Fantasy Football News 2015/16

HacheMan · Aug 16, 2015

[h=1]What, AP worry? Workload concerns for 2015's top fantasy RBs[/h]Tristan H. Cockcroft, Fantasy

In a season like this, with the top tier of running backs so closely bunched, every seemingly insignificant edge helps.
Here's an oddity, looking at this year's top 20 at the position in terms of ADP (average draft position): They're a somewhat older bunch than usual, with two 28-year-olds (Jamaal Charles and Jonathan Stewart), four 29-year-olds (Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Justin Forsett and Joique Bell), a 30-year-old (Adrian Peterson) and -- gasp -- a 32-year-old (Frank Gore).

An older crop of running backs -- relatively speaking, that is -- rekindles the career-workload debate, as history serves an excellent reference point for age/workload-related risk factors. Perhaps, in fact, it can serve as our proverbial "tiebreaker" for some of these oh-so-tight rankings battles.
Let's be very clear about this up front: What follows measures historical workloads for reference points, rather than serving a "bust" decree of the player. History is also littered with examples of players who bucked past trends, beginning with the very first name on the list.
Still, as you consider any of these aging or heavily used running backs, don't tread lightly into the decision without knowing the facts.
[h=2]Adrian Peterson[/h]Workload worry: He's 30 years old, and he's coming off a 2014 season during which he appeared in only one game -- that in Week 1 -- before landing on the commissioner's exempt list.
The closest comparisons we have -- those defined by career workload, age at the time of return and starting role -- are John Riggins, Garrison Hearst and Stephen Davis, and even then, each fails to represent a perfect parallel. Riggins was two years older and had 388 fewer career carries than Peterson entering 1981, Hearst was the same age, but with 888 fewer carries entering 2001 (which followed two years absent) and Davis one year older with 329 fewer carries entering 2005. Still, the group represents a small indicator as far as worry: They averaged 210 fantasy points in the season before their extended absences, and 147 fantasy points during their comeback years. Even if we adjusted their numbers projecting full, 16-game campaigns, they'd have suffered a 59-fantasy-point drop from their pre- to post-absence years.
Expanding the pool to any player with at least 1,500 career carries at the time of a "comeback campaign" -- that defined as a season following one of 50 or fewer carries -- we find 14 historical comparisons. Here is their average comeback season:
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SEASON	G	FPTS	FPPG	ATT	TOUCH
Pre-injury	13.9	117.6	8.4	174.0	199.9
Post-injury	12.4	60.7	4.9	86.3	97.9

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-weight: 600; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">RB Production, Pre- And Post-Injury</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 10px; font-weight: 600; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
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</aside>Caveat one: The average age during which this group missed a year (the sub-50-carry year) was 31, with diminishing roles at advancing ages influencing the numbers. Still, the three youngest players for whom this happened, Ottis Anderson, Davis and Ricky Williams, suffered an almost identical decline in fantasy production during the comeback year; they dropped by an average of 53.2 total fantasy points and 3.2 fantasy points per game. Age, apparently, did not weigh in the player's comeback attempt.
Caveat two: A 14-player sample is precariously small and diminishes the strength of the data. It does, however, illustrate the rarity of the Peterson workload example as he enters his 2015 campaign.
Caveat three, and perhaps the most important: Peterson is a once-in-a-generation talent who has already bucked historical trends by nearly setting a single-season rushing record while scoring a career-best 297 fantasy points in 2012, his first since returning from a major knee reconstruction. If anyone can rebound at age 30 following such a lengthy absence, it's Peterson, who no doubt has as high a statistical ceiling as anyone in football.
But bear in mind his draft price. As a certain first-rounder and top-five overall pick, Peterson will need to defy the odds for a second time in four seasons, putting forth another historic campaign, to be a success story. That's not to say he can't; it's a reminder that his basement expectation is arguably the lowest of anyone currently going in the first round. It is the primary reason that I cannot support him as my No. 1 overall pick for 2015 or, frankly, No. 2-4.
[h=2]DeMarco Murray[/h]Workload worry: He carried the football 392 times and touched it 449 times last season, those the eighth- and sixth-largest single-season totals in NFL history. Perhaps you've heard the phrase before, "The Curse of 370"?
This is the one with a sizable enough sample to be of concern, as there's compelling evidence that heavily-used players one year are at increased risk of regression the next. For this study, let's expand the pool even deeper: We'll use 360 carries rather than 370, as that calculates to 22.5 per game over a full, 16-game season, which gives us 43 examples before Murray's. Again, these are average seasons among the 43 players included, and the player's pre-360 campaign is included as an additional barometer:
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SEASON	G	FPTS	FPPG	ATT	YPC	TOUCH
Pre-360 year	14.6	214.5	14.7	296.5	4.4	334.3
360+ year	15.8	268.3	17.0	378.6	4.4	416.5
Follow-up	13.1	182.0	13.9	273.7	4.2	306.0

<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; border-left-width: 1px; border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-style: solid; border-right-width: 1px; border-right-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-right-style: solid; border-top-width: 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-weight: 600; height: 39px; line-height: 32px; margin: 0px; padding: 3px 12px; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; background: rgb(221, 221, 221);">RB Production Before, During, After 360-Carry Campaign</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 1px 0px 1px 1px; border-top-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-bottom-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-left-color: rgb(221, 221, 221); border-top-style: solid; border-bottom-style: solid; border-left-style: solid; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 10px; font-weight: 600; line-height: 10px; margin: 0px; padding: 6px 12px; text-transform: uppercase; background: rgb(242, 242, 242);">
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</aside>Pick your comparison point: Either players in this group suffer declines of roughly three games, 90 fantasy points and three fantasy points per game (if compared to the 360-plus year), or 1.5 games, 32.5 fantasy points and eight-tenths of a fantasy point per game (if compared to pre-workhorse levels). Either way, there's a downturn in production and it's not necessarily the result of late-career aging curves, as the average age of the 43 players was 25.
Among this group, the three closest comparisons -- again defined by career workload, age in the given season and starting role -- represent a mixed bag as far as Murray's future prospects: James Wilder, Jamal Anderson and Larry Johnson, all of whom are better parallels than in the previous Peterson examples.
Wilder had 191 fewer career carries than Murray entering 1984, played at Murray's same age of 26, during which Wilder amassed another 407 rushing attempts. Wilder would rush 365 more times in 1985 and score a healthy 212 fantasy points, only 79 off his 1984 total, but he had only 463 total carries from 1986 on, steeply declining thereafter.
Anderson had 21 more carries and entered 1998 only a few months younger than Murray, and rushed 410 times plus another 70 during the playoffs: This is important as, counting the postseason, Anderson's 480 carries (second-most all-time) were only 44 more than Murray's 436 (seventh-most). Anderson tore his ACL in only the second game of his follow-up 1999, and returned to appear in only 19 total games of 337 carries from 2000-01.
Johnson had 66 fewer carries than Murray entering 2006, also played at the same age, then set an NFL single-season record with 416. Johnson suffered a steep downturn in production in 2007 and was limited to eight games due to a foot injury; he played in only 37 games and had 535 carries from 2007 on.

Beyond the historical concern, Murray has two other factors working against him: First, his injury history. Since becoming a starter midway through 2011, he has missed 11 of 58 team games due to ankle, foot and knee injuries.
Second, Murray is only the second player with at least 360 rushing attempts in a season who then changed teams before the following year; the other was Edgerrin James, who suffered a 96-fantasy point decline as a 28-year-old in his first season for the Arizona Cardinals in 2006. And by doing so, Murray left theDallas Cowboys and their vaunted offensive line for the Philadelphia Eagles, a team that has a considerably greater competitor for carries in the backfield inRyan Mathews (not to mention veteran Darren Sproles). The Eagles are probably mindful of Murray's workload -- and his aforementioned injury history -- and will spell him more often than the Cowboys did.
It's a primary reason I've ranked Murray firmly in my second round, behind the top four wide receivers.
[h=2]Marshawn Lynch[/h]Workload worry: He's now 29 years old and has 2,033 career carries. Only 12 players in history had more entering their age-29 seasons.
Two of those 12 entered 2014 the same age as Lynch: Maurice Jones-Drew and Peterson. Extracting them from the study -- they haven't yet provided us their aging evidence -- here are how the other 10 fared from ages 28 forward. The "#" column indicates how many of the 10 remained in the league at that age:
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AGE	#	G	FPTS	FPPG	ATT	YPC	TOUCH
28	10	13.4	175.8	13.1	257.2	4.1	290.8
29	10	13.2	125.8	9.5	207.1	3.8	233.8
30	9	12.2	97.1	7.9	167.3	3.7	185.2
31	6	14.0	88.2	6.3	150.5	3.7	177.0
32	4	15.5	101.8	6.6	167.5	3.6	195.5
33	3	8.3	61.3	7.4	95.7	3.6	104.7
34	2	9.5	21.0	2.2	40.5	3.4	54.0
35	1	13.0	2.0	0.2	10.0	3.1	10.0

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</aside>Granted, there's a noticeable decline in production from this group of 29-year-olds, but at the same time, Lynch's three closest comparisons, Thurman Thomas, Eddie George and Jamal Lewis, combined to lose only 4.2 percent of their fantasy production from their age-28 to age-29 seasons. George, in fact, was the most productive 29-year-old in the study, with 211 fantasy points in 2002.
Perhaps this makes Lynch a riskier early first-round pick than our rankings indicate, but at the same time, he has also been one of the game's most productive goal-line backs, with NFL bests in both scores (17) and opportunities (37) within the past three seasons, and competitive numbers in both in 2014 alone. (An aside: Super Bowl "recency bias" shouldn't convince you otherwise.)
I was awfully divided between my No. 4, 5 and 6 ranked players -- Lynch, Peterson and Antonio Brown -- for this reason, but those touchdowns are difficult to ignore.
[h=2]Peterson, Frank Gore and Rashad Jennings, among others[/h]Workload worry: All enter the 2015 season aged 30 or older, a threshold historically known for steep declines in running back production.
History shows a distinct aging curve, with a noticeable decline for players typically at the age of 28, then another, more devastating one, at age 31. This deviates from the lessons of the past; previously we had thought of the age-30 season as the swift, steep decline year.
Not so. The following chart collects all 53 players who have managed at least 1,500 career carries, having played the entirety of their careers during the 16-game era (1979 forward), and averages their production by age. The "#" column indicates how many of the 53 were in the league at that age:
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AGE	#	G	FPTS	FPPG	ATT	YPC	TOUCH
21	13	14.9	174.3	11.7	221.7	4.6	251.6
22	38	13.7	140.2	10.2	194.7	4.3	223.1
23	50	13.9	154.3	11.1	208.2	4.3	243.0
24	52	14.5	175.1	12.1	243.9	4.4	282.2
25	52	14.1	180.3	12.8	254.7	4.3	292.1
26	53	15.0	200.2	13.4	285.7	4.3	326.6
27	52	14.6	189.7	13.0	273.0	4.2	311.8
28	52	13.8	160.7	11.7	236.8	4.2	270.5
29	47	13.4	139.5	10.4	213.8	4.1	242.4
30	40	13.0	137.6	10.6	205.4	4.2	231.5
31	36	13.8	116.8	8.5	178.7	4.1	204.6
32	30	13.1	83.5	6.4	132.7	3.8	153.4
33	18	12.2	67.6	5.5	112.1	3.8	129.5
34	9	11.2	46.8	4.2	80.7	3.7	96.2
35	5	15.2	68.2	4.5	114.8	3.8	130.2
36	1	16.0	150.0	9.4	206.0	4.0	233.0
37	1	16.0	117.0	7.3	124.0	4.1	135.0

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</aside>The following players will play the majority of 2015 at the age of 30: Peterson, Jennings, Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead. Thankfully for this quintet, the age-30 data provides a hint of hope. I'm no longer quite so fearful of 30-year-olds simply because of that number three-oh; there needs to be some other sort of mitigating factor.
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</article>The following players will play the majority of 2015 aged 31 or older: Gore (32),DeAngelo Williams (32), Fred Jackson (34), Sproles (32), Steven Jackson (32).
Gore is the most notable name of concern in this group, with 2,442 career carries on his legs, 17th-most in history before his 32nd birthday. Among the top 20 in career carries by that age, the eight who got there during the 21st century averaged 98.3 fantasy points as 32-year-olds, with Jerome Bettis (172, 2004), Corey Dillon (159, 2006), Emmitt Smith (120, 2001) and Curtis Martin (102, 2005) the only ones to crack the century threshold.

The move to the Indianapolis Colts could thrust Gore into a much more fantasy-friendly situation, but at the same time that's a pass-heavy offense and he has suffered a steep decline in receiving production as he has aged, his receptions dropping from 46 in 2010 (age 27), to 28 in 2012 (29), to 11 in 2014 (31). If you're wondering why I've got Gore ranked lower than most, there's your answer.

HacheMan · Aug 16, 2015

[h=1]Five late-round wide receivers to target[/h]Tom Carpenter, Fantasy and Insider

Once the top 100 or so picks have come off your draft board, you'll find yourself in wild-card territory when it comes to wide receivers. By this point, your starting lineup in standard leagues likely is set, so you are culling your fourth, fifth or sixth wideouts with the hope that they will develop into reliable flex plays or, ideally, a potential WR2.
Last season, DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Matthews, Malcom Floyd, Steve Smith Sr. and Odell Beckham Jr. were late-round picks (or entirely undrafted) but churned out WR3 or better production.
I won't pretend any of the following five players who are being selected outside of the top 115 picks in ESPN drafts will explode like Beckham did, but each has a decent shot at settling in as a WR3/flex play and has WR2 upside, if things break his way.

[h=2]Breshad Perriman, Baltimore Ravens[/h]ADP: 116.7, WR41
The Ravens used their first-round pick on Perriman in order to replace Torrey Smith, who left as a free agent. At 6-foot-2, 212 pounds, he averaged more than 20 yards per catch during his final two seasons at UCF and ran a 4.25 40 at his pro day. In other words, he has all of the requisite tools to settle in as a legit No. 1 NFL wideout.
There are long-term concerns about his drop rate and short-term concerns about a bruised knee that has cost him a week and half of training camp -- factors which likely are keeping his fantasy draft stock down. Still, with little in the way of competition, the rookie should slide right into the starting X spot across from Steve Smith Sr. as soon as he is healthy.
That's a position where Perriman could thrive in new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman's system. Sure, the Ravens keep saying they intend to run first and often, but Trestman's Bears offense had room for rushing and receiving. In fact, when wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery were healthy in 2013, running back Matt Forte touched the ball 363 times, while Marshall had 100 receptions (163 targets) for 1,295 yards and 12 TDs and Jeffery had 89 receptions (150 targets) for 1,421 yards and seven TDs.
With defenses having to pay attention to Smith, Perriman will have room to operate and could be a sneaky end zone threat.

[h=2]John Brown, Arizona Cardinals[/h]ADP: 138.2, WR55
As a rookie last season, Brown reeled in 48 of his 103 targets and totaled 696 yards and five TDs. He did so despite the presence of Michael Floydin the Cardinals' WR corps and having the likes of Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley throwing the passes in the second half of the season.
Just imagine what he could do in Year 2 if he passes Floyd on the depth chart and has Carson Palmer at quarterback for 16 games. Right now, that is exactly the situation, as Palmer has recovered from his torn ACL and Floyd is iffy for Week 1 after seriously dislocating three fingers last week during practice.
Entering last season, Floyd was on plenty of preseason breakout lists, but he ended up catching 18 fewer passes for 200 fewer yards than he totaled in 2013. Floyd could well get healthy and turn things around in 2015, but what if it takes longer than hoped to heal up and/or he fails to take things to the next level?
In those scenarios, Brown would have a wide-open shot at having a breakout of his own, working off of Larry Fitzgerald, who is still good enough to attract the attention of opposing defenses.

[h=2]Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams[/h]ADP: 142.5, WR59
We have only a small sample size on Quick, because he has caught just 54 passes in three years and missed the second half of last season due to a shoulder injury, which required offseason surgery. Combining those factors with being in a run-heavy offense, and it's no wonder that fantasy football owners are skeptical enough to let him fall in to the 15th round.
However, Quick brings plenty of potential. ESPN Rams reporter Nick Wagonernoted Monday that, "He's looked sharp and healthy in camp. Barring any setbacks, he'll likely start opposite Britt."
As the Rams' top option early last season, Quick saw nine targets in three of his first four games, totaling 21 catches for 322 yards and three TDs during that stretch. Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin shouldn't be a threat for his role atop the WR depth chart this season, rather, they (and eventually rookie running backTodd Gurley) should open up more space for Britt.
One more plus is that Nick Foles clearly is a better quarterback than last year's gang of Austin Davis and Shaun Hill.

[h=2]Rueben Randle, New York Giants[/h]ADP: 170, WR63
Just like Floyd, Randle appeared to be poised for a breakout season last year. However, some freak of nature named Odell Beckham Jr. stole the spotlight with his quasar-like star power. Lost in the Beckham hype was the fact that Randle did improve statistically, finishing the season with 71 catches (30 more than '13) on 127 targets (47 more) for 938 yards (327 more) and three TDs (three fewer).
That pace was good enough to generate WR4 value and use as an occasional flex play in standard leagues. For comparison, his 103 fantasy points were one fewer than Vincent Jackson's (currently ADP WR26) and one more than Andre Johnson's (current ADP WR20). Of course, Jackson and Johnson should go higher than Randle in '15 drafts, because they are established veterans with secure roles and improved quarterback situations, but that doesn't mean Randle is a castoff.
The key is the size of his role in the Giants' offense, which depends entirely on how good Victor Cruz proves to be after recovering from his ruptured patella tendon. I can't seem to get over the idea that his kneecap was up in his thigh 10 months ago, so I'm skeptical about Cruz proving to be an explosive player again.
Randle may not be a star in the making, but if things click, he should have little trouble providing flex value this season.

[h=2]Stevie Johnson, San Diego Chargers[/h]ADP: undrafted, WR72
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</article>Johnson's production fell off the map the past two seasons -- 52-597-3 in '13, 35-435-3 in '14 -- so it's no wonder people are sleeping on him in drafts. It may surprise you that he is just 29 years old, which means he isn't out of gas. His lack of production had to do with some injuries and playing in an extremely run-heavy San Francisco 49ers offense last season.
This season, he is in a pass-friendly system with the Chargers, where he will replace Eddie Royal. In '14, even with the injury-prone Malcom Floyd and agingAntonio Gates playing 16 games and Keenan Allen playing 14 games, Royal saw 91 targets for 62 catches, 778 yards and seven TDs.
Now, the 35-year-old Gates is suspended four games, and Floyd is 34 and entering his final NFL campaign, so Johnson could see a larger role than Royal did, especially if injuries hit those aging vets. Consider Royal's '14 production a realistic target for Johnson, with more upside if things break his way.

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2015

Overvalued and undervalued fantasy tight ends

KC Joyner, NFL Insider

The first in the four-part series of overvalued and undervalued players in fantasy football reviewed the quarterback position.
Today's second part of the series will take a look at overvalued and undervalued tight ends. There isn't much depth at this position, as only seven tight ends areprojected to score more than 100 points this season, but the lack of upper-tier quality doesn't preclude candidates from rising or falling below where they should be valued.
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Overvalued

Julius Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 72.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 7
KC Joyner positional rank: No. 10
Last season, Thomas played on one of the most powerful offenses in the NFL. This led to his scoring eight short-pass touchdowns (defined as scoring plays on aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield). To put that number into perspective, only Rob Gronkowski equaled that scoring volume at the short-pass level, and only three other tight ends had more total touchdowns (combining all varieties). Jacksonville's offense is nowhere near as prolific as Denver's and the Jaguars also have a goal line specialist in running back T.J. Yeldon, so Thomas is highly unlikely to rack up the same short-pass touchdown volume.
The dink-and-dunk production is also incredibly important in this case because outside of those short passes, Thomas saw only 17 targets. He did a good job on those throws, tallying 258 yards and posting four touchdowns, but unless he sees a dramatic increase in vertical pass production, it won't be enough to offset the short-pass scoring losses. Add in a durability question mark (Thomas has missed five games during the past two seasons) that once again has cropped up via a fractured middle finger that will keep Thomas out the rest of the preseason, and it means he should not be considered an automatic TE1.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 105.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 8
Joyner positional rank: No. 15
Chip Kelly gets a ton of media coverage, yet he is still one of the most misunderstood coaches in the NFL.
Ertz's fantasy football valuation is a prime example of this. According to ESPN Stats & Information, in Kelly's six seasons as Oregon's offensive coordinator or head coach (2007-12), the Ducks targeted tight ends on passes only 96 times, a total that ranked 55th out of the 61 major conference teams. Kelly sees players at this position as run-blockers first and foremost and only wants to throw to them on rare occasions.
This trend is lost on many people, because Kelly went against this grain for one game last season, that being the Week 16 contest against Washington where Ertz caught 16 passes. The reason for this change of heart wasn't an instance of Kelly suddenly deciding that he was going to run a tight end-centric offense. Instead, it was a response to Washington's injured secondary that forced it to play Phillip Thomas, a first-year coverage liability who had only 130 career snaps to his credit coming into the contest (at strong safety). That rare circumstance is highly unlikely to occur even once a season, so it isn't something to count on.
Take that game out of Ertz's 2014 campaign and he had only 67 points for the season and only two games with 60 or more receiving yards. Kelly's system will continue to hold Ertz to somewhere around that point level, which is a far cry from TE1 status.

Undervalued

Larry Donnell, New York Giants
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 138.7
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 21
Joyner positional rank: No. 8
It seems odd to call a Tom Coughlin offense a pass-first platoon, but from Weeks 9-17 last season, Eli Manning was tied with Drew Brees for the most pass attempts in the league (391).
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</article>That should assure Donnell a high target volume, but what really makes Donnell a key facet of the Giants' offense is his production on medium-depth passes (aerials thrown 11-19 yards downfield). Last season, he ranked tied for first in touchdowns at that route depth level (five) and placed seventh in yards (270). Those numbers were part of why Donnell ranked eighth in tight end red zone fantasy points (37) and was only five points away from finishing fifth in that category. Combine those numbers with a schedule that my rating system says is tied for the fourth-most-favorable among tight ends, and the results could very well be TE1 caliber.

Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 124.7
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 14
Joyner positional rank: No. 7
One hundred targets is a fairly rare figure for a tight end to post in a season, as it has happened only 30 times in the past five NFL campaigns. Walker registered one of those triple-digit target volumes last season, and his 189 targets during the past two seasons ranks seventh among tight ends. Walker parlayed that workload into a No. 9 ranking among tight ends last season. Now that the Titans have Marcus Mariota under center, Walker should be able to equal or surpass that fantasy production level.

HacheMan · Aug 18, 2015

[h=1]Overvalued and undervalued fantasy quarterbacks[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

Five years ago, only six quarterbacks posted 250 or more fantasy points in a season.
This year, there are 14 quarterbacks projected to score that many points, and that list could be even longer if borderline 250-plus point candidates like Carson Palmer, Teddy Bridgewater or Jay Cutler perform on the higher end of their projections.
Given this glut of high-value field generals, it would seem difficult to overvalue or undervalue anyone at this position, yet a closer look at some quarterback situations indicates there are plenty of passers whose value is not what it should be.
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[h=2]Overvalued[/h]

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 24.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 3
KC Joyner positional rank: No. 10
Wilson's fantasy value skyrocketed last season due to his 113 fantasy points on rushing plays. That total was nearly equal to the 117 rushing fantasy points Wilson posted in his first two NFL seasons combined. Quarterbacks have scored triple-digit rushing fantasy points only nine times since 2001, with Michael Vickaccounting for four of them, so this is not the type of achievement Wilson is likely to repeat. It is more likely that Wilson will return to the rushing production level of his first two pro seasons.
His proponents might counter this by saying any drop-off in rushing production will be more than made up for by additional passes to Jimmy Graham. It's possible that will happen, but considering that Seattle's tight end corps caught 48 passes for 757 yards and six touchdowns last season, Graham's bar for improving on Wilson's fantasy passing point total isn't low. It means Wilson should not be valued as an upper-tier QB1, but rather at the lower end of the tier.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 68.7
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 8
Joyner positional rank: No. 11
Newton finished second in quarterback fantasy points on rushing plays last season (75), yet still ended up tied for 15th in overall quarterback fantasy points. The reason for the dramatic difference is that Newton placed 21st in passing points, posting a lower scoring total (162) than mediocre passers like Alex Smith(181), Andy Dalton (178) and Kyle Orton (164).
The blame here falls more on a terrible wide receiver corps than it does on Newton. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Panthers' wideouts last season ranked last in the league in yards after contact per reception (1.0), 31st in yards after catch per reception (3.0), and 27th in reception percentage (55.9 percent of the targets directed their way were converted into receptions).
The game tape also backs this assessment, as my game tracking had the Panthers with the highest percentage of plays where a coverage defender was credited with having good coverage on the intended receiver (25.9 percent). It's possible the development of Kelvin Benjamin and the addition of Devin Funchess will turn this around for Carolina, but with so much ground to cover, the odds of a turnaround that would vault Newton back into the top 10 might not be good.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 79.9
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 10
Joyner positional rank: No. 19
This all boils down to some simple math. Remove one-quarter of Brady's 2014 fantasy points (267 points minus 67) and he drops to low-end QB2 territory. Even if Brady does manage to make up some of that ground, as the currentESPN 2015 fantasy quarterback point projections have him doing, his point total still ends up outside the average QB2 level.
This is not to say that Brady should be avoided in fantasy drafts, as savvy fantasy owners can find a way to fill in for the first five weeks of the season if Brady's suspension is upheld (the Patriots are on a bye in Week 4) and then put him in the lineup as a strong QB1 the rest of the season. But if the ranking is based on overall point production, not a fantasy owner's draft strategy, Brady is highly overvalued as a low-end QB1.

[h=2]Undervalued[/h]

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 47.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 6
Joyner positional rank: No. 3
Roethlisberger was a top-five fantasy quarterback last season in part because he finished tied for first in vertical touchdown passes (19 scores on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and had the lowest bad-decision rate (BDR) among quarterbacks with 200 or more vertical pass attempts (BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team).
He also plays on arguably the best offense in the NFL, a platoon that has a dominant offensive line to go along with the top running back and top wide receiver in the league. Add Martavis Bryant -- who ranked ninth in stretch vertical touchdowns (four scores on aerials thrown 20 or more yards downfield) despite playing only 281 of the Steelers' 1,068 offensive snaps -- and the quickly developing Markus Wheaton, and this offense may be unmatched in terms of big-play targets. That makes Roethlisberger a rare candidate with a high point floor and a sky-high point ceiling.

Eli Manning, New York Giants
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 107.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 12
Joyner positional rank: No. 5
Manning led my 2015 No Respect fantasy football team because fantasy owners are treating him more like "Bad Comedian Eli Manning" than a high-volume passer who is surrounded by top-quality pass-catchers.
In Weeks 9-17 last season, Manning was tied with Drew Brees for the most pass attempts in the league (391). If that pace continues, and if Manning has a full season of throwing the ball to Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz and Shane Vereen, he should easily be able to surpass his No. 10 fantasy quarterback point ranking from last season and even push for a top-five mark.

Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 132.5
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 23
Joyner positional rank: No. 16
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</article>To get an idea of just how dominant the Chip Kelly system can be, consider that during the past two seasons, the quartet of Nick Foles,Mark Sanchez, Vick and Matt Barkley averaged 18.6 points per game while operating in this offense.
Bradford is a former first overall draft pick, so his talent level is equal to or better than any of those four. Bradford also posted superb downfield passing numbers in St. Louis with a receiving corps that was not as good as Philadelphia's should be this season. Kelly's system has been quite strong at protecting the quarterback, as the Eagles led the league in ESPN Stats & Information's pass-protection metric in 2013.
Even if all these elements led to only an 18.6-point per game pace, Bradford would rack up 298 points if he's able to stay under center for all 16 games. There may not be a quarterback outside of the QB1 mainstays who has this caliber upside, and yet Bradford is considered a QB3 in most ESPN leagues. That makes him a perfect candidate for a lottery pick, and he could be justified as an even higher pick for owners brave enough to take a chance on Bradford staying healthy.

HacheMan · Aug 19, 2015

[h=1]Do Not Draft List: Top QBs lead[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Repeat after me: I will not draft a quarterback in Round 1. I will not draft a quarterba . . . . By this point, you know the drill. Each August, I write about the football players I will not be drafting -- a “Do Not Draft” list, if you will -- and the top quarterbacks show up on it. I have nothing against Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers or Indianapolis' Andrew Luck. They’re awesome in many ways. They probably will be top fantasy scorers again. But that’s not exactly the best way to approach things with early draft picks or auction dollars. There’s more to consider. And in the first and second round of ESPN standard scoring, 10-team drafts, I don’t consider them.
My annual “Do Not Draft” list certainly needs the appropriate context. We’re talking about value, but also positional depth and scarcity, and while Rodgers and Luck -- and who knows, perhaps Peyton Manning one more time -- are all kinds of spectacular, I still like to construct a fantasy roster loaded with the flex-eligible options, running backs and wide receivers, in the early rounds. Perhaps you’re not a fan of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo or the New York Giants’ Eli Manning, but I’m definitely on board with choosing them after Round 7, when I’ve already secured a strong base of running backs and wide receivers. We know there will be injuries. Get more options than you need.
While I rank Rodgers and Luck as third-rounders, they’re obviously not lasting that long in ESPN average live drafts, which is where the comparison points enter for this project. A season ago, Peyton Manning ended up a crazy fourth overall in average draft position, and Rodgers and New Orleans’ Drew Breeswere going later in the first round, or close to it. I can’t do that. There are monster wide receivers still available there and important running backs. Look, you know about ESPN’s #MockDraftMonday, and I’ve tried selecting a quarterback early in mocks, and I never like my team. I like it with Carolina'sCam Newton, certainly underrated now, joining my team in Round 8 -- or even better, Miami’s Ryan Tannehill, a top-10 fantasy quarterback a year ago, in Round 11. That’s value.
The bottom line on my “Do Not Draft” list is that in most every case I certainlywould draft the player, but not at the cost I’m seeing in drafts and auctions. Value is key, just like statistics. Quarterbacks and tight ends just do not show up as top-10 value-based selections, ever, due to the depth at their positions. It’s always running backs and wide receivers. Throw six or seven on your team right away and hope five are really, really worth it, then get your quarterback and tight end. There are myriad ways to construct a successful fantasy roster, and maybe you wish to go with the best tight end and quarterback with your first several picks. You could win. Or you could be hoping DeAngelo Williams works out as a RB2. Could happen, I guess. Probably not.
For this year’s annual blog entry on who I am not drafting, I’m simply going in order of current ESPN ADP.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (seventh in ADP): Great player, great guy, terrible value. Get a great running back or wide receiver.
DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (eighth in ADP): Last season's numbers are not happening again, even in this potentially awesome offense. He could lose more than 100 touches. Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles will be involved. I worry about injury. I’ll take Murray in the second round, not the first.
Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts (12th in ADP): People occasionally ask me how the top scorers can be bad values. Add up the fantasy points for Luck plus most seventh-round running backs versus Broncos wide receiverDemaryius Thomas or Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant plusNewton/Romo/Eli Manning/Tannehill. You should know how this ends.
Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots (15th in ADP): I’m well aware he stayed injury-free last season and I applaud him, but he’s still a huge risk this early. We cannot simply disregard his past woes, his current September quarterback, the position depth or the fact he has never finished top-10 in value-based drafting. Giants stud Odell Beckham Jr. is going a pick later. Take the sophomore and then Tennessee Titans tight end Delanie Walker in Round 12.
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (22nd in ADP): I believe this point has been made clear. Let’s ignore quarterback for this exercise the rest of the way. Peyton Manning is going 23rd, by the way. Way too generous.
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks (27th in ADP): There’s no way he puts up the numbers you want, that you covet, unless Seattle drastically alters its offense, and that’s just not happening. They run. Like, a ton. I do have Graham projected as the No. 2 tight end, but not this early.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers (43rd in ADP): I tried and just can’t do it. I originally ranked Stewart, who has made fantasy owners suffer for years and certainly not only because he was in an annoying time-share, in this region. I just can’t pick him here. How can we possibly project 16 games? I know all the reasons why people love him from brief glimpses last season, why they call him underrated, but I can’t trust him. The health, the goal-line looks, nothing. I have to choose him a round or two later or let someone else deal with it.
Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams (47th in ADP): I had to lower my rank on him as well, because I simply wasn’t choosing him in drafts. I want to win now. Today. There’s obviously major upside here, but the difference between Gurley and Pittsburgh Steelers star Le'Veon Bell, whom I rank first overall despite him missing multiple games, is clear: Gurley remains unproven and I think he’s going to miss more games than Bell, more than we think overall. In a dynasty format, I’m all-in on the exciting rookie, but as the fifth player on my roster for 2015, knowing how scarce reliable running back depth is, I’m not. GetTre Mason a few rounds later, because even when Gurley is ready, he’s not simply going away.
Seahawks defense (48th in ADP): You’re kidding, right? Fifth round? Over potential starting running backs in Dallas, Oakland, Arizona, Detroit, Jacksonville, etc.? That’s foolish. All kinds of foolish. This wasn’t even fantasy’s No. 1 scoring unit last season. I’m not saying these are the Chicago Bears, because that’s a terrible defense, but take your defenses after Round 14. Always. I’ll leave out all the other defenses going in the top 100. There’s simply no justification, as is happening in ESPN ADP, to take the Buffalo Bills beforeDetroit Lions rookie Ameer Abdullah -- none.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins (54th in ADP): Silly you, thinking the numbers he put up in his walk season with the Eagles would happen again. Way different offense, and Jackson isn’t a volume receiver. He makes big plays and yes, he did make them last season. He was top-20 at the position in standard formats, though how he does it is also an issue, with so many games of nothing. It’s just dangerous to rely on big plays for fantasy; he’s already injured and while I can’t measure this, I wonder about his motivation. The team is a wreck. Ultimately, Jackson, who correctly appeared on this list a year ago, has topped 63 receptions in one season, and I doubt it happens again. I have Jackson ranked somewhere in this area, but because of how I construct teams, I always choose someone else with upside, like Oakland's Amari Cooperor wait a few rounds for Pittsburgh's Martavis Bryant and Jacksonville’s Allen Robinson.
Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars (69th in ADP): I’m actually a little disappointed he got hurt because so many people had been taking him in the first seven rounds, and I never would. You know how nice it is when you’ve got a few players queued up and they don’t go before your pick? That seems to be happening a lot for me with regard to Thomas. I wasn’t selecting him. The busted finger will scare people away now, because he might miss September action, but make no mistake, the version we saw in Denver can’t possibly put up numbers with Blake Bortles throwing to him, regardless of how great an athlete he is. Not big numbers. Before the injury, I had Thomas ranked 50 spots worse than this ADP for a reason.
C.J. Spiller, RB, New Orleans Saints (74th in ADP): How many times do you need to be disappointed by this fellow? Honestly, haven’t you had enough yet? Mark Ingram is the starter, in the traditional running back role. And they’ve got Brees, and you know he’s throwing plenty. I’ll surely consider Spiller, currently on the shelf after minor knee surgery, in PPR formats, but for standard, pass here.

Insert kicker's name here: The Patriots’ Stephen Gostkowski should be the first pick of the 16th round -- in every standard league. Not an eighth-rounder, which apparently is where he is going. All kickers go in the last round. Rinse and repeat.

Darren McFadden, RB, Cowboys (91st in ADP): I don’t know ifJoseph Randle can be “the guy,” but I’m quite certain broken down McFadden can’t be. There are other running backs going in the same region I’m not fond of for big standard-league stats, like Tampa Bay's Doug Martin, the Giants’ Shane Vereen, and name a Cleveland Browns running back, but I’d still take them at the back end of the top 100 anyway. Not so much with McFadden.
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</article>Victor Cruz, WR, Giants (111th in ADP): I do hope he salsas his way back into our collective hearts, but there’s a flashy sophomore receiver standing (with healthy knees) in the way now, and Cruz, aiming to return soon after shredding a knee, hasn’t been worth it since 2012. Even this late, find someone else.
Percy Harvin, WR, Buffalo Bills (124th in ADP): Usually this late I would say there are no bad picks, but in Harvin’s case, it’s just never worth it. He’s certainly talented, but health is a skill and he doesn’t have it. He has 52 receptions . . . the past three regular seasons combined. Find another late-round upside pick. Green Bay's Davante Adams, Arizona’s John Brown and Denver'sCody Latimer all qualify.

Who perhaps surprisingly is not on my “Do Not Draft” list: Let’s start with Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson. I might not take him third overall, because I don’t believe missing an entire season is such a great thing for a 30-year-old running back, but I’d take him fifth or sixth. We’re splitting hairs here. … I’d select Detroit Lions stud Calvin Johnson if he slips to his current ADP of 18, but I haven’t seen him slip that far in drafts. … I don’t believe San Diego Chargers rook Melvin Gordon will play on third downs or catch passes, but even if he’s Redskins running back Alfred Morris statistically, his ADP works. … Baltimore Ravens running back Justin Forsett is actually on my “do draft” list. I’m surprised so many people dislike him. Um, why can’t he do that again? … Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is going late enough in drafts to avoid my list. … Same with overrated Titans running backBishop Sankey. I don’t know who will lead the Titans in rushing, but it sure doesn’t look like it will be Sankey. But in Round 11, sure, take a chance. … As for the rookie passers, I don’t think Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston or Tennessee'sMarcus Mariota will be good for fantasy this season, but in Round 13 or later, go for it. There’s little risk because anyone with a top-10 quarterback not namedTom Brady can simply choose a bye-week backup in October.

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2015

[h=1]Love/Hate for 2015[/h]Matthew Berry, Fantasy

"Really?" I laughed. "You're kidding."
"Nope. Wait 'til you see it. It's hilarious."
I am on the phone with my younger brother, Jonathan. Just back from a visit to see our parents, during which he had been rummaging around in the attic and made an important discovery.
Movies.
Home movies, of my brother and me as little kids.
Crazy.
These days, of course, everyone has video on their phone, and before that camcorders were the rage for a while. But you have to remember, even though I mask it well with my very youthful appearance and the way I keep up with the teenyboppers by interacting with them on the MySpace, I am actually older than you think. So when I grew up, no one had a cellphone, camcorder or even Polaroid cameras. I only have some photos from my childhood. At least that's what I thought.
It turns out my parents had one of those old 8 mm film cameras and, more surprisingly, actually knew how to use it. ("Honey, can you record 'The Blacklist' tonight?" is the way my dad works the DVR.) Anyway, not only had they used it but incredibly they had kept -- for four decades in some old box -- the films they made, and now Jonathan had found them.

I dove right into watching them, fascinated. About 30 minutes in total, they are a number of smaller films spliced together. They have no sound, I am between 3 and 5 years old in them, and it's entirely me doing typical kid stuff: riding down my driveway on a scooter, feeding ducks, playing catch while wearing a sweet Steve Austin "Six Million Dollar Man" T-shirt. I'm running around a park, playing in a sandbox, riding on my dad's shoulders.
But mostly, I'm smiling.
I don't have a cellphone beeping and ringing, demanding my attention every single second. I don't have a deadline looming over my head. I have a crazy amount of hair.
And now, as I watch it again, I'm smiling again.
That kid is carefree. He's not self-conscious, he's not overthinking anything, he is in the moment and not distracted.
He's pretty much everything I'm not.
Make no mistake, I'm a blessed individual. I'm not complaining about how life turned out for me at all. But I'd be lying if I said there isn't a part of me that wonders what happened on the journey from my dad's shoulders to Bristol, Connecticut.
I mean, I know some of the things that helped shape how I am, but that's just one piece of the puzzle. Growing older, getting married, having a job and kids ... all of it brings responsibility and it's a bit Pollyannaish, of course, to compare the experience of being an adult to that of a young child. I get that.
But still, as I watch the film, I'm wistful. To have that attitude again. To still have that mindset. To have no worries. To not be cynical but, rather, to still have pure, unadulterated hope. I've watched it many times now, and as I watched I realized that, although the kid I was looking at didn't remind me of me anymore, he did remind me of someone else I knew.
My daughters.
They are 3½ years old, about the age I was when much of that was shot.
I was swimming with them last weekend. We have those foam noodles, right? The long colorful ones that float? So we're playing in the pool and one of them says, "Merry-go-round, Daddy." I know exactly what she means, so each girl grabs a noodle and with one noodle in each hand, I spin the girls around in the pool, each of them holding onto a noodle.
The sun is shining bright; the water is perfect; and both girls are smiling from ear to ear. "More, Daddy! Keep going!" Every time I claim fatigue, they want "just a little while longer." And then they giggle, which is only the best sound in the universe. I am helpless to resist. Smiling myself, we go again, me pulling them around the pool, backward and forward, doing figure eights, fast and then slow and then fast again, all to the screams of delight and giggles.
And as I am pulling them around, I think to myself ... I don't want this moment to end.
Eventually they have had enough, and, as we get out of the pool, my wife is smiling at me. I turn to her and I whisper, "I want them to stay little forever." She just smiles and nods knowingly. She married a sap.
With my daughters, I try to just enjoy the moment and not think too much about the future. But watching this film made me start thinking about what will it be like when they watch video of themselves 40 years from now. What will their reaction be? What will their journey be, and how can I help influence that in a positive way, while still letting them find their own way?
These thoughts aren't unique to me, of course. Every parent has them, but as someone who came to parenthood later in life than most, it's a fairly new mindset to me.
One of my daughters is a flower child type. A true stop-and-smell-the-roses girl, she is in no hurry to get anywhere, finding wonderment in almost everything, exclaiming excitedly at anything she finds. "Look Daddy, a flower!" She's a mush ball and also likes to be in her own world, happy to play with her sister or by herself equally. The other one is the boss. She wants to take care of everyone and everything. She's the tough one. She'll go up to our 10-year-old and say, with a big smile, "Let's fight!"
And sure enough, the 10-year-old will get on the floor with her and they'll "wrestle." He's great with both of his sisters, incidentally. When she's not being tough, she's much more social than the other and, when at home, she constantly wants to be held.
They couldn't be more different personalities, but they have a couple of things in common. Things that a lot of kids share, I'm sure. Things they share with the 3-year-old me on the film. They are happy and carefree. They have hope. They are not cynical.

None of the kids (my daughters or me from 40 years ago) has been disappointed yet. These kids haven't learned about the real world and what it can be like sometimes. They haven't had their hearts broken, haven't had someone lie to their face, haven't had someone call them a name or worse. They haven't figured out we live in a world where I don't want to show a picture of them or print their names because some people might exploit that. They know none of this. Their hope, their heart, their spirit ... are fully intact. I want it to stay that way forever.
That's what I mean when I say I want them to stay little forever. I love being Daddy, I love them running and jumping in my arms when I come home at night, but that's not what I'm trying to hang on to. It's that innocence. Those smiles. That hope.
So I am trying to reconcile the fact that, much as I might want to, I can't control everything that happens to them. When we draft a fantasy football team, similar emotions run through us. We draft with the best intentions. We have love in our eyes and hope in our hearts that nothing bad will happen to the players. We will do everything in our power to protect them and put them in the best possible position. We hope that they will make us proud and happy and that the feeling we have on draft day will stay forever. But ultimately, there's only so much you can do. They will have to find their own way, and you should remember that.
My kids make fun of me because I take lots of videos of all of them from the boys' sporting events to the girls' tea parties. The older ones roll their eyes and call me overly sentimental. They're not wrong. But 40 years from now, I want them to watch these videos and not feel, even for a brief second, wistful about how they were as kids and question how they are as an adult. I want them to reflect on the journey they went on, to know they did the best they could, to know they have been loved and are loved.
But mostly, I want them to smile.
Here's to hoping, when you reflect on your journey at the end of this season, you've got a smile, too.
Which brings us, meandering slowly, into this year's Love/Hate. Before we dive right in, a few ground rules:
I hate the terms "sleeper" and "bust." I write this every year, but people have short memories (You've already forgotten I pushed Cordarrelle Patterson last year, right? No? Crap.), so it's always good to have a refresher.
I believe there is no such thing as a "sleeper" or a "bust." To put it another way, every player can be either a sleeper or a bust. It comes down to what it costs to acquire said player and whether that player exceeds or falls short of that cost.
Not to get all business-y -- which I'm positive is an actual word -- on you, but a common and basic business term is return on investment, or ROI. Let's say you started a company called "Talented Mr. Cocoa." You sold two products: a delicious hot chocolate drink and yummy mini marshmallows. Suddenly you find out I had a beer with Roger Cossack, who told me I should sue you. So I do. Now you have to downsize from two products to one to pay for your lawyer.
If the hot chocolate sold for $1 and the marshmallows for 50 cents and they both sell equally well, you'd think you'd want to keep selling the hot chocolate for $1, right? But what if it costs you 75 cents to produce each cup of the $1 hot chocolate and just 10 cents to make the 50-cent marshmallow? You make 40 cents on the marshmallows and just 25 cents on the hot chocolate. You'd cut the hot chocolate because your ROI on the marshmallows is higher than the ROI on the hot chocolate -- until the judge throws it out because he realizes I stole my name from a Matt Damon movie and you can't steal something that is stolen. The whole thing was a waste of time, and the judge calls me an idiot. Then I block him on Twitter, and it becomes a whole thing.
I seem to have digressed. The point is fantasy is the same way in terms of ROI: Every player has value. Every single one.
It's about what it costs to get each player. Often, a player's value is baked into his draft price. There's a reason Aaron Rodgers goes early in drafts and Blake Bortles does not. But sometimes, players are not properly valued, and avoiding overpriced players while getting production at below-market prices is how you win fantasy football. Which brings us to this column, which is all about players who, based on ESPN.com draft results for standard 10-team leagues, cost too much (or not enough).
Please use this column as intended.
It is NOT a sleepers-and-busts column. Rather, it's a market-inefficiency column. With puns.
Here's what I did: I went to ESPN.com's average draft position (ADP) page. This is a list of the average rounds in which players are being drafted in ESPN standard 10-team leagues.
Then I made a list of players who are going too high or too low in those drafts. Soon, I will write about them.
Before we get there, a quick word about ADP. Average draft position varies greatly -- and I mean greatly -- from site to site. So while we hope everyone plays for free with us here at ESPN.com (or via our No. 1 mobile app!), we know not all of you do. But I had to pick a list, so I picked the one here on ESPN.com because, you know, company man and all that. So while Joseph Randle's average pick is currently 55th on ESPN, his ADP on one of our competitors is pick 73. On another of our competitors, he is pick 46, and, on a well-respected mock draft site, he is going at pick 31. He's all over the place, so it's important you know what the ADP is wherever you play. In fact, a quick, helpful exercise is to go through that site's ADP with whatever rankings you plan to bring to the draft and see what players you "love" or "hate."
Personally, I have Randle at 35 this year, so based on ESPN.com's ADP, he is a "Love" for me in Round 6 (where he is going in ESPN leagues), given that I have him as a fourth-rounder. By doing it this way (round by round), you'll have an idea of who is a value in each round and whom to avoid at that price. As I go through each round, if a player is going too low for me, he's a "Love." If he's being drafted too high, he's a "Hate." It's that simple.
Just because I "love" Nelson Agholor this year and "hate" Calvin Johnson does not mean I recommend drafting Agholor over Megatron. It means at Agholor's current, 10th-round price, I love his value (I have him as an eighth-rounder), and given Calvin's knees, the more conservative Lions offense and other available options, Calvin is a third-rounder for me this year, not the top-18 guy he's currently being selected as.
Now, not only is this not a sleepers-and-busts list but it's also not a comprehensive list of players I really like or don't like. For example, I absolutelylove Brandin Cooks this year, but I have him ranked as a No. 2 fantasy WR, which is where he is going, so he doesn't make the list.
If you want a comprehensive list of whom I value and where, please check out my top-200 rankings, which will be updated throughout the preseason.
Addressing the last (fingers crossed) of the questions I get every year, people wonder why there are so many more loves than hates. That's just the nature of the beast. It doesn't do you any good to say I hate Nick Foles. His value and rank already reflect that he is not highly thought of. I'm still going round by round, and in a standard ESPN league, there are 16 rounds, so you're getting at least 16 hates.
But be aware that, in general, I am from the "no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12" school of thought. That means you're really choosing "hate" only from the guys who are considered at a high enough level to be drafted with big expectations, which pretty much eliminates most guys in the lower rounds.
Finally, please remember this is being written in the middle of August. Only one week of preseason games has been played; camps haven't been open that long; and much can and will change in the next month. Fantasy value changes all the time. Roles and opportunities, information about players and schemes, draft trends, health, and results in the preseason all play a factor, and if you refuse to keep your mind open and are unwilling to change an opinion of a player once you get new info, that's a quick way to lose. The next few weeks are crucial.
So follow me on Twitter and become my friend on Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, the Fantasy Life app and whatever new app will be invented this week. Listen to our daily Fantasy Focus podcast, watch "Fantasy Football Kickoff" at 3 p.m. ET Tuesdays on ESPN (from now throughout the season), read all the articles, news blurbs and rankings updates, watch the preseason games until it's time to draft, and then make the decision.
If you choose to ignore that, don't blame me for it. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tool. That's all I am -- your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, given that I've used that joke six years in a row now. Huh. Ah, what are you gonna do? I'm a slave to tradition.
[h=2]Players I Love for 2015[/h]Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (going third overall; I have him first):Make no mistake: The moral side does not love this. He's an obvious name, but he's my No. 1, and at the top of the draft board you have to nitpick, so I wanted to make the case as to why he's No. 1 for me. He has scored double-digit touchdowns every season he has played in the NFL (except, ahem, last year), and he is a better pass-catcher than he gets credit for. In Norv Turner's offense, he will catch balls, lots and lots of balls. (Heh heh, I said Norv). Turner has always thrown to his running backs; just last season, Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon(Asiata and McKinnon!) caught 71 balls between them. Obviously, Peterson will be on the field close to the amount of time those two were in 2014, and if you look at Peterson's career, he has had two seasons in which he caught at least 40 balls. They were 2009 and 2012, the two best fantasy years of his career and two of the three years he played all 16 games. It makes sense: Turner wants to get AP in space and avoid ramming him into the line constantly. Adding Mike Wallace, getting (in theory) full seasons out of Kyle Rudolph and Charles Johnson, a healthier offensive line and Teddy Bridgewater now in his second year in this offense? I'm not worried about Peterson's age (he's a physical freak of nature who is a year younger in football terms), not worried about his year off (I count it as a positive) and not worried I wrote an article about why Jamaal Charles should be No. 1 (Peterson was still holding out when I said I'd make the case for him). I get that you don't want to vote him father of the year, but he's the No. 1 pick this year.
Jeremy Hill, RB, Bengals (going in second round; I have him as a first-rounder): Sixth in fantasy points last season from Week 8 on, Hill averaged more than 5 yards per rush on 222 carries. Why is that important? I mentioned this in 100 Facts, but I like it so much I'm repeating it here: Since 2001, there have been only two rookie running backs who had as many carries as Hill and averaged more yards per carry than Hill's 5.1. Those players? Adrian Peterson and Clinton Portis. Both of them finished as top-five fantasy running backs in their second NFL season. Of course, one of them started wearing crazy wigs to news conferences, so heads up, Jeremy, the future isn't 100 percent rosy. Two more stats that blow me away about Hill: In the second half of the 2014 season, only Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy totaled more rushing yards after contact than Hill did. In addition, only six running backs had more runs of 20-plus yards in 2014, and Hill didn't even start the whole season. So, he's tough to tackle and has big-play ability. Got it. Hill is a first-round player going in the second. Enjoy it now because next year there's no way you're getting him there.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons (drafted as WR7; I have him as WR3): Playing for a contract? You could do worse than getting Kyle Shanahan as your offensive coordinator. Kyle loves to feed the "X" receiver, and feed him he shall.Andre Johnson in Houston, Pierre Garcon in 2013 with Washington ... both guys had big fantasy success under Shanahan, both with QBs who aren't nearly as good as Matt Ryan. Jones could easily be the top receiver this season in targets and fantasy points.
Alfred Morris, RB, Washington (fourth round; me: late second): Since Alf entered the league in 2012, only two running backs have averaged 1,200 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns a season: Marshawn Lynch and ... Alfred Morris. He is super boring, and no one will ooh and ahh at you when you draft him, like they will when you take, say, Jeremy Hill. But whatever. He's also safe, and make no mistake: Washington wants to run the crap out of the ball this year. Limit what Robert Griffin III has to do, control the clock, ram it down people's throats, and help set up play-action. Try to be Dallas Lite this year. Whether it will be successful remains to be seen (which way are you voting?), but either way, Morris' volume will get him to another 1,200-yard, nine-touchdown season.
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins (ADP: fourth round; me: third round):The sun comes up, the sun goes down, and I am defending Lamar Miller. This is the third straight year Miller has been a "love" of mine, and while it is a lot easier to defend him after the previous season than it was the year before (everyone else had jumped off the bandwagon), the fact is he's still getting no respect. Critics point to his lack of touches, and I'm like ... uh, OK, he's not DeMarco Murray, but he was 13th in the NFL with 254 offensive touches. That's more than Jamaal Charles and only one fewer than Mark Ingram. But it's not about the touches, it's about the quality (I tell that to my wife all the time). Dude averaged 5.1 yards per carry, including an NFL-best 5.8 yards per carry versus base defenses, per Pro Football Focus. He's a rock-solid RB2 with RB1 upside (I expect the Dolphins to be better this season, with increased scoring opportunities). I'm not worried about Miller's competition, which is underwhelming or inexperienced (and banged up).
Frank Gore, RB, Colts (ADP: fifth round; me: late second or early third): When the apocalypse comes -- and it's coming -- the only beings that will survive are Frank Gore and people who look exactly like Frank Gore because, in an apocalypse, everything gets nutty and it's hard to concentrate. It'll be easier for the zombies to not mess with anyone who might or might not be Frank Gore and focus their efforts on the rest of us pathetic humans. Frank Gore will not die. He's like a Twinkie, if that Twinkie were filled with tasty fantasy points, that is! Now in Indy, the vampire that is Gore is primed for his best fantasy season in some time. You probably guessed the whole Frank Gore-is-secretly-undead thing, but did you know he was a top-20 fantasy running back in 2014? That he was 13th among running backs in total yards from scrimmage? Just scoring was down, but that's going to change on the Colts, as Indy scored 14 -- count 'em, 14 -- more red zone touchdowns than the 49ers last season (I see no reason that will change this season). Gore is a solid pass protector and blocker, which is among the reasons he was brought in. He'll be on the field for a lot of passing downs, which is also nice. The past three seasons, the Colts have averaged 90 targets to their running backs, 70 receptions and a little more than four receiving touchdowns a year. If Ahmad Bradshaw could be the sixth-best running back in fantasy from Weeks 1 to 9 last season (before he got hurt), I feel very confident Gore will drink your blood. Wait! I mean he'll be a high-upside RB2.
Andre Johnson, WR, Colts (ADP: sixth round; me: fourth round):Speaking of old guys on the Colts, I don't think Johnson is done. The eye test for me said he just had putrid QB play in 2014 -- not a significant downtick in skills. Johnson is not a guy who needs a lot of separation at the line to be "open"; you get it near him and he'll catch it, regardless of where the defender is. To sayAndrew Luck is the best quarterback Johnson has ever played with is an insult to Luck because it pretends some of the stiffs Johnson played with in the past actually play the same position as Luck. It's not close at all. The Colts had 20 more touchdown passes than the Texans last season, and even though Andre won't see 145 targets again, it's worth noting Reggie Wayne limped his way to 116 targets in 2014. I'm not worried about reports of Johnson not playing every down or even the "Luck spreads it around" argument. No team threw more than Indy last season, and it will be another high-volume attack, with Johnson seeing fewer double-teams than ever before. I believe Johnson has at least one more big season left in him, and I'm along for the ride.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots (ADP: eighth round; me: fifth round): There are two stats that tell you everything you need to know about Blount this year. In 26 career games with the Patriots (including playoffs), Blount has 17 touchdowns. In those 26 games, he has carried the ball 289 times, and had just two fumbles. Bill Belichick trusts him, and the Pats don't have anyone else. Stop with the Jonas Gray talk. The Patriots like Jonas Gray so much that, a week after Gray ran for four touchdowns, Belichick called Blount off his couch to play for them. Late to a meeting, schmeeting. Blount was literally on his couch, and Bill still wanted him over the four-touchdown guy. Fear of Blount being a two-down back, the whole Patriots RB musical chair thing, the minor injury and the one-game suspension have dropped his draft price significantly ... but this guy will finish as a top-20 RB on a per-game basis, and he isn't being drafted anywhere near it.
The New York Jets: Look, before you ... (ducks) OK, hang on one sec (ducks again) ... If you just let -- hey, that hurt -- wait, OK? Wait! (ducks one last time). Listen, I'm not saying they are great. Just saying they are going dirt cheap and they will be better than you think. Chan Gailey is a strong offensive mind.Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are two nice, big targets who, in lost years on bad teams last season, still had eight TDs (Marshall) and almost 1,000 yards (Decker). Chris Ivory is a solid running back, and you could do worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.
In fact, in Buffalo (when Gailey was the head coach) from 2010 to '13, Fitzpatrick never had fewer than 23 touchdown passes in a season, and most of those were before the NFL made it crazy easy to pass. Stevie Johnson had three straight 1,000-yard seasons and averaged a little more than seven touchdowns a year. The No. 2 wideout -- a motley crew of guys such as David Nelson, Donald Jones and Lee Evans -- even combined for 15 TDs in three seasons. Marshall and Decker are better football players than any of those guys, and they're nice, big targets for Fitzy. And don't forget Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller combined for 32 touchdowns in those three seasons. Ivory isn't amazing, but he'll be a starting running back on a decent (not great, but decent) offense, and he's going in the ninth round. Marshall and Decker are going in the seventh and eighth, respectively, and I have all three ranked above where they are going. OK, now I'm done. (Ducks again. And again. Everything flying. Runs off stage).
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs (ADP: eighth round; me: sixth round): He was originally a hate for me. Leaving Philly and going to KC and short-armedAlex Smith? No, thanks. But you know what? The hate has gone too far. He's not a top-10 wideout like last season, of course, but going in the eighth round, next to Mike Wallace? A guy who will be a target monster with an accurate QB under a coach he has had lots of success with before? Maclin's a WR3 with mid-WR2 upside (especially in PPR), and he's being drafted like he's dead. He's not dead; he's just in Kansas City.
Detroit Lions running backs: Excuse me. Sorry. Pardon me. Right. No, just trying to ... yeah ... oof ... sorry ... that corner there ... right. If you could just scooch ... great. And you, ma'am, if you'll just take a step to your left, and if you could bend your knees, sir, and I'll just squeeze by ... oops, sorry. Sorry. Whoops! Didn't see your foot. Sorry. Just one more ... ahhhh. There you go. See? Still room on the Ameer Abdullah bandwagon.
I'm on board with Abdullah at his current draft price -- I have him as a sixth-rounder, and he's currently going in the 11th, but that's going to rise very quickly -- but there will come a point when the price is too, er, pricey. Meanwhile, all the Abdullah hype is killing interest in Joique Bell. I get it: He's not sexy, he's hurt, likely splitting carries, but still. He'll be the goal-line thumper and get at least some early-down work. As with Maclin, the hate has gone too far. Bell is absolutely worth his eighth-round draft price.
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (ADP: eighth round; me: eighth round): As of this writing, I don't know how many games he's going to miss, but for the sake of argument, let's say it's four games. Once Rob Gronkowski was healthy and the Patriots got their offensive line figured out last season (Week 5), Brady averaged 19 fantasy points per game from that point until Week 17. That's exactly the same as Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. Only Aaron Rodgers averaged more. Returning the majority of his offensive starters (a rarity for Brady) and, shall we say, motivated, I love Brady this year if you wait on your QB. In general, I think QBs go too early in ESPN drafts; hence, I have Brady ranked in the same area he's being drafted, but I have almost all other QBs ranked below where they are going. So, yeah ... remember, we play a weekly game. Brady plus however many weeks of a replacement-level QB play is probably still QB6 or QB7 this season. And when Brady gets back, you know what's happening, right? Up 45-0 in the fourth quarter, Patriots have the ball on fourth down, and they're gonna be passing. Oh, Tom's not coming out. The Pats will be in total and complete "blank you" mode. Free Brady!
Cleveland Browns running backs: Isaiah Crowell is going in the 10th round, Duke Johnson is going in the 14th, and I like both in eighth-to-10th-round range. Because what's Cleveland going to do, throw it? Exactly. In the first five weeks of last season (when Alex Mack was still healthy), the Browns had the second-most red zone rushing yards and the fourth-most rushing yards before contact in the red zone. Only one team (the Saints) had more red zone rushing touchdowns. And for the entire season, only the Patriots converted more rushing touchdowns inside an opponent's 10-yard line. Crowell will be the hammer, and Johnson, if he can get healthy, is someone who can play at receiver or line up in the backfield and carry the ball. The Browns will get creative with Johnson. They're not amazing, but both of these guys are way undervalued. The Browns have a lot of holes, but they can run the ball.
Joseph Randle, RB, Cowboys (ADP: sixth round; me: fourth round) and C.J. Spiller, RB, Saints (ADP: eighth round; me: sixth round):These are two very different running backs, but I am including them together because I feel like it boils down to one thing with each guy. Oh, I can talk up Randle's success in limited time and the Cowboys' O-line, and I can point to success pass-catching backs have had in New Orleans (with much less talent than Spiller has) and the lack of competition for touches (plus the emphasis on running the ball), but really, you either believe or you don't.
I believe.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins (ADP: QB13; me: QB11): The Dolphins added a ton of weapons; it's Tannehill's second year in Bill Lazor's offense; and Tannehill is a better runner than he gets credit for (top five in rushing yards among QBs). Tannehill takes the next step this season and builds on 2014's top-10 campaign. (Yes, he was top-10 last season.)
Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars (ADP: ninth round; me: seventh round): Robinson is another trendy sleeper pick among many in the fantasy community. I love his talent, and I'm not alone. So does Blake Bortles. Before A-Rob (as only I call him) was injured, he was seventh among wide receivers in targets over his final eight games. The Jags will continue to force-feed him the ball. Believe the hype.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Steelers (ADP: 10th round; me: seventh round): Good. Keep talking up Markus Wheaton, Big Ben. Keep Bryant's price down. We both know Bryant is the better player and bigger-play guy. Last season, Bryant had 26 receptions and averaged more than 21 yards a catch. That hadn't happened in the NFL since 2010. There will be a regression in his crazy touchdown rate from 2014, but there will also be a lot more snaps for him. Just remember, you can't spell Martavis without the letters TD. What's that? Sorry, I've already moved on.
Arian Foster, RB, Texans (ADP: 10th round; me: seventh round): He is the ultimate lottery ticket, so I have no issue taking Foster in the seventh or eighth round. I did a draft recently in which I got Foster in the eighth. My thinking was very simple: I had my starting running backs at that point, so I didn't "need" Foster, but he's the kind of player who can win you a league if he comes back healthy at any point. There's no one in the seventh round who has as much upside -- proven upside, at least -- as Foster. Given that his medical prognosis is getting more optimistic, why not take that flier? It's a weekly game, and we play for the end, not the start. The upside and talent of Foster are too great to ignore once you have your starting skill positions, so since I am willing to take him three rounds before he's going, he makes the love list.
Nelson Agholor, WR, Eagles (ADP: 10th round; me: eighth round):You know who is fantasy-friendly? Chip Kelly is fantasy-friendly. When Jeremy Maclin left town, he took 143 targets with him, and Agholor's ability as a route runner, combined with Chip's knack for getting his players in space ... all I can say is yummy. Seriously. I'm like 6,000 words into this thing. Yummy is all I have left.
Ryan Mathews, RB, Eagles (ADP: 10th round; me: eighth round): You know who is fantasy ... er, never mind. This is an offense that wants to run (when not throwing to sweet Nelson Agholor, that is!), and, even if DeMarco Murray stays healthy all season, Mathews should still get 10 to 12 touches per game behind a good offensive line on a team that will score a lot. He'll have serious flex appeal many weeks, along with the upside of a top-10 back if anything happens to DeMarco. And in the middle rounds, that kind of potential is absolutely worth grabbing.
Charles Johnson, WR, Vikings (ADP: 12th round; me: seventh round): Once he got into the lineup, Charles Johnson was a top-30 wide receiver from Week 12 on last season. He had all of six fewer fantasy points than Mike Wallace during that time frame. The fact that he is going four rounds later than Wallace is mind-boggling to me, especially given Wallace is on yet another new team (his third in four years) and Johnson already has a rapport with Teddy Bridgewater while getting even more comfortable in Norv Turner's fantasy-friendly offense. Dude is 6-foot-2, 217 pounds and runs a 4.3 40.

