Fantasy Football News 2015/16

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Top Week 1 D/ST options, IDPs to monitor[/h][h=1]Jeff Ratcliffe, Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER[/h]Defense wins championships, and streaming defenses wins fantasy championships.
It's not rocket science. You don't need to invest in the team defense position to dominate your league. Sorry to those out there who drafted the Seattle Seahawksin the eighth round, but it's true.
Unless you're in a crazy-deep league, you're going to have several strong options on your waiver wire every week. Other than kicker, you can't say that about any other position in fantasy. Even the worst defenses in the league can put up big fantasy points in the right matchup. Just look at what the Atlanta Falcons did to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3 last season (28 standard points).
Each week this season, I'm going to take a look at all of the fantasy defense/special teams (D/ST) matchups, highlighting the good, the bad and the ugly. The following is a breakdown of my thoughts for the week, and should not be read as an ordinary rankings column. Instead, it's best to consider the following as a set of tiers each week, and use them to help you make D/ST decisions.
I'll also point out how you can use this information to make your DFS decisions and give you some IDP waiver wire adds each week.
Feel free to shoot me a tweet if you have any specific questions about start/sit dilemmas that I don't answer here.
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[h=2]Set it and forget it[/h]You didn't draft the Seattle Seahawks (at STL) to sit them in the first week, did you? ... If you read my preseason article on streaming, then you already know that the Miami Dolphins (at WAS) get one of the best opening slates of games to start the season. With Ndamukong Suh now anchoring the defensive line, this Dolphins unit is going to be a fantasy force during the first month of the season. ... With one of the league's most formidable front sevens and a beefed up secondary, the New York Jets (vs. CLE) should feast on the Browns. Josh McCown, the Browns' starting QB, played 11 games last season for the Buccaneers. In those games, he threw 14 interceptions and fumbled nine times.
[h=2]Still solid[/h]You're not dropping the Houston Texans (vs. KC) for a streamer this week, but keep in mind that they face a conservative Chiefs offense that yielded double-digit fantasy points only five times last season. Still, you're rolling with the Texans and looking forward to their next two matchups against the Panthers and Buccaneers. ... Don't expect the Philadelphia Eagles (at ATL) to put up 11 touchdowns again this season, but this Eagles unit still offers a lot of upside. Atlanta was a mid-pack matchup last season, but you're not likely to find much better on your waiver wire.
[h=2]Streamers[/h]Carolina Panthers (at JAC): The No. 1 fantasy defense last season was the unit who played the Jacksonville Jaguars. True story. Opposing defenses racked up 213 fantasy points against Jacksonville last season, which outscored the top-ranked Bills D/ST by 43 points. Now, I do expect to see some improvement out of Gus Bradley's squad this season, but this matchup is too good to pass up.
Cincinnati Bengals (at OAK): The Bengals regressed as a unit last season, but they're worth a long look in Week 1 against an Oakland offense that finished as the fifth-best fantasy matchup for opposing defenses in 2014. Surprisingly, the Raiders' offensive line kept Derek Carr relatively clean last season, yielding just 27 sacks. But Oakland struggled to put points on the board, ranking 31st in the league with an average of just 15.8 points per game.
Cleveland Browns (at NYJ): While I prefer the Jets' defense, both sides of this matchup are good plays in what projects to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week. The Browns are in their second season under Mike Pettine, and they have some decent pieces in place (like edge rusher Paul Kruger) to exploit this matchup against a Jets team that yielded the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses last season.
Tennessee Titans (at TB): A rookie quarterback in his first professional start tends to bode positively for opposing fantasy defenses. Especially when said rookie quarterback (Jameis Winston) threw a combined 28 interceptions in the past two seasons in college. The Titans won't be in play most weeks this season, but they're a strong streamer in Week 1.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. TEN): One good turn deserves another. The Buccaneers managed just two double-digit fantasy performances last season, butLavonte David and Co. make for a sneaky play this week against Marcus Mariotaand a very young Titans offense.
Indianapolis Colts (at BUF): The Colts took fantasy owners on a roller coaster ride last season with eight double-digit fantasy point performances and five games with negative fantasy points. This week is more likely to be the former against a Bills team with Tyrod Taylor under center.
Kansas City Chiefs (at HOU): Sure, Kansas City boasts one of the league's elite pass rushers in Justin Houston (22 sacks last season), but outside of him this unit is generally "blah." However, they're intriguing this week against a Texans offense with Arian Foster sidelined and Brian Hoyer at the helm.
Minnesota Vikings (at SF): Mike Zimmer's defense is one of the league's up-and-coming units. With talent at all three levels, the Vikings make for a strong streamer this week against a 49ers team that yielded the 8th-most fantasy points per game to opposing defenses last season.
[h=2]Matchup downgrade[/h]Buffalo Bills (vs. IND): The Bills are coming off a monster 2014 season where they posted a league-high 54 sacks and finished as the top fantasy scorer at the position. That being said, they get a rough opener againstAndrew Luck and the Colts. Last season, Indianapolis averaged 28.6 points and 406.6 yards per game. Don't drop the Bills, but you may want to find a quality streamer to start this week.
Baltimore Ravens (at DEN): Sure, the Denver Broncos are a different team than they were in 2013 when Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdowns. You're going to see more two-tight end sets and a lot more running this season under Gary Kubiak. But this is still an offense that is bursting with talent and is more than capable of putting points on the board in bunches. Last season, the Broncos yielded a league-low average of one fantasy point per week to opposing defenses. You read that right.
Denver Broncos (vs. BAL): There's a lot to like about the Broncos' defense, and I fully expect them to be a top-10 unit this season. However, they open the season with a tough matchup against a Ravens team that yielded the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing defenses last season. While the Baltimore offense will look different under new coordinator Marc Trestman, it's tough to trust the Broncos this week.
New England Patriots (vs. PIT): Both defenses in this contest get a poor matchup, but those who drafted the Patriots may want to look elsewhere this week. Pittsburgh was one of only five teams to yield fewer than three fantasy points per game to opposing defenses last season.
St. Louis Rams (vs. SEA): The Rams were likely one of the first five defenses drafted in your league, but it's hard to like them this week against a Seahawks squad that gave up double-digit fantasy points to just two opponents last season.
[h=2]The rest[/h]The Arizona Cardinals (vs. NO) kick off the season with a difficult matchup against a potentially explosive New Orleans Saints offense that gave up an average of 4.6 fantasy points per game last season. ... The Detroit Lions (at SD) were a top-five defense last season, but could take a step back with Ndamukong Suh now in Miami. ... The Green Bay Packers (at CHI) offer a high fantasy ceiling, but there are too many question marks to trust this unit in Week 1. ... The San Diego Chargers (vs. DET) are about as middle-of-the-road as they come. You likely have better options this week than San Diego anyway. ... The Dallas Cowboys (vs. NYG) will be a streamer this season, but not in Week 1 with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain suspended. ... Gus Bradley's defense is improving, but we need to see it before trusting theJacksonville Jaguars (vs. CAR). ... Likewise, the Oakland Raiders (vs. CIN) are trending up with Khalil Mack poised to break out, but they're still just a team to monitor at this point.
[h=2]Bottom of the Barrel[/h]This isn't your father's San Francisco 49ers (vs. MIN) defense. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and Chris Borland are all no longer with the team, and that's not a good thing. ... Only the Raiders scored fewer fantasy points than the New Orleans Saints (at ARI) D/ST last season, and the Saints did little to improve in the offseason. ... The Atlanta Falcons (vs. PHI)are trending in the right direction under new head coach Dan Quinn, but it's tough to like them on Monday night against a Chip Kelly offense that averaged 29.6 points per game last season. ... Only the Saints and Raiders scored fewer fantasy points than the Washington Redskins (vs. MIA) in 2014. ... The youthful Pittsburgh Steelers (at NE) unit gets a tough draw in the opener against Tom Brady and the Patriots. ... The injury bug hit the New York Giants' (at DAL) defense hard this offseason. They'll likely be without Jason Pierre-Paul in this one. ... Jordy Nelson is out for the season, but Aaron Rodgersand the Packers are still a terrible matchup for opposing defenses. Avoid theChicago Bears (vs. GB) this week.
[h=2]DFS plays[/h]It's an interesting slate this week over at DraftKings, with prices ranging from Seattle ($3,400) at the high end and Oakland ($2,300) at the low end. While Carolina ($3,100) is one of the most expensive options, its matchup against the Jaguars justifies the cost and should yield a nice return on investment. Likewise, Miami ($3,000) isn't cheap, but makes for a strong play against Kirk Cousinsand the potentially anemic Washington offense. I also like the Jets ($2,900) to capitalize on this matchup against Josh McCown. Those looking to save a little bit of money at the position may want to use Tennessee ($2,800) or Tampa Bay ($2,800). As I mentioned above, both units face rookie quarterbacks, though I'd give preference to the Titans.
[h=2]IDP waivers[/h]For those who dabble in the dark arts of IDP fantasy football, I'll also be providing some priority waiver claims each week. While this really won't get rolling until next week, I wanted to give you a few players whose fantasy stock is trending upward as we enter the season.


Vincent Rey, LB, Bengals: WithVontaze Burfict on the PUP list and not eligible to return until Week 8, the Bengals have turned to Rey as their lone every-down linebacker in the preseason. To those looking for rookie Paul Dawson to step up, it's going to take some time. For now, Rey is the linebacker to own in Cincinnati, and he should be considered an upside LB3 going forward.
Gerald Hodges, LB, Vikings: There was an open competition for the middle linebacker job in Minnesota this preseason, and with the dust settling, it appears Hodges has edged rookie Eric Kendricks for the gig. Expect Hodges to play in the subpackages over Chad Greenway, which pushes Greenway off the fantasy radar. Hodges is a capable tackler who flashed serious IDP upside last season.
Kwon Alexander, LB, Buccaneers: In a surprising turn of events, the rookie Alexander beat out veteran Bruce Carter for the starting middle linebacker job in Tampa Bay. Keep in mind that Alexander's tackle upside will be limited playing alongside Lavonte David, but he's playing all three-downs and therefore has fantasy value. Those in deeper leagues will want to scoop up the former LSU linebacker.
Ramik Wilson, LB, Chiefs: Here's another rookie linebacker to keep an eye on. While not as high profile as others in this year's class like Stephone Anthonyor Alexander, Wilson had a great camp and appears to have won the starting inside linebacker job alongside Derrick Johnson. More importantly, the Chiefs have trusted him to play on every down in the preseason. This isn't a play for those in shallow leagues, but Wilson is worth a flier in deep formats.
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</article>Kony Ealy, DE, Panthers: The right defensive end position was a bit of a sore spot for the Panthers last season, but Ealy looks like he may give them some stability. Now entering his second season, Ealy racked up nine quarterback pressures (sum of sacks, hits and hurries) this preseason per Pro Football Focus. With defensive end extremely thin this season, Ealy's is a name to know.
Eddie Pleasant, S, Texans: Right now, you're probably asking yourself, "who?" But with D.J. Swearinger now in Tampa Bay, Pleasant took the starting strong safety job and ran with it. Now, I'm not suggesting you run out and pick up Pleasant today. Defensive back is the most streamable of the IDP positions, so you'll want to include Pleasant on your list of defensive backs to monitor.

Adrian Amos, S, Bears: You're also going to want to keep an eye on Amos in Chicago. The rookie out of Penn State looks to have assumed the starting job in the Bears' secondary with Ryan Mundy on injured reserve with a hip injury. Amos could prove to be a quality streamer this season.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Bradford being overlooked in Week 1 rankings[/h]
Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

So, now that you’ve selected the players for your fantasy football team(s), those draft rankings we all used … um yeah, they just don’t matter. Seriously, all the prep, the entire process -- time to move on. Whether you chose a certain running back in round 4 and another in round 7 really has no bearing in deciding which is the better option for Week 1 or any week beyond, so just forget how they were acquired. Keeper versus drafted guy, same thing. I look at potential lineups for my many teams this week and all that matters now is this: "Who will score more fantasy points on Sunday … or Thursday and Monday?" You get the idea.
Whereas I find it’s generally a bad idea to predict strength of schedule for an entire season as a means to deciding between running backs -- or any position, really -- in a given week I’m doing precisely this. It partially drives the value and can get a bit dangerous, because several of last season’s top defenses will be anything but in 2015, and vice versa. Well, the Chicago Bears won’t be a good defense, but in general, I think you follow the point. I’m not the guy that simply ranks in Week 1 the way the preseason rankings appeared. They’re very different animals, and while there’s a place for some loyalty, don’t ignore pertinent information. Sam Bradford over Andrew Luck this week? Sure, go for it! I did.
Each Wednesday in this space for the rest of 2015, in conjunction with the staff rankings being posted, I’ll focus on what I was thinking that apparently was a bit different than my colleagues. It could be subtle, for sure. For example, I don’t see too many NFL defenses that would alter how I’d project a top quarterback likeAaron Rodgers or Luck, but the Rex Ryan-led Buffalo Bills at home are one of them. That’s why Luck isn’t among my top-5 quarterbacks for the weekend. Rank Luck first just because I did for the season’s entirety? These rankings are for this weekend only. Plus, how many weeks is Luck actually going to finish first? Four, maybe five? One week Kirk Cousins or a guy not even starting this week, like Johnny Manziel or Zach Mettenberger, will lead. Happens every season.
Anyway, I like the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons to produce many points this week. It’s not solely because the Philly offense thrived this preseason. Bradford is healthy, today. Hopefully he’ll be healthy in four months as well. Nobody should be rooting for injuries. The Falcons were not a good defense last season but the reason I like Eagles this weekend is because I don’t view the Falcons as being much better on defense today. I ranked Bradford in my top 10, while running back DeMarco Murray, handled with much care for the past few months since his arrival, is among my top-5 at his position, and I like wide receivers Jordan Matthews and rookie Nelson Agholor more than most. I did not rank tight end Zach Ertz, at least as of Wednesday, because I don’t think he plays. If he does, he’d be top 10 for me there as well.
Meanwhile, the Bills play excellent defense for a defensive-minded coach. While I do still view Luck as the top quarterback for fantasy, this should be one of his more challenging games. Remember last December when the awesome Rodgers went to Buffalo and delivered his worst fantasy game of the season? I do. I hear from fantasy owners all the time preaching about “sticking with their studs” and hey, I don’t think Luck will be bad. He’s in my top 10. But yeah, if I chose Bradford 12 rounds later, so what? I think Bradford will score more fantasy points. This isn’t about loyalty. The players don’t care if you start or sit them. When I coach my kids’ soccer teams, kids get upset if they don’t start. Luck doesn’t care. Bradford doesn’t care. Strip your biases and aim to be objective in what is a very subjective situation.
QB notes: We’ll be updating our rankings all through the week -- the “we” is Matthew Berry, Field Yates, Tristan Cockcroft and Mike Clay -- and there should be changes, so don’t quote any rank. Initially, at least, my entire QB rankings nearly matched the staff average except Bradford’s place, so I don’t have much to discuss here. My reaction to the rankings is they look a lot like mine. … Owners discuss the “trash time” aspect of QB play quite a bit, and for this week, and perhaps many, Jay Cutler of the Bears fits the description. … Who probably deserves to be ranked better? That’s Eli Manning of the New York Giants. Wanted to make him top-10, couldn’t fit him in.
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</article>RB notes: Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch has rushed for more than 60 yards in only one of the past four contests with the St. Louis Rams. He’s still in my top 10, but barely. It’s Week 1, not a career recognition contest. … Same with LeSean McCoy making his Bills debut. He’s clearly not at 100 percent. He admitted it. Buffalo should be able to be run on Indianapolis, but will McCoy and his hamstring get more than 15 touches? I have concerns. And I ranked handcuff Karlos Williams kind of nicely. … I’m rarely a big fan of New York Jets starter Chris Ivory, and I was alone in ranking him outside the top-20. I can live with that. … I like the Oakland Raiders this week to win. I rankedLatavius Murray nicely and Amari Cooper, watch out, even versus a strongCincinnati Bengals defense. … Houston Texans fill-in Alfred Blue might not be a great play in a month, but he’s a good one this week. … You can’t trust a Dallas Cowboys running back this week. I think Joseph Randle will do well, but four of us have Tampa Bay Buccaneers reclamation project Doug Martin ranked better. That’s telling.
WR notes: There aren’t many outliers at this position for the group. For me, I ranked the Bears’ Alshon Jeffery the worst, but still top-20. I think he will play, but I’m concerned this game is 28-7 early in the second quarter and he’s shut down. … Similar concerns with the Bucs’ Mike Evans. How much will he play? …Jeremy Maclin scores a touchdown in his first game for the Kansas City Chiefs, and not just because it didn’t happen for an Alex Smith wide receiver last season. Smith will look at Maclin a lot. … I alone ranked the Packers’ Davante Adams as a WR2, because I see Rodgers torching the Chicago secondary, but I also rankedJames Jones later. Yeah, I think he’ll matter for deep leagues. … I don’t think the Giants’ Rueben Randle is a star, but Victor Cruz isn’t playing and Dallas will be thrown on. … Want a home run guy late? Jacksonville will be thrown on. I know none of us ranked the Carolina Panthers’ Cam Newton particularly well, but someone’s catching the football. I chose Philly Brown. Big week for Mr. Philly … and the Philly Eagles.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Love/Hate: Winning in Week 1 is the first step to not finishing last[/h]Matthew Berry, Fantasy

The most important thing is to win. Let's start there. As we open up the first Love/Hate of the regular season, I want to underline that. Up front and center, we are trying to win.
But, perhaps a close second ... we do not want to lose. Not everyone can win, but if we play it right, at least we won't finish last.
This started a few years ago when I was looking for stories about punishments for people who finished last in their fantasy league for my book "Fantasy Life." And I've got to tell you, I was blown away with what some people do. The amount of creativity is amazing. It was a hugely popular part of the book. I got even more great ones for the paperback and it continues to this day, as people tweet me all the time with pictures and video of punishments, using #fantasylife.
Because it has been a year since we did this, I thought before we start the season we should look at some of the best ones that were submitted to me on Twitter or via the Fantasy Life app to remind what we play for ... and what we play to avoid.

It seems most punishments fall into one of a few buckets. Forcing the loser to do or wear something embarrassing at the draft ...


Here's to you enjoying one of these punishments on one of your league-mates ... and with that, we wander into Love/Hate.
This year, the column will still be the same as you have always known. Intros, lots of players, and this season we will add more of a focus on daily fantasy (DFS), specifically geared toward the official daily fantasy sports provider of ESPN, DraftKings.com. In case you've somehow been under a rock, we are doing a pretty cool promotion with them. Sign up to play in a league on ESPN.com (there's still time!) and then enter the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings.com.
The person playing in a League Manager (LM) league on ESPN.com who scores the highest on DraftKings wins $1 million to share between him/herself and everyone he/she plays with in LM leagues. The winner gets $100,000 and other $900,000 is split equally between him/her and the members of each of the LM leagues he/she is in. That simple. The idea is to encourage folks to play with us here at ESPN.com; someone from ESPN will win $1 million for him/herself and his/her league-mates in Week 1. Guaranteed. So hopefully you'll play in more LM leagues ... more chances to win, don'tcha know? Nice how that works out. Don't worry about links, if you win, we'll find you. But more details are available at ESPN.com/draftkings. And if you want to try DraftKings for free, they are doing a $100,000 freeroll (which means $100,000 in prizes, but it doesn't cost to play) with me for Week 1. Use promo code TMR when you go to DraftKings.com.
As always, Love/Hate is based on general perception of how players are viewed and my personal take on them. Just because I "love" Doug Martin and "hate"Marshawn Lynch doesn't mean you start Martin over Lynch. Rather that, especially when it comes to the salary cap format of daily games such as DraftKings (DK), Martin is a better value to me.
Hates are always tough for me because it is either saying bench a stud, which in season-long play is almost impossible to do, or it is being negative on a marginal player. Now, the "hates" are very geared toward DFS, which makes more sense, as you can "hate" a stud's price that week.
For those of you who have never played DFS before and are curious what some of the phrases mean (it's not tough, I'm sure you'll figure it out), you should check out Renee Miller's excellent glossary.
One last reminder before we dig in: This is all written late Wednesday night. As always, players' status, ranks and values change all the time. Always consult our rankings page for specific start/sit questions, check out the daily podcast, and tune into ESPN on Sunday. That's right, I said ESPN, not ESPN2 (though that's great too). This year, I am joining the cast of our new show NFL Insiders: Sunday edition (10-11 a.m. ET) and then I will be part of Sunday NFL Countdown (11 a.m.-1 p.m. ET) on ESPN. I also will still contribute to Fantasy Football Now, which continues on ESPN2 from 11 a.m.-1 p.m. ET. Can't wait. Really excited.
OK. Enough plugs. Big shoutout to Jacob Nitzberg, Robert Nelson and the crazy kids over at ESPN Stats & Information for their help. Let's get to it.
[h=2]Quarterbacks I love in Week 1[/h]Tom Brady, Patriots: Want a stat or want gut? 'Cause I got both. Stats say that last season the Patriots ran the most plays with two tight ends on the field in the NFL. With Gronk and the underrated Scott Chandler, they're going to do just that. Especially because the Steelers' defense allowed the most completions, yards and TDs against two-plus TE sets last season. Gut says ... national audience and whatever you think of them, the Patriots feel they've been unfairly accused. After the offseason Brady has had, watch him make a huge statement here. Especially with LeGarrette Blount suspended. The Tom Brady Blank You 2015 Tour starts Thursday. He's worth his DraftKings price of $7,700.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers: In two games against the Bears last season: 617 yards, 10 touchdowns. If you want to go top shelf in DFS at QB, Rodgers is the play.
Matt Ryan, Falcons: Lotta points in this one, and the Falcons will need to throw to keep up with Philly. An uncertain ground game, lotta snaps thanks to Philly's up-tempo offense and then there's this stat: Only one quarterback has totaled at least 300 total yards and multiple touchdowns in three straight season openers ... Matt Ryan. Two first names, always a crowd pleaser. He's $7,500 on DraftKings.
The price is right


