Exbookie wants to help the players week 12

[pgcluu]

i have a question. do you track these trends for the past several wks?

after playing Ten, that team loses the next game. Jax lost to Ten last wk, they will lose again this wk.

on the other hand, before play with Ten, that team will cash money. this wk, play Det.


$2500.00 #212 Jacksonville (-2) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 23)
The Jaguars played great football for one half last week against Tennessee. I think their season is already finished as far as the postseason is concerned but they are still playing for their lives. Minnesota is not a very strong road team and they just cannot move the ball through the air. The Jags are 16-5-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points in a game and the Vikings are 1-5 ATS on the road.

 

[kungfu4life]

Ace, looking for your NFL plays this week. if posted, could you tell me what's the post #. thanks and aloha!! P.S. .......I know we're getting heavy carrying us every week.LOL

 

[ACE-ACE]

i have a question. do you track these trends for the past several wks?

some players live by them...but its just candy...I need a meal....match-up and players on players match-up...what does 1-5 years stats have to do with this year...its nice when they match the team you want to win...but...in tho year a lot of change both players and whole team.


Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

ace, looking for your nfl plays this week. If posted, could you tell me what's the post #. Thanks and aloha!! P.s. .......i know we're getting heavy carrying us every week.lol

in cfb its ark
in nfl its jax
post#35

best to you
ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

<TABLE width=800 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2><TABLE class=MasterTable_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00 style="TABLE-LAYOUT: auto; WIDTH: 100%; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; empty-cells: show" cellSpacing=0 border=0><COLGROUP><COL><COL><COL><COL></COLGROUP><THEAD><TR><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="AlertType">Alert Type</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="Date">Date</TH><TH class="GridHeader_Sunset GridHeaderOver_Sunset" scope=col UniqueName="Detail">Description</TH><TH class=GridHeader_Sunset scope=col UniqueName="name">Trigger</TH></TR></THEAD><TFOOT><TR class=GridPager_Sunset><TD colSpan=4>Change page: <INPUT class=rgPagePrev title="Previous Page" onclick="return false;" type=submit value=" " name=ctl00$ContentPlaceHolder1$gridAlerts$ctl00$ctl03$ctl01$ctl02> <INPUT class=rgPageNext title="Next Page" type=submit value=" " name=ctl00$ContentPlaceHolder1$gridAlerts$ctl00$ctl03$ctl01$ctl04>
Displaying page 1 of 5, items 1 to 50 of 210.
</TD></TR></TFOOT><TBODY><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__0 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/22 12:28 A</TD><TD>(211) 11/23 Play on OU Under Jacksonville Jaguars (41u-110)</TD><TD>Sportsbook.com (0-1,-1.00)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__1><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 10:37 P</TD><TD>(219) 11/21 NYG WR P. Burress (hamstring) quest
11/21 NYG RB B. Jacobs (knee) upgraded to prob 11/21 ARI S A. Wilson (suspension) prob
</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__2 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/21 8:40 P</TD><TD>(203) 11/23 Play on OU Under Dallas Cowboys (46.5u-107)</TD><TD>WSEX (2-0,+1.80)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__3><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 8:00 P</TD><TD>(207) 11/21 BAL WR D. Mason (shoulder) game-time decision
11/21PHI RB B. Westbrook (knee) ques</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__4 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 8:00 P</TD><TD>(205) 11/21 TB RB E. Graham (knee) out for season
11/21 TB RB C. Williams (knee) ques
11/21 DET WR C. Johnson (quadricep) prob</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__5><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 7:48 P</TD><TD>(211) 11/21 MIN DE J. Allen (shoulder) ques 11/21 JAC WR M. Jones (thigh) upgraded to prob
11/21 JAC DT J. Henderson (knee) upgraded to prob
11/21 MIN WR B. Wade (thigh) ques
</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__6 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 7:47 P</TD><TD>(105) 11/21 CIN WR C. Johnson will not play for disciplinary reasons</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__7><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 7:45 P</TD><TD>(209) 11/21 STL RB S. Jackson (quad) Out
11/21 STL OL O. Pace (knee) doubt</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__8 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:41 P</TD><TD>(225) 11/21 NO RB R. Bush (knee) ques</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__9><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:39 P</TD><TD>(221) 11/21 IND S B. Sanders (knee) ques</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__10 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:37 P</TD><TD>(217) 11/21 WAS RB C. Portis (knee) downgraded to ques