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Vikings (ADP: QB18; me: QB14): Once the aforementioned Johnson scored his first touchdown in Week 12, Teddy B was the 11th-best QB in fantasy from that point on. Now in his second year and much more familiar with the offense, he now has Mike Wallace, a healthy Kyle Rudolph, an improved offensive line, a full year of Johnson and, oh yeah, a running back returning you may have heard of. Going way too late.

Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals (ADP: QB23; me: QB16) andSam Bradford, QB, Eagles (drafted as QB25, I have as QB15): I'm listing them together because they're sort of the same in this sense: They are in good, fantasy-friendly offenses and are coming off injury. Palmer looks great to me, and all indications are (as I write this in Week 2 of the preseason) that Bradford will be ready for the season. These are my two favorite cheap options to pair with Brady, as both have favorable schedules to start the season. On a points-per-game basis in games that he finished, Palmer was the seventh-best QB in fantasy last season, averaging just over 18 points a game. Now with a better offensive line and an emerging John Brown, Palmer should have another good year of slinging it around.
Meanwhile, I love this stat: Since Chip Kelly took over the Eagles, only Drew Brees, Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning have more fantasy points than "Eagles QB." Now, some of that is inflated by Michael Vick's rushing, but whatever. A broken-down Michael Vick, Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez have combined for the fourth-most fantasy points among QBs the past two years. Insane. And Bradford's going as QB25! TWENTY-FIVE. Top-10 upside.
John Brown, WR, Cardinals (ADP: 14th round; me: 11th round): If I'm drafting an Arizona wideout, it's this guy. As our player card notes, dude had almost 700 yards and five touchdowns while having to play 10 games with the likes of Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley. Believe the hype.
Delanie Walker, TE, Titans (ADP: TE15; me: TE7): The Titans are gonna have to throw it to someone, and while Marcus Mariota is going to have his ups and downs, he's an upgrade over the other QBs the Titans have had in there recently. Walker was fourth in receiving yards among tight ends last season (Ken Whisenhunt's first coaching the team), and only four tight ends had more targets inside an opponent's 10-yard line. He was the ninth-best tight end in fantasy last season; the Titans improved the QB and somehow he drops six spots? I don't understand the Delanie Walker hate. He's played more than 700 snaps each of the past two seasons and is a strong option if you wait on tight end and want a solid option late.
Eddie Royal, WR, Bears (ADP: undrafted; me: 11th round): The injury to Kevin White hurts this one, but podcast listeners know I've been talking up Royal for a while now. He caught 91 balls from Jay Cutler as a rookie back in their days together in Denver, but there might be no crazier stat than the fact that Royal has 15 touchdowns the past two years combined (after catching just 10 total in his first five seasons). I think some of those are fluky, but with pass-catching options limited in Chicago due to injury and inexperience, Royal will be a huge PPR pick with nice standard upside at a fair, cheap price.
Others receiving votes
Here are some guys that are mostly not being drafted in standard leagues that I like to exceed their draft day price:
Heath Miller, TE, Steelers: Miller had more receptions, targets, yards, yards after contact per reception and routes run than Jason Witten last season. They are very close in almost every category except touchdowns, where Witten scored five and Miller scored three. Touchdowns are fluky. Witten is going in the seventh round, Miller is going in the 13th. The Steelers' passing offense is going to be just as good as, if not better than, the Cowboys.
David Cobb, RB, Titans: NO idea if he's any good yet; I just know he's better than Bishop Sankey, and someone has to run the ball there. You could do worse than a starting running back in the double-digit rounds.
DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins: I love Parker skills-wise, and if Odell Beckham Jr. taught us anything, it's that you don't have to be healthy -- or even play -- in the first handful of games to have a big impact. He also taught us you need to throw only within six feet of a receiver for a touchdown. I'm high on the Miami offense and Parker could be the best guy they have in the season's second half.
Davante Adams, WR, Packers: As I mentioned in the Manifesto this year, one type of player you should target is the player who could be elite at his position in a given week. If something happens to Jordy Nelson or Randall Cobb, Adams would be top-12. And even if Nelson and Cobb play all 16 games, the Packers run a lot of three-wide sets.
Brian Quick, WR, Rams: It didn't last long, but while he was healthy he was really, really good last season.
Andre Williams, RB, Giants: It's not like Rashad Jennings or Shane Vereenhave been the healthiest cats around, you dig?
Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers: They use him in goal-line packages, on third downs and if Melvin Gordon doesn't learn to hit holes harder, potentially more.
Cole Beasley, WR, Cowboys: Sneaky late PPR guy.
Michael Crabtree, WR, Raiders: Oakland was in the top five in pass attempts last season and they can't all go to Amari Cooper. Crabtree looked good to me in limited action, has been successful before and has something to prove.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills: If Taylor wins the starting job for Buffalo, mobile QBs can have a lot of sneaky value, even on a run-first team. Good stash for two-QB leagues.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Vikings: Sigh. Hope springs eternal.
[h=2]Players I Hate for 2015[/h]LeSean McCoy, RB, Bills (ADP: first round; me: late second round):So, literally, as I wrote this, McCoy left practice with a strained hamstring, which is super annoying for a lot of reasons. Obviously, you hate to see injuries for players themselves, their families, teammates and fans. And their owners who drafted early or have them in a keeper league. But hey, how about your friendly neighborhood Love/Hate writer? "Hates" are so tough to come up with. Most players that go high do so because they are good. Most that go late, do so because they are bad. So coming up with "Hates" is a pain every single year. And I felt strongly that McCoy was going way too early. But now, it's all probably moot because the hammy injury will drop him. Anyway, I'm sticking with him as my hate. Whatever you project for him, it's probably too much. Last year in Philly, per Pro Football Focus, McCoy had 56 percent of his carries against five-plus defensive backs, a much easier alignment to run against, naturally. This season, with questionable quarterback play, that number will decrease by a significant margin as teams dare Matt Cassel or Tyrod Taylor to beat them while they stack the box against Shady. If you own McCoy, you're rooting for Taylor over Cassel, but either way, I don't believe the volume will be enough for McCoy. Remember, last season, behind a much better offensive line in Philly, McCoy got 23 goal-to-go carries. He scored three touchdowns on those carries.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions (ADP: second round; me: third round):The pick that could easily blow up in my face the most, it just comes down to health for me on Megatron. Look, when Calvin Johnson is healthy, he amazing. The key word is "healthy." He missed three games last season and was a decoy for two others ... he basically killed you in five games last season. Even when he came back healthy after Week 9, he wasn't a top-five fantasy wide receiver for the rest of the season; he was sixth in fantasy points per game from Week 10 on, which is still very good, of course. It's just not what we are used to from the guy that used to be a consensus top-two pick at wide receiver. Now, not all is bad. I mean, even in a down year where he missed a lot of time, he still had more than 1,000 yards and eight scores ... he's Megatron, you know? And he says he's healthy this year. But he hasn't played 16 games in a season since 2012 and when you compare him to other wideouts who are younger (Johnson turns 30 in September) and are also consistently awesome, it's hard to risk Johnson in the first two rounds. The Lions keep going more balanced on offense (the Lions went from fifth in pass attempts in 2013 to 11th last season), so I still have him as a top-10 wideout, but I feel more comfortable with other guys in the first two rounds.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints (ADP: third/fourth round; me: sixth/seventh round): I take it back. This is the pick that could blow up in my face the most. But this is less about Brees and more about draft philosophy. If I don't get Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck this year, I want to wait at quarterback. Brees is a very good real-life QB and will have a fine season, but the days of him being an elite difference-maker the likes of Luck or Rodgers are done. Coming off a season in which he had his fewest yards, touchdowns, worst yards per attempt, and the second-most interceptions in the past four seasons, the way you correct that isnot by sending away three of his top five pass-catchers, including the guy with the most red zone touchdowns in the NFL during the past three seasons. But by getting rid of Jimmy Graham, Kenny Stills and Pierre Thomas, bringing back Mark Ingram and improving the offensive line, all indications are the team wants a more balanced attack this season, focused on running the ball. Of course, he's still gonna throw the ball, but with the aging Marques Colston, injury-prone C.J. Spiller along with young and unproven guys like Nick Toon,Brandon Coleman and Josh Hill, only Brandin Cooks makes you feel confident, and even he is young and coming off injury. I actually think Cooks will have a monster season, but Brees is not significantly better than a lot of the mid-tier QBs; he's just being drafted like he is.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills (ADP: fifth round; me: eighth round): Can he throw it to himself? No? Then we'll revisit you next year, Sammy. I swear, I'm not picking on you guys, Bills fans. I love your defense! Just this is too pricey for a wideout who scored 50 percent of his fantasy points last season in three games. When he's great, he's, er, great, but with a shaky QB, constant nicks and a conservative offense, those games will be too few and far between for a fifth-round pick. If he were on a different team it's a different conversation, but he's not, so when you look at guys going rounds after him, I can't justify a fifth-round price.
DeSean Jackson, WR, Redskins (ADP: sixth round; me: seventh round): Another boom-or-bust guy, we like to call them "fantasy whack-a-moles" on the podcast. (Now available every day at ESPN.com/podcenter or on iTunes, he said pimpingly. New co-host Field Yates!). Last year, every single game DeSean Jackson had was either over 12 points or under six. That's it. No in-between. He can win you some weeks but is otherwise too inconsistent for me, especially with more of an emphasis on the run game for Washington this season. Now, they do want to use play-action more, so that will help Jackson some, but the shoulder injury isn't helping, and who knows what Washington will get out of the QB position this season. I like Jackson much more on my real-life team than my fantasy one.
Seattle D/ST (ADP: sixth round; me: 15th round): Every year I do this and it seems a little like shooting fish in a mock draft, or something like that, but this is based on actual draft results from actual ESPN drafts. I'm not making this up. The Seahawks' defense is getting drafted, on average, in the sixth round. Just know these two simple facts: Last year, four of the five highest-scoring fantasy defenses (Bills, Eagles, Texans and Lions) were drafted outside the top 10 on ESPN. The top drafted defense, Seattle, posted an average weekly finish of 18th among D/STs through the first seven weeks. Had you just started the team that played the Jaguars every week last year you'd have had the best fantasy defense in the game, 43 points better than the current No. 1. That's impossible, of course, but it just goes to show the benefits of streaming a defense. Do not take a defense until the very late rounds and if someone else does so at your draft, I demand you get up, right then and there, laugh at them, point at them and say, "Matthew Berry thinks you're an idiot." Because I do.
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys (ADP: seventh round; me: eighth/ninth round): See Miller, Heath.
Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals (ADP: seventh round; me: 10th round): Oh, how the mighty have fallen. A popular pick early in drafts last year (and I was on board with that), he got hurt, Jeremy Hill happened and that was, as the kids say, that. Bernard came back in Week 12 and despite Hill crushing the NFL like a grape, Gio still got work, averaging 13 touches a game from Week 12 on. Unfortunately, he didn't do much with them, ranking as just RB27 on a points-per-game basis among running backs. I like his talent, but I can't see him scoring a ton of touchdowns and do feel his touches will go down to about 10 a game this season as Hill becomes even more comfortable in all facets of the game. Bernard has the feel of a Shane Vereen-type (as far as fantasy goes), which has lots of NFL value, but fantasy-wise in standard scoring, that's not a top-25 running back. And that's where he's being drafted.
Mike Wallace, WR, Vikings (ADP: eighth round; me: eighth round):He's going where I have him ranked, so this is a bit of cheat, but why spend an eighth-round pick on Wallace when you can spend a 12th-rounder on Charles Johnson? This offense ultimately will run through Adrian Peterson and if history has taught us anything, when Mike Wallace doesn't get the ball, things don't go well. Now on his third team in four years, there's upside here in an offense I am high on, but there's also downside. Wallace hasn't had 1,000 yards since 2011, so you're really banking on the scores here. Maybe he scores 10 like he did last season, but maybe he scores five, like he did in his first year in Miami. It takes time to adjust to a new offense, quarterback and team, so as a result, there's a very wide range of outcomes here for Wallace. Not a huge reception guy, he'll be too inconsistent during the course of the season for me, so I'd rather take my chances with guys like Jeremy Maclin, Allen Robinson, Vincent Jackson and others going in the same area.
Julius Thomas, TE, Jaguars (ADP: eighth round; me: 10th round):He's an obvious pick to fall once he left Peyton Manning for Blake Bortles, but it's not just the change in address. He's injury-prone, having never played 16 games in a season, and it's the kind of player he is. He's not a huge yardage guy (only one game over 70 yards last season), so his fantasy talent comes from scoring. And that's gonna go down. Last season, only six teams targeted their tight end less than the Jags. It'll increase now that Thomas is in town, but by how much? Enough to justify a three-round-earlier ADP than guys like Zach Ertz, Dwayne Allen, Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph and Owen Daniels? You really think he's better than those guys? I don't. And in case you were wondering, I'm the one who is right here.
Stephen Gostkowski, K, Patriots (ADP: ninth round; me: 16th round): Yep, in an average draft on ESPN, someone takes a kicker in Round 9. Here's a short list of people I hate more than those who take a kicker in the ninth: people who steal parking spaces in parking lots; people who grab the back of your airline seat to pull themselves up while you are trying to sleep; automated phone "trees" when you try to call customer service for any large corporation (just answer the phone like a human being); the customer service rep for said company who makes me repeat all the account info, address, etc., even though I just spent the previous 10 minutes inputting all of it into the phone; people who drive slow in the left lane; the guy who says "hot enough for ya?"; and, of course, Jeff Fisher. But other than that? No one else besides the guy who takes a kicker before the last round. When that happens, I demand you stand up and say: "Matthew Berry hates you. Yes, you. Even more than Phil, who took Seattle two rounds ago."
Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles (ADP: 11th round; me: 13th round): The price isn't terrible, as I'm of the belief they're all sort of the same. But the Ertz hype train has reached epic levels matched only by ... the epic level of hype from last year. How'd that work out for everybody? Does he have the talent to be elite? Yeah. Are there targets to go around in Philly these days? Sure. And obviously you know I like the offense's chance to score a lot. But my problem is there is nothing we have seen yet to indicate he is going to have a significantly different role in said offense. Last year, 14 tight ends were targeted at least 75 times. Noneof them finished with fewer touchdowns than Ertz. I don't think that's a fluke. Ertz got 11 targets in the red zone last year. Only 11.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions (ADP: 10th round; me: 14th round): He got off to a hot start, but from Week 2 on, Stafford averaged just 13.9 fantasy points per game. That was 25th among qualified quarterbacks, worse than, among others, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton and Mike Glennon. Not surprisingly, Week 2 is also when Calvin Johnson stopped being Calvin Johnson. From Weeks 10-17 (when Johnson was 100 percent), Stafford was 18th among QBs, averaging 13.8 fantasy points a game. By comparison, Alex Smith averaged 13.7 points during that same time frame. Stafford threw 125 fewer passes in 2014 than he did just two seasons earlier, his touchdowns fell to 22 last season (Derek Carr threw 21) and if that's not enough, he's fairly Calvin Johnson-dependent (and you know I am worried about Megatron's health). In a six-year NFL career, Matthew Stafford has finished as a top-five QB ... once. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi seems content with a more conservative approach, just as I am content to let someone else draft the name, because the production hasn't been there in a while.

Breshad Perriman, WR, Ravens (ADP: 11th round; me: 13th round):"He's the next Torrey Smith!" I keep hearing people say. And I'm all like ... uh, how good do you think Torrey Smith is? A much better real NFL player than fantasy, Smith was WR18 last season. And that was an unsustainable 11 touchdowns (on a career-low-tying 49 catches), too. There's value at WR18, but Smith did that as an experienced veteran with a good relationship with Joe Flacco. Now Perriman is hurt, has had issues with drops and is on a team that still wants to be run-first. Oh, there will be some big days with a guy like Perriman -- there always are with big-play speedsters -- but there will also be a lot of 2-for-25 days. Don't put the explosion of last year's rookie class on this one.

Torrey Smith, WR, 49ers (ADP: 11th round; me: 11th round):Speaking of Smith ... He is going around where I have him, so technically he doesn't count as a hate, but I put him on here because he's usually a guy I like a lot. But I did video "Love/Hates" for SportsCenter this summer, one for each NFL team, and Smith was my "hate" choice for San Francisco. Here's what I said: His game is the deep ball, as 57 percent of Torrey Smith's touchdowns in his career have come on deep balls. Last season, Colin Kaepernick's deep-ball completion rate: 33 percent, tied with Geno Smith among the worst in the NFL. Smith was a nice addition to the 49ers for NFL purposes, but fantasy-wise, he's a WR4 or 5 who will provide inconsistent value.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans (ADP: QB16; me: QB24): "And it's another touchdown to Kendall Wright!" Seriously, how often you think you're gonna hear that this year? To have fantasy value this season, Mariota's gonna need to run (and we haven't seen that yet in very limited action). He has no real offensive weapons around him (except for sweet Delanie Walker, baby!) and he's going ahead of players like Teddy Bridgewater, Carson Palmer and Sam Bradford, all of whom have actually played in the NFL, have better weapons (and better systems) and have higher ceilings. I prefer Jameis Winston if you're going to pick a rookie QB this year.
Others receiving votes
It's hard to "hate" any pick in Round 12 or later. Anything can happen and they're all basically depth, lottery tickets or both. That said, there are certain players I like less than others as lottery tickets, so here's the list of guys that, despite their cheap price tag, won't be on my teams this year, as I feel there are higher-upside players going around where they are:
Josh Hill, TE, Saints: He's splitting the job with Ben Watson. Give me Austin Seferian-Jenkins or Jordan Reed if you're looking in this territory.
Derek Carr, QB, Raiders: Bridgewater, Bradford, Palmer. Those are the late QBs you want. The rest of them? Well, there's a reason they are going late.
Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals: Maybe he pulls it together, maybe he doesn't. Palmer will spread it around and I don't see consistency coming out of Floyd. Like I said, gimme John Brown on the Cardinals or gimme no one at all.
Reggie Bush, RB, 49ers: Per Pro Football Focus, Carlos Hyde played 61 percent of his snaps last year on third down. Hyde isn't just a two-down back. Maybe Bush gets on the field, maybe he doesn't, but I'd much rather own a handcuff like Knile Davis or Jerick McKinnon (even if I don't own Jamaal Charles or Adrian Peterson) that could be an elite option if something were to happen over a player like Bush, who has played all 16 games just once since 2007.
Terrance West, RB, Browns: You know I put Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson on my "love" list, so it stands to reason that the guy who isn't one them, the third running back who, if rumors are to believed, doesn't have a lot of fans on the coaching staff, is on the "hate" list.
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</article>Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: You might look at Fleener finishing as a top-six tight end last season and expect more of the same. That would be a mistake. He's just not a very good football player and when playing with a healthy Dwayne Allen in the first nine games last season, Fleener averaged less than six points a game. Allen is healthy again.
Kenny Stills, WR, Dolphins: Deep-ball threat on a team where the quarterback struggles with the deep ball. There's a lot of competition in Miami. I much prefer Jarvis Landry or DeVante Parker.

