Fantasy Baseball News 2018

[HacheMan]

What can be learned from Xander Bogaerts' bounce-back season​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

A baseball player can have one strong season and one rough one and fantasy managers seem conditioned to assume the worst, that the good season was the unlikely one. This form of recency bias happens all the time, but can lead to misevaluation. Such is the case with Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts, hitter of home runs in three of the four weekend games at Seattle.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Bogaerts smacked 21 home runs in 2016. Fantasy managers loved him. Last season he hit only 10. We know a hand injury played a role but for so many people that was irrelevant. This is how quickly the value of a fantasy building block alters.

​

<alsosee style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",Times,serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration: none; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">Bogaerts, 25, spent much of this season in the No. 5 lineup spot, right after slugging outfielder J.D. Martinez, but now he might be moving up to third, the spot he was in Sunday when he hammered a Chasen Bradford slider over the left-center field fence to salt away a 9-3 win in the battle of playoff-bound clubs.


Bogaerts also homered off right-hander Felix Hernandez and lefty James Paxton in the series, and his 12 home runs puts him on pace for a career-best 27. All this comes after Bogaerts saw his fly ball rate plummet to barely 30 percent last season. He is healthy, hitting baseballs hard and in the air again.


Fantasy managers made Bogaerts a seventh-round choice in ESPN ADP, quite a drop from a year earlier, because they tend to overreact and believe only the most recent data on a player, and yes, Bogaerts was not special in 2017. His Player Rater rank at shortstop was 16th, after barely edging out Orlando Arcia and Tim Beckham.


Lineup position can be important and Bogaerts ended up in the No. 6 spot quite a bit, and taking a large measure of blame for the Red Sox ranking last in the American League in home runs. They are currently second in baseball with 104. The presence of Martinez and rejuvenation of Mookie Betts is key, but Bogaerts looks like the 2016 version again.


In fact, Bogaerts is showing signs of greater growth and not just from a weekend in Seattle. He is swinging at many more pitches in the strike zone, nearly 62 percent, according to Fangraphs/Baseball Info Solutions, and that is up from 53 percent a season ago when Bogaerts seemed passive. When he did swing the bat he made hard contact, but 49 percent of the time it was a ground ball.


That was nearly as rough as 2015, when he posted a 52.9 percent ground ball rate. It is difficult to hit home runs that way. Bogaerts looks healthy, which is key, and the perception that he cannot provide power is gone. Now we hope for annual consistency and this will again be a top-50 fantasy option.


The Red Sox remain led by Betts, Martinez and second-year outfielder Andrew Benintendi, looking like a top-20 player with his pace for 27 homers, 27 stolen bases and 113 runs scored, while Bogaerts was not the only infielder to statistically enjoy his weekend.


Slumping first baseman Mitch Moreland, switched with Bogaerts in the lineup, singled in a pair of runs in his second at-bat. Third baseman Rafael Devers followed him with a three-run home run, and stroked multiple hits in three of the games. Devers also stole bases in the first two games of the series, though that is likely by circumstance, not a harbinger of Billy Hamilton-like exploits to come. As for second baseman Dustin Pedroia, back on the DL with more knee problems, I am assuming he will not be a major contributor this season.


[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]
</alsosee>

Box scores

Highlights:

Randal Grichuk, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: 3-for-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB

Eric Thames, 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI, SB

Michael Taylor, OF, Washington Nationals: 3-for-4, 2 RBI, 4 SB

Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K

Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 8 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Lowlights:

Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers: 0-for-4, 4 K

Hunter Renfroe, OF, San Diego Padres: 0-for-4, 4 K

Chase Anderson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 5 1/3 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

Joe Musgrove, SP/RP, Pittsburgh Pirates: 4 1/3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Wade Davis, RP, Colorado Rockies: 1/3 IP, 2 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 0 K

Sunday takeaways:

​

The Rockies spent $106 million between Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw this offseason. Colorado's bullpen has a collective 5.49 ERA, 2nd-worst in MLB.
The trio mentioned above has a 5.75 ERA this season.
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 17, 2018
​

• Hmm, is that good? It seems quite bad. We know it is not easy to pitch for the Rockies, not only for home games in the thin air of Denver but also in the adjustments needed for the road games. Sunday's brutal loss happened in the heart of Texas, when Davis threw a mere 15 of his 38 pitches for strikes and a rookie catcher named Jose Trevino, who skipped Triple-A and just became a father last week, sent the home fans home happy with a two-run single to win it. Davis entered play with a 3.29 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, so it seems a bit crazy for fantasy managers to panic on a fellow with 20 saves. Davis had issued four walks over the past month. His walk rate jumped last season with the Cubs but he remained effective and, with cautious usage, healthy. I was never a fan of Davis' fantasy value, so I would not necessarily buy low here, but he should surpass 35 saves. Adam Ottavino, a potential All-Star now off the DL, is next in line over McGee and Shaw.

• Atlanta's Teheran left his outing after 95 pitches due to a hamstring cramp, but with that many pitches he was not finishing off a no-hitter anyway. The right-hander, who came off the DL for the outing after a minor thumb injury, brought his ERA to the good side of 4, but there are concerns. For one, he is not cracking 90 MPH with his fastball this season, so while his K rate is up a bit -- thanks to overwhelming the Padres on Sunday -- it is tough to be confidence statistically. I would prefer teammate Mike Foltynewicz, who went on the DL with triceps tightness, but should start later this week.

• Kudos to Washington's Taylor for running wild on Toronto catcher Russell Martin and taking over the big league lead in stolen bases, with one more than teammate Trea Turner. Taylor stole 17 bases in 118 games last season, and entered Sunday with that many steals. While fantasy managers question the playing time, because Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton and Juan Soto are better hitters, there are health questions for several, so Taylor keeps playing. Frankly, with his plate discipline and anchor of a batting average, we would prefer some days off.

Injuries of note:

• Cleveland Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco hit the DL Sunday with the word "forearm" as the reason, but it might not be what you think. A Joe Mauer line drive struck Carrasco on Saturday and this does not appear to be grounds for a long absence. Carrasco's ERA is a bit bloated, and Sunday's abbreviated outing did not help, but everything looks good in his stat line. Go get him. Rookie right-hander Shane Bieber started Sunday and acquitted himself well; Bieber is going to give up a lot of hits, but his command is so pristine, he can still excel and miss bats.

• Chicago Cubs infielder Javier Baez, No. 20 on the Player Rater, left his Sunday game after a Jack Flaherty pitch struck his elbow. The team does not seem too worried and I would leave Baez active in weekly formats this week.

Closing time:

• Colorado's Davis was not alone in struggling Sunday. Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Brad Boxberger and Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Hector Neris made it a trifecta of closers permitting four earned runs, rare indeed for closers. Perhaps Neris is not Philly's closer, but Seranthony Dominguez was his setup man in Saturday's win, so who knows. Neris permitted no-doubt home runs to Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar, each of whom is deserving of fantasy attention at the same or a better level than scuffling Ryan Braun. I think Dominguez is the lone Phillies reliever that must be rostered. As for Boxberger, who permitted home runs to New York Mets Brandon Nimmo - he is unstoppable! - and Asdrubal Cabrera, there is no indication he is in danger of losing the role. Setup man Archie Bradley leads the big leagues with 19 holds. I presume he remains in the role.

W2W4:

The Mets enter Monday 28th in runs scored, ahead of just the Marlins and Orioles, but a series at Coors Field should help things. Right-hander Jacob deGrom offers his MLB-leading 1.55 ERA, but it has not led to many victories because of the mess around him. I would personally leave the big league leader in ERA active for a game in any stadium, but reasonable minds can differ. There will not be many chances to recommend Mets hitters other than the fantastic Nimmo, but facing lefty Tyler Anderson in Denver is one of them. Check it out on ESPN+.

• ESPN TV features Arizona's Zack Greinke and the Angels' Jaime Barria, and the rookie has the better ERA by more than a run. Greinke was roughed up at Colorado 10 days ago, which tends to happen, but followed up with a worse performance in Pittsburgh, which is not normal. Greinke walked four Pirates. That is a trend to watch, though not likely to continue. The home run rate could continue, though. This remains a top-20 pitcher, but with rough road numbers.​

 

[HacheMan]

Closer report: How Kelvin Herrera trade alters bullpens for Nationals, Royals​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Washington Nationals

left-hander ​

Sean Doolittle

enters Tuesday as fantasy's No. 3 closer on the ​

Player Rater

, with 18 saves, a minuscule ERA and WHIP, and ridiculous strikeout-to-walk rate. He is not losing the ninth-inning role to anyone this week, let alone former ​

Kansas City Royals

right-hander ​

Kelvin Herrera

, acquired Monday night for three rather ordinary prospects.


It is smart of the Nationals, especially in light of recent struggles by prime setup man Ryan Madson, to seek aid, and the last-place Royals certainly have little need for an established closer. Trading Herrera while his ERA and WHIP are outstanding but not quite in line with his recent seasons of performance is smart as well. Good move by the Nationals and Royals, but for Herrera's fantasy value, well, it is not so good.

Oh sure, injury is always a possibility and with the way Madson has pitched of late, Herrera likely moves into the enviable position of top setup man on a contending team. Doolittle certainly has struggled to stay healthy over the years. He is 31, and last topped 52 big league innings in 2014. Herrera thus becomes an interesting handcuff for those in deep mixed formats, and certainly worth an addition in NL-only formats. I just do not expect more than a few saves.

This is similar to last month when the Tampa Bay Rays decided they were running out of reasonable time to trade closer Alex Colome, who led the sport with 47 saves last season but was able to do so via circumstance. Colome was not particularly great, with his 3.24 ERA and substandard -- for this era -- strikeout rate. Well, that is Herrera's plight. He is average, despite a solid start to this season. His ERA last year was 4.25, and he deserved all of it. Colome lost all fantasy value, except in case Seattle Mariners closer Edwin Diaz falters, and Herrera follows him to mostly fantasy irrelevance.

Someone on the Royals, however, has to pitch the ninth innings with small leads and, unless I am missing something, it figures to be right-hander Kevin McCarthy, since he has generally pitched the eighth inning of late, or Brandon Maurer, because he has experience. McCarthy boasts five holds -- each in the past three weeks -- tying for the overall team lead with Brad Keller, currently a starter, and Tim Hill, a lefty one-out type of little consequence. Maurer just came back from Triple-A Omaha a few days ago. He pitched Sunday and did not retire either of the two hitters he faced, with Carlos Correa hitting a long home run. His ERA is 13.50.

As a result, it would probably make more sense that the save chances go to McCarthy, whose lowly strikeout rate of 5.6 per nine innings inspires little faith, but manager Ned Yost could elects to go with Maurer, saver of 35 career games. Still, do not expect either pitcher to be great and if choosing between one of them and, for example, Rays apparent fill-in closer Sergio Romo, who also moonlights as a starter on occasion, I go with Romo. These pitchers do not crack my top-30 relief pitchers.

OK, so that makes two American League teams that have parted with clear-cut closers and this could be a harbinger of more. After all, only six AL teams have more wins than losses. It would not be surprising if Baltimore Orioles lefty Zach Britton, Detroit Tigers right-hander Shane Greene, Minnesota Twins right-hander Fernando Rodney, Chicago White Sox right-hander Joakim Soria, Oakland Athletics right-hander Blake Treinen, Texas Rangers right-hander Keone Kela and even Tampa's Romo get sent packing to the NL, where more teams are contending. These pitchers could become setup men, too, and that would have obvious fantasy repercussions.

Here are other thoughts about relief pitchers:

We should not presume it is merely AL closers potentially on the move. San Diego Padres lefty Brad Hand would sure look good in any of the AL contender bullpens. It is also a mystery that the Cincinnati Reds still employ right-hander Raisel Iglesias, when they can lose 100 games without him. Miami Marlins Kyle Barraclough and Brad Ziegler would also probably enjoy pitching in meaningful September games.

Chicago's Soria boasts saves in his past six appearances, and he last permitted a run on May 18. Soria could be a seventh-inning guy on another team any day now, but is worth adding until that occurs. By the way, most of these closers will stay put. Soria could save 30 games. He is the most added closer in ESPN standard leagues for good reason.

I think it is reasonable to expect Houston right-handers Hector Rondon and Ken Giles to split saves until at least the All-Star break. Something to note: despite their lofty record, the Astros are not top 10 in save opportunities. Some teams that score many runs are like that. Only three clubs had fewer save opportunities than the 2016 champion Cubs.

Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Ryan Tepera is not getting many save chances, but he is pitching well enough to keep the closer role, so in that way he is similar to Romo and, I guess, McCarthy. I would take Tepera first, though. I do not think suspended Roberto Osuna is going to get the chance to pitch again this season.

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Hector Neris, a perfectly reasonable setup man and closer the past two seasons, saved Saturday's win at Milwaukee. On Sunday, he permitted two home runs and ended up demoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley by Monday. Things change fast in the major leagues! I would say Neris is not going to get big league save chances anytime soon, but I do not believe that. Seranthony Dominguez is unlikely to assume the traditional ninth-inning role. Victor Arano tried to save Monday's win, but Neris should fix whatever is wrong with his split-fingered fastball and get back to the team in July. For now, Dominguez is the lone Phillies reliever to roster in standard formats, but Arano and Edubray Ramos are intriguing as well.

It was a good story for a few weeks, but Washington right-hander Justin Miller, a 31-year-old journeyman striking everyone out and preventing runs, has now allowed runs in consecutive games. Don't run away yet, but get ready to do so.

I am no particular fan of the fantasy value for Colorado Rockies right-hander Wade Davis, but Sunday's blowup does not mean he is on the way out as closer. The winning hit, after a slew of walks, was a soft-hit blooper that simply found outfield grass.​

 

[HacheMan]

The return of Elvis Andrus​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Every baseball player that finished in the top 20 of last season's final Player Rater is rostered in more than 75 percent of ESPN standard leagues this season except for one. He is a veteran that gleaned fantasy value for years thanks to stolen bases, durability and playing shortstop, and then he finally turned into a surprise power hitter in 2017, joining eight others in the 20-homer, 20-steal club. On Monday night, this player returned to the Texas Rangers lineup after missing two months with a fractured elbow.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Welcome back, Elvis Andrus.

It is not the least bit surprising that impatient fantasy managers moved on from Andrus, who was hitting .327 with a pair of home runs after two weeks of the season. Two months is a long time. A Keynan Middleton pitch struck his elbow and changed everything, but now a 20/20 player has returned. Andrus is not readily available, but I was able to add him in a few leagues. A sixth-round choice in ESPN ADP, I guess I was a bit surprised I could still do that, but now we move on. Andrus hit in the No. 2 lineup spot on Monday, and he contributed a pair of walks and a run scored in the 6-3 win at Kansas City.

Andrus investors do not need reminders that he belongs on active rosters right away, but I do think it is important to remind fantasy managers what he achieved last season, and how he could clearly do so again. For years, I viewed Andrus as overrated in a statistical sense compared to draft day interest, because he was providing no power, a helpful batting average but short of .300, and inconsistent stolen base totals. Andrus stole 30 bases in each of his first three seasons, then topped that mark once in the next six years, despite pristine health. Jurickson Profar was supposed to push him aside, ironically. Last season Andrus added the power to his game, becoming a five-category talent. He still is this player, and can be a building block these final three-plus months.

This is where Profar comes into play, because the Rangers have a decision to make with his double play partner, and at least for one night, they made the right decision. Profar has two-thirds of his plate appearances this season in the Nos. 3-4-5 slots, so manager Jeff Banister obviously trusts him, and Profar has exceeded expectations, it is fair to say. Again, he did not seem to have power, but he has 8 home runs and 31 extra-base hits in 67 games. To think that Profar, finally emerging as a reliable player after years of injuries and underwhelming performance, gets reduced to bench duties while overrated second baseman Rougned Odor continues to struggle, contracts aside, makes little sense.

Profar pushed Odor aside in Monday's lineup, but we do not know the plan moving ahead. It is not a good time to invest in Odor. His .601 OPS is a problem we saw coming when the Rangers foolishly signed him long-term. Still only 24 -- Profar is actually a year older! -- Odor followed up his 33-homer breakout of 2016 with 30 home runs, but a 67-point drop in batting average thanks to awful plate discipline catching up to him. Pitchers adjusted, he did not. Odor simply wanted to hit home runs, and he aided fantasy managers with mid-teens stolen bases. Well, this season, the walk rate is finally up and reasonable, but it has replaced power. That is no good, either. Profar only recently passed Odor in being rostered in ESPN leagues. The Rangers really need to find a way to play both of them, and if so, then fantasy managers want Profar. He can be the second most valuable Rangers infielder, after the healthy 20/20 guy.

​

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets: 4-for-6, 2 HR, 4 RBI

Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: 3-for-4, HR, 2 R

Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians: 3-for-4, HR, 2 RBI

Trevor Williams, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K

Nick Pivetta, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

Lowlights:

Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers: 0-for-4, 3 K

Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies: 0-for-3, 3 K

Jaime Barria, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 4 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Miles Mikolas, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

Jeff Hoffman, RP, Colorado Rockies: 1/3 IP, 2 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

Monday takeaways:

​

Jacob deGrom now has a 1.16 ERA in his last 12 starts, 3 of which the Mets have won.
Per @EliasSports deGrom's 1.16 ERA is the lowest in a 12-start span in which his team won 3 or fewer games since earned runs were tracked officially (since 1912 in NL, 1913 in AL) pic.twitter.com/9aoHY1Wu72
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 19, 2018
​

• I would not have sat New York Mets right-hander Jacob deGrom at Coors Field, and it is a good thing. He tossed eight innings of two-run ball, only one of them earned, to earn his fifth win. People make it seem like deGrom never wins. OK, so five wins is not 10 like Max Scherzer or Luis Severino, but they do not have an ERA as low as 1.51, either. The Mets finally scored runs for deGrom, as Brandon Nimmo led off the game with an inside-the-park home run after his blast hit the center field wall and bounced awry. Later he hit a more conventional one. Michael Conforto had three hits. Wilmer Flores and Devin Mesoraco homered. Maybe the Mets can keep on scoring for Jason Vargas on Tuesday; he has two wins in eight starts, albeit with a 7.39 ERA. Time for the Rockies to score many runs.

• Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout was finally caught stealing on his 14th attempt. Hey, as Trout ages everyone should hope he has 14 steal attempts in June every season. I was half-hoping Trout would challenge Chase Utley, who holds the mark for most steals in a season without being caught, at 23. In other Angels outfield news, Kole Calhoun and his incomprehensible .145 batting average (and .179 slugging percentage!) returned from the DL with a different batting stance, more crouched and with lower hands. Calhoun singled twice. He used to be an underrated fantasy option and it would not be stunning if he mattered again, for those in deeper leagues.

• New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks homered for the second consecutive day and as Brett Gardner deals with a knee injury and a slump this could be important for fantasy managers. Hicks has been leading off and last season he produced 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases. He is well on his way to topping each of those numbers. Do not worry about Jacoby Ellsbury returning to the team and pushing for playing time with Hicks or Gardner.

Injuries of note:

• Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Williams was hit in the nose by a Matt Carpenter double that ricocheted off the right field wall, and he left the game. Williams competes for playing time with Aaron Altherr, and could need a DL stint. He is not rostered in many leagues, thanks to a low batting average and inconsistent playing time. If he would learn how to draw a walk and hit left-handed pitching, things would improve.

