I'm going to hijack the thread b/c it's Christmas and no one should yell at me, LOL.
I'm going to win my Hilton-based work football pool as I have 48.5 points and a 3 point lead with these final 5 games to play.
so, here is my 5 winners for week 17:
Houston -3 over Chicago (better team at home, what more can I say?)
49ers -3 over Washington (I'll take the home team playing lights out for Singletary over a disinterested Skins team very far away from home)
Miami +2.5 over Jets (I have the better team as a dog, sweet irony coming with Pennington -this game will be great - also Jets will have nothing to play for as they will be eliminated after Patriots beat the Bills).
Dallas +1.5 over Philly (Philly has nothing to play for after Tampa beats Oakland so I'll take the motivated team as a dog).
Kansas City +3 over Bengals (KC has played better than their 2-13 record, I'll take the points).
Happy New Year! Ship me the money!!!!
I'm going to win my Hilton-based work football pool as I have 48.5 points and a 3 point lead with these final 5 games to play.
so, here is my 5 winners for week 17:
Houston -3 over Chicago (better team at home, what more can I say?)
49ers -3 over Washington (I'll take the home team playing lights out for Singletary over a disinterested Skins team very far away from home)
Miami +2.5 over Jets (I have the better team as a dog, sweet irony coming with Pennington -this game will be great - also Jets will have nothing to play for as they will be eliminated after Patriots beat the Bills).
Dallas +1.5 over Philly (Philly has nothing to play for after Tampa beats Oakland so I'll take the motivated team as a dog).
Kansas City +3 over Bengals (KC has played better than their 2-13 record, I'll take the points).
Happy New Year! Ship me the money!!!!
lite on the last week of the regseason!
MY PLAYS...WRITE-UPS LATER
PHI-1.5.............................$2000.00
SD 1ST HALF -6..................$600.00
ARI-6.................................$800.00
MIA M/L+125.......................$600.00
WASH M/L +137...................$500.00
TEASER
PHI+8.5
MIA+13
WASH +13.............................$300.00
I will be in and out all day...party at my place with a lot of food and drinks....so when I need a break I will be back.
have a great friday
Ace-Ace
MY PLAYS...WRITE-UPS LATER
PHI-1.5.............................$2000.00
SD 1ST HALF -6..................$600.00
ARI-6.................................$800.00
MIA M/L+125.......................$600.00
WASH M/L +137...................$500.00
TEASER
PHI+8.5
MIA+13
WASH +13.............................$300.00
I will be in and out all day...party at my place with a lot of food and drinks....so when I need a break I will be back.
have a great friday
Ace-Ace
Write-ups
Take #306 Philadelphia (-1) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
Dallas has been an underachiever here and I think that they are going to get blown out in Philadelphia. After a little hiccup in Washington last week I think the Eagles come back with a sharp effort. In fact, I really think that last week they were already looking forward to the Cowboys game. You know that the Eagles always want to stick it to T.O. and I think that McNabb and Reid will have the team ready here. Marion Barber might not be able to go and Tony Romo has been awful in December. The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games and they just do not play well when the chips are down. So we're putting our chips on the Eagles.
FIRST HALF: Take #332 San Diego (-6) over Denver (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
This is a play on the first half only. I think that the Chargers are going to come out on fire and that they are going to get revenge for the game that they had stolen from them earlier in the year at Denver. I like the first half play because I think that Denver's passing offense makes them a team that can get in the back door of this number for the game. But I think San Diego gets an early lead and is up two touchdowns at the break.
Take #328 Arizona (-6) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
Arizona has mailed it in since they clinched a playoff berth but I think that Ken Whisenhunt is going to prepare his team this week like it is a playoff game. Arizona will be hosting a game next week and he is going to want to get them some momentum and make sure his offense is sharp. Seattle won a tough, emotional game at home last week in Mike Holmgren's final game. I think this team already has its bags packed and won't have much interest in putting up a fight here.
Take #323 Miami (+3) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
I think that we are getting points with the better team here. The Jets are in a tailspin and have lost three of their last four games. In fact, their one win was a lucky victory that Buffalo handed to them or else they would have lost four straight. If New England wins at Buffalo at 1 p.m., and I think that will happen, then the Jets know they can't go to the playoffs. If that is the case I think that Eric Mangini would rather see the Dolphins go to the playoffs than the hated Patriots and I could see him throwing this game just to spite Bill Belichick. You watch.