This is a new section I am adding to Love/Hate this year, highlighting a few cheaper options for DFS on DraftKings.
Sam Bradford, Eagles ($6,900):You saw the preseason, didn't you? Well, then, what are you staring at? The Eagles are tough to game plan for regardless, but the first game of the season? Against a defense that ranked last against the pass last season and got a sack on just 3.6 percent of opponent dropbacks, the second-lowest figure in the league? The Falcons upgraded the defense in the offseason through the draft and free agency, but that will take time to jell. Among the games with the highest over/under in Vegas, this game should have a ton of scoring on both sides of the ball. Bradford is healthy now and I love him at his price.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers ($7,300): His price is middle of the pack and with no Le'Veon Bell and Brady pouring it on, he's gonna be chucking it all night as well.
Philip Rivers, Chargers ($7,100): The Lions allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight of their final 10 games last season and losing Ndamukong Suh this offseason won't help pressure Rivers into making mistakes.
Tony Romo, Cowboys ($7,300): This game will be shootout city, which wasn't the name of a bad video game in the '80s, but should have been.
If you're desperate: It won't be pretty, but mobile QBs get fantasy points, so I am very intrigued by Tyrod Taylor, especially at his minimum $5,000 price ...Derek Carr was top five in pass attempts last season and now faces a Bengals defense that was passed on more often than 30 teams last season and ranked dead last in sacks. A Derek Carr/Amari Cooper stack would be a fairly low-owned stack for tournament play.
[h=2]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 1[/h]The "hates" this year are going to be much more DFS-focused, as if you own these big names in season-long leagues, you're obviously starting them. I know, I already said that, but half of you skip that part, so I'm putting it here as well to save both of us time on Twitter.
Andrew Luck, Colts: He's a stud, with or without the long, crazy beard. If you own him, you're starting him. But as the second-highest-priced QB on DraftKings ($8,300), on the road against a Bills team that allowed just 16 touchdowns through the air last season? The fewest in the NFL? I'd rather go cheaper or pay the extra $200 for Rodgers.
Drew Brees, Saints: I'm guessing the Cardinals leave the roof open for this game. During his career, Brees has played worse outdoors, averaging 249 yards and 1.7 TD passes per game (compared to more than 300 yards and 2.3 TD passes indoors). It will take a while to adjust to life without Jimmy Graham, and on the road in Arizona -- with the fourth-highest price tag among QBs on DK -- is not the place to find out.
Jay Cutler, Bears: New offense, banged-up receiving corps and then ... the matchup. In 10 games against the Packers (as a member of the Bears), Cutler has 13 TDs, 21 INTs and averages only 183 passing yards per game. Nope.
Cam Newton, Panthers:
The scene: EverBank Field, Jacksonville
Cam Newton drops back to pass. As he does ... an angel appears on one shoulder. A devil appears on the other.
Devil: What are you doing? Don't throw it! Do you see Philly Brown out there? The guy who can't catch? Don't throw it there! He's terrible! By the way, Ted Ginn Jr. just outran your arm by 50 yards.
Angel: Don't look at me. I'm with him. Those guys suck. (Angel takes halo off, sits down, crosses legs, lights cigarette and sighs.)
Cam looks toward Greg Olsen, now covered by six guys. As he looks over there, he is sacked. Again. By the team that was tied for the sixth-most sacks in the NFL last year. Cam is slow to get up.
Angel (to Devil): And you thought the Johnny Manziel gig sucked ...
[h=2]Running backs I love in Week 1[/h]Eddie Lacy, Packers: Another obvious name, but mentioning him here because I believe he is worth the price on DraftKings ($7,500, sixth highest). Expect the Packers to go a bit more run-heavy as they ease their new receiving corps into things, especially because no team has allowed more yards per rush during the past two seasons than the Bears (4.85), and their 34 rush TDs allowed are tied for fifth most in that span. The Bears will be without DTJeremiah Ratliff (suspension) and will often be playing on a short field for the Packers after Cutler turns it over (I'm guessing).
DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews, Eagles: In case you missed it, I'm kind of on the Eagles this week. The Falcons allowed 21 rushing TDs last season, three more than any other team in the NFL and as I said in the Bradford section, it's going to take a while for the new pieces on defense to jell. The Eagles run so many snaps in a game, everyone gets to touch the ball. It's fun that way! Murray is just the 11th-highest guy on DK ($6,700) and Mathews should get 10 to 12 touches, which makes him potentially flex worthy in season-long play and an interesting flyer at $3,600 on DK.
Jeremy Hill, Bengals: After piling up the most rushing yards in the NFL from Week 9 on last season, it's Jeremy Hill's world, we just live in it. I mean, what are they gonna do? Let Andy Dalton throw it? Exactly. Oakland's defense is not a joke, but they're still a few pieces away as well. He's not a bargain at $7,100, but should return that value for cash games or 50/50s on Draft Kings.
The price is right
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: What are they gonna do? Let Andy Dalton throw it? Er, I mean Cam? Did I use that joke already? Sorry, I write this column behind the Panthers offensive line and I was dizzy from getting hit so much. I do think the Jags' defense is better than they get credit for, but they did give up at least 100 rushing yards and a touchdown to opposing running backs eight times last season. Volume is the key to Stewart here, especially because I expect him to be involved in the passing game a decent amount and the Jags did struggle with pass-catching backs last season. Stewart is $5,800 on DraftKings, 15th highest.
Chris Ivory, Jets ($4,100): Going to get the ball a ton against a team that allowed the most rushing yards in the league last season.
Doug Martin, Buccaneers ($4,500): DraftKings set their prices before Doug Martin decided to look like Doug Martin again in the preseason. He'll be a very popular play on DraftKings and against the Titans, a successful one as well.
Rashad Jennings, Giants: Whom do you think Dallas is worried about? Rashad Jennings or Odell Beckham Jr.? Jennings will find a decent amount of nickel coverage to run against and it's worth noting that he averaged 95 yards in games last season in which he recorded at least 10 carries. We don't know yet how Shane Vereen and Andre Williams will figure in, but Dallas did give up 10 rushing touchdowns in its final nine games of 2014 and you could do much worse for $5,100 in a high-scoring game. I prefer him in tournaments rather than head-to-head games, but the upside is there.
If you're desperate: Usual caveats apply with a Patriots running back, butDion Lewis ($3,000) should get a decent amount of looks in the "Shane Vereen role" ... C.J. Spiller is expected to miss the game Sunday, which means Khiry Robinson ($3,000) should get double-digit touches. ... Todd Gurley is out and there's a chance Tre Mason could be as well, so Benjamin Cunningham ($3,000) would get a lot of work. It's against Seattle, so, you know, not ideal, but this is the desperate section we are in. Don't make that face. Come on. You've done worse.
[h=2]Running backs I hate in Week 1[/h]
Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: If you own him in season-long leagues, of course you're starting him, but I don't love him in daily this week. I feel the offensive line for Seattle is still a work in progress and while he catches more balls than you think, Lynch is not a great PPR play (DraftKings scoring). In his past four games against the Rams, he has averaged less than 60 yards rushing and has not scored in his two games at St. Louis the past two years. At $7,300, there are better options at that price range. He's a good contrarian pick, if you want, as I expect his ownership in tournaments to be low this weekend, but other than that ... we're all here so we don't get fined, Marshawn. We all are.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers: I own him in a few season-long leagues, so I'm starting him. I have no choice. But in the $5,500 price range, I'm looking elsewhere. Gordon is expected to leave the field on third down and passing plays, he looked just OK in the preseason. And his first start is against a defense that was No. 1 against the run last season. Yeah, the Lions lost Suh, but they'll still be a force to be reckoned with.
Alfred Morris, Washington: In Kirk Cousins' nine career starts, Morris has averaged 66.6 rushing yards and 0.44 rushing TDs per game on 3.66 yards per rush. All of those numbers are below Morris' career averages. He doesn't catch passes (watch out for my beloved Matt Jones!), is going against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and is $5,500 in DK, more than Frank Gore andCarlos Hyde and the same as Lamar Miller, all of whom I like more.
[h=2]Wide receivers I love in Week 1[/h]Julio Jones, Falcons: See Ryan, Matt. What's the record for targets in a game? A billion? A billion five? Jones is the most expensive wideout on DraftKings at $9,300 and I say he's worth it.
Randall Cobb, Packers: Cobb is ninth in price on DK ($8,000) but first in Aaron Rodgers' heart. Five, count 'em, five receiving touchdowns in his past three games versus the Bears and, you know, the whole no-Jordy thing.
A.J. Green, Bengals: Just the 11th-highest priced guy on DK ($7,800), Green is underrated because of his injury last season, but was once again, he's very productive when healthy. Oakland's defense has improved, but not that much. Plus, he tends to rock the first game of the season: 21 catches for 404 yards and four touchdowns in his four career season openers.
Julian Edelman, Patriots: Off the injury report and into our hearts! Wait, I used that line, too? Damn it. You try writing behind this line. Come on guys, help me out here. Meanwhile, see Brady, Tom.
The price is right
Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers: The Titans currently have nine players listed at cornerback or safety on their active roster. None of them are taller than 6-foot-1. Evans and Jackson are each listed at 6-foot-5. Jackson's $6,000 price tag is especially inviting.
Charles Johnson, Vikings: Johnson was targeted on 23 percent of Teddy Bridgewater's passes during Minnesota's final seven games, and I've been very vocal about the fact that I am team Johnson, not Wallace, as far as who is the Vikings' No. 1 guy. Just $4,900 on DraftKings, I've used a Bridgewater-Johnson stack in more than one lineup this week. Plus, if you watch with a buddy, you can root for him while using Norv as a verb. "Hahaha I just Norved you!" "Norv this, punk." "Yo! You going to the fridge? I'm Norving!"
Davante Adams, Packers: At just $4,400, he's a must-own in daily this week. Everyone else will have him and you won't find that kind of production at that price elsewhere, so, you know ... the cost of doing business. Also, if I own him in season-long, I'm starting him.
Eddie Royal, Bears: This will be a high-scoring game and Cutler has to throw to someone. Really like him in PPR and daily (just $3,900 on DK).
If you're desperate: Rueben Randle gets the "let's ignore him to focus on OBJ" slot this week and is $5,100 ... Stevie Johnson has had a nice preseason, and I don't believe San Diego will be able to run much on Detroit, meaning the Chargers will have to throw. And no Antonio Gates means Johnson is in play, especially at $3,700. ... Allen Robinson got all the (deserved) preseason hype, but Allen Hurns will get some love as well in a nice matchup for just $4,000.
[h=2]Wide receivers I hate in Week 1[/h]Alshon Jeffery, Bears: Banged up and a bad matchup; in six career games versus the Packers, Jeffery has a total of two receiving touchdowns and has never eclipsed 80 receiving yards. I have him in a season-long league and I'm starting him, but I'm avoiding him in daily.
Sammy Watkins, Bills: On a run-first team with a young QB, I need to see it from Watkins before I'm ready to trust him against a secondary that was top-12 last season. He's $7,000 on DraftKings and I'd much rather have Brandin Cooks($7,100), Jeremy Maclin ($6,900), Amari Cooper ($6,700) and Julian Edelman ($6,600) in the same price range.
Torrey Smith, 49ers: I've used this stat before, but it's worth repeating: Last season, more than 30 percent of Smith's receptions came on passes 15-plus yards downfield. His new QB Colin Kaepernick completed 33 percent of such passes last season, tied with Geno Smith for fourth worst in the NFL.
[h=2]Tight ends I love in Week 1[/h]Rob Gronkowski, Patriots: It's Jeremy Hill's world, but it's Rob Gronkowski's universe. We merely exist as specks of dust in it. As safe a play as there is this week, he's fully healthy and target one, two and three for Brady. At $7,000, he's worth every penny.
Greg Olsen, Panthers ($5,300): For all my fellow fans of "The League," sometimes you don't have to be the prettiest girl in the bar, you just have to be the only girl in the bar. Greg Olsen is the only girl in the bar.
The price is right
Jason Witten, Cowboys: Since 2013, he has 13 touchdowns. Five have come against the New York Football Giants. And at just $4,000, this should be a game with a high floor and a bit of upside for him.
Owen Daniels, Broncos ($3,400): As long as he is healthy and playing withPeyton Manning, he has value. Peyton pays attention to things like former teams and everything, and if there's a chance, my gut says he grooves one to Daniels against Baltimore and tries to get him into the end zone.
Delanie Walker, Titans: Marcus Mariota has to throw it to someone. I say it's Walker, who is a bargain at $3,400.
If you're desperate: Those short Titans defenders don't get a break withAustin Seferian-Jenkins (6-foot-5). He's also $3,400. ... And what a shock, another Packer. Last season, no team allowed more fantasy points to TEs than the Chicago Bears, including 13 receiving touchdowns to TEs, second most in the NFL. Enter Richard Rodgers, who's just $2,500, making him an option in tournament play if you want to punt the position.
[h=2]Tight ends I hate in Week 1[/h]Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, Colts: The Bills allowed just two tight end touchdowns last season and with more weapons for Luck (and in a low-scoring game), trying to predict which one of these guys might luck -- heh heh, I said luck -- into a touchdown isn't a recipe for success. Or even brownies. I could live with that. Everyone likes brownies.
[h=2]Defenses I love in Week 1[/h]Carolina Panthers: Last season, defenses facing the Jaguars scored 201 fantasy points, 24 more than any other team. The team facing the Jaguars scored double-digit fantasy points nine times, most of any team. They've improved, but the Panthers should still be a strong play.
Miami Dolphins: Happiness is facing Kirk Cousins. Nine interceptions in six games last season; his 4.4 percent interception rate was the highest among 36 QBs with at least 200 pass attempts. The Dolphins are just $3,000 on DK.
The price is right
Minnesota Vikings: Last season, Colin Kaepernick ranked 88th of 92 qualified QBs in completion percentage when under pressure. He's now behind a depleted offensive line, so the Vikings should have no trouble bringing the same pressure they did last season, when they were top 10 in sacks. Only $2,800 on DK.
If you're desperate: We discussed this on the podcast, but assuming your buddies just download the podcast and don't actually listen, you'll win a bar bet with this stat: Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were tied for the sixth-most sacks. At home against a Panthers team that gave up 42 sacks last season, has struggled this preseason and doesn't have great receiving options? OK ... $2,700.
[h=2]Defenses I hate in Week 1[/h]Buffalo Bills: They're good, but so is Luck. The Colts allowed sacks on just 4 percent of dropbacks, the third-lowest rate in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers: Remember when they were the 49ers?
And there you have it, folks. Good luck in Week 1 and this entire season. And just remember, even in the darkest hours, when you have the most pressing questions ... I'm always with you.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Insider Trading: Week 1 fantasy advice[/h]ESPN.com staff
ESPN INSIDER


ESPN has planted spies in every NFL locker room -- OK, so they're our 32 NFL Nation team reporters -- in order to provide fantasy owners with inside intel to help you win your league. We call it Insider Trading, a collection of fantasy lineup advice pulled straight from the locker rooms and practice fields of every team.

Here is our NFL Nation reporters' Week 1 fantasy advice.

Arizona Cardinals: If you have the Cardinals’ defense on the bench to start the season, you might want to make a change. Not only is Arizona blitzing more than it did under former defensive coordinator Todd Bowles (who called blitzes a league-high 46.5 percent of the time from 2013-2014) but cornerback Patrick Petersonwill be matched up with Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks, freeing the rest of the secondary to make plays. -- Josh Weinfuss

Atlanta Falcons: Tevin Coleman could be a smart fantasy pick as the season progresses with his big-play ability. However, it might be difficult for the rookie Falcons running back to get going Monday night against a formidable Eagles front seven. Why? Because the Falcons haven’t developed chemistry quite yet along the offensive line with two new starters -- left guard Andy Levitre and center Mike Person -- just named this week. Atlanta runs a new outside zone-blocking scheme that relies on the linemen working in unison. Coleman’s best chance for an explosion might come off a screen when the Eagles send intense pressure at quarterback Matt Ryan. -- Vaughn McClure

Baltimore Ravens: It looks like the second-most targeted receiver in the Baltimore offense will be Kamar Aiken. With first-round pickBreshad Perriman sidelined with a knee injury, Aiken will start alongside Steve Smith. Coaches have praised Aiken's route running and making contested catches. Aiken caught three touchdowns in his last six games last season. -- Jamison Hensley

Buffalo Bills: LeSean McCoy is expected to play Sunday against the Colts but said Wednesday that he's unsure whether he'll be 100 percent for the game. If the Bills limit McCoy's carries, expect Karlos Williamsto get the bulk of the work behind him. Running backs coach Anthony Lynn told me this week that Williams ascended to No. 2 on the depth chart before his undisclosed injury in training camp and that he will "throw him right back in there where he left off." -- Mike Rodak

Carolina Panthers: Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery says quarterback Cam Newton's confidence is "sky high." Although many believe this isn't a good time to start Newton -- with questions about the playmakers around him since the loss of Kelvin Benjamin -- don't forget Newton's final drive of the preseason. He was 4-for-4 passing -- including a 2-yard touchdown toss to fullback Mike Tolbert -- to four different receivers. The cupboard isn't bare, and Newton will be turned loose to run now that the season is here. -- David Newton

Chicago Bears: Be wary of Alshon Jeffery. He has not been ruled out for Week 1, but genuine concerns exist over how effective he can be after missing almost a month with a strained calf muscle. Jeffery is probably a better fantasy play in the second week of the regular season, when he's expected to be healthier. -- Jeff Dickerson

Cincinnati Bengals: Fantasy owners who have Jeremy Hill could be taking a big risk playing him this week. Either Hill will go off against the Raiders on Sunday or he’ll be shut down. There will be little in between. Right guard Kevin Zeitler told me earlier this week that the Bengals will be challenged by the “various assortment of D-linemen” of the Raiders. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth said Oakland has a mix of an all-heavy D-line and an all-athletic line. He said the best way to counter each pairing is to play physically all game. If the Cincinnati offensive linemen don’t do that, Hill’s production could suffer. -- Coley Harvey

Cleveland Browns: Rookie running back Duke Johnson returned from a concussion this week, and coach Mike Pettine said Johnson was either back or not. If he was healthy, he’d be full go, Pettine said. Even with that reality, the matchup is not good. The Jets are built with defense, having seven first-round picks on that side of the ball and $40 million in salary-cap costs in the secondary. Johnson missed a lot of time in preseason. The Browns expect big things from Johnson, but this isn’t the game to take a flier on him. -- Pat McManamon

Dallas Cowboys: Jason Witten has made a living eating up the New York Giants in his career. In 24 games vs. New York, he has 119 catches for 1,264 yards and 11 touchdowns, including an NFL record for a tight end with 18 catches in a game in 2012. When the Giants have been better at safety and linebacker over the years, they haven’t been able to slow Witten. This year, they have plenty of questions at both spots. With the attention they will have to pay to Dez Bryant, Witten should find some room to roam in the middle of the field. -- Todd Archer

Denver Broncos: The last time quarterback Peyton Manning faced the Ravens in the season opener, he threw seven touchdowns. And although he likely won’t repeat that record-setting performance, he will still be a quality play in this one. The Broncos do intend to run the ball more this season than they have in any of Manning’s first three seasons in Denver, but with the construction of this roster and what the Broncos have shown in the preseason, there are plenty of three-wide-receiver sets coming, and Manning will have the opportunity to let it fly. -- Jeff Legwold

Detroit Lions: Ameer Abdullah might be preparing for his first regular-season NFL game, but it sounds as if he is going to receive a lot of work in his debut. Lions offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said that he expects Abdullah to be involved in the run game and that he will also be “used extensively” in the passing game. He’ll rotate with Joique Bell and possiblyTheo Riddick, but Abdullah could be a strong play in the opener for running backs, especially in PPR leagues. He could also end up as Detroit’s kick and punt returner, so he could be an added bonus in return yardage leagues, but that has not been determined yet. -- Michael Rothstein

Green Bay Packers: Receiver James Jones shouldn’t have much trouble reacquainting himself with the Packers’ offense. Coach Mike McCarthy said Jones spent a good chunk of his day off Tuesday at Lambeau Field reviewing the playbook, which has undergone only minor tweaks since Jones last played for the Packers in 2013. McCarthy and Aaron Rodgersbelieve Jones can contribute right away. -- Rob Demovsky

Houston Texans: Quarterback Brian Hoyer said his chemistry with his receivers has steadily improved since he was named the Texans' starting quarterback because of the time he and they have been willing to put into that endeavor. That should be a good thing for receiver DeAndre Hopkins, whom coach Bill O’Brien said the Texans are counting on to have a big year. Hopkins isn’t aiming for a certain number of yards or touchdowns; he's focused on no drops. Of course, if he never drops a ball, the other two stats will follow naturally. -- Tania Ganguli

Indianapolis Colts: Don’t let the Colts saying running back Frank Gore will be on a “pitch count” this season stop you from playing him this weekend. Gore will still get the majority of the carries in the backfield, and he’ll definitely be on the field when they’re in the red zone. Gore’s primary backup, Vick Ballard, is unlikely to play against Buffalo because of a hamstring injury. Gore has 49 rushing touchdowns and eight receiving touchdowns in the red zone in his career. -- Mike Wells

Jacksonville Jaguars: Offensive coordinator Greg Olson said the fact RB T.J. Yeldon played in only one preseason game because of a sprained finger on his left hand -- and had just nine touches in that game -- is not going to affect the way he’s used Sunday. Olson said Jacksonville is comfortable with giving Yeldon a full load against Carolina. With Toby Gerhart dealing with an abdominal strain, Yeldon should also be the Jaguars’ top option near the goal line. -- Mike DiRocco

Kansas City Chiefs: Free-agent wide receivers sometimes struggle with their new teams, at least initially, as they get used to a new quarterback and a new offensive system. But Jeremy Maclin should have no such problems to begin his first season with the Chiefs. Maclin played for Andy Reid for several seasons in Philadelphia. As far as his working relationship with quarterback Alex Smith, Maclin told me this week, "I don’t think I’ve been off to a better start with a particular quarterback." -- Adam Teicher

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins' defense is a strong fantasy play in Week 1. Miami's defensive line, led by Pro Bowlers Ndamukong Suhand Cameron Wake, against the Redskins' offensive line is one of the NFL's biggest mismatches this weekend. Washington allowed 41 quarterback sacks last season. Miami defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle said he feels confident about his group's preparation heading into this game. -- James Walker

Minnesota Vikings: In his first game in more than a year, Adrian Peterson will be back in his role as the team’s featured running back. And even though Peterson is now nearly six months past his 30th birthday, he won’t be on any kind of limit as far as carries go, coach Mike Zimmer told reporters Thursday. Peterson will likely get the bulk of the work, without restriction, on Monday night, which means Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata will have to fight for leftover opportunities. -- Ben Goessling

New Orleans Saints: Mark Ingram becomes even more valuable with C.J. Spiller expected to miss Week 1. Not only should Ingram see a few more carries but he's also a sneaky-good pass-catcher and a solid pass-protector, which should keep him on the field on passing downs. Ingram was rarely used in that role when the Saints had Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. But he caught a career-high 29 passes last year and caught four for 57 yards in the preseason. Ingram said that he expects that to continue this season and that he feels he has earned more trust from Drew Brees in the passing game.-- Mike Triplett

New York Giants: Giants coaches have been pleased in recent weeks with the progress tight end Larry Donnell has made from his springtime Achilles injury. Early in training camp, the team wasn't sure Donnell would be 100 percent by the time the season started. And yes, the Giants are still worried about him as a blocker in the run game. But, especially with slot receiver Victor Cruz out for this game, expect Donnell to be featured heavily in the passing game. The Giants know Dallas is banged up in the middle of its defense with nickel corner Orlando Scandrick and middle linebackerRolando McClain out, and Donnell should be a favored target of Eli Manning in the opener. -- Dan Graziano

New York Jets: RB Chris Ivory told me he did speed training in the offseason and expects to improve his big-play ability. He’ll get a chance to show it Sunday against the Browns, the 32nd-ranked run defense last season. The Jets acknowledge that the Browns bolstered their interior, but they see them vulnerable on the edges. The Jets hope to get Ivory on the perimeter. It could be a big opener for the Jets’ No. 1 back, who also will see time in the goal-line offense. -- Rich Cimini

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders aren’t worried about Latavius Murray’s lack of NFL carry history being a problem. Coaches and teammates point to his great 6-foot-3, 228-pound frame and his rugged style of running. They say Murray doesn’t tire and has the ability to rip off long runs deep in games. -- Bill Williamson

Philadelphia Eagles: Jon Gruden volunteered this bit of insight during a conference call with reporters: The Eagles, he said, “utilize Darren Sproles as a slot receiver. He’s running patterns that you would see Wes Welker, [Julian] Edelman, some of the very good slot receivers run. So obviously, Sproles’ role has expanded.” -- Phil Sheridan

St. Louis Rams: Rams coach Jeff Fisher has already ruled out Todd Gurley (knee) for this week and said Tre Mason will be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury. Even if Mason does play, it's unlikely he'll be ready for a full workload, which means Benny Cunningham will be first in line at running back. Cunningham is a risky play if you're looking for rushing production -- he has just six carries for 13 yards in three games against Seattle, Carolina's Week 1 opponent. But if you are in a PPR league, Cunningham might be good value. He had 12 catches for 103 yards and a touchdown in two games against the Seahawks last year and figures to be on the field in more than just a third-down role this week. -- Nick Wagoner

San Diego Chargers: Although San Diego faces a Detroit defense that held opposing offenses to a league-best 3.1 yards per game in 2014, the Lions lost 54 percent of their snaps played by defensive linemen last year, including Ndamukong Suh. Melvin Gordon should touch the ball early and often, perhaps getting a soft landing here. -- Eric Williams

San Francisco 49ers: There is a growing sense in the 49ers' locker room that a relic from the team’s more successful past will be making a return. And whether that’s by desire or need, the read-option withColin Kaepernick at the helm portends positive results not only for the quarterback but also for his new starting running back. Carlos Hyde averaged 6.0 yards per carry on read-option plays last season, per Pro Football Focus, so he figures to get a lot of carries against the Vikings. -- Paul Gutierrez

Seattle Seahawks: Don’t be surprised if rookie Tyler Lockett plays a significant role on offense. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell admitted Lockett is “light-years ahead” of where the coaches thought he’d be as a receiver. In the preseason, he showed the ability to win outside and in the slot. With guys such as Marshawn Lynch and Jimmy Graham requiring attention from the Rams’ defense, Lockett could have plenty of room to do damage. -- Sheil Kapadia
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With Mike Evans' status uncertain because of a hamstring injury, Vincent Jackson becomes the Buccaneers receiver you want in your starting lineup this week. A coach told me Jackson will take on an ever-bigger role in the game plan than usual because, even if Evans is healthy, he won't be 100 percent. That will make Jackson the favorite target overall, especially in the red zone. -- Pat Yasinskas

Tennessee Titans: Over the past 20 years, defenses run by Dick LeBeau have gone 26-3 against rookie quarterbacks, with 24 touchdowns, 37 interceptions and a .551 completion percentage. Only one rookie QB topped 300 yards passing in those 29 games. If you’re streaming defenses, the Titans are worth serious consideration based on that history. -- Paul Kuharsky

Washington Redskins: The Redskins know they have their hands full with Miami’s defensive front -- and with the addition of Ndamukong Suh, they don’t know how much their scheme will change. That could make it difficult in the run game. But more than one player and coach felt they also have an opportunity to hurt the Dolphins with their perimeter game. That means receiver DeSean Jackson could find himself in favorable positions. Know this: Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins averaged 13.15 yards per attempt with Jackson last season. He missed all summer, but coach Jay Gruden said he’s worried about Jackson’s conditioning, which could limit his snaps a little, but added, “He had a really good day [Thursday], and I feel good where he’s at.” -- John Keim

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1][/h][h=1]Flex ranks: Watching the injuries[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Welcome to the first flex rankings of the 2015 season! It’s about time, right? I mean, the August preseason games told us very little, and it’s time for the real games to begin, starting Thursday with the Pittsburgh Steelers at the New England Patriots. The flex rankings will be a Thursday staple in this blog, as we combine the best of the running backs, wide receivers and tight ends into one tidy list to aid those with difficult decisions for standard formats. Or perhaps they’re not at all difficult. Regardless, this is just one analyst’s opinion, and if you really believe Roddy White is a better play than Alfred Morris, then just go for it. These are your teams, after all. I’ve got my own!
Let’s get right to it. Best of luck to all in Week 1 and beyond!
1. Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: The Bears are an equal-opportunity defense in that they can be run and thrown on. Enjoy.
2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: Welcome back, last year’s top overall pick. Give us 16 games this time.
3. Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals: Surprise! I do think the Raiders improved their defense, but Hill is a star.
4. DeMarco Murray, RB, Eagles: Certainly hasn’t been worked hard the past few months. I see end zone opportunities, pretty much every week.
5. C.J. Anderson, RB, Broncos: Yeah, I heard all the talk about Ronnie Hillman … and you can see how concerned I am.
6. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Mr. Dependable. Please don’t forget to at least get the right Steelers and Patriots active, because they play Thursday.
7. Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs
8. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys
9. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: The Eagles will score points -- and allow them as well.
10. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Minor concern that it’s a blowout loss, but he’s not a traditional running back anyway. He catches passes when the team is trailing too.
11. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Giants
12. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins
13. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos
14. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions
15. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots: This actually is somewhat consistent with my preseason top 100 and where the only top tight end belongs. The drop after Gronk is extensive.
16. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
17. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
18. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: Might be his worst flex rank of the season, but he hasn’t had much success against the Rams the past two seasons.
19. Randall Cobb, WR, Packers: Watch this situation, we might all be overrating him based on health.
20. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Broncos
21. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans
22. LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills: Another situation to watch, because McCoy is dealing with a hamstring issue.
23. Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles: Breakout performer this season has a nice matchup Monday.
24. Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints
25. Justin Forsett, RB, Ravens: I don’t love this rank, in Denver, but the way to handle Peyton Manning is to run the ball and control the clock. We’ll see.
26. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: Steelers can be thrown on and I bet Tom Brady plays really, really well.
27. Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders: Superstar alert.
28. Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins
29. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
30. Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders
31. Carlos Hyde, RB, 49ers
32. Davante Adams, WR, Packers: Packers could opt to use myriad wide receivers in this game and still score 40 points.
33. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Maybe I’ll just never be a true believer. I have ammunition here.
34. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears: Calf injury remains a problem, but we think he will play.
35. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: His issue is a hamstring. If it wasn’t, he’d be ranked better too.
36. Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals
37. Golden Tate, WR, Lions
38. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs: I think he scores a touchdown Sunday. So fitting after Dwayne Bowe -- you don’t see him ranked -- couldn’t score at all last season for K.C.
39. Alfred Blue, RB, Texans: Pretty under-the-radar selection this week. NoArian Foster until probably Week 3.
40. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
41. Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles: Should rule the outside Monday, while Matthews handles the slot. Make sure this guy is owned in your league now.
42. Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars: And own him too. One of the Year 2 breakout guys.
43. Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers: I’m cautious here. But even if he’s like Washington's Morris -- catching few passes -- he should be good.
44. T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jaguars
45. Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins: As always, move him up the ranks in PPR formats.
46. DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins: Not the best matchup for his squad, even at home, but Kirk Cousins is here to save the day!
47. Doug Martin, RB, Buccaneers: I’ll be more than happy to admit I was wrong about Martin if he has a big season. But I don’t expect it.
48. Andre Johnson, WR, Colts: As one can see from my tepid ranking ofAndrew Luck, I don’t love the Colts this week in Buffalo.
49. Chris Ivory, RB, Jets
50. Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills
51. Tevin Coleman, RB, Falcons: Appears to be in line for the start and more touches than his colleagues, but still not a great play.
52. Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets
53. Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers
54. Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings
55. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Browns: Someone has to run the football for this team, and Crowell really should solidify the position.
56. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants: I really doubt Victor Cruz plays, and Dallas will be thrown on.
57. Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys: He’s not atop the depth chart. That might not matter, but it’s best to be cautious with Dallas running backs.
58. Frank Gore, RB, Colts: Tough matchup, and I wonder how many touches he really gets.
59. Mike Wallace, WR, Vikings
60. Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: The problem is we can’t be sure he gets enough rushing attempts to be a strong flex. That’s just a fact.
61. Rashad Jennings, RB, Giants: Well, he’s healthy today, but he’s not likely to catch many passes.
62. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Lions: The top Lions running back on the list!
63. Eric Decker, WR, Jets
64. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers: Yeah, not really a big week for tight ends in the ol’ flex ranks. And it shouldn’t be. How many of you are using a tight end at flex, anyway? I couldn’t find 10 tight ends I really liked this week.
65. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks: New place, new expectations.
66. Torrey Smith, WR, 49ers
67. Steve Smith Sr., WR, Ravens
68. Bishop Sankey, RB, Titans: Willing to give him a chance in his second season, but not sure the options around him -- other than at QB -- are much improved.
69. Joique Bell, RB, Lions
70. John Brown, WR, Cardinals
71. Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals
72. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals: One, two, three Cardinals, and for now, that’s the order I like them in. When Floyd gets healthier, he should be first.
73. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Steelers: No Le’Veon Bell for two weeks, but I can’t say I like Williams all that much. Next week vs. San Francisco should be easier.
74. Markus Wheaton, WR, Steelers: Nice opportunity with Martavis Bryantout, but as with Williams, don’t confuse that with high upside.
75. Tre Mason, RB, Rams
76. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Nice matchup, but not sure how much White has left in the tank.
77. Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots: Presumptive starter for Week 1 withLeGarrette Blount suspended, and as we said with the now-released Jonas Gray, the opportunity is there to make a statement.
78. Shane Vereen, RB, Giants: Move him way up in PPR.
79. Eddie Royal, WR, Bears: Same here.
80. Marques Colston, WR, Saints
81. Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles
82. James Jones, WR, Packers: Yep, he’s back in Green Bay, meaning we no longer have to choose between Ty Montgomery and Jeff Janis; we choose Jones.
83. Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys: Perhaps I’m being too critical of the team’s potential starter, but I’ve relied on McFadden before, and he’s earned that reaction from me -- and many of you.
84. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
85. Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers
86. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
87. Brian Quick, WR, Rams: Someone has to catch the Nick Foles passes. This is not a good week to go with Rams, though.
88. Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears
89. Malcom Floyd, WR, Chargers
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</article>90. Stevie Johnson, WR, Chargers
91. Charles Sims, RB, Buccaneers: Doug Martin insurance.
92. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos: Nice handcuff option if you don’t believe in C.J. Anderson. But I do.
93. Corey Brown, WR, Panthers: Sleeper for this week and the entire season. Eventually, the talent of Devin Funchess should matter more.
94. Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins
95. Karlos Williams, RB, Bills
96. Danny Amendola, WR, Patriots
97. Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks
98. Devonta Freeman, RB, Falcons
99. Duke Johnson Jr., RB, Browns
100. Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys
Others: Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys; Greg Jennings, WR, Dolphins; Benjamin Cunningham, RB, Rams; Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots; Jordan Cameron, TE, Dolphins; Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders; Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers;David Johnson, RB, Cardinals; Andre Williams, RB, Giants; Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Titans; Knile Davis, RB, Chiefs; Reggie Bush, RB, 49ers; James Starks, RB, Packers

 

[HacheMan]

Cowboys still valuable in Week 2 rankings

Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has overcome quite a bit to become a safe, reliable fantasy option over the years, annually top-10 at the position because we judge him solely on regular-season success, and he’ll remain productive sans awesome wide receiver Dez Bryant. We still don’t know for sure how many games Bryant will miss after foot surgery, but those who abandon the Cowboys in fantasy are erring. The Week 2 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles is a strong one, and while nobody will confuse Terrance Williams with Bryant, he and others on this offense remain valuable.

