Fantasy Football News 2011/2012

HacheMan · Oct 12, 2011

New Texan Derrick Mason still not a factor

Eric Karabell

There's a trade to report!

How many times have you seen that line in an email or headline and immediately dropped all work or personal stuff to see what the trade is? Did the first-place team get stronger? Did something lopsided occur? Well, in this case, the trade to report is a real-life deal, a rarity in the NFL. But as in most cases, my initial thoughts when hearing that the New York Jets had sent geriatric wide receiver Derrick Mason to the Houston Texans for a late, conditional draft pick had little to do with the player sent packing. Two immediate thoughts: (1) Jacoby Jones really was that bad on Sunday; and (2) perhaps stud Andre Johnson is going to be out longer than we think.

For years, Mason was a point-per-reception star in fantasy leagues, and he was useful in standard formats as well, but those days are gone. Last season, Mason was slowed by a sports hernia and needed surgery, and the Jets figured he'd be a decent No. 3 wide receiver after Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress. Mason was indeed the team's third wide receiver, but he was tied for fourth in receptions, and targeted 21 times, or four per game. In other words, he didn't really matter much.
In Houston, a team that wants to run the football and can actually do it with a healthy, vibrant offensive line and arguably the best running back in the game, there are still plenty of Matt Schaub passes sent downfield. But Mason is 37, so don't get too excited. He is reliable, certainly more than Jones, but he's a possession guy only. I gave him a token wide receiver rank of No. 50 this week, as the poor fellow must face his former Baltimore Ravens mates on the road for the second time in three weeks, but again, Mason really isn't the story here.
The Houston Chronicle is already reporting that Johnson will miss this week's game, and his hamstring injury could be serious enough to keep him out of future games as well. There's Tennessee in Week 7, appealing home games with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns after that, and soon after, the Texans have their bye (Week 11). I'm not saying to trade Johnson in fantasy for whatever you can get, but if he's out this week and likely next week, what are we looking at here, four or five games before the fantasy playoffs? That has to be a consideration in your team preparation for the long term, though the December schedule is hardly scary for the Texans (Bengals, Panthers, Colts, Titans). Then again, who knows if Johnson will be 100 percent even when he does return?
Jones isn't 100 percent, either. He's dealing with a sore knee, which probably played a role in this minor trade. I can't recall ever seeing a wide receiver catch only 9 percent of his targets in a given week (1 of 11!), and surely Schaub wasn't at fault on all of them. Jones didn't have any official drops in Week 5, but he has been erratic since his mini-breakout in 2009. He averaged 16.2 yards per catch that season; last season he caught nearly twice as many passes and averaged only 11 yards per catch, scoring half as many touchdowns as the prior year. Texans coach Gary Kubiak told reporters in his Monday press conference that "[Jones] has got to step up. He played a lot of plays yesterday, 70-plus plays for him and Kevin [Walter]." Walter produced 81 yards and a touchdown in the loss to the Oakland Raiders. Most of the heavy lifting receiving-wise was done by Walter, tight ends Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen and running back Arian Foster. That was it. Mason isn't likely to change all that, but for the next two weeks, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he pushes past Jones, who I was always skeptical about recommending when Johnson got hurt, and helps fantasy owners with five or six receptions for 50 or 60 yards. Jones should have been doing that.

HacheMan · Oct 12, 2011

Mark Ingram not meeting expectations

By Ken Daube
Special to ESPN.com

One of the biggest things fantasy owners must face each season is the ability to change their opinion on a player.

Those owners who appropriately change their opinions on players' values in a timely fashion usually walk away with some sort of hardware after the season. With that in mind, I present a player for whom I believe a change in valuation is desperately necessary: Mark Ingram.
When Ingram was drafted by the New Orleans Saints in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft, many fantasy footballers reveled in the theory that the Saints selected him to be their primary rushing weapon and almost definite goal-line back for their high-powered attack. In fantasy drafts, those expectations helped Ingram become the 68th player selected, on average, in ESPN standard leagues, and, based on his current 100 percent ownership rate, it looks as if the preseason hype and expectations are adversely influencing fantasy owners at this point.

Through five games this season, Ingram has amassed just 233 total yards. He has just three runs of 10 yards or longer. The supposed goal-line beast has converted just one of his 10 carries inside his opponent's 10-yard line into a score. To put those numbers into perspective: Of the top 25 running backs in terms of carries this season, Ingram is 24th in terms of percentage of rushes that have gone for 10 or more yards (4.8 percent). Although conventional wisdom might suggest that Ingram's low number of rushes for 10-plus yards likely is caused by the high number of short-yardage situations he is used in, the numbers don't entirely bear that out. Fifteen of Ingram's 62 carries have come in 2-yards-or-less-to-go situations, and, if you were to discount those carries, Ingram would have just two carries that went for 10 yards or more in 47 carries, which would reduce his big-play success to just 4.3 percent.
So if Ingram isn't going to be a yardage monster, he needs to be a goal-line specialist to be starter-worthy in fantasy. Once again, Ingram has converted just one carry inside the opponent's 10-yard line into six points for the Saints. Of the players with at least 10 carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line, none has a lower touchdown success ratio than Ingram's 10 percent. If you want some perspective on just how futile Ingram has been in this category, consider this: The other six players with at least 10 such carries combine to average a 30.5 percent touchdown success rate on those carries.

On target

Receiving yardage is variable because so much of it is dependent on where the quarterback elects to throw the ball. The variations in the number of times a player is targeted by his quarterback may greatly alter a player's value. It's important to look at the underlying target metric on a weekly basis to determine which stud performances were flukes and which dud performances can be written off to a bad day.
With that in mind, the table below not only lists players who are averaging at least seven targets a game but also provides the standard deviation of the game numbers. Players with a low deviation have a similar number of targets each game, and players with larger deviations have larger swings in the number of targets seen on a game-to-game basis.

Season Leaders, Targets Per Game

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Player </TH><TH>Total Targets </TH><TH>Avg. (past 4 weeks) </TH><TH>Std. Dev. (past 4 weeks) </TH></TR><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Wes Welker, NE </TD><TD>65 </TD><TD>13.3 </TD><TD>5.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jason Witten, Dal </TD><TD>42 </TD><TD>11.0 </TD><TD>2.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jeremy Maclin, Phi </TD><TD>44 </TD><TD>10.3 </TD><TD>3.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jimmy Graham, NO </TD><TD>48 </TD><TD>10.3 </TD><TD>3.3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Roddy White, Atl </TD><TD>54 </TD><TD>10.3 </TD><TD>5.4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>A.J. Green, Cin </TD><TD>41 </TD><TD>9.3 </TD><TD>3.8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Calvin Johnson, Det </TD><TD>47 </TD><TD>9.3 </TD><TD>3.3 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mike Thomas, Jac </TD><TD>48 </TD><TD>9.3 </TD><TD>2.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Steve Smith, Car </TD><TD>48 </TD><TD>9.3 </TD><TD>2.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Ed Dickson, Bal </TD><TD>32 </TD><TD>9.0 </TD><TD>3.0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Eric Decker, Den </TD><TD>42 </TD><TD>9.0 </TD><TD>2.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Julio Jones, Atl </TD><TD>42 </TD><TD>9.0 </TD><TD>5.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Larry Fitzgerald, Ari </TD><TD>43 </TD><TD>9.0 </TD><TD>1.4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Reggie Wayne, Ind </TD><TD>47 </TD><TD>9.0 </TD><TD>2.7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Santana Moss, Was </TD><TD>35 </TD><TD>9.0 </TD><TD>1.0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Steve Johnson, Buf </TD><TD>41 </TD><TD>8.8 </TD><TD>4.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Andre Johnson, Hou </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>8.7 </TD><TD>3.5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brandon Marshall, Mia </TD><TD>39 </TD><TD>8.7 </TD><TD>2.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Aaron Hernandez, NE </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>8.5 </TD><TD>0.7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Dwayne Bowe, KC </TD><TD>42 </TD><TD>8.5 </TD><TD>2.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Early Doucet, Ari </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>8.5 </TD><TD>5.0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Hakeem Nicks, NYG </TD><TD>45 </TD><TD>8.5 </TD><TD>3.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Matt Forte, Chi </TD><TD>40 </TD><TD>8.5 </TD><TD>3.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Tony Gonzalez, Atl </TD><TD>41 </TD><TD>8.5 </TD><TD>0.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Darren Sproles, NO </TD><TD>42 </TD><TD>8.3 </TD><TD>1.5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Vincent Jackson, SD </TD><TD>36 </TD><TD>8.3 </TD><TD>4.8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Nate Washington, Ten </TD><TD>39 </TD><TD>8.0 </TD><TD>2.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Owen Daniels, Hou </TD><TD>34 </TD><TD>8.0 </TD><TD>2.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Pierre Garcon, Ind </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>7.8 </TD><TD>2.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Anquan Boldin, Bal </TD><TD>30 </TD><TD>7.7 </TD><TD>6.0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Benjamin Watson, Cle </TD><TD>30 </TD><TD>7.7 </TD><TD>3.2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Danario Alexander, StL </TD><TD>23 </TD><TD>7.7 </TD><TD>0.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mike Sims-Walker, StL </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>7.7 </TD><TD>2.9 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brandon Pettigrew, Det </TD><TD>36 </TD><TD>7.5 </TD><TD>4.4 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Greg Jennings, GB </TD><TD>38 </TD><TD>7.5 </TD><TD>2.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Laurent Robinson, Dal </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>7.5 </TD><TD>3.5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Brandon Lloyd, Den </TD><TD>32 </TD><TD>7.3 </TD><TD>3.5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oak </TD><TD>29 </TD><TD>7.3 </TD><TD>4.5 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Jason Hill, Jac </TD><TD>27 </TD><TD>7.3 </TD><TD>2.1 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mike Williams, TB </TD><TD>39 </TD><TD>7.3 </TD><TD>2.2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Antonio Brown, Pit </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>2.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Kellen Winslow, TB </TD><TD>36 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>1.8 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Legedu Naanee, Car </TD><TD>33 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>3.7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mario Manningham, NYG </TD><TD>28 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>2.0 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Mohamed Massaquoi, Cle </TD><TD>28 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>1.7 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Sidney Rice, Sea </TD><TD>21 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>2.6 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Torrey Smith, Bal </TD><TD>15 </TD><TD>7.0 </TD><TD>1.4 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

General observations from Week 5 games:

Darrius Heyward-Bey, Oakland Raiders (12 targets, 7 receptions, 99 yards): If you ignore his game versus the New York Jets, which is reasonable considering he was returning from a knee injury and the Raiders were running the ball down the Jets' throats, Heyward-Bey is averaging 8.7 targets per game this season. Although you shouldn't feel comfortable starting him on a week-to-week basis, he makes for a solid option as a bye-week filler, especially in deeper leagues.
Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (11 targets, 7 receptions, 128 yards): There might not be a more frustrating receiver to own than Bowe, but he's on a hot streak right now that cannot be ignored. Bowe is capable of being a top-five receiver in the league for a short period of time, but know that it's a good idea to trade him while his stock is highest because of the potential for his production to fall off a cliff.
Jacoby Jones, Houston Texans (11 targets, 1 reception, 9 yards): Jones' stat line from Sunday would allow for the casual player to easily miss the fact that the Texans gave the chances that normally would fall to Andre Johnson to Jones. Jones is capable of filling that role in a way that makes him a solid fantasy option.

Dane Sanzenbacher, Chicago Bears (10 targets, 6 receptions, 64 yards): Those of you in deeper leagues should take note of Sanzenbacher. He has seven or more targets in three of his five games and has been targeted on five of Jay Cutler's 16 throws inside the red zone.
Aaron Hernandez, New England Patriots (9 targets, 5 receptions, 56 yards): Hernandez has played three games this season. In all three games, he has been targeted eight or more times. On most teams, having two receiving tight ends would be suicidal for fantasy productivity, but Rob Gronkowski and Hernandez complement each other so well that they actually are positive influences on each other's fantasy value.
Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (9 targets, 6 receptions, 50 yards): Those who selected White as one of the top three receivers off the board no doubt are disappointed with his year-to-date performance. Well, don't be. Matt Ryan has been nothing but awful on passes that have traveled more than 19 yards in the air. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Ryan is just 2-of-14 this season on that type of pass. Ryan has been known as one of the more accurate downfield passers in his brief career, so expect him to rebound, which would in turn raise White's value.
Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 targets, 4 receptions, 28 yards): I was alone on an island when I picked Josh Freeman as my bust quarterback this year. My logic was simple: His completion percentage and TD/INT ratio last season were far removed from what he had posted in college. Williams' drop in fantasy production is tied completely to Freeman's reverting to the form he displayed before last season.
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles (8 targets, 6 receptions, 54 yards): If it weren't for the two-point performance Maclin posted in Week 1 while he was still getting into game shape, we'd be looking at Maclin as a top-10 receiver. Maclin's value is wrongly depressed because of DeSean Jackson being his teammate. Don't worry about Jackson's presence because Maclin is a stud, and he should be valued as such.
Arian Foster, Houston Texans (7 targets, 5 receptions, 116 yards): A big part of Foster's amazing run to "most valuable fantasy player" status last season was his involvement in the Texans' passing game. This Sunday, the Texans seemed to make a conscious effort to get him involved in that manner. While Foster was out, Ben Tate was targeted only eight times.
Marques Colston, Saints (6 targets, 5 receptions, 69 yards): Although picking which Saints receiver is going to score is difficult because of the way Drew Brees spreads the football around, Colston's performance Sunday showed that he is back to full health and can be counted on to be the most consistent wide receiver option on one of the NFL's premier passing attacks.
Denarius Moore, Raiders (6 targets, 0 receptions, 0 yards): Chalk up this performance to growing pains and keep him on your roster because of the number of targets he received. This bagel should be attributed to Johnathan Joseph's coverage of Moore, but if something similar happens again in the next two games, feel free to bail on him.

Big plays, up close

Fourteen NFL players totaled three or more rushes that gained 10 or more yards each: Jahvid Best (5), Matt Forte (5), Frank Gore (5), Ryan Mathews (5), Willis McGahee (5), Adrian Peterson (5), Jackie Battle (4), LeSean McCoy (4), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (3), Fred Jackson (3), Maurice Jones-Drew (3), Marshawn Lynch (3), Michael Vick (3) and DeAngelo Williams (3).
Regardless of your situation, Battle is worthy of the first waiver slot in your league. Ignore the ineptness of the Indianapolis Colts' defense and focus on the facts that Thomas Jones has been a nonfactor and that Matt Cassel is showing signs of life. Battle is going to be given every chance to be the primary ball carrier for the Chiefs, and, based on early returns, whoever owns him in your league is going to enjoy the fruits of his labor.
Last week's column highlighted how Cam Newton is the primary running weapon for the Carolina Panthers once they are inside their opponent's 10-yard line. The only way Williams or Jonathan Stewart is going to have fantasy value is if either one can break big plays. Well, Williams' tally of three big-play carries this week gives him five in the past two weeks. Meanwhile, Stewart has just two in those same two weeks. If this continues, Stewart should be relegated to the waiver wire in ESPN.com standard leagues.

Thirteen NFL players were given two or more rushes inside their opponent's 10-yard line: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (4), Isaac Redman (4), Cam Newton (3), Adrian Peterson (3), Michael Robinson (3), Delone Carter (2), Arian Foster (2), Frank Gore (2), Shonn Greene (2), Mark Ingram (2), Fred Jackson (2), Maurice Jones-Drew (2) and Mike Tolbert (2). Of that group, only Redman, Robinson, Foster and Tolbert failed to score.
Thirty-three of Green-Ellis' 77 carries have come when the Patriots are winning by seven or fewer points. In those carries, Green-Ellis is averaging 5.3 yards per carry. That success is likely to keep Green-Ellis as the Patriots' closer, much like the way he was used this past Sunday against the Jets.

HacheMan · Oct 12, 2011

Ranks reax: Good matchup for Pack RBs

Eric Karabell

It's probably happened before, but I can't recall a situation in which one player outside of the top 10 at any position was given the same rank by all four rankers. Check out the Week 6 running back rankings, and there's Green Bay Packers underachiever James Starks sitting at No. 18. We all did it! Now, how can I call Starks an underachiever yet I have him in my top 20? Well, it's easy. Six teams are on a bye, taking a few decent running backs with them, and the Packers have a great matchup this week against the brutal St. Louis Rams.

I didn't really want Starks in my top 20, but I'll be honest, it just kind of happened. I can't put Darren Sproles higher. Even though Sproles is getting more carries than he was a few weeks ago, he's still not getting a lot of them. I couldn't move Shonn Greene into the top 20. I don't think he's very good, or getting the proper help from his quarterback and offensive line. DeAngelo Williams? Good luck getting 100 yards on nine carries again. Ryan Torain? Could get 25 carries this week, or just five. Thanks, Mike Shanahan. We can always count on you!

So there's Starks at No. 18, a staff agreement like I haven't seen before. I can't speak for anyone else, but the matchup got Starks into my top 20. It might not happen again, either, so if he does go off, try to trade him.
I certainly thought Starks would do more with his opportunity this season. Sure, it might be tough to fault a guy when he's averaging 4.4 yards per rush, which isn't bad, but we don't deal in yards per rush in fantasy, or team wins, as the Packers are one of only two undefeated teams. Starks has mustered just 12 fantasy points the past three weeks. That's poor. There were 17 running backs that got 12 fantasy points in Week 5 alone. Jackie Battle got 13. Starks looked special at times during the Packers playoff run to the title, but he doesn't look special now.
And still I ranked Starks 18th. My initial reaction was one of disbelief. But consider the matchup: Give it up for the Rams, because they certainly are giving it up to opposing running backs. We know the Philadelphia Eagles are an embarrassment against the run, and the Carolina Panthers are pretty bad, too, but the Rams are right behind them as the third-easiest for opposing running backs to torch. That's the team Torain skewered in Week 4 after not having played all season. Their points allowed reads like a typical LeBron James scoring week (26, 23, 22 and 24 points). (By the way, nice going, NBA. I think James could help a bunch of NFL teams at wide receiver, don't you?)
So where's Ryan Grant been during all this Starks disappointment? Well, would you believe the four rankers nearly had the exact rank on him as well? I had him 27th, meaning he's more flex than anything else, and the staff range was 27-29. I doubt Grant ends up in my top 30 again soon. He's actually averaging 4.5 yards per rush, but he's not scoring. He missed a game at the worst time, coming off a 92-yard performance, and ultimately he's not getting many chances, either. Look, when you have Aaron Rodgers, you're going to throw the ball; Rodgers is eighth in pass attempts but third in completions. There has been opportunity here. I was a Grant guy prior to the season, but it's looking like neither Green Bay running back is going to help fantasy owners much this season … well, after this week anyway!
Here are some other quick thoughts on my Week 6 rankings (by position): Quarterback: My top 7 matches precisely with the staff averages, and the first player I really differ on is Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets. He's 1-3 lifetime against the Miami Dolphins with a meager average of 16 completions per game, though six touchdowns and only one interception do paint a better picture. I thought ranking him 16th was even a bit generous, but it's like Starks' rank; someone has to be 16th. Sanchez has topped 17 fantasy points in just one game this season. I also seem to like Rex Grossman against Philly more than most. All Philly games are shootouts!

</P>
Running back: I nearly placed Cedric Benson in my top 10. It's the Indianapolis Colts! Had you heard of Jackie Battle before last week? Benson should eventually serve a suspension of some length, but he's active this week. I ranked him 12th. Thanks, Colts! It's the gift that keeps on giving (Mark Ingram and Chris Johnson are up in Weeks 7 and 8, by the way). I also think it's too early to stop ranking Rashard Mendenhall as a top-20 running back, though the Steelers really didn't run that great in Week 5. Jonathan Dwyer just broke one big play. Wide receiver: Miles Austin last played in Week 2; he was fantasy's top wide receiver entering Week 3. I ranked him 10th, worst of the crew. That surprised me. Oh, Dallas plays the Patriots. I do like Victor Cruz quite a bit, and I was worst on Mario Manningham. I think Cruz has legit opportunity to keep on thriving. I did not rank James Jones of the Packers close to the others; one big 70-yarder gets people excited? Go with David Nelson or Danario Alexander instead.

HacheMan · Oct 13, 2011

Peace And Quiet

Wednesday was a day without headlines.

Yes, Aaron Curry was dealt to the Raiders, and yes it was revealed LeGarrette Blount (knee) and Julio Jones (hamstring) likely will not play this weekend, but for a Wednesday smack dab in the middle of the season, it was almost eerily quiet.

Of course, this is a good thing.

When Arian Foster went down before the season even began and Jamaal Charles was lost for it three weeks later, it appeared 2011 would be a year marred by injury more than any other before it.

Foster, Beanie Wells, Marques Colston, Peyton Hillis, Steven Jackson, Miles Austin and Dez Bryant were just a few of the legion of stars to miss games during the season’s first four weeks.

But in reality, 2011 has proven to be a remarkably healthy year. The fact that we’re entering Week 6 with only two players among this year’s top 100 by average draft position, Charles and Kenny Britt, lost for the season is remarkable.

It’s good fortune that’s unlikely to last, but for one week at least, we can revel in unusual quiet as the season enters into its separation period.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
With Blount out, Earnest Graham will be the man taking his place in the Bucs backfield.

Graham is already in the middle of one of 2011’s more peculiar campaigns. Stuck behind one of the league’s most bruising workhorse backs, Graham has carried the ball just 18 times for 84 yards. But the same workhorse he’s stuck behind has also proven incapable of making an impact in the passing game, leaving all the work to Graham.

What’s he done with it through his first five games? Haul in 23 catches, more than Dwayne Bowe, DeSean Jackson and Mike Williams, to name a few.

Of course, he’s posted just 143 receiving yards, but the point is Graham is somebody that should have already been firmly on the radar in PPR leagues. Now he’s one of Week 6’s most intriguing fill-ins.

It’s doubtful the Bucs will lean on Graham the way they do Blount. He’s carried the ball just 38 times in his past 17 games, and has not surpassed 20 totes in a game since 2008. But he’s been effective when given the chance the past two seasons, averaging 4.82 yards on his 38 carries. Going up a against a run-of-the-mill Saints’ run defense, he’ll be a solid play in all formats and above-average one in PPR leagues.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
While Blount was all but ruled out on Wednesday, Julio Jones (hamstring) was officially ruled out.

It’s a tough break for a player who’s been one of the league’s most productive rookies. Through five games, Jones’ 25 catches are tied for 19th in the league while his 358 yards are 18th.

His loss is also ill-timed for a Falcons offense struggling to find its identity early on this season. The only one of Jones’ numbers that’s been unimpressive is his 14.3 yards per catch, which is good for just 47th amongst pass catchers. It’s not emblematic of the way he’s played, however, but of the state of the Falcons’ passing attack.

Despite dedicating their offseason to making their offense more explosive, it has been anything but through five weeks. It’s hard to see how Matt Ryan and company will be able to take a step forward in Week 6 without their dynamic rookie.

The good news is, Jones was able to work out on Wednesday, and the Falcons are optimistic he’ll be able to return in Week 7 against the Lions. With Atlanta then going on bye in Week 8, that means, at worst, fantasy owners will be stuck with an absent or limited Jones for only two weeks. He remains a must own in all formats.

Starting in his place this weekend will be slot-man Harry Douglas. A popular sleeper before the season, it’s hard to recommend him as a fill-in considering he’s caught just 11 passes for 80 yards.

NEWS OF THE DAY #4
Part of the reason news on the injury front has been so quiet this week is because one of the league’s most banged up teams is on bye.

Ryan Mathews (calf, root canal), Vincent Jackson (hamstring), Mike Tolbert (concussion) and Antonio Gates (foot) all sat out of Chargers practice on Wednesday. However, all four are tentatively expected to give it a go in Week 7, with only Gates looking like a question mark.

This is despite the fact he’s been targeting Week 7 as his return since his foot first acted up in Week 2.

On Tuesday, he spoke cautiously about his health. "I can't make any predictions because I don't want to hold up to that, especially with the way it's been going. Fluctuating up and down.”

The future Hall-of-Famer did say he’s felt "a lot better" of late, but that he would not return before feeling "at peace" with his foot structurally.

There’s still good reason to believe Gates will return when scheduled and dominate like he has most weeks since becoming a full-time starter in 2004. But if you’re an owner, it’s clear you need a contingency plan in place.

NEWS OF THE DAY #5
One player receiving good news on Wednesday was Rashard Mendenhall, who was not on the Steelers’ injury report and able to turn in a full practice.

One week after sitting out against the Titans, he will take the field against the Jaguars and look to boost his anemic 3.0 yards per carry against the league’s 10th ranked run defense.

He could be in for one more week of frustration, but with Arizona on the docket for Week 8, it’s hard to believe he’ll remain so down for much longer.

NEWS OF THE DAY #6
Even with Tebow-mania now firmly taking hold in Denver, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Wednesday that the Broncos are unlikely to trade backup Kyle Orton ahead of next week’s deadline.

The news is not surprising considering Orton’s odious $7.379 million and lackluster play this season. What is surprising is the fact the Broncos kept him in the first place. Not trading him during trading camp is looking like one of the sillier non-moves in recent history.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Lee Evans (ankle) practiced in a limited fashion Wednesday. He should be able to take the field for the first time since Week 2 this weekend. … Brandon Jacobs (knee) failed to return to practice. The odds we see him before the Giants return from their bye in Week 8 appear low. … Jason Hill (thigh) was limited in practice Wednesday, but should be active against the Steelers on Sunday. … Aaron Hernandez (knee) participated in Patriots practice Wednesday, and appears to have moved on from his sprained MCL. … Joseph Addai (hamstring) did not practice, further decreasing the odds he takes the field this weekend. … Percy Harvin (ribs) practiced in a limited fashion, a good sign that he’ll be active this weekend.

HacheMan · Oct 13, 2011

Week 6 Rankings

I re-watched the Texans-Raiders game this week to see what Houston's defense did to slow Darren McFadden down. The answer was surprising: They really didn’t do anything special.

