BMW International:
Outrights:
Ross Fisher(35/1) e.w.
Andrew Johnston(50/1) e.w.
Pablo Larrazabal(50/1) e.w.
Romain Wattel(70/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(80/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(150/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(400/1) e.w.
- - My record in the week after a major is way better than the week before a major, significantly so to the extent it's actually been a long-term strength.
GL
Outrights:
Ross Fisher(35/1) e.w.
Andrew Johnston(50/1) e.w.
Pablo Larrazabal(50/1) e.w.
Romain Wattel(70/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(80/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(150/1) e.w.
Edoardo Molinari(400/1) e.w.
- - My record in the week after a major is way better than the week before a major, significantly so to the extent it's actually been a long-term strength.
GL
- - There must be more 6's and 8's at Golf de National by players going well than any other venue on any Tour over let’s say the last 20 years. While there is a lot of quality near the top of that 36 hole leaderboard this year, this course separates the chasing pack every year, and a well-placed 69 or 68 by anyone in the top half can give them a real shot at almost anything, though I know Sunday will qualify as excruciating.
McIlroy has the all around game that really does suit this examination. He might be due some magic on the season, but I am still inclined to doubt his clean play from here upon reading his Thursday comment, “"I've got about four or five swing thoughts out there at the minute, so that's why I'm sort of happy with 71 with how much I'm focusing on my golf swing and my technique," making Stanley’s tip on Ilonen that little bit more attractive . . . At the start I definitely had a look at Jaidee, but didn’t expect he was ready to close, while I passed on Cabrera Bello because I didn’t like the skinny odds on him getting comfortably in the mix, but now that he is engaged, IMO he is in the form of his life . . . Sadier was my French longshot to start the week and I’ve been tracking him for 36 holes to call this a play I’d kick myself over if I went and pulled the trigger on someone different.
GL
McIlroy has the all around game that really does suit this examination. He might be due some magic on the season, but I am still inclined to doubt his clean play from here upon reading his Thursday comment, “"I've got about four or five swing thoughts out there at the minute, so that's why I'm sort of happy with 71 with how much I'm focusing on my golf swing and my technique," making Stanley’s tip on Ilonen that little bit more attractive . . . At the start I definitely had a look at Jaidee, but didn’t expect he was ready to close, while I passed on Cabrera Bello because I didn’t like the skinny odds on him getting comfortably in the mix, but now that he is engaged, IMO he is in the form of his life . . . Sadier was my French longshot to start the week and I’ve been tracking him for 36 holes to call this a play I’d kick myself over if I went and pulled the trigger on someone different.
GL
145th Open Championship:
Outrights:
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.
Lee Westwood(45/1) e.w.
Branden Grace(30/1) e.w.
Rafael Cabrera Bello(100/1) e.w.
Padraig Harrington(125/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(200/1) e.w.
Alex Noren(100/1) e.w.
Thongchai Jaidee(175/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(250/1) e.w.
Chris Wood(80/1) e.w.
Graeme McDowell(80/1) e.w.
Hideto Tanihara(66/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top Rest of World
Soren Kjeldsen(66/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top European
Jon Rahm(150/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Thongchai Jaidee(125/1) e.w. First Round Leader
GL
Outrights:
Phil Mickelson(50/1) e.w.
Lee Westwood(45/1) e.w.
Branden Grace(30/1) e.w.
Rafael Cabrera Bello(100/1) e.w.
Padraig Harrington(125/1) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(200/1) e.w.
Alex Noren(100/1) e.w.
Thongchai Jaidee(175/1) e.w.
Ross Fisher(250/1) e.w.
Chris Wood(80/1) e.w.
Graeme McDowell(80/1) e.w.
Hideto Tanihara(66/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top Rest of World
Soren Kjeldsen(66/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top European
Jon Rahm(150/1) e.w. First Round Leader
Thongchai Jaidee(125/1) e.w. First Round Leader
GL
ODDS and ENDS:
(1) My play on Mickelson from January is actually enhanced IMO by his missed cuts in the year’s first two majors, but I don’t think his chances benefit from the exceptionally rugged weather forecasts for the coming days, or his late start during the exceptionally benign conditions on Thursday.
(2) The weather forecast which has prevailed all week has had me favoring certain players with suitable credentials . . . What my roster is lacking is Americans, and with Friday’s forecast I’m not too sure my in-running addition(s) will address that deficiency.
