Dell Matchplay:
Outrights:
Brian Harman(80/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(25/1) e.w.
Abraham Ancer(66/1) e.w.
Cameron Smith(45/1) e.w.
Russell Henley(66/1) e.w.
Eric van Rooyen(150/1) e..w.
Jordan Spieth(25/1) e.w.
Ryan Palmer(75/1) e.w.
Matt Fitzpatrick(40/1) e.w.
Will Zalatoris(45/1) e.w.
Max Homa(90/1) e.w.
- - The last four plays feel somewhat indulgent, the last two very speculative as well.
Matchups:
Harman(+105) over Cantlay
Perez(+120) over Leishman
Reed(-160) over Watson
Homa(-110) over Horschel
Henley(+115) over Im
GL
Outrights:
Brian Harman(80/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(25/1) e.w.
Abraham Ancer(66/1) e.w.
Cameron Smith(45/1) e.w.
Russell Henley(66/1) e.w.
Eric van Rooyen(150/1) e..w.
Jordan Spieth(25/1) e.w.
Ryan Palmer(75/1) e.w.
Matt Fitzpatrick(40/1) e.w.
Will Zalatoris(45/1) e.w.
Max Homa(90/1) e.w.
- - The last four plays feel somewhat indulgent, the last two very speculative as well.
Matchups:
Harman(+105) over Cantlay
Perez(+120) over Leishman
Reed(-160) over Watson
Homa(-110) over Horschel
Henley(+115) over Im
GL
Kenya:
In-running:
David Drysdale(20/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
“Hold me back!”
This one needs to be discussed.
I was definitely a week early with my play on Drysdale, because no matter what happens from here, 20/1 is not 250/1.
Probably unlike most, I considered my first task in capping the back to back events in Kenya was striving to come up with my top plays on players that were hanging about after missing the cut. After completing the task, I concluded I couldn’t come up any better choices than my "almost play" on Janewattananond from the prior week (with odds climbing from 55/1 to 75/1), and my prior week play on Drysdale (with odds bumped from 225/1 to 250/1). In that regard, some of Drysdale’s best efforts have come early in the calendar year in South Africa, and a case could be made for similarities on this two event trip to Kenya.
In 20+ years of weekly golf capping, I can come up with a list of my Top 10 this, that and the other thing, and forever ensconsed way up on the list of my Top 10 favorite comments I’ve read by other golf cappers was many, many years ago when short odds were being offered on David Drysdale to win early in an event, and rhodesy chimed in with, “Hold me back!” It’s been my go to line so many times since then when talking to myself, always with a grin or a grimace appropriate to the moment. Hold me back!
At the end of the day, I passed on Drysdale after deciding I couldn’t see him getting to a -20 figure that it would likely take to win or go close. However, if I had hit a winner two weeks ago with Lee Westwood, I would have been all over the idea of continuing with a very robust roster of plays that favored inclusion over exclusion, and my roster would have included Drysdale(250/1). Simply put, one factor was directly responsible for my decision not to pull the trigger on Drysdale(250/1) e.w. this week, and it was the failure to have an 80/1 winner on Westwood as a fresh part of my bankroll. Period. God Damn x 2, maybe . . .
Anyway, Drysdale has always been one of the “players I want to be on when they win”, more so now than 10 years ago. From here, I fully expect the Drysdale narrative will not feature his walking around brain dead with the opportunity in front of him, and my best guess is that he will play well and battle hard but not hole the crucial putts over 36 holes required to sustain a winning effort, and he will slide down the leaderboard into a tie for 4th place or thereabouts. Hold me back!
GL
In-running:
David Drysdale(20/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
“Hold me back!”
This one needs to be discussed.
I was definitely a week early with my play on Drysdale, because no matter what happens from here, 20/1 is not 250/1.
Probably unlike most, I considered my first task in capping the back to back events in Kenya was striving to come up with my top plays on players that were hanging about after missing the cut. After completing the task, I concluded I couldn’t come up any better choices than my "almost play" on Janewattananond from the prior week (with odds climbing from 55/1 to 75/1), and my prior week play on Drysdale (with odds bumped from 225/1 to 250/1). In that regard, some of Drysdale’s best efforts have come early in the calendar year in South Africa, and a case could be made for similarities on this two event trip to Kenya.
In 20+ years of weekly golf capping, I can come up with a list of my Top 10 this, that and the other thing, and forever ensconsed way up on the list of my Top 10 favorite comments I’ve read by other golf cappers was many, many years ago when short odds were being offered on David Drysdale to win early in an event, and rhodesy chimed in with, “Hold me back!” It’s been my go to line so many times since then when talking to myself, always with a grin or a grimace appropriate to the moment. Hold me back!
