Fore! 2021

[lostinamerica]

Originally Posted by lostinamerica
Senior Open:

Stephen Dodd(200/1) e.w.

Originally Posted by lostinamerica
3M:

Cameron Champ(125/1) e.w.



ODDS and ENDS:

(1) - - It has felt like all season I have had a good feel with my capping, and that I have put in a proper effort week after week. I know I wasn’t struggling to come up with solid reasons for making the plays I was making, and didn’t feel like I was forcing any plays just to have action. But before last week, a season that had definitely started well had been lacking in positive results.

(2) - - I always keep a season tally, and I knew I would eventually go back and calculate my losses for the year. But I now believe I am slightly up for the season, which will certainly motivate completion of the tally process, besides putting a bounce in my step for the serious time and effort it takes for the weekly grind of always having more capping to be done.

(3) - - I have frequently noted that I have my best wagering results in the four Majors and the Players. In 2019 and 2020 I was on a run with Lowry in the Open, Morikawa in the PGA, Wolff finishing second in the U.S. Open, and DJ in the Masters. But in 2021, except for a tough loss with a very strong play on Lee Westwood(80/1) in The Players, the insights and results in the Majors were disappointing and poor.
- - Also, I have frequently noted that for whatever reason(s), I have a poor track record the week before the Majors, but some excellent results the week after the Majors, and that bit of history just got reinforced.

(4) - - I have also frequently noted that my strongest plays come from ANGLES and INFORMATION I pick up (i) while viewing the weekly golf telecasts, and (ii) tracking shot after shot on the leaderboard, and that bit of history also got reinforced with a 125/1 play on Cameron Champ being my top play for last week. While intently watching the action as Lucas Glover closed out the Deere Classic on a Sunday with the most righteous display of golf of his career (and after I sadly decided not to make an in-running play on Glover on Saturday night, even though I was confident that opportunities were there for a bunched field to make things very difficult before the leader Munoz would ever close out the championship), it was everything I saw about Champ’s play on that Sunday which had me fairly chomping at the bit to wager on him in his next outing, when he would be chomping at the bit after sitting out a Major, and after he would have been stewing in his juices for the way he pissed away opportunities at Deere.
- - Insights gleaned from viewing the telecasts had definitely been the source of some of my best plays of the season, specifically Westwood(80/1) at the Players, Janewattananond(70/1) as a playoff loser, and Detry(100/1) as a playoff loser.

(5) - - Lastly, someone wondered how I “unearthed” a play on Stephen Dodd at 200/1, and I think the following is a fairly accurate recounting of the process:
(i) - - I was annotating my printout of players and odds for some longshots that appealed, or justified further research, and Stephen Dodd stood out as being likely value vis-a-vis the other names in his neighborhood.
(ii) - - With the big tournament in Wales going on at the same time, that is a real factor that weighs in my siding with a Welshman.
(iii) - - My only other play at that point was on Paul Broadhurst, who literally made his career by winning the Senior Open and gaining privileges on the U.S. Champions Tour. The way the tumblers in my mind were clicking, it is fair to say at that point I would have been bereft if Dodd had come through and I had not had a wager on him.
(iv) - - Also weighing on my capping was the fact that on the Champions Tour, if most of the competitors had to choose between a dodgy 4 foot putt or a dodgy chip shot, they would choose the putt when the pressure is ratcheted up. As is always the case when capping a 72 hole grind in a Champions Major, I knew the wedge game and those dodgy putting strokes would get tested (with Sunningdale being a beauty like Wentworth in that regard), and some proficiency in that regard is always valued by me. I speculated that I thought Dodd had always had a decent short game, but for sure I didn’t have enough knowledge about the state of his short game to weigh it against him.