• New York Mets outfielder Jay Bruce was scratched before game time with hip soreness, which is exactly what his investors did not want to see for a Coors Field contest. Bruce has been a steady power source for a decade, but now he cannot hit for power or average. This is looking like a lost season. Oh well, at least the Mets employ Jose Bautista. They will be just fine. In other Mets injury news, Yoenis Cespedes and his sore hip are not ready for baseball activities. At this point I do not expect to see Cespedes until after the All-Star break.

Closing time:

• More on the relief pitchers in Tuesday's Closer Report, but late Monday night San Francisco Giants right-hander Hunter Strickland blew the save to the Miami Marlins, his fourth of the season. Lefty Tony Watson relieved Strickland. Mark Melancon earned holds in three of his past four outings, though it is unlikely he will be used anytime soon on consecutive days. Strickland probably gets another chance, but if he struggles, Watson and Melancon come into play for saves.

W2W4:

​

<strike></strike>

We have a day game added to the original slate, as the Cubs and Dodgers could not play through weather on Monday night, so they will play two -- weather permitting -- on Tuesday. Dodgers lefty Rich Hill is on the schedule to come off the DL and face Mike Montgomery, and the range of outcomes for Hill is quite vast. Avoiding blisters is his biggest problem. I would not activate him for this one. He could leave after facing one batter for all we know. Meanwhile, Cubs right-hander Tyler Chatwood probably issued a walk in his sleep. It would be nice if he could find his control Tuesday, because there is upside. That 1.75 WHIP, however, is atrocious.

• Atlanta Braves rookie right-hander Michael Soroka makes his fifth big league start. Of the first four, two were excellent and two were not good at all. He is 20, so this should not come as much surprise, but still, it makes it tough to project and rely on him, regardless of opponent. The Braves hitters should at least enjoy Blue Jays lefty Jaime Garcia, who has not won since mid-April.​

 

[HacheMan]

The intriguing potential of A's prospect James Kaprielian​

Tommy Rancel
ESPN INSIDER

Typically this space is reserved for a player that is on the cusp of a promotion to the major leagues or one that has just received that life-changing call. The player I want to talk about today has never pitched above the A-ball level. In fact, he has not thrown a pitch in any game in over a year. He is nowhere near close to a call up because he just started playing catch about a week ago. That said, James Kaprielian may be my favorite prospect in baseball.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>There is a difference between favorite and best. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the best prospect in baseball and is a ton of fun to watch. He is a superstar in the making. As much as I enjoy hearing the crack of his bat and the excitement of a walk-off home run in his home town, I am a sucker for a well-pitched ball game. It is an added bonus when the pitcher not only knows how to pitch, but also has awe-inspiring stuff to go with it.

Kaprielian is a two-time draftee. He was taken in the 40th round by the Seattle Mariners in 2012. He did not sign and went on to star for the UCLA Bruins before being drafted 16th overall by the New York Yankees in 2015. Since then it has been a struggle to stay on the field.

After being invited to big-league camp in the spring of 2016, Kaprielian got off to a quick start in Tampa. He struck out 22 batters and walked only three in 18 innings before a flexor tendon strain in his right elbow wiped out the rest of his regular season. He returned in the fall, pitching 27 innings in the Arizona Fall League where he continued to pitch well, striking out 26 batters with eight walks even though his ERA was slightly elevated.

Despite the lost time due to injury, and the relative inexperience as a professional, there was talk of Kaprielian making the Yankees out of camp in the spring of 2017. If not right out of spring training, he was to be on the short list of arms to help the big league club at some point in the season. Alas, he made just one appearance in March and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Nevertheless, an injured Kaprielian was still a key piece of the trade that brought Sonny Gray to the Yankees from the Oakland Athletics at the trade deadline just months after his surgery.

Once again, there was a lot of excitement this spring about Kaprielian pitching in the majors sooner than later. This time, the A's and their fans had visions of Kaprielian pitching alongside top prospect A.J. Puk as a potential 1-2 punch at the head of the rotation. Unfortunately, Puk suffered a similar fate to Kaprielian, undergoing Tommy John surgery before the season even started. Meanwhile, Kaprielian himself, was sidelined once more; this time with shoulder discomfort.

We do not know how Kaprielian's story will end, but a new chapter is beginning. Just last week, the talented right-hander began throwing once again. Obviously, the team will be diligent in their progression, but there is a good chance he takes the mound in a minor league town near you sooner than later. Because of his age (24) and missed time, the A's may very well decide to increase his competition quicker than usual while also being very cautious with his workload.

A healthy Kaprielian has top of the rotation potential. After throwing in the low-90s in college, he saw a velocity spike with the Yankees. He was routinely 95-98 mph with the fastball. He coupled a hard slider with a plus off-speed pitch behind it, mixing in a workable curveball as well. He had control with an understanding of how and when to use his pitches with the ability to manipulate location. In spite of the good news about his return to the field, it remains very unlikely that he holds any value -- real or fantasy -- in 2018. However, as the calendar shifts to 2019, it will be another spring opportunity for Kaprielian to finally break through and hopefully break out soon there after.​

 

[HacheMan]

Matt Carpenter and Cardinals getting calibrated​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

As one of the preeminent walkers in the majors, St. Louis Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter serves a special role for those in fantasy points leagues, as well as those favoring the walks category or on-base percentage. In roto leagues, however, Carpenter's value is a bit more debatable. After all, this is not a player who tends to hit for a high batting average, and his power is more of the moderate variety for this era. On top of that, while his infield versatility is nice -- he can play at first, second and third -- it's not like the old days when it was tough to find middle-infield options. Carpenter scores runs and tends to be more valuable to the Cardinals than he is to roto fantasy managers.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Then again, Carpenter was not so valuable to anyone four weeks ago when his batting average was a dismal .140 and manager Mike Matheny decided to give him a few days off to find his swing and approach. Fantasy managers tend to give up on guys hitting just .140 -- even proven options like Carpenter. I thought that was a great time to add him to my bench and did so on a few teams. Carpenter has repaid that faith by hitting .300 since then. His game-winning, ninth-inning home run off "untouchable" Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Seranthony Dominguez on Tuesday was his 12th blast of the season, with nine coming in the past 30 days.

Carpenter might not look statistically like Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who does hit for average, but these two left-handed hitters have something other than walks in common. These guys rarely swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Carpenter's rates a month ago actually showed a player that had just been really unlucky. He was hitting baseballs hard, but apparently right at defenders. He was drawing walks and swinging at the right pitches, too. It seemed like it was just going to be a matter of time before Carpenter turned his season around. I did not expect the power surge, though. Carpenter has homered in four of the past five games, and he's well on his way to topping the 23 home runs he had last season.

The Cardinals have disappointed offensively this season, but both Carpenter and outfielder Marcell Ozuna have turned things around. Injured shortstop Paul DeJong should start a minor-league rehab assignment relatively soon, and could return to the team before the end of the month. Tommy Pham and Jose Martinez are potential All-Stars, and catcher Yadier Molina is showing few signs of slowing down. Perhaps Dexter Fowler, a proven hitter, can find his swing as well. It seems like few pundits are giving the Cardinals much of a chance to win the NL Central, but this offense is showing its upside again.

​

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

​

• Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals: 4-for-4, HR, 2 R
  
  
  
• Johan Camargo, SS/3B, Atlanta Braves: 4-for-5, HR, 5 RBI
  
  
  
• Matt Carpenter, 1B/2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals: 2-for-5, HR, 3 RBI
  
  
  
• Mike Clevinger, SP, Cleveland Indians: 7 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K
  
  
  
• Domingo German, SP/RP, New York Yankees: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Lowlights:

​

• Ian Happ, 2B, Chicago Cubs: 0-for-8, 4 K
  
  
  
• Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 0-for-7, 2 K
  
  
  
• Marco Gonzales, SP, Seattle Mariners: 6 1/3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 5 K
  
  
  
• Jaime Garcia, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: 3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
  
  
  
• Michael Soroka, SP, Atlanta Braves: 4 2/3 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Tuesday takeaways:

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• Aaron Judge, of course, was supposed to come up to the majors and hit many home runs. Gleyber Torres was not. In fact, Torres -- as we keep reminding everyone -- hit just 24 home runs across five minor league seasons. He is going to hit more than 24 home runs as a big-league rookie, and perhaps many more than that. Torres, needing a few more at-bats to qualify for the batting title, would be close to the top 10 in isolated power -- which is stunning, but also something that absolutely can continue. He looks terrific. If this continues, the Yankees might move him around in the lineup a bit, out of the No. 9 spot. Remember, it was supposed to be Brandon Drury and Neil Walker playing second base. Drury, who has been out with migraines since the first week of April, is going to play first base at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, so there is little danger of Torres losing playing time.
  
  
  
  
• Dodgers left-hander Rich Hill came off the DL and tossed six shutout innings at Wrigley Field, allowing three singles and two walks while fanning six Cubs. It was easily Hill's best outing since his first one on April 1. The performance gives fantasy managers hope that -- if he can avoid the blisters -- Hill can act like a top-20 starting pitcher. Remember, Hill posted a 3.01 ERA over 31 starts for the Dodgers in 2016-17. He can indeed be valuable, but did enter Tuesday with a 6.20 ERA and 1.74 WHIP. Perhaps he really has figured out how to stay on the mound every fifth day.
  
  
  
  
• The Nationals altered their lineup and bumped leadoff hitter Trea Turner to the No. 6 spot, which seems rather odd since he has been getting on base and is arguably the best stolen-base threat in the National League (since Billy Hamilton rarely reaches first). Turner responded with a four-hit game and his eighth home run. Turner has yet to play 100 games in a season, but barring another injury he should hit more than 15 blasts and steal 40 bases. Nobody achieved that in 2017, and only Jonathan Villar and Eduardo Nunez did so in 2016. Turner is special. I would bat him first or second with Adam Eaton in the mix. On Tuesday, it was Eaton and Juan Soto at the top, followed by Anthony Rendon, the struggling Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy. If Harper keeps struggling, he might find himself batting sixth. Turner investors should not panic. He remains a first-round talent.
  
  

Injuries of note:

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• San Francisco Giants right-hander Hunter Strickland blew the save on Monday night against Miami and then managed to mess things up even worse, as he punched a wall and broke his hand. Strickland is likely out until August, so someone else will have to earn the saves. Manager Bruce Bochy did not mention the most experienced closer in the bullpen, Mark Melancon, but did note that lefty Tony Watson and right-hander Sam Dyson -- each with experience -- will factor in. I would add Dyson first. He is actually having a decent season. Strickland waited a while to be a closer but this might be it for his save total for 2018.
  
  
  
• Washington first baseman/outfielder Matt Adams looked so good in May, hitting nine home runs with 22 runs batted in. I really thought he might continue playing regularly, but that was before Juan Soto earned a promotion and played like an immediate star. Ryan Zimmerman was hurt at the time, and things have not changed there. Adams is actually hitting .350 in June, but his playing time has fizzled and now he is on the DL with a broken finger. Look for Daniel Murphy to handle first base and Wilmer Difo to handle the keystone. As for Zimmerman, there is no timetable on his return from a back/oblique injury.
  
  
  
• Phillies infielder J.P. Crawford suffered a broken left hand when hit by a pitch on Tuesday and will miss at least a month. That pushes embattled third baseman Maikel Franco back into the picture. Scott Kingery will continue to handle shortstop. Franco had a huge game on Sunday but, overall, this has been a rough season for him. It seems unlikely he will develop some plate discipline anytime soon or become relevant in 10-team fantasy leagues of any format. However, he probably did not enjoy his recent time on the bench. Sometimes that can be a great motivator.

Closing time:

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• Cubs right-hander Brandon Morrow was deemed unavailable for Tuesday's save chance with back tightness, so lefty Justin Wilson filled in and lost the game. Morrow has pitched only once in the past 12 days, and is on pace for fewer than 50 innings this season. This was the concern with Morrow this past winter. He has not pitched 50 innings in a season since 2013. Perhaps this is no big deal, but I sure would not be trading for Morrow. Setup man Carl Edwards Jr. could return from the DL soon, but if there is a save chance Wednesday, I would expect Pedro Strop to get the ball. Strop tossed two scoreless innings to set up Wilson on Tuesday.
  
  
  
• Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor announced that setup man Addison Reed would be removed from that role to pitch earlier in games. That could be significant should closer Fernando Rodney suddenly struggle. Rodney is having a nice season, actually. Reed, a popular handcuff pick in drafts, has permitted six home runs in 33 1/3 innings and, in his most recent outing, the Tigers got five hits and four runs off him. Right-hander Trevor Hildenberger is allowing too many home runs himself, but he did close in the minors and likely inherits top setup duties, in case it matters. I do not think it will. Rodney will save 35 games.

W2W4:

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• The first big league outing for Yankees rookie right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga went fairly well, as he fanned six Rays over five shutout innings. The only bummer was the four walks. Loaisiga is a shorter, command right-hander who earns strikeouts but rarely issues walks. Expect a good outing even against the Mariners. You do not want to rely on Felix Hernandez, however.
  
• It is a daily mystery which Phillies will be in the lineup and which relievers will be used in important roles, but the fellow to watch on Wednesday is right-hander Jake Arrieta. He is coming off three rough outings with a total of 18 runs allowed (13 earned) over 14 2/3 innings. Arrieta boasts one of the worst strikeout rates in the majors, which is a big problem for fantasy managers. That was something that could be overlooked when his ERA was a cool 2.66. Now it sits at 3.33, and potentially could rise even higher.
  
  
  
• The Rays and Astros meet on ESPN+ and this will be the second game back from the DL for center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, who led off in Tuesday's game and will likely do so again versus Charlie Morton. Kiermaier is fantastic defensively, but not doing a whole lot at the plate. He is obviously better than his .152 batting average, though, as he hit .276 with 15 home runs and 16 steals a year ago. In other words, it is a wise time to get this player before everyone figures out he is underrated in fantasy.

 

[HacheMan]

Time to sell high on Astros pitchers?
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Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Fantasy managers spend so much time complaining about Houston Astros pseudo-closer Ken Giles that they might be overlooking just how spectacular the team's rotation has been; it's on pace for record performance. We know Justin Verlander is simply awesome, the No. 1 pitcher on the Player Rater and someone who has reinvented himself at 35 years old, but it does not end there. Astros starting pitchers boast a 2.91 ERA, nearly half a run better than any other team. It is not just Verlander; Gerrit Cole, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. are also thriving, and the Astros boast four of the top 27 starters on the ESPN Player Rater.


Fantasy managers have become keen to this, of course, as all five Astros starters -- including disappointing lefty Dallas Keuchel -- are rostered in at least 94 percent of standard leagues, which is unprecedented as best I can tell, and since Giles has not secured the role as closer, several Astros relievers warrant interest as well. Wednesday's star was Morton, permitting an unearned run over six innings to beat the Tampa Bay Rays, while three relievers finished up. Can Morton actually win 20 games with a sub-3 ERA? Let us delve into the Astros pitchers for fantasy purposes.

While Verlander is obviously enjoying the best statistical season, Cole and Morton have him beat on xFIP, which is a statistic that analysts use to gauge what a pitcher's run prevention should be based on factors he can control. Verlander is fantastic but it seems unlikely he can keep his ERA on the good side of 2 for much longer. Cole (2.59) and Morton (2.74), however, boast numbers a bit more realistic. This does not mean Verlander is someone fantasy managers should try to trade as soon as possible, but they should have realistic expectations. Statistics do not have to normalize, but a 1.60 ERA and 0.78 WHIP is just ridiculous. Cole and Morton, by most measures, have pitched just as well, if not better.

If we were discussing Astros pitchers from a Stock Watch point of view, Verlander would fit the sell side, but he would likely be the only one. I love what Cole and Morton are doing. Cole's problem with last season's Pittsburgh Pirates was his home-run rate, but like his colleagues he has been relying a bit less on the fastball and keeping hitters off-balance with his curveball. The rise in Cole's walk rate is a tad disturbing, as he issued five free passes on Monday against the Rays, but otherwise he was dominant. The team's bullpen depth is so great -- and likely to improve with a trade, perhaps for a lefty -- that inherited runners have not been an issue. Houston's bullpen is third in ERA, but is second-to-last innings. The unit is not overachieving. Morton admits he is just trying to strike everyone out and it is working. Just, please, stay healthy.

Keuchel, scheduled to open the Friday home series with the Kansas City Royals, has become a concern for fantasy managers, as his ERA, WHIP and K rate have gone in directions we do not prefer, and do not match his level of being universally rostered. He is an Astro and won a Cy Young award, so he gets benefit of the doubt. Keuchel's most recent outing featured six innings of two-run ball against the Royals, unearned runs, and just his fourth win in 15 starts. The lefty is rostered in many leagues for someone 90th among starters on the Player Rater, worse than Derek Holland, Ryan Yarbrough and Zach Eflin. For now, keep Keuchel rostered, for even if a 3.75 ERA is what he is, he will win games. The Royals do not hit, and there is not an awesome offense on Keuchel's schedule for another month.

As for the bullpen, Giles is rostered in 71 percent of leagues, right-hander Hector Rondon is at 25 percent. Over the past 30 days, however, Giles has a 5.59 ERA and three saves. Rondon has a 0.79 ERA and four saves. I want to say Rondon deserves more fantasy attention, but I think what manager A.J. Hinch will do is continue to utilize each pitcher for ninth-inning work. I think Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock are setup men, not likely to earn save chances. It is a bit of a shame that Devenski has become a more traditional one-inning pitcher, when his past few seasons showed he is capable of so much more. Collin McHugh is one of the more valuable long relievers, with a big K rate and a realistic chance to win games, though it has not happened so far.

One more name to watch among Astros arms is 20-year-old right-hander Forrest Whitley, a large 6-7, 240-pound man with major strikeout potential. He served a 50-game suspension for violating the minor league drug program, and he has made three starts for Triple-A Corpus Christi so far, each a four-inning shutout stint. He has allowed five hits and three walks, with 18 strikeouts. Whitley might not become a great fantasy option this season, but a promotion in August seems imminent, and the innings should be good. He is a future star for dynasty formats. The Astros and Colorado Rockies have somehow managed to need only the minimum five starters all season, but those streaks are going to end. Whitley could be the AL version of Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler.

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Wednesday recap

Box scores

Highlights:

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• Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros: 3-for-4, 2 HR
  
  
• Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Cleveland Indians: 3-for-4, HR, 3 RBI, SB
  
  
• Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: 2-for-3 , 2 HR, 3 RBI
  
  
• Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
  
  
• Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
  
  

Lowlights:

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• Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays: 0-for-4, 3 K
  
  
• J.T. Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins: 1-for-5, 2 K
  
  
• Chad Bettis, SP, Colorado Rockies: 4 2/3 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
  
  
• Joey Lucchesi, SP, San Diego Padres: 1 2/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
  
  
• Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Chicago White Sox: 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K

Wednesday takeaways:

<strike></strike> The Philadelphia Phillies have managed to stay above .500 despite a rough bullpen and defense thanks to the hitting exploits of Odubel Herrera and Rhys Hoskins. Herrera was in a brutal slump, hitting .155 over a 21-game stretch with three walks and 26 strikeouts, but he adjusted his leg kick and his patience level and looks like a different player. Herrera is not likely to draw a ton of walks, but he knows strikes from balls, and which pitches he can drive. The big problem with his fantasy value are the lack of stolen bases, but he is closing in on a career high for power and has been a consistent batting average provider, even if he is inconsistent along the way, driving head-to-head managers mad.

• Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Ross Stripling saw his streak of consecutive victories stopped by the Cubs, but it was another strong outing. Stripling is the No. 1 pitcher on the Player Rater for the past 30 days, and has struck out six or more hitters in eight consecutive starts, which is incredible. It all looks legit to me. If the Stripling manager in your league thinks Wednesday's loss -- still a quality start -- is a harbinger of struggles, go get him. Stripling has become a top-40 starting pitcher.