At the end of the day, I passed on Drysdale after deciding I couldn’t see him getting to a -20 figure that it would likely take to win or go close. However, if I had hit a winner two weeks ago with Lee Westwood, I would have been all over the idea of continuing with a very robust roster of plays that favored inclusion over exclusion, and my roster would have included Drysdale(250/1). Simply put, one factor was directly responsible for my decision not to pull the trigger on Drysdale(250/1) e.w. this week, and it was the failure to have an 80/1 winner on Westwood as a fresh part of my bankroll. Period. God Damn x 2, maybe . . .
Anyway, Drysdale has always been one of the “players I want to be on when they win”, more so now than 10 years ago. From here, I fully expect the Drysdale narrative will not feature his walking around brain dead with the opportunity in front of him, and my best guess is that he will play well and battle hard but not hole the crucial putts over 36 holes required to sustain a winning effort, and he will slide down the leaderboard into a tie for 4th place or thereabouts. Hold me back!
GL
Corales Puntacana:
Outrights:
Lucas Herbert(50/1) e.w.
Tyler McCumber(45/1) e.w.
Scott Harrington(80/1) e.w.
Justin Suh(40/1) e.w.
Ted Potter, Jr.(66/1) e.w.
Will Gordon(40/1) e.w.
Grayson Murray(66/1) e.w.
- - Lucas(#72) is the highest ranked player in the field, with 50/1 odds. My capping is built foremost on looking for narratives and intangibles. But stats and value definitely matter, too, and Herbert would seem a play on that basis, which makes it a good narrative.
GL
Outrights:
Lucas Herbert(50/1) e.w.
Tyler McCumber(45/1) e.w.
Scott Harrington(80/1) e.w.
Justin Suh(40/1) e.w.
Ted Potter, Jr.(66/1) e.w.
Will Gordon(40/1) e.w.
Grayson Murray(66/1) e.w.
- - Lucas(#72) is the highest ranked player in the field, with 50/1 odds. My capping is built foremost on looking for narratives and intangibles. But stats and value definitely matter, too, and Herbert would seem a play on that basis, which makes it a good narrative.
GL
Masters:
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(11/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(35/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(125/1) e.w.
Corey Conners(80/1) e.w.
Matt Kuchar(90/1) e.w.
Si Woo Kim(110/1) e.w.
Brian Harman(90/1) e.w.
Jason Day(50/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(90/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Mike Weir(300/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Patrick Cantlay(28/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Matchups:
Spieth(-120) over McIlroy (Tournament)
Kuchar(-110) over Rose (Tournament)
Mickelson(+111) over Poulter (Tournament)
Conners(-150) over Lowry (Tournament)
Kuchar(+163) over Rose/Lowry (Thursday)
First Go at Draft Kings: Top Lineup:
Spieth = $9,400
Casey = $7,700
Mickelson = $6,600
Kuchar = $6,800
Thomas = $10,600
Fleetwood = $8,000
Total = $49,100
GL
Outrights:
Jordan Spieth(11/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(35/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(125/1) e.w.
Corey Conners(80/1) e.w.
Matt Kuchar(90/1) e.w.
Si Woo Kim(110/1) e.w.
Brian Harman(90/1) e.w.
Jason Day(50/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(90/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Mike Weir(300/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Patrick Cantlay(28/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Matchups:
Spieth(-120) over McIlroy (Tournament)
Kuchar(-110) over Rose (Tournament)
Mickelson(+111) over Poulter (Tournament)
Conners(-150) over Lowry (Tournament)
Kuchar(+163) over Rose/Lowry (Thursday)
First Go at Draft Kings: Top Lineup:
Spieth = $9,400
Casey = $7,700
Mickelson = $6,600
Kuchar = $6,800
Thomas = $10,600
Fleetwood = $8,000
Total = $49,100
GL
In-running:
Cameron Champ(35/1)(1/5/for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(33/1) e.w. Top Ten
- - Oh My! The ability to watch every shot by every player, quickly and at my convenience, is precisely the capping tool I dream of having at my disposal. A treasure trove of INFORMATION and ANGLES is what it offers. My schedule and my life intrude on my ability to use the tool, even this week, but there it is. God Bless. And then a plethora of transcripts from player interviews is a cherry on top. There is information throughout that will benefit beyond this week.
- - Even before damaging his putter, I had seen no one playing better than one of my guys, Si Woo Kim. I was certain about what I was seeing.
- - . . . But I take it back. Cameron Champ has been more impressive. His pairing today with Kim is what led to my research, and if I had to choose between them right now, it would be Champ. I don’t know where it came from, but his prodigious talent has given a deadly display. Looking for a narrative, there is no “nappy factor” in play, but maybe call it a Lee Elder factor (with a sheen of inspiration from Tiger Woods to boot?). You never really know what they are, but intangibles fuel the magic. And I know I was impressed by the way he handled being in contention at Harding Park in the first major championship of 2020.