11/21 WAS WR A. Randle El (ankle) ques
11/21 WAS RB L. Betts (knee) upgraded to prob</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__11><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:35 P</TD><TD>(219) 11/21 NYG WR P. Burress (hamstring) quest
11/21 NYG RB B. Jacobs (knee) upgraded to prob 11/17 ARI S A. Wilson (suspension) ques
</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__12 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:33 P</TD><TD>(215) 11/21 DEN RB P. Hillis (shoulder) prob
11/21 DEN CB C. Bailey (groin) ques
11/21 DEN LB DJ Williams (MCL) downgraded to out
11/21 DEN RB S. Young (groin) downgraded to doubt</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__13><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:16 P</TD><TD>(211) 11/17 MIN DE J. Allen (shoulder) ques 11/21 JAC WR M. Jones (thigh) upgraded to prob
11/21 JAC DT J. Henderson (knee) upgraded to prob
11/21 MIN WR B. Wade (thigh) ques
</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__14 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:12 P</TD><TD>(205) 11/19 TB RB E. Graham (knee) out for season
11/17 TB RB C. Williams (knee) ques
11/21 DET WR C. Johnson (quadricep) prob</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__15><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/21 6:02 P</TD><TD>(203) 11/21 DAL RB F. Jones (hamstring) downgraded to out</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__16 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/21 4:27 P</TD><TD>(221) 11/23 Play on San Diego Chargers (-2.5-105)</TD><TD>ABC (13-12,-0.36)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__17><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/21 3:52 P</TD><TD>(219) 11/23 Play on Arizona Cardinals (3.5-115)</TD><TD>Olympic (11-11,-0.85)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__18 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Injury</TD><TD>11/21 7:31 A</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers - Willie Parker, Knee, questionable</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__19><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 10:01 P</TD><TD>(217) 11/23 Play on Seattle Seahawks (3.5-110)</TD><TD>Sportsbook.com (8-10,-2.70)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__20 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 5:36 P</TD><TD>(201) 11/23 Play on Miami Dolphins (0-110)</TD><TD>Skybook (11-11,-1.04)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__21><TD>Injury</TD><TD>11/20 4:58 P</TD><TD>New York Giants - Brandon Jacobs, Knee, questionable</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__22 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 4:34 P</TD><TD>(209) 11/23 Play on St. Louis Rams (9-115)</TD><TD>ThePig (34-31,-0.40)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__23><TD>Circle Game</TD><TD>11/20 4:30 P</TD><TD>(207) 11/19 BAL WR D. Mason (shoulder) game-time decision
11/20 PHI RB B. Westbrook (knee) ques</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__24 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Injury</TD><TD>11/20 3:39 P</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys - Felix Jones, Toe, IR</TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__25><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 2:01 P</TD><TD>(197) 11/23 Play on Kansas City Chiefs (3+108)</TD><TD>Skybook (11-11,-1.04)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__26 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 1:27 P</TD><TD>(219) 11/23 Play on OU Under Arizona Cardinals (49u-110)</TD><TD>SIA (4-3,+0.60)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__27 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 1:08 P</TD><TD>(225) 11/24 Play on New Orleans Saints (-2.5-103)</TD><TD>Pinnacle (10-8,+1.95)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__28 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 1:08 P</TD><TD>(221) 11/23 Play on San Diego Chargers (-1.5-115)</TD><TD>Pinnacle (10-8,+1.95)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__29 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 12:11 P</TD><TD>(217) 11/23 Play on Seattle Seahawks (3.5-110)</TD><TD>Pinnacle (10-8,+1.95)</TD></TR><TR class=GridRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__30 style="FONT-SIZE: xx-small; HEIGHT: 20px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Smart $</TD><TD>11/20 11:56 A</TD><TD>(201) 11/23 Play on Miami Dolphins (0-110)</TD><TD>BetOnline (5-3,+1.42)</TD></TR><TR class=GridAltRow_Sunset id=ctl00_ContentPlaceHolder1_gridAlerts_ctl00__31 style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: lightgreen"><TD>Steam Move</TD><TD>11/20 11:18 A</TD><TD>(201) 11/23 Play on New England Patriots 1</TD><TD>Bet Jamaica (15-10,+3.3)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

Ace-Ace puts a lot of hard work into his sheets and analysis, but let me tell you something, all of this ATS stuff is meaningless and is somewhat twisted....doesn't really mean a damn thing except to stat geeks...point spreads change which means winners for some and losers for some...good luck this week Ace.

