Friday 06/12/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marc Lawrence

Play On: NY Mets w/Hernandez

When the Mets send Livan Hernandez to the mound against the Yankees tonight they will do so knowing his 19 wins in Interleague play are the most of any active pitcher in the majors today. With the Pinstripes off a big series with Boston, we'll back BUD, this Big Ugly Dog, here this evening as the Mets improve to 9-1 in Fridays, their best day of the week this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

New York Mets at New York Yankees
Prediction: Over

The Yankees found yet another way to lose to the Red Sox last night. The pen didn't fail them this time, instead it was C.C. Sabathia who couldn't finish what had been a strong start. But coming home to new, hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium will not help out the staff ERA. The Yanks' pen owns a hefty 4.64 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at home this season. That's a bad sign when you consider Joba Chamberlain's home numbers. The former Cornhusker has been rocked for a 5.48 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in five starts in his new digs this season. The team has gone Over in almost 60% of their games at this venue. While pitching has struggled, there has been nothing wrong at home with their bats. The Yankees have averaged 6.5 rpg in 12 home night tilts against righthanders this season. Tonight, they'll take their swings against Livan Hernandez. The veteran righty has "escaped" with a 4.07 road ERA, despite posting a 1.45 WHIP in seven outings. Allowing that many base runners will catch up to him in this park, against this lineup. I also expect the Mets to do their share of damage against Joba. Look for plenty of runs in this one. I'm playing the Over between the Mets and Yankees on Friday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bobby Maxwell

Boston -120 at PHILADELPHIA

Another round of Interleague play kicks off tonight and we've got a FREE winner for you on the Red Sox as they invade Philadelphia to take on the Phillies.

The Phillies finally get home after a 10-game, three-city road trip that had them on the West Coast for the first seven games and then back in New York for the final three, including extra inning games Wednesday and Thursday. They are a tired bunch and expect the Red Sox and starter Jon Lester to take advantage of them tonight.

Lester has been great lately, giving up two runs in his last two starts (15 innings) and striking out 23 with just five walks. He's looking like the guy everyone expected at the start of the season. Saturday he had a perfect game into the seventh inning as the Sox beat the Rangers 8-2.

Boston has won four straight on the road and they just swept their rivals from New York three games at Fenway to make them now 7-0 against the Yankees this season. The Red Sox have won 13 of the last 16 meetings with the Phillies and eight of the last 10 in Philadelphia. Lester beat the Phils last year in Philadelphia, blanking them for seven innings in a 3-0 victory.

Joe Blanton goes for the Phillies and he's been brutal in front of the home fans, with a 6.75 ERA and 22 runs allowed in 29.1 innings.

Look for Boston to knock him around tonight and get another great start from lester. Play the Red Sox in this one.

2♦ BOSTON

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Seattle at COLORADO (-140)

How about that big underdog winner on the Rockies over the Brewers on Thursday? I’m now on a 5-1 roll with Bonus Plays. Let’s make it six out of seven on Friday by once again backing Colorado, this time on the run line (-1½ runs) against visiting Seattle.

With yesterday’s 5-4 win in Milwaukee, the Rocks have now won eight in a row, and all eight wins came on the road. And even though closer Houston Street gave up a three-run home run to Ryan Braun with two outs and two strikes in the bottom of the ninth to turn a 5-1 game into a 5-4 contest, the fact remains that the Rockies’ pitching has been tremendous during the streak, giving up a combined 20 runs, including run totals of 2, 2, 2, 2, 1 and 4 over the past six games.

Tonight’s starter, Ubaldo Jimenez, certainly has the kind of stuff to continue Colorado’s strong pitching run. In his last start, Jimenez held Albert Pujols and the Cardinals to two runs, four hits and one walk while striking out nine over eight innings in a 7-2 road victory. He’s given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, pitching at least six innings in all eight games while posting a 2.67 ERA.

Also, Jimenez has gotten a ton of run support at home this year, with Colorado averaging exactly 8½ runs in his four starts at Coors Field. Compare that with the run support the Mariners have given starter Jarrod Washburn this season: With Washburn on the hill, Seattle is averaging 3.3 runs per game overall, 2.2 runs per game on the road and it has scored total of five runs in his last five starts. Hence the reason Washburn is just 3-4 despite a solid 3.07 ERA, and hence the reason Seattle is 1-4 in Washburn’s five roadies.

Finally, this is a great situational spot. While the Rockies wrapped up their eighth straight win in Milwaukee in the afternoon then took a short trip home to Denver, the Mariners played a night game in Baltimore before boarding a cross-country red-eye flight. Add it all up, and I see no reason not to continue riding the Rockies, this time on the run line. After all, even with last night’s ninth-inning hiccup, six of their eight wins during their winning streak have been by multiple runs.