Houston didn’t need to bring an eighth man down in the box. In fact, they had six in the box more often than eight. McFadden wound up making some plays because he's Darren McFadden (and still the best bet to finish the year as the top running back), but Houston's defense slowed him down effectively because they are disciplined and Brian Cushing is playing like a madman again.

It's about that point of the season where early season stories become more than trends. Houston's defense, even without Mario Williams, is better than average. Fred Jackson really is a RB1. (Heck, he may be the runner-up at the moment for the Fantasy MVP award behind Wes Welker.) Matt Ryan really is generic, and Jimmy Graham really has proven that his Average Draft Position was too low.

On to the rankings, lovingly compiled by Chris Wesseling and myself:

Week 6 Quarterbacks

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Aaron Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Tom Brady</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Michael Vick</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Drew Brees</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Cam Newton</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Tony Romo</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Matthew Stafford</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Eli Manning</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Ben Roethlisberger</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Ryan Fitzpatrick</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Joe Flacco</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>One eyebrow</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Matt Ryan</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>No Julio</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Matt Schaub</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>14</TD><TD>Jay Cutler</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>15</TD><TD>Josh Freeman</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Rex Grossman</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Mark Sanchez</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Alex Smith</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Sam Bradford</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Jason Campbell</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>Probable(foot)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Colt McCoy</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Donovan McNabb</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Andy Dalton</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Matt Moore</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Rather have the Rays pitcher</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Curtis Painter</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Blaine Gabbert</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

QB Notes: Raiders-Texans was a study in two quarterbacks that don't handle the blitz well. Matt Schaub hasn't mastered the mental side of the game. He doesn't see the blitz coming, or where to throw the ball. He's not playing well late in games this year. He's a fine fantasy option in the right matchup, but hasn't taken that next step. Sit him if you can this week. ... No one ducks before he throws when a rusher is coming more than Blaine Gabbert. That’s a very bad sign for a rookie. It's hard to teach pocket presence.

The Steelers did a great job getting the ball out of Ben Roethlisberger's hands quickly last week. He should have another strong effort against Jacksonville. ... America saw what Matthew Stafford has looked like all year on Monday night. He’s hitting enough big plays to be a solid QB1 in fantasy, but he's also missing a lot of throws and struggling to sustain drives. He can look so good on a given play or in a given quarter, but he’s just not as consistent as the elite guys. Yet. ... It's a very bad sign for Jay Cutler that he played that well and the Bears still only scored 13 points. You can’t expect him to pull off those throws each week.

Eli Manning is third in the league in yards-per-attempt. That doesn't figure to go down against a soft bills defense. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick is slowing down just a tad as the Bills smartly transition to a balanced offense. Without Donald Jones, the Bills will struggle to stretch the field. … Matt Ryan is really struggling. He's ranked as a borderline starter only because of the matchup and a lack of other good options this week.

Editor's Note: You can get our Season Pass package for all sorts of extra goodies. Early rankings, extra stat tools, projections, and columns.


Week 6 Running Backs

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Darren McFadden</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Adrian Peterson</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Arian Foster</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Fred Jackson</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>LeSean McCoy</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Ray Rice</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Frank Gore</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Matt Forte</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Maurice Jones-Drew</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Michael Turner</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Peyton Hillis</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Jahvid Best</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>13</TD><TD>Ahmad Bradshaw</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>14</TD><TD>Cedric Benson</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Rashard Mendenhall</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Ranked as if starting</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Felix Jones</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Daniel Thomas</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Questionable (hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shonn Greene</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>BenJarvus Green-Ellis</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Probable(toe)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Darren Sproles</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Tim Hightower</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>Probable(shoulder)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>James Starks</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Ryan Torain</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>Uncertain starter</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>DeAngelo Williams</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Mark Ingram</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Earnest Graham</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>Ranked as if no Blount</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>Steven Jackson</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>Probable(quadriceps)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Ryan Grant</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>Probable(middle body)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Jonathan Stewart</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Stevan Ridley</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Pierre Thomas</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Donald Brown</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Delone Carter</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Kendall Hunter</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Isaac Redman</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>Move to top 20 if no Mendenhall</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Reggie Bush</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Move to top 30 if no Thomas</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Brandon Jacobs</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Montario Hardesty</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Bernard Scott</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Michael Bush</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>Kregg Lumpkin</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Ben Tate</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>Probable(groin)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>LaDainian Tomlinson</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Jason Snelling</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>Probable(concussion)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Ricky Williams</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Roy Helu</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Marion Barber</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>C.J. Spiller</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Jacquizz Rodgers</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>DeMarco Murray</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Joe McKnight</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Probable(finger)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Jonathan Dwyer</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Deji Karim</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Tashard Choice</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Keiland Williams</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Jerome Harrison</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Ronnie Brown</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Cadillac Williams</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

RB Notes: Darren McFadden hasn't improved that much as a pass blocker, but he's taken his game to another level as a route runner. He looks so smooth when the Raiders line him up out wide. Expect to see more of that. McFadden also seems to have improved his vision. He finds the hole quickly and makes people miss while moving forward… The Texans have outscored opponents 76-12 in the first half this year. That sort of trend will lead to a ridiculous amount of rushing attempts. ... The Raiders aren’t good at covering backs coming out the backfield. That may especially be true this week because they are thin at linebacker. Look for Peyton Hillis to get a lot of touches, especially through the air.

Jahvid Best's Monday night summed him well. He's going to be a boom or bust guy depending on the week, with too many booms to ever bench him. The Lions are doing a nice job not overusing him. This is a very tough matchup for him, but I still can’t see benching him. ... Matt Forte is still struggling in short yardage. It's mostly the offensive line’s fault, but Marion Barber could start vulturing scores. ... Ahmad Bradshaw continues to get respect because the matchup is right and he's getting a ton of touches.

Even when Stevan Ridley had his big game against Oakland, he didn't get a ton of snaps. The Patriots trust BGE more especially on passing downs. Danny Woodhead is uncertain to play this week. ... The Colts rush defense started off the season well, but has steadily gone downhill. They aren’t the same on grass. Cedric Benson is a safe play. ... Maurice Jones-Drew is playing as well as he ever has. His team just stinks. The offseason surgery seemingly didn't affect him at all.

Frank Gore has a good matchup this week. Detroit's rush defense gets exposed because they fly up the field so much. ... I couldn’t be much more down on Michael Turner as a player, but the matchup is right this week. Might not be a bad time to trade him after this game. ... I wouldn’t get too cute with Rashard Mendenhall. It's a tough matchup, but just use him if he starts.

Keep an eye on Daniel Thomas' status. We may remove him from the rankings later in the week. ... I just don’t trust Ryan Torain. Don’t be shocked if Tim Hightower gets more touches against Philadelphia. The matchup is right, so both players are decent high risk options. ... Earnest Graham is good for one big game a season. The Saints rush defense is just as bad as it usually is. ... Steven Jackson doesn’t figure to get a lot of touches in a game the Rams will be trailing in. ... Donald Brown and Delone Carter are better off avoided in a tough matchup against the Bengals


Week 6 Wide Receivers

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Calvin Johnson</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Wes Welker</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Hakeem Nicks</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Probable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Greg Jennings</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Mike Wallace</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Steve Smith</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Roddy White</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Miles Austin</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>Probable(hamstring)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>DeSean Jackson</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Dez Bryant</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Jeremy Maclin</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>A.J. Green</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Stevie Johnson</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Santonio Holmes</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Santana Moss</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Jordy Nelson</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Marques Colston</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Brandon Marshall</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>Revis Island?</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Anquan Boldin</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>Joseph Island?</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Victor Cruz</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>Going to Hawaii?</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Percy Harvin</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>I’m out of islands</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Reggie Wayne</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Pierre Garcon</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Mario Manningham</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Mike Williams</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Kevin Walter</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>27</TD><TD>David Nelson</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>28</TD><TD>Deion Branch</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>29</TD><TD>Mike Thomas</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>30</TD><TD>Michael Crabtree</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>31</TD><TD>Greg Little</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>32</TD><TD>Plaxico Burress</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>Probable(elbow)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>33</TD><TD>Harry Douglas</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>Sneaky play</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>34</TD><TD>Lance Moore</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>35</TD><TD>Denarius Moore</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>36</TD><TD>Mike Sims-Walker</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>37</TD><TD>Robert Meachem</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>38</TD><TD>Davone Bess</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>39</TD><TD>Johnny Knox</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>40</TD><TD>Hines Ward</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>41</TD><TD>James Jones</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>42</TD><TD>Nate Burleson</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>43</TD><TD>Darrius Heyward-Bey</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>44</TD><TD>Antonio Brown</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>45</TD><TD>Jacoby Ford</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>46</TD><TD>Jacoby Jones</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>47</TD><TD>Jabar Gaffney</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>48</TD><TD>Lee Evans</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>49</TD><TD>Mohamed Massaquoi</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>50</TD><TD>Dane Sanzenbacher</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>51</TD><TD>Titus Young</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>52</TD><TD>Roy Williams</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>53</TD><TD>Brian Hartline</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>54</TD><TD>Austin Collie</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>55</TD><TD>Michael Jenkins</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>Probable(-)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>56</TD><TD>Arrelious Benn</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>57</TD><TD>Brandon Gibson</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>58</TD><TD>Brandon LaFell</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

WR Notes: Dez Bryant and Miles Austin should have a field day in New England. Their defense is steadily improving, but it's built to give up empty calorie yards before tightening up in the red zone. We are still waiting to see Bryant finish a game healthy, so hopefully the bye week helped there. ... Roddy White would be ranked even higher if he was 100%. The matchup is good against Carolina, although he may draw Chris Gamble. I love Harry Douglas as a sneaky play this week. Julio Jones is out, and the Panthers defense has all sorts of holes in it. Douglas impressed me in the preseason with his development. ... A.J. Green has earned every week starter status at this point, especially during this heavy bye week season. He's not just a deep threat. The team looks to him on third downs and in the red zone a ton.

There is a huge drop-off at wideout around Green and Stevie Johnson. Santonio Holmes isn't particularly trustworthy right now, but the Dolphins defense is giving up a lot of big plays. I bumped up Santana Moss this week because that should be a very high scoring game. ... Brandon Marshall isn't playing particularly well, and he’ll likely get the Darrelle Revis treatment. He should probably be ranked lower, but I’m not in love with the guys behind him. ... David Nelson has let us down, but the Giants secondary has struggled against receivers like him. ... I'm still not giving up on Mario Manningham. New York is third in the league in yards-per-attempt and he’ll get some. Victor Cruz is playing too well to sit. ... Greg Little is a decent WR3 option against a leaky Raiders secondary. Little is now a starter. ... Davon Bess could benefit from the move to Matt Moore. He's better throwing short routes. Plus Bess will avoid Revis this week.

There's no reason to particularly trust Pierre Garcon, but he's earned WR3 status at worst. ... Michael Crabtree isn’t playing enough snaps to fully trust. ... Perhaps it doesn't matter how we rank the Raiders wideouts. There's no way to tell who steps up in a given week. Denarius Moore should avoid Joe Haden this week. Jacoby Ford had a couple bad drops last week. Chaz Schilens is back in the mix, and Louis Murphy will be soon. Oakland just doesn’t throw enough to support all these guys.

Pittsburgh is becoming a similar situation to Oakland. There's no one to trust after Mike Wallace. ... Blaine Gabbert is starting to make some better throws on third down, which should at least make Mike Thomas a PPR option later in the year. I still am not in love with Gabbert's pocket presence. Jason Hill is only playable when he faces former Jaguar Reggie Nelson and gets the benefit of busted coverage. ... Derrick Mason shouldn’t be a factor in Houston. Kevin Walter is their No. 1 receiver until Andre Johnson is back. He has a tough matchup this week against a Ravens secondary playing well. ... Anquan Boldin could struggle in the same game lining up against Johnathan Joseph.

The Bears passing attack can't do the most basic things. That makes Johnny Knox a poor option even in a good matchup. And Minnesota plays well against the pass. ... Detroit's offense struggles to consistently sustain drives. Nate Burleson hasn’t emerged as a consistent threat.


Week 6 Tight Ends

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Jermichael Finley</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>Probable(ankle)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Jimmy Graham</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Jason Witten</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Owen Daniels</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Rob Gronkowski</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Vernon Davis</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Brandon Pettigrew</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Aaron Hernandez</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Tony Gonzalez</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Dustin Keller</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Fred Davis</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Kellen Winslow</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>Questionable(knee)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Greg Olsen</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Jermaine Gresham</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Kevin Boss</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Heath Miller</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Dallas Clark</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Ed Dickson</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Ben Watson</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>Probable(hip)</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Marcedes Lewis</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Evan Moore</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Visanthe Shiancoe</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Scott Chandler</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Chris Cooley</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Brent Celek</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

TE Notes: Dallas Clark dropped three passes last week. I've never seen that before. I wouldn't drop him, but it’s a legitimate thought. ... Dustin Keller has a good chance to score against a shaky Miami safety situation. ... Fred Davis should bounce back against the Eagles safeties. ... Aaron Hernandez is a risky play. He didn’t seem 100% last week and it wouldn't shock me if the Patriots rested him. ... Tony Gonzalez should benefit from Julio Jones' absence. ... Kevin Boss remains a fine bye-week pickup if you need help.

Week 6 Team Defense

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Steelers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Packers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>Bengals Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Jets Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Ravens Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Lions Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Bears Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Fortyniners Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Vikings Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>Saints Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Raiders Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Eagles Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Redskins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Texans Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Dolphins Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Colts Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Patriots Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Giants Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Browns Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Falcons Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Bills Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Cowboys Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Jaguars Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Buccaneers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Panthers Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Rams Def/Spec Team</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Week 6 Kickers

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%"><TBODY><TR class=TableTopRed><TD>Rank</TD><TD>Player Name</TD><TD>Opponent</TD><TD>Notes</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>1</TD><TD>Sebastian Janikowski</TD><TD>vs. CLE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>2</TD><TD>Stephen Gostkowski</TD><TD>vs. DAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>3</TD><TD>John Kasay</TD><TD>at TB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>4</TD><TD>Jason Hanson</TD><TD>vs. SF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>5</TD><TD>Mason Crosby</TD><TD>vs. STL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>6</TD><TD>Matt Bryant</TD><TD>vs. CAR</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>7</TD><TD>Robbie Gould</TD><TD>vs. MIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>8</TD><TD>Neil Rackers</TD><TD>at BAL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>9</TD><TD>Dan Bailey</TD><TD>at NE</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>10</TD><TD>David Akers</TD><TD>at DET</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>11</TD><TD>Billy Cundiff</TD><TD>vs. HOU</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>12</TD><TD>Rian Lindell</TD><TD>at NYG</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>13</TD><TD>Olindo Mare</TD><TD>at ATL</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>14</TD><TD>Ryan Longwell</TD><TD>at CHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>15</TD><TD>Alex Henery</TD><TD>at WAS</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>16</TD><TD>Nick Folk</TD><TD>vs. MIA</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>17</TD><TD>Lawrence Tynes</TD><TD>vs. BUF</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>18</TD><TD>Shaun Suisham</TD><TD>vs. JAC</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>19</TD><TD>Dan Carpenter</TD><TD>at NYJ</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>20</TD><TD>Connor Barth</TD><TD>vs. NO</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>21</TD><TD>Josh Brown</TD><TD>at GB</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>22</TD><TD>Adam Vinatieri</TD><TD>at CIN</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>23</TD><TD>Mike Nugent</TD><TD>vs. IND</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>24</TD><TD>Phil Dawson</TD><TD>at OAK</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW2><TD>25</TD><TD>Graham Gano</TD><TD>vs. PHI</TD><TD>-</TD></TR><TR class=TABLEALTROW1><TD>26</TD><TD>Josh Scobee</TD><TD>at PIT</TD><TD>-</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HacheMan · Oct 13, 2011

A minute with Tim Tebow

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com

"Sure."

Not the most exciting or original answer, of course, but I suspect you would have had an identical reaction when posed the same question.

"Would you like to meet Tim Tebow?" my friend had asked.

"Sure," I answered. "Why not?"

I was never a huge Tebow fan. Not a hater either, but I'm not a huge fan of either the Florida Gators or even college football in general, so I didn't get the hero worship and adulation that had been heaped on him ad nauseam throughout his college career. But whatever. I already had my drink, I didn't know very many people at the party, he's always seemed nice enough ... what the hell. Let's go meet Tim Tebow.

So my friend brings me over, we shake hands and say hello. I told him who I was, what I did and mentioned that we had, in fact, just talked about him on the podcast. He had just been drafted a little while ago, so I told him that we had speculated on what his fantasy value might be in Denver.

He was very pleasant, said he wasn't sure what his role would be with the Broncos yet but would do whatever the coaches asked of him and that he was excited to start the new chapter of his career. I wish him luck, we shake hands, I walk away. Maybe we talked for an entire minute. Maybe.

So whatever, right? Nice enough guy, typical party small talk, now I can say I've met Tim Tebow. There you go. Time for another drink.

Maybe four hours later, the party is winding down. I'm walking toward the back to collect my buddy and on the way, I pass Tebow coming back the other way with his brother, whom I had also met. And I give Tim a slight head nod. You know, the kind of slight head nod you give to your co-workers when you pass them in the hallway to acknowledge you realize they are there and don't want it to be awkward but also don't want anyone to feel they have to stop and talk. So I gave Tim one of those as I keep walking past him.

He stops. And turns to me.

"Hey Matthew. It was really great to meet you. Good luck with the podcast this year!"

He recounts every single thing we talked about and shakes my hand one more time. I shake it back with what I am sure is a stunned expression on my face.

And it was in that moment I totally got it. I understood the Tebow mania. And became a huge fan of his.

Look, I've had a very weird, charmed, Forrest Gump-like life. I spent 12 years in Los Angeles as a television and film writer/producer. And then I've been with ESPN for five years. And as a result of both jobs and thanks to my younger brother (a Hollywood manager) and ex-wife (a high-ranking Hollywood executive), I've met a ton of well-known athletes, celebrities, actors, rock stars, you name it. Tons. That's not a brag -- almost anyone in show business or the sports industry can say the same thing, so it's not like I am anything special. But of all the famous people I've met, this was the most genuine, the most uncalculated, the most impressive interaction I'd ever had.
When you are as famous as Tim Tebow, someone approaches you every 30 seconds and tells you their life story. They went to Florida. They were in the stands when he made some big play. They watched that game with their dying grandfather. They've always been a big fan. They went to grade school with his cousin. He won them their fantasy league last year. Whatever. Everyone has a story or some anecdote or just wants to say hi, get a picture, have a moment. Every 30 seconds. Every day of his life. It can be exhausting.

And yet, generally, famous people are nice. People are coming up, they're saying nice things to you, it's easy to be pleasant back. I didn't love talking to Alex Rodriguez when I met him. Jim Belushi, Paul Hogan and oddly, the members of Cheap Trick were fairly unpleasant people. But usually, folks are nice. Nice in a "oh yeah, great to meet ya, cocktail party " kind of way, but nice.

This was different. After we finish our podcast, I have to record a 15-second promo and I literally have to turn to Nate and ask "What did we talk about again?" I can't remember what I ate for dinner last night. But Tim Tebow remembered a four-hour-old, one-minute conversation among the hundred he must have had and managed to make me feel like he was genuinely pleased to have met me. So I was impressed. But more importantly, I got why people were so reverent for him and why I think he will be successful in the NFL. You want to play hard for that guy. You saw the lift his teammates got when he came in; they played with more passion. There's no question. I realize it all sounds sort of school girl crush-ish and it probably is on some level. I'm genuinely a fan. And that doesn't happen often. In 30 seconds, Tim Tebow completely changed the way I thought about him.

I tweeted earlier this week that I thought Tebow should be the No. 1 pickup this week and I acknowledge the critics on his accuracy, his footwork and his lack of a pocket presence. I hear you. But his running and aggressive passing will add up to big fantasy numbers. Cam Newton lite, if you will. And ultimately, I think he will be a very successful NFL quarterback. Seems dumb, I know, off one quick interaction that has nothing to do with playing football, but I'm a pretty good judge of character. Some people just have "it." Tim Tebow has "it" in spades. He's a winner who'll continue to defy every rule.

And as we enter Week 6 of the NFL season, so too do we have to change how we view players. I've always been an advocate of waiting on rookie quarterbacks and not drafting them and this year, with the lockout, was no exception. So what Newton has done is nothing short of spectacular. Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. There. Those are the only four quarterbacks I'd rather have the rest of the year over Cam. Never thought I'd write that. It's time to realize that Josh Freeman and Mike Williams of Tampa Bay, Rashard Mendenhall, Percy Harvin, Jonathan Stewart, Sam Bradford, all the Colts and others , though talented, are not what we hoped they would be. That the 49ers, Bengals and Bills are not what we expected. In a good way. Four or five weeks doesn't seem like enough time to know everything you need to know about these guys, but in a 17-week season, it's enough to get a pretty strong impression. Just like one minute with Tim Tebow. www.rapsports.com

Let's get to it. As always, this is not a pure start/sit but rather it's about players that I like or dislike more than my fellow rankers. For specific feelings on whether to start this guy or that guy, consult my Friday rankings, follow me on Twitter and Facebook and watch "Fantasy Football Now," Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN2.

Week 6 Players I Love

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers (My rank: 2, Average of the other three rankers: 5): An obvious name, but I have him at two overall, saying I am recommending you start him over every big-time stud you might have whose name doesn't rhyme with Sharon Dodgers. Good matchup; the Falcons are allowing the ninth-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but come on. The stats on Cam are just ridiculous. He's averaging 322 passing yards per game. He's tied for third in the NFL with five rushing touchdowns. He's the only player in NFL history with at least five rushing touchdowns and five passing touchdowns in his first five games. ESPN Next Level tells us he is averaging better than 10 "air yards" per pass attempt this year, the only QB in the NFL to do so. He's averaging 24.4 fantasy points a game. He once, upon finding an injured man on the side of the road, removed his own kidney and transplanted it to the injured guy, saving the man's life, using only a dipstick and half a roll of duct tape. He is looking forward to his bye week so he can get in the lab and finish up the cure for cancer. It was him who found Osama. Seriously, ridiculous stats.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (3, 5): Cowboys are tied for the third-most completions of 20-plus yards in the NFL, and that's with Miles Austin playing only two games. He's expected back this week and New England has allowed 32 completions of 20-plus yards, most in the NFL. The average is 17. I have a feeling that stat will come into play Sunday as will this fact: I enjoy bacon.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets (12, 17): Lost in all the criticism of Mark Sanchez and the claims of the Jets going back to "ground and pound" is that Sanchez has had two touchdown passes in four of five games this season. The one game he didn't was against the Ravens, which, as luck would have it, do not play for the city of Miami. The Dolphins are 31st in pass defense and have only two takeaways this whole season. They are particularly vulnerable in the middle of the field, where Sanchez is most effective. So, if you are looking for a QB outside the top 10 this week, channel your inner 20-year-old New York model/aspiring actress and shamelessly throw yourself at Mark.

Colt McCoy, QB, Browns (18, 20): In the preseason I had Colt as a sleeper and I would describe him as "Josh Freeman lite." But this year he's been, well, Josh Freeman. Nothing flashy, nothing huge but consistently decent numbers every week: 15, 13, 14 and 17 points. I like that the Raiders give up almost 20 fantasy points a game to opposing QBs, third-most in the NFL, that Colt threw 61 times in the last game, that the Browns have been outscored 27-3 in the first quarter this year, third-worst point differential in the league (catch-up play is fantasy fun for the whole family) and, of course, that he's named Colt. He's my fourth-favorite athlete named after an animal, after Goose Gossage, Moose Johnston and Hagfish Jones, a tight end that I just made up.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants (9, 10): You know what the Giants didn't do last week? Run. You know what else they didn't do last week? Win. Know what they are going to do this week? Against Buffalo's 29th-ranked run defense? Exactly. The Giants' offensive line is banged up, but Kyle Williams may miss this game for Buffalo, which helps even things out.

Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys (12, 19): I might be a little too high on him at 12 and will probably lower him slightly when the Friday ranking updates come out, but the Patriots are in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards-per-attempt and rushing touchdowns allowed. Teams often have to abandon the run against them because the Pats get up so big, but I think the Cowboys' offense can keep up with them enough to keep it interesting, which means a healthy dose of work for Felix as they try to limit the possessions for Brady and friends. Incidentally, I would totally watch a cartoon series called "Brady and friends." Especially if they had a van. And a talking dog. Note to young aspiring writers out there: You can never go wrong with a talking pet. America loves them. Loves them.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets (15, 20): Not like the Dolphins are all that against the run either. The Fish allow an average of 148 total yards a game to opposing running backs, and I expect Greene to get the majority of work.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (19, 20): What are they gonna do, let Matt Moore throw it? Exactly. Jets are actually 26th against the run, allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and on the road, on "Monday Night Football," the Dolphins will try to take the crowd out of it by controlling the clock.

Tim Hightower (27, 31) and Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (36, 41): Just putting them here because I feel everyone assumes Ryan Torain will be the main guy for Washington this week, and I'm not convinced that's the case. It's not just the crazy Shanahan factor, but also because Hightower got hurt in the last game. Watch the practice reports and tune into "Fantasy Football Now" on Sunday as we try to make more sense of this situation. It may very well be Torain, whom I currently have ranked the highest, but against Philly, I expect all three guys get work and I think both of these guys get more work than folks think.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals (13, 12): We're all high on A.J. this week and I assume it's for the same reasons. He's a baller with a great matchup.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts (20, 21): One of my better calls this year I think (partially making up for the horrific call on him last year), I've loved him for two weeks straight and he keeps making me look smart. OK, smarter. Anyway, he leads the team in targets since Painter took over and I expect Leon Hall to be on Reggie Wayne enough that the trend continues. I ranked Garcon ahead of Wayne this week and that's why.