- - IMO, Phil has given a completely honest assessment of his narrative to this point, something I have thought to be fairly obvious since The Players, as he has been held back by courses that don’t suit.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=164252
Saturday:
Mickelson(+100) over Molinari
Morikawa(+125) over DeChambeau
Munoz(+130) over Scott
Scheffler(+140) over Rahm
Simpson(+100) Ov71'
Hatton(-120) Ov71'
Fitzpatrick(+100) Ov71'
GL
Cameron Champ(35/1)(1/5/for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(33/1) e.w. Top Ten
- - Oh My! The ability to watch every shot by every player, quickly and at my convenience, is precisely the capping tool I dream of having at my disposal. A treasure trove of INFORMATION and ANGLES is what it offers. My schedule and my life intrude on my ability to use the tool, even this week, but there it is. God Bless. And then a plethora of transcripts from player interviews is a cherry on top. There is information throughout that will benefit beyond this week.
- - Even before damaging his putter, I had seen no one playing better than one of my guys, Si Woo Kim. I was certain about what I was seeing.
- - . . . But I take it back. Cameron Champ has been more impressive. His pairing today with Kim is what led to my research, and if I had to choose between them right now, it would be Champ. I don’t know where it came from, but his prodigious talent has given a deadly display. Looking for a narrative, there is no “nappy factor” in play, but maybe call it a Lee Elder factor (with a sheen of inspiration from Tiger Woods to boot?). You never really know what they are, but intangibles fuel the magic. And I know I was impressed by the way he handled being in contention at Harding Park in the first major championship of 2020.
- - IMO, Phil has given a completely honest assessment of his narrative to this point, something I have thought to be fairly obvious since The Players, as he has been held back by courses that don’t suit.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_interview.php?id=164252
Saturday:
Mickelson(+100) over Molinari
Morikawa(+125) over DeChambeau
Munoz(+130) over Scott
Scheffler(+140) over Rahm
Simpson(+100) Ov71'
Hatton(-120) Ov71'
Fitzpatrick(+100) Ov71'
GL
Sunday:
Harman(-135) over MacIntyre
Spieth(-120) over Finau
Smith(+100) over Hovland
Thomas(-115) over Rahm
Poulter(+133) over Hatton
- - As for Mickelson, I remember seeing him hole a 20 foot birdie put on #18 on Thursday, and a 15 foot birdie putt on #1 yesterday, but other than that it has been far too many misses from 4 to 8 feet to balance out the few putts he has holed from close range. Even still, it is not his putting that has me discouraged about his prospects for moving up the leaderboard and securing for me a sweet 33/1 Top 10 wager today, but the fact that after a stretch of weeks of having really found his swing and swinging within himself, he is already back to trying to pound the daylights out of his tee shots like he fearlessly does even when he has a both way miss going with his swing. I wish his swings off the tee yesterday and today would be just like the form he was showing during the past month that got him to this place. Sigh.
GL
Harman(-135) over MacIntyre
Spieth(-120) over Finau
Smith(+100) over Hovland
Thomas(-115) over Rahm
Poulter(+133) over Hatton
- - As for Mickelson, I remember seeing him hole a 20 foot birdie put on #18 on Thursday, and a 15 foot birdie putt on #1 yesterday, but other than that it has been far too many misses from 4 to 8 feet to balance out the few putts he has holed from close range. Even still, it is not his putting that has me discouraged about his prospects for moving up the leaderboard and securing for me a sweet 33/1 Top 10 wager today, but the fact that after a stretch of weeks of having really found his swing and swinging within himself, he is already back to trying to pound the daylights out of his tee shots like he fearlessly does even when he has a both way miss going with his swing. I wish his swings off the tee yesterday and today would be just like the form he was showing during the past month that got him to this place. Sigh.
GL
Heritage:
Outrights:
Si Woo Kim(40/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(75/1) e.w.
Michael Thompson(125/1) e.w.
C.T. Pan(140/1) e.w.
Brian Harman(35/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(50/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(90/1) e.w.
Matthew NeSmith(110/1) e.w.
Robert MacIntyre(70/1) e.w.
Camilo Villegas(300/1) e.w.
GL
Outrights:
Si Woo Kim(40/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(75/1) e.w.
Michael Thompson(125/1) e.w.
C.T. Pan(140/1) e.w.
Brian Harman(35/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(50/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(90/1) e.w.
Matthew NeSmith(110/1) e.w.
Robert MacIntyre(70/1) e.w.
Camilo Villegas(300/1) e.w.
GL
