Fantasy Baseball News 2018

HacheMan · Jul 26, 2018

Top fantasy baseball free agents by position

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Whether one is winning their fantasy league or struggling to compete, there are always undervalued free-agent options available with the potential to aid teams. That is the purpose of this weekly column, to pinpoint those options. So here we go, and remember players rostered in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues are not eligible for inclusion on this list!

Catcher:

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Robinson Chirinos, Texas Rangers (12 percent rostered): This hitter of 17 home runs a season ago has blasted a pair in the past week, and that is enough to pique our interest. Chirinos has also been steadily raising his batting average, which was .250 in June. We will take that. With Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez out until perhaps September, Chirinos is a reasonable replacement.

Jorge Alfaro, Philadelphia Phillies (5.5 percent): The former Rangers prospect acquired in the Cole Hamels trade is a lot like Chirinos, a right-handed slugger with no sense of plate discipline. However, Alfaro can hit baseballs far and perhaps hit .250 the rest of the way as well.

Others: Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins; Austin Romine, New York Yankees; Elias Diaz, Pittsburgh Pirates; Caleb Joseph, Baltimore Orioles; Omar Narvaez, Chicago White Sox

Corner infield:

<strike></strike>Jake Bauers, Tampa Bay Rays (29.9 percent): The plate discipline has waned in recent weeks, but Bauers has hardly been overwhelmed in his rookie season and the power and batting average are coming. Bauers has even chipped in with a few stolen bases. This should be a top-20 first baseman the rest of the way. His readily available teammate C.J. Cron also keeps hitting for power as well and comes recommended.

Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics (39.5 percent): A legit power hitter and excellent defender, Chapman came off the DL earlier this month and has hit for average, sans much power. That will change. Chapman is a 30-homer guy with a full season of playing time. Now he is healthy. Just do not expect more than a .250 batting average.

Evan Longoria, San Francisco Giants (27.8 percent): Longoria was not having such an awesome season when his hand was fractured by a pitched ball six weeks ago, and I would argue such an injury puts a damper on expectations the final two months. Still, he is Evan Longoria. As average as he has become, there is a useful level of production. Same with the Washington Nationals getting Ryan Zimmerman back. I would prefer others, but there could be value here.

<strike></strike>Others: Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies; C.J. Cron, Tampa Bay Rays; Ryon Healy, Seattle Mariners; Yonder Alonso, Cleveland Indians; Justin Bour, Miami Marlins; Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins

Middle infield:Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners (39 percent): The suspension will end soon, but the Mariners are not promising this long-time producer at-bats at second base. He might move to first base. Still, Cano should hit for average and at least modest power upon his return. Just do not expect all-star numbers.

Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs (47.9 percent): The second-year player strikes out way too much and has not hit left-handed pitching, but the playing time is there and he can contribute for power and stolen bases. Happ boasts a similar OPS to his rookie year, but with less power. That could change.

Amed Rosario, New York Mets (5.9 percent): It boggles the mind how this team makes decisions on whom to not only employ, but start on a regular basis. Rosario has been playing lately and has stolen four bases in two weeks. Since so few players steal bases at that rate, that makes him interesting, assuming he gets to play.

Others: Ian Kinsler, Los Angeles Angels; Marcus Semien, Oakland Athletics; Jorge Polanco, Minnesota Twins; Johan Camargo, Atlanta Braves; Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs

Outfield:

Willie Calhoun, Texas Rangers (11.3 percent): The rookie finally got promoted back to the majors after last year's brief stint and he appears to be getting regular chances to play. Calhoun did not provide great power this season at Triple-A, but he made a lot of contact. That is good, because we know the power is there. Take a chance.

Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels (15.8 percent): Forget the season numbers. The unrelated Calhoun has hit four home runs and, as the occasional leadoff option against right-handers, scored 12 runs in two weeks. The old Calhoun is apparently back.

Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs (42.9 percent): Laugh if you must, but the team's No. 3 hitter is batting better than .300 for the past month and knocking in runs. The power has not been there, but with injuries and player slumps the Cubs moved Heyward up in the order, and he has been OK.

Cameron Maybin, Miami Marlins (6 percent): His has been a disappointing season, but Maybin has managed to steal five bases in two weeks and the Marlins do not boast better options. Perhaps Maybin cannot stay healthy, but if you roster Billy Hamilton, Maybin is actually a better short-term option.

Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins (34.1 percent): A breakout candidate that has yet to take that next step, this recommendation is not based on recent stats. Kepler has a few home runs this week, but the last time he registered more than one hit in a contest was more than two weeks ago. I think that will be changing soon.

Others: Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays; Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox; Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres

Starting pitcher:

Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox (36.8 percent): A rough outing a few weeks ago led fantasy managers to move on, but a trade to Boston should excite people again. Eovaldi has made 10 starts and he still boasts a sub-1.00 WHIP. He strikes hitters out. He should get run support. There is much to like here.

Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers (17 percent): He has made five consecutive quality starts and even won a pair of them, and we know Fiers can miss bats. The season numbers are fine and the possibility remains that Fiers too ends up traded to a contender.

Vince Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies (13.9 percent): A strikeout option that has posted a 2.35 ERA since the 10-run barrage handed to him by the Brewers earlier this month, Velasquez is limiting the home runs and the walks. We cannot ask for much more than that.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox (22.9 percent): The lefty has won consecutive starts and shined in them, beating the Cardinals and Angels with 15 innings of work, allowing five hits and fanning 15. Rodon might always be a walker, but now he is going deep into games. It is a great sign. His right-handed teammate Lucas Giolito also seems to have turned a corner of late.

Wade LeBlanc, Seattle Mariners (32.6 percent): The reasons to avoid this soft-tossing lefty are obvious, but it is the final week of July and still LeBlanc has pitched well, save for road outings at Colorado and Boston. LeBlanc struck out 10 White Sox in his most recent outing. That is not his game, but with a 4.16 FIP, he is not awful, either.

Others: Ervin Santana and Jake Odorizzi, Minnesota Twins; Nick Kingham, Pittsburgh Pirates; Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers; Anibal Sanchez, Atlanta Braves; Dereck Rodriguez, San Francisco Giants; Drew Pomeranz, Boston Red Sox

Relief pitcher:

Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays (32 percent): Saver of 75 games from 2016-17, Osuna is eligible to return from suspension on Aug. 5, and the Blue Jays claim he will go right back to closing games.

<strike></strike>Pedro Strop, Chicago Cubs (6.9 percent): Brandon Morrow was supposed to come off the disabled list this weekend, but the Cubs say that is not going to happen, which means Strop remains the leader for saves for a first-place club. OK, so the saves might stop next week, or perhaps Morrow, rarely the bastion of health, needs more time for his biceps injury.

Sergio Romo, Tampa Bay Rays (38 percent): The veteran just keeps on earning saves for a spunky team that rarely wins its games by more than three runs. He could be in a trade as well, but worry about that if it occurs.

Others: Robert Gsellman, New York Mets; A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves; Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies; Shane Greene and Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers; Wily Peralta, Kansas City Royals<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Jul 30, 2018

Despite no-hit bid, not much has changed this season for Sean Newcomb

[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]Eric Karabellf
ESPN INSIDER

Curiously, one will not find much about being one out from a no-hitter in the standard headlines, but on the field, Atlanta Braves left-hander Sean Newcomb nearly made history on Sunday afternoon. Newcomb, rostered in roughly 80 percent of ESPN standard leagues, simply needed to retire Los Angeles Dodgers utility option Chris Taylor to complete the gem, but alas, two pitches after a third strike was not called on a pitch that seemed to deserve it, Taylor swatted a single into left field. It falls just short of history, but Newcomb certainly became noticed.

<alsosee style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Let us deal with Newcomb the fantasy option here because he can be a bit hard to trust. That does not mean we should ignore him and his relevant statistics, for Newcomb's body of work this season has been impressive -- a mere 25 pitchers rank better on the Player Rater. What holds Newcomb and so many pitchers back is the lack of control. Sunday might seem like a breakthrough, as he issued only one walk, but I remain skeptical. Newcomb had walked four or more in three of his previous four outings. He still boasts a 1.20 WHIP on the season, but it seems like a mirage thanks to the .241 BABIP.

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As unlucky as Jon Gray, Nick Pivetta and so many others have been with their batted balls in play, Newcomb is on the other end. Only Julio Teheran, Sean Manaea (who did throw a no-hitter this season) and Chase Anderson have recorded a lower BABIP among qualified hurlers this season. That does not mean that Newcomb is about to see major correction and that his ERA will jump a run. After all, his next outing is on the schedule to be against the New York Mets. The worry is Newcomb essentially boasts the same profile from last season, when he went 4-9 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over 19 starts.

In fact, little has changed. Newcomb has cut into his walk rate a bit, but his strikeout rate has dipped along with it. Home runs were not an issue last season and still are not. Fastball velocity is down a bit, but hwas not a particularly hard thrower to start with. The repertoire has traded curveballs for changeups, which might explain his surprising success against right-handed batters. Other than being fortunate with BABIP, find something that has changed. Sunday's outing also shined a light on the pitcher for his on-field work, and it worries me because his 4.06 FIP and 4.32 xFIP seem to match his skill more than his 3.23 ERA. Last year's FIP was 4.19, while the xFIP was 4.52.

Regardless, nobody should be dumping a young lefty. He actually reminds me quite a bit of the Oakland Athletics no-hitter-hurler Manaea, another fellow vastly outperforming his peripherals. Manaea's K rate has flattened, and he has been fortunate to keep his ERA in the low-to-mid-3 range for so long. It can continue, but often does not.

Newcomb also threw 134 pitches on Sunday, and that is a scary red flag for immediate future performance. Ultimately, my view on Newcomb the pitcher has not changed since entering the weekend: Sunday's outing and his season ERA tell us this might be a top-50 starting pitcher, but not necessarily. If the trade offer is right, you know what to do.

[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]
Box scores

Highlights:

• Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: 2-for-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• C.J. Cron, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Nick Markakis, OF, Atlanta Braves: 3-for-4, HR, 3 RBI

• Sean Newcomb, SP, Atlanta Braves: 8 2/3 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

• Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Lowlights:

• Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Joey Lucchesi, SP, San Diego Padres: 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

• Junior Guerra, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

• Jordan Zimmermann, SP. Detroit Tigers: 3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Weekend takeaways:

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the 7th player to debut since 1900, and first since Tony Pérez in 1973, with multiple hits in at least 11 straight games.
Five of the previous six to do so are Hall-of-Famers, with the exception of Shoeless Joe Jackson.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/zn7Jws5UoU
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 29, 2018

• While older brother Yuli keeps hitting for average for the Houston Astros and might qualify at second base soon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. signed his contract with the Toronto Blue Jays before the 2017 season and had not shown much at the plate across several minor league levels. In fact, Gurriel's batting average over 110 minor league games and 452 plate appearances is a pedestrian .260, with a .294 on-base percentage and .395 slugging percentage. He stole seven bases. Fantasy managers had reason to ignore him, but he is hitting .423 this month with four home runs. I am skeptical this is a .300 hitter or someone worthy of attention in standard mixed leagues, but he is the most added player thanks to this streak of hitting. Enjoy it while it lasts, but it might be a few days before it resumes because Gurriel hurt his left knee and ankle late in Sunday's contest.

• Boston Red Sox right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and New York Yankees lefty J.A. Happ made their respective debuts for their new teams, each remaining in the AL East and each shutting down weaker AL Central offenses. Eovaldi toyed with the Minnesota Twins over seven shutout frames, issuing nary a walk and needing only 82 pitches. Yeah, he continues to look legit. Happ allowed three hits and a run over six innings against the Kansas City Royals. I am running out of reasons to remain skeptical about Eovaldi this season. His WHIP is 0.94. He is healthy. He pitches for a good team. I think I would take Eovaldi over Newcomb.

• As seen on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball, Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo homered for the 15th time and has thrived in the leadoff role, batting .400 over 16 games and 72 plate appearances with four home runs. Now, is Rizzo succeeding because he is a great player who has proven this over several years, or because his manager somehow believes he needed to be the leadoff hitter to unlock the proven skills? Does it matter? Rizzo and Kris Bryant are not doing what we expected, but it is not too late. Rizzo is healthy and seems to have the best chance. Enjoy this.

Injuries of note:
• Each of the starting middle infielders for the Astros is now on the DL, as Jose Altuve joined Carlos Correa. Altuve's knee injury does not appear to be a major problem, as it looks like the team is taking advantage of depth and giving its second baseman a break, since October baseball seems likely. Fantasy managers should be more concerned about Correa and his nebulous timetable to play again. Gurriel played second base on Sunday, and that could continue, although he has not hit much of late.

• Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is back on the DL roughly a week after coming off it for a different injury. It was the shoulder then, a hamstring now. This could be a bit like the Altuve situation, as the Red Sox have depth and want to give a hurting player a break. Eduardo Nunez can handle the at-bats. Could Blake Swihart? We talk about the catcher-eligible more than we should, but if he gets a chance and hits, that is valuable.

Closing time:

• Closers continue to be on the move, and more is to come by Tuesday's trade deadline. The only way Baltimore manager Buck Showalter could be persuaded to stop using undeserving right-hander Brad Brach in the role was for him to be traded. He's on the Braves now, and he could figure into saves there with Arodys Vizcaino on the DL. Brach has to pitch better, though. The Orioles should go with Mychal Givens, but then again, he could be traded, too. Keep an eye on so many teams potentially dealing their closers by Tuesday, with Bud Norris, Shane Greene, Keone Kela and Kirby Yates jumping to mind.

W2W4:

• It is young versus old on ESPN+ as Cleveland Indians pitcher Shane Bieber faces Minnesota's Ervin Santana, and neither one of them is throwing particularly hard. Bieber has been very hittable in July, and that is a big concern. The rookie has impressive control but seems to be throwing too many strikes. This outing is important for his fantasy value. Santana's season debut went fairly well, I suppose, but he was not hitting 90 mph with his fastball. That is a concern, as well. I would rather take a chance on Bieber at this point.

• Kind of a big series in Seattle, as the Astros have not played well of late and have to face lefty James Paxton, at least in theory. Paxton was supposed to come off the DL and pitch last week, but his stiff back did not allow it. Prior to his abbreviated outing in which news of the injury was released, Paxton fanned 30 hitters in three appearances. The Mariners and fantasy managers need him. Do you feel lucky?
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HacheMan · Jul 31, 2018

How much does Ian Kinsler's value increase in Boston?

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

The Boston Red Sox picked up veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler in a trade from the Los Angeles Angels
late Monday night, and this should definitively signal to those still investing in Dustin Pedroia
that they can move on for this season. It is also interesting for Kinsler. No, he is not likely to get anywhere near the top of the stacked Boston lineup, but Kinsler has rebounded nicely from a rough, injury-plagued start to this season.

The Boston Red Sox picked up veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler in a trade from the Los Angeles Angels late Monday night, and this should definitively signal to those still investing in Dustin Pedroia that they can move on for this season. It is also interesting for Kinsler. No, he is not likely to get anywhere near the top of the stacked Boston lineup, but Kinsler has rebounded nicely from a rough, injury-plagued start to this season.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Kinsler smacked eight home runs in June and he has hit .320 in July with a few homers, a few stolen bases and 15 runs scored. OK, so he is no longer a top-10 second baseman, but at 36 years old, few expected such production. Kinsler was the 16th second baseman selected in ESPN average live drafts, overall in the 19th round, and he is currently one of the most added hitters in ESPN standard leagues, but still available in roughly half of them.

Fantasy managers want their hitters hitting at the top of a lineup, so they bat more often and get more chances for the counting numbers, and they also prefer their players to be considerably younger, but I really like this move for Kinsler. While his career numbers at Fenway Park are rather moribund (.260, 7 HR, 5 SB in 193 PA), remember that he was facing Red Sox pitching. In addition, there are eight weeks left. We do not expect greatness, but, well, relevance. Kinsler has been valuable for the past eight weeks.

The Red Sox employ a leadoff hitter that just happens to boast excellent power and perhaps the top credentials for AL MVP honors, which makes Kinsler a bit different than the normal bottom-of-the-lineup option. Betts has turned his 25 home runs into a mere 56 runs batted in, which is hardly his fault. The Red Sox, despite the best record in baseball, could use a little lineup depth. With Rafael Devers on the DL the team hit Jackie Bradley Jr. sixth and Eduardo Nunez seventh, and the team's catchers have not hit much. Kinsler might actually end up hitting sixth.

The Angels will likely give rookie David Fletcher a long look at second base, and he is intriguing for deeper formats. Luis Valbuena and Jefrey Marte could platoon at third base. Yawn.

Here is a brief take on the other Monday trades and we will, of course, follow all the Tuesday transactions as well and give thoughts.

--Adam Duvall went to the Atlanta Braves for a few failed prospects from yesteryear, and regular playing time is far from assured. In fact, I think the Braves will essentially platoon Duvall with center fielder Ender Inciarte, who has been awful against left-handed pitching. Ronald Acuna Jr. will move to center field on days Duvall plays. This does not make Duvall an attractive fantasy option. He is available in 70 percent of mixed leagues, and I think he plays fewer games after this trade. As for the Reds, the team admits Duvall was moved to make it clear Jesse Winker and Scott Schebler are the starting corner outfielders heading into next season. We should all like that. Winker is a potential star. As for current Reds outfielders, get used to Mason Williams and Phillip Ervin.

--Lance Lynn went to the New York Yankees and while the right-hander has performed better of late, he still has not been good. The Yankees could opt to utilize him out of the bullpen and for shorter stints, seeing that he has done better against right-handed pitching and they can match him up. Regardless, this is a bit like the Duvall move. Little of consequence was in the trade and the headliner does not gain fantasy value. Also, the Twins do not have some top pitching prospect begging for opportunity, unless you really like lefty Adalberto Mejia.

--The big news around the trade deadline generally comes from the transfer of saves from one pitcher to another. The Texas Rangers moved right-hander Keone Kela to the Pittsburgh Pirates, which seems odd, but Felipe Vazquez need not worry. Kela will be his setup man. Kela fantasy managers can move on, perhaps to his former teammate Jose Leclerc, or perhaps to lefties Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman. I think it is Leclerc, who struck out three in Monday's appearance and has the best season numbers.

--More on the savers of games in Wednesday's Closer Report (moved back a day to account for the deadline), but the controversial trade of suspended Roberto Osuna to the Houston Astros for demoted Ken Giles should, for the sake of statistics, mean that two pitchers that are not currently getting saves will resume getting them. Osuna and Giles have been successful pitchers and each is more than capable of earning saves. Each was a top-10 closer in ESPN ADP, and each is available in more than half of those leagues today. This column is about the numbers and fantasy value and these pitchers will get saves.

