Friday 10/14/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

I’ll have more football comps the next couple of days, but for tonight I’ll lace up the skates and try an NHL side.

EDMONTON OILERS at CALGARY FLAMES 9:05 PM

Take: FLAMES -128

It’s the back end of a home and home set to start the season as Calgary plays host to Edmonton tonight. The Oilers were 7-4 winners on Wednesday evening, but I expect the Flames to rebound this evening.

If you watched the season opener between these two teams, you’ll likely agree with me when I offer that this is game Calgary could and probably should have won. They enjoyed a territorial edge most of the evening, and they even managed to score two shorthanded goals during the second period to temporarily tie things at 3-3.

The big problem for Calgary in the opener was twofold. First, Brian Elliot was absolutely awful. Elliot is off a tremendous 2015-16 campaign, but his first game as a Flame was a disaster. The man they call Moose needs to be much better tonight.

The other issue was on defense, as new coach Glen Gulutzan broke up what is the best Flames blueline pairing and let’s just say it didn’t work out. Look for the Giordano-Brodie combo to be back together on defense tonight.

I’m certainly not going to draw any conclusions from just one game, and I’ll maintain Calgary is a team with a chance to climb some rungs this season. Edmonton has the amazing Connor McDavid, and there is some offensive talent on the team. But I still believe the Oilers are too porous defensively and in the cage to be a playoff contender.

The home team will definitely be out for revenge this evening, and off what I saw on Wednesday evening, I believe they can outplay the Oilers again tonight. Hopefully, there will be some tightening up defensively and Elliot will not do another impression of a sieve. The price is reasonable enough, so I’ll recommend the Flames on the money line tonight.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

John Anthony Sports

Friday's Free Selection: Chicago Blackhawks + 105

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

Jack Jones

Mississippi State vs BYU

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Mississippi State/BYU UNDER 58

The oddsmakers have set this number higher than it should be at 58 points. That means they are expecting more than eight touchdowns in this game, and I’m just not seeing it.

Mississippi State has played five games this season, and four of them have seen 52 or fewer combined points. The only exception was a 47-35 win over lowly UMass, which doesn’t play defense. They combined for 42 against South Alabama, 41 against South Carolina, 43 against LSU and 52 against Auburn.

BYU has played six games this season, and four of those have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The exceptions were West Virginia and Toledo, which are two teams known for their high-powered passing offenses. They combined for 34 with Arizona, 39 with Utah, 31 with UCLA and 45 with Michigan State.

The season averages for both teams also show there is value with the UNDER. Mississippi State puts up 25.6 points per game and gives up 26.2, which equates to 51.8 points per game on average. BYU puts up 28.2 points and gives up 25.8 points per game, which equates to an average of 54.0 points per game.

Both teams love to run the football as they both run it more than they pass it. Mississippi State averages 197 rushing yards per game on 38 carries. BYU averages 209 rushing yards per game on 39 carries. That’s going to keep the clock moving as each team prefers to move the ball on the ground.

That also makes this a great matchup for the defenses. The Bulldogs only give up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 159 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The Cougars allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

BYU is 30-8 to the UNDER in its last 38 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Mississippi State is 29-13 to the UNDER in its last 42 after two more more consecutive ATS losses. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BYU) – in a game involving two poor passing teams (5.6-6.4 yards/attempt) are 44-14 (75.9%) since 1992. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

Red Dog Sports

Reims vs AC Ajaccio

Bonus Play Draw at +190 when Reims and AC Ajaccio meet in France on Friday at 2pm.

The total is set at 2 so they are expecting a low score. My prediction is that it ends 1-1.

Ajaccio 1

Reims 1

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Friday

I’ll have more football comps the next couple of days, but for tonight I’ll lace up the skates and try an NHL side.

EDMONTON OILERS at CALGARY FLAMES 9:05 PM

Take: FLAMES -128

It’s the back end of a home and home set to start the season as Calgary plays host to Edmonton tonight. The Oilers were 7-4 winners on Wednesday evening, but I expect the Flames to rebound this evening.

If you watched the season opener between these two teams, you’ll likely agree with me when I offer that this is game Calgary could and probably should have won. They enjoyed a territorial edge most of the evening, and they even managed to score two shorthanded goals during the second period to temporarily tie things at 3-3.

The big problem for Calgary in the opener was twofold. First, Brian Elliot was absolutely awful. Elliot is off a tremendous 2015-16 campaign, but his first game as a Flame was a disaster. The man they call Moose needs to be much better tonight.

