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Anthony Redd Friday's Card
15 Dime Patriots
Craig Davis Friday's Lineup
20 DIME ---- BREWERS (With Parra and Duke as listed pitchers)
10 DIME ---- GIANTS (With Lincecum and Jimenez as listed pitchers)
5 DIME ---- PATRIOTS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 1/2)
MILWAUKEE BREWERS (With Parra and Duke as listed pitchers) ---- If history is any indication, the Brewers should have no problem taking care of business vs. the Pirates at home today. You see, these two teams have already hooked up 11 times in 2009, and although Milwaukee has only hosted three home games they won all three of them earlier this year. Dating back to last season, the Brewers have beaten the Pirates at home nine straight times by an average of nearly three runs per game. Tonight's Pirates starter, Zach Duke, has yet to face the Brewers in 2009 but came up on the short end of two big Pirates losses in 2008 and I don't see why that should change tonight. I realize he's been pitching better of late, but his career record vs. the Brewers is just 3-4 while his ERA is 4.70 including those two losses last season. Pittsburgh enters tonight's game having taken two of three at home vs. Philadelphia, but that doesn't take away from the fact this team just doesn't win on the road (18-43). Critics may point to Parra's 6+ ERA as a reason to stay away from the Brewers tonight, but if you look at his two career starts vs. the Buccos (1-1, 2.31 ERA), you can see why I think this is the top play of the day.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (With Lincecum and Jimenez as listed pitchers) --- These two teams have given us quite a season battle this year, and the fact that both of them are fighting not only to stay close to the Dodgers in the NL West but also the Wild Card race should offer some good baseball tonight at AT&T Park. For whatever reason, the Giants and Rockies have already played 12 times in 2009, but just three of those first 12 were played in San Francisco... and the Giants have taken two of them. On paper, this game looks like it favors the Rockies for a couple of reasons. First, Ubaldo Jimenez has already faced the Giants three times this year (winning twice) including last week's 4-2 win over Tim Lincecum in Colorado. He's also 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in his last three starts and might be the hottest pitcher the Rockies have going. But anytime I can get Lincecum at this price at home, how can you turn it down? Let's also not forget we're backing the reigning Cy Young Award winner and a guy who had "no hit" the Rockies for 6 innings just a week ago. A couple of untimely hits from the Rockies ultimately led to his demise, but that didn't take away from the fact he dominated the Rockies for 6 innings on the road. Don't expect a lot of runs tonight from either team, but in the end the Giants will muster enough offense to get the much-needed home win.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (If your line is -3.5, buy the 1/2 point down to -3, don't get beat by the hook) --- This play is as much AGAINST the Redskins as it is ON the Patriots. Week 3 of the pre-season is the week when you see the starters for the longest period of time (at least the first half) and when you stack up Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the others vs. Jason Campbell, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley, the clear advantage goes to New England. Look, I realize that Bill Belichick and the Patriots don't care too much about the pre-season, but this year is different because they want to see how far Tom Brady has come. In his first start, Brady completed 10 of 15 passes for over 100 yards and a couple of TDs. In Week 2, he wasn't nearly as impressive against the Bengals. So tonight the offense will revolve around Brady and the passing game, and after watching the Redskins defense for the last two pre-season games, Brady could simply have a field day. Has any team in the pre-season been less impressive than Washington? It seems as if these two teams have hooked up every year in the pre-season but, in fact, they haven't faced off since 2006. In the last four pre-season head-to-head matchups, the Patriots have beaten the Skins by an average of nearly 20 points per game. Since 2002, in Week 3 of the pre-season the Patriots are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS... let's make it 6-2 and 6-1-1 ATS after tonight's blowout.
Dominic Fazzini Friday's plays
10 Dime -- Dodgers (Billingsley) -1 1/2 runs over REDS (Bailey)
5 Dime -- Patriots (minus the points vs. REDSKINS)
DODGERS
NOTE: List only Billingsley as Los Angeles' starting pitcher
The Dodgers are being seriously pressed by the red-hot Rockies in the NL West, which might be a good thing in the long term for Los Angeles.
