Marcus Smart returned after missing the previous three games with a sprained left big toe, but fellow starting guard Avery Bradley didn't play after leaving Tuesday's win at Milwaukee with a bruised lower left leg. Atlanta won two of three in the series last year.

Key trends: The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their past five after a loss. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Hawks and under.

Cavaliers at Knicks (+5.5, 203.5)

This should have live betting at sportsbooks with it televised by NBA TV. Cleveland brings a seven-game winning streak into this, rallying from a nine-point fourth-quarter hole on Tuesday against Utah as LeBron James had a season-high 31 points, including 17 in the fourth. The fourth win of this streak was at home against the Knicks on Nov. 4, 96-86. The Knicks led by 15 in the first quarter but were outscored 58-40 in the second half. LeBron had 23, and that was the game he ripped those sleeved jerseys when he was struggling. James is now 12-12 in his career head-to-head against the Knicks' Carmelo Anthony. New York is off a last-second loss in Charlotte on Wednesday as a Kristaps Porzingis winning 3-pointer was ruled too late to count. Arron Afflalo did make his season debut for New York, started and and had 12 points in 28 minutes.

Key trends: The road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 4-0 in the past four.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over.

Pelicans at Raptors (TBA)

Not clear if we will see New Orleans superstar Anthony Davis in this one after he sat out Wednesday's 106-98 loss in Atlanta with a right hip contusion suffered Tuesday. He's day-to-day. New Orleans guard Jrue Holiday sat that out as well just because it was the second of a back-to-back but should play vs. Toronto. The Raptors ended a three-game skid with a 119-103 win at the 76ers on Wednesday. DeMarre Carroll sat out a third straight game with a heel injury. Toronto was swept by New Orleans last year.

Key trends: The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 on the road. Toronto has covered five straight vs. the West. The under is 5-1 in the Raptors' past six vs. the West.

Early lean: Wait on Davis.

Hornets at Bulls (-7, 196.5)

Charlotte beat the Knicks 95-93 on Wednesday for its second straight win. Cody Zeller scored on a layup off an inbounds play with 0.6 seconds left. Nicolas Batum led the Hornets with a season-high 24 points as the Hornets reached .500 for the first time this season. Chicago has been off since a 111-88 win in Philadelphia on Monday. Coach Fred Hoiberg was expected to put Joakim Noah in the starting lineup for Nikola Mirotic in that one, but Noah sat out with sore knees. He's likely to play here but not clear if as a starter. Chicago was destroyed 130-105 in Charlotte on Nov. 3.

Key trends: Charlotte is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in Chicago. The under has hit in five of the past seven meetings there.

Early lean: Bulls and under.

Trail Blazers at Grizzlies (TBA)

Portland lost 113-101 to San Antonio on Wednesday in LaMarcus Aldridge's return to the Pacific Northwest. It was the Blazers' third straight loss, and they also lost starting forward Meyers Leonard to a dislocated left shoulder. He was to be re-evaluated on Thursday but obviously is going to miss quite a bit of time. Blazers guard Damian Lillard lost part of his fingernail in the game, but that shouldn't be an issue. Memphis dropped a fourth straight Wednesday, 100-84 against the Warriors. New Grizzlies point guard Mario Chalmers, acquired from the Heat, wasn't available yet but should debut here. Forward Brandan Wright sat with a knee injury and is day-to-day. Memphis' first loss of this skid was 115-96 in Portland on Nov. 5.

Key trends: Portland has failed to cover its past six in Memphis. The under is 8-2 in Memphis' past 10 after a double-digit loss.

Early lean: Grizzlies will win.

76ers at Thunder (-11, 207)

Philly now is the only team without a win -- no shock there. The Sixers are off a 119-103 home loss to Toronto on Wednesday. It was the team's 18th straight loss dating to last season. One of Philly's only two good players, Nerlens Noel, missed second straight game with sore wrists. He's questionable for OKC (not that it will matter). OKC won in Washington 125-101 on Tuesday but lost Kevin Durant for at least a week with a hamstring strain. Presumably the Thunder will move Dion Waiters into the starting lineup, but expect huge games from Russell Westbrook for the next 4-5 games while Durant sits.