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (27, 42): Kind of a sneaky play this week, I think. Check out what "No. 1 receivers" have done against Philly this year: Hakeem Nicks (3 for 25), Roddy White (3 for 23, though he did score), Steve Johnson (4 for 29), Michael Crabtree (5 for 68) and I don't know who you'd call the Rams' number one, but none of them had more than 50 yards. So I'm not expecting a huge day from Santana Moss, which could mean a nice little day for Gaffney, who has at least 60 yards in three straight games and is available in 94 percent of leagues.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (29, 45): I'm probably too high on him as well and he'll come down a bit on Friday, but I guess I believe in Weeks 2, 3 and 4, and not last week so much. It was a weird game; two scores for Hines Ward, five for Big Ben ... obviously that game went nowhere close to what I expected. But Brown is still second to Wallace in targets (only one fewer this year), and according to our friends at Football Outsiders, the Jags are fourth-best in the NFL against No. 1 receivers, but just 21st against No. 2's.

Greg Little, WR, Browns (36, 46): Bit of a gut call here, so be warned. Recently, those have not gone well. But Little moved into the starting lineup over the bye, had six catches for 57 yards on eight targets in Week 4, and you already know I like Colt.
Ted Ginn, WR, 49ers (NR):M Want a crazy, super-deep sleeper? He's not even in our top 50 but if you're in a really deep league and super desperate, Ginn could get a decent amount of looks given how much the 49ers are banged up at WR, how much scoring I am expecting them to have to do, and that the Lions aren't entirely sold on its own special teams.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (7, 11): You already know I like Sanchez, especially in the middle of the field. The Dolphins allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons (9, 6): With the news that Julio Jones is out, I'll move Gonzo up even further in my ranks on Friday. Should be a good game for him against Carolina, which just got torched by Jimmy Graham.

Benjamin Watson, TE, Browns (14, 15): If you think I am nervous about the number of Browns that show up on this list, you are correct.

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (5, 7): Double-digit fantasy points in two of the past three weeks, they are available in almost 60 percent of league and the thing I like most? They are currently tied for the eighth-most sacks in the NFL. When Curtis Painter faces five or more rushers this season, his QBR is 2. On a scale of 1 to 100.
Week 6 Players I Hate

[+] Enlarge

<CITE>Greg M. Cooper/US Presswire</CITE>For one week, "Tom Terrific" will have to settle for being "Tom Pretty OK."

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (6, 2): You're starting him. Just want to be clear here. Unless you also have Cam Newton, you're starting him. So don't get cute. He'll have a good game. So I'm not saying I really "hate" him; he's a stud, of course. But I put him in here just to explain my ranking of Brady at No. 6.

First, he's been fairly human (for him) for two straight games now: 17 and 14 points, respectively. Can we all agree the numbers 19 for 34 for 224 yards and two touchdowns aren't amazing? Well, those are Brady's stats the last time he faced a Rob Ryan-coached defense (last season's Browns). The Cowboys have had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots, the defense has gotten healthier, and I think Dallas will throw all sorts of looks at him. The Pats have been running in close more recently and I just don't see a crazy-huge game here.

Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers (20, 15): One touchdown pass and four interceptions total in his past three games, he's thrown for less than 200 yards in two of the three games. He's got two rushing touchdowns in that time, which has helped bail out his fantasy value, but you can't count on those. Probably no LeGarrette Blount, which puts even more attention on Freeman, and while it's actually a decent matchup for Freeman, I just wouldn't feel comfortable starting him until I see some more positive signs.

Curtis Painter, QB, Colts (24, 24): Being without a quarterback in a bye week is kind of like being in a bar at last call. Painter sort of looks good and, from just the right angle, you can sort of talk yourself into it. But come morning, you will wish you had gone another way. There are better options even during a bye week. See defense, Bengals.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers (22, 18): He's been terrible this year, with a high of 66 rushing yards. Signs point to him getting a full load, but coming off an injury we're not sure how much work he gets here and I'm a believer in a Jags front line that is in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns allowed and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (31, 29): He's become the third running game option on this team, after Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams, and he's not sniffing the ball at the goal line. OK, maybe he's sniffing it. Who knows what kind of weird stuff dudes are into. But he's not getting any carries. Here's his touches the past three weeks: 13, 12, 7. Trending in the wrong direction, and the Falcons did a good job with the Packers' run game last week.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins (39, 31): Every time I see that commercial I have the same thought. Reggie Bush for a pizza? That'd actually be a pretty fair trade.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts (32, 30): I ranked him higher than Donald Brown because he'll probably get any goal-line carries, but I thought he looked terrible last week, which was frustrating. He was a big preseason sleeper for me for exactly these reasons: Joseph Addai's health and goal-line chances. Now with Addai expected to be out, he faces the Bengals, who allow the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. I already expect the Colts to struggle on the road and I expect Carter to split carries. Carter went to Syracuse, just like I did (Go 'Cuse!) so I'm rooting for him. I hope I'm wrong this week. I don't think I am. (In fairness, I never think I am wrong. Until, of course, I am.)

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (18, 15): See Gaffney, Jabar.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins (19, 15): Revis Island. With Matt Moore at quarterback.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (26, 22): See Garcon, Pierre. Or D/ST, Bengals. Or Painter, Curtis. Or skip on down to Clark, Dallas, which is coming up in a bit. Just don't see a huge game.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints (39, 32): Actually love him as a player, but with Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Marques Colston getting all their looks, it's hard to count on any kind of consistent production from him. He'll have two or three big games this year, it's just gonna be impossible to predict when they'll happen.

Jacoby Jones (NR, 31) and Kevin Walter (46, 38), WR, Texans: On the road, at Baltimore? The Ravens have allowed one offensive touchdown at home all year. One. It's gonna be Arian Foster and Owen Daniels in the pass game, and no big numbers from either of those receivers unless there's some sort of fluke play.

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts (16, 16): The Bengals have allowed a total of three receptions and 14 total yards to opposing tight ends the last two games. With the pressure Cincy will bring, the Colts will keep Clark in to block. Stupidly, I think, he's not a blocker, but that's what I expect to happen. Again. Sigh.

Houston Texans D/ST (17, 10): Another one that I think I'm a little too low on, but the loss of Mario Williams is huge. Houston's secondary has improved but it's not great. They were getting help because of all the pressure Houston was putting on opposing quarterbacks. On the road, against a Ravens team coming off a bye that's had two weeks to prepare and has allowed only eight sacks all year? Don't love this matchup for the Texans, from a fantasy perspective.

That's all I got this week. Good luck in Week 6 and remember, only 11 shopping days until Tebow-mas.
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HacheMan · Oct 13, 2011

Flex rankings: Solid options on waiver wire

Eric Karabell

Hope your first week of filling the flex position during those annoying bye weeks went well. For me in looking at my various leagues, I admit it wasn't always so pretty. But again, whenever you take six NFL teams out of the picture, it's going to create a different kind of tough lineup choice. Instead of picking between borderline top-20 options at running back and wide receiver -- say Darren Sproles versus Santonio Holmes, for example -- during these awful bye weeks Donald Brown might look good. And he might be sitting there on free agency, too!
That's one positive thing about bye weeks; I find myself upgrading my bench during them because when push comes to shove, and I know I can't use Ryan Mathews because he's off, and I don't want to use someone I drafted whose stock has slipped -- Reggie Bush or Chad Ochocinco jump to mind -- the most attractive option might be sitting there for all to see and add. And when you get to the bottom of this week's flex rankings, you'll see some of those names do match free agents in your league.
So here we go to Week 6 of the flex rankings. Make the best decisions you can and good luck!

1. Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings: If only his first quarter last week could be replicated in full-game form each week.
2. Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders
3. Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: Back from his bye and ready to supply at least 15 fantasy points.
4. LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles: Don't blame him for the 1-4 start. Only one running back has more fantasy points.
5. Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: And here, of course, is that running back. Oh yeah, we all saw Fred Jackson as fantasy's top running back!
6. Calvin Johnson, WR, Lions: What, only one receiving touchdown in Week 5? He's slipping. Time to move him for a kicker. www.rapsports.com
7. Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Hey, running wild is one way to get paid.
8. Wes Welker, WR, Patriots: On pace for 436 receptions. Well, not quite.
9. Greg Jennings, WR, Packers
10. Frank Gore, RB, 49ers
11. Arian Foster, RB, Texans: Slowed by a sore quad this week, but still someone you just can never sit, unless he sits.
12. Roddy White, WR, Falcons: Honestly, I don't think the fact Julio Jones will miss this week's game helps or hurts him.
13. Michael Turner, RB, Falcons
14. Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: It's not like the mighty Bills have been stopping the run.
15. Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: Or the pass, for that matter.
16. Mike Wallace, WR, Steelers
17. Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars
18. Steve Smith, WR, Panthers
19. Cedric Benson, RB, Bengals: I feel like we talk more about his pending suspension than the fact he's on pace for 1,250-plus yards. He won't get quite that many this week against the Colts, but it's about the most favorable matchup possible.
20. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
21. Steven Jackson, RB, Rams
22. BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Patriots: Nope, can't say it matters much to me who else is healthy in this backfield. Law Firm gets the touchdowns and occasionally the yards.
23. Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints: Might as well rank him as a top-10 wide receiver, too. The numbers are there.
24. Jahvid Best, RB, Lions: When I watch him break a long run I'm just thinking: Don't pull a hammy. Is that so wrong?
25. Steve Johnson, WR, Bills
26. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys: Welcome back! Your present is the Patriots' secondary!
27. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals
28. Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: The return of Austin could power him to nice heights, as well.
29. Peyton Hillis, RB, Browns: I'd move him before something bad happens. I don't get a good vibe here.
30. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers: I'd trade for him before he gashes some poor team, and this week's foe is poor, for 120 rushing yards.
31. Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles
32. Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys
33. Santana Moss, WR, Redskins: Think back to a month ago and how most people would view a matchup with the feared Eagles. Now we can't wait to use our fantasy options against them!
34. James Starks, RB, Packers: Could be doing a lot more than he is.
35. Marques Colston, WR, Saints: Should be doing a lot more than he is.
36. Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins: Will be doing a lot more than he is.
37. Jermichael Finley, TE, Packers
38. Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins: Not a great matchup, but with Matt Moore slingin' it, what could go wrong?
39. Darren Sproles, RB, Saints
40. Victor Cruz, WR, Giants: The Giants found a good one here, and I think he keeps on putting up numbers. You know, the numbers never lie.
41. Shonn Greene, RB, Jets: The numbers say he has a pulse, which is nice. Are they lying?
42. Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys
43. Santonio Holmes, WR, Jets: You'd think if Mark Sanchez is throwing this much then Holmes would be doing better. In reality, Sanchez is only 10th in pass attempts (and 20th in completions!).
44. Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers
45. Ryan Torain, RB, Redskins: You think it's a lock he gets 20 carries, but you don't know coach Mike Shanahan like we do.
46. Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts: OK, I'm a believer now. And you won't find Dallas Clark anywhere on this list.
47. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: More carries equals more success. But he's not getting the carries.
48. Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers
49. Mark Ingram, RB, Saints
50. Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens
51. Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts
52. Percy Harvin, WR, Vikings
53. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers
54. Mario Manningham, WR, Giants: Don't look now, Mario, but someone's Cruzing past you on the depth chart.
55. Aaron Hernandez, TE, Patriots: Yes, I do believe he will put up bigger numbers than the team's other tight end. That's why I ranked him better.
56. Deion Branch, WR, Patriots
57. Ryan Grant, RB, Packers
58. Earnest Graham, RB, Buccaneers: Likely to replace LeGarrette Blount this week, and I could see a double-digit fantasy outing based on the number of touches, especially receiving work. I could also see five carries for 8 yards.
59. Mike Williams, WR, Buccaneers: Yeah, I'm not real impressed.
60. Plaxico Burress, WR, Jets
61. Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons
62. David Nelson, WR, Bills: Not doing a whole lot, but the loss of teammate Donald Jones could get him back on track.
63. Tim Hightower, RB, Redskins: Dropping this guy is a bit premature.
64. Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Raiders: Starting this guy in a 10-team league is a bit premature.
65. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Jets
66. Mike Thomas, WR, Jaguars
67. Lance Moore, WR, Saints
68. Michael Bush, RB, Raiders
69. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Patriots
70. Kevin Walter, WR, Texans: I wouldn't worry about Derrick Mason taking his targets, but the team's tight end depth is outstanding.
71. James Jones, WR, Packers
72. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
73. Robert Meachem, WR, Saints
74. Owen Daniels, TE, Texans
75. Jacoby Ford, WR, Raiders
76. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions
77. Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins
78. Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders
79. Michael Crabtree, WR, 49ers
80. Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants
81. Danario Alexander, WR, Rams
82. Delone Carter, RB, Colts: It's either him or the next guy getting the football, though I still don't expect either to do much with it.
83. Donald Brown, RB, Colts
84. Nate Burleson, WR, Lions: Starting to look like both Burleson and Titus Young are irrelevant.
85. Johnny Knox, WR, Bears: Kind of tough to put up numbers at five targets per game. It might be time to just cease ranking any Bears not named Forte.
86. Stevan Ridley, RB, Patriots
87. Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers: Targets normally turn into production.
88. Jason Avant, WR, Eagles: One would think he'll hold on to the football better this week.
89. Montario Hardesty, RB, Browns: Definitely someone to watch in case Hillis' agent tells him to sit another game.
90. Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers: Scoring pretty regularly, if you're into that sort of thing.
91. Jacoby Jones, WR, Texans
92. Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers
93. Hines Ward, WR, Steelers: Nope, he hasn't retired.
94. Dustin Keller, TE, Jets
95. Bernard Scott, RB, Bengals: Not this week, boys and girls. What pressure he'll have when that 20-carry game finally arrives.
96. Greg Little, WR, Browns
97. Mike Sims-Walker, WR, Rams
98. C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills
99. Ricky Williams, RB, Ravens
100. Jerome Simpson, WR, Bengals
Others to watch: Isaac Redman, RB, Steelers; Davone Bess, WR, Dolphins; Roy Helu, RB, Redskins; Deji Karim, RB, Jaguars; Ben Tate, RB, Texans; Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons

HacheMan · Oct 13, 2011

Lack of targets could hurt MJD's value

Eric Karabell

It's tough to complain too much about Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew, though clearly I'm about to do so. Consider that prior to the season he was, quite possibly, the biggest risk among the first-round running backs. Jones-Drew had a strong but uneven 2010 campaign, offseason surgery on his meniscus and a potentially bad team around him, especially when longtime starting quarterback David Garrard was unceremoniously punted to the side days before the season began.
The Jaguars are predictably losing games and scoring little, their young quarterback is struggling but … Jones-Drew has overcome this to a degree, at least on the surface. He's tied for 11th in standard running back scoring through five weeks (with BenJarvus Green-Ellis), averaging more than 12 points per game, and is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. However, Jones-Drew isn't scoring many touchdowns and isn't catching many passes, which is why he's not the guy we all used to really love. Now we only mostly love him.
I ranked MJD 11th at running back for Week 6 for what really isn't that difficult a game at the Pittsburgh Steelers (they rank 16th against the run), but I see the other rankers have him top 10. The bottom line is this: Is Jones-Drew still a RB1, or has he slipped some?
<OFFER>Perhaps the jury remains out, but I'm awfully surprised the Jaguars haven't found use for Jones-Drew in the passing game, and there's no indication they plan to, either. The lack of touchdowns I see; the team is 30th in total offense this season, though on a per-game basis the Jaguars are last, since the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams just had their bye weeks. I don't see how Jones-Drew can score double-digit touchdowns this way. But with rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert ranking second-to-last among qualified quarterbacks in ESPN's new QBR statistic (only Kerry Collins has been worse), one would think the occasional screen pass would be in order. However, Jones-Drew has only 11 targets all season, none in Week 5, and seven receptions. Gabbert rarely looks in his direction (or to backup Deji Karim) unless it's a handoff, for which MJD ranks third in the league.
We in the fantasy community just love to remind unsuspecting fantasy owners that guys like Michael Turner, Cedric Benson and BenJarvus Green-Ellis are non-factors in the passing game, and how it affects overall value, but that's what Jones-Drew has become. I've seen Gabbert enough to know it's not a coincidence, either. The main reason I don't like placing Turner in my top 10, and haven't drafted him the past two seasons, is that it's always nice when a stud running back can fall back on his receiving ability.
Look, there will be games a defense stacks the line and forces a rookie quarterback to beat them downfield. Look at the New York Jets for example, as their quarterback continues to look like a rookie half the time. But Mark Sanchez has thrown more to Shonn Greene -- and a lot more to LaDainian Tomlinson -- than Jags to MJD: Greene has 12 receptions already, after catching 16 passes a year ago. Jones-Drew nabbed an average of 47 passes his first five seasons in the league, with 62 of them in 2008. Last season he caught only 34 passes in 14 games, but even that is a superior rate to his current one, and I'm sure the knee woes played a role. Jones-Drew might win a rushing title this season, but without the passing game to help, and a Turner-like touchdown total (he'll get double digits), it's time to re-evaluate him as a sure-fire top-10 guy. I don't see him getting there.
Of course, Jones-Drew is not alone among running backs surprisingly being underutilized, though; consider Adrian Peterson has been targeted the same 11 times. Hey, Donovan McNabb, you're missing out on a great weapon! I thought Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Steven Jackson and Tim Hightower would be busier in the passing game, too. And who would have believed Darren Sproles, the current leader in running back targets, would have three times the number of former Saint Reggie Bush? Kind of says a lot about both players, eh?
Here are three situations I'd keep an eye on, and not only for PPR leagues.
• Denver Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno, nearly irrelevant to most, caught all three of his targets in Week 5, turning one magical Tim Tebow screen pass -- that's sarcasm -- into a touchdown. Moreno didn't get a rushing attempt in the contest. Moreno has seven targets all season, after getting 48 for the 2010 season. Perhaps Moreno's receiving work will increase with a lesser pure passer, and he'll earn more touches.
• Joseph Addai wasn't catching many passes, and Delone Carter never caught more than 11 passes in any of his four seasons at Syracuse. Donald Brown, however, can catch the ball, though the Indianapolis Colts really didn't ask him to do it much his first two seasons. Look, I'm not a fan of Brown's, and Curtis Painter has been getting the ball downfield nicely, but I want to see what happens this week. Brown should get opportunity with Addai ailing.
• I'm also not a big defender of Marshawn Lynch, but he did catch 47 passes for the 2008 Buffalo Bills. He's got more catches and targets than Seattle Seahawks teammate Justin Forsett, who's usually counted on for this type of thing. Lynch isn't a top-20 running back, but after catching four passes on six targets in Week 5, I'm interested to see if it's a trend.

HacheMan · Oct 15, 2011

Court Adjourned?

Heading into Week 5, there was no hotter waiver pick up than Stevan Ridley.

The Patriots’ third-round pick was coming off a 10-carry, 97-yard performance, while BenJarvus Green-Ellis, despite turning in what had then been his best game of the season in Week 4, appeared to be fading quickly into the background.

But as so often happens in fantasy football, the script was flipped before owners had time to so much as wonder why their newest addition spelled his rather common first name in such an uncommon fashion.

Ridley carried the ball seven times for just 13 yards in New England’s Week 5 win over the Jets as Green-Ellis shredded Gang Green’s once proud run defense for a career-high 136 yards and two touchdowns.

The Law Firm ran angry, and looked like a man with every intention of holding onto a job he laid claim to in 2010.

Clarity, right?

Of course not. One day after being limited in Patriots practice with a toe injury, Green-Ellis was downgraded to out on Thursday. Few things are more ominous for a player’s status than a mid-week downgrade, and just five days after throwing a wrench into everybody’s plans, the Law Firm instead appears ready to issue Ridley’s ascension a continuance.

So one week after the fact, is Ridley ready for a post-hype breakout?

Unfortunately — or as usual — the answer is not so clear. The rookie will have New England’s power runs all to himself if Green-Elllis cannot go, but will be dealing with Dallas’ No. 1 ranked run defense.

He should also have to contend with something Green-Ellis didn’t in Week 5, an active Danny Woodhead. There’s no question Ridley’s arrow is pointing back up, but at this stage it’s hard to say he’s a surer bet than someone like Kansas City's Jackie Battle.

With Green-Ellis likely to be either out or diminished and six teams on bye this weekend, Ridley will be worth getting into lineups. But even if he shines, there’s no guarantee he won’t again find himself stuck in a rotation when the Patriots come off their bye in Week 8.

NEWS OF THE DAY #2
When both LeGarrette Blount (knee) and Joseph Addai (hamstring) missed practice Wednesday, it suggested neither would be available for Week 6.

When they both sat out again on Thursday, it all but ensured it. Starting in Blount’s place will be Earnest Graham, whom we learned all about on Wednesday.

Spelling Addai will be a combination of rookie Delone Carter and disappointing former first-round pick Donald Brown.

Although Carter appears to have the clearer path to carries, HC Jim Caldwell has hinted Brown will not be forgotten like he was in Weeks 1 through 5. Going up against a surprisingly stout Bengals’ run defense, neither is an inspiring fantasy start this weekend.

NEWS OF THE DAY #3
According to the Denver Post, the Broncos have placed Brandon Lloyd on the trade block. This, of course, is smart. A 30-year-old journeyman whose previous career high for catches was 48 before former HC Josh McDaniels turned him into an out-of-nowhere superstar last season, Lloyd would not be a wise long-term investment for a team turning the page in nearly all phases while making the transition to a run-based offense.

They are best off trading their formerly valueless asset while he still has any. With so many teams deficient at receiver, the interest in his services could prove to be robust heading into Tuesday’s trade deadline.

INJURY QUICK SLANTS
Although Steelers OC Bruce Arians has declared things “back to normal” in his backfield, he’s also intimated Rashard Mendenhall (hamstring) may not be in for his typical compliment of carries this weekend. … Daniel Thomas (hamstring) has guaranteed he will be ready for Miami’s Monday night tilt with the Jets. … Jason Hill (thigh) returned to full practice Thursday and is in no danger of missing Week 6. … Aaron Hernandez (knee) declared himself "healthy and ready to go.” He’s Rotoworld’s eighth-ranked tight end this week. … Lee Evans (ankle) was downgraded to out at Ravens’ practice Thursday. At this point, it’s growing difficult to recommend holding onto him in any format.

FANTASY GAME OF THE WEEK: Dallas at New England
Any time you have either of these two teams, you already have one half of an explosive fantasy matchup. Mix them together, and you have a recipe for real fireworks.

Throw in the fact that Tony Romo, Felix Jones, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Aaron Hernandez are all rounding back to full health, and you have a game that should feature more touchdowns than punts.

BUMMER BYE OF THE WEEK: Broncos
After posting 16.9 fantasy points (per standard scoring rules) in just one half of play after wresting the Broncos’ starting quarterback job away from Kyle Orton last weekend, Tim Tebow will be looking to follow up a 2010 where he averaged 217 passing yards and 66.3 rushing yards in three starts while finding the end zone seven total times. He’ll just be doing so in Week 7. A bummer for all those who rushed out to add him last Sunday, but still something to look forward to.

Horrific mechanics and long-term NFL prospects aside, Tebow represents the kind of midseason fantasy savior that almost never arrives at the quarterback position. It will likely be ugly to watch on television, but the roto results should be hard to argue with.

WELL TIMED BYE OF THE WEEK: Chargers
We’ve already seen one team (the Cowboys) deal with a quartet of injured fantasy studs all at once, and the Chargers would have been the second had they not been on bye this week.

Alas, Ryan Mathews (calf), Mike Tolbert (concussion), Vincent Jackson (hamstring) and Antonio Gates should all be good to go for Week 7, with only Gates representing a real question mark.

FOUR PICKS FOR SUNDAY
Big game: Philadelphia 27, Washington 13. With desperation setting in for the NFL’s “Dream Team,” they’ll ease by a Redskins club that looked anything but crisp in its Week 4 win over the Rams.

Big game II: New England 38, Dallas 21. Dallas has the league’s top ranked run defense, but its pedestrian passing unit won’t be enough to slow down Tom Brady. Not even New England’s pathetic secondary will be enough to keep Dallas in the game.

Upset of the week: 49ers 21, Lions 17. Picking against the Lions didn’t work so well last week, but coming off yet another maddeningly inconsistent performance against the Bears, the explosive but sloppy Motown Maulers will finally get their wake-up call.

The I really don’t have a clue but will pretend I do game: Baltimore 31, Texans 17. The Ravens could not have looked more out-of-sync offensively in their Week 4 win over the Jets, but should be able to dole out some punishment at home against a team missing Andre Johnson and adjusting to life without Mario Williams.

HacheMan · Oct 15, 2011

Matchups: A Lot for a Little

1:00PM ET Games

Philadelphia @ Washington

The good news for Washington's backfield is that it's sure to have success against a Philly defense with no prayer of run stoppage. The quandary, of course, is determining which Redskins back will do the damage. Coach Mike Shanahan refuses to tip his hand as to a Week 6 starter, theoretically making Ryan Torain a high-risk fantasy play. Realistically, though, he's a near-lock to be Washington's lead runner. Finally healthy after entering his first three NFL seasons coming off serious injuries, Torain exhibited the best explosion and cutback ability of his career before the Week 5 bye, ripping off 11 runs of five or more yards on 19 carries at St. Louis, including 16, 20, and 39-yard sprints. Shanahan views Roy Helu as a change-up option only, and probable-former feature back Tim Hightower's 3.48 YPC wasn't cutting it for a coach that so heavily emphasizes per-play statistics. Shanny just had a bye to examine them all thoroughly. Torain needs to be in fantasy lineups because he offers 150-yard, two-score upside against the 30th-ranked run defense. ... Hightower is bench material as the Skins' projected third-down back. ... Helu remains a late-season stash. The rookie may need at least one injury to matter down the road. Hightower already has a balky shoulder and Torain's history suggests he won't last more than a few games, so Helu's break is probably forthcoming.