 

[buddha00man]

:toast:

 

[ACE-ACE]

public bets not money
................................bets...side..m/l...o/u
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145686 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145686', event)"><td id=score width=50>
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>195 houston texans
196 cleveland browns

</td><td id=bets width=45>6761

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>31%
69%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>89%
11%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>59%
41%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145689 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145689', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>197 buffalo bills
198 kansas city chiefs

</td><td id=bets width=45>8926

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>10%
90%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145692 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145692', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>199 new york jets
200 tennessee titans

</td><td id=bets width=45>17163

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>92%
8%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>83%
17%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145695 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145695', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>201 new england patriots
202 miami dolphins

</td><td id=bets width=45>18522

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>86%
14%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>n/a
n/a

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>68%
32%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145698 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145698', event)"><td id=score width=50>
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>203 san francisco 49ers
204 dallas cowboys

</td><td id=bets width=45>18456

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>53%
47%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>77%
23%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>67%
33%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145701 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145701', event)"><td id=score width=50>
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>205 tampa bay buccaneers
206 detroit lions

</td><td id=bets width=45>12384

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>57%
43%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>38%
62%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>81%
19%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145704 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145704', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>207 philadelphia eagles
208 baltimore ravens

</td><td id=bets width=45>13797

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>42%
58%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>n/a
n/a

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>56%
44%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145707 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145707', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>209 chicago bears
210 st. Louis rams

</td><td id=bets width=45>6114

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>57%
43%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>74%
26%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145710 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145710', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
1:00p

</td><td id=team width=135>211 minnesota vikings
212 jacksonville jaguars

</td><td id=bets width=45>11474

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>38%
62%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>77%
23%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>80%
20%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145713 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145713', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
4:15p

</td><td id=team width=135>213 carolina panthers
214 atlanta falcons

</td><td id=bets width=45>11843

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>61%
39%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>11%
89%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>69%
31%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145716 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145716', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
4:05p

</td><td id=team width=135>215 oakland raiders
216 denver broncos

</td><td id=bets width=45>12754

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>39%
61%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>47%
53%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>67%
33%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145719 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145719', event)"><td id=score width=50>
4:15p

</td><td id=team width=135>217 washington redskins
218 seattle seahawks

</td><td id=bets width=45>12305

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>75%
25%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>43%
57%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>47%
53%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145722 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145722', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/23
4:15p

</td><td id=team width=135>219 new york giants
220 arizona cardinals

</td><td id=bets width=45>17730

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>81%
19%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>92%
8%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>78%
22%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145725 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #e2e2e2" onclick="testhit('e145725', event)"><td id=score width=50>
8:15p

</td><td id=team width=135>221 indianapolis colts
222 san diego chargers

</td><td id=bets width=45>18826

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>69%
31%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>97%
3%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>53%
47%

</td></tr></tbody></table>
<table id=gridtable><tbody><tr id=e145734 ondblclick=highlightrow(this) style="background-color: #ffffff" onclick="testhit('e145734', event)"><td id=score width=50>11/24
8:35p

</td><td id=team width=135>225 green bay packers
226 new orleans saints

</td><td id=bets width=45>13110

</td><td id=spreadpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>78%
22%

</td><td id=mlpct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>90%
10%

</td><td id=oupct style="background-color: #ccff66" width=40>73%
27%

</td></tr></tbody></table>

only one total that is under...most weeks the public is all over's
update on sunday:toast:aa

posted this 3 days ago and only a few change over 7% moves...must be a slow week!!!

Clev over was 59%,,,now under 54%..............move of 13%
sf was 53% now dall is 55%........................................8%
over in the dal game was 67%....now 76%.....................9%
tb over was 81%....drop to 66%...................................15%
chi was 57%........now 66%............................................9%
gb was 78%..........now 66%...........................................12%

thats how the betting has been going!