3? COLORADO -1½

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

For Friday take the money and run with the Mets.

Sure the Mets are a banged up club right now that is not coming close to clicking on all cylinders but this number is still too much in what is a quality visiting squad in a tough rivalry type of a game where both teams will be fighting as hard as teams can fight in the sport of baseball.

Losing Reyes, Delgado and Putz is definitely a trio of bad blows but to still be able to back a competent squad led by studs in David Wright and Carlos Beltran along with one of the best closers in the game in K-Rod and a guy in Livan Hernandez, who say what you want about the old man, is still getting the job done. It's as if the Cuban righthander has rewound the clock a bit and is now pitching as if he was in his 20's. I'm not fooled and realize at some point his slow and slower junk will get knocked around but at this price in a game that he will absolutely get up for I can't help but take the potentially barking dog for sure.

The Yankees are coming off of the emotional and tough series in Boston and now have to try and match that intensity here in another big spot. Sure Arod, Teixeira, Jeter and the Bombers are capable of doing just that as there is a lot of talent there and especially when in the Bronx but they also have crapped in their pants at times this season (i.e. the last three days in Beantown) and are not exactly up against a piece of garbage cupcake at all in these Mets.

More times than not Joba Chamberlain and the Yankees will prevail in this game. But after looking extremely mediocre at best against the Red Sox and being able to back a Mets squad that certainly at the very worst has some real quality pieces I will take my chances with the visitors from Flushing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTi Sports

Oakland Athletics at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants are 8-1 in the first game of a home series and the Athletics are 0-7 in the first game of a road series. Also, the A?s are 0-6 after a one run win and the Giants are a reliable 5-0 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they never led. Consider laying the price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies

Jon Lester of the Boston Red Sox and Joe Blanton of the Philadelphia Phillies have both had disappointing seasons so far, and when you factor in the hitter-friendly dimensions of Citizens Park in Philadelphia, the Over becomes the play here.

Games in this stadium are averaging a combined 10.20 runs this season, and that is with all National League teams. This game involves a hot American League club in the Red Sox that is just not seeing one of its big sluggers, David Ortiz, awake from a season-long slumber, as he has three home runs in the last week alone.

That is bad news for Blanton, who has a 5.46 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP while facing the generally lighter hitting teams of the American League. Blanton has been even worse here at home, where the fact that he allows a lot of fly balls hurts him more. He is 1-2 with a robust 6.75 ERA and a terrible 1.60 WHIP in his own stadium.

Now Lester does appear to have turned things around, and he does have an amazing 23 strikeouts in his last two starts. However, the fact that he has thrown 222 pitches in his last two starts may hurt him a bit here, and he still has not stepped things up on the road, where he owns a 6.14 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in six starts away from home.

Finally, the Over is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these clubs in interleague play, and two of their three meetings last year reached double-digit run totals. Look for more of the same tonight.

Pick: Red Sox/Phillies Over 9.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee may have lost four straight, but they still hold a slight lead in the NL Central standings as they begin their interleague series against the White Sox. These two have not faced one another in eight seasons. The White Sox are coming off a 4-8 homestand and will now have to endure a nine-game interleague road trip. Chicago is scoring just 4.1 runs per game against right-handers this season and are three games under .500 on the road this year. Over the past three seasons, the Brewers are 71-38 at home in the first half of the season. Go with the home Brewers here.

Play on: Milwaukee

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tommy Gill

Twins / Cubs Under 8.5 for 3 units

This is my Degenerate play of the day today with the Twins and the Cubs going under the Total. Playing a Total at Wrigley field is trickey most of the time because alot of them has to do with the weather and good spots. I believe today is a good example for both with the wind blowing in at 8 MPH and 2 solid pitchers on the mound today. Slowery for the Twins (8-2 4.2 ERA) against Randy Wells (0-2 1.86 ERA) is the matchup with the starters. In Slowery starts he is 1-6 his last 7 games to the Over Under and Wells is 2-4 to the Over Under with both the Overs being the bullpen blowing there lead. Both pitchers are pitching really well there starts this season and with the Cubs on a 3-7 to the Under run not scoring well at all there last 20 games and getting a Twins team that is pathetic on road 9-20 SU I see this as a good spot for degenerate play for sure.