(3) Troon in 2004 was a beauty for me that started with Thomas Levet(80/1) tied for first round leader, Carl Pettersson(200/1) catching a small e.w. piece for first round leader, and Westwood(80/1) e.w. finishing 4th, plus an in-running play on Westwood(22/1) e.w. as Top European after playing with Tiger the first two days, and almost hitting a 12/1 e.w. in-running parlay on Els as Top ROW and Mickelson as Top American . . . My cleaning up with Westwood at Troon in 2004, along with having 150/1 e.w. on Westwood in-running at The Masters this year, must make me one of the few persons on the planet with very solid profits of 15 or so units on my 25 or so plays on Westwood in major championships . . . I didn’t think the most treacherous greens in golf would suit Westwood at Oakmont, and Sunday there proved a debacle. But I liked what I saw from Lee at Augusta, I liked what he brought to Troon in 2004, and he gets a further lean for his bad weather, links and driving credentials.
(4) Before the BMW International I posted, “My record in the week after a major is way better than the week before a major.” Alex Noren(50/1) helped flip that trend last week, and I won’t pick up that winning marker.
(5) On Friday night of this year’s BMW PGA I started a post of ODDS and ENDS that I never finished (which I still have saved) and it would have stated, “Liking Chris Wood for Troon, but might “pop early.” WITHOUT A DOUBT my biggest regret in wagering at the end of this season will be “What a stupid I am” for not having made the connection to place an in-running wager on Wood after 36 holes at Wentworth (the odds must have been 100/1 or 80/1) . . . I’m now expecting a WD for this week, and as of yesterday I heard him state his preparation has been "not what I wanted" (more or less non-existent, actually), but I'm letting him carry my cash nevertheless, to avoid further serious regrets . . . Ross Fisher offers several interesting angles to my way of thinking, but realistically I'd be tickled if he came through as a value loser.
(6) The worse the weather gets, the more I like my plays on Harrington, McDowell and Kjeldsen, and the less I like my plays on Cabrera Bello and Noren.
GL
(1) My play on Mickelson from January is actually enhanced IMO by his missed cuts in the year’s first two majors, but I don’t think his chances benefit from the exceptionally rugged weather forecasts for the coming days, or his late start during the exceptionally benign conditions on Thursday.
(2) The weather forecast which has prevailed all week has had me favoring certain players with suitable credentials . . . What my roster is lacking is Americans, and with Friday’s forecast I’m not too sure my in-running addition(s) will address that deficiency.
(3) Troon in 2004 was a beauty for me that started with Thomas Levet(80/1) tied for first round leader, Carl Pettersson(200/1) catching a small e.w. piece for first round leader, and Westwood(80/1) e.w. finishing 4th, plus an in-running play on Westwood(22/1) e.w. as Top European after playing with Tiger the first two days, and almost hitting a 12/1 e.w. in-running parlay on Els as Top ROW and Mickelson as Top American . . . My cleaning up with Westwood at Troon in 2004, along with having 150/1 e.w. on Westwood in-running at The Masters this year, must make me one of the few persons on the planet with very solid profits of 15 or so units on my 25 or so plays on Westwood in major championships . . . I didn’t think the most treacherous greens in golf would suit Westwood at Oakmont, and Sunday there proved a debacle. But I liked what I saw from Lee at Augusta, I liked what he brought to Troon in 2004, and he gets a further lean for his bad weather, links and driving credentials.
(4) Before the BMW International I posted, “My record in the week after a major is way better than the week before a major.” Alex Noren(50/1) helped flip that trend last week, and I won’t pick up that winning marker.
(5) On Friday night of this year’s BMW PGA I started a post of ODDS and ENDS that I never finished (which I still have saved) and it would have stated, “Liking Chris Wood for Troon, but might “pop early.” WITHOUT A DOUBT my biggest regret in wagering at the end of this season will be “What a stupid I am” for not having made the connection to place an in-running wager on Wood after 36 holes at Wentworth (the odds must have been 100/1 or 80/1) . . . I’m now expecting a WD for this week, and as of yesterday I heard him state his preparation has been "not what I wanted" (more or less non-existent, actually), but I'm letting him carry my cash nevertheless, to avoid further serious regrets . . . Ross Fisher offers several interesting angles to my way of thinking, but realistically I'd be tickled if he came through as a value loser.
(6) The worse the weather gets, the more I like my plays on Harrington, McDowell and Kjeldsen, and the less I like my plays on Cabrera Bello and Noren.
GL
Kudos to The Golf Channel.