Monday recap

Box scores

Highlights:

• Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Cleveland Indians: 2-for-4, 2 HR, SB

• Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies: 2-for-5, HR, 4 RBI

• James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

• Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Lowlights:

• Wil Myers, 1B/OF, San Diego Padres: 0-for-6, 4 K

• Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: 0-for-5, 3 K

• Kenta Maeda, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

• Marco Estrada, SP. Toronto Blue Jays: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

• Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K

Monday takeaways:

<strike></strike>• Yes, I am surprised. Ramirez hit 11 home runs as a full-time player in 2016, and 29 last season. Did I think he would break 40 home runs this season? No, of course not, but Ramirez is well on his way to doing so. He has developed even better plate discipline, with a lot more walks than strikeouts, his hard-hit percentage has greatly risen and he is hitting many more fly balls. Everything looks awesome here, and if Betts and teammate J.D. Martinez split the MVP vote, Ramirez could win it. I moved Ramirez into my top 10 more than a month ago, and I believe he might be the No. 3 selection in 2019 fantasy drafts, right after Mike Trout and Betts. Yep, I sure did not expect that. By the way, Jim Thome really is one of the nicest people I have ever met.

• Seattle Mariners lefty James Paxton made a successful return from his latest DL stint by tossing seven dominant shutout innings against the sputtering Astros. Paxton would be a top-10 fantasy starting pitcher if we could rely on him staying healthy. He is three starts away from last year's 24, which was a career high. I think he breaks the mark, but nobody can tell you he makes all his starts the rest of the season. Still, this feels a lot like the AL Clayton Kershaw, in more than one way.

• Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera made some interesting plays in the 13-inning loss at Boston, including a botched rundown at third base and misjudging a line drive that sailed over his head for an RBI triple. It is possible Aaron Nola and Seranthony Dominguez would have won a 1-0 game sans the defensive miscue. Still, Herrera is a top-20 outfielder on the season Player Rater, and the good comes with bad. He is on pace for 29 home runs, which is more than I ever expected after hitting 29 the past two years combined. If there is any disappointment in Herrera's stats, it is his apprehension about stealing bases. Herrera stole 25 bases in 2016. He is 5-for-7 in attempts this year.

Injuries of note:

• I would not say this is officially the last we will see of St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez for the season, but with the Cardinals sputtering along and the team's ace back on the DL the same day he came off it, this time with a shoulder strain, who knows? Martinez seemed durable the past few seasons, averaging 31 starts from 2015-17. He struck out 217 hitters last season. This year has been an effective one, despite the rising walk rate, but I do not assume Martinez struggles in 2019. He might slip outside the top 20 starters on draft day, however. If he does return in August, go get him. He can be great. I would think Daniel Poncedeleon is likely to enter the rotation, and there is intrigue there. I do not see Dakota Hudson getting a chance to start in 2018.

• San Francisco Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto has also had issues staying on the mound this season, and now we might not see him at all in 2019, either, as manager Bruce Bochy stated the dreaded Tommy John surgery could be necessary. Cueto is 32 and his fastball velocity was way down.

• Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Ross Stripling hit the DL with a toe injury, and fantasy managers should not be the least bit worried. I think the organization simply wanted to give the fellow a break, as he could not make it through five innings in his past two outings at Atlanta and Philadelphia. Stripling looked tired. Good luck with that toe.

Closing time:

• Will Smith earned the win for the Giants in extra innings and fanned each of the four Padres placed in front of him. He threw 15 pitches, 12 for strikes. Unless there is a trade, Will Smith remains the San Francisco closer and perhaps the most underrated of fantasy options. He is available in 81 percent of mixed leagues despite a 1.35 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and when the team generates save chances, he is their closer.

<strike></strike>W2W4:

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• I really doubt the Washington Nationals are going to trade outfielder Bryce Harper before the deadline, but time will tell. It sure seems like a three-team race in the NL East. They should have the deadline at midnight so we can watch players traded during games and hug their teammates goodbye. Makes for good theater.

• Colorado Rockies right-hander Jon Gray boasts the upside of a top-10 starting pitcher, but do not get the impression his only problem is starting in home games. Gray has been far worse this season in road games. He is pitching at St. Louis on Tuesday, and honestly, anything goes. Gray should be rostered in more than 60 percent of leagues on the chance he finds consistency with his occasional dominance. In his most recent outing, at Coors Field, he permitted the Astros one hit and one earned run over seven frames.

• Bartolo Colon is a .084 lifetime hitter with one memorable home run. The Rangers again visit Arizona on Tuesday and that means Colon gets to hit! I am in favor of the universal DH, but let us do it after Colon faces Zack Godley a few times, OK? As for relevant fantasy matters, I like Eduardo Escobar hitting in the No. 2 spot for Arizona, right before Paul Goldschmidt, and it sure does not look like Jake Lamb is returning from a shoulder injury anytime soon. Go get Escobar. Also, could Delino DeShields steal bases? Asking for a friend.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Aug 1, 2018

Which players got a boost at the trade deadline?

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Everyone wants to talk about the individual winners and losers from baseball's trade deadline on Tuesday, and my friend and ESPN colleague David Schoenfield covered that here, but for fantasy purposes, it is hard to find much that really changed.

Closer roles remained the same, as fellows like Kyle Barraclough, Sergio Romo and Kirby Yates did not move. Established starting pitchers and hitters did, but other than changing leagues and ballparks, Chris Archer is what he is and so is Jonathan Schoop. Bryce Harper stayed put, so Victor Robles stays in the minors. No prospects to pique our collective interest suddenly lucked into major playing time, at least not yet.

Regardless, I always have thoughts, and here are myriad from a fun and wild Tuesday afternoon that never actually had me checking out the free agency lists in my important fantasy leagues.

- Moving from the AL East to the NL Central and to a pitcher's park should

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aid new Pirates ace Archer, but he is already rostered in every league, and while his ERA should drop a bit and his strikeouts should rise as he faces more pitchers than designated hitters, he still is not what most drafted him to be. His career ERA is 3.69, and I will not predict he lowers it. Archer dropped out of my top-20 fantasy starting pitchers a few months ago. His addition will push out someone who is reasonable for NL-only leagues, likely Trevor Williams or Nick Kingham, and that is not good news.

- Initial reaction on Tampa Bay's return for Archer was too generous, probably because former players who analyze this stuff had heard of them but did not realize their actual value. Outfielder Austin Meadows hit for power upon promotion to Pittsburgh a few months ago and then, predictably, that ceased. The Pirates could have played him but opted against it. The Rays have sent him to Triple-A Durham, and perhaps he can find the plate discipline he used to have and develop, but he looks like a fourth outfielder. Even if Meadows gets 500 at-bats next season, I cannot project relevant fantasy numbers or, suddenly, durability.

- As for wild right-hander Tyler Glasnow, people have found many things on the west side of Florida, but control is rarely one of them. Glasnow throws hard and gets his first shot to show this for the Rays on Wednesday, but until he throws consistent strikes, if ever, you should pass. We shall see who the "player to be named" in this deal is and reserve comment until then.

- The Rays did well to get Tommy Pham from the Cardinals, but he was already a top-15 outfielder to me, so little alters. What is it about the Cardinals so quickly moving on from intriguing outfielders? A few years ago, it was Pham, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk. Each has moved on. My initial thought on the Pham deal was that it was great news for Harrison Bader, a potential five-category fantasy helper, but the Cardinals intend to timeshare him with Tyler O'Neill. Each bats right-handed. I do not get it. Oh well, Bader and O'Neill will likely be with other franchises in a year or so anyway.

- Jonathan Schoop might add shortstop eligibility in a month, so that is interesting for fantasy managers come September and 2019. One would presume the monster gains he has made at the plate the past month will not cease because he has gone from the awful Orioles to contending Brewers, but it is at least plausible that he loses some at-bats. Schoop is not a shortstop, nor is Mike Moustakas or Travis Shaw, but it seems like one of them needs to play there or someone has to sit. By the way, people are making this out to be a big deal. It is not. The Phillies are like the worst defensive team in the sport and still in first place.

- Brian Dozier was playing regularly for the Twins and will do so for the Dodgers, though he might end up hitting after the big bats in his new lineup, especially if he does not escape his current slump. He steals playing time from Chase Utley. I love Utley, but it has been years since someone in a fantasy league relied on him. The Twins could give prospect Nick Gordon a chance at second base, but I doubt they will. Logan Forsythe is actually a big winner here! He will play regularly. Awesome.

- You can keep telling me how great right-hander Kevin Gausman is going to be now that he escaped Baltimore -- like Cy Young award winner Jake Arrieta did! -- but I have to see consistency to believe it. Gausman actually reminds me a bit of his new Atlanta teammate Julio Teheran. How can these fellows not be better than their numbers? I feel like everyone will get too excited about Gausman now.

- Cameron Maybin was not stealing many bases for Miami, so I am not sure why that would alter with Seattle. The Mariners have Guillermo Heredia in center field, and he is reasonable, and think it is odd to believe when Robinson Cano comes off his suspension that Dee Gordon will never play the outfield again. I guess I just do not think Maybin will do much regardless.

- By the way, the Marlins promoted longtime minor league outfielder Isaac Galloway, and he got his first hit on Tuesday. Google him for a really cool interview from post game. Galloway was showing modest pop and good speed in the minors and could be intriguing in fantasy if permitted to play regularly.

- As a Phillies fan, I do like the Wilson Ramos addition, but it sure does not look like he is going to play in a big league game for most of August. I rank Ramos as a top-10 catcher and that is with knowing that of the final two months left, he might miss one of them. Such is the state of big league catching.

- Texas moved one of the potential save options when Jake Diekman took a bullpen cart from one side of Arizona's Chase Field to the other, but I still think it was going to be Jose Leclerc earning saves in the wake of the Keone Kela trade from Monday. More on saves in Wednesday's Closer Report.

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Daniel Murphy, 1B/2B, Washington Nationals: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI

• Javier Baez, 2B/SS/3B, Chicago Cubs: 3-for-4, HR, 3 RBI

• Kole Calhoun, OF, Los Angeles Angels: 3-for-4, HR, 3 RBI

• Zack Godley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

• Jake Arrieta, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Lowlights:

• Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Tyler Skaggs, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 3 1/3 IP, 8 H, 10 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

• Steven Matz, SP, New York Mets: 2/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

• Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

Tuesday takeaways:

In the @Nationals' record-setting win, Ryan Zimmerman went 2-5 with a homer and 3 RBI. His first-inning RBI single passed Tim Wallach for the most hits in Nationals/Expos history. pic.twitter.com/7s1aMaV3Mq
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 1, 2018

• The Nationals decided to keep on trying to win the NL East and then hung 25 runs on the beleaguered, embarrassing Mets. Even Zimmerman, hitting .226 with a lowly .699 OPS entering play and having not hit a home run in nearly three months, enjoyed his game and made franchise history along the way. The Nationals remain the most talented team in the division, even in their current injured state, but I would not get excited about Zimmerman; he is not playing regularly, thanks to health issues and might not be any more valuable than Mark Reynolds, who also homered Tuesday, albeit off a terrible infielder who ended up throwing 48 pitches. It was nice to see Daniel Murphy's sweet lefty swing, and I recommend him moving forward, but not Zimmerman. Outfielder Adam Eaton is not playing so regularly either, which is a reason to look elsewhere.

• Perhaps lost in the madness of the 25-4 game was Mets rookie Jeff McNeil slugging his first home run. Through seven games and 23 PA, he looks like he can help fantasy managers in deep leagues, and he is -- we presume -- going to play regularly. McNeil has excellent plate discipline and modest power. That might be enough.

• We have to talk about Colorado Rockies right-hander Jon Gray because his upside is of a top-20 starter for sure, regardless of home venue. Gray pitched well in St. Louis on Tuesday and has gone seven or more innings in each outing since his promotion, allowing 10 hits in 21 2/3 innings. He is missing bats and showing consistency, and frankly, that is all we desire, along with a sub-4.00 ERA. Gray should be rostered in many more leagues in case this continues.

Injuries of note:

• One could easily argue the biggest stories of Tuesday were the injuries to Boston Red Sox lefty Chris Sale and Houston Astros outfielder George Springer. With Sale, the team calls it mild shoulder inflammation. I think 80 percent of big league pitchers probably have some shoulder inflammation by August, so I do not want to panic here on the fellow I rank as fantasy's No. 3 starter. I think Sale misses only one start. I might not be as aggressive trading for him in ESPN leagues before our deadline, but the Red Sox have a little depth this week so why push Sale? Those relying on Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz saw little control and too many base runners on Tuesday, and he might get only one more start.

• Springer has left shoulder soreness after an actionable dive in the outfield, and that is a bigger deal. We saw him get hurt. I think a DL stint is coming and the Astros are suddenly vulnerable. Springer is not having quite the season expected, but remains a top-10 outfielder, though I will knock him down a bit now if he misses a few weeks. The Astros should let Kyle Tucker play regularly and raise his small-sample OPS about 300 points. Tucker is going to hit.

• Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts was hit on the hand by an errant pitch Tuesday and, oh no, that is pretty much what ruined his 2017 season. Bogaerts stayed in the game and had post-game X-rays that showed no issues, but if he does not hit in the next two weeks, I would be worried about the weeks after that.

Closing time:

• Cody Allen investors got great news when Brad Hand relieved Trevor Bauer in the seventh inning and Allen got the last four outs for the save. It does not mean Hand and Allen will enter the game in reversed hierarchy the next time the Indians lead in the eighth inning, but it is a good sign.

W2W4:

<strike></strike>• Well, who handles shortstop duties for the Brewers tonight against Dodgers lefty Rich Hill? The team could sit Moustakas or Shaw, each a lefty, and opt to go with the forgotten Orlando Arcia, who has not hit at all. I am actually a bit disappointed the Brewers did not find a new home for Arcia and demoted outfielder Domingo Santana. I was ready to add Santana in a league or two. Oh well. The Dodgers could bat Dozier anywhere from first to sixth in his debut. I suspect it will be first, but that .305 OBP does not excite.

• Cole Hamels makes his Cubs debut at Pittsburgh, and while fantasy managers should never overreact, the fact is Hamels has pitched well this season away from the cozy Texas ballpark and can still put up enticing numbers. If you add Hamels before this outing, you will be a step ahead of everyone else!

• I am as surprised as you are about Atlanta right-hander Anibal Sanchez, but fantasy managers have noticed his excellent numbers, which he should bolster even more against the Marlins. Sanchez remains available in roughly half of ESPN's standard leagues. It is August. He has done enough this season to convince me he is worth a fantasy roster spot.<strike></strike>

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HacheMan · Aug 1, 2018

Fantasy impact of prospects moved at the trade deadline

Tommy Rancel
ESPN INSIDER

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone. Despite the lack of a

Bryce Harper

megatrade, there was plenty of action leading up to and on the day of the deadline. We all know the veterans who will suit up for new teams, but what about the less-established players who will be donning new threads?

Some of the prospects involved have already reached the majors and should be in play immediately for their new clubs. Others are a little bit further behind, but factor into the plans over the next 12 months. Most importantly, they are all talented and likely will cost you less than their actual team paid to acquire their services.

I'll start with a familiar name: Austin Meadows.<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer> The ninth-overall selection in the 2013 draft was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays along with another top-10 prospect list alumni, Tyler Glasnow, and a player to be named later -- one who promises to be significant and not just a throw-in -- in exchange for Chris Archer. Meadows is a very talented player who took a little bit longer to reach the majors due to various nagging injuries over the past few seasons. He finally reached the bigs earlier this season, but with a crowded outfield in Pittsburgh, he found regular playing time hard to come by. The 23-year-old is hitting.292/.327/.468 in 165 plate appearances with most of the success coming early on when he received more action as an injury replacement.

Moving to Tampa Bay should allow him to play most days, if not every day, once he is called up. He was optioned to Triple-A Durham for now, but that should change once the dust settles from all the deadline dealing. The Rays are light on right-handed hitting outfielders, and Meadows has held his own against major league southpaws, which means he may hit his way out of a platoon. More power would be nice, but that has been said about him for a while now. Perhaps with a fresh start and consistent reps, he will tap into that reserve, because his athletic frame is built for it. As currently packaged, he is a plus-hitter with plus-speed and will be an above-average defender in a corner outfield spot.

Of all the prospect-types traded over the past week, Meadows is perhaps the one you want for 2018. He will be up sooner rather than later with the opportunity to grab the lion's share of playing time in a corner and probably hit in the top half of an increasingly competitive lineup. He is owned in just 12 percent of leagues, so there will be plenty of chances to scoop him up for free or close to it.

Another name to keep an eye on is Meadows' future teammate Jalen Beeks. Beeks had a disastrous debut for the Rays, allowing eight runs on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings. That said, it was his first game coming in after an "opener," which can take some getting used to. Beeks has an average fastball and a solid cutter. Sure, he'll have some mixed results without premier stuff, but he is left-handed with pitchability. For potential results, look no further than Ryan Yarbrough, who picked up his 10th win despite starting just five games in this hybrid role.

The traded prospect with the most potential impact remains Francisco Mejia. Now a part of the San Diego Padres' organization, the former Cleveland Indians backstop has an All-Star caliber bat at any position, with catching eligibility. Mejia is hitting .333 for the Padres' Triple-A affiliate since being moved, and .282 on the year. Remember, this comes after hitting under .200 in June 1. A switch-hitting catcher who can hit .300 and pop 15 home runs is someone to play really close attention to, especially in the coming weeks.

Looking beyond this season, there is a player you should know for 2019. In a rare prospect-for-prospect switch, the St. Louis Cardinals sent Oscar Mercado to the Indians in exchange for Conner Capel and Jhon Torres. Capel is an interesting player, but he is in A-ball, while Mercado is enjoying a fine campaign at the Triple-A level. A converted shortstop, Mercado is playing above-average center field with plus-speed and some pop. He could be in the talk for an outfield spot in Cleveland for Opening Day 2019 with the potential to collect 40 extra-base hits and 20-plus steals as a regular.

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HacheMan · Aug 2, 2018

Top fantasy baseball free agents by position

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

hether one is winning their fantasy league or struggling to compete, there are always undervalued free-agent options available with the potential to aid teams. That is the purpose of this weekly column, to pinpoint those options. So here we go, and remember players rostered in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues are not eligible for inclusion on this list.

Catcher:

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Robinson Chirinos, Texas Rangers (19.3 percent rostered): A repeat recommendation from last week, Chirinos keeps raising his batting average and even stole his second base of the season this week. He has easily been a top-10 catcher for the past 30 days, yet is somehow still readily available.

Francisco Arcia, Los Angeles Angels (12.9 percent): A career minor-leaguer debuting at 28, Arcia knocked in 10 runs in his first two starts, and that certainly tends to get noticed. Arcia hit three home runs in 43 games at Triple-A, so there is a good chance we have already seen his best.

Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins (6.2 percent): Garver produced nice power numbers in the minors and fantasy managers were wondering when he would get a chance to play. Now, he is playing.

Others: Jonathan Lucroy, Oakland Athletics; Blake Swihart, Boston Red Sox; Omar Narvaez, Chicago White Sox; Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds; Michael Perez, Tampa Bay Rays; Tom Murphy, Colorado Rockies

Corner infield:

Jake Bauers, Tampa Bay Rays (33.7 percent): Here's another repeat recommendation, but hey, the rookie is worth it. For all those concerned about power potential, Bauers has hit nine home runs in barely 200 plate appearances. His current batting average will rise. I understand why Matt Chapman, Maikel Franco and other corner infielders have vaulted past 50 percent rostered, but Bauers should be more popular, too. It is also a bit odd that teammate C.J. Cron, with a legit 22 home runs and still playing regularly, is as available as he is.

Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins (32 percent): A legit power hitter many suspected could hit 40 home runs, Sano has obviously struggled this season, and has not looked much better at the plate since coming back from the minors. Be patient, however, because power hitters like Sano are generally not sitting as free agents in standard mixed leagues.

<strike></strike>David Freese, Pittsburgh Pirates (3.5 percent): A veteran who has been playing more of late because of the Josh Bell injury, Freese took advantage of Mets pitching to hit a few home runs and knock in eight in one series. That is unlikely to continue, but Freese can hit left-handed pitching and the Pirates will utilize him while he is hot.

Trey Mancini and Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles (24.4 and 7.5 percent): Neither slugger is having the season expected of them, but both are among the top-20 corner infielders on the 15-day Player Rater, and both are capable of producing big power numbers. Mancini is obviously safer for batting average, but Davis has had double-digit homer months in the past.

Others: Albert Pujols, Angels; Kendrys Morales, Toronto Blue Jays; Joe Mauer, Twins; Lucas Duda, Kansas City Royals; Wilmer Flores, New York Mets

Middle infield:

Ben Zobrist, Chicago Cubs (47.3 percent): There is little debate that Zobrist was disappointing last season. However, in 2018, he has certainly hit for average and gotten on base. He is also scoring runs. It's time to stop avoiding this older option.

Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks (11.3 percent): A top defender, but an awful hitter until this season, Ahmed already has 14 home runs, and really did nice work in July when he hit .302. It seems strange to recommend this glove-first player, but the numbers are there.

Tim Beckham, Baltimore Orioles (4.8 percent): He's still not the most patient hitter, but he is leading off and has hit nicely since the Manny Machado trade, which returned him to shortstop. Perhaps that is all that he needed.

Jeff McNeil, New York Mets (1.8 percent): A 26-year-old rookie who offers modest pop and plate discipline, at least McNeil should play regularly for the final two months and can perhaps get his numbers that way.

Others: Yairo Munoz, St. Louis Cardinals; David Fletcher, Angels; Neil Walker, New York Yankees; David Bote, Cubs; Aledmys Diaz, Blue Jays

Outfield:

Harrison Bader, St. Louis Cardinals (2.9 percent): Bader and rookie Tyler O'Neill are expected to share center field duties with Tommy Pham having been traded to the Rays, but Bader is the better fantasy option. He can hit for average and he can steal bases, and he offers modest power. O'Neill has better power, but swings and misses a lot.

Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres (20.8 percent): Margot investors have had to wait months for this speedster to get going, but he has hit .290 since the start of June and stole four bases in five attempts in July. There is a future top-50 outfielder lurking here.

Mallex Smith, Tampa Bay Rays (17.5 percent): The Rays added several outfielders at the trade deadline, but Smith keeps playing and keeps running. He is among the league leaders in stolen bases and, while he offers little else to a fantasy roster, the steals are enough. His teammate Kevin Kiermaier offers more power potential, of course, and as the leadoff hitter scores more runs. He is available as well.

Cameron Maybin, Seattle Mariners (4.5 percent): The trade deadline deal to Seattle from Miami gives him more opportunity to play regularly, and we know Maybin is capable of stealing bases when healthy and, you know, able to get on base. The longer Dee Gordon keeps struggling, the more likely it is that Maybin could move to leadoff for this contending team.

Nick Williams, Philadelphia Phillies (10.8 percent): He does not appear a threat to hit 30 home runs, but the Phillies did not upgrade the outfield through trade. Williams has been a more patient hitter of late, and he hit .311 in July with five home runs.

Others: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jackie Bradley Jr., Red Sox; Randal Grichuk, Blue Jays; Steven Souza Jr., Diamondbacks; Daniel Palka, White Sox

Starting pitcher:

Mike Fiers, Detroit Tigers (24.6 percent): For years we waited for this right-hander to be consistent. He always offered strikeout potential. Fiers is not missing nearly as many bats as he used to, but has been surprisingly effective for a bad team. The upcoming schedule looks good for both him, as well as lefty teammate Matthew Boyd.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals (30.4 percent): A bust for much of the season, Roark has won his past two outings and struck out 18 hitters in the process. The Nationals can still win their division, which is hardly the greatest offensively, and Roark will make regular starts.

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds (41.4 percent): His fastball velocity is still not what it was last season, but the right-hander had nine strikeouts without a run allowed in his most recent outing, and seems to be turning a corner.

Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins (43.6 percent): Gibson is not winning many games, a by-product of the team he competes for, but he has kept his strikeout rate up all season. That's quite impressive for him, and his ERA and WHIP have remained usable. There is little reason to fear him now.

Zack Wheeler, New York Mets (38.3 percent): He was last a fantasy find in 2014, but the current Wheeler is going deeper into games and striking hitters out, and has even won his past three outings. On the Mets, that's hard to do.

Others: Carlos Rodon, White Sox; Vince Velasquez, Phillies; Trevor Richards, Miami Marlins; Adalberto Mejia, Twins; Lance Lynn, Yankees; Joe Musgrove, Pirates

Relief pitcher:

<strike></strike>Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays (35 percent): Exiled from Houston and likely to close games for Toronto right away, Giles has the skills to be a top-10 closer.

Will Smith, San Francisco Giants (24.8 percent): He is the lone Giants reliever getting save chances, and he is also putting up big numbers in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. There is no reason to avoid Smith anymore.

Wily Peralta, Kansas City Royals (13.6 percent): Somewhat similarly, the Royals are making it clear who gets the saves, and while Peralta is not a great pitcher, he has been getting as many save chances as the league leaders in the past month.

Others: Shane Greene, Tigers; Adam Ottavino, Rockies; A.J. Minter, Atlanta Braves; Pedro Strop, Cubs; Jose Leclerc, Rangers<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2018

Is Touki Toussaint here to stay with the Braves?

Tommy Rancel
ESPN INSIDER

In June of 2015, the Arizona Diamondbacks made a curious trade. Arizona acquired utility infielder Phil Gosselin in exchange for injured starter Bronson Arroyo and its 2014 first-round pick, Touki Toussaint. Although Arroyo and Gosselin were the two with major league experience, they were non-factors in this transaction. The principles here were Toussaint and money.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Arroyo, 38 at the time, was recovering from Tommy John surgery and owed just a little under $10 million on his contract. Dave Stewart, the Diamondbacks' general manager during the trade, publicly lauded Gosselin's grit and his team's starting pitching depth, but to everyone on the outside looking in, this was a salary dump. In exchange for taking Arroyo's contract, the Braves essentially bought a top pitching prospect in Toussaint.

A native of Pembroke Pines, Florida, Toussaint was the 16th overall pick in the 2014 draft. A tall, slender right-hander, he struggled in his first few months with the Braves. During the remainder of the 2015 season and into 2017, he tossed 181 innings for Atlanta's minor league affiliate in Rome. He walked a whopping 104 batters. And despite potential front-of-the-rotation stuff, he averaged less than a strikeout per inning.

Toussaint would break free from Rome in 2017, beginning the season in the Florida State League before a promotion to the Southern League at the end of the season. His control improved slightly, but the biggest change was strikeouts. With a slightly cleaner and more athletic motion, and increased effectiveness on his off-speed pitch, he struck out 167 batters in 145 innings. He had 166 strikeouts combined in the previous two years for the Braves.

Toussaint returned to Mississippi to begin 2018. He was extremely effective in 16 starts, collecting a sub-3 ERA and striking out 29 percent of batters faced. He was promoted to Triple-A Gwinnett, where he was even better in five starts. In 31 innings for the Stripers, he allowed just seven earned runs while striking out 32.

The Braves promoted Toussaint ahead of their doubleheader on Monday against the Miami Marlins. Facing what equated to an International League-caliber lineup, Toussaint went six strong innings to earn his first major league victory. He allowed a single run on two hits. He struck out four and walked two.

Toussaint is unlikely to turn into a control artist any time soon, although he did just turn 22 about six weeks ago. In lieu of pinpoint accuracy, he does have the arsenal to get outs otherwise. Against the Marlins, his fastball ranged from 92 to 96, fading a little at the end. His mid-70s curveball had big bite and was thrown for strikes as well as chases.

In the second inning, he struck out Yadiel Rivera on three pitches: all curveballs. The first two were called strikes in the zone. The third was buried just below for a swing and a miss. Showing the velocity gap between his fastball and curveball, take a look at the sequence he threw to the next batter, Pablo Lopez, that also resulted in a strikeout: 95, 76, 78, 95, 77, 96. That is a 20 mph gap, with the hardest pitch in the arrangement being a called third strike.

The fastball and breaking ball have been Toussaint's bread and butter in the minors, with the off-speed coming in a distant third. That said, on Monday it was a plate appearance ender. During the first time through the order, he used the split-fingered pitch sparingly. However, when Rafael Ortega came up for the second time, it was his go-to out pitch. He recorded seven of his final 12 outs with the mid-80s pitch. One came on a strikeout, while the other six never left the infield. Five outs were generated on the ground and the sixth was a pop up to Freddie Freeman.

<strike></strike>Despite the dazzling debut, Toussaint is far from a finished product. The control is still borderline, and although he dominated the Marlins' lineup, he got away with a few mistakes that could have been a problem against a more formidable opponent. But make no mistake, he is a major-league-caliber arm equipped with what looks to be two above-average pitches and the makings of a third.

Atlanta is flush with pitching. In addition to arms like Sean Newcomb and Mike Foltynewicz among others at the highest level, the farm boasts names like Toussaint, Kyle Wright, Kolby Allard, Ian Anderson, Mike Soroka and Luiz Gohara. Toussaint beat a handful of them to the show, but the competition for roster space will be fierce over the next 12 to 18 months.

Obviously, not all will live up to their potential, but if even half of them do, the Braves will be in a highly envious position and can name their price in trades. Whether Toussaint continues with Atlanta or is once again moved, just know that the better he gets, the higher the price tag will be. It will certainly take more than Phil Gosselin, who actually played behind him this year in a return to the Braves organization, to get him this time.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Aug 14, 2018

Does Ronald Acuna Jr. or Juan Soto have a brighter fantasy future?

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Perhaps people should not be so quick to award the NL Rookie of the Year award to Washington Nationals teenager Juan Soto. Nothing against Soto, hitting a cool .301 with power, but Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. made history Monday by leading off both games of a doubleheader with a home run, the first National Leaguer to ever do so and fourth hitter overall, and he has blasted one over the fence in four consecutive games and six of seven. Acuna is hitting .282 with 17 home runs for a first-place team, and he is earning raves at just the right time.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Fantasy managers love each of these players and should, although each remains available in nearly 10 percent of ESPN standard leagues. Do not read much into that; so many fantasy managers have moved on to football. Still, Acuna and Soto are baseball dynasty gold, young outfielders sure to produce major statistics for years to come. While Soto has displayed remarkable plate discipline for such a young player -- 53 walks versus 57 strikeouts in 74 games -- he looks like a four-category fantasy helper. Soto is not much of a base stealer, with two steals in three attempts. Acuna, however, is.

That is the main difference I see in evaluating future fantasy value here. Look at the current outfielders that grace the top of our rankings and there are few options there that do not contribute across the board.

Boston Red Sox

MVP candidate

J.D. Martinez

is an exception, but nobody has more home runs and runs batted in than he does, and he is also hitting .333.

New York Yankees

slugger

Giancarlo Stanton

is another exception. He has hit 89 home runs since the start of the 2017 season. I think Soto is a legitimate .300 hitter and should continue to develop power as he reaches his 20s -- OK, that is just ridiculous -- but is he a 40-homer option? His current numbers tell us that is eminently possible.

Acuna, a mere 10 months older than Soto by the way, stole his eighth base of the season in 10 chances on Monday and that valuable skill of his makes him a potential top-5 outfielder for fantasy purposes. It is a bit premature to make such a stance, but what about top-10? It might depend on what lineup spot Acuna settles into. He has been leading off lately and thriving, with a .360 batting average, 1.211 OPS and six of his stolen bases over 99 plate appearances in that role. His 10 home runs there have accounted for 20 RBI.

Mookie Betts

investors do not seem to be complaining that his 27 home runs have resulted in only 63 runs batted in. Betts does everything well. Acuna projects similarly, although he is a more aggressive hitter.

Regardless of how the NL East ends up, and Soto cannot aid his club with relief innings, this should be a fascinating finish for Acuna and Soto, two of the youngest players in baseball and among the hottest commodities for dynasty purposes. I think both these players deserve strong consideration for top-10 status among outfielders in 2019 drafts, perhaps pushing past proven veterans like Starling Marte, Christian Yelich, Khris Davis and Justin Upton. For now I think Acuna has the better shot because he will contribute in each of the five standard hitting categories, but each should be a top-50 option overall, at the least. The future is so bright.

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves: 5-for-8, 2 HR, 5 RBI, SB

• Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, Detroit Tigers: 5-for-5, HR, 5 RBI

• Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Cleveland Indians: 3-for-5, HR, 3 RBI

• Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

• Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K

Lowlights:

• Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees: 1-for-4, 3 K

• Chris Taylor, 2B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 1-for-4, 3 K

• Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees: 4 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

• Marco Gonzales, SP, Seattle Mariners: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K

• Scott Alexander, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Monday takeaways:

• Severino is obviously struggling, and if the Yankees enjoyed Dodgers-like rotation depth, he would probably be on the disabled list with some made-up injury just to give him a week or so off. The Yankees do not have that luxury, especially since lefty CC Sabathia was placed on the DL Monday with knee inflammation, and nobody is questioning whether it is true. Fantasy managers are in a tough jam with Severino because it is foolish to cut a top-10 starting pitcher, but leaving him active is harming chances of winning a title this season. We do not know if Severino is legitimately hurt, tired or simply in one of those stretches, albeit worse than typical, in which a pitcher just cannot pitch effectively. The schedule shows pending starts with the Blue Jays, Orioles and White Sox the rest of the month, which sounds great except Severino just got tuned up by the Mets, White Sox, Royals and Rays. Keep the faith but do it with Severino on your bench. Even the great ones trip up on occasion.

• San Diego Padres slugger Wil Myers, eligible for this season at first base and outfield but ticketed as outfield-only for 2019 in fantasy, played third base on Monday and this could continue. We would certainly welcome the added eligibility for fantasy! It takes 10 games in-season to trigger added eligibility and 20 games for next year. The Padres do possess considerable middle infield and outfield depth, and Eric Hosmer is signed to play first base for eternity, so it makes sense for the team to try an athletic player at a new spot. Myers played the position flawlessly in his debut and nearly set the club record for assists. Whether this continues -- his play or the opportunity -- is problematic. Myers has missed significant playing time with injury, but his current OPS is his best since his rookie season, and he is hitting for power and stealing bases. This is a potential top-10 outfielder and, hey, perhaps a top-10 third baseman as well.

Injuries of note:

• Surprising news from the St. Louis Cardinals as right-hander Carlos Martinez, on the disabled list multiple times this season for various woes, is being shifted to a bullpen role for the rest of the season. He was a top-20 starter back in March, with upside for more, and this alteration in his role is a big deal for fantasy unless there are saves in his future, and there is little indication of that. In fact, if Bud Norris were to lose the closer role, and Monday's performance continued to push that possibility, hard-throwing Jordan Hicks or even fellow rookie Dakota Hudson would appear to be next in line. Martinez could be a middle reliever. Ugh. For now, keep Martinez rostered in 10-team leagues in case the Cardinals change their minds, but if they do not, then yes, move on. The organization claims Martinez will be used as a starter in 2019, but if they are so worried about the pitcher's health then they could change that without warning. If you can still trade Martinez in a dynasty league, now would be a good time to do so.

• Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre keeps having problems with his hamstrings and another DL stint seems plausible after Monday's re-injury. Beltre, 39, is hitting .278 this season but sans his normal power and plate discipline, and that is a problem for fantasy managers that might have had enough. Beltre is rostered in roughly half of ESPN's standard leagues and by the way, the Rangers are not postseason bound so there would be no rush to bring Beltre back to active duty. His price will surely be depressed in 2019 drafts, making him a prime late-round sleeper, and after years of arguing for him as a top-100 option, it has come time to stop.

Closing time:

• It is hard to fathom what has happened to the Dodgers and Nationals of late in terms of injuries and blown leads. The Dodgers turned to lefty Scott Alexander to protect the Clayton Kershaw lead and things went awry. I really believe right-hander Kenta Maeda, who should be ready to pitch after his most recent starting assignment, could get the next save chance. It could also be Ross Stripling. The latest on Kenley Jansen and his heart ailment are that he could need offseason surgery, and one wonders if the Dodgers simply accelerate the procedure and his next mound appearance comes in 2019.

• The Nationals keep finding entertaining ways to lose games, and their Monday mess seemed like a season low point, as they blew the lead in the eighth inning, tied the game in the ninth and still lost on a Paul DeJong home run. Koda Glover has to be the leader for the next save because even manager Dave Martinez seems unusually flummoxed about his next move. Perhaps there will be another reliever or two, even a closer, traded in the coming days like Fernando Rodney was last week. The Nationals' next save chance might go to someone not currently on the roster.

W2W4:

<strike></strike>• Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano is finally eligible to play Tuesday after serving all of his 80-game suspension and while he is among the most added players in ESPN leagues, he remains available in more than a quarter of them. Do not kid yourself on Cano -- he can still hit and matter in all fantasy formats. The Mariners seemed loath to play him at second base with Dee Gordon entrenched there, but Gordon has not hit, was dropped to last in the lineup and he did not play Monday because of a shoulder injury. Look for Cano to handle second base on Tuesday, and he will hit.