Under is 8-2 in MIN last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 20-7 in CHC last 27 overall.
Under is 10-1-2 in Twins last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 6-1 in Twins last 7 interleague games as an underdog.
Under is 8-2 in Twins last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 interleague games.
Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 home games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

St. Louis at Cleveland

St. Louis starter Joel Pineiro has a 5-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 4-1 vs. AL Central teams and they 4-1 their last 5 Interleague games. The Redbirds are 5-2 their last 7 games vs. lefty starters. Cleveland is 2-8 vs. NL Central teams and they are 7-21 off a win. The Indians are 1-7 their last 8 home games vs. winning teams and they are 1-4 their last 5 Interleague games. PLAY ON ST.LOUIS (Pineiro vs. Huff)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

San Diego Padres vs. LAA Angels
Play: San Diego Padres

We are getting solid value here tonight with the Padres who face Matt Palmer (5-0, 4.06 ERA). Chad Gaudin (2-4, 5.01) get's the start for the Padres and he knows this Angels team very well after facing them several times with Oakland. Gaudin allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last 2 starts against the Angels and I look for him to have a lot of success again against the Angels tonight. The Angels bullpen has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.53 and their bullpen just got hammered by Tampa Bay for 5 runs in their last game after Santana gave up 6 earned. The Padres are 7-1 in their last 8 games after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game and the Angels are just 1-5 in their last 6 home games against a team with a road record below .400. Take the San Diego Padres

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies +110

I'll back the Phillies at an excellent price at home tonight. I know the Phils have been a better road team thus far, but they are worth a go here against the southpaw Lester as they are one of the best teams in the bigs at hitting left handed starting pitching. In fact, the Phillies are 15-6 against southpaw starters this season. They are 12-2 in their last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a left-handed starter period. Plus, the Phillies are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Back the Phillies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George

Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago Cubs

Winners of 12 out of their last 17 at home, I like them tonight with Randy Wells on the hill at home. Although he is 1-2 in his last 3 starts, he had no run support in those games, and he tossed out a 2.15 ERA in those 3 games. The Cubbies are solid at home. Keven Slowey is 8-2 on the year for the Twins, but in my opinion, I feel is due for a loss. The bullpens are about even and Chicago at home in Interleauge is 6-2 their last 8.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Ryan

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals
Play:Kansas City Royals

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Kansas City Royals as they host the Reds slated to start at 8:10 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-16 making 23.2 units since 1997. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.600 to 1.700 on the season and with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 15 games. KC is also a strong 26-14 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 2 seasons. Reds are not in a solid role noting they are 94-144 (-45.8 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1997. Luke Hochevar has pitched his best baseball of the season recently. In his last start he went 6.7 innings allowing 2 ER and just 4 hits. He has an excellent slider that he throws 21% of the time and 17% of all first pitch offerings. He throws slider 32% of the time to RH hitters and uses a solid change up 16% against LH hitters. KC skipper Hillman is 26-14 (+12.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Rickenbach

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Under 10

Because this is an inter-league match-up in a hitter-friendly park this total is higher than it should be relative to the strength of pitching we expect to see here. Hiroki Kuroda of the Dodgers absolutely looks like he's back to pre-injury form. He's been dominating. As for Vicente Padilla of the Rangers, he may match the Dodgers hurler pitch for pitch in this one! Padilla, seemingly fired up by knowing that the Rangers were trying to get rid of him (but had no takers!), is capable of shutting down opponents when he's "in the zone" like he is now. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Texas on Friday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Cincinnati Reds -104

Edge goes to the Reds tonight as they have played their best ball on the road this season. The Royals are really struggling, having lost 11 of their last 13 games, and I don't expect Hochevar to give them much of a chance here. The Royals are 2-8 in Hochevar's last 10 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record, and 0-6 in his last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. The Reds are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in this series and 8-2 in their last 10 vs. the American League Central in interleague play. Bet the Reds here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ATS Consultants

Cleveland Indians / St. Louis Cardinals OVER 10

Hopefully the seagulls will stay away tonight, although the Indians owe a big thanks you for their win over KC on Thursday. Rookie David Huff takes on Joel Piniero in this interleague matchup.

Huff (1-2, 8.71) has struggled thus far, but the Tribe seem to be sticking with him as he looks like a future #2 or #3 starter. Huff got his first big league win last out, and hopes to continue the momentum tonight when Pujols and the Cards come to town.

St Louis got a lucky break last night as well, winning after a late rally highlighted by a key 2 run error by Marlins CF Cody Ross. St Louis sits 1/2 game back of Milwaukee in the NL Central and looks to Piniero to keep the winning ways going.

Should be a slugfest tonight at Jacobs Field in the first meeting in years between these two franchises.


Florida Marlins / Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8.5

Roy Halladay (10-1, 2.52) goes for his league leading 11th win of the season tonight as the Marlins visit Toronto in this interleague affair. Halladay is one of the hottest pitchers in the game, winning his last 7 decisions with a 2.03 ERA in that span.