The Eagles' run defense is fun to bang on because it's a pathetically orchestrated unit, but the pass defense hasn't been much better. No team in football has a worse TD-to-INT ratio against (11:3) and only Miami and Denver have allowed opposing QBs to rack up higher passer ratings. The defense lacks an identity, other than a bunch of innocuous sacks. ... This still doesn't make Rex Grossman a standard-league fantasy option. Rexy has predictably crashed back to earth after a hot start, his yards-per-attempt average dropping in four consecutive games. In his last two -- against terrible Dallas and St. Louis secondaries -- Grossman has completed just 37-of-66 passes (56.1%) for 393 yards (5.95 YPA) and two touchdowns, also committing four turnovers. If Grossman's track record is any indication, the worst is still to come. ... Santana Moss has dominated targets in the Skins' pass-catching corps, seeing 35 through four games with the next closest 10 behind. Moss plays often in the slot, so he'll likely see Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for the majority of Sunday's snaps. DRC has looked lost trying to cover inside receivers this season. ... Fred Davis has slowed down a bit of late, but still ranks as a top-12 tight end in fantasy points per game. The Eagles are annually soft in tight end coverage, and they've repeated that vulnerability when facing capable tight ends this year. In Week 2, Tony Gonzalez touched them up for seven catches, 83 yards, and two touchdowns. In Week 4, San Francisco tight ends combined for seven more grabs, 65 yards, and another score. The Eagles' other three games have come against the Rams, Giants, and Bills.

The Eagles' combination of awful defense and pass-first offense is a dream scenario for owners of Philadelphia skill players. The Eagles can't stop anyone, forcing the offense to stay aggressive and on its toes. DeSean Jackson has capitalized with back-to-back big games (6-171, 5-86-1), leaping to 12th in scoring among fantasy wideouts. D-Jax has scored a touchdown in three of his last four meetings with Washington. ... Jeremy Maclin leads Philadelphia in targets over the past two weeks and is the No. 10 fantasy wide receiver, ahead of Jackson. Since a slow opener, Maclin has three touchdowns in four weeks and is averaging eight catches for 92 yards per game. ... Steve Smith is no longer a playing-time threat to slot receiver Jason Avant, who has at least eight targets and six receptions in each of his last two games. Purely a possession receiver, Avant may not repeat his Week 5 stat line (9-139) for the rest of the season, but he's a worthwhile bye-week WR3 if you're desperate. While the Redskins rank eighth against the pass, the only truly intimidating passing offense they've faced was Dallas in Week 3, when Tony Romo was hindered by a fractured rib.
www.rapsports.com
Michael Vick's four Week 5 interceptions look ugly in the box score, but none of them came on a bad throw. The first occurred when Vick's screen pass attempt was tipped behind the line, and the second on a protection breakdown when Bills OLB Arthur Moats got a clean blind-side path to the quarterback, crashing into Vick just as he threw. The third came on a delayed inside blitz by rookie ILB Kelvin Sheppard, who again hit Vick right as he released. Pick No. 4 resulted from another tip at the line. Protection problems are concerning, but at least two of Vick's INTs were attributable to bad luck. Vick is still the No. 7 fantasy quarterback and an every-week starter. In his last meeting with Redskins DC Jim Haslett's defense, Vick had an all-time performance (20-28, 333, 4-0; 8-80-2). ... LeSean McCoy is the No. 2 overall fantasy running back and No. 5 overall player in fantasy football. The Redskins' defense is shelling out 4.33 yards per rushing attempt, an average sure to rise after dealing with McCoy. There isn't a more dynamic all-purpose runner in the game today.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Redskins 24

Indianapolis @ Cincinnati

A.J. Green was recognized as an every-week rather than spot starter in this space last week, and the playmaking rookie's upward climb continued with 90 yards and a touchdown at Jacksonville. It gets better, because Green may have his most favorable matchup all year in Week 6. Playing the heavy majority snaps on the right side of the offensive formation, Green will square off with Colts LCB Jacob Lacey in a severe mismatch. Lacey was torched in Dwayne Bowe's 7-128-2 game a week ago, consistently losing the physical battle. Lacey is just 5-foot-10, 177, so Green has 34 pounds on him in addition to the obvious height advantage. Look for Colts-Chiefs announcers to hone in on the Green-Lacey matchup during this game. Green is a safe bet to win, and a recommended WR2. Through the season's first five weeks, he's the No. 10 overall fantasy wideout. ... X receiver Jerome Simpson and slot man Andre Caldwell are officially canceling each other out in fantasy football. Neither has topped 50 yards or found pay dirt in the last two weeks.

Cedric Benson's 24-carry, 53-yard game against the Jaguars was discouraging, but a date with the Indy run "defense" should provide a quick remedy. Over the past two weeks, Chiefs and Bucs tailbacks have piled up 333 yards on 60 carries (5.55 YPC) against the Colts, including career special teamer Jackie Battle's breakout game. Benson is getting 21 touches per week, so the volume will be there. If the Bengals' line can open anything close to the massive holes created by K.C.'s front five last week, Benson will have monstrous running lanes, too. ... Jermaine Gresham has scored in back-to-back weeks, but his catch and yardage statistics have been hit or miss. It's conceivable that Gresham will spend much of Week 6 blocking for Benson as the Bengals pursue a run-heavy approach. Against the Colts this year, tight ends have averaged just 41.4 yards per game. Evan Moore, really a slot receiver, is the only tight end to have scored on Indianapolis. ... Andy Dalton is the 20th-ranked fantasy quarterback through five games. While Dalton has shown the ability to deliver passes to Green and, on occasion, Gresham, he's not worth much in fantasy.

Joseph Addai is out with a right hamstring injury, leaving behind Donald Brown and rookie Delone Carter to fight for scraps in an unfavorable matchup. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in run defense, permitting 3.19 yards per carry. While Carter is the preferred fantasy fill-in as the favorite for goal-line work -- he scored from three yards out after Addai's first-quarter injury last week -- neither back offers more than desperate flex appeal. Brown thoroughly outplayed Carter from the second quarter on against Kansas City, gaining 38 yards on eight carries and showing superior short-area explosion. Carter defines plodder, netting 14 yards on ten carries after Addai went down, including the score. Carter has been prone to negative runs because he's a pedestrian talent and doesn't make anyone miss. Expect the duo to finish Sunday with a similar amount of touches. ... Dallas Clark dropped three more passes in Week 5, bringing his season total to six. He only has 14 receptions. Clark has often looked like the worst player on the field this year, getting demolished as a blocker and hurting his team more often than not in the passing game.

The Bengals have faced the worst slate of quarterbacks in the league to date, so it's fair to take their No. 3 pass defense and No. 1 total defense rankings with grains of salt. It's still enough to question whether Indy will have passing success in Curtis Painter's first start against an above league-average defense. While Painter has shown NFL-caliber arm strength and a willingness to stand tall in the pocket, he's been incredibly inconsistent quarter-to-quarter. In Week 4, Painter's stats were inflated by over 120 yards of Pierre Garcon's after-catch runs. In Week 5, Painter went in the tank after a big first half, completing 3-of-10 attempts for 40 yards in the final two quarters against Kansas City. We'll learn a lot more about Curtis Painter this week. ... The Colts' target distribution since Painter replaced Kerry Collins: Garcon 16, Reggie Wayne 15, Clark 9, Austin Collie 9. ... Garcon has been a drop- and error-prone receiver in the past, but his production and chemistry with Painter can't be ignored. Garcon also has the best matchup of any Colts wideout this week, squaring off with aging LCB Nate Clements. Wayne will draw RCB Leon Hall for most of this game. Hall has limited Wayne to lines of 3-34-0 and 5-48-0 in their last two meetings.

Score Prediction: Bengals 20, Colts 14

Carolina @ Atlanta

Carolina-Atlanta has this week's second highest over/under, behind only Cowboys-Patriots. Fire up your Panthers and Falcons. ... Cam Newton ranks third among QBs in fantasy scoring, and hasn't fallen beneath the No. 5 spot all year. He's consistent. OC Rob Chudzinski announced Monday that Newton would remain Carolina's goal-line back going forward, so he'll continue to be a confident weekly bet for rushing touchdowns. Through five games, Newton has 13 carries inside opposing 10-yard lines. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have combined for just three. ... The No. 3-ranked receiver behind only Wes Welker and Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith has proven his mettle with at least 13.9 fantasy points in 4-of-5 games. Smith matches up most often with right corners and will see RCB Dunta Robinson for much of this game. According to Pro Football Focus, Robinson has allowed 23-of-28 passes to be completed against him (82.1%) this year, for 373 yards and two TDs. It's a great matchup for Smith. ... With a touchdown in three straight games, Greg Olsen is a top-eight scorer at tight end and the possession complement to Smith's deep threat. Atlanta gave up six catches for 89 yards to Packers tight ends last Sunday night.

Brandon LaFell had a touchdown overturned on replay in Week 5, but finished with one catch for 20 yards on two targets. He played a season-low 27 snaps (44.3%). Legedu Naanee played 50 snaps (82%), catching four balls for 63 yards. LaFell could be a bye-week WR3 if he were getting more playing time, but until something changes he's a WR5/6. ... While DeAngelo Williams did well to break two tackles after an option pitch from Newton for a 69-yard touchdown in Week 5 -- his first score of the year -- little has changed in Carolina's M.I.A. backfield. Williams still hasn't exceeded 13 touches in any game this season, and committee partner Jonathan Stewart only got seven last week. Up next is Atlanta's eighth-ranked run defense, a unit surrendering just 3.48 yards per carry. With DT Jonathan Babineaux and SLB Stephen Nicholas back from injuries last Sunday night, the Falcons held James Starks and Ryan Grant to 58 yards on 19 attempts (3.05 YPC), without a score. Williams and Stewart are flex options only. They just don't get the rock enough.

Harry Douglas is the probable starter in place of Julio Jones (hamstring), but Tony Gonzalez might be the top fantasy beneficiary. Jones has primarily been a deep threat so far. Look for Roddy White to run few longer routes, opening up underneath stuff for Gonzo. The Panthers just got destroyed by Jimmy Graham (8-129). Gonzo is the No. 3 fantasy tight end and an every-week starter. ... White still projects as a target monster with Jones out of the lineup. Gregg Rosenthal and Chris Wesseling rank Roddy seventh among fantasy wideouts for Week 6. ... This is a great matchup for Michael Turner to break off a long run or two and score multiple touchdowns. Carolina ranks 27th against the run, gift-wrapping 4.86 yards per carry. Turner faces the Lions and Colts after this, but it's going to be sell-high time soon. ... Matt Ryan has been a major fantasy disappointment, and he missed way too many open downfield throws in last week's loss to Green Bay. He's still a strong low-end QB1 play against a Panthers defense allowing a league-high 8.7 yards per pass attempt.

Score Prediction: Panthers 27, Falcons 24


St. Louis @ Green Bay

Coach Mike McCarthy's hot-hand approach will continue to make starting Packers running backs a dangerous proposition until one of the top two gets hurt. But this matchup presents an opportunity for the Pack to really lean on the run. In a home game against the lifeless, 0-4 Rams, Green Bay should grab a quick lead and pound St. Louis' last-ranked run defense into submission. James Starks has outplayed Ryan Grant in terms of yards per carry and total yards in all but one game this year, and remains the backfield's heavy favorite for production. Starks averages 14 touches a game and 4.94 yards per play. Grant is at 11 touches with a 4.54-yard average. I'd consider Starks a solid bye-week RB2. Grant is more of a dice-roll flex play because he's less likely to show a hot hand early as the inferior runner. ... Green Bay is dealing with a couple of injuries at tackle, most notably LT Chad Clifton's severely strained hamstring. Not to worry: The Packers scored on five of their final seven possessions after Clifton went down in Week 5, and the Rams rank 29th in the league in sacks. It's not a situation on which St. Louis will be able to capitalize.

The prospect of a run-heavy evolution obviously shouldn't deter owners from trotting out Packers passing-game members. The Rams have lost each of their top three corners to I.R. and already swapped out one starting safety. They have no prayer of stopping Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers leads all QBs in fantasy points and has a 20:2 TD-to-INT ratio in his last five home games, including two rushing scores. ... Greg Jennings has been better than I anticipated entering the season because he's running a more diverse route tree than ever before. He leads Green Bay in targets and is the fifth-ranked fantasy wideout through five weeks. ... Jermichael Finley has just one big game out of five, but you can't sit his week-winning upside. He's the No. 4 fantasy tight end. ... In his last ten games, Jordy Nelson has six touchdowns and is averaging five catches for 76 yards. He also plays on the same side as Rams LCB Justin King, who gave up Ravens rookie Torrey Smith's 5-152-3 line a few weeks back. ... James Jones has scored in back-to-back games, overtaking Donald Driver for the Packers' third receiver role. He's still only played 46.4% of the offensive snaps and ranked fourth on the team in targets during the two-week span. Rodgers will throw to Jones if he's open Sunday, but the numbers say his Week 5 stats are due for major regression.

Josh McDaniels has a proven enough track record that I'm confident the Rams' offense will pick it up in the season's second half. I just don't have any faith that it'll start at Green Bay. The Packers rank third in the league in run defense and fixed their pass defense in Week 5, holding Matt Ryan to season lows in yards (167) and rating (55.1), while picking him off twice. It was just a matter of time before the Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams-led secondary and Clay Matthews-keyed pass rush got things together. Sam Bradford ranks 29th in fantasy quarterback scoring, and St. Louis doesn't have a wideout in the top 50. Lance Kendricks is 40th among tight ends. Avoid this passing game until further notice. ... I've seen some Week 6 hype on Danario Alexander, from whom the Rams are beginning to remove the training wheels. Alexander played 55-of-75 snaps just before the Week 5 bye, good for easily a career-high in snap percentage (73.3%). If there is a St. Louis receiver to use, banking on throw-happy comeback mode, it's Alexander. ... The Rams won't stop Rodgers, but they can try to keep him off the field by saddling up Steven Jackson. S-Jax has shown that there's still some life in his overused legs by averaging 5.39 yards per carry in three appearances this season.

Score Prediction: Packers 42, Rams 17

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh

Despite essentially signing off the street last week and practicing only three times before starting against the Titans, Steelers LT Max Starks proved game-ready. He played all 66 snaps in Week 5, making an obvious impact in the run game and providing Ben Roethlisberger with the best pass protection Pittsburgh's previously beleaguered quarterback has experienced all year. Big Ben took advantage, throwing for five touchdowns against a Tennessee defense that entered the game as a top-five unit. Jacksonville's pass defense is banged up with RCB Derek Cox nursing a lingering groin strain and every-down SLB Daryl Smith likely out with a concussion. Smith is the Jags' best cover 'backer. In Roethlisberger's last two meetings with Jack Del Rio's defense, he's piled up a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, and the Jaguars had better personnel then. A top-11 QB in fantasy scoring again, Big Ben is a quality bye-week starter. ... If you're crunched at tight end and seeking a one-week sleeper, Heath Miller is your man. In the past month, the Jags' Cover 2 has been gutted for four touchdowns by tight ends, in addition to an 8.5-catch, 88-yard average. Miller shouldn't have to block as often as usual, either, because Jacksonville is tied for 29th in the league in sacks.

While an improved passing game can only help Hines Ward, resist chasing his two Week 5 touchdowns. They were Ward's first and second of the season, and second and third in the 35-year-old's last 12 games. Ward is more likely to go back in the tank than rediscover pay dirt this week. ... Mike Wallace is on pace to finish as a top-five fantasy receiver for the second straight season, averaging 108.8 yards a week with three touchdowns in his last four games. The Jags can't contain 60 Minutes. ... Antonio Brown continued to show that he's ahead of Emmanuel Sanders versus Tennessee, seeing four targets to Sanders' three and getting three touches to Sanders' none. Sanders played more snaps than Brown, however, and neither is even a 33% player at this point. They're WR5s until something changes. ... After sitting out Week 5 with a hamstring pull, Rashard Mendenhall is practicing fully and off the injury report. While Mendenhall is likely to lead Pittsburgh's backfield in touches this week, there is buzz in Pittsburgh that he may not immediately return to an every-down back role. The Jaguars' defensive strength is rush defense, ranking 10th in the league and surrendering 3.66 YPC. Think of Mendenhall as more of a low-end RB2 in Week 6. Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer are change-of-pace options only.

The Steelers have struggled on offense and in run defense this season, but their lone constant has been a shutdown pass defense. 2010 Defensive POY Troy Polamalu has remained the NFL's best safety, and RCB Ike Taylor hasn't allowed a reception of longer than 11 yards all year. Per Pro Football Focus, Taylor was targeted seven times by the Titans last week. He gave up one seven-yard catch. ... In other words, all members of the Jags' passing game are hands off against the league's No. 1 pass defense. That includes Mike Thomas, who figures to see lots of Taylor's coverage. ... Marcedes Lewis hasn't scored a touchdown or topped 38 yards in any week. He can safely expect to spend this game on the line blocking OLB LaMarr Woodley and LE Ziggy Hood. ... The lone Jaguar worth Week 6 fantasy consideration is Maurice Jones-Drew, if only because he gets so many touches (20.6 per-game average). MJD does carry risk, though. Pittsburgh held the Tennessee ground game to 66 yards and 3.67 YPC last week, as RE Brett Keisel returned from a knee injury. Jacksonville's offense will struggle to move the ball, and for MJD's sake I'd worry that the Jaguars might fall behind early. They're overmatched in this contest.

Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Jaguars 10

Buffalo @ NY Giants

Entering Week 5, Eli Manning appeared to have his season on track with an 8-1 TD-to-INT ratio and 66.7 completion rate in his previous three games. As is customary whenever Eli appears to turn a corner, a rocky, four-turnover game ensued in a home date with Seattle. Eli still turned in a big fantasy day, of course, throwing for 420 yards and three TDs to give him 11 scores in a month. While a ground-oriented approach is likely against a Bills defense far more susceptible to the run than Seattle's, Eli has statistically "earned" a QB1 start against Buffalo's No. 26 pass defense. Ranked sixth among fantasy passers, Eli is capitalizing on the emergence of playmaking slot man Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks' return to health. ... Speaking of Cruz, the Giants aren't using him as a traditional slot receiver. Whereas most slot men run short, possession routes, Cruz has been green-lighted for goes and flies from the inside receiver spot. It's a way for OC Kevin Gilbride to split the difference. Cruz is a natural in the vertical passing game, and the spot at which he lines up makes him especially deceptive to defenses. With three touchdowns and a 123-yard average since Week 2, Cruz needs to stay in fantasy lineups. He has 20 targets in his last two games, and a skill set that perfectly fits his offense. The Giants butter their bread with downfield shots.

Hakeem Nicks has a team-high 26 targets since Week 2, catching fire with 14 grabs for 227 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. Nicks runs most of his routes against right corners, so he'll face off with RCB Leodis McKelvin for the majority of Sunday's snaps. McKelvin is the Bills' pass-coverage Achilles' heel. ... Mario Manningham played more Week 5 downs than Cruz, but saw fewer targets and has yet to score a touchdown or top 56 yards in a game. Mario will eventually break out, but is still in "prove-it" mode. He's a good buy-low target. ... Resist chasing TE Jake Ballard's red-zone scores from Weeks 4 and 5. Ballard is essentially a sixth lineman at 6-foot-6, 275, and has blocked on more plays than he's ran pass routes in 4-of-5 games. ... Coach Tom Coughlin expressed regret about his team's pass-happy start to the year, preferring to get back to running the football. “That is philosophically what I hold to and believe in,” Coughlin said Monday. “I understand that you wouldn’t be able to sense it at this point.” The Bills are a good place to start, seeing as they rank 29th against the run, are serving up 5.54 yards per carry, and may be without Pro Bowl NT Kyle Williams (ankle) on Sunday. Brandon Jacobs will likely be a non-factor due to persistent knee swelling, so look for 25 or more touches from Ahmad Bradshaw as a legit RB1.

Just like last year, the Buffalo passing game is screeching to a halt after a fast beginning. No Bills wideout has topped 58 yards in the last two games, and practice squad-type Naaman Roosevelt led the group with 41 yards in Week 5. It's a talent issue. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't have the arm power to consistently connect outside the hashes, and it's going to be especially apparent as wind picks up in late October through December. In his last two games, Fitzpatrick has one touchdown, a 189-yard average, and measly 6.20 YPA. Expect another conservative, short passing attack against a Giants defense that leads the NFL in sacks. New York has only allowed five scoring passes in five games. Fitzpatrick is a QB2, but it was fun while it lasted. ... Stevie Johnson should still pick it up because he's one of the league's better route runners, keeping defensive backs on their heels and showing fearlessness over the middle. Use him against the Giants. ... David Nelson is expected to move to X receiver now that deep threat Donald Jones (high ankle sprain) is out 4-6 weeks. Nelson ran a 4.45 forty coming out of Florida, so he's got enough long speed to excel on the perimeter. But Fitzpatrick doesn't have enough arm to consistently get the football out wide, and Nelson hasn't played this position since college. He's a risky, if potentially high-reward WR3 gamble this week.

Roosevelt has poor man's Davone Bess appeal taking over in the slot, but one of the issues that plagued Nelson inside was the "mouths-to-feed" effect. Brad Smith and C.J. Spiller also see snaps at inside receiver, and the members of Buffalo's constant five-wideout sets aren't going to deliver much production when Fitzpatrick can't top 200 passing yards in a game. Five inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter than Nelson, Roosevelt doesn't have the red-zone chops or athleticism of his slot-receiver predecessor. He's a low-ceiling fantasy prospect. ... While the Giants' front four can still get to the quarterback, they've shown major vulnerability in run defense without LE Justin Tuck (neck, groin). With Tuck sidelined since Week 3, the G-Men have been exposed for four rushing touchdowns and 272 yards on 49 carries (5.55 YPC). Tuck won't play Sunday, which is excellent news for No. 1 overall fantasy back Fred Jackson's matchup. If coach Chan Gailey knows what's best for his team -- and he usually does -- he'll lean heavily on Jackson against the Giants.

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Bills 24


San Francisco @ Detroit

If San Francisco's defense didn't get enough credit during the season's first month, it should after last Sunday's dismantling of the Tampa offense. Routing what is supposed to be a more talented team 48-3, the Niners took Tampa Bay's rushing attack out of the game, rendering the offense one-dimensional. The 49ers have a top-four defense versus the run, and remain the only team that has yet to allow a rushing score. While Jahvid Best did well to catapult his yards-per-carry average from 3.17 to 4.90 with last week's 12-163-1 rushing line against the Bears, Best is unlikely to have near the same kind of success in Week 6. He remains a far better bet in PPR leagues than standard settings. ... If the Lions are going to pour on points like they so often do, it will have to be through the air. Whereas the 49ers rank fourth against the run, they're a vulnerable 23rd in pass defense. Look for Matthew Stafford to get back to his usual 40 pass attempts in this matchup. With multiple TDs in every game so far, Stafford is the No. 5 quarterback in fantasy football. ... Nate Burleson and Titus Young are splitting production as the Nos. 4 and 5 options in Detroit's passing game. Neither receiver has scored or topped 51 receiving yards since Week 2.

Calvin Johnson's streak of two-touchdown games ended against Chicago last Monday night, but Megatron reaffirmed his dominance with a season-high 130 yards. The Bears tried shadowing him with usual RCB Charles Tillman and safety help, but Johnson ripped the lid off Chicago's Cover-2 defense for an early 73-yard scoring bomb and proceeded to whip Tillman for four more catches and 57 yards on comebacks and slants. There's little telling how San Francisco could stop him. In their last four games, the 49ers are allowing an average of six catches for 93 yards with three touchdowns to opposing No. 1 receivers. And none of them was as good as Megatron. ... Brandon Pettigrew has formally passed Burleson as Detroit's No. 2 passing-game option, and that's great news for the tight end's fantasy value. Stafford's target distribution over the past three weeks: Megatron 30, Pettigrew 27, Best 19, Young 17, Burleson 10. Pettigrew is an every-week starter until he slows down, and will likely play an even bigger passing-game role with Tony Scheffler (concussion) out in Week 6. If the target numbers hold, Burleson will quickly become droppable.

The Lions have fielded one of the league's top pass defenses this year, but are incredibly banged up at safety, and it's showing up in the box score. Over the past three weeks, tight ends have averaged seven catches for 68 yards a game against Detroit, with three touchdowns. This is good news for a 49ers offense featuring tight ends without Braylon Edwards (knee) and Josh Morgan (leg). Vernon Davis is sixth in fantasy scoring at his position. ... Executing the turnover-free, game-manager role, Alex Smith has a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio in his last two games. He benefited from throw-heavy comeback mode in Week 4 and a listless Bucs pass defense last Sunday. But it's a talent issue with Smith, not something good coaching can cure. History shows that Smith promptly tanks whenever he appears to have found a groove. Boasting a dominant front four and aggressive press corners, the Lions have allowed the NFL's fourth fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth fewest passing touchdowns among teams that have played five games. I'd much prefer to bet against Alex Smith than on him in a road matchup with the Lions.

Frank Gore avoided the injury report for the first time since Week 3, suggesting he's as healthy as he's been all season. You wouldn't know Gore was hampered at all based on his Weeks 4-5 stats. After managing an unsettling 2.51 yards per carry in his first three games, Gore has soared to 7.20 in the last two, including a pair of touchdowns. Detroit's defensive weakness is against the run, ranking 18th in rush defense and permitting 4.78 YPC. While rookie Kendall Hunter will stay involved because he's San Francisco's most productive per-play back (6.27 per-touch average to Gore's 4.48), it will in a limited, change-of-pace role. Gore's carries are on the rise, and he's an RB1 again. ... Michael Crabtree played only 21-of-58 snaps (36.2%) in Week 5, ostensibly because the 49ers opted to manage his foot in a game they led 24-3 at halftime and won 48-3. The Niners used a heavy receiver rotation, but won't have the luxury in what's sure to be a closer affair against the undefeated Lions, and because Josh Morgan was placed on injured reserve this week. Don't hold last week's 2-36-0 stat line against Crabtree. He's a quality bye-week WR3 start.