Williams was ultimately disappointing last season, as he started quickly with touchdowns in five of the first seven games, but then saw fewer targets and was less productive. I ranked him this week as more flex option than starter, but he needs to be owned in leagues at this point. Just don’t go too far with the love; Williams is not likely to be a high-volume target. I think that will be Cole Beasley, and if you’re in a point-per-reception format, he’s the one I see running all over the field and perhaps flirting with double-digit catches. Philly has a new secondary and the Falcons abused it Monday night. Bryant is the rare receiver who just can’t be covered. The Cowboys don’t have that, but Romo will be protected and he will find new options.

Look for the Cowboys to establish Joseph Randle a bit more this week. Atlanta Falcons rookie Tevin Coleman made his debut against the Eagles in Week 1 and was effective enough, totaling 80 rushing yards, and fared better in the second half. Randle is more dynamic and boasts a better offensive line. Plus, whileLance Dunbar saw more targets out of the backfield, Randle didn’t come out on all third downs. He was a factor in the passing game. I liked what I saw from him. The Bryant injury doesn’t necessarily help him or anyone other than Williams/Beasley, but Randle doesn’t lose value here.

The overriding point is that Romo, who I have seen dropped in too many leagues, is still going to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback. This week I initially have him ranked eighth, which is three spots worse than several of my colleagues. That’s not reflective of how I view Romo; I just like Atlanta’s Matt Ryan against the New York Giants better and same with Pittsburgh Steelers starBen Roethlisberger against the San Francisco 49ers. It’s all similar. I ranked Randle the best of the ESPN crew, a relatively safe RB2, and while we all seem to like Williams, I gave Beasley a WR4 grade. I really think he’ll be busy. Don’t go dropping safe, proven wide receivers who were quiet in Week 1 like Sammy Watkins or Allen Robinson, but consider Beasley in PPR formats.

Quarterbacks: There’s more variety than normal among the top 10 at this position, and since I cannot speak for others, I’ll just say I think Ryan and Roethlisberger have good matchups and elite weapons that cannot be stopped. Plus, who would own Ryan and Peyton Manning, anyway? Trade one of them. … But yes, I’m not recommending Manning so much against the Kansas City Chiefs. I want to see him play well, use his weapons and make red zone throws before feeling confident. That written, we view him as a top-10 QB. … This week’s Chicago Bears opponent is the Arizona Cardinals, thus Carson Palmermakes the top 10 -- and over Manning. Last week the relative surprise, at least according to feedback I saw, was Sam Bradford over Andrew Luck. It didn’t quite work out because of Bradford’s interceptions, but Luck was not top-10. That was the point. Neither Manning is a lock this week for such production. … Later on, be careful on Tennessee Titans rookie Marcus Mariota. We were all cautious, with Teddy Bridgewater and Joe Flacco edging him out. That’s telling.

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</article>Running back: I love the fact that four different running backs are featured in the top spot among the five of us. I chose Seattle Seahawks talker Marshawn Lynch against Green Bay, but I can be dissuaded out of that. This is not the week to spend a lot on running backs in DFS. Lots of similar options here. … I was curious why the Bears’ Matt Forte was top choice for two rankers. Perhaps we’re all overrating the Arizona defense some. … I’m highest on the 49ers’ Carlos Hyde, and perhaps too much so, but I don’t see the Steelers putting up a great fight against running backs or wide receivers. … I’m not trading Denver’s C.J. Anderson for 50 cents on the dollar, but I did move him out of my top 10 for Thursday. He’s clearly not 100 percent and I think Ronnie Hillman is definitely in play. … Perhaps Indy’s Frank Gore gets a ton of touches this week, but I see more trouble for this offense against the New York Jets. I’d much rather go withDetroit Lions rookie Ameer Abdullah. … I’m no fan of the Titans’ Bishop Sankeyand thought that was clear from my ranking of him, but others apparently are even less hopeful. Don’t blindly assume he’s worth starting.

Wide receiver: The Seattle Seahawks were relatively shredded by Nick Foles, so why would Aaron Rodgers have trouble? We all rank Rodgers fine, but there seems to be some trepidation about his wide receivers Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and James Jones. I wouldn’t go out of my way to use Adams and Jones, but I think Rodgers has a big day. … Not only is New Orleans Saints sophomoreBrandin Cooks seemingly a lock against the brutal Tampa Bay defense, but I likeBrandon Coleman as well. Coleman is a nice, available sleeper you can plug in this week if you lost Bryant or DeSean Jackson. Marques Colston has the same nice matchup, but Coleman boasts far more upside and he played more in Week 1. … Don’t give up on Philly’s Nelson Agholor, among other quiet, young receivers from the first week. The Eagles will alter the game plan every week. Some weeks it will be Jordan Matthews, others Agholor. Some weeks they’ll run. … Final chance to buy low on Buffalo’s Watkins. I know, the Bills want to run. Every team wants to. Watkins will be heard from. … With the Cardinals visiting the Bears, I like John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald more than usual. Can’t say the same about Michael Floyd.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 2: Stevie Johnson, Dion Lewis lead the way[/h]Field Yates, ESPN Insider

Hey, this is new!
Effective as of, well, right now, I'll be penning our weekly ESPN Fantasy waiver wire adds column. This is your home for all the names you need to know who have springboarded onto the fantasy radar and with what level of urgency you need to act in order to acquire them.
Here's the deal: I'll lead the column with a section of players who qualify as the top pickups for the week, for those in leagues of up to 12 teams, and I'll follow that with deeper-league adds that pique my interest. Some of the players in the deeper-league section could be worthy of consideration in leagues as small as 12 teams, depending on the roster structure, but are certainly viable in leagues larger than 12 teams. The players in each section will be listed in the order I would prioritize them in making waiver claims or in using your free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB).
[h=2]Top pickups[/h]Stevie Johnson, WR, San Diego Chargers (owned in 29.7 percent of ESPN leagues): In theory, a top-two wide receiver in a passing offense led by an excellent quarterback should almost always have value. Johnson, who wound up in San Diego after a nondescript stay in San Francisco, reminded us why he has been a 1,000-yard receiver in this league before. He totaled six catches, 82 yards and a touchdown against Detroit in Week 1. He's not only a player who should be added in all leagues, he'll be a top-30 or so wide receiver for Week 2.
Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots (17.3 percent): The door was wide-open for someone to take on a Shane Vereen-type role (a pass-catching back) in New England this season, and with LeGarrette Blount out due to suspension, Lewis shined in the team's Week 1 win. He had 19 total touches for 120 yards, including 15 rushes for 59 yards. Lewis won't be a primary goal-line option with Blount back (Brandon Bolden got some of those duties in Week 1), but he's in line for a significant role in a high-octane offense.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (31.0 percent): There was a point this offseason when it seemed as though Moncrief -- a very good talent -- would be buried on the Colts' depth chart behind three other wideouts. Things have changed quickly, as T.Y. Hilton suffered a knee bruise that could cost him some time and, frankly, Andre Johnson has me a bit worried after looking nonexplosive in his Indy debut. Moncrief registered 11 targets against Buffalo in Week 1 and is the presumptive starter opposite of Johnson until Hilton returns.


Terrance Williams, WR, Dallas Cowboys (44.6 percent):Williams has big-time talent and withDez Bryant out 4-8 weeks with a broken foot, Williams looks ready to step into the lead wideout role for Dallas. Will he be Bryant-esque? No, of course not. But the No. 1 wide receiver in an offense with an excellent quarterback is fantasy-relevant. Williams saw eight targets in Week 1; he should be guaranteed a similar workload for as long as Bryant is out.
James Jones, WR, Green Bay Packers (30.7%): For a player who was cut by both the Raiders and Giants (two teams that could use the wide receiver help), Jones looked pretty good on Sunday in his return to the Packers. He had four catches, two of which were touchdowns, and had another end zone trip called back because of penalty. He's unquestionably at his best in Green Bay, and even if he remains the third passing option behind Randall Cobb and Davante Adams (who led the team with eight targets), Jones has fantasy value. He's one injury to either player away from being a top-25 wide receiver.
Carson Palmer, QB, Arizona Cardinals (48.0 percent): Since the start of last season, Palmer has started seven games, throwing for 1,933 yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. He got off to a blistering start in Week 1, sailing north of 300 passing yards and throwing three more touchdowns. Larry Fitzgerald looked refreshed, John Brown is a budding star and tight end Darren Fells picked up where he left off from the preseason (four catches, 82 yards, one TD). Palmer can be an every-week starter.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, Denver Broncos (46.7 percent): Hillman saw an identical number of carries (12) to C.J. Anderson in the Broncos' Week 1 win, something that already had fantasy owners intrigued. The offense really struggled in Week 1, but owning a running back who has more value than strictly a handcuff in an offense that we know still has a high ceiling is worth it. Add Hillman.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans (35.7 percent): What an historic debut for the reigning Heisman Trophy winner. He tied the NFL record for most touchdown passes by a rookie in his NFL debut with four. Meanwhile, he had just three incompletions. Everyone -- present company included -- suspected that Mariota's chances for fantasy stardom would be tied to rushing yards. Well, he had just two carries for 6 yards Sunday. It didn't matter. He won't face nearly as poor of a defense as Tampa Bay's each week and the hand injury to tight endDelanie Walker bears monitoring, but Mariota hasn't even scraped the surface of his potential. We often think of bench stashes as running backs or receivers (positions at which you play multiple players each game), but it's OK to use Week 1 as a launching point in investing in Mariota stock.
Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati, Bengals (43.0 percent): Eifert's talent is unquestioned -- there's a reason he was a first-round pick back in 2013 -- but now healthy, he showed exactly what the Bengals hoped for when they selected him. He can win in the middle of the field with his size, length and soft hands. He had nine catches, 104 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets against the Raiders.

[h=2]Deeper-league options[/h]
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills(12.1 percent): I came this close to throwing Taylor in the first section, but I gave Mariota the edge among the upside quarterbacks to stash for now. Make no mistake, Taylor was sensational in Week 1 and is a starter in two-quarterback leagues.
Chris Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (11.2 percent): WithAndre Ellington banged up in Week 1, Johnson, who was signed late in training camp, is primed to be a starting back, at least based on how coach Bruce Arians forecasted his role Sunday (tabbing him as the "lead dog" if Ellington misses time). I'm not particularly optimistic that Johnson has a ton of upside (he managed 37 yards on 10 carries in Week 1), but the role is good enough to add him, even if you want to wait a week and let him prove he deserves a spot in your lineup as early as Week 3.
David Johnson , RB, Arizona Cardinals (37.1 percent): He played just five offensive snaps in his debut, but his lone touch was a 55-yard receiving touchdown. If you're adding a Cardinals back who you don't need right away, he's the guy.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks (19.9 percent): Lockett has quickly displayed his tantalizing combination of speed and quickness, as he has four touchdowns of 50 yards or more, including the preseason. He caught all four passes thrown his way in Week 1, but for just 34 yards. He's a bench player for now with upside.
Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints (16.8 percent): After being tabbed as the MVP of Saints training camp, Coleman logged four catches and a Week 1 touchdown. He has a Marques Colston-like build and may already be close to leapfrogging Colston as the second-most critical wide receiver on the Saints roster. I like this guy.
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington (32.0 percent): He saw north of one-third of the throws from Kirk Cousins in Week 1. He has always been a gifted run-after-catch player, but health has limited him in the past. He can be started at tight end for as long as he's healthy.
Percy Harvin, WR, Buffalo Bills (44.8 percent): Remember this guy? The former Vikings star had five catches on as many targets in Week 1, including a deep score. He's an intriguing deeper-league add, because he's still an exceptional athlete.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24.1 percent):For fantasy purposes, it's no matter whether you score in garbage time or crunch time. ASJ feasted late in Week 1, finishing with two touchdown. He's a viable tight end option.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, Carolina Panthers (0.7 percent): Cam Newtonhas to throw it to somebody, right? Cotchery found the end zone in Week 1 and is the steadiest of the Panthers' wideouts.
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</article>Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills (7.1 percent): Two primary takeaways from Week 1 regarding Williams: He's the handcuff to LeSean McCoy in a run-heavy offense and he's a talented dude. His 26-yard touchdown run was one of the best of the weekend. He should be on the radar of all McCoy owners.
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers (6.7 percent): For three more weeks -- after which Antonio Gates returns -- Green will be the starting tight end in a capable passing offense. He found the end zone in Week 1.
Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets (1.3 percent): Looking for a back to stash in deeper leagues? Powell makes sense. He's a no-glamour back, but he saw 14 touches in a ground-based offense Sunday. Chris Ivory starred Sunday, but Powell is next up on the depth chart.
Rashad Greene, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (0.2 percent): The fifth-round rookie out of Florida State saw 13 targets in Week 1. His final production was pedestrian (seven catches, 28 yards, TD), but he's a deep, deep-league stash.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Fantasy 32: The Week 2 tips you need to know[/h]Mike Clay, Fantasy Football
ESPN INSIDER

Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
1. In the preseason version of this article, we told you to add Dion Lewis, as indications were fairly clear that he was the team's replacement for Shane Vereen. That proved true (and then some) in Week 1 against Pittsburgh. Lewis was on the field for 46 of the team's 61 offensive plays, which helped him to 120 yards on 19 touches. As impressive as Lewis looked,<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> keep in mind thatLeGarrette Blount is New England's clear lead back and will be featured in short-yardage and early-down situations. Lewis' fantasy appeal will be matchup dependent, but if you did manage to scoop him up, the good news is that he figures to play a massive role against Buffalo in Week 2. Like Vereen over the past several seasons, Lewis should be viewed as a borderline RB2 option in PPR.</offer>
2. Speaking of that preseason article, we also told you to invest heavily in Carlos Hyde this season.. Through one week of play, Hyde is your top fantasy running back. The lead back in San Francisco's run-heavy attack, Hyde put up 182 scrimmage yards and two scores on 28 touches against Minnesota. The results won't be quite as good against better defenses and when San Francisco isn't ahead by double digits throughout the second half, but Hyde picked up where he left off in 2014, eluding tacklers and making plays after contact. He's a borderline RB1 option moving forward.
3. Davante Adams didn't find the end zone, but he was on the field for all 33 of the Green Bay Packers' pass plays, which matched James Jones and was one ahead of Randall Cobb. Adams paced Green Bay in both targets and receiving yards in Week 1. Although Adams will surely play second fiddle to a fully-healthy Cobb, the second-year wide receiver remains on the WR3 radar. Green Bay had a third wide receiver on the field for 100 percent of its Week 1 pass plays.


4. Despite a ton of talk about Chris Ivory's newfound receiving skills, the veteran was limited to a two-down role in Week 1 against Cleveland. Ivory was impressive on 20 carries and actually led the league with four carries inside the opponent's 1-yard line, but he ran only 10 pass routes in the game. Bilal Powell played 28 snaps, trailing Ivory by only five in the category. Powell ran 11 routes and was targeted three times in what was a very run-heavy affair. Powell is this team's passing-down back, which will limit Ivory to RB2 numbers in all formats.
5. The Indianapolis Colts have a ton of offensive weapons, so Week 1 usage data is a big help in learning how to plan on spreading around the rock. Andre Johnson paced the team by running 51 of a possible 59 pass routes in the game. Donte Moncrief ran 45 routes and becomes a must-add on waivers after the short-term injury to T.Y. Hilton, who was limited to 37 routes. First-round pickPhillip Dorsett ran only 15 routes, but he will be the team's No. 3 wideout as long as Hilton is on the shelf. Johnson and Moncrief should be in starting lineups as long as Hilton is out.
6. One of the biggest fantasy storylines off the offseason centered on how theDallas Cowboys would replace DeMarco Murray. We got our first look Sunday night. Lance Dunbar paced the Dallas backfield by working 32 snaps, 31 of which were pass plays. Joseph Randle started and carried the ball on 16 of his 28 snaps. Darren McFadden was limited to 10 snaps, but remains worthy of a bench spot in 12-team leagues. Randle, meanwhile, has clear control of early downs and is in the RB2 mix against Philadelphia this week. Especially with Dez Bryanton the shelf for a month or so, Dunbar is going to be very busy as a target out of the backfield. He's on the flex radar in PPR.
7. Sammy Watkins ran a route on all 23 of the Buffalo Bills' pass plays, but much to his owners' chagrin, Vontae Davis shadowed him on each of those routes. Davis is one of the league's top cover corners, which led to Tyrod Taylor all but ignoring Watkins throughout the game. Watkins failed to catch a pass on two targets. This will continue to be a run-heavy, low-scoring offense, but that was already baked into Watkins' sixth-round ADP. The second-year player remains in the WR3 conversation, as the matchups will be easier going forward. This week, he figures to see shadow coverage from Malcolm Butler, who was torched by Antonio Brown in Week 1.
8. This won't be a surprise if you followed first-team usage during the preseason, but Brandon Coleman -- not Marques Colston -- is the New Orleans Saints' No. 2 wide receiver. Coleman ran 42 of 52 possible routes, compared to 35 routes for Colston, in the season opener. This follows the same trend we saw during the preseason. Coleman caught four of his seven targets for 41 yards and a touchdown in the game. As a near every-down player with Drew Brees under center, the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Coleman is a must-own and will certainly be on the WR3 radar going forward. He's an ideal DFS target in a Week 2 home affair against Tampa Bay.


9. Andre Ellington is expected to miss 2-3 weeks with a Grade 1 PCL sprain, which puts veteran Chris Johnson and rookie David Johnson squarely in the fantasy starting lineup discussion. Chris Johnson carried the ball on 10 of his 18 snaps in Week 1 and clearly has a leg up for the starting gig. David Johnson ran a route on all five of his snaps, and showed his tremendous upside with a 55-yard touchdown. The former is a worthwhile RB2 target against Chicago and the latter can be considered for your flex spot in PPR leagues.
10. It was a quiet start to Nelson Agholor's career, but there are plenty of reasons for optimism about his 2015 prospects. The rookie was on the field for 44 of the team's 54 pass plays, which trailed only Jordan Matthews (47) among Eagles receivers. Agholor managed only two targets, but faced standout cover cornerDesmond Trufant on all but one of his routes. Agholor figures to see plenty ofBrandon Carr in Week 2. Carr struggled most of last season, but fared well against Odell Beckham Jr. and Rueben Randle last week.
11. Entering his second season, Cody Latimer was expected to give the Denver Broncos an intimidating one-two-three punch at the wide receiver position this season. Instead, he's buried fifth on the depth chart. Emmanuel Sanders ran a route on 43 of Denver's 45 pass plays against Baltimore, Demaryius Thomas ran 40 routes and new slot man Jordan Norwood handled 35. Latimer (three) was also behind journeyman Andre Caldwell (seven). Latimer's long-term prospects remain intriguing but he's not worth stashing except in leagues with deep benches. Norwood, meanwhile, should be on your radar in PPR leagues.
12. Chosen in the top five picks of most fantasy drafts this year, Adrian Peterson's 2015 debut was certainly a disappointment. Don't panic. Playing from behind most of the night, the Vikings managed only 15 run plays. Peterson handled two-thirds of those carries and added three receptions. In what was nearly a worst-case scenario, Peterson still managed 52 scrimmage yards. Expect better results at home against Detroit and San Diego over the next two weeks.
13. As expected, Amari Cooper (39 routes) and Michael Crabtree (37) worked as the Oakland Raiders' top wide receivers in Week 1. One of the bigger surprises of Week 1 came just behind them on the depth chart. Seth Roberts, an undrafted free agent last year, ran 33 routes and was the club's clear No. 3 wideout. Meanwhile, Rod Streater ran nine routes and Andre Holmes handled seven. Standing 6-2 with 4.44 40-yard dash wheels and having paced the AFC with 243 receiving yards during the preseason, Roberts is a name to monitor, but nothing more. He struggled badly in his debut, turning six targets into 12 yards and a pair of drops.


14. Bishop Sankey scored twice in Week 1, but his usage suggests now is the time to sell. In a blowout win against Tampa Bay, Sankey was on the field for only 23 of a possible 59 snaps. Newcomer Terrance West was heavily involved, working 23 snaps. Primary passing-down back Dexter McCluster was in on 14 snaps, but will play a much bigger role in more competitive games. Sankey (6.2 yards per carry) was significantly more productive than West (3.2 YPC), but this backfield continues to have full-blown committee written all over it.
15. Having averaged 5.9 yards per carry on 20 preseason totes before putting up 52 yards on 11 Week 1 carries, Doug Martin looks better than he has in years. Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense isn't giving him much of an opportunity for success. Playing from well behind during all of Sunday's season opener, Martin was limited to 29 snaps. Passing-down specialist Charles Sims, meanwhile, ran a route on 21 of his 32 snaps. Tampa Bay is going to struggle this season, which is going to limit Martin's second-half snap count. He remains a borderline RB2.
16. Jarvis Landry played a position-high 54 snaps against Washington on Sunday, which is no surprise; Rishard Matthews finishing second on the team in the category is. Matthews played 45 snaps, while Greg Jennings handled 39,Kenny Stills 23 and rookie DeVante Parker one. Nothing more than a situational player, Stills isn't worth a roster spot right now, especially with Parker looming. It's only a matter of time until Matthews is demoted, but he'll be a sneaky DFS play in the meantime.
17. There was a lot of preseason chatter about third-round pick Matt Jonesstealing snaps from Alfred Morris, but Week 1 proved that was misguided. Morris worked 48 snaps and ran the ball 25 times against Miami. Scat backChris Thompson ran a route on 12 of his 21 snaps. Jones managed only 10 snaps, carrying the ball seven times. Jones remains an intriguing prospect and the clear handcuff to Morris, but Thompson will continue to be heavily involved on passing downs.
18. Our preseason examination of first-team personnel usage told us to expect a committee attack from the New York Giants backfield this season. That proved true in Week 1 as Shane Vereen paced the unit with 26 snaps. The team's primary passing down back ran a route on 22 of those plays. Rashad Jennings, meanwhile, ran the ball on 13 of his 21 snaps, while Andre Williams racked up six carries on 14 snaps. At home against Atlanta this week, Jennings will be an under-the-radar DFS option.
19. Through one week of play, there's little doubt who the lead back is in Atlanta this season. Rookie Tevin Coleman was on the field for 45 of the team's 77 offensive plays and handled 20 of the team's 30 carries by running backs.Devonta Freeman, meanwhile, managed 18 yards on 10 carries, but did rack up four targets. Expect this trend to continue. From the outset, it made perfect sense that Coleman would be the club's early-down back, while Freeman would chip in a few carries and handle a hefty chunk of passing-down work. Coleman is on the RB2 radar and should be in lineups against the Giants this week.


20. Despite none of them playing at full health, Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal andMarquess Wilson were extremely busy against Green Bay in Week 1. Wilson ran a team-high 38 routes, while Jeffery and Royal each ran 37 of a possible 43. The trio was fairly quiet, combining for eight receptions on the afternoon. If you're a Jeffery or Royal owner, it's no time to panic. Jeffery paced the league with four end zone targets and Royal saw one of his own. Both will continue to be heavily targeted in an offense that figures to be trailing in the second half quite often. Jeffery remains a back-end WR1 and Royal a borderline WR3.
21. Tyler Lockett ran 42 of a possible 55 pass routes in his NFL debut; Doug Baldwin ran 52 and Jermaine Kearse 51. Lockett caught all four of his targets for 34 yards and added a return touchdown. The rookie remains worthy of a bench spot, but keep in mind that this is his ceiling in terms of his playing time as long as he's the No. 3 wide receiver. Trailing throughout the game in St. Louis, theSeattle Seahawks were forced to call 53 pass plays. They averaged 33 per game in 2014.
22. With Kelvin Benjamin on injured reserve, it was Philly Brown who led theCarolina Panthers' wide receiver unit in snaps (53) and pass routes (32) in Week 1. Ted Ginn Jr. (25 routes) and Jerricho Cotchery (21) also were very involved. Intriguing rookie Devin Funchess played 27 snaps, but was primarily used as a run-blocker. He ran only 12 routes. None of these players are currently worth starting, but Funchess should be on benches. He'll be in the WR3 mix once he inevitably emerges into an every-down player.
23. Week 1 proved that any chatter about T.J. Yeldon being limited out of the gate was erroneous. The rookie was on the field for 44 for the team's 67 snaps, handling a dozen carries and running 25 pass routes. Clear backup Denard Robinson played 14 snaps, while Bernard Pierce (eight) and Corey Grant (two) barely saw the field. The Jacksonville Jaguars offense showed no signs of improvement from 2014 in Week 1, which is a concern, but Yeldon is good enough and will see enough volume to produce RB2 numbers.
24. Following the team's trade of Terrance West to the Tennessee Titans, it became apparent that Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson would dominate the team's backfield touches. That proved accurate in Week 1 as the duo combined to play 66 of the team's 71 offensive snaps. Crowell carried the ball on 13 of his 35 snaps. Johnson was the primary pass-blocker of the two and managed only seven carries on 31 snaps. Despite a poor outing against a tough Jets defense, Crowell remains on the RB2 radar and Johnson will soon be on the RB2 mix in PPR.
25. Starting in place of Le'Veon Bell and with little competition for reps,DeAngelo Williams was on the field for a hefty 62 of the Pittsburgh Steelers' 73 snaps in Week 1. The veteran performed exceptionally well, racking up 127 yards on 21 carries, while forcing a league-high eight missed tackles. Fresh after 10 days off, expect more of the same at home against San Francisco this week. The 49ers have to travel across the country on a short week, which rarely bodes well for a team's effectiveness. Once Bell returns, Williams figures to steal a few reps here and there, but Bell will surely remain the feature back.
26. Tavon Austin was on the field for all but three of the St. Louis Rams' offensive plays and scored twice against the Seahawks. This is the time to sell high. Austin scored a grand total of three touchdowns last season and surprise Week 1 deactivation Brian Quick figures to return to the starting lineup sooner rather than later. The Rams -- who, at 42 percent, ranked next to last in three wide receiver sets on passing plays in Week 1 -- will lean heavily on their defense and running game this season. Austin remains well off the flex radar.
27. The Detroit Lions offense managed only 47 snaps against San Diego in Week 1. That number is sure to regress to the mean in the coming weeks, which is good news for its skill position players -- and that includes Eric Ebron. The second-year tight end ran 21 of a possible 31 routes in the opener. He caught four of his five targets and also found the end zone. The former first-round pick is expected to trail only Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate on the Lions' target totem pole this season, and he'll certainly be busy near the goal line. Ebron is a borderline TE1 play against Minnesota this week.
28. With his team playing from behind for a majority of the day, Danny Woodhead was on the field for a position-high 43 snaps in Week 1. The 15th overall pick back in April, Melvin Gordon, worked 35 snaps and paced the team with 14 carries. Branden Oliver was mixed in and played five snaps. Although the much bigger Gordon figures to be San Diego's primary goal-line/short-yardage back, Woodhead handled all six of the team's red zone carries in Week 1, which helped him to a pair of touchdowns. It's going to take a bit of game script projection to predict the weekly outlooks of Woodhead and Gordon, but both are certainly in the starting lineup conversation. Expect plenty of Woodhead in a tough Week 2 matchup at Cincinnati.
29. After Mohamed Sanu paced the NFL in drops last season, it should come as somewhat of a surprise that he ran more pass routes than Marvin Jones (30 to 27) in Week 1. Of course, Jones was limited in the preseason after missing the entire 2014 season because of injury. Jones saw one more target than Sanu and figures to eventually emerge into the team's No. 2 wide receiver, but both players will be limited by the team's run-heavy, spread-it-around scheme. Jones is barely worth bench consideration.
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</article>30. The Baltimore Ravens offense struggled badly in Week 1, but at least we now have a good idea how they plan on replacing injured Breshad Perriman. Steve Smith was, unsurprisingly, in the game for all 32 of the team's pass plays. Kamar Aiken replaced Perriman in the starting lineup and ran 27 routes. Marlon Brownhandled 22 and slot man Michael Campanaro mixed in with nine. The four wide receivers combined for 12 targets, six receptions, 45 yards and no touchdowns. The message here is clear: Keep Perriman stashed on your bench.
31. Albert Wilson ran 33 of 39 possible pass routes, trailing only Jeremy Maclin(37) in the category against Houston. Third-round pick Chris Conley played only four snaps in the game and all were in relief of Maclin. Wilson appears to have a lock on the team's No. 2 wide receiver job, but he'll remain fourth in line for targets behind Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles. Wilson is only worth a look in deep leagues.
32. Passing-down specialist Jonathan Grimes paced the Houston Texansrunning backs with 41 snaps played in Week 1. Alfred Blue worked 22 snaps andChris Polk handled 14. Blue remains the team's short-term lead back, particularly on early downs, but the team was in comeback mode most of the day. Grimes played the final 19 snaps of the game. Life won't be much easier against Carolina in Week 2 and workhorse Arian Foster is due back in a week or two. It's a situation to avoid in the meantime.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Key Week 1 metrics reveal concerns for Peyton Manning[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider
ESPN INSIDER

One of the major takeaways from the first slate of Sunday games in the 2015 season is that youth trumped age. With that thought in mind, this week's Big Number article will begin by taking a look at an older quarterback whose fantasy football woes may be far from over.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Big Number: 13.5[/h]That is the number of fantasy points Peyton Manning has averaged in his past 10 games. ESPN Stats & Information notes that this is not a good trend for a 39-year old quarterback, as only three of the 12 passers in NFL history with at least 200 attempts in their age 39-or-older seasons averaged more than 12 fantasy points per game. Another negative trend is Manning's 52.6 Total QBR mark during those past 10 games. That is the worst total he has posted in this category in a 10-game span since ESPN began tracking Total QBR in 2006.
The game tape showed just as many concerns. Manning was inaccurate on numerous throws, including multiple aerials where he missed open receivers. He also continued his struggles in the bad decision rate (BDR) area that measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. This had long been an area of strength, but last season Manning ranked last in the league in bad decisions at the medium route depth level (aerials thrown 11-19 yards). His 2.5 percent overall BDR in this contest was higher than his 1.6 percent mark last season and says he could be on his way to another subpar performance in this category.
Making matters even worse is how badly the Broncos' offensive line played in this contest. Manning was sacked four times and hit on five other occasions, giving him a total of nine contact plays. That tied for fourth-highest among quarterbacks this weekend and is not a pace that the Broncos want to see repeated very often this season.
These woes affected more than just Manning, as Demaryius Thomas andEmmanuel Sanders both ended up tallying only six points in ESPN standard scoring leagues. This could be an especially troubling issue for Thomas, as he is due to face a red-rated cornerback (red indicating a difficult matchup) in five of the Broncos' next eight games.
It's never a good idea to sell low, but when taking all of these negative factors into account, it would be sensible for any fantasy owner with Manning, Thomas or Sanders on a roster to strongly consider any reasonable trade offers. The potential trade price for any member of this trio could keep dropping the longer one waits.