It was late yesterday, and I believe it was Scott Hernandez hitting his tee shot on the Par 3 14th, and Mike Tirico said to Johnny Miller, "You know what number that player is?". Johnny and I didn't know what he was talking about, and Tirico explained that was the 155th player they had shown during their two days of coverage. Chris Wood withdrew, but otherwise they had shown all 155 players over the two days of coverage. I was absolutely amazed.
Of course there are some things about The Golf Channel which can annoy, but that's not the purpose of this post.
On the whole, every other sport can only wish they had something equivalent to The Golf Channel.
GL
It was late yesterday, and I believe it was Scott Hernandez hitting his tee shot on the Par 3 14th, and Mike Tirico said to Johnny Miller, "You know what number that player is?". Johnny and I didn't know what he was talking about, and Tirico explained that was the 155th player they had shown during their two days of coverage. Chris Wood withdrew, but otherwise they had shown all 155 players over the two days of coverage. I was absolutely amazed.
Of course there are some things about The Golf Channel which can annoy, but that's not the purpose of this post.
On the whole, every other sport can only wish they had something equivalent to The Golf Channel.
GL
RBC Canadian Open:
Outrights:
Tony Finau(40/1) e.w.
Bud Cauley(125/1) e.w.
Adam Hadwin(80/1) e.w.
Kevin Kisner(66/1) e.w.
Ricky Barnes(150/1) e.w.
Steve Marino(200/1) e.w
Graham DeLaet(55/1) e.w.
Sean O’Hair(150/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(25/1) e.w.
Stuart Appleby(250/1) e.w.
- - I recently posted that my record in the week after a major is way better than the week before a major; upon review for this season, Luke Donald almost came through after The Masters, and after the U.S. Open I did decent with my plays at the BMW and pathetic at the Quicken Loans; I then surprised myself by landing Alex Noren at 50/1 e.w. in the Scottish Open before the 145th Open . . . With definite exceptions for the majors and The Players, when my card in regular P.G.A. and European Tour events has 8 or more plays vs. 7 or less plays, I have to acknowledge far too many instances of the whole card feeling like a crash and burn effort, with hardly any of the plays even marginally threatening during the proceedings . . . And it seems like last year and this year one of the worst selections on my card for any given week (with the sole exception of Mickelson this season) ends up being anyone I try who is among the shortish favorites . . . Snedeker is fourth favorite this week, and I just read Butch Harmon comment that Brandt doesn’t like the way he’s swinging the club right now, but I thought I was seeing encouraging signs before reading that comment, and I had been lining up for a play on Sneds at the P.G.A., but I decided instead that this week was a better spot . . . Finau seems to be the flavor of the moment . . . I always give a study of the Canadian contingent for this event and my plays in that regard have felt acceptable, and this year I’m really liking the chances of both such selections . . . Barnes has serious swing flaws and not much to recommend about his short game to hold him back whenever he gets in the Sunday mix, but I think this Nicklaus venue suits him. . . . I’ve sort of been tracking Luke Guthrie and Bud Cauley on my radar, and was satisfied with what I saw last week while having a play on Guthrie, and this week Cauley appeals . . . Marino is another that is recently on my radar, while O’Hair and Kisner and Appleby have been on and off my radar all season, and this second shot course and this spot on the calendar held some appeal for including them all as selections once I pushed myself past 7 plays.
Senior Open:
Outrights:
Jesper Parnevik(40/1) e.w.
Paul Broadhurst(50/1) e.w.
Tom Watson(40/1) e.w.
GL
Outrights:
Tony Finau(40/1) e.w.
Bud Cauley(125/1) e.w.
Adam Hadwin(80/1) e.w.
Kevin Kisner(66/1) e.w.
Ricky Barnes(150/1) e.w.
Steve Marino(200/1) e.w
Graham DeLaet(55/1) e.w.
Sean O’Hair(150/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(25/1) e.w.
Stuart Appleby(250/1) e.w.
