Frankinho's Soccer Bets

[Frankinho]

ENG-5: Ebbsfleet vs. Burton Albion, 20x 1.75 @ Ebbsfleet or draw
- Burton Albion is on top of the league with an 8 point advantage on Cambridge and still 3 matches played less. Ebbsfleet is almost down at the bottom in 21st position and are currently inside the relegation zone. However with a win tonight they can climb up to the 17th position and they also have 3 to 5 games to play compared to their most important contestants. Basically Ebbsfleet needs the points and Burton can cruise to the title anyways. That said Ebbsfleet did not lose at home the last 6 games, while Burton on the road did not manage to win in their last 3 games.

ENG-3: Tranmere vs. Leicester, 20x 1.75 @ Tranmere or draw
- The same bet as above for this one. Leicester being the best team in the league, but are already quite a bit in front of the other teams. Leicester will most likely promote and Tranmere wants to qualify for the play offs. Tranmere did not lose at home for 16 games now, except for their loss in extra time against Peterborough last December. Leicester away is pretty solid too, so a draw is the most likely outcome, but I can also see Tranmere winning this.

ENG-2: Burnley vs. Crystal Palace, 20x 2.15 @ Burnley
- With a win tonight Burnley can get themselves back into the play off spots for the end of the season. They are a pretty solid home team and even got to win against Tottenham in January. Crystal Palace on the road can be called anything but solid. They have only one away win in 8 games.

ENG-NL: Swindon Supermarine vs. Bashley, 20x 2.25 @ Swindon
- Swindon is on a 7-game non losing streak at home, while Bashley only managed to get 2 draws in their last 8 away games. With quite some games still to play due to postponements they can still climb the rankings a lot in case they keep on winning. I can't see why the odds are that high.

ENG-1: Fulham vs. Blackburn, 25x 2.35 @ Fulham
- With two home defeats in a row Fulham saw their 10-game non losing home streak come to an end Hull with a goal in extra time, followed by an 0-4 defeat against Man Utd in the FA Cup. Blackburn is the perfect opponent to get back on the right track with only two wins in their last 11 games on the road.

CL- Porto vs. Atletico Madrid, 10x 3.50 @ draw
- Porto is going to do what they can do really good, defending. After the four goal draw in Madrid all they need is a scoreless draw and there's no team that can make that happen better than a Portuguese team. Sure Atletico have been performing really well against both Barcelona and Real Madrid, but those are very attacking teams, Porto is not. 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, are the most likely outcomes for this game to me, all of them are going to be good for Porto.

CL - Barcelona vs. Olympique Lyon, 10x 7.50 @ Lyon
- A tough game, in which the bookies favour Barcelona too much in my opinion. I also believe Barcelona is going to win, but a skillful Lyon team is not to be pushed aside with 1.40 odds. There is quite some value in a draw or a sneaky Lyon win, so I'm just taking the 10 bucks risk to maybe sneakily make 75 bucks out of it.

CL - AS Roma vs. Arsenal, 10x 3.35 @ draw
- Arsenal is in the lead and is gonna qualify. This game is pretty much the same as the Juventus vs. Chelsea game in my opinion. Yesterday I went for a Chelsea win, it was a draw, today I will go for a draw, so probably Arsenal will win. I can't see Roma score a goal in this game at all, 0-0 or 0-1.

CL - Manchester United vs. Inter Milan, 20x 1.75 @ Man Utd
- I might be totally mistaken, but to me Man Utd is going to win this game. They might even do what Liverpool did to Real yesterday and totally overclass them. They actually already did so in Milan, but were unable to score. Today they will score a couple and Inter is not able to recover from these.

CL - Manchester United vs. Inter Milan, 20x 2.80 @ Man Utd -1
- Same as above hno:

CL Parlay: odds 28.73, stake 5 @ Man Utd / Barcelona / Por-Atl draw / Rom-Ars draw

 

[chriscol]

i like your Tranmere and Fulham play and your look atthe Barca game...not so sure with ManU...it looks too easy, but dont forget the Mourinho factor. he usually beats fergie somehow

BOL tonight and also in Baseball (although today s game doesnt matter)

 

[chelseafan1]

i like the lyon bet ... im thinking either lyon or inter today but no bet for me

 

[elsewheree]

i like the lyon bet ... im thinking either lyon or inter today but no bet for me

good choice there,i made that mistake

 

[Frankinho]