Take #329 Washington (+3) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
Everyone is jumping on the 49ers bandwagon but I think that they are a much better underdog than they are a favorite. The NFC East has been the toughest division in football and none of its teams will have a losing record. I think that the Redskins are still going to be playing hard and that Jim Zorn knows he's still coaching for his job. Washington is a veteran team and they don't want to lose to anyone. San Fran is just 2-6 ATS against the NFC and they were outgained by almost 100 yards by a bad St. Louis team last week. Washington wins this one.
Take #306 Philadelphia (-1) over Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
Dallas has been an underachiever here and I think that they are going to get blown out in Philadelphia. After a little hiccup in Washington last week I think the Eagles come back with a sharp effort. In fact, I really think that last week they were already looking forward to the Cowboys game. You know that the Eagles always want to stick it to T.O. and I think that McNabb and Reid will have the team ready here. Marion Barber might not be able to go and Tony Romo has been awful in December. The Cowboys are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games and they just do not play well when the chips are down. So we're putting our chips on the Eagles.
FIRST HALF: Take #332 San Diego (-6) over Denver (8 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
This is a play on the first half only. I think that the Chargers are going to come out on fire and that they are going to get revenge for the game that they had stolen from them earlier in the year at Denver. I like the first half play because I think that Denver's passing offense makes them a team that can get in the back door of this number for the game. But I think San Diego gets an early lead and is up two touchdowns at the break.
Take #328 Arizona (-6) over Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
Arizona has mailed it in since they clinched a playoff berth but I think that Ken Whisenhunt is going to prepare his team this week like it is a playoff game. Arizona will be hosting a game next week and he is going to want to get them some momentum and make sure his offense is sharp. Seattle won a tough, emotional game at home last week in Mike Holmgren's final game. I think this team already has its bags packed and won't have much interest in putting up a fight here.
Take #323 Miami (+3) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
I think that we are getting points with the better team here. The Jets are in a tailspin and have lost three of their last four games. In fact, their one win was a lucky victory that Buffalo handed to them or else they would have lost four straight. If New England wins at Buffalo at 1 p.m., and I think that will happen, then the Jets know they can't go to the playoffs. If that is the case I think that Eric Mangini would rather see the Dolphins go to the playoffs than the hated Patriots and I could see him throwing this game just to spite Bill Belichick. You watch.
Take #329 Washington (+3) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 28)
Everyone is jumping on the 49ers bandwagon but I think that they are a much better underdog than they are a favorite. The NFC East has been the toughest division in football and none of its teams will have a losing record. I think that the Redskins are still going to be playing hard and that Jim Zorn knows he's still coaching for his job. Washington is a veteran team and they don't want to lose to anyone. San Fran is just 2-6 ATS against the NFC and they were outgained by almost 100 yards by a bad St. Louis team last week. Washington wins this one.
Ace,
Respect your posts and have been a "silent follower" for 3 years now. This is the 1st time that I have ever really 2nd guessed an investment play...I guess I am just confused to your reasoning for making PHILADELPHIA an investment play and not an action play, or at least why you are not waiting until right before kick-off to decide if it is an investment...I feel that by making Philadelphia an investment play prior to the results of the Tampa Bay game you are making a BIG mistake...and it's not that I don't think PHILLY could do it, it's just that if TAMPA BAY wins, exactly how sure are you that PHILLY will show up to play? Let's just say that Tampa Bay wins in dramatic last second fashion...can you imagine the damage that would do to PHILLY's psyche? The honest answer is no, and this is why I feel it is a bit wreckless to have PHILLY as an investment play as opposed to an action...thanks again, and no disrespect intended...love your stuff and appreciate your time/work.
I don't usually comment about your picks Ace but when I do, I'm usually right.
I think your Philly play is a mistake given that they will be out of the playoffs by the time this game starts. I'm a bit surprised that this is your only investment on the week but BOL to you, sir.
Also, I think you are giving the Skins to much credit for this West Coast trip but you are not making a big play on it so it doesn't really matter.
I think your Philly play is a mistake given that they will be out of the playoffs by the time this game starts. I'm a bit surprised that this is your only investment on the week but BOL to you, sir.