- - I recently posted that my record in the week after a major is way better than the week before a major; upon review for this season, Luke Donald almost came through after The Masters, and after the U.S. Open I did decent with my plays at the BMW and pathetic at the Quicken Loans; I then surprised myself by landing Alex Noren at 50/1 e.w. in the Scottish Open before the 145th Open . . . With definite exceptions for the majors and The Players, when my card in regular P.G.A. and European Tour events has 8 or more plays vs. 7 or less plays, I have to acknowledge far too many instances of the whole card feeling like a crash and burn effort, with hardly any of the plays even marginally threatening during the proceedings . . . And it seems like last year and this year one of the worst selections on my card for any given week (with the sole exception of Mickelson this season) ends up being anyone I try who is among the shortish favorites . . . Snedeker is fourth favorite this week, and I just read Butch Harmon comment that Brandt doesn’t like the way he’s swinging the club right now, but I thought I was seeing encouraging signs before reading that comment, and I had been lining up for a play on Sneds at the P.G.A., but I decided instead that this week was a better spot . . . Finau seems to be the flavor of the moment . . . I always give a study of the Canadian contingent for this event and my plays in that regard have felt acceptable, and this year I’m really liking the chances of both such selections . . . Barnes has serious swing flaws and not much to recommend about his short game to hold him back whenever he gets in the Sunday mix, but I think this Nicklaus venue suits him. . . . I’ve sort of been tracking Luke Guthrie and Bud Cauley on my radar, and was satisfied with what I saw last week while having a play on Guthrie, and this week Cauley appeals . . . Marino is another that is recently on my radar, while O’Hair and Kisner and Appleby have been on and off my radar all season, and this second shot course and this spot on the calendar held some appeal for including them all as selections once I pushed myself past 7 plays.
Senior Open:
Outrights:
Jesper Parnevik(40/1) e.w.
Paul Broadhurst(50/1) e.w.
Tom Watson(40/1) e.w.
GL
I was looking for some wagering opportunities over the weekend, but I felt my clearest thinking was directed toward some early looks at the P.G.A. Championship. I’ll eventually cut and paste this post to that thread.
For openers, I said in my Canadian Open post, “ . . . I had been lining up for a play on Sneds at the P.G.A., but I decided instead that this week was a better spot.” What I more precisely should have said was, “ . . . I decided instead that this week was as good a spot because of Snedeker’s propensity for reappearing at the same spots.”
Reed has all the trappings of being a danger, although yet to be really tested to the fullest extent.
Baltusrol is a big property that can definitely suit Holmes, and J.B. is in the midst of a season of note.
Phil Mickelson
- -
Snedeker has a pretty decent record when leading, but I don't expect a brilliant closing today under ideal conditions. Regardless, he'll be a play next week.
After that it’s ODDS and ENDS . . .
Not Grace, surprisingly; no Rose, either, but Kaymer looks like a go.
Grillo over Molinari or Woodland, but I’ll likely pass, Lingmerth may be a tougher decision.
Haas, not Stricker, all just opinions. No Sergio. Definitely no Zach.
Koepka too short. Maybe Henley at 200/1, or maybe Top American.
Justin Thomas FRL
Keegan Bradley FRL
DJ, of course, while Rory definitely seems closest to his best of The Big 3 (soon to be 4), which IMO is why his frustration was so evident at Troon, but a P.G.A. at Baltusrol is a much better fit.
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w.
Patrick Reed(50/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Martin Kaymer(66/1) e.w.
GL
For openers, I said in my Canadian Open post, “ . . . I had been lining up for a play on Sneds at the P.G.A., but I decided instead that this week was a better spot.” What I more precisely should have said was, “ . . . I decided instead that this week was as good a spot because of Snedeker’s propensity for reappearing at the same spots.”
Reed has all the trappings of being a danger, although yet to be really tested to the fullest extent.
Baltusrol is a big property that can definitely suit Holmes, and J.B. is in the midst of a season of note.
Phil Mickelson
- -
- - I don’t see anybody being more focused than Phil on the quick transition from the Scottish links to a classic Tillinghast parkland, and Lefty and the New York environs have carried on a mutual love affair.
Snedeker has a pretty decent record when leading, but I don't expect a brilliant closing today under ideal conditions. Regardless, he'll be a play next week.
After that it’s ODDS and ENDS . . .
Not Grace, surprisingly; no Rose, either, but Kaymer looks like a go.
Grillo over Molinari or Woodland, but I’ll likely pass, Lingmerth may be a tougher decision.
Haas, not Stricker, all just opinions. No Sergio. Definitely no Zach.
Koepka too short. Maybe Henley at 200/1, or maybe Top American.
Justin Thomas FRL
Keegan Bradley FRL
DJ, of course, while Rory definitely seems closest to his best of The Big 3 (soon to be 4), which IMO is why his frustration was so evident at Troon, but a P.G.A. at Baltusrol is a much better fit.
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w.
Patrick Reed(50/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Martin Kaymer(66/1) e.w.
GL
Adding . . .
Starters . . .
Factoid of the Week:
All sorts of discussion this week on how driving will be crucial, or at least the test will not take the driver out of anyone's hands. But I also heard a couple respected observations that the subtle rolls on the Tillinghast greens are very difficult to read correctly, which gives me pause with some of the better drivers.
