Exbookies Want To Help The Players.... Play-off Week 2..

[Ice74]

Congrats Ace and Hitman on coming up with a way too make an extra dime off of Pittsburgh, even though I think a few months of my life may have been lost watching the Steelers game, LOL...... ACE, I'm rolling with you on Philly tomorrow as the Rams showed tonight why 8-8 teams with a bad defense should not be in the playoffs.

 

[maverick2112]

Congrats on the win.........but to clarify something...........yes you did win an extra $1000 on the bet but you did have to give something up for this extra $1000

You gave up the chance to have a winner should Pittsburgh have won by 1 or 2 points........in this case it didnt matter but it could have backfired..........again congrats on the winner and on a great season............

I think if helps everyone to learn some of the little techniques they can use with teasers and moneylines........you would be suprised how little some gamblers know about these things......

I once knew a friend who had a bet on a team to win like $50,000 on a substantial favorite.......all he had to do was bet like $10,000 on the underdog ML and he would have assured himself of $40,000 or $20,000 profit........so what did he do? He left it all on the favorite and was going to win $50,000 or nothing......he won nothing.......*******

 

[ParadisePete]

Congrats on the win.........but to clarify something...........yes you did win an extra $1000 on the bet but you did have to give something up for this extra $1000

You gave up the chance to have a winner should Pittsburgh have won by 1 or 2 points

You're right. Since a win by 1 or 2 would turn a 2000 winner into a 7000 loser, he was in a sense making an extra bet. He was laying 9-1 that when they win they win by 3 or more, with no action on this "extra" bet if pitt loses outright.

Is that a good bet? I don't know. It was today!

-Pete

 

[petre]

You're right. Since a win by 1 or 2 would turn a 2000 winner into a 7000 loser, he was in a sense making an extra bet. He was laying 9-1 that when they win they win by 3 or more, with no action on this "extra" bet if pitt loses outright.

Is that a good bet? I don't know. It was today!

-Pete

that was exactly my point, if ace "knew" pitt-9, he should have won 7000 on jets since he doesn't have to lay vig...

other than ace, who bet like ace?, without a "local"...:smoker2:

 

[petre]

You're right. Since a win by 1 or 2 would turn a 2000 winner into a 7000 loser, he was in a sense making an extra bet. He was laying 9-1 that when they win they win by 3 or more, with no action on this "extra" bet if pitt loses outright.

Is that a good bet? I don't know. It was today!

-Pete

that was exactly my point, if ace "knew" pitt-9 was too much, he should have won 7000 on jets since he doesn't have to lay vig...

other than ace, who bet like ace?, without a "local"...

 

[heart222]

I bet pitt at -2.5 on the teaser on Wed at sportingbet. It was available at 2 or 3 sites easily. There have been times that ace has been terrific but I think this was one of those games where luck is better than knowledge. sort of like the market you buy something and next day 3 guys upgrade it or something and it pops. I think we were all very lucky yesterday.
In addition to the regular hitman proposal i had pitt -2.5 over 25 and I have minn + 17 I guess I should bet phily to lock it up right?
Thanks to Ace and to Hitman for their help i think we were all very lucky

 

[ACE-ACE]

that was exactly my point, if ace "knew" pitt-9 was too much, he should have won 7000 on jets since he doesn't have to lay vig...

other than ace, who bet like ace?, without a "local"...

THANK FOR POSTING AGAIN...MAYBE I SHOULD OF SAID THERE NO VALUE BETTING PITT AT 8 1/2 OR 9....NO ONE "KNEW" IT WAS TOO MUCH....
I DO NOT PAY VIG ON 6 POINT TEASER....BUT I DO LIKE EVERYBODY ELES PAY VIR ON SIDES AND OVER AND UNDER BETS.....

I RESPECT YOUR OPINION....BUT THIS IS THE WAY I MADE MY BET..SO RESPECT MY OPINION......I GOT 7 E-MAIL THANKING ME FOR POSTING THIS BET....AND I TOLD THEM ALL THE SAME......WE GOT LUCKIE.....ITS WAS A VERY CLOSE GAME......
AND OUT OF THE 18 WEEKS THAT I HAVE BEEN HERE....THIS WAS THE ODDEST BET I HAVE MADE....
I WILL TRY TO KEEP IT SIMPLE FROM NOW ON.....

ACE

 

[ACE-ACE]

I JUST DID "MY LINE" ON

ATL VE PHI.......
PHI-3

ATL VS MIN.....
ATL-6

PIT VS NE....
PIT-7

PIT VS IND..
PIT-1

SUPER BOWL

IF PIT VS PHI
PIT-9 1/2

PIT VS ATL
PIT-14

PIT VS MIN
PIT-19

NE VS PHI
NE-9 1/2

NE VS ATL
NE-2

NE VS MIN
NE-11

IND VS MIN
IND-7

IND VS ATL
IND-6 1/2

IND VS PHI
IND-9

THIS IS NOT THE LINE FOR THE GAMES...IT'S BASE ON WHAT I SEE THE LINE AS BEING...TO FIND VALUE IN THE LINE THAT THE ODDS MAKER MADE...AFTER THE NEXT TO GAMES ARE PLAYED (MIN...PHI) AND (IND....NE)....I WILL FINE TUNE IT AND POST IT MONDAY OR TUEDAY.....

ACE

 

[THE SHRINK]

ACE-ACE , Hitman, and everyone who posted in this thread.....

THANK YOU for sharing...