• Cubs infielder Javier Baez hit two doubles and a triple and stole a base in the 4-0 win. Baez is hitting .266 despite a 4.1 percent walk rate, but for him this works. He is aggressive, and clearly not bothered much by his plunking by a pitch on the elbow a few days ago. Mookie Betts is the only player in baseball with more home runs and steals than Baez. He is emerging as a top-30 fantasy option. Now, if only we could get Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo going.

• Padres rookie lefty Joey Lucchesi did not fare well in his first outing off the DL for a hip strain, and he is scheduled to make two starts next week. Should fantasy managers depend on a 25-year-old who skipped Triple-A? Lucchesi is a rather soft-tossing lefty who did miss bats the first two months, but probably relied on his ballpark for his surprising numbers. I am going to pass.

Injuries of note:

• San Francisco Giants infielder Alen Hanson suffered a left knee contusion and might need a day or two off, which is a shame because he looks like a dynamic offensive player, much to our surprise. Hanson has the chance to play a lot at third base if he is healthy and he hits. He is hitting .314 with pop.

• Occasional Dodgers leadoff man Chris Taylor left Wednesday's game with a hamstring injury, but claims he will play this weekend against the Mets. Taylor has not followed up his breakout 2017 with similar success, but scores a lot of runs and offers middle infield eligibility.

Closing time:

• Just mere hours after Sam Dyson was anointed San Francisco Giants closer, he nearly coughed up a ninth-inning lead and had to be rescued by Reyes Moronta, who earned his first save. There was again no sign of Mark Melancon. Tony Watson pitched the seventh inning. I think Dyson is still the closer, despite the rough outing that featured four walks and only two outs, and Watson is going to share opportunities. I think Melancon has to come into play soon. I think I would cut Hunter Strickland, who might not get the closing role back when healthy.

<strike></strike> Brandon Morrow hit the DL with a back injury suffered by taking his pants off. I will reserve further comment on that one, but this should not be a long DL stint. Carl Edwards Jr. would close if healthy, but he is not. Pedro Strop should get more save chances than Steve Cishek in the interim. Be careful out there, folks, even with daily tasks.

W2W4:

• St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Carlos Martinez has walked 18 hitters in three outings since coming off the DL, and his fastball velocity is down. Martinez had a lat injury, not a malady directly related to his elbow or shoulder, so this is odd, and many eyes will be on him against the Brewers on Thursday. One assumes Martinez will find his control and return to top-20 starter status.

• The slumping Nationals offense gets to see Baltimore Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman in a beltway battle. Gausman, quite infuriatingly, has permitted 95 hits in 82 1/3 innings. He is so much better than that, but alas, inconsistency is a theme with him. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy have combined for 11 hits in 88 at-bats this month. You cannot give up on these guys, but it would be nice to see some good swings against Gausman.<strike></strike>
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[HacheMan]

Eloy Jimenez is getting close
Tommy Rancel
ESPN INSIDER

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still several weeks away from returning from a knee injury, there is a void atop Mount Prospect. Nick Senzel is ranked No. 1 on my list due to proximity and his expected ability to hit right away. That said, Senzel is a very good prospect; a future all-star, but probably not a superstar.

To find that supernova potential you have to look a little further down the list. This is where you will find Eloy Jimenez, a Chicago White Sox prospect currently in Triple-A Charlotte. Signed as a highly touted international free agent in 2013, the Chicago Cubs gave Jimenez nearly $3 million as a teenager from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>The initial return on investment was not great. Jimenez struggled in his first professional season and was sidelined by injury. He was marginally better in his second year, but a far cry from justifying the large pile of money he received. This is where the minor leagues get tricky. Despite the underwhelming results, Jimenez still flashed the tools that made him a bonus baby.

It was not until 2016 that Jimenez really started to put it all together. Receiving a promotion to low-A South Bend in the Midwest League, he hit .329 with a .901 OPS. Jimenez has many tools, but his power stands above all. That season he tallied 57 extra-base hits. He also garnered national attention for his performance in the Futures Game during the All-Star break.

Jimenez starred in San Diego, the site of the 2016 mid-summer classic. He made an amazing catch in right field, ranging all the way to his left in foul territory before extending his long left arm into the stands and snagging an out while crashing into the low wall at his waist. He laced an RBI double down the left-field line and later pulled a monster home run to cap his impressive day.

Entering 2017, Jimenez climbed up the prospect ranks. He began the season at No. 12 on Keith Law's top-100 list. His performance thereafter did not disappoint. The Cubs bumped him up to high-A Myrtle Beach to start the year; however, it was a trade with the crosstown White Sox that really got his bat going. Jimenez was part of the package sent by the Cubs to Chicago's other team in exchange for Jose Quintana.

Initially, the White Sox sent Jimenez to their equivalent affiliate in the Carolina League. He tore the cover off the ball, hitting .345/.410/.682 with 20 extra-base hits in just 110 at-bats. He finished the season with Double-A Birmingham. There he hit .353 with a .956 OPS.

<strike></strike>Jimenez opened 2018 firmly entrenched in the top-10 of nearly every prospect list. He returned to Birmingham, where he continued to do what he does best: hit. A member of the weekly top-10 list, he smacked Southern League pitching to the tune of a .317 average with a .556 slugging percentage. He smashed 10 home runs and registered 15 doubles before he was finally promoted to Triple-A Charlotte last week. He wasted no time showing his power as he belted his first home run for the Knights on Sunday.

The promotion to Triple-A was a formality more than a necessity. Jimenez will not improve much from his time with Charlotte, but he will see some higher quality pitching and go against hurlers with big league experience. A strong showing there will likely get him called up before the end of the season.

I don't want to get hyperbolic or set unreasonable expectations. Meanwhile, the raw power is on the scale of Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, etc. He is a better overall hitter than Gallo, although he probably won't walk as much as Judge. Even if Jimenez struggles initially getting his long limbs adjusted to the majors -- remember Judge in 2016 -- most believe he will hit and hit hard. In redraft formats you can wait until he starts mashing the International League before pondering adding him, but be aware starting now. At the same time, he is a must have in any multi-year league.<strike></strike>
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[HacheMan]

The 'other Yankees' to add in fantasy baseball
​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

It is not easy finding relevant New York Yankees hitters sitting on free agency in most fantasy leagues, but there are a few options out there, and one of them smacked three home runs on Sunday Night Baseball against the Boston Red Sox. Yes, Aaron Hicks sees occasional time leading off for the Bronx Bombers. While everyone except LeBron James watched late on Sunday, he reminded fantasy managers that a decent player lurks, one who is the No. 33 outfielder on the ESPN Player Rater for the season, and seventh for the past 30 days. As of Monday morning, Hicks remains available in just more than half of ESPN's standard leagues.


Of course, it will not be long until that number climbs well past 50 percent because Hicks not only started July off with a monster game, but he was solid in June as well. In fact, over the past 30 days, it is Hicks and not Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton or Gleyber Torres leading the Yankees in home runs, and Hicks also leads the club with 18 runs scored in that span. No Yankees hitter ranks better over that span. An injury to fellow outfielder Brett Gardner contributed to Hicks seeing more time at the top of the lineup, and in this lineup, that is a good thing. Then again, Hicks showed himself to be a useful fantasy option last season as well, for at least the time he was on the field.

Hicks and Gardner were the lone Yankees last season to accumulate double digits in both home runs and stolen bases, but everyone knows about Gardner, now 33. It took him 151 games to get those numbers. Hicks hit his 15 home runs and stole 10 bases over 88 games and 361 plate appearances, so if he could simply stay on the field more, those could become very relevant numbers, not just intriguing ones. Alas, Hicks does not offer great durability, but he has been a productive player when healthy, and when paired with other free-agent additions to fantasy rosters, one might not care so much. After all, Hicks finished as fantasy's No. 79 outfielder in barely half a season of playing time, and one could easily find short-term power and speed on free agency to replace a potentially injured Hicks.

Beleaguered lefty David Price was no match for New York's powerful lineup on Sunday -- Price is no Chris Sale, after all -- and Hicks, who did his best offensive work last season against left-handed pitching, was on his way to a career night, taking Price deep to right field and center field in the first four innings. The final home run came off right-hander Hector Velazquez. While Hicks has hit a solid .291 with 9 home runs and 18 runs over the past 30 days, Gardner has fought through a sore knee and been unproductive, with a .243 mark. Hicks is the better choice to spark the lineup until something changes with injury or performance. We all wish our players could be consistent and healthy for six months, but few can achieve such lofty goals. Enjoy Hicks while this lasts.

The other available Yankees batsman -- seven Yankees hitters are rostered in more than 66 percent of leagues! -- to keep an eye on is first baseman Greg Bird, though he has not given much reason in the past few weeks. Bird's power is legitimate and the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium is perfect for him. A struggle to make contact tends to be the main reason for low batting averages, or failure to adapt to extreme shifting, but Bird is not striking out 30 percent of the time. He draws walks. Hitting left-handed pitching is a problem and Brandon Drury figures to help him with those plate appearances, but I do expect Bird to improve quickly. There is a 30-homer option lurking, should he manage to stay healthy.

Hicks and Bird might not be as popular as all those other Yankees hitting options, but they do matter.

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Sunday recap

Box scores

Highlights:

• Aaron Hicks, OF, New York Yankees: 3-for-4, 3 HR, 4 RBI• Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI• Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-for-4, HR, 4 RBI• James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 11 K• Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: 7 1/3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 10 KLowlights:

• Andrew McCutchen, OF, San Francisco Giants: 0-for-6, 3 K• Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Detroit Tigers: 0-for-5, 3 K• David Price, SP, Boston Red Sox: 3 1/3 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 0 BB, 3 K• Cole Hamels, SP, Texas Rangers: 5 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 7 K• Zack Godley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 4 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 5 K

Sunday takeaways:

<strike></strike>• Price was not right against the Yankees, and perhaps that is understandable considering the lineup's depth of power and gaudy .825 OPS against left-handed pitching, best in baseball. The Yankees have hit 44 home runs off lefties this season, best in the sport, despite ranking 19th in at-bats against lefties. In other words, it is not just Price; try to avoid starting lefties not named Chris Sale or James Paxton -- wow, that could be the wild-card game matchup! -- against this crew. As for Price, I am not a fan, and his fantasy value should bounce back with scheduled outings before the All-Star break versus the lowly Kansas City Royals and average Toronto Blue Jays, so get ready to trade him. Yes, Price boasted a reasonable 3.66 ERA and strong K rate entering the weekend, but with his odd elbow and hand woes in the past season, he seems hard to trust for more than 25 starts.

• Other American League lefties facing far lesser lineups also struggled on Sunday, and Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ might not be coveted fantasy options, but they are likely to be traded in real life. Each permitted seven runs on Sunday. Hamels has concerned me for a while; last season his K rate plummeted and he seemed fortunate to escape with a 4.20 ERA. This season he is among the leaders in home runs allowed and his 4.05 ERA again seems a mirage. With nearly 2,500 career innings, I am scared to invest, even if he leaves a bad Rangers team for a contender. Happ is the better pitcher this season, easily, and Sunday was his first rough outing in a month. His walk rate is low and he was top 10 in WHIP entering Sunday. Now is the time to invest in Happ.

• Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman was the top player in fantasy for the past week, hitting five home runs, knocking in 10 and stealing a pair of bases as well. He is on pace for 30 home runs, 100 RBI and 15 stolen bases, and is a true five-category option worthy of top-20 overall relevance. Would you take Bregman or Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper? It might seem wild, but Bregman is doing everything. Harper is hitting for power and that is it. The batting average is terrible and while it should improve, Harper has not been the most consistent or durable player. Yep, I am taking Bregman now and for dynasty purposes, I would do so over any of his Astros teammates as well. Second baseman Jose Altuve is older and not likely to hit 30 home runs and shortstop Carlos Correa is on the DL and not a stolen base threat.

• The Colorado Rockies demoted right-hander Jon Gray to Triple-A Albuquerque on Saturday, which seems odd because his 119 big league strikeouts rank 12th. Pitching in the Albuquerque environment is not going to be any easier than in Denver, but then again, Gray's problem was not his home ballpark. His road ERA was worse than his home ERA, and for the second consecutive season. Gray is odd; he is not walking hitters, not allowing home runs. He is simply getting hit hard. I cannot say I was a fan of his value this season and I did avoid him everywhere, but this is a little extreme. Strikeout options like this tend to figure things out. It is absolutely the right time to go get Gray and he should be back in the majors and dominating later this month.

Injuries of note:• Detroit Tigers right-hander Shane Greene and his 19 saves are headed to the DL for a shoulder strain, and setup man Joe Jimenez takes over. Jimenez has clearly enjoyed the better statistical season and for those thinking this bad team cannot generate saves, think again. Greene is tied for 10th in saves. Jimenez becomes a smart addition to any fantasy roster and we should not presume Greene is either back pitching soon or retains the role.

•Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez took an Adam Eaton line drive off his pitching forearm Saturday, then famously threw Eaton out at first base with his left hand, before falling to the ground in pain. Velasquez was placed on the DL Sunday but does not expect to miss much time. Velasquez is a bit like Colorado's Gray, for a huge strikeout rate comes with an inflated and annoying ERA. Some expected Velasquez to be Philadelphia's closer by this point, and yes, by next spring it remains possible. The point is, if you roster Velasquez in a deeper format, keep him around.

Closing time:

• Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Ryan Tepera hit the DL this past weekend with elbow inflammation, ceding the closer role to experienced Tyler Clippard, who becomes a short-term pick-up. The Blue Jays expect to have original closer Roberto Osuna back the first week of August, so Clippard's window for saves is July.

• The Atlanta Braves swept a weekend series in St. Louis with right-hander Dan Winkler and lefty A.J. Minter each earning saves, but injured right-hander Arodys Vizcaino should return to closing duties on Monday. Vizcaino might not get every last save for this first-place team, but he seems on his way to 30.

W2W4:

The Nationals scored 17 runs in their lone victory at Philadelphia this weekend, over four games, and that was against a struggling starter and bad relievers. The Nationals have scored four or more runs in two of their past 11 contests. So it is that Boston right-hander Rick Porcello is a good option at Washington on Monday, even against Max Scherzer, who is winless in his past four appearances. The Nationals' lineup keeps juggling, but it has not helped Harper or Daniel Murphy.

• Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Nick Kingham returns from the minors to face Alex Wood and the Dodgers. Kingham famously held the Cardinals hitless through six innings in his debut, was merely average statistically in five big league starts since, so fantasy managers should not overrate him. Facing a lefty should earn Pirates outfielder Starling Marte the start after a few recent benchings, but he has really struggled in the past four weeks, hitting .198, albeit with eight stolen bases. Now seems like a wise time to acquire Marte.

​

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[HacheMan]

Who will be the next player to join the 30-30 club?
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Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

The last time anyone hit 30 home runs and stole 30 bases in the same season was in 2012, when Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun achieved the feat. Nobody has reached such status since. Trout missed by one home run back in 2016, while Wil Myers had a 28/28 campaign. Nobody came too close last season, as Jose Altuve needed six home runs to do it and Trout fell eight steals short, but then again, a mere six players managed to steal 30 bases. Hey, this is not simple to do, no matter how easy the likes of Barry Bonds, Alfonso Soriano and Howard Johnson made it look back in the day.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, despite his powerful heroics in Thursday's comeback win over the Miami Marlins, does not figure to reach 30 home runs anytime soon. I thought about it, though. Perhaps if he faced Miami pitching on a regular basis, this could change, but for now, we should be pleased if he reaches 20 home runs. Turner steals bases and remains a top-10 fantasy option. The problem for those looking for 30/30 options is not enough players try to steal buckets of bases, and the big power hitters, well, they are paid to provide power. Trout and Myers were the only ones of the 41 players that hit 30 or more home runs last season to steal as many as 20 bases.

So, whom can we root for this season to approach 30/30, other than the annual pursuit by Mr. Trout? Well, here are five other names to watch, and unless the schedule suddenly changes for Turner's Nationals, and they face a lot more of Miami, I will leave him out. Still, we thank Turner -- and Miami pitching -- for the pair of blasts and eight runs batted in from Thursday's crazy game!


Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B, Cleveland Indians: Still think last season's power emergence was unsustainable? Me neither. Ramirez has 24 home runs already, two off the J.D. Martinez league-leading pace. Ramirez has already tied last season's mark of 17 steals, and the best sign is that nine of them have come in the past 15 games, so that is a good trend. Clearly, Ramirez can get to 30 steals if he desires. Yes, we desire.

Mookie Betts, OF, Boston Red Sox: Much like Ramirez, Betts has more walks than strikeouts and should sail past 30 home runs. He is stealing bases at a great percentage and, like Ramirez has yet to reach 30 in a season, though he got to 26 twice. Betts stole 10 bases in May, but has only two since. That does not seem like a good sign, but we know he can have a big month. One can easily argue that Ramirez is more valuable than Betts, though I cannot admit I have heard that case made. Ramirez, Betts and Trout are 1-2-3 on the current Player Rater among hitters.

Javier Baez, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs: This guy is so much fun to watch! Baez enters the weekend with 16 home runs, 15 steals and 12 walks, a combination that might seem unheard of, but then again, Soriano walked only 23 times for the 2002 New York Yankees, with 39 homers and 41 steals. It can happen! Baez is a potential MVP candidate in the wide-open National League, and this 12th-round pick in ESPN ADP is in the reasonable running for fantasy MVP honors as well, as he is No. 11 on the Rater for the season. It looks like he can achieve whatever he wants to.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox: How about a pair of teammates achieving the feat together? It happened on the 1987 New York Mets with Howard Johnson and Darryl Strawberry, and Colorado Rockies outfielders Dante Bichette and Ellis Burks carried fantasy managers in 1996 as well, though with a lot more batting average. Benintendi achieved 20/20 status as a rookie. I did not think his power would develop so quickly, but he hits the weekend with 13 homers and 16 steals. I would be surprised if he reaches 30 homers this soon, but he has become a top-10 fantasy outfielder.

<strike></strike>Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox: Surprise! A hitter of 17 blasts last season with 15 steals, Anderson is far more likely to reach 30 steals than homers. His brutal plate discipline has improved some from last season, but after smacking seven home runs in May to get to 11 on the season, he has hit a mere two since. On Thursday, he batted ninth as a starter for the first time this season, which seems odd considering the fellows that hit ahead of him. He registered his 20th stolen base. Anderson probably will not approach 30 home runs, but who expected a potential 25/35 season? That will work for us!

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[h=2]Thursday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 8 RBI

Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Baltimore Orioles: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI

Jedd Gyorko, 2B/3B, St. Louis Cardinals: 3-for-4, HR, 5 RBI

Luke Weaver, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: 8 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: 0-for-5, K

Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers: 0-for-4, K

Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Washington Nationals: 4 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Max Fried, SP, Atlanta Braves: 3 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K

Johnny Cueto, SP, San Francisco Giants: 5 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Thursday takeaways:

<strike></strike>Diaz is on pace for 63 saves, which would actually break the Francisco Rodriguez record of 62 from the 2008 season, but fantasy is a game about value and I maintain that it is always wise to consider trading the top closers for lesser ones plus a bat or starter. These 34 saves might seem predictive for the final three months, but they are not. Seattle is not likely to win at quite this pace and the team's mark in one-run games, though Thursday was not that close, is astounding. One could argue that if the Mariners keep winning and a playoff berth seems almost assured come the first of September, Diaz will be handled carefully the final month. Diaz might not even have the most saves from here on out. Seems to me that getting Atlanta's Arodys Vizcaino or Cleveland's Cody Allen plus a top-50 bat is the right move.