(6) - - That’s enough. Sunday was a crazy good day. It will likely never be equaled by me in raw numbers (although my stakes these days are generally only about half of what they were back in the day when I hit Stephen Ames(150/1) at the Players and Jean van de Velde(100/1) at Madeira on the same weekend in 2006, or Lucas Glover(200/1) in the 2009 U.S. Open (and Ross Fisher e.w. at 125/1)).
- - Time to focus on my final choices for the Olympics. The one thing I know for sure is that I would be bereft if Jazz Janewattananond(125/1) came through with a big effort and I didn’t have a wager on him.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Olympics:

Cameron Smith(20/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(25/1) e.w.
Jazz Janewattananond(125/1) e.w.
Si Woo Kim(45/1) e.w.
Viktor Hovland(11/1) e.w.
Guido Migliozi(55/1) e.w.
- - With only about 3 of the Top 10 and 15 of the Top 40 players in the WGR in the field, any type of leaderboard at an Asian site after shallow on-site prep would really not surprise me. Also, the absence of fans in a metropolitan area of 37 million might give a spooky vibe to the proceedings, and could well favor some outsiders possessed of a lifelong passion for Olympic champions to generate their own energy . . . To the extent it might be helpful, my speculation on a comparable course would be Quail Hollow . . . I like the intangibles of Cameron Smith in this specific spot about as well as anyone . . . I have been wagering on Shane Lowry having a big moment this year at about every big opportunity, and this will be no exception . . . I would be bereft if Jazz Janewattananond came through with a big effort and I didn’t have a wager on him . . . Even without massive crowds, I simply don’t like the circumstances of Sunjae Im being paired with McIlroy and Morikawa the first two days, so that even if he emerges in a strong position, he faces two even more stressful days to get to the podium. I much prefer the prospects of Si Woo Kim emerging in a position of strength for the weekend after two days with a much more low key pairing . . . Norwegians are passionate about the Olympics, or so I’ve heard . . . Guido Migliozi is just for the heck of it.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

ISPS Handa:

Ashley Chesters(66/1) e.w.
John Catlin(25/1) e.w.
Alejandro Canizares(100/1) e.w.
Shubankar Sharma(90/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(175/1) e.w.
Hugo Leon(75/1) e.w.
Connor Syme(30/1) e.w.
Oliver Farr(75/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

golf.com 7/30/21

What the Olympic golf scene looks (and sounds) like when players have time to kill

Link: https://golf.com/news/weather-delays-golf-olympics/


. . . Justin Thomas motored into the clubhouse for a bathroom break. He was the pace car, really, in the race to the air conditioning.

The heat index had swelled into the mid-90s, so those 32 tables and 132 chairs were in high demand. There might only be 60 players in the field, but that also means 60 caddies and dozens of team managers and physios. There were also female competitors (prepping for the women’s event next week) and their caddies hanging out. A dozen women had been practicing on the driving range when the horn blew, but now they were part of golf’s little game of musical chairs, too.

Not five minutes had passed before every seat in the clubhouse was occupied. Well, there was one available in the middle of the room next to . . . For those worried about Covid protocols, just know that plexiglass separated every seat at every table, and a clubhouse attendant walked around passing out fresh masks . . .

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Stat of the Day:

Tiger Woods has won 22.5% of his PGA Tour starts (82 of 365).

Annika Sorenstam has won 23.4% of her LPGA Tour starts (72 of 307 + 1).

I did not think that was even a possibility.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Hero Open:

Callum Shinkwin(60/1) e.w.
Alejandro Canizares(75/1) e.w.
Matthew Southgate(35/1) e.w.
Joachim B. Hansen(35/1) e.w.
Marcel Siem(45/1) e.w.
Nacho Elvira(60/1) e.w.
Chris Wood(100/1) e.w.
Hugo Leon(55/1) e.w.
Romain Wattel(400/1) e.w.
Oliver Farr(55/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

WGC FedEx:

Sergio Garcia(70/1) e.w.
Dustin Johnson(16/1) e.w.
Louis Oosthuizen(22/1) e.w.
Scottie Scheffler(28/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(160/1) e.w.
Daniel Berger(22/1) e.w.
Harris English(40/1) e.w.
Jordan Spieth(14/1) e.w.
Cameron Champ(80/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(80/1) e.w.
- - I’m probably too much with the market in strongly favoring those not coming back from Tokoyo . . . I think this is my first play on Sergio this year, and I believe he is trending to carry my cash throughout the FedEx finish . . . Before starting on any capping, my general impressions from wherever and whenever were suggesting Scheffler and DJ to me . . . . I can’t pick up a winning marker on Champ . . . The price on Glover looks huge to me, and as one play too many I added Poulter over Kisner, Horschel or Kokrak.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Barracuda:

Ryan Moore(28/1) e.w.
Thomas Pieters(33/1) e.w.
Camilo Villegas(140/1) e.w.
Michael Gellerman(140/1) e.w.
Maverick McNealy(18/1) e.w.
Russell Knox(80/1) e.w.
Doc Redman(55/1) e.w.
Chesson Hadley(80/1) e.w.
- - I had some of my frequent trouble with DraftKings and their frustrating geofencing software being able to locate my computer to allow me to make final edits to my entries. After struggling through the options of rebooting, and using different PCs in the office, I managed to get the DraftKings entries I wanted for the FedEx finalized by the off, but the delays result in my being late to post my plays for the Barracuda.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Cazoo:

Chase Hanna(45/1) e.w.
Garrick Porteous(60/1) e.w.
Alejandro Canizares(100/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Wyndham:

Talor Gooch(55/1) e.w.
Brendon Todd(70/1) e.w.
C.T. Pan(80/1) e.w.
Scott Stallings(150/1) e.w.
Hideki Matsuyama(12/1) e.w.
Sebastian Munoz(50/1) e.w.
Rickie Fowler(50/1) e.w.
Scott Stallings(150/1) e.w.
Camilo Villegas(150/1) e.w.
Hank Lebioda(66/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

^ ^ ^ Instead of Scott Stallings listed twice, should be Luke Donald(250/1) e.w. ^ ^ ^

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Shaw:

Stephen Ames(22/1) e.w.
Lee Janzen(90/1) e.w.
Chris DiMarco(300/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Rory McIlroy(20/1) e.w.
Scottie Scheffler(33/1) e.w.
Matt Fitzpatrick(66/1) e.w.
Sergio Garcia(90/1) e.w.
Charl Schwartzel(200/1) e.w.
Aaron Wise(300/1) e.w.

Zander Lombard(90/1) e.w.
Garrick Porteous(50/1) e.w.
Johannes Veerman(22/1) e.w.

Brooke Henderson(35/1) e.w.
Angela Stanford(200/1) e.w.

Steve Flesch(66/1) e.w.
Woody Austin(50/1) e.w.
Robert Karlsson(28/1) e.w.

- - Tossing my money on some plays before heading on vacation, hoping to land a rooting interest, or two.

G

 

[lostinamerica]

European Masters:

Outrights:

Richard Bland(33/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(275/1) e.w.
Miguel Angel Jimenez(150/1) e.w.
Shubhankar Sharma(75/1) e.w.
Jazz Janewattananond(90/1) e.w.
Guido Migliozzi(33/1) e.w.
Jamie Donaldson(45/1) e.w.
Lucas Bjerregaard(90/1) e.w.
Johannes Veerman(50/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BMW:

Outrights:

Brooks Koepka(25/1) e.w.
Bryson DeChambeau(20/1) e.w.
Hudson Swafford(250/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(35/1) e.w.
Cameron Champ(90/1) e.w.
Jhonattan Vegas(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Ally:

Outrights:

Colin Montgomerie(80/1) e.w.
Chris DiMarco(300/1) e.w.
Steve Flesch(55/1) e.w.
Woody Austin(28/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Italian Open:

Guido Migliozzi(25/1) e.w.
Antoine Rozner(33/1) e.w.
Francesco Molinari(35/1) e.w.
John Catlin(55/1) e.w.
Min Woo Lee(55/1) e.w.
Nicolas Colsaerts(80/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Tour Championship:

72 Holes Without Strokes (1/4 for 1-2-3-4):

Rory McIlroy(10/1) e.w.
Sam Burns(30/1) e.w.
Erik Van Rooyen(55/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

BMW PGA:

Lee Westwood(40/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(45/1) e.w.
Robert McIntyre(50/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(175/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(110/1) e.w.
Sean Crocker(80/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(200/1) e.w.
- - This must be my favorite big tournament in the world of golf to watch for which I don't ever recall any great wagering success. I do sadly remember one that got away was my failure to pull the trigger on an in-running play on Chris Wood in 2016.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Ascension:

Colin Montgomerie(110/1) e.w.
Steve Flesch(40/1) e.w.
Chris DiMarco(500/1) e.w.

GL