Ace

 

[ACE-ACE]

11/22/2008


DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH LINESMAKER NICK BOGDANOVICH
WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEK’S NFL ACTION
It’s amazing how quickly the football season has moved along. This weekend features the final big Saturday of college action. NFL teams are already playing their 11th games of the season…and everyone’s had their bye already.
The playoffs will be here before you know it!
Time for our weekly look at what the sharps in Las Vegas and Reno are thinking about this weekend’s NFL games. As always, matchups are presented in rotation order.
HOUSTON AT CLEVELAND: There really hasn’t been much action in this one. Some Houston money came in when it was announced that Brady Quinn had an injured finger. Houston’s a tough team to love because their defense is so bad. Also, they’re in a letdown spot off a tough divisional battle at Indianapolis. And, it’s a warm weather team playing in cold weather. So…this isn’t a spot where the sharps are going to step in big on the dog. Nobody’s playing the favorite because the Cleveland defense looked so bad Monday Night, and now Quinn is hurt. We might see some Houston action from sharps Sunday morning if the weather forecast is mild. Otherwise, this will probably be a pass. Look for Under money if the forecast is bad, even with two bad defenses.
BUFFALO AT KANSAS CITY: There’s been a little bit of early money on Buffalo at -3. I’m now seeing -120 if you want to lay the field goal. It takes a lot to move a game off of three in the NFL. My understanding is that many sharps will come in on the underdog if the number goes up to -3.5 for the Bills. Will the public drive it up that high? It’s tough to ask that when you’re talking about a slumping team that just lost on Monday Night. I don’t think this is going to be a heavy action game for the sportsbooks either. The total has come down a tick from 44 to 43.5
NY JETS AT TENNESSEE: Not much action yet on this one either. Tennessee is pretty much -5.5 across the board. I’m interested to see how the public bets this one over the weekend. They tend to play a ton of favorites, but they like betting on Brett Favre. This one could move in either direction. A number like 5.5 is fairly dead. There’s no reason to act early. I think the sharps, who tend to like underdogs, are waiting to see what the public does. If the line goes up, sharps will happily take +6 or +7. If the line starts coming down, we may see a bandwagon effect that brings this number down closer to a field goal. The total has dropped a tick from 41 to 40.5.
NEW ENGLAND AT MIAMI: The Patriots opened at -1, but the game is now pick-em or Miami -1 in most places. I was a little surprised by that move given the revenge spot for the Patriots. It’s really not that big a line move since there aren’t many ties in the NFL (that’s what Donovan McNabb tells me). The total has gone up from 41 to 42. Numbers have typically been going down in Miami games this year…so that’s a very interesting early move. I’d put more weight on that than your normal one point move if you know what I mean.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DALLAS: Early money here on the dog and Under. The opener was +11 and I’m seeing +10.5 or +10 in most places. A lot of old school sharps are just cleaning up with double digit dogs this year. Cincinnati didn’t get there Thursday night. Almost all the others have all season. Sharps didn’t expect to see a number higher than +11, so they acted early. The total has come down from 48 to 46.5, probably because the Dallas offense struggled last week…and Mike Singletary has the 49ers playing defense.
TAMPA BAY AT DETROIT: Early money here on the underdog as well. Detroit opened at +9 and is now down to +8. Daunte Culpepper impressed some people with his cover at Carolina last week. The theory is…if Detroit can lose by just 9 at Carolina, they can play closer at home with Tampa Bay. Note though that the drop to -8 put the game in “basic strategy” teaser range. Many sharps will be moving the Bucs down to -2 in two-team teasers. The sportsbooks could get really hurt here if Tampa Bay wins by 3-7 points.
PHILADELPHIA AT BALTIMORE: Another of the dead games so far, with the number sitting at pick-em and 39.5 all week. Remember, a dead game during the week doesn’t necessarily mean the sharps aren’t interested. It often means the game is sitting on a relatively meaningless number (or non-number in this case), and there’s no reason to act quickly. Whoever you like, you might as well wait to see if you can get something better over the weekend. I can tell you that Donovan McNabb isn’t a favorite with sharps. Last week’s overtime screw up has been a topic of discussion out here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see sharp money on Baltimore come Sunday. Bad weather could trigger a flood of Under money too with these defenses.