Score Prediction: Lions 23, 49ers 17

4:05PM ET Games

Cleveland @ Oakland

NFL teams often use byes as evaluation periods; a time to watch tape and investigate personnel usage. During their off week, Browns coaches determined that Greg Little deserves to be a featured player on offense. Pat Shurmur announced Monday that Little has been promoted to an every-down receiver, starting at X on early downs and kicking to the slot in three-wide sets. It's usage similar to Brandon Marshall's in Miami and Vincent Jackson's in San Diego. The Browns rank second in pass attempts per game, yet somehow don't have a single receiver on pace for 800 yards. They're begging for Little to step up, and he has a Week 6 matchup to capitalize. The "X" in Cleveland's offense most often matches up with RCBs, where the Raiders will start lanky, thin-legged rookie Demarcus Van Dyke. Built like a running back at 6'3/231, Little's defining traits are physicality and run-after-catch skills. He'll run through Van Dyke on short grabs, setting up a big play down the seam. ... Shurmur also talked up Evan Moore, but it's a wait-and-see week for the situational tight end. Moore averaged 11.5 snaps in Cleveland's first four games, mostly because he can't block. At least Little has been a factor in the base offense before. Moore never was, and may still not be.

Mohamed Massaquoi is the Browns' Z receiver, most often aligning to the formation's right side. He'll draw Raiders top CB Stanford Routt for the majority of snaps. ... Ben Watson owners need to worry that Moore's increased role will come at the expense of Cleveland's more oft-used tight end. Watson ranks a pedestrian 13th in fantasy tight end points per game, and his targets are likely to decline. ... Shurmur was vehement this week when declaring Peyton Hillis the Browns' feature back, despite a 15:12 timeshare with Montario Hardesty in Week 4, before the bye. "Peyton Hillis is going to get the bulk of the carries," said Shurmur. "I can tell you that.'' After four drops in the pre-off week game, Hardesty is headed back to a complementary role, making him a fantasy non-factor barring injury to the starter. Likely to flirt with 20 touches, Hillis will square off with a Raiders defense that ranks 22nd against the run and permits 5.25 YPC. ... Colt McCoy is a lowly 18th in per-game QB scoring, behind the likes of Jason Campbell and Mark Sanchez. It's a bad long-term sign considering Cleveland's pass-happy offense. McCoy just doesn't have the talent to capitalize.

The Browns opened the season defending the run well, before allowing Chris Johnson's year-best game prior to the bye. Cleveland has a talented front seven, and I suspect this will end up as a league-average run defense at worst. It's just probably not good enough to stop Darren McFadden. Run DMC leads the NFL in rushing, 20-yard runs, and 40-yard runs. Among fantasy backs, only Fred Jackson has more points. ... The Raiders' receiver situation has become a quandary, with box scores deceptively indicating that Darrius Heyward-Bey is the No. 1 option. DHB has preyed on Patriots reserve CB Kyle Arrington and Texans RCB Jason Allen's huge cushion the past two weeks, while Denarius Moore contended with Johnathan Joseph and Devin McCourty. Browns CB Joe Haden's (knee) status could turn the tide this week. Haden has the ability to take receivers out of games, and a Sporting News report Thursday indicated that a knee sprain will keep the shutdown corner out of Week 6. Defenses still clearly view Moore as the most dangerous Oakland wideout, even if Heyward-Bey has better recent numbers. Haden's absence is a big plus for Moore. I'd want to start him this week. ... Jacoby Ford has settled in as a passing down-only slot receiver, playing just 40.5% of the snaps. He isn't a fantasy option on that kind of usage. ... Cleveland is a top-four team in pass defense. While that has a lot to do with Haden's coverage, it's hard to imagine using Jason Campbell in a standard league. He's 17th among quarterbacks in points per game.

Score Prediction: Raiders 24, Browns 23

Houston @ Baltimore

The Raiders sold out to stop the Texans' running game in Week 5, but Arian Foster reconfirmed both his health and difference-making versatility with a 184-total yard effort, 116 coming via the receiving game. While Baltimore leads the AFC in run defense, it's worth remembering that Foster touched up a similar-looking Ravens unit for 125 total yards and 5.0 YPC in Week 14 last season. Foster has taken on a bigger role in the passing game with Andre Johnson (hamstring) sidelined, and it will buoy his fantasy stats even against tough defenses. He is matchup-proof. ... Logically, it makes little sense that Matt Schaub would throw for a season-high 403 yards against Oakland, playing without his top wide receiver. Schaub benefited from a year-most 51 attempts, of course, and ultimately performed poorly in the 25-20 home loss, throwing two interceptions and completing 47.1% of his passes. The Ravens have a top-eight pass defense, have allowed just three passing touchdowns in four games, and their defense will be fresh coming off a bye. Schaub is a desperation fantasy option only this week. He's going to be under heavy duress on Sunday.

Usually a sixth lineman, Joel Dreessen flashed with a 5-112-1 line against the Raiders. Dreessen entered Week 5 without a game over 21 yards, and will likely resume blocking against a superior Baltimore pass rush. .... Shaping up as no more than a straight-line speedster, Jacoby Jones flunked his Week 5 audition to replace Johnson. Despite facing rookie CB Demarcus Van Dyke for the entire game, Jones managed one catch on 11 targets and was also flagged for a false start. Jones couldn't have asked for a more favorable matchup; it was Van Dyke's first career start. Throw the towel in on Jacoby Jones. Tuesday's Derrick Mason trade suggests the Texans are considering it. ... Kevin Walter is at least an efficient player, securing five of his six Week 5 targets for 81 yards and a score. Walter lacks dynamic ability, but beat Raiders top CB Stanford Routt to make a highlight-reel 41-yard reception in the fourth quarter and is more deserving of a fill-in WR3 spot than Jones at this point. ... Owen Daniels was Schaub's go-to guy against Oakland, leading Houston in targets and catches. Daniels had 91 yards in the aforementioned 2010 matchup with Baltimore and is the lone must-start Texans pass catcher. With coverage liability Bernard Pollard starting for Tom Zbikowski (concussion) at strong safety, the Ravens will be vulnerable to Daniels over the middle.

The change in offensive mindset just hasn't been there to support Joe Flacco's elusive breakout season. The Ravens are intent on executing a balanced attack, ranking 17th in pass attempts per game and eighth in runs. Until something changes, Flacco will remain a low-end QB1. He's not very appealing against Houston's No. 6 pass defense. ... The Texans have begun assigning Johnathan Joseph to "shadow" No. 1 wideouts, and he held Denarius Moore catch-less last week after snapping Mike Wallace's consecutive 100-yard games streak in Week 4. It's a concern for Anquan Boldin, who's averaging an unremarkable four catches for 49.3 scoreless yards in his last three games. ... Lee Evans (ankle) is expected to miss Week 6 after a downgrade from limited practice Wednesday to no practice on Thursday and Friday. Torrey Smith now appears likely to draw another start. While this matchup projects as favorable against Texans RCB Jason Allen, Smith didn't exactly inspire confidence with one catch for one yard in his last game. It's a situation to avoid, and further reason to nix Flacco as a bye-week starter if possible.

The Ravens had an early bye, so the best way to tell the story on Ray Rice is by assessing his performance on a per-game basis. Only Fred Jackson has scored more fantasy points per week, and Rice is averaging 20.5 touches for 135 total yards and a touchdown per game. The Texans give up 4.81 yards per carry, so this is a favorable matchup to boot. ... Ed Dickson remains the Ravens' best tight end bet, but Houston has not been generous to the position this season. Jimmy Graham is the only tight end to score on them, and Houston is allowing an average of just 2.4 catches for 32.2 yards to opposing TEs. Dickson and Dennis Pitta are best left on fantasy benches in Week 6.

Score Prediction: Ravens 23, Texans 20

4:15PM ET Games

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

The Bucs are getting obliterated by the pass, a dangerous proposition with Drew Brees coming to town. Tampa can't tackle or cover in the secondary, and over the past two weeks has allowed the dregs of NFL passers (Curtis Painter, Alex Smith) to combine for a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio. Tampa's interior pass rush will be severely impacted by DT Gerald McCoy's high ankle sprain, leaving Brees with a clean pocket. Ranked No. 4 in fantasy QB scoring, Brees is an obvious must-start. ... McCoy's loss will also be felt in run defense, where he was particularly effective early this year. The Bucs ranked 23rd against the run, yielding 4.50 YPC even with McCoy in the lineup, so the bottom now threatens to fall out. Coach Raheem Morris also expressed concern this week with the status of MLB Mason Foster (ankle). Coming off a game in which he led all Saints backs in touches, Darren Sproles is a quality flex start regardless of format. He's averaging 89.8 combined rushing and receiving yards per week. ... Mark Ingram has reached pay dirt in two of his last three games and racked up five more red-zone touches in Week 5, bringing his season total to a team-high 19. Sproles is second with 10, and Pierre Thomas received three last week to give him seven on the year. ... FB Jed Collins vultured another one-yard touchdown against Carolina, but Ingram had one of his own. Collins has three offensive touches all season. Flukily, two have gone for scores.

A healthy, full-time receiver again, Marques Colston played a team-high 48 snaps in Week 5 and should be stapled into lineups as a WR2/3 going forward. In Colston's last four games against the Bucs, he's averaged a rock-solid six catches for 78 yards. ... Lance Moore and Devery Henderson have lost the most value among Saints wideouts with Colston back. Coming off a scoreless, 30-yard game, Moore has a 43.4 snap percentage in the last two weeks. He's a total roll of the dice as a WR3. ... Henderson is waiver-wire material. He played less than Moore against the Panthers and has one catch on two targets since Week 3. ... Robert Meachem (second to only Colston in Week 5 snaps) is now locked in as the Saints' No. 2 wide receiver, although he's really a No. 3 or 4 passing-game option, behind Jimmy Graham, Colston, and arguably Sproles. Meachem still has at least four catches in every game this year and is a much better week-to-week investment than Moore and Henderson. ... Graham has lapped the field as the most dangerous tight end on the planet, and is the position's new league leader in fantasy scoring. His targets have actually risen since Colston returned. Graham averaged seven a game in Weeks 1-3, but has 26 in Weeks 4-5.

The Bucs' offense has taken an ugly step back this season, and the loss of LeGarrette Blount to a knee injury will render it one-dimensional. Expected fill-in Earnest Graham is a 31-year-old plodder whose solid recent per-carry averages have been inflated by draw plays and small sample sizes as a third-down back. The good news is Graham should receive 15-18 touches, and New Orleans' defense permits 5.22 YPC. I'd overlook Graham in non-PPR leagues, but he's worth a flex start in PPR. Even when Blount was in the lineup, Graham ranked fourth among all tailbacks in receptions. ... I'm tempted to say Josh Freeman is a sneaky bye-week QB1, if only because Tampa may have to lean heavily on the pass in a potential shootout. That would also bode well for early-year fantasy bust Mike Williams. Neither player should inspire much fantasy confidence, though. ... The Saints struggle against tight ends on a weekly basis because SS Roman Harper can't cover, but they still managed to hold Kellen Winslow under 50 yards and out of the end zone in two 2010 meetings. Again, Winslow is an uninspiring fantasy option because he's lost so much playmaking ability after six career knee surgeries. ... Bucs slot receiver Preston Parker has been productive only against zone defenses this year, and the Saints play a lot of man. Parker isn't a Week 6 fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Saints 31, Bucs 20

Dallas @ New England

Cowboys-Pats has this week's highest over/under at 55.5 points, which is a nice tiebreaker if you're deciding whether to play guys like Felix Jones and Rob Gronkowski. Start 'em. ... Dallas should emerge from its welcomed Week 5 bye firing on all cylinders. At full strength, the Cowboys boast a lethal amount of weaponry, and New England not only surrenders points in truckloads with the league's last-ranked defense, it forces opponents to stay aggressive because no one generates more yardage than the Pats' No. 1-ranked offense. Start Tony Romo. ... Miles Austin practiced fully all week and should be at or near 100-percent health. Wesseling and Rosenthal have Austin eighth among Week 6 fantasy receivers. ... Wesseling and Rosenthal are slightly lower on Dez Bryant (No. 10), I suspect because Austin is a better bet for receptions. I'd consider Bryant just as good a bet for yards and the favorite for touchdowns. Like Austin, Bryant (quad) is back to full strength.

Jones is going to get on a roll shortly. He faces a Patriots defense in Week 6 that surrenders 4.59 yards per carry, followed by the Rams (32nd in run defense) and Eagles (most fantasy points allowed to running backs). If Jones is still available on the trade market, now is the time to strike a deal. He benefited from the bye week, nursing his previously dislocated shoulder back to full health and has been the front-runner for goal-line carries in Dallas' backfield all season. ... Can Romo and the Cowboys' passing attack support three big-time fantasy pass catchers? The guess here is yes, and particularly so in Week 6 considering the opponent and high-scoring game projection. In points per week, Jason Witten is the No. 4 overall fantasy tight end. He should be locked into lineups.

Long a believer in letting week-to-week matchups dictate backfield distribution, coach Bill Belichick leaned on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in Week 5 against a Jets defense selling its soul to slow Tom Brady. According to Pro Football Focus, Rex Ryan's unit used six or more DBs on 73% of snaps, often even employing seven in a rare 3-1-7 alignment. Green-Ellis capitalized with career-highs in touches (28) and yards (149), scoring twice. It's just not fair to call this a sign of things to come, mostly because the Jets' approach didn't work; Brady threw for 321 yards and averaged 9.73 yards per attempt in New England's 30-21 win. Green-Ellis is still the safest bet for weekly carries and goal-line scores among Patriots backs. Four of Law Firm's five touchdowns have come inside the five-yard line, and Belichick trusts him more than Stevan Ridley in pass protection, even if Ridley is a better pass catcher. ... While BJGE is a strong play in a likely shootout, Ridley has resumed risky flex status as a No. 2/3 back in a game that probably won't produce enough rushing success from New England to support two fantasy runners. Keyed by emerging superstar ILB Sean Lee, the Cowboys rank No. 1 against the run and are surrendering a league-low 3.13 yards per carry.

Green-Ellis did show up on the injury report with a toe ailment, believed to have occurred in practice Wednesday. He missed Thursday's workout entirely, but returned Friday. It's still a situation to monitor, because Ridley would leap up the backfield pecking order were Green-Ellis to miss the game. At this point, it doesn’t look like he will. ... Danny Woodhead is supposed to return from a multi-week ankle injury, but should be viewed as a fantasy non-factor, both independently and as a threat to others' touches. There's simply no way to tell whether Woodhead will have a prominent role, or whether he's even going to play. ... It might seem weird, but Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are both top-10 fantasy tight end options in Week 6. Remember, Gronk and Hernandez ranked Nos. 2 and 3 on the team in targets prior to the latter's knee injury. Gronkowski remains New England's best bet for red-zone receiving touchdowns. Hernandez racks up catches all over the field and has monster PPR potential. ... Cowboys slot CB Orlando Scandrick should be no match for Wes Welker in the slot. An incredibly overrated (and overpaid) player, Scandrick doesn't have the lateral athleticism to slow Welker's roll. ... Chad Ochocinco is waiver fodder. ... Deion Branch is worth a WR3 gamble because the Pats offer enough passing volume and efficiency to feed at least three viable fantasy starts on a weekly basis. In this kind of a game, they certainly should be able to support four.

Extra Point: On NFL Network Playbook Thursday night, Greg Cosell of NFL Films pointed out that Rob Ryan’s Cleveland defense double teamed both Welker and Branch on virtually every snap in last year’s November 7 upset of the Patriots. Ryan used a linebacker to hit Gronkowski whenever he broke from the line of scrimmage to run a route. Welker finished with 36 yards on four catches, Gronk four receptions for 47 yards, and Branch 21 yards on two grabs. Hernandez was the big beneficiary of Ryan’s approach, leading the Patriots in receptions (5) and receiving yards (48), and scoring twice in New England’s 34-14 defeat. Ryan, of course, is now the Cowboys’ defensive coordinator.

Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Cowboys 30

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota @ Chicago

Only two Week 6 games have less projected scoring than Vikes-Bears in the ugliest Sunday Night Football matchup to date. Defense should dominate this game. The premier fantasy play, of course, is Adrian Peterson. In their last four games, opposing tailbacks have gutted the overrated Chicago defense for 516 yards on 90 carries (5.73 YPC), and the Bears have allowed three rushing scores. It can't help that Chicago will be without starting NT Matt Toeaina (knee). The Vikings need to control this game on the ground. ... Wide deceiver Bernard Berrian is expected back in the lineup after being held out of last week's win for missing team meetings. Berrian's return cancels out Devin Aromashodu's fantasy appeal despite an 81-yard Week 5 game. ... Molasses Michael Jenkins has 33 yards in his last two games. He's averaging pathetic 8.8 yards per reception for the season. ... Percy Harvin missed practice time this week due to a rib injury and has been a fantasy disaster all year. He had two touches for 23 yards in Week 5 and has yet to score a touchdown on offense.

Matt Forte is the Bears' only serious fantasy consideration in Week 6. It will be tough sledding for Forte on the ground against Minnesota's No. 4 run defense, but he should keep owners competitive with his versatility. Forte leads all running backs in receiving yards and ranks second to only Darren Sproles in receptions. ... Fresh off Detroit's destruction of Chicago's front five, the unit gets to tangle with Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, and red-hot LE Brian Robison. Like Ray Edwards before him, Robison is exploiting single teams and tight end blocks as Allen and Williams get all the attention. He has four sacks and a forced fumble in his last three games. I don't care about Jay Cutler's historical stats against the Vikings. He's going to be on his back all night. ... Dane Sanzenbacher is the lone intriguing Bears receiver this week, and he's only an option in PPR leagues. He'll have a better chance of getting open if Vikings slot CB Antoine Winfield (neck) misses another game. ... Overlook Johnny Knox, who is going to waste in a Bears offense that can't get the football deep. Knox hasn't found pay dirt all season, and his yardage has declined in three straight weeks.

Score Prediction: Vikings 17, Bears 13

Monday Night Football

Miami @ NY Jets

The Jets lost their Week 5 game against New England, but there were promising signs for New York's rekindled Ground & Pound approach. The Jets showed true commitment to the run, finishing with a balanced 26:25 pass-to-run ratio despite trailing 10-0 early. The return of C Nick Mangold sparked the attack, as Shonn Greene piled up 13 gains of four or more yards en route to a season-best 3.95 YPC average. Greene remains a low-end RB2, but volume and occasional goal-line work can keep his value afloat, even if he lacks any hint of big-play ability. The Fins rank a middling 14th versus the run. ... Even with the return to a run-heavy philosophy in Week 5, LaDainian Tomlinson received a year-low two carries and caught one pass. Averaging 54.8 total yards per game with one touchdown on the season, L.T. isn't on the fantasy radar. ... There was chatter of Joe McKnight's role increasing last week, but he got one carry, gained one yard, and is averaging a lowly 2.14 YPC. ... In the Jets' passing game, Dustin Keller has lost the most immediate fantasy value as a result of the change in offensive philosophy. Keller blocked on more plays than he ran pass routes for the first time this year in Week 5, catching one pass for seven yards on a measly two targets.

The Jets' offense isn't spurning the pass game entirely. Santonio Holmes came up with his most productive game of the year against the Pats, scoring 12 standard-league points and 16 in PPR. The idea behind the Ground & Pound is to control time of possession and play with more efficiency, regardless of play call. Holmes doesn't have to "compete" with Keller for targets anymore. Consider him a solid WR3 with upside again. ... Plaxico Burress will match up with Dolphins RCB Sean Smith for most of this game. At 6-foot-4, 213, Smith is one of the rare NFL corners that can nearly match Burress' size. Plax is never a terrible bet for a red-zone touchdown, but he'll hurt you if he doesn't score one. ... While the Fins' pass defense ranking isn't pretty on paper, the life has been sucked out of Mark Sanchez's fantasy upside. He's barely on the two-QB league radar this week.

The Jets may want to consider activating hulking, 346-pound rookie Kenrick Ellis on game days, because they're showing no ability to stop the run. This was a problem even before New York left only 3-4 defenders in the box at New England last week. In the past four games, opposing tailbacks have creamed the Jets for 568 yards and five rushing touchdowns on 123 carries (4.62 YPC). No team in football has allowed more rushing scores (8) on the season. This all adds up to a strong matchup for Daniel Thomas, who should be a fixture in fantasy lineups going forward. ... In Week 14 against the Dolphins last season, the Jets threw a curveball by using Antonio Cromartie instead of Darrelle Revis to shadow Brandon Marshall. Marshall finished with two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. While Cromartie has performed at a high enough level this year that it's conceivable the Jets would repeat the strategy, I'd want to avoid Fins pass catchers altogether before seeing how new quarterback Matt Moore fares. If Marshall draws Darrelle Revis, he could be zeroed out of the box score. ... Reggie Bush is just a change-of-pace back when Thomas plays. Avoid. ... Davone Bess hasn't scored a touchdown all year, or topped 52 receiving yards in his last three games. He's not producing, and never offers upside even when he is relatively productive. Aim higher.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 16

HacheMan · Oct 15, 2011

Week 6 Injury Questions

As the season moves along, we’re seeing more and more long-term injuries. That means players all over the field are being asked to play out of position, and the wideout spot is no exception.

We’re going to see a few guys on the outside this week that aren’t used to playing there. David Nelson hasn’t played anything other than the slot since college. Harry Douglas has been a slot receiver for the vast majority of his career. And Ted Ginn is getting a chance to start in what looks like an awful fit for Alex Smith’s style. Naaman Roosevelt moves into a slot role and Victor Cruz is getting a long-term tryout there.

As we get set for Week 6, we’ll have our eye on how these receivers are handling their new roles.

Of course, the Rotoworld News Page will be humming all Sunday morning to bring you official word on all your injured players ahead of kickoff. And to make sure you’re prepared, read every word of these rankings from Gregg Rosenthal/Chris Wesseling in combination with Evan Silva’s unprecedented Matchup Column.

If you want to draft a new team just for this week, check out SnapDraft here.

OK, let’s get to the hurt folks:

1 P.M. GAMES
BILLS at GIANTS
* Brandon Jacobs (knee) is out. With Bills’ top run-stuffer Kyle Williams (foot) in doubt as well, Ahmad Bradshaw has an up arrow.
* Donald Jones (ankle) is out at least a month. Look for David Nelson outside and Naaman Roosevelt in the slot.

COLTS at BENGALS
* Joseph Addai (hamstring) is a no go. Look for Delone Carter and Donald Brown to rotate pretty evenly in a tough matchup.

JAGUARS at STEELERS
* Rashard Mendenhall (hamstring) is not even listed on the injury report. Look for 15-20 touches.
* Mewelde Moore (ankle) remains out, opening up all the backup for Isaac Redman.

EAGLES at REDSKINS
* Tim Hightower (knee) is expected to be active and may very well start. But we’re expecting Ryan Torain to have the hotter hand and thus handle most of the work.
* Chris Cooley (knee) had his knee drained this week. He’s off the radar.

49ERS at LIONS
* Josh Morgan (foot) is done for the year and Braylon Edwards (knee) remains sidelined. That leaves Ted Ginn as the No. 2 receiver opposite a healthy Michael Crabtree.
* Tony Scheffler (concussion) is out. Perhaps Brandon Pettigrew gets an extra target or two.

RAMS at PACKERS
* N/A

PANTHERS at FALCONS
* Julio Jones (hamstring) is out. Harry Douglas draws the start as an interesting sleeper in what projects as a very high scoring game.

4 P.M. GAMES
BROWNS at RAIDERS
* Top Browns CB Joe Haden (knee) is not expected to play. Good news for Denarius Moore.
* Louis Murphy (groin) is ready to play a few snaps in a crowded receiving corps.

TEXANS at RAVENS
* Andre Johnson (hamstring) remains out. Jacoby Jones starts again. Meanwhile, Derrick Mason is ready to make his Texans debut but isn’t a fantasy option on limited snaps.
* Both Ben Tate (groin) and Derrick Ward (ankle) are ready to back up Arian Foster.
* Lee Evans (ankle) surprisingly isn’t ready to go. That leaves Torrey Smith as the starter.

SAINTS at BUCS
* LeGarrette Blount (knee) is likely out the next two weeks. Earnest Graham is a decent filler in PPR formats.
* David Thomas (concussion) is out. Nothing can stop the red-hot Jimmy Graham.
* Devery Henderson (calf) is ready to play as the No. 4/5 option in the passing game.

COWBOYS at PATRIOTS
* Miles Austin (hamstring) and Dez Bryant (quad) are both full gos coming out of the bye.
* Aaron Hernandez (knee) played 65 snaps last week and came out of the game healthy. Get him going.
* BenJarvus Green-Ellis (toe) is expected through a questionable tag. Stevan Ridley could see some extra work. Danny Woodhead (ankle) looks like a true game-time call.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
VIKINGS at BEARS
* Percy Harvin (rib) should be fine, but the Vikings refuse to feature him on offense.
* Earl Bennett (chest) is not expected to play, but Dane Sanzenbacher is really just a desperation option.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
DOLPHINS at JETS
* Daniel Thomas (hamstring) may not be 100 percent but he has been practicing. Look for him to suit up as a true game-time call. Note that backup Lex Hilliard has been getting extra reps this week.

SURVIVOR PICK OF THE WEEK
I anticipated that 80 percent of remaining entries would use the Giants last week. Of course, that’s a perfect time to fade that team. Of course, I choked and used the Giants. So we’re out. Sigh.

If you’re still in, big congratulations. Chances are there aren’t that many people left fighting. If I was still alive, I’d advise the Packers as the most likely winner. The Steelers are also a strong play as Blaine Gabbert on the road against that defense is a recipe for disaster. If you want to get sneaky, I think the Bears will play well after their Monday night meltdown.

I’d avoid the Saints as they are on their third straight road game. I’d also avoid going against the teams coming off a bye like Miami and Cleveland.

MY TOUGHEST DECISION OF THE WEEK
In a 16-team, full-PPR league, my WR3 choice came down to James Jones or Mike Sims-Walker. Thankfully, I had Jones in my lineup last week due to MSW’s bye. But chasing or expecting a repeat of Jones’ numbers from last week is asking for trouble.