• What the Nationals achieved on Thursday was fascinating, especially when the trio of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Daniel Murphy was 0-for-11, albeit with three walks. Imagine when all the Nationals are healthy and hitting! I cannot admit I would trade for Harper or Murphy based on their preseason value, however. Too much risk for Harper not getting his batting average up -- or stealing bases -- and with Murphy, he is hitting on one leg. Perhaps he can hit .300 with 10 homers in three months on the good leg, but he is a risk. The Nats welcomed back Matt Adams from the DL and he delivered four hits. Still no sign of Ryan Zimmerman returning, and perhaps that is not a big deal.

• Cueto's return from the DL did not go so well, as Gyorko smacked a three-run homer in the first inning, but even after that, there was constant turmoil on the bases. Cueto threw strikes, so his command looked good, but perhaps too many strikes. The fastball velocity was down from earlier this season, and I maintain the biggest concern with Cueto is not performance, but health. I would be very careful in trading for him.

Injuries of note:

• Seattle Mariners catcher Mike Zunino hurt his ankle on Wednesday and not surprisingly, by Thursday afternoon he was on the disabled list. Zunino's power is legit; this is actually the fifth consecutive season he has reached double-digit home runs, which might seem like no big deal, but it is for this position. Sure, Zunino's batting average is a drag, as he hit .167 in June and his career mark is .207, but we desire the power. Look for it back in the lineup by the end of the month and go add Robinson Chirinos, John Hicks or Tucker Barnhart.

• Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jarrod Dyson strained a groin Wednesday and again, not surprisingly, by dinner the next day he was on the 10-day DL as well. Dyson might seem irrelevant for fantasy, hitting the exact same .189 mark that Zunino is but sans a lick of power, but his 16 stolen bases are among the big league leaders. Those in NL-only formats will miss those. Steven Souza Jr. came off the DL and started Thursday, so Dyson's playing time was in jeopardy anyway.

Closing time:

• Minnesota Twins veteran Fernando Rodney got back on track with an easy ninth inning against the Orioles, saving his 18th game in 23 chances. OK, so he is not perfect, but of the 12 pitchers with more saves than his 18, nearly half boast a higher ERA. Rodney really is not so bad, he types to an audience that does not wish to read it. As for situations to watch this weekend, I would go with the Giants first, and keep a small eye on the White Sox and Royals. The Giants could opt for any of three or four pitchers to get the save chance, though I think it is a Sam Dyson/Will Smith combination most likely. Chicago's Joakim Soria blew the save Thursday, but I doubt he lost the job that quickly. The Royals, like the Orioles, rarely win, but let us see what Wily Peralta can keep doing.

W2W4:

<strike></strike>The rest of the Braves-Brewers series figures to be interesting as these surprising first-place teams throw emerging right-handers Mike Foltynewicz and Freddy Peralta on Friday, underrated Anibal Sanchez and Brent Suter on Saturday, and Sunday it should be Sean Newcomb and Junior Guerra. It is safe to say none of these six pitchers deserved mixed league consideration back in March, but how things have changed. Foltynewicz trails only Jacob deGrom and Luis Severino with his 2.02 ERA. Watch Guerra, for after a rough 2017 season he looks as good as he did in 2016, this time with more strikeouts than innings. Jimmy Nelson probably does not return to the mound this month, but eventually he has to replace someone.

• The Chicago Cubs claim that third baseman Kris Bryant will test his ailing left shoulder on Friday, and if all goes well, he could play in the afternoon against the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds actually bring a hot rotation into Wrigley Field, as right-handers Tyler Mahle, Matt Harvey (yep, it surprised me as well) and disappointing Luis Castillo have piqued the interest of fantasy managers of late. As for Bryant, who homered once in June and remains in single digits for the season, fantasy managers could use him back to productivity ASAP.<strike></strike>
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[HacheMan]

Sorting out the top fantasy All-Star snubs

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Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Chris Archer

has a point, you know. The ​

Tampa Bay Rays

hurler seemed to be the loudest of those complaining on Twitter that his teammate ​

Blake Snell

unceremoniously was missing from the American League All-Star team, though the fact remains there are obvious reasons why this occurred and Snell is likely to end up getting a nod anyway. The point is that as of today Snell leads the AL in ERA and other stuff and is not officially on the All-Star team. Fantasy managers, of course, realize how great Snell is; he enters Monday as the No. 14 option on the season-long Player Rater, though there is someone even more snubbed than he is!


Look, take the All-Star Game and its silly process for choosing the participants for what it is, but from a pure statistical standpoint, we know who the great fantasy options are, and many are better than the myriad players actually chosen as All-Stars. The process is a big problem but there are bigger concerns in today's world, methinks. I cannot say with certainty that, as a child and a Philadelphia Phillies fan, I expressly looked forward to the All-Star Game simply to see my team's one shining All-Star, because I would have watched anyway whether the likes of Shane Rawley, Ozzie Virgil and Steve Bedrosian were selected or not. I presume Detroit Tigers fans would watch even if Joe Jimenez were not an All-Star.

Regardless, on this angry Monday when nobody wants to discuss how and why Jimenez is somehow an All-Star -- it's pretty obvious -- this gives us an opportunity for compact thoughts on the missing. Here are all the All-Star snubs from the top 50 of the current Player Rater, fully knowing that the "final vote" process will yield a few more options, and injuries, apathy and Sunday's starters will allow for even more.

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox (No. 13 on the Rater): On pace for 25 homers, 28 steals, 116 runs scored and a special place in our collective hearts, Benintendi might move into the top 20 for 2019 drafts. No, I am serious. I have written before that I did not expect quite so much power so soon, but this is a monster fantasy option.

Blake Snell, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (No. 14): Snell's past four outings have yielded 28⅔ innings, with two earned runs and 35 strikeouts. Hey, that is truly awesome and it got me wondering about other wild lefties with major strikeout stuff that simply need better control. Snell entered the season with a career 1.44 WHIP through 43 starts, thanks to the many walks. Snell is still fourth among lefties in free passes, but has become unhittable, thus this great WHIP. I cannot quit the likes of Sean Newcomb and Danny Duffy because the upside is obvious.

Jean Segura, SS, Seattle Mariners (No. 16): The AL has more than a few decent shortstops. I remember investing in Segura as a Brewer and wondering if he would stick as a starter. He is hitting .330 and more shockingly, ranks sixth among active players in batting average since the start of 2016.

Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals (No. 21): Totally worth the first-round investment as he is on pace for 20 homers and 40 steals. Stop complaining about him.

Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota Twins (No. 31): A legit power hitter who makes contact and has become serviceable versus left-handed pitching, Rosario was a 13th-rounder in ESPN ADP. Next season, how about the fifth round?

Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates (No. 32): It was easier to get a Pirates reliever on the squad than this top-10 outfielder, who fell out of favor with last year's half-season suspension but is again proving it is not all about the steals, though they are nice.

Charlie Morton, SP (No. 33): Hard to find a comp to what he has changed in the past two seasons. I never would have guessed this fellow would throw this hard and accrue this many strikeouts. Durability is the lone question mark now.

Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox (No. 38): He remains allergic to drawing walks, but we do not care as long as this potential 25-homer, 40-steal option remains productive.

Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers (No. 40): He leads baseball with 19 home runs since May 18. Now yes, that is an arbitrary date, but I use it to remind fantasy managers that some of the best players really are free agents seven weeks into a season, and then they are simply awesome. Aguilar seemed buried on the depth chart because he was, and then opportunity arose and he ran, um slugged, with it. Aguilar is going to hit 40 blasts. Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy is not among the top 50 as of today -- he is No. 114, with a low RBI total compared to Aguilar, at least -- and yes, I would choose Aguilar over him, but each has had profound impact in the fantasy world.

Ender Inciarte, OF, Atlanta Braves (No. 47): Aiding us in stolen bases and runs scored, this is what we hoped Billy Hamilton would do. He is not doing this, though he is fun to watch.

Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston Astros (No. 49): Only so many Astros can fit on this team but as with Morton, it comes down to staying healthy. We know McCullers has the ability. The most amazing stat for Houston might be the team has still needed only five starting pitchers all season.

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[h=2]Sunday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Jesus Aguilar, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, San Francisco Giants: 3-for-5, HR, 5 RBI

• Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays: 2-for-3, HR, 3 R

• Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

• Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels: 7 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

• Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals: 0-for-5, 4 K

• Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks: 0-for-7, 4 K

• Tanner Roark, SP, Washington Nationals: 4 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

• Sean Newcomb, SP, Atlanta Braves: 3 2/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

• Greg Holland, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: 2/3 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Weekend takeaways:

​

After hitting 3 HR yesterday, Wil Myers hits his 2nd career go-ahead HR in extra innings. The @Padres currently lead the Diamondbacks 4-3 in the bottom of the 16th inning
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 9, 2018


​

• Saturday was a big day for several hitters, including Myers, who not only smacked a trio of solo home runs, but became the first person to do so in a game his team lost by double-digits in the modern era. OK, so the Padres as an offense are not great, but Myers can overcome this! On Sunday, Myers hit his game-winning home run off a backup catcher, but it counts all the same. Myers is the No. 2 player in fantasy over the past seven days, as in addition to the four home runs this past weekend he stole two bases on Sunday. He remains available in more than 20 percent of ESPN standard leagues, despite looking every bit like the 25/25 option from recent seasons. Invest.

• The top player of the past week is actually available in more than 91 percent of leagues! It was quite an interesting weekend for Washington Nationals first baseman Mark Reynolds. He smacked the walk-off home run on Friday against the Marlins. On Saturday, he homered twice among five hits and batted in 10 runs, after entering the proceedings with 14 RBIs in 36 games. On Sunday, Reynolds had a few hits and then pitched in the ninth inning of the blowout loss. No player has had a weekend like this. Regardless, I have been saying for a while that what Reynolds achieved with last season's Colorado Rockies (.267, 30 HR) was legit, and he would be better than an injured Ryan Zimmerman. We still do not know when Zimmerman is returning. This is why Reynolds is so available. So many of us missed on a big statistical weekend.

• The Nationals scored 18 runs in the middle Reynolds game but the Diamondbacks topped that with 20 against the San Diego Padres. Lefty Robbie Ray had a 15-4 lead entering the fifth inning ... and could not finish the inning, and thus wasn't eligible for the win. Oh boy. Ray tossed 96 pitches in his 4⅓ innings, with four walks and seven strikeouts. It is hard to keep a low pitch count with so many walks and whiffs. Ray has monster strikeout upside, but he still does not look right even after coming off the DL stint. The right move is to buy low, but I got a trade offer today that treated him like a top-20 starter, and I think I want to move him. We are in July. There is ample hope Ray stars in the final 10 weeks ... but risk as well.

• The Houston Astros made news by promoting outfielder Kyle Tucker to the majors, and he had a hit in seven at-bats over the weekend. Tucker had 14 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 80 games at Triple-A Fresno, and looks a potential five-category star. He is already the No. 2 most added outfielder in ESPN standard leagues, and I wholeheartedly agree he deserves the attention in case he hits like we think he will. Go get him.

Injuries of note:

• Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig smacked a three-run home run on Sunday Night Baseball and in his next at-bat, strained his oblique. We might not see Puig again until August, which is a real shame because he can be a top-20 outfielder if he wants to be. He certainly has been in the past. The Dodgers could re-promote Alex Verdugo, and even showcase him for a trade, but for fantasy, I just do not see much power there.

Closing time:

• New York Yankees lefty Aroldis Chapman was removed from his Saturday outing with a sore knee, and bypassed for the Sunday save for David Robertson. The injury seems minor, but the Yankees could easily stick Chapman on the DL for the week, since he would get extra time off next week with the All-Star break. Robertson and Dellin Betances are next in line, but I would add Robertson first.

• Maybe it is nothing, but Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has used right-hander Victor Arano for saves in his past two appearances, once with Seranthony Dominguez unavailable, and on Saturday after Dominguez hurled an effective eighth inning against the heart of the Pittsburgh lineup. This could continue. Those seeking every last save should add Arano as he could pick up the saves Dominguez does not, and this is, after all, a first-place team.

W2W4:

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Angry Archer returns for the Rays after an abdominal strain cost him a month. While Archer investors whine about his stats and missing time, the strikeouts are still there and he remains someone to target. Be careful about Monday, though, as he most likely will not surpass 75 pitches, by design.

• San Francisco Giants lefty Andrew Suarez makes for a fine streamer at home against the Kris Bryant-less Chicago Cubs, though the third baseman could be activated for the contest. Suarez has permitted one earned run in each of his past three outings, and he was not lit up prior to that, either. He is considerably safer for home games, and has another one on the schedule for the weekend.

​

 

[HacheMan]

Making sense of the San Francisco bullpen

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Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

• print

If you are looking for a big league bullpen with experienced closers, check out the San Francisco Giants. Right-handers Mark Melancon and Sam Dyson and lefty Tony Watson boast 267 career saves between them, while Hunter Strickland, currently on the disabled list due to his own anger, closed competently earlier this season.

Meanwhile, left-hander Will Smith entered 2018 with one career save, missed all of 2017 after Tommy John surgery and debuted this season on May 2. So who is the Giants closer leading into the All-Star break? If you guessed it is Will Smith, you win a prize and no, I am not going to tell you anyone saw this coming. It is, just, baseball.


Smith's ascension to the ninth-inning role is a stark reminder to the dismissive that previous experience is not a prerequisite for closing success. Smith has certainly been a decent relief pitcher in the past, and for those in the fantasy world seeking holds, he was one of the better options with the 2014-15 Milwaukee Brewers. He seemed primed to close in 2016, but right-hander Jeremy Jeffress handled the role until Tyler Thornburg took over. A trade made Smith a member of the contending Giants on deadline day and he resumed his effective setup role for right-hander Santiago Casilla thereafter.

The Giants have three saves in the past two weeks and Smith has them all, although fantasy managers seem to be a bit slow in realizing this. Sure, it is wholly possible that Dyson, Watson or Melancon earns the next save chance, and that is the order of likelihood that I would place on each pitcher doing so, but Smith is the guy for now. Strickland is not going to pitch again this month, and when he returns, who knows how he slots in. He was not exactly Kenley Jansen while he was closing. Smith, however, has been dominant in the past month, earning the right for a more leveraged role.

Fantasy managers should be more interested and Smith is the most-added reliever over the past week, but he remains available in 85 percent of standard leagues, despite a 1.03 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He has really thrived since June began. Over the past 30 days, Smith is second among all relief pitchers -- to Texas Rangers right-hander Jose LeClerc, of all people -- with 16.68 strikeouts per nine innings. Smith has permitted one run over 14 1/3 innings since June 1, with 25 strikeouts. He has outperformed Milwaukee's Josh Hader in that span quite easily.

I think Smith is going to keep the closing role for as long as he is effective, which sounds like a weak prediction, but I still expect Dyson to be in play at some point against slugging right-handed batters. Dyson has rebounded from last season, and while he is hardly piling on the strikeouts, he is still doing better in that department than Melancon, who has not earned a late-inning role, despite his vast experience and lofty paycheck. Melancon signed a four-year, $62 million contract heading into 2017, and he has thrown 43 mainly rough innings for the Giants. One would presume if he raises his performance, he will earn a greater role based on the money, but it certainly does not appear imminent.

Smith is not your normal left-handed relief pitcher, as he has always had the ability to retire right-handed batters, but we often see managers simply dismiss pitchers for less. After all, we can normally count the number of lefty closers from year to year on one hand. Currently we have Smith, Baltimore's Zach Britton, the Yankees' Aroldis Chapman, Pittsburgh's Felipe Vazquez, San Diego's Brad Hand and Washington's Sean Doolittle. Smith has relatively even career splits against hitters, and this season right-handers have four hits in 45 at-bats. That .089 batting average is not likely to continue, but then again, nobody is promising you it will or that Smith will save 15 more games. He could, though.

So keep doing what you are doing, Will Smith, and the Giants and fantasy managers will love you for it. Oh, and happy birthday, by the way. Smith turned 29 on Tuesday.

Other reliever thoughts

-- So, what is going on with Rangers lefty LeClerc? Right-hander Keone Kela is the undisputed closer, and while it is possible this last-place team trades him -- they should, really -- I have not heard such rumors. LeClerc, like Smith, has yet to allow a home run this season, which is likely to change soon. LeClerc got my attention on Sunday when he struck out five Tigers for all his outs. He is a walker, but if Kela is hurt or traded, he has a chance at saves.

-- Hader, meanwhile, somehow allowed a pair of Miami Marlins home runs in Monday's loss, and his investors have to be wondering if the outing is a harbinger of bad tidings. Hader is not pitching poorly, but to me he is not pitching enough. Perhaps that is by design. The Brewers have a healthy Corey Knebel and Jeffress, after all. Hader could be tired. He has pitched twice in 12 days. I would not send him to free agency yet, but be on the watch.

-- Lefty strikeout contemporary Andrew Miller could return to the Cleveland Indians right after the All-Star break, and with it could come many strikeouts. After all, Miller led all relievers in strikeouts over 2016-17 and had a 1.45 ERA in that span. He can be great, but knee woes have hampered him. One would presume the Indians will be extra cautious here, as the division title is imminent. Fantasy managers should be as well.

<strike></strike>-- More Astros saves the rest of the season? I think Hector Rondon will get eight saves, and Ken Giles will get seven. That is not a lot of saves, but when Houston wins, they tend to win by more than a few runs. The Astros as a team are tied for 17th in saves with 23 of them over 15 weeks, and they are tied for 22nd in save chances. Sorry if you expected more.

-- Has anyone noticed that Arizona's Archie Bradley already boasts 23 holds? Last year's big league leader was Minnesota Twins lefty Taylor Rogers with only 30. Myriad pitchers are on pace to top that mark. Bradley had 25 holds last season. Perhaps he closes in 2019.

-- Eight different Philadelphia Phillies pitchers have saves this season. Eight! Seranthony Dominguez remains the one pitcher you want in fantasy, but right-hander Victor Arano is likely to keep getting chances as well. Dominguez enters games to face the opposition's top hitters and sometimes gets a save. Well, Arano also has three saves in the past week. This should continue, and it makes Arano potentially more valuable, I think, than either of the Houston closers. When the Phillies win, it is generally a close game.
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[HacheMan]

Buster Posey is hurting, but still has plenty of value

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

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I found it interesting that San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy told reporters Monday that the recent hip injury suffered by Buster Posey, the one that will keep him from participating in next week's All-Star Game, was the reason for his decreased power.

When exactly did Posey hurt the hip? Last month, or in 2016? I am not trying to be facetious, but the fact is that despite Posey, still only 31, blessing the Giants and fantasy managers with a terrific career, he has hit a total of 31 home runs over his past 361 games and 1,500 plate appearances since the start of 2016. New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez hit 33 home runs just last season. Posey's power left a while ago.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>That does not mean Posey can no longer be a terrific fantasy option. After all, I still have him among my top 100 overall, though behind Miami Marlins All-Star J.T. Realmuto because he is having the superior season and it does not appear the least bit fluky. Realmuto is not Max Muncy, you know. He has been an excellent fantasy option for three seasons, hitting for average and stealing more bases than all the other catchers combined, and now he hits for power as well. Realmuto jacked 17 home runs last season, and when he returns later this week from the paternity list -- congrats to him and his wife, as their first child was born Tuesday! -- he returns to his pace of 20. Realmuto is fantasy's top catcher now.