And with that kids, Love/Hate for 2015 is in the books, which is a weird saying, because there isn't really a book, let alone multiple books. This is the Internet.

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2015

[h=1]Mel Kiper's 2015 NFL fantasy rookie rankings, sleepers[/h]Mel Kiper Jr., Football analyst
ESPN INSIDER

Any seasoned fantasy football player knows that big-name rookies tend to be overrated by lesser fantasy players, and are far more often useful as depth than as pillars of a great lineup ... except don't tell that to the countless numbers of seasoned players who saw Odell Beckham Jr. pile up 139 points over the last six weeks of 2014 and win a league title for many. And don't mention how Jeremy Hill was easily one of the best fantasy running backs in the NFL last season, particularly over the second half.
"Second half" is really the key here, because the reality of drafting rookies is that you're typically drafting depth and delayed satisfaction. A top receiver could get stuck with a lousy QB. A great running back still might not be great in blitz pickup and lose valuable fantasy reps. Tight end is a position where production is so often about chemistry and trust, which doesn't happen in Week 1. And rookie QBs? We all know that score.
That said, as last year proved to us yet again, you better know who these rookies are, because the talent often means more than where they are on the depth chart in Week 1.
Here are my top 12 fantasy rookies, ranked based on point predictions:
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1. Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers
When you watched Gordon running away from defenses last season at Wisconsin, you might have thought he's an edge runner not ready for an NFL workload. The thing is, Gordon carried the ball 343 times in 2014, more than any NFL running back not named DeMarco Murray. I like the San Diego depth chart, but make no mistake that Gordon is the alpha back here, and 220-250 carries are possible. He could be a top-10 back.
2. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders
Last year, two rookie WRs were in the top 15 in targets, and I think Cooper is most likely to be in that group from this rookie class. Four things to consider: One, he's the best option for Derek Carr already; two, he came into the league as an NFL-level route runner, which means he'll create space; three, he's great after the catch, and they'll simply swing the ball over to him a few times a game; four, the Raiders could play from behind a bit. It sets up nicely for a good rookie season.
3. Nelson Agholor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Jeremy Maclin was eighth in the NFL last season with 143 targets. Maclin now plays for the Chiefs. It's not a slight to Maclin to say that Agholor is advanced enough to give the Eagles' offense almost every bit of what Maclin took to K.C. Agholor is a good route runner and a hands-catcher, and he is a burner after the catch.
4. Todd Gurley, RB, St. Louis Rams
If you think this ranking is some referendum on the question of "who's better: Gurley or Gordon" ... calm down. Gurley is an incredible talent, a powerful, explosive runner with above-average hands. He is also less than 10 months removed from a torn ACL and is a major draft investment for this organization (they won't rush him). He has an extremely green O-line in front of him (with two rookies on the right side) and QB is still a question mark. A better bet is that Gurley is more like the Jeremy Hill of 2015, a worthy stash for points in the second-half of the season.
5. T.J. Yeldon, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
The emergence of Denard Robinson and the arrival of Bernard Pierce make this a much more crowded backfield than it was last year -- yes, Toby Gerhart is still around, too -- but Yeldon is still the top talent and I think he will lead the team in carries if he can stay healthy.
6. Phillip Dorsett, WR, Indianapolis Colts
With T.Y. Hilton and Andre Johnson -- not to mention Donte Moncrief -- there are plenty of targets to be shared in this offense. But Andrew Luck will continue to throw the ball a ton, and anything that Dorsett catches can go for big yards. He's going to be open a lot, and Luck will find him.
7. DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
This is suddenly a crowded group of wide receivers with Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings now on board, along with Jarvis Landry -- and don't forget a healthyJordan Cameron -- but Parker is the home run threat they needed. He's also quietly a dangerous run-after-catch threat when he catches the ball underneath. As a taller receiver, he could be a regular red zone target.
8. Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions
One preseason game was enough to get the hype train overcrowded, but slow your roll here, because not only do the Lions have other good options in the backfield, but Abdullah comes in with fumbling questions and won't just assume a pile of runs inside the 5-yard line, especially since Matthew Stafford has an arsenal of passing options.
9. Tevin Coleman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
He could be higher on this list depending on the health of preseason No. 1 RBDevonta Freeman, because offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is simply going to run the ball. If Coleman assumes the bulk of the carries at any point, he's a clear RB2 option.
10. Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina Panthers
The season-ending injury to Kelvin Benjamin takes Funchess from clear "keeper" status to a possible flex play at some point given the fact that Benjamin soaked up a team-high 146 targets last season, and the depth chart now looks weak. Funchess is raw but could get a lot of targets, and he's a red zone toss-up target given his massive frame.
11. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks
This simply isn't an offense where you get excited about any pass-catching option outside of deep leagues, but Lockett has major upside because he's easily the toughest cover on the roster and is a major after-the-catch weapon. The Seahawks should find a way to get him touches. (He's also worth remembering when you choose D/ST because of the return talent.)
12. Maxx Williams, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Based on positional value, maybe I should have Williams higher. The Ravens have big hopes for him, and he's easily the best pass-catching weapon among tight ends on the roster. If he catches 40-plus passes -- a departed Owen Danielscaught 48 balls last season -- it wouldn't surprise me at all.

[h=2]12 Sleepers/Keepers (for next couple years)[/h]Not in any particular order, these rookies are worth watching for later in the season and into 2016.
Breshad Perriman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Probably the most impressive size/speed combo in the draft, Perriman is raw but is arguably the best deep threat for Joe Flacco, and is a red zone threat given the size.
Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
He's clearly a QB2 option, but he gets to throw to Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, and Winston can scramble for scores near the goal line. Still, more of a pure keeper play.
Javorius Allen, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Justin Forsett had 235 carries last season, but Allen is a handcuff play. Forsett's previous season high was 118 carries, and if he got injured, Allen could be the No. 1.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Tennessee Titans
Only a keeper option at this point, but it'll be interesting to see how many touchdown runs Mariota has this season. Inside the 10-yard line, he's a constant threat to simply run for it.
Matt Jones, RB, Washington Redskins
Alfred Morris is the No. 1, but if he got dinged up Jones could quickly become the bell cow.
Jaelen Strong, WR, Houston Texans
DeAndre Hopkins and Cecil Shorts are the top two options, but Strong is worth watching as the season goes along because he could end up with plenty of targets.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Diggs is a threat to hit a home run when he gets the ball with any space to run, and for that reason Norv Turner will find a way to get him touches.
David Cobb, RB, Tennessee Titans
It's simply not an inspiring depth chart at running back, and an injury to Bishop Sankey could make Cobb the No. 1 back.
Jeremy Langford, RB, Chicago Bears
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</article>Matt Forte has missed only one game in the last three seasons. If he misses any time, Langford could battle for the bulk of carries.
Ty Montgomery, WR, Green Bay Packers
Green Bay values versatility, and Montgomery is a weapon if you can get him touches. If Randall Cobb or Jordy Nelson were to miss any time, it's next man up for good numbers via Aaron Rodgers.
Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears
There's a less-than-zero chance we don't see White in Chicago at all this season. He was drafted No. 7 overall to be a major player in this offense, when healthy.
Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Tennessee Titans
DGB is a developmental project, but he is a high-end talent who can dominate a physical matchup. He's one to keep an eye on.

HacheMan · Aug 23, 2015

[h=1]Cockcroft's 10 deep sleepers for 2015[/h]
Tristan H. Cockcroft, Fantasy
Things change swiftly, and suddenly, in fantasy football.
Think that success in this game is entirely about the draft? You'd be wrong.
Productive -- absolute-lock-'em-in -- starters pop up during the season all the time. Last season alone, Odell Beckham Jr. (No. 5 WR), Justin Forsett (No. 8 RB), Travis Kelce (No. 8 TE), Matt Asiata (No. 16 RB), Tre Mason (No. 22 RB),Brandon LaFell (No. 23 WR) and Jordan Matthews (No. 24 WR) finished with fantasy point totals in the "start-worthy" tiers, despite all of them being either entirely undrafted or barely so in the deepest of ESPN leagues. Meanwhile, two of the top five single-game performances came from entirely undrafted players,Jonas Gray (44, Week 11, tied for first) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (39, Week 13, fifth).
Getting these players a step before the competition is critical ... and this doesn't always happen during the draft. It can, but value often sneaks through the draft cracks, which is why it's a good idea to not only compose a list of your favorite draft-day sleepers, but also some you might track in-season.
Remember: Draft preparation is not the final step to your championship! Save your notes; they might help you with in-season roster management.
What follows below is my list of 10 deep sleepers.
To be clear up front: Not a single one of these players might be drafted in an ESPN standard league, and by all rights perhaps none should. But if you: (A) are in an extremely deep league, preferably 12-team or more; (B) drafted a strong starting corps, want an upside play with your 14th-round pick -- remember, always save Rounds 15-16 for your defense and then kicker -- and one of these names resonates with you; or (C) recognize a draft-day roster weak spot and need names to tuck away as early-season pickups, then this list is for you.
Blake Bortles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars: He's an NFL starting quarterback, but after posting by far the league's worst qualified Total QBR (25.2), he's poorly regarded in fantasy, a complete non-factor in one-quarterback leagues and well beneath the cut-off for starter consideration even in two-quarterback formats. I think it's an unfair characterization, especially amid reports that Bortles dealt with shoulder/"dead arm" issues late in the season, besides the significant adjustment to the NFL level. Bortles has slimmed down, spent the offseason working on his mechanics with Tom House and now hasJulius Thomas as a red zone target, and someone from this quarterback tier, every year, unexpectedly breaks through.
Bryce Brown, RB, Buffalo Bills: When we say "so-and-so team's starter might not be on the roster," what we're referring to is the late-preseason, roster-crunch game in which cuts or low-draft-pick trades shuffle on-the-bubble players. Brown fits, facing an uphill battle to make the Bills behind LeSean McCoy, Fred Jackson, Boobie Dixon and Karlos Williams, his fumbling issues the primary obstacle to his getting another chance at a prominent role. Now here's where it gets interesting: The Bills' backfield has been battered by injuries, Brown (hamstring) included, so depending upon how things settle, Rex Ryan might have to take a look at Brown to begin the season. More likely, Brown will find himself available at the beginning of September, with teams in need of running back help like the Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys or Houston Texans perhaps interested. My opinion: Brown's future -- even 2015 -- isn't in Buffalo.

Corey Brown, WR, Carolina Panthers: Formerly known as "Philly Brown," Corey could be one of the benefactors in the Panthers' passing game following the season-ending injury to Kelvin Benjamin. Brown represents a stark contrast in skills to Benjamin, six inches and 60 pounds smaller in size, but that could be a good thing. It seemed like the Panthers might try to win the size advantage in receiving matchups, between Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Devin Funchess. Now I wonder whether they might lean more on Brown to provide contrast and take more shots downfield to draw coverage off the two bigger men. Brown could use some polish on his route running and separation, but his role instantly expanded with the Benjamin news, meaning he'll surely get the opportunity to improve.
Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Chicago Bears: It's somewhat strange that he hasn't garnered more attention during the preseason's early weeks, being that there's a growing sentiment that Matt Forte -- that's first-rounder Matt Forte to you -- is due for a disappointing season under new coach John Fox. The Forte criticisms are somewhat fair, being that Fox's sans-Peyton Manning offenses have been more run-oriented, plus Forte is now 29 years old with a good amount of wear on his tires. Carey's combine and preseason performances last season lowered his fantasy stock, yes, but he's still a good between-the-tackles runner capable of absorbing a hefty workload if necessary. To be clear: I hate handcuffing players.But in deeper leagues in which the final-round running backs are scarce, Carey simply makes sense for Forte owners.
Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints: He's one of the trendiest sleepers of the past week, which unfortunately put him on the fringe of removal -- oh-too-obvious, Tristan! -- entering the second preseason week, during which coach Sean Payton promised first-team reps for the sophomore. Fortunately, Coleman, a 6-foot-6 undrafted free agent who tied the Rutgers record for career receiving touchdowns (20), went 0-for-2 on his late-game targets during the opener, so for the short term, at least, the description remains apt. His size presents a potential matchups advantage for opposing corners and safeties and the Saints, a pass-friendly team that absorbed many changes to their receiving corps, have plenty of opportunity to go around.
Virgil Green, TE, Denver Broncos: Gary Kubiak might not have historically produced individually elite fantasy tight ends, but the statistics support his leaning more heavily on the position in the passing game than most coaches, not to mention Peyton Manning's historic reliance upon his tight ends. This is why many are gravitating toward Owen Daniels as a trendy sleeper; I'm instead looking to Green, who granted is the clear second-string right now. Daniels' age (33) and injury history -- he hasn't played a 16-game season since 2008 and has missed 27 of his team's 96 games, or 28 percent, since -- cannot be overlooked. Green, meanwhile, brings quite a combination of athleticism and blocking ability to the table. At the bare minimum, I'd expect he challenges Daniels for the greater snaps total, and if Daniels misses time, Green could slide in and never look back.
Ryan Mallett, QB, Houston Texans: Big arm, poor accuracy. Those four words sum up Mallett's skill set, though there are worse things to be for a player on the Texans, who have one of the league's most wide-open quarterback pictures. He's the hand-picked Bill O'Brien talent, and he has one of the better deep targets in the game in DeAndre Hopkins, who ranked 10th in catches (38) and 14th in targets (82) on throws 15 yards or deeper the past two seasons combined, despite playing for a run-heavy, poor-quarterbacked offense besideAndre Johnson. In the event Mallett sneaks in a start -- or 10 -- he's at least worth a speculative stash.

Richard Rodgers, TE, Green Bay Packers: He was a sleeper pick of mine a year ago, and after watching too many of those break through thefollowing year, I've learned my lesson: Stick with 'em. Rodgers simply wasn't up to task with the blocking chores required of a tight end, but he's also a substantially better receiver than Andrew Quarless, perhaps capable of serving as either a possession type or infrequent red zone target. When throwing darts at tight end, those on teams that go three- and four-wide and are as productive as the Packers are good targets.
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</article>Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: A la Rodgers, Wheaton was another name on my 2014 sleeper list and, frankly, I'm surprised he's not on more people's lists entering this season. There's an obvious explanation -- Martavis Bryant's skyrocketing fantasy stock -- but as so much attention has been paid to Todd Haley's pass-happy Steelers offense, why isn't Wheaton at least on the 10-team radar? Perhaps Wheaton's ceiling is that of a high-volume, slot-receiver type, but let's not forget that the Steelers ran three-wide sets 66 percent of the time in 2014, seventh-most in the league. Oh, and Ben Roethlisberger has done nothing but rave about Wheaton this preseason, which only helps.

Zach Zenner, RB, Detroit Lions: While everyone coos over Ameer Abdullah's fantasy potential while Joique Bell slowly recovers from both offseason knee and Achilles surgeries, Zenner has snuck by without so much as a glance. A 5-foot-11, 223-pound, undrafted rookie, Zenner rushed for more than 2,000 yards while playing every game for South Dakota State in each of the past three seasons. He's a smart, workhorse-potential back who might fit the Lions' offense as a one-cut runner, and again, right now there's opportunity. He's opening eyes in camp, and as his prospects of making the team increase while Bell's prospects of playing in Week 1 decrease, Zenner's fantasy stock could soon increase to the point he's worth the late-round pick.

HacheMan · Aug 24, 2015

[h=1]Overvalued and undervalued fantasy running backs[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

The first two parts of the overvalued and undervalued players in fantasy football series reviewed the quarterback and tight end positions.
Today's third part of the series will take a look at overvalued and undervalued running backs. There is more depth at this position this season than in recent campaigns, but that relative abundance of quality prospects has not prevented players from being selected higher or lower than they should be.
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[h=2]Overvalued[/h]

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 3.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 1
Joyner positional rank: No. 7
Peterson's top overall running back ranking indicates that most fantasy owners think it is likely he will return to a production level that is close to his 2012 season for the ages. It's possible that this will happen, but it's just as likely Peterson will perform more like he did in the 2010, 2011, and 2013 campaigns (the last three full seasons he posted before his 2014 season-ending suspension).
In that time frame, Peterson ranked third in running back fantasy points (607) and sixth in running back fantasy points in point per reception (PPR) leagues (690).

Part of why he did not score more points is that Peterson missed seven games during those seasons (a factor that brings to mind injury concerns), but it should be noted that he also ranked fourth among running backs in fantasy points per game (14.8) and fifth in running back PPR fantasy points per game (16.8).
In addition to the aforementioned durability concern, Peterson also has a career carry and reception volume that has added nearly two seasons worth of extra wear and tear to his 30-year old frame, and a backup (Jerick McKinnon) who can produce upper-tier numbers on rush plays with good blocking.
Put it all together, and it means that the chances Peterson returns to his 2012 form -- the only level that would justify his current first overall ADP ranking -- are fairly low.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 5.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 5
Joyner positional rank: No. 11
During the past five seasons, there have been 33 occasions when a running back has scored 200 or more fantasy points. On two-thirds of those instances, the back had at least 275 rush attempts. This is a concern for fantasy owners considering drafting Charles, as he has racked up that volume of carries only one time in his career.
In that same time frame, the average fantasy point total for a running back who placed fifth in fantasy points (Charles' current ADP value) is 214. Charles has topped that mark twice in his seven pro seasons but only once in the past four years, so this is also not par-level performance for him.
That he did not reach the 214-point level last season despite scoring 14 touchdowns is amazing, but it is also a concern because of how rare it is to hit pay dirt that often in a season. Running backs have scored 14 or more touchdowns only 54 times since the 2001 season. Charles is one of 10 backs to have achieved this goal twice in that time window, but only four of those backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander) did it more than twice.
There is also the worry that Charles' durability concerns will motivate Andy Reid to continue to give a significant portion of the Chiefs' carries to backup running back Knile Davis.
These factors all indicate that Charles is not likely to finish the year in the top five in running back scoring, and thus is more of a risk than most fantasy owners will want to take with a selection in the middle of Round 1.

[h=2]Undervalued[/h]

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 11.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 8
Joyner positional rank: No. 3
A case can be made that Anderson could end the season first in running back scoring. No back tallied more points in Weeks 10-17 last year (158). Anderson's 9.9-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric ranked tied for second in the league last season. The only running back to do better in this statistic was Justin Forsett, who posted an 11.4 GBYPA.
This is important, because Forsett achieved this while playing in Gary Kubiak's offense, which is the system Anderson will be operating in now that Kubiak has taken over as the Broncos head coach. Anderson will also benefit from Denver turning into more of a run-first offense. The main concern in drafting Anderson is whether he can hold up to a full season's worth of bell-cow carries, but that issue is easily worked around by drafting his backup (either Montee Ball orRonnie Hillman) as a low-cost handcuff.

Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 35.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 14
Joyner positional rank: No. 10
As noted above, Forsett led the league in GBYPA last year. Baltimore offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has a history of getting upper-tier production out of his backs, as Matt Forte ranked second among running backs in fantasy points during the past two seasons while working in a Trestman offense.
The Ravens will continue to utilize the Kubiak rushing system that Forsett excelled in last year, so a similar performance in the GBYPA metric is very possible. There should be few concerns about Forsett being long in the tooth, as he is nearly the same age as Forte, but has only 741 career rushes and receptions.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 80.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 29
Joyner positional rank: No. 19
Detroit had three seasons to judge whether Joique Bell could be their go-to back. They obviously found him less than completely adept in that regard, as they selected a potential replacement for Bell in Abdullah.
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</article>Abdullah has many of the hallmarks of a breakaway back. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he ranked tied for eighth nationally in rushes of 20 or more yards last year (18). New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles recently said that Abdullah "is about as quick as Barry Sanders." Scouts Inc. gave Abdullah a "1" grade (their highest rating) in four different areas, and said he "runs angry."
His size (5-foot-9, 205 pounds) may give some pause as to whether he can handle a large workload, but he posted 250 or more combined rushes and receptions in his last three seasons at Nebraska.
Detroit will try to find out whether Abdullah can produce better numbers than Bell, possibly sooner rather than later, given Bell's recent injury woes. If Abdullah succeeds in showcasing his skills, the Lions' backfield could turn into a lead/alternate situation with Abdullah being the lead back and Bell being the alternate. That would put Abdullah into RB2 territory and even potentially into lower-tier RB1 territory.

HacheMan · Aug 24, 2015

Potential 2015 breakouts: Quarterback

Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Ask 100 fantasy football owners how they view the term “breakout” and maybe we wouldn’t get 100 different responses, but it’s a bit like the term “sleeper” in that there’s no true definition. If we truly delve into what value means -- and how one might act on the term is perhaps more critical -- we’d likely see that how a football player breaks out depends originally on his baseline expectations. I do think Indianapolis Colts stud Andrew Luck has bigger seasons in front of him, but he’s not a breakout by a normal definition. He’s already awesome. Similarly, the breakout for Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore Blake Bortles, the third overall pick and first passer in the 2014 draft, would be viewed differently.
Let’s make this easy: I’m probably not choosing a quarterback I think will break out for a standard league in the first place. I’m more than satisfied choosing well-established 30-somethings like Dallas Cowboys veteran Tony Romo or New York Giants winner Eli Manning in the 10th round and letting others select the rookies or the Bortles types. But like many of you, I participate in leagues other than those with 10 teams and standard scoring. I’m in dynasty/keeper formats. I’m in a 20-team league in which every starting quarterback and several reserves are chosen. I’ve been in leagues with quarterbacks eligible for the open/utility position (OP in ESPN leagues) and ones with six points for touchdown passes and another with team quarterbacks.

We’ll handle the big three positions for this “breakout” exercise within the next week, and truth be told, my interest level is far more piqued by the running backs and wide receivers who could emerge as fantasy monsters. But we start as always with quarterback, and the assignment is to differentiate from quarterbacks viewed as potentially worth drafting -- the top 20 options -- and those further off the radar. So let’s have some fun with this and truly dream about unexpected statistics coming our way.

QB breakouts: Top 20 version

Sam Bradford, Philadelphia Eagles: This is the obvious one. Bradford has always possessed the skills to be a star, but he’s had a recurring problem remaining upright. The Eagles rescued him from St. Louis, where he had neither the blocking nor the weaponry for success. Now the former first overall selection joins a loaded, smart offense. You know he could be a top-five quarterback. He has the arm and the requisite mobility. This could absolutely work out great. I mean, look what Nick Foles did two seasons ago. Frankly, I’m not even looking at Bradford’s Rams numbers anymore. He couldn’t succeed.

Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: Bridgewater wasn’t asked to do a whole lot as a rookie, but he has the arm strength and accuracy to throw short or long and defenses will certainly need to prepare for the future Hall of Famer he will be handing the football off to as well. I can’t really see Bridgewater approaching 30 touchdown passes, not like Bradford could, but there is upside for 4,000 passing yards.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: He made this list a season ago, for good reason. He’s got the ability. And before you mock the choice, Cutler would have finished as fantasy’s No. 7 quarterback had he scored 24 points in the one contest he missed. In other words, this was very nearly a top-10 guy, despite the 18 interceptions. Hey, trash-time touchdowns count, too, and they're coming again. Cutler hasn’t reached 4,000 passing yards since 2008 in Denver, and he’s never thrown 30 touchdown passes. The loss of rookie Kevin White hardly precludes him from doing so at age 32, especially when one realizes how awful Chicago’s defense appears. Shootout city, ba-by!
QB breakouts: Back-end range

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</article>Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders:Yeah, rookie Amari Cooper could be that awesome. Carr didn’t impress as a rookie, and he seemed to get quite a few breaks in the interception department, but one difference-making wide receiver could change his fortunes. Remember, if everyone believes a quarterback will break out, then he doesn’t go undrafted like Carr will. And by the way, I’m leaving noted rookies Jameis Winston of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Marcus Mariota of the Tennessee Titans off the list. Too obvious, and they’re already going in the 21-23 range at the position, neither top-20 nor truly back-end range. I don’t want to assume Carr can’t improve. I want to see what he can do with downfield playmakers in a more up-tempo offense. And yeah, I think he has a better chance to break out this season than Blake Bortles, but to be fair, they’re in similar situations.

Ryan Mallett, Houston Texans: Don’t you trust Bill Belichick by now? TheNew England Patriots made Mallett a third-round pick in 2011, but Tom Bradyremains top-notch, thus there’s little need to groom someone. Now a Texan, Mallett has the size and perhaps the skills to be very good, and even with Andre Johnson gone, he’s got intriguing weapons. Mallett might not even win the starting job over Brian Hoyer, but there’s definite upside if he can figure things out.

Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns: Don’t even look at his rookie numbers. We hope his life is back on track and if it is, let’s remember how talented a player he can be. There’s a reason he’s had on-field success. He’s certainly confident. I doubt he has the weapons around him to truly break out, but I don’t think Josh McCown, absolutely awful last season, is the answer. Presuming Manziel can’t play at the NFL level is short-sighted. We don’t know. I don’t want to outright dismiss it, and in a dynasty format, I’ll take the chance late. Manziel could be just as successful, if not more, than Winston and Mariota, but since they're perceived to have not failed yet, they're thought of differently. Let's be open-minded.

swirv · Aug 24, 2015

Hache Man said:
Overvalued and undervalued fantasy running backs

KC Joyner, NFL Insider

The first two parts of the overvalued and undervalued players in fantasy football series reviewed the quarterback and tight end positions.
Today's third part of the series will take a look at overvalued and undervalued running backs. There is more depth at this position this season than in recent campaigns, but that relative abundance of quality prospects has not prevented players from being selected higher or lower than they should be.
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Overvalued

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 3.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 1
Joyner positional rank: No. 7
Peterson's top overall running back ranking indicates that most fantasy owners think it is likely he will return to a production level that is close to his 2012 season for the ages. It's possible that this will happen, but it's just as likely Peterson will perform more like he did in the 2010, 2011, and 2013 campaigns (the last three full seasons he posted before his 2014 season-ending suspension).
In that time frame, Peterson ranked third in running back fantasy points (607) and sixth in running back fantasy points in point per reception (PPR) leagues (690).