Useless stats of the Week:
Majors won by Tiger Woods before Age 33: 14
Majors won by Tiger Woods after Age 33: 0
Majors won by Phil Mickelson before Age 33: 0
Majors won by Phil Mickelson after Age 33: 5
Observations of the Week: (1) Dr. Gio Valiante, commenting on Henrik Stenson’s "insanely brilliant" play at Troon, after which he dedicated the win in honor of his friend Mike Gerbich who sadly lost his battle with cancer the day before the tournament: Grief causes a change in perspective and will suppress anxiety in really good ways. And it came on the biggest stage where there is “no net” and the greatest athletes are pushed to their greatest performances. (2) David Duval: Adding 20 club pros to the P.G.A. field reduces the depth of the field but not the strength of the field (i.e. look to Augusta if you want to find a field lacking both depth and strength).
Parting shot of the Week: I've been wondering whether Casey Martin would be offered a cart to compete in the Olympics.
To my way of thinking thoughts of the Week: I absolutely, immediately and without any doubt loved Mickelson’s pairing with Westwood and Els for the first two rounds at Troon; nothing so absolute, immediate or doubtless about his Baltusrol pairing with Rory and Day. But I’m counting on some crowd energy to get Phil untracked early this week, and from there I have nothing but the highest expectations.
Decision of the Week: Trusting that I’m on a decent run of tracking INFORMATION and ANGLES and thinking clearly in my processing thereof, so there’s no reason for holding back in pulling the trigger on plays that have appropriate elements of appeal . . . Still plenty of opportunity enough for in-running plays.
Outrights:
Justin Thomas(100/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- -
Keegan Bradley(110/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- -
Darren Clarke(300/1) e.w. Top European
- - A bit of joy in his step.
Kevin Streelman(80/1) e.w. Top American
- - New Jersey and Tillinghast connections appeal, which are not high in my usual criteria for emphasis in pulling the trigger in majors, but this price (or 250/1 outright) also offers the extra attraction of a value loser.
Jason Dufner(100/1) e.w.
- - In the midst of a very solid season, off his best ever performance at The Open, has a resume featuring strong repeats in certain events, and came through nicely for me at 40/1 in the 2013 P.G.A., and 40/1 in Palm Springs this year, so I see value in this price.
Lee Westwood(80/1) e.w.
- - One way or another, Westwood will be a veteran presence on the Ryder Cup team, but he can do Dazzler a big buddy favor by freeing up a captain’s selection and earning his spot . . . In my book there’s better value here at the first culmination of the 2016 campaign than I perceive with Stricker at 100/1 or Kuchar at 45/1, and other numerous comparisons (and maybe the subtly treacherous for all greens will bizarrely add a favorable storyline).
Charl Schwartzel(60/1) e.w.
- - Not value in my comparisons, just a like.
Dustin Johnson(8/1) e.w.
- - Expecting further corroboration of his Player of the Year season.
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w.
Patrick Reed(50/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Martin Kaymer(66/1) e.w.
Matchups:
Reed(+100) over Grace (Tournament)
Mickelson(+130) over Stenson (Tournament)
Kaymer(+100) over Matsuyama (Tournament)
Holmes(-135) over Willett (Tournament)
Kisner(-105) over Hoffman (Tournament)
Singh(-105) over Toms (Tournament)
D.Johnson(+125) over Willett/Stenson (Thursday)
Thomas(+187) over Cabrera Bello/Casey (Thursday)
GL
Starters . . .
Factoid of the Week:
All sorts of discussion this week on how driving will be crucial, or at least the test will not take the driver out of anyone's hands. But I also heard a couple respected observations that the subtle rolls on the Tillinghast greens are very difficult to read correctly, which gives me pause with some of the better drivers.
Useless stats of the Week:
Majors won by Tiger Woods before Age 33: 14
Majors won by Tiger Woods after Age 33: 0
Majors won by Phil Mickelson before Age 33: 0
Majors won by Phil Mickelson after Age 33: 5
Observations of the Week: (1) Dr. Gio Valiante, commenting on Henrik Stenson’s "insanely brilliant" play at Troon, after which he dedicated the win in honor of his friend Mike Gerbich who sadly lost his battle with cancer the day before the tournament: Grief causes a change in perspective and will suppress anxiety in really good ways. And it came on the biggest stage where there is “no net” and the greatest athletes are pushed to their greatest performances. (2) David Duval: Adding 20 club pros to the P.G.A. field reduces the depth of the field but not the strength of the field (i.e. look to Augusta if you want to find a field lacking both depth and strength).