Instead of coasting toward the playoffs, the Dodgers are now forced to stay focused, and now they get to play their favorite whipping boys this weekend.
Los Angeles has won nine straight games against the Reds, and Chad Billingsley (12-7, 3.73 ERA) has been awesome in four career starts vs. Cincinnati, going 3-1 with a 1.48 ERA.
The right-hander allowed three runs and nine hits in six innings Sunday in a 3-1 loss to the Cubs in his last outing, but he was 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his three outings before that.
Reds starter Homer Bailey (3-4, 6.82) is coming off his best start of the year, when he gave up one run and four hits in seven innings Sunday in a 4-1 victory at Pittsburgh. It was the first time the former first-round draft pick allowed fewer than two runs since 2007.
The right-hander is 1-2 with a 7.13 ERA in six home starts this season. In his only
career start against Los Angeles, on July 21, Bailey allowed a career-high nine runs (six earned) and eight hits in 2 2/3 innings at Dodger Stadium.
Cincinnati is just 13-26 since the All-Star break.
Joe Torre is not going to let Los Angeles lose its focus with Colorado right on its heels. That does not bode well for the Reds' chances in ending their slide against the Dodgers, at least not tonight. Los Angeles should light Bailey up in this one. Take the Dodgers on the run line.
PATRIOTS
This is the week during preseason in which coaches play their first-string players longer than they do in any other exhibition game. It is for that reason that I love New England in this one.
The Patriots' offense managed just two first-half field goals last week in the team's 7-6 home loss to lowly Cincinnati. Tom Brady & Co. are expected to play more than a half tonight, and they're going to want to look sharp in their last extended time on the field this preseason.
The Redskins' first-team offense hasn't produced a touchdown in two exhibition games, and quarterback Jason Campbell has been struggling. Star receiver Santana Moss is not expected to play tonight, which won't make things any easier for Campbell.
Defensive stars Carlos Rodgers and Albert Haynesworth also might not play tonight for the Redskins, which should make Brady's job a lot easier.
New England is traditionally a bad play in preseason games, but the Pats are 5-2 against the spread in the third week of exhibition contests over the past seven years.
Washington is 1-3 straight-up and ATS in Week 3 action over the past four years, and 6-12 SU and ATS in its last 18 exhibition games overall.
Not counting a 2007 game at Baltimore that was canceled in the third quarter because of lightning, the Redskins' last three Week 3 preseason loss have been by a combined score of 116-6, including a 41-0 loss at New England in 2006.
With Brady having a little something to prove tonight, that can't be a good thing for Washington. Take the Patriots to cover the points in this one.
Jeff Benton Thursday's NFL winner ... 15 Dime: ARIZONA CARDINALS (minus the points vs. Packers)
Cardinals
Sometimes in this business, numbers don’t tell the whole story. Well, we’ve got one of those instances tonight. Because all of the numbers – and I mean all of them – point in Green Bay’s direction tonight. The Packers have won their first two preseason games by a combined score of 48-21, with QB Aaron Rodgers (68.4% completion rate, 200 yards, 10.5 yards per pass attempt, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) looking in midseason form. On the other hand Arizona has lost its first two games, with its high-powered offense managing just one touchdown and 16 total points (and Kurt Warner has been less than spectacular, completing just 52 percent of his passes for 133 yards with no TDs and 1 INT).
Then there’s the fact that Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt has displayed absolutely zero desire to win in the preseason. Since he took over in 2007, the Cardinals are just 2-8 straight-up and 3-7 ATS in August, including 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS at home and 0-4 ATS as a favorite. That’s as bad as it gets.
So how can I justify not only laying points in this game with Arizona, but possibly laying more than a field goal? Because again, numbers can be deceiving. First of all, while the Packers have indeed looked tremendous in the first two weeks, they were playing at home and they were facing the Browns and Bills. By comparison, the Cardinals played in Pittsburgh in Week 1 and hosted San Diego last week (doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see which squad has faced the tougher opponents, now, does it?)
