Friday 06/05/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Scott Rickenbach

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
PICK: Under

Only two games went over the total in the National League yesterday and these two teams were involved in the two games. Both of the games were very uncharacteristic of what should be expected from these two offenses and that is helping to give us value with the under in tonight's match-up. Yesterday afternoon, in their first game since the Nate McLouth trade, the Pirates inexplicably exploded for eleven runs against the Mets. As for the Astros, they allowed ten runs to the Rockies as their game flew over the total.

The Astros only scored three runs yesterday and Karstens of the Pirates has been in solid form this season. As for the Pirates, their offense only managed one run in two of their three games against the Astros last weekend and we're looking for more of the same here. Mike Hampton of the Astros continues to "have their number" and, until that changes, one should not expect much from Pittsburgh when they are matched up with him. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Houston on Friday night.

 

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LARRY NESS Bonus Play:

Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Chicago Cubs

Carlos Zambrano was supposed to make his return to the mound last night in Atlanta but the game was rained out. He was suspended for six games by Major League Baseball on May 28, a day after his meltdown in a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh (you've all seen it). Zambrano is going for his 100th career win and he can't be unhappy about giving it a go in Cincinnati. Zambrano will take a scoreless streak of 22.1 innings at Great American Ballpark into tonight's game, where he has won his last three starts. He's 8-2 with a 2.61 ERA in 12 career starts at Cincinnati. That's good news for the Cubs who have struggled on the road as of late, just ending a seven-game road losing streak in Atlanta Wednesday night, winning 3-2 in 11 innings. The Reds have struggled at home this year, going only 13-12 while allowing 5.12 RPG. It's unlikely Micah Owings is capable of helping out much, as the pitcher who is better known as a hitter, is 3-6 with a 5.10 ERA in nine starts this season for the Reds (team is 4-5). His home ERA is 5.57 this year and over his last three outings (two of which came at home), he's allowed 20 hits and 13 ERs over 13.2 innings (8.56 ERA). Take Zambrano and the Cubs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Frank Jordan

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is sending the ageless one in Jamie Moyer who has an up and down season thus far with a 4-5 record and an era North of 6. Jamie Moyer did win last time out breaking a four game losing streak going 6 innings allowing just one run. The Dodgers counter with Eric Milton who is 2-0 and pitching great. Philadelphia is 20-6 on the road while the LA Dodgers are 20-7 at home. Look for a tight game with the Phillies coming out on top 5-4 in the end. Play Philadelphia

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Russ Laribee

Minnesota at Seattle
Pick: Seattle-1.5 +151

The Minnesota Twins struggles on the road, have left them with the fewest road wins in the American League with just 6. They will start Francisco Liriano, who continues to struggle, trying to come back from surgery. Liriano is pitching to a 2-7 record with a 6.60 ERA, and has failed to get out of the 4th inning in each of his last 3 starts. He has allowed 25 hits in just 12 innings over those 3 starts, walking 6 in the process, or 31 baerunners, which is close to 3 per inning. The Mariners will send their rising star to the mound in Felix Hernandez. Hernandez is pitching to a 3.41 ERA, recording 72 strikeouts along the way. Twins have to face the fact they are 6-16 on the road for the season, with a struggling pitcher, and going up against an all-star caliber pitcher. I'm going with the Mariners here on the runline.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Texas Rangers

We are getting solid value here tonight with the Texas Rangers who are 10-2 in their last 12 games after scoring 5 or more runs in their previous game. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after a loss and they are 4-0 in Kevin Millwood's (4-4, 3.23 ERA) last 4 starts in game 1 of a series. Millwood has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of 3.96 while averaging 7.3 innings per start and he should get the run support he needs tonight with the Rangers who are averaging 6.0 rpg over their last 7 games. The Red Sox are just 1-4 in their last 5 games against a team from the AL West division and Brad Penny (5-1, 5.63) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 6.14 over 4 starts while averaging just 5.5 innings per start. Grab the Value with the Texas Rangers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free Selection from The Vegas Steam Line
Free Winner for Friday: Take CHICAGO CUBS (Zambrano) -125 over Cincinnati

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

(908) Atlanta Braves -$113

(Listing Jurrjens and Gallardo)

The Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens 5-2
record is actually very impressive when you factor
in that during a stretch of six starts this season the
Braves offense only scored him a total of nine runs.
Jurrjens has shown the ability to shutdown opponents
in close games and I look for him to do the same to
the Milwaukee lineup tonight. The Brewers are only
1-4 in Gallardo's last five starts as a road underdog.
I like the Braves to pick up the win here.


