3* Tulsa -11.5 Good chance I add on to this play or make a 1H bet. This matchup fits plenty of factors for a Tulsa blowout. Tulsa is the far superior running team, which makes a big difference in bowl games. In fact, this Tulsa run attack has looked fantastic for the last 2/3 of the season. Only Ohio State and Houston, two top 5 run defenses, have been able to keep the Tulsa run game in check. UCF, another good run defense, however gave up over 300 yards to Tulsa on the ground. Tulsa also has a decent passing game, a senior QB who has started for 3 years, and an improving defense. HC Montgomery is very good offensive coach who was considered for some other coaching vacancies, but has decided to stay along with his entire coaching staff. His players have to like this kind of loyalty and likely will play a high effort game in their coming bowl.
CMU is a team going in a different direction. They lost 4 out of their last 5, and their only win was against Ohio- which lost it due to turnovers. Losses: EMU, Miami OH by 20, Kent and Toledo. CMU also got hammered by WMU, a team similar to Tulsa in that they have a great running game, and a very capable QB. When coach Dan Enos left for Arkansas to be the OC, he left behind a coaching staff that has underachieved. Their new coach, now in his 2nd year, has been going through chemotherapy during the season, and his players seem to be "off" due to it. CMU is a poor running team that depends highly on the passing of QB Cooper Rush. Rush was once considered a pretty high draft prospect, but his star has fallen. Maybe his OL has been the problem, with 33 sacks given up, and being unable to run block well, but Rush was a better QB last season. CMU just fits the profile of a bad bowl team- Weak defense, poor running, and a mediocre coaching staff.
Tulsa is 8th in rushing, 10th in total yards…and that's with the Ohio State and Houston game thrown in there. I'd be on this for more, but the point spread allows for a dreaded back door cover. Will be back when the 1H line is out.
CMU is a team going in a different direction. They lost 4 out of their last 5, and their only win was against Ohio- which lost it due to turnovers. Losses: EMU, Miami OH by 20, Kent and Toledo. CMU also got hammered by WMU, a team similar to Tulsa in that they have a great running game, and a very capable QB. When coach Dan Enos left for Arkansas to be the OC, he left behind a coaching staff that has underachieved. Their new coach, now in his 2nd year, has been going through chemotherapy during the season, and his players seem to be "off" due to it. CMU is a poor running team that depends highly on the passing of QB Cooper Rush. Rush was once considered a pretty high draft prospect, but his star has fallen. Maybe his OL has been the problem, with 33 sacks given up, and being unable to run block well, but Rush was a better QB last season. CMU just fits the profile of a bad bowl team- Weak defense, poor running, and a mediocre coaching staff.
Tulsa is 8th in rushing, 10th in total yards…and that's with the Ohio State and Houston game thrown in there. I'd be on this for more, but the point spread allows for a dreaded back door cover. Will be back when the 1H line is out.
Forgot to add this: I'm not sure what the recent ATS record is for mid-range MAC teams, in bowls, but if memory serves me, it's bad. CMU's 2nd game of the season upset of Okie State seems to be their only statement game, and if they hadn't had that lucky play/ blown call there at the end, CMU would have had almost a complete washed-out season.
2* Appalachian St. +1/2 1H After the long layoff, I'll take the team that runs more consistently, and depends less on the pass. Also, Toledo has not been very good stopping the run, and will likely take a while to adjust to the App. St. multiple sets and options. App. State has a very good OL, and this offense tends to slowly work their way down the field, sometimes monopolizing the time of possession. App. State also a capable passer in senior Taylor Lamb, who is also an option in the run. The Mountaineers actually have 2 go-to RBs that combined for over 2200 yards and can break off a long gainer. Toledo has a dynamic offense, for sure, but I'm betting they struggle a little early on with their timing oriented passing offense. Toledo is not at all excited about playing a Sun Belt team in Montgomery, Alabama. Appalachian State is also not altogether thrilled about going there, but this is only their 2nd bowl game in history, many seniors, and they at least appreciate getting a decent opponent. Last year, Appalachian State clearly outplayed their opponent, Ohio, in their bowl game, but 3 turnovers led to 17 points(a fumble TD and a pick 6), and they won but didn't cover.
These FCS games have limits in the offshore books, but I really like:
1* EWU -8.5
1* EWU/ Youngstown St. -under 55 (both -120) News out today says that 4-5 Youngstown St. players are likely suspended for this game, including 3 large contributors. Last week, their starting RB only got one carry because of a "coach's decision". Youngstown beat Wofford last week, a playoff team that never passes the ball, and their one dimensional offense was a liability. Also, YS travels across the country to beautiful Cheney, WA and is playing this game in zero degrees temperatures. Youngstown has struggled offensively vs. better competition, and after EWU's 38-0 dismantling of Richmond last week, I'd say that they are facing pretty good competition here. EWU's QB Gabe Gubrud has been out of sight great in big games this year.
Have more on the under than the straight bet.