CHICAGO AT ST. LOUIS: Just like in Tampa Bay/Detroit, the line opened around 9 and is now down to the road favorite by 8. So, we have another game sitting in the teaser window…and another game where the sportsbooks want to avoid a finish in the 3-7 range. Sportsbooks operators have to root for some crazy things sometimes. They’ll want blowouts one way or the other here…and the offshore places could really need the underdog upsets because they’re more exposed to teasers. Nevada charges a premium on teasers to discourage action.
MINNESOTA AT JACKSONVILLE: Early money on Jacksonville at -1 in this one. I’m now seeing -2 in most places. There are some indicators that the line could keep going up. I’m not sure why there’s love for the Jaguars given their recent play. It’s likely to be anti-Minnesota money given their second straight game in Florida. That’s a long way from home. My SMART MONEY GAME OF THE YEAR was on Tampa Bay over Minnesota last week. So…it makes sense the smart money would be against the Vikings here regardless of the opponent. (Be sure to sign up for my NFL UPSET OF THE MONTH this Sunday!). The total is up a tick from 40 to 40.5
CAROLINA AT ATLANTA: The move here has been on the total, lifting from 41.5 up to 42.5 or 43. We haven’t seen many big totals moves early this week. That’s a change from what’s been happening recently. I think many of the guys are waiting for weather reports. There’s usually a chance for rain in Florida this time of year, and poor weather in the midsection and further north. The rule now is…if you like the Under up North act quickly, because weather will only help you and will cause the line to drop. If you like the Over indoors, act quickly, because the public will only drive it higher over the weekend. The sharps acted quickly on the dome Over here.
OAKLAND AT DENVER: Early action on the dog here, as Oakland +10 fell to +9. That’s some old school action on a double digit dot…plus the bonus of having a divisional dog in a rivalry game at more than a touchdown. The Raiders did cover at Miami last week, and almost covered against Carolina prior to that. If weather becomes a factor a mile high, that’s only going to help the dog too. Jay Cutler of Denver is turnover prone in the best of conditions. The sharps like the dog here, but the money stopped coming in at +9. Bear that in mind.
WASHINGTON AT SEATTLE: The total dropped two points from 42 down to 40. That’s probably because the Washington offense is in a slump, and because Matt Hasselbeck returned to the Seattle lineup last week and didn’t play well. We’ve seen some money on Washington at -3 with extra juice. Some places increased the juice. I have seen a 3.5 out there. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the sharps come in on the dog Sunday if 3.5 or better is readily available. This game is a lot like Buffalo/Kansas City in that regard.
NY GIANTS AT ARIZONA: Not much action here. I think this is a case where the sharps want the home dog, and they’re waiting to see if the public drives the line up over a field goal on Sunday. The public has been betting the Giants heavily, and making a fortune doing it! This is a classic home dog spot for sharps though. They don’t often see winning teams getting points at home. They’ll gladly take those points every time. They haven’t acted yet because they’re hoping to get more than 3 by kickoff. If not, they’ll accept the 3 thinking they’ve still got the best of it. This is a late game Sunday, so I expect a ton of action before kickoff. It will easily be the most bet of the late afternoon starts. The early week non-action is the calm before the storm.
INDIANAPOLIS AT SAN DIEGO: The total here has come down from 51 to 49, continuing a trend we’ve seen all year for early Under money in San Diego games. Those bettors have been cleaning up, so you think the lines would have adjusted by now! San Diego/Pittsburgh never had a chance to go Over. Many Chargers games haven’t. I’m sensing more affection for the Colts than the Chargers on the team side. Everyone remembers that game last year on this field where the Colts made a million mistakes and lost a game they should have won. Sportsbooks are watching this one closely. The public is prone to take Peyton Manning as a dog. If the sharps and squares line up on the same side, that’s usually a disaster for Nevada. That happened two Sundays ago when the Giants were getting a field goal at Philadelphia. The books didn’t want to move off the three, and they were way overexposed in a game they ended up losing. This game is setting up the same way to this point. GREEN BAY AT NEW ORLEANS: The total has dropped here from 53.5 to 51.5. That’s an odd move for an indoor game with good quarterbacks. There are some sharps who bet Under at any total in the 50’s because that trend has been working the past few years. It’s kind of like the guys who take all the double digit dogs without worrying about handicapping. They figure there’s an edge, so just play all the big totals Under and hope for the best over the long haul. It’s been working, so why not? That’s their approach anyway. Nothing yet on the team side. Green Bay +2.5 is in the teaser window, meaning a lot of guys will move them up to +8.5 and tag them with favorites like Tampa Bay and Chicago where the teasers cross both the 3 and the 7.