• The streaking first-place Braves get to feast on more Marlins pitching and will ask right-hander Anibal Sanchez to deal with what is left of the lineup. Sanchez left his most recent outing after a comebacker struck his calf, but the club says he is ready to pitch again and his 2.83 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and excellent strikeout rate make him absolutely worth using against Miami.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Aug 15, 2018

Karablog: Trevor Bauer injury fallout

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

ometimes it sure feels like fantasy managers just cannot continue to enjoy nice things. Cleveland Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is having an amazing breakout season. He is No. 12 on the overall, full-season Player Rater and fifth among the starting pitchers -- this after entering the 2018 season with a 4.36 career ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

Bauer always seemed to possess breakout upside due to his willingness to think and explore information deeper than most to improve, his unique methods for preparation and, of course, his ability to strike hitters out. I had long speculated that Bauer was capable of a great season and now ... well, I enjoyed those 25 starts, because who knows when No. 26 will come.

Most of us probably thought little of Bauer getting struck by a Jose Abreu liner off his right leg on Saturday night, especially when the Indians did not seem particularly concerned in the days afterward. They are concerned now. Bauer suffered a small stress fracture in the fibula and likely will sit for at least a few weeks.

Ordinary right-hander<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"> Adam Plutko, sputtering in strikeout rate and permitting too many home runs, takes Bauer's rotation place, and truth be told, the Indians could still win the AL Central sans Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Mike Clevinger as well. That is what concerns me a tad about their starters for fantasy.

</offer>The Indians are cruising toward October, and while Bauer's injury should not keep him out for the final seven weeks of the regular season, the organization has little incentive to push him. They want him healthy for Game 2 or 3 of the AL Division Series against Houston, Oakland or, I suppose, Seattle. The Red Sox are going to play the wild-card winner, if you haven't guessed. Bauer has time. The Indians can rest or adjust the innings for the other right-handers at their whim as well.

I would continue to roster Bauer in all formats because he is great and there is little reason for concern when he does pitch again, but even the healthy Indians starters are likely to see some reduction in participation down the stretch. Why wouldn't the Indians be extra careful?

<strike></strike>Bauer's ascension to fantasy ace certainly took a few years after the large December 2012 three-team trade also involving the Diamondbacks and Reds (Didi Gregorius and Shin-Soo Choo were in that one too), and fantasy managers will naturally be curious about the next pitcher to emerge as super relevant. That seems like a blog entry for another day, but Bauer always showed the skills, mindset and durability for a potential rise to stardom and this past offseason adjusted his mechanics, notably his slider. Consistency has not been an issue, which is a big reason he has been able to shave two runs off his ERA. Bauer has not permitted more than four earned runs in any outing.

Regardless, wait it out for Bauer because he has been that special. If you are looking for replacement options, and really, one should always be on the lookout even if all their starters are thriving, then look at Washington's Tanner Roark, Detroit's Matthew Boyd, Cincinnati's Anthony DeSclafani, Philadelphia's Nick Pivetta, Colorado's German Marquez, Oakland's Trevor Cahill and the Angels' Jaime Barria.

<strike></strike>All are among the top 50 starters available in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues who have pitched well of late. Look at future matchups, and better yet, simply stream from week to week. Roark is on the schedule to face the Phillies twice the rest of the month. Cahill has Houston twice. Go with Roark there.

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Adalberto Mondesi, 2B, Kansas City Royals: 4-for-4, 3 SB

• Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

• Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

• Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago Cubs: 5 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

• Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals: 4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K

• Anibal Sanchez, SP, Atlanta Braves: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Tuesday takeaways:

Felix Hernandez made 398 career starts before entering tonight's game as a reliever.
Only Mike Mussina started more games before his first relief appearance. Mussina's first (and only) regular season relief appearance came after he made 498 starts.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/1hcDND6IQN
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 15, 2018

• Hernandez was needed in relief Tuesday because lefty James Paxton, such a durable fellow, left after Oakland's Jed Lowrie, the third batter of the game, lined a pitch off Paxton's forearm. Paxton will miss next week's outing against the Astros and perhaps more after that. With Paxton, one never really knows for sure. He has made 24 starts this season, tying his career best set a year ago, and he is among the top 20 starters on the Player Rater. He is worth waiting for, even though he is frustrating. Hernandez, meanwhile, pitched capably in relief and remains rostered in nearly 20 percent of leagues, despite a 5.62 ERA. Do not roster King Felix anymore!

• Paxton's quick exit overshadowed the long-awaited return of Robinson Cano, who batted second and singled in four at-bats, doing so as the first baseman. Dee Gordon returned to the lineup to handle second base and batted last. Cano can still hit. He might not hit for a ton of power, since it's inconsistent with him, but he should hit. I wonder if he'll be in Wednesday's lineup against lefty Brett Anderson, since Ryon Healy really hits lefties and one would think he would be in the lineup somewhere. The Mariners have a designated hitter already. They have a second baseman, though he can play outfield. They have a third baseman. Cano could be platooned.

• On the other spectrum from an older middle infielder is Adalberto Mondesi of the Royals, who became the rare player to steal three bases in a game while recording four hits. Mondesi can clearly run, and he can do so even while hitting last in the lineup. The .279 batting average was .256 when the day began, and there is not the least bit of indication Mondesi will exhibit even the smallest bit of plate discipline. He has three walks versus 37 strikeouts. Mondesi is 22, so perhaps he can learn, but this is who he is. I think Mondesi can steal 40-plus bases next season if he wants, but it might come with a .280 OBP and no power. This is Dee Gordon, but hey, we all need stolen bases.

• I have been resisting the notion to recommend San Diego Padres shortstop Freddy Galvis because, well, he's not a good hitter, but he has swatted home runs in three consecutive games and five of nine. He has 10 home runs for the season. I do not think it will last, but perhaps the motivation of crushing his former Phillies organization over the weekend has resulted in an alteration of launch angle or whatever. Crazy things happen in this game. Galvis has as many home runs in nine games as Buster Posey has in 2018.

Injuries of note:

• Not that anyone could recommend Nationals right-hander Ryan Madson anyway, but he is on the DL with a back injury, joining teammates Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera. Koda Glover has retired five hitters in the big leagues this season and will get the next save chance. Wow.

Closing time:

• The Dodgers turned to right-hander Kenta Maeda in a 1-1 game in the ninth inning, and he promptly turned it into a 2-1 loss. Ross Stripling is dealing with a back injury, so look for Maeda and perhaps lefty Scott Alexander, last men standing in a way, to keep getting late-inning chances.

<strike></strike>• The Twins gave right-hander Trevor Hildenberger another save chance, and he converted it without incident, so those who added Addison Reed after the Fernando Rodney trade cannot be pleased. Reed last pitched six days ago. He is certainly rested. Perhaps the Twins are trying to trade him. Hildenberger appears to be the closer.

W2W4:

• The Phillies look to split the two-game series with the Red Sox, just like they did a few weeks ago, and could have catcher Wilson Ramos in the lineup. Ramos came over from the Rays, but he has been on the DL with a hamstring injury. He would provide an offensive upgrade for a sputtering team in desperate need of it. The Phillies also altered the normal lineup Tuesday against Rick Porcello, moving Rhys Hoskins to cleanup and Nick Williams to second. They scored one run, on a Hoskins blast.

• Keep an eye on young Angels infielder Taylor Ward, as he had three hits and a walk in his debut on Tuesday and figures to handle regular third base duties as long as he hits. Ward hit .352 at Triple-A with eight home runs and 10 steals in 60 games. The Angels should also feature right-hander Felix Pena for the night game in San Diego on ESPN+, and Pena has permitted three earned runs or fewer in every outing except one this season. That one outing was bad, of course, but in the bigger picture Pena has done OK.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Aug 20, 2018

Karablog: How to handle late-season injuries

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

New York Yankees

shortstop

Didi Gregorius

seems ticketed for the disabled list after his awkward first-base collision with

Toronto Blue Jays

designated hitter

Kendrys Morales

on Sunday, and fantasy managers in weekly leagues should plan for other options. Gregorius injured his heel and needed a hospital visit for further testing, which seems unusual and quite the harbinger as well. The Yankees can simply move

Gleyber Torres

to his position, but fantasy managers might not be so lucky.

Gregorius is an interesting study, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">and if the organization expects his absence to last more than a few weeks, fantasy managers should move on. After all, for roto leagues, there are six weeks left, and in head-to-head formats, considerably less with the playoffs looming. Gregorius is a top-10 shortstop on the full-season Player Rater, but even that is a bit deceiving, as 10 of his 22 home runs came in the first month as well as 30 of the 74 runs batted in. He really has not been a top-10 shortstop since May began.

</offer>Fantasy managers often make the mistake of studying full-season numbers rather than recent trends. Gregorius has done just fine the past three months, hitting an aggregate .292 with 11 home runs and 39 RBIs, which is certainly usable in most fantasy leagues, but relatively easy to replace depending on need. Amed Rosario, Willy Adames and Adalberto Mondesi steal bases; Nick Ahmed, Marcus Semien and apparently Freddy Galvis offer pop; Joey Wendle, David Bote and Niko Goodrum a combination of each.

Torres moving from second base to shortstop -- his original position in the minor leagues -- is not only a natural move for the Yankees but likely the future one as well, and Gregorius, assuming this is not a significant injury that affects 2019, could be moving on to another club this winter. This is good news for Torres dynasty league managers, who would earn middle infield eligibility at both spots, but Gregorius leaving the middle of a power-packed lineup is not a positive.

Still, judging Gregorius even if he remains a Yankee is up for debate, because he was unable to continue the momentum from his aberrant April, when he drew more walks than strikeouts and featured an unsustainable fly ball rate. That was all, really. Gregorius hit .327 that month, hardly outrageous. This was about the fly balls. The rate of Gregorius's home runs to fly balls was 24.4 percent in April, 12th in baseball. (Matt Davidson had a ridiculous 52.9 HR/FB rate!) Since then, the rate is in single digits, matching his career rate.

None of this means Gregorius is not a valuable fantasy asset, as he was an 11th-round choice in ESPN average live drafts and 10th among shortstops this season, but his value would drop some with another club. Still, even in this power era, not many shortstops are good for 25 blasts per season. Gregorius, if he plays in September, should get there, and good luck finding any shortstop with three consecutive seasons of 20 or more home runs. Carlos Correa did it, but that streak likely ends this season.

<strike></strike>

[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

• Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4-for-5, HR, 5 RBI

• Starlin Castro, 2B, Miami Marlins: 5-for-6, 3 R

• Jose Urena, SP, Miami Marlins: 9 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

• Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Lowlights:

• Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals: 0-for-5, 5 K

• Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals: 4 2/3 IP, 10 H, 8 ER, 4 BB, 5 K

• Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Chicago White Sox: 2 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

• Sean Manaea, SP, Oakland Athletics: 4 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 5 K

Thursday takeaways:

With his win over the #Athletics, Justin Verlander earned his 200th career win.
The @astros starter joins Bartolo Colon & C.C. Sabathia as the only active pitchers with 200 wins and 2,500 strikeouts.
His 200 wins are the most of any pitcher since he debuted in 2005. pic.twitter.com/hX558Y89I9
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 19, 2018

• Verlander remains the No. 3 starter on the full-season Player Rater behind Max Scherzer and infirmed Chris Sale despite the fact he has produced quality starts in only three of his past seven outings. He is not exactly struggling like Yankees right-hander Luis Severino, but still, Verlander allowed three home runs on Sunday to the powerful Athletics and a startling 14 blasts in those seven starts. The upcoming schedule for the future Hall of Famer features two outings against the Angels and then one with the Twins, but even if he were facing Boston or the Yankees, I could not make much of a case to sit Verlander. He is not struggling like Severino, who by the way beat the Blue Jays on Saturday but lasted a mere five innings along the way.

• As for Sale, he is back on the disabled list with shoulder inflammation, and I will write the same thing I did when this news first disseminated two weeks ago: Many pitchers are dealing with similar maladies, but they are not on teams plowing their way to 110 wins. If Severino deals with this, and perhaps he is, the Yankees would not be in the same position to rest him. Sale pitched a few days ago and fanned 12 Orioles over five shutout, dominant frames. I expect Sale returns the first week of September and the team utilizes him carefully down the stretch, but he can still aid fantasy managers. Mike Trout, for example, concerns me a lot more. The Angels might shut him down any minute.

• The White Sox made big news Sunday by announcing top pitching prospect Michael Kopech, who routinely sails past 100 mph with his fastball, is being called up to start against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. Kopech is a potential fantasy ace, but those expecting monster numbers this season should be wary. Kopech throws extremely hard and recently his control has been terrific, but there is a big difference between Triple-A hitters and Miguel Sano and his teammates, plus it is a different baseball and not all young hurlers quickly adapt. Add Kopech to fantasy teams but keep expectations in check.

• Some surprising names among the top 10 on the seven-day Player Rater, including Milwaukee right-hander Jhoulys Chacin, Mets shortstop Amed Rosario and third baseman Todd Frazier, plus Texas Rangers closer Jose Leclerc. Ronald Acuna Jr. leads the list by a lot and continues to look like at least a top-10 outfielder for next season, and perhaps a top-20 player overall.

Health report:

• In addition to Boston's Sale, who went fourth among starting pitchers in ESPN ADP, there are three other top-20 options with the DL asterisk next to their name but different levels of news surrounding them. The Nationals expect to get right-hander Stephen Strasburg back from the DL for Wednesday against the Phillies. The Phillies do not hit much, but who knows if Strasburg will be handled carefully on a pitch count. He is not an automatic active for me. The Cubs really want right-hander Yu Darvish back, but he had a setback with his arm over the weekend, and it seems to me he is not particularly close to starting in a big league game. I have already moved on in a standard league. St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez is mending from shoulder woes but apparently headed to the bullpen, which means those in fantasy leagues can actually drop him, as sad as that sounds.

• Ervin Santana is not a top-20 starting pitcher, even though he finished as one in 2017. The current version is back on the DL with the same finger problem, which was not permitting him to throw as hard as in the past. Forget about Santana for 2018 and watch him surprise in 2019.

Closing time:

• It appears time to move on from Brewers right-hander Corey Knebel, as even in low-leverage outings of late he has not been able to avoid problems. Knebel pitched twice in the past week, far from save chances, and lefty Josh Hader is likely in the role with right-hander Jeremy Jeffress next in line. Yep, Knebel was a top-five closer on draft day. Do not draft closers in the top-100 overall on draft day! Why does nobody listen to this?

• We talked about the Nationals' bullpen on Monday's Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast (yep, still going twice a week!). Tristan H. Cockcroft and I generally agreed that Kelvin Herrera should come off the DL this week and handle closing duties over Koda Glover, but lefty Sean Doolittle remains in play and could lead the team in saves the rest of the season. There is also major injury risk with Doolittle, as he alters his mechanics, and it seems silly for a sub-.500 team to risk anything with a player returning in 2019.

W2W4:

</article>

• Minnesota replaces Santana in the rotation with lefty prospect Steven Gonsalves, as he faces the White Sox at home. Gonsalves pitched well at Triple-A, but control remains an issue, as he walked 55 hitters in 100 innings. That will not translate well in the majors. Just ask Monday's pitching opponent Lucas Giolito, who has issued 72 walks in 131 2/3 innings this season, an astronomical rate topped by only Cubs right-hander Tyler Chatwood. I would activate neither Gonsalves nor Giolito Monday.

• Fresh off salvaging a game against division rival Oakland on Sunday, the Astros face the Mariners, and it is possible they will have the services of second baseman Jose Altuve, apparently healthy from his knee injury. Perhaps Altuve comes off the DL Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless, the time is nigh. Yuli Gurriel, incidentally, has played 10 games at second base in his absence, triggering new and valuable eligibility for 2018. He needs 10 more games to be eligible there in 2019.

• The Cardinals have decided to move Luke Weaver to the bullpen and left-hander Austin Gomber, coming off consecutive scoreless outings against the Nationals and Royals, pitches in L.A. against the Dodgers. Gomber is a walker and unlikely to continue his success, and I would not activate him for the week, since the second scheduled outing is at Coors Field. Watch the Cardinals rotation, even sans Weaver and Martinez, because it is interesting.

[SUB][SUP]<strike>
</strike>[/SUP][/SUB]

HacheMan · Aug 21, 2018

Karablog: What to make of Kenley Jansen's return to the mound

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

When word became public that

Los Angeles Dodgers

right-hander

Kenley Jansen

, the top closer from ESPN average live drafts and a top-five option on the Player Rater, was dealing with an irregular heartbeat and would be shelved for an undetermined amount of time, a small number of fantasy managers predictably moved on. Jansen remains rostered in 94 percent of standard leagues, but that number was down to roughly 90 percent a few days ago. After all, anything dealing with the heart sounds serious, and Jansen has bigger concerns than a drop in fastball velocity.

As a result, it was a bit surprising when the Dodgers announced Monday that Jansen would return to the team so quickly, and had any fantasy managers asked my opinion about activating him for their teams, I would have replied affirmatively. Who would not? Jansen struggled in April with decreased velocity, permitting eight runs (he allowed 11 runs all last season) and three home runs. His strikeout rate was down, but still strong. The .262 batting average against was a surprise since it did not come with a bloated BABIP. Jansen was suddenly ordinary. But he turned things around after the first month. He allowed seven runs in the next three months. Again, why would we not activate him in daily and weekly formats?

Well, everyone thinks they know more the morning after, and Jansen's return to the mound was not such a successful one as St. Louis Cardinals sluggers Jedd Gyorko and Matt Carpenter homered consecutively to lead off the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on Monday, the winning runs in a 5-3 victory. Jansen did not look quite right, which is somewhat expected after a two-week layoff. The Dodgers did not exactly ease him back, as he entered a tie game in the ninth inning. Each home run was a blast over the center-field fence, but still short of 400 feet. Jose Martinez followed by lining out to center field, then Paul DeJong struck out. Then after a Marcell Ozuna single -- also to center field, as hitters were seeing and barreling Jansen's offerings well -- a Tyler O'Neill whiff ended the inning. Jansen last allowed multiple home runs in a game in 2013.

Fantasy managers love to overreact to everything but it is a bit tough to send the alarm bells over this. Who knows how much Jansen was able to throw over the past fortnight as he told reporters an offseason surgery was likely. I maintain that if Jansen was on the Washington Nationals or San Francisco Giants right now, two teams that have gleaned reality of golfing in October and will sell off parts this week, he would not be pitching at all. The Dodgers would never endanger his health, of course, but they can still win the World Series, and Jansen is a big key. If you are a Jansen fantasy investor, keep the faith. It is not like a pitcher or backup catcher Francisco Pena took him deep. Gyorko has big power, even against right-handers, and Carpenter is torturing all hurlers.

The next Jansen outing will tell us a bit more, and I would not expect it to come on Tuesday. Jansen threw 24 pitches against the Cardinals and velocity on his signature cutter was down again, and he seemed to lean on it more than normal. Jansen barely throws his slider, but one-pitch relievers can still succeed. Mariano Rivera did. I chalk up Monday's outing to circumstance; Jansen had not pitched in a game for a few weeks and the hitters, one of them leading the National League in home runs, knew what pitch was coming and at what nominal speed. Stuff happens. Keep Jansen active in fantasy but be prepared for more surprises in this unfortunate saga, too. Perhaps we get 10 awesome innings and as many saves the rest of the regular season or ... nothing, which is why those rostering Kenta Maeda, recently moved to the bullpen, should keep him for a bit longer just in case.