Posey investors in re-draft formats should not worry, though, and probably should celebrate him missing the All-Star festivities. We do not earn fantasy points for exhibition contests, and catchers need more rest than most. Posey has caught 852 games in his career, so it is hardly a surprise to see some wear and tear affect him. He is also on pace for single-digit home runs and fewer than 50 runs batted in. However, thanks to the nice batting average and runs scored, still excellent for the position, he ranks seventh among backstops on the season Player Rater. He has one fewer walk than strikeout. Nobody is saying to drop Posey, but this hip injury gives us a chance to reflect on his actual value and future. To some, it might be troubling.

There is little question Posey has more value to the Giants behind the plate, rather than at first base, and the same goes for fantasy managers. Few catchers, frankly, would have value without catcher eligibility. Posey ranks No. 142 among batters on the Rater, behind Niko Goodrum, Josh Reddick and Albert Pujols. As a catcher, he matters.

The hip injury shows up in Posey's metrics, as he has hit fewer line drives and more ground balls, which is never positive, but his hard-hit percentage is a career best. His plate discipline remains excellent. I have tired of counting on catchers like Mike Zunino, who hit for power but won't even reach their weight in batting average. Posey is safe for batting average, but is he really just Francisco Cervelli with more batting average and runs? Nobody wants to think that.

For those rostering Posey in dynasty/keeper formats, sure, get modestly concerned. The organization chose sure thing Joey Bart out of Georgia Tech with the No. 2 pick last month, and his timetable for the majors could be 2020. Posey's best stats are behind him, and the future probably lies at first base -- and we stopped recommending Minnesota Twins first baseman Joe Mauer many years ago. Perhaps Posey, becoming free of donning the so-called tools of ignorance on a more regular basis, returns to hitting 20 home runs while keeping the high batting average. Playing catcher is ridiculously tough physically, and Posey is hardly a defensive liability. He is simply hurting.

Posey was hitless in five at-bats on Monday out of the No. 2 lineup spot against what appeared to be a rejuvenated Chicago Cubs right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who got 19 outs on strikeouts and grounders. Many Giants struggled in this one. Posey is on the schedule to get an injection for the hip inflammation soon and in addition to next week off might need a DL stint at some point, but even then, I would not recommend fantasy managers run away. He looks like he simply needs a break, as we all do. Realmuto is getting one this week. Yadier Molina, replacing Posey on the All-Star team, recently had a long break. Catchers get hurt. So few of them are reliable for fantasy managers annually that Posey retains value, but he might soon fall out of my top three at his position, and top 100 overall, if all we get statistically is batting average and runs scored. He still matters, but just a bit less than he used to.


​

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates: 2-for-3, HR, 4 RBI, SB

• Scott Schebler, OF, Cincinnati Reds: 4-for-5, HR, 3 RBI

• Stephen Piscotty, OF, Oakland Athletics: 3-for-4, HR, 2 RBI

• Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

• Kyle Hendricks, SP, Chicago Cubs: 8 1/3 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K

Lowlights:

• Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees: 1-for-8, 5 K

• Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets: 1-for-7, 4 K

• Francisco Liriano, SP, Detroit Tigers: 2 1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

• Luis Perdomo, SP, San Diego Padres: 7 IP, 10 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

• Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets: 4 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Monday takeaways:

​

J.D. Martinez hit his 28th HR of the season in Monday's win over the Rangers. The @RedSox improve to 24-3 when he homers this season.
Martinez now has 60 HR and 153 RBI in his last 162 games. pic.twitter.com/qpvqnwxgqk
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 10, 2018


​

• I think we have come to the point that J.D. Martinez deserves top-10 consideration in fantasy. I have him at No. 13, but is that enough? This is a Triple Crown threat, and best I can tell, the main concern with him is durability, since he last played in more than 120 games in 2015. Is Giancarlo Stanton really safer for a full season of playing time? I don't think he is, and Martinez is superior in batting average, which is why Martinez leaped past Stanton and many others in my rankings last week. What are we missing? Martinez is the No. 3 hitter on the Player Rater after Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez. So far, he is Mike Trout sans the stolen bases, but with a lot more RBIs. I think Martinez moves into my top 10 soon.

• Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer returned from his DL stint and did not look right, finally succumbing to baserunners in the third inning for three runs, and leaving after one out in the fourth. Archer threw strikes and the velocity looked OK, and his next outing against the Twins this weekend will be an important one for his fantasy value. Should it be? I would argue it should not, since this is a K-per-inning option capable of much more, and perhaps a trade will return him to past glories. He remains outside my top-20 starting pitchers, but should be rostered in all formats. This is actually a wise time to trade for him, for real and fantasy.

• As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers sent injured Yasiel Puig to the DL, where he figures to miss the rest of July at least. Andrew Toles earned the promotion and the start in center field, and he contributed two hits, two RBIs and two runs. Toles should play the next few weeks, and with this outfield, perhaps many more. Remember, this was the team's leadoff hitter last April before he tore his knee in the outfield, and he can hit for average and steal a base.

Injuries of note:

• Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant homered in his rehab appearance Monday for Double-A Tennessee and could return to the major league club any day now, so be prepared. I sat Bryant in a weekly league because he might not return until Friday, but in a daily format, he goes active right away.

Closing time:

• Baltimore Orioles lefty Zach Britton retired the Yankees without major incident in the ninth inning Monday for his second save of his brief season, and first since June 23. Yes, the Orioles do not offer many late-inning leads for their pitchers. Britton has shown better command of his often-unhittable sinker and a wise fantasy manager would consider this opportunity to trade Britton for largely any other top-15 closer. For one, the Orioles are awful, perhaps historically so. Save chances will not come often. Two, if they are smart -- and they seldom seem to be -- they will trade Britton and most contenders would use him in a setup role. Unlike some Orioles, I cannot imagine Britton telling reporters, when it comes to future role, "I am a closer. Period." Regardless, Brad Brach was awful again on Monday, and if Britton goes elsewhere, I think Mychal Givens has earned the chance to close. But again, we are talking about perhaps 12 save opportunities the rest of the way.

W2W4:

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Yankees right-hander ​

Masahiro Tanaka

returns from his long DL stint to face the awful Orioles, and while I normally would be cautious in activating a pitcher in this situation, I'm not with this opponent. Tanaka is having a weird statistical season, with a WHIP so low it generally tells us the ERA will follow, but thanks to a home run rate rivaling last season's, we worry. Tanaka does not allow myriad runners, but the home runs ruin his ERA. OK, so perhaps ​

Mark Trumbo

and ​

Adam Jones

take him deep, but three runs over six innings sounds fair.

The ​

Arizona Diamondbacks

and ​

Colorado Rockies

meet in Denver with lefties ​

Patrick Corbin

and ​

Tyler Anderson

on the mound. Corbin has permitted two earned runs over his past three outings, so that really gets tested in the thin air. He has made eight starts at Coors Field and his ERA is 7.11. That number is good for late night snacks, not an ERA. Anderson is a breakout performer who has permitted nary a run in his past two outings, and one came at home. He is also piling on the whiffs. Neither fellow comes recommended for today due to venue, but I bet each performs better than expected.​

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[HacheMan]

Evaluating hitters with low batting averages

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Five hitters qualified for the batting title remain in the porous hitting club that could not be further away from a batting title. These are the players hitting on the wrong side of .200 for the season. While one might think no fantasy manager would want any part of these players, that is not always the case. In fact, the best way to raise a composite batting average for a fantasy team is often to invest in hitters that have to improve. A sub-.200 batting average for a proven veteran nearly always rises above that level.

I have been thinking about this lately because Los Angeles Angels outfielder Kole Calhoun, who fell off the relevancy board for fantasy managers last season when his batting average tanked, has raised his batting average 27 points since coming off the disabled list three weeks ago. It is currently at .180. That is not much, but it beats .153. Calhoun homered on Tuesday, his fifth in those 20 games. If you added Calhoun three weeks ago, he has helped you.

Baltimore Orioles second baseman Jonathan Schoop is another one and I admitted a few weeks ago I was no longer interested in his services on my fantasy teams, and moved on. As they say in "Rounders," bad judgment! Schoop was hitting .197 when July began. Ten days and games later he is hitting .432 this month with seven extra-base hits and as colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft reports, seven of his hits have gone to the opposite field, which really is not his game. Schoop, and perhaps Calhoun, have made adjustments to return to relevance.

It is an arbitrary number, this sub-.200 batting average -- is Adam Duvall any different hitting .204? -- but regardless, here are the five hitters because, like Calhoun and Schoop have shown, anything is possible.

Chris Davis, 1B, Baltimore Orioles: Even when he hit .215 last year he managed 26 home runs. This version of Davis seems far from that, and he has actually lowered his K rate a bit. The shifting really hurts Davis's chances of hitting better than, say, .220. If he provided the power of another option on this list, that would be different, but Davis looks like the worst player in baseball, even worse than Albert Pujols, who has been below replacement level since the start of 2017.

Lewis Brinson, OF, Miami Marlins: A rookie serving a DL stint for hip inflammation, Brinson reminds many of former big leaguer Mike Cameron, who never flirted with a batting title himself, but hit for enough power and stole enough bases that we still coveted him at times. Brinson drew walks in the minors, so give him time. What concerns me is that he has attempted only two stolen bases. This should be a 20/20 option within two years, so try to keep him in dynasty formats.

Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers: Gallo's .189 batting average is only 20 points worse than what he finished at least season, and while it is little consolation, it is worth pointing out he draws walks so the batting average does not have the impact of what, say, Schoop's does. Gallo also has 21 home runs. Davis does not. Personally, I have no shares of Gallo anywhere, though he is rostered in more than 85 percent of leagues, understandably so. I understand there is value here, but you know he cannot hit for average. The power and defensive versatility is nice, but Schoop hit .293 last season. Gallo might not hit .193. Do not expect this batting average to rise.

Logan Morrison, 1B, Minnesota Twins: Hitter of 38 home runs for last season's Rays, Morrison might not reach 20 this season, and he is playing on a one-year contract. He needs to play well. Morrison is another left-handed victim of the shift and yes, it has made me at least think about whether to invest in hitters of his ilk. Jay Bruce, for example, looked a lot better before everyone shifted him like crazy. I do not agree with calls to outlaw shifting, but sure, I will be reconsidering some lefty pull hitters in the future, at least compared to other options. Morrison's K rate is down, his contact rate is up, and he is hitting more fly balls. A .184 BABIP against right-handed pitching is playing a role here, but Morrison seems capable of turning things around. He hit .244 in May with four homers and a high walk rate. For those in deeper formats, he can repeat that.

Alcides Escobar, SS, Kansas City Royals: Since there is nothing to see here and the Royals should have known this -- though the .199-hitting Escobar started in center field last night, which is worse -- let us use this space to discuss Adalberto Mondesi, the 22-year-old son of a former player that has intrigued us for a few years. Mondesi homered, knocked in four runs and was successful on one of two stolen base attempts Tuesday. It is quite a full night for him. Mondesi has Schoop-like plate discipline, which is going to be a problem and because he lacks the power and strength of Schoop, I doubt he can hit better than .250 consistently in the majors. He can run though and offers second base and shortstop eligibility. I cannot fathom why the Royals would not play Mondesi regularly, somewhere, and let him develop. I think he can steal 20 bases this season. I also would not be surprised if he hits around .200. Buyer beware.

By the way, there are some interesting names hitting worse than .220, including Bryce Harper, Michael Conforto and Jason Kipnis. Harper has to be hurt, and talented as he is, I am not trading for him unless the price really drops. I doubt it will. Also, please do not ever tell me about how contract years automatically push players to perform so much better. Harper is not performing better. Conforto is clearly hurt with the shoulder, and I hope he is healthy for 2019. Kipnis is also clearly playing through something, as he cannot touch power right-handers or run as he used to.


​

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI

Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals: 4-for-5, HR, 2 RBI

Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 12 K

Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago Cubs: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Lowlights:

Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals: 0-for-5, 4 K

Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 0-for-4, 4 K

Yovani Gallardo, SP, Texas Rangers: 5 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Mike Leake, SP, Seattle Mariners: 4 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Cody Allen, RP, Cleveland Indians: 2/3 IP, 3 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Tuesday takeaways:

​

By scoring 9 runs tonight against the Twins, the @Royals posted their largest scoring output since May 30...also against the Twins.
In fact, the Royals snapped a 30-game streak of scoring 5 runs or fewer.
That was the longest such streak since the Mets (40 games) in 1979. pic.twitter.com/IvasQgFba3
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 11, 2018


​

• I would like to share with you the names of several Royals hitters to invest in, but I just cannot do it. I have an obligation to tell the truth when analyzing performance, you know. I am pleased that Whit Merrifield is performing even better than I expected, and I seemed like one of the few that expected anything close to what he did last year. I thought Merrifield, who kind of came from nowhere to hit .288 and lead the AL in steals last season, would hit fewer home runs. That seemed obvious. Merrifield might hit 10. However, he is hitting .306 and running, and added outfield eligibility. I am a big fan. Other than that, move on. Third baseman Mike Moustakas might hit 30 home runs for another team soon, but he has otherwise been quiet. Catcher Sal Perez has become an automatic out lately. Jorge Soler is on the DL. How did this franchise let all this happen?

• There has been talk in Philadelphia about replacing Maikel Franco with Moustakas but you know what, Franco, for all that is wrong with him -- and there is plenty -- now boasts the better OPS. Franco is really enjoying himself in the No. 8 lineup spot over 10 games, hitting .394 with a 1.124 OPS. A few of his walks have been intentional with the pitcher on deck but still, Franco is hitting right-handed pitching. Being benched for J.P. Crawford motivated him, one presumes. I still cannot recommend him for standard leagues, because there are holes in this swing and the bad streaks cancel the good ones, and who knows if he is still playing regularly come August, but sure, keep an eye on this.

• Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman stymied the Atlanta Braves over seven strong innings, allowing one run on six hits. Stroman can be compared to the sub-.200 hitters in some ways. His 5.90 ERA is obviously going in the right direction, though I still think he was a bit overrated heading into the season. Stroman's career WHIP is 1.28. That does not help us. His K rate is 7.3. Nor does that. However, like a Schoop or Calhoun, he is not this bad. It remains a good time to acquire him.

• Boston Red Sox bench option Blake Swihart had a few hits and runs batted in to raise his batting average to .200. He did so playing catcher, a spot that could be open for him -- if he hits -- with Christian Vazquez out until September after finger surgery. Swihart, who is outfield eligible, should be a good hitter for average and provide double-digit pop. Those in multi-catcher formats should see if he keeps getting at-bats.

<strike></strike>Injuries of note:

• Los Angeles Angels right-hander Garrett Richards left his outing prematurely clutching his forearm and while I am not a doctor, I know that is not good. Richards has already made 16 starts, 10 more than in either of his past two seasons, and he has shown signs of being a top-30 starter. Now, we wonder when he will pitch again. He has had elbow woes that were not surgically fixed, quite famously in fact, and this ... well, let us wait for clarity. It would be a shame.

• Washington Nationals lefty closer Sean Doolittle succumbed to the DL with toe inflammation, and will not perform in the All-Star Game. I believe if it was August Doolittle would still be pitching, but the Nationals can give him the rest of this week off and a longer vacation. In other words, do not panic here. Kelvin Herrera will get the saves this week, but I do think Doolittle returns when eligible.

Closing time:

• What a nightmare outing for Cleveland Indians right-hander Cody Allen, who was summoned with a 4-0 lead and was ultimately charged with six earned runs, the final half on a Joey Votto double off a struggling right-hander that was supposed to be a veteran lefty. Allen was wild, though unlucky. He hit a guy, but the first two hits he permitted were not 100 mph line drives by any means. The Adam Duvall double was a shot, though. Then there was an intentional walk and an unintentional one and he was gone. Dan Otero was supposed to be Oliver Perez, but communication broke down. How does that even happen? Who lets Otero face Joey Votto? Regardless, I am not worried about Allen. It was a bad night, that is all. There is nobody else to close for this team. Lefty Andrew Miller might return from the DL this month, but Allen had a 3.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP entering Tuesday. He is fine, a borderline top-10 fantasy closer. Nobody calls him Kimbrel.

• Things did not improve for Houston Astros right-hander Ken Giles as he did not retire any of the three Oakland hitters he faced in his non-save chance and then he seemed unhappy, shall we say nicely, with manager A.J. Hinch for removing him. Giles still has not blown a save this year, but I half expect he is on another team before August. Perhaps he gets saves for that one. I do not see 10 saves for him the rest of this season with the Astros, especially now.

W2W4:

• The Cubs might have third baseman Kris Bryant back for the matchup with Johnny Cueto in San Francisco, but if you have Bryant, you know to play him. Is Cueto safe after that first outing off the DL when he permitted 10 hits and five runs? Stick with him, but be concerned if this one goes awry. Also, watch the Giants' Alen Hanson. He should be playing regularly and he can be a five-category aid in deep formats.

<strike></strike>We spoke on Monday's Fantasy Focus baseball podcast -- yes, we still have a show twice a week -- about struggling lefties with walk issues perhaps turning into Tampa Bay's Blake Snell and the best I came up with was Sean Newcomb and perhaps Danny Duffy. I totally whiffed on Chicago White Sox youngster Carlos Rodon, who walked six in his most recent outing. A strikeout hurler lurks if Rodon can find control, but it is his fourth year and one can reasonably wonder if it will ever show up. He faces the Cardinals.

• Current Texas Rangers are hitting .123 with a .381 OPS against Boston Red Sox lefty Chris Sale. How can this not be a 12-K performance over seven shutout frames? Bartolo Colon, meanwhile, should have a far tougher time. Rafael Devers is 2-for-3 against Colon with a pair of home runs. DFS alert!<strike></strike>
​

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[HacheMan]

Evaluating the New York Mets' outfield, and where Tim Tebow could fit in

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

Most fantasy managers have to know that Tim Tebow, the polarizing former Heisman Trophy winner and current outfielder in the New York Mets farm system, is not likely to procure much or any fantasy relevance either this season or in the future. There, I wrote it. I am not intending to be at all mean or disrespectful of this nice man -- and he really is quite nice in person -- but if you want my honest opinion, there it is. I often say or write negative things about Maikel Franco and Tyler Chatwood, too, and those are not the least bit personal, either. Those guys have hurt a fantasy team or two of mine, and perhaps yours.

I cannot predict Tebow will have much statistical impact for fantasy managers, but he is on my mind today because he always seems to be on someone's mind, and he participated in Wednesday night's Eastern League All-Star game in Trenton, New Jersey, that colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft and I gleefully attended. Tebow batted ninth and assumed the designated hitter spot for the East squad. The left-handed hitter sliced a double just fair down the left field line in his first at-bat against legitimate pitching prospect Beau Burrows, struggling to catch up to his fastball but enjoying the result, and then he was quiet over three appearances thereafter, culminating in a ninth-inning strikeout against another hard-thrower. The game ended in a 4-4 tie.


I could have chosen to lead today's blog entry with thoughts on Kris Bryant, Chris Sale or even Ken Giles, but hey, this is Tim Tebow! Everyone seems to be interested, even if most claim they are not. Give him credit and plenty of it. However, Tebow, is not a legitimate prospect, mainly due to being 30 years old, but the numbers also tell us there is not much to grasp. He is hitting a competent .270 for Double-A Binghamton but with a .423 BABIP, which tells us he has been fortunate to hit that number. He is quite a bit older than all the pitchers he faces. Tebow has five home runs over 76 games and 267 plate appearances. He strikes out 35.6 percent of the time, right around the Joey Gallo mark. Tebow has three walks and 27 whiffs against left-handed pitching. All these numbers are not likely to improve against big-league hurlers.