Key trends: The 76ers have covered seven of their past 10 on the road. The over is 8-1 in OKC's past nine following a win of more than 10 points. The under is 4-1 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Thunder and over.

Lakers at Mavericks (TBA)

Los Angeles concludes a five-game road trip here and has dropped the past three. There has been some criticism that coach Byron Scott isn't playing No. 2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell in the fourth quarters of games. Doesn't make much sense to me since the Lakers aren't winning regardless and Russell is the future. Kobe Bryant has missed the past two games with a back injury; might the team hold him out until returning home? Scott said he had a "pretty good feeling" that Bryant will play Friday. Dallas played its best game of the year Wednesday in beating the visiting Clippers 118-108. Dirk Nowitzki had a season-high 31. The Mavs clearly wanted that game to stick it to DeAndre Jordan. Dallas' Chandler Parsons sat that out as it was the second of a back-to-back but should play here. The Mavs won at the Lakers 103-93 on Nov. 1. Dallas jumped ahead 15-0.

Key trends: The favorite is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. The under is 8-3 in the previous 11.

Early lean: Mavs will win easily whether Kobe plays or not.

Rockets at Nuggets (TBA)

Just when I thought Houston had solved its early issues, the Rockets lost by eight at home to winless Brooklyn on Wednesday. The Rockets were clobbered on the boards, allowing Brooklyn 20 offensive rebounds that led to 33 second-chance points. Denver beat Milwaukee on Wednesday 103-102, but the Nuggets have ruled out forward Wilson Chandler for the season. He would have been decent trade bait. Be aware that Houston center Dwight Howard is either sitting this game out or Saturday's at home against Dallas. I would think he would play in the home game and take it easy on the road in the altitude. Houston and Denver opened the season against one another, and the Nuggets pulled a road surprise, 105-85. Howard was suspended for that game.

Key trends: Houston is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 4-1 in the past five in the series in Denver.

Early lean: Wait on Howard.

Nets at Kings (-5, 204.5)

This also is on NBA TV and should have live betting. It's also the two worst-run franchises in the league right now. Brooklyn got its first win of the season in surprising fashion on Wednesday, 106-98 in Houston. Brook Lopez was slightly iffy with a foot injury but played and had 14 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, Karl might not be coaching this game if the Kings hadn't beaten the Pistons 101-92 in Wednesday night to end a six-game losing streak and improve to 2-7. Cousins certainly looked motivated with 33 points and nine rebounds in outplaying Detroit star Andre Drummond. Rajon Rondo played all 48 minutes and had a triple-double.

Key trends: The Nets are 0-6 ATS in their past six playing on one day of rest. The Kings have covered five of their past 19 following a win. The under is 5-0 in Brooklyn's past five on the road.

Early lean: Kings and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Friday's games..........

Iowa State has four starters, 6 of top 8 players back from 25-9 team that also won 99 games in last four years, but Hoiberg moved on to NBA so Prohm is new coach here, coming from Murray State. Colorado slipped to 8th place in Pac-12 LY; they lost 6-7 senior Johnson to an Achilles injury in June.

Charlotte beat Elon last two seasons by 14-13 points; former NBA star Mark Price is new coach at Charlotte; he hasn't been a head coach before. 49ers' previous coach quit for health reasons- they've got some talent, but are picked near bottom of C-USA. Elon went 6-12 in its first year in the CAA; they're deeper this year.

St Joe's won its last four games with Drexel by 13-14-20-3 points; they have four starters back from 13-18 team that went 7-11 in A-14. Drexel has had bad injury problems last few years; they've got four starters back from 11-19 team that went 9-9 in a weaker CAA.

James Madison beat Richmond 51-46 LY, after losing to Spiders by 1-15 points previous two years; JMU has all five starters back from LY when Dukes were 19-14, 12-6 in CAA. Richmond has four starters back from LY's 19-14 team that went 12-6 in A-14 and made NIt quarter-finals- they have 72% of minutes, 67% of scoring from LY.