Parting shot of the Week: I've been wondering whether Casey Martin would be offered a cart to compete in the Olympics.
To my way of thinking thoughts of the Week: I absolutely, immediately and without any doubt loved Mickelson’s pairing with Westwood and Els for the first two rounds at Troon; nothing so absolute, immediate or doubtless about his Baltusrol pairing with Rory and Day. But I’m counting on some crowd energy to get Phil untracked early this week, and from there I have nothing but the highest expectations.
Decision of the Week: Trusting that I’m on a decent run of tracking INFORMATION and ANGLES and thinking clearly in my processing thereof, so there’s no reason for holding back in pulling the trigger on plays that have appropriate elements of appeal . . . Still plenty of opportunity enough for in-running plays.
Outrights:
Justin Thomas(100/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- -
Keegan Bradley(110/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- -
Darren Clarke(300/1) e.w. Top European
- - A bit of joy in his step.
Kevin Streelman(80/1) e.w. Top American
- - New Jersey and Tillinghast connections appeal, which are not high in my usual criteria for emphasis in pulling the trigger in majors, but this price (or 250/1 outright) also offers the extra attraction of a value loser.
Jason Dufner(100/1) e.w.
- - In the midst of a very solid season, off his best ever performance at The Open, has a resume featuring strong repeats in certain events, and came through nicely for me at 40/1 in the 2013 P.G.A., and 40/1 in Palm Springs this year, so I see value in this price.
Lee Westwood(80/1) e.w.
- - One way or another, Westwood will be a veteran presence on the Ryder Cup team, but he can do Dazzler a big buddy favor by freeing up a captain’s selection and earning his spot . . . In my book there’s better value here at the first culmination of the 2016 campaign than I perceive with Stricker at 100/1 or Kuchar at 45/1, and other numerous comparisons (and maybe the subtly treacherous for all greens will bizarrely add a favorable storyline).
Charl Schwartzel(60/1) e.w.
- - Not value in my comparisons, just a like.
Dustin Johnson(8/1) e.w.
- - Expecting further corroboration of his Player of the Year season.
Phil Mickelson(66/1) e.w.
Patrick Reed(50/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(66/1) e.w.
Martin Kaymer(66/1) e.w.
Matchups:
Reed(+100) over Grace (Tournament)
Mickelson(+130) over Stenson (Tournament)
Kaymer(+100) over Matsuyama (Tournament)
Holmes(-135) over Willett (Tournament)
Kisner(-105) over Hoffman (Tournament)
Singh(-105) over Toms (Tournament)
D.Johnson(+125) over Willett/Stenson (Thursday)
Thomas(+187) over Cabrera Bello/Casey (Thursday)
GL
A maximum of only 5 players can be added to My Leaderboard!!
That limitation on the PGA leaderboard does bring to mind another one of my ODDS and ENDS I've been meaning to discuss. When I highlight the names of all the golfers in whom I have an interest, I get overly focused on only those names during my hours of checking leaderboards. But when I don't do any highlighting, and I have to repeatedly scan the leaderboard to find my names of interest, I actually gain much more in terms of INFORMATION and ANGLES on all sorts of players I look into that I would otherwise race by both visually and mentally.
Of course, by Friday afternoon, if not sooner, I have almost always opted for the easier path of highlighting all players of particular interest.
GL
That limitation on the PGA leaderboard does bring to mind another one of my ODDS and ENDS I've been meaning to discuss. When I highlight the names of all the golfers in whom I have an interest, I get overly focused on only those names during my hours of checking leaderboards. But when I don't do any highlighting, and I have to repeatedly scan the leaderboard to find my names of interest, I actually gain much more in terms of INFORMATION and ANGLES on all sorts of players I look into that I would otherwise race by both visually and mentally.
Of course, by Friday afternoon, if not sooner, I have almost always opted for the easier path of highlighting all players of particular interest.
GL
P.G.A.:
I haven’t seen much golf, not quite 3 hours out of 14 hours of coverage. I spent Friday night wishing there were TNT replays. But I’ve been paying attention.
Based on my tracking coming into Baltusrol, there is no question when looking at my card after 36 holes that Grillo is the one that got away. Clearly on my short list with his impossible to ignore appearances. When it came to pulling the trigger my thinking was flawed by wondering if he would sustain . . . It’s a Big Saturday, but he’s been getting comfortable with his frequent Big Saturdays. Big Sundays will be a different question, but that’s not the hazard you worry about most when filling out your card on Thursday with 150/1 e.w. chances.
I love my golf. I’ve enjoyed and sweated and relived and absorbed a lot of important golf.