Still, because of the situation the New York Mets happen to be in, with a poor 2018 club, many empty seats at Citi Field and the likes of infielder Ty Kelly embarrassingly starting games in left field of late, Tebow is likely to play outfield in the majors this season. We should be OK with that. It is not as if he is taking a roster spot of some great, deserving player. Tebow is an attraction, and this is a business. Pay to see him play if you desire. Tebow is rostered in 0.2 percent of ESPN standard leagues, which is not much, but still somehow a bit generous. But it's a cool story, and I want to see it play out. I just have no interest in adding him to my fantasy roster when it happens, but if Tebow stunningly hits like Max Muncy in September, sure, I will write about it then, too, and admit I was wrong.

We should, in relation, be discussing the grand disappointment that is the legitimate Mets outfield. For example, it sure seems to me that Yoenis Cespedes, who signed a four-year, $110-million contract before last season, is one of the most overrated players in fantasy. Yes, he has twice surpassed 30 home runs in his career, which spans seven seasons and four big league clubs, but he sure does miss a lot of games. Cespedes can hit, but he cannot help the Mets or us from the bench, and he has not played in two months with a hip injury. He missed half of last season with leg woes. He is 32, and I doubt he suddenly becomes an iron man, even if he moves to first base. We cannot drop him in re-draft formats, as he could play next week and can obviously matter statistically. The Mets are bad, though, and I cannot see Cespedes playing in 75 percent of their games from here on out. For next year, by the way, he figures to be a top-100 option in the rankings, but I will surely avoid him.

Meanwhile, right fielder Jay Bruce, has been one of the more durable, consistent players for a decade. He has an injured hip, as well, but I feel like he played through the injury and actually wants to return quickly. That can be a good thing or a bad thing. Bruce is hitting .212 with three home runs. I have written about how opponent shifting has hurt him more than it has others. Bruce is a lefty pull hitter, albeit one hitting plenty of fly balls, and nobody expected him to hit .300, but .250 with 30 homers has become his norm. Perhaps he gets right in the second half -- I am optimistic. Next season, I am far more likely to invest in Bruce in Round 15 than Cespedes in Round 10.

Michael Conforto is clearly still hampered by his left shoulder, which he tore last August and had surgically repaired, and his hard-rate has cratered. He is hitting many more ground balls and cannot catch up to fastballs. Conforto remains a dynasty favorite, but for this year, I would move on in re-draft formats. I cannot see a second-half resurrection. I am hoping his career can get back on track, but am also fearful. Conforto assuredly gets selected ahead of Bruce next season, but I am not sure about the value.

Jose Bautista is playing regularly because the Mets need three outfielders to do so each day. He draws his walks and ... well, that's all. The power is mostly gone. Then there is Brandon Nimmo. He is awesome. OK, he is not as awesome as he appeared a month ago, but he blasted the walk-off winner on Wednesday and should be the center fielder the rest of the way and into 2019. Conforto is not a center fielder. I think, if Nimmo gets 550 at-bats next season, he would hit around .260 with 16 home runs and 12 steals. Perhaps he could be a poor man's Adam Eaton, when Eaton was with the Chicago White Sox. If the Mets commit to Nimmo in 2019 -- and one never knows with the Mets -- he would likely make my top-40 outfielders.

The point is, there is an obvious scenario in which Tebow, Nimmo and Bautista log regular outfield at-bats in September. No help, other than Tebow, is on the immediate way. Unfortunately, for fantasy managers, that is simply not going to be much help.​

---

[h=2]Wednesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI

• Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets: 8 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

• Marco Gonzales, SP, Seattle Mariners: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K

Lowlights:

• Tommy Pham, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Joey Gallo, 1B/3B/OF, Texas Rangers: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston Astros: 4 IP, 4 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 1 K

• Dylan Bundy, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K

• Shelby Miller, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 1 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Wednesday takeaways:


• The Rockies padded their offensive stats with 19 runs in the first four innings against the Diamondbacks, and more than half the outs Arizona "pitchers" earned came from non-pitchers. Kudos to Daniel Descalso and Alex Avila. The big story from this game is not that Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Desmond combined for three home runs and 11 RBI, or the hitters pitching, but Shelby Miller left early with elbow discomfort. I cannot say I thought Miller would be a top-50 starter for the second half, but I was intrigued. There was promise back in 2015. Now, the Diamondbacks really need more pitchers.

• The Chicago Cubs welcomed back Kris Bryant, and he homered in his first game and walked twice. He is fine and belongs on any list of buy-low options. With Ben Zobrist and Jason Heyward getting on base, this really is a nice, deep lineup with everyone contributing. The Cubs are going to have a big August.

• Chris Sale did as expected and shut down the Rangers over seven innings, but little did I know he would do precisely as expected from Wednesday's blog, which said he would whiff 12 over seven shutout innings. Sale passed Max Scherzer to become fantasy's top pitcher on the Player Rater, but that list will change as three of the top five are on the schedule to pitch Thursday (including Corey Kluber and Luis Severino). If you want to trade any hitter in the game, including Mike Trout, straight up for Sale or Scherzer, I would not laugh.• Rough outing for Lance McCullers, most notably the five walks versus one strikeout, two batters he hit and two wild pitches. He was coming off an outing with 12 whiffs and nary a free pass, so nobody should panic here, but with a 3.77 ERA and 3.69 FIP, this might not be a top-20 fantasy starter yet. This is the third time this season McCullers has permitted six or more runs in a start.

Injuries of note:

• The Los Angeles Angels will most likely not have the services of right-hander Garrett Richards until the start of 2020. I do not type that lightly. I hate to see UCL replacement surgery take a pitcher down. It stinks. Richards might not opt for the surgery, but at this point, after years of pushing it away, it seems imminent. The Angels do welcome back lefty Tyler Skaggs from a DL stint to start Thursday, but they need more arms. Skaggs faces the Mariners, but I would leave him on the bench for this one.

Closing time:

<strike></strike>• It seemed somewhat imminent that Astros right-hander Ken Giles would be anywhere else but in the team's bullpen soon, but instead of a trade -- which could still occur -- he was demoted to Triple-A. Giles is a bit like Colorado's Jon Gray in that the actual numbers for his season are not as bad as they appear. Giles has three walks versus 31 strikeouts, and two home runs allowed. His FIP is 2.32. I would say he will be back, but I think it is on another club, and he might close there. I think it will be tough for him, based on how he has acted (and this demotion is punitive, regardless of what the team says) to get saves this season. Feel free to send Giles to fantasy free agency.

W2W4

• Poor Robbie Ray was supposed to pitch in Atlanta on Friday, but because Zack Godley was needed in relief earlier this week, Ray was moved up to Thursday at Denver's Coors Field. Not good. Ray would be on my bench for this one in fantasy. He was already having control issues, and this will not help. If someone wants to acquire him from you, as if he is a safe top-20 option, see what you can get.

• Check out Los Angeles Dodgers All-Star Ross Stripling on ESPN+ at San Diego because this breakout is real and pitching in San Diego is often kind to opposing hurlers. Stripling is a bit short of qualifying for the ERA title, but his strikeout rate would rank him 14th among all starters, a bit ahead of Tampa Bay's Blake Snell, who also pitches Thursday. Stripling has been that good.
​

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[HacheMan]

Who is the first half fantasy MVP?

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

As we hit the final weekend of the ceremonial first half of the regular season, it seems a wise time to reflect on the best and worst. One member of the current top 10 on the ESPN Player Rater was not among the top 50 selected in ESPN Average Live Drafts. One member. To me, that makes it obvious who the first-half fantasy MVP would be. As for the LVP, well, that one is a bit dicier, and of course, similarly and purely subjective. Here we go!

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>First-half MVP: Javier Baez, 2B/SS/3B, Chicago Cubs

Yep, this 13th-round selection is having an amazing season, on pace for 32 home runs, 119 RBI, 31 stolen bases and 103 runs scored. In addition, despite his aggressive-swinging ways -- he has walked less than once per week -- Baez is hitting .289, quite a bit better than his career mark. It is all coming together for this 25-year-old with the quick wrists and defensive acumen. Cleveland Indians infielder Jose Ramirez leads the Player Rater and is the only other player on a 30/30 pace, but the word "value" appears in MVP and Ramirez was top 25 on draft day, expected to offer fantasy managers fantastic numbers. Baez, No. 10 on the Rater and tops among all NL hitters, went a lot later.

As for the rest of my subjective top 5 in fantasy MVP voting, certainly Ramirez and Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts should be afforded major credit for their work and mixed in somewhere, but I like to acknowledge mid-round choices and those not selected at all. Despite a rough outing on Thursday, Tampa Bay Rays All-Star lefty Blake Snell is 18th on the Rater and eighth among starting pitchers, nice work for a 23rd-round pick. He was barely drafted, and in many leagues, was not. Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies went a few rounds after Baez and is on pace for 36 homers and 130 runs scored. Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar went undrafted, and could become the top free agent pickup of the season. My top 5 for today is Baez, Albies, Aguilar, Snell and generally ignored Cincinnati Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett, who might win a batting title and hit 30 homers. Wow.

Baez, incidentally, seems like a reasonable real-life MVP choice at this point as well, presuming the Cubs remain a playoff contender, which they certainly should. Baez has really grown as a hitter, producing a lot more line drives and raising his hard-hit percentage quite a bit. The strides he seemed to make in plate discipline last year have not really reversed; he is walking less, but also striking out less. Essentially, this aggressive hitter has decided to become more aggressive. He is not hitting more fly balls, but is also barely top 20 in home run/fly ball ratio, so that seems relatively sustainable. He could always steal bases, but seldom did. Now he is. Put simply, this all looks legit.

First-half LVP: Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

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The fourth overall pick in ESPN ADP was Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper, and some/many would nominate him, but Harper is on pace for 40 home runs and close to 100 RBI and runs. It is not what anyone expected and certainly disappointing, but he is producing something, and is 25th among outfielders on the Rater. Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa was the No. 12 pick, on average, and has missed time with a back injury, but again, his numbers are helping people. Same with Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, slumping Astros outfielder George Springer and injured Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg.


Donaldson edges out Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager for fantasy LVP honors and here is why: one of them remains rostered in more than 84 percent of leagues on the hope he returns soon and hits myriad home runs. The other was lost to season-ending elbow surgery in April and fantasy managers were able to move on without potential consequence. Dump Donaldson and he could haunt you, though that seems less likely today than two months ago. Neither third-round draft selection has helped much, but Donaldson struggled to hit through a shoulder injury and then suffered a calf injury. He is hitting .234 with five home runs in 36 games. Joey Rickard has the same five home runs in 36 games. There are 234 players with more home runs. Perhaps Donaldson will be a second-half star, but color me skeptical.

Among actually healthy players, or at least those playing through something, Harper, Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger and Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier and outfielder Byron Buxton deserve notice for this honor. We should also not ignore injured New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez, New York Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and overrated Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish. Thanks again, fellows. It has been a blast so far!

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[h=2]Thursday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

Albert Pujols, 1B, Los Angeles Angels: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI

Kyle Gibson, SP, Minnesota Twins: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Jameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

Daniel Robertson, 2B/SS/3B, Tampa Bay Rays: 0-for-4, 4 K

Austin Romine, C, New York Yankees: 0-for-4, 4 K

James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners: 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 7 1/3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles: 5 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Thursday takeaways:​

Albert Pujols ties Ken Griffey Jr for 6th all-time with his 630th career home run pic.twitter.com/0fH21BpfC5
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 13, 2018


​

• Give credit where due. Pujols has had a Hall of Famer career -- should go on the first ballot -- and has surely won myriad championships for fantasy managers, and he is actually aiding people today. Pujols, 38, is still barely replacement level in real life, but he is 17th among first basemen on the Player Rater -- ahead of Jose Abreu, Anthony Rizzo and Eric Hosmer, incidentally -- and on pace, after his big Thursday night, for 28 home runs and 90 RBI. That counts for something and makes him a worthy corner option even for the shallow leagues, I suppose, though the upside really does not exist. As bad as Pujols was last season, his teammates presented him the opportunity to knock in 101 runs. That was the lone category he aided fantasy managers in. He can do this again, so we thank, basically, Mike Trout for his on-base prowess.

• The big story from the late-night Angels-Mariners game was James Paxton leaving after a few outs and a few home runs with back stiffness. Look for a DL stint for sure and we hope Paxton returns to pitch this month. He is the No. 16 starting pitcher on the Player Rater but with a long, frustrating career of injuries, and the Mariners cannot afford to lose him.

• Philadelphia Phillies catcher Jorge Alfaro needed a triple for the cycle, and watching just about every one of his games this season one can spot the potential for 20 home runs and a .250 batting average, and that would make him a top-10 fantasy option. Alfaro is not there yet. He swings at everything, in or out of the strike zone, but I am a bit surprised he has not turned his natural power into more home runs yet. For those in dynasty formats, this is someone to target, if you target catchers at all, which I admit I never do. Alfaro is built like a workhorse catcher and should be hitting 20 homers soon.

• I simply cannot believe Jose Ramirez is on his way to more than 40 home runs. I think we knew much of last season's breakout was legit, but this power is hard to believe. Ramirez has hit four home runs in three days and remains one of the few players with more walks than strikeouts. This is awesome!

• The lone player to provide a home run and a stolen base on Thursday was Astros utility guy Tony Kemp, earning a rare start in left field with rookie Kyle Tucker sitting. Tucker will play regularly and he should produce. Kemp, over 133 plate appearances, has more walks than whiffs and I think if he played regularly he could hit .300 with 12 homers and more than 20 steals. I do not see the opportunity coming with the champs, though, but watch the offseason news. Kemp is intriguing.

Injuries of note:

• Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers hopes to return from his DL stint as soon as the second half commences, and according to the numbers, his shoulder injury did not seem to be a serious issue. In fact, Devers was hitting far above his season batting average in the past month and with power. This is a future star, folks, so do not get ideas about sending him to free agency because he is missing this weekend. He is 21 and boasts power and a mature approach. Again, do you realize how young he is? Wait for him. Do not wait for Dustin Pedroia; as suspected, he might be done.

Closing time:

• While we do not think Nationals closer Sean Doolittle will miss much time on the DL, it was a bit of a surprise to see Kelvin Herrera pitch the eighth inning with a small lead on Thursday, ceding closing duties for Ryan Madson. Sure, Madson got the save, but we were led to believe that was not the hierarchy. Herrera has sputtered of late, permitting runs in three of four appearances, and with four walks in that span. That is not cool. The point should be moot this time next week when Doolittle returns.

W2W4:

• The Yankees and Indians continue their series near Lake Erie with some intriguing arms on the schedule, including Shane Bieber (Friday) and Masahiro Tanaka (Sunday). Bieber continues to be a bit unlucky with the many hits allowed, but he has walked precisely one hitter in each outing. His control is impeccable. Tanaka's first outing off a long DL stint came in Baltimore, and he still could not last five innings. I would leave both Bieber and Tanaka on the bench if possible, due to the quality of opponent, but each is a key fantasy option for the second half.

<strike></strike>Mariners designated hitter Nelson Cruz is universally rostered and should be, but he might see only a few at-bats this weekend at Coors Field because he will not be summoned to handle outfield duty. That makes sense. Cruz is not a young man by baseball standards and nobody wants him to get hurt. Perhaps he can hit a homer among his pinch-hitting chances. The Mariners would not have had Paxton for this series anyway, but it will be interesting to see if lefty Wade LeBlanc and right-hander Mike Leake can give the team reasonable innings. LeBlanc is among the top 20 in MLB ERA, but does not have the innings to qualify for the ERA title. Fantasy managers have been ignoring him. I wonder if that continues if his ERA is still 3.39 in a few weeks.

• And finally, my favorite part of All-Star weekend is Sunday's Future's Game, which unfortunately gets played during actual MLB games, which seems kind of silly to me. Regardless, as colleague Tommy Rancel so excellently pointed out, many young, interesting players will perform in this game, including Indians catcher Francisco Mejia, Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette and Oakland lefty Jesus Luzardo. Look for a follow-up column from Rancel as well.<strike></strike>
​

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[HacheMan]

Is Corey Dickerson for real?

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

While so many around baseball marvel at the powerful season turnaround by St. Louis Cardinals infielder Matt Carpenter, the No. 2 option​

on the 7-day Player Rater deserves some notice as well.

​

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Corey Dickerson certainly was not hitting on the wrong side of .200 eight weeks ago, and has not blasted a ridiculous 18 home runs since the start of June, but Dickerson did homer four times this weekend, knocking in five runs with his eight hits and even stealing his sixth base of the season. It is not on par with Carpenter, but it is significant, as he remains available in nearly 20 percent of ESPN standard leagues

Dickerson's Pirates have won nine games in a row and that too is significant because this appeared to be a team looking to sell rather than buy, and who knows what the next week of games will bring. Remember, the MLB non-waiver trade deadline occurs on the final day of July and Dickerson could still be joining his fourth team since 2015, potentially opening an outfield spot for prospect Austin Meadows, who seems to deserve one. The Tampa Bay Rays curiously dumped the 29-year-old lefty slugger in February and he landed in Pittsburgh, though it did not seem like a long-term fit. It still does not, really.

However, fantasy managers should always be interested in streaking players because on occasion these players can maintain performance. Dickerson is, after all, a proven hitter, showing for much of last season he was capable of producing power and batting average outside of Coors Field. Dickerson has had an odd 2018 season statistically, hitting better than .300 in each of the first two months but with middling power and a strikeout rate divided in half from 2017. Dickerson is all about making contact. Then he did not homer at all in June over 80 plate appearances, and fantasy managers moved on. Now he is hitting .391 in July with six home runs and three stolen bases. It should pique the interest of contending teams in real life, too.

Then again, Dickerson has hit for average and power before, sans the speed. He is not a particularly attractive points league option because he has drawn fewer than a walk per week, but most formats penalize for strikeouts and Dickerson is barely doing that. One could view his recent power surge as being possible due to the generosity of awful Cincinnati Reds pitching. The immediate schedule features three Cleveland Indians right-handers, two of them with elite strikeout stuff (Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer), but then it is the laughable dysfunction of the New York Mets and looming in early August is a road series at Coors Field.

Perhaps Dickerson is no longer a Pirate by then, but he still seems like a worthy addition to a fantasy roster in case the power keeps on coming. Dickerson's second half of 2017 was hardly impressive when compared to his first half, but we should not view him in that light, either. He is a streaky player, one apparently still working on his new contact-heavy approach and a month or more of relevant power remains feasible.

As for Carpenter, now rostered in more than 93 percent of ESPN standard leagues, he homered while you were reading this, probably. OK, but he mashed six home runs in the extended weekend series at Wrigley Field, including a three-homer day with two doubles on Friday afternoon. While it is hard to top Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar or Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy for fantasy free agent of the year honors, Carpenter was readily available in mid-May. I took a chance in one league, and things have worked out nicely. Always look at your bench and see if a proven player (Gary Sanchez, Carlos Santana, Brian Dozier) is mistakenly available.