Also, I think you are giving the Skins to much credit for this West Coast trip but you are not making a big play on it so it doesn't really matter.
I don't necessarily agree or disagree with the play, but your reasoning for questioning it isn't really sound. These teams are huge rivals and hate each other. Doesn't matter if Philly is in it or not, they will do whatever they can to make sure Dallas doesn't get in. It doesn't mean they will win, but their motivation will be strong regardless especially in front of their home crowd.
Breakdown of my PHI bet
1. out of all this weeks picks this game will mean a lot to both teams..
2. the line is only -1.5 a great value for a home team in this spot....home team have done well from week 14-16 .....record 28-20...this happen each year after week 12...just took two weeks more to come into play
3. "myline" on this game Phi -13.5...well over some key prime numbers
3.....7....10....and 13
4. lineoff dal-42 vs phi +19...............................edge PHI
never been a team getting into the superbowl with a minus!!!
5. time....dal-3 vs PHi +18.................................edge PHI
this shows how a team plays
6. PLT.....dal 931 yards vs Phi 723 yards...............edge PHI
this is two points of myline on phi...most of
the time its only a 1/2 a point
7 T/O ...Dal 30 vs Phi 27..................................small edge to PHI
home for this week should be 3 points...in my line I only use 2 points
with one more point my line goes to PHI-14.5...over one more prime number! "14"
if you guy know how I pick...I could this not be a Investment play!
only one that all 4 stats go to PHI
atl does also ...but to high a point spead.
I stand on that play
Ace-Ace
1. out of all this weeks picks this game will mean a lot to both teams..
2. the line is only -1.5 a great value for a home team in this spot....home team have done well from week 14-16 .....record 28-20...this happen each year after week 12...just took two weeks more to come into play
3. "myline" on this game Phi -13.5...well over some key prime numbers
3.....7....10....and 13
4. lineoff dal-42 vs phi +19...............................edge PHI
never been a team getting into the superbowl with a minus!!!
5. time....dal-3 vs PHi +18.................................edge PHI
this shows how a team plays
6. PLT.....dal 931 yards vs Phi 723 yards...............edge PHI
this is two points of myline on phi...most of
the time its only a 1/2 a point
7 T/O ...Dal 30 vs Phi 27..................................small edge to PHI
home for this week should be 3 points...in my line I only use 2 points
with one more point my line goes to PHI-14.5...over one more prime number! "14"
if you guy know how I pick...I could this not be a Investment play!
only one that all 4 stats go to PHI
atl does also ...but to high a point spead.
I stand on that play
Ace-Ace
<TABLE id=gridtable><TBODY><TR id=e150443 ondblclick=highlightRow(this) style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" onclick="testHit('e150443', event)"><TD id=score width=50>12/28
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>305 Dallas Cowboys
306 Philadelphia Eagles
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>23446
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
this play is against the public play
Also a key is Philly is eliminated if Tampa beat the Raiders in 1:00 game
Dallas will lay back alittle...and Phi will play there superbowl game against dall than....this is how I read it.
DALLAS (9 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 6 - 1) - 12/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 125-88 ATS (+28.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Dallas
4:15P
</TD><TD id=team width=135>305 Dallas Cowboys
306 Philadelphia Eagles
</TD><TD id=bets width=45>23446
</TD><TD id=spreadpct style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccff66" width=40>71%
29%
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
this play is against the public play
Also a key is Philly is eliminated if Tampa beat the Raiders in 1:00 game
Dallas will lay back alittle...and Phi will play there superbowl game against dall than....this is how I read it.