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[h=2]Big Number: 95.7[/h]That is Marcus Mariota's Total QBR mark, which is the second highest for any quarterback in his first career start in the past 10 seasons. The Elias Sports Bureau notes that Mariota is the only rookie in NFL history to throw four touchdown passes in a single half.
The primary takeaway from this in fantasy football is that Mariota could be on his way to QB1 status, especially considering he posted 24 fantasy points despite not playing in the fourth quarter and rushing for a mere 6 yards.
The news wasn't entirely positive for Titans players, however. Tennessee's blocking wall gave its ball carriers good blocking on only 36.7 percent of planned rushing attempts (good blocking being very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Titans ball carriers gained only 6.8 yards on those good blocking plays, which is significantly below the league average of 8.3. and therefore suggests Tennessee's run blocking still has plenty of room for improvement.
A grain of salt should also be taken when weighing Kendall Wright's future fantasy football value. Eleven of Wright's 16 fantasy points came via a 52-yard first quarter touchdown pass that happened in large part due to a Tampa Bay linebacker overreacting to a Mariota play-action fake. That type of thing may happen now and again, but it is not a good idea to expect it to occur on a frequent basis against defenses that are better than Tampa Bay's.
Speaking of that platoon, the Buccaneers' Week 1 woes could be a favorable omen for Saints players in Week 2 and Texans players in Week 3.


[h=2]Big Number: 112[/h]That is the number of targets New Orleans Saints rookie wide receiver Brandon Coleman will post this season if he continues his Week 1 target pace for the rest of the way. Coleman's seven targets were equal to Marques Colston's total and only one behind what Brandin Cooks posted (8).
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</article>Coleman turned one of those receptions into a touchdown and scored 10 fantasy points. Since he is owned in only 16.8 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues, this would normally move him very high up the waiver wire wide receiver option lists. That may not happen this week, as the performances racked up by James Jones (17 fantasy points, 30.5 percent ownership rate), Stevie Johnson (14 points, 29.2 percent), and Percy Harvin (13 points, 44.6 percent) will likely put Coleman further down that list. Savvy fantasy owners with waiver order numbers not at the top of their league's list should aim to take advantage of this rare backlog of quality WR options and try to land Coleman.

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[h=2]Big Number: 51.9 percent[/h]This is the good blocking rate (GBR) posted by the Pittsburgh Steelers' blocking wall on planned rushing plays in Week 1. To get some perspective on how impressive this number is, consider that Miami led the league last season with a 44.6 percent GBR.
That Pittsburgh was able to do this with a line anchored by a backup center says something for just how much talent this group has. DeAngelo Williams owners may be considering dropping him after Le'Veon Bell returns to the lineup in Week 3, but when a running back is playing behind a line of this caliber, he is worth saving a roster spot for.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Love/Hate for Week 2: Back to the basics[/h]Matthew Berry, Fantasy

They hated it.Haaaaaaated it.
I mean with a passion I had never seen before.
HATED. IT.
The "it" in question was last week's column and the "they" I am referring to are my former readers, all of whom assured me they would never read me again. So there are fewer of us this week, but somehow we will have to muddle through.
I have to admit, I was really bummed. And surprised. I've been doing this for a long time. I've been writing a weekly version of "Love/Hate" at various places on the Internet since 1999. The dance is always the same.
I write the column and it's published on a Thursday. It is usually very well received. Some more than others and there are always some bitter types who like to read me every week just to get angry, but for the most part I get really nice notes, tweets, emails and comments on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Some like the intro, some like the advice, some like both; whatever. They're all lovely and they mean a lot.
Once the games are underway on Sunday, people start getting angry about advice that went wrong or something and the negativity starts. Then, by Tuesday and Wednesday people have calmed down and are back asking for advice on trade offers, pickups and whom to start. That's not everyone, of course. Many folks are very rationale throughout the week and I'm speaking in generalities here, but for 16 years now, that's the dance I do with my audience.
Until last Thursday, when I received this tweet: "@MatthewBerryTMR die in a fire you spineless shill."
I have so many questions about this tweet. So oddly angry, yet very specific. Like, is it OK if I die in another way? Does it have to be a fire? Is the fire more important or the death? Like, would he rather I die by whatever means necessary or maybe just get caught in a fire and whatever damage happens, happens. Ideally death, of course, but would first-degree burns work? And where does the spineless part come in?
Shill. Sellout. Those were the polite ones. So many complaints and anger at last week's column before any of the advice hadn't worked out (and frankly, if you just look at the names, I actually had a pretty good week, especially considering it was the first week, always the toughest to predict).
I was so taken aback. I spent a long time on the column, took a lot of time to find all those photos, which I thought people would really enjoy. The advice was more or less the same as I would give any week, except I added prices for the players in daily from DraftKings and a line or two about how those players worked in daily.
So I was surprised by people not liking that; I was surprised by how much they didn't like the daily slant toward some of the analysis. And frankly, I was mostly shocked by the whole "sellout" thing.


Speaking as man who once accepted a large check to co-write "Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles," a movie script for a third sequel, 16 years after the first one, I assure you: I know exactly what a sellout is. I've done it, and in a big way.
And I hated it. I've discussed that project a lot in various places, including this column and my book, so no need to get back into it here, except to say the feeling I had during and after that, despite the big check, was so soul-crushing I swore I'd never do it again.
Selling out is doing something you don't believe in, or enjoy for money or some other reward. But here's the thing. I love DraftKings.
Full disclosure: I am a paid spokesman for them. I've filmed a few commercials for them, I'm going to continue to tweet for them, make appearances on their behalf and there will be opportunities for people to play against me on their site in the future. It's a deal I agreed to for one very specific reason:
I like it.
I like the product, I like the company, I know the people who run the company and they're good people. I really enjoy playing daily fantasy and I really enjoy doing it on DraftKings. I'd recommend them anyway, so if they want to send me a check to do it? You bet. Where do I sign?
It's this weird thing. Like you, I have bills to pay. I have kids to put through college (five, believe it or not). I have expenses, so I need to earn money.
But I'm blessed that over the past 16 years I've managed to develop an audience that trusts me and it's a responsibility that I take very seriously. So I've never endorsed something I didn't believe in. That simple.
If you've read me for a long time, you know my father is a customer service guru and among the things he's preached is quality of service and the best way to get a customer is not by being the cheapest, but by being the best. Deliver a good product, whatever that is, and people will find it.
So as fantasy has grown, my career has as well, and I'm blessed that I've been offered a number of opportunities. Some I turn down. But I'm 45 years old. I have no idea how long some of those opportunities will be around. So when I find one that I really like and believe in, I take it and I promote it, because I believe in what the company is doing or what I have done. I figure if I like it, others will too. They are almost always related to the enhancement and enjoyment of fantasy.
My book has a rating of 4.6 out of 5 stars on Amazon off of hundreds of reviews. We have an over 90 percent renewal rate on RotoPass. The app based on "Fantasy Life" has a five-star rating based on hundreds of reviews. The fall season of the Fantasy Movie League site is up 800 percent from the summer season. People are obsessed with that game.
<aside class="inline float-r" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: none; margin: 6px 0px 15px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">[h=1]Matthew Berry's RotoPass[/h]
Need help with customized ranks for your scoring system, lineup setting tools, season-long projections and in-season trade help? You need the Ultimate Fantasy Football resource. Get ESPN Insider and five other leading fantasy football sites for one low price. You're welcome. -- Matthew Berry
</aside>None of that is promotion -- in all seriousness, enjoy them or not, I don't care, all of them are doing well -- but rather me trying to show that when I promote something it's because I truly believe in it and it's something of quality. The people that have taken my advice and bought/downloaded/used one of those products have almost always come away very happy.
Daily fantasy isn't for everyone. It's illegal in some states, it costs money and the appeals of it are different than the appeals of season-long play. I get that. Everything in moderation, and just like I would tell someone not to go to a movie if they can't afford to lose the cost of two tickets, gas, snacks, a babysitter and everything else, nor should you play daily fantasy if you can't afford it.
I merely wanted to say that if it's something you're interested in trying out, I believe you will have a fun and good experience doing so on DraftKings. That's all.
There are also lots of people who do play daily and those people are looking to me for advice on how to win there. So I wanted to give them advice. And people HATED IT.
Maybe some of it is just fatigue from all of the commercials, which I can't control. Maybe some of it was because I handled it poorly. Sometimes I don't have the time or, honestly, the skill to write a column exactly how I want. I'm human. So it's probably on me.
Many people sent notes and tweets telling me they enjoyed the column and to shake off the "haters," but here's the thing: It wasn't haters. A typical note I got was like this: (I've edited for length)
Matthew: For years I have been reading your articles and have enjoyed so much of what you've written, particularly the draft day manifesto and each week's love/hate for football. You always mention that we can skip down to the end to read past the non-football stuff, but honestly I love what you write in the beginning of the articles just as much. Typically your fantasy advice is taken into account with all of my roster decisions, but I was really put off by your last love/hate. I know DFS has become a part of your business, but for those of us who have no interest and stick with season-long leagues it makes the recommendations skewed. I spent nine years in the Navy, so I understand having to be a "company man," but I really wish you would take it back to comparing it against overall rankings. Or at least make a different set of recommendations for DFS and those in season-long leagues. I know you still have your rankings, but the reasoning of why you love or hate a player more than others is what I tend to focus on. For now I'll continue to read the opening stories and be entertained, but I'll be hoping your whole article will be returning to its former glory. - Sean Powers (Washington, DC)
Now ... how can I turn down a note like that? Many opinions were like that. "I'm a fan; I didn't like this."
So ... I hear you. I appreciate the genuine feedback and thoughtfulness of the note, Sean. And thank you very much for your service.
I wanted to address this, but starting next week we will be back to the format you've come to expect with a long, fun intro and then the normal Love/Hate. For those that DO play daily, understand that pretty much everyone that is a "love" or "hate" is also someone I would use in daily. But for each position, I have put a small section of players whose prices on DraftKings I particularly like. So ... a compromise hopefully everyone can live with. And if not, well, there are lots of other great fantasy articles here on ESPN.com. I am positive your needs will be met by one of my colleagues.
The intersection of art and commerce is never an easy one, but I've tried to be as honest as possible as I navigate it and I'll continue to try to do so. Either way, I appreciate the feedback. Well, except for the tweet about me dying. That one burned a little.
[h=2]Quarterbacks I love in Week 2[/h]<aside class="inline inline-photo float-l" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: none; margin: 6px 18px 15px 0px; padding: 15px; width: 285px; min-height: 1px; position: relative; float: left; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><figure style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 0; margin: 0px; position: relative;"><i style="box-sizing: border-box;">
<source data-srcset="http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0822%2Fnfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=267, http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0822/nfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=534 2x" media="(min-width: 376px)" srcset="http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0822%2Fnfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=267, http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0822/nfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=534 2x" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><source data-srcset="http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0822%2Fnfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=375, http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0822/nfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=750 2x" media="(max-width: 375px)" srcset="http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F0822%2Fnfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=375, http://a4.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/photo/2015/0822/nfl_a_brees01jr_B_1296x729.jpg&w=750 2x" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><img class="imageLoaded lazyloaded" data-image-container=".inline-photo" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 0px; vertical-align: top; max-width: 100%; display: block; width: 253px;"></picture><figcaption class="photoCaption" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 11px; line-height: 16px; padding-top: 10px; position: relative;">Drew Brees has thrown for 300-plus yards in 14 of his past 18 home games, and at least 235 yards in 32 straight at home. <cite style="box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(153, 153, 153); font-style: normal; display: inline-block; white-space: nowrap;">AP Photo/Bill Feig</cite></figcaption></i></figure></aside>Drew Brees, Saints: I was down on him in the preseason and don't think he's a top-five QB at the end of the season when all is said and done. Or frankly, even when just somethings are said and done. But this week, he's all that and a beignet, playing at home (98 TDs, 26 INTs at home the past four seasons) against a Tampa Bay team that just made a rookie QB look like Montana. Joe, not the state. My No. 1 quarterback this week for both season-long and daily.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Money at home, Big Ben has averaged 347.3 pass yards per game (best in the NFL) since the start of last season to go along with 23 passing touchdowns and four interceptions. The 49ers are traveling east on a short week for a 1 p.m. game, and it's worth noting four of the five highest-scoring games they gave up to opposing QBs last season came on the road.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals: NOW do you see why I was talking him up so much in the preseason? Take out the game when he got injured last year and he's now thrown multiple touchdowns in each of his past seven starts. Two first names and two last names, double the crowd pleaser. Yes, I do know someone named Palmer. How many Bears-are-bad stats do you want? Let's say three, all since the start of last season:
1. Only one team has allowed more fantasy points to QBs than the Bears.
2. Bears have allowed opponents to complete 67.3 percent of their passes.
3. They have also allowed the most completions and highest completion percentage on deep passes (15-plus yards downfield).
Wait a minute. What's this one doing on the floor? Chicago has also given up 37 passing touchdowns since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Damn. They really are not good. But that's it. Seriously. I'm done. No more. I promise.
By the way, super random, but did you know that since last season, one of every 10.4 completions against the Bears has resulted in a touchdown?
I lied.
If you're desperate: The Raiders' secondary was bad to begin with and now it's banged up. Hello, Joe Flacco. ... Greg Roman has installed many of the same plays for Tyrod Taylor that he used for Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco. Against a Patriots defense that gave up the 5th-most passing yards last week, he'll be able to put them to use. ... Philip Rivers gets no respect. I'm the highest on him, as he now has three straight games with at least 290 passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in 10 of his past 16, the same rate as Drew Brees.
The price is right: If you play daily fantasy sports on DraftKings, all the guys here are priced well, like Brees, Roethlisberger, Palmer and Flacco. I also think for the price that Jay Cutler could be interesting this week, as could Taylor if you want to go really cheap. Speaking of cheap, no one ever went broke betting against Rob Ryan's defense, so I could see a good amount of junk-time scoring this week for Jameis Winston, especially if he gets Mike Evans back.
[h=2]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 2[/h]Peyton Manning, Broncos: Man, I hope I'm wrong here, but what about last week gives you any amount of confidence at all? Single-digit fantasy points now in three of his past five and has not had more than 13 points in his past six. The Broncos' offensive line looks like a mess, Peyton looks uncomfortable in the new system so far and now he has to travel to Arrowhead on a very short week? I think he'll ultimately be fine, but it doesn't feel like it happens Thursday.
Matthew Stafford, Lions: Not playing in a dome this week, Stafford has averaged just 185 passing yards per game with three total touchdowns in his past three against the Vikings, whose defense is better than they showed Monday night in San Fran. I mean, maybe he throws another 5-yard pass to Theo Riddickin the middle of the field that Theo then outruns everyone for a touchdown with a minute left again to give Stafford a second touchdown pass again this week, but I would not call it likely.
Cam Newton, Panthers: Bad matchup, even if Cam had a receiver on the team who could catch. Greg Olsen will be covered by, like, six people. Or else the Texans will blitz. Since the start of last season, the Texans have blitzed 43 percent of the time, second most in the NFL. During that same time frame, Newton has 12 INTs against the blitz, tied for second most. Oh, and Houston has allowed just one rushing TD to a QB since the start of last season.
[h=2]Running backs I love in Week 2[/h]Justin Forsett, Ravens: Filed to ESPN: The Raiders are stinky. Forsett may lose his gig at some point this year but it won't be because of what he does Sunday. Last season, the Raiders gave up 17 rushing TDs (tied for third most in the league) and seven receiving TDs to running backs (second most). Jeremy Hill put two on them last week and Forsett should find the sledding much easier this week than last.
Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller, Saints: Who dat? Who dat not starting everything not nailed down against Tampa Bay on the road?


Chris Ivory, Jets: Guys! I swear! The Jets' offense isn't going to be terrible! Chris Ivory is going to be better than you think! I was screaming this from the rooftops in the preseason, which, now that I look back on it, wasn't nearly as effective as just writing it in columns online, but whatever. No time to reflect on my communication methods now, but Ivory is getting plenty of work and has a Monday night matchup against a Colts team that is tied for the sixth-most rushing touchdowns allowed since the start of last season, including two to the Bills last week. Another benefit? The more Ivory runs, the less time Andrew Luck and his beard (whatever the length) gets to be on the field.
Rashad Jennings, Giants: The Falcons looked like a different defense last week; there's no question Dan Quinn has them fired up. I was impressed. But even with that, they still gave up two rushing touchdowns last week, and three total to running backs. The Falcons are traveling on a short week and with 100 total yards or a score in six of his past eight games with more than 10 carries, expect Eli Manning to tell Jennings to score this week.
Ameer Abdullah, Lions: Did you see what Carlos Hyde did to the Vikings' run defense last week? Well, so did the Lions.
Tevin Coleman, Falcons: Coleman had 58 rushing yards before contact Monday, more than any Falcons player had in a game last season. He had more carries last week than Devonta Freeman had rushing yards and now gets a team that just got gashed for 212 yards last week by the Cowboys' running backs. High-upside flex play.
If you're desperate: I know, I was surprised by Bishop Sankey too, but against a Cleveland team that just gave up 153 to Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell, he should have another week of looking like an actual NFL running back. ... Lance Dunbarled all Cowboys running backs in snaps on Sunday night, and had eight targets, tied for second most on the team. No Dez Bryant means the team will continue to need all others in the passing game to step up, and it's worth noting the Eagles allowed the most receiving touchdowns to running backs last season. ... Danny Woodhead's usage in the red zone last week was not a fluke. He is who Philip Rivers trusts.
The price is right: Among the running backs I'll be using a lot of in daily this week include all of the guys I've listed in this section, plus Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Carlos Hyde ($5,200!) and, in tournament play, Chris Johnson.
[h=2]Running backs I hate in Week 2[/h]Latavius Murray, Raiders: Just 60 yards a game (3.8 yards per carry) and no touchdowns since that magical Thursday night game last season. He gets you almost 30 a game in the receiving department, which helps, but against Baltimore it won't be enough to make him anything more than a low-upside flex. Did you know that since the start of last season every single defense in the NFL has had multiple games allowing at least 21 fantasy points to opposing running backs? Every single NFL team ... except the Ravens.
Dion Lewis, Patriots: Like him a lot, but let's not overreact to last week too much. It's a poor matchup against the Bills, LeGarrette Blount is back and the last time the same New England running back had back-to-back games with 100 total yards was November 2010. You might have forgotten that Lewis fumbled in the red zone last week, but I bet Bill Belichick hasn't.
Melvin Gordon, Chargers: At the moment the Chargers prefer Danny Woodhead in the red zone. Danny. Woodhead.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers: Eventually, Stewart and the Panthers will get on track, but not this week against a Texans team that has given up the second-fewest rushing scores and the eighth-lowest yards per carry since the start of last season.
[h=2]Wide receivers I love in Week 2[/h]Brandin Cooks, Saints: See Brees, Drew. Top-10 play for me this week.
Julian Edelman, Patriots: There might be three players guarding Rob Gronkowski on Sunday. Seriously. Averaging almost nine catches and 92 yards a game in his past five, Edelman has two more receptions in that time frame thanAntonio Brown. He's also got 10-plus targets in eight straight games, and I expect it to be hard to run on Buffalo and for Gronk to be well covered. Shana tova, Mr. Edelman. Shana tova!
John Brown, Cardinals: In seven games with Carson Palmer, Brown has four touchdowns. Need me to give you more stats about how bad the Bears are? No? You're good? OK, just making sure.

Steve Smith Sr., Ravens: When your opponent's best defensive back is 39 years old and hurt, well, that's a secondary to attack.


James Jones, Packers: Put this stat out on Twitter recently. In the past 24 games Jones has played withAaron Rodgers (not including the game Rodgers left early with injury), Jones has 20 touchdowns. Twenty touchdowns in 24 games. Just a way of me saying I don't think last week was a fluke. Randall Cobb andDavante Adams will still have tons of value, of course, but Jones will have value this season, including Sunday against the traveling Seahawks, who look a little more human without Kam Chancellor.
Jarvis Landry, Dolphins: No team has allowed more receiving yards from the slot since the start of last season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. For all the struggles the Dolphins' offense had last week, Ryan Tannehill is dialed into Jarvis Landry (11 targets last week) and should find a lot more yards on the table this week.
Terrance Williams, Cowboys: Just a stat to tell you what you'd probably guess: Since the start of last season, Williams leads the Cowboys in targets and receiving yards on plays when Dez Bryant isn't on the field. There's lot to like about the Eagles this year but if last week was any indication, their secondary isn't one of them.
If you're desperate: Speaking of opportunity with players out, I expect Pierre Garcon to get a ton of looks without DeSean Jackson on Sunday. ... Tony Romohas completed more than 70 percent of his pass attempts to Cole Beasley, the highest completion percentage to any wideout he's targeted at least 10 times. Beasley also gets a boost. ... Brandon Coleman got seven targets last week, scored and is available in about 75 percent of leagues. In case you missed it, I'm all about New Orleans this week. #All in #Sorry to curse you Saints fans #I can't believe I'm still doing this bit ... It's just one week and it was a lot of dink and dunk, but still. Thirteen targets are 13 targets, so super-deep PPR leagues should be aware of Rashad Greene. Why do I think Jacksonville will be throwing a lot in this game? I'd feel more comfortable just rostering him than starting him this week unless I was super desperate, but just wanted to mention him.
The price is right: In addition to the guys mentioned above, players whose daily prices I like include Eric Decker, Donte Moncrief, Jermaine Kearse andEddie Royal.
[h=2]Wide receivers I hate in Week 2[/h]Andre Johnson, Colts: Johnson looked slow to me last week (which stinks, because I was hyping him all offseason) and while I'm hoping he snaps out of it, he'll spend at least some of his time Monday night on Revis Island and I just don't have a lot of confidence he'll do much against the Jets secondary, even ifAntonio Cromartie doesn't play.
Brandon Marshall, Jets: Same game; my expectation is that Marshall getsVontae Davis, who is a true shutdown corner and is expected to shadow the opponents' top receivers this season.
Mike Wallace, Vikings: I'm still on Team Charles Johnson here and while better days are ahead for Teddy Bridgewater and the entire Vikings offense, I don't see Wallace getting deep for one here. Since the start of last season, the Lions have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards and receiving TDs on deep passes (15-plus yards downfield).
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: I can't imagine you have better options, so you're starting him, but I'd lower expectations and I'm not paying for him in daily. Tough matchup here with the Panthers, who have held their opponents' top overall pass-catcher to fewer than 60 yards in eight straight games, a run that includes limiting the effectiveness of Julio Jones (twice), Josh Gordon, Mike Evans, Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Maclin. Hopkins is outside my top 10 this week, especially given the QB play.
[h=2]Tight ends I love in Week 2[/h]Martellus Bennett, Bears: Death, taxes, start your tight ends against the Cards. Especially when your tight end is the guy who led all NFL tight ends in receptions last season and was second in targets.
Zach Ertz, Eagles: Looked healthy to me and as you know, I am a medically trained doctor. Doctor of love, that is. Bwahahahaha. OK, I may be punch-drunk. Anyway, Ertz played more than 50 snaps last week and ran a route on 75 percent of those, both of which are good numbers. His nine targets on Monday night were nice as well and while Dallas' defense has improved (Sean Lee's return certainly helps), it's worth noting Dallas allowed 109 receptions to tight ends last season, 14 more than any other team in the NFL.
Jordan Cameron, Dolphins: I loved how he looked last week and, you know, Jacksonville.
If you're desperate: Jordan Reed is currently healthy and with no DeSean Jackson, Kirk Cousins will be looking for others. It's not a great matchup, but volume should make Reed usable this weekend. ... Gut call, but I bet Scott Chandler scores against his former team this week, getting into the end zone for the second straight week. He ran a route on 52 percent of his snaps last week (the Patriots run more two-tight end sets than anyone) and with so much attention on Gronk, I bet Chandler gets more usage than people might expect this week. ... Steve Smith can't catch everything and after watching Tyler Eiferthighlights, I'm guessing Crockett Gillmore is excited to see the Raiders this week.
The price is right: In addition to the other guys listed in this section, I'll probably be playing a decent amount of Tyler Eifert, Heath Miller and Delanie Walker (if he's able to go).
[h=2]Tight ends I hate in Week 2[/h]Greg Olsen, Panthers: Again, like with DeAndre Hopkins, I can't imagine you have better options, so you're starting him, but lower expectations and look elsewhere in daily. Olsen was used as a blocker on 39 plays last week and ran just 32 routes. He's the obvious target for a defense looking to take the Panthers' best passing-game weapon out of the mix. Houston was the second-best defense against tight ends last season and given the pass rush the Texans can generate, I'm worried Olsen will have to stay in and block a lot more this week as well.
Owen Daniels, Broncos: Daniels got just two targets last week and you know I'm nervous that Peyton didn't look great. In addition, the Chiefs allowed were second best in passing yards allowed and completion percentage in 2014 and allowed the third-fewest yards per attempt to opposing tight ends last season.
[h=2]Defenses I love in Week 2[/h]Miami Dolphins: Until further notice, start the defense playing the Jaguars. Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true.
St. Louis Rams: Kirk Cousins never met triple coverage he couldn't throw into. The Rams sacked Russell Wilson six times last week. What do you think they're gonna do to Cousins?
Baltimore Ravens: I'm picking on the Jaguars and Redskins, but it's not like the Raiders are all that, you know?
If you're desperate: You could do worse than starting the defense facing a depleted Browns team that might be playing the possibly-not-ready-for-prime-time Johnny Manziel. ... Ryan Mallett should scare no one, so at home, against the Texans, the Panthers' defense is safe to fire up once again. ... The Steelers' defense isn't good, but at home against a 49ers team traveling east on a short week for a 1 p.m. game could certainly work, especially given the conservative nature of San Fran's offense.
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</article>The price is right: In addition to the defenses mentioned above, the Saints at home against Winston, and the Cardinals against Jay Cutler are among the defenses that are interesting to me on DraftKings. But I'm probably rolling with Baltimore and Houston in most of my lineups.
[h=2]Defenses I hate in Week 2[/h]Seattle Seahawks: The most fantasy points scored by a defense in a game against Green Bay at Lambeau last season was five. The Seahawks will be without Chancellor again and just gave up 34 points to the Rams.