Also, I watched the Cardinals’ 17-6 loss to the Chargers and what I saw was a first-string defense that flew to the football constantly and put San Diego QB Philip Rivers on his back four times – that’s right: four sacks of last year’s top-rated QB in three possessions. As for the Cardinals offense, what I saw was a huge helping of vanilla – Whisenhunt didn’t open up the playbook at all. What makes me think he’ll do it tonight? Well, look at what the offense has done in Week 3 of the preseason in Whisenhunt’s first two years: In 2007, Arizona hosted San Diego and put up 31 points, followed by a 24-point effort in Oakland last year.
Yes, the Cardinals lost that game to the Chargers 33-31 (covering as a 2½-point home underdog), but don’t forget how dreadful the Arizona defense was prior to last season. And don’t forget that against Oakland last year in the Week 3 dress-rehearsal, on the road, the Cardinals scored a 24-0 shutout win as a three-point dog. As a matter of fact, Arizona has covered in the all-important third preseason games six years in a row.
During that same span, the Packers are 1-5 SU (2-4 ATS) in Week 3 exhibition games. The one victory came last year in Denver (27-24 as a three-point road underdog), but that was after Green Bay lost its first two preseason games of 2008 and was coming off an ugly 34-6 loss in San Francisco. Obviously, coach Mike McCarthy put a huge emphasis on winning in Denver last year – something I highly doubt he will do tonight after two impressive performances at home the last two weeks.
A couple of final points to make: The Packers may be 2-0 SU and ATS right now, but they haven’t had a winning preseason since McCarthy took over in 2006. And you have to go back to 2002 for the last time the Packers covered three straight games in the same preseason.
Bottom line: With the exception of Anquan Boldin (injury), I expect to see a lot of Warner and the rest of the first-stringers for Arizona tonight and I expect Whisenhunt to do some actual game-planning as he and his staff use this contest as a dry-run for the regular season. At the same time, I think McCarthy’s seen enough from Rodgers to know that he’s ready to go and I don’t expect the coach to expose his franchise QB more than he has to (particularly with two second-year QBs behind Rodgers).
The oddsmakers have this one right, guys. Take the Cardinals and lay the points – and don’t be surprised if we see a repeat of Arizona’s Week 3 whitewash of the Raiders from last preseason.
Scott Delaney Friday ...
5-Dime Dodgers -1' Runs (WITH Billingsley) - This is a great opportunity for the Dodgers to distance themselves from Colorado and/or San Francisco, as those two will beating one another up in Frisco. Cincinnati can be spunky, but it’s a team the Dodgers should destroy this weekend, and it begins with a blowout behind the power of stocky power pitcher Chad Billingsley, who has ….
Billingsley, who features two- and four-seam fastballs with good life throughout the zone, has won 12 of his 19 decisions while the Dodgers have won 16 of his 26 starts. And even though he continues to pitch with a tightly wrapped tender left hamstring, he is in off a quality start against the Cubs that he lost. He allowed his first home run in six starts and found himself pitching out of four jams while striking out five in six innings. Tonight he’ll right the ship against a team he 3-1 lifetime against, to go along with a 1.40 ERA.
The Dodgers have won nine straight meetings, not to mention 17 of the last 20; the three wins they have this season have come by a collective total of 25-10, thus, we lay the run line.
5-Dime Cardinals -1' Runs (WITH Smoltz) - Back in the National League, John Smoltz appears ready to get back to his winning ways. He donned a Cardinals uniform last week, made a mechanical adjustment and tossed five scoreless innings against the Padres while limiting them to three hits and striking out nine.
Smoltz claimed he put his heel closer to the pitching rubber, while the Cardinals said he stopped tipping his pitches as well. Throwing against the Padres at pitcher-friendly PETCO Park didn’t hurt either. Regardless of the reason, he looked great and appeared to come across confident ll over again.
The Nationals, who have lost eight of the last 10 meetings, will play their 11th game in as many days, not to mention their fourth straight on the highway. Since an eight-game win streak, Washington has been mired in a 6-10 slump since Aug. 11. Lay the Run Line, and Smoltz dominates and the Cardinals’ bats come alive to score the run line win.
5-Dime Over Packers/Cardinals - I know exactly what the Packers are thinking: of the Cardinals' top three receivers, only all-pro Larry Fitzgerald will be active. I know Anquan Boldin won’t be playing in this one, but Jerheme Urban has had one of the best camps of any receiver and will see the majority of time opposite Fitzgerald. You don’t think he’s going to make the most of this chance tonight? At home?