Part of why he did not score more points is that Peterson missed seven games during those seasons (a factor that brings to mind injury concerns), but it should be noted that he also ranked fourth among running backs in fantasy points per game (14.8) and fifth in running back PPR fantasy points per game (16.8).
In addition to the aforementioned durability concern, Peterson also has a career carry and reception volume that has added nearly two seasons worth of extra wear and tear to his 30-year old frame, and a backup (Jerick McKinnon) who can produce upper-tier numbers on rush plays with good blocking.
Put it all together, and it means that the chances Peterson returns to his 2012 form -- the only level that would justify his current first overall ADP ranking -- are fairly low.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 5.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 5
Joyner positional rank: No. 11
During the past five seasons, there have been 33 occasions when a running back has scored 200 or more fantasy points. On two-thirds of those instances, the back had at least 275 rush attempts. This is a concern for fantasy owners considering drafting Charles, as he has racked up that volume of carries only one time in his career.
In that same time frame, the average fantasy point total for a running back who placed fifth in fantasy points (Charles' current ADP value) is 214. Charles has topped that mark twice in his seven pro seasons but only once in the past four years, so this is also not par-level performance for him.
That he did not reach the 214-point level last season despite scoring 14 touchdowns is amazing, but it is also a concern because of how rare it is to hit pay dirt that often in a season. Running backs have scored 14 or more touchdowns only 54 times since the 2001 season. Charles is one of 10 backs to have achieved this goal twice in that time window, but only four of those backs (LaDainian Tomlinson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Priest Holmes and Shaun Alexander) did it more than twice.
There is also the worry that Charles' durability concerns will motivate Andy Reid to continue to give a significant portion of the Chiefs' carries to backup running back Knile Davis.
These factors all indicate that Charles is not likely to finish the year in the top five in running back scoring, and thus is more of a risk than most fantasy owners will want to take with a selection in the middle of Round 1.

Undervalued

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 11.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 8
Joyner positional rank: No. 3
A case can be made that Anderson could end the season first in running back scoring. No back tallied more points in Weeks 10-17 last year (158). Anderson's 9.9-yard mark in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric ranked tied for second in the league last season. The only running back to do better in this statistic was Justin Forsett, who posted an 11.4 GBYPA.
This is important, because Forsett achieved this while playing in Gary Kubiak's offense, which is the system Anderson will be operating in now that Kubiak has taken over as the Broncos head coach. Anderson will also benefit from Denver turning into more of a run-first offense. The main concern in drafting Anderson is whether he can hold up to a full season's worth of bell-cow carries, but that issue is easily worked around by drafting his backup (either Montee Ball orRonnie Hillman) as a low-cost handcuff.

Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 35.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 14
Joyner positional rank: No. 10
As noted above, Forsett led the league in GBYPA last year. Baltimore offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has a history of getting upper-tier production out of his backs, as Matt Forte ranked second among running backs in fantasy points during the past two seasons while working in a Trestman offense.
The Ravens will continue to utilize the Kubiak rushing system that Forsett excelled in last year, so a similar performance in the GBYPA metric is very possible. There should be few concerns about Forsett being long in the tooth, as he is nearly the same age as Forte, but has only 741 career rushes and receptions.

Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 80.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 29
Joyner positional rank: No. 19
Detroit had three seasons to judge whether Joique Bell could be their go-to back. They obviously found him less than completely adept in that regard, as they selected a potential replacement for Bell in Abdullah.
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</article>Abdullah has many of the hallmarks of a breakaway back. According to ESPN Stats & Information, he ranked tied for eighth nationally in rushes of 20 or more yards last year (18). New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles recently said that Abdullah "is about as quick as Barry Sanders." Scouts Inc. gave Abdullah a "1" grade (their highest rating) in four different areas, and said he "runs angry."
His size (5-foot-9, 205 pounds) may give some pause as to whether he can handle a large workload, but he posted 250 or more combined rushes and receptions in his last three seasons at Nebraska.
Detroit will try to find out whether Abdullah can produce better numbers than Bell, possibly sooner rather than later, given Bell's recent injury woes. If Abdullah succeeds in showcasing his skills, the Lions' backfield could turn into a lead/alternate situation with Abdullah being the lead back and Bell being the alternate. That would put Abdullah into RB2 territory and even potentially into lower-tier RB1 territory.

agree with this 100%

HacheMan · Aug 25, 2015

[h=1]Potential 2015 breakouts: Running back[/h]Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

In pretty much every draft I participate in, be it solely for 2015 purposes or a keeper/dynasty format, there comes a time to choose between the safe, reliable and perhaps boring running back and the guy with mad upside who hasn’t disappointed yet. I think we’ve all been there. Each draft is different, so there are times to make the decision for the immediate helper and others for the unestablished option. Breaking out, just like breaking up, is pretty hard to do.
With my choice for potential breakouts at quarterback posted last week, it’s time for the positions where breakouts matter more. It’s true, let’s be honest. There are so many usable quarterbacks for fantasy purposes, but so many of us will be desperate for running back help by Halloween. So let’s talk about the running backs in our breakout series, and remember the caveats: Many running backs have broken out already. We all could have various definitions of the word. I can tell you we’re all looking for breakouts by the middle of the draft.
Anyway, as with quarterback -- and wide receiver next -- we’ll separate into categories, because comparing a fifth-rounder in fantasy to an afterthought isn’t fair. Some of these players have had chances and failed; others haven’t had chances. Some of these players might not even be in the league in a year, while the next C.J. Anderson or Latavius Murray -- both made my list a year ago -- is lurking. You might not be thinking about these players, which is exactly the point. We’re leaving rookies out, by the way, so don’t ask about Melvin Gordon.
RB breakouts: Top-40 version
Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers: Everyone’s assuming he’ll be very good, but he certainly fits the criteria because he wasn’t given much opportunity as a rookie. Now Hyde will get the chance to break out, and please don’t tell me all about Reggie Bush. I think it’s a given Hyde will be at least a RB2.
Latavius Murray, Raiders: Same deal, really. Murray should have been presented opportunity earlier than November last season, but it’s the Raiders. They didn’t know what they had. Now they do. Murray has the size and speed to star and should be an RB2 as well, with the potential for much more.
Joseph Randle, Dallas Cowboys: It’s a great opportunity in an elite offense with arguably the best offensive line. I could see Randle outperforming DeMarco Murray, his teammate from last season. I also could see Randle failing miserably. What’s it worth to you to find out? A top-20 RB pick?
Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: At times he was really impressive, and then he looked about as average as the others in the backfield vying for chances. Crowell should get first shot over Terrance West and rookie Duke Johnson, but ultimately I don’t see any Browns breaking out into weekly must-use relevance.
Tre Mason, St. Louis Rams: Nobody’s saying rookie Todd Gurley doesn’t have the brightest of futures, but he’s coming off major knee surgery, and Mason, impressive at times as a rookie, isn’t likely to simply step out of the way. I think Gurley doesn’t play until October, and even that might be too soon. If Mason has a great September, who knows?
Alfred Blue, Houston Texans: Again, the assumption is that Blue is simply filling in for an injured Arian Foster and eventually the starting role will be forcibly removed from his clutches, but I won’t be passing up Blue if he slips in drafts. The Texans run the ball more than any team and Foster is a huge risk.
Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans: To be thorough, he has to be examined in this space, but when I watch him play I don’t see a future star. I think the rookie David Cobb eventually breezes past Sankey on the depth chart, but stranger things have happened and Sankey was the first running back taken in the 2014 draft. In years when Jeremy Hill, Hyde and others become stars, it will be a nice trivia question.
RB breakouts: Back-end range

Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sims was in the Sankey draft as well, 15 picks later, and while the opportunity isn’t quite as golden, I see a more talented player. Plus, how many more times are we going to quote the Doug Martin rookie season as a reason to draft him years later? I’d draft Sims over Martin, especially in PPR, and please don’t quote me preseason stats as a reason to love Martin again. Sims will catch passes at the least, though it would be nice if his offensive line improved.
Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens: I’m in the camp for buying whatJustin Forsett accomplished last season as repeatable, but Taliaferro has game, too, should opportunity arise. He’s a bruiser and perhaps he figures only into goal-line work, but if Forsett fails, let’s not assume rookie Javorius Allen is next in line. It’s worth noting Taliaferro might not be ready for Week 1, as he nurses a knee injury, but it’s a long season.
Montee Ball, Denver Broncos: Hello again! Ball has gone from top-10 running back pick -- it’s true -- to way, way off the radar, and it didn’t take long. First, Knowshon Moreno was better. Then Ball was hurt and C.J. Anderson (andRonnie Hillman) were better. I don’t think Anderson loses the role, but eventually, in some season, Ball will explode. For this season, he’s a legit handcuff, as is Hillman, in theory.
Jonas Gray, New England Patriots: Nothing against LeGarrette Blount, but he’s not the type of running back teams rely on or build around and this is the Patriots, where every week things could change. Look at Gray! He rushed for 201 yards and four scores one week and barely got used again. Well, he’s getting used in Week 1 with Blount serving a suspension, and if he plays well, it might not be much fun owning Blount after that. Coach Bill Belichick could change his mind every week, but Gray could certainly break out for more than one game. I don’t expect it, but it’s not crazy to envision it.
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</article>Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints: Another repeat from last season on this list, Robinson sure looks like he can play, and Mark Ingram and C.J. Spilleraren’t known for their durability. A year ago at this time Ingram was irrelevant, too. I just won’t be surprised when Robinson eventually plays well.
Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks: I’m getting a little tired of talking about a player who never gets to play. Marshawn Lynch gets at least another year and even then, Michael is behind Robert Turbin on the depth chart. I’m not bothering, but as with Denver’s Ball, I half-expect Michael will someday become a fantasy asset.

Antone Smith, Atlanta Falcons: This pick is way out of left field, I admit. Rookie Tevin Coleman and sophomore Devonta Freeman are first up, and getting selected in fantasy leagues. Smith is not. He’s 29 and saw 36 runs and receptions from scrimmage last season. The numbers, though, were amazing, as he averaged 6.3 yards per rush (and 29 yards per rush on five carries in 2013) and 17.1 yards per reception. Basically the Falcons put him out in space and he ran wild. Many Falcons fans want to see what Smith could do with 150 touches. Me, too.

HacheMan · Aug 25, 2015

[h=1]Odell Beckham Jr. among overvalued fantasy WRs[/h]
KC Joyner, NFL Insider
ESPN INSIDER

The first three parts of the overvalued and undervalued players in fantasy football series reviewed the quarterback, running back and tight end positions.
Today's fourth part of the series will take a look at overvalued and undervalued wide receivers. The attrition caused by season-ending injuries to Kelvin Benjamin and Jordy Nelson has depleted some of the upper-tier talent at this position, but some top-flight prospects are still being drafted higher or lower than where they should be.

[h=2]Overvalued[/h]

Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 17.0
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 4
Joyner positional rank: No. 8
Beckham's top-four wide receiver status is largely based on fantasy owners expecting him to come close to repeating the incredible scoring pace he set last year by racking up 169 points in standard leagues and 250 points in point per reception (PPR) leagues over the last nine weeks of the season.

The first fallacy here is having any expectation that Beckham will post that scoring volume again. If he did keep producing at that pace over a full 16-game stretch, it would equate to 300 points over the course of a season and would make him hands down the No. 1 wide receiver (and arguably the No. 1 overall pick in the draft).
The second is expecting Beckham to keep posting anywhere near the 12.7 targets per game volume he registered over that time frame. That would generate 203 targets over the course of a 16-game season, a pace that ESPN Stats & Information says no wideout has generated since 2001 (the first year in their database). In fact, only three players have racked up 190 or more targets (Brandon Marshall, Marvin Harrison and Calvin Johnson), with Johnson being the only one of that trio to post at least 200 targets (201 targets in 2012).
So if he can't keep up at that pace, the idea must be that Beckham can at least produce upper-tier numbers for a 16-game stretch. That may happen, but Beckham has been very injury prone since joining the NFL. Hamstring injuries kept him out of spring practices in each of the past two seasons and those same ailments caused him to miss the first four games of the 2014 campaign. He was never a workhorse wideout at LSU, posting only 58, 76 and 95 targets respectively during his three seasons in Baton Rouge, so his long-term durability is far from guaranteed.
Add to all of this to a number of other notable negatives and it begins to look like the Madden Curse could impact Beckham in the same way it has hindered so many other players.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 18.0
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 5
Joyner positional rank: No. 12
How much risk is too much risk when it comes to taking someone in the first two rounds of a fantasy football draft? That's the question that must be answered when considering whether to take Megatron with a top-20 selection.
Johnson's talent level is such that he has been able to rank fourth in wide receiver fantasy points per game the past two seasons (13.4) despite battling a multitude of injuries.
This ability to overcome physical ailments may give fantasy owners a false sense of security as to Johnson's durability. ESPN Insider Mike Sando reported a few months ago that an NFL executive (not with the Lions) said that it was possible that Johnson could physically "fall apart at some point."
That point may or may not be this year, but it does bring to mind this question: Should a fantasy owner be willing to risk a second-round pick on a player with this level of uncertainty? Some fantasy team owners may say yes, but the suggestion here is to let someone else take that risk and instead value Johnson as a high-tier WR2.

[h=2]Undervalued[/h]

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 31.9
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 12
Joyner positional rank: No. 3
Looking back on things, it now seems clear that Evans may actually have beenmore valuable than Johnny Manziel during their tenure at Texas A&M.
Evans also had a team MVP-caliber performance in Tampa Bay last year in large part due to his incredibly strong numbers on long-distance passes. No wideout had more vertical touchdown receptions (11 scores on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and only Nelson and Dez Bryant racked up more stretch vertical touchdowns than Evans (seven scoring trips on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield).
If Evans were able to rack up these achievements with lesser passing talents, the sky has to be considered the limit now that he is working with Jameis Winston, assuming Evans can stay healthy (he's battling a hamstring injury currently). Evans was on the border of a WR1 scoring level last year (11th in fantasy WR points), so he should now be considered a WR1 candidate with upper-tier WR1 potential if Winston plays to his considerable talent level.

Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 72.6
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 27
Joyner positional rank: No. 9
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</article>Wallace may not have been anywhere near as good on vertical passes in Miami as he was in Pittsburgh, but some of those downfield issues have to fall on the shoulders of Ryan Tannehill. Last season, Tannehill ranked tied for 30th and tied for 34th, respectively, in vertical yards per attempt (YPA) and stretch vertical YPA -- and not all of those passes were being directed toward Wallace.
Now Wallace joins a Minnesota team with Teddy Bridgewater under center. This could be a huge boon for Wallace, as over the last five weeks of the 2014 season, Bridgewater ranked fourth in vertical YPA (13.4) and sixth in stretch vertical YPA (16.0). This continues a trend at Louisville where Bridgewater postedpowerful passing numbers nearly across the board.
Even if Wallace doesn't return to the time when he was proved capable of posting top-of-the-league-caliber receiving totals, he should be able to contend for WR1 status with the accurate Bridgewater throwing passes his way.

HacheMan · Aug 26, 2015

Potential 2015 breakouts: Wide receiver

Eric Karabell, ESPN.com Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Last season was a record-breaking one for the first-year wide receivers, as Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and others made good use of extensive playing time and supplied serious numbers to their NFL teams and fantasy owners. But as I’ve written in blog entries recently about quarterbacks and running backs, we leave rookies out of the discussion for breakout performers, concentrating more on names that have had various degrees of chances but might not have reached expectations commensurate with their skill level. At wide receiver, breakouts come in many shapes and sizes.

We’ll continue to separate our potential breakouts into two distinct classes, focusing on the wide receivers likely to be selected in most all fantasy drafts, and then others a bit further off the proverbial radar, if not completely off it. You’ll find several of the coveted players are entering their second season with greater opportunity, and sometimes that’s the most important factor. After all, all these fellows were college stars, right? They have ability. And while we hit on some of last year’s breakout choices -- Emmanuel Sanders, DeAndre Hopkins andGolden Tate -- it might take me a while to get over Minnesota Vikingsdisappointment Cordarrelle Patterson. It seemed so obvious.

Enjoy this list for what it is, just one man’s thoughts on who should/could produce better numbers than his rankings suggest. Some will be correct. Some will be Cordarrelle Patterson.

WR breakouts: Top-40 version
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints: Pretty obvious that Drew Brees needs a new top target with Jimmy Graham far, far away. Cooks, one of the second-year guys who didn’t get the chance to finish his debut season, could emerge into an immediate star.
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles: Jeremy Maclin followed DeSean Jackson out the door. Now it’s time for Matthews, in concert with rookie Nelson Agholor, to handle the main wide receiver duties. I think each is up to the task, but Matthews gets the bigger statistics.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: He went from third on the franchise’s wide receiver depth chart to second when Jordy Nelson shredded a knee. People were already drafting him before that. He’s going to be good. And yes, Adams was in the next section before the weekend.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Some might be surprised by this pick, but the Penn State product -- also in his second season -- was highly targeted by beleaguered but talented Blake Bortles, and possesses the size and speed to emerge, even if his quarterback isn’t awesome.
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers: Yet another sophomore, Bryant had no trouble finding the end zone, doing so eight times in 10 games, but he didn’t get many targets or receptions. Watch him keep the touchdowns but double the catches and targets. This is a high-volume offense.
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals: Entering his fourth season, Floyd was on this list a year ago but disappointed, though 17.9 yards per catch isn’t at all bad. It was second in the NFL to DeSean Jackson. Some of Floyd’s other numbers can be blamed on the absence of professional quarterback Carson Palmer, who is now healthy. Floyd is not, as his dislocated fingers heal and might cost him a game or two, but don’t assume his career has stalled. We’ll get to one of his colleagues later.
Charles Johnson, Vikings: Yeah, most of us rank wear-out-his-welcome newcomer Mike Wallace better, for he’s a proven (albeit erratic) talent, but Johnson was the one producing down the stretch last season for the Vikings. I like Teddy Bridgewater and Johnson should be his top target.

WR breakouts: Back-end range
John Brown, Cardinals: I guess what I’m saying is I don’t expect big things from Larry Fitzgerald. Brown is the DeSean Jackson type; don’t expect more than 70 receptions, but there will be big plays.
Cody Latimer, Denver Broncos: He would be the AFC version of Davante Adams, in theory, if one of the starters got hurt. As the team’s No. 3 wide receiver, he is only capable of so much.
Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts: He would have been in the first section, top-40 at his position, had Andre Johnson not signed to catch Andrew Luck passes. Still, he’s young and talented and will make big plays.
Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson, Chicago Bears: The Kevin Whiteinjury opened the door, and each of these fellows should play a lot alongsideAlshon Jeffery. Royal will be the PPR fave; as a rookie in 2008 he delivered monster numbers when he was playing with Jay Cutler in Denver. And even the past two seasons, he caught 15 touchdown passes in San Diego. Royal is 29, but so what, he can “break out” with a big season. Wilson disappointed last season and I could be overrating him, but Cutler completes a lot of passes for a lot of yards. These guys should matter.

Marvin Jones, Cincinnati Bengals: Remember this guy? He caught 10 touchdown passes in his second season of 2013, including four in one game against the New York Jets. It’s not easy to pile up the numbers when Andy Daltonconstantly looks for A.J. Green, but Jones, now healthy after foot and ankle woes, should net career bests in catches and yards.
Brian Quick, St. Louis Rams: A year ago Tavon Austin made this list and it was clearly a mistake. Quick looked like the Rams' top option last season until shoulder injuries truncated his season. Nick Foles has to throw to someone. And if Austin does finally emerge, good for him.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Kenny Stills, Miami Dolphins: A speedster averaging 16.5 yards per reception on his 95 career catches, it’s not surprising most will ignore him because he leaves Brees in New Orleans, but Ryan Tannehill was a top-10 fantasy quarterback too. Don’t be shocked when Stills reaches 1,000 receiving yards.
Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans: Like Stills he’s another big-play option entering his third season, and both made this list last season. Hunter fell victim to a lackluster offense, seemingly in better hands with Marcus Mariota. I think Stills has a greater shot for statistical success, but Hunter has a future, too.

Cole Beasley, Dallas Cowboys: Might seem like an odd selection, but we know what Terrance Williams can do, and Beasley should see increased volume on short passes. He won’t be Jarvis Landry, but it’s an elite offense, and 60 receptions could be on the way.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2015

[h=1]Insider Trading: Key fantasy questions for all 16 NFC teams[/h]ESPN INSIDER

Every Friday during the 2014 regular season, NFL Nation's "Insider Trading" gave football fans and fantasy owners insight on all 32 teams that they could put to use in pick 'ems and making key lineup decisions.
We decided to get an early start this season and the writers arrived at training camps armed with questions to consider throughout camp and the preseason in hopes of giving fantasy owners the best information for making tough draft-day decisions.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The responses were so well-thought-out that we've split things up by conference. Answers to those questions for each of the 16 NFC teams appear below. We hope you find our writers' responses useful in understanding how roles are playing out as the 2015 regular season approaches.
To see NFL Nation's answers for all 16 AFC teams, click here.

[h=2]Arizona Cardinals[/h]

Andre Ellington broke down last season, so are the Cards more likely to split carries between him and David Johnson?
Yes. Ellington will still be the focal point of the offense, but Johnson will get his share of carries. They might not be evenly split, but Johnson will have a significant role in the offense.
Is John Brown arguably the best receiving option for fantasy as soon as this season, and what numbers can we expect from Larry Fitzgerald?
Yes. Brown had five touchdowns last season by Week 10 before falling off, but he's gained muscle and continues to be a favorite target of Carson Palmer's. If Palmer stays healthy this season, I think at least 750 yards and seven touchdowns are realistic from Fitzgerald.
Palmer was a startable QB when healthy last season, but is it realistic to expect him to be as effective so soon after his latest ACL injury?
From what he's shown during training camp and the preseason, yes, it's realistic to expect Palmer to be effective starting Week 1. His arm looks stronger than it's been the past few years, and coach Bruce Arians has said Palmer strengthened his core, which bodes well for a healthy knee and shoulder this season.
- Josh Weinfuss

[h=2]Atlanta Falcons[/h]

With Kyle Shanahan as the offensive coordinator, who will emerge from the Falcons' backfield as the one to own in fantasy?

Although everyone seems to believeTevin Coleman will emerge as the guy in the backfield because of the big-play ability he showed in college, I still think Devonta Freeman will get more touches this season. Shanahan said he believes Freeman can thrive both in the run game and as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Freeman gives Matt Ryan another receiver to target in the red zone as well.
How much does Roddy White have left in the tank?
Ask the 33-year-old White and he'll tell you he's got plenty left going into his 11th NFL season. At the same time, White knows his body is not nearly the same as it used to be. He had his left knee drained during minicamp and will have to undergo the same procedure midseason. And White has other bumps and bruises that come with playing so many years. If the Falcons monitor his reps and use him in key situations, White should be able to make a positive contribution. Of White's 62 career touchdowns, 39 have come in the red zone.
- Vaughn McClure

[h=2]Carolina Panthers[/h]

With DeAngelo Williams gone, will Jonathan Stewartfinally be a workhorse running back? Or will Ron Rivera keep a two-back approach?
Rivera says he'll keep the two-back approach, but the carries won't be divided as evenly as they were when Williams and Stewart were "Double Trouble.'' Stewart had 20 or more carries in three of the final four regular-season games after becoming the featured back last season and 24 carries in the first round of the playoffs. Look for him to be in the 18-to-20-carry range with Fozzy Whittakerand Cameron Artis-Payne spelling him with six to eight carries.
After a down season in 2014 when he was limited by injuries, is Cam Newton poised to return to elite fantasy QB status this season?
The pieces are in place for Newton to have his best season. He is healthier than he's been since entering the NFL. He has more weapons around him, although losing Kelvin Benjamin will hurt. The offensive line should be more stable than it was a year ago. Newton has spent much of the offseason working to correct fundamental issues that hurt his passing efficiency. Look for him to return to top form as a runner and passer.
- David Newton

[h=2]Chicago Bears[/h]

With Brandon Marshall gone from the Windy City, who will emerge at wideout behind Alshon Jeffery?
Eddie Royal. Rookie Kevin White is possibly out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair a stress fracture in his left shin. Cross him off the list. Royal is a consummate professional. He understands the offense, is versatile and can line up all over the field. He has good hands and above-average speed. And he is fairly durable. The problem with Marquess Wilson is that he's never produced at a high level. He got hurt last season (broken collarbone in camp), and, honestly, I don't know if his body can handle the rigors of a 16-game NFL regular season. Wilson is tall but thin. The more reps he receives only further exposes him to injury. Royal is the smart choice.
The talent has always been there, but we're still waiting for Jay Cutlerto be an elite fantasy quarterback. Now with offensive coordinator Adam Gase in the fold, should we expect bigger things from Cutler?
No. Been there, done that. Cutler is 32 years old. What's the old saying? "He is what he is." I have no doubt Gase will make certain tweaks to help Cutler -- run the ball more, move him outside the pocket -- but at the end of the day, Cutler is a turnover-prone quarterback who struggles versus good teams. Or, when Cutler is playing good football (see 2011), he gets hurt. He will continue to have games that make fantasy owners cringe. Cutler isn't a bad quarterback to take in your fantasy draft (depending on league size), but buyer beware. We should know by now what fantasy owners are getting in Cutler. He is not in the elite category.
- Jeff Dickerson

[h=2]Dallas Cowboys[/h]

How will the Cowboys backfield shake out this season? Is it Joseph Randle's job to lose?
At the start of training camp, Jerry Jones lauded Randle as the lead back, and there has been nothing evident in camp to make it seem like he won't be the No. 1 guy. Some of that is due to the injuries Darren McFadden(hamstring) and Lance Dunbar (ankle) have had, but most of it is the work Randle has done. He has just 105 carries in his two seasons, and until he shows he can be a workhorse, it is all a guess. But there's no reason not to expect 1,000 yards from Randle with this offensive line. McFadden will have a chance to grow his role, and if he is hot during games, the Cowboys will stick with him. Dunbar will play a valuable third-down role, but he's not an every-down back.
We know Dez Bryant is the elite pass-catcher in Dallas, but will a second wide receiver step up to be a factor on a more consistent basis?
Tight end Jason Witten is effectively the No. 2 receiver, and he has been for quite some time. As far as wide receivers go, Terrance Williams had 37 catches and eight touchdowns last season. If the Cowboys run the ball as much and as effectively as they did last season, Williams' numbers should stay around the same. It's difficult to see the Cowboys rushing for more than 2,300 yards again as a team, so Williams' reception total should be in the 40-50 range, while Cole Beasley will be in the 50-55 range.
- Todd Archer

[h=2]Detroit Lions[/h]

How much do you expect Ameer Abdullah to factor into the Lions' plans? Should Joique Bell be concerned about losing his starting job?
Abdullah is going to play a big role this season. It's not entirely clear what that role will be because Bell has missed so much of training camp, but, at minimum, Abdullah will be the change-of-pace back and a better option in PPR leagues than Bell would be. If you don't play PPR, Bell might still be the stronger play. This could end up turning into a time-share by the end of the season as well, so be wary of that.
Golden Tate had easily the best season of his career in 2014 but still scored just four TDs and tailed off in the second half. Provided Calvin Johnson stays healthy, can Tate come close to his 2014 yardage and find the end zone more often?
The yardage (1,331) could be tough, although the counter to that for Tate is that with Johnson on the field, he should have more favorable matchups than he did a season ago. So it could be a situation of close to equal yards on fewer receptions. The end zone, as we all know, can be a fickle thing, so it's tough to predict that. I'd imagine he scores more than four times this season -- the Lions could use him on an end-around as well, perhaps -- but it would be tough to really make a call there. Johnson remains the main target, but Tate might be the best No. 2 receiver in the NFL.
- Michael Rothstein

[h=2]Green Bay Packers[/h]