2009 Free Selections Record 83-68 (55.0%)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

C.C. Sabathia is starting to live up to his fat (no pun intended) contract for the New York Yankees, while David Price is handling his transition to a starting pitcher well, so look Under in the Bronx Friday evening.

After a slow start with his new team, Sabathia is again up to his old habits, reeling off five consecutive Quality Starts. Perhaps just as importantly, he has been a workhorse, pitching at least seven innings in those five starts, which takes the shaky Yankees middle relief out of the equation here. He has been brilliant vs. the Rays, tossing seven straight Quality Starts against them.

Price was a vital member of bullpen during the amazing Rays World Series run last season, even picking up s few saves. He has always been groomed to be a starter however, and after going just 3.1 innings in his first starts this season due to a high pitch count caused by six strikeouts and five walks (he still allowed only two runs and four hits), he was stretched out a bit vs. the Minnesota Twins last Saturday.

Price went 5.2 innings that day, allowing only one run and five hits with an impressive 11 strikeouts. Sure, he will probably not go beyond six innings until he is stretched out fully, but that is not necessarily a bad thing as the Tampa Bay bullpen ranks fourth in the American League with a 3.97 ERA.

Given that Sabathia should eat up enough innings to nullify the biggest threat to this Under, the New York long relief, Under looks like the play tonight.

Pick: Rays/Yankees Under 9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al McMordie Bonus Play:

Atlanta/Milwaukee Under

At 7:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves 'under' the total. This is a pitching matchup of two very good 2nd year players: one being a Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo and the other being Atlanta's Jair Jurrgens. Gallardo has had run support problems this season, although he seems to find a way to win a lot of those games. And tonight's venue, Turner Field, hasn't always been that kind to the Atlanta hitters. In a recent nine-game home-stand, the Braves were shutout twice and only scored one run on two other occasions. And the Brewers seem to have the exact same problem when they're away from home. In its last nine road games, Milwaukee had only scored a total of 36 runs. The Brewers have gone 'under' the total in 34 of their last 50 vs. the NL East teams, and I look for a low-scoring game tonight with Gallardo and Jurrjens on the mound. Take the 'under'.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Arizona at San Diego

Arizona starter Doug Davis is 10-4 in his career against San Diego. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 their last 5 road games vs. losing teams and they are 4-1 in Game 1 of series. Arizona is 5-2 vs. a pitcher that has a WHIP of over 1.30. San Diego is 3-12 of a day off and they are 6-16 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Padres are 3-7 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game and they are 3-8 their last 11 games off a loss. PLAY ON ARIZONA + w/Davis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jr Tips

PHILLIES vs. DODGERS

Jamie Moyer (4-5, 6.75 ERA)takes the mound for the first time since his milestone win as the Phillies continue a four-game series with the Dodgers tonight. Philadelphia (32-20) got a five-hitter from Cole Hamels on Thursday night in a 3-0 victory over Los Angeles (37-19). The NL East-leading Phillies didn't allow an earned run for the second straight contest and have a 2.71 ERA during a seven-game winning streak. They haven't won eight straight since May 2006. of this series. Moyer struggled against the Dodgers on May 13, surrendering seven runs and eight hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 9-2 defeat. He's 3-7 with a 6.51 ERA in 12 starts against Los Angeles, including a loss in Game 3 of last season's NL championship series. The Dodgers starter Milton (2-0, 3.14) earned consecutive wins after going nearly three years without one. On Sunday night, Milton gave up two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings of Los Angeles' 8-2 win over the Chicago Cubs. Milton is 1-2 with a 5.56 ERA in four starts versus the Phillies. Los Angeles' lineup has really missed suspended outfielder Manny Ramirez lately, managing just two runs against starting pitchers in its last four games. The Philies are the hottest team in baseball right now and the Dodgers are struggling to score runs and Milton will have trouble keeping the Phillies off the bases.

TAKE PHILLIES +120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Karl Garrett

Texas +120 at BOSTON

G-Man is on an 11-5 comp play run heading into Friday night's card, and tonight on the diamond I say let's take a shot with the underdog Rangers.

We all know Texa has some serious lumber in their lineup, and we also know that Brad Penny sports a season ERA of 5.63. Chances look good for the Rangers to get untracked in the Fenway band-box tonight against Penny.