Jones remains the No. 3 wideout and No. 4 option in the passing game. And the Packers figure to be sitting on a big lead for most of this one. Still, Sims-Walker is a bigger name than talent. Danario Alexander is the Rams’ big-play receiver and Sims-Walker won’t be able to separate from Tramon Williams or Charles Woodson. So I’m rolling with Jones and praying he burns a miserable, banged-up Rams secondary for a big one early.

HacheMan · Oct 16, 2011

Should you trust in Ryan Torain?

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

Five In Depth

1. Should you really trust Ryan Torain? Torain upended the Redskins' backfield two weeks ago by leaping to the top of the depth chart and logging 19 carries and 135 yards against the Rams. Now there's a temptation to think of Torain as a must-start for fantasy. As a team, the Skins are eighth in the NFL in rush yards per game, so if you could lasso the lead steer in this cattle drive, you might be onto something. Might. Because Mike Shanahan is mean.

Shanny just isn't trustworthy when it comes to RBs. Since the eighth game of 2007 with the Broncos, when Travis Henry was suspended, Shanahan's teams have played 44 games. Take a look at the men who've led Shanny's squads in carries each week:

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH> </TH><TH>2007 Broncos </TH><TH>2008 Broncos </TH><TH>2010 Redskins </TH><TH>2011 Redskins </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Game 1 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Andre Hall </TD><TD>Clinton Portis </TD><TD>Tim Hightower </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 2 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Selvin Young </TD><TD>Portis </TD><TD>Hightower </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 3 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Portis </TD><TD>Hightower </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 4 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Ryan Torain </TD><TD>Ryan Torain </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 5 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 6 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Michael Pittman </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 7 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Pittman </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 8 </TD><TD> </TD><TD>Pittman </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 9 </TD><TD>Selvin Young </TD><TD>Ryan Torain </TD><TD>Keiland Williams </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 10 </TD><TD>Andre Hall </TD><TD>Peyton Hillis </TD><TD>Williams </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 11 </TD><TD>Hall </TD><TD>Hillis </TD><TD>James Davis </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 12 </TD><TD>Travis Henry </TD><TD>Hillis </TD><TD>Davis </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 13 </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Tatum Bell </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 14 </TD><TD>Henry </TD><TD>P.J. Pope </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 15 </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Game 16 </TD><TD>Young </TD><TD>Bell </TD><TD>Torain </TD><TD> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Forgive the drawn-out list, but it's worth perusing. In 18 of a possible 40 games, Shanahan had a different RB lead his team in carries than the week before. (I'm ignoring the first game on each of these four lists, since there was nothing to change from.) That's 45 percent of the time. I'll grant you that sometimes injury provided the impetus, as with Portis losing his job and Torain missing a month last year. But there's still something pathological here.

Do I believe Torain will keep the lead job if he can stay healthy (a mighty big if)? I'm honestly not sure. Hightower performed well through two weeks, and may have missed time in Weeks 3 and 4 because of a shoulder injury he was slow to disclose to the team. Would anybody be shocked if Hightower grabs the reins again in a good matchup with the Eagles on Sunday? Would anybody be surprised if rookie Roy Helu -- for my money the most talented runner of the group -- asserts himself more now that the bye week has passed? In other words: Now you understand why most of ESPN.com's Week 6 rankers refused to bite terribly hard on Torain, despite the fact that they're going against that Philly D, which is allowing a league-worst 28 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs.

2. Rashard Mendenhall is still the man. All our ESPN rankers assumed that Mendy will be active versus the Jaguars on Sunday after failing to see the field in Week 5 because of an injured hamstring. But a couple of folks are still feeling cautious, and I understand why. After rushing for 13 touchdowns in '10, Mendenhall is stuck on two for '11, putting him on pace for six. He's averaging a pathetic 3.0 yards per carry and gives you nothing in the receiving game. Am I living a year in the past by rating Mendy highest among our four rankers, at No. 15 among fantasy backs for Week 6?

I mean, yeah, maybe. After all, the Steelers O-line is in terrible flux and doesn't open the kind of holes we usually see from the Pittsburgh blocking unit. In addition, the Jags represent a sneaky-tough matchup for an opponent's running game. The numbers express this -- the team is allowing only 14.2 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, eighth-best in the NFL -- but it's even more evident when you watch the footage. Tyson Alualu and Terrance Knighton are dynamic pluggers on that defensive line, and Bernard Scott's late TD notwithstanding last week, you really saw some suffocation of Cedric Benson on Sunday. Offenses like the Saints', which in Week 4 featured quick outside players Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, can give Jacksonville trouble, but Mendenhall is certainly nobody's idea of a game-breaking runner.

So why should you continue to start Mendenhall? I admit, my optimism is in part informed by my belief that the job is once again fully his. Isaac Redman was thoroughly unimpressive on last week's game tape, and Jonathan Dwyer did burst a 76-yard run, but that has the whiff of fluke about it, and Dwyer is expected to be the third-stringer Sunday, anyway. Mendenhall is a strong bet for 20 carries (give or take a few) in games when he stays healthy and the Steelers aren't getting blown out; in fact, last season he had at least 20 attempts nine times. In a world where only three RBs are averaging more than 20 totes per game (Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster and -- in only two games -- Daniel Thomas), that's worth something. In addition, I do expect the TDs to start coming. Here's how Pittsburgh's offense worked inside an opponent's 10 last year and how it's projected to work this year:

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH> </TH><TH>2010 </TH><TH>2011 (projected) </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Plays inside 10 </TD><TD>66 </TD><TD>77 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Runs inside 10 </TD><TD>37 </TD><TD>51 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Percentage of inside 10 plays that are runs </TD><TD>56.1 </TD><TD>66.2 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Rush TDs inside 10 </TD><TD>12 </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Yes, maybe this is an indictment of the team's blocking, but to see Bruce Arians calling more running plays inside an opponent's 10 than last year makes me think the TDs will come. Granted, if Arians doesn't stay stubborn, Mendenhall could be in trouble. But so far, by all accounts, a lack of target-rich opportunities has not been the Steelers running backs' trouble.

3. Where's the love for the Saints' receivers? Drew Brees is awfully good at football. He's second in the NFL in passing yards, fourth in TD passes and first in pass attempts. Suffice it to say that New Orleans flings it around a little. So imagine my surprise when I looked at the ESPN rankings this week and saw that I was the only ranker to put a second Saints receiver -- after Marques Colston -- inside my top 32 WRs, and this in a week with six teams on bye. What gives? Why do I have both Robert Meachem (23rd) and Lance Moore (30th) so much higher than the other guys do? www.rapsports.com

Perhaps the concern is that Brees may have a ton of attempts, but many of them are going to running backs and tight ends. Jimmy Graham is first on the squad with 48 targets, while Darren Sproles has 42. Here's how the targets broke out last year, and how they're projected to break out here in '11:

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH> </TH><TH>2010 </TH><TH>2011 (projected) </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>WRs </TD><TD>363 </TD><TD>301 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>RBs </TD><TD>140 </TD><TD>214 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>TEs </TD><TD>155 </TD><TD>176 </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Total </TD><TD>658 </TD><TD>691 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The pie is bigger this year, but the WRs are getting less to eat. I guess that's alarming. And in some weeks, it might concern me. But versus the Buccaneers? Not so much. Tampa is making otherwise mediocre QBs look like world-beaters these days. Curtis Painter and Alex Smith have each looked tremendous (well, for them) versus the Bucs the past two weeks, and this defense is allowing a whopping 8.3 yards per pass attempt and an alarmingly high 99.0 passer rating against, despite having played the Painters, Smiths and Donovan McNabbs of the world. Tanard Jackson is off his suspension and will return to play free safety, but is that enough? With Devery Henderson's snap count really declining (he has exactly one target each of the past two weeks), Meachem and Moore seem like sneaky No. 3 wideout plays on this high-octane offense.

4. Cedric Benson has nine lives. A couple of weeks back, the NFL tried to suspend Benson for still more knuckleheaded off-field behavior. But Benson filed an appeal with the league and an unfair labor practice charge surrounding the notion of being suspended for deeds committed while the owners were locking out the players. The Cincinnati Enquirer reported this week that it could be as much as another month before the legal mess gets untangled, and until then, Benson will suit up as the Bengals' main back.

More damning for Benson's fantasy value is the fact that for the second straight year (and really for about the 30th straight game), he looks relatively crummy running the football. Listen, he's not utterly incompetent. He's already broken a couple of runs of more than 25 yards this year, after managing just one such scamper in 2010. But he's also averaging less than 4 yards per carry, and hasn't found the end zone since Week 1. But I like him a lot this week against the Colts, so much so that I placed him well inside my top 20. The reason? Sunday's game will be played on grass.

I know, it sounds a little stupid. But that Colts run defense is still built on speed: getting up the field quickly from the defensive end spot, and then having the back seven sit in zones and rush forward to make tackles on running plays. It's a turf-based system. On grass, things don't go as well. Check out how Indianapolis fared stopping the run in seven games on the natural stuff last season:

<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH> </TH><TH></TH><TH>Rank </TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>Yards per carry </TD><TD>5.1 </TD><TD>32nd </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Yards per game </TD><TD>141 </TD><TD>28th </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>First down percentage </TD><TD>27.2 </TD><TD>32nd </TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>Big-play (more than 10 yards) rushing percentage </TD><TD>12.8 </TD><TD>24th </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

In two grass games this year, the Colts allowed 167 yards to the Texans and 192 yards to the Buccaneers. I'm a believer. Benson goes nutty Sunday.

5. Will the Browns ever produce a viable fantasy WR? The last Cleveland receiver to finish among the top 30 WRs in fantasy points was Braylon Edwards back in '07. In the three seasons since, Edwards finished 33rd in '08, Mohamed Massaquoi finished 60th in '09 and Massaquoi finished 72nd last year. That is a steaming pile of ugly. And when Pat Shurmur came to town, the offense got exactly 0 percent more exciting. While the team is a respectable 2-2 coming off a bye, the passing offense -- led by Colt McCoy -- is 31st in the league in both yards per attempt and average yards at the catch. In other words: Dink, meet dunk.

Perhaps there's some hope on the horizon. During their off week, the Browns installed rookie Greg Little as their starting split end in two-receiver sets. When Cleveland goes three-wide (which they actually do a ton; they use three-plus receivers the fourth-most of any team in the NFL), Little is expected to play out of the slot. The kid is now a full-time player and will likely run a lot of routes where he's available for the short stuff that Shurmur prefers. That's intriguing. Remember, with the Rams last year, Danny Amendola had a whopping 123 targets out of the slot, which tied him for 20th in the NFL.

A bet on Little as soon as this week versus the Raiders is mostly a bet on raw ability. Little is a converted collegiate running back who's 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, and has shown the ability to dish out punishment on occasion even in a reserve role this year. It came in garbage time in the Browns' most recent game, but I loved watching Little hang tough on a fourth-quarter catch on which the Titans' Will Witherspoon tried to lay him out but wound up getting hurt himself. The biggest problem with this entire receiving corps is simply that nobody is fast, so defenses never fear having the top blown off their formations. But I think Little is worth an add anyway. And heck, in a deeper PPR league, he's worth a start. This guy is a physical player going up against a very flammable Raiders secondary.

Five In Brief

6. Wherefore are thou, Jacoby Jones? You're right to take me to task for rating Jones as a sleeper start last week. He was a bust of great magnitude. The Texans were critical of his route-running and "attention to detail," and he wound up catching only one of the 11 passes thrown his way. I mean, that's hard to do, you know? Granted, if Matt Schaub doesn't make a total hash out of his final pass to the end zone, which was intended for Jones, nobody would be complaining. But that doesn't mean it was a good call. So why do I return to this same well, if perhaps with more circumspection? Well, it's awfully hard to ignore 11 targets, isn't it? I mean, Andre Johnson is still out, and while Kevin Walter did score a TD versus the Raiders, he got only six looks. Jones is a fast player with nice size (he's 6-2 and 212 pounds) and one assumes Houston must be able to throw to keep that Ravens defense honest. I almost can't believe it myself, but I persisted and rated Jones 28th on the week. (Walter is 34th.) It's those double-digit targets. They do it to me every time. And I'll tell you what: If I'm wrong, and Schaub is fed up with Jones, then Walter will make a good fantasy start. One of those two guys will produce a strong game.

7. Ryan Fitzpatrick = Tyler Thigpen? I brought this comparison up in last week's Hard Count, and while the Bills revel in their 4-1 record, I fear they're missing some eerie parallels to Thigpen's brief, wondrous life at the helm of a spread attack in Kansas City back in '08. KC Joyner pointed this out this week, and I agree: Fitzpatrick's downfall is that he won't continue to complete the deep ball. My analysis? When the Bills decided to go pedal-down, four- and five-wide, flinging it down the field, their ability to hang surprised some teams. They're second in the NFL in pass attempts with four or more WRs on the field. But the past two weeks, you've seen the Bengals and Eagles scheme to use dime coverages and a lot of deep help, which has made Fred Jackson's job easier, but has caused Fitzpatrick to misfire downfield. After starting the season 4-of-12 on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air, Fitzpatrick has spent the past two games going 0-of-8 on such throws, because he just doesn't have the wing to make up for what coverages are doing. Now with Donald Jones out with a high-ankle sprain, the Bills' WR depth will be tested, too. I'm still not bullish on this pass offense.

8. Danario Alexander is still my pick among Rams WRs. It's legitimate to ask whether it matters who the best receiver in St. Louis might be. Sam Bradford has looked lost in compiling his 49.7 completion percentage (remember, he was at 60 percent in his rookie campaign), and the Rams are currently tied with a league-low three TD passes (and only two of those went to wideouts). This whole "the new offensive coordinator will make all the difference" stuff may have to go out the window, because Josh McDaniels hasn't helped a thing yet. But this winless squad is coming off a bye and presumably will try to throw against a Packers secondary that's been burned quite a lot in '11, especially on deep stuff. I'm not guaranteeing a fantasy-worthy day for anyone in this St. Louis offense, but I will say that my eye is on Alexander. First off, he's healthy, and that's saying something for a kid who's had so many knee surgeries. And next, unlike Mike Sims-Walker, Alexander has untapped upside you can believe in. He's huge (6-5) and runs a borderline 4.4 flat 40. I'm filing away Alexander like I'm filing away Little. Probably their offenses don't do enough the rest of this year to justify starting them in a standard-sized league. But they've got enough raw ability to be lottery tickets that actually pay off.

9. Thanks, DeAngelo. Now sit down. The Falcons have a problem. Unless their opponent loses half their offensive line midgame (as the Packers did Sunday night), they're not generating a pass rush -- John Abraham being a surprise inactive versus the Packers didn't help -- and as a result they're getting blasted on pass defense. Atlanta is 31st in completion percentage allowed and 28th in pass yards allowed. At the same time, that D-line got a big boost from the return of defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux, and you've seen Sean Weatherspoon emerge as a horse on the weak side the past couple of games. The Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers have lately all sputtered running on Atlanta, and not for lack of trying: Those teams have carried it 58 times for 175 yards, a 3.0 per-carry average where the longest run by a RB has been 12 yards. DeAngelo Williams broke a 69-yard score versus the Saints last week that looked like the good old days, and it was certainly heartening to his fantasy owners that he was the only Panthers RB to get a carry in the first half. But please don't be fooled. This is a bad matchup, and even in his "resurgent" performance, D-Willy had all of nine carries. Cam Newton is obviously Carolina's goal-line back, and Jonathan Stewart isn't going away. No, you can't automatically bench Williams, because some good backs are on bye this week. But I'm not expecting a repeat.

10. Me and Julio down by the sidelines. In the same game, Julio Jones has officially been ruled out with a bad hammy, which gives Harry Douglas a chance to make a little noise. Yes, I think the greatest impact Jones' absence will have is elevating Roddy White back to an elite level (though one continues to wonder how badly his knee is really injured), and a candidate for something ridiculous like 18 targets or whatever. But I give Douglas a chance to make some plays on the other side. If Chris Gamble shadows White (Carolina doesn't always use him that way, but they did put Gamble on Marques Colston a fair amount in Week 5), you'll see some Captain Munnerlyn on Douglas, and that's a matchup Douglas can win. Usually a slot guy with great quicks and limited downfield usefulness, Douglas (for a week, anyway) has the kind of upside that makes him a viable bye-week fill-in in standard-sized leagues. I've got him inside my top 35 WRs for Week 6.

HacheMan · Oct 16, 2011

A minute with Tim Tebow

By Matthew Berry
ESPN.com

"Sure."

Not the most exciting or original answer, of course, but I suspect you would have had an identical reaction when posed the same question.

"Would you like to meet Tim Tebow?" my friend had asked.

"Sure," I answered. "Why not?"

I was never a huge Tebow fan. Not a hater either, but I'm not a huge fan of either the Florida Gators or even college football in general, so I didn't get the hero worship and adulation that had been heaped on him ad nauseam throughout his college career. But whatever. I already had my drink, I didn't know very many people at the party, he's always seemed nice enough ... what the hell. Let's go meet Tim Tebow.

So my friend brings me over, we shake hands and say hello. I told him who I was, what I did and mentioned that we had, in fact, just talked about him on the podcast. He had just been drafted a little while ago, so I told him that we had speculated on what his fantasy value might be in Denver.

He was very pleasant, said he wasn't sure what his role would be with the Broncos yet but would do whatever the coaches asked of him and that he was excited to start the new chapter of his career. I wish him luck, we shake hands, I walk away. Maybe we talked for an entire minute. Maybe.

So whatever, right? Nice enough guy, typical party small talk, now I can say I've met Tim Tebow. There you go. Time for another drink.

Maybe four hours later, the party is winding down. I'm walking toward the back to collect my buddy and on the way, I pass Tebow coming back the other way with his brother, whom I had also met. And I give Tim a slight head nod. You know, the kind of slight head nod you give to your co-workers when you pass them in the hallway to acknowledge you realize they are there and don't want it to be awkward but also don't want anyone to feel they have to stop and talk. So I gave Tim one of those as I keep walking past him.

He stops. And turns to me.

"Hey Matthew. It was really great to meet you. Good luck with the podcast this year!"

He recounts every single thing we talked about and shakes my hand one more time. I shake it back with what I am sure is a stunned expression on my face.

And it was in that moment I totally got it. I understood the Tebow mania. And became a huge fan of his.

Look, I've had a very weird, charmed, Forrest Gump-like life. I spent 12 years in Los Angeles as a television and film writer/producer. And then I've been with ESPN for five years. And as a result of both jobs and thanks to my younger brother (a Hollywood manager) and ex-wife (a high-ranking Hollywood executive), I've met a ton of well-known athletes, celebrities, actors, rock stars, you name it. Tons. That's not a brag -- almost anyone in show business or the sports industry can say the same thing, so it's not like I am anything special. But of all the famous people I've met, this was the most genuine, the most uncalculated, the most impressive interaction I'd ever had.
When you are as famous as Tim Tebow, someone approaches you every 30 seconds and tells you their life story. They went to Florida. They were in the stands when he made some big play. They watched that game with their dying grandfather. They've always been a big fan. They went to grade school with his cousin. He won them their fantasy league last year. Whatever. Everyone has a story or some anecdote or just wants to say hi, get a picture, have a moment. Every 30 seconds. Every day of his life. It can be exhausting.

And yet, generally, famous people are nice. People are coming up, they're saying nice things to you, it's easy to be pleasant back. I didn't love talking to Alex Rodriguez when I met him. Jim Belushi, Paul Hogan and oddly, the members of Cheap Trick were fairly unpleasant people. But usually, folks are nice. Nice in a "oh yeah, great to meet ya, cocktail party " kind of way, but nice.

This was different. After we finish our podcast, I have to record a 15-second promo and I literally have to turn to Nate and ask "What did we talk about again?" I can't remember what I ate for dinner last night. But Tim Tebow remembered a four-hour-old, one-minute conversation among the hundred he must have had and managed to make me feel like he was genuinely pleased to have met me. So I was impressed. But more importantly, I got why people were so reverent for him and why I think he will be successful in the NFL. You want to play hard for that guy. You saw the lift his teammates got when he came in; they played with more passion. There's no question. I realize it all sounds sort of school girl crush-ish and it probably is on some level. I'm genuinely a fan. And that doesn't happen often. In 30 seconds, Tim Tebow completely changed the way I thought about him.

I tweeted earlier this week that I thought Tebow should be the No. 1 pickup this week and I acknowledge the critics on his accuracy, his footwork and his lack of a pocket presence. I hear you. But his running and aggressive passing will add up to big fantasy numbers. Cam Newton lite, if you will. And ultimately, I think he will be a very successful NFL quarterback. Seems dumb, I know, off one quick interaction that has nothing to do with playing football, but I'm a pretty good judge of character. Some people just have "it." Tim Tebow has "it" in spades. He's a winner who'll continue to defy every rule.

And as we enter Week 6 of the NFL season, so too do we have to change how we view players. I've always been an advocate of waiting on rookie quarterbacks and not drafting them and this year, with the lockout, was no exception. So what Newton has done is nothing short of spectacular. Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. There. Those are the only four quarterbacks I'd rather have the rest of the year over Cam. Never thought I'd write that. It's time to realize that Josh Freeman and Mike Williams of Tampa Bay, Rashard Mendenhall, Percy Harvin, Jonathan Stewart, Sam Bradford, all the Colts and others , though talented, are not what we hoped they would be. That the 49ers, Bengals and Bills are not what we expected. In a good way. Four or five weeks doesn't seem like enough time to know everything you need to know about these guys, but in a 17-week season, it's enough to get a pretty strong impression. Just like one minute with Tim Tebow.

Let's get to it. As always, this is not a pure start/sit but rather it's about players that I like or dislike more than my fellow rankers. For specific feelings on whether to start this guy or that guy, consult my Friday rankings, follow me on Twitter and Facebook and watch "Fantasy Football Now," Sundays at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN2.

Week 6 Players I Love

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers (My rank: 2, Average of the other three rankers: 5): An obvious name, but I have him at two overall, saying I am recommending you start him over every big-time stud you might have whose name doesn't rhyme with Sharon Dodgers. Good matchup; the Falcons are allowing the ninth-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but come on. The stats on Cam are just ridiculous. He's averaging 322 passing yards per game. He's tied for third in the NFL with five rushing touchdowns. He's the only player in NFL history with at least five rushing touchdowns and five passing touchdowns in his first five games. ESPN Next Level tells us he is averaging better than 10 "air yards" per pass attempt this year, the only QB in the NFL to do so. He's averaging 24.4 fantasy points a game. He once, upon finding an injured man on the side of the road, removed his own kidney and transplanted it to the injured guy, saving the man's life, using only a dipstick and half a roll of duct tape. He is looking forward to his bye week so he can get in the lab and finish up the cure for cancer. It was him who found Osama. Seriously, ridiculous stats.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (3, 5): Cowboys are tied for the third-most completions of 20-plus yards in the NFL, and that's with Miles Austin playing only two games. He's expected back this week and New England has allowed 32 completions of 20-plus yards, most in the NFL. The average is 17. I have a feeling that stat will come into play Sunday as will this fact: I enjoy bacon.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets (12, 17): Lost in all the criticism of Mark Sanchez and the claims of the Jets going back to "ground and pound" is that Sanchez has had two touchdown passes in four of five games this season. The one game he didn't was against the Ravens, which, as luck would have it, do not play for the city of Miami. The Dolphins are 31st in pass defense and have only two takeaways this whole season. They are particularly vulnerable in the middle of the field, where Sanchez is most effective. So, if you are looking for a QB outside the top 10 this week, channel your inner 20-year-old New York model/aspiring actress and shamelessly throw yourself at Mark.

Colt McCoy, QB, Browns (18, 20): In the preseason I had Colt as a sleeper and I would describe him as "Josh Freeman lite." But this year he's been, well, Josh Freeman. Nothing flashy, nothing huge but consistently decent numbers every week: 15, 13, 14 and 17 points. I like that the Raiders give up almost 20 fantasy points a game to opposing QBs, third-most in the NFL, that Colt threw 61 times in the last game, that the Browns have been outscored 27-3 in the first quarter this year, third-worst point differential in the league (catch-up play is fantasy fun for the whole family) and, of course, that he's named Colt. He's my fourth-favorite athlete named after an animal, after Goose Gossage, Moose Johnston and Hagfish Jones, a tight end that I just made up.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants (9, 10): You know what the Giants didn't do last week? Run. You know what else they didn't do last week? Win. Know what they are going to do this week? Against Buffalo's 29th-ranked run defense? Exactly. The Giants' offensive line is banged up, but Kyle Williams may miss this game for Buffalo, which helps even things out.

Felix Jones, RB, Cowboys (12, 19): I might be a little too high on him at 12 and will probably lower him slightly when the Friday ranking updates come out, but the Patriots are in the bottom 10 of the NFL in yards-per-attempt and rushing touchdowns allowed. Teams often have to abandon the run against them because the Pats get up so big, but I think the Cowboys' offense can keep up with them enough to keep it interesting, which means a healthy dose of work for Felix as they try to limit the possessions for Brady and friends. Incidentally, I would totally watch a cartoon series called "Brady and friends." Especially if they had a van. And a talking dog. Note to young aspiring writers out there: You can never go wrong with a talking pet. America loves them. Loves them.

Shonn Greene, RB, Jets (15, 20): Not like the Dolphins are all that against the run either. The Fish allow an average of 148 total yards a game to opposing running backs, and I expect Greene to get the majority of work.

Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins (19, 20): What are they gonna do, let Matt Moore throw it? Exactly. Jets are actually 26th against the run, allow the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and on the road, on "Monday Night Football," the Dolphins will try to take the crowd out of it by controlling the clock.

Tim Hightower (27, 31) and Roy Helu, RB, Redskins (36, 41): Just putting them here because I feel everyone assumes Ryan Torain will be the main guy for Washington this week, and I'm not convinced that's the case. It's not just the crazy Shanahan factor, but also because Hightower got hurt in the last game. Watch the practice reports and tune into "Fantasy Football Now" on Sunday as we try to make more sense of this situation. It may very well be Torain, whom I currently have ranked the highest, but against Philly, I expect all three guys get work and I think both of these guys get more work than folks think.

