[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW TO CREATE YOUR 2009 NFL POWER RATINGS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This week I'm going to run through important keys for putting together accurate Power Ratings for both pro and college football. We'll talk about the NFL today since we're in the midst of the Exhibition season and the league is fresh on your mind. This article will stay up for a few days, then I'll come back with strategies for college football. Those games will be here before you know it![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Many of you probably already have tentative numbers put together. Or, at the very least, you remember where everyone stood last year and you're trying to pick Preseason games based on that. It's a start...but, at this point, you REALLY need to put together numbers you can trust. Why go from memory when you can have solid ratings that are capable of beating the betting lines in Nevada?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's what you should be doing now that football is on your brain getting full attention.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Buffalo acquired Terrell Owens, which should help another offense that's been dormant for a long time. I'm less optimistic here because the Bills still need somebody to get TO the ball...and because Owens is known for making things worse after he makes things better. I could at least see considering a temporary slight movement upward in the ratings if Owens is healthy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yup, that's about it! You were probably expected advice about DRAMATIC changes in the ratings. That's not what pro football analysis is all about. In fact, it's the opposite! In the NFL, parity is such a reality that teams just don't make big jumps from one year to the next with their starting lineups UNLESS injuries caused a collapse the year before. You've got a hunk of 5-11 type teams...a big hunk of 8-8 type teams...and a hunk of 11-5 type teams. Anyone can beat anyone else on any given day. The scale from top to bottom isn't that big...particularly compared to other sports (especially the college sports and pro basketball). [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Getting your ratings in order is actually all about making sure you're NOT doing anything too extreme. You want teams packed relatively close together. When injuries make things extreme later on, you'll adjust accordingly. If a team goes in the tank at midseason because the coach has lost them...knock a field goal or more from the number WHEN IT HAPPENS. In August, you're looking at everybody playing at full strength, and a competitive tightly bunched league where not much is going to change from the prior season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The draft? How many college players are good enough to have an immediate impact when they step up in class? It occasionally happens. Your ratings are better off assuming it's NOT going to happen...then you can adjust if a new running back or wide receiver starts making plays. Maybe it's easier for rookie quarterbacks to thrive now than it used to be. Make the rookie prove to you he's going to be okay before you pencil it in. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oh, one last thing. Once you have numbers you're happy with based on your own thoughts and analysis...compare them to the opening lines for Week One that have already been posted in Nevada and offshore. The numbers on the board represent the opinions of oddsmakers AND sharps...because there's been enough time for the lines to get bet into position. If you're WAY off with a team or two...consider shading your rankings in the direction of the market. Maybe you're smarter than the market (probably not, but a few bettors have +EV edges). You'll probably find that you're in line with the experts on most teams (remember to add in 3 points for home field advantage). If there are clear differences, see if you can figure out what caused it...and assume that getting closer to the market is better than being far away from the market at this point in the season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bet your edges...but have respect for the combined knowledge of oddsmakers and sharps that have created those Week One lines. [/FONT]
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]HOW TO CREATE YOUR 2009 NFL POWER RATINGS[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This week I'm going to run through important keys for putting together accurate Power Ratings for both pro and college football. We'll talk about the NFL today since we're in the midst of the Exhibition season and the league is fresh on your mind. This article will stay up for a few days, then I'll come back with strategies for college football. Those games will be here before you know it![/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Many of you probably already have tentative numbers put together. Or, at the very least, you remember where everyone stood last year and you're trying to pick Preseason games based on that. It's a start...but, at this point, you REALLY need to put together numbers you can trust. Why go from memory when you can have solid ratings that are capable of beating the betting lines in Nevada?[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Here's what you should be doing now that football is on your brain getting full attention.[/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]First, go find last year's final ratings. Ideally, these will be your starting point for adjustments. If you didn't keep numbers last year, find a set of respected ratings on the internet. You can use the USA Today computer ratings at their website. Other football related sites have popped up with their own methodologies as well. It doesn't matter to me which ones you use to start with. You'll be making adjustments on your own that will get things to the right place this year. I just believe it's important to have a starting point rather than beginning from scratch. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Next, and this is arguably the most important thing you do, review last season's injury situation at the quarterback position. If that guy is healthy this year...add at least a field goal to the rating! Carson Palmer was useless for Cincinnati last year because of injuries. If he looks good to you in his Preseason action...you can assume the Bengals won't be as helpless this year. The Seattle Seahawks were ravaged by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. They finished 4-12 and missed the playoffs by a mile. Since they're typically a playoff caliber team, you have to assume that a healthy squad will be better. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We now move to head coaching changes. I've found over the years that coaching changes tend to bring teams toward the middle. When BAD teams make a change, they usually get better just because things were already so awful to begin with. I'd consider adding at least one point to any bad team that made a coaching change. In a lot of cases I'll add two points. [/FONT]
- [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Finally, trades. I think the public and the media generally overreact to trades. There's so much depth of talent in this sport that it's very difficult for one guy to have a huge impact. Typically, you're better off NOT making any adjustments, then betting against any team that gets a lot of hype because they traded for a name player. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Buffalo acquired Terrell Owens, which should help another offense that's been dormant for a long time. I'm less optimistic here because the Bills still need somebody to get TO the ball...and because Owens is known for making things worse after he makes things better. I could at least see considering a temporary slight movement upward in the ratings if Owens is healthy. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Yup, that's about it! You were probably expected advice about DRAMATIC changes in the ratings. That's not what pro football analysis is all about. In fact, it's the opposite! In the NFL, parity is such a reality that teams just don't make big jumps from one year to the next with their starting lineups UNLESS injuries caused a collapse the year before. You've got a hunk of 5-11 type teams...a big hunk of 8-8 type teams...and a hunk of 11-5 type teams. Anyone can beat anyone else on any given day. The scale from top to bottom isn't that big...particularly compared to other sports (especially the college sports and pro basketball). [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Getting your ratings in order is actually all about making sure you're NOT doing anything too extreme. You want teams packed relatively close together. When injuries make things extreme later on, you'll adjust accordingly. If a team goes in the tank at midseason because the coach has lost them...knock a field goal or more from the number WHEN IT HAPPENS. In August, you're looking at everybody playing at full strength, and a competitive tightly bunched league where not much is going to change from the prior season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The draft? How many college players are good enough to have an immediate impact when they step up in class? It occasionally happens. Your ratings are better off assuming it's NOT going to happen...then you can adjust if a new running back or wide receiver starts making plays. Maybe it's easier for rookie quarterbacks to thrive now than it used to be. Make the rookie prove to you he's going to be okay before you pencil it in. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Oh, one last thing. Once you have numbers you're happy with based on your own thoughts and analysis...compare them to the opening lines for Week One that have already been posted in Nevada and offshore. The numbers on the board represent the opinions of oddsmakers AND sharps...because there's been enough time for the lines to get bet into position. If you're WAY off with a team or two...consider shading your rankings in the direction of the market. Maybe you're smarter than the market (probably not, but a few bettors have +EV edges). You'll probably find that you're in line with the experts on most teams (remember to add in 3 points for home field advantage). If there are clear differences, see if you can figure out what caused it...and assume that getting closer to the market is better than being far away from the market at this point in the season. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bet your edges...but have respect for the combined knowledge of oddsmakers and sharps that have created those Week One lines. [/FONT]