North Carolina is without star guard Paige (hand) but has three starters back from 26-12 team that went 11-7 in ACC, losing in Sweet 16 of the NCAAs. Temple jumped from 9 to 26 wins LY, lost in NIT semis; they are headed to Puerto Rico tourney next week- they need to shoot better this year to make the NCAAs.

Gonzaga has a strong frontcourt but Sabonis got banged-up when he fell last week and hit his head; Zags' guards are little shaky this year. Pitt has four starters back from 19-15 team that went 8-10 in ACC but lost last five games- they'll start three juniors and a senior. Gonzaga has two good players sitting out this year- they only have nine scholarship players.

Year 2 at Auburn for Bruce Pearl starts against UAB team that stunned C-USA in conference tourney, then upset Iowa State in first round of the NCAAs. Blazers have all five starters back from LY. Auburn have seven new guys but couple of them are talented transfers and one was best JC player in country LY.

Stanford lost three starters from 24-13 team that won NIT; its not good to win the NIT because its not good to be in the NIT. Cardinal lost six Pac-12 games LY by six or less points. Green Bay won 48 games the last two years; their coach moved on so the guy who won national title in D2 is now Green Bay's coach- they lost three starters from LY.

Cal State Fulllerton went 9-22 LY, 1-15 in Big West; they brought in two JC kids to help, including a 5-10 PG and also a kid who scored 16 ppg for Air Force couple years ago. LMU lost three starters from 8-23 team that went 4-14 in WCC; they also brought in a JC PG but have an NBA head coach in Dunlap- once they recruit well they'll be a force in the WCC.

Fresno State lost by 15 at Pepperdine LY; Bulldogs has all five starters back from 15-17 team that went 10-8 in Mountain West. Waves have all five starters back from 18-14 team that went 10-8 in WCC LY- they held teams to 27% from behind arc LY, and their coach got a 5-year contract extension. Fresno had injury problems LY, should be better this year.

Washington went 5-13 in Pac-12 LY and basically blew up their roster; they've got eight new guys, five were top 100 recruits. Texas will play faster with new coach Smart; they've got four starters back from 20-14 team that made NCAAs but lost in first round, not good enough for AD who fired coach Barnes but since was fired himself.

Belmont has four starters back from 22-11 team that went 11-5 in OVC but lost in first round of NCAAs; they've won 26.2 games/year last five years. Bruins also brought in five new guys. Marquette brought in five freshmen after they almost ran out of players LY while going 4-14 in Big East. Media is giving Wojo benefit of doubt; he still has only nine guys on scholarship.

Utah State is 13-2 in its last 15 games with Weber State, winning three in row by 10-6-11 points. Aggies lost one of best players this week when 6-8 soph Collette quit in order to transfer elsewhere. Weber was 13-17 LY, bad year for them, but they've got four starters back, are expected to contend in the Big Sky again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 11
By Joe Williams

2015 PAC-12 STANDINGS
Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under
Arizona 5-5 2-5 5-5 7-3
Arizona State 4-5 2-4 2-7 3-6
California 5-4 2-4 4-5 2-7
Colorado 4-6 1-5 3-6-1 4-6
Oregon 6-3 4-2 5-4 5-4
Oregon State 2-7 0-6 2-7 3-6
Southern California 6-3 4-2 5-4 4-5
Stanford 8-1 7-0 7-2 4-5
UCLA 7-2 4-2 4-4-1 3-6
Utah 8-1 5-1 5-4 5-4
Washington 4-5 2-4 5-4 2-7
Washington State 6-3 4-2 7-2 4-5

Southern California at Colorado (Fri. - ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
USC hits the road as a 17-point favorite against a team they have fared well against the number over the years. The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their past five meetings with the Buffaloes. However, USC is just 7-15 ATS in their past 22 road games and 8-21 ATS in their past 29 games following up a straight-up win. Colorado isn't much better against the number, going just 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games and 0-4 ATS in their past four in Boulder. If you're looking to the total, the under is 6-1 in USC's past seven on the road, and 8-2 in their past 10 Pac-12 battles. The over is 16-5 in Colorado's past 21 aginst a team with a winning record, and 6-2 in their past eight at Folsom against a team with a winning road mark.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

