I second this.The way he finds this over/under is based on total yards per game.
For NCAA its the total yards per game of all 120 teams/ 120 teams = average yards per game for all 120 teams
Then you take both teams playing average yards per game and add them together. Subtract the average ypg for all 120 teams and then divide by 7.5. (you will have to ask them what this number is). If what he gets is a +17 point value then he makes a play. So Tulsa is predicted at 102 but is really 79.5. So he plays it.
After following a few weeks im pretty sure this is how Samy gets his over/under plays for NCAA. Correct me if Im wrong because then I'm screwing up to lol.
For NCAA its the total yards per game of all 120 teams/ 120 teams = average yards per game for all 120 teams
Then you take both teams playing average yards per game and add them together. Subtract the average ypg for all 120 teams and then divide by 7.5. (you will have to ask them what this number is). If what he gets is a +17 point value then he makes a play. So Tulsa is predicted at 102 but is really 79.5. So he plays it.
After following a few weeks im pretty sure this is how Samy gets his over/under plays for NCAA. Correct me if Im wrong because then I'm screwing up to lol.
MY CFB ARE UP IN THE CFB FORUM
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6010540#post6010540
NEXT WILL BE MY NFL PICKS
BACK IN 10 MIN'S
http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?p=6010540#post6010540
NEXT WILL BE MY NFL PICKS
BACK IN 10 MIN'S
$2000.00 #402 Atlanta (-6) over Denver (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
We have ridden the Falcons a lot this year and I just do not trust this Denver defense to be able to stop the Atlanta ground game. The Falcons are riding some momentum off a big win at home over New Orleans last week. Their secondary played well against Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered passing attack and I think they can do the same against Jay Cutler and Co. Cutler has been making shaky decisions with the ball and I just don’t think that this Broncos team is as good as their record indicates. Denver is 4-12 ATS on the road and is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 overall.
$2000.00 #428 Washington (+1.5) over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
Even out of a bye week the Cowboys are still overrated. I think that there are some fundamental issues with Dallas that can’t be fixed in an extra week and I don’t think they should be favored on the road here. The underdog is 20-6 ATS in this series, the home team is 5-1 SU, and the Redskins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series. This is a rivalry series where the underdog and the home team have performed very well. Here we are backing a home dog. I think it’s great value.
$800.00 ‘Under’ 44.5 St. Louis at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
Four straight in this series have stayed under the total and four of five on the grass in San Fran have gone ‘under’. The Niners defense has been playing better as of late, even though the numbers don’t support that. They have played five of the top offenses in the league – Arizona, Seattle, the Giants, New Orleans, and Philadelphia – and have gotten demolished. But St. Louis’ offense is more their speed. The Rams gave up 47 points last week and I’m sure their coaches were all over them this week. I expect a more inspired effort.
$600.00 #407 Houston (+8.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m, Sunday, Nov. 16)
I think the Colts are primed for a letdown this weekend after a big win against the Steelers. It’s not that I don’t think they can beat the Texans, it’s that I think this number is too large for them to cover with their defense. Houston was dominating the Colts just a few weekends ago in Texas before blowing their late lead. The Colts are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.
$3000.00 ‘Over’ 38.5 Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
The general consensus is that these are two strong defenses and that this should be a grind-it-out game. However, the numbers suggest something different. Minnesota has averaged a total of 47.2 points per game overall and on the road they are averaging a total of 59.7 points per game. Basically, the Vikings’ defense is not nearly as strong as the public thinks it is. Five of their last six games have gone ‘over’, and most of them have gone ‘over’ by at least 10 points. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense is much better than its numbers suggest as well. Their problems have been in the red zone. But I think that Jon Gruden put in extra time and extra work on this aspect of their game during the bye week and I expect to see some new wrinkles. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay and 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five games of a week or rest and is 16-5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven games after an ATS loss.
TEASER
HOU+18.5
WASH+11
SF UNDER 54...........................$480/$400
We have ridden the Falcons a lot this year and I just do not trust this Denver defense to be able to stop the Atlanta ground game. The Falcons are riding some momentum off a big win at home over New Orleans last week. Their secondary played well against Drew Brees and the Saints high-powered passing attack and I think they can do the same against Jay Cutler and Co. Cutler has been making shaky decisions with the ball and I just don’t think that this Broncos team is as good as their record indicates. Denver is 4-12 ATS on the road and is 8-24-1 ATS in its last 33 overall.
$2000.00 #428 Washington (+1.5) over Dallas (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
Even out of a bye week the Cowboys are still overrated. I think that there are some fundamental issues with Dallas that can’t be fixed in an extra week and I don’t think they should be favored on the road here. The underdog is 20-6 ATS in this series, the home team is 5-1 SU, and the Redskins are 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series. This is a rivalry series where the underdog and the home team have performed very well. Here we are backing a home dog. I think it’s great value.
$800.00 ‘Under’ 44.5 St. Louis at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
Four straight in this series have stayed under the total and four of five on the grass in San Fran have gone ‘under’. The Niners defense has been playing better as of late, even though the numbers don’t support that. They have played five of the top offenses in the league – Arizona, Seattle, the Giants, New Orleans, and Philadelphia – and have gotten demolished. But St. Louis’ offense is more their speed. The Rams gave up 47 points last week and I’m sure their coaches were all over them this week. I expect a more inspired effort.
$600.00 #407 Houston (+8.5) over Indianapolis (1 p.m, Sunday, Nov. 16)
I think the Colts are primed for a letdown this weekend after a big win against the Steelers. It’s not that I don’t think they can beat the Texans, it’s that I think this number is too large for them to cover with their defense. Houston was dominating the Colts just a few weekends ago in Texas before blowing their late lead. The Colts are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 divisional games.
$3000.00 ‘Over’ 38.5 Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 16)
The general consensus is that these are two strong defenses and that this should be a grind-it-out game. However, the numbers suggest something different. Minnesota has averaged a total of 47.2 points per game overall and on the road they are averaging a total of 59.7 points per game. Basically, the Vikings’ defense is not nearly as strong as the public thinks it is. Five of their last six games have gone ‘over’, and most of them have gone ‘over’ by at least 10 points. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s offense is much better than its numbers suggest as well. Their problems have been in the red zone. But I think that Jon Gruden put in extra time and extra work on this aspect of their game during the bye week and I expect to see some new wrinkles. The ‘over’ is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay and 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in Tampa’s last five games of a week or rest and is 16-5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven games after an ATS loss.
TEASER
HOU+18.5
WASH+11
SF UNDER 54...........................$480/$400
Yup you got it...the number for NFL is always 325 where as in college it always changes.
Here is the record for someone who wanted it above:
NFL: YTD 19-14 with value of +6
College: YTD 69-55 with value of +6
but for college I only post plays with a +17 value since if you were to play the +6 and above you will have 30 plays per week.
Over/Under with value of +17 or more: YTD 13-6
Over/Under with value of ONLY +20 or more: YTD 7-3 (there a 4 plays this week all over +20)