HUN-C: Honved vs. Kecskemeti, 15x 1.75 @ Honved +11.25
BRN-1: Sitra vs. Al Ittifaq, 10x 3.30 @ draw -10.00
SUI-1: FC Aarau vs. Grasshopper GZ, 15x 2.15 @ Grasshopper -15.00
GER-3: Babelsberg vs. Wilhelmshaven, 15x 3.30 @ draw -15.00
ENG-5: Ebbsfleet vs. Burton Albion, 20x 1.75 @ Ebbsfleet or draw +15.00
ENG-3: Tranmere vs. Leicester, 20x 1.75 @ Tranmere or draw +15.00
ENG-2: Burnley vs. Crystal Palace, 20x 2.15 @ Burnley +23.00
ENG-NL: Swindon Supermarine vs. Bashley, 20x 2.25 @ Swindon +25.00
ENG-1: Fulham vs. Blackburn, 25x 2.35 @ Fulham -25.00
CL- Porto vs. Atletico Madrid, 10x 3.50 @ draw +25.00
CL - Barcelona vs. Olympique Lyon, 10x 7.50 @ Lyon -10.00
CL - AS Roma vs. Arsenal, 10x 3.35 @ draw -10.00
CL - Manchester United vs. Inter Milan, 20x 1.75 @ Man Utd +15.00
CL - Manchester United vs. Inter Milan, 20x 2.80 @ Man Utd -1 +36.00
CL Parlay: odds 28.73, stake 5 @ Man Utd / Barcelona / Por-Atl draw / Rom-Ars draw -5.00

DAY 8-6 / Parlays 0-1 +75.25
Y2D 306-329 + Parlays 27-69
Bankroll: $ 3600.46 +1100.46

 

[jimmy0607]

Good Job Frank , O man that last parlay would've been so good

 

[pitpit]

Sorry about missing the Arsenal/Roma game and the parlay, but you and I cashed big on United! Hoorah!

 

[Frankinho]

Sorry about missing the Arsenal/Roma game and the parlay, but you and I cashed big on United! Hoorah!

Seems like yesterday was a pretty good day for most of us here at the forums. Meaning that it was most likely not a good day for the bookies

 

[Frankinho]

AZE-C: Neftchi Baku vs. Karabakh Agdam, 15x 3.00 @ Karabakh
- Karabakh is the better team with 10 points more than Neftchi in the rankings, however Neftchi had a surprising win over 3rd placed Simurq last weekend, while Karabakh had a surprising loss against Standard Baku two weeks ago. They also lost last weekend against leaders FK Baku, but that is no shame. With 3 losses in 15 away games Karabakh should be winning this clash against a Neftchi team with 5 losses in their 9 home games this season, and only 2 home wins so far.

QAT-1: Al Khor vs. Al Wakrah, 15x 2.10 @ Al Khor
- What can I say, Al Khor has only lost 1 game in their last 15 games, against 2nd placed Al Gharaffa. OK, the majority of these games were a draw, but of course there were also some wins included. Their home record is about the same. On the other hand Al Wakrah has not won any of their last 6 games, managing only one draw. They are on a 3-game losing streak on the road as well. Everything points into Al Khor's direction for me.

CLIB: San Martin vs. Nacional Asuncion, 20x 1.85 @ San Martin
- San Martin is a very solid home team with 2 losses in 21 games and perhaps a bid of a poor team on the road. Also in Copa Libertadores they prove to be a home team with a win over River Plate. In 2008 they also won against America and River Plate, while losing to Uni Catolica. On the road they lost all of their 4 games in 2008 and 2009. Nacional won 0-5 on the road against El Nacional Quito, but lost against River Plate and were trashed 0-3 at home against Club Nacional. They also end up losing on the road in their own league pretty often for a top team.

CLIB: Colo Colo vs. LDU Quito, 20x 1.80 @ Colo Colo
- Both teams managed to beat Palmeiras, but both teams lost to Sport Recife, making them of equal strength you would say. Colo Colo is quite a strong home team while LDU Quito is also performing better at home than they do away. Colo Colo's home favour will make the difference in this game.

BRA-CA: Americano vs. Mesquita, 20x 1.80 @ Americano
- It looks like easy money to me on this game, so I come up with a 20 dollar bet. I wanted to go higher, but I don't know these crazy Brazilian leagues well enough to be really secure. Americano has been winning, drawing and losing a bit in their last matches, while Mesquita was mainly losing their games with a few exceptions. In their last 11 home games Americano won 8, drew 2 and lost only one. Mesquita managed to get to 6 draws in their last 16 away games, meaning they lost the other 10. Americano is going to win this one.