USC at Colorado
By Brian Edwards

-- As of early Thursday morning, most betting shops had USC (6-3 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) installed as a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 61.5 points. The Buffaloes were +600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

-- Colorado (4-6 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) has lost five of its last six games, including last week’s 42-10 loss at home vs. Stanford. The Buffs failed to get the money as 14.5-point home underdogs. The 52 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 55.5-point total. Sefo Liufau connected on 10-of-18 passes for 125 yards and one interception. He ran for 43 yards on seven carries. Star WR Nelson Spruce had five catches for 75 yards.

-- CU has posted a 2-3 SU record at home with a 1-4 ATS mark. As a home underdog during Mike MacIntyre’s three-year tenure, the Buffs own a 5-6 spread record in 11 such spots.

-- Liufau, the true junior who has started since his freshman campaign, is completing 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,307 yards with a 9/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 256 yards and five scores. Phillip Lindsay has run for a team-best 508 yards and five TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Spruce has a team-high 67 receptions for 728 yards and two TDs. Shay Fields has added 36 catches for 543 yards and four TDs.

-- Since losing back-to-back games vs. Washington and at Notre Dame, USC has won three in a row while going 2-1 versus the number. The Trojans started their roll by beating Utah 42-24 at home. Next, they won a 27-21 decision at California as 4.5-point road ‘chalk.’ Then last weekend at The Coliseum, USC beat Arizona 38-30 but failed to take the cash as a 19-point home favorite.

-- USC’s true freshman RB Ronald Jones was the catalyst against the Wildcats, rushing 19 times for 177 yards and one touchdown. Cody Kessler completed 22-of-36 passes for 243 yards and two TDs without an interception. JuJu Smith hauled in eight receptions for 138 yards and one TD. Justin Davis added 85 rushing yards and a pair of TDs on 16 totes.

-- USC has won two of its three road assignments both SU and ATS this year. The Trojans won at Arizona St. (42-14) and in Berkeley, but they were beaten in South Bend. They were ‘dogs against the Irish, so we should note their 2-0 spread record as road ‘chalk.’ However, let’s also point out USC’s abysmal 4-9 ATS mark in its last 13 such situations.

-- For the season, Kessler has completed 69.3 percent of his throws for 2,511 yards with a 20/5 TD-INT ratio. For his career, Kessler has an amazing 79/17 TD-INT ratio. Smith has been his favorite target this year, bringing down 60 receptions for 1,094 yards and nine TDs. Jones has rushed for a team-best 710 yards and six TDs while averaging 8.0 YPC.

-- The ‘under’ is 5-4 overall for the Trojans, 2-1 in its three road assignments. Their games have averaged a combined score of 60.0 points per game.

-- The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for CU, 3-2 in its home games. The Buffs’ games have averaged combined scored of 56.2 PPG.

-- Since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, USC has won all four head-to-head meetings while going 3-1 ATS. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in those encounters. The Trojans won last year’s meeting by a 56-28 count as 19.5-point home favorites. Kessler enjoyed a record-setting performance by throwing for 319 yards and seven TDs without an interception. Smith had four receptions for 104 yards and one TD, while Davis ran for 97 yards on 11 carries.

-- CU’s Fields and LB Ryan Severson have both been dealing with ankle injuries, but both have been upgraded to ‘probable.’ Ryan Moeller, a key member of the Buffs’ secondary, has been downgraded to ‘doubtful’ due to a concussion. RB Michael Adkins (hamstring) and starting OG Gerrad Kough (concussion) are listed as ‘questionable.’ Starting LB Addison Gillam, who was second on the team in tackles (64) and sacks (3.5) in 2014, went down with a season-ending injury in October.

-- USC lost a pair of starting offensive linemen (sophomore OT Toa Lobendahn and senior center Max Tuerk) to season-ending injuries in October. Starting safety Leon McQuay is ‘questionable’ with a knee injury.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Since 2011, Oregon has been an underdog just four times. The Ducks have compiled a 4-0 spread record with three outright wins in those spots. They are catching 10 points at Stanford this weekend.

