I really liked Houston at 3. At anything higher, it's your call. If you tail someone off a forum like this, take your gambling seriously. When I used to tail RX posters years ago(and still do with some of the good ones here), I'd check in a few minutes daily. Or twice a day. I learned a lot from their write-ups and often got the better lines by playing it early. Anyways, good luck to a first time poster and sorry about the lecture.
Missed all of the games. Houston loss killed a winning day. Can't believe they could handily beat Oklahoma, Louisville, and FSU in last year's bowl game, and lose to a defensively fading, offensively one-dimensional SD State team. With a spread that ended up around 5, I'm guessing I'm not the only one surprised. Oh well… on to the Tulsa game.
3* Colorado St -7 1H This game will be played in Boise, in likely breezy, cold weather with a good chance of snow. Colorado State became an early game juggernaut at the end of the season with a great running game. They have three guys, and QB Nick Stevens, that are all good running threats. They took apart SD State and New Mexico, and scored about 45 per game in their last 5 games. Coming off the long break, I like their running game vs. a pass heavy Idaho offense that runs the ball fairly poor. Yet Colorado State QB, Nick Stevens, is having his best stretch of passing in his 3 years at CSU. Stevens has been sacked only 4 times, and has been good about not turning over the ball. Idaho is also unattractive due to a defense that has been hammered vs. better competition, and has played an easy Sun Belt schedule in their last 5-6 games. In my opinion, Idaho is possibly the least talented bowl team on the schedule. They won their last 3 games on a 10-3 margin of turnovers and I doubt that kind of advantage will be the case here. This is a team that has lived and died on the arm of QB Matt Linehan. He's the guy CSU will focus on to limit.
3* Ohio/ Troy- under 24.5 1H Have you noticed the many unders in the earlier bowl games? Other than some real high-powered offenses, and/or including completely useless defenses, I've noticed this in recent years in the pre-December 31st bowl games. I think part of the reason is that teams in the weaker conferences build up their offensive stats vs. really inferior competition. If you look at some of the Sun Belt and MAC defenses, it's ugly in the bottom half teams….NMSU, Texas State, Bowling Green, Akron, Buffalo, ULM, Ball State…and so on. I also think that the long lay-off tends to throw the offensive timing off, and it takes a half or so to get it back- especially at game speed, not practice reps. But I do like this Troy defense. They are tough vs. almost any off competition. 3.4 ypc vs. the run, 15th in passing completion %. And Ohio is a run-heavy offense that doesn't have a lot of success vs. better competition. Their QB, Greg Windham, has only thrown 36 passes since mid-October due to injuries. He's not all that accurate anyways.
Ohio's defense will face a statistically better offense, but the Bobcats showed much improvement defensively since the beginning of the year. They held the WMU and Toledo offenses, the 2 premier MAC offenses, to 26 and 29 points- far below their average. Troy QB, Brandon Silver, is an accurate passer, but the Troy offense is a short passing/ running offense. Their key runner, Jordan Chunn, also faded late in the season. His stats are inflated because of 3-4 really poor run defenses. I like HC Frank Solich's experience here in prepping for this bowl game.
Ohio's defense will face a statistically better offense, but the Bobcats showed much improvement defensively since the beginning of the year. They held the WMU and Toledo offenses, the 2 premier MAC offenses, to 26 and 29 points- far below their average. Troy QB, Brandon Silver, is an accurate passer, but the Troy offense is a short passing/ running offense. Their key runner, Jordan Chunn, also faded late in the season. His stats are inflated because of 3-4 really poor run defenses. I like HC Frank Solich's experience here in prepping for this bowl game.
Lean: Wyoming +10 The Wyoming coach has had a lot of success of getting the most out of his players. Wyoming also has the better running game now that Taysom Hill is out. The BYU QB, Tanner Magnum, is such an x factor tomorrow that I couldn't lay anything substantial on this game. He could be lights out and give BYU a much better passing game, or be turnover prone and kill BYU's chances.
Hi o, always appreciate ya. I'm leaning Cowboys, also. Notice some sites up to 11, so public thinks otherwise. My biggest concern is that Cowboys are light along the defensive front. If they get pushed around all day, it will be added pressure on the offense. BYU has been off for a longer time period, so maybe a little rusty. Therefore, I'm considering Wyo. 1H. Good luck and thanks.