Is Davante Adams ready to step into a major role after the injury to Jordy Nelson? What are realistic numbers to expect from Adams?
We know this much: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers trusts Adams. He said this offseason that when he went back and watched film from last season, he noticed how often Adams was open, even when he didn't throw him the ball. That doesn't mean that all of a sudden Rodgers is going to target Adams 149 times like he did Nelson in 2014, but the Packers will need someone to become the deep threat that Nelson gave them. Don't expect Adams to become a 98-catch receiver like Nelson was last season, but he certainly could see his numbers double from last year, when he caught 38 passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns.
Eddie Lacy is a top-three pick in terms of ADP for 2015. Is he a safe bet to match his average numbers from his first two seasons, or can we expect even more from Lacy this season in fantasy?
Given how much the Packers want the ball in Rodgers' hands, it might be tough for Lacy to get many more touches than he's had in his first two years. Lacy's carries actually went down last season despite playing in one more game than he did in 2013. However, his yards per carry increased from 4.1 to 4.6. The biggest change came in the passing game, where Lacy not only caught seven more passes than he did as a rookie but had four touchdown catches after not catching any as a rookie. Lacy almost never played on third down as a rookie, but the Packers turned him into an every-down back.
- Rob Demovsky

[h=2]Minnesota Vikings[/h]

Has Teddy Bridgewater shown you enough that he can take a big step in his second year?
I don't expect him to turn into a top-five fantasy QB, but in light of the fact Bridgewater was still able to be productive with so little help around him as a rookie, I certainly expect him to take a step this season. He'll have plenty of weapons on offense, and Adrian Peterson's presence should give defenses more to think about than just Bridgewater, who was pressured 29.9 percent of the time last season. With better protection and a deeper group of skill-position players, Bridgewater's numbers should be noticeably better in 2015.
Which receiver will put up the best numbers for the Vikings?
It's hard to pinpoint one receiver who will put up huge numbers, given how much the team is likely to spread the ball around. But my bet would be onCharles Johnson to lead the receivers in catches, while Mike Wallace leads the group in yards. Those two receivers will start in the Vikings' base offensive sets, and Bridgewater seems comfortable with both. The Vikings will get both the ball on the screen plays they liked to use last season, and Wallace's speed has helped him on screens, in addition to downfield throws, in the past.
Are there any concerns that nearly a full season off will have a negative impact on Peterson's production?
The Vikings certainly aren't showing any. Peterson has said he feels more fit and more explosive than he did before his suspension, adding he had extra time to work out because he had no endorsement appearances on his schedule in the offseason. He said he's also motivated to "shock the world" after being gone for 15 games last season, and he bristles at the idea he's going to slow down at age 30. I don't know if Peterson can play at a high level until his mid-30s, like he's said; when Walter Payton and Emmitt Smith couldn't do it, it's a lot to expect anyone can. But I certainly think Peterson will be productive as a feature back in 2015, especially if he gets involved in the Vikings' passing game the way they've talked about using him.
- Ben Goessling

[h=2]New Orleans Saints[/h]

With all the changes in the offseason, is the Saints' philosophy on offense changing to be less pass-heavy?
Slightly, yes. But this will still be a pass-first, pass-heavy team. I still expect something like 4,800 yards and 35 TD passes from Drew Brees. Obviously, it's hard to see that after they traded away Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills. But remember, the Saints were throwing for 5,000 yards before Graham ever arrived, and the cupboard is still far from bare. They'll throw a bunch to their running backs, especially newly signed C.J. Spiller. And the trade for centerMax Unger was in large part to help the passing game, since Brees relies so much on being able to step up in the pocket. The Saints' makeover was mostly about becoming more efficient after Brees turned the ball over 20 times last season. He felt like he needed to force things since the Saints' defense and pass protection both struggled. The Saints are hoping to take that pressure off of him.
How do you see the backfield touches/roles playing out? Will Spiller be more than just a pass-catching back?
I think Spiller will primarily be used as a pass-catcher since the Saints' backfield is so deep. But Spiller will be awfully dangerous on draw plays when he's in there in nickel packages. I look at the way the Saints used Darren Sproles as a good comparison, because the backfield was equally crowded in those years. Spiller might run a little more than Sproles did, but I'd still project more receiving yards than rushing yards, maybe 60-plus catches and close to 1,000 total yards from scrimmage. However, the "if healthy" is a huge disclaimer with Spiller when it comes to those numbers. Mark Ingram will be the primary ball carrier, with 200-plus rushes, close to 1,000 rushing yards and a little uptick in receptions now that Pierre Thomas is gone. And Khiry Robinson could be the odd man out, with just a few touches per game, though he'll be a great option in the weeks when either Ingram or Spiller is sidelined.
Brandin Cooks is everyone's breakout candidate, but is that too much to ask for someone with 10 games of NFL experience?
It depends on how much you're asking. I don't expect Antonio Brown numbers just yet (even though Cooks is a similar size and style of receiver), but I do think he's absolutely ready to take on the role of New Orleans' No. 1 playmaker. It's one of the things that coach Sean Payton and Brees rave about with Cooks, how impressed they are with his work ethic and attitude. He was calling Brees in mid-January, chomping at the bit to start working out, and they spent much of the summer together in San Diego. I expect a ton of screen passes, designed to get Cooks free in open space. And the deep ball has really started to come around for him, too. Steve Smith Sr. is another good comparison that comes to mind for Cooks' potential. I think he could approach 90 catches and surpass 1,000 yards. Touchdowns are a question mark since he's not a prototypical red zone option at 5-foot-10 and 189 pounds. But he'll score a lot of touchdowns on plays outside the red zone, so 10 is a realistic number.
- Mike Triplett

[h=2]Philadelphia Eagles[/h]

How will DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews split the backfield work?
Based on their limited preseason work together, it looks as if Murray will get about two-thirds of the Eagles' carries while Mathews gets more like a third, with a few sprinkled in for Darren Sproles. Because the Eagles led the NFL in offensive plays last season, and because Chip Kelly clearly wants to accentuate the running game this season, that should still translate into a fair amount of carries for both backs. And if either is injured -- an all-too-frequent occurrence for both players -- the other should be able to pick up the slack.
What kind of numbers can be expected from Sam Bradford in his first year in the system?
Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez produced solid fantasy numbers (about 4,300 yards, 30 TDs) the past two seasons in Kelly's offense. All indications are that Bradford, if healthy, should be well beyond the baseline set by those other quarterbacks. While Kelly wants to run the ball, the Eagles' up-tempo offense should still produce a lot of passing attempts for Bradford. And Bradford, who wasn't exactly overwhelmed by the talent around him in St. Louis, has talked all summer about being excited by the number of playmakers he has to throw to.
Is either Jordan Matthews or Nelson Agholor capable of putting up No. 1 WR numbers like DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin did in years past?
Absolutely. It's important to note that Jackson and Maclin each put up career-high numbers in their one season as Kelly's primary receiver. Matthews and Agholor are young and may have some growing pains, but both should be targeted regularly and both seem capable of generating big plays. With Agholor especially, the yards-after-catch numbers should be excellent.
- Phil Sheridan

[h=2]New York Giants[/h]

How will the Giants' backfield play out this season in terms of roles? Who will be the best fantasy option?
The Giants have been very difficult to read all camp when it comes to the running backs. It's been a strict rotation throughout camp, with Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams and Shane Vereen all getting plenty of reps with the first team. Vereen's role seems fairly well defined. He's the passing-downs back, due to his abilities as a receiver and a pass protector. And while he could play his way into more early-down work, it seems more likely that Williams or Jennings will get that. Jennings was the unquestioned starter at this time last year and is the favorite to be that again. But concerns about Jennings' health, combined with the progress Williams is making in Year 2 (especially catching the ball) have muddied the situation. It's not out of the question that Williams could beat out Jennings for the No. 1 job. More likely, they'll rotate backs in an effort to keep everyone healthy. Personally, it's a fantasy situation I'd recommend avoiding if possible.
Victor Cruz is coming off a serious injury, so what kind of numbers can we expect from him? And how will his presence affect Odell Beckham Jr.?
If Cruz is healthy, expect him to move into the slot receiver role with Beckham and Rueben Randle staying in their spots on the outside. The Giants are in three-receiver sets more than 80 percent of the time, but on the rare occasion when they use only two, it's possible Cruz will be the one to come off the field. As for numbers, the slot receiver in this Ben McAdoo offense will have the opportunity to catch a lot of passes. So if Cruz is on the field, he should see a good volume of targets. But Beckham's presence as a game-breaker who has good chemistry with Eli Manning likely caps Cruz's value in terms of yardage and touchdown production. I'd expect him to rank behind Beckham, Randle andLarry Donnell as a red zone option, for example. And while it's possible he could turn some short stuff into big gains, that's also where the knee injury could hold him back. Speed won't be an issue for Cruz as much as power will, his ability to drive off that knee and make explosive plays the way he used to. Even if he's healthy all season (no sure thing), I wouldn't expect Cruz to produce like a No. 1 receiver anymore. And I don't think his presence affects Beckham's production one bit.
- Dan Graziano

[h=2]San Francisco 49ers[/h]

Colin Kaepernick has not progressed like many expected or hoped, but are there signs he can bounce back and put up strong numbers?
The offense is new, but the man running it is not. New offensive coordinator Geep Chryst is Kaepernick's former QB coach, so he knows Kaepernick's skill set intimately. Last season, the Niners tried to fit a square peg into a round hole, and the results were ugly with Kaepernick. Chryst and new head coach Jim Tomsula want the offense to have fun. That means going back to the type of offense that made Kaepernick such an immediate success ... before last season's falloff.
After the addition of Torrey Smith and following a very poor season from Vernon Davis, what is the expected offensive approach from the new coaching staff?
Run first to set up the pass. Sounds easy enough, but you got a dose of it in the Niners' second preseason game when they ran the ball 38 times and passed only 17 in a 23-6 victory. Still, being able to run with Carlos Hyde in a new zone-blocking scheme theoretically sets up the play-action pass. And with Smith taking off the top of defenses with his speed and Davis rejuvenated, the Niners figure to take more deep shots ... as long as the rebuilt offensive line gives Kaepernick time.
How much confidence do you have in Hyde being the most trustworthy source on offense in 2015?
Honestly, more after two preseason games than I did before training camp. He looks very comfortable running behind the zone-blocking scheme and, if you squint your eyes just enough, his moves in traffic resemble those of Frank Gore. Hyde averaged 4.0 yards per carry as a rookie, and his four touchdowns were tied with Gore for most on the team. In the preseason game against the Cowboys, Hyde had 39 yards rushing on seven carries, a 5.6 average. The Niners have trust in him, and by being a run-first team in 2015, it would seem they trust him more than Kaepernick on offense. Then again, if the zone-read makes a return, as hinted, then Kaepernick's legs could be a factor again. I would say 800 yards rushing and six touchdowns would be realistic for Hyde, though Reggie Bush will be the pass-catching back.
- Paul Gutierrez

[h=2]Seattle Seahawks[/h]

How will Jimmy Graham fit into a run-heavy Seahawks offense? How big of a statistical hit will Graham take from his customary numbers in New Orleans?
The Seahawks will continue to favor the run even with Graham in the mix as their presumed No. 1 target, which means he probably won't catch as many passes as he did in New Orleans, where he averaged almost 89 of them over the past four seasons. But he figures to get plenty of looks in the red zone, and all the attention that defenses have to pay to Marshawn Lynch and Seattle's running game should, in theory, free Graham up for big plays down the field. He explained it like this: "Sometimes in New Orleans, I'm getting targeted like 14 times in a game and a lot of those are catch-hits. Here, when I look on film and I see these safeties, everyone is so worried about the run that when you are open, normally, you are one-on-one and you just have to make a move on one guy."
Is there any sign that Lynch could see his workload managed after four straight seasons of 313-plus touches? Or should we just expect another year of Beast Mode?
There's been nothing to suggest that will happen. Of course, Lynch is 29 years old, he's taken (and delivered) quite the pounding during his nine seasons in the NFL, and his balky back requires constant management. But as long as it holds up, there's no reason to believe his workload will decrease much in 2015.
- Brady Henderson

[h=2]St. Louis Rams[/h]

What can we expect from Todd Gurley this season? And how much will Tre Mason be a factor, relative to Gurley's availability?
All signs point to Gurley being right on schedule to return sooner than later. The real question is when he'll be ready to take on the type of workload the Rams envisioned when they drafted him No. 10 overall in April. He won't play in the preseason, which means when he's cleared he'll have to take a few games to slowly work his way back into the mix. It's probably fair to expect him to ease his way in with a limited role in the first four or five weeks, then take on a greater role in the second half of the season. When he does, he should become the focal point of the offense. Mason will handle the bulk of the work until Gurley is ready, and the Rams hope to use him as a speedy complement to the powerful Gurley when both are healthy. But Mason's role will diminish when Gurley is ready to take on more carries.
Is there any Rams wide receiver that will be worth taking a chance on in fantasy?
Brian Quick was on his way to something of a breakthrough season in 2014 before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 8. At that point, Quick had 25 catches for 375 yards and three touchdowns in six-plus games. Those aren't huge numbers by any means, but he had a shot to become the first Rams wideout to reach 800 or more receiving yards since Torry Holt in 2008 and an outside shot to become the first Rams pass-catcher to post 1,000-plus receiving yards since Holt in 2007. He's wowed teammates and coaches in this camp with his recovery and looks like the team's best wideout in practice. By the time the season starts, he should be back at full strength and has the additional motivation of playing for a contract, as he enters the final year of his rookie deal. That buy-low potential could make him worth a late-round look.
- Nick Wagoner

[h=2]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]

With a strong wide receiver duo at his disposal, do you expect Jameis Winston to be given more freedom in the passing game than usual for a rookie?
Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will get their fair share of targets, but don't expect the Bucs to suddenly turn into a pass-happy team. Coach Lovie Smith believes in having a strong running game. Winston will not get an inordinate amount of pass attempts.
After another disappointing season from Doug Martin, is it folly to expect him to be a productive back again?
Martin should be in for a bounce-back season. He is healthier than he has been the past two seasons. He also should be running behind an improved offensive line. Martin should get back to being a 1,000-yard rusher.
- Pat Yasinskas

[h=2]Washington Redskins[/h]

Will we ever see Robert Griffin III produce like he did as a rookie again?
No, because that would mean he's running quite a bit, and that's not going to happen. Or, rather, if he does, he's just not the same explosive player; he's fast but not the same threat he was in 2012. The key for Griffin and the offense is the run game. If that works, then Griffin will be in better spots to succeed. He excelled off play-action in 2012 -- often off stretch zone and zone-read, neither of which will be a big part of the offense this season -- so that will lead to some big plays. But he's not equipped yet to sit back in the pocket and pick apart a defense. The Redskins will have to stay ahead of the chains and keep him in favorable down and distances to make it work.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 0px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>After a disappointing 2014, is Pierre Garcon a bounce-back candidate, or is he a player to avoid in fantasy drafts?
Garcon went from 113 catches two years ago to 68 last season. My guess is that, if everyone stays relatively healthy, he'll be in the 70-75 catch range. They did move him to the Z receiver spot, hoping to move him around a little more, and he did lose some weight in the offseason (wasn't really needed, but it could help). The Redskins say they'll use more play-action, and Garcon has averaged 16.3 yards per play-action catch the past three seasons. Griffin connected on 79.4 percent of his throws to Garcon last season, but none went for a touchdown.
- John Keim

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2015

[h=1]Insider Trading: Key fantasy questions for all 16 AFC teams[/h]
ESPN INSIDER

Every Friday during the 2014 regular season, NFL Nation's "Insider Trading" gave football fans and fantasy owners insight on all 32 teams that they could put to use in pick 'ems and making key lineup decisions.
We decided to get an early start this season and the writers arrived at training camps armed with questions to consider throughout camp and the preseason in hopes of giving fantasy owners the best information for making tough draft-day decisions.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The responses were so well-thought-out that we've split things up by conference. Answers to those questions for each of the 16 AFC teams appear below. We hope you find our writers' responses useful in understanding how roles are playing out as the 2015 regular season approaches.
To see NFL Nation's answers for all 16 NFC teams, click here.

[h=2]Baltimore Ravens[/h]

What does the arrival of Marc Trestman mean for Justin Forsett this season? And to what degree will he share the running workload?
Forsett expects to see more passes come his way. Let's not forget that he has been primarily a third-down back for most of his career. One of the mainstays of Trestman's offense is getting the ball to his running backs in space. There have been seven instances where a running back has caught at least 69 passes in a season under Trestman: Derek Loville in San Francisco; Larry Centers and Michael Pittman in Arizona; Charlie Garner (twice) in Oakland; and Matt Forte(twice) in Chicago. In Trestman's two seasons in Chicago, Forte caught a total of 176 passes, 48 more than any other running back in the NFL. It's safe to project 60 to 70 catches for Forsett. As for sharing the workload, Forsett is the unquestioned No. 1 running back and that won't change.
With Torrey Smith gone and Steve Smith Sr. in the twilight of his career, could Breshad Perriman be this year's star rookie wideout out of necessity?
It's tough to say at this point. Perriman hasn't practiced since injuring his knee on the first day of training camp. Once he returns, it will take time for him to make an impact. He wasn't a polished receiver coming out of Central Florida, but Perriman is the Ravens' best deep threat. He will have a role in this passing game, but the injury has made it a steeper learning curve for him.
- Jamison Hensley

[h=2]Buffalo Bills[/h]

Will LeSean McCoy really get the huge workload many are projecting? How does Fred Jackson factor in?
Assuming McCoy's preseason hamstring injury doesn't affect his availability at the start of the regular season, all indications are that he'll get at least 300 carries this season. Coach Rex Ryan has even gone so far as to say McCoy is putting up 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. Obviously, he'll need to stay healthy to do that, but as long as he's ready to go, I anticipate the Bills feeding McCoy the ball constantly. Jackson will also factor into the mix, but his health and workload are bigger concerns, given his age. Jackson could be used on third downs for blitz pickup, which could also give him opportunities to catch the ball out of the backfield.
After dealing with some injuries as a rookie, will Sammy Watkinsbreak out as a sophomore? Or will the QB situation keep him from doing so?
I would hesitate to predict Watkins putting up significantly better numbers than he did last season. He's still dealing with soreness and sat out multiple practices during training camp with glute and groin issues. That has limited his time with the Bills' quarterbacks on the practice field, and even then, he's had to work with three different first-team quarterbacks because of the Bills' competition at that position. Watkins has the talent to put up 100 receiving yards on any given day, but it's hard to see him doing that consistently, given his health concerns and the Bills' quarterback carousel.
- Mike Rodak

[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals[/h]

Jeremy Hill is being drafted as an RB1, so will Giovani Bernard get enough opportunities to make a difference in fantasy?

Hill will clearly get the largest share of opportunities in Cincinnati's running game, but he'll also factor into the passing game from the backfield and the slot. But Bernard can't be completely dismissed. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson wants a balanced attack with the two running backs, and head coach Marvin Lewis has been emphatic in saying he believes the days of winning with one bell-cow back are ancient history.
Will any other receiving target besides A.J. Green be given the opportunity to matter in fantasy?
While Tyler Eifert and Marvin Jones will score their share of fantasy points, there is one name that's being forgotten: Mohamed Sanu. The Bengals are hopeful for a big year from Sanu after he carried them for much of the 2014 season while Green and Jones were hurt. He has spent the preseason as the effective No. 2 receiver, regularly lining up opposite Green. What makes Sanu an attractive potential fantasy pickup is the fact that he can do so much for Cincinnati's offense. Not only can he catch passes and run reverses, but he can pass, too. He won't throw enough to make a real difference, but one touchdown completion from him could help win a tight head-to-head fantasy matchup. Through three seasons, Sanu is 5-for-5 with two touchdown passes and a still-perfect 158.3 passer rating.
- Coley Harvey

[h=2]Cleveland Browns[/h]

The Browns had a running back carousel last season, and they've only added to it with rookie Duke Johnson. How will the Browns backfield workload shake out this season?
It appears it will shake out the way it did last season: A week-to-week proposition until someone grabs hold of the job. The Browns had high hopes for Johnson coming out of minicamp, but an early hamstring injury set him back. The Browns would have loved Isaiah Crowell to grab hold of the job, but he didn't. Terrance West's inconsistencies continued. This is a position that early in the season may be in flux, but may settle down by midseason. That's what the Browns hope, at least.
From what you've seen from Johnny Manziel this preseason, is there any reason to think he'll be a fantasy factor in the years to come?
This season, unlikely. Manziel did a very good job this preseason in his work to become more of a pocket passer. But that's a huge transition for a guy who made so many plays with his legs in college. Manziel admitted this preseason that he never called a protection in college, never called a play. It was just line up with a handful of plays, call the number for one and go. The emphasis was on speed and pace, not pre-snap reads or recognition. Add that challenge to the off-field challenge Manziel faces after a 10-week stay in rehab and it's not tough to see why the Browns settled early on Josh McCown. Now, McCown has never played 16 games in a season, so it's likely Manziel will play at some point. It's best not to expect big things from him, though, at least not in 2015. His learning curve is steep, and the bar for success for him in preseason was low.
- Pat McManamon

[h=2]Denver Broncos[/h]

How will Gary Kubiak taking over as head coach affect the Broncos' passing game in terms of fantasy?
This offense has impact players on the outside and a proven system when it comes to running the ball -- in Kubiak's 20 previous seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, he's seen 15 1,000-yard rushing seasons for backs. This team will score plenty if things go as expected, it's just the touchdowns that may be distributed differently. Overall, though, Kubiak will not handcuff Manning in the passing game and Manning will have plenty of chances to finish drives with touchdown passes.
Combined with his age and how he finished last season, are there any concerns for Peyton Manning this season?
Manning adjusted his workout schedule in the offseason; he started working out earlier in the year to get ready for a new season than he has in the past. And he adjusted his diet and arrived to training camp leaner and even more fit than he has been traditionally. The Broncos have also instituted a system where Manning's schedule had rest days built in. The results have been easy to see. He has thrown the ball well throughout camp and looked fresh. The proof will always be in how things go by November, December and into January. But physically, Manning looked better in training camp this time around than he has in the previous three years, and he looked plenty good in those previous three camps.
Is C.J. Anderson the real deal, and will he be expected to carry the load in the Broncos' backfield?
He is the real deal. His vision, decisiveness and one-cut-and-go ability fits exactly what Kubiak wants in a running back in the offense. Anderson has looked comfortable in the offense right from the first offseason workout and is expected to get plenty of carries in a proven system. If he stays healthy, he should easily reach career bests in carries and rushing yards.
- Jeff Legwold

[h=2]Houston Texans[/h]

Now that he is the top receiving option, can DeAndre Hopkins take another step forward in Year 3? Or will the lack of a proven QB hold him back?
One thing to remember about Brian Hoyer is that he is not afraid to throw the ball deep, and that's one area where he and Hopkins will excel together. Hopkins does a good job of getting open, and I think he will be able to handle the added pressure of being the defense's primary focus in the passing game. It's also worth noting that despite the uncertainty at the other receiver positions, this is actually a very talented group as a whole.
When do you expect Arian Foster to return to game action, realistically? And while he's out, is there any back on the roster you expect to shoulder most of the load and be worth owning in fantasy early on?
Foster's surgery went very well, so there's a lot of optimism in Houston that his return could be sooner than expected. It's possible he won't need to go on injured reserve with a designation to return, though that is an option and the Texans can make that move in the first week of September. In his absence, the Texans will use several running backs to fill the void left by Foster. I don't expect this team to provide one workhorse candidate who could be a fantasy starter. The closest might be Alfred Blue, but he will share his carries with the Texans' other running backs.
- Tania Ganguli

[h=2]Indianapolis Colts[/h]

How will Andre Johnson's usual numbers be affected now that he's part of a crowded and talented receiving corps in Indy?
Johnson likely won't lead the Colts in receiving yards, receiving average or touchdowns this season, because those honors likely will belong to T.Y. Hiltonand one of the tight ends. But it won't be shocking if Johnson leads the Colts in receptions because he'll be quarterback Andrew Luck's security blanket. Johnson will be used in the slot the majority of the time, which means his 6-foot-3 frame will give him a size advantage over most of the cornerbacks he'll be matched up against.
Will Frank Gore be asked to carry most of the load in the backfield? And is he being underrated in fantasy in this powerful offense?
Gore has rushed for at least 1,000 yards in eight of his 10 NFL seasons. I wouldn't put it down in permanent ink that Gore will make it nine of 11 seasons, though. It's not that Gore can't do it, it's that the Colts have so many weapons on the outside that they will still be a pass-heavy team. The Colts need Gore to be productive -- his 4.5 career rushing average will do -- because he can force defenses to stay honest and respect their running game.
- Mike Wells

[h=2]Jacksonville Jaguars[/h]

Many forecast T.J. Yeldon to win the starting gig, but how will the touches be split up?
The Jaguars do, indeed, view Yeldon as a three-down back, but they've also said they're going to ease him into that role. That means that while he may start, the plan is to rotate carries between Yeldon, Denard Robinson,Toby Gerhart and possibly even Bernard Pierce, if he makes the team. However, the expectation inside the building is that Yeldon will end up getting the bulk of the carries by the end of the season and the roles will settle into this: Yeldon on first and second down, Robinson as a change-of-pace back and Gerhart as the third-down back.
Is Allen Robinson a legit breakout WR this season? Or will Blake Bortles' struggles keep Robinson from putting up consistent weekly numbers?
Robinson has been the Jaguars' most impressive offensive player in training camp, and yes, that includes Julius Thomas. That's not to say that Thomas wasn't impressive before he suffered a broken hand in the preseason opener -- he certainly was -- but Robinson has made "wow" plays on a regular basis. He was on pace to catch 77 passes as a rookie in 2014 before a stress fracture sidelined him for the final six games, so his emergence isn't really coming out of nowhere. But the consistency he has shown in practice and the amount of work he put in during the offseason makes it logical that he'd be headed for a big year.
- Mike DiRocco

[h=2]Kansas City Chiefs[/h]

Many in the fantasy community love Travis Kelce's potential, but is it wise to expect an increase over his 2014 numbers?
Kelce was only a part-time player in 2014, but the Chiefs released veteran tight end Anthony Fasano to open up more playing time for Kelce, so his numbers should increase. I wouldn't expect a huge jump from last season, but better numbers. It would be a huge disappointment if Kelce doesn't score more than the five touchdowns he had last season.
Can Jeremy Maclin come anywhere close to his tremendous 2014 numbers with Alex Smith as his QB?
I wouldn't expect Maclin to have another season like he did for the Philadelphia Eagles, when he set career highs in catches and yards and tied his career high in touchdowns. My expectations are more in line with his career averages (69 catches, 954 yards, seven TDs).
Jamaal Charles saw 83 fewer touches in 2014 than he did in 2013, and Knile Davis was the beneficiary (receiving 69 more). Do you expect the workload to be handled similarly this season?
Charles' workload decreased mostly because he was fighting through one nagging injury after another. If he's healthy this season, I would expect his touches to increase and those for Davis to go down. Charles is far more skilled than Davis. Over the past two seasons, Charles has averaged 1.5 more yards per carry than Davis. In addition, Davis is also suspect as a pass receiver and protector.
- Adam Teicher

[h=2]Miami Dolphins[/h]