-- Utah could be down a pair of key players Saturday at Arizona. Junior DE Hunter Dimick, one of the Pac-12’s best pass rushers, is ‘doubtful’ with an undisclosed injury, as is senior center Siaosi Aiono. As for the Wildcats, they may get star RB Nick Wilson back in the mix. Wilson has missed three of the last four games with a foot injury. For the season, Wilson has run for 702 yards and eight TDs while averaging 5.8 YPC. Wilson remains ‘questionable.’

-- Arizona owns a 4-0 spread record as a home underdog during Rich Rodriguez’s four-year tenure. The Wildcats are six-point home ‘dogs to the Utes.

-- Vandy has been a home favorite just five times on Derek Mason’s watch, producing a 1-4 spread record. The Commodores are three-point home ‘chalk’ Saturday vs. Kentucky. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers is 40. Vandy’s games have seen the ‘under’ cash at an 8-0-1 clip.

-- Georgia Tech WR Michael Summers has quit the team. Summers was the Yellow Jackets’ second-leading receiver with 12 receptions for 178 yards and two TDs. He had started seven of the team’s nine games.

-- Oregon State is dealing with injuries to several key players in the secondary going into Saturday’s road game at California. Also, starting QB Seth Collins (‘doubtful’) appears unlikely to play again this week.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: USC at Colorado

USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+16.5, 61)

USC was counted out by many after falling to 3-3 last month, but three straight wins have the Trojans in the thick of the chase for the Pac-12 South title. USC continues that quest in a rare Friday night game, visiting Colorado to open a two-game road swing.

The Trojans found themselves in a 14-0 hole early in the second quarter last Saturday against visiting Arizona but outscored the Wildcats 38-16 the rest of the way to remain a game behind Utah in the South standings. "This team, no matter what happens, no matter what's coming, they keep fighting back," USC quarterback Cody Kessler told reporters. "We know how to handle adversity." Colorado is facing its own adversity, dropping two straight against ranked foes UCLA (35-31) and Stanford (42-10) following a 17-13 win at Oregon State on Oct. 24 that snapped a 14-game Pac-12 skid. "There is a sense of urgency for us to make sure we get some more wins, there’s no doubt, " Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre said at his weekly Tuesday news conference. "There is also a sense of urgency by the seniors, especially with our last home game being now."

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened USC as a 16-point road fave, but that has since moved to -16.5. The total is down to 61 from the opening 61.5.

INJURY REPORT:

USC - CB Jonathan Lockett (Probable, groin), LB Cameron Smith (Probable, shoulder), WR JuJu Smith (Probable, hand), S Leon McQuay III (Questionable, knee), RB Tre Madden (Out, knee), G Toa Labendahn (Out for season, knee), WR Issac Whitney (Out indefinitely, collarbone), C Max Tuerk (Out for season, knee).

Colorado - WR Shay Fields (Questionable, ankle), WR Jay MacIntyre (Questionable, concussion), LB Ryan Severson (Questionable, ankle), Michael Adkins II (Questionable, hamstring), OL Gerrad Kough (Questionable, concussion), DB Ryan Moeller (Doubtful, concussion), LB Addison Gillam (Out for season, knee), OL Jeromy Irwin (Out for season, knee), DL Tyler Henington (Out for season, leg).

WEATHER: Temperatures in Boulder are expected to be in the high-30s. Wind will blow across the field at around 6 mph.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Colorado desperately needs two more wins to become bowl eligible and only has three games left in which to accomplish that. With contests vs. USC on Friday, and at Washington State and at Utah to close the season respectively, the Buffs could be a great "play on" team to end the season; note that Colorado is 2-1 ATS its last three as a home dog in the 14.5 to 17 points range, while USC is already 0-2 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU wins and just 2-8 ATS in the same position over the last three." AAA Sports.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened the Trojans as 16 point favorites at Colorado with USC seeing over 70% of that action. With the overwhelming action on USC to cover we have since gone to -16.5 where we are sitting at over 75% of the action on the Trojans to cover. I can see us getting up to -17 or even -17.5 as we get closer to kick off." Michael Stewart.