Kevin Millwood counters with an ERA of just 3.23, and I don't see any reason the AL West leaders can't steal a game to open the weekend in Beantown?

Boston has won their last 4 which means they are "due" for a loss, so let's side with the invaders from Texas, as the Rangers knock the ball around the yard a little, and take the first game of this weekend set.

Texas the call!

2♦ TEXAS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

VEGAS EXPERTS

Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics

The Baltimore Orioles may have gone OVER the total in 16 of their 24 road games this season, but they have stayed UNDER the number in five of their last six trips to Oakland. Baltimore starter Jeremy Guthrie has a 2.55 ERA in three career starts against the A’s. Oakland lefty Dallas Braden has had even more success with a 1.50 ERA in his three starts. Braden has gone UNDER the total all seven times over the last two seasons at home with a money line of $1.00 to $1.50. When the total is between 7 and 8.5 he has stayed UNDER the number in 11 of 14 games. Go with the UNDER

Play on: UNDER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MTi Sports

Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers

The Angels are 13-4 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and 3-0 THIS SEASON as a 140+ dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start. The Tigers are 4-18 after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers. Consider the Halos.

Play on: LA Angels

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Milwaukee at Atlanta
Play: Under 8

Gallardo has an ERA of 3.18 while Vazquez has an ERA of 3.58. There has been 23 unders amd 8 overs in the last 31 meetings in Atlanta and the under has prevailed 39 times in the last 55 meetings. Look for the under to profit on Friday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy The Moose

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Over

The Cubs have played the over in 2 of their last 3 games. The offense hasn't been overly impressive of late but tonight vs. Owings they'll look potent. The Over is 7-2-1 in Chicago's last 10 games as a road favorite. The over is 5-2 in Dempster's last 7 starts as a road favorite. The Reds have played over the total in 7 of their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds have played the over in 7 of Owings last 9 starts. His last 4 home starts have played over the total. Play the over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matt Rivers

For Friday let's once again back the Greinke's!

There is no doubt that the Toronto Blue Jays are clearly better than the Kansas City Royals and being up North is not a bad thing for Cito Gaston's squad but I am going to ride the potential Cy Young award winner today in Greinke, even at this dreaded road chalk price.

Ricky Romero is okay and a guy that can hold his own in a spot such as this against the fading Royals but Greinke has been God all season long and until I see anything change I can't help but back the righty at what is a fairly cheap price. We have not seen dominance like this in quite some time and at this price how can you do anything else but take your chances on the visitors!?!?!?

If Greinke finally comes back down to Earth today then we are in a boatload of trouble as Wells, Hill, Rios and the Jays can bash the ball and do field the clear superior squad. But at this point with the way Greinke has been dominating opponent after opponent I can't help but ride the wave.

At some point Greinke will get hit as he just has to be it the Law of Averages alone. But until we get to that point I'll lay a small amount with arguably the best hurler on the planet right now.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game Hunter

METS +114 (2.5 UNITS)
HOUSTON -126 (1.75 UNITS)
ST. LOUIS -1.5 RUNS (+130) (1.5 UNITS)
ARIZONA +112 (1.5 UNITS)
TEXAS +130 (1.5 UNITS)
TAMPA BAY +190 (1 UNIT)
CLEVELAND +121 (1.5 UNITS)
BALTIMORE +112 (1.75 UNITS)
OVER MINN/SEA 8 RUNS (-102) (1.75 UNITS )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

MLB | Jun 05
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox:

Boston Red Sox -135

Bonus Play
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -135
At 17-6 on the season, Boston is one of the premier home clubs in baseball. They'll get my support at Fenway at this price tonight. The Red Sox have had Texas' number, going 9-2 at home and 15-5 overall against the Rangers over the last 3 seasons. While Brad Penny's ERA is 5.63 on the season, he has proven to be a winner with a 5-1 mark. The good news is that the Red Sox are 4-0 in his home starts in 2009 and that he has brought his ERA down to 3.50 over his last 3 starts. Millwood has not gotten the run support he's needed on the road as the Rangers are just 1-4 in his road starts this season. The Rangers are 7-23 in Millwood's last 30 road starts and 3-11 in his last 14 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 82-35 in their last 117 games as a home favorite and 11-2 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the BoSox tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR O'Donnell

MLB | Jun 05
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees:

New York Yankees -1½+105

Tonight's Bonus Play is those bronx bombers -1.5 runs.... lay the lead