Florida will counter with Ricky Nolasco, who pitched really well in his last start, allowing only 2 runs in 7 innings in what was his best start of 2009. Nolasco won 15 games last year, but was so bad early this year that the Marlins sent him down to Triple A New Orleans last month. He responded there and hopes to build off of last week’s effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Freddy Wills

Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play Tampa Bay Rays -1½

Well we went 4-0 yesterday and we are on fire just check out our records page! Again we continue to be successful and I have given you 4 in a row on Bonus Plays yesterday we got a little bit of luck with the Cardinals coming back late to win! That makes up for all the free picks we got hosed on last week.

Today we have inter league play! The story in inter league play is over juiced lines favoring the AL. Anyway our free pick will come on the AL Rays, but not on the over juiced money line which has moved from -221 to -250 in most places. We'll be taking the run line here!

As I mentioned in my article on the run line the Nationals have lost 85% of their games on the road by more than 1 run. Basically when you think they are going to lose take their opponent on the run line it has paid off 85% of the time when they are on the road. Of course it has to fall into place where the home team wins games at home by more than 1 run and we get exactly that with the Rays. 77.8% of the Rays wins have been by more than one run at home this year!

Reasons why to back the Rays: Nationals are 13-45 their last 58 road games. Stammen is 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA in his last 3 and the Rays I think are starting to get hot here 20 runs in their last 2 games all at home. They are a dominant team at home 18-12 this year and Garza who is winless in his last 3 despite throwing a 1.06 WHIP will be hungry! Expect a gem out of a pitcher who is pitching well but not getting wins. Everyone is a competitor they want the stats too. Nationals just .193 average last 5 scoring 2.57 runs/9. While the Rays .277avg 6.82 runs/9 last 5 vs. RHP. Also worth adding their bullpen has a 1.08 ERA last 5 which they may not even need!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jrtips

SEATTLE vs. COLORADO

The Colorado Rockies look to ride the momentum from their longest road winning streak as they go for their ninth straight victory tonight in the opener of a three-game interleague series against the Seattle Mariners.Colorado (28-32) finished an 11-game road trip with eight straight wins and will put their winning streak on the line at Coors Field, where they're 9-14. The Rockies are 9-13 against Seattle (30-30) who has won four of five after defeating Baltimore 6-3 on Thursday night. Seattle will go with starter Jarrod Washburn (3-4, 3.07 ERA), who's winless over his last three starts despite allowing two runs over 19 innings. Washburn held Minnesota to one run in six innings in a 2-1 victory Saturday but the Mariners had dropped the left-hander's previous seven starts even though Washburn had a solid 3.95 ERA in that stretch. Washburn is 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA in four games and three starts against Colorado.Ubaldo Jimenez (4-6, 3.91) will take the ball for the Rockies. The right-hander has delivered seven quality starts in his last eight outings, including a 7-2 win at St. Louis on Sunday in which he held the Cardinals to two runs and four hits while striking out nine in eight innings.Jimenez, who's 2-2 with a 4.38 ERA at Coors Field. Both of these pitchers have been solid all year and over their last 14 starts combined, these starting pitchers are giving up lees than 3 run per game.

TAKE UNDER 9 RUNS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LARRY NESS

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have played without the suspended Manny Ramirez since May 7, but LA still owns MLB's best record (40-21) and the biggest division lead of any team (Giants are eight games back). The Rangers have been a major surprise in 2009 and despite losing six of their last 10 games, are 34-25, 4 1/2 games clear of the Mariners and the Angels in the AL West. However, Josh Hamilton is on the DL and it's beginning to take its toll. Texas did edge Toronto 1-0 on Thursday, avoiding being swept in a rain-shortened three-game series. However, Thursday's only run was driven in by a sacrifice fly and it's hard to ignore that the Rangers scored only four runs in three games vs the Blue Jays, while batting .176 as a team. Scoring against LA's Hiroki Kuroda (1-1, 1.62 ERA) won't be easy. He was the team's Opening Day starter but then spent two months on the DL with an oblique strain. Kuroda has given up just two ERs and five hits over 11 innings in two starts since his return and I see him giving the Texas lineup all it wants, tonight. The Rangers will counter with Vicente Padilla, who is 4-3 with a 5.22 ERA. He has given up three ERs or less in five of his last six starts but let's remember that the Dodgers lead all of MLB with a .280 team BA and are averaging an excellent 5.28 RPG on the road. Let's also not forget Padilla's 5.22 ERA or the 4.83 ERA of the Texas bullpen (ranks 27 of 30 teams). I'd be making the Dodgers a bigger play but I'm a little worried about the team's terrible interleague mark recently, especially LA's 5-28 record in AL parks since 2005. However, I believe that's "old news," as this team has made me a believer. Take the Dodgers.