DALLAS (9 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 6 - 1) - 12/28/2008, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 125-88 ATS (+28.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Philadelphia is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Dallas
must read for those that bet this week in NFL...from my friend Nick....Make should you rean the PHI vs Dal game...My feeling to a tee:aktion033
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We've come to our final regular season edition of this feature. You long timers know that we'll continue all the way through the NFL playoffs with this special weekend article. The smaller schedules allow for expanded coverage with four games in each of the first two weeks, then two games on Championship Weekend, and one blockbuster edition for the Super Bowl. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are several games this week that the sharps have largely left alone because the lines were so high at the opener. Professional wagerers tend not to lay big numbers in the NFL unless they're taking position to buy back on the dog later. There are a lot of dogs with nothing to play for this week...which means sharps are less likely to get involved in any way in the game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's run through everything in rotation order so you're up-to-date...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OAKLAND AT TAMPA BAY: There was a little underdog action on Oakland +13½ right at the opener. Tampa Bay hasn't played very well in recent weeks. Oakland has covered a couple of spreads. That inspired a few guys to take the points at what they considered to be a very inflated line. Most people passed the game. Some dog lovers in general preferred to wait to see if the public took the line to -14 or higher. Through the week, that wasn't happening. It might Sunday morning. Note that this is a "bad body clock" game for the Raiders. Some guys are leaving the dog alone for that reason. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The line here has jumped from Green Bay -7½ all the way up to -10 or so. The oddsmakers were expecting the sharps to hit Detroit because everyone knows the Lions are trying to avoid an 0-16 season. Instead...all of the early money was on the Packers! I do think we'll see some dog money hit this weekend. Maybe they were taking early positions and creating their own middle with heavy action. I have to say that what I heard about this game from guys I talked to wasn't matching the money. I always have to pay closer attention when that happens. The total dropped from 45 down to 43...and will come down even more if the weather is going to be an issue. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: The sharps have hit Philadelphia pretty hard here, driving an opener of pick-em up to Philly -2. It didn't make it all the way to a field goal. Maybe it should have based on the money, but sportsbooks didn't want to open up a can of worms by creating a middle with a -3 on the end. Dallas has been shaky in recent weeks, particularly against good teams. Tony Romo is hard to trust in a close game based on what we've seen against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. He didn't look all that great in the win at Washington either. Sharps are counting on a full effort from the Eagles even though a playoff berth is now a longshot. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA: What would this line be in a normal regular season spot? The Giants would be a small road favorite at least. Because Minnesota needs the game badly, and the Giants don't need it at all, the Vikings opened at -6½. Sharps bet it up a half a point to -7 on the theory that the public would line up on the Vikings over the weekend. Sharps can by back and set up a middle on game day should the number make it to 7½, 8, or more. My read on the money wasn't support for Minnesota, but rather position taking for that middle possibility. Sharps don't like taking teams with nothing to play for, particularly one that may rest its starters. Several non-playoff teams actually WON'T rest their starters...so you still may get a good game out of them. Top seeds are better served by playing backups. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHICAGO AT HOUSTON: Big move from the sharps here on Houston, as the Texans went from +1½ all the way to -3! That's a huge adjustment because it went all the way to a field goal and didn't bounce back down. Note that Philly stopped at -2 in a similar move at home against Dallas. The sharps think Houston will be very motivated to avoid a losing record with a win. Chicago was lucky to win Monday Night, and will have trouble winning a shootout on the road here. You don't often see this much affection for a non-playoff team. Houston garnered serious support at anything below a field goal. The total has fallen from 48 to 46½, which I understand is a math play from the numbers guys. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line opened at a field goal, and is still technically a field goal even though it's still at -3. The juice has changed...with Carolina being -115 at first if you wanted them at -3. So much money has come in on New Orleans that you now have to lay extra vigorish to get the Saints and the points. Sharps are impressed with how Carolina has closed the season...but they see this as a tough spot off that brutal Sunday Night meltdown against the Giants. New Orleans played great at Detroit last week, and should still be trying at home against a divisional rival even if the playoffs aren't in play. Great message sending spot for the Saints...and that's how the early sharp bettors have seen it. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ST. LOUIS AT ATLANTA: The total has come down from 46 to 44...apparently on the assumption that Atlanta will get a lead then run out the clock against a no-show opponent. Atlanta will win the NFC South with a victory here and a Carolina loss in New Orleans. That's entirely possible. It's that scenario that's kept many sharps off the two-touchdown underdog Rams...and sharps love taking two-touchdown underdogs! Only sharp action here so far has been on the Under. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI: Not much interest here. It's a meaningless game with bad teams. The total shot up from 37½ to 38½ because of the style Kansas City has been playing lately. The defense looks tired...and the offense is scoring enough to create shootouts. If the weather isn't bad, that total will hold. If it is, we might see it drop back to the opener. Note that 38 is one of the most common Vegas and Reno totals...so crossing the 38 is actually a very bid deal. A jump from 37½ to 38½ represents serious action on a total. Nothing happening on the team side yet except for a few flyers on the dog. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore got hit at the opener of -11½, driving it up to -12½. I see this as position taking for the most part. A lot of the "must win" teams were around -14 or so. Baltimore looked cheap in comparison. The sharps bet the favorite figuring the public will see it the same way and drive the line up to two-touchdowns. Worth taking a shot at a middle if nothing else. And...Jacksonville's been playing so badly lately that the original bettors may just let Baltimore -11½ ride. I think the total will only get hit if weather is a factor. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: There was a big early move here from pick-em to Tennessee -3. Of course, if this were a playoff game that wouldn't have happened. Nothing is at stake for either team. Why all the love for Tennessee? The sharps like Tennessee's backups better than Indy's (the Colts lack of depth is the main reason they've played so many close games this year). Also, you've probably read that Vince Young is going to see a lot of action in this game. He may be the only guy on the field with something to prove. Sharps are betting on that edge being meaningful. They stopped investing when the line hit a field goal though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Steeler money came in when it was confirmed that Bruce Gradkowski would get the start for the Browns. It's very hard to score on Pittsburgh in the best of times. How can a rusty fourth-stringer put any points on the board? It will only happen if the Steelers rest a lot of starters. That could happen with nothing at stake in the game. I was a little surprised the line flew past -10 so quickly (-9 to -11). Some of that's position taking of course. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MIAMI AT NY JETS: A tentative opener of New York -2½ moved to -3 very quickly. It's largely sat there since. The Jets have been slumping lately, and Brett Favre's shoulder is nowhere near 100%. You'd think that would be enough to put the sharps on the dog. Not yet. Miami isn't a cold weather team...and many sharps believe they were lucky to get past lowly Kansas City last week. If you have to get lucky at Kansas City, you're not a sure thing to win a big game on the road against a veteran quarterback. I think the sharps will eventually be rooting for the Dolphins. Many are waiting to see if the public's affection for Favre creates any additional value. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The total has come down from 43 to 41½, which is about all that's happened so far. Weather could be a factor. Even if it's not...New England may have more trouble here than normal putting up points. They're not facing a lousy team that doesn't care this week. They're facing a divisional rival who does! I think this is another game where the sharps will be rooting for the dog, but are waiting until game day to see if they can get better value. There's little reason to play a dog early this week, particularly in a high profile game. The public just went a few days with hardly any football! They'll be betting hand over fist on Sunday...and that usually means big volume coming in on favorites. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: This one was interesting. Arizona was -3½, as oddsmakers thought the hook might be the right spot to deep interest at a minimum. Arizona hasn't been playing well enough to lay more than a field goal. Seattle's been on a nice run, but is still at a talent and travel disadvantage. Instead of a pass, oddsmakers saw the sharps pound Arizona. The line moved from 3½ to 4½ to 5½ and all the way to -6½! It stopped before the TD, which means oddsmakers are really afraid of setting up a monster middle that includes the -7 as one of the sides. The public may leave this game alone because nothing's at stake. Looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for Mike Holmgren in his Seattle finale. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Nothing happening here so far at all. Looks like something near San Francisco -3 and 37 will still be hanging at kickoff unless some news breaks. This one won't be on the public's radar. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DENVER AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego got hit hard at -7½, which has moved the line to -9 as I write this. That may not seem like a big move. Just remember the rule of thumb around the critical numbers. If the sharps liked the dog, they'd have taken +7½ right away because they were getting more than a TD. Just the line STAYING at -7½ would have signaled affection for the Chargers. The line didn't stay put, it went to 8 and 8½ (ideal range for two-team teasers) and all the way to -9. Some places are showing -9½. The sharps liked the resurgent Chargers here, and they knew the public would too. Minus 7½ was the best it was going to get. We may see -10 or higher by kickoff of this Sunday Night game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DIRECT FROM NEVADA