San Francisco 49ers: Love Eric Mangini, but again, on the road for an East Coast 1 p.m. start on a short week against an offense that gave up double-digit points to an opposing fantasy defense twice last year? No thanks.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Carson Palmer has a great matchup against Chicago's weak pass defense[/h]
Tristan H. Cockcroft, Fantasy


Matchups are often a driving force behind fantasy owners' weekly lineup decisions. When choosing between two (or more) similarly talented players, you know the first question that comes to mind: Which one has the better matchup?
Ah, but what, exactly, constitutes a favorable or unfavorable matchup?
That's where this column comes in. The "Matchups Map," each week, provides a schedule-independent method to determine strength of positional matchups, using the most recent, relevant data. Check back for updated numbers each week, including matchups highlights at each position -- both favorable and unfavorable -- based upon those statistics.
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For Week 2, the maps include two measures: The first, marked "Rk," is a ranking of how favorable/unfavorable I consider that positional matchup; the second, "Adj. FPA," reflects how far above or below a player's average that defense held opponents at that position as measured in fantasy points. In Weeks 1-3, full-season data from 2014 is used for the latter measure, so take those with a grain, or several grains, of salt. Beginning in Week 4, we'll use 2015 data, and then starting in Week 6, we'll use the most recent five weeks.
Finally, a caveat: Remember that matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited; not every unfavorable matchup should be avoided. To get the most complete recipe for whom to start and sit, consult my weekly rankings.

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[h=2]Quarterbacks[/h]Favorable matchup: Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (at Chicago)
Yes, again. For the second consecutive week, Palmer faces an extraordinarily weak pass defense, this time that of the Chicago Bears. In Week 1, only theTampa Bay Buccaneers (1.50) and Pittsburgh Steelers (0.84) afforded more fantasy points per pass attempt than the Bears (0.83), and in that same Week 1, Palmer threw for 307 yards and three scores against the fourth-worst New Orleans Saints (0.75 fantasy points per throw). Palmer rarely receives recognition for his fantasy success, presumably because of his injury history, but this fact should not be ignored: He has averaged 18 fantasy points in his past seven healthy games (encompassing all of 2014-15), a number exceeded by just six other quarterbacks with as many games during that time.
Unfavorable matchup: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (at Cincinnati)
The Cincinnati Bengals have ranked among the nine best at limiting quarterbacks' fantasy totals in each of the past five seasons (2010-14). The relevance? Those coincide with defensive tackle Geno Atkins' NFL tenure, and even during 2014 as Atkins struggled to reach peak performance all year while recovering from right ACL surgery, his Bengals were third best in that category. Coming off a preseason during which he received rave reviews, a healthier Atkins in Week 1 fortified the Bengals' defensive line, totaling two tackles and one sack and helping lead the team to a 0.26 fantasy points-per-throw performance. And in the past three seasons combined, Rivers has 13 interceptions when under duress, a total exceeded by only three other quarterbacks.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]QB Matchups Map[/h]"Opp.": Week 2 opponent; "Rk": Tristan's matchup ranking; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
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TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA		TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA
	NE	1	-4.1			@BUF	17	-0.7
	@IND	2	0.4			@CIN	18	1.8
	@WAS	3	-1.9			@CHI	19	1.8
	@KC	4	1.5			@CAR	20	-1.2
	SD	5	-1.0			@NYG	21	-0.4
	@JAC	6	-0.9			@CLE	22	-0.2
	DEN	7	-0.9			NYJ	23	-0.7
	HOU	8	-0.3			SEA	24	-0.9
	TEN	9	-1.7			BAL	25	-0.2
	@GB	10	-3.9			DAL	26	2.9
	MIA	11	-1.0			STL	27	4.7
	@MIN	12	-1.1			ATL	28	1.2
	@OAK	13	0.5			TB	29	1.1
	DET	14	-1.3			SF	30	3.0
	@PHI	15	0.6			ARI	31	2.4
	@PIT	16	-1.3			@NO	32	1.8

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</aside>[h=2]Running backs[/h]Favorable matchup: Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (at Oakland)
His average draft position -- 37th overall (42.5 average pick) -- effectively makes him an automatic play, but this speaks to those of his owners who are most bothered by his disappointing five fantasy points in Week 1 or his possible shoulder injury. Though the Oakland Raiders, on paper, appeared to strengthen their run defense entering 2015, adding linebacker Curtis Lofton and tackle Dan Williams and drafting defensive end Mario Williams Jr. to a corps led by up-and-coming sophomore defensive end Khalil Mack, their Week 1 results revealed a unit that has yet to jell. The Raiders allowed 1.04 fantasy points per rush attempt, which was spot on with their 2014 number (also 1.04). This is a defense that bears watching as the season progresses, but for now, it's one to exploit in fantasy.
Unfavorable matchup: Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (vs. Baltimore)
Conversely, Forsett's opponent Murray has to deal with a Ravens run defense that was the opening week's top performer -- at least after adjusting for competition. The New York Jets allowed league lows with five fantasy points (tied with the Buffalo Bills) and 0.25 fantasy points per rush attempt but were playing the Cleveland Browns in a home game, while the Ravens played a road game against the Denver Broncos' superior backfield. The loss of linebacker Terrell Suggs does thrust the Ravens defense into a more precarious spot going forward, but that concern should first be directed at the pass D; there's still enough depth in the interior to keep this a top-eight run defense at worst. And here's the kicker: If the Ravens can mount an early lead against the Raiders' inferior defense, Murray might be taken out of the equation somewhat early.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]RB Matchups Map[/h]"Opp.": Week 2 opponent; "Rk": Tristan's matchup ranking; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
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TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA		TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA
	NE	1	-1.9			@PIT	17	-3.3
	@OAK	2	-5.7			@PHI	18	1.3
	@GB	3	-4.0			MIA	19	3.2
	@IND	4	-1.8			@CIN	20	-2.5
	@KC	5	-1.7			NYJ	21	0.8
	@WAS	6	-2.8			SD	22	4.7
	STL	7	-3.2			@CLE	23	2.3
	@CHI	8	-2.8			SEA	24	-0.2
	DAL	9	1.8			ARI	25	1.6
	@JAC	10	2.1			@NO	26	0.6
	@MIN	11	-3.5			DET	27	3.0
	HOU	12	-0.5			ATL	28	1.1
	@CAR	13	-1.3			TEN	29	2.8
	DEN	14	0.0			BAL	30	4.3
	@BUF	15	-1.8			TB	31	5.0
	SF	16	-2.4			@NYG	32	4.6

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</aside>[h=2]Wide receivers[/h]Favorable matchup: Brandon Coleman, New Orleans Saints (vs. Tampa Bay)
I was tempted to select John Brown for the second consecutive week, like Palmer, as Brown faces another outstanding matchup and is a lower-tier candidate in ESPN leagues. But picking on the Buccaneers secondary is a no-brainer, considering it allowed a whopping 25 fantasy points to Tennessee Titanswide receivers on only eight targets. In fact, strip the Titans wideouts of their two touchdowns and Tampa Bay would still have ranked eighth worst in terms of fantasy points per target allowed to the position. This is a porous pass defense sure to allow big plays -- like Kendall Wright's 52-yard score -- as frequently as any defense. And in Week 1, Coleman actually drew a healthy seven targets, including four on throws of 15-plus yards, tied for an NFL high.
Unfavorable matchup: Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Denver)
The Week 1 statistics, at least as far as the best squads defending wide receivers, were a bit murky; the Broncos, after all, were facing a Ravens team that lacked much in the way of receiver depth because of injuries. Still the Broncos have the look of a top-eight secondary on paper, and they allowed just one catch on five Ravens throws of 15-plus yard, and a league-low four passing plays of 10-plus yards. And if there's anything we know about the Chiefs' wide receivers this past calendar year, it's that they have struggled with big plays and scores, going a whopping 17 consecutive games without a touchdown and totaling a league-worst 59 targets on throws of 15 or more yards.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]WR Matchups Map[/h]"Opp.": Week 2 opponent; "Rk": Tristan's matchup ranking; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
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TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA		TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA
	@IND	1	1.0			@WAS	17	3.4
	NE	2	-1.4			DET	18	-1.8
	@KC	3	-1.1			@PHI	19	-3.4
	@GB	4	-7.9			@CLE	20	-0.5
	DEN	5	-2.2			SEA	21	1.4
	MIA	6	-1.4			ATL	22	0.0
	TEN	7	-1.4			@JAC	23	1.5
	@CAR	8	3.9			DAL	24	3.8
	NYJ	9	-2.4			BAL	25	-1.0
	@MIN	10	-2.5			@PIT	26	0.0
	HOU	11	-1.3			SF	27	3.9
	@OAK	12	3.8			@NYG	28	1.5
	@CIN	13	1.9			ARI	29	0.8
	@CHI	14	1.2			TB	30	2.2
	@BUF	15	-2.5			STL	31	4.2
	SD	16	-6.1			@NO	32	2.7

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</aside>[h=2]Tight ends[/h]Favorable matchup: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Buccaneers (at New Orleans)
This Saints defense wasn't especially good in Week 1 against a Cardinals team that is lacking in tight end talent (not to mention historically has been among the least likely teams to include the position in the game plan), allowing 2.33 fantasy points per target to the position. Since the beginning of last season, the Saints have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends in red zone situations, allowing 27 fantasy points, fifth most. Seferian-Jenkins' advantage is his size, creating mismatches near the goal line, and he has good odds of a touchdown for the second consecutive week.
Unfavorable matchup: Delanie Walker, Titans (at Cleveland)
Don't read too much into the Browns' Week 1 performance against tight ends -- a league-low one target for zero catches -- as the Jets' passing game strength is their wide receivers, not their tight ends. Still, the Browns were one of the better teams reining in opposing tight ends in 2014, allowing 0.05 points per target to the position, 10th-best in the league. The way to exploit the Browns' defense is on the ground, not via the air, so while Walker might get a decent handful of targets, his chances of a Week 1 repeat aren't especially good.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 570px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]TE Matchups Map[/h]"Opp.": Week 2 opponent; "Rk": Tristan's matchup ranking; "Adj. FPA": The number of fantasy points that defense added or subtracted from its opponent.
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TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA		TEAM	OPP.	RK	ADJ. FPA
	HOU	1	0.0			DAL	17	-2.4
	@IND	2	1.7			@CHI	18	2.1
	@OAK	3	-1.4			@CIN	19	-1.5
	TEN	4	-1.3			@CAR	20	-3.3
	NE	5	-2.8			ARI	21	3.0
	SD	6	-0.2			@KC	22	0.9
	@MIN	7	-0.2			SEA	23	-1.2
	DEN	8	-1.2			@CLE	24	1.4
	@WAS	9	-1.6			BAL	25	0.0
	DET	10	-1.2			NYJ	26	2.4
	@PIT	11	0.4			ATL	27	1.6
	MIA	12	0.2			@PHI	28	1.6
	@JAC	13	-0.9			TB	29	-0.3
	@BUF	14	0.6			STL	30	3.0
	@GB	15	0.4			@NO	31	-0.6
	@NYG	16	-0.7			SF	32	1.4

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</aside>

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 3: Matt Jones, Dion Lewis at the top[/h]
[h=1]Field Yates, ESPN Insider[/h]
Panic. That's been a prevailing theme after Week 2 of the NFL season for many fantasy football owners.
But should it be? How disconcerting is it that C.J. Anderson -- a consensus first-round pick this year -- has five (5!) fantasy points through two weeks? Or thatMarshawn Lynch, another early first-round pick, has yet to find the end zone and is averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry (down 1.2 from last season)?
It's a fine line owners walk when assessing how to manage their lineups early in the fantasy season; how long is long enough to determine whether to bench your studs? The answer is: more than two weeks. At this point last season, Eddie Lacyhad given you nine points, and Tom Brady was averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game and had just two touchdown throws. The NFL season is a marathon. Be patient.
But, oh, by the way, also play the waiver wire. Below is our weekly look at players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues that merit consideration for your roster. The end of your bench is fluid in many cases, so consider moving on from someone that hasn't yet played for you (not one of your studs) to add these guys below. Remember, the players in each section are listed in the order I would prioritize them in making waiver claims or in using your free-agent acquisition budget (FAAB).
[h=2]Top pickups[/h]Note: italicized names were mentioned as waiver adds in previous editions of Free Agent Finds, but still fit the low-ownership criteria.
Matt Jones, RB, Washington (15.8 percent): Before the season, most believed Jones -- a third-round draft pick out of Florida -- would carve out a role as a handcuff to Alfred Morris. Nope. With talent too tall to ignore, Jones is already at 25 carries for 151 yards on the season, including a 19-rush, 123-yard, two-touchdown effort Sunday. He should be owned in all leagues.
Dion Lewis, RB, New England Patriots (40.4 percent): This is likely Lewis' last week on this list for two reasons: one, we advocated for him last week (mentioning him again emphasizes how good an addition he is), and two, he surpassed 100 total yards and found the end zone ... again. He out-snappedLeGarrette Blount 70 to 7 in Week 2 and is an especially good value in points per reception leagues.


Michael Crabtree, WR, Oakland Raiders (31.6 percent): Crabtree had a terrific camp with the Raiders and played a big part in the team's victory against the Ravens (nine catches, 111 yards, one touchdown). He should be added in all leagues. The Raiders' offense was pitiful in Week 1 but made major strides in Week 2. The next two weeks will help us size up Crabtree's true value. For now, he's a worthwhile addition.
David Johnson, RB, Arizona Cardinals (46.1 percent): The addition of Johnson has a bit of a short-term ceiling on it, as Chris Johnson will likely remain the starter for as long as Andre Ellington is out. This is a talent-based addition, as David Johnson already has three touchdowns in just two pro games. It wouldn't surprise me to see him earn starting reps later in the season. Head coach Bruce Arians has already indicated that the rookie Johnson's role will increase going forward, as he had just five carries in Week 2.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills (17.8 percent): Taylor had four total touchdowns in a Week 2 defeat against the Patriots, and he has quickly crept into borderline QB1 territory in deeper leagues (14 to 16 teams). He's rushed for more than 40 yards in each of the first two weeks and has a host of young pass catchers to dish the ball to. His stock should only rise.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, RB, Baltimore Ravens (23.4 percent): Justin Forsett is off to a slow start, which is precisely what those who wondered if his 2014 was a one-hit wonder season were wary of. It's early, and I'm not suggesting that Forsett is a bust, but the hammerhead Taliaferro is worth adding. He found the end zone in Week 2.

Jordan Reed, TE, Washington (44.8 percent): In two games, he has 13 catches and 20 fantasy points. With no DeSean Jackson right now, the Washington passing game has featured Reed prominently. That's likely to stay the case for the tight end with receiver-like athleticism.


Travis Benjamin, WR, Cleveland Browns (6.2 percent): At the risk of sounding like I'm undercutting his terrific start to the season, I think there's a bit of fool's gold in Benjamin's value right now. He has four scores this season, all of 50 yards or longer. That's incredibly hard to duplicate, but he's shown enough speed to use a bench spot on in 12-team leagues or larger.
Eric Ebron, TE, Detroit Lions (20.0 percent): We saw a flurry of tight end touchdowns in Week 1, and Ebron returned to the end zone in Week 2. He's an athletic freak for the tight end position and a usable piece week to week.
[h=2]Two-QB league adds[/h]Johnny Manziel, Browns (4.5 percent): He needed only 15 throws to rack up a serviceable 14-point effort on Sunday. And that was with just one rushing yard.
Derek Carr, Raiders (10.5 percent): He had a monster Week 2 that reminded us why so many NFL folks are optimistic about his future.
[h=2]RB handcuff section[/h]Karlos Williams, Bills (22.1 percent): Two weeks, two touchdowns for the fifth-round rookie.
James Starks, Green Bay Packers (8.3 percent): Eddie Lacy was banged up in Week 2. Even if he returns in Week 3 (which is likely, according to ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter), Starks is still a talented backup.
Damien Williams, Miami Dolphins (2.0 percent): Lamar Miller has been slow out of the gate and tweaked an ankle in Week 2. Meanwhile, Williams found the end zone.
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</article>Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (41.8 percent): He carried the ball eight times against the Saints, and Doug Martin is off to a modest start in 2015.
Jeremy Langford, Chicago Bears (3.1 percent): He made good on a goal-line carry in Week 2 and is the top reserve for Matt Forte.
Chris Polk, Houston Texans (1.9 percent): Arian Foster could soon return, but Polk led all Texans backs with 14 carries in Week 2.
[h=2]Deeper-league adds[/h]Names only here, but these players are certainly worth a look in leagues of at least 12 teams, especially depending on roster makeup and scoring system.

Crockett Gillmore, TE, Baltimore Ravens (1.5 percent); Doug Baldwin, WR,Seattle Seahawks (35.7 percent); Leonard Hankerson, WR, Atlanta Falcons (3.8 percent); Rishard Matthews, WR, Miami Dolphins (0.7 percent); Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans (19.4 percent); Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints (37.5 percent); Eddie Royal, WR, Chicago Bears (47.7 percent).

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Fantasy 32: Key Week 3 tips for every team[/h]Mike Clay, Fantasy Football
ESPN INSIDER

Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.
1. Matt Jones exploded onto the fantasy scene in Week 2 with 146 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries in the Washington Redskins' win over the St. Louis Rams. Although Jones is now clearly a must-own and on the flex radar, it's important to understand that game script was very much in his favor in this game. Washington was competitive in each of its first two games (both at home), which allowed it to call 61 pass plays and 74 run plays. That's a pass rate of 45 percent, which is lowest in the NFL. The run-heavy philosophy is positive news for RBs Alfred Morris and Jones, but this isn't just a two-headed attack. When Washington is trailing, passing-down back Chris Thompson will continue to be involved. This means the most likely scenario is that Morris and Jones will be splitting the team's early-down carries in an offense that figures to finish below average in the touchdown department. Going forward, both should be viewed as flex options, especially in non-points-per-reception (PPR) leagues; however, if both stay healthy, this will be a good situation for the Redskins and a frustrating one for fantasy owners.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
2. Is it time to enter Larry Fitzgerald back into the WR1 conversation? You'd struggle to find a good reason not to. Already one of the game's most efficient players, the 32-year-old racked up eight receptions, 112 yards and a trio of touchdowns on nine targets against the Chicago Bears on Sunday. The Cardinals have already scored nine offensive touchdowns this season, albeit against the Bears and Saints, and Fitzgerald has handled a whopping 32 percent of the team's targets. Carson Palmer's favorite target is a must-start in all formats.
3. In Sunday's win over the New York Giants, the Atlanta Falcons' Leonard Hankerson caught six of 10 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Roddy White, meanwhile, failed to haul in his only target. Is this a sign of a changing of the guard? A deeper look suggests it is not. White played 55 snaps and ran 39 routes in the game. Hankerson worked 47 and 37, respectively. In fact, on the season, White has actually played four more snaps than Julio Jones. With a relatively "easy" schedule on tap over the next month or so, it's fair to expect White to rebound. He remains in the WR3 conversation.
4. Following a pair of Week 2 touchdowns, Crockett Gillmore is firmly in the TE1 conversation. Through two weeks, Gillmore has been targeted on 10 occasions, which trails only Steve Smith (22) in Baltimore. Gillmore has run 63 pass routes, which is more than Marlon Brown, Kamar Aiken and Justin Forsett. Life won't be quite as easy against Cincinnati in Week 3, but Gillmore is a featured target in a decent offense. He's a strong streaming choice and a cheap option in DFS.


5. Following a third-quarter fumble on Sunday -- his second of the day --Jeremy Hill was benched and sat out the final 30 snaps of the game. Hill fumbled only four times on 222 carries as a rookie, so it's too early to worry about his ability to hang onto the ball. Similarly, Hill is averaging an ugly 3.4 yards per carry, which is well below his impressive 5.1 YPC rookie-season mark. Cincinnati will continue to lean heavily on its running game, and we already knew Giovani Bernard would be plenty involved when we projected Hill as an RB1 in fantasy. Stay the course on Hill and he will pay dividends. He remains one of the league's top young backs and is in a great situation.
6. Arguably the league's most surprising breakout player thus far, Travis Benjamin has now scored four touchdowns (three receiving, one punt return) in two games. If you can make it happen, now is the time to sell. Benjamin caught a touchdown on two of his nine (yes, nine) pass routes on Sunday and is up to three scores on seven targets for the season. Benjamin is finally healthy and a terrific playmaker, but even top talents in elite, pass-heavy offenses can't sustain high-level production on such little volume. Stuck in a rotation with Andrew Hawkins, Brian Hartline, Taylor Gabriel and Dwayne Bowe in a run-first offense with a poor quarterback situation, Benjamin's fantasy value will never be higher.
7. Week 2 gave us our first extended look at how the Cowboys will handle personnel while Dez Bryant is out of action. Terrance Williams led the team's wide receivers in both targets (seven) and pass routes (36). Slot man Cole Beasley ran 27 routes, Devin Street worked 14, and newcomer Brice Butler ran 15. Gavin Escobar played a hefty 41 snaps against Philadelphia, but note that he ran only 17 routes and saw extra plays because the Cowboys led throughout the game. Williams is obviously the man to own here, and he belongs in the WR3 conversation even with Tony Romo out of action. Beasley's low ceiling doesn't make him very appealing as a flex, but Butler is a name to hold, especially considering he played so often in his Dallas debut.
8. James Jones scored his third touchdown of the season on Sunday night, but note that it came on his only reception of the game. Jones was targeted three times against Seattle and has handled 12 percent of Green Bay's targets on the year. That's compared to 29 percent for Randall Cobb, 24 percent for Davante Adams and 14 percent for Richard Rodgers. The Packers have had a third wide receiver on the field for all 67 of their pass plays this season, meaning Jones will continue to play a ton of snaps. It makes sense to wait until after this week's juicy matchup against struggling Chiefs RCB Jamell Fleming, but it's not a bad time to explore selling high. Jones is a touchdown-dependent WR3.
9. During the offseason, Emmanuel Sanders admitted that his receiving production would likely dip in new head coach Gary Kubiak's offense. It appears that he underestimated himself. Sanders has already racked up 24 targets this season, which is tied with Demaryius Thomas for tops on the team. After handling 25 percent of Denver's targets last season, Sanders sits at 30 percent in 2015. It appears that Denver isn't going to be blowing out opponents in the second half quite as often this year, which will allow Sanders to sustain his WR1 production.


10. With a pair of touchdowns through two games, it's clear that 2014 first-round pick Eric Ebron has joined the TE1 conversation. The second-year tight end ran 50 of 58 possible pass routes on Sunday and has now run a route on 73 of the team's 89 pass plays this season. The massive usage has helped Ebron to 10 targets, which is second on the team, trailing only Calvin Johnson (17) and two ahead of Golden Tate (eight). Johnson and especially Tate will have their hands full against Denver's talented corners this week, leaving Ebron with an opportunity for a bump in targets.
11. After a disappointing Week 1 performance, Allen Robinson made up for it by exploding back into the every-week WR2 conversation against Miami. Robinson hauled in six of his 11 targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Through two weeks, Robinson is all of a sudden sixth among wide receivers in fantasy points. Although the sky is the limit for Robinson's long-term production, he will continue to be limited by a pedestrian quarterback situation. Blake Bortles has completed 54.8 percent of his passes and is averaging 6.2 yards per attempt. Both place him near the league basement. Robinson will garner enough volume to warrant a spot in your starting lineup, but it's possible we just saw his best game of 2015.
12. Jarvis Landry has already hauled in 16 balls for 163 yards this season, but he's not even the top-scoring fantasy wide receiver on his own team. Although he's far from being a household name, Rishard Matthews has blown past newcomers Greg Jennings and Kenny Stills, and remains ahead of rookieDeVante Parker on Miami's depth chart. Matthews has been on the field for 65 of the team's 84 pass plays, which trails only Landry among the team's offensive skill-position players. Jennings has worked 56 pass plays, Stills 41 and Parker 10. Matthews has converted the playing time into 10 receptions, 149 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets. Only 16 wide receivers have more fantasy points. It remains very likely that Parker is going to emerge later this season, but Matthews needs to be owned in 10- and 12-team leagues. He has a good shot to hold off Jennings and Stills for the No. 3 job in an offense that has had its third wideout on the field for 94 percent of its pass plays this season.
13. Charles Johnson, a popular mid-round breakout candidate during fantasy draft season, has been a major disappointment thus far. Despite being on the field for 110 of the team's 115 offensive plays, Johnson has racked up only six targets. That's less than half of Kyle Rudolph's 13, and it also trails Mike Wallace's 10. Johnson has only five receptions, 37 yards and no touchdowns. Extremely unproven, Johnson has never finished a week as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. Still, he's playing a lot, and Teddy Bridgewater bounced back with a terrific outing against Detroit. There's still hope for Johnson, but he's a risky play against San Diego this week.
14. LeGarrette Blount returned to action in Week 2, but I'm using the term "action" loosely, considering he had two touches on the afternoon. On one hand, it was a surprise to see Blount carry the ball only twice in his return. On the other hand, the Patriots' recent history has made it very clear that game plan drives personnel usage. This was clearly a pass-heavy game plan, as they called 61 passes and only 15 runs. In past years, this was a Shane Vereen game. In 2015, it's a Dion Lewis game. Lewis matched his big Week 1 with 138 yards and a score on 13 touches. At home against Jacksonville in Week 3, it would make sense for the Pats' next game to be a Blount game, but starting the big man is obviously a risky proposition. Lewis is certainly a worthwhile RB2, and Blount has a two-plus touchdown upside, but the latter is more of a DFS Millionaire Maker target than an option for your season-long squad.