Trust me, the Cardinals are taking this game seriously on offense. After all, the team has scored one touchdown in its first two games – and nothing has come from the No. 1 offense. Quarterback Kurt Warner has completed a mere 52.2 percent of his passes for 133 yards while throwing one interception. Fitzgerald has only one catch for 8 yards. And with this one being at home, there is a great emphasis on getting in the end zone this week.
As for Green Bay, well, the Packers are talking up their depth this season. Perhaps that’s why they’re 2-0 and the offense has been productive (12th in yards, third in points, second in rushing). And with the NFL’s two mandatory roster reduction dates - Tuesday’s cut down to 75 players, and the Sept. 5 cut down to the regular-season 53-man limit – just around the corner, I think we’re going to see some offensive dynamics tonight by certain individuals. Love this one to go high.
Tony Weston FRIDAY'S PLAYS 15 Dime Rays
5 Dime Patriots
Rays at Tigers
RAYS - Still in the wildcard chase the Tampa Bay Rays have been playing strong baseball lately, having won 8 of their last 11 games. Tonight, the Rays will make it 9 of 12 as they get over on the road at the Detroit Tigers.
Coming into this game the Rays have gone 12-5 their last 17 games against the AL Central and now face a Detroit Tigers team that’s just .500 its last 16 games and is just 2-3 its last 5 games overall.
Consider, too, the Tigers are just 4-10 their last 14 games against the AL East and have won just 32 of their last 98 games when installed as an underdog.
Detroit now also has to deal with Rays scheduled starting pitcher Matt Garza, who, despite not factoring into any decisions his last four starts has pitched well for Tampa. The team is 3-1 his last four starts and has won 5 of his last 7 starts.
It’ll be another victory for Tampa with Garza on the mound as the Rays get over on the Tigers.
Patriots at Redskins
PATRIOTS - While it hasn’t been an annual meeting between the New England Patriots and Washington Redskins the outcome has still gone one way when these two have hooked up this decade in the preseason.
When these two met in the 2000 preseason the Washington Redskins got over 30-20 as a 6-point favorite. But since then the Pats have gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in preseason meetings against the Skins, including a huge 41-0 beating their last August matchup in 2006. In that four-game preseason stretch New England has beaten Washington by an average of 20.5 points per game.
Consider, too, not only has Washington struggled against the Pats, but the Redskins have had trouble with just about everyone in the preseason in recent years.
Washington has won SU and covered just 6 times its last 18 preseason games and is just 2-4 SU and ATS its last 6 home games in August.
Also, in Week 3 the Redskins have been horrible in recent memory, having gone just 1-3 SU and ATS its last four full August Week 3 games and have been outscored their last three by a combined 116-6.
It’ll be another easy win for the Patriots as they roll past the Redskins.
Trace Adams 1500* - Philadelphia w/Martinez over Hanson Listen, I don't think Pedro Martinez is the better of the 2 pitchers on the mound tonight, but I do think that after watching the Braves lose 2 of 3 at home this week to the lowly San Diego Padres, Atlanta just is not going to be hanging around in the postseason talks much longer.
Sure, Philly has issues with their bullpen, and sure the Phils did lose 2 of 3 to the Pirates, but Philadelphia is back at home for this weekend series, and they have gone 19-7 their last 26 dates at the Bank.
Atlanta had won 5 straight, and 7 of 9 in the season series against the Phillies prior to dropping 2 of 3 in the middle of this month at home, and it is those losses coupled with the uninspired showing against San Diego this week that leads me to believe they will actually make Pedro look good for 6 innings this Friday night.
No knocking Tommy Hanson, as it looks like Atlanta has the makings of another quality starter, but Hanson's 4 game winning streak is about due to be busted.
With the Phils bats a little quiet last night, look for them to wake up in their own ball yard.
I am on Philadelphia to make it a perfect 2-for-2 with my 1500♦s this season!
1500♦ - Philadelphia w/Martinez over Hanson
♦♦Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!♦♦