​

Sunday recap

Box scores

Highlights:

• Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, Seattle Mariners: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI

• Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

• Zack Greinke, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K

• Vince Velasquez, SP, Philadelphia Phillies: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 7 K

Lowlights:

• J.T. Realmuto, C, Miami Marlins: 0-for-5, 4 K

• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Matt Harvey, SP, Cincinnati Reds: 3 2/3 IP, 8 H, 8 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

• Lance McCullers Jr., SP, Houston Astros: 4 1/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 3 K

• Kyle Barraclough, RP, Miami Marlins: 2/3 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Weekend takeaways:

​

6 different Angels players recorded multiple RBI today, the team's most in a single game since August 23, 2003 against the Tigers, tied for their 2nd-most in franchise history. pic.twitter.com/RpDSZGPiZm
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 23, 2018


​

• The Los Angeles Angels boast baseball's best player in Mike Trout and other useful parts on offense, but do not overlook the recent work of outfielder and occasional leadoff option Kole Calhoun. As with Carpenter, Rougned Odor and others one might have originally drafted and given up on, Calhoun has been a different player since coming off the DL. He blasted a three-run homer off Chris Devenski Sunday and earlier drew a few walks. He was hitting .145 when he came off the DL in mid-June. Since then he is hitting .278 with nine home runs. He's not Carpenter, but Calhoun is readily available and proven for deeper formats.

• Stephen Strasburg came off the DL Friday night and got whooped by the Braves for six earned runs over 4 2/3 innings. Strasburg really did not pitch better than his final line, as there was hard contact the entire time, but with him it is rarely about the stats; it is also about the next DL stint. The Nationals remain in contention in the NL East, of course, but getting a healthy and productive Strasburg is key. Fantasy managers should trade for him with relative confidence, but if the Brewers hit him hard this week, well, I will wonder.

• Manny Machado fit right in with his new Los Angeles Dodgers teammates and figures to remain in the No. 2 lineup spot. Chris Taylor figures to lead off but third baseman Justin Turner, hitting third on Sunday, is likely headed to another DL stint, this time with a groin injury. Do not expect Machado to move to third base. Max Muncy can handle it. Turner is having a lost season thanks to injuries and I would not target him in a fantasy league. Taylor leading off ahead of Machado should help him, but what is missing are the stolen bases. He is 4-of-9. That is weird. Adding Machado likely does not help that.

Injuries of note:

• Ah, the New York Mets are a treasure. Right-hander Noah Syndergaard hit the DL due to the hand, foot and mouth disease, which is normally a problem for children, and for fantasy purposes this does not appear to be a big deal. Syndergaard might miss only one outing. Whether he makes all his outings for the final nine weeks or not is more problematic. Durability is not his thing. Same for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and depending on whom one listens to, he might not play another game this season ... or he hits third on Monday. If I had any shares of Cespedes, who is apparently dealing with a heel issue, I would move them quickly. I fear this will not end well.

• The original projection on ESPN Fantasy for Cleveland Indians outfielder Bradley Zimmer this season featured 14 home runs, 34 stolen bases and 71 runs scored. It seemed generous, but Zimmer does possess all the tools to be a terrific player. He ended up hitting two home runs and stealing four bases and underwent shoulder surgery over the weekend. He might not be ready for the start of 2019 games, either. Just remember the name as a sleeper pick next spring.

Closing time:

• The Oakland Athletics welcomed Jeurys Familia to their, um, familia, and he should pile on the holds and the occasional win, like Sunday, while setting up closer Blake Treinen. The Mets did not get much in return for this trade, and Robert Gsellman should handle the saves from here on out.

• The Nationals will not be getting closer Sean Doolittle back from the DL this week or this month, as his toe injury is a lot bigger deal than anyone expected. Kelvin Herrera saved Sunday's win and should continue in the role. Doolittle still ranks fourth among all relievers on the season Player Rater, but knowing his injury history and the proliferation of better assets on the DL, feel free to move on and add the likes of Herrera and Gsellman.

W2W4:


• The St. Louis Cardinals will debut right-hander Daniel Poncedeleon at Wrigley Field and while it might just be for one outing, he could stick around if he pitches well. Poncedeleon is more than a fancy name; he struck out 103 International League hitters in 92 innings and has recovered nicely from taking a line drive off his head last season. I always pay attention to Cardinals pitching prospects, though Luke Weaver has disappointed. Poncedeleon warrants a look.

• This could be the final outing in a Texas Rangers uniform for lefty Cole Hamels, the No. 92 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. OK, so that does not impress. Hamels is capable of much more and escaping his home ballpark (5.83 ERA) should help. His road ERA is considerably better (2.93).

• Chase Utley might not matter for fantasy managers anymore, but I will be cheering him in Philadelphia Monday. What a fantastic player Utley was in his prime, a five-category fantasy option. Of course, it is not all about fantasy, you know.

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[HacheMan]

Who will get saves when these closers are traded?

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Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

There will be actual, real-life trades over the next seven days prior to the deadline and relief pitchers will be among them. The trick for fantasy managers is to grab the saves likely to result from these trades, and in some cases the player on the move will not be providing them. For example, ​

Brad Hand

and ​

Jeurys Familia

were perfectly reasonable save options a week ago. Today they are not. Here are notable pitchers not currently in a save role but, if they are lucky, that could change in the next week.


Mychal Givens, Baltimore Orioles: The Orioles already moved infielder Manny Machado and it could be any minute that lefty Zach Britton joins him as a former member of the club. I am not the least bit convinced Britton will get saves with his new team or even deserves to. He has pitched capably this month but not like the 2016 version. Givens has been the top setup man for Buck Showalter this month because Brad Brach has pitched terribly. I would add Givens first.

Juan Minaya, Chicago White Sox: Joakim Soria has pitched rather well and one would presume a contender has noticed. With Nate Jones still on the shelf, that leaves Minaya, the closer the final two months of 2017, as the best option. Minaya's overall numbers do not impress, but he has cut down on the walks and earned holds in three of four appearances, albeit short outings. Jeanmar Gomez has experience as well.

Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers: Shane Greene had a short DL stint earlier in July but all seems well at this point, and Jimenez made the All-Star team as Detroit's lone representative. Greene figures to handle seventh-inning work upon a trade.


Drew Steckenrider, Miami Marlins: Closer Kyle Barraclough has not helped his case to go to a contender with a 9.39 ERA in July, but when he controls the walks, he is effective. Brad Ziegler remains in this bullpen but, really, the Marlins should move him for whatever they can get. Steckenrider closed some in the minors and seems ready for higher-leverage work.

Trevor Hildenberger, Minnesota Twins: Ageless Fernando Rodney boasts every last one of the club's 21 saves this season but Hildenberger leads in holds. Rodney is second to Boston's Craig Kimbrel among actives in saves, a mere two behind. It seems unlikely a contender would deal for Rodney as a closer, but one never knows. The Twins do not need him. For full disclosure, right-hander Ryan Pressly is having a better season than Hildenberger, but most of it comes in the sixth and seventh innings. I doubt he leapfrogs Hildenberger on the depth chart.

Phil Maton, San Diego Padres: The Padres really ought to move current closer Kirby Yates and the veteran setup man Craig Stammen just like they did Hand, perhaps creating opportunity for Maton or Matt Strahm. The Padres get it and they did well in the Hand trade. Maton closed in the minors. Strahm is no longer a starter. Yates and Stammen are pitching well.

Ryne Stanek, Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays are presumably smart enough to realize that both right-hander Sergio Romo and lefty Jose Alvarado are wise trade chips, and they can find anyone to close -- and start -- games. Romo went from opening games to closing them, so can Stanek. The Blake Snell injury situation should not cloud any potential reliever swaps.

Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers: Keone Kela has done nothing wrong but, again, bad teams should trade their closers because by the time the team is good again, the reliever probably is not. LeClerc is having a terrific season, with 13 strikeouts per nine innings and nary a home run allowed, despite pitching in a home ballpark permitting tons of home runs.

Other reliever thoughts

I did not include Cincinnati Reds closer Raisel Iglesias with the above group because there is little indication the franchise wants to move their 28-year-old right-hander. Jared Hughes is next in line and sharing some of the ninth-inning duties anyway.

The top reliever on the 30-day Player Rater is Pittsburgh Pirates lefty Felipe Vazquez. He last permitted a run five weeks ago and over his past 16 appearances has issued a walk in one of those games. Clearly whatever was wrong in early June is no longer an issue.

Oakland has five of the top 17 relief pitchers (eligibility wise, at least) on the 30-day Rater. That seems rare to me. We know Blake Treinen is awesome and Lou Trivino is there because he keeps winning games, which of course probably does not keep occurring. Yusmeiro Petit has also been winning games. Familia is no longer closing. The fifth option is starter Edwin Jackson, with dual eligibility. Strange. Roster Treinen only. Yes, dump Familia.

I am worried enough about Washington Nationals lefty Sean Doolittle returning to active pitching anytime soon that I would be strongly considering dumping him for his replacement Kelvin Herrera. Doolittle has a stress reaction on his left big toe. He is having a terrific season, but for the fourth consecutive season seems unlikely to top 52 innings.

Somewhat similarly, I doubt we see Atlanta Braves right-hander Arodys Vizcaino in the next month. A.J. Minter is getting the saves and that should continue. Dan Winkler was a nice story for a while.

The Toronto Blue Jays could opt to go with Ryan Tepera over Tyler Clippard to save games for the next few weeks, but the Roberto Osuna return happens Aug. 5. He will be the closer right away. Prepare in advance.

We keep assuming Cody Allen keeps the Cleveland closer role, but if he has another hiccup or two and with lefty Andrew Miller on the mend, I could see Hand taking the ninth innings. The Indians could have two lefties setting up, but, then again, Allen is struggling.​

 

[HacheMan]

Will a trade help Cole Hamels' value?


​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

The Texas Rangers will soon find a new home for experienced left-hander Cole Hamels and fantasy managers will probably shrug as if to say it just does not matter. Well, perhaps it will not. Hamels, after all, has not exactly been thriving of late, with Monday's seven-run whipping at the hands of the Oakland Athletics the latest gesture to do damage to what was, roughly a month earlier, a reasonable ERA and WHIP. Now Hamels boasts a 4.72 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and is down to 65 percent rostered in ESPN standard leagues, and that high a figure tells us name value matters. Perhaps it should in this case.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>While Hamels has not been particularly good anywhere over the past month, it is rather hard to ignore his home/road splits for the season, and the fact is Hamels might not have to pitch at Globe Life Park in lovely Arlington, Texas, again. He might be back in Philadelphia for his next outing, or to the south in Washington, D.C., or perhaps in Milwaukee, Chicago or Los Angeles. The point is Hamels has a 2.93 road ERA this season, and that is tied for 18th among pitchers with 40 or more road innings. He is not Max Scherzer, of course, but Hamels, 34, might still be able to aid a big league team and a fantasy version, so do not be so dismissive.


For example, Hamels is next on the schedule for Texas to face the loaded Houston Astros in their ballpark on Saturday night. One might think that sounds simply awful in light of recent performances, and a fantasy manager would prefer Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo as the pitcher. (Rizzo pitched on Monday. Of course he did. Every hitter, at some point, is going to pitch, it seems.) Well, Hamels has faced the Astros at Minute Maid Park twice this season: On April 13, he went six innings and permitted two runs. He fanned seven. On May 11, Hamels allowed one hit and nary a run over six innings. He won. Oh, the Astros torched Hamels last month but in Arlington. Apparently, there is a difference.

Look, most of us look at pitcher home/road splits mainly for the Colorado Rockies hurlers, and that is fine, but it seems worth pointing out that this season at least, the ballpark ceding the most runs according to park factors is ... the one in Arlington, Texas. Altitude-blessed Coors Field in Denver ranks second. Many a home run is blasted out of Arlington's stadium and Hamels is allowing a strong percentage of them -- 16 of them in 10 starts! Wow! -- and that seems relevant to me for this weekend and wherever he lands by next Tuesday, the non-waiver trade deadline. Just think about that when something happens because overall Hamels has struck out a hitter per inning and been stingy with home runs away from home.

<strike></strike>By the way, there are some other interesting pitchers that fantasy managers might not find so interesting on the leaderboard for road ERA. Toronto Blue Jays left-hander J.A. Happ, like Hamels likely to be on a contender soon, boasts a home ERA more than double his road one. Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez, who is not likely to be elsewhere soon but would, I believe, be a dominant closer if presented opportunity, struggles at home. Citizens Bank Park has been run-neutral this season, but home runs are populous there. Tyler Skaggs, Ross Stripling and Jeremy Hellickson have also pitched better away from home. Not all these splits make sense or tell us much. For Hamels and Happ, however, in the news because they are likely on the move, they do.

​

[h=2]Monday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees: 4-for-4, 2 RBI, 2 R

• Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland Athletics: 3-for-5, HR, 4 RBI

• Daniel Poncedeleon, SP, St. Louis Cardinals: 7 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

• Patrick Corbin, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 9 K

Lowlights:

• Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Devin Mesoraco, C, New York Mets: 0-for-4, 3 K

• Cole Hamels, SP, Texas Rangers: 5 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

• Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees: 5 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

• Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals: 5 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 5 BB, 5 K

Monday takeaways:

​

According to @EliasSports, Daniel Poncedeleon is the fifth pitcher to carry a no-hit bid through seven innings in his MLB debut in the Expansion Era (since 1961). pic.twitter.com/ZSDkMDdqCG
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 24, 2018
​

• Well, you have heard a few of those names, right? You at least know who Stripling is! Poncedeleon is not the first rookie right-hander to make quite an impression in his debut, and perhaps you had never heard of him before today, but he did post notable minor league numbers. Poncedeleon, who had his skull fractured by a Victor Caratini line drive in the minors last season, has an interesting windup and it might take hitters a while to time it properly, but his stuff should play in the majors as a mid-rotation option. In that sense, he might be like Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Nick Kingham, an unheralded prospect that starred in his 2018 debut, but has been ordinary since, and does not possess a wicked fastball. Poncedeleon needed 116 pitches to navigate seven innings, with deception being his best weapon, and his closer blew the win in the ninth. He could get another start this weekend against the Cubs and next week at home versus the Rockies, but I also do not think he should be the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues, either.

• As noted earlier, manager Joe Maddon felt it was a good idea Monday to let his first baseman pitch in a game the Cubs were going to lose. This is fine I suppose, but at some point when one of these non-pitchers hurts an arm or takes a line drive off a key body part the practice will likely cease. Perhaps eight-man bullpens simply are not enough. I see the reason why managers are doing this at a pace that has already surpassed all records but again, there is a downside for fantasy managers and it is impossible to predict or prepare for. Rizzo was the No. 20 player selected in ESPN average live drafts. Best I can tell none of the hitters chosen ahead of him have pitched in a big-league game. It is one thing for Ryan Rua to do it, but Anthony Rizzo? Again, one cannot prepare for this. Rizzo is not hurt. And no, you do not want the pitching stats from your hitters, just like you do not want the hitting stats for your pitchers. Things are just getting weird, you know?

• I cannot say I am particularly concerned about Cleveland Indians right-hander Corey Kluber, who permitted seven runs (three earned) in the rain-shortened loss versus the Pirates, but it does make for 13 runs in his past two outings. Kluber has already permitted 20 home runs, two away from his career worst. A weekend matchup against the Tigers should fix all woes, but if Kluber struggles again, perhaps he is hiding an injury. Hey, they can trade for Cole Hamels!

Injuries of note:

• Tampa Bay Rays lefty Blake Snell was placed on the DL with shoulder fatigue, which could be a big deal or could be nothing. Snell pitched poorly in his final start before the break, then pitched poorly and too much in the All-Star game. One must presume the Rays -- and those handling the AL All-Star team -- had no clue Snell was hurting. The Rays claim Snell will miss only one outing. Perhaps that is ridiculous, but for now, do not part with Snell. He is a top-10 pitcher for the season. I nearly led today's blog entry with Snell and Rays pitchers but honestly, I did not have much to say. Chris Archer is what he is, and might be on the move. Same with Nathan Eovaldi, who might be finally showing consistency, but I feel like we have said this in the past. I probably overrated Jacob Faria last year.

• Dodgers manager Dave Roberts convinced newcomer Manny Machado to move to third base, with Justin Turner (as expected) going on the DL yet again, this time for a groin injury. Perhaps this does not matter to anyone, but Machado could get the 20 games at third base this season to qualify for the spot in 2019. You might think you would only ever use him at shortstop and perhaps that is true, but it is always nice to have a choice. Really, I do not think third base is any stronger than shortstop in fantasy anyway. There are currently three more shortstops in the top 50 of hitters on the Player Rater than third basemen. As for Turner in his lost season, he should return in early August, but I am convinced his broken wrist from the spring is still a major problem and he will not hit for power again until 2019. The Dodgers might not play him regularly when he returns from the DL. Chris Taylor goes back to shortstop.

Closing time:

• There will be more in Tuesday's Closer Report but Poncedeleon did not beat the Reds because Bud Norris permitted an Eugenio Suarez tying home run and then two singles, a walk and another single to lose the contest. Norris is performing capably this season and could keep the closer role, but I still think Jordan Hicks, regularly hitting triple-digits with his fastball, will be the saver of games in September. I watch Hicks and still cannot understand why he does not get more strikeouts. He gets a ton of ground balls. The whiffs are coming, so are the saves.

W2W4:

<strike></strike>• The last time we saw Seattle Mariners lefty James Paxton he was giving up home runs and being pulled in the first inning against the Angels with back stiffness. Paxton is supposed to face the Giants on Tuesday and we hope he does, because he has been awesome this season and at times in the past. What he has not been is durable. The window to trade him for a monster haul in fantasy could end tonight if he leaves hurt again.

• Boston Red Sox lefty Drew Pomeranz also comes off the DL for a strong matchup, this time against the Orioles. Pomeranz last pitched in May. His season numbers are scary bad, but he has strikeout upside and run support should not be an issue. Pomeranz is also available in nearly 90 percent of ESPN standard leagues, which seems ridiculous. One could easily make the case for him over Hamels, and I basically recommended Hamels earlier.

• New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez should remain rostered in all leagues but he did not show well on Monday at the plate, running the bases or defensively. His batting average is .188 -- 90 points worse than last season. Sanchez has to hit at some point, but his failure to run hard to first base in the ninth tells me he is still dealing with a sore groin. Do not be surprised if he is back on the DL any day now.<strike></strike>
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[HacheMan]

Why Ervin Santana is 'OK' and that's valuable

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INISDER

I waited as long as I could -- or felt I could -- for ​

Minnesota Twins

right-hander ​

Ervin Santana

in one of my leagues in which I just happen to need starting pitching. After all, it is the final week of July. Some of us have more patience than others do or perhaps in this case simply have more injuries to key fantasy players than most and need the space. I wanted to wait longer for Santana after stealing him in the final round of a draft, because the 35-year-old finished last season -- wait for it -- as fantasy's No. 12 starting pitcher on the Player Rater. Yep, ​

Ervin Santana

thrived and edged out ​

Justin Verlander

, ​

Jacob deGrom

and myriad others for total value, though the achievement is mainly volume-based. So what?

Santana, who won 16 games with a 3.28 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and reasonable strikeout total only due to hurling more innings than every other pitcher except for Boston Red Sox lefty Chris Sale, underwent surgery on his right middle finger in February, and we knew he would miss some part of the season. Turns out, he missed 99 games of it, as he is on the schedule -- and schedules do change; see Paxton, James from Tuesday -- to make the Wednesday afternoon start at Toronto. Some of you might not read this blog entry until after Santana debuts. That is OK, because in a way, how Santana performs Wednesday should not reflect on the future value, whether he does well or poorly. All we need to see is health.