15. Especially in leagues that award four points for a passing touchdown,Colin Kaepernick was an undervalued fantasy option entering the 2015 season. He's sure to generate some attention on waivers this week after completing 33 of 46 passes for 335 yards and two touchdowns, while adding a team-high 51 rushing yards on nine carries. Considering that the average NFL quarterback posts 10 to 15 rushing yards per week, Kaepernick's 46 yards-per-game average thus far cannot be ignored. In those aforementioned four-point-passing-touchdown formats, that's a difference of nearly a full passing touchdown per game. Quietly fantasy's No. 14 scoring quarterback despite rushing for only one touchdown last season, Kaepernick is a strong option for quarterback streamers.
16. Through two weeks, there are major concerns about the Eagles' offense, but that hasn't stopped Jordan Matthews from performing at a high level. With Matthews locked in the slot, Philadelphia has used its "11" personnel package -- one running back, three wide receivers and one tight end -- on an NFL-high 91 percent of its offensive snaps. Matthews has responded with 16 receptions, 182 yards and one score on 16 targets. He's No. 15 in fantasy points among wide receivers. Following a dreadful outing against Dallas, the Eagles' offense can only improve going forward. That will benefit Matthews and suggests he's certainly in the WR1 conversation. Of course, given the possibility that he'll be shadowed by Darrelle Revis in Week 3, Matthews is a strong fade candidate in DFS.
17. When the Steelers selected Sammie Coates in the third round of May's draft, many assumed he'd eventually push underwhelming Markus Wheaton out of three-wide sets. Darrius Heyward-Bey has other ideas. Used mainly as a special-teamer last season, Heyward-Bey has been heavily involved offensively during Martavis Bryant's suspension. Heyward-Bey was on the field for 26 of Pittsburgh's 27 pass plays against San Francisco in Week 2. That was just as often as Wheaton and one time less often than Antonio Brown. Heyward-Bey has converted his snaps into eight receptions, 135 yards and a score this season. Wheaton sits at five receptions, 122 yards and no touchdowns. Martavis Bryantwill be this team's No. 2 wideout once he returns to action, but it's very possible Heyward-Bey will push past Wheaton for the No. 3 gig. In the meantime, both Wheaton and Heyward-Bey are shaky flex options.
18. If we learned anything from the first half of Monday night's game, it's the value of analyzing wide receiver/cornerback matchups. With Vontae Davisprimarily in shadow coverage on Brandon Marshall, slot man Eric Decker was all but a lock for a huge game. Both Greg Toler and slot corner Darius Butler were out for the Colts, leaving Decker to feast on Sheldon Price and Jalil Brown. Decker caught eight of 11 targets for 97 yards in the first half before going down with an injury. Marshall beat zone coverage for a 42-yard catch in the second quarter, but did most of his damage after Davis went down with an injury and didn't find the end zone until Decker was out. If Davis is able to play this week, expect him to see a lot of Justin Hunter and Harry Douglas. Although he's shadowed both Sammy Watkins and Marshall this season, he has yet to follow them to the slot, and he lined up inside on a pass play just 31 times all of last season. Considering Decker's success on Monday, Titans slot man Kendall Wright is an obvious Week 3 upgrade.
19. Following the team's offseason acquisitions of Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett, many forgot about Seattle Seahawks No. 1 wide receiver Doug Baldwin. Having now hauled in 14 of 16 targets for 127 yards and a touchdown this season, Baldwin is back on the fantasy radar. Baldwin has been on the field for 77 of Seattle's 90 pass plays, which has helped him to a team-high 16 targets. Graham (10 targets through two weeks) will certainly see an uptick in looks, but there is enough volume available for Baldwin to produce top-40 numbers at the position.
20. Despite finishing among the top 15 fantasy tight ends each of the past two seasons, Jared Cook is barely on the fantasy radar. He's at it again in 2015, having already racked up 132 receiving yards. That's seventh most at the position. Despite his massive 6-foot-5, 254-pound frame, Cook has never surpassed five touchdowns in a single season, and that scoring pace seems to be continuing in 2015 (he's yet to find the end zone). Cook should be on your radar as a bye week fill-in, but there simply isn't a ton of upside to be had in the Ram's low-scoring, run-first offense.
21. After missing Week 1, Mike Evans let his owners down with zero catches on three targets in Week 2. Don't panic. Evans admitted he was still limited by the injury and game flow was not in his favor. After generating an early lead and holding it all afternoon, the Buccaneers called 30 passes and 29 runs. Evans was on the field for 19 of the pass plays. The 22-year-old won't match the 12 touchdowns he put up as a rookie, but he's certainly going to be Jameis Winston's top target once healthy. Evans remains in the WR1 discussion.


22. A surprise inactive in Week 1, Roy Helu returned to the field in Week 2 against Baltimore, but played only four snaps and did not touch the ball. Expected to be a major contributor on passing downs when signed during free agency, Helu is lagging behind converted cornerback Taiwan Jones. It's likely Helu earns his way back up the totem pole later this season, but he's obviously no threat to Latavius Murray, who has handled 26 of the team's 34 carries this season. If you haven't done it already, Helu is safe to drop.
23. During the offseason, Eli Manning suggested Rueben Randle was in for a breakout 2015 season. It was certainly a bold statement, considering that Randle was 20th among wide receivers in targets during the 2014 season, but underwhelmed to the tune of 71 receptions, 938 yards and three touchdowns. Through two games, it appears any Randle hype was misguided. The 24-year-old has racked up only seven targets despite running 80 of the team's 82 pass routes. Randle is fifth on the Giants in targets, behind Odell Beckham Jr., Shane Vereen, Preston Parker (who was cut on Tuesday) and Larry Donnell. And considering Victor Cruz is due back in two weeks, Randle is not worth starting-lineup consideration.
24. Last week, we advised you to sell high on Bishop Sankey. If you failed to do so, the window has likely closed. With Tennessee playing from behind, game flow was not in his favor, allowing Dexter McCluster to rack up 14 touches to Sankey's 12. Even worse for Sankey's prospects, McCluster was significantly more productive. The scatback put up 124 yards on 14 touches. Sankey remains Tennessee's lead back, but the 13 touches he's currently averaging won't be enough to make him a worthwhile flex play. Sankey is best left on the bench against Indianapolis this week.
25. Through two weeks of play, Percy Harvin has run 54 pass routes, which has helped him to 10 targets. Robert Woods, meanwhile, has run 45 routes and racked up five targets. Harvin is clearly ahead of Woods on the depth chart, but neither player is going to see enough volume to warrant starting-lineup consideration in fantasy. The Bills have called 64 passes and 56 runs this season, which is the sixth most run calls among all teams in the league.
26. With 70 yards and no scores on six receptions, Greg Olsen didn't exactly break out in Week 2, but don't overlook his 14-target afternoon. After a letdown season opener, Olsen is all of a sudden second on Carolina with 12 targets. Considering his only competition for targets is Ted Ginn, Corey Brown, Jerricho Cotchery and yet-to-emerge Devin Funchess, Olsen is a safe bet to consistently see a heavy volume of work. Continue starting him with confidence as a mid-pack TE1.
27. In what felt like a down game for Matt Forte, the 29-year-old put up 105 yards on 19 touches in Week 2. After pacing all running backs in snaps each of the past two seasons, Forte has already eclipsed 100 snaps this season, which has allowed him a hefty 39 carries and 12 targets. New offensive coordinator Adam Gase has been using a ton of three-wide sets, but is calling a very run-heavy game, which will help Forte's carry total and efficiency. Forte's high floor makes him an attractive play in 50/50 DFS formats.
28. As one of the few remaining Drew Brees apologists on the planet, I've been quite disappointed by these first two games. Despite an ugly Week 2 performance at home against the Buccaneers, it's not yet the time to cut bait. Brees has already attempted 87 passes this season, which trails only Tom Brady,Andrew Luck and Sam Bradford. His 63 percent completion rate and 2-to-2 TD-to-INT mark are ugly, but this is a future Hall of Famer who completed more than 75 percent of his aimed throws last season. Brees is going to throw the ball a ton this season, and touchdowns have followed those attempts throughout his career.
29. When Jeremy Maclin signed with the Chiefs, we suspected he'd be force-fed the ball. It may not seem like that has been the case thus far, but Maclin has quietly handled a massive 29 percent of Kansas City's targets. Travis Kelce sits at 23 percent and Jamaal Charles at 21 percent. Clearly among the team's top three offensive weapons (no other player is above 8 percent), it's safe to expect Maclin to continue handling a large workload. He remains in the WR2 discussion in PPR formats.
30. Arian Foster may return this week, but, if not, it appears Chris Polk will be the desperation flier worth your attention. Polk was on the field for 39 of Houston's 81 offensive plays against Carolina. That was well ahead of Alfred Blue's 22 snaps and Jonathan Grimes' 14. Polk wasn't particularly productive in the game, but he did manage 14 carries and seven touches. Volume breeds fantasy production, especially at the running back position, which certainly puts Polk on the flex radar against Tampa Bay this week. Of course, his floor here is extremely low.
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</article>31. The Jets have called 60 passes and 62 runs so far this season. That ranks them as the league's No. 2 run-heaviest offense, behind only the Redskins. Although play-calling analysis suggests they are, in fact, calling a run-first game, it's important to note that game flow has been a major factor here. The Jets led throughout both their Week 1 domination of Cleveland (31-10) and their upset of Indianapolis (20-7). New York's schedule isn't particularly intimidating over the next month, so don't be surprised if this trend continues. Closing back in on full health, Chris Ivory (groin) will continue to operate as the team's workhorse. He's a candidate for 20 touches against the Eagles in Week 3.
32. With all the attention on Keenan Allen and newcomer Stevie Johnson, don't forget about Malcom Floyd in San Diego. Set to retire after this season, Floyd added yet another long touchdown (40 yards, to be exact) to his resume on Sunday. The veteran has been on the field for 70 of the team's 76 pass plays this season, which is just behind Allen (76) and Johnson (71). Floyd is as boom/bust as they come, but he's finished as a top-36 fantasy wide receiver during four of the past five seasons and continues to play an every-down role.

 

[HacheMan]

Four Downs: QB options for injured Romo

Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Some excellent football was certainly played on the Sunday of Week 2. Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals scored 48 points in Chicago. Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, Pittsburgh Steelers running back DeAngelo Williamsand Cleveland Browns wide receiver Travis Benjamin each scored three touchdowns, while Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson and New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. bounced back from uninspiring performances in Week 1. Some really good football and positive fantasy things happened Sunday.

And then the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles played in the late afternoon and nearly set the sport back 50 years.

The big stories for fantasy football entering Week 3, unfortunately, will be the significant injury suffered by Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo and the pathetic production by pretty much all Eagles, but notably star running back DeMarco Murray, who left the Cowboys for Philly and has rushed for 11 yards, not on one play, but through two games. At least he’s apparently healthy. Romo broke his clavicle in a mostly unwatchable 20-10 win over the Eagles and figures to be lost for perhaps two months. He might beat his top wide receiver Dez Bryant back into the lineup, he might not. But as a top-10 QB in fantasy, one of nine passers owned in at the start of Sunday in 96 percent of more ESPN standard leagues, his loss will be felt.

Then again, quarterback is a rather deep position and while the Cowboys must turn to backup Brandon Weeden, fantasy owners can do better. It’s a much bigger deal for Dallas to lose Romo. Arizona’s Palmer began Sunday owned in 67.3 percent of ESPN leagues, and that figure will clearly be rising this week, while the occasionally productive Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco 49ershad a big Sunday throwing and running. Using 50 percent owned/available as a benchmark I’d focus on the upside of the Oakland Raiders’ Derek Carr, Buffalo Bills’ Tyrod Taylor, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Andy Dalton and perhaps more than one. You just lost Romo, it might take several quarterbacks and playing the weekly matchups to effectively replace him.
Carr made my sleeper list before the season not due to anything we saw in his moribund play as a rookie, but because the franchise added awesome wide receiver Amari Cooper in the draft, and while Week 1 didn’t go so well, Sunday did. Cooper and Michael Crabtree make a huge difference in this offense, which lit up the Ravens for 37 points. With weapons and time to throw, Carr is able to throw deep and Sunday he showed poise and arm strength. Cooper reminds me of Atlanta Falcons star Julio Jones; perhaps he’s not as fast, but he can’t be covered. Carr isn’t Matt Ryan but Dalton, for all his issues, didn’t hamper the development or upside of A.J. Green. Carr has road games upcoming with the Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears, and that’s enough for me to take a longer look.

Taylor threw three interceptions in Sunday’s loss to the New England Patriots, but also accounted for four touchdowns, three passing and one running. Sure, some of the production came later and he remains a bit raw, but he’s mobile, can make all the throws, readily available and has several intriguing matchups in the next month, including the Giants and Tennessee Titans. Plus, he finally got second-year wide receiver Sammy Watkins involved, and this is indeed a good thing.

Dalton’s name has become synonymous with disappointment in recent seasons, not only in January, but for the months preceding the playoff month. In 2013 this was, believe it or not, fantasy’s No. 5 quarterback. He hasn’t been top 10 the past two seasons, but he’s the same fellow, decision making and all. Could he return to top-10 status, with Green, a top-10 tight end in Tyler Eifert and a pair of outstanding running backs? Stranger things have happened. On Sunday Dalton threw three touchdown passes against the San Diego Chargers; through two weeks he has five touchdowns and nary an interception, good for 39 standard fantasy points. The frustrating mistakes are surely coming but look what Carr just did to the Ravens, Dalton’s Week 3 foe. Dalton will face the Ravens again in Week 17, plus the Steelers and 49ers in December. That’s looking pleasant.

For those in ESPN standard leagues, if you’re replacing Romo with one quarterback, try to keep him on your bench until we get further word of recovery time. It is possible he returns in October and we’re past the point of dismissing Romo statistically when he’s active, or at least we should be. It’s also possible he’s not back until Thanksgiving, in which case moving on and using the bench spot for multiple upside quarterbacks makes more sense. Bryant was obviously more valuable on fantasy draft day and he remains that way today, although we still don’t have clarity on how much time he’ll miss, either. The fantasy value of wide receiver Terrance Williams, so bright entering Sunday, is a bit different now. I have little confidence Weeden, who struggled mightily with Cleveland, can be productive or save the value of his weapons, but with this offensive line, I’m not downgrading Joseph Randle.

As for the Eagles, a team that wants to run the football but clearly cannot due to awful offensive line play and perhaps quarterback limitations, don’t drop Murray, still a special talent, though he needs help. We’ll keep saying things have to get better, and they should. Perhaps Chip Kelly figures out how to get the line playing better, though it won’t be much fun in Week 3 at the New York Jets. The erratic play of Bradford Sunday didn’t bolster confidence of his fantasy owners. Frankly, if you need to part with Bradford, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles and Nelson Agholor, I wouldn’t argue, though I would try to be a bit more patient. I’d definitely keep Murray, Jordan Matthews and tight end Zach Ertz, though.

Second down: Entering Sunday night’s Green Bay Packers-Seattle Seahawkstilt only one of the top five running back scorers in Week 2 for standard scoring was even drafted in most leagues. That was Minnesota’s Peterson, who went from 10 rushing attempts in a Week 1 loss to 29 totes for 134 yards in a Week 2 win. Hmmm, perhaps the Vikings will keep him busy as it correlates to team success? Peterson was active in all ESPN leagues, so good to see the generally over-reactive fantasy world didn’t panic on him. As for the other top running backs, there are some new names to consider, and value is varied. Pittsburgh’s Williams surprised in Week 1 by rushing for 127 yards, and Sunday he added 77 more and three scores. Alas, Le’Veon Bell returns from suspension for Week 3 and it’s unlikely a timeshare is looming, no matter how much Williams owners beg. The way the Steelers have blocked for Williams and with how well Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are playing, I’ve still got Bell ending up as up fantasy’s top standard scoring non-quarterback.

Meanwhile, Washington Redskins rookie Matt Jones went from clear backup duty in Week 1 to 24 fantasy points against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, breaking a 39-yard touchdown early and totaling 146 scrimmage yards. Morris might not have lost the starting role, but it’s certainly been compromised to some degree. The Patriots’ Dion Lewis continues to matter greatly, even withLeGarrette Blount back and especially in PPR formats. One has to assume that Arizona Cardinals rookie David Johnson earned himself more playing time by scoring twice Sunday, and looking better than Chris Johnson did, not that this was a surprise. Of these aforementioned running backs, in order I’d add David Johnson, then Lewis, Jones and sorry, ignore Williams. Oh, and don’t cut Blount. He will matter. The Patriots just didn’t run Sunday, as Rex Ryan surely noticed.

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</article>Third down: The Jacksonville Jaguars broke many hearts in pools by upending the favored Miami Dolphins, as quarterback Blake Bortles, running back T.J. Yeldon and wide receiver Allen Robinson played key roles. Yeldon and Robinson are the ones to watch in fantasy, but each saw their ownership percentages drop from Week 1, when the team couldn’t move the ball in Carolina. They look better today, eh? Yeldon was presented 25 rushing attempts and while the yards per carry weren’t there and he hasn’t shown breakaway ability yet, the most important thing could be he has little competition. Other Jaguars running backs saw only four carries, and Robinson was the only Jaguar with more receiving targets as well. Robinson was tremendous, toying with the Dolphins' secondary in the first half and finishing with 155 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Penn State product can handle many targets and must prove durability, but I thought about ranking him among my top-20 wide receivers a month ago, and now I’m fully in.

Fourth down: Finally, it sure appears to be time to not only reevaluate the Eagles' offense, but that of the New Orleans Saints. The Tampa Bay Buccaneersembarrassingly couldn’t handle rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota in Week 1, permitting four first-half passing touchdowns. On Sunday, Drew Brees, so reliable and productive his nine seasons in the bayou, was held to 12 fantasy points. I see two clear misconceptions here. One is that Brees has enough weapons despite Jimmy Graham handling tight end duties for the Seahawks. Second-year receiver Brandin Cooks caught five passes for 62 yards, but was expected to perhaps double that production against a sketchy Buccaneers secondary. He sure doesn’t look like a sure-fire top-20 fantasy receiver, yet many simply assumed he had graduated to such a level, despite limited credentials. Don’t cut him, but he’s no longer a must-start. Brees doesn’t have reasonable tight ends to throw to and it remains to be seen if C.J. Spiller can stay healthy and productive. His Sunday debut wasn’t special, as he totaled 26 yards from scrimmage. Also worth noting is that Brees used to statistically feast in home, dome games, but that hasn’t been the case for a while. In fact, last season Brees performed better on the road. I’ll continue to rank him as a top-10 quarterback -- let’s not completely panic -- but don’t simply predict monster outings due to venue anymore. What Brees needs is his weapons to step up, not the joy of throwing in air controlled environments.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Fantasy Fallout: Brady keeps it going in Week 2[/h]Tristan H. Cockcroft, Fantasy

A Buffalo Bills battle? "Bah!" blurts Brady.
With his 28 fantasy points Sunday, New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady has an NFL-leading 55 fantasy points through the season's two weeks.
Only eight quarterbacks since 1960 had more through their team's first two games. Brady was one of them: He scored 62 fantasy points through his Patriots' first two games of the 2011 season, en route to a 352-point campaign, which ranks tied for eighth all-time among quarterbacks. Brady is now the only quarterback during that time span to score as many as 55 fantasy points through two games in multiple seasons.
Four other quarterbacks, like Brady this season, scored exactly 55 through two games. Listed below are the 12 total quarterbacks to score at least that many, with stats showing how their seasons concluded:
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PLAYER	TEAM	YEAR	FPTS THRU 2 G	FPTS ROS	GP ROS
Peyton Manning	DEN	2013	66	340	14
Tom Brady	NE	2011	62	290	14
Charley Johnson	STL	1965	59	86	9
Aaron Rodgers	GB	2013	59	103	7
Michael Vick	PHI	2013	59	38	5
Don Meredith	DAL	1966	58	171	11
Drew Brees	NO	2009	58	222	13
Steve Young	SF	1998	57	296	13
Jim Kelly	BUF	1991	55	192	13
Drew Bledsoe	NE	1997	55	168	14
Donovan McNabb	PHI	2004	55	223	13
Cam Newton	CAR	2011	55	297	14
Brady	NE	2015	55	?	?

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</aside>These 12 who scored 55 or more through two games averaged 14.8 fantasy points per game the rest of those seasons, which, if Brady matches, would give him 262. This group, though, also has been responsible for the first- (Peyton Manning, 2013), sixth- (Steve Young, 1998, tied) and eighth-best (Brady and Cam Newton, 2011) single-season fantasy points campaigns among quarterbacks. Those four quarterbacks averaged 366-point seasons.
By the way, the 15 quarterbacks to manage at least 50 fantasy points in their first two games to begin a season since 2001 averaged 278 fantasy points come season's end, and 302 if you prorate their averages to full 16-game seasons (remember, Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick in 2013, Drew Brees in 2009, Donovan McNabb in 2004 and Robert Griffin III in 2012, all missed at least one game in those seasons). So it's awfully tough to dispute Brady's 300-fantasy-point chances, or his top-five fantasy quarterback potential going forward.
Incidentally, let's not forget how difficult this most recent Brady matchup appeared on paper, a road game against Rex Ryan's stingy Bills defense. By scoring 28 fantasy points against Buffalo, Brady continued his career mastery of them: It represented the fifth time in his career that Brady managed at least 25 fantasy points in a game against them, more than any other quarterback has against that team in history.
In fairness to both sides, though, Brady also has been held to eight fantasy points or fewer by the Bills six times during his career, including in two of his past four games against them. That said, both of those past two stinkers came in Week 17, once in 2013 (8) and again in 2014 (3).
[h=2]Good first and second impressions?[/h]Coming off an eye-popping, 24-fantasy-point NFL debut, rookie Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota on Sunday faced a steeper challenge in Game 2, battling a reputable Cleveland Browns secondary. And while Mariota's 15-point fantasy performance paled in comparison to Week 1, it gave him an impressive 39 points through two games.
That two-game pace puts Mariota on track for a whopping 312 fantasy points come season's end, and it puts him within 161 points of becoming only the seventh rookie quarterback in history to score at least 200 fantasy points. These are the previous six:
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PLAYER	TEAM	YEAR	FPTS	G	FPTS THRU 2 G
Cam Newton	CAR	2011	352	16	55
Robert Griffin	WAS	2012	303	15	54
Andrew Luck	IND	2012	264	16	26
Russell Wilson	SEA	2012	259	16	20
Jim Kelly	BUF	1986	205	16	32
Peyton Manning	IND	1998	200	16	13

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</aside>[h=2]Second-round stinker[/h]
The future was looking bright -- and arguably still does -- for sophomoreCincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill. From Week 10 through the conclusion of the 2014 season, Hill scored 99 fantasy points, tied for seventh-most among running backs. That helped earn him a No. 17 overall ADP (average draft position) this preseason, 10th among running backs. Those who selected him were then rewarded with an 18-fantasy-point Week 1, tied for fifth best at the position.
Entering Week 2, Hill again had the look of an RB1, easily earning a consensus top-10 ranking. He was to battle the San Diego Chargers, who afforded 27 total fantasy points to Detroit Lions running backs in their season opener.
Hill's final tally: 10 carries, 11 total touches, minus-1 fantasy points.
By scoring in the red, Hill earned a dubious honor: He became the first player selected in the first two rounds -- that's the top 20 picks overall -- on average in ESPN drafts to register a negative point total in a game in that same season since Randy Moss, who scored the same minus-1 during Week 14 of the 2009 season. (Incidentally, fellow top-20 pick Steve Slaton scored minus-1 just six weeks before that in the same season.)
Expanding the scope to zero-fantasy-point-or-worse performances during a top-20-ADP season, there have been considerably more such examples just in the past three seasons alone. To help encourage -- or perhaps discourage? -- Hill's owners, here's a quick look at those individual examples, as well as their seasonal outputs:
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PLAYER	TEAM	YEAR	ADP	0 FPTS WEEK	G	SEASONAL FPTS
Jamaal Charles RB	KC	2014	3	2	15	197
Calvin Johnson WR	DET	2014	7	5	13	149
Jimmy Graham TE	NO	2014	10	7, 13	16	137
Doug Martin RB	TB	2014	14	1	11	58
A.J. Green WR	CIN	2014	16	2, 16	13	132
Brandon Marshall WR	CHI	2014	19	3	13	113
Arian Foster RB	HOU	2013	2	9	8	81
C.J. Spiller RB	BUF	2013	7	3	15	110
A.J. Green WR	CIN	2013	15	11	16	203
Steven Jackson RB	ATL	2013	16	8	12	105
Arian Foster RB	HOU	2012	1	16	16	248
Ray Rice RB	BAL	2012	2	17	16	207
Chris Johnson RB	TEN	2012	8	5	16	162
Maurice Jones-Drew RB	JAC	2012	9	7	6	56
Larry Fitzgerald WR	ARI	2012	11	2, 14	16	99
Jimmy Graham TE	NO	2012	20	5	15	144

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</aside>[h=2]Miscellany[/h]

• Since Week 11 of 2013, a span of 25 games, Antonio Brown has scored 588 fantasy points in PPR leagues (ESPN standard scoring plus one point per reception). That's 70 more fantasy points than any other player has during that span. Since 1960, Jerry Rice is the only wide receiver to score more fantasy points over a 25-game span, having scored 620 during such a 25-game span from Week 10 of the 1994 season through Week 1 of the 1996 season. Brown's 398 standard-scoring fantasy points are 12th most at any position during that same time span, and are 67 more than any other wide receiver.
  
• New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.'s 20 fantasy points on Sunday represented a pleasant bounce-back from his disappointing, four-point Week 1 performance. But perhaps more important, they gave him 221 fantasy points in his first 14 NFL games, the most by any wide receiver since 1960.
  
• Would you believe that Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald's 29 fantasy points Sunday tied his previous career high, set in Week 17 of the 2007 season?
  
• Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski scored 17 fantasy points Sunday to give him 44 through his first two games this season. Only one tight end since 1960 scored more fantasy points through his team's first two games: Ben Coates, who had 50 for the 1994 Patriots. Unfortunately, Coates cooled significantly from that point forward, scoring only 99 fantasy points in his next 14 contests.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Should you trade or hold DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson?[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

Keep, trade or wait? That's the question on a lot of fantasy football owners' minds when it comes to what to do with some of the upper-tier talents who have thus far been major letdowns in the 2015 season. Should these owners keep the player in question, trade him or wait a bit before making that decision?
To help with this quandary, let's take a look at what the metrics and game tapes have to say about the two running backs who may be the most disappointing of all -- DeMarco Murray and C.J. Anderson -- and formulate an answer based on that. As it turns out, it makes sense to consider a trade for one of them, while holding the other.
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---

[h=2]DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles[/h]Murray's first two games in a Philadelphia uniform have been a disaster. He has racked up only 11 rushing yards on 21 carries, a pace that would equate to less than 100 yards over the course of an entire season.
What makes this even more distressing is those numbers were posted in a Chip Kelly offense that has a long history of producing elite ground games. How could a combination like this go so wrong? In the case of the battle against Dallas, it boiled down to the Cowboys having zero respect for the Eagles' passing game.
For much of that contest, the Dallas defensive linemen went straight upfield at the snap. They weren't concerned about gap control, but rather concentrated solely on flying past the Eagles' offensive linemen and disrupting any rush attempt.
Philadelphia's zone blocking often didn't keep Dallas defenders out of the backfield, and it led to the Eagles' offense posting an abysmal 18.8 percent mark in my good blocking rate metric (GBR) that measures how often an offensive blocking wall gives its ball carriers good run blocking (which is very roughly defined as not allowing the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). The league average in that metric in Week 1 was 41 percent, so this effort was far below even acceptable metric standards.
What might be just as troubling are the limited avenues the Eagles have to stop this type of defensive strategy. Teams with highly adaptive run-blocking systems would trap defensive linemen in these situations, but that tactic is not widely utilized by this club. One reason for that is the only back they have whose skill set fits with a quick-hitting trap play is change of pace/third-down back Darren Sproles.
Another counter to up-the-gut pressure is to use perimeter rushing plays, something Philadelphia implemented with some success later in the Dallas game, but which is also a tactic that isn't in Murray's or Ryan Mathews' wheelhouse.


The Cowboys were willing to go all out to stop the rush because they seemed to have no fear that the Eagles' wide receivers were going to beat them deep. That is born out bySam Bradford rating dead last among qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR on vertical passes (defined as aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield). His 1.0 mark in this metric is so bad it means that 99 percent of all other vertical Total QBR performances during the 10 years that this metric has been tracked have graded out better than Bradford's.
This really isn't a Bradford issue, as none of Philadelphia's wide receivers have the kind of downfield speed to tear the top off of a defense the way DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin were able to do for the Eagles in the past two seasons. Kelly's system is designed to overcome that potential personnel weakness by forcing defenses to concentrate so heavily on stopping the rushing attack that it leaves one-on-one coverage situations on the outside. Since the Cowboys' defensive linemen were able to keep the ground game in check largely on their own, or with assistance from the linebackers, their secondary was able to direct most of its efforts to taking away vertical passes.
What this all means is that Dallas may have provided the league with the blueprint for stifling the Chip Kelly offense. Philadelphia will come up other countermeasures to improve their run blocking, and they do have some seemingly favorable matchups coming up (Washington in Week 4, New Orleans in Week 5), but the chances are pretty good this will continue to be a very volatile situation for fantasy owners for the rest of the season.
Bottom line: It's never a good idea to sell low, but if a solid trade option is available (think starting-caliber running back), now might be the time to take it.