ARG-2: Atletico Tucuman vs. Defensa y Justicia, 25x 1.90 @ Tucuman
- The fifth placed team at home against the ninth placed team with only 3 points between them. Tucuman did not win any of their last three games, but considering their home record of 1 loss in 16 games you can back them in against a Defensa y Justicia side that has not won a single game on the road since August 2008. Their last game on the road, was a 1-1 draw against leaders Chacarita Juniors though.

Parlay: odds 2.18, stake 25
BRA-P: Santos vs. Paulista, 1.50 @ Santos
BRA-P: Sao Paulo vs. Mirassol, 1.45 @ Sao Paulo
- Both Santos and Sao Paulo can be considered top of the league and very solid teams at home. They should normally easily win these games. The only problem I see here is Mirassol's away performances, which are far better than their own home performances. I don't think they're good enough to hold Sao Paulo though.


UEFA Cup coming up soon.

 

[Frankinho]

CSKA Moscow vs. Shakhtar Donetsk, 10x 3.55 @ draw
- Two teams facing each other that have not lost a single game since November 2008. Sure, their leagues are/were on hold for a long time, but they have both played quite some European Cup matches in that period as well. I would say CSKA Moscow is the slight favourite here because of the home advantage, however I can't deny the Shakhtar record either, so I will go for a draw here.

Dinamo Kyiv vs. Metalist Kharkiv, 15x 2.25 @ Dinamo -1
- A clash between the highest placed teams in the Ukrainian Premier League. Dinamo has a big lead though and won 0-2 away in Kharkiv earlier this month. I don't think Kharkiv has not a chance at all in this meeting, but I believe Dinamo is going to win with a 2 goal difference to create a gap for the return.

Udinese vs. Zenit, 20x 2.70 @ Zenit + 1x23.00 @ 1-2 score
-Maybe it's just me, but I have seen Udinese play a couple of times and they can't get me enthousiastic about the team at all. The times they win it's more luck than skill and the times they lose it seems to be well deserved. Zenit on the other hand was strong, is strong and will still be strong after this game. Advocaat has never won on Italian soil? Today will be the first time. This will be a 1-2 Zenit win.

 

[pitpit]

I think the try at the Udinese score is a decent one. Immediately leaned on the over thinking it'd be 2-1, but couldn't decided who'd win, so I stayed away.

 

[jimmy0607]

You are right about the Brazilian league perfect example last weekend Sao paulo Lost to Mogi mirim the worst team who yesterday lost 4-0 to the 4th team

 

[Frankinho]

OUCH !!!

AZE-C: Neftchi Baku vs. Karabakh Agdam, 15x 3.00 @ Karabakh -15.00
QAT-1: Al Khor vs. Al Wakrah, 15x 2.10 @ Al Khor +16.50
CLIB: San Martin vs. Nacional Asuncion, 20x 1.85 @ San Martin +17.00
CLIB: Colo Colo vs. LDU Quito, 20x 1.80 @ Colo Colo +16.00
BRA-CA: Americano vs. Mesquita, 20x 1.80 @ Americano +16.00
ARG-2: Atletico Tucuman vs. Defensa y Justicia, 25x 1.90 @ Tucuman -25.00

Parlay: odds 2.18, stake 25 -25.00
BRA-P: Santos vs. Paulista, 1.50 @ Santos
BRA-P: Sao Paulo vs. Mirassol, 1.45 @ Sao Paulo

CSKA Moscow vs. Shakhtar Donetsk, 10x 3.55 @ draw -10.00
Dinamo Kyiv vs. Metalist Kharkiv, 15x 2.25 @ Dinamo -1 - push
Udinese vs. Zenit, 20x 2.70 @ Zenit + 1x23.00 @ 1-2 score -21.00

DAY 4-4 / Parlays 0-1 -30.50
Y2D 310-333 + Parlays 27-70
Bankroll: $ 3569.96 +1069.96

 

[Frankinho]

BUL-1: Pirin vs. Lokomotiv Sofia, 25x 2.85 @ Pirin
- There's no bigger contrast difference possible than between the home and away games of Pirin this season. So far Pirin played 7 games at home, winning 5 and drawing 2, a total of 17 points. In total they have 18 points this season, meaning they got only one point in their 9 away games so far. Lokomotiv Sofia is also a team that performs steady at home, but not at all on the road. So to me it's pretty obvious that Pirin should win this game.