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals (13, 12): We're all high on A.J. this week and I assume it's for the same reasons. He's a baller with a great matchup.

Pierre Garcon, WR, Colts (20, 21): One of my better calls this year I think (partially making up for the horrific call on him last year), I've loved him for two weeks straight and he keeps making me look smart. OK, smarter. Anyway, he leads the team in targets since Painter took over and I expect Leon Hall to be on Reggie Wayne enough that the trend continues. I ranked Garcon ahead of Wayne this week and that's why.

Jabar Gaffney, WR, Redskins (27, 42): Kind of a sneaky play this week, I think. Check out what "No. 1 receivers" have done against Philly this year: Hakeem Nicks (3 for 25), Roddy White (3 for 23, though he did score), Steve Johnson (4 for 29), Michael Crabtree (5 for 68) and I don't know who you'd call the Rams' number one, but none of them had more than 50 yards. So I'm not expecting a huge day from Santana Moss, which could mean a nice little day for Gaffney, who has at least 60 yards in three straight games and is available in 94 percent of leagues.

Antonio Brown, WR, Steelers (29, 45): I'm probably too high on him as well and he'll come down a bit on Friday, but I guess I believe in Weeks 2, 3 and 4, and not last week so much. It was a weird game; two scores for Hines Ward, five for Big Ben ... obviously that game went nowhere close to what I expected. But Brown is still second to Wallace in targets (only one fewer this year), and according to our friends at Football Outsiders, the Jags are fourth-best in the NFL against No. 1 receivers, but just 21st against No. 2's.

Greg Little, WR, Browns (36, 46): Bit of a gut call here, so be warned. Recently, those have not gone well. But Little moved into the starting lineup over the bye, had six catches for 57 yards on eight targets in Week 4, and you already know I like Colt.
Ted Ginn, WR, 49ers (NR):M Want a crazy, super-deep sleeper? He's not even in our top 50 but if you're in a really deep league and super desperate, Ginn could get a decent amount of looks given how much the 49ers are banged up at WR, how much scoring I am expecting them to have to do, and that the Lions aren't entirely sold on its own special teams.

Dustin Keller, TE, Jets (7, 11): You already know I like Sanchez, especially in the middle of the field. The Dolphins allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

Tony Gonzalez, TE, Falcons (9, 6): With the news that Julio Jones is out, I'll move Gonzo up even further in my ranks on Friday. Should be a good game for him against Carolina, which just got torched by Jimmy Graham.

Benjamin Watson, TE, Browns (14, 15): If you think I am nervous about the number of Browns that show up on this list, you are correct.

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST (5, 7): Double-digit fantasy points in two of the past three weeks, they are available in almost 60 percent of league and the thing I like most? They are currently tied for the eighth-most sacks in the NFL. When Curtis Painter faces five or more rushers this season, his QBR is 2. On a scale of 1 to 100.</P.< p>

Week 6 Players I Hate

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (6, 2): You're starting him. Just want to be clear here. Unless you also have Cam Newton, you're starting him. So don't get cute. He'll have a good game. So I'm not saying I really "hate" him; he's a stud, of course. But I put him in here just to explain my ranking of Brady at No. 6.

First, he's been fairly human (for him) for two straight games now: 17 and 14 points, respectively. Can we all agree the numbers 19 for 34 for 224 yards and two touchdowns aren't amazing? Well, those are Brady's stats the last time he faced a Rob Ryan-coached defense (last season's Browns). The Cowboys have had two weeks to prepare for the Patriots, the defense has gotten healthier, and I think Dallas will throw all sorts of looks at him. The Pats have been running in close more recently and I just don't see a crazy-huge game here.

Josh Freeman, QB, Buccaneers (20, 15): One touchdown pass and four interceptions total in his past three games, he's thrown for less than 200 yards in two of the three games. He's got two rushing touchdowns in that time, which has helped bail out his fantasy value, but you can't count on those. Probably no LeGarrette Blount, which puts even more attention on Freeman, and while it's actually a decent matchup for Freeman, I just wouldn't feel comfortable starting him until I see some more positive signs.

Curtis Painter, QB, Colts (24, 24): Being without a quarterback in a bye week is kind of like being in a bar at last call. Painter sort of looks good and, from just the right angle, you can sort of talk yourself into it. But come morning, you will wish you had gone another way. There are better options even during a bye week. See defense, Bengals.

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Steelers (22, 18): He's been terrible this year, with a high of 66 rushing yards. Signs point to him getting a full load, but coming off an injury we're not sure how much work he gets here and I'm a believer in a Jags front line that is in the top 10 in the NFL in rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns allowed and fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (31, 29): He's become the third running game option on this team, after Cam Newton and DeAngelo Williams, and he's not sniffing the ball at the goal line. OK, maybe he's sniffing it. Who knows what kind of weird stuff dudes are into. But he's not getting any carries. Here's his touches the past three weeks: 13, 12, 7. Trending in the wrong direction, and the Falcons did a good job with the Packers' run game last week.

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins (39, 31): Every time I see that commercial I have the same thought. Reggie Bush for a pizza? That'd actually be a pretty fair trade.

Delone Carter, RB, Colts (32, 30): I ranked him higher than Donald Brown because he'll probably get any goal-line carries, but I thought he looked terrible last week, which was frustrating. He was a big preseason sleeper for me for exactly these reasons: Joseph Addai's health and goal-line chances. Now with Addai expected to be out, he faces the Bengals, who allow the 12th-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. I already expect the Colts to struggle on the road and I expect Carter to split carries. Carter went to Syracuse, just like I did (Go 'Cuse!) so I'm rooting for him. I hope I'm wrong this week. I don't think I am. (In fairness, I never think I am wrong. Until, of course, I am.)

Santana Moss, WR, Redskins (18, 15): See Gaffney, Jabar.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Dolphins (19, 15): Revis Island. With Matt Moore at quarterback.

Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts (26, 22): See Garcon, Pierre. Or D/ST, Bengals. Or Painter, Curtis. Or skip on down to Clark, Dallas, which is coming up in a bit. Just don't see a huge game.

Lance Moore, WR, Saints (39, 32): Actually love him as a player, but with Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles and Marques Colston getting all their looks, it's hard to count on any kind of consistent production from him. He'll have two or three big games this year, it's just gonna be impossible to predict when they'll happen.

Jacoby Jones (NR, 31) and Kevin Walter (46, 38), WR, Texans: On the road, at Baltimore? The Ravens have allowed one offensive touchdown at home all year. One. It's gonna be Arian Foster and Owen Daniels in the pass game, and no big numbers from either of those receivers unless there's some sort of fluke play.

Dallas Clark, TE, Colts (16, 16): The Bengals have allowed a total of three receptions and 14 total yards to opposing tight ends the last two games. With the pressure Cincy will bring, the Colts will keep Clark in to block. Stupidly, I think, he's not a blocker, but that's what I expect to happen. Again. Sigh.

Houston Texans D/ST (17, 10): Another one that I think I'm a little too low on, but the loss of Mario Williams is huge. Houston's secondary has improved but it's not great. They were getting help because of all the pressure Houston was putting on opposing quarterbacks. On the road, against a Ravens team coming off a bye that's had two weeks to prepare and has allowed only eight sacks all year? Don't love this matchup for the Texans, from a fantasy perspective.

That's all I got this week. Good luck in Week 6 and remember, only 11 shopping days until Tebow-mas.

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2011

Instant Impressions: Week 6

By Christopher Harris
ESPN.com

• Are there any other questions about why I refused to bite on Mike Sims-Walker this season? I was a big proponent of MSW's skills back in his early Jacksonville days, but unfortunately his head seems never to have caught up with his body, and by the time he signed with the Rams, I was done with him. And now the Rams may be done with him, too. MSW was by most accounts a healthy scratch Sunday, removed from the starting lineup and deactivated altogether, as Danario Alexander and Brandon Gibson were Sam Bradford's starting wideouts. The big news in the Rams receiving corps, however, is that St. Louis has acquired Brandon Lloyd from the Broncos. I was ready to pronounce Alexander a terrific add in most leagues -- he did have six catches for 91 yards on 10 targets Sunday -- but the Lloyd acquisition muddies those waters. Lloyd will start for his old coach, Josh McDaniels, and it's unclear whether Alexander or Gibson will pair with him on the outside. Lloyd's value stays among the top 25 among fantasy receivers, and his upside probably gets a bit of a bump (provided Bradford can get enough time to hook up with him), while Alexander, Gibson and slot receiver Greg Salas must merely remain on fantasy watch lists until we see how this all shakes out. MSW should be dropped in all leagues.

• Upon injuring an ankle in the second quarter of Sunday's game, Felix Jones looked awfully frustrated sitting on the turf. Now we know why. Jerry Jones told reporters that Felix Jones suffered a high ankle sprain. This is a big blow to the Cowboys and their running game, and a tough break for Jones' fantasy owners. Crown Prince Felix was already a disappointment in the first month of 2011, averaging 82 yards from scrimmage per game with just a single Week 1 TD to his credit. Now it sounds as though we can expect him to miss multiple weeks of playing time. Considering Tashard Choice bit the Cowboys with a crucial first-quarter fumble on the Patriots' 21, you'd have to believe rookie DeMarco Murray is in line to start and lead Dallas in RB touches. More on him tomorrow in "Free-Agent Finds," but let's just note that Murray is owned in only 3.3 percent of ESPN.com leagues.

• Peyton Hillis sure had a weird visit to Oakland. He ran it on five of the Browns' first seven plays, for a modest 9 yards. Then he had exactly one more carry the rest of the game. I was sitting in the War Room in Bristol, where my pal Jason Romano keeps track of NFL teams' official Twitter feeds (among many other tasks), and we saw that initially the Browns' PR feed proclaimed that Hillis was not injured, and yanking him from the game in favor of Montario Hardesty was a coaches decision. Later, the official word from the team was that Hillis had "tweaked" a hamstring. Weirdly, Hillis did return in the fourth quarter of Sunday's game, but only to block on a few plays. Given the contract squabbles and controversy about Hillis possibly not playing with strep throat earlier this season on the advice of his agent, I think we'd all be remiss not to investigate whether this is more than a simple hammy pull. It's possible this is all simply miscommunication between the sidelines and the team's PR folks. But where there's smoke, there's often fire, y'know? And Hillis was shown multiple times standing, still in his equipment, looking bemused as his teammates played. At this point, would anyone be surprised if Hillis winds up traded before Tuesday's deadline? Not that Hardesty was great in relief (11 carries for 35 yards; two grabs for 18 yards), but he'd obviously be a must-add in such a scenario.

• In the end, the Redskins' use of quarterbacks was far more controversial than their use of running backs in Sunday's loss. Mike Shanahan stuck with Rex Grossman way too long and essentially killed any chances of a comeback victory; meanwhile, Ryan Torain was very obviously the lead rusher in D.C., as Tim Hightower was reportedly available only in an "emergency" role because of his injured shoulder. Of course, the Skins were losing big for most of the second half, so the running game went the way of the dodo anyway. The final tally? Torain had 10 carries for 22 yards, while Roy Helu had two carries for 6 yards. In other words, for one week at least this was much ado about nothing. Unfortunately, nobody can promise that Hightower won't get pronounced 100 percent healthy this week and jumble things up again. But it's fairly obvious that at the moment Torain is the guy you'd most like to be starting in fantasy leagues.

• Jason Campbell suffered a likely-season-ending broken collarbone Sunday, and Kyle Boller entered the game to protect a big lead over Cleveland. It's a tough break for the entire Raiders offense, because Boller just isn't a winning starter in the NFL: He's jittery in the pocket and he's not an accurate thrower (as his career 56.7 percent completion rate attests). It's a shame, because Darrius Heyward-Bey is apparently on the verge of reliability. He's now got three straight games of at least 82 receiving yards, and is noticeably more confident both in his route running and especially after the catch. Until further notice, DHB is the best fantasy bet among Raiders receivers, but if Boller's under center, well, one wonders how much that's actually worth. Stay tuned to see if Oakland can pry Carson Palmer away from the Bengals, or if maybe the Raiders make a play for David Garrard.

• It took a matchup against a potentially frightening pass rush, but Mike Martz finally seems to be bending to the needs of his offense. The Vikings were among the league leaders with 16 sacks entering Sunday night's game, but they barely sniffed Jay Cutler, as Cutler was an impressive 21-of-31 for 267 yards, two TDs and zero picks, while being sacked just once. Let's not oversimplify things, but NBC's coverage made a point of emphasizing how many more times during the course of the game Martz kept multiple backs and/or tight ends home to block in order to keep Cutler clean. Did it happen on every play? No. But it happened enough that one must believe Martz is finally showing more consistent flexibility from his old "Greatest Show On Turf" play-calling ways, when he liked to put as many receivers into pass patterns as possible and let his QB get hit while making throws. I'm not here to tell you the Bears' offensive line woes are officially over. But this is a good sign that Cutler could regain some of his departed confidence.

• In that same game, Donovan McNabb continued his hopeless march to oblivion. The numbers (19-of-24 for 177 yards, zero TDs and zero picks) don't look nearly as ugly as McNabb's performance was. He took a needless safety rather than toughing his way out of the end zone, and was sacked five times overall. Plus, he hit alarmingly few receivers in stride, and had a few more of his patented bounce-the-ball-at-the-receiver's-feet moments. Christian Ponder entered the game in the fourth quarter and wasn't appreciably better, but at this point there's just no need for the Vikings to keep trundling out their beleaguered veteran. Certainly, there's absolutely no reason in the world any fantasy owner should hang onto McNabb. Is Ponder an option in two-QB leagues? I suppose it's possible. I'd be surprised if he's not starting Week 7 against the Packers.

• Drew Brees played poorly in the Saints' loss in Tampa, tossing three picks and looking more ragged in the pocket than usual. Of course, he did rack up 383 passing yards, so even a bad day from Brees is pretty impressive stats-wise, but it's becoming clearer (to stubborn me, at least) that the days of wine and roses for the entire New Orleans wideout corps may be over. Sure, a healthy Marques Colston is the No. 1 target in this offense and worth starting in all fantasy leagues: He had seven grabs for 118 yards and a score Sunday. And Jimmy Graham just tied an NFL record among tight ends with four straight 100-yard games; he's probably the No. 1 TE in fantasy right now. But for Robert Meachem and Lance Moore, life is (literally) going to be catch-as-catch-can for the foreseeable future. Meachem had a single grab on two targets Sunday, while Moore caught two passes on three targets. (Devery Henderson had one catch on two targets.) In a game in which Brees passed it 45 times, the fact his Nos. 2, 3 and 4 receivers had seven combined targets is alarming, to say the least. I'm not saying you have to drop Meachem and Moore, but I am saying their production looks like it'll be spottier on a weekly basis than I believed just a few days ago. Until defenses adjust to Graham and Darren Sproles as receiving targets, there's not as much reason to find Meachem and Moore down the field.

• Chris Cooley suffered a broken index finger Sunday, and will reportedly require surgery that will keep him out for multiple games. Cooley has been a fantasy disaster area, with eight catches for 65 yards in five games, and certainly this should be the impetus that causes him to be dropped in all leagues, no matter what the size. But this news also should solidify something that was already eminently obvious: Fred Davis is an every-week top-10 tight end. He had a team-high 11 targets Sunday against the Eagles, and logged another six catches for 95 yards. Going into Monday night's action, Davis is fourth in the NFL among TEs in receiving yards and in yards per reception. He's a dangerous downfield threat in an otherwise unimposing Redskins passing offense.

• The Cowboys have some 'splaining to do about Dez Bryant. Why won't they throw this guy the ball in the second half? It was a convenient excuse to say that Bryant was hobbled with an injured quad for most of September, but that's reportedly cleared up now that Dallas has rested through the Week 5 bye. Now, I definitely saw that the Patriots rolled a safety Bryant's way (and not toward Miles Austin) in most passing situations during Sunday afternoon's game. OK, yes, coverage is dictating that Tony Romo should look elsewhere. But you know what? I don't care. You have to get Bryant some targets in the second half. He's now been held catchless in three of five contests in the second half this season, and was shown very publicly expressing his displeasure on the sidelines late Sunday. On his ankle-breaking run in the second quarter, Bryant showed why he has to have the ball in his hands more. He's just an absolute maniac in the open field. It's time to stop letting coverage dictate where Romo throws the ball, and force it in there more to Bryant. One got the sense that if the Cowboys hadn't been so stubborn staying away from Dez late, they'd maybe have made enough plays to keep Tom Brady off the field, and win Sunday's tilt.

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2011

Four Downs: Impact of Campbell's injury

Eric Karabell

Oakland Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell was one of the most added quarterbacks in ESPN standard leagues over the past week, which made sense. Campbell entered Week 6 on the periphery of the top 10 quarterbacks in standard scoring, with a reasonably favorable schedule, and with six-team bye weeks stealing good passers -- especially in Week 7 -- Campbell was a viable pickup.
However, the news that Campbell suffered a season-ending broken collarbone in Sunday's win over the Cleveland Browns not only means you can send him back to the free agent wire, but makes me wonder about other key Raiders from a fantasy perspective, namely stud running back Darren McFadden and emerging wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey.

It would be irresponsible to credit McFadden's fine play to Campbell's work at quarterback, but let's just say new starter Kyle Boller, who certainly hasn't helped fantasy owners in the past when he was with the Baltimore Ravens and St. Louis Rams, brings a different skill set. Campbell was middle of the pack for yards per attempt this season (7.1), but above his career rate of 6.8. He was playing well and helping fantasy owners. Boller's career rate is 5.9 yards per attempt, and in 46 career starts he's thrown 41 touchdown passes. Yawn.
Not that Campbell was Aaron Rodgers or anything, but opposing defenses certainly will not be scared of Boller, making life potentially more difficult for McFadden, who had a swell performance Sunday (91 rushing yards, touchdown, 15 fantasy points). Then again, 50 of the yards and the score came on the very first drive, when Campbell was healthy. McFadden isn't likely to drop in my Tuesday "rest-of-season" rankings (he was sixth overall and fifth among running backs last week), but I would do a double-take if offered his services in what might be a fair trade. Look, quarterback play often affects even the top running backs, and McFadden still hasn't played more than 13 games in any NFL season. Hungry linebackers with no fear of the Raiders downfield passing game will prepare differently for McFadden and backup Michael Bush now.
I'm more concerned about Heyward-Bey and his colleagues Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. Heyward-Bey is one of the most added players regardless of position; he's scored 34 fantasy points in three games, averaging 99 receiving yards per game. The Raiders were looking good stretching the field, and Heyward-Bey, a former if questionable top-10 overall pick, was thriving. Now I'm not excited about him. The Raiders scored one passing touchdown Sunday, when punter Shane Lechler found tight end Kevin Boss on a fake field goal. I found it fitting: Not to be mean but, it's Lechler 1, Boller 0.
Look for the Raiders to at least entertain the thought of signing a free agent quarterback (David Garrard), or trading for some other team's available option (Kyle Orton). That would make me feel better about the Raiders. As for rookie Terrelle Pryor from Ohio State, eligible to play this week, he's very raw. I can't believe the Raiders would rely on him, and if they do, fantasy owners should not.
Second down: You might find closer fantasy matchups than usual this week because so few players distinguished themselves statistically. Aaron Rodgers led quarterbacks with a mere 23 fantasy points, the only passer with three touchdowns entering the Sunday night tilt. An average of nearly five quarterbacks per week had scored 23 or more fantasy points the first five weeks. No wide receivers reached as many as 18 fantasy points Sunday, when an average of seven per week had done so the first five weeks.

Anyway, it came down to running backs for most fantasy owners, and luckily Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Turner and Frank Gore, among others, came through. Those running backs were each among the top 10 started in ESPN leagues. Pittsburgh Steelers running back Rashard Mendenhall was not. It's worth noting how much better the Steelers offensive line has looked the past two weeks, and Mendenhall, the 12th overall pick in ESPN average live drafts, appears healthy after dealing with a balky hamstring that cost him Week 5. Mendenhall ran over the Jacksonville Jaguars for 146 yards and a touchdown Sunday. Consider him back to must-play status. Third down: Ryan Torain figured to have a good game against the Philadelphia Eagles awful run defense Sunday, if coach Mike Shanahan would just let him. Torain ran wild for 135 yards in the team's last game, but Tim Hightower remained lurking, with no starter named. Well, quarterback Rex Grossman took care of the team's running game, throwing four interceptions and placing his team in such a hole that Shanahan abandoned the run. In this case, we can't blame Shanahan as Torain rushed 10 times for 22 yards. Hightower didn't even play. Folks, you're playing with fire relying on a Redskins running back (or quarterback) this season. However, go out and get tight end Fred Davis. He was hard to stop Sunday, and with Chris Cooley out indefinitely with a broken finger, Davis could crack our top 10 rankings soon.
Fourth down: Let's end with some good news. Fantasy's most added player this week was Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Earnest Graham, and the reasonable flex option came through with 109 rushing yards and 22 through the air, for 12 fantasy points. It had been more than three years since Graham's last 100-yard game. With starter LeGarrette Blount (knee) likely out at least another week, Graham is again flex-worthy in Week 7 against the Chicago Bears, but age and health limitations make him a poor investment long-term.

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2011

Lloyd trade helps DeMaryius, Eric Decker

Eric Karabell

I understand why the Denver Broncos would give away top wide receiver Brandon Lloyd to the St. Louis Rams for a late-round draft pick. The pending free agent wasn't coming back to Colorado anyway, and the Broncos want to take a closer look at young wide receiver Demaryius Thomas. Frankly, even though the Broncos didn't get much in return in sending last season's top fantasy wide receiver packing, I like the move and the message it sends.

Some will say the Broncos are making things more difficult for new quarterback Tim Tebow, removing his best weapon and setting him up to fail. But I don't see things that way. Eric Decker Decker has produced more than twice as many fantasy points (53 to 26) as Lloyd -- though Lloyd has missed one game -- with four touchdowns to Lloyd's zero. Decker is owned in 83.5 percent of ESPN standard leagues. It should be higher. I think Tebow will keep him relevant, but the key here really is Thomas.

The 22nd overall pick in the 2010 draft out of Georgia Tech, Thomas has the size and speed to be a terrific NFL wide receiver, perhaps the franchise's next Brandon Marshall. The problem is Thomas hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy. Thomas played in 10 games as a rookie, starting two, but knee and ankle injuries lingered, and he tore his Achilles' as well. A broken finger has derailed him this season, but the team thinks he can make his season debut Sunday in Week 7. I'd rather have Decker than Thomas in fantasy, but I'll surely move Thomas into my top 60 wide receivers in Tuesday's end-of-season rankings. I'll also consider Eddie Royal, out since Week 2 because of a groin injury, though he's trade bait as well.
Later this week I'll discuss Tebow a bit more in depth, but suffice to say I'm a relative believer -- I ranked him 17th among quarterbacks for the rest of the season in last week's blog entry -- that he can produce enough statistically to pique our interest. As a passer, however, he's lacking, and while previous starter Kyle Orton struggled, he got the football downfield to Decker and Lloyd. The Broncos will likely rely more on the running game moving forward, with Tebow's running ability playing a major part, but I still think Decker is a top 30 wide receiver, and Thomas and perhaps Royal will matter in deep leagues. On the Rams side, the initial reaction would be that Lloyd is a winner here, but we have some bad news for him; it might be backup quarterback A.J. Feeley throwing in his direction this Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys. Bradford is dealing with a high ankle sprain and was seen Monday in a walking boot. He could miss a few weeks. Hmm, would I rather have Tebow or Feeley throwing to Lloyd? I'll take Tebow. www.rapsports.com

Lloyd has been a fantasy bust so far, not only in relation to his awesome 2010 season, but in being the 18th wide receiver chosen in ESPN average live drafts. Lloyd entered Week 6 tied for 46th in standard scoring among wide receivers. While I think moving to the Rams should help him some -- though he'd be a far cry from his 2010 numbers -- the potential loss of Bradford mitigates the gain. I'd try to trade Lloyd in fantasy while this news still appears positive, and I would avoid dealing for Bradford under the false assumption that he's about to take off. Even if Bradford was healthy, I don't think the Lloyd trade would make him a top-20 fantasy quarterback. He entered Week 6 30th at the position, behind Orton and Rex Grossman, with three touchdown passes in five games. As for how this affects other Rams wide receivers, as colleague Christopher Harris noted Monday, there's little reason to keep owning Mike Sims-Walker, and the trade doesn't make intriguing Danario Alexander or Brandon Gibson more attractive statistically. I've also written about the pending return of Bradford's favorite early-season target last season, Mark Clayton, and he might even play in Week 7. But nobody looks better with Lloyd around and especially without Bradford at quarterback.

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2011

Felix = Frustration

Felix Jones had made significant strides toward shedding that lingering "fragile" label while playing through a separated shoulder the last few games, but Week 6 represented a major setback in his reliability.

Forced from Sunday’s game in the second quarter with a left ankle injury, Jones – who was initially expected to be "fine", according to sideline reporter Pam Oliver – has what Jerry Jones classified as a high ankle sprain, an ailment that appears likely to cost him multiple weeks.

Unfortunately for Jones’ fantasy owners, neither of his backups comes remotely close to replicating his talent, and it’s not like Jones consistently had massive running lanes to exploit in the first place. Of the two reserve Dallas RBs, DeMarco Murray (10 rush, 32 yds) looks like the preferred waiver wire add over Tashard Choice (5 rush, 14 yds).