 

[nytewalker6]

ACE
i saw that totals formula that u and sammy developed for college yesterday. i used it for nfl today and went 3-0. let me know if this was done right.
NE 346.4 miami 353.5 = 699.9 - 325 = 374.9/7.5 = 50 total @ 42 +8

philly 363.8 balt 318.3 = 682.1 - 325= 357.1/7.5= 47.6 total @39 +8.6

bears 314.6 rams 271 = 585.6 - 325 = 260.6/7.5= 34.7 total @44 -9.25

NE over 42 winner
philly over 39 winner with some luck
bears under 44 winner

i got the giants game to be +10.5 so i played that too.
please let me know if this looks right or did i just get lucky.
thanks again for all your input

nyte

 

[JWinner17]

Any thought on the Chargers tonight??? I think they take care of business on the COLTS tonight... They are good at home!!!

 

[ElTaino]

Any thought on the Chargers tonight??? I think they take care of business on the COLTS tonight... They are good at home!!!

i know this is ace's thread, but just as what ace calls candy, look at the ats numbers this season for teams that play the previous week against the steelers. :nono5: im on the colts, but thats just me

 

[isellgel]

i know this is ace's thread, but just as what ace calls candy, look at the ats numbers this season for teams that play the previous week against the steelers. :nono5: im on the colts, but thats just me

curious what info your seeing to believe Colts are a lean tonite? info i see, tells me S.D. is the lean.
if you could put the post #, thanks.

 

[GBPACKERFAN]

curious what info your seeing to believe Colts are a lean tonite? info i see, tells me S.D. is the lean.
if you could put the post #, thanks.

Just take the guessing/wondering/debating part of the equation out of it = flip a quarter.

 

[ElTaino]

curious what info your seeing to believe Colts are a lean tonite? info i see, tells me S.D. is the lean.
if you could put the post #, thanks.

of all teams that play against the steelers, the next week they are
4-11-1 ats last year, 1-8 ats so fat this year.

just numbers

 

[ElTaino]

Just take the guessing/wondering/debating part of the equation out of it = flip a quarter.

might be your best bet. san diego is a phony team with a phony coach and indy is horrible on the road

 

[ACE-ACE]

WHEN 3-3 ON THE DAY...BUT PUT THE MONEY ON THE ONE THAT LOST!...FINE LINE MAKING ATL THE INVESTMENT PLAY VS JAX...THAT WAS ON ME....SORRY...

3-4 ON THE WEEK -2755...OR 2.7 UNITS

Past on mondays game...on to week 13

Ace

 

[nytewalker6]

ACE
can u answer question on post #51
and the giants over won also with a value of +10.5
so 4-0 on the day

thankx

nyte

 

[ACE-ACE]

ACE
i saw that totals formula that u and sammy developed for college yesterday. i used it for nfl today and went 3-0. let me know if this was done right.
NE 346.4 miami 353.5 = 699.9 - 325 = 374.9/7.5 = 50 total @ 42 +8

philly 363.8 balt 318.3 = 682.1 - 325= 357.1/7.5= 47.6 total @39 +8.6

bears 314.6 rams 271 = 585.6 - 325 = 260.6/7.5= 34.7 total @44 -9.25

NE over 42 winner
philly over 39 winner with some luck
bears under 44 winner

i got the giants game to be +10.5 so i played that too.
please let me know if this looks right or did i just get lucky.
thanks again for all your input

nyte

you got it...good job:toast:AA

 

[chelseafan1]

the JAX was the pain loss..good picks with rest ACE