FRA-2: Stade Brest vs. Tours, 10x 2.15 @ Stade Brest
- Tours is higher ranked in the league, however only two points in advantage of Brest. Funny and interesting detail is that Tours only won one game on the road this season against last ranked team Nimes. Brest is not unbeatable at home, but but still plays pretty well. They hardly play draws either, so I'm betting on the win for them in this game.

GER-1: Wolfsburg vs. Schalke, 20x 2.27 @ Wolfsburg
- Despite their home losses in the UEFA Cup and DFB Pokal Wolfsburg seems to be unbeatable at home this season. They are now even part of the group that battles for the Championship. Schalke's away record is not convincing at all and is not able to change my opinion on a Wolfsburg bet.

GER-2: Nurnberg vs. Rot-Weiss Ahlen, 25x 1.55 @ Nurnberg
- Nurnberg is a good team in a good form, being unbeaten at home for 8 games in a row now. Rot-Weiss Ahlen lost four consecutive away games before achieving a draw against 17th ranked Hansa Rostock.

IRL-1: Bohemians vs. Derry City, 15x 3.50 @ draw
- Bohemians is the defending champion and also won their first game of the season. Derry won as well, but are normally in the position of the underdog here. Apparently they like to be the underdog against Bohemians as the home team has not won one single time in their last eight matches at home against Derry (0-1, 0-1, 2-3, 1-2, 0-0, 0-0, 0-1, 2-2).

ITA-1: Ascoli vs. Piacenza, 10x 2.25 @ Ascoli
- With a win Ascoli will get to a 7 consecutive home winning streak. Piacenza has won their last 2 games on the road, but I do see Ascoli winning this clash.

NED-1: Groningen vs. Roda JC, 35x 1.68 @ Groningen
- Groningen lost their last three games, at home vs. PSV in the 94th minute, 3-0 overclassed away to AZ and away to Heerenveen in the 94th minute again. So the record looks bad, but in fact (despite the game against AZ in which the leaders played at their best) Groningen performed pretty well against high ranked teams. With Groningen it's either win or lose, draws are pretty uncommon, especially in their own stadium. The atmosphere is always great and they can win against any team. I'm very confident they're going to win against Roda JC, who only came to two draws in their last 9 away games. They were unable to score in the last four of them.

NED-2: Dordrecht vs. Excelsior, 20x 2.40 @ Dordrecht
- Dordrecht is only 16th, while Excelsior is 4th, but Dordrecht is on a 7-game non losing streak and a won their last 4 league home games, while Excelsior won only twice in their last 15 games, pretty weak for a 4th ranked team. In conclusion they're also on a 11-game non winning streak on the road.

NED-2: AGOVV Apeldoorn vs. Fortuna Sittard, 15x 2.05 @ AGOVV
- The Apeldoorn team is 3 points ahead of Fortuna in the rankings, won 3 and drew 2 of their last 5 home games. Facing a Fortuna team that lost 3 away games on a roll as well as only winning one in their last 7 games.

 

[Frankinho]

You guys prefer the picks with or without write ups?
I mean, does this qualify as helpful information for your picks or does nobody bother to read why I make my picks?
Just let me know if I should continue doing like this or not.

 

[roundrobin11]

You guys prefer the picks with or without write ups?
I mean, does this qualify as helpful information for your picks or does nobody bother to read why I make my picks?
Just let me know if I should continue doing like this or not.

I like the write-ups but if its a pain in the ass for you its not nessecary. I make my own pick then i love checking with you to see how closely ours matchup. Thanks for all your contributions. I, and im sure everyone else, appreciates it.

 

[chelseafan1]

You guys prefer the picks with or without write ups?
I mean, does this qualify as helpful information for your picks or does nobody bother to read why I make my picks?
Just let me know if I should continue doing like this or not.

its good to know once in while where your picks are coming form and why ..for me i don't have the time and read about every single game in Europe thats why i stick to EPL and i look at other leagues when i have time and your work is appreciated ..

 

[jimmy0607]

The write ups are great it convinces me if Im doubting about the pick , I'm gonna start doing it I'm just being lazy

 

[jimmy0607]

Frank on any thoughts on ANDERLECHT vs YELLOW RED KV MECHELEN

 

[Martinga]

Love write ups because it gives you some kind of explanation to why you are picking a team over another (or a draw if thats the case).

It would be good if you could also bold out a "Play of the Day"

That would certainly, help

bol