When I first founded this site many moons ago, this was EXACTLY what I had in mind....

Posters helping other posters BEAT THE MAN!!!

Best of Luck today,

THE SHRINK

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE-ACE , Hitman, and everyone who posted in this thread.....

THANK YOU for sharing...

When I first founded this site many moons ago, this was EXACTLY what I had in mind....

Posters helping other posters BEAT THE MAN!!!

Best of Luck today,

THE SHRINK

WE ARE ONLY GRASSHOPPER....YOU ARE THE MASTER OF THE DOGS:banger:

 

[ParadisePete]

that was exactly my point, if ace "knew" pitt-9 was too much, he should have won 7000 on jets since he doesn't have to lay vig...

other than ace, who bet like ace?, without a "local"...

Petre, I think you're putting too much emphasis on his use of the word "knew." And then your conclusion that he should take the other side does not automatically follow. For example, if I had a crystal ball that told me out of 100 games pitt would cover the 9 fifty times, and not cover fifty times, well then I absolutely KNOW that 9 is too much to lay, but it's also not enough to take. In other words, an unplayable number. And Ace decided 9 was unplayable.

As for the vig, I just checked my Millennium account. They offer even-money 6 point teasers. Hardly "Local."

-Pete

 

[ParadisePete]

He was laying 9-1 that when they win they win by 3 or more, with no action on this "extra" bet if pitt loses outright.

Is that a good bet? I don't know. It was today!

-Pete

To answer my own question I did some research this morning. Since 1994 there have been 444 games in which an 8+ favorite won the game straight up. 25 of those times they won by less than 3. So the historically "true" price is almost 17-1. So the way Ace played it is MUCH better than just playing the money line. I think Hitman constructed this bet?

-Pete

 

[THE SHRINK]

ACE-ACE,

Don't sell yourself short. I believe I told you that one of my sons truly bets your picks and respects what you do for everyone here, including me...

It is appreciated...

Thanks and good luck today,

Ken

 

[ACE-ACE]

To answer my own question I did some research this morning. Since 1994 there have been 444 games in which an 8+ favorite won the game straight up. 25 of those times they won by less than 3. So the historically "true" price is almost 17-1. So the way Ace played it is MUCH better than just playing the money line. I think Hitman constructed this bet?

-Pete

..YES HITMAN HELP ME PUT ONE MORE THOUSAND IN MY ACC.
IN YOUR RESEARCH 25 OUT OF 444 IS= 5%....THAT WHY I DID NOT TAKE THE PIT TO WIN 1 OR 2 POINT BET!!...

THANK

ACE

 

[Holysmoke+]

ace, whats your plays for today?

 

[Budman]

Ace why on your line is Pitt -14 over Atlanta yet New England only-2

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ind Vs Ne

IND VS NE.....

LINE OFF IND +105 VS NE +63.......................................IND
TIME .....IND -13 VS NE +12=........................................NE
T/O........IND 18 VS NE 27=...........................................IND
NE 7 IN THE LAST 4 GAME VS IND WITH 3=.....................IND
HOME .........................................................................NE
RECORD VS COMMON OPPONENTS NE 2-0 IND 1-1............NE

NE ..HAS WON 19 CONSECUTIVE HOME GAMES..................NE

NE HAS TO KEEP MANNING FROM GAINING RHYTHM.. THE FRONT SEVEN CAN DO AGAINST THEM TO HELP COVER UP DEFICIENCIES IN THE SECONDARY...

IND HAS TO AVOID COSTLY MISTAKES..T/O...

THIS IS A PICK-EM GAME....AND AS YOU SEE ITS TO CLOSE TO CALL FOR ME....

WEEK 15-17......

1ST HALF OF THE GAME

IND
WEEK 15......6
WEEK 16......9
WEEK 17......14

NE
WEEK 15......14
WEEK 16......13
WEEK 17......7

SO ACE ...WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU?
(THERE THAT VOICE AGAIN)
SLOW SCORING TEAM IN THE 1ST HALF OF THE GAME
NOW ADD SNOW......
20+ MPH WIND
COLD........
MIX IT TOGETHER AND WHAT DO YOU HAVE!!!

MY BET UNDER 27 (BETGUARDIAN.COM....FIVE MINS AGO) I THINK YOU WILL BE OF AT 26.5.....26......25.5.....25....

FOR $1,000.00

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace why on your line is Pitt -14 over Atlanta yet New England only-2

I CHECK IT ITS RIGHT....DIFF TEAM PLAY DIFF WITH DIFF TEAM....DID I SAY THAT RIGHT.....THIS IS THE WAY I SEE THE MATCH-UPS....ITS NOT THE REAL LINE.....BUT IT HELP TO CAP AFTER I SEE IT.....

 

[ACE-ACE]

RECAP....

TEASER
PIT-2 1/2......WIN
ATL -.1/2............$7,000.00 WIN


STL M/L...$4,000.00 TO WIN $9,850LOST
I COUNT THIS AS ONE BET

PIT AND ATL WINS............... $3,000.00 WINNER


PIT OVER 35..........................$800.00...WINNER

SMALL BET ATL -6 1/2............$500.00..WINNER

PHI -8 1/2...........................$1,000.00

IND 1ST HALF UNDER............$1,000.00



3-0 ON THE DAY +$ 4,300.00 SAT.....

 

[ACE-ACE]

AND THE LAST BET OF THE DAY SMALL BET


I SEE MORE VALUE IN TAKING IND IN THIS GAME


MY BET IS IND PICK FOR $500.00