The other issue was on defense, as new coach Glen Gulutzan broke up what is the best Flames blueline pairing and let’s just say it didn’t work out. Look for the Giordano-Brodie combo to be back together on defense tonight.

I’m certainly not going to draw any conclusions from just one game, and I’ll maintain Calgary is a team with a chance to climb some rungs this season. Edmonton has the amazing Connor McDavid, and there is some offensive talent on the team. But I still believe the Oilers are too porous defensively and in the cage to be a playoff contender.

The home team will definitely be out for revenge this evening, and off what I saw on Wednesday evening, I believe they can outplay the Oilers again tonight. Hopefully, there will be some tightening up defensively and Elliot will not do another impression of a sieve. The price is reasonable enough, so I’ll recommend the Flames on the money line tonight.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

Jack Jones

Mississippi State vs BYU

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Mississippi State/BYU UNDER 58

The oddsmakers have set this number higher than it should be at 58 points. That means they are expecting more than eight touchdowns in this game, and I’m just not seeing it.

Mississippi State has played five games this season, and four of them have seen 52 or fewer combined points. The only exception was a 47-35 win over lowly UMass, which doesn’t play defense. They combined for 42 against South Alabama, 41 against South Carolina, 43 against LSU and 52 against Auburn.

BYU has played six games this season, and four of those have seen 45 or fewer combined points. The exceptions were West Virginia and Toledo, which are two teams known for their high-powered passing offenses. They combined for 34 with Arizona, 39 with Utah, 31 with UCLA and 45 with Michigan State.

The season averages for both teams also show there is value with the UNDER. Mississippi State puts up 25.6 points per game and gives up 26.2, which equates to 51.8 points per game on average. BYU puts up 28.2 points and gives up 25.8 points per game, which equates to an average of 54.0 points per game.

Both teams love to run the football as they both run it more than they pass it. Mississippi State averages 197 rushing yards per game on 38 carries. BYU averages 209 rushing yards per game on 39 carries. That’s going to keep the clock moving as each team prefers to move the ball on the ground.

That also makes this a great matchup for the defenses. The Bulldogs only give up 134 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 159 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry. The Cougars allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.

BYU is 30-8 to the UNDER in its last 38 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Mississippi State is 29-13 to the UNDER in its last 42 after two more more consecutive ATS losses. Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (BYU) – in a game involving two poor passing teams (5.6-6.4 yards/attempt) are 44-14 (75.9%) since 1992. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

Can'tPickaWinner2 · Oct 14, 2016

Jimmy Boyd

Mississippi State vs BYU

Free Pick on Mississippi State/BYU OVER

The value here is on the OVER, as I see these two teams easily combining for 60+ points. Mississippi State’s offense isn’t as bad as it looked against Auburn last week. At the same time, BYU’s defense isn’t as strong as they looked in their win over the Spartans.

Auburn holding the Bulldogs to just 14 points shouldn’t have come as a big surprise. The most points the Tigers have allowed all season is 29 points and that was against Texas A&M. They held Clemson to just 19 points and LSU to only 13.

The key here is that Miss State runs a very similar spread offense to that of Toledo and West Virginia. Two teams that put up some big numbers on the Cougars. The Mountaineers put up 35 points and 481 yards of offense, while the Rockets put up 53 points and 692 yards.

BYU’s defense really benefited from Michigan State’s lack of a passing attack. The Spartans weren’t able to take advantage of a weak Cougars secondary. BYU comes into this game ranked 109th in the country against the pass, giving up 278.7 ypg. Michigan State refused to try an take advantage of this, attempting just 21 passes.

Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald isn’t great, but I’m confident they come out throwing. Just two games ago, Fitzgerald put up 305 yards and 3 scores on UMass. It’s also important to note he’s a threat to run the ball. He’s rushed for 100+ yards twice this season and is averaging 6.1 yards/carry.

You also have to factor in that BYU’s defense might not be as locked in as it was last week. Not only are they coming off a huge road win, but they got another big road game on deck. The Cougars go to Boise State next Thursday. The Broncos are No. 15 in the country and a perfect 5-0 going into Week 7.

On the flip side of all this, I think BYU’s offense will make life miserable for the Bulldogs defense. Mississippi State’s defensive numbers aren’t as good as they look, due to who they have played. Auburn’s the best offense they have played and they aren’t great. Keep in mind the Tigers fumbled on the first 3 possessions of the 2nd half last week or they would have had 50+ points.

You also have to factor in that is a tough spot for the Bulldogs defense. They don’t travel west often and the thin air of Utah takes a lot out of you. I just don’t see Mississippi State’s defense playing well here. Take the OVER!