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI

<strike></strike>• Kendrys Morales, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners: 3-for-5, HR, 3 RBI

• Mike Fiers, SP, Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

• Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

• Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Todd Frazier, 3B, New York Mets: 0-for-5, 3 K

• Bartolo Colon, SP, Texas Rangers: 5 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

• Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

• Stephen Gonsalves, SP, Minnesota Twins: 1 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Monday takeaways:

Bryse Wilson is the youngest pitcher with a scoreless start in his MLB debut since Scott Kazmir in 2004.
Wilson is the third Braves 20-year-old to make his MLB debut in a start this season.
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) Aug. 21, 2018

• The bigger-named pitching prospect debuting Monday was Twins lefty Gonsalves, and that did not go well. Gonsalves escaped the first inning after allowing two hard-hit singles, but four runs scored in the second inning after several hits, several walks and a hit batter. Gonsalves dealt with control problems in the minors, and he is surely dangerous in fantasy for future outings until he shows he can throw strikes consistently. As for Bryse Wilson, the third 20-year-old pitcher to debut for the Atlanta Braves this season, he started the season in High-A ball and moved quickly. He fanned 139 hitters over 123 2/3 innings. It all looks legit, and he mowed down the Pittsburgh Pirates in his five innings, needing 87 pitches. The Pirates, it should be noted, have struggled offensively of late, scoring five runs in the four-game weekend series with the Chicago Cubs, including a pair of 1-0 losses. Still, keep an eye on Wilson in September, if rotation opportunity arises. For now, that was simply a spot start.

• The Giants outlasted the Mets in 13 innings, and outfielder Andrew McCutchen singled and walked in six plate appearances, dropping his batting average to .257. He has 14 home runs and 11 stolen bases, which is relatively ordinary, and 35 outfielders rank better on the Player Rater, so McCutchen has not really returned his draft-day value. He is in the news because he has been placed on revocable waivers, which means a contending team figures to acquire him in the coming days. We will write about that in this space when we know the team because McCutchen could be like new Philadelphia Phillies acquisition Justin Bour and out of the regular lineup. Regardless, McCutchen is rostered in 92 percent of leagues, which seems like too much and likely due to name value.

• After missing some starts with a hip injury, Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Martinez hit second against the Dodgers and homered off lefty Alex Wood in the very first inning. Martinez is hitting .309 with power, and .424 over 35 plate appearances in the No. 2 spot. We like those numbers.

• Oakland right-hander Fiers is now the No. 30 starting pitcher on the season Player Rater, much to the surprise of many fantasy managers because he remains available in more than half of ESPN's standard leagues. What more does this fellow need to do? Fiers has had a checkered career that did not quite live up to expectations or his skills, I admit, but he has not permitted more than three runs in a start since June. His strikeouts are up as of late. Go get this pitcher.

Health report:

• We find Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo on the DL again with a bruised finger, and while he should return for next week's games, it is obvious that the surprising power run he showed months ago was not sustainable. Still, Nimmo can be a decent player, and if he is promised regular playing time next season, one could do worse for a fifth outfielder. Perhaps 12 homers and 15 steals? The Mets are playing first baseman Dominic Smith in left field, which seems utterly ridiculous, but this is the Mets, after all. Smith can neither defend at that position nor hit enough to warrant any starting role, methinks.

• Baltimore Orioles outfielder Mark Trumbo can hit, but not from the DL, which is where he landed with right knee inflammation. Trumbo has 17 home runs in barely half a season of at-bats, which is nice. He could hit 30 next year and be a cheap fantasy option, but has to stay healthy. Perhaps he returns to the Orioles before September and blasts a few in the final weeks, but that is about all he offers.

Closing time:

• In non-Jansen news, the Braves went with right-hander Dan Winkler to close out the feeble Pirates, in part because lefty closer A.J. Minter was dealing with back tightness but also because the Pirates sent all right-handed hitters to the plate in the ninth inning. Winkler could get more chances. It seems unlikely Arodys Vizcaino figures into the save picture anytime soon.

W2W4:

<strike></strike>• All eyes will be on the Chicago White Sox versus the Twins as fireballer Michael Kopech debuts. Kopech has been extra stingy with the walks over the past few months but still remains risky for fantasy purposes. There should be strikeouts, of course. Kopech regularly hits 100 mph with his fastball.

• The Houston Astros turn to right-hander Brad Peacock in a bullpen game, and it marks the first time all season one of the five rotation members does not start. Hard to believe any team can make it five months with only five starters, but the Astros did it. Peacock is not likely to go deep enough to win this one, so he is not a great addition for daily fantasy. The Astros should also have Jose Altuve back from the DL, and he should obviously be activated in all formats right away.

• The Nationals could trade second baseman Daniel Murphy as soon as Tuesday after his claiming, so watch where he goes and if regular at-bats are projected. Wilmer Difo figures to handle the second-base duties but that is not inspiring for fantasy since he does not steal the bases we think he could.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Aug 22, 2018

Karablog: Why bad news about Buster Posey may actually be good

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Apparently, Buster Posey and the San Francisco Giants knew all along that the future Hall of Fame catcher, clearly impaired for months by some injury that was suppressing power, needed hip surgery. They did not share this information because, well, why would anyone ever share anything and give the opponent any edge, or pacify any fans?

I'm not sure that in this particular case it mattered, but in any event, the bottom line mercifully became public on Tuesday and Posey -- the No. 2 catcher way back in ESPN average live drafts and a fifth-rounder overall -- could see resolution to his challenging season any day now with surgery being the planned directive.

Regardless, Posey is currently the No. 6 catcher on the full-season Player Rater, which is quite impressive considering the serious hip injury with which he has been playing, not to mention the demands of "donning the tools of ignorance." Most of us could not crouch 10 times in a week, let alone hundreds of times per night.

Posey is still hitting .286 and there's nothing wrong with that. Fantasy managers with Mike Zunino in their lineups perhaps would not kill for that average, but they'd certainly prefer it. Posey boasts a strong walk rate and does not strike out in abundance, so the plate discipline remains. He simply has not been able to drive the baseball with nearly as much authority as in the past, thus he's had fewer home runs over five months than Ronald Acuna Jr. recently had in a one-week stretch.

Posey is 31 years old, and other than the aberrant Yadier Molina, catchers tend to see a sharp decline in both production and health when the first number of their age becomes a three. Sometimes they move to first base, too. Posey's future value depends on his ability to return at full strength from the surgery, which again, could occur either this week or in October.

Posey's investors would surely choose the latter. After all, even in his current state of statistical underachievement (and we are not blaming him for it), he remains valuable. However, I was speaking recently about Posey's value for 2019 drafts and was not so kind. With this injury news, we should now have some degree of clarity. Perhaps Posey can hit .306 with 15 home runs next season, matching his career batting average and three-year average for power. We would like that!

In a general sense, Posey is certainly not a strong investment, because of his age and the hip problem, which could delay the start of his 2019 season. As of now, I don't plan to rank any catcher in my overall top 100. I'm bothered by the Posey injury, the wreck that became New York Yankees star Gary Sanchez, and the odd failings of Chicago Cubs youngster Willson Contreras, who really has no excuse of which we're aware. In fact, Miami Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, who we all thought would be playing anywhere but in Miami by this point, is the lone backstop safely among the top 100 hitters on the season Rater. Why invest in this position?

<strike></strike>Catchers are hitting worse than ever, perhaps because of the demands of the position and nearly every pitcher throwing fastballs in triple digits. They are poor fantasy investments in dynasty leagues and redraft formats, and yes, I have been noting this about Posey himself for a while. Although he has been the most consistent catcher, his overall numbers still pale in comparison to the actual sluggers easily being selected in the fifth and sixth rounds: Oakland's Khris Davis is a game or two away from his third-consecutive 40-homer campaign and was a seventh-round choice.

Stop doing that. Take your catchers in the final rounds. I rostered Molina in myriad leagues because the price was great, often as late as Round 20. Next season that guy might be Austin Hedges, Jorge Alfaro or Danny Jansen. Take a chance and in one-catcher formats on ESPN, because there is always someone else.

Posey's greatness is not to be diminished in this space, for he has played many seasons at a special level -- and even this season remains valuable. Still, the end is nigh for his active duty, and it seems to depend on whether the Giants lose a few games this week and fall farther out of the wild-card race. (It seems silly to me to wait, because the Giants should want their franchise player at full strength for spring training, but teams do silly things all the time. Look at the Nationals selling three weeks after the trade deadline.)

In summary, a healthy Posey still feels like a top-5 catcher for 2019 drafts -- after Realmuto, Sanchez, Contreras and perhaps Yasmani Grandal or Wilson Ramos. I don't know quite yet, but I do know that I feel better about his current season, confusingly enough, after hearing about his injury.

We have clarity. We can move on.

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: 3-for-3, HR, 3 RBI
Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland Indians: 3-for-4, HR, 2 RBI
Brett Anderson, SP, Oakland Athletics: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Kevin Gausman, SP, Atlanta Braves: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Lowlights:

Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: 0-for-4, 4 K
Greg Bird, 1B, New York Yankees: 0-for-6, 3 K
Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 4 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sal Romano, SP, Cincinnati Reds: 5 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Boston Red Sox: 5.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Tuesday takeaways:

Dansby Swanson had his 1st career multi-HR game yesterday. At 24 years old, He's the youngest @Braves player with a multi-HR game since -- Ronald Acuña Jr., like a week ago. pic.twitter.com/sEVfmLrlz7
-- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 22, 2018

It doesn't appear as if Atlanta's Swanson is going to become a standout fantasy option anytime soon, but then again, he is just 24 years old and in his second season. The fact that he was selected with the very first pick in the amateur draft, one spot ahead of Houston Astros star Alex Bregman, is a bit irrelevant. Perhaps Swanson simply needs more time. Hitting a pair of home runs off right-handed pitching on Tuesday at Pittsburgh is a nice sign. I don't think we expected Swanson to hit 20 home runs or steal 20 bases. We evaluated him as a smart player who would make contact and hit for average, use all fields, and offer doubles power. There are 26 shortstop-eligible players ahead of him on the Player Rater -- and for good reason -- but I still see a path to mixed-league relevance in future seasons.
The much-awaited debut for Chicago White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech was cut short by rain, but what we saw in two innings was impressive. Kopech throws hard. We knew that, but what I saw was a Twins offense prepared for 100-mph fastballs and able to make contact. Kopech allowed three singles while getting his six outs, four by strikeout, but needed 52 pitches to do so. There were more than a few foul balls. One never knows about a pitcher once he becomes comfortable, and most are probably nervous as they debut. At least Kopech kept his control. We should learn more this weekend when he faces the Tigers on the road, but he sure seems every bit like a mixed-league addition to me. Do not wait.
It's hard to believe just how good Oakland pitching has been this season, as veterans like Mike Fiers, Brett Anderson, Edwin Jackson and Trevor Cahill all produce value. Ignore them if you prefer, based on statistics from the past, but something magical is happening and it is not just Khris Davis going deep on a regular basis. Anderson lowered his ERA to 3.47 with seven shutout innings on Tuesday, although it's worth pointing out he's not missing many bats. Utilizing him in fantasy comes at a cost. However, with Fiers and Cahill, I see no reason to avoid.
The Nationals traded infielders Daniel Murphy and Matt Adams to contending teams but held onto Bryce Harper, for whatever reason. Murphy went to the Cubs, where I would caution fantasy managers that he remains unlikely to play every game. Murphy has hit .340 with power since the All-Star break, so his knee is likely feeling much better, but he could be platooned -- and defense is not his strong suit. The Cubs are looking at the playoffs and figure to be judicious in deploying hampered players like Murphy and Kris Bryant. Frankly, I think Murphy is no more valuable for fantasy today. Adams is reunited with the Cardinals, but loses value because at-bats will be even tougher to find. The Nationals turn to Wilmer Difo for the second base at-bats, but he is not helping fantasy managers in any category. That is not going to change.

Health report:

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu hit the disabled list on Wednesday because he underwent surgery for "lower abdomen/groin pain." Perhaps the team will share the exact reason at some point. Regardless, the absence is not expected to be major. Abreu might miss only three of the remaining six weeks, so keep him rostered. The annual 30-HR, 100-RBI option will likely fall short of those marks this season, but not by much. Nothing has changed, and he should retain value for 2019.
The Los Angeles Angels went with Kaleb Cowart and Eric Young Jr. in their outfield on Tuesday. They lost. We think Mike Trout could return this weekend from a wrist injury, but only the Angels know for sure. Justin Upton hit the DL on Tuesday with a finger laceration that does not seem especially serious. He could return before the month ends. No, do not add Cowart or Young.

Closing time:

<strike></strike>

Astros manager A.J. Hinch seemed perturbed when telling reporters who keep asking about whether or not Roberto Osuna would assume closing duties right away and push Hector Rondon to setup duty that he was indeed going to turn to Osuna. That was Tuesday morning. On Tuesday night, however, Osuna handled the eighth inning (again) and allowed three hits and a run, while Rondon closed. What happens Wednesday? Perhaps Joe Sambito gets the call? Hinch obviously wants to go with Osuna and at some point should make that call. For fantasy managers that need saves, it seems like time is running out to go get him.
As a Kirby Yates investor, it was nice to see the San Diego Padres right-hander convert a save and do so with nary a home run permitted. Yates had allowed home runs in his previous two outings, losing each. After having allowed just one home run over the first four months of the season, he had been touched for three total blasts in August. Yates permitted 12 HR in 2018. Hopefully he's back on track after Tuesday's solid outing.

W2W4:

Boston turns to left-hander Brian Johnson to try and break a three-game losing streak. It seems unlikely there will be major run support for him facing Cleveland right-hander Carlos Carrasco. Still, Johnson has a 3.68 ERA since the All-Star break and a 3.40 ERA overall as a starting pitcher, and he misses bats. It's not a bad contrarian play for the day.
The Giants are planning to sit outfielder Andrew McCutchen on Wednesday because a trade could be finalized. McCutchen is rostered in most leagues anyway, but keep an eye out because his arrival in a new location could cost another player playing time. For those in deeper formats, the Giants will likely give regular duty to Austin Slater -- and he can hit. Steven Duggar could also move up to the leadoff role.

HacheMan · Aug 30, 2018

Karablog: Is Christian Yelich a top-25 option for 2019?

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

The big question I had about Christian Yelich entering the season was whether he could turn his reasonable five-category production into being a no-doubt top-10 fantasy outfielder. Yelich was generally a solid statistical option for the Miami Marlins but not spectacular. There is nothing wrong with that, especially since he had not hit his prime. Through four months of this season, I was thinking Yelich was a nice player, but again, when does the special stuff happen?

Well, <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">after Wednesday's outburst, when Yelich became the fourth player ever to combine a six-hit game with a cycle, people will probably look at Yelich a bit differently. After all, the Milwaukee Brewers outfielder entered August hitting for average but with only 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases. Perhaps the word "only" is not fair. It is very good. Only nine players have more than 15 blasts and 13 steals today. Yelich has 11 home runs in August and now leads the National League in batting. I had not heard his name mentioned as a viable MVP candidate until Wednesday night, which is patent overreacting but also reasonable in this case.

</offer>Fantasy managers spend a great deal of time trying to figure out the next superstars from the lot of undesirable options, but really what they should do is look at those from the top 50 or top 100 with the potential to blossom into top-20 options. I pegged Boston Red Sox outfielder Andrew Benintendi for such stardom, and that is working out nicely. Yelich slipped past Benintendi on the full-season Player Rater with Wednesday's outburst, and he is No. 4 among outfielders behind Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez and Mike Trout. Now that is rarefied air indeed. A few weeks ago, Yelich was outside the top 10 outfielders, but things change quickly.

As for what happens next season, the fact that Yelich's power took a jump this month and he is going to surpass 30 blasts is a great sign that he does belong among the top 25 players in 2019 drafts, and it ups his status in dynasty formats. Again, there was nothing wrong with Yelich before August, and we love players who hit for batting average and score runs while contributing meaningful power and speed, but things changed this month, and on Wednesday. Now Yelich looks like a superstar and MVP threat, should he continue to hit and the Brewers claw their way into the playoffs.

As for other hitters I thought could make the jump from valuable to truly valuable, I hit on a few (Benintendi, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Haniger, Jose Martinez) and missed on a few others (Tommy Pham, Byron Buxton), and deeper down there are a few who bother me (Manuel Margot, Domingo Santana). Santana, I believe, can be more valuable to the Brewers and fantasy managers than Ryan Braun, but good luck getting the chance to prove it. Yelich and Lorenzo Cain were always safe and smart additions to the Brewers, and they have made fantasy managers happy. Perhaps one of them gets legit MVP support as well.

[h=2]Wednesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 6-for-6, HR, 3 RBI

• Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox: 3-for-4, HR, 3 R

• Adalberto Mondesi, 2B, Kansas City Royals: 2-for-3, HR, 3 RBI

• Alex Wood, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

• Trevor Williams, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Lowlights:

• Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: 1-for-5, 4 K

• Kyle Schwarber, OF, Chicago Cubs: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals: 5 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

• Sean Newcomb, SP, Atlanta Braves: 4 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

• Michael Fulmer, SP, Detroit Tigers: 3 2/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

Wednesday takeaways:

With his 16th home run, Juan Soto has tied Ken Griffey Jr. for the fourth-most by a teenager in a season in MLB history. Up next is Mel Ott at 18. pic.twitter.com/ZkBbcrUDly
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 30, 2018

• Because of how great Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. has played, I do think people are overlooking the teenage Soto, who through 375 plate appearances -- and he is not yet 20! -- has 62 walks and 77 strikeouts. OK, so he's no longer one of the rare players with more walks than strikeouts (Trout, Carlos Santana, Joey Votto, Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Jesse Winker), but his plate discipline is tremendous, and I love the opposite-field home runs. Soto hits baseballs hard and to all fields. Acuna, who is only 20, by the way, is different. His power is raw, and while his 25 percent K rate is hardly gaudy, he is far more aggressive at the plate, and he adds the stolen-base upside. Acuna goes ahead of Soto in a fantasy draft in 2019. He probably wins top rookie honors this season. I want to find a way to get Soto into my top 10 outfielders as well, though.

• The big league leader in stolen bases since the All-Star break is Royals middle infielder Adalberto Mondesi, and he has also homered in consecutive games. Through 48 games and 168 PA, he has six home runs and 17 steals, albeit with five walks versus 44 strikeouts. OK, so there is a decent possibility Mondesi hits .220 in a future season, and he might never reach a .300 OBP, but the Royals might never notice. Fantasy managers cannot ignore a fellow with the potential for 15 homers easy and more than 30 steals. Is this Trea Turner with no plate discipline and a lower batting average? It really could be.