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[h=2]C.J. Anderson, RB, Denver Broncos[/h]Anderson led all running backs in fantasy points scored in Weeks 9-17 last year, but after two games in the 2015 campaign, he has a meager five fantasy points to his credit.
As bad as that point total looks, upon closer examination it turns out there are reasons to keep the faith in Anderson and the Broncos' rushing attack.
The primary element here is the 40 percent GBR Denver has posted in its first two games. That is actually a higher mark than the 34.1 percent GBR this team posted during the course of the 2014 season, and is a very good sign, given that the Broncos' offensive line has four new starters.
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</article>Where the production drop-off comes in is via the Broncos' 6.8-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges a ball carrier's production on rushing plays with good blocking. That is 2.4 yards lower than Denver's 9.2 GBYPA last season, which ranked third best in the league.
Some of that may be due to Anderson's toe injury, a main factor in determining his rest-of-season value. With the Broncos playing the Thursday night game in Week 2, this means that Anderson will potentially get 10 days worth of rest to heal that toe.
Another positive element is that Denver head coach Gary Kubiak is bound and determined to get the ground game in gear. Getting this offense away from being so Peyton Manning-centric is a primary goal for the Broncos, and they are not going to abandon that idea unless it becomes absolutely necessary.
Bottom line: Barring the toe injury turning out to be worse than is being reported, there are too many factors here pointing towards a turnaround. Those fantasy owners with Anderson on their roster should keep him. Those who don't have Anderson can aim to acquire him for dimes on the dollar.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Free-agent finds for Week 4: Tyrod Taylor, Andy Dalton, Karlos Williams lead the way[/h][h=1]Field Yates, ESPN Insider[/h]
The NFL season is flying by, as 30 teams will be one quarter of the way through their regular-season game schedule by the time this column runs next week. But it's important to remember that, no matter how fast it moves, it's a long season. Consider this: At this point of the 2014 season, Odell Beckham Jr. had not yet appeared in an NFL game. He went on to have one of the most remarkable seasons for any rookie in NFL history and was on a higher percentage of championship winning rosters than any other player in ESPN.com leagues last year. There's plenty of time for your roster to turn it around, some of which can be accomplished through some fine-tuning.
So let's dive right into our Week 4 waiver-wire adds. The usual parameters are in place: players owned in less than 50 percent of leagues are eligible for this list and players who have been previously mentioned will be italicized.
[h=2]Top pickups[/h]Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills (44.4 percent): This will almost assuredly be the last week for Taylor on this list, so let's make this count. Taylor is a top-three quarterback through three games. He has thrown seven touchdowns, has 32 rushing yards per game and averaged 26 throws per game. This doesn't feel like an overreaction: he has earned a role as a weekly starter.
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (39.4 percent): When examining viable quarterbacks to pick up and use as your bye week fill-in, Dalton stacks up. But he also has shown enough in three weeks to suggest he could be a regular starter too. He has averaged 23.0 fantasy points per game through three starts and has one of the best young receivers in football to throw it to.
Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo Bills (23.6 percent): The following is a list of players who have scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first three weeks of the NFL season: Karlos Williams. That's it. He's also averaging a ridiculous 7.8 yards per carry. All LeSean McCoy owners should want Williams as a handcuff, but I think he'll have value even for those who don't own McCoy.
Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens (44.2 percent): Remember, not only are there a ton of injuries to quarterbacks right now, but bye weeks begin this week (New England and Tennessee are off in Week 4). Flacco has consecutive 20-point games and a favorable matchup this week against the Steelers. To boot, he's fifth in the NFL with 126 attempts through three games. This offense has leaned on the pass with its current downtrodden running game.


Rishard Matthews, WR, Miami Dolphins (16.1 percent): After trading away Mike Wallace this offseason, it looked as though Kenny Stills would emerge as Miami's deep threat. Thus far, that has been Matthews, who has the team's longest catch in each of the past two games. He has five touchdowns in his past 24 receptions. He's a big-play wideout who has averaged just below eight targets per game this season.
Bilal Powell, RB, New York Jets (24.4 percent): Despite the fact thatChris Ivory was active in Week 3, he didn't play a single snap for the Jets. It was instead Powell who carried the heavy load. He earned 17 total touches (including seven catches). He's a usable flex option if Ivory sits in Week 4 and has value as a handcuff going forward.
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders (19.8 percent): The offense in Oakland suddenly looks promising with Carr at the helm. He has consecutive 300-yard games after just one 300-yard passing effort as a rookie. With a young nucleus of talent around him, including wide receiver Amari Cooper, Carr is already a strong second quarterback in a two-quarterback league and a possible starter as bye weeks pick up.
[h=2]Deeper-league adds[/h]Lance Dunbar, RB, Dallas Cowboys (13.1 percent): He's really a wide receiver -- at least usage-wise -- but for fantasy he remains a running back by position. And with 10 more catches in Week 3, Dunbar continues to show he's a viable PPR option. He has more receptions (21) than Matt Forte did through three games last season. Remember, Forte set the NFL single-season record for most receptions by a running back with 102.

Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans (40.2 percent): Blue had a monster Week 3, finishing with 139 yards on 31 carries and a trip to the end zone. ButArian Foster could be back as soon as Week 4 and Blue had previously not separated himself from the pack of Texans reserve running backs. He's still a worthwhile add in deeper leagues, especially for Foster owners.


Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (19.4 percent): Jones is something of a touchdown-maker, as 20 percent of his past 65 catches have finished in the end zone. He had 94 yards in Week 3 (plus a touchdown, of course). He's the No. 2 wideout in an offense that is humming right now.
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo Bills (14.0 percent): The Buffalo theme continues. Clay is an excellent athlete who can be used all over the formation. For Rob Gronkowski owners, or others who will need a tight end in the coming weeks because of a bye, Clay is a name to know after touchdowns in two straight games.
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</article>Rueben Randle, WR, New York Giants (28.0 percent): Talent has never been the question for Randle, but production has been. He had a monster Week 3 (116 yards and a score), but his outlook could change upon Victor Cruz's impending return (which sounds as though it could be this week). Nonetheless, he's a deeper-league consideration given his ability and the quarterback throwing it to him.
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle Seahawks (0.2 percent): Rawls impressed in the preseason, though many presumed that Fred Jackson would step into a larger role if injury kept Marshawn Lynch from playing or severely limited him. Well, with Lynch rushing just five times in Week 3, Rawls flourished with 16 carries for 104 yards. He's a physical runner who is certainly addable for Lynch owners.

More names worthy of deep-league consideration: Antonio Andrews, RB, Tennessee Titans; Charles Sims, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Jonas Gray, RB, Miami Dolphins; Michael Vick, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (two-QB leagues);Allen Hurns, WR Jacksonville Jaguars; Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts;Khiry Robinson, RB, New Orleans Saints; Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Fantasy 32: Key Week 4 tips for every team[/h]Mike Clay, Fantasy Football

Below are notes covering each of the NFL's 32 teams. Use these tidbits to make the best waiver-wire, trade and lineup decisions this week. Be sure to check back each week of the season for a new version of the Fantasy 32.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Atlanta Falcons -- The breakout player of Week 3, Devonta Freeman, put up 141 yards and three touchdowns on 30 carries. Freeman currently sits as Fantasy's No. 2 scoring running back and the four touchdowns he had are legit. Freeman paces the NFL with a 3.1 rushing OTD, which, in a nutshell, is a metric that weighs every carry and converts it into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. That's the good news. The concern is Freeman's 3.5 yards per carry and the eventual return of Tevin Coleman -- the team's third-round draft pick in May. There's a good chance Atlanta utilizes a committee attack, leaving both Coleman and Freeman on the flex radar most weeks. Explore selling high here, but note that Freeman will see another big workload this week against Houston.
New England Patriots -- Speaking of rushing OTD, LeGarrette Blount is third overall in the category despite sitting out all of Week 1 and most of Week 2. In Week 3, Blount carried the ball four times from the Jaguars' 1-yard line, scoring on three of the tries. He added carries from the 3- and 6-yard lines in the game. Blount's role will be heavily dependent on the team's weekly game plan as well as game flow, but he'll be a worthwhile flex option most weeks.
Three-WR offenses
Through three weeks of play, four teams have had a third wide receiver on the field for at least 90 percent of their pass plays. They are the Green Bay Packers(99 percent), Miami Dolphins (94 percent), Philadelphia Eagles (93 percent) and San Diego Chargers (91 percent).
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Packers -- Randall Cobb, Davante Adams and James Jones handle a majority of the snaps for Green Bay, but don't overlook the future impact of Ty Montgomery, especially with Adams dealing with a high ankle sprain. The rookie was on the field for 34 of the team's 38 pass plays Monday night and will remain extremely busy as long as Adams is out. He's a worthwhile waiver add, and an intriguing flier in DFS tournaments against San Francisco this week.
Dolphins -- Although they rank highly in this category, they roll with a bit of a committee behind slot man Jarvis Landry. Landry has run 124 of a possible 135 pass routes this season. Early-season breakout Rishard Matthews (90) along with Greg Jennings (81), Kenny Stills (68) and DeVante Parker (39) have also been busy. Landry and Matthews are must-owns at this point, and Parker remains a worthwhile bench stash. A huge chunk of it came in garbage time, but Parker set a career high by working 40 snaps in Week 3. Jennings and Stills can be dropped.
Eagles -- With their No. 1 target, Jordan Matthews, glued to the slot, and having scaled back Brent Celek's playing time, no team has utilized it's "11" package -- one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers -- more than the Eagles this season. Matthews (108 routes) and Nelson Agholor (103) are the only every-down players here, with Riley Cooper (59), Josh Huff (46) and Miles Austin (34) mixed in occasionally. Incredibly, Agholor has seen only 11 targets despite his significant role. He's an intriguing buy-low target.


Chargers -- San Diego finished third in this category last season and it's no surprise that it's continued after the acquisition of Stevie Johnson.Keenan Allen has been on the field for 119 of the team's 120 pass plays. Johnson (113) and Malcom Floyd(112) have been nearly as busy. Note that San Diego may turn to more two-tight end sets once Ladarius Green(concussion) and Antonio Gates(suspension) return.
Two-WR offenses
On the flip side, the San Francisco 49ers (38 percent) and Carolina Panthers (41 percent) are the only teams to have had a third wide receiver on the field on fewer than half of their pass plays.
49ers -- San Francisco ranked first in this category during the preseason, so this is hardly a surprise. Anquan Boldin is the team's only full-time wide receiver, having run 94 of 111 possible pass routes this season. Torrey Smith (69 routes) is inexplicably barely ahead of Quinton Patton (49) in the category. None of these players are exciting weekly plays, but Boldin is in the flex conversation and Smith is a boom/bust WR4. Patton and Bruce Ellington should be on waivers.
Panthers -- A product of the team's porous wide receiver unit, Ed Dickson (119 snaps) and Mike Tolbert (71) have played a significant role this season. Philly Brown paces the team's wide receivers in pass routes (97), but has been targeted only five times. Ted Ginn Jr. (82 routes) easily leads the wide receivers with 20 targets. Devin Funchess (39 routes) remains a must-stash in most formats. It's only a matter of time before he emerges with a full-time role similar to the one that allowed Kelvin Benjamin to post a league-high 23 end zone targets last season.
Indianapolis Colts -- Frank Gore is an intriguing buy-low option right now. The veteran quietly sits 16th in fantasy points among running backs. Having scored twice in Week 3, Gore is on pace to reach double digits in the category. Considering Ahmad Bradshaw scored eight touchdowns in 10 games last year, it's not as crazy as it sounds, especially if the Colts' offense continues trending in the right direction. Gore has touched the ball 31 times the past two weeks. He'll certainly be in the RB1 conversation against the Jaguars in Week 4.


Detroit Lions -- Having called 138 passes and 47 runs this season, the Lions are the league's pass-heaviest team. Having yet to win a game this season, game flow is a factor here for Detroit, but so is offensive philosophy. If we adjust for said game flow, the Lions have called pass at a rate 7 percentage points above expected (or what the league average team calls). That's the league's fourth-highest mark. It's hard to expect Detroit's pass-heavy nature to change with Seattle and Arizona up next on the docket.
Kansas City Chiefs -- Chris Conley is a name that should be on your radar. Conley, the Chiefs' 2015 third-round pick, had played only five snaps during the team's first two games. After sitting out all but five snaps during the first three quarters on Monday night, Conley replaced Albert Wilson and handled 29 of the team's 30 fourth-quarter snaps. Conley was targeted only once, but checks in at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, and it shouldn't be long until he's an every-down player. The Chiefs' conservative offense will limit his upside, but he's intriguing enough to now consider for your bench in deep leagues.
Denver Broncos -- Once adjusted for game flow, only the Patriots have called a pass-heavier game than the Broncos this season. Despite sitting at 3-0 and having led throughout a generous portion of those games, Denver is the league's No. 4 pass-heaviest team overall. The franchise's hiring of coach Gary Kubiak was expected to mean a heavier reliance on the run, but instead it has been all about Peyton Manning. After being shut out in the touchdown department in Week 1, Denver has found the end zone six times in the past two weeks. This is promising news for Manning owners and certainly helps solidify Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders as high-floor weekly plays.
Minnesota Vikings -- On the other hand, the Vikings have called 86 passes and 84 runs this season. That 51 percent mark ranks them as the NFL's run-heaviest offense. With Adrian Peterson back, offensive coordinator Norv Turner has called a very run-heavy game. Back-to-back comfortable home wins against Detroit and San Diego have allowed the team to lean heavily on Peterson in the second half of those games. Peterson remains an elite weekly fantasy play, butTeddy Bridgewater is not getting near enough volume to make for a worthwhile bench stash. The future is bright for the second-year quarterback, but two touchdowns in three games is not cutting it.
Arizona Cardinals -- In terms of pass/run rate this season, the Cardinals are less than 1 percentage point behind Minnesota for the standing as the league's run-heaviest team. Interestingly, the Cardinals have actually called a pass-first offense, but game flow has allowed them to lean heavily on the run game in the second half. The Cardinals have called 92 passes and 87 runs. They're not going to sustain their current touchdown production (4.3 offensive touchdowns per game), so this is promising news for Carson Palmer's fantasy stock. He can afford to lose some touchdown production as he'll inevitably need to throw more in competitive games.
Chicago Bears -- Once adjusted for game flow, the Bears are the league's run-heaviest team. The Bears have called pass on 55 percent of their offensive plays, which is the league's sixth-lowest mark. Of course, the Bears have trailed early and often this season, losing by eight to Green Bay and 25 to Arizona at home. In Week 3, they were shut out 26-0 by Seattle, but still called more runs (24) than passes (22). Coach John Fox had a history of utilizing run-heavy offenses prior to the Peyton Manning era in Denver. It's fair to say Chicago will lean heavily onMatt Forte and its running game throughout the 2015 season. Forte is on pace for his first 300-carry season since 2008. Even in Chicago's despondent offense, Forte is a high-floor RB1 play.
Oakland Raiders -- Amari Cooper's career is off to a great start, but there is one bizarre aspect of his usage that's worth some examination. Of the 28 targets he's seen so far, zero have come inside the opponent's 25-yard line. And that stat refers to where Cooper was on the field when targeted, not the line of scrimmage. Cooper did score on a catch-and-run from 42 yards out, but he's going to struggle to score more than three or four touchdowns this season if he doesn't start generating more usage near the goal line. Regardless, Cooper is a solid WR2 option in a plus matchup against Chicago this week.


St. Louis Rams -- The Rams' defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 82 percent of their passes this season. Although an alarming number, it's grossly misleading. For starters, the combination of Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick andKirk Cousins have averaged 5.8 air yards per throw (aka. average depth of throw). That's actually lower thanAlex Smith's league-low 6.0 mark last season. Additionally, the Rams' opposition has combined for zero drops, one throwaway, one batted pass and zero incompletions as a result of a hit on the passer. Those figures are sure to regress. The Rams' defense has intercepted two passes while allowing only two touchdowns through the air. In terms of fantasy points allowed, the unit is third-best in the NFL. Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer won't be in for a walk in the park when these two clubs face off in Week 4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Vincent Jackson paces the NFL with six end-zone targets, but -- and tell me if you've heard this one before -- it hasn't led to much fantasy production. Jackson has racked up 19 targets, but it has resulted in only 145 yards and one score on nine receptions. Sporting a 13.9 average depth of target, Jackson will continue to hit on the occasional big play, but he will now settle in as Jameis Winston's clear second target behind Mike Evans. Considering Tampa Bay's offensive struggles, Jackson has the looks of a fringe WR3 option.
Cincinnati Bengals -- Despite operating the same run-heavy offense as they did in 2014, the Bengals have scored eight of their 11 offensive touchdowns through the air this season. Last season, they scored only half of their touchdowns via the pass. Considering the team's talented one-two punch inJeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, it's fair to expect that mark to level out. Andy Dalton has been terrific out of the gate, but the 100-to-72 TD-to-INT mark he entered the season with is no fluke. He's an obvious sell-high option.
Baltimore Ravens -- Through four weeks of the 2014 season, Steve Smith Sr. was Fantasy's No. 4 scoring wide receiver. He ranked 43rd and scored only three touchdowns the rest of the season. This year, he's fantasy's No. 7 scoring wideout through three weeks. The Ravens are in the bottom third of the NFL in touchdowns and trailing in the second half has led to them being the league's No. 5 pass-heaviest team. Expect some regression to kick in here in the coming weeks. Rookie Breshad Perriman's impending return will cost Smith valuable targets as well.
Buffalo Bills -- Offenses have called pass an NFL-high 77 percent of the time against the Bills this season. Buffalo is 2-1 and led throughout wins over Indianapolis and Miami, so some of this is game flow-related. Still, it has led to Buffalo surrendering 32 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, the second-highest mark in the league. The Bills have a quality defense, so that number figures to drop against lesser competition, but it's an early sign that opponents will be forced to throw the ball early and often when Buffalo is on the slate. Eli Manning is in town this week and is a strong bet to pace the position in pass attempts. He's a sneaky bet for 300 yards and two scores.
New Orleans Saints -- Through three weeks, the Saints are allowing a league-worst 25 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Saints' defense has yet to record an interception, but has surrendered six passing touchdowns. Cam Newton and Carson Palmer both put up 300-plus yards and two-plus scores against the Saints, and Jameis Winston threw for 207 yards and a touchdown in his second career start. Plus, Winston and Newton each scrambled for a touchdown versus New Orleans. It may not be a bad idea to stack Brandon Weeden with Terrance Williams or Jason Witten in a tournament this week.
Cleveland Browns -- When the Browns claimed Robert Turbin off waivers from the Seahawks earlier this month, the immediate reaction from many on the scene in Cleveland was that he had a good chance of taking over as the team's lead back once he was healthy. After three weeks of underwhelming production from Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson, that now seems like a very good possibility. Crowell has managed only 128 yards on 37 carries (3.5 YPC) and Johnson has put up 68 yards on 23 tries (3.0 YPC). It's possible the duo gets it turned around in the next week or two (at San Diego, at Baltimore), but Turbin is worth stashing in deeper leagues in the meantime. There isn't a massive amount of upside here, but the Browns' run-first philosophy would allow fringe RB2 production.
Dallas Cowboys -- Joseph Randle scored three times in Week 3 and seems to have a clear hold of Dallas' lead back gig. The 23-year-old has handled 64 percent of the team's designed runs, which is well ahead of both Darren McFadden (29 percent) and Lance Dunbar (3 percent). Randle's lack of involvement as a receiver (three targets) is a determinant to his upside, but volume won't be a short-term issue with Tony Romo on the shelf. Randle is safe as a borderline RB1 during the next month or so, but keep in mind that Christine Michael is lurking and will eventually get a look.
Houston Texans -- Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer have unsurprisingly struggled this season, but that hasn't stopped DeAndre Hopkins from producing WR1 numbers. Hopkins sits 10th at the position in fantasy points, having put up 253 yards and three touchdowns on 22 receptions. As long as he continues seeing 30 percent of the team's targets, Hopkins will produce at a high level, but keep in mind that a ton of regression is about to kick in in several areas of this offense. The Texans are averaging 80 offensive plays per game, which is well above their 2015 average of 66 and the league average of 64. The Texans have called a pass on 63 percent of their offensive snaps this year after sitting at 52 percent last season. Arian Foster's impending return will mean a heavier reliance on the run. Hopkins should be viewed as a fringe WR1, but that's his ceiling in this offense.


Jacksonville Jaguars --The Jags may have upset the Dolphins in Week 2, but don't be fooled, because their offense is still struggling badly. The offense has scored a grand total of five touchdowns, two of which came in garbage time against New England in Week 3. Rookie tailback T.J. Yeldon sits ninth in the NFL with 48 carries, but he has yet to find the end zone. Yeldon has been slightly more effective than his 3.2 YPC suggests, but he's rarely going to find running lanes or scoring opportunities as long as Blake Bortles continues to struggle. Jacksonville has run the ball only once inside the opponent's 5-yard line this season.
New York Giants -- Rueben Randle turned a corner by hauling in all seven of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown in Week 3, but it's probably too little, too late. After missing nearly a full year due to injury, Victor Cruz is expected to return to the lineup against Buffalo this week. Considering Randle's inconsistent play, Cruz will be in for a massive role in an offense that relies heavily on three-wide receiver sets. We obviously don't know just yet if Cruz can return to his All-Pro form, but Randle will certainly be in for a reduced role while we find out. Randle should not be in starting lineups this week.
New York Jets -- The Jets' defense has allowed four touchdowns this season, which is tied with the Cardinals and Broncos for fewest in the league. After holding the Browns and Colts to one score, the Jets allowed two touchdowns to the Eagles in Week 3. Tight ends have scored only eight total fantasy points against the Jets this season, which trails only the Ravens (three) for fewest in the NFL. The Jets head to Miami this week to take on a struggling Dolphins offense. It's fair to say the likes of Ryan Tannehill and Jordan Cameron should be faded in DFS.
Pittsburgh Steelers -- Le'Veon Bell returned from a two-game suspension in Week 3 and one thing is for sure: There is no backfield controversy. Bell was on the field for 54 of the team's 57 offensive snaps. He ran the ball 19 times and was targeted on seven occasions. DeAngelo Williams, meanwhile, carried the ball on one of four snaps. The loss of Ben Roethlisberger for four to six weeks will certainly hurt this team's efficiency, but Bell will be a weekly candidate for 25 touches. Through three weeks, the Steelers have run the ball an NFL-high nine times inside the opponent's 5-yard line.
Seattle Seahawks -- Despite the offseason additions of Jimmy Graham andTyler Lockett, the Seahawks' offense sits tied with Chicago and St. Louis for dead last in the NFL with four touchdowns in three games. This is a Seattle offense that ranked above the league average in touchdowns each of Russell Wilson's first three seasons, but Sunday's one-touchdown performance in a dream Week 3 home bout with a struggling Bears defense is cause for some slight concern. It's not time to hit the panic button just yet, but we'll need to re-evaluate if Seattle can't get on track this week against a Detroit offense that has allowed at least one passing and one rushing score in each of its first three games.
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</article>Washington Redskins -- In last week's version of this article, we strongly urged you to slow your roll on the Matt Jones hype, as (A) this was a team that is going to trail quite often this season; and (B) Chris Thompson was sure to be heavily involved in obvious passing/comeback situations. That logic proved sound Thursday night, as Jones managed 11 carries and no targets on 23 snaps. Thompson, meanwhile, was on the field for 35 snaps and scored more fantasy points than Odell Beckham Jr. There is a silver lining here, however, for Jones owners. Jones' chief competition for early-down work, Alfred Morris, played only 12 snaps and has struggled to elude tacklers this season (his rate of 0.04 forced missed tackles per attempt is lowest in the NFL). Jones has now played more snaps than Morris in back-to-back games and seems to have a leg up on the veteran for touches. It's fair to worry about Jones' fantasy ceiling, but he's playing well enough to warrant RB2 consideration most weeks.
Tennessee Titans - Tennessee is a nice place to look for sell-high and buy-low options. Kendall Wright has scored twice in three games, which puts him on pace for double-digit touchdowns this season. Considering his role has changed very little from years past, when he managed 12 scores in three seasons, there's good reason to expect regression. Wright entered the season with 10 career end zone targets and has seen only one this season. On the other hand, Dorial Green-Beckham has scored on two of his five targets and is averaging 0.40 fantasy points per snap in non-PPR leagues, which trails only Julio Jones for best at the position. Only 11 players have exceeded his three end zone targets. Green-Beckham obviously won't produce fantasy-relevant numbers on his current nine pass routes per game, but with only Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter blocking him from a full-time gig, it really should only be a matter of time. Standing 6-6, 237 pounds and being a major threat at the goal line, Green-Beckham should be on the end of your bench in most formats. Keep in mind that the Titans are tied for fourth in the league with 11 offensive touchdowns.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Love/Hate for Week 4: A Giant letdown[/h]Matthew Berry, Fantasy

(Note: This is a long intro, even for me. I think you'll enjoy, but you've been warned. If you just want to get to the advice, click here.)
I didn't know what to do.
It's been a week now, and frankly, I still don't know what I should have done. I give you guys advice every week, so maybe you can help me out on this one and tell me what I should have done. Because I didn't know what to do. That's what I kept thinking.
Hold that thought for a second while we go back to last spring.
As soon as the NFL schedule came out, I knew. A quick glance and I immediately circled Sept. 24. Washington Redskins at New York Giants. Thursday night. The stars had aligned.
I have a great job, but as with any job, there are quirks. Among them is I'm on TV in Bristol, Connecticut, every Sunday of the NFL season until 1 p.m. ET, or kickoff of the early games. Which means it's almost impossible to get to an NFL game in person on a Sunday. Plus, I record a podcast every Monday morning at 10 a.m. ET in which I discuss all the games with Field Yates. I have to watch football on Sunday, as that'll be the only chance I get to see those games before the podcast.
So if I want to go to an NFL game, it has to be Thursday or Monday night. And ideally, it needs to be close: I have podcasts and TV shows that I do on both Tuesdays and Fridays, so I have to be able to come back home after the game that night. So I don't go to a lot of games, but as I glanced, there it was.
Washington at New York. As longtime readers know, I am a Washington fan, as is my 11-year-old. We have twin 3-year-old daughters at home who demand a lot of attention (sometimes at our youngest son's expense), so anytime I can do something for the 11-year-old, I try very hard to do it. Plus, my 15-year-old loves the Giants. And here they were, playing on a night I could go to the game, in a stadium within driving distance, on a night early in the season (good weather and neither team out of it yet!).