When looking at the prices just minutes before the start on Friday, no question that Reed at 50/1 e.w. would have been my selection if I had made a post. But I was already on at 50/1 with better e.w. terms, and I wasn’t doubling up. But Grillo got missed again - if he was at least 35/1 e.w.
Olympics - For quite some time I’ve been tracking Soomin Lee, Patrick Reed, Emilliano Grillo and Rafael Cabrera Bello for this spot. Lee didn’t make the team, the other three have short odds but the field is not stellar. Matteo Manassero and Padraig Harrington have recently joined Henrik Stenson on the watch list. It would be too perfect if Manassero earned a bronze medal as a reward for his season. Fowler and Watson are American threats, but I’ll opt for Reed. Aphibarnrat instead of Jaidee for me, but don’t sleep on Lee or Lingmerth instead of Harrington.
Posted before Thursday's off:
Not Streb. Not Walker, if he makes it to Sunday. -7 is leading. Lots of subplots closely lined up behind that.
As a factor to weigh, should probably make note of early/late being the favorable draw.
Some great quotes, courtesy of The Golf Channel:
Kaymer - Late/Early -Now (the next 36 holes) is what we play for, but we can’t plan for it or practice for it. I know when you get it done the satisfaction is massive.
Fowler - Late/Early - The putts are going to drop. I’ve been putting well. It’s good to be swinging well, I’m hitting the driver hard, I’m giving myself opportunities.
Reed - Late/Early - I’ve only been doing this for 3 years and I just had my best ever finish in a major.
Walker - Early/Late - Golf. It’s what we do every week. But I haven’t experienced this. I’m pretty whooped.
Koepka - Early/Late - I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think I could win. (I can manage my ankle, or something similar.) We’ve been playing really well even though I took a month off. (The royal we of Jordan Spieth came perfectly natural off his lips.)
I love The Golf Channel. But way too much Brandel Chamblee every step of the way is the worst thing about it; the moments of good he can provide come with so much bagage. Kelly Tillghman is unobjectionable by comparison.
Around the Horn . . .
Kevin Na - Early/Late - This course should suit. Plenty of room to maneuver his way to the hole, where he gets marvelous Tillinghast visuals.
Mickelson - Early/Late - It’s Jersey. I wish he was playing with Keegan, he might have ripped off a 63. But still a chance he’ll tap some of the synergy. He can carry my cash at 150/1.
Lee Westwood - Early/Late - Not one of my choices for catching lightning from here.
Stenson - Late/Early - Not surprising he’s already shown more minor chinks than he did all week at Troon, but playing fabulous, with no band aids or oxygen needed yet, will be there to pounce if no one wants it more.
Spieth - Early/Late - IMO, not a purple patch for his long game, so not exactly a purple patch for his putting and short game. Not a lot of wedges here, but see Kevin Na.
Rory - Too early - I take back what I said about him early this week. Seems more interested in body sculpting than his golf. Not good. I knew that when pulling the trigger on Wednesday, I just momentarily forgot about it when posting on Sunday.
Andy Sullivan - Early/Late. He’ll push Beef - Late/Early. Or not. . . . Noren could be good for a while. - Late/Early. Or not.
Reed - He’ll push Koepka. No not about it.
In-running:
Phil Mickelson(150/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Alex Noren(300/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Saturday:
Mickelson(-150) 69&Under
Grillo(-105) over Walker
Stenson(-110) over Spieth
Sullivan(-120) over Johnston
Reed(+105) over Koepka
Walker(-110) 70&Over
Fowler(-185) over Donaldson
Olympics:
Emiliano Grillo(33/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w.
Patrick Reed(14/1)(1/3 for 1-2-3) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(70/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w.
Parting Shot from David Duval: So many subplots with Ryder Cup, major champions eveywhere, Olympics, etc. It’s OK as a player if there’s a little bit of rain, deal with it. Let’s just hope there aren’t a lot of storms and not a lot of golf.
GL
I haven’t seen much golf, not quite 3 hours out of 14 hours of coverage. I spent Friday night wishing there were TNT replays. But I’ve been paying attention.
Based on my tracking coming into Baltusrol, there is no question when looking at my card after 36 holes that Grillo is the one that got away. Clearly on my short list with his impossible to ignore appearances. When it came to pulling the trigger my thinking was flawed by wondering if he would sustain . . . It’s a Big Saturday, but he’s been getting comfortable with his frequent Big Saturdays. Big Sundays will be a different question, but that’s not the hazard you worry about most when filling out your card on Thursday with 150/1 e.w. chances.