1* EWU -8.5
1* EWU/ Youngstown St. -under 55 (both -120) News out today says that 4-5 Youngstown St. players are likely suspended for this game, including 3 large contributors. Last week, their starting RB only got one carry because of a "coach's decision". Youngstown beat Wofford last week, a playoff team that never passes the ball, and their one dimensional offense was a liability. Also, YS travels across the country to beautiful Cheney, WA and is playing this game in zero degrees temperatures. Youngstown has struggled offensively vs. better competition, and after EWU's 38-0 dismantling of Richmond last week, I'd say that they are facing pretty good competition here. EWU's QB Gabe Gubrud has been out of sight great in big games this year.
Have more on the under than the straight bet.
2* Memphis +5 This play is under the category of bowl games being a sort of one game season, and that in the flow of the regular season, WKU might be the play/ or no play. WKU lost their excellent and popular HC, Jeff Brohm, to Purdue. Now the WKU players and coaches are all making nice about how they are moving on, but I think Brohm's loss is a major downer for this team. They have already had 3 decommits, and I think the players already there liked playing for Brohm so much, that they might be off their game/ prep a bit. There's also the likelihood of some of the coaches joining Brohm at Purdue. Asst. coaches and interns desperately trying to keep their recruiting class together. Then there's the half empty stadium for their Conference USA championship game with La. Tech. If I was there, I would have gone- dang, what a great matchup.
Memphis played a very easy first 3 games, but then their conference schedule was much tougher than WKU's. Memphis also defeated Temple and Houston, so they have it in them to play their A game for this one game season. Memphis also has one of the best special teams unit in the nation. WKU has some excellent skill players on offense, and they will be the focus of Memphis coaching staff, which is totally intact. Memphis can win this game, and the points may not come into play- but I'll gladly take them anyways.
The over is a popular play here, but I'd be cautious- bowl games rarely go over 80. The defenses are finally well-rested, and the offensive timing can be off after the layoff.
Memphis played a very easy first 3 games, but then their conference schedule was much tougher than WKU's. Memphis also defeated Temple and Houston, so they have it in them to play their A game for this one game season. Memphis also has one of the best special teams unit in the nation. WKU has some excellent skill players on offense, and they will be the focus of Memphis coaching staff, which is totally intact. Memphis can win this game, and the points may not come into play- but I'll gladly take them anyways.
The over is a popular play here, but I'd be cautious- bowl games rarely go over 80. The defenses are finally well-rested, and the offensive timing can be off after the layoff.
6* ODU -4 Both of the head coaches deserve recognition and praise for turning these two teams around. EMU's HC Creighton took a thankless job coming to EMU, a team that recruits terribly and usually only wins 1-3 games per year. He got his team to 7-5, which even in the MAC is an accomplishment. But that being said, too much of the success of this bowl game is laid on the shoulders of QB Brogan Roback. EMU has a paltry running game, and their receivers are steady, but not explosive by any means. EMU also has a fairly poor defense, average by MAC standards, but against teams like ODU, they struggle. Creighton and this program has dealt with a lot, and going to the Bahamas is well-deserved, but I can't seeing them staying with ODU here. EMU has possibly the worst attendance in the MAC, a dissatisfied faculty and student base because of the subsidies needed to keep the football program afloat. Recruiting to Ypsilanti is very difficult. QB Roback was suspended early this season for breaking rules, and his maturity was questioned. There's no doubt he is talented, but I much prefer the ODU senior QB David Washington in big games like this. Washington is a dual threat that is smart and a good decision-maker.
ODU has a huge advantage in the running game- with a speedy, elusive RB in Ray Lawry, and a bruiser in Jeremy Cox. They average, combined, over 6 yards per carry. Washington also has better receivers than EMU, although Roback is the better pure passer. ODU also a very tough defensive front 7, a defense that really came on in the last 2/3 of the season. But one of the main reasons I really like this play is HC Bobby Wilder. He built this team from scratch, is a great motivator(which helps in a 1 game season), and just agreed to a contract extension. Wilder is a long-time offensive innovator who also worked wonders with this ODU offense this year. His players will play very hard for him. They know he could have taken a job elsewhere, but chose to stay. Both teams are experiencing their first bowl game. The Bahamas is not a bad place for that, and I am only slightly concerned about focus in such an exotic place for these young men. Could be true for either team.
ODU has a huge advantage in the running game- with a speedy, elusive RB in Ray Lawry, and a bruiser in Jeremy Cox. They average, combined, over 6 yards per carry. Washington also has better receivers than EMU, although Roback is the better pure passer. ODU also a very tough defensive front 7, a defense that really came on in the last 2/3 of the season. But one of the main reasons I really like this play is HC Bobby Wilder. He built this team from scratch, is a great motivator(which helps in a 1 game season), and just agreed to a contract extension. Wilder is a long-time offensive innovator who also worked wonders with this ODU offense this year. His players will play very hard for him. They know he could have taken a job elsewhere, but chose to stay. Both teams are experiencing their first bowl game. The Bahamas is not a bad place for that, and I am only slightly concerned about focus in such an exotic place for these young men. Could be true for either team.