In other injury news…

Jason Campbell is reportedly done for the year due to a broken right collarbone. Though Campbell is only a fantasy option in two-QB leagues, the shift to Kyle Boller represents a definite downgrade for the Oakland offense. It's not cause for full-scale panic, but the injury only further dilutes a muddled Oakland WR situation, and obviously encourages defenses to continue loading up against Darren McFadden whenever possible (though Campbell wasn’t exactly a major deterrent in that department in the first place).
www.rapsports.com
With that in mind, Oakland could be looking for a QB upgrade prior to the deadline, and Jason Cole of Yahoo Sports reports that the Raiders are already “trying hard” to acquire Carson Palmer (though Bengals owner Mike Brown seems unlikely to let Palmer go based on all prior news we've heard on that front). Meanwhile, the Denver Post wasted no time in speculating (or hoping, as the case may be) that the Raiders could consider making an offer for Kyle Orton.

Peyton Hillis (hamstring) is headed for an MRI on Monday. The "hope" (per beat writer Mary Cay Cabot) is that Hillis won't miss any game action, but any hamstring injury is obviously some cause for concern. We’ll know more about Hillis’ immediate outlook after Monday’s MRI.

Sam Bradford left with a sprained left ankle, but X-rays were negative, according to beat writer Jim Thomas. This doesn't sound like an injury that will cost Bradford any game action, but we may not definitively know until practices begin this week. Frighteningly, A.J. Feeley is next in line.

Antonio Gates (foot) is still hoping to return in Week 7, but stopped short of guaranteeing it, and forecast some notable concern about his status when he told the North County Times that “There's no sense in predictions after everything I've been dealing with.” Consider this the latest reminder to strongly consider shopping Gates once he returns and hopefully puts up some eye-catching stats.

More injury notes: Mike Shanahan told the Washington Post that Tim Hightower (shoulder) will be an "emergency" third-string back until his shoulder is healthy ... Demaryius Thomas (Achilles, finger) is slated to return in Week 7, and would be worth an add if Brandon Lloyd gets dealt … Jermichael Finley (1 rec, 20 yds) bruised his arm, but played through it and should be fine ... Rams backup RB Cadillac Williams was carted off with a knee injury ... Bad news for the Redskins’ offensive line: LT Trent Williams left with a high ankle sprain, and LG Kory Lichtensteiger tore his ACL and MCL, according to beat writer John Keim ... In a rare coaching infirmary update, Sean Payton went down with a significant knee injury in Sunday's loss to Tampa Bay ... Chris Cooley (finger) is reportedly headed for surgery, with no immediate indication when he'll return ... Troy Polamalu (concussion symptoms) is not expected to miss time, according to beat writer Ed Bouchette ... Cowboys LG Bill Nagy is out for the season due to a broken right ankle … The already rotten Rams' offensive line lost LT Rodger Saffold to an ankle injury ... Browns LB Scott Fujita suffered a concussion ... Bucs C Jeff Faine left with a biceps injury, but is hoping to play in Week 7, per beat writer Stephen Holder ...The Bills lost LT Chris Hairston to an ankle injury ... Vikings C John Sullivan left Sunday's game with a concussion and didn’t return.

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2011

Thirty Minute Man

The Dominoes’ 1951 chart topper “Sixty Minute Man” was one of the first R&B albums to gain mass appeal as a pop hit, playing a pivotal role in shaping rock and roll. It will never be used as Dez Bryant’s entrance music.

Bryant has been the Cowboys’ thirty-minute man, failing to record a second-half catch for the third time in five games at New England in Week 6. In fact, he’s recorded just two catches for 50 yards in four second-halves this season. What’s bizarre is that Bryant has often looked unstoppable in traffic and after the catch in first halves. Reacting to Bryant fighting through tackles and refusing to go down in the second quarter of Sunday’s game, FOX color analyst Troy Aikman declared, "I've never seen anything like it." Bryant was shut out after Aikman’s praise, drawing just two targets the rest of the way.

Without the coaches’ tape, we can’t say with any confidence whether Bryant was open or not, but there were multiple occasions where Tony Romo should have looked his way against one-on-one coverage. Although Bryant was visibly frustrated on the Dallas sideline, he downplayed the issue after the game.

"You have to understand who we have on this offense," Bryant said by way of explanation. "We have a lot of great players. Each and every last one of us can make plays. Whenever our number is called on, we just have to do our job. That's it."

When asked if the Patriots tried a different strategy in the second half, Bryant turned to temmate Kevin Ogletree. "They were playing the same coverages, right?" Bryant asked. After Ogletree nodded his head in the affirmative, Bryant responded, "Same coverages throughout the game."

Whether it’s the result of poor conditioning, lingering soreness in his quad, or a Romo connection that needs tightening, Bryant is a good bet to reverse the trend next week against a Rams defense that has allowed the most points to opposing fantasy receivers. First-half game tape shows that his acceleration and physicality after the catch may be the most impressive the league has seen since Terrell Owens was in his prime. If the second half can catch up, Bryant will be a difference-maker the rest of the way.

Game Balls

Frank Gore - Alex Smith couldn’t move the offense through the air, so the Niners turned to Gore for a season-high 141 yards. According to ESPN Stats & Info, 138 of those yards came between the tackles as the 49ers took advantage of an aggressive Detroit pass rush. The offensive line opened lanes wide enough that Gore averaged 8.3 yards before first contact on rushes up the middle. After failing to top 60 rushing yards in each of the first three weeks, Gore has exceeded 125 in each of the past three at 8.74 yards per carry. He’s back in the top-12 among fantasy backs entering the Week 7 bye.

Fred Jackson - His fan club once consisted of just Rotoworld’s Gregg Rosenthal and the folks at Pro Football Focus. Now Jackson has NFL Network calling him the game’s most underrated player on a weekly basis. He broke off a career-high 80-yard touchdown run against the Giants, the longest by a Bills back since Hall of Famer Thurman Thomas in 1990. F-Jax remains fantasy’s No. 1 back with his third game over 160 yards in the past four weeks. C.J. Spiller, considered a threat to Jackson’s job in August, didn’t receive a single carry and played the majority of his snaps at receiver.

Michael Turner - Despite underwhelming game film and a per-carry average of 2.75 over the past three weeks, Matchups guru Evan Silva warned that Turner would score “multiple touchdowns” against Carolina’s laughable run defense. The Panthers couldn’t handle Turner’s power, and the result was 139 yards and two touchdowns behind a 35:22 run-to-pass ratio. Turner has positive matchups against the Lions and Colts wrapped around the Week 8 bye. He’ll be a prime “sell” after the Week 9 game at Indy.

Rashard Mendenhall - Give yourself the Barry Horowitz pat on the back treatment if you bought low on Mendenhall last week. Max Starks’ return has stabilized a once-crumbling offensive line, and Mendenhall proved to be over his hamstring injury with a brilliant open-field first-half run of 68 yards. Mendenhall ended up gashing the Jaguars for 146 yards and a touchdown despite entering the game with just 173 yards on the season.

Jimmy Graham / Marques Colston - In just his third season of organized football, Graham has emerged as the most dynamic tight end in the NFL. With a team-high 124 yards on seven receptions and 11 targets, Graham joined future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez as the only tight ends in history with 100+ yards in four consecutive games.

While Graham stole the headlines, Colston reclaimed his No. 1 wide receiver role with a series of remarkable catches -- including a 38-yard touchdown and a 31-yarder in heavy traffic at the end of the second quarter to salvage a field goal. Colston is back to every-week starter status just in time for a matchup against a Colts defense that hasn’t come close to stopping big, physical receivers this season.

Aaron Rodgers - Despite three first-half touchdowns and 11.1 yards per attempt, Rodgers’ passer rating actually dropped to 122.5 after Sunday’s game. Last week, Rodgers became the first quarterback in NFL history to start a season with five straight games of a 110+ passer rating. Behind a 119.6 rating against the Rams, he extended that record to six. Rodgers is the offensive MVP to Ravens DT Haloti Ngata’s defensive MVP after six weeks.

Hard Luck Story

Mario Manningham’s bad luck reached comic proportions with four near touchdowns against the Bills. Cornerback Drayton Florence grabbed him from behind for a pass interference call on what would have been a sure score. Manningham bounced back with a 7-yard touchdown only to have it overturned when replay showed that his knee touched down just shy of the stripe. He came back with yet another end-zone grab only to have it ruled a non-catch when the ball was ripped out of his hands after he hit the ground. Manningham had one last chance for a score late in the game only to have the ball knocked away at the goal-line. On the verge of a breakout, Manningham is a nice buy-low target entering the Week 7 bye.

By rule, Eli Manning shared in Manningham’s hard luck story. The passing game’s pain was Ahmad Bradshaw’s gain, though. Against a defense missing three key starters, Bradshaw scored on a trio of identical 1-yard runs with a lead blocker paving the way behind a stacked offensive line.

The hard luck of Roddy White and Matt Ryan didn’t reach Manningham proportions, but the two did draw two defensive pass interference calls in the end zone setting up first-and-goals on both occasions. Though disappointing for fantasy purposes, Ryan produced a season-high 92.5 Total QBR. It’s interesting to note that Ryan’s 12 games with a QBR of 90 or higher are the second-most in the NFL since the start of the 2008 season.

Hot Stove Tracker

The Broncos take center stage with the trade deadline looming on Tuesday. Brandon Lloyd is being shopped hard, Eddie Royal has reportedly requested a trade, and Kyle Orton’s name has surfaced as a possible solution to Jason Campbell’s absence in Oakland. Despite a Denver Post report that the Broncos have yet to receive an offer of more than a seventh-round pick in exchange for Lloyd, NFL Network’s Michale Lombardi gives a trade a 90 percent chance of going down. SI.com’s Peter King puts the odds at 60 percent.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch confirms that the Rams have had "several conversations" with the Broncos regarding Lloyd. Coordinator Josh McDaniels turned Lloyd’s career around last season, and Sam Bradford desperately needs a reliable playmaker. A free agent after the season, Lloyd would only make sense for the winless Rams if he was immediately handed a long-term deal.

At one point Sunday, the 49ers were showing the “strongest interest,” though reliable beat writer Matt Maiocco cautions that dealing a mid-round pick for Lloyd would “not be consistent with team philosophy.” The Patriots and Titans have also been connected to Lloyd in multiple reports.
Update: NFL Network's Jason LaCanfora reports Lloyd will indeed be dealt to the Rams.

Royal is considered far less likely to be traded, and Orton made it clear Sunday that he hasn’t asked for a trade out of Denver. The Broncos won’t be turning back to Orton outside of an emergency situation and would presumably prefer to dump the $5 million left on his salary if possible.

The Raiders may be an option for Orton, but Plan A is an aggressive push for Carson Palmer. Coach Hue Jackson knows Palmer and Bengals owner Mike Brown from his stint in Cincinnati. He’s going to have to do some hard selling to get the obstinate Brown to budge from his oft-repeated stance that Palmer won’t be awarded freedom after refusing to play for the Bengals. King doubts any team would trade a future second-rounder for Palmer considering his dropoff in play the past few years, but the Raiders may be just desperate enough to part with a conditional 2013 second- or third-rounder. Oakland doesn’t have picks in Rounds 2-4 next season.

Cowboys owner/GM Jerry Jones told NBC’s Alex Flanagan that he would consider dealing Tashard Choice, but that was before Felix Jones was diagnosed with a high-ankle sprain. At this point, it’s hard to believe Choice would bring enough in return to be worth parting with veteran depth.

After going from starter in Week 5 to a healthy scratch in Week 6, Bears SS Chris Harris will formally request a trade Monday. It’s hard to imagine Harris bringing back more than a conditional seventh-round pick after he was humiliated on Monday Night Football against the Lions.

Peyton Hillis would seem to be a long shot for a trade after tweaking his hamstring in Sunday’s game, but it’s a situation to monitor. Hillis’ playing time and effectiveness have tailed off since sitting out Week 4 on the advice of his third agent in four months. The team first announced that Hillis was sidelined for coaching reasons on Sunday before clarifying the hamstring injury. While we don't want to blow that out of proportion, there may be more here than meets the eye considering the events of the past few weeks.

Quarterback Roulette

Raiders - With Jason Campbell (collarbone) done for the season, the 4-2 Raiders are at a QB crossroads with just journeyman Kyle Boller and raw rookie Terrelle Pryor on the roster. As mentioned above, the first priority is to make a run at Carson Palmer. Fallback options may include a Kyle Orton trade or simply signing David Garrard off the street. NFL.com analyst Pat Kirwin notes Bill Belichick’s trade history with Oakland, though Brian Hoyer would be a reach as a first-time starter in a new offense. The bottom line is that Raiders realize they’re no longer contender with Boller at the helm.

Redskins - Coach Mike Shanahan won’t make a decision on a starter until Wednesday, but you can bet the ranch that John Beck will overtake Rex Grossman as the starter. The Shanahans spent the offseason professing their love for Beck, and Grossman turned into a pumpkin right on schedule in Week 6. While the Shanahan scheme is QB-friendly, Beck doesn’t have the talent to be more than a QB2 going forward. Losing the left side of his offensive line won’t help.

Vikings - Coach Leslie Frazier and his staff will review the game tape Monday before deciding whether to replace an ineffective Donovan McNabb with rookie Christian Ponder. Frazier thought Ponder did a “good job under the circumstances” after taking over at the start of the fourth quarter. Much like Kyle Orton in Denver, McNabb isn’t the long-term answer -- and can no longer be sold as a better short-term option than the younger quarterback. The 1-5 Vikes owe it to their future to find out if Ponder can play.

Committee Time

Cowboys - DeMarco Murray: 11 touches, 39 yards / Tashard Choice: 8 touches, 30 yards / Felix Jones: 10 touches, 33 yards

Jones went down with a high-ankle sprain in the second quarter, leaving rookie Murray to handle lead-back duties with Choice playing more on passing downs. Murray was the better runner of the two backups and should see the majority of the touches in attractive matchups against the Rams and Eagles the next two weeks. Even with LG Bill Nagy (ankle) out for the season, Murray should be a top waiver addition this week.

Patriots - BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 15 touches, 69 yards / Danny Woodhead: 6 touches, 29 yards / Stevan Ridley: 3 touches, 19 yards

Ridley started at tailback and handled feature-back duties on the first drive ostensibly becauseGreen-Ellis was limited in two practices and missed one entirely. When push came to shove in a tight game, though, Bill Belichick leaned on BJGE from quarters two through four. A changing of the guard is not imminent as the Pats head into a bye week.

Saints - Darren Sproles: 9 touches, 62 yards / Mark Ingram: 10 touches, 28 yards, TD / Pierre Thomas: 8 touches, 16 yards

Interesting note from Pro Football Focus’ Mike Clay: Despite their disparate yards-per-carry figures, all three Saints backs entered the game with the same 3.0 Median run. Sproles remains the passing-down stalwart, going over five receptions for the sixth straight game. Thomas is averaging just 2.07 yards per carry the past two weeks while Ingram has scored in three of the past four games.

Panthers - Jonathan Stewart: 10 touches, 72 yards, TD / DeAngelo Williams: 13 touches, 46 yards

A more explosive Stewart racked up 7.2 yards per touch while Williams was consistently stuffed for a 3.54 average. Stewart is clearly the better talent here, but the Panthers aren’t going to banish Williams to the bench after handing him $21 million guaranteed in July. Both players are mere flex options for the near future.

Redskins - Ryan Torain: 10 touches, 22 yards / Roy Helu: 4 touches, 17 yards / Tim Hightower: Didn’t play

Hightower was active but didn't play due to his shoulder injury. Torain fell flat in a juicy matchup, but didn't have much of a chance after the Redskins fell behind early. Helu played as the third-down back, and coach Mike Shanahan confirmed that Hightower will continue to be an “emergency” third-stringer until the shoulder injury is fully recovered. Expect Torain to bounce back next week against a Panthers defense allowing the most fantasy points opposing backs.

Packers - James Starks: 15 touches, 66 yards / Ryan Grant: 11 touches, 52 yards

Grant got the “start” again and was again outplayed by Starks while the two alternated series. Barring injury, this will continue to be a fairly even split. There’s little upside here in an offense dominated by the passing game.

Colts - Donald Brown: 7 touches, 51 yards, TD / Delone Carter: 14 touches, 45 yards

Brown outplayed a plodding Carter for the second straight game. Carter started and continues to handle rare goal-line opportunities, but Brown is handling third-down duties and showing better playmaking ability on the ground. From what we’ve seen the past two weeks, Brown is the better flex play should Joseph Addai (hamstring) miss Week 7 against the Saints.

Injury Ward

Jason Campbell - Collarbone
Sam Bradford - Ankle
Peyton Hillis - Hamstring
Felix Jones - AnkleJahvid Best - Concussion
Tim Hightower - Shoulder
Cadillac Williams - Knee
Devin Hester - Chest
Chris Cooley - Finger
Troy Polamalu - Concussion?

Check out Matt Stroup’s “Felix = Frustration” for in-depth analysis of Sunday’s M*A*S*H unit fallout.

Awards Section

Stat of the Week: Behind Tom Brady’s 32nd game-winning, fourth-quarter victory, the Pats’ duo of Brady and Bill Belichick joined Dan Marino and Don Shula for the most career wins (116) by a quarterback-coach tandem. Brady and Belichick reached the mark in 35 fewer games, giving the Patriots pair the best winning percentage in history. The Patriots could go winless in two straight seasons and still have a better mark than the Dolphins’ duo.

Runner-Up: Alex Smith has already notched three game-winning, fourth-quarter comeback drives in a road game through mid-October. With four in 1989 and three in 1990, Joe Montana is the only other 49ers QB to accomplish that feat in a single season.

Second Runner-Up: Mike Wallace is the first player since Terrell Owens in 2004 with a 40-yard reception in five straight games.

Third Runner-Up: Visiting teams have combined for 14 false-start penalties over the past two games at a jacked-up Ford Field in Detroit.

Quote of the Week: From Dolphins headcase Brandon Marshall on Monday night’s matchup with the Jets: “I'm just going to let it out. I don't care if they have two or three cameras on me, I don't care if I have penalties, it doesn't matter. I don't know if it's throwing a football 15 yards in the bleachers and getting a 15-yard (penalty), or punting the ball and getting thrown out of the game, something's going to happen. I'll probably get kicked out after the second quarter. … No, I'm not joking. I'm serious. They're going to fine me. ... That quarter-and-a-half I'm out there, I'm going to play like a monster. I might get in a fight with Bart Scott, (Antonio) Cromartie -- we used to fight in Denver and San Diego. If that happens, that happens."

Runner-Up: Penn State coach Joe Paterno, recalling a time when Al Davis offered him a job in Oakland: "When Al got the job (with the Raiders), he called me to be his offensive coordinator. I told Al, 'You and I would have trouble getting along, because I am smarter than you are.'"

Second Runner-Up: Plaxico Burress, responding to ex-teammate Derrick Mason’s statement that the Jets can’t worry about 4-1 Buffalo, “They’ve got good wings.”

Tweet of the Week: From @greggrosenthal of Profootballtalk and Rotoworld on washed-up stars coming out of the woodwork for Detroit’s big week: “I would rather eat at Applebee's with Chris Berman and Jesse Palmer than watch Tim Allen's show.”

Runner-Up: Rex Grossman tie. From Cindy Boren of the Washington Post: "’What was Rex Grossman thinking on that throw?’ I've heard that 47 times and it's only Week 6. Beck warming up!” From Gregg Doyel of CBSSports.com: “John Beck warming up for Redskins. No idea why. That Grossman-to-Coleman thing is working, baby.”

Fantasy MVP of Week 6: Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants

Fantasy Breakout Player of Week 6: Earnest Graham, Buccaneers

Fantasy Rookie of Week 6: A.J. Green, Bengals

Fantasy Disappointment of Week 6: Ryan Torain, Redskins

Fantasy Fraud of Week 6: Felix Jones, Cowboys

Fantasy Fluke of Week 6: Jerome Simpson, Bengals

Fine Fifteen Fantasy Offenses

1. Patriots
2. Eagles
3. Packers
4. Saints
5. Lions
6. Cowboys
7. Giants
8. Panthers
9. Chargers
10. Steelers
11. Texans
12. Falcons
13. Ravens
14. Bills
15. Cardinals

Early Waiver Look

QB: Sam Bradford, John Beck, David Garrard, Carson Palmer, Christian Ponder, Kyle Orton, Curtis Painter, Kyle Boller
RB: DeMarco Murray, Maurice Morris, Montario Hardesty, Tashard Choice, Donald Brown
WR: Danario Alexander, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Salas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Torrey Smith, Jerome Simpson
TE: Jared Cook, Lance Kendricks, Jake Ballard

HacheMan · Oct 17, 2011

MNF Matchup: Dolphins @ Jets
Monday Night Football

Miami @ NY Jets

The Jets lost their Week 5 game against New England, but there were promising signs for New York's rekindled Ground & Pound approach. The Jets showed true commitment to the run, finishing with a balanced 26:25 pass-to-run ratio despite trailing 10-0 early. The return of C Nick Mangold sparked the attack, as Shonn Greene piled up 13 gains of four or more yards en route to a season-best 3.95 YPC average. Greene remains a low-end RB2, but volume and occasional goal-line work can keep his value afloat, even if he lacks any hint of big-play ability. The Fins rank a middling 14th versus the run. ... Even with the return to a run-heavy philosophy in Week 5, LaDainian Tomlinson received a year-low two carries and caught one pass. Averaging 54.8 total yards per game with one touchdown on the season, L.T. isn't on the fantasy radar. ... There was chatter of Joe McKnight's role increasing last week, but he got one carry, gained one yard, and is averaging a lowly 2.14 YPC. ... In the Jets' passing game, Dustin Keller has lost the most immediate fantasy value as a result of the change in offensive philosophy. Keller blocked on more plays than he ran pass routes for the first time this year in Week 5, catching one pass for seven yards on a measly two targets.

The Jets' offense isn't spurning the pass game entirely. Santonio Holmes came up with his most productive game of the year against the Pats, scoring 12 standard-league points and 16 in PPR. The idea behind the Ground & Pound is to control time of possession and play with more efficiency, regardless of play call. Holmes doesn't have to "compete" with Keller for targets anymore. Consider him a solid WR3 with upside again. ... Plaxico Burress will match up with Dolphins RCB Sean Smith for most of this game. At 6-foot-4, 213, Smith is one of the rare NFL corners that can nearly match Burress' size. Plax is never a terrible bet for a red-zone touchdown, but he'll hurt you if he doesn't score one. ... While the Fins' pass defense ranking isn't pretty on paper, the life has been sucked out of Mark Sanchez's fantasy upside. He's barely on the two-QB league radar this week.

The Jets may want to consider activating hulking, 346-pound rookie Kenrick Ellis on game days, because they're showing no ability to stop the run. This was a problem even before New York left only 3-4 defenders in the box at New England last week. In the past four games, opposing tailbacks have creamed the Jets for 568 yards and five rushing touchdowns on 123 carries (4.62 YPC). No team in football has allowed more rushing scores (8) on the season. This all adds up to a strong matchup for Daniel Thomas, who should be a fixture in fantasy lineups assuming he's active. Thomas (hamstring) is a game-time decision. ... In Week 14 against the Dolphins last season, the Jets threw a curveball by using Antonio Cromartie instead of Darrelle Revis to shadow Brandon Marshall. Marshall finished with two catches for 16 yards and a touchdown. While Cromartie has performed at a high enough level this year that it's conceivable the Jets would repeat the strategy, I'd want to avoid Fins pass catchers altogether before seeing how new quarterback Matt Moore fares. If Marshall draws Darrelle Revis, he could be zeroed out of the box score. ... Reggie Bush is just a change-of-pace back when Thomas plays. Avoid. ... Davone Bess hasn't scored a touchdown all year, or topped 52 receiving yards in his last three games. He's not producing, and never offers upside even when he is relatively productive. Aim higher.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Dolphins 16

HacheMan · Oct 18, 2011

Claim Carson Palmer to upgrade quarterback

By Roger Rotter, USA TODAY

Carson Palmer ranked sixth in passing yards (3,970) and ninth in passing scores (26) last season.

CAPTION

By Chris Trotman, Getty Images

New Oakland Raiders quarterback Carson Palmer is a fantastic opportunity for fantasy football squads to significantly upgrade their quarterback if needed.

It's more important for NFL teams to have a star quarterback than top receivers if given the choice, and Palmer will be very effective behind a strong offensive line and a superb running game.
Since Palmer improves Oakland's quarterback situation, he'll help transform emerging wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey into a reliable fantasy starter and help make tight end Kevin Boss into a legitimate fantasy starter. Other talented Raiders receivers like rookie Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford or Louis Murphy could emerge as consistent fantasy starters.
Palmer's presence will also increase scoring opportunities for top fantasy back Darren McFadden, similar to the effect that Brett Favre had on Adrian Peterson's rushing totals. Peterson's rushing touchdowns skyrocketed from 10 in 2008 to 18 when Favre arrived for the 2009 season and instantly improved Minnesota's passing attack. Favre also helped transform Minnesota into Super Bowl contenders, leading the team to the NFC Championship game that season.
In Palmer's favor, he turns only age 32 this December, so he's still in the prime of his career as a quarterback.
McFadden leads the NFL in rushing yards (610), but ranks just ninth (4) in rushing touchdowns. He's only scored 20 touchdowns during his first three seasons and will have a reasonable chance to approach that figure in a single season from increased scoring chances with Palmer at quarterback.
Palmer has already shown he's one of the NFL top quarterbacks. During the last five seasons when he's played all 16 games, Palmer passed for at least 3,970 yards thrice and reached 26 touchdowns four times.
The Raiders have a favorable remaining schedule of pass defenses for fantasy quarterbacks, especially near and during the fantasy playoffs. Oakland meets No. 27 Miami (yards) in Week 13, No. 31 Green Bay (yards) in Week 14 and No. 32 Kansas City (touchdowns) in Week 16.
The upcoming schedule is favorable against pass defenses as well. Oakland meets Kansas City in Week 7, No. 27 Denver (touchdowns) in Week 9, No. 24 Minnesota in Week 11 and No. 25 Chicago (yards) in Week 12.
While Raiders fans are dreaming Super Bowl with the addition of Palmer, fantasy owners can increase their chances for a fantasy title by claiming Palmer. Additionally, picking up Heyward-Bey and Boss could also help upgrade owners' receivers.