• Minnesota Twins catcher/utility Willians Astudillo (yes, it's spelled correctly) hit his first big league homer on Wednesday and through 27 PA is hitting .269 and putting nearly every ball in play. No walks and two strikeouts is a very small sample size, but in the minors, the contact rates were astronomical and quite historic. Nobody does this. Astudillo has played the corner infield spots, corner outfield and, of course, he is a catcher. I think he carves out a big league career but perhaps never as a starter. Yet, if I thought he could get 300 PA next season, with his catcher eligibility, I would rank him top 20 at the spot and a good option for two-catcher formats. He could hit double-digit homers and .270 for sure.

• Much like the Philadelphia Phillies did with Miami's Justin Bour a few weeks ago, the Braves picked up first baseman Lucas Duda from the Royals for nothing. Duda is not going to start games, not with Freddie Freeman in his way, but in an NL-only format, he could hit a few home runs as a pinch-hitter. The Braves are done with road interleague series. The reason this matters is that Duda can no longer take at-bats from young Royals. He is rostered in a mere 2.7 percent of ESPN mixed leagues anyway. I think Ryan O'Hearn has legit power as the KC first baseman, so take a look at him in deeper mixed formats, and perhaps Rosell Herrera and Jorge Bonifacio get every chance to play regularly. Herrera, somehow, is 1-for-6 on stolen bases in the majors this season, but he can run.

Health report:

• Los Angeles Angels first baseman Albert Pujols, rostered in 40 percent of ESPN standard leagues, is done for the season after knee surgery. Pujols was hitting .245, albeit with power, and that was good enough for the No. 28 spot at his position on the Player Rater, ahead of, among others, Mitch Moreland, Marwin Gonzalez, Brandon Belt, Josh Bell, Eric Thames and Wil Myers. Pujols was bad but still had value. Look, the Hall of Fame will be calling five years after he retires, but fantasy managers should ignore him in 2019 drafts, even if everyone and their mother tells you his knee issues are a thing of the past.

• Cincinnati Reds outfielder Billy Hamilton led off Wednesday's ridiculous slugfest with a home run but left before it ended after being spiked on a play at home plate. Hamilton could miss Thursday's game, but if you have been relying on him for stolen bases, nothing changes. He should be fine.

• Red Sox lefty David Price left his dream matchup with the Marlins when a line drive struck his left wrist in the third inning, and he was not pitching well at all, for those who presumed seven shutout innings and a win were guaranteed. With Price, one never knows if he will make his next start, but it is his pitching wrist, and the Red Sox have a big division lead. Prepare accordingly.

• Cleveland Indians lefty Andrew Miller is back on the DL yet again with shoulder woes. Move on in all formats. At this point, the team should simply get him ready for October, and if he does return sooner, there will be no saves for him. Brad Hand is probably getting them after yet another Cody Allen implosion.

Closing time:

• Twins right-hander Trevor Hildenberger is a top-15 relief pitcher over the past 15 days on the Rater, with four saves in that span. His strikeout rate is a bit ordinary for a closer, but he is getting saves.

• Baltimore Orioles closer Mychal Givens faced one Blue Jay to earn his fifth save. His last one came on Aug. 14. Givens does not get many chances but seems safe in the role.

W2W4:

• Several top-20 hitters return from injuries on Thursday, including Angels outfielder Justin Upton and Reds first baseman Joey Votto. Sure would have been nice to have Votto in the lineup as the Brewers and Reds were scoring touchdowns on Wednesday, but whatevs. He plays Thursday.

• Oakland turns to right-hander Frankie Montas against the Mariners now that Brett Anderson and Sean Manaea are likely out for the season. Mustachioed Daniel Mengden starts Friday. Montas, now 25, used to be a strikeout pitcher, but as a starting pitcher, it has not translated, so unless you believe in Oakland magic -- Edwin Jackson, Anderson, etc. -- he is not worth it in fantasy.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Sep 4, 2018

Karablog: Victor Robles' potential for Sept. and 2019

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

Way back in March, if you can remember that far, the

Washington Nationals

boasted an intriguing outfield prospect who was supposed to make a mark in fantasy baseball this season. The prospect analysts loved him. The organization decided it did not want this youngster sitting on the bench, so back to Triple-A Syracuse he went while

Adam Eaton

,

Michael Taylor

and

Bryce Harper

handled starting duties. Then, in early April, the player injured his left elbow diving in the outfield and we wondered if we would see him at all in 2018. Meanwhile,

Juan Soto

burst onto the scene, forced his way to the majors and might just win top NL rookie honors.

So whatever happened to Victor Robles? Glad you asked! <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">His re-promotion from Syracuse is likely to occur Tuesday, and while some in fantasy might have forgotten about him, the 21-year-old, right-handed speedster remains intriguing. What Soto has achieved tells us nothing about Robles, but there was a reason why so many regarded Robles and Ronald Acuna Jr. similarly for immediate statistical impact this season. Now it is time for Robles to shine. Remember, he saw 27 big league plate appearances last September, so this is not his debut. He hit .278 with 14 stolen bases and strong plate discipline for Syracuse.

</offer>A few questions jump immediately to mind on this one. First, will Robles play? The Nationals finally figured out they were not playoff bound and sold off their veterans. It is too late to keep doing so, but Harper might be playing his final month for the club and Eaton is no longer a building block. Soto and Robles are. I think Robles will play quite a bit. The other question is about statistical relevance. We know he can run, but Robles hit a mere two home runs in 40 games for the Chiefs, slugging .386. He was the leadoff hitter. The Nationals have Eaton and Trea Turner to do that but should give him a look in that role, and even if he cannot provide power, the speed and potential for runs should be worth it in fantasy.

Then there are the dynasty formats. Most fantasy managers have a good idea by the first week of September if they are contending or merely looking to 2019 and beyond. Perhaps Robles is available in your league. I think he should provide double-digit home runs, possibly as soon as 2019, but we need to see extending playing time. I think the Nationals realize Robles should not simply sit in the dugout and watch the big leaguers play this month. He should be out there. With fantasy managers desperate for stolen bases adding the likes of Jonathan Villar, Roman Quinn and Adalberto Mondesi, do not forget about Robles and keep expectations in check for Harper and Eaton playing time.

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI, SB

• Ryan O'Hearn, 1B, Kansas City Royals: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

• Franmil Reyes, OF, San Diego Padres: 2-for-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Jakob Junis, SP, Kansas City Royals: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K

• Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Lowlights:

• Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves: 0-for-5, 3 K

• Alex Gordon, OF, Kansas City Royals: 0-for-5, 3 K

• Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

• Zack Godley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 5 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

• Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: 1 2/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Monday takeaways:

Trevor Williams has wrapped up his 9th straight start allowing 2 ER or fewer.
His 0.72 ERA is the lowest in baseball since the All-Star break. pic.twitter.com/CpCj87SN6O
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 3, 2018

• Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Trevor Williams beat the Reds on Monday and continued his excellent pitching. No, he is not deGrom, but still, Williams just crossed the 50 percent rostered threshold over the weekend. He is out there in many leagues and the schedule claims he will face the Marlins this coming weekend. After that, a pair of matchups with the Brewers lurk, but still, add a pitcher when he is thriving. Other pitchers in the top 20 for ERA since the All-Star break (40 innings minimum) that could be available in your league include Zack Wheeler, Clay Buchholz, Dereck Rodriguez, Tanner Roark, Wade Miley, Derek Holland and Austin Gomber.

• Angels right-hander Shohei Ohtani took the mound on Sunday Night Baseball but struggled in the third inning at Houston, allowing a George Springer home run and getting pulled at 49 pitches. Afterward, the team announced he had back stiffness and a sore finger. Some on Twitter could not understand my reaction to Ohtani pitching in September. I do not see the point. He does not need to prove himself and does not need the confidence heading into 2019. Injury is a concern, a long-term one. Ohtani remains in line to start this Sunday and all the others in September, but I remain skeptical it occurs.

• It seems a big month for starting pitchers being brought back, even on non-playoff teams. Matt Shoemaker returned for the Angels. Ian Kennedy is on the mend for the Royals. The Phillies have Jerad Eickhoff in their bullpen. Zach Davies fanned seven Cubs over five innings Monday. The Cardinals are bringing back Adam Wainwright next Monday, while several young right-handers loom in the bullpen. In general, I aim to avoid these pitchers for fantasy. Perhaps they have something left, perhaps their teams are simply desperate. And perhaps one twinge of a shoulder and they get shut down again.

• Myriad young hitters are showing off their power, and fantasy managers should be watching closely. Padres outfielder Franmil Reyes homered twice against the Diamondbacks on Monday and boasts six blasts in 10 games. One would presume he will keep playing while Travis Jankowski and Manuel Margot platoon. Royals first baseman Ryan O'Hearn has nine homers in 24 games and 91 PA and will continue to play regularly as well. The Giants called up Chris Shaw after the Andrew McCutchen trade, and his first homer came on Monday. These players offer upside and batting average downside, but if you guess right, it could be the difference in winning and losing.

Health report:

• Houston Astros utility option Marwin Gonzalez hit .303 in August with eight home runs. On Monday, he hurt his oblique in the first inning and now he might be done for a while. The Astros claim Gonzalez is out until the weekend, but it figures to be longer. Those in weekly leagues will get nothing this week.

• Those who believed new Cleveland third baseman Josh Donaldson would make an immediate impact got a dose of reality when he went back on the DL Monday. Donaldson's acquisition from the eager Blue Jays occurred on Friday night. Perhaps Donaldson plays in two weeks, but I am skeptical. I would prefer the roster spot for four weeks of fun with fellows like O'Hearn, Robles and Shaw.

Closing time:

• Roberto Osuna remains the Astros closer, but he was unavailable Monday after pitching in four of five games. Hector Rondon got the save chance, but after being hit by a comebacker, he was out. Brad Peacock closed. Osuna remains the closer and perhaps Rondon does not miss much time.

• The Dodgers announced Kenley Jansen might not make the trip to Denver for a big series with the Rockies, due to the thin air affecting his health. Makes sense. Kenta Maeda and Ryan Madson would handle the saves this week and beyond when Jansen is not available. I think Madson might get first shot.

W2W4:

• Chicago White Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito faces the Tigers at home, and since his overall ERA is 5.66, you might not care. His ERA in August was 3.86, with a 1.01 WHIP and 40 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings. Do you care now?

• Arizona lefty Robbie Ray last reached six full innings in an outing in July and only once in his past 11 starts. The whiffs are still there, and he has permitted one run in each of his past two outings, but he has one win since June and the Padres offer significant right-handed power in Reyes and Hunter Renfroe. Tough call here.

• Perhaps Minnesota right-hander Trevor May will not matter in fantasy anytime soon, but I am interested in how he looks starting Tuesday at Houston. May's days of being a real starter -- getting a chance to throw 100 pitches -- are probably over. His relief numbers this year are stellar. This could be the 2019 closer for the Twins.[SUB][SUP]<strike>
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HacheMan · Sep 5, 2018

Karablog: Does Trevor Story's rise make him a top-20 pick in 2019?

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

No major league player reached 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases in any of the past five seasons, but it sure would be nice if a player or three got there in 2018. For months, we have watched AL MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez grind their way to exceptional five-category fantasy goodness, and now we have a surprise NL contender for the 30/30 run as well.

Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, the No. 2 fantasy option on the 30-day Player Rater, stole two more bases on Tuesday, giving him six in eight games. He boasts 25 steals, 28 home runs and a legit, if overlooked, NL MVP case as well.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Despite his home ballpark, Story was barely a top-10 shortstop on draft day, barely a top-100 overall selection, so if you had told me he would rise all the way to top-10 overall status in September, it would have surprised me. I would have wondered mostly about the batting average and strikeouts, to be honest.

Story smashed 27 home runs in 97 games as a rookie in 2016, but his .272 batting average seemed aberrant thanks to his many strikeouts (31 percent) and a bloated BABIP (.343). Story hit .239 as a sophomore, with only 24 home runs over 145 games, and led the NL in whiffs. Nobody seemed too surprised then.

The updated Story features a strikeout rate in the 25 percent range, which is quite normal for this era, and he credits a simpler swing and more aggressive approach. In this case, we are cool with fewer walks because Story is swinging at the right pitches early in the count and hitting them hard as he did his rookie season, but with fewer swings and misses.

The home runs are not a big surprise. Story showed that when he first came up. The contact percentage is considerably improved, and it is not all Coors Field; Story is hitting .283 with 10 home runs on the road, and a .373 BABIP. At home, his BABIP is .341.

The first thing I noticed about Story's stolen base output was how he seemed far more likely to run in road games, and the numbers bear it out. In fact, entering this week, Story had stolen only seven of 22 bases in 64 home games, and 15 on the road. This week he is running at home as well.

For a player who stole 15 bases his first two seasons combined, more than 22 attempts, this is a reminder that not all base stealers need to boast Billy Hamilton-type wheels. Story has become a smart, opportunistic runner. He is not Maikel Franco, but still, nobody saw a run at 30 steals.

Add it up, and with three-plus weeks to go, Betts, Ramirez and now Story each seem well on their way to 30/30 campaigns, which is awesome since the achievement has become so rare. In addition, while those fellows have become obvious top overall draft picks for 2019, it's time we view Story as a realistic second-round choice, though I might stop short at third round for now, depending on how I view some starting pitchers and disappointing first basemen next spring.

We have no idea if Story will choose to run this much in 2019, or ever again. Still, everyone hits for power, it seems. Few do so in concert with base-stealing prowess. This might even become an MVP story.

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• J.T. Realmuto, C/1B, Miami Marlins: 2-for-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Scooter Gennett, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Mikie Mahtook, OF, Detroit Tigers: 2-for-3, HR, 2 R, SB

• Robbie Ray, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

• Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 8 K

Lowlights:

• Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals: 0-for-3, RBI, 3 K

• Lucas Giolito, SP, Chicago White Sox: 1 1/3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

• Sean Newcomb, SP, Atlanta Braves: 4 1/3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 2 K

• Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals: 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Tuesday takeaways:

.@Padres recall catcher Francisco Mejia from Triple-A El Paso.
- MLBRosterMoves (@MLBRosterMoves) September 4, 2018

• Hmm, that is mighty interesting! Mejia came over from the Cleveland Indians in the Brad Hand trade, and while few question his potential relevance at the plate to hit for average and modest pop, others wonder if he ends up behind it defensively. See, Mejia remains a bit rough as a catcher, but the Padres seem committed to playing him there, at least for now. The outfield, after all, is a jumble of right-handed power now that Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe have emerged. The corner infield spots are set if Wil Myers sticks at third base. Fantasy managers will enjoy Mejia's hitting, but there is one important issue: He is not a catcher today in fantasy. He is DH-only for now. If Mejia plays his 10th game at catcher, he will become eligible in-season, but you might be waiting a few weeks, and there are a mere few weeks left. Mejia should be catcher-eligible in 2019. It depends on what the Padres do with him. Last season with Cleveland, Mejia played five games at DH, three at catcher. That is why he is not catcher-eligible. Sorry. He is hitter-eligible!

• Los Angeles Angels slugger/thrower Shohei Ohtani clubbed home run No. 16 on Tuesday, his first off a left-hander. Ohtani did this to Texas lefty Mike Minor. It is such a pretty swing, I reiterate my stance for the past month: Let him bat 500 times, and this might be Christian Yelich with the power, the speed, everything. It does not appear likely, though. For now, the Angels have not even committed to Ohtani starting Sunday's game on the mound.

• New York Mets outfielder Michael Conforto hit his 21st home run, though it comes with a .229 batting average. I watch him hit and still believe the shoulder injury is a factor. Perhaps it will not be in 2019. I feel pretty sure I will be recommending Conforto next spring as a potential .280-35-90 option.

• Nobody wants to talk about Baltimore Orioles right-hander Alex Cobb because he is 5-15 with a 4.97 ERA. You know what? He was 2-14 with a 6.08 ERA when August began. In nine starts since the All-Star break, including his six-inning flummoxing of the Mariners in their home in a critical game Tuesday, he is 3-3 (he is still an Oriole!) with a 2.65 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, albeit with a low K rate. Still, that's not bad work. Look at recent splits, not those for five-plus months. Cobb is a better choice next week than plenty of hurlers with better full-season stats.

Health report:

• We say goodbye to Kansas City Royals lefty Danny Duffy to 2018, though we do not shed a tear. Duffy and his sore shoulder could not last the first inning on Tuesday, and he leaves us with a 4.88 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. You might be thinking that nobody cares, but Duffy was the No. 44 starting pitcher in ESPN ADP, a 17th-rounder. He did damage. I will not claim Duffy can never replicate his excellent 2016. Perhaps he simply needs health. He is a strikeout option.

• Minnesota Twins infielder Miguel Sano was carted off the Houston infield with a leg injury, and the organization calls it a bruise. Perhaps that is all it is, but Sano injured the same lower leg last season and missed most of the final two months. Perhaps he plays this weekend, or maybe not until 2019. What a disappointing career path for a fellow who hammered 18 home runs in half a rookie season. Sano should be hitting 40 blasts a year. Next year will be critical for him.

Closing time:

• Rookie Jordan Hicks retired the final Nationals hitter to earn his sixth save, and with closer Bud Norris out a few more days thanks to a few rough outings, Hicks could get another opportunity or two. Perhaps Hicks should just take the job, as has been speculated for months! Oh no, Norris has that critical experience, so we know he can handle the ninth inning, the outdated, old guard says. A rookie cannot possibly handle this in a pennant race! Goodbye, old guard. Look around. Hicks is taking this job. Add him in fantasy.

W2W4:

• Rain should not be a factor as Chicago White Sox rookie Michael Kopech makes his fourth start. Two of the first three were shortened due to rain. Kopech handled the Tigers for 6 innings of one-run ball in his lone clear-sky outing, and with his impeccable control, he should thrive again. It is quite amazing how Kopech went from a big walker to this, without losing the strikeouts.

• A mere five hurlers have permitted more earned runs since the All-Star break than New York Yankees right-hander Luis Severino. His most recent outings have been better, albeit against also-rans Detroit, Baltimore and Toronto, but he has won three of four. Perhaps you would never sit him anyway, even though the Athletics are the foe. Still, it seems odd to me that everyone will start Severino, but few will go with Oakland right-hander Mike Fiers, who has the same ERA and WHIP for the season, but has been much better since the break.

HacheMan · Sep 5, 2018

These toolsy prospects can make a big league impact in 2019

Tommy Rancel
ESPN PLUS

As the season winds down and the major and minor league rosters become intertwined, we are at the point where pure numbers do not matter much. Instead, what I want to do here is look at individual skills.