WITH NICK BOGDANOVICH[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WHAT THE SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT THIS WEEKEND'S NFL GAMES[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]We've come to our final regular season edition of this feature. You long timers know that we'll continue all the way through the NFL playoffs with this special weekend article. The smaller schedules allow for expanded coverage with four games in each of the first two weeks, then two games on Championship Weekend, and one blockbuster edition for the Super Bowl. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]There are several games this week that the sharps have largely left alone because the lines were so high at the opener. Professional wagerers tend not to lay big numbers in the NFL unless they're taking position to buy back on the dog later. There are a lot of dogs with nothing to play for this week...which means sharps are less likely to get involved in any way in the game. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Let's run through everything in rotation order so you're up-to-date...[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OAKLAND AT TAMPA BAY: There was a little underdog action on Oakland +13½ right at the opener. Tampa Bay hasn't played very well in recent weeks. Oakland has covered a couple of spreads. That inspired a few guys to take the points at what they considered to be a very inflated line. Most people passed the game. Some dog lovers in general preferred to wait to see if the public took the line to -14 or higher. Through the week, that wasn't happening. It might Sunday morning. Note that this is a "bad body clock" game for the Raiders. Some guys are leaving the dog alone for that reason. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DETROIT AT GREEN BAY: The line here has jumped from Green Bay -7½ all the way up to -10 or so. The oddsmakers were expecting the sharps to hit Detroit because everyone knows the Lions are trying to avoid an 0-16 season. Instead...all of the early money was on the Packers! I do think we'll see some dog money hit this weekend. Maybe they were taking early positions and creating their own middle with heavy action. I have to say that what I heard about this game from guys I talked to wasn't matching the money. I always have to pay closer attention when that happens. The total dropped from 45 down to 43...and will come down even more if the weather is going to be an issue. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA: The sharps have hit Philadelphia pretty hard here, driving an opener of pick-em up to Philly -2. It didn't make it all the way to a field goal. Maybe it should have based on the money, but sportsbooks didn't want to open up a can of worms by creating a middle with a -3 on the end. Dallas has been shaky in recent weeks, particularly against good teams. Tony Romo is hard to trust in a close game based on what we've seen against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. He didn't look all that great in the win at Washington either. Sharps are counting on a full effort from the Eagles even though a playoff berth is now a longshot. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NY GIANTS AT MINNESOTA: What would this line be in a normal regular season spot? The Giants would be a small road favorite at least. Because Minnesota needs the game badly, and the Giants don't need it at all, the Vikings opened at -6½. Sharps bet it up a half a point to -7 on the theory that the public would line up on the Vikings over the weekend. Sharps can by back and set up a middle on game day should the number make it to 7½, 8, or more. My read on the money wasn't support for Minnesota, but rather position taking for that middle possibility. Sharps don't like taking teams with nothing to play for, particularly one that may rest its starters. Several non-playoff teams actually WON'T rest their starters...so you still may get a good game out of them. Top seeds are better served by playing backups. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CHICAGO AT HOUSTON: Big move from the sharps here on Houston, as the Texans went from +1½ all the way to -3! That's a huge adjustment because it went all the way to a field goal and didn't bounce back down. Note that Philly stopped at -2 in a similar move at home against Dallas. The sharps think Houston will be very motivated to avoid a losing record with a win. Chicago was lucky to win Monday Night, and will have trouble winning a shootout on the road here. You don't often see this much affection for a non-playoff team. Houston garnered serious support at anything below a field goal. The total has fallen from 48 to 46½, which I understand is a math play from the numbers guys. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS: The line opened at a field goal, and is still technically a field goal even though it's still at -3. The juice has changed...with Carolina being -115 at first if you wanted them at -3. So much money has come in on New Orleans that you now have to lay extra vigorish to get the Saints and the points. Sharps are impressed with how Carolina has closed the season...but they see this as a tough spot off that brutal Sunday Night meltdown against the Giants. New Orleans played great at Detroit last week, and should still be trying at home against a divisional rival even if the playoffs aren't in play. Great message sending spot for the Saints...and that's how the early sharp bettors have seen it. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ST. LOUIS AT ATLANTA: The total has come down from 46 to 44...apparently on the assumption that Atlanta will get a lead then run out the clock against a no-show opponent. Atlanta will win the NFC South with a victory here and a Carolina loss in New Orleans. That's entirely possible. It's that scenario that's kept many sharps off the two-touchdown underdog Rams...and sharps love taking two-touchdown underdogs! Only sharp action here so far has been on the Under. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]KANSAS CITY AT CINCINNATI: Not much interest here. It's a meaningless game with bad teams. The total shot up from 37½ to 38½ because of the style Kansas City has been playing lately. The defense looks tired...and the offense is scoring enough to create shootouts. If the weather isn't bad, that total will hold. If it is, we might see it drop back to the opener. Note that 38 is one of the most common Vegas and Reno totals...so crossing the 38 is actually a very bid deal. A jump from 37½ to 38½ represents serious action on a total. Nothing happening on the team side yet except for a few flyers on the dog. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]JACKSONVILLE AT BALTIMORE: Baltimore got hit at the opener of -11½, driving it up to -12½. I see this as position taking for the most part. A lot of the "must win" teams were around -14 or so. Baltimore looked cheap in comparison. The sharps bet the favorite figuring the public will see it the same way and drive the line up to two-touchdowns. Worth taking a shot at a middle if nothing else. And...Jacksonville's been playing so badly lately that the original bettors may just let Baltimore -11½ ride. I think the total will only get hit if weather is a factor. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS: There was a big early move here from pick-em to Tennessee -3. Of course, if this were a playoff game that wouldn't have happened. Nothing is at stake for either team. Why all the love for Tennessee? The sharps like Tennessee's backups better than Indy's (the Colts lack of depth is the main reason they've played so many close games this year). Also, you've probably read that Vince Young is going to see a lot of action in this game. He may be the only guy on the field with something to prove. Sharps are betting on that edge being meaningful. They stopped investing when the line hit a field goal though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CLEVELAND AT PITTSBURGH: Steeler money came in when it was confirmed that Bruce Gradkowski would get the start for the Browns. It's very hard to score on Pittsburgh in the best of times. How can a rusty fourth-stringer put any points on the board? It will only happen if the Steelers rest a lot of starters. That could happen with nothing at stake in the game. I was a little surprised the line flew past -10 so quickly (-9 to -11). Some of that's position taking of course. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]MIAMI AT NY JETS: A tentative opener of New York -2½ moved to -3 very quickly. It's largely sat there since. The Jets have been slumping lately, and Brett Favre's shoulder is nowhere near 100%. You'd think that would be enough to put the sharps on the dog. Not yet. Miami isn't a cold weather team...and many sharps believe they were lucky to get past lowly Kansas City last week. If you have to get lucky at Kansas City, you're not a sure thing to win a big game on the road against a veteran quarterback. I think the sharps will eventually be rooting for the Dolphins. Many are waiting to see if the public's affection for Favre creates any additional value. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: The total has come down from 43 to 41½, which is about all that's happened so far. Weather could be a factor. Even if it's not...New England may have more trouble here than normal putting up points. They're not facing a lousy team that doesn't care this week. They're facing a divisional rival who does! I think this is another game where the sharps will be rooting for the dog, but are waiting until game day to see if they can get better value. There's little reason to play a dog early this week, particularly in a high profile game. The public just went a few days with hardly any football! They'll be betting hand over fist on Sunday...and that usually means big volume coming in on favorites. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SEATTLE AT ARIZONA: This one was interesting. Arizona was -3½, as oddsmakers thought the hook might be the right spot to deep interest at a minimum. Arizona hasn't been playing well enough to lay more than a field goal. Seattle's been on a nice run, but is still at a talent and travel disadvantage. Instead of a pass, oddsmakers saw the sharps pound Arizona. The line moved from 3½ to 4½ to 5½ and all the way to -6½! It stopped before the TD, which means oddsmakers are really afraid of setting up a monster middle that includes the -7 as one of the sides. The public may leave this game alone because nothing's at stake. Looks like the sportsbooks will be rooting for Mike Holmgren in his Seattle finale. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Nothing happening here so far at all. Looks like something near San Francisco -3 and 37 will still be hanging at kickoff unless some news breaks. This one won't be on the public's radar. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]DENVER AT SAN DIEGO: San Diego got hit hard at -7½, which has moved the line to -9 as I write this. That may not seem like a big move. Just remember the rule of thumb around the critical numbers. If the sharps liked the dog, they'd have taken +7½ right away because they were getting more than a TD. Just the line STAYING at -7½ would have signaled affection for the Chargers. The line didn't stay put, it went to 8 and 8½ (ideal range for two-team teasers) and all the way to -9. Some places are showing -9½. The sharps liked the resurgent Chargers here, and they knew the public would too. Minus 7½ was the best it was going to get. We may see -10 or higher by kickoff of this Sunday Night game. [/FONT]