I love my golf. I’ve enjoyed and sweated and relived and absorbed a lot of important golf.
When looking at the prices just minutes before the start on Friday, no question that Reed at 50/1 e.w. would have been my selection if I had made a post. But I was already on at 50/1 with better e.w. terms, and I wasn’t doubling up. But Grillo got missed again - if he was at least 35/1 e.w.
Olympics - For quite some time I’ve been tracking Soomin Lee, Patrick Reed, Emilliano Grillo and Rafael Cabrera Bello for this spot. Lee didn’t make the team, the other three have short odds but the field is not stellar. Matteo Manassero and Padraig Harrington have recently joined Henrik Stenson on the watch list. It would be too perfect if Manassero earned a bronze medal as a reward for his season. Fowler and Watson are American threats, but I’ll opt for Reed. Aphibarnrat instead of Jaidee for me, but don’t sleep on Lee or Lingmerth instead of Harrington.
Posted before Thursday's off:
- - Now there's been more than a few comments over the first two days about the difficulty of matching up speed and line on the greens. I’ve not seen these Tillinghast greens up close, it may be primarily the poa factor. But I’ve been to numerous U.S. Open venues, and I definitely remember being up close to the greens at Olympia Fields, and in the shadows of the afternoon and early morning you could plainly see the many subtle ridges and bumps that were problematic when matching both the speed and line on the way to the hole.
Not Streb. Not Walker, if he makes it to Sunday. -7 is leading. Lots of subplots closely lined up behind that.
As a factor to weigh, should probably make note of early/late being the favorable draw.
Some great quotes, courtesy of The Golf Channel:
Kaymer - Late/Early -Now (the next 36 holes) is what we play for, but we can’t plan for it or practice for it. I know when you get it done the satisfaction is massive.
Fowler - Late/Early - The putts are going to drop. I’ve been putting well. It’s good to be swinging well, I’m hitting the driver hard, I’m giving myself opportunities.
Reed - Late/Early - I’ve only been doing this for 3 years and I just had my best ever finish in a major.
Walker - Early/Late - Golf. It’s what we do every week. But I haven’t experienced this. I’m pretty whooped.
Koepka - Early/Late - I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think I could win. (I can manage my ankle, or something similar.) We’ve been playing really well even though I took a month off. (The royal we of Jordan Spieth came perfectly natural off his lips.)
I love The Golf Channel. But way too much Brandel Chamblee every step of the way is the worst thing about it; the moments of good he can provide come with so much bagage. Kelly Tillghman is unobjectionable by comparison.
Around the Horn . . .
Kevin Na - Early/Late - This course should suit. Plenty of room to maneuver his way to the hole, where he gets marvelous Tillinghast visuals.
Mickelson - Early/Late - It’s Jersey. I wish he was playing with Keegan, he might have ripped off a 63. But still a chance he’ll tap some of the synergy. He can carry my cash at 150/1.
Lee Westwood - Early/Late - Not one of my choices for catching lightning from here.
Stenson - Late/Early - Not surprising he’s already shown more minor chinks than he did all week at Troon, but playing fabulous, with no band aids or oxygen needed yet, will be there to pounce if no one wants it more.
Spieth - Early/Late - IMO, not a purple patch for his long game, so not exactly a purple patch for his putting and short game. Not a lot of wedges here, but see Kevin Na.
Rory - Too early - I take back what I said about him early this week. Seems more interested in body sculpting than his golf. Not good. I knew that when pulling the trigger on Wednesday, I just momentarily forgot about it when posting on Sunday.
Andy Sullivan - Early/Late. He’ll push Beef - Late/Early. Or not. . . . Noren could be good for a while. - Late/Early. Or not.
Reed - He’ll push Koepka. No not about it.
In-running:
Phil Mickelson(150/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Alex Noren(300/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Saturday:
Mickelson(-150) 69&Under
Grillo(-105) over Walker
Stenson(-110) over Spieth
Sullivan(-120) over Johnston
Reed(+105) over Koepka
Walker(-110) 70&Over
Fowler(-185) over Donaldson
Olympics:
Emiliano Grillo(33/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w.
Patrick Reed(14/1)(1/3 for 1-2-3) e.w.
Matteo Manassero(70/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4-5-6) e.w.
Parting Shot from David Duval: So many subplots with Ryder Cup, major champions eveywhere, Olympics, etc. It’s OK as a player if there’s a little bit of rain, deal with it. Let’s just hope there aren’t a lot of storms and not a lot of golf.
GL