The parameters are as followed: these players are still on a minor league roster, but close enough that you should know them. There may be a dynamite A-baller who has all the tools, but in redraft leagues he is irrelevant for 2019. Also, this is not a 20-80 scale ranking, although a few of those numbers will be tossed around.

Today, the focus will be on hitters who are among the best with hit tool, power and speed. You can translate those to mean average, home runs, stolen bases with runs and RBI byproducts of those core skills.

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[h=3]Hit Tool/Average[/h]

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B Toronto Blue Jays - The younger Guerrero was even better than advertised in 2018. In his last season as a teenager, he hit .381 across several levels in 95 games. It is an 80-hit tool that comes with great pitch recognition. Double-A is my litmus test for most prospects. Guerrero hit .402 in over 260 plate appearances there. He's going to win at least one batting title if not multiple.

Nick Senzel, 2B/3B/SS Cincinnati Reds - Senzel does not have the 80 grade, but I do not think there was a hitter more prepared to face big league pitching prior to his season-ending injury. There is a consistently and fluidity to his at-bats that almost seems immune to slumps because the stroke is so compact with easy motion. I think he will challenge .300 as a regular middle infielder.

Keston Hiura, 2B Milwaukee Brewers - Coming out of the University of California at Irvine, Hiura was one of the top pure bats in the 2017 draft class. Without a true defensive home, hitting remains his one stand out skill and what will ultimately carry him to the majors. He is a .313 hitter in over 700 career plate appearances. He reached Double-A this season and should make his debut in 2019. I do question if Milwaukee is the right spot. A team with a designated hitter would probably be better.

[h=3]Power/Home Runs[/h]

Eloy Jimenez, OF Chicago White Sox - Whether you agree if it is right or wrong, Jimenez is not in a major league roster for reasons other than baseball. His power is the prodigious kind that was talked about with Joey Gallo and Aaron Judge in recent seasons. He is much more Judge than Gallo as he is a pretty good hitter otherwise and unlike Judge probably won't strikeout 200 times. It is 40 home run potential that will be in the majors next season; probably sometime after April 15 because of baserunning or something else ridiculous.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B Toronto Blue Jays - Here is that soon-to-be-man again. Not only does Guerrero Jr. have a 80 hit tool, but the power potential is right there as well. He topped 20 home runs for the first time in a season despite missing about six weeks to injury. Along with an average above .300, he should top 60 or even 70 extra-base hits in a season with at least half of those clearing the wall.

Peter Alonso, 1B New York Mets - Another slugger that should be in the majors; however, "reasons." Alonso is more of the typical power hitting prospect that comes with a lot of boom and a considerable amount of bust. He smashed 36 long balls this season including 21 in Triple-A. He also struck out 78 times in 67 games for Las Vegas. There are better hitters with perhaps more raw power, but he has big time in-game power and is close to showing that at the highest level.

[h=3]Speed/Steals[/h]

Jorge Mateo, SS/2B Oakland Athletics - Mateo makes this list for a second straight season which is a gift and a curse. It means he is still among the fastest runners in the minors. At the same time, it means he is still in the minors. I ended his portion last season by saying "he is a legit 50-steal threat in the majors, provided he can get on base enough to commit such grand theft." That is still the case. He reached based only 28 percent of the time in 2018. He was still able to steal 25 bases and collect 16 triples. Speed is only a useful tool if you have opportunities to actually use it.

Corey Ray, OF Milwaukee Brewers - The fifth overall pick in 2016, Ray has a combination of speed and power that could make him a superstar if he could hit the ball consistently. Look at these numbers for example. Playing for Double-A Biloxi, Ray collected 66 extra-base hits including 27 home runs while stealing 37 bases in 44 chances. He also hit .241 and struck out 176 times. He's an easy 70 runner that can be a dynamic offensive weapon and defender. Hitting will determine if he is a star or a reserve.

Bo Bichette, SS/2B Toronto Blue Jays - Vlad Jr.'s "running" partner for most of the past two seasons, Bichette does not have a tremendous speed grade, but moves well enough along the bases to impact the game with his legs. He stole 32 bases this season -- although his efficiency can improve -- while tallying 43 doubles and seven triples. Not only could he steal 20 or more bags as a major leaguer, but the constant threat of being in scoring position means a ton of runs scored hitting in front of Guerrero Jr. and others.<strike></strike>

HacheMan · Sep 10, 2018

Finding the best fantasy options on the surprisingly good A's

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

Those millions of people who read my colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft's weekly Fantasy Forecaster know full well that the Oakland Athletics boast a sweet road schedule this week at Baltimore -- rain permitting -- and Tampa Bay. The Athletics lead baseball in road OPS and home runs, but it is hardly just outfielder Khris Davis and his 41 home runs doing the damage. Outfielder Stephen Piscotty and third baseman Matt Chapman are each among the 30 most valuable options on the 30-day Player Rater, while middle infielders Marcus Semien and Jed Lowrie and surprise rookie outfielder Ramon Laureano are not far behind.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Piscotty is the noticeable one of late for his 11-game hitting streak, which includes five home runs and 16 runs batted in for that stretch. The former St. Louis Cardinal slumped last season to a .235 batting average and single-digit home runs despite gains in plate discipline, and spent time at Triple-A Memphis. What most did not know is that Piscotty's mother was dying of ALS, and the Cardinals and Athletics worked out the winter trade to return Piscotty to the Bay Area for her final days. She passed in May. These are human beings first, baseball players second.

From a fantasy standpoint, seeing Piscotty struggle in 2017 to stay healthy and productive, and moving to a pitchers' ballpark in another league, it was a bit tough to make the case for a return to top-30 outfielder relevance, as Piscotty had achieved in 2016. Well, he is closing in on that mark. Piscotty has 15 of his 23 home runs in road games, with an OPS nearly 100 points greater, and he is hitting .357 this month with four blasts. His hard-hit percentage has risen from 32.7 percent to 41.7 percent, and he has been smarter with the pitches he attacks in the strike zone. Add it up and we have the No. 37 outfielder for the season, and rising.

Chapman is a potential 35-homer option in the future, Semien one of the few middle infielders on a path to 15 or more home runs and stolen bases and Lowrie, despite years of injuries and inconsistent performance, has managed to produce all season long and might knock in 100 runs. My favorite Oakland player to watch of late has been Laureano, he of the rifle outfield arm that has embarrassed several baserunners.

He also can hit! Laureano has achieved 1.5 WAR in his 102 plate appearances with excellent defense but also a .912 OPS, featuring 5 home runs and 4 steals. There is ample swing-and-miss in his approach, but the right-handed batter is doing this against right-handed pitching as well. Laureano homered twice on Friday versus Texas. He is an excellent addition for this week's attractive road slate.

As for the starting pitchers, only right-hander Mike Fiers inspires confidence at this point. Right-hander Trevor Cahill was thriving in home games but lost all control Sunday against the Rangers, issuing six walks while retiring eight hitters. Cahill beat the Yankees earlier in the week but went only five innings. With a mere eight strikeouts in his past four outings, move on. Edwin Jackson has not eclipsed five innings in four of five chances. Daniel Mengden boasts an awesome mustache, but it does not help him miss bats. Sean Manaea looks done. The Athletics are playoff-bound and could do damage thanks to the offense, defense and bullpen.

[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Charlie Blackmon, OF, Colorado Rockies: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 R• Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4-for-5, HR, 2 RBI• Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves: 2-for-3, HR, SB, 3 R• Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 12 K• Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Chicago White Sox: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

• Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres: 0-for-4, 3 K• Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: 0-for-4, 4 K• Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros: 6 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K• Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland Athletics: 2 2/3 IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, 1 K• Brad Boxberger, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 1/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K

Weekend takeaways:

Jorge López is the fifth pitcher to lose a perfect game in the 9th inning since the last perfect game by Félix Hernández in 2012. pic.twitter.com/E2RuoDx9U3
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 9, 2018

• Wait, who? That is Jorge Lopez, a right-hander for the Kansas City Royals acquired from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Mike Moustakas trade back in July, and he nearly made history on Saturday night until Max Kepler walked and Robbie Grossman singled in the ninth inning. Lopez used to be an intriguing prospect until he ran into the thin air of Triple-A Colorado Springs, but walks and inconsistency plagued him. The Royals might have something here, though fantasy managers should still stay away. Lopez allowed two earned runs in 15 innings over his past two outings, and walked only one, but there is little evidence he can control the walks moving forward. Keep an eye on Lopez. He is 25 and he should get a rotation spot in 2019.

• Shohei Ohtani was fantasy's top player over the past seven days on the Player Rater, and that was all hitting. Pretty impressive. One can easily make the case to utilize Ohtani in your DH slot the final weeks of the season. Others in the top 20 for the past week who are more readily available include Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Villar, who just keeps on hitting and running without anyone noticing, plus Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier and, as predicted Friday, Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre, who smacked two home runs in Saturday's game at Oakland.

• Quite a few fantasy managers were ready to part with Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto when he hit the DL last month but they were not complaining this past weekend when he homered twice and knocked in seven runs. Votto has a mere 11 home runs in 129 games, which is obviously substandard for him. He smacked 36 blasts last season and hit .320. Do not underestimate him in 2019 drafts. He could easily return to those numbers.

• Those needing stolen bases should again look at Rangers outfielder Delino DeShields, as he hit leadoff Sunday for the second time since the All-Star break and stole two bases and scored twice. DeShields was supposed to steal 30 bases this season, but injuries and performance have hampered him and he is at 20. Still, it would not be stunning if he stole 30 in 2019. He is 25. And by the way, seven players have 30 stolen bases. It is hardly common. Cleveland's Jose Ramirez became the first player to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases since Mike Trout and Ryan Braun did so in 2012.

Health report:

• Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu said he would return from abdominal surgery before the end of the season, and he was right. He could play Monday. Abreu will likely fall short of his fourth 30-homer, 100-RBI campaign, but not by much. Activate him this week and make him a top-50 option in 2019.

• Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk ran into a stool while trying to catch a fly ball Sunday, and could miss time. Yep, it happened. I saw it. Those pesky stools! Grichuk is hitting .294 with 10 home runs since the All-Star break, so as with Piscotty, leaving St. Louis did not ruin his career. There is top-30 outfield potential here as well so let us hope he plays again soon.

Closing time:

• St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez saved Sunday's win and was named closer, so we can all part with Bud Norris and Jordan Hicks. Martinez was a top-20 starter in March but now, well, things change. If Martinez is closing next season he could absolutely be a top-10 relief option, though I think we would all prefer the 200 innings.

• It is hard to believe Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brad Boxberger still has the closer role after a brutal weekend against Atlanta. Boxberger has 32 saves but only one, along with three losses, in his past four appearances. Ender Inciarte hit one to the moon off him Sunday. Archie Bradley has not been performing any better so perhaps Jake Diekman or Brad Ziegler gets a shot. No, really.

W2W4:

• Milwaukee Brewers lefty Wade Miley faces Chicago Cubs lefty Jon Lester on ESPN+ and while I never would have imagined recommending the former, the fact is he has a 2.12 ERA in 12 starts this season, and a 1.17 WHIP. You do not get wins or whiffs but decent innings, yes. Miley had a 5.61 ERA with Baltimore last season, and it cannot be all about Baltimore.

• Adam Wainwright returns after missing months for the Cardinals but does not come recommended for fantasy. For one, he is likely on a pitch count. For two, his ERA since the start of 2016 is 4.76, with a 1.46 WHIP. The good times are in the past. This team might make the playoffs with Wainwright starting and Martinez closing. Unbelievable.

• Do not ignore Colorado Rockies right-hander German Marquez, for he is facing a scuffling Arizona lineup and has struck out 24 hitters in his past two starts. Marquez does have a 5.50 home ERA this season, as opposed to 2.83 on the road, but each of his past five home starts have been six or more innings with three or fewer runs, and many whiffs. Do not look at season numbers; look at recent trends. This fellow is good.

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HacheMan · Sep 12, 2018

Jonathan Villar, Amed Rosario among top players to pick up

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Villar homered on Tuesday, and he stole two bases in a game a few days before that. He has hit .291 with 7 home runs and 12 steals since the All-Star break.

He is not producing quite as he did in his amazing 2016, when he was arguably the fantasy MVP and definitely a top-10 player, but Villar has resurrected his current season far from the spotlight and a pennant race in Maryland. He stands as the No. 3 option on the 30-day Player Rater and yet ... he remains available in roughly 56 percent of ESPN standard leagues.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>OK, I get it. Fantasy football is underway, hoops and hockey are close, and for many fantasy baseball leagues, half the managers might have checked out. Well, I have not checked out! These are the critical final weeks of the season, and Villar illustrates the fact that there are useful statistical assets sitting there lonely on free agency, simply waiting for an eager, desperate fantasy baseball manager to love them.

Inspired by a longtime fantasy-playing friend who asked for precisely this advice for roto, here are some of those hitting options by category, all available in at least 50 percent of ESPN standard formats.

Batting average: Other than Villar, hitting a cool .299 over the past 30 days, try one of many Tampa Bay Rays going unnoticed this season but performing nicely of late, like Joey Wendle, Kevin Kiermaier, Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe (the Rays are playing great). In addition, there is the Cardinals' Kolten Wong, the Mets' Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo, Pittsburgh's Adam Frazier and Colin Moran, and a bevy of others mentioned in other statistical categories below as well. It is tough to predict batting average for most. We know the power hitters could keep providing power, but batting average is different. Wendle has been solid (No. 48 hitter on the 30-day rater) and is eligible at three positions. I definitely recommend him.

Runs scored: There will be obvious overlap here as well, but I cannot fathom why Mets shortstop Amed Rosario remains out there in two-thirds of leagues. He has hit .291 with 27 runs and 9 steals since Aug. 1, and it all looks legit. He has outplayed Trea Turner in that span, and he appears a similar statistical option moving forward, but next season Turner goes in Round 1 and Rosario, I do not know, perhaps Round 15? Adames has scored 23 runs since Aug. 1. Look for players atop lineups, whether they offer speed or not. Detroit third baseman Jeimer Candelario has struggled in the second half, but he has scored more runs than Villar, Manny Machado, Rhys Hoskins and Jose Ramirez since Aug. 1.

Home runs and runs batted in: We can probably combine these two stats since the first ties directly into the second. So many great options available! Houston's Tyler White just surpassed 50 percent rostered, but young Padres outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes have not. I question batting average for them for a full season, but each is close to .300 over the past month, and with legit power. They are hitting well at home too. I also like Royals first baseman Ryan O'Hearn, slugging .637 in 102 at-bats, with 10 home runs. He had power in the minors too. Baltimore's Trey Mancini, the Cardinals' Paul DeJong, the Yankees' Luke Voit, Atlanta's Dansby Swanson, Cincinnati's Phillip Ervin and Scott Schebler, and the White Sox's Daniel Palka qualify as well. Check schedules for opposing pitchers, too. O'Hearn has to face lefties the next two games, but after that, the lefty hitter has sweet matchups.

Stolen bases: No player has stolen more bases since the All-Star break than Royals middle infielders Whit Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi. Merrifield is awesome, a potential top-50 pick next year. Mondesi is rostered in 19 percent of leagues. Go get him. Royals teammate Alex Gordon has seven steals over 30 days, which makes no sense, and he is adding no other value, but hey, if you need the steals then get him. Other than Villar, Rosario, McNeil, Wendle and Mallex Smith, the latter just passing the 50 percent threshold but perhaps available in your league anyway, look at the Padres' Travis Jankowski, the White Sox's Yolmer Sanchez, Detroit's Niko Goodrum, the Mets' Todd Frazier and I really like Oakland's Ramon Laureano, who is more than just a rifle arm in center field. Cleveland's Greg Allen is running, but the Josh Donaldson activation likely costs him some playing time. The latest injury to Roman Quinn costs him time. Terrance Gore has five stolen bases for the Cubs in his 10 days with the club, but that is almost literally all he offers. He has batted twice! Still, five more steals from him could decide your league.

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals: 5-for-8, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs

• Didi Gregorius, SS, New York Yankees: 2-for-3, HR, 4 RBIs

• David Peralta, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: 1-for-3, HR, SB, 2 RBIs

• Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

• Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 6 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

Lowlights:

• Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals: 1-for-7, 4 K

• Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Tanner Roark, SP, Washington Nationals: 4 2/3 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

• Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Detroit Tigers: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

• Luke Weaver, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: 2/3 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Tuesday takeaways:

Edwin Encarnación hit his 30th HR of the season. He's the 3rd Indians player with 30+ HR in 2018.
It's the 5th time in franchise history the Indians have had 3 30-HR hitters, and the first time since 1999, when Manny Ramírez , Richie Sexson and Jim Thome did so.
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 12, 2018

• The Indians threw together a lineup on Tuesday with All-Stars at literally every hitting spot. No, it is true. Encarnacion is one of them, of course, and it is the seventh-consecutive season he has reached 30 home runs, which is about as good as one can get on the consistency-meter. No, Encarnacion is not helping your batting average -- he never really did -- but he is not Joey Gallo, either. Oh, by the way, the Indians debuted third baseman Josh Donaldson, and he was quiet in four at-bats out of the No. 5 lineup spot, but at least he looked healthy. What a lineup this could be if everyone is clicking. I doubt Donaldson is deployed every game from here on out, but he can still aid a fantasy team.

• Bieber was the star of the game with his 11 strikeouts and three hits allowed over 6 2/3 innings, and he continues to evolve into an occasional pitcher we must take seriously. I invested in Bieber in several leagues, both fantasy and simulation, because his control is impeccable and I thought he would miss bats. Well, he struck out two Rays hitters in each of the first five innings Tuesday, which is rare in itself. Bieber issued a season-high three walks. He has allowed too many hits to lefty hitters, but if he can minimize that and keep the K rate, watch out. His current 4.32 ERA does not match the 3.01 FIP. Believe the FIP.

• Boston Red Sox lefty Chris Sale and his sore shoulder came off the DL in what was projected to be a two-inning stint, but he threw 26 pitches in the first inning and that was it! Sale's inning was run-free, but he allowed a hit, and he hit Kendrys Morales. Who knows if Sale gets to throw 100 pitches in any game the rest of the month? Do not cut Sale, but for those on start limits, the bench might be a safer spot for the Cy Young contender depending on workload.

• It is hard to believe how good Washington's Soto is. Not only did he homer twice in the second game of the doubleheader sweep in Philadelphia, putting him on a short list of players who hit for this much power as a teenager, he is hitting the ball to all fields, and his plate discipline remains top-notch. It is a joy to watch. Soto has 70 walks versus 88 strikeouts! There are only three players qualified for the batting title with a batting average of at least .300, an on-base percentage better than .400 and a slugging percentage higher than .500 (Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mike Trout). Soto is doing this at age 19! He even made a brilliant catch in left field, jumping into the stands. Ronald Acuna Jr. might win top rookie honors, but Soto is also, right with him, a future superstar.