The Dolphins added receiving weapons to their passing game in the offseason, so what impact will that have onRyan Tannehill's statistics?
The thought process with the Dolphins was to bring in receivers who fit Tannehill's strengths. Greg Jennings, first-round pick DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills and tight end Jordan Cameron can all make difficult catches and go up and fight for the football. That was an area that hurt Tannehill last season, especially in the red zone. It will be hard for Tannehill to beat his yards (4,045) and completion percentage (66.4) from a year ago. That is asking a lot. But I expect Tannehill's touchdown production to improve with his new weapons. That is good news for fantasy owners.
Lamar Miller is difficult to project, so how do you see his usage playing out?
One of the biggest criticisms I had with the Dolphins last season was the inconsistent use of Miller. He put up career numbers in 2014 despite averaging just 13.5 carries per game. Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin told me recently that he is open to Miller getting 20 or more carries in a game, but the Dolphins' scheme and rotation simply doesn't call for it. I'd estimate about 50-60 percent of Miami's rushing attack is based off the read-option. That means Miller could get the ball or Tannehill can keep it for a run or short screen. The defense essentially dictates a good portion of Miller's workload, which is risky for fantasy owners. I view Miller as a solid No. 3 running back. You can't rely on him to start every week, but there will be games where Miller breaks a long one and gets more than 100 yards rushing with a touchdown.
- James Walker

[h=2]New England Patriots[/h]

Especially with Shane Vereen gone, how will the Pats backfield shake out this season in terms of usage?
Vereen played 52.9 percent of the offensive snaps in 2014 as the team's top passing-down back, which in a lot of ways is like the lead back in the team's system because of how much they throw the ball. As of now, 2014 fourth-round pick James White is the top candidate to replace him, as he's gained some early separation over his primary competition for the pass-catching role. While the Patriots feature a game-plan specific offense that tailors its approach on a week-to-week basis, and Dion Lewis is making a charge to challenge White for the top passing-back role, this is a guesstimate as to how snaps might be broken down: LeGarrette Blount gets 80 percent of the big-back carries, followed byJonas Gray (20 percent), with White getting 75 percent of the passing-back snaps and either Lewis or Travaris Cadet accounting for the remaining 25 percent.
Brandon LaFell set career highs across the board in his first season with the Patriots, so can he take another step this season?
It starts with health for LaFell, who opened training camp on the physically unable to perform list and had not practiced for the first three weeks of camp. The Patriots expect him back, but he's not there yet, and that has to be a concern for fantasy owners until he is. Once he clears that hurdle, he will again be a big part of the team's plans as the top outside target.
- Mike Reiss

[h=2]New York Jets[/h]

What kind of numbers can we expect from Brandon Marshall in his first season with the Jets? And what impact will that have on Eric Decker's numbers?
Marshall won't catch 100 passes like he has in the past, but he should be the team's leading receiver. Clearly, he's the No. 1 option in the passing game. As long as he stays healthy, he should be the Jets' first 1,000-yard receiver since 2007. His numbers will be limited somewhat because they won't be a high-volume passing team -- the goal is a balanced attack -- but he should be in the 80-catch, 1,000-yard range. He will be particularly useful in the red zone because of his size and strength. In theory, Marshall's presence should create better opportunities for Decker, who will see more single coverage than last season. His catch total could slip, but there will be more chances for big plays.
How will the backfield roles play out for the Jets?
Without a doubt, Chris Ivory is the No. 1 back. He will start in the base offense and he also will be used in short yardage and at the goal line. He will be spelled occasionally by Bilal Powell, who will be the third-down back. There probably will be a third back, but that's still up in the air. Stevan Ridley will probably begin the season on the PUP list, leaving Zac Stacy as the likely No. 3, but don't expect too many carries. This looks to be a two-man show with Ivory and Powell.
- Rich Cimini

[h=2]Oakland Raiders[/h]

Despite very limited experience, Latavius Murray is a favorite to lead the way in the backfield. How do you expect the workload to be spread out?
The Raiders believe Murray is ready to be the lead back. Roy Helu will play on third down, and he is a solid receiving weapon. But the Raiders are going to spread things around and have many formations. I think Murray is going to be in some third-down packages and ideally, he'd get the lion's share of carries.
Amari Cooper is thought to be the most talented rookie WR, but can he put up numbers with Derek Carr at QB? It's been 10 years since the Raiders had a 1,000-yard receiver, so is this the year that drought ends?
The Raiders are very comfortable with the Carr-Cooper connection. While offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave likes to run, there is a reason that the Raiders used the No. 4 overall pick on a receiver. Carr has a nice deep ball and I expect Oakland to be aggressive in trying to get Cooper the ball. Asking a rookie to gain a 1,000 yards receiving is a tall order, but there is no doubt Cooper will get the opportunity as Oakland's No. 1 receiver.
- Bill Williamson

[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]

Some are forecasting a breakout year from Martavis Bryant, so how do you see his role in the offense this season?
I see his role as expansive, much more than last season, when he didn't know all the plays and resorted to go routes and lob catches -- and still produced eight touchdowns. Bryant has more upside than any young player on the roster. He has the potential to be a 1,000-yard receiver, no doubt, but the recent news that he's facing a 4-game suspension to begin the season will make that increasingly difficult. When Bryant is on the field, though, expect Ben Roethlisberger to take at least 1-2 deep shots to him each game, just for fun. He's also great over the middle on the slant. The question with him: Can he handle all the nuances of the offense? Has he picked everything up? One thing is clear: He's too good to keep off the field.
Is DeAngelo Williams simply a stopgap while Le'Veon Bell serves his suspension, or will he actually cut into Bell's workload?
He won't cut into Bell's workload very much at all, maybe 1-2 carries max, but expect Bell to stay around last season's average of 18 carries a game. Bell probably won't lose touches because of how much he'll touch the ball in the passing game. Between backup running back/fullback work and receiver reverses, the Steelers gave about 100 carries to players not named Bell. Williams will now get the majority of those touches.
- Jeremy Fowler

[h=2]San Diego Chargers[/h]

The Chargers added Melvin Gordon to a crowded backfield. What are expectations for Gordon this season, and how do you expect him to be used?
Similar to Ryan Mathews last season when he was healthy, Gordon will be used as San Diego's early-down back. But his carries will be limited due to the fact that Danny Woodhead will come in on third downs and Branden Oliver will be used as a change-of-pace back. If he stays healthy, expect Gordon to get 200 to 250 touches and have an outside shot at running for 1,000 yards.
With Antonio Gates suspended for four games, can Ladarius Greenfinally step into fantasy relevance? How does Gates' suspension impact Philip Rivers?
Green certainly will get an opportunity. He's been more of a focal point of the offense during training camp. Heading into the final year of his rookie contract, Green understands this is his chance to prove he's a starting NFL tight end. Gates has served as Rivers' security blanket for a decade, particularly in the red zone and on third down. The Chargers have other weapons to replace the production, but the team's efficiency in those critical situations could suffer.
After a disappointing sophomore campaign, is it wise to expect a bounce-back season from Keenan Allen? Will they get him the ball downfield more often than they did last season?
Allen has lost weight and appeared faster during training camp practices. I don't expect Allen to be used any more this season as a vertical threat, though.Malcom Floyd and Jacoby Jones will serve that role for the Chargers. However, expect Allen to get more opportunities on crossing routes and bubble screens where he can create space after the catch.
- Eric Williams

[h=2]Tennessee Titans[/h]

Bishop Sankey was a fantasy disappointment last season, but is he ready to produce this season?
There is absolutely no guarantee that he's the running back to own this season. Even if a lead guy emerges, Ken Whisenhunt said it'll still be a scenario where there is a third-down back and a role for Dexter McCluster. Sankey simply lacks the spark and electricity one would expect from a back of his style. But he did get good blocking and run well in the team's second preseason game, ripping off 18- and 19-yard runs. Rookie David Cobb is bigger and not as fast, but looks to have a knack for finding the right lane and getting positive runs. Antonio Andrews will also be a factor.
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</article>Is there any reason to expect Marcus Mariota will be productive enough running the ball to be an occasional fantasy starter?
How deep is your league? If you're streaming starters, I think there will be times and places he could be a good option; one of those will actually be opening day in Tampa Bay. The Bucs run a straight forward cover-2 and I think Mariota will understand it and be able to find some success. His rushing stats and smart decision-making can produce some good days, but there will be tough days for him, as there are for virtually every rookie quarterback.

- Paul Kuharsky

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2015

[h=1]Who are the running backs to watch near the goal line? NFL Nation has the answers[/h]
ESPN.com

Which running backs will be gobbling up short-yardage rushing scores? NFL Nation reporters identify the ball carriers who could be top producers for fantasy owners.

Dallas Cowboys
This is still difficult to answer because the running back competition has not truly taken off in training camp. None of their runners has a goal-line build. Joseph Randle's game is built more on quickness. Darren McFadden's is built on speed. Lance Dunbar is a combination of the two. Randle will be the lead back, so he will get the first crack at goal-line carries but he will have to prove he can pick up the dirty yards that made DeMarco Murray so successful last year. -- Todd Archer

New York Giants
Again, tough to tell, because the Giants have been rotating backs so much in camp. Andre Williams led the team last year with 38 carries inside the red zone and 18 inside the 10-yard line. But Williams' opportunities arose due toRashad Jennings' injuries, and there's no reason to think Jennings wouldn't have gotten those goal-line carries had he been healthy. As it stood, Jennings got 24 carries in the red zone and 14 inside the 10. If all three backs are healthy and productive – Jennings, Williams and Shane Vereen – my guess is Williams has the best shot at goal-line work, since the Giants have concerns about Jennings' durability and they think Williams runs with more power. -- Dan Graziano

Philadelphia Eagles
DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews are both likely to get the ball when the Eagles are in close. You can probably rule out Sam Bradford taking too many carries away from the backs. Murray may get more touches overall, but Mathews is a big, strong back who seems made for goal-line situations. -- Phil Sheridan

Washington Redskins
The Redskins did add a big back in rookie Matt Jones, but Alfred Morris will still be the guy in the run game. What helps Morris is having a bigger line to run behind this season so, unlike his first two seasons, they're set up to be a power team inside the 5-yard line -- or at least to keep teams guessing. In his first two years, they tried to vary the blocking, but were built for the outside zone. Morris is coming off a career-low average of 2.44 yards per carry in the red zone – and 1.24 yards inside the 10 (the second straight season that number had dropped). -- John Keim

Chicago Bears
This is a tough one for the Bears because Matt Forte historically is taken out of the game near the goal line. He had only six rushing touchdowns in 2014, but I would still take Forte. Rookie Jeremy Langford, who many expect to be Forte's primary backup, is not a physical runner. He's more about speed and quickness. Veteran Jacquizz Rodgers is generously listed at 5-foot-8; I can't see Rodgers getting too many carries inside the 5-yard line. Go with Forte. -- Jeff Dickerson

Detroit Lions
As long as Joique Bell is healthy, he's going to be the between-the-tackles guy for the Lions throughout the season. So expect him to maintain a goal-line role. A sleeper could be fullback Michael Burton since the Lions likely won't be shy to run a fullback set close to the goal line. But as far as running backs, Bell is your goal-line guy -- at least to begin the season. If he gets hurt, it's anyone's guess. -- Michael Rothstein

Green Bay Packers
Last year, Eddie Lacy ranked tied for eighth in the NFL in rushing attempts in goal-to-go situations with 20. The next-closest Packers players wereJames Starks with six and John Kuhn with four. Lacy scored on six of those 20 carries, while Starks and Kuhn each scored once. There's no reason to think that order will change. -- Rob Demovsky

Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have indicated they're going to give Adrian Peterson the bulk of the work, and people around the team don't expect Peterson to be taken out on the goal line, even though Matt Asiata was one of the league's best short-yardage running backs last season, scoring nine touchdowns from 7 yards and in. It might be worth drafting Asiata for goal-line carries, but Peterson still figures to be the main ball carrier around the goal line. -- Ben Goessling

Atlanta Falcons
Devonta Freeman will be the go-to guy in short-yardage situations.Steven Jackson held that role last year, but the new coaching staff got rid of Jackson. Freeman views himself as an every-down back, while rookie Tevin Coleman and veteran Antone Smith are speedy, big-play threats. Although Freeman's only rushing touchdown as a rookie last season was a 31-yard sprint against New Orleans, he should get plenty of opportunities to punch it into the end zone this year. -- Vaughn McClure

Carolina Panthers
Quarterback Cam Newton. Jonathan Stewart may be the featured back now, but Newton has 33 career rushing touchdowns, including five last season. He's still the best choice out of the read-option. -- David Newton

New Orleans Saints
Mark Ingram will likely get the bulk of New Orleans' goal-line carries, and he should come close to 10 touchdowns after scoring nine last year. But the Saints do more rotating at the position than most teams. So C.J. Spiller andKhiry Robinson could spell Ingram at times, keeping him from going too far past 1,000 yards or 10 TDs. -- Mike Triplett

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Doug Martin isn’t particularly big and he had only two rushing touchdowns last year. But he is a powerful runner and is likely to get the most touches near the goal line. Martin has shown before he can be an effective goal-line runner, rushing for 11 touchdowns as a rookie in 2012. He should be helped by an offensive line that was overhauled in the offseason. -- Pat Yasinskas

Arizona Cardinals
Andre Ellington is the workhorse for the Cardinals. Last season, he had five carries inside the 5-yard line and scored from the 2 during the Cards' first preseason game. Arizona has quite a few options to hand the ball off to near the goal line, so don't be surprised when Stepfan Taylor or David Johnson get a few short-yardage touchdowns, as well. -- Josh Weinfuss

San Francisco 49ers
Despite the addition of Reggie Bush, Carlos Hyde is the man at the goal line for the Niners. Bush is better in space, and Hyde is replacing the franchise's all-time leading rusher in Frank Gore. How much do the Niners trust Hyde? Well, his four TD rushes as a rookie last year were tied for the team lead ... along with Gore. -- Paul Gutierrez

Seattle Seahawks
Marshawn Lynch does just about everything in Seattle's backfield, including taking the bulk of the carries near the goal line. Backup Robert Turbinhas carved out a role as the running back in two-minute situations, but Lynch has been Seattle's go-to guy near the goal line (save for the decisive play of Super Bowl XLIX) and for good reason. He has averaged 12 rushing touchdowns over the past four seasons. -- Brady Henderson

St. Louis Rams
The Rams were simply awful in short-yardage rushing situations near the goal line in 2014. From the 5-yard line and in, they attempted 12 rushes, gaining just 8 yards. They did manage four touchdowns but it was actuallyBenny Cunningham who had the most success, scoring twice on as many attempts. But their struggles on short yardage were just another reason they spent the No. 10 overall pick on Todd Gurley. It's unlikely Gurley will get a lot of work in the early going but when he's healthy, he's the obvious choice to get goal-line carries. In the meantime, don't be surprised if it's Cunningham, not Tre Mason, getting those opportunities. -- Nick Wagoner

Buffalo Bills
If the Bills can get back to full health for the start of the regular season, this decision should come down to LeSean McCoy or Fred Jackson. Last season, McCoy had 56 carries in the red zone, more than five times as many as any other Eagles runner. Jackson also led the Bills with 26 red zone carries, more than double the amount of any other Bills ball carrier. Bills coaches have given little indication as to which runner will get more red zone and short-yardage carries, saying both McCoy and Jackson will get an opportunity. Considering McCoy and Jackson weren't both healthy for more than a few training camp practices this summer, it's almost impossible to anticipate which will get the nod this season. -- Mike Rodak

Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins had issues running the ball in the red zone last year. Part of it was due to the offensive line and part of it was on running back Lamar Miller. As a result, Miller packed on about 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason to get stronger and break more tackles. I'm not optimistic Miller will become a great goal-line threat but he will get the bulk of the carries near the end zone. Rookie fifth-round pick Jay Ajayi could eventually develop into a goal-line option. But he was hampered by a hamstring injury for much of training camp and needs to show more. -- James Walker

New England Patriots
Patriots running backs are anything but a sure thing in fantasy football, but if forced to pick one, LeGarrette Blount is the safest choice. The most telling sign was this: On the first day the Patriots wore pads in training camp, on Aug. 1, Blount got the first reps in goal-line drills. He is positioned as the team's lead power back, but also remember he's suspended for the first game of the regular season. -- Mike Reiss

New York Jets
It'll be Chris Ivory's ball when they run near the goal line. He's their best power back and their best overall back, period. He scored a team-high six rushing touchdowns last season; look for that number to increase. Ivory is a good yards-after-contact runner, which makes him appealing in tight quarters. --Rich Cimini

Baltimore Ravens
Justin Forsett scored seven red zone touchdowns for the Ravens last year, but it looks like the Ravens want to get Lorenzo Taliaferro more involved in this area. Taliaferro has eight carries in the red zone this preseason. It makes sense because Taliaferro is the bigger back. But Taliaferro injured his knee in the second preseason game, so his health is worth monitoring. -- Jamison Hensley

Cincinnati Bengals
Jeremy Hill's focus this offseason was to maintain his overall weight, while working out his legs and beefing up the strength within them. The second-year running back wants to be able to run through tackles better, both in the open field and on short downs and distances. When it comes to the goal line, the best bet for fantasy owners will be to keep Hill on their rosters. According to ESPN Stats & Information, as a rookie last season, Hill handled 17 of the Bengals' 35 handoffs in goal-line situations. Giovani Bernard was next with 11.
-- Coley Harvey

Cleveland Browns
Offensive coordinator John DeFilippo said he wants to go with the hot hand. Running backs coach Wilbert Montgomery said he wants a bell-cow back. The best hope, for the team and fantasy players: Isaiah Crowell, who had eight TDs last season. -- Pat McManamon

Pittsburgh Steelers
Le'Veon Bell is the workhorse who will get the majority of the looks. He's all-purpose enough where he can handle 18 to 20 carries a game and still catch five or six passes. In fact, a catch is like a carry for Bell in the red zone, as he will line up in the slot a ton for this offense. The Steelers have placed an emphasis on scoring over yards this offseason, and having Bell on the field gives them the best chance to score. The only thing that will keep Bell from scoring is the Steelers' penchant for passing the ball, but Bell's such a natural receiver that he can't help but be involved. -- Jeremy Fowler

Houston Texans
That's tough to say until Arian Foster's return. Once Foster comes back, it will be him. The Texans' goal-line offense has been a source of consternation for the coaching staff and that's where they really miss Foster. In the Texans' first preseason game, they ran eight plays inside the 5-yard line, even getting all the way to the 1-yard line, but couldn't score. -- Tania Ganguli

Indianapolis Colts
Coach Chuck Pagano often says they want a bell cow to carry the load in the backfield. That bell cow goes by the name of Frank Gore. He has 49 career touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. -- Mike Wells

Jacksonville Jaguars
During camp, the Jaguars have worked several backs in goal-line and short-yardage situations, and that's something I expect to continue. The logical choice would be 231-pound Toby Gerhart, because he's the Jaguars' biggest back and tough inside runs have been where he has had the bulk of his success. ButDenard Robinson showed in camp and the preseason that he's a capable inside runner as well. However, the Jaguars have also used Gerhart in the backfield with Robinson and rookie T.J. Yeldon. Yeldon is 226 pounds and showed at Alabama that he can have success inside. If I had to pick a Jaguars goal-line back for my fantasy team, I'd take Gerhart, but my best advice would be to look elsewhere. -- Michael DiRocco

Tennessee Titans
They have more, better options than they have had in the past. In the second preseason game, Bishop Sankey showed the sort of explosiveness he too often lacks, but even at his best, he's not a goal-line type. As a bigger guy, David Cobb is better suited to get the tough yard in tighter space. Antonio Andrewsmay also get some carries there, and fullback Jalston Fowler has run behind defensive tackle Karl Klug, working as a fullback, on occasion. -- Paul Kuharsky

Denver Broncos
The Broncos had a clearly defined depth chart in the preseason among the running backs with C.J. Anderson at No. 1, Montee Ball No. 2 and Ronnie Hillman No. 3. Anderson is expected to get the most carries in an offense that will feature far more two-tight end and two-back snaps this season, both in the red zone and overall in the offense. It is worth noting the Broncos believe all three backs have a place in the offense and that in 20 previous seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Gary Kubiak's offense has had a running back get at least 55 percent of the carries in nine of those seasons. -- Jeff Legwold

Kansas City Chiefs
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</article>Running back Jamaal Charles is only about 200 pounds but he's better in goal-line and short-yardage situations than many people expect. Charles has good vision and the necessary patience to wait for holes to develop. Backup Knile Davis is much bigger at about 227 pounds and more powerful, but doesn't have Charles' vision or patience. -- Adam Teicher

Oakland Raiders
Latavius Murray. He is 6-3, 228 pounds and showed a good burst and push at the line of scrimmage in 2014. He will get the first chance to be the goal-line rusher. -- Bill Williamson

San Diego Chargers
The Chargers will use a committee approach, with Mike McCoy riding the hot hand on game days. Melvin Gordon and Danny Woodhead will get opportunities, but Branden Oliver has shown he has a nose for the end zone. He led San Diego with 586 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns a year ago and has looked even better during preseason play. -- Eric D. Williams

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2015

10 lists of 10 for the 2015 season

Matthew Berry, Fantasy

If there's one thing I've learned about the Internet, it's that people are unfailingly polite. Wait, that's not it. It's that they like lists. Pictures of animals, kids and Kardashians, sure ... but mostly, they like lists. Especially if they contain pictures and stolen content from somewhere else. Ha! Just kidding! Probably.
So, as we do every year, here are 10 lists ... of 10.

List 1: 10 additional facts I couldn't fit into "100 facts you need to know"

Shoutout to Kyle Soppe and the rest of the gang at ESPN Stats & Information for their help here.
1. Demaryius Thomas has 100 yards or a TD in 26 of his past 30 games (including playoffs). For the record, Antonio Brown is 20 of 30.
2. Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers are the only two quarterbacks who averaged more yards per pass attempt and had a higher touchdown percentage than ... wait for it ... Ryan Fitzpatrick.
3. Last season, Jeremy Maclin's Philadelphia Eagles averaged 29.6 points per game. Maclin's new team, the Kansas City Chiefs, averaged 22.1 points per game in 2014. But in the four games last season that the Eagles did not get to 23 points, Maclin averaged seven catches on 12 targets for 14.5 standard fantasy points.
4. Among the categories Andrew Luck led the NFL in last year was dropped passes by his receivers and he had eight dropped passes by running backs. Andre Johnson's career drop percentage (3.9 percent) is more than 1 percent lower than the Colts' team average during Luck's career. And Frank Gore has a total of one drop in the past two seasons.
5. Antonio Brown was tackled on the 1-yard line four times last season, twice as many as any other receiver or tight end. As a team, the Steelers were tackled on the 1-yard line seven times, the most of any team in the NFL. If you regress that to the league average (three times a year), those extra four touchdown passes forBen Roethlisberger would have made him the fourth-highest-scoring QB in fantasy.
6. Since LeGarrette Blount entered the league in 2010, the only running back to average more yards after contact per rush than Blount is ... Adrian Peterson.
7. Last season, the only tight ends with more 100-yard games than Delanie Walker? Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen.
8. Last season, there were only three players who had an aDOT (average depth of target, hat tip to Mike Clay) of more than 15.5 yards: Calvin Johnson, Maclin and ... Brian Quick. During the past two seasons, Nick Foles has thrown more deep touchdown passes (21 games played) than Rodgers and Peyton Manningcombined last season (32 games).
9. Over the past three years, in the 21 games where he was targeted at least nine times, Julio Jones has 2,463 yards and 15 touchdowns. Putting those numbers on a 16-game pace would yield 1,877 yards and 12 touchdowns. Those numbers would have made Jones the No. 1 WR in fantasy last season and would have been 36 points better than Demaryius Thomas.
10. In 2014, Cam Newton completed just 43.4 percent of his passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield, and 48 percent of those completions went to Kelvin Benjamin.

List 2: 10 players who keep winding up on my teams as I do drafts, mocks or for real

Read Love/Hate if you want my take on any of them.
1. Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers
2. A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
3. Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts
4. Andre Johnson, Indianapolis Colts
5. Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs
6. LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots
7. Charles Johnson, Minnesota Vikings
8. Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
9. Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns
10. Tom Brady, New England Patriots

List 3: 10 mid-to-late-round running backs to target if you blow off the position early (or use a draft strategy that people call "Zero RB") and need to grab a lot of depth in hopes one pops

These are in no particular order (check my ranks if you want that).
1. Matt Jones, Washington: Looks awesome, will play on third down, Washington wants to run.
2. Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints: Better hands than he gets credit for, he's a handcuff to both Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller (both of whom have had injury issues) on a team that also wants to run a lot.
3. Chris Ivory, New York Jets: Will be the starting running back on a decent offense and he's going in the ninth round in ESPN leagues.
4. Andre Williams, New York Giants: Could easily be the short-yardage back to start the season, and it's not as though Shane Vereen or Rashad Jenningsare iron men.
5. Ryan Mathews, Philadelphia Eagles: Even if DeMarco Murray stays healthy all season, Mathews will have value on that offense behind that line. I expect 12 touches a game, and behind that line? That offense? Definitely worth flex consideration. They're gonna crush folks.
6. Cameron Artis-Payne, Carolina Panthers: Has looked good this preseason and Jonathan Stewart is another player who has struggled to stay on the field.
7. Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers: Even if Melvin Gordon figures it out, Woodhead will be involved on third down and the Chargers are not scared to give him the ball near the goal line, either.
8. Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos: Having a monster preseason, was good when he had the job last season and behind a guy with a small track record on a great offense.
9. David Cobb, Tennessee Titans: Someone has to run it in Tennessee. You could do worse than betting against Bishop Sankey.
10. Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills: LeSean McCoy struggles with health as well and last season, McCoy got 23 carries inside an opponent's 10-yard line. He converted three of them. There's a chance Jackson is your goal-line back this year even if McCoy is healthy.

List 4: 10 best fantasy team names (that I can print!)

I asked my followers on Twitter andFacebook for their fantasy team names this year. Many suggestions this year around deflated balls, Jason Pierre-Paul's accident, the off-field issues of Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson, along with many uses for the names of NFL player Zach Ertz,Tyler Eifert, Isaiah Pead and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. Among the most common names submitted were Turn Down For Watt and Teenage Mutant Ninja Bortles. Here are 10 that I thought were funny or at least I hadn't seen a billion times:
1. Eat, Drink and D. Murray (from @mattdiehl on Twitter)
2. Amari 2600 (@notbadmike)
3. Bunches of Funchess (@dfeasline)
4. Ghostface Spillah (@Shmata_Flocka)
5. Just Gurley Things (@bentoncampbell)
6. It's Always Murray in Philadelphia (@jononewton)
7. Guardians of the Gostkowski (@chadderfield)
8. Flowers for Agholor (Peter Conti on Facebook)
9. Dezervoir Dogs (@cwcapps22)
10. Jarvis, Tan, Landry (Ted Snellen on Facebook)

List 5: 10 downward trends

1. Mark Ingram's yards per carry decreased with each passing month last season.
2. In 2011, Matt Forte had 12 carries that went for 20 yards or more. In 2012, he had six 20-yard runs and bounced back with nine in 2013. But in 2014, he had just one 20-yard rush all season in 266 carries. If Forte's big plays are drying up and his passing game involvement is being cut back, you're hoping for a lot of short-yardage scores if you draft him.
3. Sammy Watkins recorded 53.4 percent of his receiving yards in four big games.
4. Before getting hurt last season, no player in the NFL had more drops thanVictor Cruz.
5. During the past two seasons, Philip Rivers has the same number of games (14) with zero or one TD pass as Andy Dalton.
6. Last season, nine of Mike Wallace's 10 touchdowns came in the red zone. No team attempted fewer passes in the red zone in 2014 than the Minnesota Vikings. And they just got Adrian Peterson back. Wallace had 932 receiving yards in 2013, he had 860 last season ... and he played all 16 games in both seasons. He hasn't had 1,000 yards since 2012, so with Wallace you are really counting on his touchdown rate.
7. Larry Fitzgerald's targets have decreased each of the past four seasons. And despite the Cardinals throwing deep more than any team the past two seasons, Fitz's average target depth has gone down for three straight seasons.
8. Since 2001, only four wide receivers have caught at least eight touchdowns in a season despite fewer than 40 receptions. Last season, it happened twice, asMartavis Bryant and Terrance Williams turned the trick. The other two -- Chris Henry (2006 Bengals) and Reggie Williams (2007 Jaguars) -- each caught three or fewer touchdowns the following season.
9. In Kyle Shanahan's past six seasons as an offensive coordinator, the No. 2 wideout in his offense has never ranked higher than 38th in fantasy points among wide receivers.
10. Matthew Stafford has thrown 169 more passes than Dalton the past two seasons ... and one fewer touchdown.

