Fore! 2016

[lostinamerica]

In-running:

My run of solid in-running efforts continued last week with Billy Andrade(20/1) e.w. and Phil Mickelson(100/1) e.w., so I need to stay with it.

J.B. Holmes(33/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
Jordan Spieth(33/1) e.w.
- - I prefer the chances of Holmes making a significant move up the leaderboard, but with only two strokes separating them, Spieth definitely offers better value.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Futures YTD: 10-55 (+3.50*)
Matchups YTD: 1-5 (-4.40*)

Maybank:

Outrights:

Thongchai Jaidee(33/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(35/1) e.w.
Mikko Ilonen(40/1) e.w.
Gregory Bourdy(50/1) e.w.
David Horsey(100/1) e.w.
Marcus Fraser(150/1) e.w.

- - An Indian, a Frenchman, a Swede, a Brazilian, an Australian, a Chinese, an American, a Canadian, an Italian, a South African, a Scotsman, a Dane, an Argentinian, a Nigerian and a Russian walked into a bar. The bartender says, “You can’t come in here without a Thai.”

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Northern Trust:

Outrights:

Justin Rose(16/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(28/1) e.w.
Charles Howell III(90/1) e.w.
Luke Donald(100/1) e.w.
Aaron Baddeley(150/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(160/1) e.w.
Chez Reavie(275/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

- - I was late getting to my computer this morning to finish my research and post any write-ups, but FWIW . . . I may be one week or a few weeks early with Donald, especially since the Tour is heading to Florida, but I think he's tracking, and I think I'm tracking his tracking; but then again, I'd rather be early than late, and his name has always been stuck in my mind when it comes to liking the chances of his game shining at Riviera . . . Glover has been flashing enough game throughout his bag for a while now to the point I'm actually surprised he hasn't featured prominently already on a Saturday leaderboard, or on a Sunday charge (staying on a Sunday leaderboard will be a different matter when his putting yips and his frazzled psyche will get tested with a late tee time), but we will soon see if Florida also isn't a better fit . . . I though Rose played the best golf last week by a clear margin, but his moments to seize the lead kept getting stalled by some typical Poa putting puzzles at Pebble . . . Howell is definitely doing his thing, which probably means a worthless Top 10 . . . I could take it or leave it with Holmes IMO in terms of value at 28/1, but I do think he might contend . . . Baddeley is on my short list I'm tracking, and I didn't make enough time to look into that play further, so I opted for in instead of out . . . Reavie has really impressed me at times recently . . . I think my last names left off my list were Delaet, Tringale and Cabrera, more or less, or not, lol . . .

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

So far, my in-running play for this week:

The Masters:

Charl Schwartzel(55/1) e.w.

GL

 

[scrub]

My guy who I bet to win this week won't win lol , the same guy we both bet for the Masters.I will root for your man Revie

 

[ClubhouseLeader]

Always a great read and an unreal cash with Fraser. Keep up the good work!

 

[lostinamerica]

Futures YTD: 11-67 (+85.25*)
Matchups YTD: 1-5 (-4.40*)

Right from the start of last week, and all the way until a bogey on No. 10 on Sunday, I was really, really liking my play on Chez Reavie(275/1) e.w. So when my "low expectations" play on Marcus Fraser was hanging tough to start the weekend, and then was looking better and better before coming good, I'd say I was having grandiose delusions. Still a great week, and I'm still very pleased with Reavie's performance.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Perth Invitational:

Outrights:

Thorbjorn Olesen(20/1) e.w.
- - He can carry my cash here, and I even think his price offers the best value of the market leaders.

Brett Rumford(20/1) e.w.
- - I’ve been on board with Rumford already this season at prices that were too short.

Marcus Fraser(33/1) e.w.
- - His high ball flight doesn’t suit and I won’t be surprised when he is flat as a pancake. But it never gets old saying I won’t pick up my winning marker.

Alejandro Canizares(35/1) e.w.
- - I don’t care what his stats seem to say, going into Dubai he was on my very short list as I thought his ball striking was spot on, but I stayed away because I thought he was looking like he expected to fail with his putter at crunch time, and even with a T5 it seemed to play out that way. I then thought Malaysia, especially the greens, would be a very poor spot for providing any answers he is seeking, but this week offers possibilities, and off a MC as well as he’s playing is also noteworthy.

Paul Dunne(40/1) e.w.
- - Agreement with those seeing the links connection in their capping.

Daniel Im(100/1) e.w.
- - I’ve been tracking his success and been theorizing the American traveler would merit a play (or at least a close look) in regions where he’s tasted some prior success. But I believe he spent a lot of time rooming with Perth native Terry Pilkadaris, so my thinking here is that he’s playing well and a connection might spark.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Honda Classic:

Outrights:

Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
- - The first time this year (including for good measure at least two of the majors) when I didn’t think Mickelson offered the best value in the field.

Russell Knox(40/1) e.w.
- - His credentials are obvious, and I think he feels the same way.

Boo Weekley(125/1) e.w.
- - The first name with a three figure price which came to mind as one to watch with the rough extra lush this week and the breeze looking to be up.

Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w.
- - A strong test is probably a good venue for GLover, but my gut instinct is I would like that test served up without any extra layers of difficulty from extra lush rough or strong winds.

David Lingmerth(66/1) e.w.
Billy Horschel(125/1) e.w.
Francesco Molinari(175/1) e.w.
Colt Knost(250/1)
- - To some degree I like something each of them has shown me this year, and IMO they can all come good in Florida, in the breeze, when driving is at a premium, early in the season, and on a strong test where par is a good score and a few birdies can go a long way. Webb Simpson is a NR or he was going to get a slot on this second tier. Left on the cutting room floor are Jason Dufner, Luke Donald, Branden Grace and Graeme McDowell . . . And from what I’m seeing and believing I need to add a definite thumbs down to Rory for all his iron pumping which is transforming his natural body shape and seriously risking (maybe not immediately, but soon) the natural rhythm, motion, feel and timing of his loose and fluid swing that is the envy of any great or near great player among his peers.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

WGC - Cadillac:

Futures YTD: 11-81 (+71.25*)
Matchups YTD: 1-5 (-4.40*)

- - I have a lousy record in the WGC events, with the exception of the Match Play, but even then it’s getting to feel like ancient history since I hit with Toms, Ogilvy and Ogilvy. But at least I did score way back in 2003 with Scott Hoch at 70/1 at Doral.

Outrights:

Charl Schwartzel (40/1) e.w.
- - Close to his best from what I’m tracking, with many quality memories to build on here.

Dustin Johnson(14/1) e.w.
- - Has a knack for showing up at the same spots, close to kicking down the door from what I’m tracking.

Phil Mickelson(33/1) e.w.
- - Last week was the first time all season I didn’t really think much of Lefty’s chances. My high expectations are back this week.

Billy Horschel(75/1) e.w.
- - Impressively got his Florida groove on last week, back on my team again this week.

Scott Hend(300/1) e.w.
- - It’s not a bad spot for someone being so rudely dismissed.

George Coetzee(125/1) e.w.
- - Koepka, Rose and Watson were all tempting plays, but I opted instead for another no-hoper.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Futures YTD: 12-86 (+69.88*)
Matchups YTD: 1-5 (-4.40*)

Thailand:

Outrights:

Julien Quesne(40/1) e.w.
Romain Wattel(40/1) e.w.
Lucas Bjerregard(50/1) e.w.
Chapchai Nirat(66/1) e.w.
David Lipsky(80/1) e.w.
Niclas Fasth(400/1) e.w.
- - No particular insights to offer. My objective for this week is just to get someone involved in the proceedings over the weekend in order to keep me involved in the viewing.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Valspar:

Outrights:

Jason Dufner(28/1) e.w.
Kevin Na(40/1) e.w.
K.J. Choi(45/1) e.w.
Fredrik Jacobson(70/1) e.w.
Sean O'Hair(70/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(110/1) e.w.
Chez Reavie(125/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(150/1) e.w.
Erik Compton(500/1) e.w.
- - This week in Thailand I am just hoping to have a selection involved in the proceedings who can keep me interested over the weekend. This week in Florida I think I had a decent feel for deciding who is on and who is off my team, and certainly expect I'll have a selection who can keep me interested over the weekend, and even expect that if they get featured on the leaderboard they will have a real chance to contend through the back nine on Sunday (Lucas Glover excepted, lol) . . . As far as any insights to offer, I'll compare Innisbrook to Sawgrass for having all the players go at the greens from about the same places in the fairway (and without checking, I think there are 5 Par 3s to boot), and continuing the Sawgrass comparison, while the tests into, around and on the greens are similar, one course tends to be embraced and appealing to visit each year, while Sawgrass has few adherents, and even they will get chewed up and spit out from time to time.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Valspar

In-running:

Martin Kaymer(55/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
- - Just a little something I saw, sans putting.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Hero Indian Open:

Outrights:

Julien Quesne(55/1) e.w.
Prom Meesawat(66/1) e.w.
Lee Slatterey(80/1) e.w.
Jeev Milkha Singh(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Outrights:

Kevin Kisner(55/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(200/1) e.w.
Webb Simpson(80/1) e.w.
Henrik Stenson(14/1) e.w.
Paul Casey(40/1) e.w.
Chez Reavie(100/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(200/1) e.w.

GL

**************************************

"Arnie has more people watching him park the car than we do out on the course." ~ Lee Trevino

 

[lostinamerica]

Match Play:


Outrights:

Phil Mickelson(35/1) e.w.
Zach Johnson(50/1) e.w.
Patton Kizzire(150/1) e.w.


Matchups:

Haas(-135) over Wood


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Puerto Rico:

Outrights:

Patrick Rodgers(25/1) e.w.
Derek Fathauer(60/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(66/1) e.w.
Aaron Baddeley(66/1) e.w.
Morgan Hoffmann(80/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Thursday:

Z.Johnson(-170) over Kaymer

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Friday:

Mickelson(-105) over Reed
Moore(-150) over Westwood
Cabrera-Bello(-160) over Kjeldsen
Piercy(+115) over Dufner


GL