Health report:

• Padres second baseman Luis Urias pulled his left hamstring on Tuesday and is likely done for the season. Do not look at his .208 batting average next March. Urias is a high-contact hitter with enough pop to hit double-digit home runs, and he should be the team's No. 2 hitter for years to come. I cannot say he makes my top-10 second basemen, but he is not far from it.

• Atlanta Braves third baseman Johan Camargo, with a .318 batting average and five home runs over the past 30 days, injured a groin Tuesday and likely sits for Charlie Culberson for a few days, at least. Culberson, of course, replaced Camargo and homered. The Braves are cruising to the NL East title and do not figure to be pushing injured players into the lineup.

W2W4:

• Los Angeles Angels right-hander Ty Buttrey appears to be the team's new closer, as he saved games Tuesday and last Friday. Buttrey, 25, was always a big strikeout option in the minors for Boston, but not a closer. He came to L.A. in the Ian Kinsler trade, and with Blake Parker handling eighth-inning work, and not all that well, Buttrey could be a legit closer.

• With Brad Boxberger and Archie Bradley pitching so poorly that they cannot be used in leverage situations for a bit, Arizona manager Torey Lovullo turned to Yoshihisa Hirano, and he earned save No. 1 with no issues. Hirano does not throw with great velocity, but he gets outs. Lefty Jake Diekman actually started the ninth inning and put a few men on base, so he should continue to get ninth-inning work as well.

W2W4:

• Check out Milwaukee right-hander Chase Anderson and Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. Anderson has fine numbers this season despite the 29 home runs, a figure eclipsed by only Dylan Bundy and Bartolo Colon. His WHIP works at 1.16, so if all he does is allow home runs, we can live with it. Hendricks allowed four runs in his most recent outing, but one earned, so that makes four earned runs total over four starts. Much better. Watch to see if Kyle Schwarber and his sore back return to the Chicago lineup.

• I would sit Yankees right-hander Luis Severino at Minnesota because I want to win my league championship, and relying on a pitcher with the third-most earned runs allowed since the All-Star break seems counterproductive to that goal, at least to me. Severino has two quality starts, out of 11 chances, since July 1. I know how great he was last season, and I do not care because he is struggling mightily. Even this current Twins lineup can do damage.

HacheMan · Sep 13, 2018

Karablog: Searching for the next Blake Snell

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

Hall of Famer Randy Johnson walked more than 100 hitters in three consecutive seasons early in his career with the Seattle Mariners. My, ahem, ancestors have regaled me with bedtime stories of his greatness -- how they absolutely loved the strikeouts and the potential of greatness, if only the wild lefty could simply harness his control. Well, in 1993, it happened, and Johnson moved up from being a "curiosity" with mad upside to a Cy Young-caliber ace and created his special path of historical greatness. Sometimes it takes a bit of time.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Walkers can be scary to invest in, and I tend to be wary of anyone who can't throw strikes on a consistent basis, but young Blake Snell always showed massive strikeout upside, and it is why we kept investing. The Tampa Bay Rays left-hander seemed to figure things out midway through last season, cutting into his walk rate without missing bats. After going winless for the first four months of 2017, his second season, Snell went 5-1 from Aug. 1 on. He posted a 2.90 ERA, finding more success with his curveball and inducing weak contact, which has continued into 2018. We could see the path to greatness, but Snell nevertheless went ignored in ESPN ADP, falling all the way to Round 23. Today, that seems ridiculous.

Snell will be one of the top 10 pitchers in 2019 drafts for sure, and he might even have a Cy Young Award on his mantel after winning his 19th game on Wednesday, when he toyed with the AL Central champion Indians over seven pristine innings. Jose Ramirez homered, and that was it, Cleveland's lone hit. Snell struck out nine for the third-consecutive outing, lowering his ERA to 2.03 and his WHIP to 0.98. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are the lone starting pitchers ahead of him on the Player Rater, due to more innings pitched and strikeouts.

We all know how good Snell is now, but how can fantasy managers prepare for the next breakout that suddenly finds control? Well, that's a good question. Snell was not among last season's walk leaders because he missed time and too many of his outings were short ones. His walk rate, which is a far better indicator of issues, was exorbitant. Wade Miley, Derek Holland and Jhoulys Chacin are examples of walk leaders from last season who have greatly improved in 2018, but they are not young.

Next spring, I will be throwing a late pick at Chicago White Sox right-handers Lucas Giolito and/or Reynaldo Lopez. Giolito is second in baseball in walks, behind only Cubs right-hander Tyler Chatwood, but if Snell's emergence taught us anything, it's that season-long numbers are not as important as second-half trends. Giolito boasts a 4.98 ERA and 1.26 WHIP after the All-Star break, with 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings. His first half was brutal. I care about the second half and, no matter what happens in his final few outings, he already made his point. No, I do not think Giolito is the next Snell. He can be the next Mike Foltynewicz, though. Jon Gray can do it. Many pitchers who start out lacking control can suddenly discover it, so be willing to invest.

[h=2]Wednesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

Francisco Arcia, C, Los Angeles Angels: 3-for-4, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs
Curtis Granderson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 3-for-4, HR, 3 R
DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Colorado Rockies: 3-for-5, HR, 2 RBIs
Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets: 8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
David Price, SP, Boston Red Sox: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Lowlights:

Yolmer Sanchez, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox:0-for-6, 4 K
Kevin Kramer, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates: 0-for-4, 4 K
Andrew Cashner, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 2 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

Wednesday takeaways:

If hypothetically, @JakeOdorizzi were no-hitting the Yankees through 7 innings, we would love to inform you of said situation.
This is totally a hypothetical, so there is no way if this was really happening that we could jinx it. pic.twitter.com/7zHyMcVGRl
- MLB (@MLB) September 13, 2018

Odorizzi finally allowed a hit and left after 7.1 innings and 120 pitches on Wednesday, eventually earning his sixth win in 16 decisions. His ERA is 4.41. It has not been the best season for Odorizzi. Still, more eyes were on Yankees right-hander Luis Severino, who allowed four hits and a run in 5.2 innings. His line looks good, perhaps better than he actually pitched, but no matter. I cannot make any case to activate Severino in a fantasy league for the rest of the season, as he faces the Red Sox twice and the Rays once. It is up to you.
Boston's Price, however, was awesome again on Wednesday and is now fourth in ERA since the All-Star break, trailing Trevor Williams, Wheeler and Snell. That's it. Price last lost a game on July 1, and nine of his past 10 outings have been quality starts. Was I necessarily wrong about Price? Well, he has made 28 starts, winning 15 with a 3.42 ERA and over a 9.00 K/9. I did not think the elbow would hold up for this many starts, and I will be cautious in 2019, but he has to be a top-20 starter in the rankings.
I cannot get enough of those runnin' Royals. Whit Merrifield stole two more bases, and Adalberto Mondesi has four steals in nine September games. Even Alex Gordon has three. One might wonder about 2019 if there is a new manager, but Mondesi has 22 steals in 58 games and 211 PA. Extrapolate that out, and it is mind-boggling for this era. He could be a terrific fantasy option, even without any plate discipline. Oh, and Merrifield was on so many bust lists this season and now is the No. 20 overall option on the Player Rater. Sometimes you just have to believe.

Health report:

White Sox second baseman Yoan Moncada has a sore hip, so his race to break the all-time strikeout record is on hold. Moncada has a whopping 196 whiffs. Wow! No, he will not be hitting .280 with that K-rate of 33 percent and, unfortunately, he is not stealing many bases. He is also just 23. Give him a late look in 2019.
Mariners left-hander James Paxton has an illness and will not be starting on Friday night against the Angels. Well, at least it is not his arm. Paxton has made 26 starts. He will not reach 30. Again. Sigh.

Closing time:

Perhaps it's simply time to give up on the Arizona bullpen. Brad Boxberger and Archie Bradley have been so awful that Yoshihisa Hirano saved Tuesday's win. However, on Wednesday, LeMahieu homered off him, and it was another crushing Arizona defeat. Brad Ziegler might be next, but how can that go well?
Ryan Pressly got the save for the Astros because Roberto Osuna and Hector Rondon were deemed to be unavailable. Pressly has emerged with a terrific season and should soon reach 100 strikeouts. Four relief pitchers have hit that triple-digit milestone. Pressly might well be someone's closer in 2019.

W2W4:

Rain permitting, the Red Sox will send lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill against Toronto, and while his most recent outing against Houston went poorly, this is someone to invest in. Rodriguez boasts 126 strikeouts in 113.2 innings. He does not go deep into games, but with the offense on this club, he still has four more wins than looming NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom.
It's a big series for the Dodgers and Cardinals, and one would normally say that anyone facing Clayton Kershaw is worth sitting, but Cardinals LHP Austin Gomber is 4-0 as a starter with a 2.78 ERA and decent strikeouts. Do not automatically sit Gomber. After all, the Cardinals do lead the major leagues in runs since the All-Star break.

HacheMan · Sep 18, 2018

Karablog: Top closer trends of 2018 and strategies for next season

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS

The AL West tells us quite a bit about why investing in closers -- either for dynasty purposes or early in redraft formats -- can be so dangerous. Back in March, the closers for this division were, in order of their average draft position, Edwin Diaz and Ken Giles in Round 11, and then considerably later on it was Blake Treinen, Blake Parker and Alex Claudio. Diaz has had an incredible season, as has late-round pick Treinen, but Giles was bad and then traded, Parker has shared the role and does not appear to have it today while Claudio has one save all season, and recently started a game.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Diaz and Treinen are fighting it out statistically to end up the top closer on the Player Rater, but regardless of how it finishes up, Oakland's option deserves the MVP award among relief pitchers for fantasy purposes. Sure, Diaz has 56 saves and 120 strikeouts. The former stat could still break the all-time record and the latter ranks second among all relief pitchers to Milwaukee Brewers lefty Josh Hader. Treinen boasts, entering Tuesday, mirror-image ERA and WHIP figures of 0.85 with 37 saves and 7 wins. One of them, however, barely was a selection in most drafts. He is the winner.

As the six-month journey of a season comes to its end, let us celebrate the relief pitchers that helped us in fantasy and discuss a few trends as well.

Not all about saves: Sure, we love the three pitchers who have crossed 40 saves for the season, with Boston's Craig Kimbrel and Colorado's Wade Davis joining Diaz, but we crave ERA, strikeouts and consistency. Dominance helps, too. Hader has 11 saves this season, but leads relievers with 133 strikeouts, and that latter number ties him with starters Stephen Strasburg, Jake Arrieta and Eduardo Rodriguez at No. 65. That is incredible and incredibly valuable. Hader, like Cleveland's Andrew Miller in recent seasons, should be a coveted selection even if the saves are not there.

Not so bad after all: Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen was the consensus No. 1 choice among relief pitchers in drafts, in the fourth round and just a bit ahead of Kimbrel, but we could all see in early April that something was not quite right. Jansen struggled to find fastball velocity and avoid home runs and eventually hit the disabled list in August with an irregular heartbeat, which could need offseason repair. Overall, his numbers place him sixth among closers on the Rater. We can live with that. I maintain that closers are not worthy selections early in drafts, and several from the top-5 on draft day have had issues (Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, Roberto Osuna, Corey Knebel).

Not so valuable after all: While Treinen, Diaz and Hader comprise the top-tier of fantasy MVP options at relief pitcher, there is no shortage of LVP choices based on ADP. Start with Milwaukee's Knebel, a successful closer for one season who could not maintain health, consistency and control in his follow-up. Knebel was a bust of a ninth-round pick. Giles and Cody Allen followed a few rounds later and neither has been great, but at least they have saved games. Later on in drafts, we see that Mark Melancon, Andrew Miller and Hector Neris were hardly worth it. It is tough to make a declarative statement about what that teaches us moving ahead. I will rely on one-year closers. Knebel can still be a great one.

Not afraid to trade: Fantasy managers get over-worried about closers that could be on the real-life move. Well, more than a few closers traded uniforms this summer, but Brad Hand, Osuna and Giles continued to save games for their new teams. Alex Colome, Fernando Rodney, Keone Kela, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria did not. Stuff like this is unpredictable, so do not try to guess next April. Raisel Iglesias and Shane Greene could have joined them, but they did not. Roles change during a season. Ask Tampa Bay's Sergio Romo, who saved six games total the previous three seasons, started five games for the Rays and now boasts 22 saves.

Not bad for a rookie: St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jordan Hicks averages more than 100 MPH with his fastball, and that is something we have never seen before. The Cardinals seemed apprehensive about giving him consistent save chances, going with Greg Holland, Bud Norris and now former starter Carlos Martinez, but Hicks sure seems to have lofty save and strikeout totals in his future, perhaps in 2019. A.J. Minter and Seranthony Dominguez lead rookies with 14 saves apiece; the former figured to set up Arodys Vizcaino in Atlanta, then seized the role, while the latter was a starter in the minor leagues for Philadelphia until they became desperate in the bullpen. These fellows should get a chance for saves in 2019 and beyond, as well as rookies Trevor Hildenberger, Drew Steckenrider and Ty Buttrey.

Not-too-early 2019 rankings: First of all, my first relief pitchers do not show up in the first five rounds of my rankings. Jansen, Kimbrel, Diaz and Treinen feel like a top tier on their own, but more like Round 8 or so. If I do not get them at all, so be it. Give me JosPene Leclerc and Kirby Yates 15 rounds later! Perhaps Mr. Rodney sticks around and finds work as a closer somewhere. He was performing just fine in Minnesota! The rest of my early top-10 closers is Chapman, Felipe Vazquez, Osuna, Hand, Davis and at No. 10, Hader. Love those strikeouts even if Knebel and/or Jeremy Jeffress get the ninth inning.

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 4-for-4, HR, 4 RBI

• Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

• Dan Vogelbach, 1B, Seattle Mariners: 1-for-1, HR, 4 RBI

• Ryan Borucki, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

• Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs: 8 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Lowlights:

• Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays: 0-for-3, 2 K

• Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves: 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 2 K

• Jon Gray, SP, Colorado Rockies: 2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

• Hector Rondon, RP, Houston Astros: 1 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

Recent takeaways:

Christian Yelich is the 5th player in MLB history with multiple cycles in one season, joining Long John Reilly (1883), Tip O'Neill (1887), Babe Herman (1931) and Aaron Hill (2012).

He's the first to hit multiple cycles against the same team in the same season.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/lqMPTe4zFe
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 18, 2018

• For those still playing for something in 2018, it had to be a joy to watch Yelich run around the bases on Monday night and perhaps secure the NL MVP award as well. Then again, Yelich was the No. 40 in ESPN ADP this season and is rostered everywhere. I suspect he might be a top-20 selection in 2019, especially if he wins the MVP award. Yelich is a true five-category player. As for available Brewers, I cannot help but notice another Domingo Santana home run, and wonder what team gets him for 2019. I will likely be recommending Santana, who was so great in 2017, if guaranteed to play next year. Frankly, he should be playing over Ryan Braun (.227 batting average in the past month), but whatever. On the mound, lefty Wade Miley tossed five shutout innings. He has a 2.08 ERA in 14 starts but remains readily available. I do not know what more we need to see. Yes, Miley was awful the past three seasons in the American League. He is not awful today.

• Kansas City Royals infielder Adalberto Mondesi, Washington Nationals outfielder Juan Soto and Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig are the top options on the Player Rater over the past week. Mondesi just keeps running; that is 25 stolen bases in 63 games, with nine home runs. Yes, that is more home runs than walks and I do not care. I might rank him top-100 overall next season on the chance he hits 20 homers with 50 steals. Soto is awesome, of course, and we knew that, but his three-steal game over the weekend adds another surprising dimension. Soto did not run in the minors. He is 19. He can run if he wants to. Puig had a three-homer game over the weekend and is closing in on a 20/20 season. He still does not hit left-handed pitching, but does plenty of damage to right-handers. He is a fine third outfielder in fantasy.

• Zack Wheeler, Miles Mikolas, Luis Castillo, Borucki and Hendricks are the top pitchers on the Rater for the past week. Wheeler has been amazing the second half of the season and while I think he falls just a bit short of my top 20 starters for 2019 rankings, he is not far from that. Comparing him to Foltynewicz, who was terrible on Monday, is interesting. Wheeler probably has more upside. Mikolas is not a big strikeout option, but his first season back in MLB has been a great success, with 16 wins and a 3.02 ERA. This does not mean all American pitchers returning from Japan will be awesome, though. Castillo was great as a rookie, and inconsistent in the follow-up season. I will likely pretend he was better than his numbers showed this season for 2019 drafts. Borucki is a rather ordinary lefty sans major strikeout potential. Hendricks might return to the top 20 after a nice close to his season.

Health report:

• Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts experienced left-side soreness Sunday but claims he will play on Tuesday. Fantasy managers with something to play for hope he not only plays but he plays well. We do not need a hero going 2-for-20 this week. I cannot imagine the Red Sox, with the AL East and home field all but clinched, let Betts play if he is not close to 100 percent.

• Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, certainly a candidate for fantasy MVP among the hitters this season due to his amazing numbers and the acquisition cost (for a blog entry next week!), left his game during a Monday at-bat with elbow soreness. It was strange. Story might need some rest. Again, this does not help weekly managers, but in daily formats, as long as we have clarity on whether he is in the lineup, we can react.

Closing time:

• San Francisco Giants lefty Will Smith earned his 13th save, and should get a chance to remain the closer next spring as well, even if Melancon is right. Lefty save options are out there, from Hand to Sean Doolittle, Minter, Jace Fry and Vazquez, so it is good to see open-minded real-life managers out there.

W2W4:

• Kyle Freeland and Clayton Kershaw face off in a critical game at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers won Monday and they lead the NL West. Some will say Freeland is a poor option because he is facing the awesome, future Hall of Famer lefty Kershaw, but Freeland ranks better on the season Rater. He has 15 wins and a 2.96 ERA and it might be the best season for a Rockies starter, ever. Do not bench him. By the way, Matt Holliday should be in the Rockies lineup, and he homered off Kershaw last week.

• Austin Gomber and Anibal Sanchez is not quite the same level of matchup, but catch these fellows on ESPN in another big game. The Cardinals are fighting for the wild card, while the Braves should cruise to the NL East title but would like to rest players next week. Gomber's most recent outing was his worst in a long time. It is best to keep trusting the lefty, who has been consistent. Sanchez had a walks problem in his most recent outing, but the 3.01 season ERA is legit, and comes with strikeouts. I would prefer Sanchez for this matchup.

• On Wednesday, ESPN features a doubleheader with David Price meeting Luis Severino in the first game and Tyler Anderson at Dodger Stadium against Walker Buehler after. I would sit Severino, who has a 6.35 ERA since the All-Star break, against this awesome offense. I would sit Anderson, who was so good for so long this season but is winless with a 7.40 ERA since the break. He has been awful in road games, too.