List 6: 10 rookies I would draft, in order, in dynasty leagues

1. Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
2. Todd Gurley, St. Louis Rams
3. Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions
4. Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers
5. DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
6. Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles
7. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans
10. Matt Jones, Washington

List 7: 10 more fantasy team names

1. For you Howard Stern fans ... "My Gronk is Gone!" (@siriusjay on Twitter)
2. Dez Nuts (many)
3. Yippee Ki Yay Justin Tucker (Chris Black on Facebook)
4. Abdullah Matata (Perry Streby on Facebook)
5. You Snooze You Sanu (Chun Lam on Facebook)
6. SUH-icide Squad (Gerardo Gonzalez on Facebook)
7. 3 Sheets to the Win (Brad Crouch on Facebook)
8. Commissioner Gordon (Gregory S. Gonzalez on Facebook)
9. Use the Forsett, Luke (@jonathangoad)
10. The Curse of Stephania Bell (Wife of Billy Rozay on Facebook)

List 8: 10 players I don't have on any teams

These are guys who I have avoided so far, that when it's around the time to take them, I always find a player I like better.
1. LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills
2. Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills
3. Mike Wallace, Minnesota Vikings
4. DeSean Jackson, Washington
5. Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys
7. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
8. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
9. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals
10. Golden Tate, Detroit Lions

List 9: 10 deep flyers

These are not guys who will contribute right away. These are guys to stash at the end of your bench as they have talent, they just need opportunity.
1. Zach Zenner, Lions: Not convinced they think Abdullah can handle a workhorse role and Joique Bell is still banged up.
2. Brandon Coleman, Saints: Like Marques Colston, just, you know, a lot younger.
3. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: Targets ... they can't all go to Jimmy Graham.
4. James White, Patriots: Keep watching the Patriots. Either White or Dion Lewis will get the "Shane Vereen" role. Right now I have White in the lead, but obviously it can change.
5. Jeff Janis, Packers: Best deep threat the Packers have now.
6. Cole Beasley, Cowboys: Especially in deep PPR leagues.
7. Leonard Hankerson, Falcons: Gonna play the slot in Atlanta and you know (or should) that I think Roddy White, sadly, is basically done.
8. Michael Crabtree, Raiders: He's the No. 2 wideout in Oakland and they are going to throw. Maybe not as deep a name as some others, but he's basically going undrafted.
9. Ryan Grant, Washington: If anything happens to DeSean Jackson orPierre Garcon, Grant has a ton of talent.
10. Richard Rodgers, Packers: With Jordy Nelson gone, Rodgers will have to find more targets to help.

List 10: One last list of team names

1. Scoring in Funchess (@seanmccarthy48)
2. Naked and a trade (@therealadam_H)
3. Jamaal About That Bass (@MrMikeyW)
4. Jamaal That and Then Some (@EarthMantleRap)
5. Pour Some Le'Veon Me (@rise_b_axelrod)
6. Can't Randle the Truth! (@swaterbu)
7. Too Many Cooks (many)
8. Let the Wookiee Win (@sgtkabukiDan)
9. Straight Outta Gronkton (multiple)
10. Fear the Fro (@matthewberryTMR)

Bonus List: 10 movies I can't wait to play this fall

Did I say play? Yes, I did. As you may know, I play Fantasy Movie League, which is exactly what it sounds like. Every week you program your fantasy movie theater with real-life movies while staying under the salary cap (it's basically DFS style). However much the movies make at the box office in real life is how much your fantasy movie theater makes. A new season starts Sept. 4 and it's free to play. If you'd like to play me, go to FantasyMovieLeague.com and look for the group "TMR vs The World." The password is: TMR. Or just click this link. Here are the movies coming soon that I'm most looking forward to:
1. "Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials" (Sept. 18): I saw the first one. Enjoyed it. Kids loved it. Based on a series of young-adult novels.
2. "Everest" (Sept. 18): Based on a true story, this is a big ol' disaster movie on a mountain in a storm.
3. "The Martian" (Oct. 2): It's "Cast Away" on a planet. Trailer looks awesome.
4. "Steve Jobs" (Oct. 9): Aaron Sorkin about Steve Jobs? In.
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</article>5. "Spectre" (Nov. 6): My Dad took me to James Bond movies as a kid. Love 'em. Haven't missed one in 35 years.
6. "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2" (Nov. 20): Oh, Katniss ...
7. "The Good Dinosaur" (Nov. 25): It's Pixar. I have kids and I'm a company man. Pick a reason.
8. "Sisters" (Dec. 18): Tina Fey and Amy Poehler can do no wrong.
9. "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" (Dec. 18): If someone starts lining up now, is that weird? Asking for a friend.
10. "The Hateful Eight" (Dec. 25): You either dig Quentin or you do not. I do.

HacheMan · Sep 8, 2015

[h=1]Key Week 1 matchup numbers to help set your lineups[/h]KC Joyner, NFL Insider

The Big Number series from this past summer reviewed the metrics that are real statistical difference-makers in fantasy football.
That series has led to the genesis of a Big Number series that I will be writing during the 2015 season. The Big Number articles will highlight a wide variety of metrics that can be used to help identify good or bad starts to make each week, as well as impactful waiver picks and trades to make. It also will incorporate elements of the former Fantasy Foresight series and detail matchup strengths and weaknesses during the forthcoming weeks.
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[h=2]Big Number: 284[/h]This is the number of fantasy points the Dallas Cowboys defense allowed opposing wide receivers to score last season, a mark that ranked as the seventh fewest in the league in this category.
The Cowboys did not reach this level due to superb coverage, as Dallas placed tied for 16th in vertical yards per attempt (10.7 per play on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 19th in stretch vertical yards per attempt (12.9 yards per play on passes that traveled 20 or more yards downfield). What allowed them to reach that mark was an offense that protected this platoon to the extent that Dallas faced only 978 offensive snaps last season, a total that ranked fifth lowest in the NFL.

That will not be the case this season, as a decline in the Cowboys' rushing game, a very tough schedule and the loss of starting cornerback Orlando Scandrick will combine to force the Cowboys into a lot of shootout games this year.
The Week 1 contest against the New York Giants is likely to be the first of those high-scoring games. That makes Eli Manning, a passer with top-five fantasy QB potential, a very viable, if sneaky, starting option. It also makes any of the Giants' running backs potential sleeper starts, with pass-catching specialist Shane Vereen topping that list.

[h=2]Big Number: 4.7[/h]Niners wide receiver Torrey Smith racked up eight games with double-digit fantasy points in 2014. That upside potential will make him one of the question mark starting picks for the 87.3 percent of ESPN fantasy owners who have Smith on their roster.
The 4.7 stretch vertical YPA allowed by Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes last season (tied for ninth fewest among cornerbacks) should serve as a tiebreaker for those owners. Opposing teams targeted Rhodes with 20 stretch vertical passes last season, and he allowed only four completions for 93 total yards on those throws. Even more importantly, Rhodes gave up zero touchdowns on aerials at that route depth level. Rhodes was also quite adept against vertical passes, allowing 7.0 YPA on those targets (ranked 14th) and only one touchdown.
Smith scored a mere 3.6 fantasy points per game last year on short passes (ranked 31st), so Rhodes' ability to take away the long ball should place Smith outside of the WR or flex start category this week.

[h=2]Big Number: Two or more[/h]The aforementioned Fantasy Foresight series used a color grading system to rate schedule strength. In this system, a green rating indicates a highly favorable matchup (and thus a strong start), a yellow rating signifies a solid defensive matchup and a red rating equals an unfavorable matchup that should be avoided.
The Big Number series will continue to utilize that system as a method for suggesting quality waiver wire and trade options.
For this week, those waiver and trade options consist of players who have at least two green-rated starts during Weeks 1-4 of the 2015 season.
[h=2]Waiver wire options[/h]

Larry Donnell, TE, New York Giants (owned in 57.9 percent of ESPN leagues)
Donnell looks to be the best option for those aiming to pick up a Giants player to take advantage of the highly favorable Dallas matchup mentioned earlier, but it's not as if he would be a single-start option. Donnell also could have double-digit point potential in a Week 3 matchup against a banged-up Washington secondary that will try to cover him with a retread strong safety (Duke Ihenacho).

Brian Quick, WR, St. Louis Rams (owned in 35.3 percent of ESPN leagues)
Last year, Quick posted 48 points in his first four starts. This was not a case of one or two games spiking the total, as he tallied at least seven points in each contest.
Quick was lost to an injury shortly after that, and thus has been largely overlooked in drafts, despite St. Louis upgrading its quarterback by trading forNick Foles. This combination is perfectly capable of racking up a double-digit point average in the Week 2 and 3 matchups against the mediocre Washington and Pi6ttsburgh secondaries.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (owned in 39.8 percent of ESPN leagues)
Baldwin ranked third among wide receivers last season in yards per attempt when facing a qualified cornerback (12.4 YPA against cornerbacks with 32 or more targets). This means he is capable of beating any cornerback competition level, and thus could see a lot of passes against Janoris Jenkins and Sam Shields, the green-rated cornerbacks most likely to cover him over the next two weeks.

Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans Saints (owned in 13.6 percent of ESPN leagues)
Coleman has been moving up the Saints' depth chart and thus has been showing up on a number of deep sleeper lists. Some subpar preseason performances have kept his fantasy ownership rate from moving upward, but he should still be owned in a lot more than 13.6 percent of ESPN leagues.

[h=2]Potential trade targets[/h]

Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets
With Stevan Ridley starting the season on the reserve/PUP list, Ivory now is on track to gain the lion's share of the Jets' carries.
That could make him a very good trade target for the Week 1 and 2 matchups against the Cleveland and Indianapolis run defenses that ranked 13th and tied for eighth, respectively, in most fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs last season.
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</article>For those fantasy owners thinking even more long term, it should be noted that the Jets currently have no red-rated run defense matchups on the rest of their schedule. New York also has green-rated run defense matchups in Weeks 13-15. That's a long way out, but if Ivory is still the workhorse by then, he could be a very good flex start during the playoffs.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There may not be a team with a more favorable run defense schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers currently have seven green-rated run defense matchups on their 2015 schedule, including two to start the season, and five in the Week 9-16 span.
Martin is coming off a season where his 9.0-yard mark ranked tied for 10th among running backs in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that gauges how productive a ball carrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt). Add that type of upside to the Buccaneers' favorable schedule, and it could be worth it to trade for Martin, or even trade or stash backup running back Charles Sims in the event Martin gets hurt.

HacheMan · Sep 8, 2015

[h=1]'Fantasy 32': How to win your league[/h]
Mike Clay, Fantasy Football
ESPN INSIDER

Many argue that information and statistics generated from preseason games are useless, and in the past, that was probably true. But now that we have access to in-depth player participation data and never-before-available statistical categories, that is no longer the case. We can actually learn a lot about a team's offensive game plan before Week 1 of the regular season.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
I took a long, comprehensive look at the participation logs and advanced metrics of each team during the 2015 preseason. My focus was on first-team offenses, but I was sure to examine each and every fantasy-relevant player who saw the field over the past month.
Below are 32 notes covering each of the league's 32 teams. We call this Fantasy 32, and we'll have a version for you each week of the NFL season to help you set your lineup. Use these preseason tidbits to dominate your draft or grab that sleeper off waivers before Thursday's opener.
1. Darren Fells played 44 of a possible 57 snaps with Carson Palmer and theArizona Cardinals' first-team offense during the preseason. Clearly the team's No. 1 tight end, Fells is a name you should know, but don't expect much fantasy impact in a passing game that will rely heavily on its Big 3 wide receivers andAndre Ellington. Troy Niklas, Jermaine Gresham. Deep-sleeper Ifeanyi Momahwill also push for snaps at tight end.
2. Jacob Tamme was on the field for all but three of Matt Ryan's 35 snaps during the preseason. That's compared to zero for incumbent starter Levine Toilolo. Toilolo was not a fantasy factor in 2014, but note that only four tight ends played more snaps. Tamme has a history of TE1 production -- albeit with Peyton Manning under center -- but the veteran is a sleeper at a position void of rock solid back-end TE1 producers.

3. Crockett Gillmore and Kamar Aiken are keeping seats warm, but both figure to flirt with the fantasy radar out of the gate. Gillmore was on the field for 54 of Joe Flacco's 59 first-team snaps during the preseason. He's clearly the Baltimore Raven's No. 1 tight end, at least until second-round pick Maxx Williams is ready to go or Dennis Pitta returns from a hip injury. Aiken, meanwhile, was on the field for 47 of Flacco's preseason snaps. The journeyman will operate as a starter opposite Steve Smith Sr. to start the season, but it's only a matter of time until first-round pick Breshad Perriman takes over.
4. The Buffalo Bills had a third wide receiver on the field on 34 percent of their pass plays during the preseason. Not only was that lowest in the league, it's less than half of the 2014 leaguewide average. This shouldn't be a massive surprise considering the presence of run-heavy head coach Rex Ryan and offensive coordinator Greg Roman. This bodes poorly for Percy Harvin and Robert Woods, who figure to rotate as Buffalo's No. 2 wideout. Both should be on the waiver wire.
5. Of the 30 first-team snaps played by Mike Tolbert during the preseason, only nine (or 30 percent) came at tailback. He lined up there on 65 percent of his snaps in 2014. Why is this important? It makes it less likely that Tolbert, theCarolina Panthers' primary fullback, will steal goal line and passing-down snaps from projected workhorse Jonathan Stewart. I still worry about Stewart's touchdown upside in what is a below-average offense and with Cam Newtonsniping goal line carries. That will limit him to RB2 numbers. Tolbert focusing on fullback is also good news for fifth-round pick and Stewart handcuff Cameron Artis-Payne, who was the second man up at tailback in Carolina's second and third preseason games before starting the fourth.
6. Matt Forte turns 30 this year and has paced tailbacks in snaps each of the past two seasons. That said, it's important to understand the dynamic behind him on the depth chart. A terrific pass-blocker, Jacquizz Rodgers was the second man up during the preseason and projects as a change-of-pace option. Fifth-round pick Jeremy Langford was the second or third man up in each of the Chicago Bears' preseason games and would be the hot add in the event of a Forte injury. He's a worthwhile stash, especially if you own Forte.
7. After missing all but eight snaps last season due to elbow and shoulder injuries, Tyler Eifert is back on the fantasy radar. The 2013 first-round pick was on the field for all 50 of Andy Dalton's snaps during the preseason. There should be concern about Eifert's fantasy ceiling in a run-heavy Cincinnati Bengalsoffense that wants to get the ball to Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, A.J. Green,Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and even Rex Burkhead. Still, tight end is a bit shaky after the top six, putting Eifert squarely in the TE1 discussion.
8. In the Cleveland Browns' "dress rehearsal" against Tampa Bay, there was a clear effort to rotate wide receivers in with the first team. Dwayne Bowe worked 15 of the first 25 snaps with Josh McCown. Andrew Hawkins started opposite Bowe and was in on 16 of those plays. Brian Hartline was third up and worked 11 snaps. Taylor Gabriel chipped in on 10 plays and Travis Benjamin handled four. Bowe, Hartline and Hawkins (slot) figure to start the season as the team's top three receivers, but Gabriel and Benjamin are going to force their way into certain packages. This is a situation to avoid.

9. Tony Romo played 24 snaps over two preseason games. Joseph Randlewas on the field for 12 of those plays.Darren McFadden handled nine andLance Dunbar three. With Christine Michael now in the mix, the Dallas Cowboys' backfield is likely to be tough to predict out of the gate. Of course, Michael is the most-talented player in this group and well worth a flier in the later stages of your draft.
10. Owen Daniels is 32 years old and hasn't played a full 16-game season since 2008, but the full-time tight end in a Peyton Manning offense cannot be ignored. Daniels was on the field for 57 (or 90 percent) of Manning's 63 first-team snaps during the preseason, solidifying himself as a fixture in the Denver Broncos' passing game and thus as a borderline TE1.
11. Eric Ebron appeared in two preseason games and was on the field for 16 of Matt Stafford's 21 snaps. With only Corey Fuller, Lance Moore and TJ Jones at wide receiver behind Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, the Detroit Lions will give their 2014 first-round pick every opportunity to emerge as Stafford's No. 3 target. Ebron's breakout potential has him in the TE1 conversation. At the very least, he's worth a bench spot.

12. Having paced the league in the category last season, it should be no surprise that the Green Bay Packers had their third wide receiver on the field for 85 percent of their pass plays during the preseason. (Only the Eagles had a higher mark.) Randall Cobb is locked in as the team's slot receiver and Davante Adamswill be an every-down player on the outside. Returning after spending 2014 with the Raiders and the 2015 offseason with the Giants, James Jones is the favorite for early-season No. 3 duties, but keep in mind that he was cut by the Raiders and lost out to the likes of Preston Parker and Geremy Davis for a roster spot in New York. Third-rounder Ty Montgomery remains a player worth stashing in deeper leagues and would be on the WR3 radar in the event of an injury to Cobb or Adams.
13. Cecil Shorts III has been a hot late-round flier over the past month, but it doesn't make a ton of sense. As if the Houston Texans' weak quarterback situation and run-heavy philosophy weren't enough, Shorts isn't even a top-two receiver on his own team. A quick examination of first-team usage during the preseason shows Nate Washington with 24 snaps. Shorts only entered the game in three-wide packages and played 18 snaps. Washington may end up with fewer targets than Shorts, but he'll be on the field enough to keep Shorts out of the flex discussion. Aim higher with your late-round flier.
14. Last season, the Indianapolis Colts had a second tight end on the field on 39 percent of their pass plays, which was second-highest in the league (Patriots were first at 47 percent). During the 2015 preseason, the Colts sat sixth in the category at 30 percent. It's a slight dip but still suggests they'll continue relying heavily on Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. That's bad news for Phillip Dorsettand Donte Moncrief, who will struggle to see the field. Moncrief played 44 first-team snaps during the preseason and, at least for now, seems to have a leg up on Dorsett (11) for the No. 3 gig. Both are worthwhile "handcuffs" at the position.
15. The Jacksonville Jaguars had their second tight end on the field for 38 percent of their pass plays during the preseason, which was the league's third-highest mark. That's despite the fact that newcomer Julius Thomas missed all but two snaps due to a broken finger. It's clear the Jaguars would like to roll with a base "12" offensive personnel package -- one running back, two wide receivers, two tight ends -- which generally suggests a team will call a run-heavy game. This is good news for T.J. Yeldon, who played 16 of the team's first 24 snaps in his preseason debut and was a healthy scratch in the finale -- a great sign for his chances of playing a significant role in Week 1.
16. Alex Smith's average depth of throw was 7 yards on 45 aimed throws during the preseason. That's still on the low end of the league, but above his 6 and 6.9 marks over the past two regular seasons, which were both lowest in the league. This should serve as a reminder that, even if Smith throws it downfield more often, he's still the most conservative passer in the league. It doesn't bode well for his fantasy upside.
17. After missing a massive chunk of the offseason due to a foot injury, DeVante Parker handled nine snaps in the Miami Dolphins' preseason finale. Although Parker figures to start slow, it's only a matter of time before he and Jarvis Landry form a strong one-two punch at the position. Parker shouldn't have much trouble emerging with inferior alternatives Greg Jennings, Kenny Stillsand Rishard Matthews ahead of him on the depth chart. In the team's third preseason game, Stills (nine first-team snaps) was surprisingly buried behind Landry (30), Matthews (23) and Jennings (22). Stash Parker on your bench.
18. Appearing in four preseason games for the Minnesota Vikings, Teddy Bridgewater completed 29 of 35 passes for 295 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. His 82.9 completion percentage was best in the league among quarterbacks who attempted more than 15 passes. It's important to not overreact to efficiency during the preseason, but after Bridgewater's outstanding finish to the 2014 regular season, his preseason success is hard to ignore. He's a rare QB2 worth targeting.
19. Dion Lewis got the "starter treatment" in the New England Patriots' preseason finale, suggesting he will get the first shot to replace Shane Vereen as the team's passing-down back. In the team's prior preseason game, Lewis worked with projected early-down back LeGarrette Blount, which is a combo we should expect to see once Blount returns from his suspension in Week 2. Blount is on the RB2 radar in non-PPR, while Lewis is now in the flex conversation in PPR.
20. Josh Hill was a hot name during the summer, but preseason action made it clear that veteran Benjamin Watson is the New Orleans Saints' starting tight end and Hill will be a role player. Watson was on the field for 26 (or 81 percent) of 32 possible snaps with Drew Brees. Hill handled nine (or 32 percent) of those snaps. Watson is 34 years old, but keep in mind that he did play 34 snaps per game last year and is likely to be on the field near the goal line. He's a worthwhile flier in leagues that start two tight ends.
21. During first-team preseason action for the New York Giants, Rashad Jennings played 31 snaps. Andre Williams worked 21, while newcomer Shane Vereen handled 28, including primary third-down work. The trio figures to split up backfield duties this season, with Jennings and Williams primarily handling early downs and goal line work, while Vereen works passing downs. Jennings is unlikely to live up to his sixth-round ADP, leaving Vereen (8th) and Williams (13th) as the better investments.
22. Powered by reports that he will be significantly more involved as a receiver this season for the New York Giants, Chris Ivory's ADP rose rapidly over the past month. Don't buy it. In each of his preseason appearances, Ivory worked primarily on early downs with Bilal Powell entering the game on third down. A two-down role will allow Ivory a handful of check-down targets, but he's a poor bet to eclipse 30 receptions. Ivory is a borderline top-25 fantasy running back and his ceiling is that of mid-pack RB2.
23. Latavius Murray certainly got the feature back treatment during the preseason. Prior to taking a seat for the night during three appearances, he worked 45 (or 75 percent) of 60 possible first-team snaps. He was also rested in the team's preseason finale. With Trent Richardson long gone and only passing-down specialist Roy Helu in the mix for touches, Murray is primed for a breakout season. The Oakland Raiders aren't going to score a ton of points, but they will lean heavily on their running game, and Murray has looked the part since joining the rotation late last season. He's an intriguing RB2 target.
24. The Philadelphia Eagles had a third wide receiver on the field for an NFL-high 95 percent of their pass plays during the preseason. Same as in 2014, that number figures to drop during the regular season, especially once Zach Ertzreturns to the lineup. The Eagles will utilize a ton of offensive combinations, but one thing is for sure: Jordan Matthews is the slot man. The second-year receiver ran 33 routes during the preseason and all but one came from the slot. Riley Cooper and Nelson Agholor will be the team's primary outside receivers, but note that Darren Sproles lined up at wide receiver on nine of his 15 preseason pass routes.
25. Ben Roethlisberger dropped back to pass 26 times during the preseason.Antonio Brown was on the field for each of those plays. Markus Wheatonhandled 24 of the snaps and Martavis Bryant worked 22. Aware of Bryant's impending four-game suspension, the Pittsburgh Steelers have relied heavily on two-tight end packages during the preseason, but they finished sixth in three-wide receiver sets when passing last season. Once Bryant returns, it won't matter if he's the team's third wide receiver, as he'll be on the field on most passing downs. Continue to view Bryant as a WR3 and it will pay dividends Week 5 and beyond.

26. In the two games both played during the preseason, Melvin Gordon worked 28 first-team snaps and Danny Woodhead handled 25. Gordon is a sure bet to replace Ryan Mathews as the San Diego Chargers' early-down and primary goal-line back, but it's very clear that Woodhead will be featured in the passing game. The veteran back caught 76 passes in 2013 before a broken leg cut his 2014 season short. Gordon should be viewed as a RB2 in all formats, but he's a better target in non-PPR. It's not crazy to suggest Woodhead will flirt with RB2 production in PPR.
27. Without much depth at the position, the San Francisco 49ers had a second tight end on the field on an NFL-high 55 percent of their pass plays during the preseason. Those considering Quinton Patton or Bruce Ellington in the later rounds should take note. Also the league's run-heaviest team during the preseason, it's clear that the passing game will not be the priority in 2015. Lead back Carlos Hyde was terrific on a small sample of touches as a rookie and didn't disappoint in limited preseason action. Primed for a significant early-down role in his second season, Hyde is a quality RB2 target. He won't catch more than two dozen passes, but he's a candidate for 1,000 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
28. Tyler Lockett was on the field for 40 (or 53 percent) of Russell Wilson's 75 snaps during the preseason. In the Seattle Seahawks' third preseason game, all 18 of Lockett's snaps came with the first team. That's generally a good sign that he will remain with the starters during the regular season. Chris Matthews will surely push Lockett for snaps, but the rookie is the team's top talent at the position and a good bet to emerge into a significant role in the second half of the season. Lockett is well worth a later-round flier.
29. Nick Foles dropped back to pass 29 times during the preseason. Kenny Brittwas on the field for 26 of those plays while Brian Quick was limited to five of the snaps as he recovered from shoulder surgery. That allowed Tavon Austin to work 23 snaps, compared to only 13 for Stedman Bailey and three for Chris Givens. Britt and Quick will be the clear one-two punch here. Although it's promising to see Austin -- the No. 8 overall pick in the 2013 draft -- working ahead of Bailey, he's unlikely to make a significant impact on the St. Louis Rams, who will rely heavily on its defense and running game. He's not worth a roster spot.
30. Preseason usage has left little doubt that Doug Martin is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' clear feature back. Prior to exiting his three appearances, Martin was on the field for 44 (or 83 percent) of 53 possible snaps. Martin also sat out the team's preseason finale, while No. 2 back Charles Sims played 16 snaps. Although this certainly helps solidify Martin as a borderline RB2, scoring chances and second-half rushing opportunities are going to be hard to find on a team that figures to struggle this season. Martin is unlikely to live up to his recent fourth-round ADP.
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</article>31. Marcus Mariota dropped back to pass 37 times during the preseason. Slot man Kendall Wright was on the field for 31 of those plays, Hakeem Nicks worked 28 and Harry Douglas handled 26. Nicks was somewhat surprisingly released, opening the door for either Justin Hunter or rookie Dorial Green-Beckham to emerge as the team's No. 3 wideout. Hunter was on the field for six of Mariota's snaps during the preseason and Green-Beckham saw only one. Considering that Wright is glued to the slot, Douglas is a replacement-level talent and Hunter has been one of the league's least-efficient players over the past two years, the door is wide open for Green-Beckham to make a significant impact as a rookie. Target the 6-foot-5, 237-pound 22-year-old in the later rounds.
32. Looking for a tight end with TE1 upside in the later rounds? Jordan Reed's health issues have him well off the fantasy radar, but he played 36 of 43 first-team snaps during the team's dress rehearsal. With Niles Paul out for the season, Reed has no competition for the team's starting gig. Reed averaged a hefty 18 percent of the Washington Redskins' targets when active last season and figures to flirt with TE1 numbers in 2015.