When my 17-year-old said he wanted to go, too, I was over the moon and quickly made arrangements for the four of us to go. You see, we share custody of the boys with their father, there are three nights of the week during football season I have to work until midnight or later, and two of the boys are teenagers now. Like most teenagers, they have active social lives. Sometimes they need money, sometimes they need a ride, but generally speaking, my time with them is limited to a few quick bites at dinner as they shovel food in their mouths before heading back to their phones or out to meet friends. They're really good kids but, like I said, teenagers.
It's rare to get all three boys to agree to do the same thing, and the oldest will be going to college soon. Although this isn't the last thing I'll get to do with all three boys as kids, it's pretty close.
I believe in the idea that there are moments in time that are important and need to be grabbed on to tightly and held. This was one of those to me.
So I worked crazy late Monday through Wednesday, pretaping some things, advancing the column and such, to make Thursday clear so we could leave early for the game. Had the parking pass, got the tickets, the whole deal.
It is with four big smiles we jump into the car and head to MetLife Stadium.
As we walk through the parking lot to the game, the 11-year-old turns to me and asks, "Do you think anyone will recognize you?"
Understand that he is asking this with fear, not hope. My boys don't like that I'm on TV and occasionally get recognized. The older ones are used to it and the youngest gets annoyed by it, but if any was to have his way, no one would ever recognize me. To them, all it means is more time they have to stand around bored while I take a picture, hear about someone's team, shake hands or give advice.
They also know that this is the drill. I try to be quick about it, but I believe that this stuff is really important. Many times in my life, I've approached someone I'm a fan of and walked away really happy; other times, I've left really turned off. I never want someone to approach me and walk away upset, so if someone who is nice, polite and genuine walks up, I'm always happy to take a picture, shake a hand, record a video for their league, whatever they want. You bet. Always.
The kids don't like it on this night, but they deal, and it happens a few times on the way to our seats. Whatever. It's quick, the kids are happy, we are all together and then we take our seats.
We have been sitting for less than a minute when I hear them.
They are a group of young guys, early 20s, I'd guess, and drunk. They are sitting in the row directly behind us and they start speaking ... loudly.
"Yeah, I got Jordan Reed going for fantasy tonight."
"Matt Jones sucks, man. Why'd Berry tell me to pick him up?"
"Dude, you read Matthew Berry? I like Karabell."
It's very weird. And I don't know what to do.
They are not addressing me or talking to me. They are talking about me as if I am not there.
Do I interrupt them? "Uh, hey guys, couldn't help but overhear you talking about me ..." So weird and awkward. I haven't turned around; I haven't looked at them yet; I can't tell if they are fans or just trying to get a rise out of me.
They keep going.
"You sure that's Berry?"
"Oh yeah, that's him, look how bald he is."
"Yeah, Yahoo! is so much better."
And so on. Over and over again, they are talking to one another, in loud voices, about me, about fantasy, about things I have written or said, insulting me, cracking one another up.
I don't know what to do. My kids are glancing at me now. "They're talking about you," my 11-year-old whispers. "I know," I say. "Just ignore it. You want something to drink?" He just shakes his head no. He is confused by this and keeps looking back at them. He's 11. He doesn't understand why people are talking about his stepfather like this. I don't have an answer. The 15- and 17-year-olds just shoot me a look, shaking their heads.
And I don't know what to do.
If I turn around and acknowledge them, say, "Hey guys, do you mind, I'm with my kids, could you knock it off?" Maybe they say OK, but maybe they know they have gotten to me and that'll make it worse. They certainly haven't seemed like fans or like reasonable people. They are young, they are drunk and they are Giants fans. My 11-year-old is in a Redskins jersey, and they have referenced I'm a Washington fan.
I keep ignoring, hoping they will eventually tire out. But no, fueled by bro-style competition and (I'm guessing) alcohol, they keep trying to one-up one another. On and on, throughout the entire first quarter. There is no end in sight as they keep talking about me, but never to me.
I don't know what to do.
Giants security is nowhere to be found. I look around many times trying to catch someone's attention, but I don't see anyone. I keep hoping someone will show up, but no one ever does. They have this program where you can text for help, but -- and this is a free helpful hint to the Giants -- you should first have good cellphone coverage in a stadium before you use that technology for security. In the meantime, maybe beef up the detail in Section 134?
I could leave and try to find security, but that means either leaving my kids alone in front of these guys or getting them all up and traipsing around the stadium looking for someone. Or new seats, an impossibility in what appears to be a sold-out stadium.
All they want to do is enjoy the game, and that's all I desperately want as well. Still, the guys keep going and I don't know what to do.
Any sort of confrontation -- verbal, if I was to get up and bring over security, or obviously physical -- and the headlines in blogs the that night and the next day would be "ESPN's Matthew Berry fights with fans at Giants game" or some such. It certainly wouldn't be "Drunk jerks harass Matthew Berry's family."
I just want it to stop. The entire time I never look back, I never acknowledge, I just try to focus on the game and talk to my kids. It's supposed to be our time together -- a rarity -- and we can't even enjoy it.
I'm paralyzed by what to do. I'm bothered, I'm angry and, honestly, I'm humiliated. This is happening in front of my kids. And I don't know what to do.
I've thought about that night a lot in the past week, trying to figure out why I reacted so strongly to it. I've written about being bullied as a kid, and it dawned on me that I was having the same feelings I had as a kid. Feeling helpless, outnumbered, embarrassed and ashamed.
And not knowing what to do.
As I write this sentence, it is 1:27 a.m. Thursday. I've been at the office since 10 a.m. Wednesday. Between research, writing the advice and the "open," this weekly 4,000-plus-word column is a two-day effort that, schedulewise, I just can't start until Wednesday around noon. It's not a complaint. This column is part of what I am paid for, and fantasy has exploded in a way that there is an insatiable appetite for content on all our platforms at ESPN.
The point is, my job takes me away from my kids a lot. And yet, even when I am sitting with them at a game, it's taking me away from them again.
The guys are still going strong into the third quarter when I am saved by a text from a friend, who is sitting in a suite and wants to meet the kids. So we quickly leave and meet my friend, and the kids really enjoy that. So at least that part of the evening is salvaged for them, and I am very grateful to my friend. Still, the evening as a whole was the complete opposite of what I had hoped for.
And then, as we are leaving the stadium and walking to the car, I check my email. There's one in there titled "Sitting behind you."
We're sitting behind you at the Giants game. We never meant to harass you; we honestly thought you were a look-alike of yourself. I apologize for any grief we have caused you and your family members. We just live by your advice.
P.S. Do you like Jordan Reed tonight?
Thanks,
Keith
I'm so confused by this email. They didn't mean to harass me but wanted to harass a look-alike of me? That would be OK? What do you mean you never meant to? Everything you said for two-and-a-half quarters was an accident? You claim you live by my advice, but spent the whole time insulting me or being weird? You couldn't just say, "Excuse me, Matthew, big fan, can we get a photo?" or something like a normal person? How long does a guy -- SITTING WITH HIS KIDS -- have to ignore something before you realize it's not something he wants to engage in?
Way too little, too late, but I do appreciate Keith (not his real name) recognizing that the behavior was so bad it needed to be apologized for and making a small attempt at making things right. More than his friends did.
I reached out to Keith and asked him to have an on-the-record conversation about the night; he refused. I asked to speak to his friends, on or off the record, and they refused. I told them I was planning on writing about the night and offered to publish a statement from one or all of them, if they wanted to try to explain their behavior. They refused as well. Would have been interesting, I thought, but just like I couldn't stop them from talking that night, I can't force them to do it now. I have Keith's real full name, his cell phone, his email and I know where he and his friends work. To be honest, I had a moment where I thought about publishing it all.
But then I remembered how painful it was to be publically shamed.
Look, in the real world, these are small problems. Many, many families have much larger issues to deal with and don't even get the luxury of getting to go to a game, so I recognize that this is a high-class issue. It's just that I don't know what I should have done differently that night, and I don't know what to do in the future. Do I just not go out? Not do things in public with my family? I mean, it's not like I'm Taylor Swift, you know? I talk about fake football on basic cable.

I have an amazing job. It's one I worked very hard to get and feel extremely lucky to have. It has provided many incredible opportunities, for which I will be forever grateful. For the most part, I love my job. But every once in a while ... I hate it.
[h=2]Quarterbacks I love in Week 4[/h]
Carson Palmer, Cardinals: I'm not scared of the Rams because it's possible that no quarterback is more locked in right now. He's had multiple touchdowns in nine of his past 10 games; the only game he didn't do it was the one in which he got hurt. He's a top-five fantasy QB but is not being treated like one.
Andy Dalton, Bengals: I'll be damned if Bad Andy has NOT shown up yet. Dalton has thrown for three scores in each of the past two weeks -- and even ran for one in Week 3 -- and his 866 passing yards this season ranks sixth in the NFL. Meanwhile, K.C.'s secondary is banged-up, is traveling on a short week and has allowed 10 passing touchdowns (worst in the NFL) and the fifth-most passing yards. Some of it's due to Aaron Rodgers, but not all of it. As teams continue to focus on stopping Jeremy Hilland Giovani Bernard, Dalton is making them pay. By the way, remember in 2013, when Dalton was a top-five fantasy QB?
2013 through three games: 812 total yards (passing and rushing), 5 TDs, 3 INTs
2015 through three games: 887 total yards, 10 total TDs, 1 INT
Derek Carr, Oakland: Carr has back-to-back 300-yard games and five scores in the past two weeks. He is one of just five QBs with multiple 300-yard passing games this season. And now he faces a Bears team that has allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (eight), and only four teams have fewer sacks. When given at least 2.6 seconds in the pocket, Carr is the fifth-highest-rated quarterback in the league this season, behind only Rodgers, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Palmer.
If you're desperate: Colin Kaepernick is not going to throw multiple pick-sixes every week, and the Packers are traveling to the West Coast on a short week. The Packers will have no trouble scoring on San Fran, meaning there should be some nice junk time here for Kaepernick. It's worth noting that since the start of last season, no team has given up more rushing yards to opposing QBs than the Packers. ... I know he's been brutal lately and there is a chance this game gets postponed because of weather, but if Sam Bradford plays, I like his chances to have a blow-up game against Washington's overmatched secondary. ... I say it every week: You can do much worse than betting against a Rob Ryan-coached defense. Brandon Weeden is completing 88 percent of his passes so far, and the Saints are tied for the most fantasy points allowed to QBs.
The price is right: In addition to those listed above, other guys I like a lot on DraftKings.com this week include Cam Newton. Hey, happiness is the Buccaneers on the schedule. In six career games against Tampa Bay, he has 16 touchdowns (10 passing, six rushing). Newton has a high floor, and his $7,000 price is just sixth among QBs. ... I continue to bang the drum for Tyrod Taylor, whose $5,800 price on DraftKings seems too low for a home game withoutLeSean McCoy and facing the Giants' 31st-ranked pass defense. ... If you want an interesting tournament play, I could see people wanting to shy away fromAndrew Luck given his struggles and the injury concerns, but he's at home facing the Jaguars, a team he's always played well against.
[h=2]Quarterbacks I hate in Week 4[/h]Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins: In six career games versus the Jets, Tannehill has thrown four touchdowns to go along with six interceptions. Meanwhile, the Jets have allowed opponents to complete just 21.1 percent of deep passes, lowest in the league this season. Tannehill has attempted 30 deep passes this season, fourth-most in the league. I'm not expecting the deep stuff to work against the Jets, and with the Dolphins' run game struggling as well, this should be a low-scoring affair.
Matthew Stafford, Lions: One of these weeks I won't pick on Stafford, but since the start of 2013, only two opposing QBs have had more than 15 fantasy points in a game at Seattle: Peyton Manning (20) and Tony Romo (16). Stafford is banged up, making poor decisions in the pocket and, since the start of last season, has completed just 55.6 percent of passes on the road (compared to 67.5 percent at home).
Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings: A funny thing happened on the way to Bridgewater's breakout season: He's a game manager. I don't care whom the Broncos have faced. Allowing just 13 fantasy points total to opposing QBs this season through three games is damn impressive. Bridgewater will spend a lot of time handing off in this road game.
I know, it's a weak week for quarterbacks on the hate list. What are you gonna do? I can't force it.
[h=2]Running backs I love in Week 4[/h]Melvin Gordon, Chargers: Two first names, always a crowd-pleaser. The Chargers want to get him going; he had his number called on for six of the first nine plays (including one target) last week against the Vikings, but once the Chargers fell behind 24-7, Gordon got just three more touches. He's been a tough tackle so far. The only RBs with more carries who are averaging more yards after contact are Latavius Murray, Adrian Peterson, Carlos Hyde and Joseph Randle. It's a great matchup against Cleveland, as the Browns have allowed the most rushing yards, the second-highest yards per carry and third-most fantasy points to opposing RBs. We've been waiting for a Melvin Gordon breakout game, and I think this will be it.
Karlos Williams, Bills: The only player this season to have rushed for a touchdown in all three games; he should get all the work, as LeSean McCoy is not expected to play. Williams just pops off the screen when you watch the film and now faces a beat-up Giants defense that has allowed the third-most receptions and second-most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
Joseph Randle, Cowboys: One of four players this season to have rushed for at least 50 yards in all three games; it's always safe to bet against Rob Ryan. The Saints have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards in the NFL (126.0 per game).
Arian Foster, Texans: If he plays, I'm playing him. Especially against a Falcons team that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
If you're desperate: Randle's teammate Lance Dunbar has 21 receptions, five more than any other running back, and his 215 receiving yards are 36 more than any other back. An obvious PPR play, he'll get enough work here to be worthy of flex consideration in standard play. ... I like Chris Ivory, who's feeling a lot better after his week off, to carry the load in London against the Dolphins' 31st-ranked run defense. ... On the road in San Diego, expect the Browns to run the ball a lot. I like Isaiah Crowell's chances to score this week, and Duke Johnson is a legit PPR flex play against the Bolts' 28th-ranked run defense. ... I know, it's on the road and it's Seattle, but one of the few guys who has made plays for Detroit this season is Ameer Abdullah, and he'll get enough dump-offs in this one to be worth it.
The price is right: Five running backs are more expensive than Matt Forte on DraftKings.com, but he faces a Raiders team that, since the start of last season, has given up the most receiving points to opposing running backs. The offense will run through him, giving him a very high floor for cash games. ... After a huge Week 1, people have gotten off the Carlos Hyde bandwagon, but the Packers are allowing 5.0 yards per rush, worst in the NFL. The Niners will be able to run on the Packers, who are heading west on a short week. Plus, I am playing against Hyde this week, so I assure you, he's going off. Never fails. ... Just the 10th-most expensive running back on DraftKings, Latavius Murray has a very high floor, as he'll get a ton of touches against the Bears. He should be a staple in cash game lineups this week. ... Frank Gore is just $4,700 on DraftKings. Coming off a big game and now at home against the Jags with a banged-up Andrew Luck, expect Gore to touch the ball a lot on Sunday. ... Also, all the guys listed above have good prices on DraftKings.
[h=2]Running backs I hate in Week 4[/h]Arizona running backs: With Andre Ellington expected back this week, this has the makings of a three-headed monster and we don't know how the touches will shake out. If I had to start someone from this game, it'd be Chris Johnson(and this is all moot if Ellington is out again), but ideally you have better options, as the Rams have a decent run defense and we just don't have a sense of the pecking order.
Lamar Miller, Dolphins: It's a tough matchup with the Jets (sixth-fewest yards allowed per rush) and the Dolphins seem to hate Miller. Thirty-one players have more carries than Miller this season, including Cam Newton. Miller has had 15 or fewer touches in each of the Dolphins' three games this season, so it's hard to see him as a top-20 option this week.
Alfred Morris, Washington: He's in a time-share with Matt Jones, and the Eagles have allowed just 3.1 yards per rush this season, fewest in the NFL. Philly is one of four teams to not allow a rushing TD this season. My beloved Washington is gonna have to win this one on the arm of Kirk Cousins(shudders).
[h=2]Wide receivers I love in Week 4[/h]Steve Smith Sr., Ravens: Joe Flacco has eyes for Steve Smith only, and can you blame him? After consecutive double-digit catch games, Smith has 50 catches in his past seven regular-season games. One of four wideouts with multiple 10-catch games this season, Smith has a good matchup with a Steelers team that is allowing opponents to complete 72 percent of their passes this season. As Baltimore continues to struggle to get its running game going (and its defense keeps getting lit up), Smith will continue putting up big fantasy numbers.
Jordan Matthews, Eagles: As much as the Eagles have struggled, Matthews continues to get a ton of looks. Antonio Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones andBrandon Marshall are the only other receivers to lead their teams in receiving in all three games this season. I am not a believer in Washington's secondary, which got waxed against the first legit passing team the Redskins faced (the Giants in Week 3). In addition, 63.6 percent of the Eagles' qualified WR targets this season -- "qualified" means a WR who has played at least 50 percent of offensive snaps -- have gone to Matthews. For the sake of comparison, Julio Jones is at 60.6 percent and Antonio Brown is at 55.6 percent.
Donte Moncrief, Colts: One of four players who has caught a touchdown in all three games this season, he'll have no issue burning the Jags on the turf in Indy.
Amari Cooper, Raiders: He's one of nine players with multiple 100-yard receiving games this season, and you know I like Derek Carr in this one. And you know who Derek Carr likes? Amari Cooper. The Bears have allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers this season.
Alshon Jeffery, Bears: A small sample size, but in Jimmy Clausen's Week 16 start last season with Jeffrey in the lineup, Jeffery had six catches for 72 yards and a touchdown. The Lions were much better defensively last season than the Raiders are this season. Since joining the Bears, Clausen has thrown 46 passes with Jeffery on the field. Nineteen of those passes (41 percent) have been directed at Jeffery. For comparison, that's the same share of targets that Julio Jones is getting with the Falcons, which is the highest rate of any player in the league this season.
If you're desperate: Dating back to 2013, Marvin Jones has caught a touchdown in five of his past seven games and in two straight. As I said in the Dalton write-up, the Chiefs are traveling a on a short week with a banged-up secondary that so far has given up the most receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers. ... I know, he's been hurt, we don't know if he'll play, and the game might be postponed, but if this game is on and DeSean Jackson is active, I am absolutely playing him against Philly. ... With Sammy Watkins injured, I expect even more love for Percy Harvin against the Giants' 31st-ranked pass defense.
The price is right: In addition to all the "love" names, I like some other players a lot on DraftKings.com, including Antonio Brown. He's usually obvious, but in case you were worried about him having Michael Vick as his QB, I wouldn't be. The Ravens have allowed 110 fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, the second-most of any team. ... If you want to go top-shelf but don't feel like paying super-high prices, A.J. Green is just the seventh-highest-priced WR on DraftKings ($7,600), and as you know from my Marvin Jones and Andy Dalton notes, you can pass versus the Chiefs. ... The 49ers are giving up the most yards per pass attempt and allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so Randall Cobb ($7,400 on DraftKings) and James Jones ($5,300) will both earn value. ... Allen Hurns ($3,700) has at least 60 yards in three straight games; there's a decent chance that Vontae Davis will shadow Allen Robinson; and the Jags will be behind and throwing in this one.
[h=2]Wide receivers I hate in Week 4[/h]Calvin Johnson, Lions: The last time Matthew Stafford didn't rank in the bottom third of accuracy when under pressure was 2011, and you know Seattle will bring the heat. It's hard to let a play develop downfield when you're under siege, and no defense has given up fewer 20-plus yard completions (regular season) than the Seahawks since the beginning of last season (that includes a dismal start to this season). Meanwhile, Stafford's percentage of deep throws (20-plus yards downfield) is just 3.1 percent, bottom three in the NFL. Since the start of last season, the Seahawks have allowed just two receiving touchdowns to opposing wide receivers at home. Two. I can't imagine you have better options, so you're gonna have to roll Johnson out there and hope he gets lucky in the end zone, because I don't see a huge day for him otherwise.
Travis Benjamin, Browns: I know, he's been a scoring machine. But don't get cute. The Chargers have given up just six 40-plus-yard pass plays since the beginning of last season and are actually third against the pass so far this season.
Terrance Williams, Cowboys: Of Brandon Weeden's 26 pass attempts last week, only six targeted a wide receiver. The Saints have allowed 24 receptions to wide receivers this season, tied for the second-fewest in the NFL.
Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson, Vikings: Better days are ahead for these two, especially Johnson. I truly believe that, but not this week against a Broncos team that has yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a wide receiver this season and has allowed just four completions on deep passes this season (15-plus yards downfield), tied for fewest in the league. Expect a lot (and I mean a lot) of Adrian Peterson in this game.
[h=2]Tight ends I love in Week 4[/h]Martellus Bennett, Bears:Bennett is my No. 1 tight end this week, as the Raiders have allowed 58 fantasy points to TEs this season, 16 more than any other team. The Raiders have allowed the most receptions (21) and receiving yards (305) to opposing TEs and have given up five scores in three games.
Jordan Reed, Washington: He's one of two tight ends with at least 60 yards receiving in all three games this season. The other? Rob Gronkowski. Reed has one catch of at least 25 yards in every game this season. Antonio Brown, A.J. Green and Larry Fitzgerald are among those who can't say that. With the Eagles playing strong run defense, Washington will have to attack Philly through the air.
If you're desperate: I like Charles Clay and so does Tyrod Taylor, especially after this past Sunday. Clay has scored in two straight games, Sammy Watkins is hurt, and opposing TEs against the Giants this season have 20 receptions (second-most), 241 yards (third-most) and 3 TDs (tied for third-most). ...Crockett Gillmore is out, which means Maxx Williams gets the start Thursday night against a Steelers team giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. ... The Lions will have to throw to someone against the Seahawks, andEric Ebron has looked good in the early going. Seattle is tied for the seventh-most fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends.
The price is right: Actually, all the tight ends I love on DraftKings.com are mentioned above. Jordan Reed and Martellus Bennett are each just $4,500, and Charles Clay is just $3,300. If you feel like looking elsewhere, consider Jason Witten ($4,400), who faces a Saints defense that just got destroyed by Greg Olsen and has given up three touchdowns to tight ends so far this season and the second-most points to tight ends.
[h=2]Tight ends I hate in Week 4[/h]Jordan Cameron, Dolphins: I'm not convinced he's 100 percent healthy, and I don't love the matchup even if he was. The Jets have allowed the fewest receptions to opposing tight ends this season and are one of nine teams that has yet to allow a receiving touchdown to a tight end.
Heath Miller, Steelers: Opposing tight ends against the Ravens this season have just seven catches for 30 yards and no touchdowns, and that includes holding down Tyler Eifert last week. This is not a game where Miller usually shines; in his past 10 games against the Ravens, he has just two receiving touchdowns, plus we don't know what a Vick-led offense will look like.
[h=2]Defenses I love in Week 4[/h]Carolina Panthers: The Panthers are already top-10 in sacks, adding Jared Allen can't hurt, and Jameis Winston is in the bottom 10 in completion percentage when under pressure.
Seattle Seahawks: Just because it's obvious doesn't mean it's not true. The Lions have committed eight turnovers this season, tied for second-most in the league.
If you're desperate: I like the Chargers, at home, facing a nicked-up Josh McCown. ... The Colts don't have a great defense, but at home against Jacksonville, game flow should work in their favor for a solid output.
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</article>The price is right: In addition to the teams listed above, the Eagles are just $2,700 on DraftKings and get the human turnover, Kirk Cousins. Philly has five interceptions this season, tied for third-most in the NFL, and Cousins never met double coverage he didn't want to throw into.
[h=2]Defenses I hate in Week 4[/h]New Orleans Saints: I get it, but Brandon Weeden > Rob Ryan. Weeden is throwing it so short, he is not giving opponents a chance to make plays, and because of the Cowboys' run-heavy, conservative approach, the chances for the Saints to make plays will be few and far between.
Houston Texans: Defenses have scored two total fantasy points against the Falcons this season. You probably don't have a better option in season-long leagues, but on the road against Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, I'm looking elsewhere in daily.
Matthew Berry -- The Talented Mr. Roto -- will be watching Thursday night's game from his house. He is a paid spokesman for DraftKings.com and the creator of RotoPass.com, a website that combines a bunch of well-known fantasy sites, including ESPN Insider, for one low price. You might also have heard: He has written a book.

 

[HacheMan]

[h=1]Foster is worth it whenever he plays[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

This sure would be a great week for the Houston Texans to get running backArian Foster back in the lineup, as the team faces the Atlanta Falcons and a defense that was shredded for 46 fantasy points by the Dallas Cowboys' running backs in Week 3.
Foster, on the shelf after groin surgery, has been discussed as a possibility to return Sunday, but then again, it’s tough to trust any coaches. Of course, coach Bill O’Brien would want the Falcons -- who have permitted the most standard fantasy points to running backs so far -- to have to prepare for one of the best in the league, and fantasy owners, so desperate for decent running backs, need him.
Foster has been in my top 10 at his position for rest-of-season rankings for weeks and because things are actually looking positive for this weekend, he’s among my top 10 as well, initially at No. 6. As with any injury situation, all fantasy owners should be aware of potential complications, but at least the Texans and Falcons are playing in the early slate Sunday. Well, technically that’s not even correct; the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins meet in London’s Wembley Stadium on Sunday morning on the East Coast, but standard lock times for 1 p.m. ET games still apply. You’ll know at least an hour before the game if Foster is active.
The point here is if Foster is active, I trust him. He’s always been productive, even after the annoying and occasional layoffs, and the Falcons, for all the talk ofMatt Ryan and Julio Jones torching defenses, haven’t had the easiest time stopping other teams, either. The Texans have seen credible play from quarterback Ryan Mallett, and DeAndre Hopkins looks like a top-10 wide receiver, but the Texans are still a run-first unit. Even with backups Alfred Blueand Chris Polk, they’re 12th in rushing yards and tied for seventh in attempts. Last season, the Texans rushed the ball 551 times, easily the most in the NFL.
If Foster sits, the crafty O’Brien made it pretty clear not with words but actions that Blue is the next in line for touches, a valuable commodity in fantasy for such a run-heavy team relying on an older running back who does miss games. However, in the first two weeks, Blue was a major disappointment, totaling 14 rushing attempts and achieving four standard fantasy points. In Week 3 against a weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, he was provided 31 carries and turned them into 139 rushing yards and a touchdown. So which is it? If Foster sits, Blue would enter my top 20 for the week. Polk, who misleadingly earned 14 rushing attempts in Week 2, was no factor in Week 3.
By the way, it’s fair to wonder whether Foster would be a top-10 play several days before knowing whether he’s actually going to play if the running back position were in a better state of productivity. Right now it’s pretty bad.DeMarco Murray, C.J. Anderson, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Hill, Mark Ingram,Alfred Morris, Lamar Miller and Justin Forsett were each among the first 15 running backs chosen in ESPN average live drafts. Some appear unplayable for fantasy purposes, but we have no choice. If you’re a Murray owner, how many better choices do you have? McCoy might sit this week. Hill was promised a large workload in Week 3 and underachieved. Miller isn’t getting enough touches. Morris is being phased out. You bet Foster is a top option, and if he’s out, Blue against the Atlanta defense is top-20.


Quarterback: If Andrew Luckdoesn’t come through with a large statistical game at home against the Jaguars this week, then the top tier of quarterbacks is reduced by one (though on Wednesday it was revealed he has a sore throwing shoulder). Is that fair? Of course not. If anything, what happened with Tom Brady last season should have taught us all a lesson. He didn’t start playing well until Week 5. Luck should play well. It may be the final week to trade for him. Four of the five rankers placed him second. … Three of us have Carson Palmer fourth. I liked him in August, but didn’t quite expect this. … Drew Brees isn’t a lock to play against Dallas on Sunday night, and because you might not know his true availability before the 1 p.m. ET games, you might need to use Eli Manning or Andy Dalton instead. And by the way, I ranked Brees after Tyrod Taylor and Derek Carr, and that’s assuming he’s playing. Why are we all assuming Brees will play great? … I consider Michael Vick, starting for Pittsburgh for at least a month, a top-20 play. That’s not great, but it’s better than Sam Bradford, Colin Kaepernick andMatthew Stafford.
Running back: I feel good about maybe eight or nine running backs this week. That’s it. I’m assuming McCoy will sit, and we all ranked Karlos Williams well. I’m assuming Tevin Coleman is out, so Devonta Freeman gets a strong RB2 play. I don’t like treating Murray as a RB2, but what choice is there? He’s going to play and should see enough touches. Maybe the Eagles figured out how to run in Week 3, at least in the first half. … I still think we’re all overrating Chris Johnsonof the Cardinals. Andre Ellington should play and it seems crazy to not use him at least half the time. I feel like Johnson will be outside my top 25 in a few days but again, who moves up? Forsett and Miller? Giovani Bernard and Ameer Abdullah? There isn’t much. … Matt Jones did very little in Week 3, and I’ve ranked him the worst on staff this week. Why all the trust? Sure, he’s a better choice than Morris if Washington keeps doing what it's been doing, but still, make Kirk Cousins throw. … Don’t be too concerned with Todd Gurley. His first game didn’t go well statistically. His second probably won’t, either, against Arizona. His fifth should go well, and many after that.


Wide receiver: As always, not many surprises among the top 20. We all seem to mostly agree who is good and who is not. I’m the only one with Amari Cooper in my top 10, which surprises me. The Bears aren’t trying to improve their awful defense; they keep trading key parts of it away. I’m lowest on Jordan Matthews as well. He’s strictly a slot guy and Sam Bradford is basically looking only at him, which I assume future opponents have noticed and will prepare for. Still, I have him at No. 20, a starter for us. … Washington could get DeSean Jackson back, and despite all the negative things I’ve pointed out about him -- not enough catches, erratic from game to game -- he’s a borderline top-20 guy. … Are my colleagues underestimating Cleveland’s Travis Benjamin? He’s been productive. San Diego’s defense isn’t special. Not saying he’s a must-use, but he’s earned some attention. … Guess I don’t get the love for Mike Wallace. Denver has been by far the stingiest in allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers and Wallace hasn’t done anything in the games against bad defenses. So overrated. … With Sammy Watkins likely out, I ranked Percy Harvin, because while I’d never trade for someone so brittle and overrated -- look at his numbers over the years! -- I do acknowledge that Tyrod Taylor can play and this week they’ll be moving the football against the Giants.

Tight end: No Rob Gronkowski? What will his owners do, just give up? There are plenty of tight ends out there. Eric Ebron has finally made it above 50 percent ownership, but not by much. Try Owen Daniels, Larry Donnell andCharles Clay. Ebron and Clay made my top 10. … I thought about Martellus Bennett for No. 1, I really did, but he’s second after Greg Olsen. Why Bennett, coming off a nothing week? The Raiders really give it up to tight ends. Gary Barnidge had 100 yards and a score in Week 3! … Is this the week Zach Ertzbreaks out? Perhaps, but I’ve stopped ranking him as if it’s a sure thing.