We know what Santana is, and while he certainly is not Verlander or deGrom, he is OK. Sometimes being OK is OK enough for many fantasy managers. When I cut Santana for some fill-in hitter that I simply cannot recall and watched in silent horror as another contending team snatched him up, I thought about the day Santana would finally pitch in another regular-season game and toss seven innings of three-run ball for my most bitter of fantasy foes. Why couldn't I be more patient? he wonders online. Well, I simply wasn't. I will probably be fine. In addition, I do recall when I cut Santana, roughly a month ago, being scared by his struggles on his rehab assignment. The final rehab ERA of 3.72 across three levels of the minors tells only part of the story, as he could not regain typical velocity. Does the story really matter anymore?

Santana used to be an interesting fantasy hurler with the Los Angeles Angels, though he would suffer from odd year-to-year inconsistency that drove his dynasty managers batty. They would tire of the act, and the next year Santana would thrive again. Who else could win 16 games with other useful stats but post an ERA on the wrong side of 5 twice in that five-year span? Santana moved on to Kansas City and Atlanta and did fine. He was useful, not a top-20 guy, but OK. Useful describes Santana with the Twins, though in 2017 he was clearly more than that.

I suspect Santana will be useful -- not a top-20 option -- for roughly eight to 12 starts the rest of this season, but since he is available in more than 75 percent of ESPN standard leagues, that presents opportunity. Santana is definitely out there. Do you need a useful starting pitcher? Can you cut someone sans the pending guilt? Add him to your bench and ... be patient. I am looking to see what Santana's fastball velocity is because we presume he is healthy, and this is someone who tends to start every five days, and he derives value from that, along with reasonable run prevention. Sure, we could stream all week and get Santana stats from others, but this is easier, if not a bit mundane. Sometimes mundane is, well, OK.

​

[h=2]Tuesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• J.D. Martinez, OF, Boston Red Sox: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI

• Yasmani Grandal, C, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-for-7, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Jed Lowrie, 2B, Oakland Athletics: 3-for-5, HR, 3 RBI

• Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

• Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K

Lowlights:

• Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants: 0-for-5, 4 K

• Cesar Hernandez, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies: 0-for-7, 4 K

• Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves: 4 1/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

• Shane Bieber, SP, Cleveland Indians: 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 0 BB, 2 K• Wade Davis, RP, Colorado Rockies: 1 1/3 IP, 4 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Tuesday takeaways:

​

The @Cardinals are the 1st team to have rookie starters not allow a hit over the 1st 6 innings in consecutive games since the 1964 Kansas City Athletics, via @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/DoRxPSyZel
- ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) July 25, 2018


​

• On Monday, the Cardinals enjoyed the big league debut of quirky right-hander Daniel Poncedeleon, who held the Reds hitless over seven innings and then was gone, replaced by a reliever, doomed for a no-decision, and then before anyone in the fantasy world could even add him to their teams, he was unceremoniously demoted back to Triple-A Memphis. On Tuesday, lefty Austin Gomber was summoned to replace him and naturally he too brought a no-hitter into the seventh inning, though after an oddly-timed fire alarm that soon ended. Gomber served up a Eugenio Suarez home run and earned a no-decision. By the way, the Reds hit. Three-quarters of their infield were All-Stars. Why do young Cardinals keep dominating them? Regardless, Gomber should interest fantasy managers even less than Poncedeleon, but it is unlikely that either gets much opportunity to start in the majors in 2018. Fantasy managers can look elsewhere.

• It is rare that any starting pitcher is permitted to go the distance, but Tanaka did it, needing 105 pitches to flummox the Rays in what was actually a save situation through eight innings. I was curious about whether Aroldis Chapman, who in his most recent outing almost literally could not throw a strike against the Mets (three walks, one HBP) would get the call to save it. Tanaka saved his own win. This hardly means the next outing, on the schedule for Sunday against the terrible Royals, will be just as awesome. Tanaka, however, has pitched well since coming off the DL and the usual message for him remains the same: This is a borderline top-20 fantasy starter, a strikeout guy who has to limit the home runs. He has still not topped 14 wins in a season but could this year with the massive offensive and relief support, and we came back to one overriding theme: The elbow remains untouched surgically, and as with most of us, could pop any day. His more than most.

• I am now beginning to worry that Indians rookie Shane Bieber, while possessing the stuff and control to be an excellent pitcher, is simply too hittable. He was way too hittable for the Pirates on Tuesday. I might bench him in a league or two so he can prove me wrong.

• Congrats to Texas Rangers rookie Willie Calhoun for his first big league homer of the season, second in his career. We thought Calhoun would make the Rangers out of March and hit 25 of these in 2018. He will not, of course, unless he goes wild the final nine weeks. Calhoun did not hit for much power at Triple-A, but he also did not strike out much. He will make contact. I think he hits those 25 blasts next season and perhaps double-digits this year, so reinvest in keeper formats.

• I am not the least bit worried about the baserunning exploits of either injured Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez or speedy Washington Nationals shortstop Trea Turner. Yes, Turner failed to run out a bunt on Monday. He was benched Tuesday until pinch running in the 10th inning and promptly got picked off. Turner could still lead the majors in steals. He is not a bust. He might bat sixth more often than not, but he is someone to trade for in fantasy. As for Sanchez, give him three weeks to get healthy and then he has a big final six weeks.

Injuries of note:

• I am now getting re-worried about Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant, for he has missed two of four starts with more shoulder soreness, and another DL stint seems plausible. Bryant is not the same hitter we drafted, that is for sure, and yes, if someone makes you a trade offer in a redraft league for him, treating him like a top-25 option, I do it. This is not like Jonathan Schoop resurrecting his season. Bryant is clearly not healthy.

• James Paxton is also clearly not healthy, as he was supposed to come off the DL and dominate the Giants on Tuesday, but his back stiffened up and now those who activated him in weekly leagues are going to get no stats for the week. Paxton will try again for Monday versus Houston. Good luck. I would try to trade him as well. You cannot trade everyone, but this is a value game and Paxton has a history of getting hurt.

Closing time:

• The Yankees and Orioles completed a trade for lefty Zach Britton, with a prospect return that beats what the Mets got for Jeurys Familia, but still, it is not great. No fantasy superstars lurking here. The Yankees will dump Britton into seventh-inning work. He will not earn saves. Orioles manager Buck Showalter again went curiously with struggling right-hander Brad Brach for the save, even though he has been terrible. Perhaps the team is showcasing him. Regardless, Mychal Givens remains a possibility for saves whether Brach sticks around or not.

• We cannot complain about our closers rarely being relied upon to pitch a second inning and then whine about Colorado's Wade Davis getting tuned up in the 10th inning on Tuesday. It happens. As long as Davis is not hurt, he gets saves. Nobody thought he would post a sub-2.00 ERA at Coors Field anyway.

W2W4:

• Much of Wednesday's action takes place, weather permitting, during the day, so get those lineups in. I will be watching, among other things in the Dodgers-Phillies tilt (thank you for everything, Chase), to see how rookie right-hander Walker Buehler performs. He has not started in the majors in 12 days. This could be an ace in a year or two.


• Arizona's Robbie Ray is not someone to be sent to fantasy free agency, but we have to be concerned this is going to be a lost season. He fanned only two Rockies in his most recent outing. His season ERA is 5.37, his WHIP 1.51. Oh, Ray is missing bats most of the time, and the Cubs might be sans Bryant and Javier Baez Wednesday, but still, he needs to perform better.

• I cannot get the least bit interested in Chicago White Sox right-hander James Shields, even when he does pitch well. Can he overcome the Fighting Trouts and Ohtanis on Wednesday? Shields has kind of been all or nothing over the past month, and that is scary. That is not what Anibal Sanchez has done for Atlanta. But watch it anyway.
​

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[HacheMan]

What another injury means for Stephen Strasburg's fantasy value

​

Eric Karabell
ESPN INSIDER

It has always been a bit of a buyer-beware situation with Washington Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg in that an actual full season of starts was not among the likely possibilities. Excellent numbers for the starts he makes, however, were. Strasburg is back on the disabled list with what the team calls a pinched nerve in his neck, and the pitcher might be pinching the proverbial last nerve of fantasy managers, too. After all, this latest (and new) malady might reflect more connected issues with Strasburg's recent shoulder woes and is a terrible sign for the final two months of this season. We cannot give reliable information as to when start No. 15 of this season will occur because I doubt even the Nationals know.

<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>What a shame, because the Nationals still, in the final week of July, have more losses than wins and the main cause of their third-place situation is not Bryce Harper or Daniel Murphy or the rookie manager or an injured closer. It is not all Strasburg, of course, but the Nationals' rotation is saddled with a 4.04 ERA for the season, and sans ace Max Scherzer that figure is 4.56. That is bad. It is nice that right-hander Tanner Roark spun his best game of the season to top sputtering Milwaukee on Wednesday but replacing Strasburg with journeyman lefty Tommy Milone is a major step backward for a team expected to win the NL East going away. Now the Nationals might simply be going away.


Fantasy managers can do a lot better than Milone and there will be more about free agent pickups in Thursday's weekly column on the topic, but let us focus in on Strasburg: I have actually been defending him over the years because from 2012 to 2017 he averaged 28 starts per season. It is not what Scherzer does, but that is not terrible, either, especially when it comes with elite strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. I blogged about Minnesota Twins right-hander Ervin Santana on Wednesday and how his numbers are propped by volume. Strasburg is not truly the opposite, because we can live with an average of 168 innings per season, but when he pitches, he tends to perform at a high level.

I am no Stephania Bell, but I know that shoulder problems can actually be worse than elbow ones for severity and for clarity. Brewers lefty Brent Suter tore his UCL over the weekend and there was clarity. He is done for a calendar year. With a pitching shoulder, one never really knows, and yes I am presuming that Strasburg's shoulder, while technically not the impetus for this DL stint, remains a concern. Strasburg will not pitch the rest of the month and perhaps a lot more. If the Nationals know, they are not telling, but fantasy managers can decide how they feel about things.

It would be silly to declare unilaterally that we have had enough of this. Strasburg was the No. 24 selection in ESPN average live drafts, fifth among starters. He was the first starting pitcher chosen after the top tier, before everyone realized Yankees right-hander Luis Severino, Astros right-handers Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola and Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer offered the same stats sans injury concerns. Whatever. You have to keep Strasburg rostered. You also have to offer skepticism that he makes more than a handful of starts the rest of the season, and reconsider his place among the top-10 starters for 2019.

After all, this season was the first time Los Angeles Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw started to get docked in the rankings for all his missed outings, which by the way have continued. Mets right-hander Noah Syndergaard also deserves similar treatment. These fellows rarely disappoint when they take the mound, but they simply do not take the mound enough, and in each of the three cases, the momentum is trending in the wrong direction. These were half of the top six starters in ADP, and none has made 15 starts and none is likely to become suddenly durable next year. I rarely invest in pitchers like these, opting for sluggers early and often, and adding pitchers later. OK, so perhaps I will not win the strikeouts category, but I also can sift through the free agent pitchers with a different mindset, that I constantly need to replace injured options.​

[h=2]Wednesday recap[/h]

Box scores

Highlights:

• Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI

• Khris Davis, OF, Oakland Athletics: 2-for-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI

• Mitch Garver, C, Minnesota Twins: 4-for-6, HR, 5 RBI

• Tanner Roark, SP, Washington Nationals: 8 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 11 K

• Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 10 K

Lowlights:

• Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: 0-for-4, 4 K

• Eric Thames, 1B/OF, Milwaukee Brewers: 0-for-4, 4 K


• Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals: 5 2/3 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 2 BB, 6 K

• Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: 4 2/3 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K

• Freddy Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers: 6 IP, 4 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 7 K

Wednesday takeaways:


• The Angels toyed with White Sox right-hander James Shields and reliever Chris Volstad for four home runs and 11 runs overall, so perhaps we should not get too excited, but a few things remain interesting here. For one, Pujols stole his first base of the season, giving him a rare "combo meal" from Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast fame (homer and steal in the same game). Pujols is not suddenly fast or even 100 percent healthy, but he and infielder Luis Valbuena, also not a speedster, exacted a double steal in the fourth inning. Pujols is not likely to steal bases on his own. In fact, a few minutes later the White Sox doubled him off third base on a Jose Briceno line drive to shortstop. Still, Pujols slugged his homer 430 feet. He ranks 20th among first basemen on the Player Rater, ahead of Mitch Moreland, Justin Smoak, Joey Gallo and Eric Hosmer, among others. Even in standard leagues, the case is feasible to add him. As for Ohtani, hitting second in this game, he also struck out three times. He is the No. 47 overall option on the Player Rater, but it is misleading; he got to pitch. He might not get to pitch again this year. I would take his homers this week against poor Chicago pitching as a chance to sell high.


• The Tampa Bay Rays sold high on a pair of right-handers, sending Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Andriese to the Red Sox and Diamondbacks, respectively. Eovaldi is the one fantasy managers want, as he boasts a top-5 WHIP since his season debut 10 outings ago (0.98) along with nearly a strikeout per inning. The Red Sox score many runs, so if Eovaldi pitches well, he should win games. Eovaldi, slated to debut for his new team this weekend against the Twins, remains available in more than 60 percent of standard leagues. That seems low to me, although health is generally an issue. Let us be positive! As for Andriese, even those in NL-only formats need not pay much attention, as there does not appear to be an open rotation spot.

• Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler pitch

ed fairly well in Philadelphia, allowing a legit Rhys Hoskins home run through four innings and little else. Then things fell apart, as he found the struggling bat of Scott Kingery for an odd opposite-field home run, put a few men on base and someone else allowed three of them to score. Buehler should remain in the rotation and of all the rookie pitchers this is the one with ace potential.

• As somewhat predicted, Ervin Santana allowed three runs in his long-awaited season debut but did not get to the sixth inning. He went five innings. Santana also was barely cracking 90 mph with his fastball, which is a big problem and a continuation of struggles on his rehab assignment. Santana averaged 89.3 mph, according to Fangraphs, with his fastball on Wednesday. Last season, he averaged 92.9 mph. Not to go against my comments in Wednesday's blog, but I predict problems in the ERA and WHIP departments if Santana does not find the lost velocity, unless he has a different plan to return to reasonable top-40 starter status for fantasy managers.

Injuries of note:

• San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt hyperextended a knee beating out an infield single but tests show no structural damage. The team thinks he might miss just a few days. Of course, they probably said that last season when Belt ended up missing the final two months with a concussion. This is different, but do not be so sure a DL stint is not pending. Belt has not produced at the plate over the past month and with this news, if guys like Pujols, C.J. Cron and Kendrys Morales available in your league, I would opt for any of them.

• Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker is going to be a relevant fantasy option in time for his plate discipline and approach will translate to a strong batting average and at least 20 home runs. For now, however, a DL stint due to shoulder soreness is a likely outcome for a team going nowhere. Winker is going to be among my sleepers for 2019. I am already calling it.

Closing time:

• Brad Hand saved the Bauer win by recording four outs against the Pirates, but then again, the lead went from 2-0 to 4-0 while he was in there so Cody Allen was not needed for the "save." OK, really, are managers still managing to the utterly ridiculous save rule? Even really good managers like Terry Francona? How silly. Many people think Hand is the closer now and I suppose he might be, but I think it is unequivocally Allen. I think if that game was 2-0 then Allen was getting summoned. Perhaps Allen would have blown the lead. The point is, add Hand if you like because yes, he might be the closer. But I do not think anything changed. If that lead was 2-0 or 3-0, it was Allen's save.

• The Mets actually won a game and Robert Gsellman did not save it. Anthony Swarzak did. Gsellman pitched in the seventh inning, while Swarzak handled the final two frames. OK, so nothing makes sense there, but I do think presuming Gsellman gets all the saves was obviously wrong. I would still roster him over Swarzak but I do not see another 10 Mets saves for the final nine weeks, so perhaps avoiding this bullpen is the most proper course of action.

W2W4:

• The Pirates are lucky enough to host the Mets but will outfielder Starling Marte be among the starters? Marte left Wednesday's contest after a hit by a pitch on the hand and the team has made no statement on availability. We always want our players active, unless they are going to hurt us statistically. Brandon Nimmo was great until his plunking on the hand and now he is worth ignoring. Marte is a top-10 outfielder. We want him playing.

<strike></strike>ed fairly well in Philadelphia, allowing a legit Rhys Hoskins home run through four innings and little else. Then things fell apart, as he found the struggling bat of Scott Kingery for an odd opposite-field home run, put a few men on base and someone else allowed three of them to score. Buehler should remain in the rotation and of all the rookie pitchers this is the one with ace potential.

• As somewhat predicted, Ervin Santana allowed three runs in his long-awaited season debut but did not get to the sixth inning. He went five innings. Santana also was barely cracking 90 mph with his fastball, which is a big problem and a continuation of struggles on his rehab assignment. Santana averaged 89.3 mph, according to Fangraphs, with his fastball on Wednesday. Last season, he averaged 92.9 mph. Not to go against my comments in Wednesday's blog, but I predict problems in the ERA and WHIP departments if Santana does not find the lost velocity, unless he has a different plan to return to reasonable top-40 starter status for fantasy managers.

Injuries of note:

• San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt hyperextended a knee beating out an infield single but tests show no structural damage. The team thinks he might miss just a few days. Of course, they probably said that last season when Belt ended up missing the final two months with a concussion. This is different, but do not be so sure a DL stint is not pending. Belt has not produced at the plate over the past month and with this news, if guys like Pujols, C.J. Cron and Kendrys Morales available in your league, I would opt for any of them.

• Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker is going to be a relevant fantasy option in time for his plate discipline and approach will translate to a strong batting average and at least 20 home runs. For now, however, a DL stint due to shoulder soreness is a likely outcome for a team going nowhere. Winker is going to be among my sleepers for 2019. I am already calling it.

Closing time:

• Brad Hand saved the Bauer win by recording four outs against the Pirates, but then again, the lead went from 2-0 to 4-0 while he was in there so Cody Allen was not needed for the "save." OK, really, are managers still managing to the utterly ridiculous save rule? Even really good managers like Terry Francona? How silly. Many people think Hand is the closer now and I suppose he might be, but I think it is unequivocally Allen. I think if that game was 2-0 then Allen was getting summoned. Perhaps Allen would have blown the lead. The point is, add Hand if you like because yes, he might be the closer. But I do not think anything changed. If that lead was 2-0 or 3-0, it was Allen's save.

• The Mets actually won a game and Robert Gsellman did not save it. Anthony Swarzak did. Gsellman pitched in the seventh inning, while Swarzak handled the final two frames. OK, so nothing makes sense there, but I do think presuming Gsellman gets all the saves was obviously wrong. I would still roster him over Swarzak but I do not see another 10 Mets saves for the final nine weeks, so perhaps avoiding this bullpen is the most proper course of action.

W2W4:

• The Pirates are lucky enough to host the Mets but will outfielder Starling Marte be among the starters? Marte left Wednesday's contest after a hit by a pitch on the hand and the team has made no statement on availability. We always want our players active, unless they are going to hurt us statistically. Brandon Nimmo was great until his plunking on the hand and now he is worth ignoring. Marte is a top-10 outfielder. We want him playing.

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• The Cubs will not have the services of ​

Kris Bryant

for at least another week as he is back on the DL, so we will check out the team's lineup for the weekend series at St. Louis. On Thursday, the opponent is Arizona's ​

Zack Godley

, one of the extreme walkers in the game. He is not ​

Tyler Chatwood

, whom he faces Thursday, but get ready to watch pitchers that have no idea where the baseball heads. We hope no baseballs hit anyone's head. At this point neither Godley nor Chatwood should be anywhere near your active lineups. Look for call-up David Bote to be an intriguing contributor in place of Bryant for deeper formats.​

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