ABOUT USC (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 4-5 O/U): The Trojans are 3-1 under interim coach Clay Helton, thanks largely to Kessler who has completed 70.9 percent of his passes with three TDs and no interceptions during the team’s current three-game run. Tailback Ronald Jones II also provided a huge boost against Arizona, rushing for a school freshman-record 177 yards on 19 carries and likely has earned himself extra touches with fellow tailback Tre Madden battling a lingering knee issue. Defensively, USC is led by freshman linebacker Cameron Smith (72 total tackles, three interceptions) and is ranked fourth in the Pac-12 in both scoring defense (22.6 points allowed per game) and total defense (397.1 yards).

ABOUT COLORADO (4-6 SU, 3-6-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U): The Buffs will be attempting to bounce back from the 32-point home drubbing by the seventh-ranked Cardinal – Colorado's most lopsided loss of the season – in which they were outgained 472-231, including 275-83 on the ground. Quarterback Sefo Liufau led the team with 43 rushing yards in the game but also finished with a season-low 125 passing yards and has been intercepted three times with no TD passes the last two weeks. Despite having surrendered 35 or more points in all five of their Pac-12 losses, the Buffs rank in the top half of the conference in season scoring defense (28.3 points) and passing defense (219.3 yards).

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Trojans are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Trojans last 10 conference games.

CONSENSUS: Sixty-nine percent of bettors are backing the Trojans.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Friday's game

USC won its last three games since Notre Dame loss, scoring 35.7 ppg; Trojans are 4-0 vs Colorado in league play, winning 47-29/42-17 in last two visits to Boulder. USC won 42-14/27-21 in Pac-12 road games this year; they're 2-0 as road favorites this year, after being 2-9 in that role in previous three years. Colorado is 1-5 in Pac-12, allowing 35+ points in all five losses. Four of last six USC games stayed under the total. Pac-12 home underdogs are 2-7 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 11
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, Nov. 13

Matchup Skinny Edge

SOUTHERN CAL at COLORADO
Buffs 8-4-1 last eleven vs. line at Boulder though no covers last four at Folsom Field. Buffs no closer than 18 last four years vs. SC, with only one spread cover. Troy 4-9 last 11 as visiting chalk but 2-0 in role TY.

Slight to SC, based on series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

On Saturday I will venture over to Laurel Park where there are six stakes on tap including the $350,000 Frank J. De Francis Dash, a race that used to be one of the premier sprint stakes of the year but is now ungraded.

Laurel Park is my old stomping grounds, as I handicapped the Maryland circuit for a couple of decades and dipped in as an owner for about six years, winning plenty of races but not winning much money.

The De Francis Dash drew a solid field of nine including multiple Grade 1 winner Palace, who is the 9-5 morning line favorite. The Linda Rice trainee won the state bred Hudson at Belmont Park in his last start.

Last year he won three of eight starts including a pair of Grade 1’s at Saratoga, taking the A.G. Vanderbilt and the Forego. He then ran third in the Vosburgh (G1) and was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1).

Rice toyed around with the idea of entering him in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint, but after seeing the way Runhappy won this race, I am sure Rice is happy she picked this spot instead.

His main foe appears to be Stallwalkin’ Dude (5-2), who ran eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in his last start. The gelding has been busy this year, winning six of his 15 starts and has earned four triple digit Beyer Speed Figures.

Trouble Kid (9-2) invades from Philly and has won four in a row for trainer Ramon Preciado since he dipped in and claimed him for just $15,000. He has now won $305,000 this year and won the Valley Forge in his last start.

I will have selections for the race in tomorrow’s column and my Best Plays Report will include some of the stakes action from Laurel Park.

The 11-race program also includes the $100,000 City of Laurel and $100,000 Safely Kept for three-year-old sprinters, the $100,000 James F. Lewis III and $100,000 Smart Halo for two-year-olds, and the $100,000 Richard W. Small for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles.


Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $40,000N2L (12:20 ET)
#3 Northern Screamer 7-5
#4 Reign 9-5
#2 Sing for Beauty 5-1
#1 Your Turn 4-1

Analysis: Northern Screamer tracked the early pace and took over in the stretch, drawing off to win by 3 1/2 lengths in the mud going six furlongs in a race washed off the grass. The third place finisher Smok'n Stroll came back to graduate in her next outing on Oct. 25 against $40,000 foes. She makes her second start off the claim by Asmussen and not a real tough spot for her first go against winners.

Reign set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out at this level. She is now 0 for 3 at this level after graduating in her ninth career start The cut back to six furlongs should suit her. The Jerkens barn is 25% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 3 / 2,4
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 6 Md $40,000 (2:50 ET)
#3 Queen of the Cup 7-2
#1 Flying K C 6-1
#4 Irish Laughter 8-1
#2 Hope's Roar 4-1

Analysis: Queen of the Cup makes her second start off the bench here for the Rubley barn and made a good late run after getting stuck in behind foes in the stretch to finish fourth last out in her first go for the barn. She has a nice pedigree, four of her sibs have won on grass including a pair of stakes winners, top earner top earner Delicate Dynamite ($368,404), and she is out of the stakes winner Majestic Dy ($285,731).

Flying K C tracked the early pace while saving ground and weakened inside the final furlong to finish fifth last out going seven furlongs on turf. The RRod barn adds blinkers here and she has run well going long, checking in second three back at the Spa. The barn is 20% winners when adding the hood.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,4
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R4: #4 Veneto 12-1
R5: #5 D’Bunnyphone 12-1
R6: #4 Irish Laughter 8-1
R8: #1 Umgiyo 8-1
R9: #6 Hangry 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Balmoral Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 9:10 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$4100 - NON-WINNERS OF 2 RACES OR $4,000 LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 7 CAFFEINE KID 7/2


# 8 MACHO BURBON 5/2


# 6 PARTY FALLS 3/1


Look no further than CAFFEINE KID as the wager in this one. Not many knocks against this race horse, let's give him a shot. Is a very compelling choice given the 67 TrackMaster Speed Rating from his most recent contest. With one of the best drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this gelding out of the gathering. MACHO BURBON - Many harness players know speed is is such an important factor. This entrant has credentials with a 74 avg rating. This race horse looks tough considering the high class statistics. Don't throw out of any exotics. PARTY FALLS - Many selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This race horse has credentials with a 70 average figure. This solid standardbred is sent out by the trainer for today's contest with second time Lasix.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 7:05 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$6600 - 5-YEAR-OLDS & UNDER - NON-WINNERS 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 PATIENT I D 4/1


# 1 UP ZET 5/2


# 3 GOGH GOGH 3/1


Feel pretty confident putting mucho dinero down on PATIENT I D. Sometimes you just have to go with an instinct, lean toward this one's chances. That 74 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the last competition puts this nice horse in the mix today. The knowledge group happens to know that when you put Dobson and Krist together really good results are not far behind. UP ZET - The consortium will always toss in a race horse from the 1 position here at Saratoga Harness, always worth a look. The brain trust knows that speed is the key in harness racing. This race horse will unlock our way to a nice score. GOGH GOGH - Certainly should be given a look based on the nice speed figure earned in the most recent competition. This trainer, and the driver Bouchard, go together like cookies and milk. Their results together are outstanding.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 63

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 12, 2015 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER14, 2014 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 SAMANA 8/5


# 9 DIVA DEL SOL 8/1


# 1 MASAI 2/1


SAMANA has a quite good shot to take this race. Ran a solid last race. A solid 68 avg class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group. Has performed very well as of late in sprint races, posting a nifty 51 avg speed figure. DIVA DEL SOL - Meeting a much softer bunch than last time out. Displays reliable Equibase speed figs on average overall when matched with the rest of this field. MASAI - Looks competitive for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. Overall, has one of the top earnings per start in dirt sprint events in this lot.